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* Profits are down, and they’re set to plummet even further. (Wired $) * A hedge fund that invested heavily in FTX is shutting down. (FT $) * Tim Berners-Lee thinks crypto is comparable to gambling. (CNBC)
Cathie Wood just revealed that her flagship fund ARK Invest lost over $2 billion last year. Her struggles sum up how rising interest rates are affecting markets, according to the CEO of JPMorgan Asset Management. “When the Federal Reserve hits the brakes, something goes through the windshield,” George Gatch said.
Cathie Wood’s Ark Invest also sold $13.5 million worth of Coinbase stock. The famed money manager now holds a 7% stake in the crypto exchange worth $837 million. Shares of Coinbase are up nearly 30% in the past five trading sessions as crypto prices rallied.
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Moderna – which received about $10 billion in taxpayer money to produce its COVID-19 vaccine and has since earned billions more in profits selling it – was sued in early 2022 by Genevant Sciences and Arbutus Biopharma Corp., which accused Moderna of using technology they have patented in its vaccine. The two companies have asked a federal court in Delaware to award them damages for the infringement.
Alex Coffey, senior trading strategist at TD Ameritrade, said recent turmoil in the banking industry has effectively tightened credit conditions, possibly making further rate increases by the Fed unnecessary. Still, the Fed had to send a message that it’s not making an abrupt shift in its efforts to bring inflation down. The Fed has been in “cruise control” raising rates, “staying in the fast lane,” Alex says. “Now, it has turned off cruise and maybe changed lanes, but isn’t doing a quick move toward the off ramp. Today’s increase was not a ‘dovish’ hike, but also not the hawkish stance that was feared.”
“We’re near the end of the tightening cycle,” he adds. “But they have to do this slowly.”
The Fed commentary appeared to briefly soothe the market, causing the S&P 500® Index to rise as much as 1% soon after the central bank’s announcement, but the benchmark changed direction in the last hour of trading. The reversal may have in part been in response to the ambiguity of Powell’s words, as well as continuing concern about a potential recession.
And so, the following is a round-up of today’s domestic market activity:
The S&P 500 Index was down 65.90 (1.7%) at 3936.97; the Dow Jones industrial average was down 530.49 (1.6%%) at 32,030.11; the NASDAQ Composite was down 190.15 (1.6%) at 11,669.96.
The 10-year Treasury yield was down about 17 basis points at 3.44%.
Crypto currency was touted as antidote to central banking.
But with its own flaws, is the system itself to blame for this crypto market crash?
***
Cryptocurrencies were supposed to offer a new, virtual alternative to the current, mundane, “corrupt” system, in which a few dozen bureaucrats in conference rooms around the world – central bankers – manipulate the most important commodity of all – interest rates – the price of money.
The collapse of FTX (a cryptocurrency exchange that was valued at $30 billion just a few months ago) and the subsequent bankruptcies revealed what may have started as a kernel of sincere libertarian ideas to stand up to endless money printing and debt creation in our financial system, has been hijacked by what appears to be an immutable flaw of the human condition: our greed and desire to get rich fast.
Bitcoin prices climbed to as high as $27,293 last week, wrapping up the cryptocurrency’s best week since January 2021. And it has Silicon Valley Bank and friends to thank for it. Crypto diehards claim bitcoin’s gains are the result of people losing faith in traditional banking after SVB and Signature imploded (though it’s worth noting that Signature was a big player in the crypto world).
However, after the second-and third-biggest bank failures in history, economists started second-guessing whether the Fed would stick to the plan to hike interest rates again or change course to protect the rest of the very fragile banking industry. That could mean the crypto market, which slid into the dreaded Crypto Winter in the first half of last year because of macroeconomic factors like the Fed’s rate hikes, might finally be approaching spring.
So, according to MorningBrew, the Fed’s interest rate decision next week will likely serve as crypto’s redeux. And despite the banking industry hoping Jerome Powell pauses the interest rate hikes, February’s inflation numbers showed that the Fed may need to stick to its original plan to keep inflation in check.
In traditional finance transaction data is guarded by exchanges, brokers, banks and regulators. It’s not accessible to everyone and big players pay a fortune for it.
But, in crypto, Transaction Data is public and on-chain – but it’s not usable by everyone. So, manually making sense of raw blockchain data is practically impossible. The data needs to be processed and analyzed to be made useful. That’s what sophisticated blockchain analytics tools are doing.
The combination of on-chain data and transaction analysis is something that hasn’t been before – in crypto or traditional finance. Getting access to transaction data and tools for searching and analyzing it will unlock a goldmine of potential insight.
People who have been on the inside of projects and see how the sausage is made know that the explanations for price movements are often simple and based on key players buying and selling. When the biggest holders are dumping the price is likely to go down. When a major new buyer takes a position prices are likely to go up.
That’s insight traditional Technical Analysis cannot provide, because it’s limited to looking at price movements. Transaction data, instead, is the underlying activity that generates prices in crypto.
Financial regulators have closed Silicon Valley Bank and taken control of its deposits, the Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. announced yesterday, in what is the largest U.S. bank failure since the global financial crisis more than a decade ago.
The FDIC said in the announcement that insured depositors will have access to their deposits no later than Monday morning.
SVB’s branch offices will also reopen at that time, under the control of the regulator.
The FDIC’s standard insurance covers up to $250,000 per depositor, per bank, for each account ownership category.
And, the crypto company SB announced yesterday that it’s winding down operations and liquidating Silvergate Bank, which has about $11 billion in assets. Silvergate has been struggle throughout crypto’s downturn—especially after the collapse of FTX, one of its biggest customers. Last quarter, Silvergate fired 40% of its workforce, reported a $1 billion loss, and took out billions in loans…but apparently it wasn’t enough.
