UPDATE: The Markets, Crypto and Online Retailers

By Staff Reporters

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  • Markets: After booming stocks had their worst day of the year because of raging inflation, slowing economic growth, and a potential recession.
  • Crypto: Bitcoin and other major cryptos like ethereum also tumbled in the aftermath of the FOMC announcement. They’ve typically tracked the performance of growth stocks, which have gotten hammered on the prospect of higher interest rates.

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Almost every major online retailer reporting earnings with signs of a decline:

  • Wayfair shares cratered nearly 26% yesterday after announcing that its active customer count dropped 23.4% from a year ago.
  • Bed Bath & Beyond reported an 18% nosedive in online sales.
  • Etsy and eBay shares both dropped by double digits yesterday after giving weak guidance for the current quarter.
  • At least five senior executives from Meta’s fledgling e-commerce division have fled in the last six months.
  • Shopify shares plummeted about 15% on Thursday after posting much lower-than-expected earnings.

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UPDATE: The FOMC, Markets and Cinco deMayo

By Staff Reporters

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FOMC: The Federal Reserve approved a rare half-percentage-point interest rate increase and announced plans to shrink its $9 trillion asset portfolio starting next month in an effort to reduce inflation that is running at a four-decade high.

Markets: Stocks boomed after Fed Chair Jerome Powell spoke. Still, JPMorgan CEO Jamie Dimon pegged the probability of a recession at 33% and a “soft landing” (lower inflation, no recession) also at 33%.

And Lyft, the ride-hailing company lost nearly 30% of its value after its profit outlook came in below forecast. Uber tried to distance itself from its ailing rival, saying that it does not need to spend money recruiting drivers like Lyft does.

Cinco deMayo commemorates the defeat of French forces by the Mexican army at the Battle of Puebla in 1862, but its popularity jumped in the 1980s, when beer companies leveraged it in aggressive marketing campaigns. Now, Cinco de Mayo is a day for celebrating Mexican culture and, interestingly, it’s now more popular in the US than in Mexico.

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UPDATE: The Markets, Treasury Yields, Ukraine & the Week Ahead

By Staff Reporters

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  • Markets: US stocks rose for two straight weeks. Investors appear to be putting more emphasis on strong corporate earnings than all the uncertainty around the war in Ukraine and inflation.
  • Treasury: Yields climbed (in anticipation of higher interest rates), giving a lift to financial stocks.
  • Ukraine: Top Russian military officials signaled a change in approach to the war. They spoke about the “complete liberation” of the Donbas region in eastern Ukraine, which means Russia could potentially be pivoting from its initial goal of taking Ukraine’s biggest cities and toppling its government.
  • EARNING REPORTS THIS WEEK:
  • Monday: Earnings from Dave & Buster’s.
  • Tuesday: US consumer confidence; US Job Openings and Labor Turnover (JOLTS); earnings from Micron, Chewy, Lululemon and RH.
  • Wednesday: US ADP jobs report; US GDP for Q4 (third estimate); weekly crude oil inventories; earnings from BioNTech and Paychex.
  • Thursday: End of first quarter; US personal income and spending; US weekly jobless claims: earnings from Walgreens and Blackberry.
  • Friday: US jobs report; US ISM manufacturing.

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UPDATE: The Markets, Oil and T-Notes

By Staff Reporters

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MARKETS: Stocks rose for a fourth day in a row Friday, closing out their biggest weekly gain since November 2020. The S&P 500 added 1.2%, bringing its weekly gain to 6.2%. The NASDAQ climbed 2.1% and the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 0.8%. Investors have welcomed the long-expected pivot from the Federal Reserve from stimulating the economy to fighting inflation, which began this week with its first interest rate increase since 2018.

OIL: The price of oil remains above $100 a barrel as investors monitor the ongoing Russian invasion of Ukraine.

10 Year Treasury Note: The yield on the 10-year Treasury Note fell to 2.15%.

CITE: https://www.r2library.com/Resource/Title/082610254

WINTER: Today is the last day of winter.

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#3: The Six Commandments of Value Investing (Part 1)

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The Six Commandments of Value Investing (Part 1)

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EDITOR’S NOTE: Although it has been some time since speaking live with busy colleague Vitaliy Katsenelson CFA, I review his internet material frequently and appreciate this ME-P series contribution. I encourage all ME-P readers to do the same and consider his value investing insights carefully.

By Vitaliy Katsenelson, CFA

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The Six Commandments of Value Investing
3. The market is there to serve you, not the other way around.

