BOARD CERTIFICATION EXAM STUDY GUIDES Lower Extremity Trauma
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On March 29, the House of Representatives voted 414-5 in favor of the Securing a Strong Retirement Act of 2022. If passed by the Senate, and then signed into law by President Joe Biden, the act could represent a massive economic policy shift regarding retirement savings and investment.
The retirement savings legislation, also known as SECURE Act 2.0, expands on the original SECURE Act and includes provisions to boost the required minimum distribution (RMD) age from 72 to 75 over time, broaden automatic enrollment in retirement plans, and enhance 403(b) plans.
More than $11 trillion in value has been erased from global stocks since the end of March. And, despite a a pop last Friday, many analysts don’t think we’ve hit the bottom yet. Fewer than 30% of S&P companies have hit a one-year low during this downturn, compared to almost 50% during 2018’s rout and 82% during the financial crisis in 2008, according to Bloomberg.
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Capitulation means surrender. In financial markets, capitulation marks the point in time when a large enough proportion of investors simultaneously give up hopes of recouping recent losses, typically as the decline in prices gathers speed.
According to MarketWatch, the latest bull market for U.S. stocks remains on the brink of expiring, with the benchmark S&P 500 just shy of the threshold that marks bear territory.
Going ganular, the S&P 500 SPX, +2.39% finished 0.1% lower at 3,930.08 on Wednesday, after falling as far as 3,858.87 at its session low. That was the index’s lowest close since March 25, 2021, and left it 18.1% below its record finish from early January. A Friday bounce for stocks saw the S&P 500 nearly halve its decline for the week to 2.4%, closing at 4023.89.
Here were a few floating around the internet this week, according to Neal Freyman:
When Matt Damon said, “Fortune favors the brave” in a Crypto.com commercial in October 2021. (It actually was kinda the top, because bitcoin peaked at $69,000 a few weeks later.)
When one investor went on CNBC last year to promote his investment in a lending platform called Upstart, he was asked what Upstart does. He hesitated, told the anchor his audio had cut out, and never responded.
When Dogecoin surged more than 10,000% to become the fourth most valuable cryptocurrency ahead of Elon Musk hosting SNL.
When electric vehicle startup Rivian was worth more than $110 billion and didn’t bring in any revenue.
When NFT platform OpenSea raised money at a $13.3 billion valuation—more than the value of American Airlines.
Until recently, giga-cap technology stocks like Apple (NASDAQ: AAPL) and Microsoft (NASDAQ: MSFT) had large avoided the full brunt of the bear market in the NASDAQ, even as smaller companies lost 50% to 80% or more of their value.
However, over the past couple of months, some of the largest companies in the market, including Meta Platforms (NASDAQ: FB), Netflix (NASDAQ: NFLX), and Amazon.com (NASDAQ: AMZN), started to move sharply lower. Those big-name moves put a bigger dent in market capitalization-weighted benchmarks.
BroaderMarkets: But, the good news is that stocks surged on the best day for the NASDAQ since November 2020. The bad news is the S&P is now in its longest weekly losing streak since 2011, and the Dow’s weekly losing streak is its longest since 2001.
As a general guide, according to financial advisor Wes Moss, if your monthly pension check equals 6 percent or more of the lump-sum offer, then you may want to go for the perpetual monthly payment. If the number is below 6 percent, then you could do as well (or better) by taking the lump sum and investing it, and then paying yourself each year (like a personal pension that you control).
Here’s how the math works:
Take your monthly pension offer and multiply it by 12, then divide that number by the lump-sum offer.
Example 1: $1,000 a month for life beginning at age 65 or $160,000 lump sum today?
$1,000 x 12 = $12,000 divided by $160,000 equals 7.5 percent.
Here, you would have to make approximately 7.5 percent per year on the $160,000 to earn the same $12,000 a year. Earning 7.5 percent a year consistently and over many years is a tall order. Taking the monthly amount in this case (7.5 percent is greater than 6 percent) may likely be a better deal over the long haul.
Example 2: $708 a month for life or a $170,000 lump sum today?
$708 x 12 = $8,496 divided by $170,000 equals 5 percent.
In this scenario, the monthly pension amount is offering you a return for life of about 5 percent. Remember, for the first 20 years even earning zero percent, you could do the same before you run out of money. If you made even a modest return (say, 2 percent per year), you would be far ahead of what the monthly pension would pay you. In this case, 5 percent is less than the benchmark of 6 percent, so you might be better off taking the lump sum of $170,000.
The IRS destroyed data for an estimated 30 million filers in March 2021, according to the Treasury Inspector General for Tax Administration. The decision, prompted by a backlog of paper filings, has sparked anger in the tax community. “It just further damages the IRS’ reputation in the business community and in the public,” said Larry Harris, director of tax services at Parsec Financial.
More than $200 billion has been wiped off the cryptocurrency market today alone, as investors are sent into a panic. Ethereum, the world’s second largest digital currency plummeted by 20% in the space of 24 hours. Bitcoin, the original cryptocurrency started in 2009, dropped by 9%, but overall it is down 50% since its all time high in November. Chaos on the market has seen other currencies such as Shiba Inu and Dogecoin losing 30% and 25%, respectively. Meanwhile Terra Luna, which was among the top 10 most valuable cryptocurrencies had 98% of its value wiped out overnight, falling to below one dollar per coin.
Immediately after becoming the interim CEO of Starbucks (NASDAQ: SBUX), Howard Schultz suspended the company’s share-repurchase program. “This decision will allow us to invest more into our people and our stores — the only way to create long-term value for all stakeholders,” he said in a press release.
Snowflake, Meta, Microsoft and Uber — are all down from 20% to as much as 60% year to date. The technology stock sector, especially unprofitable firms and richly valued software names, have been hit the hardest as of late. The NASDAQ Composite slid more than 13% in April, dropping almost 30% from its all-time high.
President Biden, anticipating the milestone of one million American lives lost to Covid-19, said in a formal statement on Thursday that the United States must stay committed to fighting a virus that has “forever changed” the country.
Finally, Microsoft founder Bill Gatessaid on Tuesday that he tested positive for COVID-19 and is experiencing mild symptoms. In a series of tweets, the billionaire shared that he was “lucky to be vaccinated” and will be isolating until he’s healthy again.
DEFINITION: The PPI is a group of indexes that measure the change, over time, in the prices received by domestic producers of goods and services. It measures price changes from the perspective of the seller rather than the consumer, as with the CPI. The CPI would include imported goods, while the PPI is relevant to U.S. producers, and therefore would not include imports.
The PPI measures over 10,000 products and services. It reports the price changes prior to the retail level. This information is useful to the government in formulating fiscal and monetary policies. The data gathered from the PPI is often used in escalating purchase and sales contracts. That is the dollar amount to be paid at some time in the future.
NOTE: Long-term managed medical care contracts of the future will seek escalation clauses for increases in prices.
Carvana, the fast-growing used-car seller based in Tempe, announced its plans to lay off 2,500 employees – more than 10% of its workforce – as losses mount. The company, which operates a network of high-profile vehicle “vending machines” including one at Loop 202 and Scottsdale Road, said the move was designed to “better align staffing and expense levels with sales volumes.” Carvana reported a $506 million loss in its first quarter ending March 31st, well above red ink of $82 million during the same stretch of 2021, despite a 56% jump in revenue to $3.5 billion and a 14% increase in vehicles sold.
