DAILY UPDATE: Stocks End Day Mixed

Posted on May 23, 2025 by Dr. David Edward Marcinko MBA MEd CMP™

MEDICAL EXECUTIVE-POST – TODAY’S NEWSLETTER BRIEFING

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  • Stocks wavered throughout the day as the 10-year Treasury yield rose back above 4.5%, making a convincing argument for investors to buy risk-free bonds with big yields rather than equities.
  • Yields on both 20-year and 30-year Treasuries traded above 5% after the Republican tax and spending bill passed the House, raising fears of a bigger US deficit and lower creditworthiness in the years ahead.
  • Bitcoin continued to climb last night, hitting a new record high of $111,886.41 in the wee hours of the morning before losing some ground throughout the trading session today.

CITE: https://tinyurl.com/2h47urt5

What’s up

  • Nike gained 2.30% on the news that it will begin selling its shoes on Amazon for the first time since 2019.
  • Fannie Mae popped 46.73% and Freddie Mac jumped 42.50% on President Trump’s comments that he’s seriously considering bringing the mortgage giants public.
  • Advance Auto Parts exploded 57.14% higher after better-than-feared earnings made it clear that its turnaround plan is working.
  • Urban Outfitters soared 22.84% after reporting EPS of $1.16 last quarter, far better than the $0.84 per share analysts had forecast.
  • Snowflake gained 13.47% thanks to a strong first quarter and management’s expectation that revenue will rise about 25% this quarter.

What’s down

  • Walmart lost 0.48% on the news that it will cut 1,500 jobs in a corporate restructuring.
  • Analog Devices fell 4.63% even though the semiconductor maker beat Wall Street estimates on both sales and profits last quarter.
  • Health insurance stocks took a hit on reports that the US government will conduct “aggressive” Medicare Advantage audits. Humana sank 7.58%, UnitedHealth Group fell 2.08%, and CVS Health dropped 3.06%.

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Visualize: How private equity tangled banks in a web of debt, from the Financial Times.

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STAGFLATION? Slow Growth, High Unemployment and Rising Prices.

Posted on May 21, 2025 by Dr. David Edward Marcinko MBA MEd CMP™

DEFINED

By Staff Reporters

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Stocks ticked down yesterday, ending a six-day rally after some influential CEOs—including JPMorgan Chase’s Jamie Dimon—warned that markets have grown too complacent about tariffs and potential stagflation. But it was a spectacular day for Warby Parker, which climbed more than 15% after Google announced it’s partnering with the eyewear company on Google Glass (RIP) a new smart glasses device.

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  • Stagflation is the simultaneous appearance in an economy of slow growth, high unemployment, and rising prices.
  • Once thought by economists to be impossible, stagflation has occurred repeatedly in the developed world since the 1970s.
  • Policy solutions for slow growth tend to worsen inflation, and vice versa. That makes stagflation hard to fight.

Stagflation is the combination of high inflation, stagnant economic growth, and elevated unemployment.

The term stagflation, a blend of “stagnation” and “inflation,” was popularized by British politician Lain MacLeod in the 1960s, during a period of economic distress in the United Kingdom. It gained broader recognition in the 1970s after a series of global economic shocks, particularly the 1973 oil crisis, which disrupted supply chains and led to rising prices and slowing growth. Stagflation challenges traditional economic theories, which suggest that inflation and unemployment are inversely related, as depicted by the Phillips Curve.

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According to Wikipedia, stagflation presents a policy dilemma, as measures to curb inflation—such as tightening monetary policy—can exacerbate unemployment, while policies aimed at reducing unemployment may fuel inflation.

In economic theory, there are two main explanations for stagflation: supply shocks, such as a sharp increase in oil prices, and misguided government policies that hinder industrial output while expanding the money supply too rapidly.

NOTE: A portmanteau word or part of a word made by combining the spellings and meanings of two or more other words or word parts (such as smog from smoke and fog).

MORE: https://medicalexecutivepost.com/2019/06/25/what-is-a-portmanteau/

The stagflation of the 1970s led to a re-evaluation of Keynesian economic policies and contributed to the rise of alternative economic theories, including monetarism and supply-side economics.

PHILLIPS CURVE: https://medicalexecutivepost.com/2024/10/04/about-the-phillips-curve/

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PARADOX: Warren Buffett and Berkshire Hathaway (BRK)

Posted on May 11, 2025 by Dr. David Edward Marcinko MBA MEd CMP™

By Vitaliy Katsenelson CFA

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I am back from what has become over the past two decades an annual pilgrimage to Omaha. 

What’s fascinating about this trip is that it has everything and nothing to do with Warren Buffett. The main event that draws everyone to Omaha – the Berkshire Hathaway (BRK) annual meeting – is actually the least important part. I could have watched the shareholder meeting livestreamed on YouTube from the comfort of my living room couch.

The emergence of the Berkshire phenomenon reminds me of China’s manufacturing evolution. China initially attracted capital because of its cheap labor. But over time, China took this capital and plowed it into infrastructure. Factories were built next to each other, each specializing in certain areas. A specialized ecosystem emerged. 

Today, Chinese labor is no longer cheap. It’s been replaced by automation, and now China is a powerhouse for manufacturing anything and everything.

The transformation that the BRK weekend has undergone followed a similar progression. Initially, the only way to absorb Buffett and Munger’s wisdom was to come to Omaha, as the event was not streamed. But then something interesting happened. The BRK weekend attracted people who shared the same value system, and friendships were formed. A variety of smaller events began to be scheduled throughout the same weekend across Omaha, and an equally specialized ecosystem emerged.

The shareholder meeting began to be streamed about ten years ago, but that has had no impact on attendance. This is one reason why I think Buffett is at peace with the idea of no longer presiding at the meeting – people will still come to Omaha the weekend before Mother’s Day.
The BRK weekend now features dozens of excellent events. 

I spoke at several, including an investing panel at Creighton University, alongside the wonderful Bob Robotti, a die-hard value investor who runs Robotti & Co. I’ve known Bob for years – at 72, he exhibits the same enthusiasm for stocks as someone decades younger – and this panel was an excellent example of what the BRK Omaha ecosystem has produced.

Bob and I have very different approaches to value investing. He loves cyclical businesses, while I generally shun them. Bob mentioned that he’d buy a very cheap business run by a mediocre manager, while I would not touch it with a ten-foot pole. 

There is absolutely nothing wrong with either approach; indeed, there is an important lesson in it. Your investment philosophy and process have to fit your personality and your EQ. In my case, I get nervous (and thus irrational) when I own companies run by imbeciles who don’t have either skin or soul in the game. But the great thing about the BRK weekend is that I learn from Bob every time I spend time with him. He’s a thoughtful and genuinely kind human being. 

From the outside, the BRK weekend may seem like a place where people simply want to learn how to get and stay rich. But this gathering transcends value investing and capitalism and genuinely celebrates human values. People (like me) bring their kids to this event. And just like at the main event, at the Q&A breakfast I hosted for my readers, many questions centered on life rather than investing.

My first Omaha reader meetup fit around a small restaurant table. This year, to my surprise, 450 people packed into a venue with standing-room only. I answered questions on every imaginable topic for just over two hours, and by the end I was exhausted. 

This gave me even greater admiration for Buffett, who is four decades my senior, yet still fielded questions for four solid hours. I was delighted to hear Warren give a similar answer to one I had given the day before when asked what advice he’d give to graduating students: 
“Don’t worry too much about starting salaries and be very careful who you work for because you will take on the habits of the people around you.” 

(Incidentally, we are going to host our next Q&A Breakfast on May 1, 2026. You can sign up for it here. It’s free, but I suggest you sign up early, as it fills up fast.)

I also participated (as I have for over a decade) in an investing panel at YPO (Young President Organization) in the beautiful Holland Performance Art Center with Tom Gaynor, CEO of Markel (often described as a baby Berkshire Hathaway) and Lawrence Cunningham. Lawrence authored perhaps the most important book about Buffett, The Essays of Warren Buffett, masterfully editing Warren’s annual letters into a cohesive volume. This year’s panel was one of those occasions where I found myself listening intently to my fellow panelists instead of speaking more.

Lawrence has met Greg Abel – Buffett’s designated successor – and feels optimistic about him. He’s probably right – this was one of Buffett’s most crucial decisions, which he did not make lightly. Yet I can’t imagine sitting for four hours listening to Greg Abel. I am sure he is a brilliant CEO, but he’s neither Buffett nor Munger – few individuals possess so much worldly wisdom and communicate it with such clarity and humor.

This brings me to the point of this note: the dramatic (yet not unexpected) announcement that Buffett is stepping down as CEO of BRK at the end of the year.

Before I comment on this, let me tell you a story. Imagine you have been watching a soap opera for 17 years. You arrive dutifully every year to watch every episode in person. And then you miss the last five minutes of the explosive finale before it goes off the air. This is what happened to me when Buffett announced his retirement as CEO.

A few minutes before noon, while Buffett was answering a question I’d heard before and appeared to be winding down, I suggested we slip out early for lunch to avoid the crowds. When we came back, I discovered that the meeting had gone on until 1 pm, and just before it ended, Buffett announced that he would step down at the end of the year. Seventeen years of watching Warren speak and I missed the most dramatic moment of all, followed by a five-minute standing ovation.

I think Buffett has engineered his exit brilliantly. He will still remain chairman, and even before the announcement he was not managing BRK’s day-to-day operations. As a collection of hundreds of companies that often have absolutely nothing in common with each other, BRK is already highly decentralized. Buffett’s main contribution has been capital allocation.

Giving up the CEO title while he’s still alive means Buffett has brought in his replacement in an orderly way and created a smooth transition. But I have a feeling that on January 1, 2026, when Greg Abel officially becomes CEO, nothing will really change, and Warren will continue doing what he’s been doing for as long as he can. If Buffett is able – he’ll be 95 – he’ll still drive to the office and stop by McDonald’s for a breakfast sandwich (there’s a lot of wisdom in finding pleasure in little things). His son Howard Buffett will become chairman after Warren, with his only job being to preserve the culture.
I’ve been asked what I think of BRK stock. We bought the stock during the pandemic. It has done better than I expected, in part because of the strong performance of Apple, which was BRK’s largest holding. But BRK today is an unexciting investment at its current price. In all honesty, it is a conglomerate with some good and some merely okay businesses.

As a consumer, I get a (small) glimpse into how BRK businesses are being run by visiting Dairy Queen. BRK owns DQ, and I love their soft-serve ice cream (though I only eat it when I travel). My favorite part of research!

DQ has (or maybe had) a strong brand and operates on a capital-light model as a franchisor. But most stores I have visited looked like they have been neglected and need fresh paint. To be sure, I understand the limitations of this “analysis,” and DQ overall amounts to a rounding error on BRK’s financials. But little things often reveal much about big things.

BRK’s big businesses, from what I can glean through their financials, are not particularly well managed – GEICO and BNSF (railroad) have definitely been undermanaged lately. BNSF is not nearly as efficient as its competitors that embraced precision railroading, and until recently GEICO was losing market share to Progressive. 

BRK’s reinsurance business, a significant source of BRK’s profitability, is run by the extraordinary Ajit Jain. Ajit is in his 70s and unfortunately it seems he is not in great health. Is his replacement going to shoot the lights out, like he did? We don’t know. But Ajit is probably more important to BRK today than Buffett.

BRK is not going to melt into oblivion after Buffett is gone, but its best days are behind it. As Buffett has acknowledged, just its size alone makes it very difficult for BRK to grow. Truth be told, even if Buffett were thirty years younger and continued to run BRK, I am not sure the results would be much different than what I think the future holds with Abel at the helm. 

Buffett and Charlie Munger had a tremendous impact on me as an investor and human being. I am incredibly thankful to both. I hope Warren is there next year, but, in either case, I will be.

As value investors say, “next year in Omaha”.

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DAILY UPDATE: Strong Labor Department as Stock Markets Soar Last Week but Stock and Oil Futures Drop Early Monday Morning

Posted on May 5, 2025 by Dr. David Edward Marcinko MBA MEd CMP™

MEDICAL EXECUTIVE-POST – TODAY’S NEWSLETTER BRIEFING

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Essays, Opinions and Curated News in Health Economics, Investing, Business, Management and Financial Planning for Physician Entrepreneurs and their Savvy Advisors and Consultants

“Serving Almost One Million Doctors, Financial Advisors and Medical Management Consultants Daily“

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U.S. stock futures declined after the S&P 500 notched its longest winning streak in more than 20 years last week. Dow Jones Industrial Average futures were down around 280 points, or 0.7%, as of 11 p.m. Eastern. S&P 500 futures and NASDAQ-100 futures were off about 0.8%.

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The labor market stayed strong. The US added 177,000 jobs in April, while unemployment stayed steady at 4.2%, new Labor Department data shows. That was slightly less job growth than the month before, but still more than expected, and it shows a resilient labor environment even as the president’s introduction of tariffs roiled the stock and bond markets and raised concerns about a recession. President Trump celebrated the news in a Truth Social post that once again urged the Fed to cut interest rates.

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Markets: Stocks soared like a balloon whose string a toddler couldn’t keep hold of yesterday. Unexpectedly strong jobs data for last month and reports that China is open to trade talks helped push the S&P 500 to its longest winning streak in more than 20 years (more on that later), erasing the losses from recent tariff turmoil. On its own impressive streak is Netflix, which hit an all-time high and finished its 11th day in the green for its longest positive run ever.

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Crude oil futures dropped more than 3% Sunday after OPEC+ agreed to accelerate production increases for a second straight month in June by 411K bbl/day.

U.S. WTI crude (CL1:COM) for June delivery recently traded -3.4% at $56.28/bbl and July Brent crude (CO1:COM) -3.2% at $59.34/bbl, with both front-month contracts touching their lowest levels since April 9th.

Visualize: How private equity tangled banks in a web of debt, from the Financial Times.

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DAILY UPDATE: Meta, Eli Lilly, Microsoft, Amazon, Apple and the Roaring Markets

Posted on May 2, 2025 by Dr. David Edward Marcinko MBA MEd CMP™

MEDICAL EXECUTIVE-POST – TODAY’S NEWSLETTER BRIEFING

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Essays, Opinions and Curated News in Health Economics, Investing, Business, Management and Financial Planning for Physician Entrepreneurs and their Savvy Advisors and Consultants

“Serving Almost One Million Doctors, Financial Advisors and Medical Management Consultants Daily“

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Meta Platforms jumped 4.23% after the big tech giant reported that its advertising revenue came in at $41.39 billion, beating analyst projections of $40.44 billion, thanks to higher ad price growth than expected. Daily active users rose to 3.43 billion, up from 3.35 billion last quarter, while nearly 1 billion people use its digital AI assistant every month. Management expects Q2 sales to come in between $42.5 billion and $45.5 billion, in-line with analyst forecasts of $44.03 billion.

  • EPS: $6.43 per share, crushing estimates of $5.28
  • Revenue: $42.31 billion, above the $41.10 expected

Microsoft leaped 7.63% after reporting its profit jumped a staggering 18% from a year earlier. That wasn’t the only good news: Revenue from Microsoft’s Azure cloud software grew 33% year over year, higher than the 31% expected by analysts. But perhaps the best news of all was management’s upbeat guidance—Microsoft projected revenue between $73.15 billion and $74.25 billion for the current quarter, well above expectations of $72.26 billion.

  • EPS: $3.46 per share, beating forecasts of $3.22
  • Revenue: $70.07 billion, above the $68.42 billion projected

Eli Lilly dropped 11.66% today, despite the fact that the pharmaceutical giant reported that sales skyrocketed 45% year over year thanks to its lucrative GLP-1 drugs, Zepbound and Mounjaro. Two things spooked investors today: The company lowered its profit outlook well below its preview estimate due its acquisition of a cancer drug from Scorpion Therapeutics, and CVS Health dropped Zepbound from its preferred drug list in lieu of arch-rival Novo Nordisk’s Wegovy this morning.—LB

  • EPS: $3.34 adjusted, beating the $3.02 expected
  • Revenue: $12.73 billion, compared to the $12.67 projected

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🟢 What’s up

  • Kohls popped 7.76% after the retailer fired its brand-new CEO for unethical behavior.
  • CVS Health not only beat earnings expectations but raised its fiscal guidance, pushing shares of the pharmacy chain up 4.11%.
  • Wayfair rose 3.65% on surprisingly strong earnings for an online furniture seller that analysts were convinced would be hit hard by tariffs.
  • Roblox gained 2.91% as people checked out of reality and hit the metaverse in higher numbers than ever.
  • CoreWeave popped 7.31% thanks to key customer Microsoft’s strong capex guidance.
  • Carrier Global climbed 11.61% after the air conditioning company boosted its fiscal forecast. Turns out everyone needs AC regardless of economic uncertainty.
  • People also need straight teeth: Dental products manufacturer Align Technology rose 1.98% on solid earnings.
  • Quanta Services gained 9.99% after the construction engineering company beat Wall Street estimates on both the top and bottom line.

