Understanding Risk Adjusted Portfolio Performance

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A Vital Feedback Loop for any Medical Professional’s Investment Program

By Dr. David Edward Marcinko MBA, CMP™

[Publisher-in-Chief]

While recently visiting the beautiful Johns Hopkins University and Medical School in Baltimore Maryland, I realized that investment portfolio performance measurement — much like an annual physical exam in the Spring — is an important feedback loop to monitor progress towards the goals of the medical professional’s investment program.

Performance comparisons to market indices and/or peer groups are a useful part of this feedback loop, as long as they are considered in the context of the market environment and with the limitations of market index and manager database construction.  Inherent to performance comparisons is the reality that portfolios taking greater risk will tend to out-perform less risky investments during bullish phases of a market cycle, but are also more likely to under-perform during the bearish phase.  The reason for focusing on performance comparisons over a full market cycle is that the phases biasing results in favor of higher risk approaches can be balanced with less favorable environments for aggressive approaches to lessen/eliminate those biases.

THINK: The “flash crash” of March 2009, and the DJIA now hovering near 12,000 of  late.

The Biases

Can we eliminate the biases of the market environment by adjusting performance for the risk assumed by the portfolio?  While several interesting calculations have been developed to measure risk-adjusted performance, the unfortunate answer is that the biases of the market environment still tend to have an impact even after adjusting returns for various measures of risk.

http://www.amazon.com/Financial-Planning-Handbook-Physicians-Advisors/dp/0763745790/ref=sr_1_1?ie=UTF8&s=books&qid=1276795609&sr=1-1

Assessment

However, medical professionals and their advisors will have many different risk-adjusted return statistics presented to them, so understanding the Sharpe ratio, Treynor ratio, Jensen’s measure or alpha, Morningstar star ratings, etc. and their limitations should help to improve the decisions made from the performance measurement feedback loop.

And, these are discussed elsewhere on this ME-P.

Conclusion

Your thoughts and comments on this ME-P are appreciated. Feel free to review our top-left column, and top-right sidebar materials, links, URLs and related websites, too. Then, subscribe to the ME-P. It is fast, free and secure.

Speaker: If you need a moderator or speaker for an upcoming event, Dr. David E. Marcinko; MBA – Publisher-in-Chief of the Medical Executive-Post – is available for seminar or speaking engagements. Contact: MarcinkoAdvisors@msn.com

OUR OTHER PRINT BOOKS AND RELATED INFORMATION SOURCES:

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PODCAST: How Modernized Self-Directed IRAs Help Democratize [Physician] Retirement

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In this podcast, host Dara Albright and guest, Eric Satz, Founder and CEO of Alto IRA, discuss how modern Self-Directed IRAs (SDIRAs) are democratizing retirement planning by providing all Americans with the ability to add non-correlated alternative asset classes to tax-advantaged accounts.

The single greatest – and free – investment tool is also disclosed.

***

What are the Advantages of Rolling the Money of My Retirement Plan into an  IRA? - Protection Point Advisors, Inc.

Discussion highlights include:

  • How SDIRAs offer wealth building opportunities for “not-yet accredited investors”;
  • How SDIRAs have evolved to accommodate micro-sized alternative investments; 
  • Why alternative assets belong in retirement vehicles;
  • Three reasons most retirement savers are underweighted in non-correlated assets;
  • Trading cryptocurrencies without tax consequences; 
  • Why RIAs are looking to ALTO for clients’ crypto allocation;
  • How to open a cryptoIRA account.

PODCAST: https://dwealthmuse.podbean.com/e/episode-12-how-modernized-selfdirected-iras-help-democratize-retirement-1623424270/

Your comments are appreciated.

THANK YOU

RELATED TEXTS: https://medicalexecutivepost.com/2021/04/29/why-are-certified-medical-planner-textbooks-so-darn-popular/

INVITE DR. MARCINKO: https://medicalexecutivepost.com/dr-david-marcinkos-

******

Stress Testing your Investment Portfolio

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What is Your Risk Number?

DG

[By David Gratke]

Are your current investments aligned with YOUR investment goals and expectations in 2022?

As we all know, the global financial markets have responded tremendously to the past seven years of Global Central Bank monetary polices. i.e. asset prices, stocks, bonds and real estate have all gone up in price as a result. But now, we have the pandemic and Ukraine war to consider.

So, when have you last ‘stress-tested’ your portfolio to see how durable it may through various market cycles? And, how do you determine if your current investment holdings are right for you? Maybe they are too conservative, or just the opposite, still too aggressive?  Maybe they are right where they need to be, but how do you know, how do you measure that?

  • Capture you Risk Tolerance
  • See if your portfolio fits you.
  • OK, How do I Start?

By simply answering a few questions, and spending 10 minutes of your time, based upon the size of your investment portfolio, you will quickly determine your own tolerance for risk.

Comparing your Risk Number to your Portfolio

Now that you have calculated your Risk Number, how does that number compare to your actual portfolio holdings? Is the portfolio you have today, the one you started with some time ago regarding risk and return? Is it still in alignment with your original expectations?

Does your portfolio have?

  • Too much risk?
  • Is it too conservative?
  • Or, is it just right
  • What if the market drops significantly? Instead, what if the market goes up significantly? See how your current portfolio will fair in any one of these market conditions:
  • Let’s put your portfolio onto the treadmill; just like the doctor’s office.
  • How do you know, how do you measure?

Let’s Stress Test your Portfolio

  1. Bull Market (Prices generally rise)
  2. Bear Market (Prices generally fall)
  3. Financial Crisis
  4. Rising Interest Rates

***

ScreenShot2015-06-01at11_34_02AM_113439

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  • Are the results in alignment with your expectations?
  • Any ‘hot spots’ you need to know about?
  • Are there any individual holdings that will cause you loss of sleep over?
  • Maybe investments don’t generate enough income?
  • Maybe investments fluctuate too much in price?
  • Now you can have a look and see if there are any ‘hot spots’ where you may need to re-balance a portion of your holdings based upon these findings.

***

2

Yes! That feels like me

***

Congratulations. Once you have determined your Risk Number, and perhaps re-aligned your current portfolio to your Risk Number, then yes, you DO have the portfolio that is right for you, one that ‘feels like you’.

ABOUT

David Gratke is chief executive officer of Gratke Wealth LLC in Beaverton, Ore. A Registered Investment Advisory Firm.

***

Conclusion

Your thoughts and comments on this ME-P are appreciated. How does the current market tumult affect this ME-P or your own investing strategy? Feel free to review our top-left column, and top-right sidebar materials, links, URLs and related websites, too. Then, subscribe to the ME-P. It is fast, free and secure.

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Risk Management, Liability Insurance, and Asset Protection Strategies for Doctors and Advisors: Best Practices from Leading Consultants and Certified Medical Planners™8Comprehensive Financial Planning Strategies for Doctors and Advisors: Best Practices from Leading Consultants and Certified Medical Planners™

“Physicians who don’t understand modern risk management, insurance, business and asset protection principles are sitting ducks waiting to be taken advantage of by unscrupulous insurance agents and financial advisors; and even their own prospective employers or partners. This comprehensive volume from Dr. David Marcinko, and his co-authors, will go a long way toward educating physicians on these critical subjects that were never taught in medical school or residency training.”

Dr. James M. Dahle MD FACEP [Editor of The White Coat Investor, Salt Lake City, Utah]

***

USA “With time at a premium, and so much vital information packed into one well organized resource, this comprehensive textbook should be on the desk of everyone serving in the healthcare ecosystem. The time you spend reading this frank and compelling book will be richly rewarded.”

Dr. J. Wesley Boyd MD PhD MA [Harvard Medical School, Boston, Massachusetts, USA]

Form ADV Part II [The Essential Document]

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Lifting the “Veil of Secrecy” on Selecting Financial Advisors

[By Dr. David Edward Marcinko MBA CMP™]

DEM white  shirtBy law, financial advisors must provide you with a form ADV Part II or a brochure that covers the same information. Even if a brochure is provided, ask for the ADV. Today, it may even be online.

While it is acceptable, even desirable, for the brochure to be easier to read than the ADV, the ADV is what is filed with the appropriate state or SEC. If the brochure reads more like a slick sales brochure or the information in the brochure glosses over the items on the ADV to a high degree, one should consider eliminating the advisor from consideration.

Types of Advisors

Registering with a state or SEC gives an advisor a fiduciary duty to the client. This is a high standard under the law. There are several types of advisors who are exempt from registering and filing an ADV.

First, there are registered representatives (brokers).  Brokers have a fiduciary responsibility to their firms regardless of whether they are statutory employees or independent contractors.

Second are attorneys and accountants whose advice is “incidental” to their legal or accounting practices. But, why would one hire someone whose advice is “incidental” to his primary profession?

A top-notch advisor is a full-time professional and should be registered.  One should insist that their advisor be registered.

****

Lifting veil of secrecy

[The Author in Chicago Seeking Fiduciary Transparency]

***

The ADV will describe the advisor’s background and employment history, including any prior disciplinary issues. It will describe the ownership of the firm and outline how the firm and advisor are compensated. Any referral arrangements will be described. If an advisor has an interest in any of the investments to be recommended, it must be listed as well as the fee schedule. There is also a description of the types of investments recommended and the types of research information that is used.

Assessment

A review of the ADV should result in an alignment of what the advisor said during the interview and what is filed with the regulators. If there is a clear discrepancy, choose another advisor. If it is unclear, discuss the issue with the advisor.

  • SEC Headquarters
  • 100 F Street, NE Washington, DC 20549
  • (202) 942-8088

Channel Surfing the ME-P

Have you visited our other topic channels? Established to facilitate idea exchange and link our community together, the value of these topics is dependent upon your input. Please take a minute to visit. And, to prevent that annoying spam, we ask that you register. It is fast, free and secure.

Conclusion

Your thoughts and comments on this ME-P are appreciated. Feel free to review our top-left column, and top-right sidebar materials, links, URLs and related websites, too. Then, subscribe to the ME-P. It is fast, free and secure.

Speaker: If you need a moderator or speaker for an upcoming event, Dr. David E. Marcinko; MBA – Publisher-in-Chief of the Medical Executive-Post – is available for seminar or speaking engagements. Contact: MarcinkoAdvisors@msn.com

OUR OTHER PRINT BOOKS AND RELATED INFORMATION SOURCES:

Comprehensive Financial Planning Strategies for Doctors and Advisors: Best Practices from Leading Consultants and Certified Medical Planners(TM)

Why 75+ Years of American Finance Should Matter to Physician Investors

A Graphic Presentation [1861-1935] with Commentary from the Publisher

By Dr. David Edward Marcinko FACFAS MBA CPHQ CMP™

http://www.CertifiedMedicalPlanner.org

As our private iMBA Inc clients, ME-P subscribers, textbook and dictionary purchasers, seminar attendees and most ME-P readers know, Ken Arrow is my favorite economist. Why?

About Kenneth J. Arrow, PhD

Well, in 1972, Nobel Laureate Kenneth J. Arrow, PhD shocked Academe’ by identifying health economics as a separate and distinct field. Yet, the seemingly disparate insurance, asset allocation, econometric, statistical and portfolio management principles that he studied have been transparent to most financial professionals and wealth management advisors for years; at least until now.

Nevertheless, to informed cognoscenti, they served as predecessors to the modern healthcare advisory era. In 2004, Arrow was selected as one of eight recipients of the National Medal of Science for his innovative views. And, we envisioned the ME-P at that time to present these increasingly integrated topics to our audience.

Healthcare Economics Today

Today – as 2022 passes – savvy medical professionals, management consultants and financial advisors are realizing that the healthcare industrial complex is in flux; along with the Russian war, domestic inflation and this dynamic may be reflected in the overall flagging economy.

Like many laymen seeking employment, for example, physicians are frantically searching for new ways to improve office revenues and grow personal assets, because of the economic dislocation that is Managed Care, Medi Care and Obama Care [ACA], the depressed business cycle, etc.

Moreover, the largest transfer of wealth in US history is – or was – taking place as our lay elders and mature doctors sell their practices or inherit parents’ estates. Increasingly, the artificial academic boundary between the traditional domestic economy, financial planning and contemporaneous medical practice management is blurring.

I’m Not a Cassandra

Yet, I am no gloom and doom Cassandra like I have been accused, of late. I am not cut from the same cloth as a Jason Zweig, Jeremy Grantham or Nouriel Roubini PhD, for example.

However, I do subscribe to the philosophy of Hope for the Best – Plan for the Worst.

And so dear colleagues, I ask you, “Are the latest swings in the economic, healthcare and financial headlines making you wonder when it will ever stop?”

The short answer is: “It will never stop” because what’s been happening isn’t any “new normal”; it’s just the old normal playing out before a new audience; sans the war.

What audience?

The next-generation of investors, FAs, management consultants and the medical professionals of Health 2.0.

How do I know all this?

History tells me so! Just read this work, and opine otherwise, or reach a different conclusion.

Evidence from the American Financial Scene, circa 1861-1935

The work was created by L. Merle Hostetler in 1936, while he was at Cleveland College of Western Reserve University (now known as Case Western Reserve University). I learned of him while in B-School, back in the day.

At some point after it was printed, he added the years 1936-1938. Mr. Hostetler became a Financial Economist at the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland in 1943. In 1953 he was made Director of Research. He resigned from the Bank in 1962 to work for Union Commerce Bank in Cleveland. He died in 1990.

The volume appears to be self published and consists of a chart, approximately 85′ long, fan-folded into 40 pages with additional years attached to the last page. It also includes a “topical index” to the chart and some questions of technical interest which can be answered by the chart.

Link: http://fraser.stlouisfed.org/75years

Assessment

And so, as with Sir John Templeton’s [whose son is an MD] four most dangerous words in investing (It’s different this time), Hostetler effectively illustrates that it wasn’t so different in his era, and maybe—just maybe—it isn’t so different today for all these conjoined fields.

Conclusion      

Your thoughts and comments on this ME-P are appreciated. While not exactly a “sacred cow,” there is a current theory that investors will experience higher volatility and lower global returns for the foreseeable future.

In fact, it has gained widespread acceptance, from the above noted Cassandra’s and others, as problems in Europe persist and threats of a double-dip recession loom. But, how true is this notion; really?

Is Hostetler correct, or not; and why?

Feel free to review our top-left column, and top-right sidebar materials, links, URLs and related websites, too. Then, subscribe to the ME-P. It is fast, free and secure.

Speaker: If you need a moderator or speaker for an upcoming event, Dr. David E. Marcinko; MBA – Publisher-in-Chief of the Medical Executive-Post – is available for seminar or speaking engagements. Contact: MarcinkoAdvisors@msn.com

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DOCTORS:

“Insurance & Risk Management Strategies for Doctors” https://tinyurl.com/ydx9kd93

“Fiduciary Financial Planning for Physicians” https://tinyurl.com/y7f5pnox

“Business of Medical Practice 2.0” https://tinyurl.com/yb3x6wr8

HOSPITALS:

“Financial Management Strategies for Hospitals” https://tinyurl.com/yagu567d

“Operational Strategies for Clinics and Hospitals” https://tinyurl.com/y9avbrq5

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  Risk Management, Liability Insurance, and Asset Protection Strategies for Doctors and Advisors: Best Practices from Leading Consultants and Certified Medical Planners™8Comprehensive Financial Planning Strategies for Doctors and Advisors: Best Practices from Leading Consultants and Certified Medical Planners™

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Modern Portfolio Theory and Asset Allocation [Not Correlation]

THE CORRELATION HOT TOPIC

ACADEMIC C.V. | DAVID EDWARD MARCINKO

By Dr. David Edward Marcinko MBA CMP©

SPONSOR: http://www.CertifiedMedicalPlanner.org

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Modern Portfolio Theory approaches investing by examining the complete market and the full economy. MPT places a great emphasis on the correlation between investments. 

DEFINITION:

Correlation is a measure of how frequently one event tends to happen when another event happens. High positive correlation means two events usually happen together – high SAT scores and getting through college for instance. High negative correlation means two events tend not to happen together – high SATs and a poor grade record.

No correlation means the two events are independent of one another. In statistical terms two events that are perfectly correlated have a “correlation coefficient” of 1; two events that are perfectly negatively correlated have a correlation coefficient of -1; and two events that have zero correlation have a coefficient of 0.

Correlation has been used over the past twenty years by institutions and financial advisors to assemble portfolios of moderate risk.  In calculating correlation, a statistician would examine the possibility of two events happening together, namely:

  • If the probability of A happening is 1/X;
  • And the probability of B happening is 1/Y; then
  • The probability of A and B happening together is (1/X) times (1/Y), or 1/(X times Y).

There are several laws of correlation including;

  1. Combining assets with a perfect positive correlation offers no reduction in portfolio risk.  These two assets will simply move in tandem with each other.
  2. Combining assets with zero correlation (statistically independent) reduces the risk of the portfolio.  If more assets with uncorrelated returns are added to the portfolio, significant risk reduction can be achieved.
  3. Combing assets with a perfect negative correlation could eliminate risk entirely.   This is the principle with “hedging strategies”.  These strategies are discussed later in the book.

Citation: https://www.r2library.com/Resource/Title/0826102549

BUT – CORRELATION IS NOT CAUSATION

https://medicalexecutivepost.com/2021/02/05/correlation-is-not-causation/

In the real world, negative correlations are very rare 

Most assets maintain a positive correlation with each other.  The goal of a prudent investor is to assemble a portfolio that contains uncorrelated assets.  When a portfolio contains assets that possess low correlations, the upward movement of one asset class will help offset the downward movement of another.  This is especially important when economic and market conditions change.

As a result, including assets in your portfolio that are not highly correlated will reduce the overall volatility (as measured by standard deviation) and may also increase long-term investment returns. This is the primary argument for including dissimilar asset classes in your portfolio. Keep in mind that this type of diversification does not guarantee you will avoid a loss.  It simply minimizes the chance of loss. 

In the table provided by Ibbotson, the average correlation between the five major asset classes is displayed. The lowest correlation is between the U.S. Treasury Bonds and the EAFE (international stocks).  The highest correlation is between the S&P 500 and the EAFE; 0.77 or 77 percent. This signifies a prominent level of correlation that has grown even larger during this decade.   Low correlations within the table appear most with U.S. Treasury Bills.