And, new inflation data scared some investors, who continued to dump riskier assets like cryptocurrencies amid the ongoing market selloff: The price of Bitcoin fell up to 7%, to around $29,000, according to Coin Metrics, before paring back losses. The price of the Terra (LUNA) cryptocurrency has fallen by more than 99 per cent, wiping out the fortunes of crypto investors. Terra, which ranked among the top 10 most valuable cryptocurrencies, dropped below $1 on Wednesday, having peaked close to $120 last month.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 215 points, or 0.7%, to 31,949 after swinging between gains and losses after the opening bell.
The S&P 500 shed 46 points, or 1.2%, to 3,954.
The NASDAQ Composite fell 296 points, or 2.5%, to 11,445.
The national average for a gallon of gas surged to $4.40, the highest price recorded by AAA since it began keeping track in 2000 (though lower when adjusted for inflation than the high-water mark in July 2008, when gas was $5.36 per gallon in today’s dollars).
Finally, the US federal government’s budget deficit has shrunk by some $1.57 trillion so far this fiscal year, driven by record receipts from a strong economy and a slowdown in spending as pandemic-era programs fade.
In a recent article on the Mises Institute’s Power and Market blog, Kyle Ward appealed to the subjective theory of value to castigate Peter Schiff for his notorious skepticism of Bitcoin:
According to Investopedia, a stablecoin is a class of cryptocurrencies that attempt to offer price stability and are backed by a reserve asset. Stablecoins have gained traction as they attempt to offer the best of both worlds—the instant processing and security or privacy of payments of cryptocurrencies, and the volatility-free stable valuations of fiat currencies.
Stablecoins are cryptocurrencies that attempt to peg their market value to some external reference.
Stablecoins may be pegged to a currency like the U.S. dollar or to a commodity’s price such as gold.
Stablecoins achieve their price stability via collateralization (backing) or through algorithmic mechanisms of buying and selling the reference asset or its derivatives.
An Interview with the former Chairman, President, and CEO of Washington Mutual Bank, Kerry Killinger
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DEFINITION: In economics, inflation refers to a general progressive increase in prices of goods and services in an economy. When the general price level rises, each unit of currency buys fewer goods and services; consequently, inflation corresponds to a reduction in the purchasing power of money.
Editor’s Note: We hope you enjoy the podcast video below. If you’d rather just listen to the podcast, click this link to Apple Podcasts: The Common Bridge. It is also available on all podcast platforms. We have also included the transcript to this program below.
Palantir Technologies Inc., Peter Thiel’s single-biggest equity position, plummeted as much as 23% Monday after it reported widening losses and slow revenue growth. The slump erased $270 million from the value of Thiel’s stake. So far this year he’s shed 19% of his net worth, now valued at $7.4 billion, according to the Bloomberg Billionaires Index.
10 Year T-Bond: 2.987%
Economy: The Consumer Price Index report will drop this morning and give us inflation data for April.
NOTE: The CPI is a price of an index or the price of a weighted average market basket of consumer goods and services purchased by households. Changes in measured CPI track changes in prices over time.
A Vital Feedback Loop for any Medical Professional’s Investment Program
By Dr. David Edward Marcinko MBA, CMP™
[Publisher-in-Chief]
While recently visiting the beautiful Johns Hopkins University and Medical School in Baltimore Maryland, I realized that investment portfolio performance measurement — much like an annual physical exam in the Spring — is an important feedback loop to monitor progress towards the goals of the medical professional’s investment program.
Performance comparisons to market indices and/or peer groups are a useful part of this feedback loop, as long as they are considered in the context of the market environment and with the limitations of market index and manager database construction. Inherent to performance comparisons is the reality that portfolios taking greater risk will tend to out-perform less risky investments during bullish phases of a market cycle, but are also more likely to under-perform during the bearish phase. The reason for focusing on performance comparisons over a full market cycle is that the phases biasing results in favor of higher risk approaches can be balanced with less favorable environments for aggressive approaches to lessen/eliminate those biases.
THINK: The “flash crash” of March 2009, and the DJIA now hovering near 12,000 of late.
The Biases
Can we eliminate the biases of the market environment by adjusting performance for the risk assumed by the portfolio? While several interesting calculations have been developed to measure risk-adjusted performance, the unfortunate answer is that the biases of the market environment still tend to have an impact even after adjusting returns for various measures of risk.
However, medical professionals and their advisors will have many different risk-adjusted return statistics presented to them, so understanding the Sharpe ratio, Treynor ratio, Jensen’s measure or alpha, Morningstar star ratings, etc. and their limitations should help to improve the decisions made from the performance measurement feedback loop.
And, these are discussed elsewhere on this ME-P.
Conclusion
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Speaker: If you need a moderator or speaker for an upcoming event, Dr. David E. Marcinko; MBA – Publisher-in-Chief of the Medical Executive-Post – is available for seminar or speaking engagements. Contact: MarcinkoAdvisors@msn.com
OUR OTHER PRINT BOOKS AND RELATED INFORMATION SOURCES:
Bitcoinis now almost 50% off its all-time high. If bitcoin is a store of value, it certainly hasn’t proven itself yet. With bitcoin’s price falling below $30,000 for the first time since July 2021, at least 40% of bitcoin investors are underwater.
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Markets: The S&P fell below 4,000 points for the first time in more than a year as inflation concerns trampled a day down on Wall Street. Big Tech companies lost more than $1 trillion in market value over the past three trading sessions alone.
Last night, the Dow Jones Industrial Average futures lost 191 points, down 0.6%, while the S&P 500 futures declined 0.8% and NASDAQ Composite futures fell 0.9%.
Crude oil futures (West Texas Intermediate) fell 0.2%, to $109.54 a barrel.
Tiger Global, the hedge fund with the most investments in private billion-dollar startups, is going through one of the worst stretches of any hedge fund in history, falling 44% so far this year and 15% in April alone.
This week’s notableeconomic events include: On Tuesday, the National Federation of Independent Business releases its Small Business Optimism Index for April. On Wednesday, the Bureau of Labor Statistics reports the consumer price index for April. On Thursday, the BLS releases the producer price index for April, and the Department of Labor reports initial jobless claims for the week ended on May 7. On Friday, the University of Michigan releases its Consumer Sentiment Index for May.
The following are some of the most common psychological biases. Some are learned while others are genetically determined (and often socially reinforced). While this essay focuses on the financial implications of these biases, they are prevalent in most areas in life.
[A] Incentives
It is broadly accepted that incenting someone to do something is effective, whether it be paying office staff a commissions to sell more healthcare products, or giving bonuses to office employees if they work efficiently to see more HMO patients. What is not well understood is that the incentives cause a sub-conscious distortion of decision-making ability in the incented person. This distortion causes the affected person – whether it is yourself or someone else – to truly believe in a certain decision, even if it is the wrong choice when viewed objectively. Service professionals, including financial advisors and lawyers, are affected by this bias, and it causes them to honestly offer recommendations that may be inappropriate, and that they would recognize as being inappropriate if they did not have this bias. The existence of this bias makes it important for each one of us to examine our incentive biases and take extra care when advising physician clients, or to make sure we are appropriately considering non-incented alternatives.