What’s down

  • Qualcomm may have beaten earnings expectations, but shares fell 8.92% after investors were disappointed by the chipmaker’s lower guidance.
  • GM was in the same boat: Earnings beat forecasts, but poor guidance and warnings that tariffs could cost the company up to $5 billion this year pushed shares 0.42% lower.
  • Robinhood Markets enjoyed a 50% increase in revenue last quarter as traders played the volatile market, but the stock still sank 5.07%.
  • Moderna fell 5.29% after the vaccine maker missed revenue expectations and said it’s planning another $1.5 billion in cost cuts.
  • Church & Dwight, maker of household goods like Arm & Hammer Baking Soda, missed revenue forecasts last quarter and sank 6.87%.
  • Becton Dickinson & Co. lost 18.13% after the medical device maker warned of the adverse effects of, what else, tariffs.

CITE: https://tinyurl.com/2h47urt5

Amazon plans to invest about $4 billion into its rural delivery network across the US.

Apple is in hot water after a judge ruled it violated a court order to reform the App Store.

The Department of Justice sued several big health insurers, alleging they used illegal kickbacks to nudge members into Medicare programs.

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Visualize: How private equity tangled banks in a web of debt, from the Financial Times.

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QUANTUM COMPUTING: Healthcare and Banking Affected [B-QTUM Index Fund]

Posted on April 30, 2025 by Dr. David Edward Marcinko MBA MEd CMP™

FUNDAMENTAL INDUSTRY CHANGES

By Staff Reporters

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Index Funds

An index mutual fund or ETF (exchange-traded fund) tracks the performance of a specific market benchmark—or “index,” like the popular S&P 500 Index—as closely as possible. That’s why you may hear people refer to indexing as a “passive” investment strategy.

Instead of hand-selecting which stocks or bonds the fund will hold, the fund’s manager buys all (or a representative sample) of the stocks or bonds in the index it tracks.

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Quantum Computing

Unlike traditional computers that use bits, quantum computers utilize qubits. These qubits are capable of being in a state of superposition, where they can represent both 0 and 1 simultaneously, enabling the processing of multiple calculations at once. This could allow quantum computers to outperform classical computers in solving certain complex problems. However, the field is still overcoming challenges such as qubit stability and decoherence; especially in these three areas:

  • Quantum computing could fundamentally alter healthcare by accelerating drug discovery and improving individualized medicine. Rapid analysis of enormous volumes of biological data allows quantum computers to find trends that might guide the creation of more potent treatments. In addition to accelerating drug development, this will enable customized treatments tailored to unique genetic profiles.
  • Faster and more accurate financial models produced by quantum computing will transform the banking sector. Through real-time analysis of intricate financial systems, it can help investors to control risk and make better decisions. More precise market forecasts will help maximize portfolio management and trading strategies.
  • Through greatly enhanced medical diagnosis and patient care, quantum computing can transform the healthcare industry. Quantum computers can remarkably accurately find trends and possible health hazards by analyzing enormous volumes of medical data in a fraction of the time. Early diagnosis and more customized treatment alternatives follow from this.

B–QTUM Index Fund

Index Description: The BlueStar® Machine Learning and Quantum Computing Index (BQTUM) tracks liquid companies in the global quantum computing and machine learning industries, including products and services related to quantum computing or machine learning, such as the development or use of quantum computers or computing chips, superconducting materials, applications built on quantum computers, embedded artificial intelligence chips, or software specializing in the perception, collection, visualization, or management of big data.

Citation and Disclosure: https://www.defianceetfs.com/qtum/

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ZWEIG BREADTH THRUST: A Stock Indicator

Posted on April 29, 2025 by Dr. David Edward Marcinko MBA MEd CMP™

By Staff Reporters

SPONSOR: http://www.MarcinkoAssociates.com

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The Zweig Breadth Thrust may sound like an extremely difficult yoga position, but it’s actually a bullish technical indicator with an extraordinary record of 100% accuracy that was just triggered.

Created by investment advisor and author Martin Zweig, the indicator takes the 10-day moving average of the number of advancing stocks across the market and divides it by the number of advancing stocks plus the number of declining stocks. When the resulting percentage rises from below 40% to above 61.5% in 10 trading days, it’s a sign that stocks are rapidly going from oversold to overbought.

The math is a bit complicated, but Carson Research’s Chief Market Strategist Ryan Detrick certainly thinks highly of it.

According to the chart that he just posted on X, the Zweig Breadth Thrust has a perfect record of predicting market gains 6 and 12 months after it appears.

With the indicator triggering on Friday, here’s hoping that we can continue to trust the Zweig Thrust.

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FEAR BASED GOLD FEVER: Protect Yourself

Posted on April 27, 2025 by Dr. David Edward Marcinko MBA MEd CMP™

By Rick Kahler CFP™

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On January 21, 1980, in what I thought was a brilliant financial move, I bought gold. At what was then an all-time high of $873 an ounce.

Fast forward 45 years, and here we are again. Gold is on a tear, priced just over $3,000 an ounce at the time of this writing. It needs to rise another 16% to reach its inflation-adjusted record and many analysts think it might just get there.

What’s driving this gold rally? The same thing that drove it in 1980—fear.

Back then, the U.S. was grappling with rising inflation, double-digit price increases, and interest rates in the high teens. Investors feared that the dollar and stock market would collapse, that their hard-earned savings would erode into oblivion, and that gold was a safe haven. Sound familiar?

Today, inflation is less dramatic and the stock market would have to go a long way down to even register as a bear market, but it’s still a major concern. Central banks are buying gold at record levels. Gold-backed ETFs, which had been seeing years of outflows, are finally pulling investors back in.

For most, gold isn’t just an investment, it’s an emotional hedge against uncertainty. Back in 1980, I wasn’t thinking about long-term strategy. I was reacting to fear. Inflation had hit 14%, and like many others, I was convinced the dollar would soon be worthless. Gold, I thought, was my best shot at preserving wealth.

The problem? Inflation eventually cooled; it had dropped to an average of 3.5% by the mid-1980s. Gold prices tumbled along with it. Investors who, like me, bought at the peak, 45 years later still haven’t broken even on an inflation-adjusted basis. (My $873 purchase price, adjusted for inflation, equates to $3,580 today.) If I had stuck with a well-diversified portfolio, I likely would have fared much better over time.

Over the years, I’ve come to realize that our financial decisions aren’t just about numbers. They’re deeply influenced by our Internal Financial System™, a framework that helps explain why we handle money the way we do. I now see that my decision to buy gold was a battle between different financial “parts” of myself.

One part panicked, convinced that money was about to become worthless. Another saw gold prices soaring and didn’t want to miss out. Yet another part convinced me that buying at the peak was still a smart move. Had I paused and examined these internal voices, I might have made a different decision.

My gold purchase shows why emotionally driven investment decisions rarely lead to great financial outcomes. Instead of asking, “Is gold a smart long-term investment?” I was asking, “How do I make sure I don’t lose everything?” Those are two very different questions.

If you’re thinking about buying gold, I urge you to consider these questions:

“Am I investing from a place of fear or strategy?” If you’re rushing in because you’re scared of inflation, pause and reassess.

“How does gold fit into my broader financial plan?” Gold can be a great hedge—if held in appropriate amounts in a diversified portfolio. It is best viewed as catastrophic financial insurance, rather than an investment.

“Am I reacting to headlines or making a well-thought-out decision?” The financial media loves a good gold rally. But remember, markets move in cycles. Today’s rally may be history repeating itself.

Back in 1980, fear persuaded me that gold was a sure thing. I forgot an essential caveat—there are no sure things in investing. If bad market timing were an Olympic sport, I’d have taken home the gold (pun intended) for least profitable performance.

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NEWS IN BRIEF: Financial, Investing, Economics and IT

Posted on April 26, 2025 by Dr. David Edward Marcinko MBA MEd CMP™

BREAKING NEWS

By Staff Reporters

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  • Spot bitcoin ETFs saw their highest inflows since January over the last few days, sparking a crypto rally.
  • The Federal Reserve withdrew its guidance for banks about engaging in crypto-related business.
  • California is now the fourth-largest economy in the world.
  • OpenAI expects its revenue to reach $125 billion in 2029, up from $3.7 billion last year.
  • The median pay for CEOs rose to a record $16.8 million in 2024.
  • Meta Platforms is laying off staff working in its virtual reality division.
  • Apple announced it’s shifting its iPhone production from China to India.

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ANNUITIES: Three Types of Insurance Products

Posted on April 23, 2025 by Dr. David Edward Marcinko MBA MEd CMP™

By Staff Reporters

SPONSOR: http://www.MarcinkoAssociates.com

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An annuity is a contract between you and an insurance company.  When you purchase an annuity, you make a lump-sum contribution or a series of contributions, generally each month.  In return, the insurance company makes periodic payments to you beginning immediately or at a pre-determined date in the future.  These periodic payments may last for a finite period, such as 20 years, or an indefinite period, such as until both you and your spouse are deceased.  Annuities may also include a death benefit that will pay your beneficiary a specified minimum amount, such as the total amount of your contributions.

The growth of earnings in your annuity is typically tax-deferred; this could be beneficial as you may be in a lower tax bracket when you begin taking distributions from the annuity. 

Warning: A word of caution: Annuities are intended as long-term investments. If you withdraw your money early from an annuity, you may pay substantial surrender charges to the insurance company as well as tax penalties to the IRS and state.

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There are three basic types of annuities — fixed, indexed, and variable

1. With a fixed annuity, the insurance company agrees to pay you no less than a specified (fixed) rate of interest during the time that your account is growing. The insurance company also agrees that the periodic payments will be a specified (fixed) amount per dollar in your account.

2. With an indexed annuity, your return is based on changes in an index, such as the S&P. Indexed annuity contracts also state that the contract value will be no less than a specified minimum, regardless of index performance.

3. A variable annuity allows you to choose from among a range of different investment options, typically mutual funds. The rate of return and the amount of the periodic payments you eventually receive will vary depending on the performance of the investment options you select. 

READ: SEC’s publication, Variable Annuities: What You Should Know.

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Daily posts are organized by subject. ME-P administrators moderate the activity. Moderation may also conducted by community-specific moderators who are unpaid volunteers.

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CPA, CMA, CFA and Enrolled Agents

Posted on April 22, 2025 by Dr. David Edward Marcinko MBA MEd CMP™

DEFINITIONS

By Staff Reporters

SPONSOR: http://www.MarcinkoAssociates.com

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Certified Public Accountant

A Certified Public Accountant (CPA) is a licensed professional who has passed an examination administered by a state’s Board of Accountancy. State CPA exams are created under guidelines issued by The American Institute of Certified Public Accountants (AICPA). The Uniform CPA Exam can only be taken by accountants who already have professional experience in the field and a bachelor’s degree.CPAs are not fiduciaries.

Not all accountants are CPAs. Accountants who are CPAs are licensed by their state’s Board of Accountancy after passing the Uniform CPA Exam. CPAs prepare reports that accurately reflect the business dealings of the companies and individuals that hire them. Many prepare tax returns for individuals or businesses and advise them on ways to minimize taxes. Obtaining the CPA designation requires a bachelor’s degree, typically with a major in business administration, finance, or accounting. Other majors are acceptable if the applicant meets the minimum requirements for accounting courses.  

Enrolled Agent

Although not a CPA, an Enrolled Agent [EA] is a person who has earned the privilege of representing taxpayers before the Internal Revenue Service [IRS]. This is done by either passing a three-part comprehensive IRS test covering individual and business tax returns, or through experience as a former IRS employee. Enrolled agent status is the highest credential the IRS awards. Individuals who obtain this elite status must adhere to ethical standards and complete 72 hours of continuing education courses every three years.

Certified Managerial Accountant

A Certified Management Accountant (CMA), which is issued by the Institute of Management Accountants (IMA), builds on financial accounting proficiency by adding management skills that aid in making strategic business decisions based on financial data.

Oftentimes, the reports and analyses prepared by certified management accountants (CMAs) will go above and beyond those required by generally accepted accounting principles (GAAP). 

For example, in addition to a company’s required GAAP financial statements, CMAs may prepare additional management reports that provide specific insights useful to corporate decision-makers, such as performance metrics on specific company departments, products, or even employees.

Certified Financial Analyst

A Certified Financial Analyst [CFA] is a globally-recognized professional designation offered by the CFA Institute, an organization that measures and certifies the competence and integrity of financial analysts. Candidates are required to pass three levels of exams covering areas such as accounting, economics, ethics, money management, and security analysis. From 1963 through November 2023, more than 3.7 million candidates had taken the CFA exam. The overall pass rate was 45%. From 2014 through 2023, the 10-year average pass rate was 43%.1

CFA Institute. The CFA Institute was formerly the Association for Investment Management and Research (AIMR).

The CFA charter is one of the most respected designations in finance and is widely considered to be the gold standard in the field of investment analysis. To become a charter holder, candidates must pass three difficult exams, have a bachelors degree, and have at least 4,000 hours of relevant professional experience over a minimum of three years. Passing the CFA Program exams requires strong discipline and an extensive amount of studying. 

There are more than 200,000 CFA charter holders worldwide in 164 countries.The designation is handed out by the CFA Institute, which has 11 offices worldwide and 160 local member societies.

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The DOCTOR EFFECT

Posted on April 21, 2025 by Dr. David Edward Marcinko MBA MEd CMP™

Dr. David Edward Marcinko; MBA MEd CMP™

Medical Colleagues Beware the Advisors

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SPONSOR: http://www.MarcinkoAssociates.com

Several years ago a group of highly trusted and deeply  experienced financial advisors, insurance service professionals and estate planners noted that far too many of their mature retiring physician clients, using traditional stock brokers, management consultants and financial advisors, seemed to be less successful than those who went it alone. These Do-it-Yourselfers [DIYs] had setbacks and made mistakes, for sure. But, the ME Inc doctors seemed to learn from their mistakes and did not incur the high management and service fees demanded from general or retail one-size-fits-all “advisors.”

In fact, an informal inverse related relationship was noted, and dubbed the “Doctor Effect.” In others words, the more consultants an individual doctor retained; the less well they did in all disciplines of the financial planning and medical practice management, continuum.

Of course, the reason for this discrepancy eluded many of them as Wall Street brokerages and wire-houses flooded the media with messages, infomercials, print, radio, TV, texts, tweets, dinners and internet ads to the contrary. Rather than self-learn the basics, the prevailing sentiment seemed to purse the holy grail of finding the “perfect financial advisor.”  This realization confirmed the industry culture which seemed to be:

Bread for the advisor – Crumbs for the client!

And so, Marcinko Associates formed a cadre’ of technology focused and highly educated multi-degreed doctors, nurses, financial advisors, attorneys, accountants, psychologists and educational visionaries who decided there must be a better way for their healthcare colleagues to receive financial planning advice, products and related advisory services within a culture of fiduciary responsibility.

We trust you agree with this specific niche knowledge, and collegial consulting philosophy, as illustrated thru our firm and these two books.

EDUCATION: Books

SPEAKING: Dr. Marcinko will be speaking and lecturing, signing and opining, teaching and preaching, storming and performing at many locations throughout the USA this year! His tour of witty and serious pontifications may be scheduled on a planned or ad-hoc basis; for public or private meetings and gatherings; formally, informally, or over lunch or dinner. All medical societies, financial advisory firms or Broker-Dealers are encouraged to submit a RFP for speaking engagements: MarcinkoAdvisors@outlook.com 

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STOCKS: Basic Definitions

Posted on April 18, 2025 by Dr. David Edward Marcinko MBA MEd CMP™

By Staff Reporters

SPONSOR: http://www.MarcinkoAssociates.com

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When you buy a share of stock, you are taking ownership in a company.  Collectively, the company is owned by all the shareholders, and each share represents a claim on assets and earnings.  If the company distributes profits to its shareholders, you should receive a proportionate share of the earnings.

Stocks are often categorized by the size of the company, or their market capitalization.  The market capitalization is determined by multiplying the number of outstanding shares by the current share price.  The most common market cap classes are small-cap (valued from $100 million to $1 billion), mid-cap ($1 billion to $10 billion), and large cap ($10 billion to $100 billion).

Stocks are also categorized by their sector, or the type of business the company conducts.  Common sectors include utilities, consumer staples, energy, communications, financial, health care, transportation, and technology.

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Stocks are often viewed as being in one of two categories — growth or value.