Historical Correlation of Asset Classes

Benchmark                             1          2          3         4         5         6            

1 U.S. Treasury Bill                  1.00    

2 U.S. Bonds                          0.73     1.00    

3 S&P 500                               0.03     0.34     1.00    

4 Commodities                         0.15     0.04     0.08      1.00      

5 International Stocks              -0.13    -0.31    0.77      0.14    1.00       

6 Real Estate                           0.11      0.43    0.81     -0.02    0.66     1.00

Table Source: Ibbotson 1980-2012

Comprehensive Financial Planning Strategies for Doctors and Advisors: Best Practices from Leading Consultants and Certified Medical Planners™

ORDER Textbook: https://www.amazon.com/Comprehensive-Financial-Planning-Strategies-Advisors/dp/1482240289/ref=sr_1_1?ie=UTF8&qid=1418580820&sr=8-1&keywords=david+marcinko

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THANK YOU

***

FINANCIAL PLANNING: Strategies for Doctors and their Advisors

***

BY DR. DAVID E. MARCINKO MBA CMP®

SPONSOR: http://www.CertifiedMedicalPlanner.org

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REVIEWS:

Written by doctors and healthcare professionals, this textbook should be mandatory reading for all medical school students—highly recommended for both young and veteran physicians—and an eliminating factor for any financial advisor who has not read it. The book uses jargon like ‘innovative,’ ‘transformational,’ and ‘disruptive’—all rightly so! It is the type of definitive financial lifestyle planning book we often seek, but seldom find.
LeRoy Howard MA CMPTM,Candidate and Financial Advisor, Fayetteville, North Carolina

I taught diagnostic radiology for over a decade. The physician-focused niche information, balanced perspectives, and insider industry transparency in this book may help save your financial life.
Dr. William P. Scherer MS, Barry University, Ft. Lauderdale, Florida

This book was crafted in response to the frustration felt by doctors who dealt with top financial, brokerage, and accounting firms. These non-fiduciary behemoths often prescribed costly wholesale solutions that were applicable to all, but customized for few, despite ever-changing needs. It is a must-read to learn why brokerage sales pitches or Internet resources will never replace the knowledge and deep advice of a physician-focused financial advisor, medical consultant, or collegial Certified Medical Planner™ financial professional.
—Parin Khotari MBA,Whitman School of Management, Syracuse University, New York

In today’s healthcare environment, in order for providers to survive, they need to understand their current and future market trends, finances, operations, and impact of federal and state regulations. As a healthcare consulting professional for over 30 years supporting both the private and public sector, I recommend that providers understand and utilize the wealth of knowledge that is being conveyed in these chapters. Without this guidance providers will have a hard time navigating the supporting system which may impact their future revenue stream. I strongly endorse the contents of this book.
—Carol S. Miller BSN MBA PMP,President, Miller Consulting Group, ACT IAC Executive Committee Vice-Chair at-Large, HIMSS NCA Board Member

This is an excellent book on financial planning for physicians and health professionals. It is all inclusive yet very easy to read with much valuable information. And, I have been expanding my business knowledge with all of Dr. Marcinko’s prior books. I highly recommend this one, too. It is a fine educational tool for all doctors.
—Dr. David B. Lumsden MD MS MA,Orthopedic Surgeon, Baltimore, Maryland

There is no other comprehensive book like it to help doctors, nurses, and other medical providers accumulate and preserve the wealth that their years of education and hard work have earned them.
—Dr. Jason Dyken MD MBA,Dyken Wealth Strategies, Gulf Shores, Alabama

I plan to give a copy of this book written
by doctors and for doctors’ to all my prospects, physician, and nurse clients. It may be the definitive text on this important topic.
—Alexander Naruska CPA,Orlando, Florida

Health professionals are small business owners who need to apply their self-discipline tactics in establishing and operating successful practices. Talented trainees are leaving the medical profession because they fail to balance the cost of attendance against a realistic business and financial plan. Principles like budgeting, saving, and living below one’s means, in order to make future investments for future growth, asset protection, and retirement possible are often lacking. This textbook guides the medical professional in his/her financial planning life journey from start to finish. It ranks a place in all medical school libraries and on each of our bookshelves.
—Dr. Thomas M. DeLauro DPM,Professor and Chairman – Division of Medical Sciences, New York College of Podiatric Medicine

Physicians are notoriously excellent at diagnosing and treating medical conditions. However, they are also notoriously deficient in managing the business aspects of their medical practices. Most will earn $20-30 million in their medical lifetime, but few know how to create wealth for themselves and their families. This book will help fill the void in physicians’ financial education. I have two recommendations: 1) every physician, young and old, should read this book; and 2) read it a second time!
—Dr. Neil Baum MD,Clinical Associate Professor of Urology, Tulane Medical School, New Orleans, Louisiana

I worked with a Certified Medical Planner™ on several occasions in the past, and will do so again in the future. This book codified the vast body of knowledge that helped in all facets of my financial life and professional medical practice.
Dr. James E. Williams DABPS, Foot and Ankle Surgeon, Conyers, Georgia

This is a constantly changing field for rules, regulations, taxes, insurance, compliance, and investments. This book assists readers, and their financial advisors, in keeping up with what’s going on in the healthcare field that all doctors need to know.
Patricia Raskob CFP® EA ATA, Raskob Kambourian Financial Advisors, Tucson, Arizona

I particularly enjoyed reading the specific examples in this book which pointed out the perils of risk … something with which I am too familiar and have learned (the hard way) to avoid like the Black Death. It is a pleasure to come across this kind of wisdom, in print, that other colleagues may learn before it’s too late— many, many years down the road.
Dr. Robert S. Park MD, Robert Park and Associates Insurance, Seattle, Washington

Although this book targets physicians, I was pleased to see that it also addressed the financial planning and employment benefit needs of nurses; physical, respiratory, and occupational therapists; CRNAs, hospitalists, and other members of the health care team….highly readable, practical, and understandable.
Nurse Cecelia T. Perez RN, Hospital Operating Room Manager, Ellicott City, Maryland

Personal financial success in the PP-ACA era will be more difficult to achieve than ever before. It requires the next generation of doctors to rethink frugality, delay gratification, and redefine the very definition of success and work–life balance. And, they will surely need the subject matter medical specificity and new-wave professional guidance offered in this book. This book is a ‘must-read’ for all health care professionals, and their financial advisors, who wish to take an active role in creating a new subset of informed and pioneering professionals known as Certified Medical Planners™.
—Dr. Mark D. Dollard FACFAS, Private Practice, Tyson Corner, Virginia

As healthcare professionals, it is our Hippocratic duty to avoid preventable harm by paying attention. On the other hand, some of us are guilty of being reckless with our own financial health—delaying serious consideration of investments, taxation, retirement income, estate planning, and inheritances until the worry keeps one awake at night. So, if you have avoided planning for the future for far too long, perhaps it is time to take that first step toward preparedness. This in-depth textbook is an excellent starting point—not only because of its readability, but because of his team’s expertise and thoroughness in addressing the intricacies of modern investments—and from the point of view of not only gifted financial experts, but as healthcare providers, as well … a rare combination.
Dr. Darrell K. Pruitt DDS, Private Practice Dentist, Fort Worth, Texas

This text should be on the bookshelf of all contemporary physicians. The book is physician-focused with unique topics applicable to all medical professionals. But, it also offers helpful insights into the new tax and estate laws, fiduciary accountability for advisors and insurance agents, with investing, asset protection and risk management, and retirement planning strategies with updates for the brave new world of global payments of the Patient Protection and Affordable Care Act. Starting out by encouraging readers to examine their personal ‘money blueprint’ beliefs and habits, the book is divided into four sections offering holistic life cycle financial information and economic education directed to new, mid-career, and mature physicians.

This structure permits one to dip into the book based on personal need to find relief, rather than to overwhelm. Given the complexity of modern domestic healthcare, and the daunting challenges faced by physicians who try to stay abreast of clinical medicine and the ever-evolving laws of personal finance, this textbook could not have come at a better time.
—Dr. Philippa Kennealy MD MPH, The Entrepreneurial MD, Los Angeles, California

Physicians have economic concerns unmatched by any other profession, arriving ten years late to the start of their earning years. This textbook goes to the core of how to level the playing field quickly, and efficaciously, by a new breed of dedicated Certified Medical Planners™. With physician-focused financial advice, each chapter is a building block to your financial fortress.
Thomas McKeon, MBA, Pharmaceutical Representative, Philadelphia, Pennsylvania

An excellent resource … this textbook is written in a manner that provides physician practice owners with a comprehensive guide to financial planning and related topics for their professional practice in a way that is easily comprehended. The style in which it breaks down the intricacies of the current physician practice landscape makes it a ‘must-read’ for those physicians (and their advisors) practicing in the volatile era of healthcare reform.
—Robert James Cimasi, MHA ASA FRICS MCBA CVA CM&AA CMP™, CEO-Health Capital Consultants, LLC, St. Louis, Missouri

Rarely can one find a full compendium of information within a single source or text, but this book communicates the new financial realities we are forced to confront; it is full of opportunities for minimizing tax liability and maximizing income potential. We’re recommending it to all our medical practice management clients across the entire healthcare spectrum.
Alan Guinn, The Guinn Consultancy Group, Inc., Cookeville, Tennessee

Dr. David Edward Marcinko MBA CMP™ and his team take a seemingly endless stream of disparate concepts and integrate them into a simple, straightforward, and understandable path to success. And, he codifies them all into a step-by-step algorithm to more efficient investing, risk management, taxation, and enhanced retirement planning for doctors and nurses. His text is a vital read—and must execute—book for all healthcare professionals and physician-focused financial advisors.
Dr. O. Kent Mercado, JD, Private Practitioner and Attorney, Naperville, Illinois

Kudos. The editors and contributing authors have compiled the most comprehensive reference book for the medical community that has ever been attempted. As you review the chapters of interest and hone in on the most important concerns you may have, realize that the best minds have been harvested for you to plan well… Live well.
Martha J. Schilling; AAMS® CRPC® ETSC CSA, Shilling Group Advisors, LLC, Philadelphia, Pennsylvania

I recommend this book to any physician or medical professional that desires an honest no-sales approach to understanding the financial planning and investing world. It is worthwhile to any financial advisor interested in this space, as well.
David K. Luke, MIM MS-PFP CMP™, Net Worth Advisory Group, Sandy, Utah

Although not a substitute for a formal business education, this book will help physicians navigate effectively through the hurdles of day-to-day financial decisions with the help of an accountant, financial and legal advisor. I highly recommend it and commend Dr. Marcinko and the Institute of Medical Business Advisors, Inc. on a job well done.
Ken Yeung MBA CMP™, Tseung Kwan O Hospital, Hong Kong

I’ve seen many ghost-written handbooks, paperbacks, and vanity-published manuals on this topic throughout my career in mental healthcare. Most were poorly written, opinionated, and cheaply produced self-aggrandizing marketing drivel for those agents selling commission-based financial products and expensive advisory services. So, I was pleasantly surprised with this comprehensive peer-reviewed academic textbook, complete with citations, case examples, and real-life integrated strategies by and for medical professionals. Although a bit late for my career, I recommend it highly to all my younger colleagues … It’s credibility and specificity stand alone.
Dr. Clarice Montgomery PhD MA,Retired Clinical Psychologist

In an industry known for one-size-fits-all templates and massively customized books, products, advice, and services, the extreme healthcare specificity of this text is both refreshing and comprehensive.
Dr. James Joseph Bartley, Columbus, Georgia

My brother was my office administrator and accountant. We both feel this is the most comprehensive textbook available on financial planning for healthcare providers.
Dr. Anthony Robert Naruska DC,Winter Park, Florida

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What is Tactical Portfolio Management?

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Re-Thinking Strategic Allocation

[By Dr. David Edward Marcinko MBA]

Dr. David E. Marcinko MBAMany successful physician investors, retirement account managers or endowment fund administrators will establish a “strategic” allocation policy that is intended to guide long-term (greater than one-year) investment decisions.

Thinking Long Term?

This strategic allocation reflects the endowment’s thinking regarding the existence of perceived fundamental shifts in the market. Most endowments will also establish a target range or band for each asset class. The day-to-day managers then have the flexibility to make tactical decisions for a given class so long as they stay within the target range.

Terms

The term “tactical” when used in the context of investment strategy refers to the investor or manager’s ability to take advantage of short-term (under one year) market anomalies such as pricing discrepancies between different sectors or across different styles.

Assessment

Historically, tactical decisions with respect to asset allocation were derided as “market timing.” However, market timing implies moving outside of the target ranges whereas tactical decision making simply addresses the opportunistic deployment of funds within the asset class target range.

So, what do you think?

Online MD investor

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The Long and Short of Portfolio Construction

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Long-Short Portfolio Construction vs. Long-Only

[By Dr. David Edward Marcinko MBA CMP™]

http://www.CertifiedMedicalPlanner.org

[Publisher-in-Chief]

Long-Short is an active portfolio construction discipline that balances long positions in high expected return securities and short positions in low expected return securities of approximately equal value and market sensitivity. This type of portfolio is “neutralized” or immunized against changes in value of the underlying market and, therefore, has zero systematic (beta) risk. If the selected securities perform as expected, the long-short positions will provide a positive return, whether the market rises or falls.

Misconceptions

While long-short portfolios are often perceived and portrayed as much costlier and much riskier than long-only, it is inherently neither. Much of the incremental cost and risk is either largely dependent on the amount of leverage employed or controllable via optimization. Those costs and risks that are not controllable—financial intermediation costs of borrowing shares to short, the trading costs incurred to meet long-short balancing, margin requirements, uptick rules, and the risks of unlimited losses on short positions—do not invalidate the viability of long-short strategies.

Long-Short Advantages

Compared with long-only portfolios, long-short portfolios offer enhanced flexibility not only in the control of risk and pursuit of return, but also in asset allocation. Basic market-neutral portfolios achieve a return consisting of three components: (1) interest on funds held as a liquidity buffer, (2) interest on the short sale proceeds maintained with the broker, and (3) the return spread between the aggregate long and aggregate short positions in the portfolios.

Disadvantages

Share borrow-ability and uptick rules make short-selling more difficult and costly than going long. Also, it may be legally or contractually restricted for some investors, such as mutual funds. Inefficiencies may be concentrated in overpriced stocks and, accordingly, short sales of the most overpriced stocks may offer higher positive returns than long purchases of underpriced stocks.

Assessment

Long-only portfolios are confined to altering the weighting of securities within an index in order to realize an excess return. Long-short portfolios are not constrained by index weights and, because they can short securities, they can “underweight” a security by as much as investment insights and risk considerations dictate. Long-short portfolios can be enhanced by “equitizing” them using stock index futures.

Note: “The Long and Short on Long-Short” by Bruce I. Jacobs and Kenneth N. Levy, The Journal of Investing, Spring 1997, pp. 73–86, Institutional Investor, Inc.

Conclusion

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PENSION PLANS: Defined Benefit V. Defined Contribution Types

KNOW THE DIFFERENCE

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Defined Benefit Pension Plan

A defined benefit (DB) pension plan is a type of pension plan in which an employer/sponsor promises a specified pension payment, lump-sum or combination thereof on retirement that is predetermined by a formula based on the employee’s earnings history, tenure of service and age, rather than depending directly on individual investment returns. Traditionally, many governmental and public entities, as well as a large number of corporations, provide defined benefit plans, sometimes as a means of compensating workers in lieu of increased pay.

Defined Contribution Pension Plan

A defined contribution (DC) plan is a type of retirement plan in which the employer, employee or both make contributions on a regular basis. Individual accounts are set up for participants and benefits are based on the amounts credited to these accounts (through employee contributions and, if applicable, employer contributions) plus any investment earnings on the money in the account. In defined contribution plans, future benefits fluctuate on the basis of investment earnings. The most common type of defined contribution plan is a savings and thrift plan. Under this type of plan, the employee contributes a predetermined portion of his or her earnings (usually pretax) to an individual account, all or part of which is matched by the employer.

CITE: Wilipedia

CITE: https://www.r2library.com/Resource/Title/0826102549

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General Obligation and Revenue Bonds

Understanding GOs and RBs

[By Staff Writers]fp-book2

General obligation bonds are secured by the taxing authority and are therefore considered safer than other municipals. The full faith and credit of the municipality ensures prompt payment of principal and interest.

Further more, most municipal bonds, including city, county, and school district issues, are secured by a pledge of unlimited property taxes (known as ad-valorem taxes), which further secures the bonds. If taxes are not paid, the property may be sold at a tax sale, at which the bondholder has a superior position.

Revenue bonds

Revenue bonds are payable from the earnings of a revenue-generating facility, such as water, sewers, or utility systems, toll bridges, or airports. The risk, however, is that the facility will not generate income sufficient to pay the interest, and therefore the yield is somewhat higher than for a general-obligation bond.

Revenue bonds are supported only by the revenue earned, so if the project does not produce revenues sufficient to pay the interest on the bonds, then the bonds go into default. Therefore, it is important to properly evaluate the municipality’s ability to tax and/or the assumptions used to project the facility’s revenue.

Conclusion

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What is Risk Adjusted Stock Market Performance?

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Update on Some Interesting and Important Financial Calculations

By Timothy J. McIntosh MBA CFP® MPH

By Dr. David Edward Marcinko MBA CMP™

By Jeffery S. Coons PhD CFA

TMDr. Jeff Coons

dr-david-marcinko9

-INTRODUCTION-

Performance measurement, like an annual physical, is an important feedback loop to monitor progress towards the goals of the medical professional’s investment program.  Performance comparisons to market indices and/or peer groups are a useful part of this feedback loop, as long as they are considered in the context of the market environment and with the limitations of market index and manager database construction.

Inherent to performance comparisons is the reality that portfolios taking greater risk will tend to out-perform less risky investments during bullish phases of a market cycle, but are also more likely to under-perform during the bearish phase.  The reason for focusing on performance comparisons over a full market cycle is that the phases biasing results in favor of higher risk approaches can be balanced with less favorable environments for aggressive approaches to lessen/eliminate those biases.

So, as physicians and other investors, can we eliminate the biases of the market environment by adjusting performance for the risk assumed by the portfolio?  While several interesting calculations have been developed to measure risk-adjusted performance, the unfortunate answer is that the biases of the market environment still tend to have an impact even after adjusting returns for various measures of risk.