[B] Denial
Denial is a well known, but under-appreciated, psychological force. Physicians, clients and professionals (like everyone else) are prone to the mistake of ignoring a painful reality, like putting off an unpleasant call (thus prolonging a problematic situation and potentially making it worse) or not opening account statements because of the desire not to see quantitative proof of losses. Denial also manifests itself by causing human beings to ignore evidence that a mistake has been made. If you think of yourself as a smart person (and what professional doesn’t?), then evidence pointing to the conclusion that a mistake has been made will call into question that belief, causing cognitive dissonance. Our brains function to either avoid cognitive dissonance or to resolve it quickly, usually by discounting or rationalizing the disconfirming evidence. Not surprisingly, colleagues at Kansas State University and elsewhere, found that financial denial, including attempts to avoid thinking about or dealing with money, is associated with lower income, lower net worth, and higher levels of revolving credit.
[C] Consistency and Commitment Tendency
Human beings have evolved – probably both genetically and socially – to be consistent. It is easier and safer to deal with others if they honor their commitments and if they behave in a consistent and predictable manner over time. This allows people to work together and build trust that is needed for repeat dealings and to accomplish complex tasks. In the jungle, this trust was necessary to for humans to successfully work as a team to catch animals for dinner, or fight common threats. In business and life it is preferable to work with others who exhibit these tendencies. Unfortunately, the downside of these traits is that people make errors in judgment because of the strong desire not to change, or be different (“lemming effect” or “group-think”). So the result is that most people will seek out data that supports a prior stated belief or decision and ignore negative data, by not “thinking outside the box”. Additionally, future decisions will be unduly influenced by the desire to appear consistent with prior decisions, thus decreasing the ability to be rational and objective. The more people state their beliefs or decisions, the less likely they are to change even in the face of strong evidence that they should do so. This bias results in a strong force in most people causing them to avoid or quickly resolve the cognitive dissonance that occurs when a person who thinks of themselves as being consistent and committed to prior statements and actions encounters evidence that indicates that prior actions may have been a mistake. It is particularly important therefore for advisors to be aware that their communications with clients and the press clouds the advisor’s ability to seek out and process information that may prove current beliefs incorrect. Since this is obviously irrational, one must actively seek out negative information, and be very careful about what is said and written, being aware that the more you shout it out, the more you pound it in.
[D] Pattern Recognition
On a biological level, the human brain has evolved to seek out patterns and to work on stimuli-response patterns, both native and learned. What this means is that we all react to something based on our prior experiences that had shared characteristics with the current stimuli. Many situations have so many possible inputs that our brains need to take mental short cuts using pattern recognition we would not gain the benefit from having faced a certain type of problem in the past. This often-helpful mechanism of decision-making fails us when past correlations or patterns do not accurately represent the current reality, and thus the mental shortcuts impair our ability to analyze a new situation. This biologic and social need to seek out patterns that can be used to program stimuli-response mechanisms is especially harmful to rational decision-making when the pattern is not a good predictor of the desired outcome (like short term moves in the stock market not being predictive of long term equity portfolio performance), or when past correlations do not apply anymore.
[E] Social Proof
It is a subtle but powerful reality that having others agree with a decision one makes, gives that person more conviction in the decision, and having others disagree decreases one’s confidence in that decision. This bias is even more exaggerated when the other parties providing the validating/questioning opinions are perceived to be experts in a relevant field, or are authority figures, like people on television. In many ways, the short term moves in the stock market are the ultimate expression of social proof – the price of a stock one owns going up is proof that a lot of other people agree with the decision to buy, and a dropping stock price means a stock should be sold. When these stressors become extreme, it is of paramount importance that all participants in the financial planning process have a clear understanding of what the long-term goals are, and what processes are in place to monitor the progress towards these goals. Without these mechanisms it is very hard to resist the enormous pressure to follow the crowd; think social media.
[F] Contrast
Sensation, emotion and cognition work by contrast. Perception is not only on an absolute scale, it also functions relative to prior stimuli. This is why room temperature water feels hot when experienced after being exposed to the cold. It is also why the cessation of negative emotions “feels” so good. Cognitive functioning also works on this principle. So one’s ability to analyze information and draw conclusions is very much related to the context with in which the analysis takes place, and to what information was originally available. This is why it is so important to manage one’s own expectations as well as those of clients. A client is much more likely to be satisfied with a 10% portfolio return if they were expecting 7% than if they were hoping for 15%.
[G] Scarcity
Things that are scarce have more impact and perceived value than things present in abundance. Biologically, this bias is demonstrated by the decreasing response to constant stimuli (contrast bias) and socially it is widely believed that scarcity equals value. People who feel an opportunity may “pass them by” and thus be unavailable are much more likely to make a hasty, poorly reasoned decision than they otherwise would. Investment fads and rising security prices elicit this bias (along with social proof and others) and need to be resisted. Understanding that analysis in the face of perceived scarcity is often inadequate and biased may help professionals make more rational choices, and keep clients from chasing fads.
[H] Envy / Jealousy
This bias also relates to the contrast and social proof biases. Prudent financial and business planning and related decision-making are based on real needs followed by desires. People’s happiness and satisfaction is often based more on one’s position relative to perceived peers rather than an ability to meet absolute needs. The strong desire to “keep up with the Jones” can lead people to risk what they have and need for what they want. These actions can have a disastrous impact on important long-term financial goals. Clear communication and vivid examples of risks is often needed to keep people focused on important financial goals rather than spurious ones, or simply money alone, for its own sake.
[I] Fear
Financial fear is probably the most common emotion among physicians and all clients. The fear of being wrong – as well as the fear of being correct! It can be debilitating, as in the corollary expression on fear: the paralysis of analysis.
According to Paul Karasik, there are four common investor and physician fears, which can be addressed by financial advisors in the following manner:
Fear of making the wrong decision: ameliorated by being a teacher and educator.
Fear of change: ameliorated by providing an agenda, outline and/or plan.
Fear of giving up control: ameliorated by asking for permission and agreement.
Fear of losing self-esteem: ameliorated by serving the client first and communicating that sentiment in a positive manner.
Now, as human beings, our brains are booby-trapped with psychological barriers that stand between making smart financial decisions and making dumb ones. The good news is that once you realize your own mental weaknesses, it’s not impossible to overcome them.
In fact, Mandi Woodruff, a financial reporter whose work has appeared in Yahoo! Finance, Daily Finance, The Wall Street Journal, The Fiscal Times and the Financial Times among others; related the following mind-traps in a September 2013 essay for the finance vertical Business Insider; as these impediments are now entering the lay-public zeitgeist:
Anchoring happens when we place too much emphasis on the first piece of information we receive regarding a given subject. For instance, when shopping for a wedding ring a salesman might tell us to spend three months’ salary. After hearing this, we may feel like we are doing something wrong if we stray from this advice, even though the guideline provided may cause us to spend more than we can afford.