  • Growth stocks are ones that are associated with high quality, successful companies that are expected to continue growing at a better-than-average rate as compared to the rest of the market.
  • Value stocks are ones that have generally solid fundamentals, but are currently out of favor with the market.  This may be due to the company being relatively new and unproven in the market, or because the company has recently experienced a decline due to the company’s sector being affected negatively.  An example of this would be if the federal government was to levy a new tax on all cell phones, thus negatively affecting all cell phone company stocks.

History has shown that, over time, stocks have provided a better return than bonds, real estate, and other savings vehicles.  As a result, stocks may be the ideal investment for investors with long-term goals.

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Few Stocks UP with Many Stocks DOWN

Posted on April 18, 2025 by Dr. David Edward Marcinko MBA MEd CMP™

By Staff Reporters

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U.S. stock and bond markets will be closed on Good Friday. Many global markets will also be closed Friday. Exceptions include Japan and mainland China, which will be open as usual. U.S. markets will reopen Monday. Many international markets will remain shut to mark Easter Monday, including Australia, Hong Kong, and exchanges in France, Germany and the U.K.

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YESTERDAY 4/17/25

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🟢 What’s up

  • TSMC eked out a 0.10% gain after the semiconductor maker reported a 60% increase in profits last quarter and downplayed the effects of tariffs.
  • Charles Schwab isn’t just the guy who made $2 billion from market chaos last week. It’s also the brokerage that reported record quarterly revenue, but shares only rose 0.65%.
  • Hertz climbed another 43.87%, tacking on another day of big wins after Bill Ackman’s Pershing Square Capital took a stake in the rental car company.
  • Trump Media & Technology Group popped 11.65% after the company asked the SEC to investigate a hedge fund with a $105 million short bet against it.
  • Chinese tea chain Chagee soared 15.86% in its first day of trading on the Nasdaq.
  • DR Horton missed analyst expectations last quarter and lowered its fiscal year guidance, but investors quickly forgave the country’s largest homebuilder and pushed shares up 3.16%.

What’s down

  • Alphabet took a 1.38% hit after a federal judge ruled that Google is a monopoly. This marks Alphabet’s second antitrust loss since last August.
  • Alcoa fell 6.98% after the aluminum mining behemoth announced it ate about $20 million in tariff-related costs last quarter, noting that this figure could rise to $90 million in the current quarter.
  • American Express fell 0.64% even though the credit card company beat Wall Street’s expectations last quarter.
  • Global Payments tumbled 17.43% after the payment processor announced a $24 billion acquisition of competitor Worldpay.

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Very Few Stocks UP but Many Stocks DOWN

Posted on April 17, 2025 by Dr. David Edward Marcinko MBA MEd CMP™

By Staff Reporters

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🟢 What’s up

  • Hertz Global soared 56.44% on the news that Bill Ackman’s Pershing Square Capital has taken a $46.5 million stake in the rental car company.
  • Travelers Cos. rose 1.13% in spite of massive losses from California wildfires, which didn’t hurt the insurer’s bottom line as badly as Wall Street feared.
  • Abbott Laboratories gained 2.77% after the pharma company missed sales estimates but still beat earnings forecasts.
  • Gold miners continue to climb as gold keeps hitting new highs. Newmont rose 2.51%, while Gold Fields gained 3.35%.

What’s down

  • Tesla sank 4.94% after the company’s share of EV sales in California fell below 50% in the first quarter, while export controls threaten plans to produce Cybercabs in the US.
  • United Airlines fell 0.01% despite reporting its “best first-quarter financial results in five years,” according to management. The airline took the unique measure of providing two different financial outlooks for the year ahead: one for a stable economy, and one for a recession.
  • Lyft shed just 0.46% on the news that the ride-hailing company is acquiring European taxi app Free Now for $199 million.
  • Interactive Brokers Group reported a 47% increase in trading volume last quarter that helped it beat revenue expectations, but the brokerage still tumbled 8.95% after missing profit forecasts.
  • Palantir gave up some of its recent gains following its big NATO announcement, sinking 5.78% today as investors collected profits.
  • JB Hunt Transport Services’ management team warned that the logistics company sits squarely in the crosshairs of the trade war, pushing shares down 7.68%.
  • Omnicom Group tumbled 7.28% after the advertising firm missed revenue estimates thanks to economic uncertainty.

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STOCK MARKET: Update

Posted on April 15, 2025 by Dr. David Edward Marcinko MBA MEd CMP™

By Staff Reporters

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Stocks kept the good vibes going for a second trading day yesterday with tech companies like Apple rising as investors reacted to the weekend’s news that smartphones and computers would be temporarily exempt from “reciprocal” tariffs—at least until new semiconductor tariffs are imposed.

Car companies also jumped after President Trump suggested he wanted to “help” as automakers try to transition their production to the US in the face of 25% auto tariffs.

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PHYSICIANS: On Real Estate Investing

Posted on April 14, 2025 by Dr. David Edward Marcinko MBA MEd CMP™

OVER HEARD IN THE FINANCIAL ADVISOR’S LOUNGE

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By Perry D’Alessio, CPA
[D’Alessio Tocci & Pell LLP]

What I see in my accounting practice is that significant accumulation in younger physician portfolio growth is not happening as it once did. This is partially because confidence in the equity markets is still not what it was; but that doctors are also looking for better solutions to support their reduced incomes.

For example, I see older doctors with about 25 percent of their wealth in the market, and even in retirement years, do not rely much on that accumulation to live on. Of this 25 percent, about 80 percent is in their retirement plan, as tax breaks for funding are just too good to ignore.

What I do see is that about 50 percent of senior physician wealth is in rental real estate, both in a private residence that has a rental component, and mixed-use properties. It is this that provides a good portion of income in retirement.

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QUESTION: So, could I add dialog about real estate as a long term solution for retirement?

Yes, as I believe a real estate concentration in the amount of 5 percent is optimal for a diversified portfolio, but in a very passive way through mutual or index funds that are invested in real estate holdings and not directly owning properties.

Today, as an option, we have the ability to take pension plan assets and transfer marketable securities for rental property to be held inside the plan collecting rents instead of dividends.

Real estate holdings never vary very much, tend to go up modestly, and have preferential tax treatment due to depreciation of the property against income.

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EDUCATION: Books

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CONVERTIBLE ARBITRAGE: Defined

Posted on April 13, 2025 by Dr. David Edward Marcinko MBA MEd CMP™

By Staff Reporters

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Convertible Arbitrage

Convertible arbitrage is the oldest market-neutral strategy. Designed to capitalize on the relative mispricing between a convertible security (e.g. convertible bond or preferred stock) and the underlying equity, convertible arbitrage was employed as early as the 1950s.

Since then, convertible arbitrage has evolved into a sophisticated, model-intensive strategy, designed to capture the difference between the income earned by a convertible security (which is held long) and the dividend of the underlying stock (which is sold short). The resulting net positive income of the hedged position is independent of any market fluctuations. The trick is to assemble a portfolio wherein the long and short positions, responding to equity fluctuations, interest rate shifts, credit spreads and other market events offset each other.

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Hedge Fund Research (HFR) New York, offers the following description of the strategy

Convertible Arbitrage involves taking long positions in convertible securities and hedging those positions by selling short the underlying common stock. A manager will, in an effort to capitalize on relative pricing inefficiencies, purchase long positions in convertible securities, generally convertible bonds, convertible preferred stock or warrants, and hedge a portion of the equity risk by selling short the underlying common stock. Timing may be linked to a specific event relative to the underlying company, or a belief that a relative mispricing exists between the corresponding securities. Convertible securities and warrants are priced as a function of the price of the underlying stock, expected future volatility of returns, risk free interest rates, call provisions, supply and demand for specific issues and, in the case of convertible bonds, the issue-specific corporate/Treasury yield spread. Thus, there is ample room for relative mis-valuations.

Because a large part of this strategy’s gain is generated by cash flow, it is a relatively low-risk strategy. 

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SPECIAL PURPOSE VEHICLE: Defined

Posted on April 12, 2025 by Dr. David Edward Marcinko MBA MEd CMP™

By dcpalter

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What is an SPV and When Do You Need One?

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A special purpose vehicle (SPV), or a special purpose entity (SPE), is a legal entity that a parent company creates to hold separate assets from the parent’s balance sheet.

Its purpose is to isolate the parent company from any potential credit or financial risk that may arise from the SPV and is often used to pursue riskier projects, securitize debt, or transfer assets.
Since an SPV is separate from the parent company, it isn’t affected by the parent’s performance, and the parent isn’t typically affected by the performance of the SPV. If the parent goes bankrupt and is no longer in existence, the SPV can carry on.

This makes an SPV bankruptcy remote. This also means that the parent company is unaffected by the loss if the SPV fails.

MORE: https://www.wallstreetoasis.com/resources/skills/strategy/special-purpose-vehicle-spv

Related: https://medicalexecutivepost.com/2024/07/26/spac-v-direct-listing-v-ipo/

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MICROSOFT: 50 Years

Posted on April 11, 2025 by Dr. David Edward Marcinko MBA MEd CMP™

By Staff Reporters and Morning Brew

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Microsoft is celebrating its 50th birthday this week looking like a formerly washed up A-lister who’s suddenly rebounded and getting Oscar noms again.

Ever since Bill Gates and Paul Allen huddled in a garage in 1975 to start a company that’d define the experience of sitting in front of a boxy white PC monitor, Microsoft has had an uneven run. But after years of getting roasted for Internet Explorer, it now seems to be back on top—even briefly beating Apple as the world’s most valuable public company last year.

The tech giant can not only boast bonanza earnings, it also feels like a purveyor of the next big thing again, leading in the AI race through its partnership with OpenAI.

Windows washed

In the 1990s, it felt like Microsoft’s computer geeks were the overlords of tech. Windows powered most PCs, Internet Explorer became the go-to browser, and proficiency in Office tools became standard resume skills. But in the following decade, the company slept on internet tech and smartphones, ceding ground to Apple, Alphabet, and Meta.

It responded by going into midlife crisis mode, aka blowing cash on a series of questionable acquisitions to stay hip. That…didn’t help. By the 2010s, only grandparents could be reached @hotmail.com, Windows phones were a rarity, and no one used Bing as a verb.

When Gates stepped away from running the company in 2000, its new CEO Steve Ballmer grew its revenue threefold by the end of his tenure in 2013. He spearheaded Microsoft’s foray into gaming with the Xbox console and started its blockbuster cloud computing product Azure. But Microsoft’s profit growth slowed dramatically thanks to a massive cash bleed from its shopping spree.

  • It dropped $6.3 billion on the owner of ad tech platforms aQuantive to compete with Google’s ad business in 2007, only to write it off as a dud five years later.
  • The company burned at least $8 billion trying to make Windows phones a bigger force by buying Nokia’s cellphone division in 2014.
  • Microsoft paid $8.5 billion for Skype in 2011, which must’ve made it extra painful to announce that it was sunsetting the video calling service this winter.

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Cash-slinging comeback kid

When it blew out forty candles in 2015, the tech giant was looking past its prime. The stock was trading at around $35 a share, well below its $58 peak in 1999. Its net profit for the year was $12 billion. But investors who held on until now were rewarded with shares going for $374 on its birthday this week after the company reported a net profit of $88 billion in the last financial year.

Much of the revenue now comes from its Azure cloud computing business, which has been boosted by the booming AI industry ravenous for server power.

  • When Microsoft’s current CEO Satya Nadella stepped into the role in 2014, he doubled down on Azure to make Microsoft into a B2B behemoth selling computing power to tech companies.
  • It is now the world’s second largest cloud provider after Amazon Web Services, with a 21% market share, according to Synergy Research Group.

Microsoft also bought some businesses that didn’t fail, including LinkedIn—the thought leadership hub with a user base that has soared to 1 billion since the 2016 acquisition. It also owns GitHub, the leading code-sharing platform for software developers. And in its biggest purchase yet, it snagged gaming IP giant Activision Blizzard that owns Call of Duty and World of Warcraft for a whopping $68 billion in 2022, hoping to make itself a dominant caterer to the Xbox joystick-wielding crowd.

It’s an AI company now

The not-quite-acquisition that really got Microsoft its groundbreaker’s glitz back was pouring $13 billion into OpenAI.

Having gotten in on the ground floor of the AI boom, Microsoft is harnessing OpenAI’s models to power its CoPilot AI agent, which it embedded into its Office tools and Teams app. This pits it against other tech giants betting that AI agents automating tasks will be the biggest in-cubicle revolution since Excel.

Cite: Morning Brew April 5, 2025

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FINANCIAL MODELING TERMS: All Physicians Should Review and Know

Posted on April 10, 2025 by Dr. David Edward Marcinko MBA MEd CMP™

By Staff Reporters

SPONSOR: http://www.CertifiedMedicalPlanner.org

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Financial Modeling is one of the most highly valued, but thinly understood, skills in financial analysis. The objective of financial modeling is to combine accounting, finance, and business metrics to create a forecast of a company’s future results.

According to Jeff Schmidt, a financial model is simply a spreadsheet, usually built in Microsoft Excel, that forecasts a business’s financial performance into the future. The forecast is typically based on the company’s historical performance and assumptions about the future and requires preparing an income statement, balance sheet, cash flow statement, and supporting schedules (known as a three-statement model, one of many types of approaches to financial statement modeling). From there, more advanced types of models can be built such as discounted cash flow analysis (DCF model), leveraged buyout (LBO), mergers and acquisitions (M&A), and sensitivity analysis

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DEFINED TERMS

Discounted Cash Flow (DCF): A valuation method used to estimate the value of an investment based on its expected future cash flows, adjusted for the time value of money. It’s like deciding whether a treasure chest is worth diving for now, based on the gold coins you’ll be able to cash in later.

Sensitivity Analysis: This involves changing one variable at a time to see how it affects an outcome. Imagine tweaking your coffee-to-water ratio each morning to achieve the perfect brew strength.

Budget – A budget is the amount of money a department, function, or business can spend in a given period of time. Usually, but not always, finance does this annually for the upcoming year.

Rolling Forecast – A rolling forecast maintains a consistent view over a period of time (often 12 months). When one period closes, finance adds one more period to the forecast.

Topside – A topside adjustment is an overlay to a forecast. This is typically completed by the corporate or headquarter team. As individual teams submit a forecast, the consolidated result might not make sense or align with expectations. When this occurs, the high-level teams use a topside adjustment to streamline or adjust the consolidated view.

Monte Carlo Simulation: Picture yourself at the casino, but instead of gambling your savings away, you’re using this technique to predict different outcomes of your business decisions based on random variables. It’s like playing financial roulette with the odds in your favor.

What-If Analysis: Ever daydream about what would happen if you took that leap of faith with your business? This tool allows you to explore various scenarios without risking a dime. It’s like trying on outfits in a virtual dressing room before making a purchase.

Leveraged Buyout (LBO) Model: This is a bit like orchestrating a heist, but legally. It’s about acquiring a company using borrowed money, with plans to pay off the debts with the company’s own cash flows. High stakes, high rewards.

Mergers and Acquisitions (M&A) Model: Picture two puzzle pieces coming together. This model evaluates how combining companies can create a new, more valuable entity. It’s the corporate version of a matchmaker.

Three Statement Model: The holy trinity of financial modeling, linking the income statement, balance sheet, and cash flow statement. It’s like weaving a tapestry where each thread is crucial to the overall picture.

Capital Asset Pricing Model (CAPM): A formula that calculates the expected return on an investment, considering its risk compared to the market. It’s like choosing the best roller coaster in the park, balancing thrill and safety.

Cash Flow Forecasting: This is your financial weather forecast, predicting the cash flow climate of your business. It helps you plan for sunny days and save for the rainy ones.

Cost of Capital: The price of financing your business, whether through debt or equity. It’s like the interest rate on your growth engine, pushing you to maximize every dollar invested.

Debt Schedule: A timeline of your business’s debts, showing when and how much you owe. It’s your roadmap to becoming debt-free, one milestone at a time.

Equity Valuation: Determining the value of a company’s shares. It’s like assessing the worth of a rare gemstone, ensuring investors pay a fair price for a piece of the treasure.

Financial Leverage: Using debt to amplify returns on investment. It’s like using a lever to lift a heavy object, increasing force but also risk.

Forecast Model: A crystal ball for your finances, projecting future performance based on past and present data. It’s your guide through the financial wilderness, helping you navigate with confidence.

Operating Model: A detailed blueprint of how a business generates value, mapping out operational activities and their financial impact. It’s like laying out the inner workings of a clock, ensuring every gear turns smoothly.

Revenue Growth Model: This tracks potential increases in sales over time, charting a course for expansion. It’s like plotting your ascent up a mountain, anticipating the effort required to reach the summit.