However, medical professionals and their advisors will have many different risk-adjusted return statistics presented to them, so understanding the Sharpe ratio, Treynor ratio, Jensen’s measure or alpha, Morningstar star ratings, etc. and their limitations should help to improve the decisions made from the performance measurement feedback loop.

[a] The Treynor Ratio

The Treynor ratio measures the excess return achieved over the risk free return per unit of systematic risk as identified by beta to the market portfolio.  In practice, the Treynor ratio is often calculated using the T-Bill return for the risk-free return and the S&P 500 for the market portfolio.

[b] The Sharpe Ratio

The Sharpe ratio, named after CAPM pioneer William F. Sharpe, was originally formulated by substituting the standard deviation of portfolio returns (i.e., systematic plus unsystematic risk) in the place of beta of the Treynor ratio.  Thus, a fully diversified portfolio with no unsystematic risk will have a Sharpe ratio equal to its Treynor ratio, while a less diversified portfolio may have significantly different Sharpe and Treynor ratios.

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8Comprehensive Financial Planning Strategies for Doctors and Advisors: Best Practices from Leading Consultants and Certified Medical Planners™

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[c] The Jensen Alpha Measure

The Jensen measure, named after CAPM research Michael C. Jensen, takes advantage of the CAPM equation discussed in the Portfolio Management section to identify a statistically significant excess return or alpha of a portfolio.  The essential idea is that to investigate the performance of an investment manager you must look not only at the overall return of a portfolio, but also at the risk of that portfolio.

For instance, if there are two mutual funds that both have a 12 percent return, a lucid investor will want the fund that is less risky. Jensen’s gauge is one of the ways to help decide if a portfolio is earning the appropriate return for its level of risk. If the value is positive, then the portfolio is earning excess returns. In other words, a positive value for Jensen’s alpha means a fund manager has “beat the market” with his or her stock picking skills compared with the risk the manager has taken.

[d] Database Ratings

The ratings given to mutual funds by databases, such as Morningstar, and various financial magazines are another attempt to develop risk-adjusted return measures.  These ratings are generally based on a ranking system for funds calculated from return and risk statistics.

A popular example is Morningstar’s star ratings, representing a weighting of three, five and ten year risk/return ratings.  This measure uses a return score from cumulative excess monthly fund returns above T-Bills and a risk score derived from the cumulative monthly return below T-Bills, both of which are normalized by the average for the fund’s asset class.  These scores are then subtracted from each other and funds in the asset class are ranked on the difference.  The top 10 percent receive five stars, the next 22.5 percent get four stars, the subsequent 35 percent receive three stars, the next 22.5 percent receive two stars, and the remaining 10 percent get one star.

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Risk Management, Liability Insurance, and Asset Protection Strategies for Doctors and Advisors: Best Practices from Leading Consultants and Certified Medical Planners™

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Assessment

Unfortunately, these ratings systems tend to have the same problems of consistency and environmental bias seen in both non-risk adjusted comparisons over 3 and 5 year time periods and the other risk-adjusted return measures discussed above.  The bottom line on performance measurement is that the medical professional should not take the easy way out and accept independent comparisons, no matter how sophisticated, at face value.  Returning to our original rules-of-thumb, understanding the limitations of performance statistics is the key to using those statistics to monitor progress towards one’s goals.

This requires an understanding of performance numbers and comparisons in the context of the market environment and the composition/construction of the indices and peer group universes used as benchmarks.

Another important rule-of-thumb is to avoid projecting forward historical average returns, especially when it comes to strong performance in a bull market environment.  Much of an investment or manager’s performance may be environment-driven, and environments can change dramatically.

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ABOUT

Timothy J. McIntosh is Chief Investment Officer and founder of SIPCO.  As chairman of the firm’s investment committee, he oversees all aspects of major client accounts and serves as lead portfolio manager for the firm’s equity and bond portfolios. Mr. McIntosh was a Professor of Finance at Eckerd College from 1998 to 2008. He is the author of The Bear Market Survival Guide and the The Sector Strategist.  He is featured in publications like the Wall Street Journal, New York Times, USA Today, Investment Advisor, Fortune, MD News, Tampa Doctor’s Life, and The St. Petersburg Times.  He has been recognized as a Five Star Wealth Manager in Texas Monthly magazine; and continuously named as Medical Economics’ “Best Financial Advisors for Physicians since 2004.  And, he is a contributor to SeekingAlpha.com., a premier website of investment opinion. Mr. McIntosh earned a Bachelor of Science Degree in Economics from Florida State University; Master of Business Administration (M.B.A) degree from the University of Sarasota; Master of Public Health Degree (M.P.H) from the University of South Florida and is a CERTIFIED FINANCIAL PLANNER® practitioner. His previous experience includes employment with Blue Cross/Blue Shield of Florida, Enterprise Leasing Company, and the United States Army Military Intelligence.

Dr. Jeffrey S. Coons is the Co-Director of Research at Manning & Napier Advisors, Inc. with primary responsibilities focusing on the measurement and management of portfolio risk and return relative to client objectives.  This includes providing analysis across every aspect of the investment process, from objectives setting and asset allocation to on-going monitoring of portfolio risk and return.  Dr. Coons is also member of the Investment Policy Group, which establishes and monitors secular investment trends, macroeconomic overviews, and the investment disciplines of the firm. Dr. Coons holds a doctoral degree in economics from Temple University, graduated with distinction from the University of Rochester with a B.A. in Economics, holds the designation of Chartered Financial Analyst, and is one of the employee-owners of Manning and Napier.

Conclusion

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Understanding investment banking rules, securities markets, brokerage accounts, margin and debt

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A Primer for Physician Investors and Medical Professionals

Dr. David Edward Marcinko; MBA, CMP™

SPONSOR: http://www.CertifiedMedicalPlanner.org

[PART 1 OF 8]

BC Dr. Marcinko

NOTE: This is an eight part ME-P series based on a weekend lecture I gave more than a decade ago to an interested group of graduate, business and medical school students. The material is a bit dated and some facts and specifics may have changed since then. But, the overall thought-leadership information of the essay remains interesting and informative. We trust you will enjoy it.

Introduction

The history, function and processes of the investment banking industry, and the rules and regulations of the securities industry and their respective markets, as well as the use of  brokerage accounts, margin and debt, will be briefly reviewed in this ME-P series.

An understanding of these concepts is required of all doctors and medical professionals as they pursue a personal investment strategy.

INVESTMENT BANKING AND SECURITIES UNDERWRITING

New economy corporate events of the past several years have provided many financial signs and symptoms that indicate a creeping securitization of the for-profit healthcare industrial complex. Similarly, fixed income medical investors should understand how Federal and State regulations impact upon personal and public debt needs. For, without investment banking firms, it would be almost impossible for private industry, medical corporations and government to raise needed capital.

Introduction

When a corporation such as a physician practice management company (PPMC), or similar entity needs, to raise capital for growth or expansion, there are two methods. Raising debt or equity. If equity is used, the corporation can market securities directly to the public by contacting its current stockholders and asking them to purchase the new securities in a  rights offering, by advertising or by hiring salespeople. Although this last example is somewhat exaggerated, it illustrates that there is a cost to selling new securities, which may be considerable if the firm itself undertakes the task.

For this reason, most corporations employ help in marketing new securities by using the services of investment bankers who sell new securities to the general public.  Although the investment banking is an exciting and vital industry, many SEC rules regulating it are not. Nevertheless, it is important for all physician executives to understand basic concepts of the industry if raising public money is ever a possibility or anticipated goal. It is also important for individual healthcare investors  to understand something about securities underwriting to reduce the likelihood of fraudulent investment schemes or ill-conceived transactions which ultimately result in monetary loss.

Fundamentals of the Investment Banking Industry

Investment bankers are not really bankers at all. The fact that the word banker appears in the name is partially responsible for the  false impressions that exist in the medical community regarding the functions they perform.

For example, they are not permitted to accept deposit, provide checking accounts, or perform other activities normally construed to be commercial banking activities. An investment bank is simply a firm that specializes in helping other corporations obtain the money they need under the most advantageous terms possible.

When it comes to the actual process of having securities issued, the corporation approaches an investment banking firm, either directly, or through a competitive selection process and asks it to act as adviser and distributor.  Investment bankers, or under writers, as they are sometimes called, are middlemen in the capital markets for corporate securities.

The medical corporation requiring the funds discuss the amount, type of security to be issued, price and other features of the security, as well as the cost to issuing the securities. All of these factors are negotiated in a process known as known as negotiated underwriting. If mutually acceptable terms are reached, the investment banking firm will be the middle man through which the securities are sold to the general public. Since such firms have many customers, they are able to sell new securities, without the costly search that individual corporations may require to sell its own security. Thus, although the firm in need of  additional capital must pay for the service, it is usually able to raise the additional capital at less expense through the use of an investment banker, than by selling the securities itself.

The agreement between the investment banker and the corporation may be one of two types. The investment bank may agree to purchase, or underwrite, the entire issue of securities and to re-offer them to the general public. This is  known as a firm commitment.

When an investment banker agrees to underwrite such a sale,  it  agrees to supply the corporation with a specified amount of money. The firm buys the securities with the intention to resell them. If it fails to sell the securities, the investment banker must still pay the agreed upon sum. Thus, the risk of selling rests with the underwriter and not with the company issuing the securities.

The alternative agreement is a best efforts agreement in which the investment banker makes his best effort to sell the securities acting on behalf of the issuer, but does not guarantee a specified amount of money will be raised.

When a corporation raises new capital through a public offering of stock, on might inquire from where does the stock come? The only source the corporation has is authorized, but previously un-issued stock. Anytime authorized, but previously un-issued stock (new stock) is issued to the public, it is known as a primary offering. If it’s the very first time the corporation is making the offering, it’s also known as the Initial Public Offering (IPO). Anytime there is a primary offering of stock, the issuing corporation is raising additional equity capital.

A secondary offering, or distribution, on the other hand, is defied as an offering of a large block of outstanding stock. Most frequently, a secondary offering is the sale of a large block of stock owned by one or more stockholders. It is stock that has previously been issued and is now being re-sold by investors. Another case would be when a corporation re-sells its treasury stock.

Prior to any further discussions of investment banking, there are several industry terms that’s should  be defined.

For example, an agent buys or sells securities for the account and risk of another party, and charges a commission. In the securities business, the terms broker and agent are used synonymously. This is not true of the insurance industry.

On the other hand, a principal is one who acts as a dealer rather than an agent or broker. A dealer buys and sells for his own account Finally, the dealer makes money by buying at one price and selling at a higher price. Thus, it is easy to understand how an investment banking firm earns money handling a best efforts offering; they make a commission on every share they sell.

  Comprehensive Financial Planning Strategies for Doctors and Advisors: Best Practices from Leading Consultants and Certified Medical Planners™

The Securities Act of 1933 (Act of Full Disclosure)

When a corporation makes a public offering of its stock, it is bound by the provisions of the Securities Act of 1933, which is also known as the Act of Full Disclosure. The primary requirement of  the Act is that the corporation must file a registration statement (full disclosure) with the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC); containing some of the following items:

  • Description of the business entity raising the money.
  • Biographical data regarding officers and directors of the issuer.
  • Listing of share holdings of officers, directors, and holders of more than 10% of the issuer’s securities (insiders).
  • Financial statements including a breakdown of existing capitalization (existing debt and equity structure).
  • Intended use of offering proceeds.
  • Legal proceedings involving the issuer, such as suits, antitrust actions or strikes.

Acting in its capacity as an adviser to the corporation, the investment banking firm files out the registration statement with the SEC. It then takes the SEC a period of time to review the information in the registration statement. This is the “cooling off period” and the issue is said to be “in registration” during this time. When the Act written in 1933, Congress thought that 20 days would be enough time from the filing date, until the effective date the sale of  securities is permitted.

In reality, it frequently takes much longer than 20 days for the SEC to complete its review. But, regardless of how long it lasts, it’s known as the cooling off period. At the end of the cooling off period, the SEC will either accept the issue or they will send a letter back to the issuer, and the underwriter, explaining that there is incomplete information in the registration statement. This letter is known as a deficiency letter. It will postpone the effectiveness of the registration statement until the deficiency is remedied. Even if initially, or eventually approved, an effective registration does not mean that the SEC has approved the issue.

For example, the following well known disclaimer statement written in bold red ink, is required to be placed in capital letters on the front cover page of every prospectus:

###

THESE SECURITIES HAVE NOT BEEN APPROVED OR DISAPPROVED BY THE SECURITIES AND EXCHANGE COMMISSION NOR HAS THE COMMISSION PASSED UPON THE ACCURACY OR ADEQUACY OF THIS PROSPECTUS. ANY REPRESENTATION TO THE CONTRARY IS A CRIMINAL OFFENSE.

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During the cooling off period, the investment bank tries to create interest in the market place for the issue. In order to do that, it distributes a preliminary prospectus, more commonly known as a “red herring”. It is known as a red herring because of the red lettering on the front page.  The statement on the very top with the date is printed in red as well as the statements on the left hand margin of the preliminary prospectus.

The cost of printing the red herring is borne by the investment bank, since they are  trying to market it.. The red herring includes information from the registration statement that will be most helpful for potential medical investors trying to make a decision. It describes the company and the securities to be issued; includes the firm’s financial statements; its current activities; the regulatory bodies to which it is subject; the nature of its competition; the management of the corporation, and what the expected proceeds will be used for. Two very important items  missing from the red herring are the public offering price and the effective date of the issue, as neither are known for certain at this point in time.

The public offering price is generally determined on the date that the securities become effective for sale (effective date). Waiting until the last minute enables the investment bankers to price the new issue in line with current market conditions. Since the investment banker uses the red herring to try to create interest in the market place, stock brokers [aka: Registered Representatives (RRs) with a Series # 7 general securities license –  After a 2 hour multiple-choice computerize test, I held this license for a decade ) will send copies of the red herring to their clients for whom they feel the issue is a suitable investment. The SEC is very strict on what can be said about an issue, in registration.

In fact, during the pre-filing period (the time when the negotiations are going on between the issuer\and underwriter), absolutely nothing can be said about it to anyone.  For example, if the regulators find out that your stock broker discussed with you  the fact that his firm was negotiating with an issuer for a possible public offering, he could be fined, or jailed.

During the cooling off period (the time when the red herring is being distributed), nothing may be sent to you; not a research report, nor a recommendation from another firm, or even the sales literature. The only thing you are permitted to receive is the red herring. The red herring is used to acquaint prospects with essential information about the offering. If you are interested in purchasing the security, then you will receive an “indication of interest”, but you can still not make a purchase or send money.

No sales may be made until the effective date; all that can be used to generate interest is the red herring.

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#6: The Six Commandments of Value Investing

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6. In the long run, stocks revert to their fair value

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EDITOR’S NOTE: Although it has been some time since speaking live with busy colleague Vitaliy Katsenelson CFA, I review his internet material frequently and appreciate this ME-P series contribution. I encourage all ME-P readers to do the same and consider his value investing insights carefully.

By Vitaliy Katsenelson, CFA

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6. In the long run, stocks revert to their fair value

Reversion to fair value is not a pie-in-the-sky concept. If a stock is significantly undervalued for a long time, then this undervaluation gets cured, eventually. That can happen through share buybacks – the company can basically buy all of its shares and take itself private.

Or it can happen by the company’s paying out its earnings in dividends, thus creating yields that the market will not be able to ignore. Or the company’s competitors will realize that it is cheaper for them to buy the company than to replicate its assets on their own. Either way, undervaluation gets cured.

This faith that undervaluation will not last forever is paramount to value investing. But this is not your regular faith, which requires belief without proof. This is evidence-supported faith with hundreds of years of data to back it. Just look at the US stock market: it has gone through cycles when it was incredibly cheap and others when it was incredibly expensive. At some points in its journey from one extreme to the other, it touched its fair value, even if it was transitory.

Historically, value investing (owning undervalued companies) has done significantly better than other strategies. Paradoxically, the reason it has done well in the long run is because it did not work consistently in the short run. If something works consistently (keyword), everybody piles into it and it stops working.

These aforementioned cycles of temporary brilliance and dumbness are not just common to us mere mortals. Even Warren Buffett’s Berkshire Hathaway goes through them. As just one example, in 1999, when the stock market went up 21%, Berkshire Hathaway stock declined 19%. In 1999, the financial press was writing obituaries for Buffett’s investment prowess.

Suddenly, in 1999, Buffett’s IQ was lagging the market by 40%. At the time, investors were infatuated with internet stocks that were not making money but that were supposed to have a bright future. Investors were selling unsexy “old economy” stocks that Buffett owned in order to buy the “new economy” ones.

If at the end of 1999, you were to sell Berkshire Hathaway and buy the S&P 500 instead, you would have done the easy thing, but it would have been a large (though very common) mistake. Over the next three years Berkshire Hathaway gained over 30% while the S&P declined over 40%. During the year 1999, Buffett’s IQ did not change much; in fact, the (book) value of businesses Berkshire Hathaway owned went up by 0.5% that year. But in 1999, the market’s attention was somewhere else and it chose to price Berkshire Hathaway 19% lower. 

As a value investor, if you do a reasonable job estimating what the business is worth, then at some point the stock market will price it accordingly. You need to have faith. I am acutely aware how wishful this statement sounds. But this faith, the belief in mean reversion, has to be deeply ingrained in our psyche. It will allow us to remain rational when people around us are not. 

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#5: The Six Commandments of Value Investing

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EDITOR’S NOTE: Although it has been some time since speaking live with busy colleague Vitaliy Katsenelson CFA, I review his internet material frequently and appreciate this ME-P series contribution. I encourage all ME-P readers to do the same and consider his value investing insights carefully.

By Vitaliy Katsenelson, CFA

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5. Risk is a permanent loss of capital (not volatility)

Conventional wisdom views volatility as risk. Not value investors. We befriend volatility, embrace it, and try to take advantage of it. For someone who has not researched a company, it is not readily apparent whether a decline in shares is temporary or permanent. After all, if you don’t know what the company is worth, the quoted price becomes the quotient of intrinsic value. If you do know what the company is worth, then the change in intrinsic value is all that is going to matter. The price quoted on the exchange will be your friend, allowing you to take advantage of the difference between intrinsic value and quoted stock price. If the quoted stock price is significantly cheaper than your estimated intrinsic value, you buy it (or buy more of it if you already own it). If the opposite is true, you sell it.