Myopia makes it hard for us to imagine what our lives might be like in the future. For example, because we are young, healthy, and in our prime earning years now, it may be hard for us to picture what life will be like when our health depletes and we know longer have the earnings necessary to support our standard of living. This short-sightedness makes it hard to save adequately when we are young, when saving does the most good.
Gambler’s fallacy occurs when we subconsciously believe we can use past events to predict the future. It is common for the hottest sector during one calendar year to attract the most investors the following year. Of course, just because an investment did well last year doesn’t mean it will continue to do well this year. In fact, it is more likely to lag the market.
Avoidance is simply procrastination. Even though you may only have the opportunity to adjust your health care plan through your employer once per year, researching alternative health plans is too much work and too boring for us to get around to it. Consequently, we stick with a plan that may not be best for us.
Loss aversion affected many investors during the stock market crash of 2008. During the crash, many people decided they couldn’t afford to lose more and sold their investments. Of course, this caused the investors to sell at market troughs and miss the quick, dramatic recovery.
Overconfident investing happens when we believe we can out-smart other investors via market timing or through quick, frequent trading. Data convincingly shows that people who trade most often under-perform the market by a significant margin over time.
Mental accounting takes place when we assign different values to money depending on where we get it from. For instance, even though we may have an aggressive saving goal for the year, it is likely easier for us to save money that we worked for than money that was given to us as a gift.
Herd mentality makes it very hard for humans to not take action when everyone around us does. For example, we may hear stories of people making significant profits buying, fixing up, and flipping homes and have the desire to get in on the action, even though we have no experience in real estate.
TERMS & DEFINITIONS FOR PHYSICIANSAND ALL INVESTORS:
PRUDENT BUYER: The efficient purchaser of market balance between value and cost.
PRUDENT MAN RULE: An 1830 court case stating that a person in a fiduciary capacity (a trustee, executor, custodian, etc) must conduct him/herself faithfully and exercise sound judgment when investing monies under care. “He is to observe how men of prudence, discretion and intelligence manage their own affairs, not in regard to speculation, but in regard to the permanent distribution of their funds, considering the probable income as well as the probable safety of the capital to be invested.” Allows for mutual funds and variable annuities.
PRUDENT INVESTOR RULE: A fiduciary is required to conduct him/herself faithfully and exercise sound judgment when investing monies and take measured and reasonable investment risks in return for potential future rewards. Allows for mutual funds, stocks, bonds, variable annuities asset allocation & Modern Portfolio Theory.
EDITOR’SNOTE: We interviewed noted authority Ben Aikin AIF® on this topic more than a decade ago. He was ahead of his time regarding fiduciary accountability and we appreciate his insights.
Biden Administration to Overhaul Vertical Merger Guidelines
The U.S. healthcare industry has seen a rise in vertical integration transactions since the passage of the ACA, especially among physician groups integrating with health systems or insurers, as providers seek to fill gaps in their continuum of care. In response to these trends and resulting market imbalances, the Biden Administration is aggressively pursuing antitrust enforcement by updating and revising U.S. antitrust law guidance.
This Health Capital Topics article will discuss the vertical integration movement and the proposed changes to antitrust laws that may affect the future of healthcare. (Read more…)
Markets: All three indexes closed lower (the Dow’s sixth-straight week) following the FOMC’s guidance on future interest rate hikes. Peloton shares fell to a record low yesterday with new CEO Barry McCarthy’s revival plan not inspiring confidence.
Economy: The April jobs report showed a labor market that continues to chug along. US employers added a more-than-expected 428,000 jobs and the unemployment rate remained low at 3.6%. The economy has recovered almost 95% of the jobs lost due to Covid pandemic.
The financial services industry is turning to bold initiatives to propel from pandemic response to business growth. And, among financial services institutions, 62% are looking to ramp up tech investments, and another 62% expect to move IT and business functions to the cloud, compared with 46% across industries.
For example, in a recent report, Nucleus Research found that cloud deployments deliver four times the return on investment as on-premises deployments do.
You’ve got a sense of your ideal retirement age. And you’ve probably made certain plans based on that timeline. But what if you’re forced to retire sooner than you expect? Aging baby-boomers, corporate medicine, the medical practice great resignation and/or the pandemic, etc?
Early retirement is nothing new, but it’s clear how much the COVID-19 pandemic has affected an aging workforce. Whether due to downsizing, objections to vaccine mandates, concerns about exposure risks, other health issues, or the desire for more leisure time, the retired general population grew by 3.5 million over the past two years—compared to an annual average of 1 million between 2008 and 2019—according to the Pew Research Center.1 At the same time, a survey conducted by the National Institute on Retirement Security revealed that more than half of Americans are concerned that the COVID-19 pandemic has impacted their ability to achieve a secure retirement.2
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There’s no need to panic, but those numbers make one thing clear, says Rob Williams, managing director of financial planning, retirement income, and wealth management for the Schwab Center for Financial Research. Flexible and personalized financial planning that addresses how you’d cope if you had to retire early can help you make the best use of all your resources.
So – Here are six steps to follow. We’ll use as an example a person who’s seeing if they could retire five years early, but the steps remain the same regardless of your individual time frame.
Step 1: Think strategically about pension and Social Security benefits
For most retirees, Social Security and (to a lesser degree) pensions are the two primary sources of regular income in retirement. You usually can collect these payments early—at age 62 for Social Security and sometimes as early as age 55 with a pension. However, taking benefits early will mean that you get smaller monthly benefits for the rest of your life. That can matter to your bottom line, even if you expect Social Security to be merely the icing on your retirement cake.
On the Social Security website, you can find a projection of what your benefits would be if you were pushed to claim them several years early. But if you’re part of a two-income couple, you may want to make an appointment at a Social Security office or with a financial professional to weigh the potential options.
For example, when you die, your spouse is eligible to receive your monthly benefit if it’s higher than his or her own. But if you claim your benefits early, thus receiving a reduced amount, you’re likewise limiting your spouse’s potential survivor benefit.
If you have a pension, your employer’s pension administrator can help estimate your monthly pension payments at various ages. Once you have these estimates, you’ll have a good idea of how much monthly income you can count on at any given point in time.
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Step 2: Pressure-test your 401(k)
In addition to weighing different strategies to maximize your Social Security and/or pension, evaluate how much income you could potentially derive from your personal retirement savings—and there’s a silver lining here if you’re forced to retire early.
Rule of 55
Let’s say you leave your job at any time during or after the calendar year you turn 55 (or age 50 if you’re a public safety employee with a government defined-benefit plan). Under a little-known separation-of-service provision, often referred to as the “rule of 55,” you may be able take distributions (though some plans may allow only one lump-sum withdrawal) from your 401(k), 403(b), or other qualified retirement plan free of the usual 10% early-withdrawal penalties. However, be aware that you’ll still owe ordinary income taxes on the amount distributed.
This exception applies only to the plan (including any consolidated accounts) that you were contributing to when you separated from service. It does not extend to IRAs.
4% rule
There’s also a simple rule of thumb suggesting that if you spend 4% or less of your savings in your first year of retirement and then adjust for inflation each year following, your savings are likely to last for at least 30 years—given that you make no other changes to your withdrawals, such as a lump sum withdrawal for a one-time expense or a slight reduction in withdrawals during a down market.