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REPUTATIONAL BANKRUPTCY: Of the American Dollar

Posted on April 9, 2025 by Dr. David Edward Marcinko MBA MEd CMP™

By Vitaliy Katsenelson CFA

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The Reputational Bankruptcy of the American Dollar
I am in an unenviable position. The policy coming out of the White House has a significant impact on economics, more than ever before in my career. If I say anything positive about that policy, I’ll be put in the MAGA camp. If I criticize it, I’ll be accused of suffering from Trump derangement syndrome. I am hired by you to make the best investment decisions possible. Rather than see me as engaged in political commentary, I’d ask that you view my remarks as purely analytical.

Let me give you this analogy. I live in Denver. Let’s imagine I am a huge Broncos fan, and the Broncos are playing the Chicago Bears. If I am betting a significant amount of money on this game, I should put my affinity for the Broncos and hatred of the Chicago Bears aside and analyze data and facts. The Broncos are either going to win or lose; my wanting them to win has zero impact on the outcome. The same applies to my analysis here. My motto in life is Seneca’s saying, “Time discovers truth.” I just try to discover it before time does.

When it comes to politics, I also have a significant advantage. I was not born in this country. From a young age, I was brainwashed about communism, not about team Republican versus team Democrat. The failure of the Soviet Union de-brainwashed me fast concerning the virtues of communism and converted me into a believer in free markets.

As a result, I never bought into either party’s ideology, and thus in the last four presidential elections I voted for a Republican, an independent, a Democrat, and wrote in my youngest daughter, Mia Sarah (not in that order). In my articles I have criticized the policies of both Biden (student loan forgiveness, unions) and Trump (Bitcoin reserve).

I remind myself that in times like these you have to be a nuanced thinker. Some of Trump’s policies are terrific, others … not so much (I am being diplomatic here).

Scott Fitzgerald once said “The test of a first-rate intelligence is the ability to hold two opposed ideas in mind at the same time, and still retain the ability to function.” In 2025 we are taking this “first-rate intelligence” test daily.

What will happen to the US dollar? The US dollar will likely continue to get weaker, which is inflationary for the US. Let me start with some easily identifiable reasons:

We have too much debt. We ran 6-7% budget deficits while our economy was growing and unemployment was at record lows. Now we have $36 trillion in debt. Our interest expenses exceed our defense spending, and these costs will continue to climb. If/when we go into recession, we may see something we have not seen in a long time – higher interest rates. Our budget deficits will balloon to between 9–12%, and the debt market, realizing that inflation (i.e., money printing) is inevitable, will say, “Pay up!”

New competition from Bitcoin. President Trump’s approval of Bitcoin as a potential reserve currency is one of the most self-serving and anti-American things I’ve seen any president do. The US dollar is the world’s reserve currency. We still have little competition for that title. China could be a contender, but it is not a democracy and has capital controls. This policy has no upside for America, only downside.

A stronger Europe. Ironically, we may inadvertently create a stronger Europe by threatening to abandon NATO. I don’t want to insult European clients (or my European friends), but the following analogy describes the US-Europe relationship on some level: Europe gradually evolved into a trust fund kid (when it came to security) and the US turned into its sugar daddy. The trust fund kid was incredibly dependent on the sugar daddy. It criticized its parent for being a barbarian and money-driven, but it relied heavily on that parent to protect it from bullies.

President Trump cut off Europe’s allowance by threatening that the US might not protect Europe from Russia. This has forced Europe to spend more money on defense. Outside of Germany (which has little debt), few European economies can afford that. This may force Europe (or at least some European countries) to become more pragmatic – to cut social programs and bureaucracy. If this leads to a stronger Europe both economically and militarily, the euro will be competing with the US dollar. This is a big if.

Our new foreign policy.

When people describe President Trump’s foreign policy as “transactional,” they’re highlighting a fundamental shift in how America engages with the world – one with profound implications for our global standing, national interests, and the US dollar. The shift affects both types of capital – financial and reputational.

Reputational capital isn’t at risk in ‘one-shot’ transactions like house selling. Imagine you’re selling your primary residence and moving elsewhere. Do you disclose every flaw, or let the buyer figure things out? Your incentive is to maximize short-term profits. You’ll likely never meet this buyer again, and therefore there are incentives not to care what they’ll think of you afterward. You’ll be transactional, seeking the highest price possible for your biggest asset. This exemplifies a ‘one-shot’ system where future interactions aren’t expected.

Contrast this with a relationship- and trust-based system. Now imagine you are a homebuilder in a small town. Your suppliers only extend credit if you have a reputation for paying on time. Your employees do quality work only if you treat them fairly. Your buyers tell friends about their experience with you. The incentives naturally create a relational approach. In this trust-based system, incentives skew toward maximizing long-term profits, where reputational capital becomes the glue creating continuity.

Reputational capital radiates predictability – you know how someone will behave based on their history – but operating with low or negative reputational capital is difficult and expensive. People won’t enter long-term contracts with you or will demand external guarantees. Many potential partners will simply refuse to deal with you.

Building reputational capital works like adding pennies to a jar – each good deed incrementally adds to your standing. Yet reputational capital can collapse instantly by removing the jar’s bottom. A single breach of trust doesn’t just remove one penny; it can wipe out your entire balance and plunge you into reputational bankruptcy. The math is brutally asymmetric: good deeds might add a point or two, while bad deeds subtract by factors of 50 or 100.

This doesn’t mean transactions shouldn’t be profitable. If you’re accumulating reputational capital while consistently losing money, you’re probably in the wrong business. Each deal should be evaluated considering both long-term financial and reputational capital.

Individual transactions can sacrifice some profit but cannot afford to lose reputational capital. A “one-shot” transactional approach used in a trust-system environment may provide greater short-term profitability, but if this success comes at the expense of reputational capital, the long-term consequences for America’s global position could be devastating.

This brings us to our current foreign policy.

Relationships between nations are a trust-based system. I’d argue it’s a super-relational system because it’s multigenerational, lasting beyond the life of any one human. Reputational capital is paramount here.

Part of the US’s strength has been the soft power – the reputational capital – it exerted. We had a lot of friends, which helped us to be more effective in dealing with our foes. We keep telling ourselves that America is an “exceptional” nation. This exceptionalism didn’t just come from our financial and military might – it accumulated based on our reputational capital.

Though we don’t always succeed, we are a people who try to do the right thing. Our exceptionalism has been earned through our actions. We are the country that helped rebuild Europe and gave it six decades to repay lend-lease. We toppled communism.

I don’t know the nuances of the Ukraine mineral deal, but initially it had the optics of extortion. Though I think the renegotiated and signed version appears to be fair to both sides, forcing repayment while Ukraine is dodging Russian missiles made the US look transactional.

Actions by President Trump over the last month have undermined our reputation. We are quickly becoming a “one-shot” transactional player in a trust-based environment. Imposing tariffs on Canada on a whim to try to get it to become the 51st state erodes American reputational capital. So does not ruling out America invading Greenland. This puts us on the same moral plane as Russia invading Ukraine.

The conversation about tariffs has many nuances. For instance, I don’t know anyone who opposes reciprocal tariffs – they seem fair and don’t consume any reputational capital. But tariffs that are used as weapons in a trade war in order to annex another country erode reputational capital. Threatening to leave NATO and not protect countries that don’t spend enough on their defense diminishes reputational capital. Maybe the only way to get European countries to spend on defense was to threaten not to defend them – you can agree or disagree with the rationale behind each of Trump’s decisions, but what can’t be argued is that they undermined our reputational capital.

As we lose soft power, our influence will diminish, and thus so will perceptions of our power. The world will start looking at us not from the perspective of the continuity of generations but of presidential cycles. The word of the American president will have an expiration date of the next presidential or mid-term election.

There are two negotiation styles – Warren Buffett’s and Donald Trump’s. Both have their advantages and disadvantages. Buffett will give you one offer and one offer only. Once the deal is agreed to, even just verbally, that is the deal. Critics would say that there is downside to that predictability, as foes know how you are going to respond. Donald Trump’s style is to be unpredictable, which has its own advantages when you deal with foes – it keeps opponents guessing. But it destroys trust with your allies.

In a world of fiat currencies, all currency is a financial and reputational promise. President Trump, with the help of DOGE (and maybe even tariffs) may increase our financial strength. I hope he does, but it will likely come at a very high cost to our reputational capital, and therefore US global influence and the US dollar will continue its decline.

How are we positioned for this?

About half of our portfolio is foreign companies whose sales are not in dollars. They will benefit from a weaker dollar. We also have exposure to oil, which is priced in the US dollar and usually appreciates when the dollar weakens.

A weaker dollar means our imports will become more expensive, which is inflationary. We own many companies with pricing power and also companies that have claims on someone else’s revenues. Take Uber for example: they get about 20% of each ride. If the cost of the ride goes up, so does their dollar take.

Why does President Trump keep pushing crypto?

In July 2019, Trump said the following: “I am not a fan of Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies, which are not money, and whose value is highly volatile and based on thin air.” Five years later he promised to establish the US Crypto Reserve, and in 2025 he did.

What changed? There is no logical reason for an American president to endorse crypto. None. Here is the honest answer: Crypto bros made mega-contributions to his campaign.

To top it off, three days before he took office he issued $TRUMP – a shitcoin. Believe it or not, “shitcoin” is a technical term in the crypto community (any coin other than Bitcoin is called a shitcoin by Bitcoin “maximalists”, folks who believe Bitcoin is the one and only digital currency). The future sitting president literally issued – I don’t want to call it a currency, so I guess shitcoin is the right name – that will at some point decline to zero in value. In other words, he’ll fleece his loyal followers who purchase $TRUMP of billions of dollars.

I previously referenced both reputational capital and soft power. These types of acts by a sitting president subtract from both.

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BLACK MONDAY REDEUX: Interesting Day or Financial Crisis?

Posted on April 7, 2025 by Dr. David Edward Marcinko MBA MEd CMP™

BILL ACKMAN versus JIM KRAMER

By Staff Reporters

SPONSOR: http://www.CertifiedMedicalPlanner.org

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Interesting Day?

Markets: Last week’s market bloodbath will go down in the history books. The S&P 500’s 10% plunge on Thursday and Friday, after President Trump announced massive tariffs, ranks among the steepest two-day decline in the last 70 years, on par with Black Monday in 1987, the post-Lehman Brothers rout in 2008, and the Covid plunge in March 2020. More than $6 trillion was wiped out from stocks over two days, and the NASDAQ entered a bear market, down 20% from a previous high.

Trading restarted at 9:30 am ET for what Bill Ackman predicts will be “one of the more interesting days in our country’s economic history.”

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Monday Crash?

On the other hand, CNBC host and market commentator Jim Cramer just warned that America is in store for another “Black Monday” market crash similar to the record 1987 collapse if President Trump doesn’t curtail his tariff plan.

Cramer — who noted that the 1987 crash saw the Dow Jones Industrial Average fall by 22.6% in a single day — said the bloodbath could be repeated after the brutal two-day sell-off following the announcement of Trump’s sweeping tariffs against nearly 90 countries.

If the president doesn’t try to reach out and reward these countries and companies that play by the rules, then the 1987 scenario … the one where we went down three days and then down 22% on Monday, has the most cogency,” Cramer said on his show Saturday, referencing the worst single-day fall in the history of the Dow.

QUESTION: Who is correct; Ackman or Cramer?

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HEDGE FUND: Wrap Fees?

Posted on April 5, 2025 by Dr. David Edward Marcinko MBA MEd CMP™

Staff Reporters

SPONSOR: http://www.CertifiedMedicalPlanner.org

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A hedge fund is a limited partnership of private investors whose money is pooled and managed by professional fund managers. These managers use a wide range of strategies, including leverage (borrowed money) and the trading of nontraditional assets, to earn above-average investment returns. A hedge fund investment is often considered a risky, alternative investment choice and usually requires a high minimum investment or net worth. Hedge funds typically target wealthy investors.

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My stock broker is telling me about a “wrap-fee” program involving a hedge fund manager.

QUESTION: What is a Wrap Fee?

A wrap fee program is a service that provides investment advice and portfolio management to clients for one all-inclusive fee. The fee pays for the services provided to the client, including but not limited to securities transactions, portfolio management, research, brokerage, and administrative services. Wrap fee programs also provide an understanding of a client’s financial goals and objectives; research and selection of assets; implementation of investment decisions; account statements, and access to real-time financial data.

The Investment Advisers Act of 1940 regulates investment advisors when they offer these wrap fee programs and requires them to provide comprehensive disclosure documents before investing. This act helps ensure clients have access to all important information that affects their investment decisions.

QUESTION: Why do I need my stock broker? Can I just go directly to the hedge fund manager?

Yes, you can, but you may find a different fee arrangement when you reach the hedge fund manager, and you may be participating in an unethical transaction. When hedge fund managers set up separate accounts for wrap-fee clients, they agree to take a set fee in exchange for managing this money. They also enter into agreements with one or more brokers to help market this aspect of their money management business. A portion of the wrap fee you pay goes to the broker, and a portion goes to the manager. Incentive compensation is not generally used.

When approached directly, hedge fund managers will typically offer only the hedge fund, complete with incentive compensation and pooled investment features. However, if the hedge fund manager is willing to set up a separate account, it is possible that the investor will find the set fee much less than what he or she would have paid in a wrap fee account through a broker.

Finally, the very large caveat to all this is that the ethics of a hedge fund manager who steals clients from brokers with whom he has a marketing relationship ought to be called into question. And when it comes to hedge funds, the ethics of the manager are of paramount importance.

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TRADITIONAL INVESTMENT PORTFOLIO DIVERSIFICATION MODEL: Routed by Larry Fink CEO of BlackRock?

Posted on April 3, 2025 by Dr. David Edward Marcinko MBA MEd CMP™

BREAKING NEWS – MARKET VOLATILITY

By Staff Reporters

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US stocks nosedived on Thursday, with the Dow tumbling more than 1,200 points as President Trump’s surprisingly steep “Liberation Day” tariffs sent shock waves through markets worldwide. The tech-heavy NASDAQ Composite (IXIC) led the sell-off, plummeting over 4%. The S&P 500 (GSPC) dove 3.7%, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average (^DJI) tumbled roughly 3%. [ongoing story].

So, does the traditional 60 stock / 40 bond strategy still work or do we need another portfolio model?

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The 60/40 strategy evolved out of American economist Harry Markowitz’s groundbreaking 1950s work on modern portfolio theory, which holds that investors should diversify their holdings with a mix of high-risk, high-return assets and low-risk, low-return assets based on their individual circumstances.

While a portfolio with a mix of 40% bonds and 60% equities may bring lower returns than all-stock holdings, the diversification generally brings lower variance in the returns—meaning more reliability—as long as there isn’t a strong correlation between stock and bond returns (ideally the correlation is negative, with bond returns rising while stock returns fall).

CORRELATION: https://medicalexecutivepost.com/2024/10/27/correlation-diversification-in-finance-and-investments/

For 60/40 to work, bonds must be less volatile than stocks and economic growth and inflation have to move up and down in tandem. Typically, the same economic growth that powers rallies in equities also pushes up inflation—and bond returns down. Conversely, in a recession stocks drop and inflation is low, pushing up bond prices.

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  • But, the traditional 60/40 portfolio may “no longer fully represent true diversification,” BlackRock CEO Larry Fink writes in a new letter to investors.
  • Instead, the “future standard portfolio” may move toward 50/30/20 with stocks, bonds and private assets like real estate, infrastructure and private credit, Fink writes.
  • Here’s what experts say individual investors may want to consider before dabbling in private investments.

It may be time to rethink the traditional 60/40 investment portfolio, according to BlackRock CEO Larry Fink. In a new letter to investors, Fink writes the traditional allocation comprised of 60% stocks and 40% bonds that dates back to the 1950s “may no longer fully represent true diversification.“

DI-WORSIFICATION: https://medicalexecutivepost.com/2024/04/09/what-is-financial-portfolio-di-worsification-2/

EDUCATION: Books

SPEAKING: Dr. Marcinko will be speaking and lecturing, signing and opining, teaching and preaching, storming and performing at many locations throughout the USA this year! His tour of witty and serious pontifications may be scheduled on a planned or ad-hoc basis; for public or private meetings and gatherings; formally, informally, or over lunch or dinner. All medical societies, financial advisory firms or Broker-Dealers are encouraged to submit a RFP for speaking engagements: MarcinkoAdvisors@outlook.com 

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CRYPTOCURRENCY: Real Money-or Not?

Posted on March 27, 2025 by Dr. David Edward Marcinko MBA MEd CMP™

By Rick Kahler CFP®

http://www.KahlerFinancial.com

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Is cryptocurrency really money?

