AT YOUR SERVICE: Invite Dr. Marcinko to Your Next Event, Video Conference or Blog-Cast in 2021

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ABOUT | DAVID EDWARD MARCINKO

BY ANN MILLER RN CPHQ

THANK YOU

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Comprehensive Financial Planning Strategies for Doctors and Advisors: Best Practices from Leading Consultants and Certified Medical Planners™

MORE: https://www.routledge.com/Comprehensive-Financial-Planning-Strategies-for-Doctors-and-Advisors-Best/Marcinko-Hetico/p/book/9781482240283

What is CHROMETOPHOBIA?

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A great question to ponder during National Financial Planning Month!

About the “FEAR OF MONEY”

By Charles Patrick Davis, MD, PhD

Fear of money: An abnormal and persistent fear of money. Sufferers experience undue anxiety even though they realize their fear is irrational. They worry that they might mismanage money or that money might live up to its reputation as “the root of all evil.” Perhaps they remember well the ill fortune that befell the mythical King Midas. His wish that everything he touched be turned to gold was fulfilled, and even his food was transformed into gold.

The fear of money is termed chrometophobia or chrematophobia, from the Greek “chrimata” (money) and “phobos” (fear). The “chrome” in “chrometophobia” may also be related to the Greek word “chroma” (color) because of the brilliant colors of ancient coins — for example, gold, silver, bronze and copper.

CITE: https://www.r2library.com/Resource/Title/0826102549

YOUR COMMENTS ARE APPRECIATED.

Thank You

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Comprehensive Financial Planning Strategies for Doctors and Advisors: Best Practices from Leading Consultants and Certified Medical Planners™

FINANCIAL PLANNING: https://www.routledge.com/Comprehensive-Financial-Planning-Strategies-for-Doctors-and-Advisors-Best/Marcinko-Hetico/p/book/9781482240283

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Risk Management, Liability Insurance, and Asset Protection Strategies for Doctors and Advisors : Best Practices from Leading Consultants and Certified Medical Planners™ book cover

RISK MANAGEMENT: https://www.routledge.com/Risk-Management-Liability-Insurance-and-Asset-Protection-Strategies-for/Marcinko-Hetico/p/book/9781498725989

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PHYSICIAN FINANCIAL ADVISORS: https://medicalexecutivepost.com/2021/10/11/

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GE Update for Physicians and Investors

BY STEVE WINOKER

Hi David,

I hope this note finds you well. Here at GE, September was an important month for us. We concluded our annual strategy reviews with each business, complementing the quarterly operating reviews with a longer-term focus. I had the opportunity to participate in many of the review processes and came away impressed with our progress, leadership team, and the growth opportunities that lie ahead as we innovate for the future of flight, precision health, and energy transition.

In my last investor update, I shared the exciting news that GE announced an agreement to acquire BK Medical, and in the spirit of growth and innovation, I’d like to share a few more recent business highlights that illustrate how our teams are delivering for our customers:

  • At Aviation, Bamboo Airways signed a Memorandum of Understanding agreement to purchase GEnx engines for its Boeing 787-9 aircraft. This order of 10 firm and 20 options, valued at a list price of approximately $2 billion, will help the airline expand its transcontinental flight network. Dang Tat Thang, CEO of Bamboo Airways, said, “The selection of the GEnx engines for our Boeing 787-9 aircraft will help increase the operational efficiency and service quality of Bamboo Airways on Vietnam-U.S. nonstop flights as well as many potential international routes.”
  • Renewable Energy announced today that it received an order to supply Haliade-X turbines for Massachusetts’s Vineyard Wind 1, the first utility-scale offshore wind installation in the U.S. Additionally, our Haliade-X offshore wind prototype turbine recently became the first in the industry to operate at 14 MW, increasing our customers’ ability to produce more power from a single turbine.
  • Gas Power announced the delivery, installation, and commissioning of four TM2500 aeroderivative gas turbines in only 42 days to supplement renewable power generation for the State of California’s Department of Water Resources during peak demand season. GE’s TM2500s start and ramp up quickly in just minutes and will help enhance the reliability and sustainability of California’s grid.

See the source image

We’re excited about what the future holds, as our teams are highly focused on executing for our customers, leveraging lean to drive meaningful progress and innovating for a more sustainable world.

We look forward to sharing more on our 3Q’21 earnings call on Tuesday, October 26. As always, I welcome your feedback.

Best,
Steve

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Comprehensive Financial Planning Strategies for Doctors and Advisors: Best Practices from Leading Consultants and Certified Medical Planners™

MORE: https://www.routledge.com/Comprehensive-Financial-Planning-Strategies-for-Doctors-and-Advisors-Best/Marcinko-Hetico/p/book/9781482240283

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PODCAST: Warren Buffett’s Thoughts on Healthcare

BY ERIC BRICKER MD

CITE: https://www.r2library.com/Resource/Title/0826102549

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In Response to a Question Regarding the Ending of Haven Healthcare–the Joint Venture Among Berkshire Hathaway, JP Morgan Chase and Amazon to Improve Healthcare for their Employee Health Plan Members–Warren Buffett Made the Following Statement:

“Healthcare is the Tapeworm of the US Economy and the TAPEWORM WON.”

Additionally, Warren Buffett Goes on to Say that ‘Prestigious‘ People in the Community Run Hospital Boards and These People Are ‘Fairly Happy‘ with the Healthcare System the Way It Currently Is.

It is Likely that Warren Buffett Formed Some of This Opinion in Speaking About Healthcare with the Vice Chairman of Berkshire Hathaway, Charlie Munger, and Berkshire Board Member and Famous CEO, Tom Murphy.

Charlie Munger Has Served on the Board of a Los Angeles Hospital for 31 Years and Tom Murphy Currently Serves on the NYU Langone Hospital System Board of Directors.

The Support of the Status Quo by ‘Prestigious,’ ‘Fairly Happy’ Hospital Board Members Cannot Be Understated… It Blocks Change and Warren Buffett Appears to Think Similarly.

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YOUR COMMENTS ARE APPRECIATED.

Thank You

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ANNUAL FINANCIAL STATEMENT REPORTS: Health Insurance Companies

FOR PHYSICIAN INVESTORS

By David Belk MD

Health Insurance Company Financial Index

Below is a listing of the Nine largest for-profit health insurance Companies. The Annual financial statements are linked to the year for each Company and a four page summary report is linked to the name of the health insurance company at the top of the listing.

CITE: https://www.r2library.com/Resource/Title/0826102549

The relevant pages in each financial statement I used to prepare my summaries are listed next to each year’s statement. Aetna and Coventry’s summaries are combined because they merged in 2012. Health Net also Merged with Centene in 2016 leaving only seven major health insurance companies.

A composite summary for the data for all eight companies is here

Composite Data Table

Click on the name of the health insurance company to open the accordion and view the financial statements.

LINK: https://truecostofhealthcare.org/health-insurance-financial-index/

YOUR COMMENTS ARE APPRECIATED.

Thank You

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PODCAST: How Health Care Can Win by Adapting to Changes in Consumer Behavior

LESSONS FROM THE RETAIL SECTOR

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Discover how ProMedica uses customer feedback and a digital-first approach to consumers to achieve stellar results across more than 400 facilities in 28 states.

PODCAST: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=861em_pJfVM&t=3070s

YOUR THOUGHTS AND COMMENTS ARE APPRECIATED.

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Thank You

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Common Entrepreneurial Mistakes

BY JONATHAN MASE R.N.

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Being an entrepreneur is not necessarily easy, and many people that try to become entrepreneurs wind up failing. It’s important to recognize the risk of failure before you decide to walk down this path. Being an entrepreneur is very rewarding, and you can find success if you can do things right.

Keep reading to learn about common entrepreneurial mistakes that you can avoid to give yourself a better chance of realizing your entrepreneurial goals. 

READ: https://jonathanmase.wordpress.com/2021/08/06/common-entrepreneurial-mistakes/

Your comments are appreciated.

THANK YOU

MD Entrepreneurs: https://medicalexecutivepost.com/2021/07/29/minnovation-for-physician-entrepreneurs/

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PODCAST: Lessons for [physician] Investors: The Trial of Theranos Founder ELIZABETH HOLMES

By Bertalan Meskó, MD PhD

Wofür R&D Jahre benötigt, braucht künstliche Intelligenz wenige Minuten“

Elizabeth Holmes has no idea how much damage she has done with Theranos. As I often wrote, for digital technologies to gain ground and become part of our everyday lives, we need not only technological solutions but a cultural paradigm shift. Holmes rolled a massive rock in front of it.

Similarly, Facebook’s data privacy practices do not increase people’s confidence in the company’s products. All the scandals that have surrounded the social network could backfire when Facebook wants to step into healthcare – and this is exactly what we wrote about in our latest article, Is There A Place For Facebook In Healthcare? In it, we looked at what Facebook currently does in medicine and evaluated whether those are viable ways to follow in the future.

Take care,
Berci
Bertalan Meskó, MD PhD
The Medical Futurist

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MORE: https://www.cnbc.com/2021/09/10/the-lessons-for-investors-from-the-trial-of-theranos-founder-elizabeth-holmes.html?utm_source=The+Medical+Futurist+Newsletter&utm_campaign=f5b0ff1b6b-EMAIL_CAMPAIGN_2021_9_14&utm_medium=email&utm_term=0_efd6a3cd08-f5b0ff1b6b-399696053&mc_cid=f5b0ff1b6b&mc_eid=40fee31c25

YOUR COMMENTS ARE APPRECIATED.

Thank You

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PODCAST: The State of Mental Health

IN THE USA

By Eric Bricker MD

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YOUR COMMENTS AND THOUGHTS ARE APPRECIATED.

MORE: https://medicalexecutivepost.com/2021/07/28/mental-health-entrepreneurial-start-up/

Thank You

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PODCAST: Confessions of a Hospital Chief Financial Officer

HOSPITAL FINANCES REVEALED

By Eric Bricker MD

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CITE: https://www.r2library.com/Resource/Title/0826102549

YOUR THOUGHTS AND COMMENTS ARE APPRECIATED

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BUSINESS PLAN CONSTRUCTION: For Health Industry Modernity

FOR MEDICAL AND HEALTHCARE ENTREPRENEURS AND INNOVATORS

By Dr. David Edward Marcinko MBA MEd CMP®

I was asked by business schools and medical colleagues – and their bankers, CPAs and advisors – to speak about this topic several times last year before the pandemic.

Now, with the specter of M-4-A etc; it certainly is a vital concern to all young entrepreneurs, doctors & medical professionals whether live, audio recorded or in podcast form. And so, here is a written transcript of a recent presentation for your review.

Now, with the specter of tele-health, tele-medicine, M-4-A etc; it certainly is a vital concern to all young doctors & medical professionals whether live, audio recorded or in podcast form. And so, here is a written transcript of a recent presentation for your review.

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New Product Business Plan Sample [2021 Updated] | OGScapital

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READ: https://healthcarefinancials.files.wordpress.com/2017/08/mba-business-plan-capstone-outline.pdf

YOUR THOUGHTS ARE APPRECIATED.

SECOND OPINIONS: https://medicalexecutivepost.com/schedule-a-consultation/

INVITE DR. MARCINKO: https://medicalexecutivepost.com/dr-david-marcinkos-bookings/

Thank You

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Professor V. Entrepreneur

Teaching / Educating

Bill Hennessey, M.D.

CEO at Pratter, Inc.

As a teacher educating is your job. It’s what you enjoy. There’s a fairly lax time schedule and resources are already built in the equation. Little accountability because the ultimate burden and measure of success is placed on the student to pass a test. If they don’t do well, it’s the student not directly the teacher who pays the price.

Now, I work with first year students who don’t know what a red blood cell looks like (biconcave disc, you thought I forgot, didn’t you) all the way to a chief resident who can probably do some surgeries better than me. It’s my job to take that first year student and turn them into a chief resident.

As an entrepreneur with limited resources, time, and energy, you don’t have the luxury to continuously teach, develop, and convince. You need people who simply get it especially in strategic positions. You don’t have the luxury of time or resources. You also are directly accountable if they don’t understand because you have a burn rate that probably just got worse. So how much “oxygen” do you allocate when trying to build your team?

Different story for Apple, Boeing and others that can create academies and educational tracks to teach and develop internally.

ASSESSMENT: Your thoughts are appreciated

Product Details

ENTREPRENEURSHIP Rising Again!

Try (or learn about) Entrepreneurship

BY DR. DAVID EDWARD MARCINKO MBA CMP®

One of the greatest things about the virtual economy is the expanded opportunity for people to branch out on their own and create something using their own expertise. Related to this is the growing societal desire to have more free time and a more balanced, efficient life overall. 

In fact, years ago when I was in business school, I learned that during a recession when jobs were sparse – folks would either go back to school to re-engineer and re-educate OR start their own business.

Today – If the pandemic taught us anything, it’s that we need to be able to pivot when circumstances call for it. In the years ahead, there will be a premium on flexibility, portability, and improvisation; knowing how to earn income outside the traditional employer-employee relationship will continue to be an especially valuable skill. 

entrepreneur

ASSESSMENT: So, if you are a physician, nurse, medical professional or financial advisor in the healthcare space, think about what you’re naturally good at (or at least interested in), and determine if there’s an opportunity to monetize it in some way on your own. Your career might thank you for it!

Your thoughts and comments are appreciated.

http://www.CERTIFIEDMEDICALPLANNER.org

CMP logo

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INVITATIONS: https://medicalexecutivepost.com/dr-david-marcinkos-bookings/

CONTACT: Ann Miller RN MHA

MarcinkoAdvisors@msn.com

Ph: 770-448-0769

Second Opinions: https://medicalexecutivepost.com/schedule-a-consultation/

THANK YOU

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PODCAST: Private Equity Firms Are Making Partial Purchases of Physician Practices.

Older Doctors Sell Out to Private Equity

Private Equity Firms Are Making Partial Purchases of Physician Practices

BY ERIC BRICKER MD

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The Deals Are Frequently Structured as Follows:

–The Private Equity Firm Offers an Up Front Lump Sum of Money and Administrative Services Such as Billing and Collections for the Practice.

–In Return, the Doctors in the Practice Agree to Have 30-40% of All Future Revenue Go to the Private Equity Firm.

The Up Front Lump Sum Can Be Equal to as Much as 10 – 20 Years of Income for a Physician.

The Older Doctors in the Practice Who Are Usually the Partners Frequently Take This Deal, Resulting in the Younger Partners Making Less Take-Home Pay.

Implication for Employers:

Private Equity Firms Create Larger Group Practices to Have Better Negotiating Leverage with Commercial Insurance Carriers and Obtain Higher Fee-for-Service Reimbursement.

Overall Healthcare Costs for Physician Services Go Up, While the Take-Home Pay for Doctors Goes Down… and the Private Equity Firm Keeps the Difference.

NOTE: The Older Doctors Who Are Paid the Lump Sum Are Still Required to Stay at the Practice for a Certain Number of Years After the Transaction.

YOUR THOUGHTS AND COMMENTS ARE APPRECIATED

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DIY Textbooks: https://medicalexecutivepost.com/2021/04/29/why-are-certified-medical-planner-textbooks-so-darn-popular/

THANK YOU

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ON THE ROAD AGAIN: Public Speaking, Opining and Assigning

Dr. David Edward Marcinko is Speaking Up

Dr. David Edward Marcinko MBA CMP® enjoys personal coaching and public speaking and gives as many talks each year as possible, at a variety of medical society and financial services conferences around the country and world.

These have included lectures and visiting professorships at major academic centers, keynote lectures for hospitals, economic seminars and health systems, keynote lectures at city and statewide financial coalitions, and annual keynote lectures for a variety of internal yearly meetings.

His talks tend to be engaging, iconoclastic, and humorous. His most popular presentations include a diverse variety of topics and typically include those in all iMBA, Inc’s textbooks, handbooks, white-papers and most topics covered on this blog.

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Recognizing the Differences between Healthcare and Other ...

INVITATIONS: https://medicalexecutivepost.com/dr-david-marcinkos-bookings/

CONTACT: Ann Miller RN MHA

MarcinkoAdvisors@msn.com

Ph: 770-448-0769

Second Opinions: https://medicalexecutivepost.com/schedule-a-consultation/

DIY Textbooks: https://medicalexecutivepost.com/2021/04/29/why-are-certified-medical-planner-textbooks-so-darn-popular/

THANK YOU

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INFLATION Is Here!

But for How Long?

See the source image

Vitaliy N. Katsenelson, CFA

[CEO & Chief Investment Officer]

READERS

DEFINITION: In economics, inflation (or less frequently, price inflation) is a general rise in the price level of an economy over a period of time. When the general price level rises, each unit of currency buys fewer goods and services; consequently, inflation reflects a reduction in the purchasing power per unit of money – a loss of real value in the medium of exchange and unit of account within the economy. The opposite of inflation is deflation, a sustained decrease in the general price level of goods and services. The common measure of inflation is the inflation rate, the annualized percentage change in a general price index, usually the consumer price index, over time.