To see how much monthly income you could count on if you retired as expected in five years, multiply your current savings by 4% and divide by 12. For example, $1 million x .04 = $40,000. Divide that by 12 to get $3,333 per month in year one of retirement. (Again, you could increase that amount with inflation each year thereafter.) Then do the same calculation based on your current savings to see how much you’d have to live on if you retired today. Keep in mind that your money will have to last five years longer in this instance.
Knowing the monthly amount your current savings can generate will give you a clearer sense of whether you’ll have a shortfall—and how large or small it might be. Use our retirement savings calculator to test different saving amounts and time frames.
Step 3: Don’t forget about health insurance, doctor!
Nobody wants to spend down a big chunk of their retirement savings on unanticipated healthcare costs in the years between early retirement and Medicare eligibility at age 65. If you lose your employer-sponsored health insurance, you’ll want to find some coverage until you can apply for Medicare.
Your options may include continuing employer-sponsored coverage through COBRA, insurance enrollment through the Health Insurance Marketplace at HealthCare.gov, or joining your spouse’s health insurance plan. You may also find discounted coverage through organizations you belong to—for example, the AARP.
Step 4: Create a post-retirement budget
To make sure your retirement savings will cover your expenses, add up the monthly income you could get from pensions, Social Security, and your savings. Then, compare the total to your anticipated monthly expenses (including income taxes) if you were to retire five years early and are eligible, and choose to file, for Social Security and pension benefits earlier.
Take into account various life events and expenditures you may encounter. You may not pay off your mortgage by the date you’d planned. Your spouse might still be working (which can add income but also prolong certain expenses). Or your children might not be out of college yet.
You’re probably fine if you anticipate that your monthly expenses will be lower than your income. But if you think your expenses would be higher than your early-retirement income, some suggest that you take one or more of these measures:
Retire later; practice longer.
Save more now to fill some of the potential gap.
Trim your budget so there’s less of a gap down the road.
Consider options for medical consulting or part-time work—and begin to explore some of those opportunities now.
To the last point, finding a physician job later in life can be challenging, but certain employment agencies specialize in this area. If you can find work you like that covers a portion of your expenses, you’ll have the option of delaying Social Security and your company pension to get higher payments later—and you can avoid dipping into your retirement savings prematurely.
When you retire early, you have to walk a fine line with your portfolio’s asset allocation—investing aggressively enough that your money has the potential to grow over a long retirement, but also conservatively enough to minimize the chance of big losses, particularly at the outset.
“Risk management is especially important during the first few years of retirement or if you retire early,” Rob notes, because it can be difficult to bounce back from a loss when you’re drawing down income from your portfolio and reducing the overall number of shares you own.
To strike a balance between growth and security, start by making sure you have enough money stashed in relatively liquid, relatively stable investments—such as money market accounts, CDs, or high-quality short-term bonds—to cover at least a year or two of living expenses. Divide the rest of your portfolio among stocks, bonds, and other fixed-income investments. And don’t hesitate to seek professional help to arrive at the right mix.
Many people are unaccustomed to thinking about their expenses because they simply spend what they make when working, Rob says. But one of the most valuable decisions you can make about your life in retirement is to reevaluate where your money is going now.
This serves two aims. First, it’s a reality check on the spending plan you’ve envisioned for retirement, which may be idealized (e.g., “I’ll do all the home maintenance and repairs!”). Second, it enables you to adjust your spending habits ahead of schedule—whichever schedule you end up following. This gives you more control and potentially more income.
Step 6: Reevaluate your current spending
For example, if you’re not averse to downsizing, moving to a less expensive home could reduce your monthly mortgage, property tax, and insurance payments while freeing up equity that could also be invested to provide additional monthly income.
“When you are saving for retirement, time is on your side”. You lose that advantage when you’re forced to retire early, but having a backup plan that anticipates the possibility of an early retirement can make the unknowns you face a lot less daunting.
Markets: After booming stocks had their worst day of the year because of raging inflation, slowing economic growth, and a potential recession.
Crypto: Bitcoin and other major cryptos like ethereum also tumbled in the aftermath of the FOMC announcement. They’ve typically tracked the performance of growth stocks, which have gotten hammered on the prospect of higher interest rates.
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Almost every major online retailer reporting earnings with signs of a decline:
Wayfair shares cratered nearly 26% yesterday after announcing that its active customer count dropped 23.4% from a year ago.
Bed Bath & Beyond reported an 18% nosedive in online sales.
Etsy and eBay shares both dropped by double digits yesterday after giving weak guidance for the current quarter.
At least five senior executives from Meta’s fledgling e-commerce division have fled in the last six months.
Shopify shares plummeted about 15% on Thursday after posting much lower-than-expected earnings.
Stagflation is characterized by slow economic growth and relatively high unemployment—or economic stagnation—which is at the same time accompanied by rising prices (i.e., inflation). Stagflation can be alternatively defined as a period of inflation combined with a decline in the gross domestic product (GDP).
Stagflation refers to an economy that is experiencing a simultaneous increase in inflation and stagnation of economic output.
Stagflation was first recognized during the 1970s when many developed economies experienced rapid inflation and high unemployment as a result of an oil shock.1
The prevailing economic theory at the time could not easily explain how stagflation could occur.
Since the 1970s, rising price levels during periods of slow or negative economic growth have become somewhat of the norm rather than an exceptional situation.
FOMC: The Federal Reserve approved a rare half-percentage-point interest rate increase and announced plans to shrink its $9 trillion asset portfolio starting next month in an effort to reduce inflation that is running at a four-decade high.
Markets: Stocks boomed after Fed Chair Jerome Powell spoke. Still, JPMorgan CEO Jamie Dimon pegged the probability of a recession at 33% and a “soft landing” (lower inflation, no recession) also at 33%.
And Lyft, the ride-hailing company lost nearly 30% of its value after its profit outlook came in below forecast. Uber tried to distance itself from its ailing rival, saying that it does not need to spend money recruiting drivers like Lyft does.
Cinco deMayo commemorates the defeat of French forces by the Mexican army at the Battle of Puebla in 1862, but its popularity jumped in the 1980s, when beer companies leveraged it in aggressive marketing campaigns. Now, Cinco de Mayo is a day for celebrating Mexican culture and, interestingly, it’s now more popular in the US than in Mexico.
In this podcast, host Dara Albright and guest, Eric Satz, Founder and CEO of Alto IRA, discuss how modern Self-Directed IRAs (SDIRAs) are democratizing retirement planning by providing all Americans with the ability to add non-correlated alternative asset classes to tax-advantaged accounts.
The single greatest – and free – investment tool is also disclosed.
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Discussion highlights include:
How SDIRAs offer wealth building opportunities for “not-yet accredited investors”;
How SDIRAs have evolved to accommodate micro-sized alternative investments;
Why alternative assets belong in retirement vehicles;
Three reasons most retirement savers are underweighted in non-correlated assets;
Trading cryptocurrencies without tax consequences;
Why RIAs are looking to ALTO for clients’ crypto allocation;
Markets: Led by energy, stocks posted their second straight day of gains. But some see danger ahead given the FOMC raising interest rates with slowing growth [stagflation]. Hedge fund billionaire Paul Tudor Jones told CNBC, “You can’t think of a worse environment than where we are right now for financial assets.”