For years, I thought of cryptocurrency as a digital replacement for traditional money. After all, Bitcoin has “coin” right in the name. But let’s be honest: if Bitcoin is a currency, then my mother’s old Beanie Baby collection is a retirement fund.

A real currency needs to be stable. It should allow you to buy a coffee today without wondering whether, by tomorrow, that same amount could buy a car—or be worth nothing at all. Bitcoin and its kin like Ethereum and Dogecoin fail this test spectacularly.

Recently I have realized that cryptocurrency might be something even bigger and stranger than currency. It is not just digital money; it’s a bet on the huge global demand for financial autonomy.

In an age where every dollar is tracked, crypto offers an escape from traditional financial oversight. That makes it attractive not just to cybercriminals and tax evaders, but also to privacy advocates, speculators, and people living under restrictive financial policies. It doesn’t replace traditional money, it sidesteps it. It allows people to move, store, create, and destroy wealth outside of conventional banking systems. Some use it for transactions. Others see it as a hedge against inflation or a bet on the future of decentralized finance. Governments and banks don’t quite know what to do with it.

Crypto exists in a financial gray zone. It’s not widely accepted for everyday purchases, yet it can hold immense value. Unlike cash, which is limited by geography, or gold, which requires secure storage, crypto can be transferred globally in seconds. That’s part of its appeal, especially in countries with strict capital controls or volatile economies.

At the heart of cryptocurrency’s identity is the way it is produced. Crypto isn’t just a speculative asset—it’s an industrialized wealth-creation system. Imagine a massive warehouse filled with powerful computers “manufacturing” cryptocurrency. These mining operations exist solely to create new “coins” and process transactions, consuming enormous amounts of electricity in the process. The larger the operation, the more crypto it produces.

This is not how traditional currencies work. Fiat currencies are managed by central banks aiming for economic stability. Crypto, by contrast, is controlled by a decentralized network of miners and participants [block-chain]. Its supply is fixed, immune to government intervention. Some see this as a weakness. Others argue it is crypto’s greatest strength.

As Bitcoin and other major cryptocurrencies become more integrated into mainstream finance, the risks evolve. Even as regulators warn about crypto’s role in illicit activity, major corporations and investment firms are offering crypto-backed products. Some politicians, including President Trump, are discussing national Bitcoin reserves. This growing legitimacy makes crypto harder to ignore. But if crypto-backed funds become widespread, a crash could ripple far beyond crypto traders. That said, crypto remains a small fraction of global finance. Unless institutional adoption grows significantly, even a major downturn likely wouldn’t trigger systemic collapse.

Crypto’s increasing presence in finance does not make it a sound retirement investment. It is still a speculation. And speculations—whether in Bitcoin, meme stocks, or dot-com startups—are high-risk and not suitable for long-term financial security. Retirement portfolios should be built on diversification, stability, and predictable returns. Crypto offers none of these.

For years, I saw crypto as a failed currency. What I now think it to be is a decentralized speculative asset, driven by a growing demand to bypass traditional financial systems. Its future remains uncertain. As regulation increases and mainstream adoption expands, its role will continue to shift. But crypto is no longer just a niche experiment. It has become a financial force that governments, institutions, and individuals must reckon with—whether they embrace it or try to control it.

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REQUEST “PROFESSIONAL PORTFOLIO CONSTRUCTION” For Physicians [The Doctor Effect]

Posted on March 26, 2025 by Dr. David Edward Marcinko MBA MEd CMP™

A FREE WHITE PAPER UPON E-MAIL REQUEST

SPONSOR: http://www.MarcinkoAssociates.com

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Several years ago we noted that far too many mid-career, mature and physician clients using traditional stock brokers, management consultants and “financial advisors”, seemed to be less successful than those who went it alone. These Do-it-Yourselfers [DIYs] had setbacks and made mistakes, for sure. But, the ME Inc,. doctors seemed to learn from their mistakes and did not incur the high management and service fees demanded from general or retail one-size-fits-all “advisors.”

In fact, an informal inverse related relationship was noted, and dubbed the “Doctor Effect.” In other words, the more consultants an individual doctor retained; the less well they did in all disciplines of the financial planning, professional portfolio and investing continuum.

Of course, the reason for this discrepancy eluded many of them as Wall Street brokerages and wire-houses flooded the media with messages, infomercials, print, radio, TV, texts, tweets, and internet ads to the contrary. Rather than self-learn the basics, the prevailing sentiment seemed to purse the holy grail of finding the “perfect financial advisor.” This realization was a confirmation of the industry culture which seemed to be: Bread for the advisor – Crumbs for the client!

And so, we at the the Institute of Medical Business Advisors Inc. (iMBA), and this Medical Executive-Post, formed a cadre’ of technology focused and highly educated doctors, financial advisors, attorneys, accountants, psychologists and educational visionaries who decided there must be a better way for their healthcare colleagues to receive financial planning advice, products and related management services within a culture of fiduciary responsibility.

We trust you agree with this ME Inc philosophy as illustrated in this free white paper available upon request.

PROFESSIONAL PORTFOLIO CONSTRUCTION [Investing Assets and their Management]
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Email whiote paper request here: MarcinkoAdvisors@outlook.com

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WORKER’S COMPENSATION: Physician Insurance

Posted on March 22, 2025 by Dr. David Edward Marcinko MBA MEd CMP™

By Staff Reporters

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While some medical practitioners and facilities can operate without Professional Liability Insurance coverage, one business related insurance that cannot / should not be avoided is Worker’s Compensation.  Employers in all but seven states – so-called “monopolistic” states because they have their own state funds, are under statutory obligation to provide coverage for their employees.  Historically, Worker’s Compensation pre-dates Social Security entitlements and well before the emergence of employer sponsored group benefits.

The coverage under worker’s compensation provides for lost income due to on-the-job accidents or work-related disability or death and the amount of benefits vary by state.  In some instances, the coverage will reimburse the employee for medical expenses incurred with the accident. 

The four general benefits covered under Worker’s Compensation are:

Medical Care – for expenses incurred usually without limitations on amount or period of care.

Disability Income – payable for both total and partial disability and is usually based on 66 2/3 percent of their wage base.

Death Benefits – generally fall into two categories; one a flat amount for “burial” insurance; and two, survivor benefits.  Though varying by state, these benefits are similar to the disability payment (a percentage of weekly base wages) but may be capped as to total benefit, such as $50,000 or a period, such as 10 years

Rehabilitation Benefits – includes not only medical rehabilitation, but vocational rehabilitation, vocational counseling, retraining or educational benefits, and job placement

Traditionally, the secondary purpose of Worker’s Compensation was to reduce potential litigation because employees accepting the benefits from a Worker’s Compensation claim generally waived their right to sue their employer. 

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However, in our litigious society, this “protective shelter” has been severely tested and is crumbling.

Employers may provide their Worker’s Compensation three ways:

  • Private commercial insurance
  • State government funds
  • Self-insurance

Very few factors drive the premium structure – the occupation of the workers is the single most important determinant of premiums.  An office worker may have premiums as low as $.10 per hundred of wages and a coal miner may exceed $50.00 per hundred of wages.  Generally speaking, however, Worker’s Compensation premiums for the medical profession or healthcare worker are among the lowest available.

Therefore, for the medical practice, some physicians may consider self-insurance because the weekly benefits are typically below $500, thus making this decision attractive. 

Alternatively, because officers and owners can elect not to be covered by Worker’s Compensation, the decision to purchase coverage from a private insurance company may afford inexpensive assurance that the benefits will be conveniently provided, and administered, by a private insurance company for their employees.

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HEDGE FUND: Terms and Definitions

Posted on March 22, 2025 by Dr. David Edward Marcinko MBA MEd CMP™

By Staff Reporters

SPONSOR: http://www.MarcinkoAssociates.com

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  • Absolute Return – the goal is to have a positive return, regardless of market direction.  An absolute return strategy is not managed relative to a market index.
  • Accredited Investor – wealthy individual or well-capitalized institutions covered under Regulation D of the Securities Act of 1933.
  • Alpha – the return to a portfolio over and above that of an appropriate benchmark portfolio (the manager’s “value added”).
  • Arbitrage – any strategy that invests long in an asset, and short in a related asset, hoping the prices  will converge.
  • Attribution – the process of “attributing” returns to their sources.  For example, did the returns to a portfolio (over and above some benchmark) come from stock selection, industry/sector over- or under-weighting or factor weighting.  Software programs are helpful in reporting an attribution.
  • Beta – a measure of systematic (i.e., non-diversifiable) risk.  The goal is to quantify how much systematic risk is being taken by the fund manager vis-à-vis different risk factors, so that one can estimate the alpha or value-added on a risk-adjusted basis.
  • Correlation – a measure of how strategy  returns  move with one another, in a range of –1 to +1.  A correlation of –1 implies that the strategies move in opposite directions.  In constructing a portfolio of hedge funds, one usually wants to combine a number of non-correlated strategies (with decent expected returns) to be well diversified.
  • Drawdown – the percentage loss from a fund’s highest value to its lowest, over a particular time frame.  A fund’s “maximum drawdown” is often looked at as a measure of potential risk.
  • Hurdle Rate – the return where the manager begins to earn incentive fees.  If the hurdle rate is 5% and the fund earns 15% for the year, then incentive fees are applied to the 10% difference.
  • Leverage – one uses leverage if he borrows money to increase his position in a security.  If one uses leverage and makes good investment decisions, leverage can magnify the gain.  However, it can also magnify a loss.
  • Opportunistic – a general term that describes an aggressive strategy with a goal of making money (as opposed to holding on to the money one already has).

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  • Pairs Trading – usually refers to a long/short strategy where one stock is bought long, and a similar stock is sold short, often within the same industry.  Buying the stock of Home Depot and shorting Lowe’s in an equal amount would be an example.
  • Portfolio Simulation – involves testing an investment strategy by “simulating” it with a database and analytic software.  Often referred to as “backtesting” a strategy.  The simulated returns of the strategy are compared to those of a benchmark over a specific time frame to see if it can beat that benchmark.
  • Sharpe Ratio – a measure of risk-adjusted return, computed by dividing a fund’s return over the risk-free rate by the standard deviation of returns.  The idea is to understand how much risk was undertaken to generate the alpha.
  • Short Rebate – if you borrow stock and then sell it short, you have cash in your account.  The short rebate is the interest earned on that cash.
  • R-Squared – a measure of how closely a portfolio’s performance varies with the performance of a benchmark, and thus a measure of what portion of its performance can be explained by the performance of the overall market or index.  Hedge fund investors want to know how much performance can be explained by market exposure versus manager skill.
  • Transportable Alpha – the alpha of one active strategy can be combined with another asset class.  For example, an equity market-neutral strategy’s value-added can be “transported” to a fixed income asset class by simply buying a fixed income futures contract.  The total return comes from both sources.
  • Value at Risk – a technique which uses the statistical analysis of historical market trends and volatilities to estimate the likelihood that a specific portfolio’s losses will exceed a certain amount.

Cite: https://www.hedgefundmarketing.org/

EDUCATION: Books

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LIFE INSURANCE: Split Dollar Plans

Posted on March 19, 2025 by Dr. David Edward Marcinko MBA MEd CMP™

By Staff Reporters

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Split-Dollar Life Insurance: An arrangement under which a life insurance policy’s premium, cash values, and death benefit are split between two parties—usually a corporation and a key employee or executive. Under such an arrangement an employer may own the policy and pay the premiums and give a key employee or executive the right to name the recipient of the death benefit.

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Several factors will affect the cost and availability of life insurance, including age, health, and the type and amount of insurance purchased. Life insurance policies have expenses, including mortality and other charges. If a policy is surrendered prematurely, the policy holder also may pay surrender charges and have income tax implications. You should consider determining whether you are insurable before implementing a strategy involving life insurance.

Any guarantees associated with a policy are dependent on the ability of the issuing insurance company to continue making claim payments.

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FINANCIAL ADVISORS: Real Monetary Worth?

Posted on March 18, 2025 by Dr. David Edward Marcinko MBA MEd CMP™

BY DR. DAVID EDWARD MARCINKO; MBA MEd CMP®

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SPONSOR: http://www.MarcinkoAssociates.com

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SO – HOW MUCH IS A “FINANCIAL ADVISOR” REALLY WORTH?

This blog holds a rather uncomplimentary opinion of financial advisors, and the financial services and brokerage industry as a whole; deserved, or not? The entire site hints at this attitude as well, in favor of a going it alone or ME, Inc investing when possible. Nevertheless, it is reasonable to wonder how much boost in net-returns might an educated and informed, fee transparent and honest, fiduciary focused “financial advisor” add to a clients’ investment portfolio; all things being equal [ceteris paribus].

And, can it be quantified?

Well, according to Vanguard Brokerage Services®, perhaps as much as 3%? In a decade long paper from the Valley Forge, PA based mutual fund and ETF giant, Vanguard said financial advisors can generate returns through a framework focused on five wealth management principles:

• Being an effective behavioral coach: Helping clients maintain a long-term perspective and a disciplined approach is arguably one of the most important elements of financial advice. (Potential value added: up to 1.50%).

• Applying an asset location strategy: The allocation of assets between taxable and tax-advantaged accounts is one tool an advisor can employ that can add value each year. (Potential value added: from 0% to 0.75%).

• Employing cost-effective investments: This component of every advisor’s tool kit is based on simple math: Gross return less costs equals net return. (Potential value added: up to 0.45%).

• Maintaining the proper allocation through rebalancing: Over time, as investments produce various returns, a portfolio will likely drift from its target allocation. An advisor can add value by ensuring the portfolio’s risk/return characteristics stay consistent with a client’s preferences. (Potential value added: up to 0.35%).

• Implementing a spending strategy: As the retiree population grows, an advisor can help clients make important decisions about how to spend from their portfolios. (Potential value added: up to 0.70%).

Source: Financial Advisor Magazine, page 20, April 2014.

Assessment

However, Vanguard notes that while it’s possible all of these principles could add up to 3% in net returns for clients, it’s more likely to be an intermittent number than an annual one because some of the best opportunities to add value happen during extreme market lows and highs when angst or giddiness [fear and greed] can cause investors to bail on their well-thought-out investment plans.

And, is the study applicable to doctors and allied healthcare providers? Doe Vanguard have a vested interest in the topic. What about fee based versus fee-only financial advice?

Conclusion

Finally, recognize the plethora of other financial planning life-cycle topics addressed in this ME-P were not included in the Vanguard investment portfolio-only study a decade ago. 

And what about today with contemporaneous internet advising, chat-rooms, linkedin, robo-advisors, reddit and the like?

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BIN Credit Card Attack?

Posted on March 17, 2025 by Dr. David Edward Marcinko MBA MEd CMP™

BANK IDENTIFICATION NUMBER – DEFINED

By Staff Reporters

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What Is a BIN Attack?

The BIN, or the Bank Identification Number, is the first six digits on a credit card. These are always tied to its issuing institution – usually a bank. In a BIN attack, fraudsters use these six numbers to algorithmically try to generate all the other legitimate numbers, in the hopes of generating a usable card number.  

How Does a BIN Attack Work?

Fraudsters conduct BIN attacks by generating hundreds of thousands of possible credit card numbers and testing them out.

  1. A fraudster looks up the BIN of the bank they will target. Ranging from four to six digits, this information is in the public domain and is thus easy to source.
  2. Using dedicated software such as an auto-dialer, they generate thousands, often tens of thousands, combinations of possible existing card numbers by this issuer.
  3. At this point, these credentials need to be tested. The fraudster identifies a suitable online shop or donation page.
  4. They start card testing by attempting a small payment with each generated card number.
  5. They keep track of the small percentage of card details that worked, which they are ready to use in earnest for their fraudulent pursuits. 

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Remember that the fraudster will start off with only six digits, yet there are many more card details required for a successful transaction. If those are entered erroneously, the transaction will decline. This includes the CVV number, the expiration date, as well as likely address verification service (AVS) failures. Card testing transactions are executed remotely in a fast fashion, so distance checks should also be a hint as well as velocity alerts. 

Fraudsters may use bad merchant accounts directly for this purpose, or more frequently involve multiple online stores and services during a BIN attack, as their attempts keep getting blocked at most outlets.

MORE: https://seon.io/resources/dictionary/bin-attack/

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MEDICAL PRACTICE: Valuation Adjustments

Posted on March 17, 2025 by Dr. David Edward Marcinko MBA MEd CMP™

NET INCOME STATEMENT AND BALANCE SHEET ADJUSTMENTS

By Dr. David Edward Marcinko; MBA MEd CMP®

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SPONSOR: http://www.MarcinkoAssociates.com

Net Income Statement Adjustments

When analyzing a set of financial statements to determine practice value, adjustments (normalizations) generally are needed to produce a clearer picture of likely future income and distributable cash flow. It also allows more of an “apples to apples” line item comparison. This normalization process usually consists of making three main adjustments to a medical practice’s net income (profit and loss) statement.