CITATION: https://www.r2library.com/Resource/Title/0826102549

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DEAR READERS

This essay is going to be long.
I blame inflation, be it transitory or not, for inflating its length. 

The number one question I am asked by clients, friends, readers, and random strangers is, are we going to have inflation? 

I think about inflation on three timelines: short, medium, and long-term

The pandemic disrupted a well-tuned but perhaps overly optimized global economy and time-shifted the production and consumption of various goods. For instance, in the early days of the pandemic automakers cut their orders for semiconductors. As orders for new cars have come rolling back, it is taking time for semiconductor manufacturers, who, like the rest of the economy, run with little slack and inventory, to produce enough chips to keep up with demand. A $20 device the size of a quarter that goes into a $40,000 car may have caused a significant decline in the production of cars and thus higher prices for new and used cars. (Or, as I explained to my mother-in-law, all the microchips that used to go into cars went into a new COVID vaccine, so now Bill Gates can track our whereabouts.)

Here is another example. The increase in new home construction and spike in remodeling drove demand for lumber while social distancing at sawmills reduced lumber production – lumber prices spiked 300%. Costlier lumber added $36,000 to the construction cost of a house, and the median price of a new house in the US is now about $350,000.

The semiconductor shortage will get resolved by 2022, car production will come back to normal, and supply and demand in the car market will return to the pre-pandemic equilibrium. High prices in commodities are cured by high prices. High lumber prices will incentivize lumber mills to run triple shifts. Increased supply will meet demand, and lumber prices will settle at the pre-pandemic level in a relatively short period of time. That is the beauty of capitalism! 

Most high prices caused by the time-shift in demand and supply fall into the short-term basket, but not all. It takes a considerable amount of time to increase production of industrial commodities that are deep in the ground – oil, for instance. Low oil prices preceding the pandemic were already coiling the spring under oil prices, and COVID coiled it further. It will take a few years and increased production for high oil prices to cure high oil prices. Oil prices may also stay high because of the weaker dollar, but we’ll come back to that.

Federal Reserve officials have told us repeatedly they are not worried about inflation; they believe it is transitory, for the reasons I described above. We are a bit less dismissive of inflation, and the two factors that worry us the most in the longer term are labor costs and interest rates. 

Let’s start with labor costs 

During a garden-variety recession, companies discover that their productive capacity exceeds demand. To reduce current and future output they lay off workers and cut capital spending on equipment and inventory. The social safety net (unemployment benefits) kicks in, but not enough to fully offset the loss of consumer income; thus demand for goods is further reduced, worsening the economic slowdown. Through millions of selfish transactions (microeconomics), the supply of goods and services readjusts to a new (lower) demand level. At some point this readjustment goes too far, demand outstrips supply, and the economy starts growing again.

This pandemic was not a garden-variety recession 

The government manually turned the switch of the economy to the “off” position. Economic output collapsed. The government sent checks to anyone with a checking account, even to those who still had jobs, putting trillions of dollars into consumer pockets. Though output of the economy was reduced, demand was not. It mostly shifted between different sectors within the economy (home improvement was substituted for travel spending). Unlike in a garden-variety recession, despite the decline in economic activity (we produced fewer widgets), our consumption has remained virtually unchanged. Today we have too much money chasing too few goods– that is what inflation is. This will get resolved, too, as our economic activity comes back to normal.

But …

Today, though the CDC says it is safe to be inside or outside without masks, the government is still paying people not to work. Companies have plenty of jobs open, but they cannot fill them. Many people have to make a tough choice between watching TV while receiving a paycheck from big-hearted Uncle Sam and working. Zero judgement here on my part – if I was not in love with what I do and had to choose between stacking boxes in Amazon’s warehouse or watching Amazon Prime while collecting a paycheck from a kind uncle, I’d be watching Sopranos for the third time. 

To entice people to put down the TV remote and get off the couch, employers are raising wages. For instance, Amazon has already increased minimum pay from $15 to $17 per hour. Bank of America announced that they’ll be raising the minimum wage in their branches from $20 to $25 over the next few years. The Biden administration may not need to waste political capital passing a Federal minimum wage increase; the distorted labor market did it for them. 

These higher wages don’t just impact new employees, they help existing employees get a pay boost, too. Labor is by far the biggest expense item in the economy. This expense matters exponentially more from the perspective of the total economy than lumber prices do. We are going to start seeing higher labor costs gradually make their way into higher prices for the goods and services around us, from the cost of tomatoes in the grocery store to the cost of haircuts.

Only investors and economists look at higher wages as a bad thing. These increases will boost the (nominal) earnings of workers; however, higher prices of everything around us will negate (at least) some of the purchasing power. 

Wages, unlike timber prices, rarely decline. It is hard to tell someone “I now value you less.” Employers usually just tell you they need less of your valuable time (they cut your hours) or they don’t need you at all (they lay you off and replace you with a machine or cheap overseas labor). It seems that we are likely going to see a one-time reset to higher wages across lower-paying jobs. However, once the government stops paying people not to work, the labor market should normalize; and inflation caused by labor disbalance should come back to normal, though increased higher wages will stick around.

There is another trend that may prove to be inflationary in the long-term: de-globalization.  Even before the pandemic the US set plans to bring manufacturing of semiconductors, an industry deemed strategic to its national interests, to its shores. Taiwan Semiconductor and Samsung are going to be spending tens of billions of dollars on factories in Arizona.  

The pandemic exposed the weaknesses inherent in just-in-time manufacturing but also in over reliance on the kindness of other countries to manufacture basic necessities such as masks or chemicals that are used to make pharmaceuticals.  Companies will likely carry more inventory going forward, at least for a while.  But more importantly more manufacturing will likely come back to the US. This will bring jobs and a lot of automation, but also higher wages and thus higher costs.  

If globalization was deflationary, de-globalization is inflationary  

We are not drawing straight-line conclusions, just yet. A lot of manufacturing may just move away from China to other low-cost countries that we consider friendlier to the US; India and Mexico come to mind.  

And then we have the elephant in the economy – interest rates, the price of money. It’s the most important variable in determining asset prices in the short term and especially in the long term. The government intervention in the economy came at a significant cost, which we have not felt yet: a much bigger government debt pile. This pile will be there long after we have forgotten how to spell social distancing
 
The US government’s debt increased by $5 trillion to $28 trillion in 2020 – more than a 20% increase in one year! At the same time the laws of economics went into hibernation: The more we borrow the less we pay for our debt, because ultra-low interest rates dropped our interest payments from $570 billion in 2019 to $520 billion in 2020. 

That is what we’ve learned over the last decade and especially in 2020: The more we borrow the lower interest we pay. I should ask for my money back for all the economics classes I took in undergraduate and graduate school.

This broken link between higher borrowing and near-zero interest rates is very dangerous. It tells our government that how much you borrow doesn’t matter; you can spend (after you borrow) as much as your Republican or Democratic heart desires. 

However, by looking superficially at the numbers I cited above we may learn the wrong lesson. If we dig a bit deeper, we learn a very different lesson: Foreigners don’t want our (not so) fine debt. It seems that foreign investors have wised up: They were not the incremental buyer of our new debt – most of the debt the US issued in 2020 was bought by Uncle Fed. Try explaining to your kids that our government issued debt and then bought it itself. Good luck.

Let me make this point clear: Neither the Federal Reserve, nor I, nor a well-spoken guest on your business TV knows where interest rates are going to be (the total global bond market is bigger even than the mighty Fed, and it may not be able to control over interest rates in the long run). But the impact of what higher interest rates will do the economy increases with every trillion we borrow. There is no end in sight for this borrowing and spending spree (by the time you read this, the administration will have announced another trillion in spending). 

Let me provide you some context about our financial situation 


The US gross domestic product (GDP) – the revenue of the economy – is about $22 trillion, and in 2019 our tax receipts were about $3.5 trillion. Historically, the-10 year Treasury has yielded about 2% more than inflation. Consumer prices (inflation) went up 4.2% in April. Today the 10-year Treasury pays 1.6%; thus the World Reserve Currency debt has a negative 2.6% real interest rate (1.6% – 4.2%). 

These negative real (after inflation) interest rates are unlikely to persist while we are issuing trillions of dollars of debt. But let’s assume that half of the increase is temporary and that 2% inflation is here to stay. Let’s imagine the unimaginable. Our interest rate goes up to the historical norm to cover the loss of purchasing power caused by inflation. Thus it goes to 4% (2 percentage points above 2% “normal” inflation). In this scenario our federal interest payments will be over $1.2 trillion (I am using vaguely right math here). A third of our tax revenue will have to go to pay for interest expense. Something has to give. It is not going to be education or defense, which are about $230 billion and $730 billion, respectively. You don’t want to be known as a politician who cut education; this doesn’t play well in the opponent’s TV ads. The world is less safe today than at any time since the end of the Cold War, so our defense spending is not going down (this is why we own a lot of defense stocks). 

The government that borrows in its own currency and owns a printing press will not default on its debt, at least not in the traditional sense. It defaults a little bit every year through inflation by printing more and more money. Unfortunately, the average maturity of our debt is about five years, so it would not take long for higher interest expense to show up in budget deficits. 

Money printing will bring higher inflation and thus even higher interest rates

If things were not confusing enough, higher interest rates are also deflationary 

We’ve observed significant inflation in asset prices over the last decade; however, until this pandemic we had seen nothing yet. Median home prices are up 17% in one year. The wild, speculative animal spirits reached a new high during the pandemic. Flush with cash (thanks to kind Uncle Sam), bored due to social distancing, and borrowing on the margin (margin debt is hitting a 20-year high), consumers rushed into the stock market, turning this respectable institution (okay, wishful thinking on my part) into a giant casino. 

It is becoming more difficult to find undervalued assets. I am a value investor, and believe me, I’ve looked (we are finding some, but the pickings are spare). The stock market is very expensive. Its expensiveness is setting 100-year records. Except, bonds are even more expensive than stocks – they have negative real (after inflation) yields.

But stocks, bonds, and homes were not enough – too slow, too little octane for restless investors and speculators. Enter cryptocurrencies (note: plural). Cryptocurrencies make Pets.com of the 1999 era look like a conservative investment (at least it had a cute sock commercial). There are hundreds if not thousands of crypto “currencies,” with dozens created every week. (I use the word currency loosely here. Just because someone gives bits and bytes a name, and you can buy these bits and bytes, doesn’t automatically make what you’re buying a currency.)

“The definition of a bubble is when people are making money all out of proportion to their intelligence or work ethic.”

By Mike Burry MD
[The Big Short]

I keep reading articles about millennials borrowing money from their relatives and pouring their life savings into cryptocurrencies with weird names, and then suddenly turning into millionaires after a celebrity CEO tweets about the thing he bought. Much ink is spilled to celebrate these gamblers, praising them for their ingenious insight, thus creating ever more FOMO (fear of missing out) and spreading the bad behavior.

Unfortunately, at some point they will be writing about destitute millennials who lost all of their and their friends’ life savings, but this is down the road. Part of me wants to call this a crypto craziness a bubble, but then I think, Why that’s disrespectful to the word bubble, because something has to be worth something to be overpriced. At least tulips were worth something and had a social utility. (I’ll come back to this topic later in the letter).

But ….

When interest rates are zero or negative, stocks of sci-fi-novel companies that are going to colonize and build five-star hotels on Mars are priced as if El Al (the Israeli airline) has regular flights to the Red Planet every day of the week except on Friday (it doesn’t fly on Shabbos). Rising interest rates are good defusers of mass delusions and rich imaginations. 

In the real economy, higher interest rates will reduce the affordability of financed assets. They will increase the cost of capital for businesses, which will be making fewer capital investments. No more 2% car loans or 3% business loans. Most importantly, higher rates will impact the housing market. 

Up to this point, declining interest rates increased the affordability of housing, though in a perverse way: The same house with white picket fences (and a dog) is selling for 17% more in 2021 than a year before, but due to lower interest rates the mortgage payments have remained the same. Consumers are paying more for the same asset, but interest rates have made it affordable.

At higher interest rates housing prices will not be making new highs but revisiting past lows. Declining housing prices reduce consumers’ willingness to improve their depreciating dwellings (fewer trips to Home Depot). Many homeowners will be upside down in their homes, mortgage defaults will go up… well, we’ve seen this movie before in the not-so-distant past. Higher interest rates will expose a lot of weaknesses that have been built up in the economy. We’ll be finding fault lines in unexpected places – low interest has covered up a lot of financial sins.

And then there is the US dollar, the world’s reserve currency. Power corrupts, but the unchallenged and unconstrained the power of being the world’s reserve currency corrupts absolutely. It seems that our multitrillion-dollar budget deficits will not suddenly stop in 2021. With every trillion dollars we borrow, we chip away at our reserve currency status (I’ve written about this topic in great detail, and things have only gotten worse since). And as I mentioned above, we’ve already seen signs that foreigners are not willing to support our debt addiction. 

A question comes to mind.
Am I yelling fire where there is not even any smoke? 

Higher interest rates is anything but a consensus view today. Anyone who called for higher rates during the last 20 years is either in hiding or has lost his voice, or both. However, before you dismiss the possibility of higher rates as an unlikely plot for a sci-fi novel, think about this. 

In the fifty years preceding 2008, housing prices never declined nationwide. This became an unquestioned assumption by the Federal Reserve and all financial players. Trillions of dollars of mortgage securities were priced as if “Housing shall never decline nationwide” was the Eleventh Commandment, delivered at Temple Sinai to Goldman Sachs. Or, if you were not a religious type, it was a mathematical axiom or an immutable law of physics. The Great Financial Crisis showed us that confusing the lack of recent observations of a phenomenon for an axiom may have grave consequences. 

Today everyone (consumers, corporations, and especially governments) behaves as if interest rates can only decline, but what if… I know it’s unimaginable, but what if ballooning government debt leads to higher interest rates? And higher interest rates lead to even more runaway money printing and inflation? 

This will bring a weaker dollar 

A weaker US dollar will only increase inflation, as import prices for goods will go up in dollar terms. This will create an additional tailwind for commodity prices. 

If your head isn’t spinning from reading this, I promise mine is from having written it. 

To sum up: A lot of the inflation caused by supply chain disruption that we see today is temporary. But some of it, particularly in industrial commodities, will linger longer, for at least a few years. Wages will be inflationary in the short-term and will reset prices higher, but once the government stops paying people not to work, wage growth should slow down. Finally, in the long term a true inflationary risk comes from growing government borrowing and budget deficits, which will bring higher interest rates and a weaker dollar with them, which will only make inflation worse and will also deflate away a lot of assets.

THE END

Your thoughts are appreciated.

THANK YOU

***
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Invite Professor Marcinko to Your Next Seminar or Event

See You Soon

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SPONSOR: http://www.CertifiedMedicalPlanner.org

Colleagues know that I enjoy personal coaching and public speaking and give as many talks each year as possible, at a variety of medical society and financial services conferences around the country and world. All in a Corona safe environment.

Avatar of Dr. Marcinko Speaking as MSL

These include lectures and visiting professorships at major academic centers, keynote lectures for hospitals, economic seminars and health systems, end-note lectures at city and statewide financial coalitions, and annual lectures for a variety of internal yearly meetings.

LIVE or PODCAST enabled, as well.

Topics Link: imba-inc-firm-services

Teleconference: https://medicalexecutivepost.com/2020/10/14/me-marcinko-and-my-avatar/

My Fond Farewell to Tuskegee University

And so, we appreciate your consideration.

Invite Dr. Marcinko

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[ME-P Executive-Director]

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THANK YOU

***

PODCAST: How are Hospitals Doing after the Pandemic?

The Pandemic is Ending?

How Are Hospitals Doing?

Interview with Brian Peters 

Rich Helppie brings back Brian Peters, the CEO of The Michigan Health and Hospital Association to talk about the current state of Covid-19; what we may have gotten right, what we may have gotten wrong and how to move forward.

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EDITOR’S NOTE: I first met Rich in B-school, when I was a student, back in the day. He was the Founder and CEO of Superior Consultant Holdings Corp. Rich graciously wrote the Foreword to one of my first textbooks on financial planning for physicians and healthcare professionals. Today, Rich is a successful entrepreneur in the technology, health and finance space.
-Dr. David E. Marcinko MBA CMP®

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PODCAST: https://richardhelppie.com/brian-peters/

ASSESSMENT: Your thoughts are appreciated.

THANK YOU

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OVER HEARD IN THE FINANCIAL ADVISOR’S LOUNGE

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“TAKE THE FIDUCIARY PLEDGE”

FINANCIAL ADVISORS LOUNGE AT iMBA, Inc.

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SPONSORED: http://www.CertifiedMedicalPlanner.org

DEFINITION: A fiduciary is a person who holds a legal or ethical relationship of trust with one or more other parties (person or group of persons).