U.S. equities ended the day and week sharply lower, as the markets continued to look for hints regarding future monetary policy decisions. The moves came amid a flurry of news and economic data, as the February labor report showed stronger-than-expected job gains, and a lower-than-anticipated increase in wages, but a rise in the unemployment rate. The report was in stark contrast to January’s blowout figures, and seemed to soothe some of the anxiety over the Fed’s future actions.
In earnings news, Ulta Beauty handily beat estimates and provided upbeat guidance, and Oracle offered mixed quarterly results and increased its dividend, but Gap fell well short of expectations amid a tumble in online sales, and it saw a shakeup in management.
Treasury yields tumbled in the wake of the labor report and worries surrounding the banking sector, and the U.S. dollar was sharply lower, while crude oil and gold prices traded to the upside.
Asian stocks finished lower, and markets in Europe saw widespread losses, led by shares of banking companies, amid uncertainty regarding the overall effects of rate hikes.
U.S. Markets will be closed for Presidents’ Day. The U.S. Markets will be closed on Monday, February 20, 2023. Please be aware that, when making brokerage transactions after 4 p.m. EST on Friday, February 17, 2023, you will receive the closing price as of Tuesday, February 21, 2023.
But crypto trading takes no days off, and despite the fallout from FTX’s collapse and a flurry of crackdowns by regulators, bitcoin has been on a nice run lately. Last Thursday, it topped $25,000 to hit an eight-month high.
PS: Did you know that Presidents Day (today) doesn’t actually fall on any president’s birthday? While originally celebrated on February 22, the day George Washington was born, the holiday was moved to the third Monday of February in 1971. That’s because Congress passed the Uniform Monday Holiday Act, which moved some federal holidays to Monday so we could all enjoy more three-day weekends.
In a first-of-its-kind settlement with the SEC, the crypto exchange Kraken will stop offering crypto staking services in the US. The regulatory crackdown sent a chill across the crypto industry, since staking (crypto’s version of a high-yield savings account, as CoinDesk explains it) is a growing source of revenue for crypto platforms. Shares of Coinbase, the largest crypto exchange in the US, dropped the most since July on the news.
***
The IRS is asking millions of taxpayers in 22 states including California and Colorado who received tax rebates last year to hold off on filing their taxes. Why? The agency said it is seeking to clarify whether those tax rebates and special refunds are considered taxable income. “We expect to provide additional clarity for as many states and taxpayers as possible next week,” the IRS said on February 3.
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Inflation going back up? The big economic data release of the week is Tuesday’s consumer price index report. It probably won’t be cause for celebration, because inflation is expected to have ticked back up in January. If so, it’ll fan more fears that the economy is heating up when the Fed wants it to keep cooling down.
The bankruptcy of Barry Silbert’s Genesis Global may not have pummeled crypto markets like the implosion of Sam Bankman-Fried’s FTX did, but it features a list of top creditors with similarly large claims topping $3 billion in total.
According to Bloomberg, Genesis’s Chapter 11 filing on Thursday listed seven creditors owed at least $100 million. By far the biggest one is a $766 million claim related to customers of crypto exchange Gemini, who have money stuck with Genesis’s lending unit. FTX-linked entities have 10 claims of more than $100 million, according to a redacted list filed Saturday.
In all, Genesis owes its top 50 creditors $3.4 billion; for FTX, that figure stands at $3.1 billion. While some of the names of Genesis’ biggest creditors have been redacted in the filing, below is a list of major names.
The US stock and bond markets are closed today for MLK Day, so we’ll have to wait 24 more hours to see if this year-opening rally will continue for a third week.
But crypto currency trades 24/7, and the same hopeful inflation news that’s been lifting stocks has also given life to beaten-down cryptocurrencies. Bitcoin gained for the 11th straight day on Saturday, topping $20,000 for the first time in more than two months.
So, here are some ways in which the non-stop crypto market affects institutions — banks and exchanges, in particular.
The stock market takes a break every day, and every weekend. That gives all the players in the market — individual investors and institutions — a chance to assess and reposition their assets for their next moves. But since crypto trades all the time, there are stretches during the 24-hour day when banks and exchanges are effectively closed, and money isn’t being moved around as quickly or efficiently as it would during business hours.
This can cause lags — if a crypto trader is trying to deposit money into their crypto exchange account to execute a trade at, say, 2 am ET on a Sunday night, that money won’t actually move until the next day. That has the potential to cause some friction in the markets.
In short, there’s a mismatch between the standard business hours of many institutions and the 24-hour nature of the crypto markets, which may have an effect on the markets.
Silvergate Capital Corporation reported a sharp drop in fourth-quarter crypto-related deposits on Thursday as investors spooked by the collapse of FTX pulled out more than $8 billion in deposits, sending shares down more than 42%. The crypto-focused bank also said it would cut its workforce by 40%, or about 200 employees, as it tries to rein in costs amid a deepening industry downturn. Its stock was last trading at $12.55.
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U.S. stocks were lower as the markets continued to speculate as to how long the Fed will keep its monetary policy tight. Yesterday’s minutes from the Fed’s December meeting suggested that the Central Bank will remain aggressive. Jobs data pointed to a tight labor market, as the ADP Employment Change Report came in higher than expected, and jobless claims were lower than anticipated, which seemed to be solidifying expectations of further rate hikes. Services sector data also came out, with output being revised higher but continuing to depict contraction.
Treasury yields were mixed, and the U.S. dollar rallied following the data, while crude oil prices rose, and gold dropped.
Equity news offered varying results, as Exxon Mobil offered mixed Q4 guidance, T-Mobile US’ phone customers topped forecasts, Constellation Brands missed earnings estimates and lowered guidance, and Conagra Brands topped quarterly estimates.