1. Non-Recurring Items: Estimates of future distributable cash flow should exclude non-recurring items. Proceeds from the settlement of litigation, one-time gains/losses from the selling of assets or equipment, and large write-offs that are not expected to reoccur, each represent potential nonrecurring items. The impact of nonrecurring events should be removed from the practice’s financial statements to produce a clearer picture of likely future income and cash flow.

2. Perquisites: The buyer of a medical practice may plan to spend more or less than the current doctor-owner for physician executive compensation, travel and entertainment expenses, and other perquisites of current management. When determining future distributable cash flow, income adjustments to the current level of expenditures should be made for these items.

3. Non-cash Expenses: Depreciation expense, amortization expense, and bad debt expense are all non-cash items which impact reported profitability. When determining distributable cash flow, you must analyze the link between non-cash expenses and expected cash expenditures.

The annual depreciation expense is a proxy for likely capital expenditures over time. When capital expenditures and depreciation are not similar over time, an adjustment to expected cash flow is necessary. Some practices reduce income through the use of bad debt expense rather than direct write-offs. Bad debt expense is a non-cash expense that represents an estimate of the dollar volume of write-offs that are likely to occur during a year. If bad debt expense is understated, practice profitability will be overstated.

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Balance Sheet Adjustments

Adjustments also can be made to a practice’s balance sheet to remove non-operating assets and liabilities, and to restate asset and liability value at market rates (rather than cost rates). Assets and liabilities that are unrelated to the core practice being valued should be added to or subtracted from the value, depending on whether they are acquired by the buyer.

Examples include the asset value less outstanding debt of a vacant parcel of land, and marketable securities that are not needed to operate the practice. Other non-operating assets, such as the cash surrender value of officer life insurance, generally are liquidated by the seller and are not part of the business transaction.

EDUCATION: Books

SPEAKING: Dr. Marcinko will be speaking and lecturing, signing and opining, teaching and preaching, storming and performing at many locations throughout the USA this year! His tour of witty and serious pontifications may be scheduled on a planned or ad-hoc basis; for public or private meetings and gatherings; formally, informally, or over lunch or dinner. All medical societies, financial advisory firms or Broker-Dealers are encouraged to submit a RFP for speaking engagements: CONTACT: MarcinkoAdvisors@outlook.com 

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POA: Power of Attorney Mistakes

Posted on March 17, 2025 by Dr. David Edward Marcinko MBA MEd CMP™

The Power of Attorney Mistake That Could Cost You Everything

By Rick Kahler CFP®

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Recently, reading a training manual on elder abuse, I was reminded of a financial risk that is often overlooked. One of the fastest and easiest ways to unravel your financial security is to have the wrong person gain control of your money.

The example in the manual mirrored a heartbreaking situation I once experienced with a long-term client. As her mental and physical health declined, this single woman moved into assisted living. Her newly designated power of attorney, a relative from out of town, took control of her financial affairs.

Almost immediately, without consulting us, the relative began making large withdrawals, closed her accounts, and transferred funds elsewhere. They challenged the financial plan, investments, and strategies we had established to safeguard the client’s financial security and provide for her long-term care. Even though their actions threatened the client’s wellbeing, we were powerless to stop them. Our only recourse was to report the behavior to the authorities.

This heartbreaking and frustrating experience underscored just how critical it is to be mindful when executing a Power of Attorney. Besides designating someone you trust, it is wise to build in safeguards to prevent even a well-meaning relative from inadvertently derailing a carefully constructed financial plan.

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One such safeguard is to include a financial advisor in your POA—as long as that person is a fee-only, fiduciary advisor with an obligation to act in your best interests. In many cases, advisors are hesitant to suggest this option because they are sensitive to the potential conflict of interest and do not want to appear self-serving. An unfortunate reality is that you should be cautious if an advisor, particularly one who sells products on commission, seems eager to be added to your POA.

Including your financial advisor in your POA does not mean you designate them as your agent to manage your affairs. Instead, you include a clause naming them as the professional of record you want your designated agent to continue working with. This creates continuity and accountability. It prevents your agent from replacing your advisor with someone who may be unfamiliar with your needs and goals, unqualified, or untrustworthy.

Your advisor might also recommend adding a secondary safeguard, such as naming an attorney or accountant to oversee the selection of a successor advisor in case your current advisor is unable to continue. This additional layer of protection ensures that the financial professionals guiding your portfolio remain aligned with your best interests. Taking these extra steps can save you—and your loved ones—from significant financial stress down the road.

Including safeguards in your POA is not about mistrusting your loved ones, but about equipping them with the right resources and support to act in your best interest. Financial management is complex, and it requires expertise that most people, even those with the best intentions, may not possess.

One of the hardest parts about planning for diminished financial capacity is the emotional aspect. No one likes to imagine a time when they might not be able to manage their own money. But in reality, taking steps now to protect your financial future is the ultimate act of control. It can help ensure that your wishes are respected and the financial foundation you’ve worked so hard to build remains intact.

Remember, too, that avoiding conversations often increases financial vulnerability. If you don’t have a POA or aren’t comfortable with what you do have, now is the time to bring it up with your advisor, attorney, or a trusted family member. These safeguards are about protecting yourself. They also support those you will rely on to care for you and your financial legacy,

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MEDICAL LABORATORY RESULTS: Direct Patient Access?

Posted on March 15, 2025 by Dr. David Edward Marcinko MBA MEd CMP™

PROS and CONS

BY DR. DAVID EDWARD MARCINKO MBA MEd CMP®

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SPONSOR: http://www.MarcinkoAssociates.com

§ DIRECT PATIENT ACCESS TO LABORATORY RESULTS

According to Patricia Salber MD [personal communication], there are a number of reasons why direct patient access to laboratory medical results is a good idea:

  • Between 8 and 26% of abnormal test results, including those suspicious for cancer, are not followed up in a timely manner.  Direct access could help reduce the number of times this occurs
  • Self-management, particularly of chronic illness has known benefits.  Just like the QS people, many folks with chronic illness obtain and manage to self-acquired lab results every day via gluco-meters, home pulmonary function tests, blood pressure measurements, and so forth.  Direct access to laboratory-acquired data, one could argue is a continuation of that personal responsibility
  • Patients want to be notified about their results in what they perceive as a timely fashion.  In one study, patients who received direct notification of their bone density tests results were more likely to perceive they had timely notification compared to usual care even though there was no measurable effect on actual treatment received after three months
  • Being more responsible for test results could encourage consumers to try to learn more about the meaning of the test results, conceivably increasing their health literacy. 

But, the arguments against direct access discussed include the following:

  • Patients prefer their physicians contact them directly when they have abnormal test results, although the major studies published in 2005 and 2009, preceded the extraordinary use of the internet to access health information that exists today.
  • There is concern over whether patients will know what to do when they receive the results – will they make erroneous interpretations or fail to contact their docs?  This could be, but the intent of the proposed rule is shared access to the results.  We suspect if the rule become law, docs will develop better notification mechanisms so that they reach the patient before the patient directly accesses the results or lab companies will design better lab test notifications with easy-to-understand interpretations or a whole new industry will appear that can provide instantly available individualized lab interpretation…or maybe all three of these would happen and that would be a very good thing.
  • Unknown impact of dual notification (doctors and patients) of lab test results on physician behavior…would docs simply shift responsibility for initiating follow-up care from themselves to their patients?
  • Would direct access of life-changing lab tests, such as HIV or malignancy, lead to unnecessary patient anxiety – or worse?  (Conversely, is there less anxiety, desperation, or suicidal ideation if the bad news is delivered face to face? 
  • Individuals likely may contact their physicians immediately after getting the lab results asking for a telephonic or face-to-face interpretation … it is not known how this would impact physician workload and/or potential for reimbursement [personal communication, Richard Hudson DO, Atlanta, GA].

EDUCATION: Books

SPEAKING: Dr. Marcinko will be speaking and lecturing, signing and opining, teaching and preaching, storming and performing at many locations throughout the USA this year! His tour of witty and serious pontifications may be scheduled on a planned or ad-hoc basis; for public or private meetings and gatherings; formally, informally, or over lunch or dinner. All medical societies, financial advisory firms or Broker-Dealers are encouraged to submit a RFP for speaking engagements: CONTACT: MarcinkoAdvisors@outlook.com 

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PROSPECT THEORY: Physician-Client Empowerment for Financial Decision Making

Posted on March 13, 2025 by Dr. David Edward Marcinko MBA MEd CMP™

BEHAVIORAL ECONOMICS

By Staff Reporters

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Prospect theory is a psychological and behavioral economics theory developed by Daniel Kahneman and Amos Tversky in 1979. It explains how people make decisions when faced with alternatives involving risk, probability, and uncertainty. According to this theory, decisions are influenced by perceived losses or gains.

Example:

Amanda, a DO client, was just informed by her financial advisor that she needed to re-launch her 403-b retirement plan. Since she was leery about investing, she quietly wondered why she couldn’t DIY. Little does her FA know that she doesn’t intend to follow his advice, anyway! So, what went wrong?

The answer may be that her advisor didn’t deploy a behavioral economics framework to support her decision-making. One such framework is the “prospect theory” model that boils client decision-making into a “three step heuristic.”
 
Prospect theory makes the unspoken biases that we all have more explicit. By identifying all the background assumptions and preferences that clients [patients] bring to the office, decision-making can be crafted so that everyone [family, doctor and patient] or [FA, client and spouse] is on the same page. Briefly, the three steps are:

1. Simplify choices by focusing on the key differences between investment [treatment] options such as stock, bonds, cash, and index funds. 

2. Understanding that clients [patients] prefer greater certainty when it comes to pursuing financial [health] gains and are willing to accept uncertainty when trying to avoid a loss [illness].

3. Cognitive processes lead clients and patients to overestimate the value of their choices thanks to survivor bias, cognitive dissonance, appeals to authority and hindsight biases.

Assessment

Much like healthcare today, the current mass-customized approaches to the financial services industry falls short of recognizing more personalized advisory approaches like prospect theory and assisted client-centered investment decision-making.

 Jaan E. Sidorov MD [Harrisburg, PA]   

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STRADDLES: Offsetting Personal Property Positions and Stock

Posted on March 13, 2025 by Dr. David Edward Marcinko MBA MEd CMP™

By Staff Reporters and IRS

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Straddles: A straddle is any set of offsetting positions on personal property. For example, a straddle may consist of a purchased option to buy and a purchased option to sell on the same number of shares of the security, with the same exercise price and period.

Personal property.

This is any actively traded property. It includes stock options and contracts to buy stock but generally does not include stock.

Straddle rules for stock.

Although stock is generally excluded from the definition of personal property when applying the straddle rules, it is included in the following two situations.

  1. The stock is of a type that is actively traded, and at least one of the offsetting positions is a position on that stock or substantially similar or related property.
  2. The stock is in a corporation formed or availed of to take positions in personal property that offset positions taken by any shareholder.

Note

For positions established before October 22, 2004, condition 1 above does not apply. Instead, personal property includes stock if condition 2 above applies or the stock was part of a straddle in which at least one of the offsetting positions was:

  • An option to buy or sell the stock or substantially identical stock or securities,
  • A securities futures contract on the stock or substantially identical stock or securities, or
  • A position on substantially similar or related property (other than stock).

Position

A position is an interest in personal property. A position can be a forward or futures contract or an option.

An interest in a loan denominated in a foreign currency is treated as a position in that currency. For the straddle rules, foreign currency for which there is an active inter bank market is considered to be actively traded personal property.

Offsetting position

This is a position that substantially reduces any risk of loss you may have from holding another position. However, if a position is part of a straddle that is not an identified straddle, do not treat it as offsetting to a position that is part of an identified straddle.

Presumed offsetting positions

Two or more positions will be presumed to be offsetting if:

  • The positions are established in the same personal property (or in a contract for this property), and the value of one or more positions varies inversely with the value of one or more of the other positions;
  • The positions are in the same personal property, even if this property is in a substantially changed form, and the positions’ values vary inversely as described in the first condition;
  • The positions are in debt instruments with a similar maturity, and the positions’ values vary inversely as described in the first condition;
  • The positions are sold or marketed as offsetting positions, whether or not the positions are called a straddle, spread, butterfly, or any similar name; or
  • The aggregate margin requirement for the positions is lower than the sum of the margin requirements for each position if held separately.

Related persons

To determine if two or more positions are offsetting, you will be treated as holding any position your spouse holds during the same period. If you take into account part or all of the gain or loss for a position held by a flow-through entity, such as a partnership or trust, you are also considered to hold that position.

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STUPID COMMENTS: Financial Advisors Say to Physician Clients

Posted on March 12, 2025 by Dr. David Edward Marcinko MBA MEd CMP™

BY DR. DAVID EDWARD MARCINKO; MBA MEd CMP®

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SPONSOR: http://www.MarcinkoAssociates.com

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Some Stupid Things Financial Advisors Say to Physician Clients

A few years ago and just for giggles, colleague Lon Jefferies MBA CFP® and I collected a list of dumb-stupid things said by some Financial Advisors to their doctor, dentist, nurse and and other medical professional clients, along with some recommended under-breath rejoinders:

  • “They don’t have any debt except for a mortgage and student loans.” OK. And I’m vegan except for bacon-wrapped steak.
  • “Earnings were positive before one-time charges.” This is Wall Street’s equivalent of, “Other than that Mrs. Lincoln; how was the play?”
  • “Earnings missed estimates.” No. Earnings don’t miss estimates; estimates miss earnings. No one ever says “the weather missed estimates.” They blame the weatherman for getting it wrong. Finance is the only industry where people blame their poor forecasting skills on reality. 
  • “Earnings met expectations, but analysts were looking for a beat.” If you’re expecting earnings to beat expectations, you don’t know what the word “expectations” means.
  • “It’s a Ponzi scheme.” The number of things called Ponzi schemes that are actually Ponzi schemes rounds to zero. It’s become a synonym for “thing I disagree with.” 
  • “The [thing not going perfectly] crisis.” Boy who cried wolf, meet analyst who called crisis. 
  • “He predicted the market crash in 2008.” He also predicted a crash in 2006, 2004, 2003, 2001, 1998, 1997, 1995, 1992, 1989, 1984, 1971…
  • “More buyers than sellers.” This is the equivalent of saying someone has more mothers than fathers. There’s one buyer and one seller for every trade. Every single one.
  • “Stocks suffer their biggest drop since September.” You know September was only six weeks ago, right? 
  • “We’re cautiously optimistic.” You’re also an oxymoron. 
  • [Guy on TV]: “It’s time to [buy/sell] stocks.” Who is this advice for? A 20-year-old with 60 years of investing in front of him, or a 82-year-old widow who needs money for a nursing home? Doesn’t that make a difference?
  • “We’re neutral on this stock.” Stop it. You don’t deserve a paycheck for that.
  • “There’s minimal downside on this stock.” Some lessons have to be learned the hard way.
  • “We’re trying to maximize returns and minimize risks.” Unlike everyone else, who are just dying to set their money ablaze!
  • “Shares fell after the company lowered guidance.” Guys, they just proved their guidance can be wrong. Why are you taking this new one seriously? 
  • “Our bullish case is conservative.” Then it’s not a bullish case. It’s a conservative case. Those words mean opposite things.
  • “We look where others don’t.” This is said by so many investors that it has to be untrue most of the time. 
  • “Is [X] the next black swan?” Nassim Taleb’s blood pressure rises every time someone says this. You can’t predict black swans. That’s what makes them dangerous.
  • “We’re waiting for more certainty.” Good call. Like in 1929, 1999 and 2007, when everyone knew exactly what the future looked like. Can’t wait!
  • “The Dow is down 50 points as investors react to news of [X].” Stop it – you’re just making stuff up. “Stocks are down and no one knows why” is the only honest headline in this category. 
  • “Investment guru [insert name] says stocks are [insert forecast].” Go to Morningstar.com. Look up that guru’s track record against their benchmark. More often than not, their career performance lags an index fund. Stop calling them gurus.
  • “We’re constructive on the market.” I have no idea what that means. I don’t think you do, either.
  • “[Noun] [verb] bubble.” (That’s a sarcastic observation from investor Eddy Elfenbein.) 
  • “Investors are fleeing the market.” Every stock is owned by someone all the time. 
  • “We expect more volatility.” There has never been a time when this was not the case. Let me guess, you also expect more winters? 
  • “This is a strong buy.” What do I do with this? Click the mouse harder when placing the order in my brokerage account?
  • “He was tired of throwing his money away renting, so he bought a house.” He knows a mortgage is renting money from a bank, right?
  • “This is a cyclical bull market in a secular bear.” Vapid nonsense.  
  • “Will Obamacare ruin the economy?” No. And get a grip. 