Typically, a fiduciary prudently takes care of money or other assets for another person. One party, for example, a corporate trust company or the trust department of a bank, acts in a fiduciary capacity to another party, who, for example, has entrusted funds to the fiduciary for safekeeping or investment. Likewise, financial advisers, financial planners, and asset managers, including managers of pension plans, endowments, and other tax-exempt assets, are considered fiduciaries under applicable statutes and laws.

In a fiduciary relationship, one person, in a position of vulnerability, justifiably vests confidence, good faith, reliance, and trust in another whose aid, advice, or protection is sought in some matter. In such a relation good conscience requires the fiduciary to act at all times for the sole benefit and interest of the one who trusts.

CITATION: https://www.r2library.com/Resource/Title/0826102549

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[Fiduciary Pledge]*

I, the undersigned, ___________________________ (“financial advisor”), pledge to always put the best interests of _______________________________ (“client”) first, no matter what.

As such, I will disclose in writing the following material facts and any conflicts of interest (actual and/or perceived) that may arise in our business relationship:

  • All commission, fees, loads, and expenses, in advance, client will pay as a result of my advice and recommendations;
  • All commission and commissions I receive as a result of my advice and recommendations;
  • The maximum fee discount allowed by my firm and the largest fee discount I give to other customers;
  • The fee discount client is receiving;
  • Any recruitment bonuses and other recruitment compensation I have or will receive from my firm;
  • Fees I paid to others for the referral of client to me;
  • Fees I have or will receive for referring client to any third-parties; and
  • Any other financial conflicts of interest that could reasonably compromise the impartiality of my advice and recommendations.

Jeff Kuest MBA CFA CFP®

[CounterPoint Capital Advisors]

*© 2011-2015. All rights reserved. Courtesy permission with personal communication from Jeff Kuest, MBA, CFA, CFP®

ASSESSMENT: Your thoughts are appreciated.

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***

PE Ratio versus PEG Ratio

PE versus PEG

By staff reporters

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“Medical Management and Health Economics Education for Financial Advisors”

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Your thoughts and comments are appreciated.

BUSINESS, FINANCE, INVESTING AND INSURANCE TEXTS FOR DOCTORS:

1 – https://lnkd.in/ebWtzGg

2 – https://lnkd.in/ezkQMfR

3 – https://lnkd.in/ewJPTJs

THANK YOU

***

MID-YEAR FINANCIAL ROUND-UP: 2020

MID-YEAR ROUND-UP

DR. DAVID EDWARD MARCINKO MBA MEd CMP® 

STOCKS: A global stock market crash on March 12 set the worst single-day decline for stocks since 1987. But in Q2, major indexes clawed their way back on the promise of economic reopenings. Filled to the brim with tech companies, the Nasdaq has distanced itself from the Dow and the S&P.

FED: The Fed slashed interest rates in March to stem the economic bleeding, and in early June said it would hold rates near zero through 2022.

OIL: In late April, oil prices crashed below -$37 a barrel as plummeting demand from lockdowns left traders with nowhere to put their oil. Following an agreement by OPEC+ to reduce supply by 9.7 million barrels a day, prices are slowly rebounding back to March’s highs.

MORE: https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/markets/wall-street-is-wrapping-up-its-best-quarter-in-decades/ar-BB166FUU?li=BBnbfcN

“Medical Management and Health Economics Education for Financial Advisors”

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Your thoughts and comments are appreciated.

BUSINESS, FINANCE, INVESTING AND INSURANCE TEXTS FOR DOCTORS:

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2 – https://lnkd.in/ezkQMfR

3 – https://lnkd.in/ewJPTJs

THANK YOU

***

On Immigrant Entrepreneurs and the USA

Shape the Start-Up Economy

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Another CERTIFIED MEDICAL PLANNER® “In The News”

ANOTHER CERTIFIED MEDICAL PLANNER® “IN THE NEWS”

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“Informed Voice and Next-Gen of Physician Fiduciary Advisors”

AMAURY CIFUENTES CFP® CMP®

“The extensive experience of our professional team allows us to implement a rigorous process to identify ‘Best in Class’ opportunities in our focus areas. We assist in providing capital, innovative solutions and strategic expertise to our portfolio throughout the investment cycle.”

LINK: https://lnkd.in/eBf-4vY

AMAURY has 30 years of experience in banking and finance; financial planning and investments with an emphasis on business lending, real estate and private investments. He is a licensed CERTIFIED MEDICAL PLANNER® giving him an enhanced knowledge of the medical industry’s specific needs.

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2 – https://lnkd.in/ezkQMfR

3 – https://lnkd.in/ewJPTJs

Risk Management, Liability Insurance, and Asset Protection Strategies for Doctors and Advisors: Best Practices from Leading Consultants and Certified Medical Planners™8Comprehensive Financial Planning Strategies for Doctors and Advisors: Best Practices from Leading Consultants and Certified Medical Planners™

THANK YOU

Fifty Shades of Warren Buffet -OR- New Year in Omaha

A POD-Cast

By Vitaliy Katsenelson CFA

50 Shades of Warren Buffet or Next Year In Omaha

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Risk Management, Liability Insurance, and Asset Protection Strategies for Doctors and Advisors: Best Practices from Leading Consultants and Certified Medical Planners™8Comprehensive Financial Planning Strategies for Doctors and Advisors: Best Practices from Leading Consultants and Certified Medical Planners™

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Some Value-Focused Investing Interviews and Podcasts

By Vitaliy Katsenelson CFA

Dear ME-P Readers,

You might want to listen to some great interviews by Roben on investment topics (his shows cover a wide variety of themes).

  1. An interview with an acquaintance of mine, Saurabh Madaan, who went from working for Google to Markel (which is often called the “Baby Berkshire Hathaway”).
  2. Speaking of Markel, here Roben interviews Tom Gayner, Markel’s CIO. I have had the privilege of sharing a stage with Tom once a year for the last seven years in Omaha at the YPO event.
  3. Here Roben interviews my friend Jim Chanos –brilliant short seller and incredible human being. 

I am just scratching the surface here. You can listen to hundreds of other shows with Roben here, or look for Full Disclosure with Roben Farzad on your podcast app – just be careful, they are very addicting. 

stocks

Conclusion

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Subscribe: MEDICAL EXECUTIVE POST for curated news, essays, opinions and analysis from the public health, economics, finance, marketing, IT, business and policy management ecosystem.

DOCTORS:

“Insurance & Risk Management Strategies for Doctors” https://tinyurl.com/ydx9kd93

“Fiduciary Financial Planning for Physicians” https://tinyurl.com/y7f5pnox

“Business of Medical Practice 2.0” https://tinyurl.com/yb3x6wr8

HOSPITALS:

“Financial Management Strategies for Hospitals” https://tinyurl.com/yagu567d

“Operational Strategies for Clinics and Hospitals” https://tinyurl.com/y9avbrq5

***

Risk Management, Liability Insurance, and Asset Protection Strategies for Doctors and Advisors: Best Practices from Leading Consultants and Certified Medical Planners™8Comprehensive Financial Planning Strategies for Doctors and Advisors: Best Practices from Leading Consultants and Certified Medical Planners™

Dr. Marcinko Interviewed on the Physician Credit Crunch

Financial Experts Share Tips on Obtaining Loans to Start or Expand a Medical Practice

By Michael Gibbons

Editor: ADVANCE Newsmagazines

Maybe you’re a young dermatologist or plastic surgeon who dreams of starting your own practice. Or maybe you’re an established professional but want to expand your palette of anti-aging services. Either way, you’ve probably made an unpleasant discovery: Banks are leery about lending today. Global recessions with seemingly no end in sight tend to give loan officers sticky fingers.HO-JFMS-CD-ROM

Dermatologists and Plastic Surgeons

We have it on good authority that dermatologists and plastic surgeons as a group are less affected by this problem than physicians in some other branches of medicine. Still, there’s no better time than now to absorb some sound advice on how to approach banks for loans—whether you’re a fresh-faced newcomer to the fresh-face business or a wrinkled veteran at eliminating wrinkles.

Start Small

There’s no soft-soaping it: Starting a healthy aging practice is much harder than expanding an existing practice, even in the flushest of times.

“For young dermatologists starting out, I recommend you start small,” advises Jerome Potozkin, MD, who offers facial rejuvenation, liposuction, body contouring and dermatological care through his practice in Walnut Creek, CA. “You can always expand. Keep your overhead low. Know what your credit score is and do everything you can to improve it. Pay your bills on time.”

Lasers aren’t cheap. Besides the initial acquisition costs, a service contract can cost $7,000 to $12,000 a year, according to Dr. Potozkin. “Don’t feel you have to buy every new laser under the sun,” he says. “In fact, renting rather than purchasing is an option many companies offer. When your volume is low you can rent and schedule laser days—although the pitfall there is you don’t have lasers available whenever patients come in.”

Also, young dermatologists “will probably have an easier time getting a loan if they go to a relatively underserved area, as opposed to an area that has a large number of dermatologists per capita,” says Dr. Potozkin, who began practicing 10 years ago. “There are two schools of thought on this: Go where you want to live to start a practice or go to where there’s a need and be instantly successful. I chose the former. It took me longer to get started but I’m very happy where I am.”

Patience, Prudence and Passiondem2

Be patient, prudent, passionate—and start with a spare office and as little debt as possible, advises Dr. David E. Marcinko MBA, a financial advisor and Certified Medical Planner™. Marcinko, a health economist,  is CEO of the Institute of Medical Business Advisors Inc., a national physician and medical practice consulting firm based in Norcross, GA www.MedicalBusinessAdvisors.com

“Patients are looking for passion from you, not lavish trappings,” Dr. Marcinko says. “When a banker or a loan officer sees $175,000 or more of debt they are loath to give a loan—and it’s hard to blame them. Purchase a home after you become a private practitioner. You need to be as close to debt-free as you can be.

Exit Strategy

“Another thing bankers want to know is, ‘If we give you a loan and you start a practice and it fails, how will we be paid back?’ They want an exit strategy.”

The good news is dermatology “remains a very lucrative specialty, and in most parts of the country they are in a shortage position, particularly with the aging population,” says Sandra McGraw, JD, MBA, principal and CEO of the Health Care Group, a financial and legal consulting firm based in Plymouth Meeting, PA., that advises the American Academy of Dermatology, among other groups.

“I would start with a realistic business plan for why you think this practice can succeed, in the specific location,” McGraw says. “How many patients do you expect to see? How will they know you are there and available? Remember that banks lend to all kinds of people, so keep your numbers realistic. Overestimating expenses is as bad as underestimating them. Then determine how you want the money—usually a fixed loan for a period of time and then a line of credit as you get your practice going and sometimes need the cash flow.”biz-book

Expanding a Practice

Established dermatologists should have an easier time getting loans to expand their practices. They have, one hopes, a track record of success and assets to put up as collateral.

Mid-career physicians “have cash flow, physician assets and equity to some degree in a house and personal assets,” Dr. Marcinko observes. “Banks can attach loans to personal assets and savings accounts. Ninety-nine percent of times you must sign a personal asset guarantee. Mid-lifers have assets young ones don’t, so mid-lifers aren’t quite the risk. They have businesses that have value and cash flow. Banks like cash flow.”

However, even veterans must do some homework before approaching a bank. “You still want to establish why you want the money and how the expansion will increase your income,” McGraw says.

Another tip: If the bank has loans out with reputable vendors, you might ask the loan officer to recommend them to you as potential contractors. “Sometimes keeping it local and supporting others with loans at the bank can be helpful,” she says.

Assessment

Dr. Marcinko adds, “Bankers today want you to come in with a well-reasoned, well-thought-out and well-written business plan. Give bankers a 30-second elevator speech on why you are different. It’s really important to ask yourself, ‘What can I offer the community as a doctor in my specialty that nobody else can?’ If you bill yourself as the first dermatologist to do laser surgery, that’s a perceived advantage. You purchased the equipment and learned to use it. But anyone can do that. If you can come up with something that nobody else has or can do, that’s how you’re successful in anything.”

Link: Dr. Marcinko Interview

Link: https://healthcarefinancials.files.wordpress.com/2009/08/dr-marcinko-interview.pdf

Conclusion

And so, your thoughts and comments on this Medical Executive-Post are appreciated. Tell us what you think. Feel free to review our top-left column, and top-right sidebar materials, links, URLs and related websites, too. Then, be sure to subscribe to the ME-P. It is fast, free and secure.

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Speaker: If you need a moderator or speaker for an upcoming event, Dr. David E. Marcinko; MBA – Publisher-in-Chief of the Executive-Post – is available for seminar or speaking engagements. Contact: MarcinkoAdvisors@msn.com

Sponsors Welcomed

And, credible sponsors and like-minded advertisers are always welcomed.

Link: https://healthcarefinancials.wordpress.com/2007/11/11/advertise

Backward Market Business Research

Experimenting in Business

By Dan Ariely PhD

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 Part of the CAH Startup Lab Experimenting in Business Series

By Rachael Meleney and Aline Holzwarth

Missteps in business are costly—they drain time, energy, and money.

Of course, business leaders never start a project with the intention to fail—whether it’s implementing a new program, launching a new technology, or trying a new marketing campaign.

Yet, new…

Beginning at the End — Dan Ariely

Product DetailsProduct Details

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A Stock Market Top?

Happy eighth birthday of the bull market!

By Rick Kahler CFP®

March 9, 2017, was the eighth birthday of the bull market in the US S&P 500. In its lifetime it gained 314.4%, an average annual return of 19.4%. This raises a question as to how much longer it will last.

An article posted on MarketWatch.com, “Seven Signs We’re Near a Market Top and What to Do Now” gives some interesting perspective on what to look for to answer that question.

  1. Small investors begin pouring money into stock mutual funds out of fear they might miss out on another year of growth.
  2. Surveys of professional money managers show a declining number who are anticipating an imminent bear market, while more of them think the bull market will continue for a little longer.
  3. The VIX market index, which is a barometer of traders’ expectation of near term volatility (always present with a bear market), signals calm ahead.
  4. There are record price/earnings ratios, which means buyers are bidding up the price of stocks faster than earnings are rising.
  5. Investors have started to forget the pain of the last bear market and are becoming more complacent and optimistic.
  6. The Nasdaq index begins a bull run.
  7. Greed begins to outweigh fear, as investors start fearing missing out on further market gains instead of fearing future market losses.

Even to a casual observer, many of these signs look evident in the equity markets.

I’ve spoken with investors who have been on the sidelines but are thinking it’s time to get into the stock market, given its double-digit returns over the past 12 months along with the Trump rally. This is usually a reliable sign that markets are nearing a top as this new money drives the market to dizzying new highs.

When a market top looks inevitable—and we know the market will fall—what should investors do to protect their capital from being eroded away by a bear market? Selling out your stocks and moving the money to cash is always an option, but not a very good one. How do we really know this is the top and that the market won’t continue to go higher? Often the most profitable and exciting part of a bull market is the frothy run-up just before the fall.

Even more problematic, if you do get out in time to miss the crash, how will you know when it’s time to get back in? The most common answer I am given by investors to that question is, “When the economy looks good again.” That’s similar to a deer hunter saying he will load his gun when he sees a deer. By the time the economy looks good, the run up in stocks is usually nearing its end.

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Act?

The best course of action is to fasten your seat belt and get ready for some terrifying turbulence. Most bear markets drop quickly and recover quickly. Investors who get out usually do so near the bottom and completely miss the inevitable recovery. All bear markets have ended with a new bull market, although the bottom is not identified as such, but rather seen as a pause before another certain downturn.

One more thing!

Don’t feel that missing when to get out and when to get back in would make you inadequate. The majority of those who attempt to time the market for a living will miss it, too. That MarketWatch.com article that listed the seven signs of a market top? It advised investors to start edging out of the markets as soon as possible because red flags were everywhere. And it was published in March 2014—three years ago.

Conclusion

Your thoughts and comments on this ME-P are appreciated. Feel free to review our top-left column, and top-right sidebar materials, links, URLs and related websites, too. Then, subscribe to the ME-P. It is fast, free and secure.

Speaker: If you need a moderator or speaker for an upcoming event, Dr. David E. Marcinko; MBA – Publisher-in-Chief of the Medical Executive-Post – is available for seminar or speaking engagements. Contact: MarcinkoAdvisors@msn.com

OUR OTHER PRINT BOOKS AND RELATED INFORMATION SOURCES:

Risk Management, Liability Insurance, and Asset Protection Strategies for Doctors and Advisors: Best Practices from Leading Consultants and Certified Medical Planners™8Comprehensive Financial Planning Strategies for Doctors and Advisors: Best Practices from Leading Consultants and Certified Medical Planners™

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MARCINKO’s Upcoming WEBINARS from MentorHealth

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MentorHealth

MentorHealth, the sponsor of these ME-P webinars, is a comprehensive training source for healthcare professionals that is high on value, but not on cost. MentorHealth is the right training solution for physicians and healthcare professionals. With MentorHealth webinars, doctors can make the best use of time, talent and treasure to benefit their continuing professional education needs.