Finally, Asian stocks finished mostly higher, and European stocks were mixed following a three-day winning streak, as the markets digested the Fed’s minutes and amid optimism regarding China’s reopening.
“Central bank money” refers to money that is a liability of the central bank. In the United States, there are currently two types of central bank money: physical currency issued by the Federal Reserve and digital balances held by commercial banks at the Federal Reserve.
While Americans have long held money predominantly in digital form—for example in bank accounts, payment apps or through online transactions—a CBDC would differ from existing digital money available to the general public because a CBDC would be a liability of the Federal Reserve, not of a commercial bank.
The Winter Solstice, or the December Solstice, is the point at which the path of the sun in the sky is farthest south. At the Winter Solstice, the sun travels the shortest path through the sky resulting in the day of the year with the least sunlight and therefore, the longest night.
Telehealth extension: Tucked in the new Congress’ spending bill is an extension of HHS rules that made telehealth more accessible during the pandemic. But the provision, which extends the flexibility through the end of 2024, falls far short of a push from some lawmakers who wanted to make that flexibility permanent.
Traditional guidance says not to spend more than 4% of your retirement savings in the first year to protect yourself from running out of money in your golden years. A new recommendation puts that figure at 3.8% with a 30-year time horizon, according to researchers at Morningstar Inc., a half-point higher than the 3.3% withdrawal they recommended in 2022 due to expectations for lower future investment returns. That means if you retire this year with a $640,000 portfolio invested 50% in stocks and 50% in bonds, you should take out no more than $24,320 in 2023.
U.S. equities finished higher in choppy action, posting the first gains in four sessions, as investors digested a host of monetary policy decisions from central banks in Asia. The Bank of Japan and People’s Bank of China kept their respective benchmark interest rates unchanged, but the former surprisingly tweaked its yield curve control policy.
Equity news was on the light side today, as General Mills beat earnings estimates and raised its full-year guidance, and shares of Steel Dynamics gained ground after it was announced that it would replace ABIOMED in the S&P 500.
On the economic front, housing starts declined less than anticipated, while building permits fell much more than expectations. Treasury yields rose, particularly on the long end of the curve, while the U.S. dollar fell, crude oil prices saw a modest increase, and gold prices rallied.
Asian stocks finished broadly lower and market in Europe diverged amid the host of monetary policy decisions.
John J. Ray III (born January 1959) is an American attorney and insolvency professional. He specializes in recovering funds from failed corporations. He was appointed CEO of cryptocurrency exchangeFTX in the aftermath of its November 2022 collapse.
He previously served as chairman of Enron Creditors Recovery Corp., a company tasked with recovering creditor funds from Enron in the wake of its accounting scandal and subsequent collapse. He also worked on the bankruptcies of Nortel, Residential Capital, and Overseas Shipholding.
U.S. equities were able to finish higher after coming off early solid gains in the wake of the Consumer Price Index (CPI). The November CPI report came in softer-than-expected and seemed to somewhat sooth concerns regarding how aggressive the Fed will remain in its rate hike campaign. This came ahead of tomorrow’s highly anticipated Fed monetary policy decision, with the markets expecting a 50-basis point increase to the target fed funds rate.
Treasury yields tumbled following the inflation data, and the U.S. dollar fell, while crude oil and gold prices were sharply higher. In other economic news, the NFIB Small Business Optimism Index unexpectedly rose.
Equity news was light, as Oracle beat earnings estimates despite the significant impact of the strengthening U.S. dollar, while Raytheon Technologies authorized a $6 billion share repurchase program. European stocks finished higher, getting a boost from the CPI report, while markets in Asia were mixed
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The world’s biggest central banks will this week wrap up the most aggressive year for interest-rate hikes in four decades with their fight against inflation still not over even as their economies slow. The US Federal Reserve on is set to raise its key rate by 50 basis points to a range of 4% to 4.5%, the highest since 2007, and to signal more increases in early 2023.
A day later, the European Central Bank and the Bank of England are likely to follow with half-point moves. And higher borrowing costs are also in the cards in Switzerland, Norway, Mexico, Taiwan, Colombia and the Philippines.
***
Earlier in October, Kiyosaki mentioned that he is bullish on Bitcoin because state-sponsored pension funds are starting to invest in BTC. Kiyosaki has repeatedly cautioned that the U.S. is heading toward an economic collapse. He said in a tweet that amid a financial meltdown, investors could keep their capital intact by loading up on gold, silver, and Bitcoin. At the time of writing, Bitcoin was trading at $17,156, up about 1% in the last seven days. The apex crypto’s market cap stood at around $330 billion.
The wash-sale rule prohibits selling an investment for a loss and replacing it with the same or a “substantially identical” investment 30 days before or after the sale. If you do have a wash sale, the IRS will not allow you to write off the investment loss which could make your taxes for the year higher than you hoped.
Even if you sell at a loss from a brokerage account or IRA, it still might not want to permanently exit a portfolio position. It may want to get back into an investment now at a cheaper cost with room to re-grow.
BUT – Just wait a moment, according to the IRS “wash-sale” rule.
The IRS will not count a capital loss if, within 30 days before the sale or within 30 days afterwards, the taxpayer is also buying or acquiring a “substantially identical” investment. The rule applies to investments like stocks, bonds, mutual funds, exchange traded funds and options – but not cryptocurrency.
The basic trick is just keeping track of the days. Another skill is considering what counts as “substantially identical” for the fast-moving investor who sees a buying opportunity either 30 days before or after the day of sale.
An investor could sell a stock and buy an exchange traded fund or mutual fund that contains the stock and not run afoul of the rule, Going the other way, from a mutual fund or ETF containing a stock to a direct stock purchase, also will not trigger the rule, he noted.