So, don’t let these aphorisms blind you to the critical thinking skills you learned in college, honed in medical school and apply every day in life.

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EDUCATION: Books

SPEAKING: Dr. Marcinko will be speaking and lecturing, signing and opining, teaching and preaching, storming and performing at many locations throughout the USA this year! His tour of witty and serious pontifications may be scheduled on a planned or ad-hoc basis; for public or private meetings and gatherings; formally, informally, or over lunch or dinner. All medical societies, financial advisory firms or Broker-Dealers are encouraged to submit a RFP for speaking engagements: CONTACT: MarcinkoAdvisors@outlook.com 

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How to Invest When There’s Nowhere to Hide

Posted on March 10, 2025 by Dr. David Edward Marcinko MBA MEd CMP™

By Vitaliy Katsenelson; CFA

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How to Invest When There’s Nowhere to Hide
I was having lunch with a close friend of mine. He mentioned that he had accumulated a significant sum of money and did not know what to do with it. It was sitting in bonds, and inflation was eating its purchasing power at a very rapid rate.

He is a dentist and had originally thought about expanding his business, but a shortage of labor and surging wages turned expanding into a risky and low-return investment. He complained that the stock market was extremely expensive. I agreed.*

He said that the only thing left was residential real estate. I pushed back. “What do you think will happen to the affordability of houses if – and most likely when – interest rates go up? Inflation is now 6%. I don’t know where it will be in a year or two, but what if it becomes a staple of the economy? Interest rates will not be where they are today. Even at 5% interest rates [I know, a number unimaginable today] houses become unaffordable to a significant portion of the population. Yes, borrowers’ incomes will be higher in nominal terms, but the impact of the doubling of interest rates on the cost of mortgages will be devastating to affordability.”

He rejoined, “But look at what happened to housing over the last twenty years. Housing prices have consistently increased, even despite the financial crisis.”

I agreed, but I qualified his statement: “Over the past twenty, actually thirty, years interest rates declined. I honestly don’t know where interest rates will be in the future. But probabilistically, knowing what we know now, the chances that they are going to be higher, much higher, are more likely than their staying low. Especially if you think that inflation will persist.”

We quickly shifted our conversation toward more meaningful topics, like kids.

It seems that every year I think we have finally reached the peak of crazy, only to be proven wrong the next year. The stock market and thus index funds, just like real estate, have only gone one way – up. Index funds became the blunt instrument of choice in an always-rising market. So far, this choice has paid off nicely.

The market is the most expensive it has ever been, and thus future returns of the market and index funds will be unexciting. (I am being gentle here.)

You don’t have to be a stock market junkie to notice the pervasive feeling of euphoria. But euphoria is a temporary, not a permanent emotion; and at least when it comes to the stock market, it is usually supplanted by despair. Market appreciation that was driven by expanding valuations was not a gift but a loan – the type of loan that must always be paid back with a high rate of interest.

I don’t know what straw will break the feeble back of this market or what will cause the music to stop (there, you got two analogies for the price of none). We are in an environment where there are very few good options. If you do nothing, your savings will be eaten away by inflation. If you do something, you find that most assets, including the stock market as a whole, are incredibly overvalued.

This is why what we do at IMA is so important.

We are doing the only sensible thing that you can do today. We spend very little time thinking about straws or what will cause the music to stop or how overvalued the market is. We are focusing all our energy on patiently building a portfolio of high-quality, cash-generative, significantly undervalued businesses that have pricing power.

This has admittedly been less rewarding than taking risky bets on unimaginably expensive assets. It may lack the excitement of sinking money into the darlings you see in the news every day, but we hope that our stocks will look like rare gems when the euphoria condenses into despair. As we keep repeating in every letter, the market is insanely overvalued. Our portfolio is anything but – we don’t own “the market”.

*A question may arise: Why did I not tell my dentist friend to pick individual stocks? He runs a busy dental practice and wouldn’t have the time or the training to pick stocks.

Why didn’t I offer him our services? IMA manages all my and my family’s liquid assets, but I have a rule that I never (ever!) break – I don’t manage my friends’ money. I’ll help them as much as possible with free advice but will never have a professional relationship with them. I intentionally create a separation between my personal and professional lives. After a difficult day in the market, I want to be able to go for beers with friends and leave the market at the office.

Also, this simplifies my relationships with my friends. There is no ambiguity in our friendship.

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RELIGION STOCKS: Hidden Risks

Posted on March 8, 2025 by Dr. David Edward Marcinko MBA MEd CMP™

By Vitaliy Katsenelson; CFA

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The Hidden Risk in “Religion” Stocks
You can also listen to a professional narration of this article on iTunes & online.
ENCORE: March 22, 2004

A basic property of religion is that the believer takes a leap of faith: to believe without expecting proof. Often you find this property of religion in other, unexpected places – for example, in the stock market. It takes a while for a company to develop a “religious” following: only a few high-quality, well-respected companies with long track records ever become worshipped by millions of investors. My partner, Michael Conn, calls these “religion stocks.” The stock has to make a lot of shareholders happy for a long period of time to form this psychological link.

The stories (which are often true) of relatives or friends buying few hundred shares of the company and becoming millionaires have to fester a while for a stock to become a religion. Little by little, the past success of the company turns into an absolute – and eternal – truth. Investors’ belief becomes set: the past success paints a clear picture of the future.

Gradually, investors turn from cautious shareholders into loud cheerleaders. Management is praised as visionary. The stock becomes a one-decision stock: buy. This euphoria is not created overnight. It takes a long time to build it, and a lot of healthy pessimists have to become converted into believers before a stock becomes a “religion.” 

Once a stock is lifted up to “religion” status, beware: Logic is out the window. Analysts start using T-bills to discount the company’s cash flows in order to justify extraordinary valuations. Why, they ask, would you use any other discount rate if there is no risk? When a T-bill doesn’t do the trick, suddenly new and “more appropriate” valuation metrics are discovered.

Other investors don’t even try to justify the valuation – the stock did well for me in the past, why would it stop working in the future? Faith has taken over the stock. Fundamentals became a casualty of “stock religion.” These stocks are widely held. The common perception is that they are not risky. 

The general public loves these companies because they can relate to the companies’ brands. A dying husband would tell his wife, “Never sell _______ (fill in the blank with the company name).” Whenever a problem surfaces at a “religion stock,” it is brushed away with the comment that “it’s not like the company is going to go out of business.” True, a “religion stock” company is a solid leader in almost every market segment where it competes and the company’s products carry a strong brand name. However, one should always remember to distinguish between good companies and good stocks.

Coca-Cola is a classic example of a “religion stock.” There are very few companies that have delivered such consistent performance for so long and have such a strong international brand name as Coca-Cola. It is hard not to admire the company.

But admiration of Coca-Cola achieved an unbelievable level in the late nineties. In the ten years leading up to 1999, Coca-Cola grew earnings at 14.5% a year, very impressive for a 103-year-old company. It had very little debt, great cash flow and a top-tier management. This admiration came at a steep price: Coca-Cola commanded a P/E of 47.5. That P/E was 2.7 times the market P/E. Even after T-bills could no longer justify Coke’s valuation, analysts started to price “hidden” assets – Coke’s worldwide brand. No money manager ever got fired for owning Coca-Cola.

The company may not have had a lot of business risk. But in 1999, the high valuation was pricing in expectations that were impossible for any mature company to meet. “The future ain’t what it used to be” – Yogi Berra never lets us down. Success over a prolonged period of time brings a problem to any company – the law of large numbers. 

Enormous domestic and international market share, combined with maturity of the soft drink market, has made it very difficult for Coca-Cola to grow earnings and sales at rates comparable to the pre-1999 years. In the past five years, earnings and sales have grown 2.5% and 1.5% respectively. After Roberto C. Goizueta’s death, Coke struggled to find a good replacement – which it acutely needed.

Old age and arthritis eventually catch up with “religion stocks.” No company can grow at a fast pace forever. Growth in earnings and sales eventually decelerates. That leads to a gradual deflation of the “religion” premium. For Coke, the descent from its “religious” status resulted in a drop of nearly 20% in the share price – versus an increase of 65% in the broad market over the same time. And at current prices, the stock still is not cheap by any means. It trades at 25 times December 2004 earnings, despite expectations for sales growth in the mid single digits and EPS growth in the low double digits. 

It takes a while for the religion premium to be totally deflated because faith is a very strong emotion. A lot of frustration with sub-par performance has to come to the surface.

Disappointment chips away at faith one day at a time. “Religion” stocks are not safe stocks. The leap of faith and perception of safety come at a large cost: the hidden risk of reduction in the “religion premium.” The risk is hidden because it never showed itself in the past. “Religion” stocks by definition have had an incredibly consistent track record. Risk was rarely observed. 

However, this hidden risk is unique because it is not a question of if it will show up but a question of when. It is very hard to predict how far the premium will inflate before it deflates – but it will deflate eventually. When it does, the damage to the portfolio can be huge.

Religion stocks generally have a disproportionate weight in portfolios because they are never sold – exposing the trying-to-be-cautious investor to even greater risks. Coca-Cola is not alone in this exclusive club. General Electric, Gillette, Berkshire Hathaway are all proud members of the “religion stock” club as well. Past members would include: Polaroid – bankrupt; Eastman Kodak – in a major restructuring; AT&T – struggling to keep its head above water. That stock is down from over $80 in 1999 to $18 today.

Emotions have no place in investing. Faith, love, hate, and disgust should be left for other aspects of our life. More often than not, emotions guide us to do the opposite of what we need to do to be successful. Investors need to be agnostic towards “religion stocks.” The comfort and false sense of certainty that those stocks bring to the portfolio come at a huge cost: prolonged under performance.

My thoughts today (20+ years later)

This is one of the first investment articles I ever wrote. I had just started writing for TheStreet.com. It’s interesting to read this article more than 20 years later. I am surprised my writing was not as bad as I had feared (though in many cases it was worse than I feared when I read my other early articles).

So much has happened since then – I am a different person today than I was back then. I have two more kids; I have written three more books and a thousand articles. The last two decades were my formative years as an investor and adult.

The goal of the article was not to make predictions but to warn readers that the long-term success of certain companies creates a cult-like following and deforms thinking. In fact, my original article – the one I submitted to TheStreet.com – did not mention any companies other than Coke. The editors wanted me to include more names so that the article would show up on more pages of Yahoo! Finance.

With the exception of Berkshire Hathaway, all of these companies have produced mediocre or horrible returns. In the best case, their fundamental returns in their old age were only a fraction of what they were when these companies were younger and the world was their oyster.

To my surprise, Coke’s stock is still trading at a high valuation. Its business has performed like the old-timer it is, with revenue and earnings growing by only 3–4% a year. The days of double-digit revenue and earnings growth were left in the 80s and 90s, though the high valuation remained. 

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BEAT: Base-Erosion Anti-Abuse Tax (BEAT)

Posted on March 7, 2025 by Dr. David Edward Marcinko MBA MEd CMP™

By Staff Reporters

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Base-Erosion Anti-Abuse Tax (BEAT): The 2017 tax reforms moved the U.S. from a worldwide taxation system to a quasi-territorial system, so foreign earnings are no longer included in a company’s domestic tax base.

To discourage companies operating in the U.S. from avoiding tax liability by shifting profits out of the country, Congress imposed a 10% minimum tax called Base-Erosion Anti-Abuse Tax (BEAT). The BEAT rate will increase from 10% to 12.5% in 2026. 

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DYING BROKE: Frugality OR Freedom

Posted on March 5, 2025 by Dr. David Edward Marcinko MBA MEd CMP™

By Rick Kahler CFP™

http://www.KahlerFinancial.com

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Dying Broke. It’s a goal for those retirees who embrace the idea of spending their hard-earned wealth during their lifetimes. Their aim is to enjoy the fruits of their labor while they can and spend the last penny just as they take their last breath. The concept feels both pragmatic and poetic.

But here’s the twist: While the concept may conjure images of lavish spending sprees and exotic vacations, that’s rarely what I see in practice. Many of my clients who identify as Die Brokers aren’t recklessly burning through their wealth. In fact, the opposite is often true.

This is because their approach to spending and giving is shaped by a lifetime of frugal money scripts that are incredibly hard to shake. Many Boomers grew up with financial uncertainty, learning to save and sacrifice to protect themselves and their families. Even after decades of financial success, those habits don’t just disappear. The idea of “spending down” their wealth, even intentionally, feels unnatural and irresponsible. There is an internal tug-of-war between their stated desire to enjoy their wealth and their deeply rooted fear of running out.

This paradox can significantly affect retirees’ financial planning. While Die Brokers may express a strong commitment to living fully, their money behavior often reveals a need for reassurance that their money will last for their lifetime.

For many Boomers, including myself, those frugal money scripts have served us well for decades. They’ve provided financial stability and peace of mind. But in this stage of life, they can also hold us back from experiencing the freedom we’ve worked so hard to achieve—especially in the time we have left when we can still physically enjoy it. The challenge is finding balance, honoring the values that got us here while allowing ourselves permission to live fully.

Shifting from a scarcity mindset to one of abundance is no small feat.

Here are four ways to start turning those old money scripts into permission to spend and give intentionally:

  1. Reframe wealth as a tool rather than a safety net. Recognize that money is about opportunity as well as security. Spending with intention can bring joy and meaning, whether it’s funding a family trip, supporting a cause, or splurging on a bucket list item.
  2. Work with your financial advisor to analyze your retirement spending and the probability of running out of money. The amount they suggest you can spend may surprise you—it’s often far higher than your frugal money scripts would lead you to believe.
  3. Experiment with incremental giving. If parting with your wealth feels daunting, start small. Gift modest amounts to family, friends, or charities and notice how it feels. Seeing the immediate impact of your generosity can help ease the transition and loosen the grip of those old money scripts.
  4. Set intentional spending goals instead of vaguely aiming to “enjoy your wealth.” Identify specific ways you want to use your money to enhance your life or the lives of others. Having a clear plan can turn spending into a meaningful act rather than an exercise in guilt.

For many of us, the Die Broke mentality is not about recklessness or extravagance. It’s about learning to let go. Despite our bold talk of spending down to the last penny, most of us will likely leave behind more than we planned. And maybe that’s just fine—especially for our kids and grand kids. Perhaps being a Die Broker is really about giving ourselves permission to live with intention, to savor what we’ve built, and to enjoy living to the fullest the rich life our frugality has helped provide.

EDUCATION: Books

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IPO: Road Show with Pros and Cons

Posted on March 2, 2025 by Dr. David Edward Marcinko MBA MEd CMP™

By Staff Reporters

SPONSOR: http://www.MarcinkoAssociates.com

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What Is a Roadshow?

In general, a roadshow is a series of meetings or presentations in which key members of a private company, usually executives, pitch the initial public offering, or IPO, to prospective investors. Effectively, the company is taking its branding message on the road to meet with investors in different cities, hence the name.

The IPO roadshow presentation is an important part of the IPO process in which a company sells new shares to the public for the first time. Whether a company’s IPO succeeds or not can hinge on interest generated among investors before the stock makes its debut on an exchange.

There are also some cases where company executives will embark on a road show to meet with investors to talk about their company, even if they’re not planning an IPO.

Pros and Cons of a Roadshow

According to Rebecca Lake, if the company goes public and no one buys its shares, then the IPO ends up being a flop, which can affect the company’s success in the near and long term. If the company experiences an IPO pop, in which its price goes much higher than its initial offering price, it could be a sign that underwriters mispriced the stock.

A roadshow is also important for helping determine how to price the company’s stock when the IPO launches. If the roadshow ends up being a smashing success, for example, that can cause the underwriters to adjust their expectations for the stock’s IPO price.

On the other hand, if the roadshow doesn’t seem to be generating much buzz around the company at all, that could cause the price to be adjusted downward.

In a worst-case scenario, the company may decide to pull the plug on the IPO altogether or to go a different route, such as a private IPO placement.

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STOCK DIVIDENDS: Company Earnings Distribution

Posted on March 2, 2025 by Dr. David Edward Marcinko MBA MEd CMP™

BY DR. DAVID EDWARD MARCINKO; MBA MEd CMP™

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SPONSOR: http://www.MarcinkoAssociates.com

DEFINITION

If the definition of a security is title to a stream of cash flows, then the dividends a company is expected to pay to equity shareholders on a periodic basis (e.g., quarterly) are a clear source of return for an investor.  A dividend is simply a distribution of (some portion of) the company’s earnings to equity shareholders.  Like a bond yield, a stock’s dividend yield can be used to measure the income return on the stock. 