So, it is no wonder why they partnered up with the ME-P to produce these three exciting and timely Webinars, delivered by our own Publisher-in-Chief and Distinguished Professor David Edward Marcinko.

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A Medical Malpractice Trial From The Doctor’s POV

Even among the sciences, medicine occupies a special position. Its practitioners come into direct and intimate contact with people in their daily lives they are present at the critical transitional moments of existence.

For many people, they are the only contact with a world that otherwise stands at a forbidding distance. Often in pain, fearful of death, the sick have a special thirst for reassurance and vulnerability to belief.

When this trust is violated, whether rooted in factual substance or merely a conclusion lacking in reality, American jurisprudence offers several remedies with the core being civil litigation. We have personally witnessed a spectrum of reasons that prompts a patient to seek the counsel of an attorney.

Monday, February 6, 2017

10:00 AM PST | 01:00 PM EST

60 Minutes

$139.00

Medical Workplace Violence Issues

Violence in hospitals usually results from patients, and occasionally family members, who feel frustrated, vulnerable, and out of control. Transporting patients,long waits for service,inadequate security, poor environmental design, and unrestricted movement of the public are associated with increased risk of assault in hospitals and may be significant factors in social services workplaces as well.

A lack of staff training and the absence of violence prevention programming are also associated with the elevated risk of assault in hospitals.

Although anyone working in a hospital may become a victim of violence, nurses and aides who have the most direct contact with patients are at higher risk.

Wednesday, February 22, 2017

10:00 AM PST | 01:00 PM EST

60 Minutes

$139.00

Romantic Patient Advances

Within the medical practice, clinic, hospital or university setting, faculty and supervisors exercise significant power and authority over others. Therefore, primary responsibility for maintaining high standards of conduct resides especially with those in faculty and supervisor positions.

Members of the medical faculty and staff, including graduate assistants, are prohibited from having “Amorous Relationships”with students over whom they have “Supervisory Responsibilities.” “Supervisory Responsibilities”are defined as teaching, evaluating, tutoring, advocating, counseling and/or advising duties performed currently and directly, whether within or outside the office, clinic or hospital setting by a faculty, staff member or graduate assistant, with respect to a medical, nursing or healthcare professional student.

Such responsibilities include the administration, provision or supervision of all academic, co-curricular or extra- curricular services and activities, opportunities, awards or benefits offered by or through the health entity or its personnel in their official capacity.

Monday, March 13, 2017

10:00 AM PST | 01:00 PM EST

60 Minutes

$139.00

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MORE:

http://www.mentorhealth.com/control/webinarsearch?speaker_id=41224

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WEBINAR NOTE: These are online interactive training courses using which, professionals from any part of the world have the opportunity to listen to and converse with some of the best-known experts in the HR Industry. These are offered in live & recorded format for single & multiple users (corporate plans ). Under recorded format each user gets unlimited access for six months. Corporate plans give you the best return on your investment as we do not have upper limit on the number of participants who can take part in webinar.

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Penthouse Interviews Murray Rothbard

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Source: A Re-Post by MICHEL ACCAD, MD

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Penthouse Interviews Murray Rothbard

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Conclusion

Your thoughts and comments on this ME-P are appreciated. Feel free to review our top-left column, and top-right sidebar materials, links, URLs and related websites, too. Then, subscribe to the ME-P. It is fast, free and secure.

Speaker: If you need a moderator or speaker for an upcoming event, Dr. David E. Marcinko; MBA – Publisher-in-Chief of the Medical Executive-Post – is available for seminar or speaking engagements. Contact: MarcinkoAdvisors@msn.com

OUR OTHER PRINT BOOKS AND RELATED INFORMATION SOURCES:

[PRIVATE MEDICAL PRACTICE BUSINESS MANAGEMENT TEXTBOOK – 3rd.  Edition]

Product DetailsProduct Details

  [Foreword Dr. Hashem MD PhD] *** [Foreword Dr. Silva MD MBA]

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My Interview Request from The American College of Financial Services

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By Gary Arnesto

RE: Interview Request from The American College of Financial Services

Dr. Marcinko,

I work for the content marketing company Media Shower, and I’m writing on behalf of The American College of Financial Services, a school that offers education in the financial planning field, specifically to help students achieve professional designations such as: Certified Financial Planner (CFP), Chartered Financial Consultant (ChFC), Chartered Life Underwriter (CLU), RICP (Retirement Income Certified Professional), and Financial Services Certified Professional (FSCP).

We’re starting a new Expert Interview series with important people in the financial professional industry, and we’d love to do an email interview with you to run on The American College blog!

We’ll send you a few interview questions, and we’ll turn your responses into a great article for our audience with a link back to The American College. All we ask for in return is a link posted on your site that promotes the interview to your audience.

You can see our website here: http://www.theamericancollege.edu/

If you’d like to discuss the program with someone at the company directly, feel free to contact Xand Griffin at: xgriffin@stratusinteractive.com.

Please let me know if you’d be interested in doing the email interview with us, and we’ll get moving on it right away!

Thank you,

Gary Arnesto

Assessment and RSVP

Many thanks for the invitation Gary, and yes I accept. My opinions may not always be correct; but I am never equivocal.

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David Edward Marcinko MBBS DPM MBA CMP®

http://www.CertifiedMedicalPlanner.org

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Conclusion

Your thoughts and comments on this ME-P are appreciated. Feel free to review our top-left column, and top-right sidebar materials, links, URLs and related websites, too. Then, subscribe to the ME-P. It is fast, free and secure.

Speaker: If you need a moderator or speaker for an upcoming event, Dr. David E. Marcinko; MBA – Publisher-in-Chief of the Medical Executive-Post – is available for seminar or speaking engagements. Contact: MarcinkoAdvisors@msn.com

OUR OTHER PRINT BOOKS AND RELATED INFORMATION SOURCES:

Risk Management, Liability Insurance, and Asset Protection Strategies for Doctors and Advisors: Best Practices from Leading Consultants and Certified Medical Planners™8Comprehensive Financial Planning Strategies for Doctors and Advisors: Best Practices from Leading Consultants and Certified Medical Planners™

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Video on The Current State Of The Stock Market

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Earnings Crisis!

By Chapwood Investments, LLC   

          ***             

MARKETS CLOSED TODAY!   

A Message From Ed Butowsky On The Current State Of The Stock Market

[2/11/2016]

ImageProxy

Click on this link to view video message

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Conclusion

Your thoughts and comments on this ME-P are appreciated. Feel free to review our top-left column, and top-right sidebar materials, links, URLs and related websites, too. Then, subscribe to the ME-P. It is fast, free and secure.

Speaker: If you need a moderator or speaker for an upcoming event, Dr. David E. Marcinko; MBA – Publisher-in-Chief of the Medical Executive-Post – is available for seminar or speaking engagements. Contact: MarcinkoAdvisors@msn.com

OUR OTHER PRINT BOOKS AND RELATED INFORMATION SOURCES:

Comprehensive Financial Planning Strategies for Doctors and Advisors: Best Practices from Leading Consultants and Certified Medical Planners™

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Doctors Living With Higher Stock Market Volatility

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Change is afoot in the market, the rally of which lulled many into complacency

DG

By David Gratke

Volatility, on vacation for most of the past few years, is back this fall for physician investors and us all. It hit a new 52-week high in mid-October, double the level of August. That means change is afoot in the market, whose rally lulled many into complacency. So. this is a good time to see where your portfolio stands in risk terms.

The last time volatility really spiked, as measured by the Standard & Poor’s 500 volatility index, or VIX, was the fall of 2011 when the market last corrected by 20%. Then, the VIX level was twice as high as now. Volatility is market price fluctuation, and it signals greater risk.

Financial Risk

financial risk

The root cause of higher volatility is that the world’s major central banks, including our Federal Reserve, have flooded markets with liquidity – printing money, if you will. In other words, in an effort to jump-start local economies, they have kept rates so low that stocks are artificially higher, and thus ripe for a price-churning correction. The insidious side-effect of this money printing has been to greatly reduce, if not extinguish, historical, and normal, market price fluctuations.

As David Kotok, chairman and chief investment officer of Cumberland Advisors, puts it: “An era is ending: for over half a decade, nearly worldwide, zero interest rates suppressed volatilities. That is over.” The initial indication of this, Kotok says, was when then Fed-Chairman Ben Bernanke indicated that his bond-buying stimulus program was coming to an end. Well, now it’s over and the market fears interest rates are on the way up.

Investor Sentiment

Transferrable  Emotions

Stock market volatility can be measured and is used to gauge investor thinking, or what we call investor sentiment.

The VIX gauges investor sentiment. When volatility is low, the implication is that investors are complacent. Said differently, they are not paying attention to the underlying risks in the marketplace. Also during times of low volatility, markets are often fully valued, or even overvalued due to investor contentment.

When the VIX is high, as it was during the 2008-09 financial crisis, investors exhibited great amounts of fear. They sell out of their investments, and markets are typically undervalued.

Volatility was low prior to 2008, hovering around its historical average of 20. The index then zoomed to 90 during the 2008-09 stock market slide. In recent months, however, most notably June and July, we witnessed a historic low in this index, hovering near 10. Sure enough, there were high levels of margin balances and bullish investor sentiments, along with above-average stock valuations, as seen by lofty price/earnings ratios.

Now, the VIX is slightly below average, at about 15.

Since August, volatility rose from its sleepy historic mid-summer lows for many reasons: Middle East tensions, the Ebola outbreak, low gross domestic product growth, central bank stimulus slowing down, corporate stock buybacks, high P/E ratios, just to highlight a few.

Stock_Market

A New Normal?

Assuming this higher volatility is the new normal, what can you do about it? One alternative is to do nothing and ride this out. Another is to trade options, betting on which way the market will cut. But this is very risky and best done by professionals. Kotok says a volatility surge is a good time to examine your portfolio’s risk profile: His firm’s largest positions are in defensive stocks, like utilities and telecoms – ones that don’t tend to rocket around when the market gyrates.

During a recent volatility boost to the current level, in 2013, a Wall Street Journal story offered some market pros’ tips. Examples: putting money in a balanced fund, where stocks and bonds are in roughly equal proportion. Another warned that whenever stock holdings were over 70% of a portfolio, or under 30%, you are most vulnerable.

Regardless, Kotok cautions that “more and exciting volatilities lie ahead.”

Follow AdviceIQ on Twitter at @adviceiq.

About the Author

David Gratke is chief executive officer of Gratke Wealth LLC in Beaverton, Ore.

Conclusion

Your thoughts and comments on this ME-P are appreciated. Feel free to review our top-left column, and top-right sidebar materials, links, URLs and related websites, too. Then, subscribe to the ME-P. It is fast, free and secure.

Speaker: If you need a moderator or speaker for an upcoming event, Dr. David E. Marcinko; MBA – Publisher-in-Chief of the Medical Executive-Post – is available for seminar or speaking engagements. Contact: MarcinkoAdvisors@msn.com

OUR OTHER PRINT BOOKS AND RELATED INFORMATION SOURCES:

Financial Planning MDs 2015

Comprehensive Financial Planning Strategies for Doctors and Advisors: Best Practices from Leading Consultants and Certified Medical Planners™

 

More on 401(k) Choices

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Studies, Research, Experiments and Experience

By Rick Kahler MS CFP® http://www.KahlerFinancial.com

Rick Kahler MS CFPHere is a conversation I’ve had too many times: An acquaintance says proudly that he invests the maximum into his 401(k). I ask what allocation he’s made between equities and bonds.

He says he just divides his contributions equally among the four investment choices the plan offers. I cringe.

The Book

While it’s wise to put the maximum into your 401(k), it’s also important to choose the right investment options. This is difficult for most people, as shown in the 2004 book, Pension Design and Structure, by Olivia Mitchell and Stephen Utkus.

The Study

In one study, participants were asked to allocate their 401(k) contributions between two investment funds. The first group was given a choice of a bond fund and a stock fund. A second group was given the choice of a bond fund and a balanced fund (50% in stocks and 50% in bonds). A third group was given the choice of a stock fund and a balanced fund.

In all three cases, a common strategy was for participants to split their contributions equally between the two funds offered. Yet because of the difference in the funds, the asset allocations of each group differed radically. The average allocation to stocks was 54% for the first group, 35% for the second, and 73% for the third.

The Experiment

In another experiment, participants were asked to select investments from three different menus offering options with varying degrees of risk. Most made their choices simply by avoiding both the high-risk and the low-risk extremes. They didn’t select a portfolio from the available options based on the appropriateness of the risk each presented.

Investing your retirement funds in such a haphazard manner is almost the same as playing the roulette wheel. A portfolio with 35% in stocks will perform very differently than one with 73%. Especially if you’re young, holding the portfolio with the 35% stock allocation or the 73% may mean a significant difference in your retirement lifestyle.

Another Study

In another study, when employees were given a choice between holding their own portfolio or that of the average participant in the plan, about 80% chose the average portfolio. That’s like going into a clothing store and telling the sales clerk, “Just give me a suit in whatever size you sell the most.

Implications

These studies suggest ways employers can help employees make better investment decisions. One strategy is to reduce their investment choices to a small number of funds that offer portfolios with an asset allocation based on various target retirement dates. Another is to offer employees a variety of investment choices, along with guidance and education so they could make intelligent choices.

My Experiences

In my 30 years of investment experience, the strategy I’ve seen work the best is having a wide variety of asset classes (global stocks, global bonds, treasury inflation protected securities, real estate investment trusts, and commodities) that do well in a variety of economic scenarios. A study reported on by Peng Chen in Financial Planning in 2010 found that from 1970 to 2009, a portfolio with a minimum of 10% to a maximum of 30% in each of these asset classes out-performed portfolios that did not have commodity exposure. Splitting 401(k) contributions equally among these asset classes would provide a greater chance of having an appropriately well-balanced portfolio.

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Spreadsheet

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Assessment

Once you’ve chosen a variety of asset classes, then keep your hands off except for periodic rebalancing. True, this strategy means that in any given year your portfolio will always have winners and losers. Yet with a broad range of assets, the losers and winners tend to balance out. Over the long run the odds are good that you will do fine.

Note: Ditto for 403(b) plans.

More:

Conclusion

Your thoughts and comments on this ME-P are appreciated. Feel free to review our top-left column, and top-right sidebar materials, links, URLs and related websites, too. Then, subscribe to the ME-P. It is fast, free and secure.

Speaker: If you need a moderator or speaker for an upcoming event, Dr. David E. Marcinko; MBA – Publisher-in-Chief of the Medical Executive-Post – is available for seminar or speaking engagements. Contact: MarcinkoAdvisors@msn.com

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IMPLICATION OF WITHDRAWALS IN A LOW INTEREST RATE ENVIRONMENT

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A SPECIAL ME-P REPORT

A Retrospective Review … and Implications for Modernity

[Copyright Manning & Napier Advisors, Inc.]

Dr. Jeff Coons

By Jeff Coons PhD CFA

By Dr. David Edward Marcinko MBA CMP

The general trend of declining interest rates experienced over the last several decades, part of a long-term trend Manning & Napier Advisors, Inc. and others have focused on since the early 1980’s, created new challenges for managing investment portfolios with regular and significant cash withdrawals.

Historical Review

This continuing report, first prepared 15 years ago, will provide an analysis of the investment implications of withdrawals in light of the secular shift in the economic and market conditions today. This analysis and historical review aims to guide decisions as to the appropriate level of withdrawals from an account in the more current low interest rate environment of 2014; and thru currently to 2019.

The Questions

Declining interest rates restrict the ability to generate income from high quality investments, so a greater proportion of a given withdrawal requirement must come from the potential price appreciation of the securities.  Of course, the inherently volatile nature of the financial markets makes price appreciation the less predictable of the sources of total return available to fund withdrawal needs.

The natural questions that arise from this observation include:

  • What withdrawal rate inhibits the ability to pursue long-term capital growth as a primary investment objective?
  • What withdrawal rate may create a significant risk of a sustained deterioration of capital?
  • What is a reasonable range of withdrawal rates given the relatively low interest rate environment that we face? 

The answer to the first question can be derived from interest rates and dividend yields.  With a dividend yield of 1.0%-2.0% on stocks (e.g., the yield on the S&P 500 Index as of December 2000 was 1.2%) and yields on intermediate-term and long-term fixed income securities between 5.0% and 6.0% (e.g., as of December 2000, a one-year Treasury Bill had a yield of 5.4% and a thirty-year Treasury bond had a yield of 5.5%), growth-oriented portfolios should generally produce a level of income adequate to allow 2.5%-3.5% withdrawals on an annual basis.

Thus, rates of withdrawal of less than 3.5% generally should not inhibit the pursuit of long-term capital growth as a primary investment objective.