What is a company worth?

Determining the intrinsic value requires a combination of art and science, in that order – it is not quoted on the exchanges. We go about this the same way a businessman would figure how much he’d want to pay for a gas station or a McDonald’s franchise. Analysis of each company will be different, but at the core we estimate the cash flows the business will produce for shareholders in the long run (at least ten years) and what the business will be worth then (based on our estimate of its earnings power at the time). The combination of the two provides us an approximation of what the business is worth now. To further embed “the right” type of risk analysis into our investment operating system, we build financial models. Models help us to understand businesses better and provide insights as to which metrics matter and which don’t. They allow us to stress test the business: We don’t just look at the upside but spend a lot of times looking at the downside – we try to “kill” the business. We look at known risks and try to imagine unknown ones; we try to quantify their impact on cash flows. This “killing” helps to us understand how much of a discount (margin of safety) we should demand to what the business is worth. By applying this discount to fair value, we arrive at a buy price. For every stock we buy we probably look at a few dozen (at least).

For instance, if we are looking at a company that is selling products or services to consumers, we’ll be focusing on customer-acquisition costs. We try to drill down to the essential operating metrics of each company. If it’s a convenience store retailer, we’ll look into gallons of gas sold and profit per gallon. If it’s an oil driller, we’ll look at utilization rates, rigs in service, average revenue per rig per day. If it’s a pharmaceuticals company, we’ll have revenue lines for each major drug it sells and model the company for the eventuality that patents will run out. (Revenues usually decline 80-90% when a patent expires).

These models help us to understand the economics of the business. We usually build two type of models. We start with what we call the “tablecloth” model. This is a very detailed, in-depth model that zeros in on different aspects of the business. But the risk we run with a tablecloth model is that we get lost in the trees and forget about the forest.

This brings us to our “napkin” model. It’s a much simpler and smaller model that focuses only on the essentials of the business. It is easier to build the tablecloth model than the “napkin.” If we can build a napkin model, that means we understand the drivers of the business – we understand what matters. Models are important because they help us remain rational. It is only the matter of time before a stock we own will “blow up” (or, in layman’s terms, decline).

In this type of analysis, what happens this month, this quarter, or even this year is only important in the context of the long run – unless the company’s good or bad earnings report in any quarter changes our assumptions on the company’s long-term cash flows. If you methodically focus on what the company is worth and if your Total IQ is maximized, then price fluctuations are just noise. Volatility becomes your friend because you can rationally take advantage of it. It’s an under-appreciated gift from Mr. Market.

Side Note: As an advisor, I feel it is one of my great responsibilities to be an honest and clear communicator. There is an asymmetry of information between us and our clients. We have invested weeks and months of research into the analysis of each stock; therefore, we have a good idea what each company is worth. Our clients have not done this research, and they should not have to – that is what they hired us to do.This is why we pour our heart and soul into our quarterly letters – we want to close this informational gap and so we try as hard as we can to explain what we think the companies in our portfolio are worth. Our letters are often 15-20 pages long. 

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The Active v. Passive Investing Dichotomy

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The Controversy Continues

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[By Amaury S. Cifuentes CFP® CMP®]

Physician and all investors are often overloaded with information regarding this debate, and many advisors differ in the conclusion of which strategy is best.

Stock Picking

Stock picking is typically a waist of time and few investors or advisors demonstrate the constant ability in picking winning stocks. Timing the market also becomes difficult and typically has negative effects in a portfolio. Investors will also find that they will usually have very little luck finding money mangers that can consistently out perform the market. Investors over a long period of investing time horizon would benefit from passive investing vs. active trading, with some exceptions.

Active Investors

Active investors spend time analyzing stocks or mutual funds based on a mismatch of the price relative to its value. In an efficient market, there is little or no mismatch between the current price and the true value of the investment. Also, real cost and expenses of active management are rarely calculated;  some consider the stock market a zero sum game, if the total market returns eleven percent then the investors must deduct the cost of the transaction, which would lower their return relative to the market.

Mutual Fund Performance

For example, Mark Carhart’s comprehensive study of 1,892 mutual funds title “On Persistence in Mutual Fund Performance” showed that on average mutual fund manager under performs by 1.8% to their relative index.  In addition, William Sharpe Nobel laureate article “The Arithmetic of Active Management” stated that after cost, the return of active management dollars would be less than passive dollars.

Market Timing

Timing of markets is also very difficult. Timing the market can be defined by moving your asset from risky to non risky assets before negative events happen. The Random Walk Theory basically states that there are no patterns in the stock market prices. Basically, information moves the markets and information is random, so logic would suggest that timing the markets effectively is futile. Many reports demonstrate this effect, for example, a report form Javier Estrada, a finance professor at IESE Business School in Barcelona, Spain. He studied the DJIA form 1900-2008 and concluded that if you subtracted the ten best days from the market two thirds of the cumulative gains would disappear (10/29694 or .03%), almost impossible to predict even by the most astute investors. Much more extensive research showing that market timing does not work, Wei Jiang paper “A Nonparametric Test of Market Timing” concluded that timing ability on average is negative. There are countless of studies showing that there is no evidence that timing the markets can produce superior returns.

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Investing Difficulties Continue

To make thing even more difficult, investors that seek profession help cannot guarantee that the active managers they hire can consistently over long period of time outperform their benchmarks.  Obviously, it is evident that past performance is no indication of future results as advertised by all financial institution, and most active managers who outperform their bench market do not do consistently over long periods of time. John Boggle’s comprehensive study in 1992 of the Forbes Honor Roll title “Selecting Equity Mutual Funds” concluded that after commissions loads were taken into account the honor roll under performed the market between 1974 and 1990 by a difference of 193.75% cumulative.

Of Professor Burton Malkiel

Furthermore, investors over long periods of time will find that stock picking, timing the market and selecting active managers do not produce superior returns. John Stossel of ABC’s 20/20 interview Professor Burton Malkiel of Princeton University and stated in the interview that “All the information an analyst can learn about a company, from balance sheets to marketing material, is already built into the stock price, because all of the other thousands of analysts have the same information. What they don’t have is the knowledge that will move the stock, knowledge such as a news event, which is unpredictable and impossible to forecast.”

Assessment

Physicians and all investors may be better off concentrating on asset allocation, picking low cost investment, deciding on tactical or strategic rebalancing and implementing models like the three factor model as pioneered by Professor Eugene Fama and Professor Kenneth French in lieu active management.

Conclusion

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Why You CAN’T Turn Your Roth IRA Into a Billion-Dollar Tax Shelter

By Nadia Sussman, Sherene Strausberg and Justin Elliott

ProPublica is a Pulitzer Prize-winning investigative newsroom. Sign up for The Big Story newsletter to receive stories like this one in your inbox. Series: The Secret IRS Files Inside the Tax Records of the .001%

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The Roth IRA: What It Is and How It Works | Personal ...

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Last week, ProPublica published the story of how PayPal co-founder and tech investor Peter Thiel was able to turn a Roth IRA initially worth around $2,000 into a jaw-dropping $5 billion tax-free retirement stash in just 20 years.

The story is even more remarkable because Congress created the Roth IRA in 1997 to encourage middle-class Americans to save for their golden years. Most Americans have struggled to do even that; the average account was worth about $39,000 in 2018. But Thiel and other billionaires have managed to turn their mundane Roths into giant onshore tax shelters.

Thiel was able to launch his Roth into the stratosphere through a complicated strategy involving the purchase of nonpublic stock at bargain prices — the kind of deal most people can’t access. Experts say it risked running afoul of rules designed to prevent IRAs from becoming illegal tax shelters. (Thiel’s spokesman didn’t respond to questions.)

Other ultrawealthy Americans have used different means to build Roths worth tens or hundreds of millions of dollars. Senate Finance Chairman Ron Wyden is now looking at how to end the use of the Roth as “yet another tax dodge that allows mega millionaires and billionaires to avoid paying taxes.”

How are they able to do it while you can’t? Check out our explainer of one way the Roth works for the ultrawealthy and not for you.

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Citation: https://www.r2library.com/Resource/Title/0826102549

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PORTFOLIO: How to Build One for Today’s Crazy Stock Markets

Insights For Doctors and All Investors

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Amazon.com: Vitaliy Katsenelson: Books, Biography, Blog, Audiobooks, Kindle

By Vitaliy Katsenelson CFA

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NOTE: This piece is a little more technical, and contains a bit more stock-market jargon, than most essays you get from me. While how we build portfolios is important to us and our clients, we realize that the puts and takes might bore many readers.

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SECOND OPINIONS: Physician Financial Planning, Investing, Medical Practice Management and Business Valuations; etc!

BY DR. DAVID EDWARD MARCINKO MBA CMP

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Financial Planning for Medical Professionals

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CONTACT: Ann Miller RN MHA

email: MarcinkoAdvisors@msn.com

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FOR DOCTORS ONLY: Secure an Unbiased Second Advisory Fiduciary Opinion

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Dr. David Edward Marcinko MBA CMP®

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FINANCIAL PLANNING

CAREER DEVELOPMENT

MEDICAL PRACTICE BUY IN / OUT

INVESTMENT ANALYSIS

PORTFOLIO MANAGEMENT

MERGERS AND ACQUISITIONS

PRACTICE APPRAISALS AND VALUATIONS

RETIREMENT PLANNING

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CONTACT: Ann Miller RN MHA

EMAIL: MarcinkoAdvisors@msn.com

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How [DOCTORS] Construct Investment Portfolios That Protect Them

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ASK AN ADVISOR

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Vitaliy N. Katsenelson, CFA - YouTube

By Vitaliy N. Katsenelson, CFA

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Question: How do you construct investment portfolios and determine position sizes (weights) of individual stocks?

Answer: I wanted to discuss this topic for a long time, so here is a very in-depth answer.
CITE: https://www.r2library.com/Resource/Title/082610254

For a while in the value investing community the number of positions you held was akin to bragging on your manhood– the fewer positions you owned the more macho an investor you were. I remember meeting two investors at a value conference. At the time they had both had “walk on water” streaks of returns. One had a seven-stock portfolio, the other held three stocks. Sadly, the financial crisis humbled both – the three-stock guy suffered irreparable losses and went out of business (losing most of his clients’ money). The other, after living through a few incredibly difficult years and an investor exodus, is running a more diversified portfolio today.

Under-diversification: Is dangerous, because a few mistakes or a visit from Bad Luck may prove to be fatal to the portfolio.

On the other extreme, you have a mutual fund industry where it is common to see portfolios with hundreds of stocks (I am generalizing). There are many reasons for that. Mutual funds have an army of analysts who need to be kept busy; their voices need to be heard; and thus their stock picks need to find their way into the portfolio (there are a lot of internal politics in this portfolio). These portfolios are run against benchmarks; thus their construction starts to resemble Noah’s Ark, bringing on board a few animals (stocks) from each industry. Also, the size of the fund may limit its ability to buy large positions in small companies.

There are several problems with this approach. First, and this is the important one, it breeds indifference: If a 0.5% position doubles or gets halved, it will have little impact on the portfolio. The second problem is that it is difficult to maintain research on all these positions. Yes, a mutual fund will have an army of analysts following each industry, but the portfolio manager is the one making the final buy and sell decisions. Third, the 75th idea is probably not as good as the 30th, especially in an overvalued market where good ideas are scarce.

Then you have index funds. On the surface they are over-diversified, but they don’t suffer from the over-diversification headaches of managed funds. In fact, index funds are both over-diversified and under-diversified. Let’s take the S&P 500 – the most popular of the bunch. It owns the 500 largest companies in the US. You’d think it was a diversified portfolio, right? Well, kind of. The top eight companies account for more than 25% of the index. Also, the construction of the index favors stocks that are usually more expensive or that have recently appreciated (it is market-cap-weighted); thus you are “diversified” across a lot of overvalued stocks.

If you own hundreds of securities that are exposed to the same idiosyncratic risk, then are you really diversified?

Our portfolio construction process is built from a first-principles perspective. If a Martian visited Earth and decided to try his hand at value investing, knowing nothing about common (usually academic) conventions, how would he construct a portfolio?

We want to have a portfolio where we own not too many stocks, so that every decision we make matters – we have both skin and soul in the game in each decision. But we don’t want to own so few that a small number of stocks slipping on a banana will send us into financial ruin.

In our portfolio construction, we are trying to maximize both our IQ and our EQ (emotional quotient). Too few stocks will decapitate our EQ – we won’t be able to sleep well at night, as the relatively large impact of a low-probability risk could have a devastating impact on the portfolio. I wrote about the importance of good sleep before (link here). It’s something we take seriously at IMA.

Holding too many stocks will result in both a low EQ and low IQ. It is very difficult to follow and understand the drivers of the business of hundreds of stocks, therefore a low IQ about individual positions will eventually lead to lower portfolio EQ. When things turn bad, a constant in investing, you won’t intimately know your portfolio – you’ll be surrounded by a lot of (tiny-position) strangers.

Portfolio construction is a very intimate process. It is unique to one’s EQ and IQ. Our typical portfolios have 20–30 stocks. Our “focused” portfolios have 12–15 stocks (they are designed for clients where we represent only a small part of their total wealth). There is nothing magical about these numbers – they are just the Goldilocks levels for us, for our team and our clients. They allow room for bad luck, but at the same time every decision we make matters.

Now let’s discuss position sizing. We determine position sizing through a well-defined quantitative process. The goals of this process are to achieve the following: Shift the portfolio towards higher-quality companies with higher returns. Take emotion out of the portfolio construction process. And finally, insure healthy diversification.

Our research process is very qualitative: We read annual reports, talk to competitors and ex-employees, build financial models, and debate stocks among ourselves and our research network. In our valuation analysis we try to kill the business – come up with worst-case fair value (where a company slips on multiple bananas) and reasonable fair value. We also assign a quality rating to each company in the portfolio. Quality is absolute for us – we don’t allow low-quality companies in, no matter how attractive the valuation is (though that doesn’t mean we don’t occasionally misjudge a company’s quality).

The same company, at different stock prices, will merit a higher or lower position size. In other words, if company A is worth (fair value) $100, at $60 it will be a 3% position and at $40 it will be a 5% position. Company B, of a lower quality than A but also worth $100, will be a 2% position at $60 and a 4% position at $40 (I just made up these numbers for illustration purposes). In other words, if there are two companies that have similar expected returns, but one is of higher quality than the other, our system will automatically allocate a larger percentage of the portfolio to the higher-quality company. If you repeat this exercise on a large number of stocks, you cannot but help to shift your portfolio to higher-quality, higher-return stocks. It’s a system of meritocracy where we marry quality and return.

Let’s talk about diversification. We don’t go out of our way to diversify the portfolio. At least, not in a traditional sense. We are not going to allocate 7% to mining stocks because that is the allocation in the index or they are negatively correlated to soft drink companies. (We don’t own either and are not sure if the above statement is even true, but you get the point.) We try to assemble a portfolio of high-quality companies that are attractively priced, whose businesses march to different drummers and are not impacted by the same risks.  Just as bank robbers rob banks because that is where the money is, value investors gravitate towards sectors where the value is. To keep our excitement (our emotions) in check, and to make sure we are not overexposed to a single industry, we set hard limits of industry exposure. These limits range from 10%–20%. We also set limits of country exposure, ranging from 7%–30% (ex-US).

CONCLUSION

In portfolio construction, our goal is not to limit the volatility of the portfolio but to reduce true risk – the permanent loss of capital. We are constantly thinking about the types of risks we are taking. Do we have too much exposure to a weaker or stronger dollar? To higher or lower interest rates? Do we have too much exposure to federal government spending? I know, risk is a four-letter word that has lost its meaning. But not to us. Low interest rates may have time-shifted risk into the future, but they haven’t cured it.

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PODCAST: The Real Secret About Why Corporate Mergers Fail

AN AUDIO PRESENTATION

 

By Vitaliy Katsenelson CFA

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Corporate acquisitions often fail for one simple reason: the buyer pays too much. An old Wall Street adage comes to mind: Price is what you pay, value is what you get.

It all starts with a control premium

When we purchase shares of a stock, we pay a price that is within pennies of the last trade. When a company is acquired, the purchase price is negotiated during long dinners at fine restaurants and comes with a control premium that is higher than the latest stock quotation.

How much above?

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Risk Management, Liability Insurance, and Asset Protection Strategies for Doctors and Advisors: Best Practices from Leading Consultants and Certified Medical Planners™8Comprehensive Financial Planning Strategies for Doctors and Advisors: Best Practices from Leading Consultants and Certified Medical Planners™

 

Comprehensive Financial Planning and Risk Management Strategies for Doctors and their Advisors

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Managing for Endowment Fund Portfolio Alpha

Understanding Non-Systematic Return on Investment

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[By Dr. David Edward Marcinko MBA]

According to Wayne Firebaugh CPA, CFP®, CMP™ alpha measures non-systematic return on investment [ROI], or the return that cannot be attributed to the market.

It shows the difference between a fund’s actual return and its expected performance given the level of systematic (or market) risk (as measured by beta).

Example

For example, a fund with a beta of 1.2 in a market that returns 10% would be expected to earn 12%. If, in fact, the fund earns a return of 14%, it then has an alpha of 2 which would suggest that the manager has added value. Conversely, a return below that expected given the fund’s beta would suggest that the manager diminished value.

In a truly efficient market, no manager should be able to consistently generate positive alpha. In such a market, the endowment manager would likely employ a passive strategy that seeks to replicate index returns. Although there is substantial evidence of efficient domestic markets, there is also evidence to suggest that certain managers do repeat their positive alpha performance.

In fact, a 2002 study by Roger Ibbotson and Amita Patel found that “the phenomenon of persistence does exist in domestic equity funds.” The same study suggested that 65% of mutual funds with the highest style-adjusted alpha repeated with positive alpha performances in the following year.

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More Research

Additional research suggests that active management can add value and achieve positive alpha in concentrated portfolios.

A pre 2008 crash study of actively managed mutual funds found that “on average, higher industry concentration improves the performance of the funds. The most concentrated funds generate, after adjusting for risk … the highest performance. They yield an average abnormal return [alpha] of 2.56% per year before deducting expenses and 1.12% per year after deducting expenses.”