EXAMPLE: Suppose an investor has several investment accounts — perhaps one is a long-term account and the other is more for short-term trades. The rule applies across the account. So if one sells and the other buys within 30 days before or after, the wash-sale rule will scrap the capital loss.
Buying and selling shares of two different funds tracking the same index within the 30-day period could also cause the wash sale rule to kick in. However, a move like selling a piece of an ETF tracking the S&P 500, and then soon buying an ETF tracking the Russell 1000 Index would be OK according to a tutorial from Charles Schwab SCHW, +3.70%. “That would preserve your tax break and keep you in the market with about the same asset allocation,” an explainer said.
But while someone’s eyeing a repurchase and letting the wash-sale window close one place, they may have a chance to start the tax strategy process in a different part of their portfolio. “There’s really tax loss harvesting opportunities across a number of different asset classes this year.”
Over the past five years I have written several columns and given a number of media interviews on the risks of speculating in cryptocurrencies. My most recent one generated a conversation with several of my financial planning peers about the recent crypto meltdown. One of them called my attention to the discussions about suicide on cryptocurrency forums, where some members were posting suicide prevention phone numbers.
You have to report your crypto and NFT transactions to the IRS
While not technically new, for 2022 the IRS is making a more concerted effort to track cryptocurrency sales and trades. Whenever you sell or trade your crypto or purchase an item with crypto, you trigger a taxable event. Currently, crypto is taxed like property, making it subject to short- or long-term capital gains taxes. This also means you can report any crypto losses to help offset any gains. Since 2022 saw a drastic drop in the value of cryptocurrencies like bitcoin and ethereum, if you sold or traded your crypto at a loss, you may be able to reduce your tax bill by reporting your capital loss. The same goes for NFTs.
And though the IRS will flag any unreported crypto gains, if you don’t report a loss that can lower your tax burden, the IRS won’t adjust your return on your behalf. “If you leave it off, it stays off,” said Steber. “Tax deductible losses from your virtual currency activity do have real consequences on your tax return, and can save you real dollars. So I always tell people, if you’ve got something that you don’t fully understand, you certainly should seek out guidance from a trained experienced tax professional.”
Tiantian Kullander, the influential young founder of cryptocurrency company Amber Group, died suddenly in his sleep on Nov. 23, the company confirmed.
The group had just received a $3 billion valuation earlier this year, and was in the process of raising another $100 million—a meteoric success in which he played an integral role after launching Amber in 2017 with a group of finance insiders, including former Goldman Sachs Group Inc and Morgan Stanley workers.
Following his crypto exchange’s epic implosion, FTX boss Sam Bankman-Fried (SBF) said he was sorry for mistakes he made, and pledged to “give anything I have to” in order to raise the $4 billion in capital FTX needs to avoid bankruptcy.
As the SEC bear down on the company, shady activities are coming to light: FTX loaned its affiliated firm, Alameda Research, ~$10 billion worth of customer assets to fund high-risk bets, per the WSJ.
Celebrity Matt Damon’s infamous “fortune favors the brave” Crypto.com commercial premiered one year ago today, and its timing couldn’t have been worse. Had you been inspired to buy $1,000 worth of bitcoin on that day (the token was then worth $60,608, near its peak price) you would have just ~$340 now.
Fortune isn’t exactly what’s favored Crypto.com in the year since the ad debuted. The price of bitcoin has plunged ~70%, the company reportedly slashed about 40% of its workforce this summer, and the YouTube version of the Damon commercial has been set to private.
Today, the coin has been pretty stable since mid-June, 2022 and hovering at around $20,000.
DEFINITION: Stablecoins are cryptocurrencies where the price is designed to be pegged to a reference asset. The reference asset may be fiat money, exchange-traded commodities, or a cryptocurrency.
In fact, Stablecoins could have such a profound effect on the established banking system that U.S. regulators need to require that the digital tokens fit in without disrupting it, said Martin Gruenberg, the acting chairman of the Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. (FDIC). His remarks were delivered at a Brookings Institution event recently.
Gruenberg’s agency is among the U.S. banking watchdogs that will have significant influence over how stablecoins are regulated, and the FDIC has also had to weigh in with recent sanctions against firms – such as FTX US – that have made claims misrepresenting how FDIC deposit insurance backstops their operations. As U.S. banks have increasingly sought to offer crypto services, including maintaining custody of customer’s digital assets, Gruenberg said that his agency has been cautious about allowing regulated lenders to engage.
In traditional finance transaction data is guarded by exchanges, brokers, banks and regulators. It’s not accessible to everyone and big players pay a fortune for it.
But, in crypto, Transaction Data is public and on-chain – but it’s not usable by everyone. So, manually making sense of raw blockchain data is practically impossible. The data needs to be processed and analyzed to be made useful. That’s what sophisticated blockchain analytics tools are doing.
The combination of on-chain data and transaction analysis is something that hasn’t been before – in crypto or traditional finance. Getting access to transaction data and tools for searching and analyzing it will unlock a goldmine of potential insight.
People who have been on the inside of projects and see how the sausage is made know that the explanations for price movements are often simple and based on key players buying and selling. When the biggest holders are dumping the price is likely to go down. When a major new buyer takes a position prices are likely to go up.
That’s insight traditional Technical Analysis cannot provide, because it’s limited to looking at price movements. Transaction data, instead, is the underlying activity that generates prices in crypto.
I was interviewed on PBS Newshour about the insanity that is happening in the NFT (non-fungible token) market. You can watch it here. If you read my “I Kid You Not Crazy” article, then you know everything I have to say about NFTs and cryptocurrency. I can sum up my thoughts on NFTs in one sentence: NFTs, just like cryptocurrencies, are a technology of the future, but a speculative bubble induced by excess global liquidity in the present.