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Portfolio analysis

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Management Aproach

To establish the high end of the achievable withdrawals under a management approach pursuing long-term capital growth, consider some historical evidence.

Assume that withdrawals are taken from each of three portfolios (i.e., 100% stocks, 80% stocks/20% bonds, and 50% stocks/50% bonds using data from Ibbotson Associates, Inc.) starting at the beginning of 1973.  How many years did it take to regain the original capital of the portfolio?

As can be seen in the following table, it took between 4-8 years for these portfolios to recover from the 1973-74 bear market with a 5.0% withdrawal rate.  If withdrawals are at a 7.5% rate per year, over ten years elapsed before the original capital was restored.

Finally, with a 10.0% withdrawal rate, it took between 13-15 years to restore the capital.  While the 1973-74 bear market was severe, it is not the worst bear market that can be used to illustrate the risk of significant withdrawals taken when the portfolio’s market value is depressed.

The clear conclusion is that withdrawals of greater than 5.0% are a potential impediment to pursuing long-term capital growth, given the long periods required to restore capital for the various growth-oriented asset mixes offered in this analysis.

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When Was Original (12/72) Capital Restored?
  1. 0% W/D
 

  1. 5% W/D
 

  1. 0% W/D
 100% Stock  9/80(7.75 years) 6/83(10.5 years) 6/86(14.5 years)
80% Stock/ 20% Bond  9/80(7.75 years) 3/83(10.25 years) 6/86(14.5 years)
50% Stock/ 50% Bond  12/76(4.0 years) 3/83(10.25 years) 3/87(15.25 years)

***

Another key issue to remember is that the withdrawal rates above are a percentage of current market value, so the dollar value of the cash withdrawn from the account is assumed to decline in a bear market.  However, most of us think of our withdrawal needs in terms of dollars instead of percentages (e.g., $50,000 from a $1,000,000 account, which translates to 5%).

If we attempt to maintain the dollar value of withdrawals in bear market periods, the percentage of current market value being withdrawn actually increases, and the impact on the portfolio far exceeds the example provided above.

SAMPLE:

To demonstrate, consider maintaining withdrawals of $50,000, $75,000 and $100,000 on an account with a $1,000,000 market value as of 12/72 (see table below).

In the case of a $50,000 annual withdrawal, approximately 8-10 years elapse before the original $1,000,000 market value is restored.  If the withdrawals are $75,000 per year, 13 years elapse for the 50/50 asset mix and almost 19 years pass for the 80/20 asset mix before the $1,000,000 is restored.  For the 100% stock portfolio, nearly 25 years elapse before the original $1,000,000 is restored.

Finally, for $100,000 withdrawals off of a $1,000,000 market value in 1972, all capital in the account is depleted within 10-15 years given these withdrawals.  Thus, the risk of significant cash withdrawals having a detrimental impact on the ability to preserve and grow capital is much more pronounced when withdrawals remain high in dollar terms.

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When Was Original Capital ($1,000,000 in 12/72) Restored?
$50,000 W/D  $75,000 W/D  $100,000 W/D
 100% Stock  3/83(10.25 years) 9/97(24.75 years) Capital Depleted9/83
80% Stock/ 20% Bond  12/80(8.0 years) 9/91(18.75 years) Capital Depleted3/85
50% Stock/ 50% Bond  9/80(7.75 years) 3/86(13.25 years) Capital Depleted9/87

***

So far, the major point we have established is that a withdrawal rate of 2.5%-3.5% may be achievable without hampering the pursuit of long-term capital growth, but withdrawals of 5% or greater may have a significant impact on the ability to manage for growth.  Therefore, accounts expected to experience withdrawals of 4%-5% (or greater) should be managed with a goal of satisfying these withdrawal needs on a regular basis first, with the pursuit of capital growth taking secondary importance.

However, the analysis provided above also implies that there is a rate of withdrawals that forces us to focus on capital preservation, because depletion of capital is a likely outcome.  For withdrawals in the range of 10.0%, the example above shows that the risk of depletion of capital is significant at these high annual levels, especially if the withdrawals are on a dollar basis and not adjusted by the decline of current market value in a bear market.

In fact, with long-term U.S. government bond yields at approximately 5.0%-6.0%, annual withdrawals greater than 7.5% are likely to be too high to allow a manager to effectively pursue long-term capital growth without a high degree of risk to the capital of the account.  That is, since attempts to provide returns above the current Treasury yields imply risk of volatility, and volatility can lead to the examples provided above, withdrawals at 7.5% or more and maintained on a dollar basis imply a high likelihood that original capital will be depleted over a 15-20 year period.

In general, the current level of yields in the market imply that management of a portfolio requiring over 7.5% per year in withdrawals faces a strong possibility of depleting capital under any scenario, and so portfolio management should focus on dampening market volatility so as to extend the life of the capital for as long as possible as it is drawn down.

Final Questions

The final question[s] (i.e., the appropriate level of withdrawals) is driven by both the client’s need for the assets and the parameters outlined above:

  1. Withdrawals less than 3.5% of current market value should not inhibit the pursuit of long-term capital growth as a primary objective.
  2. Withdrawal rates between 3.6% and 7.4% require a primary focus on satisfying withdrawal needs over the market cycle, possibly with a secondary goal of long-term capital growth to protect future withdrawal needs.
  3. Withdrawal rates greater than 7.5% are likely to result in a depletion of capital, so the goal should be to manage the drawdown of capital by dampening year-to-year volatility of the portfolio.

While we all would like to achieve capital growth, the ability to pursue growth-oriented strategies depends on the flexibility to moderate withdrawals, if required by market conditions, and on the overall reliance on these assets.

As another example, an endowment can control its withdrawals to some extent, but there is a level beyond which the belt cannot be tightened without harming the services being funded.

Yet another example comes from a physician-executive or someone living primarily on an IRA account, especially after becoming accustomed to the high (and falling) interest rate/high asset return environment of the last fifteen years.  Aggressively pursuing capital growth in the face of large withdrawals may result in exposure to significant risk of depletion of the IRA assets when other sources of income are unavailable.

If, on the other hand, the IRA was a small part of the wealth available in retirement, then there is some flexibility to work towards long-term capital growth.

Financial Planning MDs 2015

Implications for defined benefit retirement plans

A defined benefit retirement plan may have an outside source of funding to help restore capital (i.e., contributions from the employer), but defined contribution and Taft-Hartley plans have much less of a safety net.  As a result, the risk taken to pursue growth in the face of significant withdrawals must take into account the nature of the assets and the problems associated with a deterioration of capital in the account.

Assessment

And so, withdrawals can have a significant impact on the ability of a manager to preserve capital and pursue long-term capital growth.  However, while lessening the level of withdrawals will help provide flexibility for the manager to pursue these goals, the need for the assets may require that withdrawals are maintained at a certain level.  Once withdrawals are minimized, the manager should focus on investment goals that correspond with this minimum level.

If withdrawals are below 3% of current market value, pursuit of long-term capital growth can be a primary objective.  Withdrawals between 4% and 7.5% of market value on an annual basis require a focus on working towards satisfying these annual needs.  Long-term capital growth, in this case, should be a secondary goal.

Finally, if withdrawals are above a 7.5% annual rate, then the investment management approach should focus on preserving capital and dampening market volatility so as to work towards allowing the assets to last as long as possible as they are drawn down.

NOTE: The 10-year Treasury rate’s just fell below 2% after Fed, ECB nominees; today.

Conclusion

This historical review paper provides a retrospective review of IRs and implications for modernity.

Your thoughts and comments on this ME-P are appreciated. Feel free to review our top-left column, and top-right sidebar materials, links, URLs and related websites, too. Then, subscribe to the ME-P. It is fast, free and secure.

Speaker: If you need a moderator or speaker for an upcoming event, Dr. David E. Marcinko; MBA – Publisher-in-Chief of the Medical Executive-Post – is available for seminar or speaking engagements. Contact: MarcinkoAdvisors@msn.com

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Stock Market at New Highs!

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Is this a Bubble?

[A SPECIAL R&D REPORT FOR THE ME-P]

By David K. Luke MIM, MS-PFP, CMP™ [Certified Medical Planner™] http://www.networthadvice.com

David K. LukeThe market news has been replete with the phrase “new market high“ in the business news every couple of weeks as of late. The corresponding message is often that the stock market is likewise in a bubble. The S&P 500 index and the Dow Jones Industrial Average index are at all-time highs. The indexes have surpassed the 2007 peak.

The reality is however that the S&P 500 is up less than 6% from the beginning of the year, and the Dow is up about 2%. Most investors, of course, do not invest just in these two indexes, as these two indexes represent very large capitalized companies.

I am reminded of the customer in 1995 when I worked at a national brokerage firm that called me to liquidate his entire stock portfolio. “The stock market was too high,” he said. He was 5 years too early.

Risk Mitigation

Most investors will have a diversified portfolio that includes mid-cap stocks, small-cap stocks, and international stocks as well as large cap stocks such as found in the S&P 500.

Of course, these equity investments are also typically subdivided into the broader categories of “Growth” and “Value.” Which means most investors that believe in diversification will own four different “types” of stock, each divided into two different categories for eight different baskets of stock if you will. The typical daily news will focus only perhaps on the S&P 500, which is a portfolio of large capitalized growth stocks. This is only one of the eight different types of stock that an investor would typically own.

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In strong bull markets, typically all eight categories of stock go up together with some degree of correlation. This is also true in strong bear markets with all eight categories of stock going down in some degree of correlation. Portfolio managers typically try to offset high correlation of investments by owning investments in asset classes that typically do not all correlate together. This is a major technique used to reduce the volatility in an account.

However as you can see so far this year, most all of the eight stock indexes with the exception of small-cap growth are up slightly in line with the S&P index.

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[As of June 13, 2014] 

Name Ticker % Total Return YTD % Total Return 12 Month
Large Cap iShares S&P 500 Growth IVW 5.59 22.55
iShares S&P 500 Value IVE 5.76 18.39
Mid Cap iShares S&P MidCap 400 Growth IJK 2.69 18.24
iShares S&P Mid-Cap 400 Value IJJ 7.66 23.19
Small Cap iShares S&P Small-Cap 600 Growth IJT -0.52 20.8
iShares S&P Small-Cap 600 Value IJS 2.3 21.37
Foreign Large Blend iShares Core MSCI EAFE IEFA 3.75 19.25
Barclays Aggregate Bond Index iShares Core US Aggregate Bond AGG 3.26 2.39

Source: Morningstar

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Inflation

The buying power of the US Dollar has changed over the years. The Consumer Price Index (CPI), a common measure of inflation, has averaged around a 3% annual increase from 1913 – 2014 according to the U.S. Department of Labor Bureau of Labor Statistics.

In fact, an item purchased for $5.00 in 1913 would have a cost of $119.73 today, or a cumulative rate of inflation for the past 100 years of 2,294.7%. The cost of living rising each year is a safe bet. Inflation has increased every year in the past 50 years with one exception: 2009 when inflation fell -0.4%.

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Update: 06/17/2014 04:10 ET

[Market Update]
Symbol Last Change
DOW 16,808.49 +27.48
NASDAQ 4,337.23 +16.13
S&P 1,941.99 +4.21

Conclusions:

  1. The Market Indexes at new highs does not indicate a bubble. In fact, the market should, relatively speaking, regularly be hitting new highs because of the consistency of positive inflation. Prices of goods and services today are at all-time highs. Does that mean we are in an “inflation” bubble? No. This is normal.
  2. The S&P 500 is not an accurate measure of the US economy. While the S&P 500 is the common “market” indicator in the US, only about 55% of the earnings of the index come from the US. (Source: RBC Capital Markets Research, Capital IQ 2012). This is because mainly large multinational companies such as Google, IBM, and Apple that have a significant amount of overseas revenues weight the index.
  3. The S&P 500 or the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA – 30 stocks) is most likely not an exact reflection of your personal stock portfolio, which would expectantly be more diversified. A typical well-diversified long-term investment portfolio would include not just large cap stocks (such as found in the S&P 500 or DJIA), but mid, small, and international stocks from the growth and value camp, as well as a diversified bond holding.
  4. Overpriced stocks, just like overpriced real estate, are more prudently ascertained by value measures, not simply by raw index numbers. A stock hitting new highs could still be quite undervalued. Meaningful variables such as earnings growth, price to earnings ratio, dividend yield, price-to-book, price-to-sales, and other metrics should be considered.

Conclusion

Your thoughts and comments on this ME-P are appreciated. Feel free to review our top-left column, and top-right sidebar materials, links, URLs and related websites, too. Then, subscribe to the ME-P. It is fast, free and secure.

Speaker: If you need a moderator or speaker for an upcoming event, Dr. David E. Marcinko; MBA – Publisher-in-Chief of the Medical Executive-Post – is available for seminar or speaking engagements. Contact: MarcinkoAdvisors@msn.com

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How Much is a Financial Advisor Really Worth?

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And … Can it be Quantified?

Doctors and FAs

[By Staff Reporters]

How much of a boost in net returns can financial advisors add to client portfolios? According to Vanguard Brokerage Services®; maybe as much as 3%?

The Study

In a recent paper from the Valley Forge, PA based mutual fund and ETF giant, Vanguard said financial advisors can generate returns through a framework focused on five wealth management principles:

Being an effective behavioral coach: Helping clients maintain a long-term perspective and a disciplined approach is arguably one of the most important elements of financial advice. (Potential value added: up to 1.50%).

Applying an asset location strategy: The allocation of assets between taxable and tax-advantaged accounts is one tool an advisor can employ that can add value each year. (Potential value added: from 0% to 0.75%).

Employing cost-effective investments: This component of every advisor’s tool kit is based on simple math: Gross return less costs equals net return. (Potential value added: up to 0.45%).

Maintaining the proper allocation through rebalancing: Over time, as investments produce various returns, a portfolio will likely drift from its target allocation. An advisor can add value by ensuring the portfolio’s risk/return characteristics stay consistent with a client’s preferences. (Potential value added: up to 0.35%).

Implementing a spending strategy: As the retiree population grows, an advisor can help clients make important decisions about how to spend from their portfolios. (Potential value added: up to 0.70%).

Source: Financial Advisor Magazine, page 20, April 2014.

networking advisors

The Fine-Print

But, Vanguard notes that while it’s possible all of these principles could add up to 3% in net returns for clients, it’s more likely to be an intermittent number than an annual one because some of the best opportunities to add value happen during extreme market lows and highs when angst or giddiness [fear and greed] can cause investors to bail on their well-thought-out investment plans.

More: http://www.CertifiedMedicalPlanner.org

Assessment

Most retail financial services products are designed to enhance the well-being of the Financial Advisor and/or vendor at the expense of clients. The clients get only the leftovers. Of course, no one tells them that secret. They have to figure it out for themselves. As the old line goes, “Where are the customers’ boats?”

Source: Rowland, M: Planning Periscope [Where Advisors are the Clients]. Financial Advisors Magazine; page 36, April 2014

Conclusion

Are doctors different than the average investors noted in this essay?

Your thoughts and comments on this ME-P are appreciated. Feel free to review our top-left column, and top-right sidebar materials, links, URLs and related websites, too. Then, subscribe to the ME-P. It is fast, free and secure.

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On New Issues and Securities Stabilization

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A Primer for Physician Investors and Medical Professionals

By: Dr. David Edward Marcinko; MBA, CMP™

[Editor-in-Chief] http://www.CertifiedMedicalPlanner.org

[PART 3 OF 8]

NEU Dr. Marcinko

NOTE: This is an eight part ME-P series based on a weekend lecture I gave more than a decade ago to an interested group of graduate, business and medical school students. The material is a bit dated and some facts and specifics may have changed since then. But, the overall thought-leadership information of the essay remains interesting and informative. We trust you will enjoy it.

Introduction

Some securities issues move very well, like traditional blue chips stocks (ie., Wallgreen). Some are dogs, like smaller dot.com companies (iixl.com). Then, there are issues that are former darling, but are now ice cold; like PPMCs (i.e., Phycor) and internet stocks (i.e., Dr. Koop).  How far can an underwriting manager go in nudging along an issue that’s not selling well? SEC rules do permit a certain amount of help by the manager, even if this takes on the appearance of price-fixing. This help is called stabilizing the issue.

Simply put, if shortly after a new offering begins, supply exceeds demand, there will be downward pressure on the price. But, the law requires that all purchasers of the new issue pay the official offering price on the prospectus. If public holders of the stock become willing to bail out and accept a low selling price, the investor looking to buy will find he is able to buy stock of the issuer cheaper in the open market than buying it new from the syndicate members.

To prevent such a decline in the price of a security during a public offering, SEC rules permit the manager to offer to buy shares in \ the open market at a bid price at, or just below, the official offering price of the new issue. This is referred to as stabilizing and his bid price is called the stabilizing bid. There is always the risk, in a firm commitment underwriting, that the underwriters will have difficulty selling the new issue. What they can’t sell, they’re “stuck” with. That’s where the term “sticky issue” comes from.

