DAILY UPDATE: Jack Dorsey, Deutsche Bank and the Markets

Posted on March 25, 2023 by Dr. Marcinko

By Staff Reporters

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Short seller Hindenburg Research has hit another billionaire’s fortune with a report. Jack Dorsey, the co-founder of payments company Block and Twitter, saw his net worth tumble by $526 million, or 11%, to $4.4 billion after the US-based research firm led by Nathan Anderson accused Block of misleading investors in a March 23 report, according to Bloomberg. Dorsey isn’t on the list of the world’s 500 richest persons on the Bloomberg Billionaires Index currently. He was previously featured at number 456 with a net worth of $5.41 billion on March 22nd, per Insider’s scan of the Index on Wednesday.

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Investors sparked a furious selloff in Deutsche Bank AG and thrust one of Europe’s most important lenders into the center of concerns about the health of the global financial system. Shares of Germany’s largest lender tumbled as much as 15%, their third consecutive day of losses, though they later regained some ground and were recently down 10%. The cost to insure against its default using credit-default swaps soared to their highest levels since 2020.

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Chairman Jerome Powell was ambiguous this week about future Federal Reserve moves, suggesting “some additional policy firming may be needed.”

Treasury yields dropped near seven-month lows, a seeming indication of escalating recession worries after the Fed raised its benchmark lending rate nine times to a range of 4.75% to 5% over the past year. The release next week of updated data on consumer confidence, inflation, and economic growth will likely be in focus.

Monetary Policy: https://medicalexecutivepost.com/2023/03/17/the-modern-us-monetary-system/

The swings in stock prices this week “were consistent with the unclear outlook for monetary policy, the banking system, and the broader economy,” says Kevin Gordon, senior investment strategist at Charles Schwab. “More time needs to pass before we know the true impact of the expected tightening in credit conditions.”

  • The S&P 500® Index was up 22.27 (0.6%) at 3970.99; the Dow Jones industrial average was up 132.28 (0.4%) at 32,237.53; the NASDAQ Composite was up 36.56 (0.3%) at 11,823.96.
  • The 10-year Treasury yield was little changed at about 3.374%.
  • CBOE’s Volatility Index was down 0.87 at 21.74.

The real estate sector led the gainers Friday, followed by consumer staples and health care. Financials and consumer discretionary stocks edged lower, and technology stocks were little changed, though the tech-focused NASDAQ Composite still notched its second straight weekly gain. Gold and crude oil futures both declined, while the U.S. dollar strengthened.

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DAILY UPDATE: Larry Summers Speaks About Domestic Economic Activity as the Markets Collapse

Posted on February 25, 2023 by Dr. Marcinko

By Staff Reporters

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According to Bloomberg, former Treasury Secretary Lawrence Summers said worrying signals of a potential sharp drop-off in activity combined with strength in other indicators point toward an uncertain economic outlook.

Here is Why:

Inventories “look to be building up relative to sales.”Companies are “reporting concerns about their order books.”The business sector appears to have a high payroll head-count relative to “the level of output they’re producing.”“Consumer savings are being depleted, with a low savings rate.” And, “there is stuff when you look down the road a bit that has to be substantially concerning about the Wile E. Coyote kind of moment,” reiterating his reference to the cartoon character that falls off a cliff. 

Federal Reserve policymakers will need to “stay nimble and flexible” given the uncertainty, Summers said. The central bank should “resist the pressure to be giving strong signals about what it’s going to do next.”

Finally, the former Treasury chief also reiterated the lack of past examples in which the US managed to avoid a recession when the unemployment rate dropped below 4% and inflation went above 4%. “That’s a powerful historical truth and I think it’s one that’s relevant to our current situation.”

The latest unemployment-rate reading was 3.4%, while the consumer price index climbed 6.4% in January on a year-on-year basis.

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Stocks Fell Following Hot Inflation Report and U.S. equities ended the day and week lower as the markets reacted to a Fed-favored gauge of inflation that came in hotter-than-expected. PCE and Core PCE Price Indexes rose more than anticipated, while personal income increased less than expected, and spending jumped. The moves came as equities have shown some volatility amid festering uncertainty regarding the ultimate economic impact of aggressive global central bank tightening as a result of persistent inflation. In other economic news, new home sales rose, and consumer sentiment was surprisingly revised the upside.