I was interviewed on PBS Newshour about the insanity that is happening in the NFT (non-fungible token) market. You can watch it here. If you read my “I Kid You Not Crazy” article, then you know everything I have to say about NFTs and cryptocurrency. I can sum up my thoughts on NFTs in one sentence: NFTs, just like cryptocurrencies, are a technology of the future, but a speculative bubble induced by excess global liquidity in the present.
Markets: Stocks rallied very late in the day to close in the positive green. It may be the start of a turnaround or just a rest before they resume their decline.
Bonds: Over in the bond market, the yield on the 10-year Treasury note touched 3% for the first time since 2018, continuing an upward trend that coincides with the Fed’s move to raise interest rates and shrink its balance sheet.
Economy: The US economy is projected to recover all of the 22 million jobs it lost at the beginning of COVID by this summer, according to Fitch Ratings. Back in the fall of 2020, Moody’s warned that the US wouldn’t recoup all of those jobs until 2024.
DEFINITION: In corporate finance, a tender offer is a type of public takeover bid. The tender offer is a public, open offer or invitation (usually announced in a newspaper advertisement) by a prospective acquirer to all stockholders of a publicly traded corporation (the target corporation) to tender their stock for sale at a specified price during a specified time, subject to the tendering of a minimum and maximum number of shares.
In a tender offer, the bidder contacts shareholders directly; the directors of the company may or may not have endorsed the tender offer proposal.
What it is – How it works
[Courtesy Wikipedia and staff reporters]
AKA “The Fear Gauge”
The CBOE Volatility Index, known by its ticker symbol VIX, is a popular measure of the stock market’s expectation of volatility implied by S&P 500 index options, calculated and published by the Chicago Board Options Exchange (CBOE). It is colloquially referred to as the fear index or the fear gauge.
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According to Wikipedia, the formulation of a volatility index, and financial instruments based on such an index, were developed by Menachem Brenner and Dan Galai in 1986 and described in academic papers. The authors stated the “volatility index, to be named Sigma Index, would be updated frequently and used as the underlying asset for futures and options. … A volatility index would play the same role as the market index play for options and futures on the index.”
In 1986, Brenner and Galai proposed to the American Stock Exchange the creation of a series of volatility indices, beginning with an index on stock market volatility, and moving to interest rate and foreign exchange rate volatility. In 1987, Brenner and Galai met with Joseph Levine and Deborah Clayworth at the Chicago Board of Options Exchange to propose various structures for a tradeable index on volatility; those discussions continued until 1991.
The current VIX concept formulates a theoretical expectation of stock market volatility in the near future. The current VIX index value quotes the expected annualized change in the S&P 500 index over the next 30 days, as computed from the options-based theory and current options-market data.
Assessment
The CBOE retained consultant Robert Whaley in 1992 to develop a tradable volatility instrument based on index option prices.[4] Since 1993, CBOE has published VIX real-time data. Based on historical index option prices, Whaley has computed a data series of retrospective daily VIX levels from January 1986 onward.
TODAY: May First, 2022 = 33.40+3.41 (11.37%) today
Conclusion
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The U.S. economy reversed course in this year’s first quarter, when it shrank at an annual rate of 1.4% after posting full-year growth of 5.7% in 2021. While many economists believe the first-quarter setback was temporary, it marked the worst quarterly GDP result since the second quarter of 2020, when the pandemic triggered a brief recession.
And, despite a relatively flat result in the latest week, the yield of the 10-year U.S. Treasury bond jumped in March and April, climbing from 1.83% at the start of that two-month period to around 2.89% on Friday. Rising interest rates have eroded bond prices, pushing yields higher.
Finally, the stock market’s relative calm in the first half of April was fleeting, as the past two weeks produced a 47% jump in an index that measures investors’ expectations of short-term volatility. The CBOE Volatility Indexꟷalso known as the VIXꟷrose to an index level of 33.4 on Friday, up from 22.7 on April 15.
In finance, a stock index, or stock market index, is an index that measures a stock market, or a subset of the stock market, that helps investors compare current stock price levels with past prices to calculate market performance.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average DJIA, -2.77% dropped 939.18 points, or 2.8%, to close at 32,977.21.
The S&P 500 SPX, -3.63% dropped 155.57 points, or 3.6%, to finish at 4,131.93, re-entering correction territory.
The NASDAQ Composite COMP, -4.17% shed 536.89 points, or 4.2%, to end at 12,334.64.
Ironically, on Thursday, the Dow rose 614.46 points, or 1.9%, while the S&P 500 gained 2.5% and the NASDAQ Composite jumped 3.1%. The Dow and S&P 500 marked their best daily percentage climbs since March 9, while the NASDAQ saw its best day since March 16th, according to Dow Jones Market Data.
For the week, the Dow dropped 2.5%, the S&P 500 slumped 3.3% and the tech-laden NASDAQ lost 3.9%. In April, the Dow fell 4.9%, the S&P 500 tumbled 8.8% and the NASDAQ plunged 13.3%.
SCM: Supply chain bottlenecks are still stinging corporate giants. With China locking down cities at the first trace of Covid, American companies whose products are made in Chinese factories aren’t able to fulfill orders. Apple said Thursday that it would face up to $8 billion in losses due to restrictions in Shanghai.
The Big Tech earnings boom is officially over, but some of the world’s most powerful and valuable companies are breaking off from the pack.
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According to MarketWatch, profit increases are no longer a given for Big Tech. Collectively, Alphabet Inc. GOOGL, +3.70%GOOG, +3.82%, Amazon.com Inc. AMZN, +4.65%, Apple Inc. AAPL, +4.52%, Meta Platforms Inc. FB, +17.59% and Microsoft Corp. MSFT, +2.26% saw profit fall more than 17% year-over-year in the first quarter in earnings reports delivered this week, as they lapped the end of a pandemic boom that brought record results. But only three of the five actually saw earnings decrease individually, as Amazon’s surprising loss swayed the collective results.
But, it wasn’t good for the company Teladoc, which is one of investor Cathie Wood’s biggest holdings. Teladoc plunged 40% on a gloomy forecast. The pandemic winner is now down nearly 90% from its high in February 2021.
The size effect in finance literature refers to the observation that smaller firms have higher returns than larger firms, on average over long horizons. It also describes the contribution that firm size has in explaining stock returns.
Markets: The NASDAQ stayed flat at its lowest level this year.Spotify shares sank to a record low. Facebook is having a rough go, but it’s not the only one. Netflix stock plunged nearly 70% this year after hitting a ceiling on subscriber growth. At one point, it was worth more than Disney; now, it’s not even half as valuable. Even Google is googling “ways to make more money.” Its parent company, Alphabet, reported a slowdown in growth last quarter because, like Facebook, YouTube’s also being been dinged by TikTok and Apple’s privacy changes: The video platform’s revenue came in more than $500 million below expectations.