As a physician executive, or potential investor in a new issue, be aware that the best way to get an issue to sell is to increase the compensation to the sales force (i.e., stock broker or Registered Rep).

Another choice is through stabilization. Stabilizing is a permitted form of market manipulation which tends to protect underwriters against loss. It allows the underwriting syndicate (usually through the efforts of the syndicate manager) to stabilize (peg or fix) the secondary market trading price in a new issue at the published public offering price. It works something like this.

When a new issue is selling slowly, some of the investors who initially purchased, may be dissatisfied with the performance of the stock (if it is selling slowly and the underwriters have plenty to sell at the public offering price, this is anything but a hot issue and the security price will not have risen).

This dissatisfaction with performance leads to these investors desiring to sell the securities they have just purchased. If the underwriters are unable to sell at the public offering price, certainly an individual investor will have to take less when bailing out. As market makers begin to trade the stock in the secondary market, they would only be able to compete with the underwriters by offering the stock at a lower price than the public offering  price. This would make it difficult (if not impossible) for the underwriters to distribute the remaining new shares.

In order to prevent this from happening, the managing underwriter (who is usually the one to assume the role of stabilizing underwriter), agrees to purchase back any of the new shares at or just slightly below the public offering price. That is a higher price than any market maker could, in all practicality, bid for the shares. When the shares are repurchased by the stabilizing underwriter, it is as if the initial trade were annulled and never took place so that these new shares are now placed back into the distribution and are sold as new shares at the public offering price. SEC rules do, however, require disclosure of this practice.

Therefore, no syndicate manager may engage in stabilizing unless the following phrase appears in bold print on the inside front cover page of the prospectus:

IN CONNECTION WITH THIS OFFERING, THE UNDERWRITERS MAY OVER ALLOT OR EFFECT TRANSACTIONS WHICH STABILIZE OR MAINTAIN THE MARKET PRICE OF (XYZ COMPANY) AT A LEVEL ABOVE THAT WHICH MIGHT OTHERWISE PREVAIL IN THE OPEN MARKET. SUCH TRANSACTIONS MAY BE EFFECTED ON (NYSE) STABILIZING, IF COMMENCED, MAY BE DISCONTINUED AT ANY TIME.

Of course, it would be manipulation and, therefore, a violation of law, if this “price-pegging” activity continued after the entire new issue was sold out. This activity costs the syndicate manager money which is recouped by levying a syndicate penalty bid against those members of the syndicate whose clients turn shares in on a stabilizing bid.

One way to avoid stabilization is to over allot  to each of the syndicate members. This is the same concept as “over booking” that’s done by the airlines. Most airlines typically sell 5% to 10% more seats than the airplane has knowing that there will be last minute cancellations and no shows. This tends to ensure that the plan will fly full. In the same manner, managing under-writers frequently over allot an additional 10% to each of their syndicate members so that last minute cancellations should still leave the syndicate with sell orders for 100% of the issue. If there are no “drop outs”, one of two things may happen.

  1. The issuer will issue the additional shares (which results in it raising more money).
  2. The issuer will not issue the additional shares and the syndicate will have to go short. Any losses suffered by the syndicate through taking of this short position are shared proportionately by the syndicate members.

Now, what if market conditions and the fervor surrounding a new issue like e-commerce company Ariba,  in 1999, remain so that the issue doesn’t cool down during the cooling off period? Such hot issues are a mixed blessing to be sure.

On the one hand, the issue is a sure sell-out. On the other hand, just how many healthcare investors are going to be told by brokers that additional shares can not be obtained.

Furthermore, the SEC and the NASD/FINRA are vigorous [or should be] in their scrutiny of  proper distribution channels for hot issues. Just what is a “proper” distribution?  It can be summed up in one sentence. Member firms have an obligation to make a “bona fide” public distribution of all the shares at the public offering price. The key to this rule lies within the definition of bona fide public distribution.

While the underwriting procedures for corporate bonds are almost identical to corporate stock, there are significant differences in the underwriting of municipal securities. Municipal securities are exempt from the registration filing requirements or the Securities Act of 1933. A state or local government, in the issuance of municipal securities, is not required to register the offering with the SEC, so there is no filing of a registration statement and there is no prospectus which would otherwise have to be given to investors.

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Municipal Underwriting

There are two main methods of financing when it comes to municipal securities. One method is known as negotiated. In the case of a negotiated sale, the municipality looking to borrow money would approach an investment bank and negotiate the terms of the offering directly with the firm. This is really not very different from the above equity discussions.

The other type of municipal underwriting is known as competitive bidding. Under the terms of competitive bidding, an issuer announces that it wishes to borrow money and is looking for syndicates to submit competitive bids. The issue will then be sold to the syndicate which submits the best bid, resulting in the municipality having the lowest net interest cost (lowest expense to the issuer).

If the issue is to be done by a competitive bid, the municipality will use a Notice of Sale to announce that fact. The notice of sale will generally include most or all of the following information.

  • Date, time, and place. This does not mean when the bonds will be sold to the public, but when the issue will be awarded (sold) to the syndicate issuing the bid.
  • Description of the issue and the manner in which the bid is to be made (sealed bid or oral). Type of bond (general obligation, revenue, etc.)
  • Semi-annual interest payment dates and the denominations in which the bonds will be printed.
  • Amount of good faith deposit required, if any.
  • Name of the law firm providing the legal opinion and where to acquire a bid form.
  • The basis upon which the bid will  e awarded, generally the lowest net interest cost.

Since municipal securities are not registered with the SEC, the municipality must hire a law firm in order to make sure that they are issuing the securities in compliance with all state, local and federal laws. This is known as the bond attorney, or independent bond counsel. Some functions are included below:

    1. Establishes the exemption from federal income tax by verifying  requirements for the exemption.
    2. Determines proper authority for the bond issuance.
    3. Identifies and monitors proper issuance procedures.
    4. Examines the physical bond  ertificates to make sure that they are proper
    5. Issues the debt and a legal opinion, since municipal bonds are the only securities that require an opinion.
    6. Does not prepare the official statement.

When medical investors purchase new issue municipal securities from syndicate or selling group members, there is no prospectus to be delivered to investors, but there is a document which is provided to purchasers very similar in nature to a prospectus. It is known as an Official Statement. The Official Statement contains all of the information an investor needs to make a prudent decision regarding a proposed municipal bond purchase.

The formation of a municipal underwriting syndicate is very similar to that for a corporate  issue. When there is a negotiated underwriting, an Agreement Among Underwriters (AAU) is used. When the issue is competitive bid, the agreement is known as a Syndicate Letter. In the syndicate letter, the managing underwriter details all of the underwriting agreements among members of the syndicate. Eastern (undivided) and Western (divided) accounts are also used, but there are  several different types of orders in a municipal underwriting. The traditional types of orders, in priority order, are:

Pre-Sale Order: Made before the syndicate actually offers the bonds. They have first priority over any other order turned in.

Syndicate (group net) Order: Made once the offering is under way at the public offering price. The purchase is credited to each syndicate member in proportion to its allotment. An institutional buyer will frequently purchase” group net”, since many of the firms in the syndicate may consider this buyer to be their client and he wishes to please all of them.

Designated Order: Sales to medical investors (usually healthcare institutions) at the public offering price where the investor designates which member or members of the syndicate are to be given credit.

Member Orders: Purchased  by members of  the syndicate at the take-down price (spread). The syndicate member keeps the full take-down if the bonds are sold to investors, or earns the take-down less the concession if the sale is made to a member of the selling group. Should the offering be over-subscribed, and the demand for the new bonds exceeds the supply, the first orders to be filled are the pre-sale orders. Those are followed by the syndicate (sometimes called group net) orders, the designated orders, and the last orders filled are the member’s.

Finally, be aware that the term bond scale, is a listing of coupon rates, maturity dates, and yield or price at which the syndicate is re-offering the bonds to the public. The scale is usually found in the center of a tombstone ad and on the front cover of the official statement.

One of the reasons why the word “scale” is used is, that like the scale on a piano, it normally goes up. A regular or positive scale is one in which the yield to maturity is lowest on the near term maturities and highest on the long term maturities. This is also known as a positive yield curve, since the longer the maturity, the higher the yield. In times of very tight money, such as in 1980-81, one might find a bond offering with a negative scale.

A negative (sometimes called inverted) scale is just the opposite of a positive one, with, yields on the short term maturities are higher than those on the long term maturities.

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Passive Investing with a “Steroid Twist”

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A Core and Satellite Philosophy

By Rick Kahler CFP® http://www.KahlerFinancial.com

Rick Kahler CFP“Keep your hands away from your investments and back away from the market reports.”

That pretty much sums up passive investing, the approach I have practiced for years. I’ve preached it for years, too, and did so in a recent column. The wisest way to build wealth is by investing in a variety of asset classes, setting target allocations in each asset class, and then taking your hands off except to periodically rebalance to the original target allocations.

For most of us, including doctors, the best way to invest in an asset class is to give our funds to a mutual fund manager who will purchase the appropriate investments. Mutual fund managers have a choice of actively or passively managing the money you give them to invest.

Passivity 

Passive managers try to match market indexes, which are groups of companies representing a cross-section of a certain type of investment. The most popular index in the world is probably the S&P 500 index, which consists of the largest 500 companies in the United States. Another popular index is the Dow Jones Industrial Index which is made up of 30 companies. When we consider the US has almost 10,000 companies, we can quickly see that many indexes represent just a segment of the entire market.

Research indicates it is very hard to beat an index, especially with stocks, bonds, real estate investment trusts, and commodities. I prefer to keep about 80% of my investment portfolio in a broad variety of passively managed investments in these asset classes.

Timing or Strategy?

Where do I put the other 20%? In mutual funds with active managers who try to earn returns similar to stocks and bonds and that are not correlated to either.

This may seem to make me a hypocrite. I’ve been saying for years not to be a market timer, and now here I am suggesting you do just the opposite with a portion of your portfolio. Not hypocrisy at all. What I’ve preached for many years is that neither you nor I have any business timing investments. That doesn’t mean no one should ever do it.

So, is it timing or strategy?

Core and Satellite Philosophy

It can be wise to put a small portion [satellite] of our portfolios [core] into various investment strategies with active managers. The key is to find managers who have a disciplined approach that eliminates emotion and who have long-term track records of success. These strategies include managers who attempt to time markets by shorting stocks they think will decline in value and buying stocks they think will rise.

It also includes one investment strategy, managed futures, that I call “timing on steroids.”

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Bull markets

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Rationale

My reason for including some actively managed funds is to have part of my investment portfolio that is not correlated to stocks. I want these investments to have a positive return over a long period, but also to move in opposition to other major asset classes, especially stocks. So when stocks are up, I am not fazed if my managed futures are down. And, when stocks are down, I am thankful when my managed futures are up. If both asset classes earn 6 to 9% over a long period of time, I’m happy.

So, call it … passive investing with a steroid twist.

Assessment

So I stand by my commitment to passive investing. It’s based on research suggesting that timing the markets is a loser’s game.

Yet part of passive investing is having a fully diversified portfolio. This includes having a small portion—20% or less—in mutual funds with disciplined, successful active managers. My job is to research and find those managers. Then it’s okay to let them time their hearts out. I just make sure I don’t try to time the timers.

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Dr. Marcinko Interviewed on Physician Retirement and Succession Planning

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Physicians Have Unique Challenges, Opportunities

By Ann Miller RN MHA

[Executive-Director]

Medical Executive-Post Publisher-in-Chief, Dr. David Edward Marcinko MBA CMP™, and financial planner Paul Larson CFP™, were interviewed by Sharon Fitzgerald for Medical News, Inc. Here is a reprint of that interview.

Doctors Squeezed from both Ends

Physicians today “are getting squeezed from both ends” when it comes to their finances, according Paul Larson, president of Larson Financial Group. On one end, collections and reimbursements are down; on the other end, taxes are up. That’s why financial planning, including a far-sighted strategy for retirement, is a necessity.

Larson Speaks

“We help these doctors function like a CEO and help them quarterback their plan,” said Larson, a Certified Financial Planner™ whose company serves thousands of physicians and dentists exclusively. Headquartered in St. Louis, Larson Financial boasts 19 locations.

Larson launched his company after working with a few physicians and recognizing that these clients face unique financial challenges and yet have exceptional opportunities, as well.

What makes medical practitioners unique? One thing, Larson said, is because they start their jobs much later in life than most people. Physicians wrap up residency or fellowship, on average, at the age of 32 or even older. “The delayed start really changes how much money they need to be saving to accomplish these goals like retirement or college for their kids,” he said.

Another thing that puts physicians in a unique category is that most begin their careers with a student-loan debt of $175,000 or more. Larson said that there’s “an emotional component” to debt, and many physicians want to wipe that slate clean before they begin retirement saving.

Larson also said doctors are unique because they are a lawsuit target – and he wasn’t talking about medical malpractice suits. “You can amass wealth as a doctor, get sued in five years and then lose everything that you worked so hard to save,” he said. He shared the story of a client who was in a fender-bender and got out of his car wearing his white lab coat. “It was bad,” Larson said, and the suit has dogged the client for years.

The Three Mistake of Retirement Planning

Larson said he consistently sees physicians making three mistakes that may put a comfortable retirement at risk.

  1. The first is assuming that funding a retirement plan, such as a 401(k), is sufficient. It’s not. “There’s no way possible for you to save enough money that way to get to that goal,” he said. That’s primarily due to limits imposed by the Internal Revenue Service, which allows a maximum contribution of $49,000 annually if self-employed and just $16,500 annually until the age of 50. He recommends that physicians throughout their career sock away 20 percent of gross income in vehicles outside of their retirement plan.
  2. The second common mistake is making investments that are inefficient from a tax perspective. In particular, real estate or bond investments in a taxable account prompt capital gains with each dividend, and that’s no way to make money, he said.
  3. The third mistake, and it’s a big one, is paying too much to have their money managed. A stockbroker, for example, takes a fee for buying mutual funds and then the likes of Fidelity or Janus tacks on an internal fee as well. “It’s like driving a boat with an anchor hanging off the back,” Larson said.

Marcinko Speaks

Dr. David E. Marcinko MBADr. David E. Marcinko MBA MEd CPHQ, a physician and [former] certified financial planner] and founder of the more specific program for physician-focused fiduciary financial advisors and consultants www.CertifiedMedicalPlanner.org, sees another common mistake that wreaks havoc with a physician’s retirement plans – divorce.

He said clients come to him “looking to invest in the next Google or Facebook, and yet they will get divorced two or three times, and they’ll be whacked 50 percent of their net income each time. It just doesn’t make sense.”

Marcinko practiced medicine for 16 years until about 10 years ago, when he sold his practice and ambulatory surgical center to a public company, re-schooled and retired. Then, his second career in financial planning and investment advising began. “I’m a doctor who went to business school about 20 years ago, before it was in fashion. Much to my mother’s chagrin, by the way,” he quipped. Marcinko has written 27 books about practice management, hospital administration and business, physician finances, risk management, retirement planning and practice succession. He’s the founder of the Georgia-based Institute of Medical Business Advisors Inc.

ECON

Succession Planning for Doctors

Succession planning, Marcinko said, ideally should begin five years before retirement – and even earlier if possible. When assisting a client with succession, Marcinko examines two to three years of financial statements, balance sheets, cash-flow statements, statements of earnings, and profit and loss statements, yet he said “the $50,000 question” remains: How does a doctor find someone suited to take over his or her life’s work? “We are pretty much dead-set against the practice broker, the third-party intermediary, and are highly in favor of the one-on-one mentor philosophy,” Marcinko explained.

“There is more than enough opportunity to befriend or mentor several medical students or interns or residents or fellows that you might feel akin to, and then develop that relationship over the years.” He said third-party brokers “are like real-estate agents, they want to make the sale”; thus, they aren’t as concerned with finding a match that will ensure a smooth transition.

The only problem with the mentoring strategy, Marcinko acknowledged, is that mentoring takes time, and that’s a commodity most physicians have too little of. Nonetheless, succession is too important not to invest the time necessary to ensure it goes off without a hitch.

Times are different today because the economy doesn’t allow physicians to gradually bow out of a practice. “My overhead doesn’t go down if I go part-time. SO, if I want to sell my practice for a premium price, I need to keep the numbers up,” he noted.

Assessment

Dr. Marcinko’s retirement investment advice – and it’s the advice he gives to anyone – is to invest 15-20 percent of your income in an Vanguard indexed mutual fund or diversified ETF for the next 30-50 years. “We all want to make it more complicated than it really is, don’t we?” he said.

QUESTION: What makes a physician moving toward retirement different from most others employees or professionals? Marcinko’s answer was simple: “They probably had a better shot in life to have a successful retirement, and if they don’t make it, shame on them. That’s the difference.”

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But …. enough about me!