Treasury yields were higher, and the U.S. dollar gained ground, while crude oil prices increased, and gold traded to the downside. Q4 earnings season rounded a corner this week with some second-tier results hitting the tape, as Autodesk disappointed with its guidance and Intuit bested expectations, while Warner Bros. Discovery fell well short of forecasts.

In other equity news, shares of Boeing declined after the company paused delivery of its 787 Dreamliner planes. Asian stocks finished mixed, and markets in Europe fell, with economic data in the respective regions keeping the anxiety over future global monetary policy elevated.

CITE: https://www.r2library.com/Resource/Title/082610254

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DAILY UPDATE: Disney, MSFT and Lyft Down but US Markets Mixed

Posted on February 12, 2023 by Dr. Marcinko

By Staff Reporters

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Nelson Peltz, the activist investor and head of Trian Fund Management, called a cease-fire after a month long proxy fight with Disney. Peltz said he was happy with the restructuring plan CEO Bob Iger announced and will no longer try to grab a seat on the board of directors. Along with his restructuring plan, Disney said that Toy Story, Frozen, and Zootopia will all get more sequels in an effort to boost the company’s streaming numbers.

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Microsoft Corp., implementing the layoff of 10,000 workers announced cut jobs in units including Surface devices, HoloLens mixed reality hardware and Xbox, according to Bloomberg and people familiar with the matter.

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Shares of ride-hailing firm Lyft plunged following a downbeat profit forecast. In fact, Lyft had its worst day ever after it shared a dismal outlook during its earnings call this week. Wedbush analyst Dan Ives called it “a Top 3 worst call” out of the thousands he’s listened in 22 years. The company’s shares fell about 36% after forecasting it’ll make between $5 million and $15 million this quarter—rather than the $85 million that analysts expected. Meanwhile, Uber is coming off its “strongest quarter ever,” according to CEO Dara Khosrowshahi.

Yields on the benchmark 10-year Treasury note rose to their highest in more than a month following an auction on Thursday of 30-year bonds that saw weak demand. [US].

CITE: https://www.r2library.com/Resource/Title/0826102549

Finally the S&P 500 gained 8.99 points, or 0.22%, to end at 4,090.49 points, while the NASDAQ Composite lost 71.12 points, or 0.60%, to 11,718.46. The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 169.88 points, or 0.50%, to 33,869.76. The NASDAQ posted its first weekly fall this year, while the S&P 500 ended the week lower in a week dominated by hawkish commentary from U.S. Federal Reserve officials and earnings reports from more than half of the S&P 500 constituents.

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ENTER Guatam Adani – EXIT Adani?

Posted on February 5, 2023 by Dr. Marcinko

A Reprint by Staff Reporters

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In the week since the Indian mogul was targeted by a short seller, his businesses have lost a combined $108 billion in value and his own net worth has plummeted by $52 billion. Adani was once the second-richest person in the world. But, as Bloomberg notes, his downfall “defies just about every historical comparison.”

CITE: https://www.r2library.com/Resource/Title/082610254

Given Adani’s sprawling business empire and his cozy relationship with India’s leadership class, this crisis has echoed across both markets and politics. Here’s a rundown of what you need to know about the most important story in global business this week.

According to Morning Brew, Adani grew up middle-class, dropped out of college to trade diamonds and eventually formed his own business hawking other physical products. During the ’90s his ambitions expanded along with the Indian economy, and he now runs a conglomerate that encompasses energy, transportation infrastructure such as ports and airports, defense manufacturing, and media.

On January 24th, a US short seller named Hindenburg Research claimed Adani’s empire pulled “the largest con in corporate history,” accusing it of stock manipulation and accounting fraud in a 100-page report. Adani has denied the allegations, but his push-back hasn’t comforted spooked investors…especially after he scrapped a $2.5 billion share sale a few days ago. 

Adani responded that Hindenburg’s report wasn’t just an attack on him, it amounted to a “calculated attack on India…and the growth story and ambition of India.” Adani’s business ventures have aligned closely with the priorities of Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi, and Modi’s political opponents are seizing on the fiasco to highlight the relationship between India’s leader and Adani.