FutureMetrics

FutureMetrics, a pension plan consulting firm, calculated that in 2006 the median pension fund achieved record alpha of 3.7% compared to a 60/40 benchmark portfolio, the best since the firm began calculating return data in 1988. Over longer periods of time, an endowment manager’s ability to achieve positive alpha for their entire portfolio is more hotly debated.  Dimensional Fund Advisors, a mutual fund firm specializing in a unique form of passive management, compiled FutureMetrics data on 192 pension funds for the period of 1988 through 2005.

Their research showed that over this period of time approximately 75% of the pension funds underperformed the 60/40 benchmark. The end result is that many endowments will use a combination of active and passive management approaches with respect to some portion of the domestic equity segment of their allocation.

Assessment

One approach is known as the “core and satellite” method in which a “core” investment into a passive index is used to capture the broader market’s performance while concentrated satellite positions are taken in an attempt to “capture” alpha. Since other asset classes such as private equity, foreign equity, and real assets are often viewed to be less efficient, the endowment manager will typically use active management to obtain positive alpha from these segments.

Notes:

  • Ibbotson, R.G. and Patel, A.K. Do Winners Repeat with Style? Summary of Findings – Ibbotson & Associates, Chicago (February 2002).
  • Kacperczyk, M.T., Sialm, C., and Lu Zheng. On Industry Concentration of Actively Managed Equity Mutual Funds. University of Michigan Business School. (November 2002).
  • 2007 Annual US Corporate Pension Plan Best and Worst Investment Performance Report.  FutureMetrics, April 20, 2007.

Conclusion

Your thoughts and comments on this ME-P are appreciated. Feel free to review our top-left column, and top-right sidebar materials, links, URLs and related websites, too. Then, subscribe to the ME-P. It is fast, free and secure.

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PHYSICIANS BEWARE: Traditional Financial Planning “Rules of Thumb”

DOCTORS AND MEDICAL PROFESSIONALS BEWARE?

We ARE Different

By Dr. David E. Marcinko MBA CMP®

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  • While financial planning rules of thumbs are useful to people as general guidelines, they may be too oversimplified in many situations, leading to underestimating or overestimating an individual’s needs. This may be especially true for physicians and many medical professionals. Rules of thumb do not account for specific circumstances or factors occurring at a particular time, or that could change over time, which should be considered for making sound financial decisions.
  • Great Health Industry Resignation: https://medicalexecutivepost.com/2021/12/12/healthcare-industry-hit-with-the-great-resignation-retirement/

For example, in a tight job market, an emergency fund amounting to six months of household expenses does not consider the possibility of extended unemployment. I’ve always suggested 2-3 years for doctors. Venture capitalist lay-offs of physicians during the pandemic confirm this often criticized benchmark opinion of mine.

As another example, buying life insurance based on a multiple of income does not account for the specific needs of the surviving family, which include a mortgage, the need for college funding and an extended survivor income for a non-working spouse. Again a huge home mortgage, or several children or dependents, may be the financial bane of physician colleagues and life insurance.

CITE: https://www.r2library.com/Resource/Title/082610254

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EXAMPLES: Old/New Rules

  • A home purchase should cost less than an amount equal to two and a half years of your annual income. I think physicians in practice for 3-5 years might go up to 3.5X annual income; ceteras paribus.
  • Save at least 10-15% of your take-home income for retirement. Seek to save 20% or more.
  • Have at least five times your gross salary in life insurance death benefit. Consider 10X this amount in term insurance if young, and/or with several children or other special circumstances.
  • Pay off your highest-interest credit cards first. Agreed.
  • The stock market has a long-term average return of 10%. Agreed, but appreciated risk adjusted rates of return..
  • You should have an emergency fund equal to six months’ worth of household expenses. Doctors should seek 2-3 years.
  • Your age represents the percentage of bonds you should have in your portfolio. Risk tolerance and assets may be more vital.
  • Your age subtracted from 100 represents the percentage of stocks you should have in your portfolio. Risk tolerance and assets may still be more vital.
  • A balanced portfolio is 60% stocks, 40% bonds. With historic low interest rates, cash may be a more flexible alternative than bonds; also avoid most bond mutual funds as they usually never mature.

There are also rules of thumb for determining how much net worth you will need to retire comfortably at a normal retirement age. Here is the calculation that Investopedia uses to determine your net worth:

Compensation in the Physician Specialties: Mostly Stable - NEJM  CareerCenter Resources

RULES 72, 78 and 115: https://medicalexecutivepost.com/2022/01/30/the-rules-of-72-78-and-115/

INVITATION: https://medicalexecutivepost.com/2021/05/08/invite-dr-marcinko-to-your-next-big-event/

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About Securities Order and Position Types

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A Primer for Physician Investors and Medical Professionals

By: DR. David Edward Marcinko; MBA, CMP™

[Editor-in-Chief] http://www.CertifiedMedicalPlanner.org

[PART 6 OF 8]

BC Dr. Marcinko

NOTE: This is an eight part ME-P series based on a weekend lecture I gave more than a decade ago to an interested group of graduate, business and medical school students. The material is a bit dated and some facts and specifics may have changed since then. But, the overall thought-leadership information of the essay remains interesting and informative. We trust you will enjoy it.

Introduction

At this point  in our long ME-P essay, it is important to understand the different types of orders and positions that can be used to buy and sell securities from the specialist.

Market Order:

A market order is an order to be executed at the best possible price at the time the order reaches the floor. Market orders are the most common of all orders. The greatest advantage of the market order is speed. The doctor specifies no price in this type of order, he merely orders his broker to sell or buy at the best possible price, regardless of what it may be. The best possible price on a buy is the lowest possible price. The best possible price on a sell is the highest possible price. In other words, if a medical professional customer is buying, he logically wants to pay as little as possible, but he is not going to quibble over price. He wants the stock now, whatever it takes to get it. If he’s a seller, the doctor client wants to receive as much as possible, but will not quibble, he wants out, and will take what he can get, right now. No other type of order can be executed so rapidly.

Some market orders are executed in less than one minute from the time the broker phones in the order. Because the investor has specified no price, a market order will always be executed. The doctor is literally saying, “I will pay whatever it takes, or accept whatever is offered”.

Limit Order:

The chief characteristic of a limit order is that the doctor decides in advance on a price at which he decides to trade. He believes that his price is one that will be reached in the market in reasonable time. He is willing to wait to do business until he has obtained his price even at the risk his order may not be executed either in the near future or at all. In the execution of a limit order, the broker is to execute it at the limit price or better. Better, means that a limit order to buy is executed at the customer’s price limit or lower, in a limit order to sell, at price limit or higher. If the broker can obtain a more favorable price for his doctor customer than the one specified, he is required to do so.

Order Length:

Now, even though the doctor has given his price limit, we need to know the length of effectiveness of the order. Is the order good for today only? If so, it is a day order, it automatically expires at the end of the day.  Alternatively, the doctor may enter an open or, “good until canceled” order. This type of order is used when the doctor believes that the fluctuations in the market price of the stock in which he’s interested will be large enough in the future that they will cause the market price to either fall to, or rise to, his desired price, i.e. his limit price. He is reasonably sure of his judgment and is in no hurry to have/his order executed. He knows what he wants to pay or receive and is willing to wait for an indefinite period.

Years ago, such orders were carried for long periods of time without being reconfirmed. This was very unsatisfactory for all parties concerned.  A doctor would frequently forget his order existed and, if the price ever reached his limit and the order was executed, the resulting trade might not be one he wished to make. To avoid the problem, open (GTC) orders must be reconfirmed by the doctor customer each six months. Does that mean six months after the order is entered? …No! The exchange has appointed the last business day of April and the last business day of October as the two dates per year when all open orders must be reconfirmed.

Example: Dr. Smith wants to buy 100 shares of XYZ. The price has been fluctuating between 50 and 55. He places a limit order to buy at 51, although the current market price is 54. Limit orders to buy (buy limit orders) are always placed below the current market. To do otherwise makes no sense. It is possible that, within a reasonable time, the price will drop to 51 and his broker can purchase the stock for him at that price. If the broker can purchase the stock at less that 51, that would certainly be fine with the doctor customer since he wants to pay no more than 51. A sell limit order works in reverse and is always placed above the current market price.

Example: Dr. Smith wants to sell 100 shares of XYZ stock. The order is 54. A sell limit order is place at 56. Sell limit orders are always placed above the market price. As soon as the pride rises to 56, if it ever does, the broker will execute it at 56 or higher. In no case will it be executed at less than 56.

The advantage of the limit order is that the doctor has a chance to buy at less or to sell at more than the current market price prevailing when he placed the order. He assumes that the market price will become more favorable in the future than it is at the time the order is placed. The word” chance ” is important. There is also the “chance” that the order will not be executed at all. The doctor just mentioned, who wanted to buy at 51, may never get his order filled since the price may not fall that low.  If he wanted to sell at 56, the order may also not ever be executed since it might not rise that high during the time period the order is in effect.

Stop Orders:

A very important type of order is the stop order, frequently called a stop-loss order. There are two distinct types of stop orders. One is the stop order to sell, called a sell stop, and the other is a stop order to buy, called a buy stop. Either type might be thought of as a suspended market order; it goes into effect only if the stock reaches or passes through a certain price.

The fact that the market price reaches or goes through the specified stop price does not mean the broker will obtain execution at the exact stop price. It merely means that the order becomes a market order and will be executed at the best possible price thereafter. The price specified on a stop order bears a relationship to the current market price exactly opposite to that on a limit order. Whereas a sell limit is placed at a price above the current market, a sell stop is placed at a price below the current market. Similarly, while a buy limit is placed at a price below the current market, a buy stop is placed at a price above the current market. Why would a doctor investor use a stop order?

There are two established uses for stop orders. One of them might be called protective, the other might be called preventive.

Protective: This order protects a doctors’ existing profit on a stock currently owned.

For example, a doctor purchases a stock at 60. It rises to 70. He has made a paper profit of $10 per share. He realizes that the market may reverse itself. He therefore gives his broker a stop order to sell at 67. If the reversal does occur and the price drops to 67 or less, the order immediately becomes a market order. The stock is disposed of at the best possible price. This may be exactly 67, or it may be slightly above or below that figure. Why? …Because what happened at 67 was that his order became a market order; the price he actually received was dependent upon the next activity in the market. Let us suppose that the sale was made at 66 1/2. The doctor customer made a gross profit of 6 1/2 points per share on his original purchase. Without the stop order, the stock may have dropped considerably below that before the customer could have placed a market order and his profit might have been less or, in fact, he might have even sold at a loss.

Preventive:

A doctor purchases 100 shares of a stock at 30. He obviously anticipates that the price of the stock will rise in the near future (why else would he buy?). However, he realizes that his judgment may be faulty. He therefore, at the time of purchase, places a sell stop order at a price somewhat below his purchase price, for example, at 28. As yet, he has made neither profit nor loss; he’s merely acting to prevent a loss that might follow if he made the wrong bet and the stock does fall in price. If the stock does drop, the doctor knows that once it gets as low as 28, a market order will be turned in for him and, therefore, he will lose only 2 points or thereabout. It might have been much more had he not used the sell stop.

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Miscellaneous Orders and Positions

Beside market, limit  and stop orders, there are some other miscellaneous orders to know.

A stop limit order is a stop order that, once triggered or activated, becomes a limit order. Realize that it is possible for a stop limit to be triggered and not executed, as the limit price specified by the doctor may not be available.

In addition, there are all or none and fill or kill orders, and even though both require the entire order to be filled, there are distinct differences. An all or none (AON) is an order in which the broker is directed to fill the entire order or none of it. A fill or kill (FOK) is an order either to buy or to sell a security in which the broker is directed to attempt to fill the entire”‘ amount of the order immediately and in full, or that it be canceled.

The difference between an all or none and a fill or kill order is that with an all or none order, immediate execution is not required, while immediate execution is a critical component of the fill or kill. Be cause of the immediacy requirement, FOK orders are never found on the specialist’s book. Another difference is that AON orders are only permitted for bonds, not stocks, while FOK orders may be used for either.

Also, there exists an immediate or cancel order (IOC), which is an order to buy or sell a security in which the broker is directed to attempt to fill immediately as much of the order as possible and cancel any part remaining. This type of order differs from a fill or kill order which requires the entire order to be filled. An IOC order will permit a partial fill. Because of the immediacy requirement, IOC and FOK orders are never found on the specialist’s book.

Long and Short Positions

A long buy position means that shares are for sale from a market makers inventory, or owned by the medical investor, outright. Market makers take long positions when customers and other firms wish to sell, and they take short positions when customers and other firms want to buy in quantities larger than the market maker’s inventory. By always being ready, willing, and able to handle orders in this way, market makers assure the investing public of a ready market in the securities in which they are interested. When a security can be bought and sold at firm prices very quickly and easily, the security is said to have a high degree of liquidity, also known as marketability.

A short position investor seeks to make a profit by participating in the decline in the market price of a security.

Now, let’s see how these terms, long and short, apply to transactions by medical investors, rather than market makers, in the securities markets.

When a doctor buys any security, he is said to be taking a long position in that security. This means the investor is an owner of the security. Why does a doctor take a long position in a security? Beside, receiving dividend income, to make a profit from an increase in the market price. Once the security has risen sufficiently in price to satisfy the investor’s profit needs, the investor will liquidate his long position, or sell his stock. This would officially be known as a long sale of stock, though few people in the securities business use the label “long sale”. This is the manner in which the above investor had made a profit is the traditional method used; buy low, sell high.

Let’s look at an actual investment in General Motors to investigate this principle further. A medical investor has taken a long position in 100 shares of General Motors stock at a price of $70 per share. This means that the manner in which he can do that is by placing a market order which will be executed at the best “available market price at the time, or by the / placing of a buy limit order with a limit price of $70 per share. The investor firmly believes, on the basis of reports that he has read about the automobile industry and General Motors specifically, that at $70 a share, General Motors is a real bargain. He believes that based on its current level of performance, it should be selling for a price of between $80 and $85 per share. But, the doctor investor has a dilemma. He feels certain that the price is going to rise but he cannot watch his computer, or call his broker, every hour of every day. The reason he can’t watch is because patients have to be seen in the office. The only people who watch a computer screen all day are those in the offices of brokerage firms (stock broker registered representatives), and doctor day traders, among others.

In the above example, with a sell limit order, if the doctor investor was willing to settle for a profit of $12 per share, what order would he place at this time? If you said, “sell at $82 good ’til canceled”, you are correct. Why GTC rather than a day order? Because our doctor investor knows that General Motors is probably not going to rise from $70 to $82 in one day. If he had placed an order to sell at $82 without the GTC qualification, his order would have been canceled at the end of this trading day. He would have had to re-enter the order each morning until he got an execution at 82. Marking the order GTC (or open) relieves him of any need to replace the order every morning. Several weeks later, when General Motors has reached $82 per share in the market, his order to sell at 82 is executed. The medical investor has bought at 70 and sold at 82 and realized a $12 per share profit for his efforts.

Let’s suppose that the medical investor, who has just established a $12 per share profit, has evaluated the performance of General Motors common stock by looking at the market performance over a period of many years. Let’s further assume that the investor has found by evaluating the market price statistics of General Motors is that the pattern of movement of General Motors is cyclical. By cyclical, we mean that it moves up and down according to a regular pattern of behavior. Let’s say the investor has observed that in the past, General Motors had repeated a pattern of moving from prices in the $60 per share range as a low, to a high of approximately $90 per share. Further, our investor has observed that this pattern of performance takes approximately 10 to l2 months to do a full cycle; that is, it moves from about 60 to about 90 and back to about 60 within a period of roughly l2 months. If this pattern repeats itself continually, the investor would be well advised to buy the stock at prices in the low to mid 60’s hold onto it until it moves well into the 80’s, and then sell his long position at a profit. However, what this means is that our investor is going to be invested in General Motors only 6 months of each year. That is, he will invest when the price is low and, usually within half a year, it will reach its high before turning around and going back to its low again. How can the doctor investor make a profit not only on the rise in price of General Motors in the first 6 months of the cycle, but on the fall in price of General Motors in the second half of the cycle? One technique that is available is the use of the short sale.

The Short Sale

If a doctor investor feels that GM is at its peak of $ 90 per share, he may borrow 100 shares from his brokerage firm and sell the 100 shares of borrowed GM at $ 90. This is selling stock that is not owned and is known as a short sale. The transaction ends when the doctor returns the borrowed securities at a lower price and pockets the difference as a profit. In this case, the doctor investor has sold high, and bought low.

Odd Lots

Most of the thousands of buy and sell orders executed on a typical day on the NYSE are in 100 share or multi-100 share lots. These are called round lots. Some of the inactive stocks traded at post 30, the non-horseshoe shaped post in the northwest corner of the exchange, are traded in 70 share round lots due to their inactivity. So, while a round lot is normally 700 shares, there are cases where it could be 10 shares. Any trade for less than a round lot is known as an odd lot. The execution of odd lot orders is somewhat different than round lots and needs explanation.

When a stock broker receives an odd lot order from one of his doctor customers, the order is processed in the same manner as any other order. However, when it gets to the floor, the commission broker knows that this is an order that will not be part of the regular auction market. He takes the order to the specialist in that stock and leaves the order with the specialist. One of the clerks assisting the specialist records the order and waits for the next auction to occur in that particular stock. As soon as a round lot trade occurs in that particular stock as a result of an auction at the post, which may occur seconds later, minutes later, or maybe not until the next day, the clerk makes a record of the trade price.

Every odd lot order that has been received since the last round lot trade, whether an order to buy or sell, is then executed at the just noted round lot price, the price at which the next round lot traded after receipt of the customer’s odd lot order, plus or minus the specialist’s “cut “.  Just like everything else he does, the specialist doesn’t work for nothing. Generally, he will add 1/8 of a point to the price per share of every odd lot buy order and reduce the proceeds of each odd lot sale order by 1/8 per share. This is the compensation he earns for the effort of breaking round lots into odd lots. Remember, odd lots are never auctioned but, there can be no odd lot trade unless a round lot trades after receipt of the odd lot order.

Part 5 of 8: About Securities “Shelf Registration”

Conclusion

Your thoughts and comments on this ME-P are appreciated. Feel free to review our top-left column, and top-right sidebar materials, links, URLs and related websites, too. Then, subscribe to the ME-P. It is fast, free and secure.