Part 1
: The market is there to price stocks on a daily basis, but it doesn’t value them on a daily basis. In the long run (the yardstick here is years, not days or months) the market will value stocks, but in the short run stock price movements are random. 

Despite this randomness, the media will always find a rational explanation for a move. However, trying to understand randomness and predict stock movements in the short run is like trying to have an intelligent conversation with a two-year-old. It may be fun, but it will consume a lot of your time and energy, and the outcome is far from certain. 

Stock fluctuations should be looked upon as a natural and benign feature of the stock market, but only if you know what the asset is worth. To make Mr. Market serve us and not become its slave, here is what we do.

If we know a stock is worth $1, then if its price falls from 50 cents to 30 cents (a 40% decline), that’s a blessing for several reasons: The company can now buy back a lot more of its stock at lower prices, and we can add to our position. After all, it’s 40% cheaper. 

Here is the key, though: You have to make sure that what you thought was worth $1 is still worth $1.

To quote Mike Tyson, “Everyone has a plan till they get punched in the mouth.” How do you remain rational when Mr. Market has just smashed you in the face by repricing your $1 stock from 50 cents to 30 cents? Maybe Mr. Market is right and that company’s fair value was never really $1 but only 40 cents?

To remain rational, we focus on maximizing our Total IQ. I know we were not supposed to have math, especially this early in the book. But indulge me with this little equation: Total IQ = IQ x EQ (where EQ <=1)Before I explain I want to stress this point: Your IQ, EQ, and thus Total IQ will vary from stock to stock and from industry to industry.

Let’s start with IQ.

IQ – our intellectual capacity to analyze problems – will vary with the problem in front of us. Just as we breezed through some subjects in college and struggled with others, our ability to understand the current and future dynamics of various companies and industries will fluctuate as well. This is why we buy stocks that fall within our sphere of competence. We tend to stick with ones where our IQ is the highest.

As I have mentioned before but will continue to repeat: If investing were an exact science – a formulaic process by which you could (in a vacuum) constantly test and retest your hypotheses and repeat your results – then EQ, our emotional quotient, would be irrelevant.

If we were characters from Star Trek – with complete control over our emotions, like Mr. Spock, or lacking emotions entirely, like Lieutenant Commander Data – then our EQ wouldn’t matter. However, investing is not a science and we are humans. We have plenty of emotions, and thus EQ is a very important part of this equation.

Though we usually think about our capacity to analyze problems as being dependable and stable over time, it isn’t.

First, emotions distort probabilities. So, even if my intellectual capacity to analyze a problem is not impacted, my brain may be solving a distorted problem.

Second, my IQ is not constant, and my ability to process information effectively declines under emotional stress. I either lose the big picture or overlook important details. This dilemma is not unique to me; I’m sure it affects all of us to varying degrees.

A friend of mine who is a terrific investor, and who will remain nameless (though his name is George), once told me that he never invests in grocery store stocks because he can’t be rational when he holds them. If we spent some Freudian time with him, we’d probably discover that he experienced a traumatic childhood event at the grocery store (he may have been caught shoplifting a candy bar when he was eight), or he may have had a bad experience with a grocery stock early in his career. The reason for his problem is irrelevant, though. What is important is that he has realized that his high IQ will be impaired by his low EQ if he owns grocery stocks.

The higher my EQ is with regard to a particular company, the more likely my Total IQ will not degrade when things go wrong (or even when they go right). This is why in the little formula above, EQ cannot be greater than 1. In your most emotionally stable state (when EQ = 1), your Total IQ will equal your IQ.

There is a good reason why doctors don’t treat their own children: Their ability to be rational (properly weighing probabilities) may be severely compromised by their emotions. 

CITE: https://www.r2library.com/Resource/Title/082610254

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UPDATE: The Stock Markets and IRS Online Taxpayer ID

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By Staff Reporters

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MARKETS: The S&P 500 fell into a correction for the first time in two years, joining the NASDAQ Composite, as Russia sent troops into pro-Russian regions in Ukraine. The S&P 500 index ended down 1% at 4,304.76, below the correction level at 4,316.91, which would represent a 10% drop from its January 3rd record close. A correction is commonly defined by market technicians as a fall of at least 10% (but not greater than 20%) from a recent peak. The last time the S&P 500 entered a correction was February 27th 2020, when the market was being whipsawed by fears about the outbreak of the COVID pandemic.