Bitcoin just dropped 1.54% to $19,804, slipping from the 20,000 mark after losing $310 from its previous close. The world’s biggest and best-known cryptocurrency is down 58.9% from the year’s high of $48,234 on March 28th.
Ether, the coin linked to the Ethereum blockchain network, dropped 3.2 % to $1,422.1 losing $47 from its previous close.
The inflation-proof nature of cryptocurrency works in the same way as stocks– inflation will cause prices to increase so companies can charge more for their goods which means people are willing to pay.
However, since cryptocurrencies are fairly new and not backed by anything at this point it’s better if they make up a small portion of your portfolio instead of trying to go all in with one coin unless you have enough money lying around where losing some won’t hurt too much.
A lot of corporate investment portfolios have started to include crypto because let’s face it, inflation matters.
Stay alert for investment scams involving cryptocurrency
At Schwab, we’re committed to helping you protect your assets. One way we do that is by raising awareness of the increase in fraudulent investment schemes (“scams”) involving cryptocurrencies and digital assets. While investing involves taking some risks, being scammed shouldn’t be one of them.
What do scams look like? Investment scams target investors by promising quick, guaranteed returns. Although “investment pitches” vary, using fraudulent cryptocurrency investment opportunities to entice targets is a common approach.
Once targeted investors indicate interest, they are often instructed to wire funds abroad or to a third party’s personal account, or to transfer cryptocurrency. Fake websites and/or applications often create the illusion of a legitimate trading or investment platform and gain trust. However, once funds have been transferred, they are difficult to trace and retrieve.
5 Investment Scam Red Flags
• Guaranteed” high investment returns, supposedly with little or no risk, and sounding too good to be true. • Unlicensed or unregistered sellers. Use Investor.gov to check out the background of anyone offering you an investment in securities. • Skyrocketing account values. Investments that appear to rapidly increase in value are often fake. • Fake testimonials. Scammers often pay people to provide fake reviews, so never rely solely on testimonials in making an investment decision. • Fake contacts. Take caution if someone approaches you through social media with an investment opportunity. Pretending to be a friend or to have a mutual acquaintance is a common tactic used to gain trust.
Mark Cuban, the billionaire entrepreneur, has been facing a torrent of criticism for several days linked to a partnership forged with a crypto firm. Indeed, Cuban, an evangelist of the crypto industry in which he has invested, signed an agreement linking his NBA team, the Dallas Mavericks, to the crypto lender Voyager Digital last October. The contract, signed on October 28, is for five years and has a mission to promote cryptocurrencies by making coins more accessible through educational and digital programs.
Beleaguered crypto lender Celsius Network operated as a classic “Ponzi scheme,” the former head of the company’s key investment strategy alleged in a lawsuit, claiming the company used customer deposits to cover huge liabilities caused by reckless mismanagement.
The closely watched criminal trial of three former JPMorgan Chase & Co employees just commenced, with a prosecutor saying they “ripped off” the precious metals futures market with fake orders and defense attorneys saying the orders were genuine. The bank’s former global precious metals desk head Michael Nowak, precious metals trader Gregg Smith and salesperson Jeffrey Ruffo are charged with racketeering and conspiracy in the U.S. Justice Department’s most aggressive case to date targeting the manipulative trading tactic known as spoofing.
Finally, job payrolls grew by 372,000 in June, according to the Labor Department, easing fears over a potential recession while clearing the way for another round of interest rate hikes by the Federal Reserve later this month and beyond.
As reported by CoinDesk, Meta [Facebook] is ending its three-year experiment with crypto this month. The company will shut down its crypto wallet, Novi, in September, but will prevent customers from adding any more funds to it later in July.
July 4th is the 10th anniversary of the discovery of the Higgs boson, also known as God’s particle. After a search of more than 40 years, the particle was discovered in experiments on the Large Hadron Collider (LHC) at European Organization for Nuclear Research (CERN) near Geneva, Switzerland on July 4, 2012. Considered one of the most important scientific discoveries of the modern era, the Higgs boson provides evidence for the Standard Model of Physics, which describes how various particles make the universe.
Bitcoin’s energy hunger, which has alarmed environmentalists and consumer advocates concerned about pollution and utility prices, comes from the process of mining new tokens. Bitcoin miners earn new tokens by validating transactions through an inherently energy-inefficient process, using specialized machines to solve complex puzzles. All that computing by all those machines has led to an energy appetite rivaling that of entire nations. Bitcoin’s annualized energy consumption has fallen from about 204 terawatt-hours (TWh) per year on June 11th to around 132 TWh per year on June 23rd. But even though its electricity use has plunged, it’s still very high — roughly equivalent to the amount of electricity Argentina uses in a single year.
Editor’s Note: Incidentally, colleague Mike Burry MD, the Scion Asset Management boss has also compared the crypto boom to the dot-com and housing bubbles, and cautioned that retail buyers of meme stocks and crypto are barreling towards the “mother of all crashes.” – DE Marcinko
Markets: Finally, and according to preliminary data, the S&P 500 gained 116.98 points, or 3.08%, to end at 3,912.71 points, while the NASDAQ Composite gained 380.21 points, or 3.38%, to 11,612.40. The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 839.93 points, or 2.70%, to 31,505.59.