Energy: Russia’s halted oil shipments to Poland and Bulgaria yesterday.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 809 points, or 2.4 percent today, as investors sold stock amidst concerns of coming recession.
The Dow faced a significant decline since trading opened. By the market’s close, it had reached one of its lowest closing values in the past year. Similar declines were observed on other market indices – including the S&P 500, which fell by 2.8 percent, and the NASDAQ Composite (comprising technology company stock), which lost 4 percent of its value.
The National Review and most experts ascribed the loss to stocks by big technology companies, whose increases in value have come to represent a sizeable portion of market indices. Alphabet, Apple, Microsoft, and Twitter all declined by several points. Each of these companies was due to present earnings reports after the close of trading, which investors did not expect to bode well.
Alphabet, in particular, announced slower sales growth and a drop in earnings from ad-revenue on Google and its other platforms. Netflix, which reported a decline in subscribers on Friday, had previously experienced a 30 percent decline in its stock price amounting to a loss of $54 billion.
Dogecoin jumped more than 17% Monday following several reports that Twitter is poised to accept Elon Musk’s $43 billion bid, with the potential for the two parties to finalize a deal as soon as Monday. The meme token DOGEUSD, -3.99% gained 14% over the past 24 hours, trading at around $0.15, according to CoinDesk data. Still, it is down about 80% from its all-time high in May 2021.
Bitcoin BTCUSD, 0.88% was trading 0.02% lower from 24 hours ago to around $39,407. Ether ETHUSD, 0.22% was trading at around $2,928, up 0.1%, according to CoinDesk data.
And, after Musk, chief executive at Tesla TSLA, -0.70%, made a bid on April 14 to buy the remainder of Twitter TWTR, +5.66% stock that he didn’t already own at $54.20 per share without saying how he would pay for it, the social media giant’s board had been expected to reject Musk’s offer, as it adopted a so-called “poison pill” plan. However, the company took a dramatic turn after Musk said last week he lined up $46.5 billion in financing, The Wall Street Journal reported. Deal later done!
According to MarketWatch, Dogecoin supporters are hoping that Musk, the long-time backer for the Shiba Inu-themed token, could boost its usage after he takes over the social media platform.
After last week’s sharp decline, the S&P is down 5.7% so far in April and is on track for its worst monthly drop since March 2020, when the spreading COVID-19 pandemic blasted stocks.
And, battered U.S. stocks are facing a potentially painful stretch in the weeks ahead as hawkish Federal Reserve policy, rising bond yields, geopolitical uncertainty and the corporate earnings season fuel investor unease. For example:
REPORTINGCOMPANIES:
Monday: Germany business climate; Earnings from PepsiCo and Whirlpool
Tuesday: US consumer confidence; Earnings from 3M, General Electric, JetBlue, UPS, Warner Bros. Discovery, Alphabet, General Motors, Mondelez, Microsoft and Visa
Wednesday: Earnings from Boeing, Harley-Davidson, Kraft Heinz, Spotify, Ford Motor, Mattel, Meta and PayPal
Thursday: Bank of Japan policy decision; US first quarter GDP; Earnings from Caterpillar, Altria, Domino’s Pizza, Mastercard, Twitter, Amazon, Apple, Intel, Roku and Robinhood
Friday: Europe first quarter GDP and inflation data; US personal income and spending data; PCE Price Index; Earnings from ExxonMobil and Chevron
One measure of investor anxiety, the CBOE Volatility Index, known as Wall Street’s fear gauge, on Friday notched its largest one-day gain in about five months to close at a five-week high of 28.21.
An event like the Russia-Ukraine war creates ripple effects throughout the financial markets, in sometimes surprising ways. In this episode of Brew Breakdown, they explain how geopolitics affect the global market and point out what you can look out for when it comes to your stock portfolio during times of uncertainty.
DEFINITION: Occurs when dividends are declared by a company’s board of directors, they are payable on a certain date (“payable date”) to shareholders recorded on the company’s books as of a stated earlier date (“record date”).
Purchasers of the stock on or after the record date are not entitled to receive the recently declared dividend, so the ex-dividend date is the number of days it takes to settle a trade before the record date (currently three business days). A stock’s price on its ex-dividend date appears in the newspaper with an X beside it.
What a week in the world’s financial markets? It is perfect timing for this ME-P.
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It is useful to look at stock market levels compared to where they’ve been over the past few months. When the S&P 500 is above its moving or rolling average of the prior 125 trading days, that’s a sign of positive momentum. But if the index is below this average, it shows investors are getting skittish.
The Fear & Greed Index uses slowing momentum as a signal for Fear and a growing momentum for Greed.
But, a few big stocks can skew returns for the market. So, it’s important to also know how many stocks are doing well versus those that are struggling.
US stocks plunged yesterday with the Dow Jones falling nearly 1,000 points as investors grappled with new comments from Fed Chair Jerome Powell that indicate bigger interest rate hikes ahead.
For the week, the Dow finished down 1.85%, the S&P 500 tumbled 2.7%, and the NASDAQ crashed 3.8%. The Dow Jones marked its fourth consecutive weekly decline, while the S&P 500 and NASDAQ 100 registered their third straight weekly drops.
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Despite the bearishness in the stock market, first-quarter corporate earnings continue to beat analyst estimates on both the top and bottom lines. According to data from Fundstrat, of the 95 companies that have reported so far, or 19% of the S&P 500, results are beating profit estimates by a median of 6%. Meanwhile, revenue estimates have been beating by a median of 3%.
Ukraine announced limits on bitcoin purchases Friday to protect against capital flight as Russia’s war on the country pushes into a third month. The National Bank of Ukraine is banning bitcoin purchases made with the hyrvnia and is capping purchases made with foreign currencies at $3,300 a month.
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China’s yuan was on track for its worst weekly drop since 2015 on Friday, as investors rushed back to the US. The offshore yuan, or renminbi, had fallen 2.4% over the week to 6.53 per dollar, according to Bloomberg data.
The S&P 500 dropped and erased earlier gains. The Dow Jones Industrial Average also turned lower. The NASDAQ fell more than 2% and extended losses when the tech-heavy index was weighed down by a slide in Netflix. Meanwhile, Tesla (TSLA) shares rose after the electric vehicle-maker handily exceeded expectations in its fiscal first-quarter results.
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Treasury bond yields climbed after Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell suggested the case for front-loading interest rate hikes with 50 basis-point increases in order to quickly address persistent inflationary pressures. San Francisco Federal Reserve President Mary Daly also suggested in an interview with Yahoo Finance that she would back a larger-than-typical 50 basis point interest rate hike following the Fed’s May meeting given current price pressures.
China: The nation’s securities regulator issued investor guidance for the country’s giant social security fund, just as the benchmark CSI 300 Index was heading toward the lowest level since June 2020.
DEFINITION: A blank check company is a development stage company that has no specific business plan or purpose or has indicated its business plan is to engage in a merger or acquisition with an unidentified company or companies, other entity, or person.
Markets: Yesterday was a tale of two markets. The Dow, which is home to blue-chip corporations like P&G, gained, while the NASDAQ, comprised of tech stocks, fell. Netflix is now the worst performing stock in the S&P this year.