And, this bearish market isn’t sparing 2021 winners like Home Depot, which fell the most in nearly two years after supply-chain bottlenecks squeezed its margins. HD was the Dow’s biggest gainer last year.

CITE: https://www.r2library.com/Resource/Title/0826102549

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IRS: According to a news release issued by the IRS, taxpayers now have the option to verify their identities during live, virtual interviews with agents. The agency stresses that no bio-metric data will be required for those interviews.

However, taxpayers once again have the option to verify their identity using ID.me’s facial recognition services. Addressing privacy concerns, the IRS says new requirements are in place to ensure that images provided will be deleted upon verification. That would apply to any new IRS accounts created and those where selfies have already been collected.

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MARKET UPDATE: Five Items to Watch this Upcoming Week

By Staff Reporters

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Markets: The stock market was closed for Martin Luther King Jr. Day. Maybe a day off is just what the market needs to score its first winning week of 2022. But … For many stocks, 2022 was a real bear of a year. More than 220 US-listed companies with a market cap of $10+ billion are down at least 20% from their peaks. And things are even worse in the tech-heavy NASDAQ, where 39% of companies have dropped at least half from their all-time highs.

Economy: A combo of Omicron disruptions, higher inflation, and shortages of everything has caused forecasters to lower their projections for economic growth this quarter. Analysts surveyed by the WSJ dropped their Q1 forecast to 3% annual growth from 4.2% back in October.

Banks and Bitcoin: Big Bank earnings underwhelm; retail sales fell; Bitcoin has significant outflows. https://www.msn.com/en-us/video/peopleandplaces/brn-sunday-big-bank-earnings-underwhelm-retail-sales-fell-bitcoin-has-significant-outflows/vi-AASPR74

China: World shares were mixed after China reported that its economy expanded at an 8.1% annual pace in 2021, though growth slowed to half that level in the last quarter. And, Paris, Frankfurt, Tokyo and Shanghai advanced while Hong Kong and Seoul declined.

5 ITEMS TO WATCH: https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/markets/top-5-things-to-watch-in-markets-in-the-week-ahead/ar-AASPAb5?li=BBnb7Kz

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Round-Up on MARKETS and MEDICINE: 2022

By Staff Reporters

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  • Stock Markets: The three major equity indexes begin 2022 near record highs after closing out their best 3-year performance since 1999. The top-performing S&P sectors: Energy, whose 48% annual gain was its best ever (thank you, soaring oil prices). Real estate was the second-best performing sector at 42%, while tech and financials both rose 33%. The biggest winner in the S&P was Devon Energy, which gained nearly 190%. Ford, Moderna, and nine others in the index more than doubled their stock price. Microsoft rose 51%, and Apple’s 34% gain has it sitting close to a $3 trillion market capitalization.
  • Covid Medicine: Omicron has caused a rapid explosion of Covid cases in the US—the 7-day rolling average of nearly 400,000 new cases on Saturday was more than double the number from one week before. With hospitalizations also ticking higher, officials are warning that health systems will be overloaded before the Omicron wave is expected to peak in mid-January. And, Dr. Anthony Fauci said yesterday that health officials are looking at adding a negative test requirement after five days of quarantine. Under existing guidance, you can emerge from isolation without showing a negative test.
  • CITE: https://www.r2library.com/Resource/Title/082610254

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UPDATE: Stock Markets and the Economy

By staff reporters

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Stock Markets and the Economy

UPDATES

By Staff Reporters

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  • Markets: Stocks stumbled yesterday as investors anxiously await an update from the Federal Reserve this afternoon. Uber shares bucked the trend after CEO Dara Khosrowshahi said the company had its “best week ever” for overall gross bookings, which encompasses its ride-sharing and delivery units.
  • Economy: The Fed will make a big announcement today about its inflation-fighting strategy. Fresh data released yesterday—showing that producer prices rose at their fastest pace on record—will put even more pressure on the central bank to wind down its stimulus measures quickly and chart out a plan to hike interest rates.
  • CITE: https://www.r2library.com/Resource/Title/082610254

Chained CPI: https://medicalexecutivepost.com/2012/12/21/what-chained-cpi-could-mean-for-social-security/

FED UPDATE: https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/markets/fed-chair-jerome-powell-to-confirm-hawkish-turn-tee-up-faster-taper-2022-rate-hikes/ar-AARPZAW?li=BBnb7Kz

SUMMERS SPEAKS: https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/markets/summers-says-fed-will-struggle-to-engineer-soft-landing-as-he-frets-about-spontaneous-deflating-in-markets/ar-AARPA77?li=BBnb7Kz

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Economic Market Update

By Staff Reporters

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Stock Markets with Economic Update

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By staff reporters

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  • Markets: Stocks Gone Wild, the major indexes all bounced back from a bruising Wednesday, led by travel and hospitality stocks. Omicron has the markets looking like a sine wave this week.
  • Other updates: Congress passed a short-term spending bill to avoid a government shutdown this weekend. Plus, it’s jobs report day. Economists expect a meaty gain of 550,000 jobs in November, which would be the biggest number since July.