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Dr. David Edward Marcinko MBA

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DEM 2013

AMA News:

Goodwill hunting – what’s your medical practice worth?

AMA News.Valuation.Marcinko

Best practices can help hospitals in recession

Arkansas Medical News:

Arkansas Medical News Interviews Dr. Marcinko

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Morgan Stanley Peddled Security Its Own Employee Called ‘Nuclear Holocaust’

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An Explosive Charge
By Jesse Eisinger Pro Publica
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A new lawsuit suggests employees at Morgan Stanley understood the housing market was in trouble and exploited that knowledge to bet against securities and unload garbage investments on the unsuspecting.

The bank denies wrongdoing.

Bank

Link: Explosive Charge: Morgan Stanley Peddled Security Its Own Employee Called ‘Nuclear Holocaust’

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A Brief Interview on Investing with Dr. David E. Marcinko MBA CMP™

On Opportunities for Risk Tolerant and Investment Minded Physicians

Sponsored by: www.CertifiedMedicalPlanner.org

By Hope R. Hetico RN MHA [Managing Editor]

This is my second interview with ME-P Founder and Publisher-in-Chief, David Edward Marcinko. Our first formal interview was during the Thanksgiving weekend of 2007. I caught up with him recently on client engagements, in Chicago, Illinois.

And, while he may not always be right; he is never equivocal with his opinions, and is always passionate about them.

HETICO: Well, David, what have you been up to since our last interview?

MARCINKO: The usual; writing, editing, teaching, speaking, consulting engagements and servicing private clients. All noted on this blog forum, of course.

HETICO: So, refresh our readers, and tell us a little bit about yourself

MARCINKO: A doctor, surgeon, and bone and joint lower extremity specialist by training, I took down my medical shingle in 2000 and sold my ASC to become a full-time health 2.0 consultant that never looked back. I’ve also got an MBA degree in marketing and micro-economics, and was a registered BD representative, RIA rep, insurance agent, Series #7, #63 and #65 licensee and, certified financial planner for almost 15 years before eschewing them all. I then started the www.CertifiedMedicalPlanner.com online educational and certification program for physician focused financial advisors and fiduciary medical management consultants. My CV, fingerprints and DNA, are all over this e-publication.

HETICO: So, back on point. What is your investment style and where do you see market opportunities today?

MARCINKO: I am a non-conformist and contrarian by nature; when others zig; I zag. I use ETFs and index funds, and as a strategic investor have a personal ten-year time line, at least. I like cash-on-hand, too.

HETICO: I know you like international investing; when did this proclivity start.

MARCINKO: I did very well investing in long term Federal and state municipal bonds back in the early 1980’s. This was against the investment advice of everyone I spoke to at the time; except my mother – a banker. Interest rates were sky-high, so listening to her was a no-brainer. I then saw an international opportunity right after the Asian contagion crisis back in 1997-98. I lost a bit with Japan, but more than made up most everywhere else. I’m still underweighted in the US, and must admit, I missed the bottom-feeder boat domestically back during the flash-crash of 2008.

HETICO: How have your international products changed over time?

MARCINKO: I used ADRs and index funds, at first, mostly Vanguard. But, I moved to ETFs as they emerged. I stay away from individual foreign or international stocks

HETICO: What kind of foreign assets do you prefer?

MARCINKO: Equities strictly; no foreign bonds or currencies.

HETICO: What about gold?

MARCINKO: Nope, missed the run-up, but I hate commodities based solely on the supple-demand curve.

HETICO: What parts of the world do you see as hot investing opportunities, right now?

MARCINKO: The Middle-East, and Singapore which provide higher dividend returns than most US equities. I’m patiently waiting for Europe to implode.

HETICO: What kind of research do you do?

MARCINKO: I read everything written and online, but try to follow the massive macro-economic trends and demographics. For example, now is not the time to invest in US bonds as IRs are near historical lows, and cannot go much further, I think.

HETICO: Any other domestic opportunities?

MARCINKO: Not that I can see. Horde cash! Maybe domestic equity based REITs with the real estate lows.

HETICO: How often do you adjust your portfolio?

MARCINKO: Every 3-5 years I might buy if the opportunity [screams] presents itself. Generally, we never sell.

HETICO: Do you believe in asset allocation and balanced investment portfolios?

MARCINKO: No. It is the surest way I know to mediocre returns.

HETICO: Do you believe in dollar cost averaging?

MARCINKO: No, it is a theoretical artifice – merely a mechanism to “keep you in the game” so that mutual fund companies, SBs and BDs, RIAs, IAs and FAs can earn commissions, trails, 12b-1 fees and/or AUM percentage revenues, etc. It gets and keeps [your] money rolling into their coffers. And,  it smooths out their cash flow. Remember, DCA is a no brainer – and it is fit for those with no brains.

HETICO: What is your forecast for 2012?

MARCINKO: I’m with Bill Gross, who runs the world’s biggest bond fund at PIMCO, and thinks the global economy and financial markets are at risk in 2012.

HETICO: If you and Bill are correct, what will you do?

MARCINKO: Yawn!

HETICO: Who is your favorite health economist?

MARCINKO: Noble prize winner Ken Arrow PhD, of course. He is the god-father of the industry.

HETICO: Where do you see yourself in 5 or 10 years; or thereafter?

MARCINKO: Well, in five years my daughter will be out of college. In ten years, I see myself doing the same things I do now. And, I just love my engaged clients at: www.MedicalBusinessAdvisors.com Then, perhaps some private philanthropy work.

HETICO: Who is your financial investing hero?

MARCINKO: My colleague and former hedge fund manager Mike Burry, MD.

Link: https://medicalexecutivepost.com/2010/03/24/video-on-hedge-fund-manager-michael-burry-md/

Assessment

Thank you; David!

Conclusion

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How Investment Professionals Evaluate Time Periods for Portfolio Comparison

On Capturing a Full Range of Market Environments

By Dr. David Edward Marcinko MBA, CMP™

[Publisher-in-Chief]

What is the appropriate time period for portfolio growth comparison? 

Performance measurements over trailing calendar periods, such as the last one, three, five or 10 years, are often used in the mutual fund and investment industry.  While three-to-five-to-ten years may seem like a long enough time for an investment strategy to show its value added, these time periods will often be dominated by either a bull or bear market environment, and/or a large cap or small cap dominated environment, etc. 

Market Cycles

One way to lessen the possibility of the market environment biasing a performance comparison is to focus on a time period that captures full range of market environments; a market cycle. 

The market cycle is defined as a market peak, with high investor confidence and speculation, through a market trough, in which investor bullishness and speculation subsides, to the next market peak. 

A bull market is a market environment of generally rising prices and investor optimism.  While there have been several definitions of a bear market based upon market returns (e.g., a decline of –15 percent or more, two consecutive negative quarters, etc.), the idea implied by its name is a period of high pessimism and sustained losses. 

Thus, one returns-based rule-of-thumb that can be used to identify a bear market is a negative return in the market that takes at least four quarters to overcome. 

http://www.amazon.com/Financial-Planning-Handbook-Physicians-Advisors/dp/0763745790/ref=sr_1_1?ie=UTF8&s=books&qid=1276795609&sr=1-1

Assessment

The stock market has been booming lately. Up almost 100% since March 2009, after being down almost 50%. And so, perhaps this is a good time to re-evaluate the performance of your investment portfolio[s].

And so, by examining performance over a full market cycle, there is a greater likelihood that short-term market dislocations like the “flash crash” of 2009 will not bias the performance comparison.

Conclusion

Your thoughts and comments on this ME-P are appreciated. What is your time period for portfolio evaluation? Feel free to review our top-left column, and top-right sidebar materials, links, URLs and related websites, too. Then, subscribe to the ME-P. It is fast, free and secure.

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Healthcare Organizations: www.HealthcareFinancials.com

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Introducing Dr. Joshua Goldman MBA

Meet Our Newest ME-P “Thought-Leader”

By Ann Miller RN, MHA

Joshua Goldman, MD, MBA is a resident physician at the University of California, Los Angeles pursuing post-graduate training in family medicine with subsequently plans to complete a Sports Medicine fellowship. He attended graduate school at the University of Southern California, completing his Medical Degree at the Keck School of Medicine concurrent with his Master of Business Administration at the Marshall School of Business. He is functioning as the Director of Strategy for Insight Oncology, an oncology consulting and management firm.

USC Days

While at USC, Josh served as the student body President of the Keck School of Medicine, a teaching assistant in the department of Anatomy and Physiology and held board positions at the USC Stevens Institute for Innovation, the Biomedical Association at the Marshall School of Business, and the Curriculum Committee at the Keck School of Medicine. He was selected as the Keck School of Medicine Student Teacher of the Year for 2009-2010. He has also served as the Vice President of the American Cancer Society at the University of California, Los Angeles. He completed an internship with the Cedars-Sinai Orthopedic Center Trauma Team and with the University of Southern California Athletic Department’s Team Physicians, working with the USC Trojan Football team during their summer training camp.

Undergraduate Days

Joshua received his Bachelor of Science degree from the University of California, Los Angeles in 2005 graduating Magna cum Laude and Phi Beta Kappa with a major in Psychobiology and a minor in English Literature. While at UCLA, Josh was a member of the men’s crew team.

A PE Devotee’

Joshua is very physically active, weight training or running daily. He is also an aspiring tri-athlete, training both on a bike and in the water recently. He also enjoys playing football, tennis, beach volleyball and sailing in his free time in between his many home improvement projects.

Website

Josh is also the Founder and CEO of: www.MyHouseCallMD.com

Conclusion

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Disorganization at Banks

Causing Mistaken Foreclosures

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By Paul Kiel, ProPublica – May 4, 2010 9:20 pm EDT

Millions of people face losing their homes in the continuing foreclosure crisis, but homeowners often have more than the struggling economy and slumping house prices to worry about: Disorganization within the big banks that service mortgages has made a bad problem worse.

ProPublica is matching local journalists with homeowners having trouble getting loan mods.

Are you a homeowner with a story to tell?
Are you a reporter and want to cover it?

Sometimes the communication breakdown within the banks is so complete that it leads to premature or mistaken foreclosures. Some homeowners, with the help of an attorney or housing counselor, have eventually been able to reverse a foreclosure. Others have lost their homes.

“We believe in many cases people are losing their homes when they should not have,” said Kevin Stein, associate director of the California Reinvestment Coalition, which counts dozens of nonprofits that work with homeowners among its members.

In the worst breakdowns, banks — and other companies that service loans — actually work at cross-purposes, with one arm of the company foreclosing on the home while the other offers help. Servicers say such mistakes are rare and result from the high volume of defaults and foreclosures.

The problems happen even among servicers participating in the administration’s $75 billion foreclosure-prevention program [1]. Servicers operating under the year-old program are forbidden from auctioning someone’s home while a modification decision is pending. It happens anyway.

Consumer advocates say the lapses continue because they go unpunished. “We’ve had too much of the carrot, and we need a stick,” Stein says. The Treasury Department has yet to penalize a servicer for breaking the program’s rules. The program provides federal subsidies to encourage modifications.

Treasury officials overseeing the program say they’re aware of the problems and have moved to fix them. But some states are going further to protect homeowners, with recent rules that stop the foreclosure process if the homeowner requests a modification.

Many homeowners, seeing no other option, have gone to court to reclaim their homes. At least 50 homeowners have recently filed lawsuits alleging the servicer foreclosed with a loan mod request pending or even while they were on a payment plan.

Homeowners have long waits for help

In good times, banks and other servicers — Bank of America is the biggest, followed by Chase and Wells Fargo — were known mainly to homeowners simply as where they sent their monthly mortgage payments. But the companies have been deluged over the past couple of years by requests for help from millions of struggling homeowners.

Homeowners commonly wait six months for an answer on a loan mod application. The federal program for encouraging loan mods includes a three-month trial period, after which servicers are supposed to decide whether to make the modifications permanent. But some homeowners have waited as long as 10 months [2] for a final answer.

Communication breakdowns occur because of the way the servicers are structured. One division typically deals with modifications and another with foreclosures. Servicers also hire a local trustee or attorney to actually pursue foreclosure.

“Often they just simply don’t communicate with each other,” said Laurie Maggiano, the Treasury official in charge of setting policy for the modification program. Such problems were particularly bad last summer, in the first few months of the program, she said. “Basically, you have the right hand at the mortgage company not knowing what the left hand is doing,” said Mark Pearce, North Carolina’s deputy commissioner of banks. Communication glitches and mistakes are “systemic, more than anecdotal” among mortgage servicers, he said.

“We’ve had cases where we’ve informed the mortgage company that they’re about to foreclose on someone.” The experience for the homeowner, he said, can be “Kafkaesque.”

“We’re all human, and the servicers are overworked and trying their best,” said Vicki Vidal, of the Mortgage Bankers Association. She said foreclosure errors are rare, particularly if struggling homeowners are prompt in contacting their servicer.

The Human Face

Frances Gomez, of Tempe, Ariz., lived in her house for over 30 years. Three years ago, she refinanced it with Countrywide, now part of Bank of America, for nearly $300,000. The home’s value has declined dramatically, said Gomez, who put some of the money from the refinancing into her hair salon.

Last year, the recession forced her to close her shop. Gomez fell behind on her mortgage, and after striking out with a company that promised to work with Bank of America to get her a loan mod, she learned in December that her home was scheduled for foreclosure.

So Gomez applied herself. She twice succeeded in getting Bank of America to postpone the sale date and said she was assured it would not happen until her application was reviewed. Gomez had opened a smaller salon and understood there was a good chance she would qualify.

She was still waiting in March when a Realtor, representing the new owner of her home, showed up. Her house had sold at auction — for less than half of what Gomez owed. “They don’t give you an opportunity,” she said. “They just go and do it with no warning.”

It’s not supposed to work that way.

Federal Programs

Under the federal program, which requires servicers to follow a set of guidelines for modifications, servicers must give borrowers a written denial before foreclosing. When Gomez called Bank of America about the sale, she said she was told there was a mistake but nothing could be done. She did get a denial notice [3] — some three weeks after the house was sold and just days before she was evicted.

“I just want people to know what they’re doing,” Gomez, now living with family members, said.

After being contacted by ProPublica, Bank of America reviewed Gomez’s case. Bank spokesman Rick Simon acknowledged that Gomez might not have been told her house would be sold and that the bank made a mistake in denying Gomez, because it did not take into account the income from her new salon business. Simon said a Bank of America representative would seek to negotiate with the new owner of Gomez’s house to see if the sale could be unwound.

Simon said the bank regrets when such mistakes happen due to the “very high volume” of cases and that any errors in Gomez’s case were “inadvertent.”

Timeline: How Michael Hill Almost Lost His Home [4]

Even avoiding a mistaken sale can also be a stressful process.

One day in February, a man approached Ron Bermudez of Emeryville, Calif., in front of his house and told him his home would be sold in a few hours. This came as a shock to Bermudez; Bank of America had told him weeks prior that he’d been approved for a trial modification and the papers would soon arrive. He made a panicked phone call to an attorney, who was able to make sure there was no auction.

Last November, Michael Hill of Lexington, S.C., finally got the call he’d been waiting for. Congratulations, a rep from JPMorgan Chase told him, your trial mortgage modification is approved. Hill’s monthly payment, around $900, would be nearly halved.

Except there was a problem. Chase had foreclosed on Hill’s home a month earlier, and his family was just days away from eviction.

“I listened to her and then I just said, ‘Well, that sounds good,’” recalled Hill, who is married and has two children. “‘Tell me how we’re going to do this, seeing as how you sold the house.’” That, he found out, was news to Chase.

Hill was able to avoid eviction — for now. Chase reversed the sale by paying the man who’d bought the home an extra $19,500 on top of the $86,000 [5] he’d paid at the auction.

After the mistaken foreclosure, he began the trial modification last December. He made those payments, but two months after his trial period was supposed to end, Hill is still waiting for a final answer from Chase.

The miscommunications have continued. He received a letter in January saying that he’d been approved for a permanent modification, but he was then told he’d received it in error.

His family remains partially packed, ready to move should the modification not go through. “I’m on pins and needles every time someone’s knocking on the door or calling,” he said.

Christine Holevas, a Chase spokeswoman, said that Chase had “agreed with Hill’s request to rescind the foreclosure” and was “now reviewing his loan for permanent modification.” She said Chase services “more than 10 million mortgages — the vast majority without a hitch.”

HOPE Hotline

To contest a foreclosure under the federal program, Maggiano, the Treasury official, said a homeowner should call the HOPE Hotline, 888-995-HOPE, a Treasury Department-endorsed hotline staffed by housing counselors. Those counselors can escalate the case if the servicer still won’t correct the problem, she said.

That escalation process has saved “a number” of homeowners from being wrongfully booted out of their homes, Maggiano said. Hill, the South Carolina homeowner, is an example of someone helped by the HOPE Hotline.

Of course, the homeowner must know about the hotline to call it. Gomez, the Arizona homeowner who lost her home to foreclosure, said she’d never heard of it.