Covid: The DOJ appealed a judge’s ruling that overturned a federal mask mandate for transportation. The move came at the suggestion of the CDC, which determined that people should still wear masks in indoor public transportation settings.
Homes: The median existing-home price in the US hit an all-time high of $375,300 in March, up 15% from the year before. With surging mortgage rates and higher home prices, the average borrower is paying ~38% more than they would have for the same home a year ago, according to Realtor.com.
There is no shortage of analysis for anyone interested in investing. A search for the term “stock market analysis” turned up 16 million hits on Google and well over 200,000 hits each on Bing, and Yahoo.
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The majority of stock market analysis can be lumped into three broad groups: fundamental, technical, and sentimental. Here’s a close look at SA.
Sentimental Analysis
Sentimental analysis attempts to measure the market in terms of the attitudes of investors. Sentimental analysis starts from the assumption that the majority of investors are wrong. In other words, that the stock market has the potential to disappoint when “masses of investors” believe prices are headed in a particular direction.
Sentiment analysts are often referred to as contrarians who look to invest against the majority view of the market.
For example, if the majority of professional market watchers expect a stock price to trend higher, sentiment analysts may look for prices to disappoint the majority and trend lower.
Which approach is best?
There is no clear answer to that question.
But it’s important to remember three things:
Past performance does not guarantee future results, actual results will vary, and the best approach may be to create a portfolio based on your time horizon, risk tolerance, and goals.
Keep in mind that the return and principal value of stock prices will fluctuate as market conditions change.
And shares, when sold, may be worth more or less than their original cost.
Conclusion
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DEBT: At least 40,000 borrowers will now qualify for immediate debt cancellation under the Public Service Loan Forgiveness (PSLF) Program. This program eliminates the debts of government and nonprofit workers, such as teachers, health care workers, and military members, after 10 years of qualifying loan payments.
MARKETS:
NASDAQ: 13,619.66+2.15%
S&P 500: 4,462.21+1.61%
Dow: 34,911.20+1.45%
10-Year Treasury: 2.941%+8.0 bps
Bitcoin: $41,313.47+1.03%
Carnival: $19.91+4.57%
Markets: In a flip of 2022’s investing trends, the only sector in the S&P to not increase yesterday was…energy. Travel companies posted strong gains after the federal mask mandate for transportation was scrapped by a judge.
The Roman philosopher, playwright, statesman and occasional satirist Lucius Annaeus Seneca wasn’t talking about the stock market when he wrote that “time discovers truth,” but he could have been. In the long run a stock price will reflect a company’s (true) intrinsic value. In the short run the pricing is basically random.
Here are two real-life examples:
Let’s say you had the smarts to buy Microsoft in November 1992. It would have been a brilliant decision in the long run — the software giant’s stock has gone up manyfold since. But nine months later, in August 1993, that call did not look so brilliant: Microsoft shares had declined 25 percent in less than a year. In fact, it would have taken you 18 months, until May 1994, for this purchase to break even. Eighteen months of dumbness?
In the early ’90s the PC industry was still in its infancy. Microsoft’s DOS and Windows operating systems were de facto standards. Outside of Macs and a tiny fraction of IBM computers, every computer came preinstalled with DOS and Windows. Microsoft had a pristine balance sheet and a brilliant co-founder and CEO who would turn mountains upside down to make sure the company succeeded. The above sentence is infested with hindsight — after all, that was almost 30 years ago. But Microsoft clearly had an incredible moat, which became wider with every new PC sold and every new software program written to run on Windows.
Here is another example. GoPro is a maker of video cameras used by surfers, skiers and other extreme sports enthusiasts. If you had bought the stock soon after it went public, in 2014, you would have paid $40 a share for a $5.5 billion–market-cap company earning about $100 million a year — a price-earnings ratio of about 55. Your impatience would, however, have been rewarded: The stock more than doubled in just a few short months, hitting $90.
Would it have been a good decision to buy GoPro? The company makes a great product — I own one. But GoPro has no moat. None. Most components that go into its cameras are commodities. There are no barriers to entry into the specialized video camera segment. Most important, there are no switching costs for consumers. Investors who bought GoPro after its IPO paid a huge premium for the promise of much higher earnings from a company that might or might not be around five years later.
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What is even more interesting is that some of those buyers were then selling to even bigger fools who bought at double the price a few months later. GoPro was a momentum stock that was riding a wave about to break. Fast-forward a year and GoPro sales are collapsing, so now the stock is trading in the low teens ($11.65 as of this writing).
These two examples bring us to the nontrivial topics of complex systems and nonlinearity. My favorite thinker, Nassim Taleb, wrote the following in his book Antifragile: Things That Gain from Disorder: “Complex systems are full of interdependencies — hard to detect — and nonlinear responses. ‘Nonlinear’ means that when you double the dose of, say, a medication, or when you double the number of employees in a factory, you don’t get twice the initial effect, but rather a lot more or a lot less.”
The stock market is a complex system where in the short term there are few if any interdependencies between decisions and outcomes. In the short run stock prices are driven by thousands of random variables. Stock market participants have different risk tolerances and emotional aptitudes, and diverse time horizons ranging from milliseconds (for high-speed traders) to years (for long-term investors).
Assessment
In other words, predicting where a stock price will be in a day, a month or even a year is not much different from prognosticating whether the ball on a roulette wheel will land on red or black. In the longer run, however, good decisions should pay off because fundamentals will shine through — just as was the case with buying Microsoft in 1992 and not buying GoPro in 2014. But in the short run there is no correlation between good decisions and results. None!
Whenever you look at your portfolio, think of the Microsoft and GoPro examples above. The performance of your stocks in the short run tells you absolutely nothing about what you own or about the quality of your decisions. You may own a portfolio of Microsofts, and its value is still going down because at this juncture the market doesn’t care about Microsofts. Or maybe you stuffed your retirement fund with overpriced fads that may not be around a year from now. But in the longer run, which always lies out there past the short run, time discovers truth, as Seneca said.
Conclusion
Your thoughts and comments on this ME-P are appreciated. Feel free to review our top-left column, and top-right sidebar materials, links, URLs and related websites, too. Then, subscribe to the ME-P. It is fast, free and secure.
Speaker: If you need a moderator or speaker for an upcoming event, Dr. David E. Marcinko; MBA – Publisher-in-Chief of the Medical Executive-Post – is available for seminar or speaking engagements.
Subscribe: MEDICAL EXECUTIVE POST for curated news, essays, opinions and analysis from the public health, economics, finance, marketing, IT, business and policy management ecosystem.
Markets: Stocks dipped to start off the week without many market-moving developments. Twitter’s use of a “poison pill” to prevent Elon Musk from taking over the company was a hit with investors, who sent shares soaring yesterday. The company’s stock is up more than 23% since Musk revealed he owned a 9.2% stake.
NASDAQ: 13,332.36-0.14%
S&P: 4,391.69-0.02%
Dow: 34,411.69
Commodities: Prices up. Corn hit a nine-year high in part due to the war in Ukraine, while US natural gas prices reached their highest level in 13 years ahead of an unusual April snowstorm hitting the Northeast. Natural gas prices have more than doubled so far this year.
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