The rate of inflation rose again in May, remaining at 40-year highs, the Office for National Statistics revealed. The rate of Consumer Prices Index [CPI] inflation rose slightly to 9.1 per cent in May from 9 per cent in April, according to the ONS. The increase matches what analysts had expected. And, supply constraints, exacerbated by Russia’s war in Ukraine account for about half of the surge in US inflation, with demand currently making up a third of the increase, according to new research from the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
US gasoline futures are about 13% below the record high seen earlier this month and pump prices have dropped for more than seven days straight — the biggest run of losses since April — after rising to a fresh peak early last week, as recession concerns grip the market. Oil prices have tumbled toward $100 a barrel as traders fear that sharply higher interest rates would slow down economic growth and lead to demand destruction. The AAA reports that the average price of a gallon of regular gas slipped 6 cents since last week, to $4.955.
U.S. online trading firms specializing in crypto were hit hard after BinanceUS, an arm of the word’s biggest digital currency exchange, eliminated its bitcion spot trading fees. BinanceUS will now allow its users to trade bitcoin, the biggest cryptocurrency, against assets such as the U.S. dollar, tether, and other dollar-backed stablecoins for free, eliminating its prior levy of 0.1% on transaction valued at less than $50,000.00.
Altria’s big tumble—the tobacco company owns a 35% stake in Juul, and a WSJ report suggested the FDA could order Juul to yank its products off the market imminently.
Cathie Wood warned that the Federal Reserve could cause a recession if it keeps hiking interest rates. The US central bank is ignoring three indicators that might show inflation easing, according to the Ark Invest CIO. First, aggressive hikes are unnecessary because inflation is already easing. Second, she pointed to the stagnating prices of gold and lumber, which are often seen as leading inflation indicators. “After soaring from $1,350/ounce pre-COVID to a peak of nearly $2,000 [an ounce] during 2020, the gold price has dropped back to $1,840 [an ounce] during the past two years. “The lumber price has dropped more than 50%.” Finally, Wood said fuel prices have likely peaked as Americans increasingly turn to electric vehicles. Surging oil prices have been one of the main drivers of inflation this year, with Brent crude up 48.3% to over $115 a barrel.
The IRS says it is climbing out from under the unprecedented stack of tax returns that piled up after the agency had to scale back its operations and close facilities in 2020 following the onset of the pandemic. The agency announced that by the end of this week it will have cleared all original individual tax returns that were filed in 2021 and that didn’t contain any major mistakes. “Due to issues related to the pandemic and staffing limitations, the IRS began 2022 with a larger than usual inventory of paper tax returns and correspondence filed during 2021,” the IRS said in a statement. “The IRS took a number of steps to address this, and the agency is on track to complete processing of originally filed Form 1040 (individual tax returns without errors) received in 2021 this week.”
Another record for US single-family rents, which jumped 14% year-over-year in April, marking the 13th period of record-breaking annual gains.
Markets: Stocks bounced yesterday after their worst week in two years, led by energy stocks and Big Tech companies. Cypto even rose. Today, investors will be glued to Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s testimony on Capitol Hill. They want to know whether Powell expects to hike interest rates by another 75 basis points next month.
Blake Lemoine, an engineer for Google’sresponsible AI organization, described an AI system that he has been working on since last fall as sentient, with a perception of, and ability to express thoughts and feelings that was equivalent to a human child. He was promptly suspended.
Earnings Are Under Threat. Companies from Target to Microsoft have warned their results will be lower than expected, while analysts have trimmed earnings forecasts across industries. Investors will get further clarity next month when companies begin reporting results for the second quarter.
The S&P is in a historic slump having fallen in nine out of the past 10 weeks for just the third time since 1980. And cryptocurrencies, which trade 24/7, tumbled following another red-hot inflation report.
Global venture capital investment was a healthy $39 billion in May, according to Crunchbase. But, the figure declined for the second month in a row, reaching the lowest point since December 2020. In monthly terms, VC investments declined by nearly 16%. In yearly terms, it fell by 20%.
Nobel laureate and economist Robert Shiller said the US has a good chance of entering a recession. He told Bloomberg the odds of a recession in the next few years are 50%, which is “much higher than normal.” Shiller predicted in 2005 that the housing bubble would burst and also warned a new one may be forming. And, Ray Dalio said the FMOC will cut interest rates to combat stagflation in a recent Market Insider interview. “We are in a tighttening mode … the pain of that will become great.”
Additionally, former EY Global Chairman and CEO Mark Weinberger warned that inflation will not go down in the near future, causing the economy to “turn for the worse.”
Gemini, a crypto exchange and custodian founded by Cameron and Tyler Winklevoss faced a loss in February in the form of a $36 million breach. And now the company is being sued over its alleged failure to protect its customers.
The Stock Markets have been a bit dull recently. The S&P 500 has been directionless trading within a roughly 100-point range for the past two weeks. The only energy in the market seems to belong to Exxon Mobil which notched a record close; first since 2014.
US roaring consumer demand has caused an increase in the price of goods and services, otherwise known as inflation. But with inflation at a 40-year high this year, Americans are finding their monthly income isn’t going as far as it used to. In April, the personal savings rate in the US ticked down to a 14-year low of 4.4%, according to the latest figures from the Commerce Department. That’s half the rate it was in December, and roughly a third of where it was the year before. And, many households are already in negative savings territory, meaning they are increasingly tapping into their savings to cover purchases each month.
And Oil prices moved higher as a production increase by OPEC+ countries was viewed as potentially too little to offset the absence of Russian supply, while US crude inventories declined sharply. West Texas Intermediate moved 1.249% higher to $116.70, while Brent crude, the international benchmark, jumped about 1% to $117.47
Finally, The Social Network twins are laying off 10% of the workforce at Gemini, the crypto exchange they own. Tyler and Cameron Winklevoss said that the industry has entered a “contraction phase that is settling into a period of stasis”—which is another way of saying that the total value of digital assets has plunged by about $2 trillion from its peak last November.