Many homeowner advocates say the government’s effort has been largely ineffective at resolving problems with servicers.

“I uniformly hear from attorneys and counseling advocates on the ground that the HOPE Hotline simply parrots back what the servicers have said,” said Alys Cohen, an attorney with the National Consumer Law Center. Cohen said she’d voiced her concerns with Treasury officials, who indicated they’d make improvements.

Bank

New rules to offer more protection

Under the current rules for the federal program, servicers have been barred from conducting a foreclosure sale if the homeowner requested a modification, but are allowed to push along the process, even set a sale date. That allows them to foreclose more quickly if they determine the homeowner doesn’t qualify for a modification.

As a result, a homeowner might get a modification offer one day and a foreclosure notice the next. As of March, servicers were pursuing foreclosure on 1.8 million residences, according to LPS Applied Analytics.

Maggiano, the Treasury official, said that’s been confusing for homeowners. Some “just got discouraged and gave up.”

New rules issued by the Treasury in March say the servicer must first give the homeowner a shot at a modification before beginning the process that leads to foreclosure.

They also require the servicer to adopt new policies to prevent mishaps. For instance, the servicer will be required to provide a written certification to its attorney or trustee that the homeowner does not qualify for the federal program before the house can be sold.

Maggiano said the changes resulted from visits to the servicers’ offices last December that allowed Treasury officials to “much better understand (their) inner workings.”

The rules, however, don’t take effect until June. Nor do they apply to hundreds of thousands of homeowners seeking a modification for whom the process leading to foreclosure has already begun. And Treasury has yet to set any penalties for servicers who don’t follow the rules.

Maggiano said Treasury’s new rule struck a balance to help homeowners who were responsive to servicer communications to stay out of foreclosure while not introducing unnecessary delays for servicers. Some borrowers don’t respond at all to offers of help from the servicers until they’re faced with foreclosure, she said.

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States Differ

Some states, such as North Carolina, have recently gone further to delay moving toward foreclosure if a homeowner requests a modification. State regulators there passed a law that requires a servicer to halt the process if a homeowner requests a modification.

Pearce, the North Carolina official, said the rule was prompted by the delays homeowners have been facing and puts the burden on the servicers to expeditiously review the request. “They’re in total control.”

Stopping the process not only removes the possibility of a sudden foreclosure, he said, but also stops the accumulation of fees, which build up and can add thousands to the homeowner’s debt as the servicer moves toward foreclosure.

In California, state Sen. Mark Leno, a Democrat from San Francisco, is pushing a bill that would do something similar. The servicers “should be working a lot harder to keep homeowners in their home,” he said.

Assessment

Original article: http://www.propublica.org/feature/disorganization-at-banks-causing-mistaken-foreclosures-050410

Conclusion

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FINANCE: Financial Planning for Physicians and Advisors
INSURANCE: Risk Management and Insurance Strategies for Physicians and Advisors

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Video on Hedge Fund Manager Michael Burry MD

In The Subprime of His Life – My Story

By Dr. David Edward Marcinko MBA, CMP™

[Editor-in-Chief]

I am a long time fan of financial industry journalist Michael Lewis [Liars’ Poker, Moneyball and others] who just released a new book. The Big Short is a chronicle of four players in the subprime mortgage market who had the foresight [and testosterone] to short the diciest mortgage deals: Steve Eisner of FrontPoint, Greg Lippmann at Deutsche Bank, the three partners at Cornwall Capital, and most indelibly, Wall Street outsider Michael Burry MD of Scion Capital.

They all walked away from the disaster with pockets full of money and reputations as geniuses.

About Mike

Now, I do not know the first three folks, but I do know a little something about my colleague Michael Burry MD; he is indeed a very smart guy. Mike is a nice guy too, who also has a natural writing style that I envy [just request and read his quarterly reports for a stylized sample]. He gave me encouragement and insight early in my career transformation – from doctor to “other”.

And, he confirmed my disdain for the traditional financial services [retail sales] industry, Wall Street and their registered representatives and ‘training’ system, and sad broker-dealer ethos [suitability versus fiduciary accountability] despite being a hedge fund manager himself.

I mentioned him in my book: “Insurance and Risk Management Strategies” [For Physicians and their Advisors].

http://www.amazon.com/Insurance-Management-Strategies-Physicians-Advisors/dp/0763733423/ref=sr_1_2?ie=UTF8&s=books&qid=1269254153&sr=1-2

He ultimately helped me eschew financial services organizations, “certifications”, “designations” and ”colleges”, and their related SEO rules, SEC regulations and policy wonks; and above all to go with my gut … and go it alone!

And so, I rejected my certified financial planner [marketing] designation status as useless for me, and launched the www.CertifiedMedicalPlanner.org on-line educational program for physician focused financial advisors and management consultants interested in the healthcare space … who wish to be fiduciaries.

And I thank Mike for the collegial good will. By the way, Mike is not a CPA, nor does he posses an MBA or related advanced degree or designation. He is not a middle-man FA. He is a physician. Unlike far too many other industry “financial advisors” he is not a lemming.

IOW: We are not salesman. We are out-of-the-box thinkers, innovators and contrarians by nature. www.MedicalBusinessAdvisors.com

From a Book Review

According to book reviewer Michael Osinski, writing in the March 22-29 issue of Businessweek.com, Lewis is at his best working with characters and Burry is rendered most vividly.

A loner from a young age, in part because he has a glass eye that made it difficult to look people in the face, Burry excelled at topics that required intense and isolated concentration. Originally, investing was just a hobby while he pursued a career in medicine. As a resident neurosurgeon at Stanford Hospital in the late 1990s, Burry often stayed up half the night typing his ideas onto a message board. Unbeknownst to him, professional money managers began to read and profit from his freely dispensed insight, and a hedge fund eventually offered him $1 million for a quarter of his investment firm, which consisted of a few thousand dollars from his parents and siblings. Another fund later sent him $10 million”.

“Burry’s obsession with finding undervalued companies eventually led him to realize that his own home in San Jose, Calif., was grossly overpriced, along with houses all over the country. He wrote to a friend: “A large portion of the current [housing] demand at current prices would disappear if only people became convinced that prices weren’t rising. The collateral damage is likely to be orders of magnitude worse than anyone now considers.” This was in 2003.

“Through exhaustive research, Burry understood that subprime mortgages would be the fuse and that the bonds based on these mortgages would start to blow up within as little as two years, when the original “teaser” rates expired. But Burry did something that separated him from all the other housing bears—he found an efficient way to short the market by persuading Goldman Sachs (GS) to sell him a CDS against subprime deals he saw as doomed. A unique feature of these swaps was that he did not have to own the asset to insure it, and over time, the trade in these contracts overwhelmed the actual market in the underlying bonds”.

“By June 2005, Goldman was writing Burry CDS contracts in $100 million lots, “insane” amounts, according to Burry. In November, Lippmann contacted Burry and tried to buy back billions of dollars of swaps that his bank had sold. Lippmann had noticed a growing wave of subprime defaults showing up in monthly remittance reports and wanted to protect Deutsche Bank from potentially massive losses. All it would take to cause major pain, Lippmann and his analysts deduced, was a halt in price appreciation for homes. An actual fall in prices would bring a catastrophe. By that time, Burry was sure he held winning tickets; he politely declined Lippmann’s offer”

And the rest, as they say, is history.

Link: http://www.businessweek.com/magazine/content/10_12/b4171094664065.htm

My Story … Being a Bit like Mike

I first contacted Mike, by phone and email, more than a decade ago. His hedge fund, Scion Capital, had no employees at the time and he outsourced most of the front and back office activities to concentrate on position selection and management. Early investors were relatives and a few physicians and professors from his medical residency days. Asset gathering was a slosh, indeed. And, in a phone conversation, I remember him confirming my impressions that doctors were not particularly astute investors. For him, they generally had sparse funds to invest as SEC “accredited investors” and were better suited for emerging tax advantaged mutual funds. ETFs were not significantly on the radar screen, back then, and index funds were considered unglamorous. No, his target hedge-fund audience was Silicon Valley.

And, much like his value-hero Warren Buffett [also a Ben Graham and David Dodd devotee], his start while from the doctor space, did not derive its success because of them.

Moreover, like me, he lionized the terms “value investing”, “margin of safety” and “intrinsic value”.

Co-incidentally, as a champion of the visually impaired, I was referred to him by author, attorney and blogger Jay Adkisson www.jayadkisson.com Jay is an avid private pilot having earned his private pilot’s license after losing an eye to cancer.

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Mike again re-entered my cognitive space while doing research for the first edition of our successful print book: “Financial Planning Handbook for Physicians and Advisors” and while searching for physicians who left medicine for alternate careers!

In fact, he wrote the chapter on hedge funds in our print journal and thru the third book edition before becoming too successful for such mundane stuff. We are now in our fourth edition, with a fifth in progress once the Obama administration stuff [healthcare and financial services industry “reform” and new tax laws] has been resolved

http://www.amazon.com/Financial-Planning-Handbook-Physicians-Advisors/dp/0763745790/ref=sr_1_1?ie=UTF8&s=books&qid=1269211056&sr=1-1

Assessment

News: Dr. Burry appeared on 60 Minutes Sunday March 14th, 2010. His activities with Scion Capital are portrayed in Michael Lewis’s newest book, The Big Short.  An excerpt is available in the April 2010 issue of Vanity Fair magazine, and at VanityFair.com 

Video of Dr. Burry: http://www.cbsnews.com/video/watch/?id=6298040n&tag=contentBody;housing

Video of Dr. Burry: http://www.cbsnews.com/video/watch/?id=6298038n&tag=contentBody;housing

PS: Michael Osinski retired from Wall Street and now runs Widow’s Hole Oyster Co. in Greenport, NY http://www.widowsholeoysters.com

And, our www.MedicalBusinessAdvisors.com related books can be reviewed here: http://www.amazon.com/s/ref=nb_sb_noss?url=search-alias%3Dstripbooks&field-keywords=david+marcinko

Assessment

Visit Scion Capital LLC and tell us what you think http://www.scioncapital.com.

And to Mike himself, I say “Mazel Tov” and congratulations? I am sure you will be a good and faithful steward. The greatest legacy one can have is in how they treated the “little people.” You are a champ. Call me – let’s do lunch. And, I am still writing: www.BusinessofMedicalPractice.com for the conjoined space we both LOVE.

Conclusion

Your thoughts and comments on this ME-P are appreciated. Feel free to review our top-left column, and top-right sidebar materials, links, URLs and related websites, too. Then, subscribe to the ME-P. It is fast, free and secure.

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[PHYSICIAN FOCUSED FINANCIAL PLANNING AND RISK MANAGEMENT COMPANION TEXTBOOK SET]

  Risk Management, Liability Insurance, and Asset Protection Strategies for Doctors and Advisors: Best Practices from Leading Consultants and Certified Medical Planners™  Comprehensive Financial Planning Strategies for Doctors and Advisors: Best Practices from Leading Consultants and Certified Medical Planners™

[Dr. Cappiello PhD MBA] *** [Foreword Dr. Krieger MD MBA]

***

A Doctor – Economist’s Solution for Health Reform

My Laundry Wish List for all US Healthcare Stakeholders

By Dr. David Edward Marcinko; MBA, CMP™

[Publisher-in-Chief]Fox News

As President Obama speaks, prods and cajoles, and Congress returns to session to begin work again on HR 3200-3400 or similar, I believe that for any healthcare reform effort to work successfully for the American people – not necessarily be adopted – we need to consider the following in no particular prioritized order:

  • Insurance portability uncoupled from patient employment
  • Health insurance regional exchanges with inter-state purchase competition
  • Doctor, drug, DME and hospital pricing and payment transparency for HSAs, and all of us
  • Modifying or eliminating AMA owned CPT Codes®; a huge money maker for them
  • Abandoning ala’ carte medicine for values-based outcomes
  • Reduce JCAHO influence; encourage competition from Norwegian Det Norske Veritas [DNV]
  • Reduce big-pharma influence thru-out the entire medical education, career and care pipeline
  • End DTC advertising from big-pharma
  • Promote wholesale drug purchase competition, MC bidding and generic drugs
  • Encourage evidence-based medicine, not expert-based medicine
  • Less pay for medical specialists with a  re-evaluation of the hospitalist concept
  • Advance the dying art of physical diagnosis, teach and embrace Paretto’s 80/20 rule for clinic issues
  • Reduce lab test, diagnostic imaging and testing
  • Encourage private 24/7/365 medical offices and clinics; and on-site and retail clinics
  • Abandon P4P, medical homes and disease management ideas
  • Give more economic skin-in-game to patients relative to health benchmarks
  • Concretize the “never-event” prohibitions and include a list of patient health responsibilities
  • More pay for primary care docs and internists
  • Adopt digital records and cloud computing for patients
  • Phase in true eHRs incrementally; and abandon CCHIT for open source SaaS
  • Promote Health 2.0 social media.
  • Augmented scope of practice, numbers and pay for NPs and DNPs, etc
  • Reduce pay for CRNAs and increase it for staff RNs
  • Develop step down triage and treatment units to reduce the number of full service ERs
  • Increase medical, osteopathic, dental, optometric and podiatric medical school classes
  • Increased practice scope for dentists, podiatrists and optometrists
  • Make some sort of catastrophic HI mandatory, much like auto insurance for all
  • End pre-existing conditon health insurance contract clauses
  • More choice  and end of life control for the terminally ill patient
  • Increase marketplace competition with fewer political and financial “externalities”.
  • Teach basic healthcare topics in school and encourage physical exercise
  • Health and insurance education should be, but is not, the “answer” for Americans
  • Protect borders and discourage undocumented illegals
  • Adopt medical malpractice tort reform
  • Make all stakeholders fiduciaries 
  • No public “option” unless you like food stamps, Section 8 housing, public transportation and schools
  • Budget deficit neutrality
  • Joe Wilson is both a bright guy – and a jerk
  • Slow down!

Assessment

Recently, while in the Baltimore/Washing area, I was asked by several reporters to opine on the healthcare debate; which I did so freely having never been known as the shy type. And, regular readers will note that many of these items have been used as posts or comments on this ME-P. Unfortunately, my “laundry list” interview was pre-empted by two local but boisterous town-hall meetings with respective passionate politicians. It was redacted no doubt, but never broadcast. Thus, I missed the potential for my “five minutes” of fame. C’est la vive!

Conclusion

There you have it; direct and straight forward. And so, your thoughts and comments on this Medical Executive-Post are appreciated. Feel free to review our top-left column, and top-right sidebar materials, links, URLs and related websites, too. Then, be sure to subscribe to the ME-P. It is fast, free and secure.

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Speaker: If you need a moderator or speaker for an upcoming event, Dr. David E. Marcinko; MBA – Publisher-in-Chief of the Executive-Post – is available for seminar or speaking engagements. Contact: MarcinkoAdvisors@msn.com 

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Borges versus Kvedar Video eHR Debate

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The Great HIT Debate

[By Staff Reporters]Boxing Gloves

All ME-P subscribers and readers are invited to watch a debate between Dr. Alberto Borges and Dr. Joseph Kvedar. In the original broadcast, by HCPLive, both participants were asked some very interesting questions about health information technology [HIT] when posed to them. And so, if you were unable to attend the live event, it is now re-broadcasted in podcast form for your review.

About Alberto A. Borges; MD

Al Borges is Founder and CEO of the MS Office eMR Project http://www.msofficeemrproject.com He is the project author, visionary and main content developer for the independent website. As a board certified physician, he practices oncology, hematology, and internal medicine in Arlington, Virginia. He is also a clinical professor at the George Washington University Medical School. Dr. Borges is a colleague and thought-leader for the ME-P

About Joseph C. Kvedar; MD

Joe Kvedar is the Founder and Director of the Center for Connected Health http://www.connected-health.org The Center is known for applying communications technology and online resources to increase access and improve the delivery of quality medical services and patient care outside of the traditional medical setting.  A division of Partners HealthCare; the Center for Connected Health works with Harvard Medical School-affiliated teaching hospitals, including Massachusetts General and Brigham and Women’s Hospitals. Dr. Kvedar is also a board-certified dermatologist and Associate Professor of Dermatology at Harvard Medical School

Podcast Link: http://www.hcplive.com/hcplive/great_debate

Assessment

Feel free to email questions, or to post follow-up comments, for all our viewers to consider and respond. The principals are asked to weigh-in, as well.

And the Winner is … ?

Conclusion

Your thoughts and comments on this ME-P are appreciated. Feel free to review our top-left column, and top-right sidebar materials, links, URLs and related websites, too. Then, subscribe to the ME-P. It is fast, free and secure.

Speaker: If you need a moderator or speaker for an upcoming event, Dr. David E. Marcinko; MBA – Publisher-in-Chief of the Medical Executive-Post – is available for seminar or speaking engagements. Contact: MarcinkoAdvisors@msn.com

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