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Why the Stock Markets CRASHED TODAY [9/20/21]?

Feel Free to Add to the Our Growing List of Reasons!

BUT REMEMBER THAT CORRELATION IS NOT CAUSATION

CMP logo

BY DR. DAVID E. MARCINKO MBA CMP®

SPONSOR: http://www.CertifiedMedicalPlanner.org

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Chart: The Worst Stock Market Crashes of the 21st Century | Statista

THE LIST GOES ON

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China’s Evergrande Project Giant Contagion Jitters

Global and International Market Meltdowns

Crypto-Currency and Gas Price Tumbles

Depressed Automobile Rentals and Used Car Prices

Lowering US Treasury Bond Yields

US Debt Ceiling Risks and Looming Federal Shutdown

Travel Bans with Mask & Vaccine Debates During the Corono-Virus Pandemic

The $3.5 Trillion Dollar Senate Bill

Politics and Potential Federal Tax Law Changes

The National Park, Pacific North-West and California Wild Fires

The Weather, Flooding, Tornadoes, Hurricanes and Tropical Storms

Southern Border Immigration Crisis

A Dearth of Micro-Chips

Quadruple Witching Friday

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CORRECTION? https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/markets/the-odds-of-a-20-correction-in-stocks-are-rising-as-the-market-transitions-to-the-next-stage-of-its-cycle-morgan-stanley-warns/ar-AAODytg

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Feel free to add to our list.

Is this the start of a cyclical bear market?

MORE: https://medicalexecutivepost.com/2018/12/22/stocks-and-sectors-in-bear-territory/

RELATED: https://medicalexecutivepost.com/2016/03/18/doctors-and-bull-and-bear-markets/

MORE: https://medicalexecutivepost.com/2007/11/25/of-bull-and-bear-markets/

EVERGRANDE: https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/markets/evergrande-s-debt-crisis-has-jolted-the-stock-market-here-s-why-everyone-s-suddenly-worrying-about-china-s-2nd-largest-property-developer/ar-AAODW0q

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How Stock Markets Operate?

Markets 101: How to Read Stock Indexes and Securities

By Alex Hickey of Morning Brew

Everything you need to know about the 3 top U.S. equities indexes plus gold, oil, and Treasury notes

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LINK:

https://www.morningbrew.com/daily/stories/2020/10/19/markets-101-read-stock-indexes-securities?utm_source=morning_brew

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Comprehensive Financial Planning Strategies for Doctors and Advisors: Best Practices from Leading Consultants and Certified Medical Planners™

 

Stock Market Insights for May 2020

 

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WHAT IS A STOCK MARKET “CIRCUIT BREAKER?”

EXACTLY WHAT IS A STOCK MARKET “CIRCUIT BREAKER?”

cropped-dem

By Dr. David E. Marcinko MBA

Yesterday, within a few minutes of the open, the S&P dropped 7% triggering a Level 1 circuit breaker that paused trading for 15 minutes.

Had the S&P declined 13%, trading would’ve paused another 15 minutes.

Another 20% down and it would have closed.

HISTORY

  • Circuit breakers launched after 1987’s Black Monday when the Dow fell 22.6%.
  • In 2012, the markets closed because of Storm Sandy.
  • Rules were revamped in 2013 after failing to prevent 2010’s “flash crash.”

LINK: https://lnkd.in/eJNz355

And so, according to NYSE President Stacey Cunningham: “I’m seeing markets act normally. They react to uncertainty … they become more volatile.”

GOING FORWARD: Uncle Sam hasn’t yet enacted crisis measures like it did during the financial crisis. Regulators are more alert (take the Fed’s emergency rate cut and $50 billion infusion to its overnight lending). Banks appear to be in relatively good shape. Your thoughts and comments are appreciated.

Assessment: Your thoughts are appreciated.