Since the year began, the iconic Dow Jones Industrial Average entered correction territory with a decline of greater than 10%, while the S&P 500 (very briefly, on an intra-day basis) and NASDAQ Composite both pushed into a bear market. The latter has endured a peak-to-trough drop of as much as 31% in six months.
Terra launched a new version of its failed luna cryptocurrency, which plunged to $0. At its height, the old luna — “luna classic” — had a circulating supply of over $40 billion. The revived luna token is already trading on exchanges but its price is crashing.
Oil prices rose to a two-month high over the holiday weekend, while the average cost of a gallon of gas in the US hit a record of $4.62.
Americans say it takes exactly $2.2 million in net worth to be considered “wealthy,” according to a new Charles Schwab study. The figure is up slightly from 2021, when it sat at $1.9 million, but down from a pre-pandemic “wealthy” high of $2.6 million in 2019. The average net worth it takes to be “financially comfortable” sat at $774,000 in 2022 and is up from $624,000 in 2021, but down from a pre-pandemic high of $1.4 million in 2018.
Vitalik Buterin tweeted Friday that he’s no longer a billionaire. Crypto has crashed in recent weeks amid a broad sell-off in traditional markets. Ethereum cofounder Vitalik Buterin tweeted Friday that he’s no longer a billionaire. Buterin, who cofounded the blockchain network in 2014, has seen its Ether token crash by 59% since hitting a high of around $4,800 in November 2021, when his holding was valued at around $1.5 billion.
Historically, the S&P 500 has fallen an average of 29% around recession (median of 24%). With the S&P 500 currently showing a peak-to-trough decline of almost 19%, the market is effectively already pricing in a 60%-75% chance of recession based on the average and median.
Thanks to a surging US dollar and a faltering Euro, many analysts expect that the two currencies could reach parity this year—meaning one dollar would fetch you one euro. The two currencies haven’t reached a 1:1 exchange rate since 2002, three years after the euro was introduced in an effort to bring stability to Europe. The euro closed at $1.057 against the dollar, just 5% above equal value with the US currency.
Finally, the current market plunge hasn’t yet scared investors like downturns in years past. Bank of America’s private clients are still dedicating 63% of their portfolios to stocks, compared to 39% after the 2008 financial crisis.
Here were a few floating around the internet this week, according to Neal Freyman:
When Matt Damon said, “Fortune favors the brave” in a Crypto.com commercial in October 2021. (It actually was kinda the top, because bitcoin peaked at $69,000 a few weeks later.)
When one investor went on CNBC last year to promote his investment in a lending platform called Upstart, he was asked what Upstart does. He hesitated, told the anchor his audio had cut out, and never responded.
When Dogecoin surged more than 10,000% to become the fourth most valuable cryptocurrency ahead of Elon Musk hosting SNL.
When electric vehicle startup Rivian was worth more than $110 billion and didn’t bring in any revenue.
When NFT platform OpenSea raised money at a $13.3 billion valuation—more than the value of American Airlines.
The IRS destroyed data for an estimated 30 million filers in March 2021, according to the Treasury Inspector General for Tax Administration. The decision, prompted by a backlog of paper filings, has sparked anger in the tax community. “It just further damages the IRS’ reputation in the business community and in the public,” said Larry Harris, director of tax services at Parsec Financial.
More than $200 billion has been wiped off the cryptocurrency market today alone, as investors are sent into a panic. Ethereum, the world’s second largest digital currency plummeted by 20% in the space of 24 hours. Bitcoin, the original cryptocurrency started in 2009, dropped by 9%, but overall it is down 50% since its all time high in November. Chaos on the market has seen other currencies such as Shiba Inu and Dogecoin losing 30% and 25%, respectively. Meanwhile Terra Luna, which was among the top 10 most valuable cryptocurrencies had 98% of its value wiped out overnight, falling to below one dollar per coin.
Immediately after becoming the interim CEO of Starbucks (NASDAQ: SBUX), Howard Schultz suspended the company’s share-repurchase program. “This decision will allow us to invest more into our people and our stores — the only way to create long-term value for all stakeholders,” he said in a press release.
Snowflake, Meta, Microsoft and Uber — are all down from 20% to as much as 60% year to date. The technology stock sector, especially unprofitable firms and richly valued software names, have been hit the hardest as of late. The NASDAQ Composite slid more than 13% in April, dropping almost 30% from its all-time high.
President Biden, anticipating the milestone of one million American lives lost to Covid-19, said in a formal statement on Thursday that the United States must stay committed to fighting a virus that has “forever changed” the country.
Finally, Microsoft founder Bill Gatessaid on Tuesday that he tested positive for COVID-19 and is experiencing mild symptoms. In a series of tweets, the billionaire shared that he was “lucky to be vaccinated” and will be isolating until he’s healthy again.
In a recent article on the Mises Institute’s Power and Market blog, Kyle Ward appealed to the subjective theory of value to castigate Peter Schiff for his notorious skepticism of Bitcoin:
According to Investopedia, a stablecoin is a class of cryptocurrencies that attempt to offer price stability and are backed by a reserve asset. Stablecoins have gained traction as they attempt to offer the best of both worlds—the instant processing and security or privacy of payments of cryptocurrencies, and the volatility-free stable valuations of fiat currencies.
Stablecoins are cryptocurrencies that attempt to peg their market value to some external reference.
Stablecoins may be pegged to a currency like the U.S. dollar or to a commodity’s price such as gold.
Stablecoins achieve their price stability via collateralization (backing) or through algorithmic mechanisms of buying and selling the reference asset or its derivatives.
Markets: After booming stocks had their worst day of the year because of raging inflation, slowing economic growth, and a potential recession.