Speaker: If you need a moderator or speaker for an upcoming event, Dr. David E. Marcinko; MBA – Publisher-in-Chief of the Medical Executive-Post – is available for seminar or speaking engagements. Contact: MarcinkoAdvisors@msn.com

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On Financial Futures for Physicians

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What it is – How it works?

By Tim McIntosh MBA CFP CMP® MPH www.SIPLLC.com

Courtesy: http://www.CertifiedMedicalPlanner.org

TMA future is a financial derivative that represents the purchase of a particular investment at a predetermined date. Futures are traded on a wide range of investments (e.g., baskets of stocks, interest rates, currencies and commodities) and are useful tools for controlling the risk of cash flow timing for those that wish to lock in a particular price for a security.

Futures versus Options

Likewise, they also provide some insight as to the expected future price in the market of the security.

The key difference between futures and options is that futures obligate both parties to make the agreed upon transaction, whereas options give the option holder the right, but not the requirement, to make the transaction.

Trades

Futures are typically traded on an organized exchange, such as the Chicago Board of Trade (e.g., interest rate and stock index futures) or the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (e.g., foreign exchange and stock futures). The design of the contract traded on an exchange typically includes a pre-defined contract size and delivery month.

Margin Maintenance

Also, futures transactions generally require maintaining a margin deposit (i.e., a fraction of the trade value held in reserve to help ensure the final settlement at the contract settlement date) and the recognition of gains and losses on a daily basis with movements in contract prices.

Japan and world markets tumbling - dollar stronger

Assessment

The pricing of a futures contract is based upon the price of the underlying security (e.g., the S&P 500 Index price), the opportunity cost of cash (e.g., current borrowing rates) and any distributions expected from the security over the period (e.g., dividends).

More

MORE: Futures

About the Author

Timothy J. McIntosh is Chief Investment Officer and founder of SIPCO.  As chairman of the firm’s investment committee, he oversees all aspects of major client accounts and serves as lead portfolio manager for the firm’s equity and bond portfolios. Mr. McIntosh was a Professor of Finance at Eckerd College from 1998 to 2008. He is the author of The Bear Market Survival Guide and the The Sector Strategist

Conclusion

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Speaker: If you need a moderator or speaker for an upcoming event, Dr. David E. Marcinko; MBA – Publisher-in-Chief of the Medical Executive-Post – is available for seminar or speaking engagements. Contact: MarcinkoAdvisors@msn.com

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Financial Monte Carlo Simulation’s FLAW and FIXES

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Physicians Must Understand Deus ex Machina

[By Wayne J. Firebaugh Jr; CPA, CFP®, CMP™]

SPONSOR: http://www.CertifiedMedicalPlanner.org

wayne-firebaughNamed after Monte Carlo, Monaco, which is famous for its games of chance, MCS is a software technique that randomly changes a variable over numerous iterations in order to simulate an outcome and develop a probability forecast of successfully achieving an outcome.

Endowment Fund Perspective

In private portfolio and fund endowment management, MCS is used to demonstrate the probability of “success” as defined by achieving the endowment’s asset growth and payout goals. In other words, MCS can provide the endowment manager with a comfort level that a given payout policy and asset allocation success will not deplete the real value of the endowment.

Divorce from Judgment

The problem with many quantitative software and other tools is the divorce of judgment from their use. Although useful, both mean variance optimization MVO and MCS have limitations that make it so they should not supplant the physician investor or endowment manager’s experience. MVO generates an efficient frontier by relying upon several inputs: expected return, expected volatility, and correlation coefficients. These variables are commonly input using historical measures as proxies for estimated future performance. This poses a variety of problems.

Problems with MCS 

First, the MVO will generally assume that returns are normally distributed and that this distribution is stationary. As such, asset classes with high historical returns are assumed to have high future returns.

Second, an MVO optimizer is not generally time sensitive. In other words, the optimizer may ignore current environmental conditions that would cause a secular shift in a given asset class returns.

Finally, an MVO optimizer may be subject to selection bias for certain asset classes. For example, private equity firms that fail will no longer report results and will be eliminated from the index used to provide the optimizer’s historical data [1].

Example:

As an example, David Loeper, CEO of Wealthcare Capital Management, made the following observation regarding optimization:

Take a small cap “bet” for our theoretical [endowment] with an S&P 500 investment policy. It is hard to imagine that someone in 1979, looking at a 9% small cap stock return premium and corresponding 14% higher standard deviation for the last twenty years, would forecast the relationship over the next twenty years to shift to small caps under-performing large caps by nearly 2% and their standard deviation being less than 2% higher than the 20-year standard deviation of large caps in 1979 [2].

Table: Compares the returns, standard deviations for large and small cap stocks for the 20-year periods ended in 1979 and 1999.  Twenty Year Risk & Return Small Cap vs. Large Cap (Ibbotson Data).

1979 1999
Risk Return Correlation Risk Return Correlation
Small Cap Stocks 30.8% 17.4% 78.0% 18.1% 16.9% 59.0%
Large Cap Stocks 16.5% 8.1% 13.1% 18.6%

Reproduced from “Asset Allocation Math, Methods and Mistakes.” Wealthcare Capital Management White Paper, David B. Loeper, CIMA, CIMC (June 2, 2001).

More Problems with MCS

David Nawrocki identified a number of problems with typical MCS as being that most optimizers assume “normal distributions and correlation coefficients of zero, neither of which are typical in the world of financial markets.”

Dr. Nawrocki subsequently describes a number of other issues with MCS including nonstationary distributions and nonlinear correlations.

Finally, Dr. Nawrocki quotes Harold Evensky who eloquently notes that “[t]he problem is the confusion of risk with uncertainty.

Risk assumes knowledge of the distribution of future outcomes (i.e., the input to the Monte Carlo simulation).

Uncertainty or ambiguity describes a world (our world) in which the shape and location of the distribution is open to question.

Contrary to academic orthodoxy, the distribution of U.S. stock market returns is far from “normal” [3]. Other critics have noted that many MCS simulators do not run enough iterations to provide a meaningful probability analysis.

Assessment

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Some of these criticisms have been addressed by using MCS simulators with more robust correlation assumptions and with a greater number of iterative trials. In addition, some simulators now combine MVO and MCS to determine probabilities along the efficient frontier.

Conclusion

Your thoughts and comments on this ME-P are appreciated. Feel free to review our top-left column, and top-right sidebar materials, links, URLs and related websites, too. Then, subscribe to the ME-P. It is fast, free and secure.

Link: http://feeds.feedburner.com/HealthcareFinancialsthePostForcxos

Speaker: If you need a moderator or speaker for an upcoming event, Dr. David E. Marcinko; MBA – Publisher-in-Chief of the Medical Executive-Post – is available for seminar or speaking engagements. Contact: MarcinkoAdvisors@msn.com

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References:

1. Clark, S.E. and Yates, T.T., Jr. “How Efficient is your Frontier?” Commonfund Institute White Paper (November 2003).

2. Loeper, D.B., CIMA, CIMC. “Asset Allocation Math, Methods, and Mistakes.” Wealthcare Capital Management White Paper (June 2001).

3. Nawrocki, D., Ph.D. “The Problems with Monte Carlo Simulation.” FPA Journal (November 2001).

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What Physician Investors STILL NEED TO KNOW about Monte Carlo Simulation in 2022

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Probability Forecasting and Investing

By Dr. David Edward Marcinko MBA CMP™

[Editor-in-Chief] www.CertifiedMedicalPlanner.org

dr-david-marcinko1Recently, I had a physician-client ask me about Monte Carlo simulation. You know the routine: what it is and how it works, etc.

From Monaco

Named after Monte Carlo, Monaco, which is famous for its games of chance, MCS is a technique that randomly changes a variable over numerous iterations in order to simulate an outcome and develop a probability forecast of successfully achieving an outcome.

In endowment management, MCS is used to demonstrate the probability of “success” as defined by achieving the endowment’s asset growth and payout goals.  In other words, MCS can provide the endowment manager with a comfort level that a given payout policy and asset allocation success will not deplete the real value of the endowment.

Quantitative Tools Problematic

The problem with many quantitative tools is the divorce of judgment from their use. Although useful, MCS has limitations that should not supplant the endowment manager’s, FA or physician-investor’s, experience.

MCS generates an efficient frontier by relying upon several inputs: expected return, expected volatility, and correlation coefficients. These variables are commonly input using historical measures as proxies for estimated future performance. This poses a variety of problems.

  • First, the MCS will generally assume that returns are normally distributed and that this distribution is stationary.  As such, asset classes with high historical returns are assumed to have high future returns.
  • Second, MCS is not generally time sensitive. In other words, the MCS optimizer may ignore current environmental conditions that would cause a secular shift in a given asset class returns.
  • Third, MCS may use a mean variance optimizer [MVO] that may be subject to selection bias for certain asset classes. For example, private equity firms that fail will no longer report results and will be eliminated from the index used to provide the optimizer’s historical data.

Healthcare Investment Risks

A Tabular Data Example

This table compares the returns, standard deviations for large and small cap stocks for the 20-year periods ended in 1979 and 2010.

Twenty Year Risk & Return Small Cap vs. Large Cap (Ibbotson Data)

[IA Micro-Cap Value 14.66 17.44 24.69 0.44]

1979

2010

Risk

Return

Correlation

Risk

Return

Correlation

Small   Cap Stocks 30.8% 17.4% 78.0% 18.1% 26.85% 59.0%
Large   Cap Stocks 16.5% 8.1% 13.1% 15.06%

[Reproduced from “Asset Allocation Math, Methods and Mistakes.” Wealthcare Capital Management White Paper, David B. Loeper, CIMA, CIMC (June 2, 2001)]

The Problems

Professor David Nawrocki identified a number of problems with typical MCS in that their mean variance optimizers assume “normal distributions and correlation coefficients of zero, neither of which are typical in the world of financial markets.”

Dr. Nawrocki subsequently described a number of other issues with MCS including nonstationary distributions and nonlinear correlations.

Finally, Dr. Nawrocki quoted financial advisor, Harold Evensky MS CFP™ who eloquently notes that “[t]he problem is the confusion of risk with uncertainty.” Risk assumes knowledge of the distribution of future outcomes (i.e., the input to the Monte Carlo simulation). Uncertainty or ambiguity describes a world (our world) in which the shape and location of the distribution is open to question.

Assessment

Contrary to academic orthodoxy, the distribution of U.S. stock market returns is “far from normal.”[1] Other critics have noted that many MCS simulators do not run enough iterations to provide a meaningful probability analysis.

Conclusion

Your thoughts and comments on this ME-P are appreciated. Feel free to review our top-left column, and top-right sidebar materials, links, URLs and related websites, too. Then, subscribe to the ME-P. It is fast, free and secure.

Speaker: If you need a moderator or speaker for an upcoming event, Dr. David E. Marcinko; MBA – Publisher-in-Chief of the Medical Executive-Post – is available for seminar or speaking engagements. Contact: MarcinkoAdvisors@msn.com

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[1]   Nawrocki, D., Ph.D. “The Problems with Monte Carlo Simulation.” FPA Journal (November 2001).

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The Private Placement (Regulation D) Securities Exemption

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What it is – How it works?

dem-2

By Dr. David Edward Marcinko MBA

http://www.CertifiedMedicalPlanner.org

Since the Securities Act of 1933 requires disclosure of all public offerings (other than the exemptions just described), it should make sense that any securities offering not offered to the public would also be exempt. The Act provides a registration exemption for private placements, know as Regulation D.

Since one of the stated purposes of the Act of 1933 is to prevent fraud on the sale of new public issues, an issue which has only a limited possibility of injuring the public may be granted an exemption from registration. The SEC just doesn’t have the time to look at everything so they exempt offerings which do not constitute a “public offering”. Strict adherence to the provisions of the law, however, is expected and is scrutinized by the SEC. This exemption provision of the Act of ’33 lies within Regulation D.

Regulation D describes the type and number of investors who may purchase the issue, the dollar limitations on the issue, the manner of sale, and the limited disclosure requirements. Bear in mind at all times that from the issuer’s viewpoint, the principal justification for doing a private, rather than public offering, is to save time and money, not to evade the law.

NOTE: Remember, it is just as illegal to use fraud to sell a Regulation D issue as it is in a public issue. However, if done correctly, a Regulation D can save time and money, and six separate rules (501-506).

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The Rules

Rule 501: Accredited investors are defined as: corporations and partnerships with net worth of $5,000,000 not formed for the purpose of making the investment; corporate or partnership “insiders”; individuals and medical professionals with a net worth (individual or joint) in excess of $1,000,000; individuals with income in excess of $200,000 (or joint income of $300,000) in each of the last two years, with a reasonable expectation of having income in excess of $200,000 (joint income of $300,000) in the year of purchase; and any entity 100% owned by accredited investors. 

Rule 502: The violations of aggregation and integration are defined:

Aggregation: Sales of securities in violation of the dollar limitations imposed under Rules 504 and 505 (506 has no dollar limitations).

Integration: Sales of securities to a large number of non-accredited investors, in violation of the “purchaser limitations” set forth in Rules 505 and 506 (504 has no “purchaser limitations”). 

Rule 503: Sets forth notification requirements. An issuer will be considered in violation of Regulation D, and therefore subject to Federal penalties, if a Form D is not filed within 15 days after the Regulation D offering commences. 

Rule 504: Enables a non-reporting company to raise up to $1,000,000 in a 12-month period without undergoing the time land expense of an SEC registration. Any number of accredited and non-accredited investors may purchase a 504 issue. 

Rule 505: Enables corporations to raise up to $5,000,000 in a 12-month period without a registration. The “purchaser limitation” rule does apply here. It states that the number of non-accredited investors cannot exceed 35. Obviously, we would have few problems if only medical investors in private placements were accredited investors, but that is not always the case. Since we are limited to a maximum of 35 non-accredited investors, how we count the purchasers becomes an important consideration. The SEC states that if a husband and wife each purchase securities in a private placement for their own accounts, they count as one non- accredited investor, not two. It would also be true that if these securities were purchased in UGMA accounts for their dependent children, we would still be counting only one non- accredited investor. In the case of a partnership, it depends upon the purpose of the partnership. If the partnership was formed solely to make this investment, then each of the partners counts as an individual accredited or non-accredited investor based upon their own personal status, but if the partnership served some other purpose, such as a law firm, then it would only count as one purchaser.

Rule 506: Differs from 505 in two significant ways. The dollar limit is waived and the issuer must take steps to assure itself that, if sales are to be made to non-accredited investors, those investors meet tests of investment “sophistication”.

Generally speaking, this means that either the individual non-accredited investor has investment savvy and experience with this kind of offering, or he is represented by someone who has the requisite sophistication. This representative, normally a financial professional, such as an investment advisor, accountant, or attorney, is referred to in the securities business as a Purchaser Representative.

Regulation D further states that no public advertising or solicitation of any kind is permitted. A tombstone ad may be used to advertise the completion of a private placement, not to announce the availability of the issue. As a practical matter, however, whether required by the SEC or not, a Private Offering Memorandum for a limited partnership, for example, is normally prepared and furnished so that all investors receive disclosure upon which to base an investment judgment.

If any of the provisions of the Securities Act of 1933 are violated by an issuer, underwriter, or investor, this is known as “statutory underwriting” of underwriting securities in violation of statute. One who violates the ’33 Act is known as a statutory underwriter. One all too common example of this occurs when a purchaser of a Regulation D offering offers his unregistered securities for re-sale in violation of SEC Rule 144, an explanation of which is given below.

In simple English, SEC Rule 144 was created so that certain re-sales of already-existing securities could be made without having to file a complete registration statement with the SEC. The time and money involved in having to file such a registration is usually so prohibitive as to make it uneconomical for the individual seller. What kinds of re-sales are covered by Rule 144 and are important to the medical investor? Let’s first define a few terms. 

Restricted Securities: Are unregistered Securities purchased by an investor in a private placement. It is also called Letter Securities or Legend Securities referring to the fact that purchasers must sign an “Investment Letter” attesting to their understanding of the restrictions upon re-sale and to the “Legend” placed upon the certificates indicating restriction upon resale. 

Control Person: A corporate director, officer, greater than 10% voting Stockholder, or the spouse of any of the preceding, are loosely referred to as Insiders or Affiliates due to their unique status within the issuer. 

Control Stock: Stock held by a control person. What makes it control stock is who owns it, not so much how they acquired it. 

Non-Affiliate: An investor who is not a control person and has no other affiliation with the issuer other than as an owner of securities.

Rule 144 says that restricted securities cannot be offered for re-sale by any owner without first filing a registration statement with the SEC:

  1. unless the securities have been held in a fully paid-for status for at least two years;
  2. unless a notice of Sale is filed with the SEC at the time of sale and demonstrating compliance with Rule 144
  3. unless small certain quantity apply: 

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fsu_campus_1

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Assessment

  • Rule 500 – Use of Regulation D
  • Rule 501 – Definitions and terms used in Regulation D
  • Rule 502 – General conditions to be met
  • Rule 503 – Filing of notice of sales
  • Rule 504 – Exemption for offerings not exceeding $5,000,000
  • Rule 505 – No longer availible effective May 22, 2017
  • Rule 506 – Exemption for unlimited offering
  • Rule 507 – Disqualifying provision relating to exemptions 504, 505 and 506
  • Rule 508– Insignificant deviations from a term, condition or requirement of Regulation D

Conclusion

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Speaker: If you need a moderator or speaker for an upcoming event, Dr. David E. Marcinko; MBA – Publisher-in-Chief of the Medical Executive-Post – is available for seminar or speaking engagements. Contact: MarcinkoAdvisors@msn.com

OUR OTHER PRINT BOOKS AND RELATED INFORMATION SOURCES:

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INVESTING RISKS DOCTORS SHOULD KNOW: Types & Definitions

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Financial Investing risk is any of various types of risk associated with financing, including financial transactions that include company loans in risk of default. Often it is understood to include only downside risk, meaning the potential for financial loss and uncertainty about its extent.