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BUSINESS, FINANCE AND INSURANCE TEXTS FOR DOCTORS:

1 – https://lnkd.in/ebWtzGg

2 – https://lnkd.in/ezkQMfR

3 – https://lnkd.in/ewJPTJs

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Risk Management, Liability Insurance, and Asset Protection Strategies for Doctors and Advisors: Best Practices from Leading Consultants and Certified Medical Planners™Comprehensive Financial Planning Strategies for Doctors and Advisors: Best Practices from Leading Consultants and Certified Medical Planners™

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My Stock Market Forecast for 2015

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All Forecasts Will Be Wrong

[By Lon Jefferies MBA CFP®]

Lon JeffriesThe investment media is a rare industry in which professionals are rewarded for making bold projections but never punished for being wrong. The more outlandish a pundit’s forecast the more attention it receives.

Yet, surprisingly little consideration is given to how accurate the prediction turns out to be.

At the beginning of 2014, there were some widely-accepted expectations regarding the investment environment.

Let’s review those predictions and analyze how precise they really were.

Interest Rates

In a study conducted by Bloomberg at the beginning of the year, all 72 economists surveyed predicted higher interest rates and falling bonds prices in 2014. Consequently, investors were questioning whether they should reduce or eliminate the bond portion of their portfolios until the rate increase occurred.

So, have we experienced this rise in interest rates?

On January 1st, 2014, the yield on the 10-year Treasury note was 3 percent. On November 13th, the yield on the same note was 2.35 percent. That’s right — interest rates actually decreased significantly during the year. As a result, intermediate U.S. government bonds (ticker – IEF) produced a return of 7.38% during the year. Not bad for the conservative portion of your portfolio!

Quantitative Easing

The most widely promoted fear among forecasters was that the phasing out of the Federal Reserve’s quantitative easing (QE) program would diminish stock returns. Prognosticators worried that the Fed would lower the amount of loans the government would buy from commercial banks, thus reducing the amount of money available for new businesses to borrow leading to less innovation and the creation of fewer jobs.

But, was the reduction of quantitative easing a legitimate fear? In fact, this possibility came to fruition. In December of 2013, the Federal Reserve was buying $85 billion of financial assets from commercial banks each month. The Fed reduced this amount during every meeting it held this year, finally eliminating the action completely in October.

However, the elimination of Quantitative Easing did not have a negative impact on the unemployment rate, which declined from 6.7% in January to 5.8% in October. Further, the S&P 500 has gained 12.31% year-to-date (as of 11/13/14). Clearly, fading out the Quantitative Easing program didn’t have the negative impact on stocks that many pundits expected.

Increased Volatility

Another widely held viewpoint at the beginning of the year was that 2014 was likely to be more volatile than anything experienced in 2012 or 2013. There was talk about valuations and P/E ratios being too high, concern about the war in Ukraine (ISIS wasn’t even in the headlines yet), and endless noise about unfavorable weather patterns impacting the market.

So, has 2014 been a wild ride? Since 1929, the S&P 500 has experienced either a rise or a decline of more than 1% during 23% of trading days. In 2014, the S&P 500 moved more than 1% only 15% of the time. Less movement equates to less volatility, so again forecasters were inaccurate.

2015 Forecasts

Bloomberg News recently published a story titled Predictors of ’29 Crash See 65% Chance of 2015 Recession, in which the grandson of a prognosticator who luckily forecasted the Great Depression is still getting attention for a guess his grandfather made 85 years ago. If giving credence to forecasters isn’t ridiculous enough, suggesting there is a gene for forecasting is insane!

The article doesn’t mention that the same grandson made similar headlines with the same forecast in both 2010 and 2012; of course, those predictions did not work out so well. You will start hearing many 2015 projections soon, so pay no heed.

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Ignore the Pundits

The most significant lesson inherent in these numbers is that market expectations are essentially useless. Despite their abysmal track record, the news media loves forecasters because they capture attention and fill space. Unfortunately, pundits making projections are rarely held to their inaccurate forecasts and are allowed to continue making a living showing they have no greater knowledge than the average investor.

Of course, this is not to say that interest rates will never rise, that bond values will never decline, and that the market won’t return to the roller coaster it is. In fact, all those things are certain to happen. Unfortunately, anyone who contends to know “when” likely doesn’t actually know anymore than you or me. For this reason, having and sticking to a diversified investment strategy that coincides with a detailed financial plan is the most probable path to financial success.

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