Crypto: Bitcoin and other major cryptos like ethereum also tumbled in the aftermath of the FOMC announcement. They’ve typically tracked the performance of growth stocks, which have gotten hammered on the prospect of higher interest rates.
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Almost every major online retailer reporting earnings with signs of a decline:
Wayfair shares cratered nearly 26% yesterday after announcing that its active customer count dropped 23.4% from a year ago.
Bed Bath & Beyond reported an 18% nosedive in online sales.
Etsy and eBay shares both dropped by double digits yesterday after giving weak guidance for the current quarter.
At least five senior executives from Meta’s fledgling e-commerce division have fled in the last six months.
Shopify shares plummeted about 15% on Thursday after posting much lower-than-expected earnings.
The IRS treats virtual currencies as property, which means they’re taxed similarly to stocks. If all you did was purchase cryptocurrency with U.S. dollars, and those assets have been sitting untouched in an exchange or your cryptocurrency wallet, you shouldn’t need to worry about reporting to the IRS.
***
Reporting is required when certain events come into play, most commonly:
Trading one cryptocurrency for another.
Selling cryptocurrency for fiat dollars (government-issued currency).
Using cryptocurrency to buy goods or services (e.g., paying for a cup of coffee with cryptocurrency).
A critical distinction to make is that triggering a taxable event doesn’t necessarily mean you’ll owe taxes, said Andrew Gordon, an Illinois-based certified public accountant and tax attorney. Just because you have to report a transaction doesn’t mean you’ll end up owing the IRS for it.
Markets: The domestic markets were closed yesterday as stocks around the world tumbled.
Crypto: Bitcoin was trading at $36,649 at 2:30 a.m. ET, falling nearly 6.5% in the last 24 hours, according to data from CoinDesk. The world’s most valuable cryptocurrency fell below $40,000 over the weekend, and has continued to slide as the Ukraine crisis intensifies. The currency has lost almost half its value since its November high of $68,990 due to geopolitical tensions, the prospect of interest rate hikes by the US Federal Reserve and curbs by some major economies on digital assets. Bitcoin’s peers have also been faring poorly. Ethereum, the world’s second most valuable cryptocurrency, fell over 8% in the last 24 hours and was trading at $2,520.
Putin: Russian President Vladimir Putin dramatically escalated the Ukrainian conflict. He recognized two separatist regions in eastern Ukraine as independent and ordered Russian troops to enter those areas, which may provide the pretext for an invasion of other parts of the country. Western leaders condemned the move as a violation of international law and the US said it will impose sanctions on those regions.
CRYPTO CURRENCY: Tonight, about 117 million people will watch celebrities pitch cryptocurrency on the Super Bowl. In what’s being dubbed the “Crypto Bowl,” a batch of crypto exchanges including FTX, Coinbase, and Crypto.com, will air Super Bowl commercials at a cost of up to $7 million per 30-second spot. The game is even being held at a stadium named after SoFi, a company that offers crypto trading.\
This isn’t the first time startups from an emerging industry have used the Super Bowl to introduce themselves to a mass audience. Does anyone remember the 2000 Super Bowl between the Rams and the Titans? That was known as the “Dot-Com Bowl.” Startups that were part of the dot-com wave of the early internet bought nearly 20% of the total ad slots in what is considered the peak of that tech bubble.
Well, that bubble burst. In fact, according to journalist Neal Freyman, of the 14 dot-com companies that purchased Super Bowl ads that year, four are still active, five were acquired, and five (including Pets.com, OnMoney.com, and Epidemic.com) are either defunct or their status is unclear.
Stock Markets: The S&P is off to its worst start to a year since 2016. The NASDAQ is in a correction. And the week ahead features a busy earnings slate and a Federal Reserve meeting.
CovisPandemic: Tony Dr. Fauci said he is “confident as you can be” that the Omicron wave in the US will peak by mid-February. In a growing number of states, that peak has already come and gone and cases are plunging in states like New York and Florida. Other states, such as Oklahoma, Idaho, and Wyoming, are still reporting an uptick in new Covid cases.
Crypto-Currency: Crypto investors, meanwhile, wish they got the weekend off like stock traders, because bitcoin, ethereum, and other digital tokens continued to sink.
Federal Reserve: Federal Reserve officials will get together on Tuesday and Wednesday against the backdrop of quaking markets. Investors will want to hear an update on Chair Jerome Powell’s views on inflation. This Fed meeting will likely be the last before an anticipated interest rate hike in March. And, a blizzard of companies will report including nearly half of the Dow’s 30 giants (American Express, 3M, IBM, and more) and tech heavyweights such as Apple, Microsoft, and Tesla.
Tax Season: The income tax filing season opens today and government officials warn it could be bumpy due to a depleted IRS. The Treasury says to file early, file online, and request your refund via direct deposit to avoid the severe headaches.
Stock Markets: The S&P is off to its worst start to a year since 2016, and the NASDAQ fell 4.5% this week—its worst drop since February 2021. The Fed’s hawkish pivot + rising bond yields are really pounding technology stocks.
Crypto-Currency: Bitcoin fell to its lowest level since last September, and other cryptos like ethereum and solana are also in the doghouse. It appears as though the Fed’s move to raise borrowing costs and the turmoil in mining powerhouse Kazakhstan are dragging down prices.
Markets: With stocks selling off sharply last week, at least we still have Crypto, right? Right? Bitcoin tanked more than 20% at one point this weekend, dragging many other digital tokens with it. El Salvador, for one, bought the dip.
Covid: At first glance, Omicron does not appear to cause more severe illness, Dr. Fauci said yesterday. Early results out of South Africa, where Omicron is spreading, show it’s not driving up hospitalizations. Fauci called the data “a bit encouraging.”
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