To determine a stock’s dividend yield, the trailing year’s dividends per share paid are divided by the current stock price.  However, a key difference between a dividend yield and a bond yield is the level of certainty that can be assumed regarding future payments, since a bond’s coupon is generally predetermined and its payment is expected to be senior to the payment of dividends.

After a company has determined that it has earned a profit, management has to decide what to do with those profits.  One choice is to distribute the earnings to shareholders in the form of dividends, while another option is to reinvest the profits in the company.  A company’s management may determine that the shareholders interest is best served by using the earnings to pursue growth opportunities (e.g., capital expansion, research & development, etc.) at the corporate level.  Thus, when management believes that its investment opportunities are likely to produce a higher return than what investors’ could generate with their dividends or that reinvestment is needed to maintain its financial strength, the company will retain the earnings. 

One of the biggest myths in investing is capital appreciation accounts for the largest part of investors’ gains. Dividends, or cash payments to shareholders, actually account for a substantial part of an equity investor’s total return. In fact since 1926, dividends have accounted for more than 40% of the total return of the S&P 500 stock index. In the last decade (2000-2009), the S&P 500’s total return of -9% would have been a heftier loss of -24% had it not been for the 15% contribution from dividends.

History has shown that dividends have been a powerful source of total return in a diversified investment portfolio, especially during periods of market turbulence. In examining the prior eight decades of stock market performance, dividends often account for more than 2/3 of the total return (1930s, 1940s, 1970s, & 2000s).  If an investor avoided dividend paying stocks during these elongated time periods, most of the total gains would be lost. 

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DIVIDEND CONTRIBUTION OF S&P 500 RETURN BY DECADE   
 S&P 500 CumulativeDividendsAverage 
 Price %DividendTotal% of TotalPayout 
YearsChangeContribution*ReturnReturnRatio** 
       
1930s-41.9%56.0%14.1%>100%90.1% 
1940s34.8%100.3%135.0%74.3%59.4% 
1950s256.7%180.0%436.7%41.2%54.6% 
1960s53.7%54.2%107.9%50.2%56.0% 
1970s17.2%59.1%76.4%77.4%45.5% 
1980s227.4%143.1%370.5%38.6%48.6% 
1990s315.7%117.1%432.8%27.0%47.6% 
2000s-24.1%15.0%-9.1%>100%35.3% 
2010s27.9%8.4%36.3%23.1%28.4% 
as of 12/31/12      

Source: Strategas

During those decades such as the 2000s where the stock market struggled to advance, dividends were a significant element for investor survival.  This is not only due to the dividends alone, but also the risk element of stocks that pay dividends.  Dividend stocks have historically provided lower overall volatility and stronger downside protection when markets decline. Since 1927, dividend stocks have consistently held up better than the broader market during downturns. You can measure downside risk through a statistic known as downside capture ratio.

Downside capture ratio is a statistical measure of overall performance in a down stock market. An investment category, or investment manager, who has a down-market ratio less than 100 has outperformed the index during a falling stock market. 

For example, a down-market capture ratio of 80 indicates that the portfolio measure declined only 80% as much as the index during the period. The downside capture ratio of high-dividend-yielding stocks, since 1927, has been 81% or lower over various long-term periods.  Put a better way, during months that the S&P 500 stock index fell, dividend stocks declined by nearly 19% less than the broader market.

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DOWNSIDE AND UPSIDE CAPTURE RATIOS OF HIGH DIVIDEND STOCKS – 1927 TO 2011  
The lower the number, the better    
                                                                            Downside 
                                                                              Capture Ratio 
   
Since 192781.53 
50-year67.45 
30-year65.86 
20-year65.83 
10-year81.61 
   

Source: Kenneth French as of 12/31/11

EDUCATION: Books

SPEAKING: Dr. Marcinko will be speaking and lecturing, signing and opining, teaching and preaching, storming and performing at many locations throughout the USA this year! His tour of witty and serious pontifications may be scheduled on a planned or ad-hoc basis; for public or private meetings and gatherings; formally, informally, or over lunch or dinner. All medical societies, financial advisory firms or Broker-Dealers are encouraged to submit a RFP for speaking engagements: CONTACT: MarcinkoAdvisors@outlook.com 

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GROWTH STOCKS: Physicians Grabbing the Investing Momentum

Posted on February 27, 2025 by Dr. David Edward Marcinko MBA MEd CMP™

CATCHING THE GROWTH MOMENTUM

BY DR.DAVID EDWARD MARCINKO; MBA MED CMP™

SPONSOR: http://www.MarcinkoAssociates.com

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Investing in Growth Stocks – Catching the Momentum [BIG-MO]

The growth style of investing focuses on companies with strong earnings and accelerating capital growth. A growth investor will make investment decisions based on forecasts of continuing growth in earnings. Growth investing emphasizes qualitative criteria, including value judgments about the company, its markets, its management, and its ability to extract future earnings growth from the particular industry.

Quantitative indicators of interest to the growth investor include high Price/Earnings ratios, Price/Sales ratios, and low dividend yields. A high P/E ratio suggests that the market is prepared to pay more per share in anticipation of future earnings. A low dividend yield suggests that the company is reinvesting rather than distributing profits. These indicators are considered in relation to the company’s immediate competitors. The companies with the highest P/E ratios relative to their industry will often be dominant within their market segment and have strong growth prospects. Growth investors will generally focus on premium and leading-edge companies.

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Some industry sectors by their nature have stronger growth characteristics, particularly more innovative and speculative industries. 

For example, during the bull market run on the U.S. stock markets during the late 1990s, the technology sector was a major area of growth investment.   On observing strong earnings growth, a growth investor will decide whether to buy shares based on whether the company’s growth is going to continue at its present rate, to increase, or to decrease.  If it is expected to increase, the growth investor will consider it a candidate for purchase.  The key research question is: at what point will the company’s growth flatten out, or fall? If a company’s growth rate slows or reverses, it is no longer attractive to a growth investor. Growth investors are normally prepared to pay a premium for what they believe to be high quality shares. The potential downside in growth investing is that if a company goes into sudden decline and the share price falls, you can lose capital value rapidly.

Growth stocks, like the current “Magnificent-Seven“, carry high expectations of above-average future growth in earnings and above-average valuations.  Investors expect these stocks to perform well in the future and are willing to pay high P/E multiples for this expected growth.   The danger is that the price may become too high. Generally, once a company sports a P/E ratio above 50, the risk significantly escalates. Many technology growth stocks traded at a P/E ratio of above 100 during 1999. This is unsustainable.  No company in the history of the stock market has been able to maintain such a high P/E level for a sustained period of time. 

EDUCATION: Books

SPEAKING: Dr. Marcinko will be speaking and lecturing, signing and opining, teaching and preaching, storming and performing at many locations throughout the USA this year! His tour of witty and serious pontifications may be scheduled on a planned or ad-hoc basis; for public or private meetings and gatherings; formally, informally, or over lunch or dinner. All medical societies, financial advisory firms or Broker-Dealers are encouraged to submit a RFP for speaking engagements: MarcinkoAdvisors@outlook.com 

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MACRO-FORECASTING: The True Value

Posted on February 25, 2025 by Dr. David Edward Marcinko MBA MEd CMP™

By Vitaliy Katsenelson CFA

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The True Value of Macro Forecasting
While in Omaha for the Berkshire Hathaway annual meeting one year, I participated in an investment panel hosted by a local chapter of the Young Presidents’ Organization. I had the privilege of sharing the stage with such industry giants as Tom Russo, a partner of Gardner Russo & Gardner (famous for knowing more about consumer stocks than the management that runs them), and Tom Gayner, president and CIO of Markel Corp., a specialty insurance company that on many levels resembles the Berkshire of 30 years ago.

We were asked how much time a value investor should spend on macro forecasting. Usually macro forecasting is frowned upon in the value investing community, and Berkshire CEO Warren Buffett has everything to do with that. He is famous for saying (and I am paraphrasing), “My decision making would not change even if I knew what the Federal Reserve will do with interest rates next month.” There is sound logic behind this: Forecasting the economy is incredibly difficult in the short run. The economy is not unlike a black box with hundreds of gauges on it that in the near term give you conflicting readings about what’s inside it.

For this reason macro forecasting was disapproved of by value investors, and for 20 years this attitude paid off. The economic climate was favorable, the stock market was in overdrive, price-earnings ratios were expanding. Macro did not matter — until the housing bubble and financial crisis. Value investors who had had their heads in the sand got annihilated.

Things in life often swing, pendulum-like, from one extreme to another. Right after a crisis every investor is a macro expert. It’s kind of hilarious: Investors who just a few years earlier didn’t even know the names of most economic indicators are now spitting them out in conversations as though they had absorbed them with their mother’s milk. So what should investors do — become macro experts or economic ignoramuses?

Believe it or not, there is a logical and, more important, a practical answer to this question. As an investor you want to spend very little time on forecasting the weather (that is, what the Fed will do with interest rates next month or the rate of growth of the economy). Weather forecasting, first of all, is not always accurate, but it will certainly consume a lot of time and energy, and the forecasts have a very finite shelf life. Yesterday’s weather is irrelevant today. As long as you own companies that can survive rain without catching pneumonia — even a few weeks of rain — weather forecasting is a waste of time. This is what Buffett was implying by saying he didn’t want to be a macro forecaster.

However, instead of being a weatherman (or weatherwoman), as an investor you want to pay serious attention to “climate change” — significant shifts in the global economy that can impact your portfolio. This is exactly what Buffett did over the past few decades — he was warning about the weak dollar because of trade-deficit imbalances (he even put on a trade that bet against the dollar). He also warned about derivatives — “weapons of mass destruction” — and tried to cleanse them from the portfolio of General Re (an insurance company Berkshire acquired) as fast as he could.

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NEWEST THOUGHTS: Physician Personal Emergency Fund Size is Getting Complicated

Posted on February 23, 2025 by Dr. David Edward Marcinko MBA MEd CMP™

SPONSOR: http://www.MarcinkoAssociates.com

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By Dr. David Edward Marcinko MBA MEd

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It has been said that most ordinary people should have at least three to six months of living expenses (not including taxes) in a cash-equivalent reserve fund that is easily accessible (i.e., liquid).  The amount needed for a one-month reserve is equal to the amount of expenses for the month, rather than the amount of monthly income. This is because during no-income months there is no income tax.  

However, the situation might not be the same for physicians in today’s harsh economic climate. 

The New Realities

Now, some physician-focused financial advisors, financial planners and Certified Medical Planners™ suggest even more reserve fund savings; up to two years. That’s because many factors come into play when determining how much a particular doctor’s family should have.

For example: 

  • Does the family have one income or two? If the doctor is in a dual-income family with stable incomes and they live on a single income, the need for a liquid reserve is less.  
  • How stable is the doctor’s income source? If a sole provider with an unstable income who spends all of the income each month, the need for a liquid cash reserve is high. 
  • Does the doctor own the practice, work in a clinic, medical group, hospital or healthcare system? In other words – employee (less control) or employer (more control). 
  • What is the doctor’s medical specialty and how has managed care penetrated his locale, or affected her focus? What about a DO, DDS/DMD or DPM, etc.
  • How does the family use its income each month; does it have a saver, spender, or investor mentality?  
  • Does the family anticipate the possibility of large expenses occurring in the future (medical practice start-up costs or practice purchase; children, medical school student debts; auto or home loans; and/or liability suits, etc)?  
  • Pan physician lifestyle?

The Past 

In the ancient past, a doctor may have opted for a nine-twelve month reserve if the need for security was high – and a six-to-nine month reserve if the need for security was low. But today, even more may be needed.  How about 15-18 months, or more? Perhaps even 24 months!

So, the following questions may be helpful in determining the amount of reserve needed by the physician: 

1. How long would it take you to find another job in your medical specialty if you suddenly found yourself unemployed – same for your spouse?

2. Would you have to relocate – same for your spouse? 

3. How much do you spend each month on fixed or discretionary expenses and would you be willing to lower your monthly expenses if you were unemployed? 

Assessment

Once the amount of reserve is determined, the doctor should use the appropriate investment vehicles for the funds. 

At minimum, the reserve should be invested in a money market fund. For larger reserves, an ultra-short-term bond fund might be appropriate for amounts over three-six months. While even larger reserves might be kept in a short term bond fund depending on interest rates and trends. 

So, what do the initials M.D. really mean? … More Dough!

How much reserve do you have and where is it stashed?

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EDUCATION: Books

SPEAKING: Dr. Marcinko will be speaking and lecturing, signing and opining, teaching and preaching, storming and performing at many locations throughout the USA this year! His tour of witty and serious pontifications may be scheduled on a planned or ad-hoc basis; for public or private meetings and gatherings; formally, informally, or over lunch or dinner. All medical societies, financial advisory firms or Broker-Dealers are encouraged to submit a RFP for speaking engagements: MarcinkoAdvisors@outlook.com 

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Filed under: "Doctors Only", Accounting, Book Reviews, Experts Invited, Financial Planning, Funding Basics, Glossary Terms, LifeStyle, Marcinko Associates | Tagged: , , , , , , , , , , , , , | Leave a comment »

INVESTING Psychology

Posted on February 21, 2025 by Dr. David Edward Marcinko MBA MEd CMP™

By Dan Ariely PhD

THE IRRATIONAL ECONOMIST

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Of course you don’t need a human financial advisor … until you do. Today, we’ve had unfettered internet access to a wide range of investments, opinions and models for at least two decades. So, why the bravado to go it alone; fifteen positive years for equities, since 2009! Yet, the DJIA, S&P 500 and NASDAQ just plunged and plummeted today!

The financial advisor’s role is to remove the human element and emotion from investing decisions for something as personal as your wealth. Emotion drives the retail investor to sell low (fear) and buy high (greed). This is the reason why the average equity returns for retail investors is less than half of the S&P 500’s returns.

No, of course you don’t need a human financial advisor … until you do.

And when you do, it may be too late.

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Filed under: "Ask-an-Advisor", Ethics, Financial Planning, Health Economics, Investing, mental health | Tagged: , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , | Leave a comment »

INSURANCE: Variable Universal Life

Posted on February 18, 2025 by Dr. David Edward Marcinko MBA MEd CMP™

DEFINITION

By Staff Reporters

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Variable Universal Life Insurance: Permanent life insurance that allows the policyholder to vary the amount and timing of premiums and, by extension, the death benefit. Universal life insurance policies accumulate cash value which grows tax deferred. Within certain limits, policyholders can direct how this cash value will be allocated among sub-accounts offered within the policy.

Several factors will affect the cost and availability of life insurance, including age, health, and the type and amount of insurance purchased. Life insurance policies have expenses, including mortality and other charges. If a policy is surrendered prematurely, the policyholder also may pay surrender charges and have income tax implications. You should consider determining whether you are insurable before implementing a strategy involving life insurance.

Any guarantees associated with a policy are dependent on the ability of the issuing insurance company to continue making claim payments.

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INTERNATIONAL vs. GLOBAL: The Mutual Fund Difference

Posted on February 14, 2025 by Dr. David Edward Marcinko MBA MEd CMP™

SPONSOR: http://www.MarcinkoAssociates.com

By Staff Reporters

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With international stock markets comprising about 40 percent of the world’s capitalization as of 2023, a broad range of investment opportunities exist outside the borders of the U.S.

For investors who are looking to diversify their mutual fund portfolio with exposure to companies located outside the U.S., there exist two basic choices: A global mutual fund or an international mutual fund.

By definition, international funds invest in non-U.S. markets, while global funds may invest in U.S. stocks alongside non-U.S. stocks.

Make a Choice: The definition may seem clear, but what may seem less clear is why an investor might select one over the other. The reason that an investor may select a global fund is to provide the portfolio manager with the latitude to move the fund’s investments among non-U.S. markets and the U.S. market in order to take advantage of the shifts in relative opportunities these markets may present at any given moment.

By investing in a global fund, the challenge for the investor is that he or she may not know at any point in time their total exposure to the U.S. market within the context of their overall portfolio.

An Inside Look: As a consequence, some investors want to manage their allocation risk by setting the broad asset allocation for their portfolio and then identifying funds that are within those asset classes. For these investors, an international fund may make more sense since it allows them to maintain a greater adherence to their desired domestic/international stock allocation.

Keep in mind that asset allocation is an approach to help manage investment risk. Asset allocation does not guarantee against investment loss. As you consider a global or an international fund, you should also be aware of the fund’s approach to the inherent currency risks. Some funds choose to engage in strategies that may mitigate the effects of currency fluctuations, while others consider currency movements – up and down – to be an element of portfolio performance.

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