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BY DR. DAVID E. MARCINKO MBA CMP®

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SPONSOR: http://www.CertifiedMedicalPlanner.org

Understanding Financial Risk

Although broad investing risks can be quickly summarized as “the failure to achieve spending and inflation-adjusted growth goals,” individual assets may face any number of other subsidiary risks:

  • Call risk – The risk, faced by a holder of a callable bond that a bond issuer will take advantage of the callable bond feature and redeem the issue prior to maturity. This means the bondholder will receive payment on the value of the bond and, in most cases, will be reinvesting in a less favorable environment (one with a lower interest rate)
  • Capital risk – The risk an investor faces that he or she may lose all or part of the principal amount invested.
  • Commodity risk – The threat that a change in the price of a production input will adversely impact a producer who uses that input.
  • Company risk – The risk that certain factors affecting a specific company may cause its stock to change in price in a different way from stocks as a whole.
  • Concentration risk – Probability of loss arising from heavily lopsided exposure to a particular group of counterparties
  • Counterparty risk – The risk that the other party to an agreement will default.
  • Credit risk – The risk of loss of principal or loss of a financial reward stemming from a borrower’s failure to repay a loan or otherwise meet a contractual obligation.
  • Currency risk – A form of risk that arises from the change in price of one currency against another.
  • Deflation risk – A general decline in prices, often caused by a reduction in the supply of money or credit.
  • Economic risk – the likelihood that an investment will be affected by macroeconomic conditions such as government regulation, exchange rates, or political stability.
  • Hedging risk – Making an investment to reduce the risk of adverse price movements in an asset.
  • Inflation risk – The uncertainty over the future real value (after inflation) of your investment.
  • Interest rate risk – Risk to the earnings or market value of a portfolio due to uncertain future interest rates.
  • Legal risk – risk from uncertainty due to legal actions or uncertainty in the applicability or interpretation of contracts, laws or regulations.
  • Liquidity risk – The risks stemming from the lack of marketability of an investment that cannot be bought or sold quickly enough to prevent or minimize a loss.

CITE: https://www.r2library.com/Resource/Title/0826102549

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Risk Management, Liability Insurance, and Asset Protection Strategies for Doctors and Advisors: Best Practices from Leading Consultants and Certified Medical Planners™

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Medical FINANCIAL PLANNING “Holistic” STRATEGIES

BY AND FOR PHYSICIANS AND THEIR ADVISORS

INVITE DR. MARCINKO: https://medicalexecutivepost.com/dr-david-marcinkos-

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UPDATE: Stock Market and the Economy

By Staff Reporters

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The stock market was very sharply mixed yesterday, and the NASDAQ Composite took the brunt of the damage. Even as the Dow Jones Industrial Average was up triple digits, the NASDAQ fell almost 2% as of 1:45 p.m. ET; and finishing down 210.08 points or (‎-1.33%).

Physicians and other investors looking at the biggest stocks in the NASDAQ would have to go through three dozen stocks on the list before finding a single one that rose more than 1%. Many of the top tech giants were down 1% to 5% or more on the day. Yet there were some winning NASDAQ stocks, and a few in particular might seem surprising to those used to seeing more popular names among top performers.

Bond yields gained thanks to bullish attitudes around economic growth.

Economy: The Great Resignation rolls on as a record 4.5 million Americans quit their jobs in November. That’s equivalent to 3% of the workforce.

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Personal Financial Planning for Physicians and Medical Colleagues

ME Inc = Going it Alone but with a Team

BY DR. DAVID EDWARD MARCINKO MBA CMP®

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SPONSOR: http://www.CertifiedMedicalPlanner.org

The physician, nurse, or other medical professional should easily recognize that there are a vast array of opportunities, obstacles, and pitfalls when it comes to managing one’s finances.  Still, with some modicum of effort, the basic aspects of insurance, investments, taxes, accounting, portfolio management, retirement and estate planning, debt reduction, asset protection and practice management can be largely self-taught. Yet, it is realized that nuances and subtleties can make a well-intentioned financial plan fall short.  The devil truly is in the details.  Moreover, none of these areas can be addressed in isolation. It is common for a solution in one area to cause a new set of problems in another. 

Accordingly, most health care practitioners would be well served to hire [independent, hourly compensated and prn] financial help. Unlike some medical problems, financial issues may not cause any “pain” or other obvious symptoms.  Medical professionals tend to have far more complex financial situations than most lay people. Despite the complexities of the new world of health reform, far too many either do nothing; or give up all control totally, to an external advisor. This either/or mistake can be costly in many ways, and should be avoided. 

In reality, and at various time in their careers, the medical professional needs a team comprised of at least a financial analyst, lawyer, management consultant, risk manager [actuary, mathematician or insurance counselor] and accountant. At various points in time, each member of the team, or significant others, will properly assume a role of more or less importance, but the doctor must usually remain the “quarterback” or leader; in the absence of a truly informed other, or Certified Medical Planner™.

This is necessary because only the doctor has the personal self-mandate with skin in the game, to take a big picture view.  And, rightly or wrongly, investments dominate the information available regarding personal finance and the attention of most physicians.  One is much more likely to need or want to discuss the financial markets with their financial advisor than private letter rulings by the IRS, or with their estate planning attorney or tax accountant. While hiring for expertise is a good idea, there is sinister way advisors goad doctors into using all their retail services; all of the time. That artifice is – the value of time. 

True integrated physician focused and financial planning is at its core a service business, not a product or sales endeavor. And, increasingly money is more likely to be at the top of the list for providers as the healthcare environment is contracting.

So, eschewing the quarterback model of advice, and choosing to self-educate thru this book and elsewhere, may be one of the best efforts a smart physician can make.

ASSESSMENT: Your thoughts are appreciated.

Comprehensive Financial Planning Strategies for Doctors and Advisors: Best Practices from Leading Consultants and Certified Medical Planners™

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INVESTMENT PORTFOLIO: More on Year End Mutual Fund “Window Dressing”

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By Steve Selengut

December values may not be what they seem

NOTE: Mr. Selengut is a private investor and a contributing editor to LIFE&Health Advisor. He is the author of the book ‘The Brainwashing of the American Investor: The book that Wall Street does not want you to read.

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As [physician] investors, and we all are investors these days, it is important that we understand the idiosyncrasies of year-end Stock Market activity. On Wall Street, investing can be a minefield for those who don’t appreciate the non-economic, non-business-model, factors contributing to the market value numbers in fourth quarter brokerage account summaries.

CITE: https://www.r2library.com/Resource/Title/0826102549

Year end market values may not be what they seem ….

“Portfolio Window Dressing” (PWD) produces security pricing that is more a function of next year’s institutional marketing programs than a reflection of the economic forces that we would like to think are their primary determining factors. Not even close…

Toward the end of every calendar quarter, we hear the financial media report that “institutional PWD activities” are in full swing. But that is as deep as the stories ever go. What are they talking about, and just what does it mean to you as an investor?

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Stock Portfolio 'Window-Dressing' At Work As Investment Managers Sell  Unattractive Losers And Buy Trendy Winners

READ MORE: https://www.lifehealth.com/year-end-portfolio-window-dressing/

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Doctors Living With Higher Stock Market Volatility

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Change is afoot in the market, the rally of which lulled many into complacency

DG

By David Gratke

DOW DJI 34,899.34 at close
-905.04 (‎-2.53%)

Volatility, on vacation for most of the past few years, is back this fall for physician investors and us all. It hit a new 52-week high in mid-October, double the level of August. That means change is afoot in the market, whose rally lulled many into complacency. So. this is a good time to see where your portfolio stands in risk terms.

The last time volatility really spiked, as measured by the Standard & Poor’s 500 volatility index, or VIX, was the fall of 2011 when the market last corrected by 20%. Then, the VIX level was twice as high as now. Volatility is market price fluctuation, and it signals greater risk.

Financial Risk

financial risk

The root cause of higher volatility is that the world’s major central banks, including our Federal Reserve, have flooded markets with liquidity – printing money, if you will. In other words, in an effort to jump-start local economies, they have kept rates so low that stocks are artificially higher, and thus ripe for a price-churning correction. The insidious side-effect of this money printing has been to greatly reduce, if not extinguish, historical, and normal, market price fluctuations.

As David Kotok, chairman and chief investment officer of Cumberland Advisors, puts it: “An era is ending: for over half a decade, nearly worldwide, zero interest rates suppressed volatilities. That is over.” The initial indication of this, Kotok says, was when then Fed-Chairman Ben Bernanke indicated that his bond-buying stimulus program was coming to an end. Well, now it’s over and the market fears interest rates are on the way up.

Investor Sentiment

Transferrable  Emotions

Stock market volatility can be measured and is used to gauge investor thinking, or what we call investor sentiment.

The VIX gauges investor sentiment. When volatility is low, the implication is that investors are complacent. Said differently, they are not paying attention to the underlying risks in the marketplace. Also during times of low volatility, markets are often fully valued, or even overvalued due to investor contentment.

When the VIX is high, as it was during the 2008-09 financial crisis, investors exhibited great amounts of fear. They sell out of their investments, and markets are typically undervalued.

Volatility was low prior to 2008, hovering around its historical average of 20. The index then zoomed to 90 during the 2008-09 stock market slide. In recent months, however, most notably June and July, we witnessed a historic low in this index, hovering near 10. Sure enough, there were high levels of margin balances and bullish investor sentiments, along with above-average stock valuations, as seen by lofty price/earnings ratios.

Now, the VIX is slightly below average, at about 15.

Since August, volatility rose from its sleepy historic mid-summer lows for many reasons: Middle East tensions, the Ebola outbreak, low gross domestic product growth, central bank stimulus slowing down, corporate stock buybacks, high P/E ratios, just to highlight a few.

Stock_Market

A New Normal?

Assuming this higher volatility is the new normal, what can you do about it? One alternative is to do nothing and ride this out. Another is to trade options, betting on which way the market will cut. But this is very risky and best done by professionals. Kotok says a volatility surge is a good time to examine your portfolio’s risk profile: His firm’s largest positions are in defensive stocks, like utilities and telecoms – ones that don’t tend to rocket around when the market gyrates.

During a recent volatility boost to the current level, in 2013, a Wall Street Journal story offered some market pros’ tips. Examples: putting money in a balanced fund, where stocks and bonds are in roughly equal proportion. Another warned that whenever stock holdings were over 70% of a portfolio, or under 30%, you are most vulnerable.

Regardless, Kotok cautions that “more and exciting volatilities lie ahead.”

Follow AdviceIQ on Twitter at @adviceiq.

About the Author

David Gratke is chief executive officer of Gratke Wealth LLC in Beaverton, Ore.

Conclusion

Your thoughts and comments on this ME-P are appreciated. Feel free to review our top-left column, and top-right sidebar materials, links, URLs and related websites, too. Then, subscribe to the ME-P. It is fast, free and secure.

Speaker: If you need a moderator or speaker for an upcoming event, Dr. David E. Marcinko; MBA – Publisher-in-Chief of the Medical Executive-Post – is available for seminar or speaking engagements. Contact: MarcinkoAdvisors@msn.com

OUR OTHER PRINT BOOKS AND RELATED INFORMATION SOURCES:

Financial Planning MDs 2015

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How to Buy Securities On Margin

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How It Works and What Physicians’ Must Watch Out For

 Dr. David Edward Marcinko MBA CMP

“Buying on margin” is borrowing money from your stock-broker to buy a stock and using your investment as collateral. Physician-investors generally use margin to increase their purchasing power so that they can own more stock without fully paying for it. But, margin exposes all investors to the potential for higher losses.

https://www.amazon.com/Dictionary-Health-Economics-Finance-Marcinko/dp/0826102549/ref=sr_1_6?ie=UTF8&s=books&qid=1254413315&sr=1-6

This ME-P discusses the basics of buying on margin, some of the pitfalls inherent in margin buying, whether this financial tool is for you and how you can best use it.

How Does Margin Work?

Let’s say you buy a stock for $50 and the price of the stock rises to $75. If you bought the stock in a cash account and paid for it in full, you’ll earn a 50 percent return on your investment. But, if you bought the stock on margin – paying $25 in cash and borrowing $25 from your broker – you’ll earn a 100 percent return on the money you invested. Of course, you’ll still owe your brokerage $25 plus interest.

The downside to using margin is that if the stock price decreases, substantial losses can mount quickly. For example, let’s say the stock you bought for $50 falls to $25. If you fully paid for the stock, you’ll lose 50% of your money. But if you bought on margin, you’ll lose 100%, and you still must come up with the interest you owe on the loan.

Caution: In volatile markets, investors who put up an initial margin payment for a stock may, from time to time, be required to provide additional cash if the price of the stock falls. Investors have been shocked to learn that a broker has the right to sell the securities that were bought on margin – without any notification, and at a potentially substantial loss to the investor.

Caution: If your broker sells your stock after the price has plummeted, then you’ve lost out on the chance to recoup your losses if the market bounces back.

The Risks

Margin accounts can be very risky and they are not for everyone. Before opening a margin account, be aware that:

  • You can lose more money than you have invested;
  • You may have to deposit additional cash or securities in your account on short notice to cover market losses;
  • You may be forced to sell some or all of your securities when falling stock prices reduce the value of your securities; and
  • Your brokerage firm may sell some or all of your securities without consulting you to pay off the loan it made to you.

You can protect yourself by knowing how a margin account works and what happens if the price of the stock purchased on margin declines.

Tip: Your broker charges you interest for borrowing money; take into account how that will affect the total return on your investments.

Tip: Ask your broker whether it makes sense for you to trade on margin in light of your financial resources, investment objectives, and tolerance for risk.

Read Your Margin Agreement

To open a margin account, you must sign a margin agreement. The agreement may either be part of your account agreement or separate. The margin agreement states that you must abide by the rules of the Federal Reserve Board, the New York Stock Exchange, the National Association of Securities Dealers, Inc., and the firm where you have set up your margin account.

Caution: Carefully review the agreement before signing.

As with most loans, the margin agreement explains the terms and conditions of the margin account. The agreement describes how the interest on the loan is calculated, how you are responsible for repaying the loan, and how the securities you purchase serve as collateral for the loan. Carefully review the agreement to determine what notice, if any, your firm must give you before selling your securities to collect the money you have borrowed.

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margin risk

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Know the Margin Rules

The Federal Reserve Board and many self-regulatory organizations (SROs), such as the NYSE and NASD, have rules that govern margin trading. Brokerage firms can establish their own requirements as long as they are at least as restrictive as the Federal Reserve Board and SRO rules.

Here are some of the key rules you should know:

Before You Trade – Minimum Margin. Before trading on margin, the NYSE and NASD, for example, require you to deposit with your brokerage firm a minimum of $2,000 or 100 percent of the purchase price, whichever is less. This is known as the “minimum margin.” Some firms may require you to deposit more than $2,000.

Amount You Can Borrow – Initial Margin. According to Regulation T of the Federal Reserve Board, you may borrow up to 50 percent of the purchase price of securities that can be purchased on margin. This is known as the “initial margin.” Some firms require you to deposit more than 50 percent of the purchase price.

Tip: Not all securities can be purchased on margin.

Amount You Need After You Trade – Maintenance Margin. After you buy stock on margin, the NYSE and NASD require you to keep a minimum amount of equity in your margin account. The equity in your account is the value of your securities less how much you owe to your brokerage firm. The rules require you to have at least 25 percent of the total market value of the securities in your margin account at all times. The 25 percent is called the “maintenance requirement.” In fact, many brokerage firms have higher maintenance requirements, typically between 30 to 40 percent and sometimes higher, depending on the type of stock purchased.

Example: You purchase $16,000 worth of securities by borrowing $8,000 from your firm and paying $8,000 in cash or securities. If the market value of the securities drops to $12,000, the equity in your account will fall to $4,000 ($12,000 – $8,000 = $4,000). If your firm has a 25 percent maintenance requirement, you must have $3,000 in equity in your account (25 percent of $12,000 = $3,000). In this case, you do have enough equity because the $4,000 in equity in your account is greater than the $3,000 maintenance requirement.

But, if your firm has a maintenance requirement of 40%, you would not have enough equity. The firm would require you to have $4,800 in equity (40% of $12,000 = $4,800). Your $4,000 in equity is less than the firm’s $4,800 maintenance requirement. As a result, the firm may issue you a “margin call,” since the equity in your account has fallen $800 below the firm’s maintenance requirement.

Margin Calls

If your account falls below the firm’s maintenance requirement, your broker generally will make a margin call to ask you to deposit more cash or securities into your account. If you are unable to meet the margin call, your firm will sell your securities to increase the equity in your account up to or above the firm’s maintenance requirement.

Tip: Your broker may not be required to make a margin call or otherwise tell you that your account has fallen below the firm’s maintenance requirement. Your broker may be able to sell your securities at any time without consulting you first. Under most margin agreements, even if your firm offers to give you time to increase the equity in your account, it can sell your securities without waiting for you to meet the margin call.

  • Margin accounts involve a great deal more risk than cash accounts, where you fully pay for the securities you purchase. You may lose more than your initial investment when buying on margin. If you cannot afford to do so, then margin buying is not for you.
  • Read the margin agreement, and ask your broker questions about how a margin account works and whether it’s appropriate for you to trade on margin. Your broker should explain the terms and conditions of the margin agreement.
  • Know how much you will be charged on money you borrow from your broker, and know how these costs affect your overall return.
  • Remember that your brokerage firm can sell your securities without notice to you when you don’t have sufficient equity in your margin account.

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Conclusion

Your thoughts and comments on this ME-P are appreciated. Feel free to review our top-left column, and top-right sidebar materials, links, URLs and related websites, too. Then, subscribe to the ME-P. It is fast, free and secure.

Speaker: If you need a moderator or speaker for an upcoming event, Dr. David E. Marcinko; MBA – Publisher-in-Chief of the Medical Executive-Post – is available for seminar or speaking engagements. Contact: MarcinkoAdvisors@msn.com

OUR OTHER PRINT BOOKS AND RELATED INFORMATION SOURCES:

Comprehensive Financial Planning Strategies for Doctors and Advisors: Best Practices from Leading Consultants and Certified Medical Planners(TM)

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COMPREHENSIVE FINANCIAL PLANNING STRATEGIES

For Doctors and Advisors

BOOK REVIEWS WITH FOREWORD

Reviews

Written by doctors and healthcare professionals, this textbook should be mandatory reading for all medical school students―highly recommended for both young and veteran physicians―and an eliminating factor for any financial advisor who has not read it. The book uses jargon like ‘innovative,’ ‘transformational,’ and ‘disruptive’―all rightly so! It is the type of definitive financial lifestyle planning book we often seek, but seldom find.
LeRoy Howard MA CMPTM,Candidate and Financial Advisor, Fayetteville, North Carolina

I taught diagnostic radiology for over a decade. The physician-focused niche information, balanced perspectives, and insider industry transparency in this book may help save your financial life.
Dr. William P. Scherer MS, Barry University, Ft. Lauderdale, Florida

This book was crafted in response to the frustration felt by doctors who dealt with top financial, brokerage, and accounting firms. These non-fiduciary behemoths often prescribed costly wholesale solutions that were applicable to all, but customized for few, despite ever-changing needs. It is a must-read to learn why brokerage sales pitches or Internet resources will never replace the knowledge and deep advice of a physician-focused financial advisor, medical consultant, or collegial Certified Medical Planner™ financial professional.
―Parin Khotari MBA,Whitman School of Management, Syracuse University, New York

In today’s healthcare environment, in order for providers to survive, they need to understand their current and future market trends, finances, operations, and impact of federal and state regulations. As a healthcare consulting professional for over 30 years supporting both the private and public sector, I recommend that providers understand and utilize the wealth of knowledge that is being conveyed in these chapters. Without this guidance providers will have a hard time navigating the supporting system which may impact their future revenue stream. I strongly endorse the contents of this book.

―Carol S. Miller BSN MBA PMP,President, Miller Consulting Group, ACT IAC Executive Committee Vice-Chair at-Large, HIMSS NCA Board Member

This is an excellent book on financial planning for physicians and health professionals. It is all inclusive yet very easy to read with much valuable information. And, I have been expanding my business knowledge with all of Dr. Marcinko’s prior books. I highly recommend this one, too. It is a fine educational tool for all doctors.

―Dr. David B. Lumsden MD MS MA,Orthopedic Surgeon, Baltimore, Maryland

There is no other comprehensive book like it to help doctors, nurses, and other medical providers accumulate and preserve the wealth that their years of education and hard work have earned them.
―Dr. Jason Dyken MD MBA,Dyken Wealth Strategies, Gulf Shores, Alabama

I plan to give a copy of this book written
by doctors and for doctors’ to all my prospects, physician, and nurse clients. It may be the definitive text on this important topic.
―Alexander Naruska CPA,Orlando, Florida

Health professionals are small business owners who need to apply their self-discipline tactics in establishing and operating successful practices. Talented trainees are leaving the medical profession because they fail to balance the cost of attendance against a realistic business and financial plan. Principles like budgeting, saving, and living below one’s means, in order to make future investments for future growth, asset protection, and retirement possible are often lacking. This textbook guides the medical professional in his/her financial planning life journey from start to finish. It ranks a place in all medical school libraries and on each of our bookshelves.
―Dr. Thomas M. DeLauro DPM,Professor and Chairman – Division of Medical Sciences, New York College of Podiatric Medicine

Physicians are notoriously excellent at diagnosing and treating medical conditions. However, they are also notoriously deficient in managing the business aspects of their medical practices. Most will earn $20-30 million in their medical lifetime, but few know how to create wealth for themselves and their families. This book will help fill the void in physicians’ financial education. I have two recommendations: 1) every physician, young and old, should read this book; and 2) read it a second time!
―Dr. Neil Baum MD,Clinical Associate Professor of Urology, Tulane Medical School, New Orleans, Louisiana

I worked with a Certified Medical Planner™ on several occasions in the past, and will do so again in the future. This book codified the vast body of knowledge that helped in all facets of my financial life and professional medical practice.
Dr. James E. Williams DABPS, Foot and Ankle Surgeon, Conyers, Georgia

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Comprehensive Financial Planning Strategies for Doctors and Advisors: Best Practices from Leading Consultants and Certified Medical Planners™

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YOUR THOUGHTS ARE APPRECIATED.

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PODCAST: What is SMART BETA?

REALLY SMART -OR- NOT REALLY

By Dr. David E. Marcinko MBA CMP®

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SPONSOR: http://www.CertifiedMedicalPlanner.org

Smart beta investment portfolios offer the benefits of passive strategies combined with some of the advantages of active ones, placing it at the intersection of efficient-market hypothesis and factor investing.

Offering a blend of active and passive styles of management, a smart beta portfolio is low cost due to the systematic nature of its core philosophy – achieving efficiency by way of tracking an underlying index (e.g., MSCI World Ex US). Combining with optimization techniques traditionally used by active managers, the strategy aims at risk/return potentials that are more attractive than a plain vanilla active or passive product.

An independent voice on smart beta

CITATION: https://www.r2library.com/Resource/Title/0826102549

Originally theorized by Harry Markowitz in his work on Modern Portfolio Theory (MPT), smart beta is a response to a question that forms the basis of MPT – how to best construct the optimally diversified portfolio. Smart beta answers this by allowing a portfolio to expand on the efficient frontier (post-cost) of active and passive. As a typical investor owns both the active and index fund, most would benefit from adding smart beta exposure to their portfolio in addition to their existing allocations.

Financial beta: https://medicalexecutivepost.com/2021/05/12/so-what-is-financial-beta-granularly/

Assessment: The smart beta approach is an arguably perfect intersection between traditional value investing and the efficient market hypothesis. But, is it worth the cost?

More: https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2018-06-08/smart-beta-performance-isn-t-worth-the-cost

ALPHA versus BETA Podcast: https://youtu.be/dP_23vKJ3HQ

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PODCAST: Why Bitcoin is a “Once-in-a-Species” Asset Class

In this episode, DWealthMuse host, Dara Albright, and guest Jeff Ross, CIO of Vailshire Capital Management, discuss why bitcoin may just be that once-in-a-species asset class that saves the planet from economic and, yes, even environmental ruin.

This episode is loaded with so many great insights including:

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  • Why Jeff believes bitcoin’s investment risk has evaporated;
  • How bitcoin fits into Warren Buffet’s investment thesis;
  • Two characteristics bitcoin skeptics share: a lack of understanding and deep ties to the traditional banking system;
  • Why bitcoin is a dishonest politician’s worst nightmare;
  • Why every modern retirement portfolio should have bitcoin exposure;
  • Why regulatory scrutiny may be turning away from bitcoin and heading straight towards ethereum and altcoins;
  • How bitcoin could solve the world’s energy problems;
  • Why we may be nearing the end of the Keynesian economic experiment;
  • How bitcoin forces an honest unit of accounting by governments;
  • Why fiat is destined to self-destruct while bitcoin is designed to appreciate in time;
  • Whether bitcoin can reach a new all-time high by Jeff’s August 29th birthday and cross 100,000 by Dara’s December 24th birthday?

PODCAST: https://dwealthmuse.podbean.com/e/episode25bitcoinbulls/

Your comments are appreciated.

THANK YOU

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FINANCIAL PLANNING: Strategies for Doctors and Advisors

SPONSOR: http://www.CertifiedMedicalPlanner.org

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RELATED TEXTS: https://medicalexecutivepost.com/2021/04/29/why-are-certified-medical-planner-textbooks-so-darn-popular/

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FINANCIAL PLANNING AND INVESTING FOR PHYSICIANS: Purchase Textbook Today & Relax Tomorrow

“MANIC MONDAY” 2021

INVITE DR. MARCINKO: https://medicalexecutivepost.com/dr-david-marcinkos-bookings/

YOUR THOUGHTS ARE APPRECIATED

SPONSOR: http://www.CertifiedMedicalPlanner.org

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FINANCIAL PLANNING: Strategies for Physicians and their Advisors

A Textbook Review

SECOND OPINIONS: https://medicalexecutivepost.com/schedule-a-consultation/

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SPONSOR: http://www.CertifiedMedicalPlanner.org

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JULY FOURTH WEEKEND READING LIST 2021

Happy Independence Weekend Greetings to our Readers and Subscribers for 2021

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Comprehensive Financial Planning Strategies for Doctors and Advisors: Best Practices from Leading Consultants and Certified Medical Planners™
Risk Management, Liability Insurance, and Asset Protection Strategies for Doctors and Advisors: Best Practices from Leading Consultants and Certified Medical Planners™

INVITE DR. MARCINKO: https://medicalexecutivepost.com/dr-david-marcinkos-

CONTACT: Ann Miller RN MH

[Executive Director]

MarcinkoAdvisors@msn.com

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ME-P Speaking Invitations

Dr. David E. Marcinko is at your Service

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Dr. David Edward Marcinko MBA CMP® enjoys personal coaching and public speaking and gives as many talks each year as possible, at a variety of medical society and financial services conferences around the country and world.

These have included lectures and visiting professorships at major academic centers, keynote lectures for hospitals, economic seminars and health systems, keynote lectures at city and statewide financial coalitions, and annual keynote lectures for a variety of internal yearly meetings.

His talks tend to be engaging, iconoclastic, and humorous. His most popular presentations include a diverse variety of topics and typically include those in all iMBA, Inc’s textbooks, handbooks, white-papers and most topics covered on this blog.

CONTACT: Ann Miller RN MHA

MarcinkoAdvisors@msn.com

Ph: 770-448-0769

Abbreviated Topic List: https://healthcarefinancials.files.wordpress.com/2009/02/imba-inc-firm-services.pdf

Second Opinions: https://medicalexecutivepost.com/schedule-a-consultation/

DIY Textbooks: https://medicalexecutivepost.com/2021/04/29/why-are-certified-medical-planner-textbooks-so-darn-popular/

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THE ANATOMIC BASIS OF HUMAN PHYSIOLOGY AND BEHAVIOR?

BRAIN ANATOMY

By Dr. David Edward Marcinko MBA CMP©

SPONSOR: http://www.CertifiedMedicalPlanner.org

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I am not a neurologist, psychologist, or psychiatrist. But, it is well known that emotional and behavioral change involves the human nervous system. And, there are two parts of the nervous system that are especially significant for holistic financial advisor; the first is the limbic system and the second is the autonomic nervous system. 

According to Dr. C. George Boerre of Shippensburg University of Pennsylvania, this is known as the emotional nervous system.

1. The Limbic System

The limbic system is a set of structures that lies on both sides of the thalamus, just under the cerebrum.  It includes the hypothalamus, the hippocampus, the amygdala, and nearby areas.  It is primarily responsible for emotions, memories and recollection. 

Hypothalamus

The small hypothalamus is located just below the thalamus on both sides of the third ventricle (areas within the cerebrum filled with cerebrospinal fluid that connect to spinal fluid). It sits inside both tracts of the optic nerve, and just above the pituitary gland.

The hypothalamus is mainly concerned with homeostasis or the process of returning to some “set point.”  It works like a thermostat:  When the room gets too cold, the thermostat conveys that information to the furnace and turns it on.  As the room warms up and the temperature rises, it sends turns off the furnace.  The hypothalamus is responsible for regulating hunger, thirst, response to pain, levels of pleasure, sexual satisfaction, anger and aggressive behavior, and more.  It also regulates the functioning of the autonomic nervous system, which means it regulates functions like pulse, blood pressure, breathing, and arousal in response to emotional circumstances. In a recent discovery, the protein leptin is released by fat cells with over-eating.  The hypothalamus senses leptin levels in the bloodstream and responds by decreasing appetite.  So, it seems that some people might have a gene mutation which produces leptin, and can’t tell the hypothalamus that it is satiated.   The hypothalamus sends instructions to the rest of the body in two ways.  The first is to the autonomic nervous system.  This allows the hypothalamus to have ultimate control of things like blood pressure, heart rate, breathing, digestion, sweating, and all the sympathetic and parasympathetic functions.

The second way the hypothalamus controls things is via the pituitary gland.  It is neurally and chemically connected to the pituitary, which in turn pumps hormones called releasing factors into the bloodstream.  The pituitary is the so-called “master gland” as these hormones are vitally important in regulating growth and metabolism.

Hippocampus

The hippocampus consists of two “horns” that curve back from the amygdala.  It is important in converting things “in your mind” at the moment (short-term memory) into things that are remembered for the long run (long-term memory).  If the hippocampus is damaged, a patient cannot build new memories and lives in a strange world where everything they experience just fades away; even while older memories from the time before the damage are untouched!  Most patients who suffer from this kind of brain damage are eventually institutionalized.

Amygdala

The amygdalas are two almond-shaped masses of neurons on either side of the thalamus at the lower end of the hippocampus.  When it is stimulated electrically, animals respond with aggression.  And, if the amygdala is removed, animals get very tame and no longer respond to anger that would have caused rage before.  The animals also become indifferent to stimuli that would have otherwise have caused fear and sexual responses.

Related Anatomic Areas

Besides the hypothalamus, hippocampus, and amygdala, there are other areas in the structures near to the limbic system that are intimately connected to it:

  • The cingulate gyrus is the part of the cerebrum that lies closest to the limbic system, just above the corpus collosum.  It provides a pathway from the thalamus to the hippocampus, is responsible for focusing attention on emotionally significant events, and for associating memories to smells and to pain.
  • The ventral tegmental area of the brain stem (just below the thalamus) consists of dopamine pathways responsible for pleasure.  People with damage here tend to have difficulty getting pleasure in life, and often turn to alcohol, drugs, sweets, and gambling.
  • The basal ganglia (including the caudate nucleus, the putamen, the globus pallidus, and the substantia nigra) lie over to the sides of the limbic system, and are connected with the cortex above them.  They are responsible for repetitive behaviors, reward experiences, and focusing attention. 
  • The prefrontal cortex, which is the part of the frontal lobe which lies in front of the motor area, is also closely linked to the limbic system.  Besides apparently being involved in thinking about the future, making plans, and taking action, it also appears to be involved in the same dopamine pathways as the ventral tegmental area, and plays a part in pleasure and addiction.

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2. The Autonomic Nervous System

The second part of the nervous system to have a particularly powerful part to play in our emotional life is the autonomic nervous system. 

The autonomic nervous system is composed of two parts, which function primarily in opposition to each other.  The first is the sympathetic nervous system, which starts in the spinal cord and travels to a variety of areas of the body.  Its function appears to be preparing the body for the kinds of vigorous activities associated with “fight or flight,” that is, with running from danger or with preparing for violence.  Activation of the sympathetic nervous system has the following effects:

  • dilates the pupils and opens the eyelids,
  • stimulates the sweat glands and dilates the blood vessels in large muscles,
  • constricts the blood vessels in the rest of the body,
  • increases the heart rate and opens up the bronchial tubes of the lungs, and
  • inhibits the secretions in the digestive system.

One of its most important effects is causing the adrenal glands (which sit on top of the kidneys) to release epinephrine (adrenalin) into the blood stream.  Epinephrine is a powerful hormone that causes various parts of the body to respond in much the same way as the sympathetic nervous system.  Being in the blood stream, it takes a bit longer to stop its effects, and may take some time to calm down again

The sympathetic nervous system also takes in information, mostly concerning pain from internal organs.  Because the nerves that carry information about organ pain often travel along the same paths that carry information about pain from more surface areas of the body, the information sometimes get confused.  This is called referred pain, and the best known example is the pain in the left shoulder and arm when having a heart attack.

The other part of the autonomic nervous system is called the parasympathetic nervoussystem.  It has its roots in the brainstem and in the spinal cord of the lower back.  Its function is to bring the body back from the emergency status that the sympathetic nervous system puts it into.

Some of the details of parasympathetic arousal include some of the following:.

  • pupil constriction and activation of the salivary glands,
  • stimulating the secretions of the stomach and activity of the intestines,
  • stimulating secretions in the lungs and constricting the bronchial tubes, and;
  • decreases heart rate.

The parasympathetic nervous system also has some sensory abilities:  It receives information about blood pressure, levels of carbon dioxide in the blood, etc.

There is actually another part of the autonomic nervous system that is not mentioned too often: the enteric nervous system.  It is a complex of nerves that regulate the activity of the stomach. 

For example, if you get sick to your stomach with a new financial advisory client – or feel nervous butterflies with your first patient encounter as a doctor- you can blame the enteric nervous system.

ASSESSMENT: Your thoughts are appreciated.

Comprehensive Financial Planning Strategies for Doctors and Advisors: Best Practices from Leading Consultants and Certified Medical Planners™

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PODCAST: Could Money be the Root of Optimal Patient Outcomes?

ETHICS AND THE HEALTH ECONOMICS OF THE DOCTOR-PATIENT RELATIONSHIP

QUERY: Is a financial relationship necessary to improve the doctor-patient relationship?

ANSWER: Dr. Tony Dale, a British-trained physician, emphatically says … YES.

Editor’s Note: Dr. Tony Dale, founder of Sedera Health, spoke at the 2020 FMMA Mini-Conference on Medical Entrepreneurship.

-Dr. David E. Marcinko MBA CMP®

[Editor-in-Chief]

Dr. Tony Dale - Entrepreneur and Founder of Sedera Health ...

PODCAST: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TER9xNUHAlE

ASSESSMENT: Your thoughts are appreciated.

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PODCAST: Stock Market Impact on Health Care

The Dramatic Rise in the Stock Market Over the Last 10 Years Has Caused Institutional Investors Like Pension Funds to Re-balance to Private Equity

EP269: COVID-19—Prepping for the Next Wave: What Payers ...

By Eric Bricker MD

A Typical Pension Fund Portfolio Will Be 51% Bonds, 28% Equities, 6% Real Estate, 5% Private Equity, 4% Other and 6% Cash. As a Result of Rebalancing Money Out of Skyrocketing Equities, Private Equity Funding Has Doubled to Over $1.2 Trillion in the Last 10 Years.

Specifically in Healthcare, Private Equity Investment in Providers (i.e. Physician Groups, Surgery Centers, Imaging Centers, etc.) Doubled to $30 Billion in Just ONE YEAR. The Private Equity Investment on the Payor Side of Healthcare PALES in Comparison at Only $1 Billion. The Majority of These Private Equity Investments Plan on Making Money By INCREASING Healthcare Costs in a Fee-for-Service Payment Environment.

Healthcare Costs Don’t Rise By Accident. They Rise Because Specific People Make Specific Plans to Increase Costs to Earn a Return on Their Investment.

Sources: https://www.ssga.com/investment-topic…​, https://www.barrons.com/articles/reba…​, https://www.privateequityinternationa…

Private equity sees a lot to like in healthcare

PODCAST LINK: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=X3hpyeQaKDk

ASSESSMENT: Your thoughts are appreciated.

Diversification: https://medicalexecutivepost.com/2014/11/12/the-negative-short-term-implications-of-diversification/

Hospital Endowment Fund: https://medicalexecutivepost.com/2015/01/08/on-hospital-endowment-fund-management/

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