Adani emphasized that his company’s fundamentals remain “very strong” and its balance sheet “healthy.” Still, some experts say the accusations could leave a lasting reputational stain on India’s largest corporations and hamstring their ability to grow

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US Unemployment Benefits Fall

Posted on February 2, 2023 by Dr. Marcinko

INFLATION STILL LOOMING?

By Staff Reporters

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According to Bloomberg, applications for US unemployment benefits fell for the fourth time in five weeks, underscoring the broad resilience of the job market that threatens to keep inflation elevated. Initial unemployment claims ticked down by 3,000 to 183,000 in the week ended January 28th, the lowest since April, Labor Department data showed Thursday. The median forecast in a Bloomberg survey of economists called for 195,000 applications.

CITE: https://www.r2library.com/Resource/Title/0826102549

Continuing claims, which include people who have already received unemployment benefits for a week or more, fell to 1.66 million in the week ended January 21st. The labor market, while cooling at the margins, is still tight by many measures and remains one of the key hurdles in the Federal Reserve’s fight against inflation. Even though payrolls growth has slowed and companies in technology and banking have laid off staff in recent months, demand for workers still far exceeds supply, which could put upward pressure on wages and broader prices.

RELATED: https://medicalexecutivepost.com/2023/02/02/stock-market-trifecta-a-good-january-launch-for-2023/

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INTEL: Raises Alarm for the Computer Micro-Chip Industry

Posted on February 1, 2023 by Dr. Marcinko

BUT … NOT SAMSUNG

By Staff Reporters

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Due to a lack of demand for chips and a slowdown in its data processing center business, Intel just reported its worst financial results since the dot-com bubble popped at the turn of the century. Though the stock only ended up falling 6.4% by the time the market closed yesterday, Wall Street definitely took notice of the company’s troubles.

CITE: https://www.r2library.com/Resource/Title/0826102549

And so, twenty-one analysts slashed what they thought it was worth, and many did not hold back in describing the chip maker’s fall. “No words can portray or explain the historic collapse of Intel,” one said according to Bloomberg.

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Samsung Electronics Co., however, made a surprisingly aggressive decision to keep capital spending at the same level as last year, defying expectations it would go along with rivals in pulling back to alleviate pressure on an already-battered semiconductor industry. The result will be more pressure on chip pricing than if the Korean giant had pulled back spending on new machinery and factory capacity.

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MORGAN STANLEY: S&P 500 May Drop Another 22% in 2023?

Posted on January 15, 2023 by Dr. Marcinko

By Staff Reporters

Many investors were happy to wave goodbye to 2022, Wall Street’s worst year since 2008. The S&P finished down 19.4%, while the tech centered NASDAQ shed 33.1%. The blue-chip focused Dow Jones did better, losing just 8.8% across the year. Unfortunately, a number of senior investment bankers predict 2023 could bring more stock market woes. Most recently, in fact, Morgan Stanley Chief U.S. Equity Strategist & Chief Investment Officer, Michael Wilson, said he thought the S&P 500 could drop by another 22% in 2023.

Wilson wrote in a note this week that next year’s losses could be more significant than many are expecting. According to Bloomberg, Wilson thinks a peak in inflation would be “very negative for profitability.” He added, “The consensus could be right directionally, but wrong in terms of magnitude.”

Some analysts think that when inflation peaks, the Federal Reserve will ease up on its aggressive rate hikes and the stock market will recover. But Wilson argues this is only part of the picture. He thinks falling prices would have a knock-on effect on company profits, and the subsequent drop in margins would outweigh any benefit from a change in the Fed’s stance.

CITE: https://www.r2library.com/Resource/Title/0826102549

Wilson also alerted clients to the risk that companies would be caught “off guard” by a combination of falling demand and a catch up in supply. Supply chain issues, caused by a mix of COVID-19 lock downs, labor shortages, and other factors, have contributed to price increases and had a negative impact on production. If the supply chain starts to recover at the same time as recession-induced drops in consumption levels, he thinks the stock market could fall further.

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DAILY UPDATE: Elon Musk Wins but SPACS Do Not

Posted on January 15, 2023 by Dr. Marcinko

By Staff Reporters

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A judge just ruled that a group of laid-off Twitter employees suing the business over their severance compensation, have to pursue their claims individually rather than as part of a class action, according to a Bloomberg report. About 500 of the roughly 3,700 Twitter employees Elon Musk laid off since taking control of the company last year have already filed individual arbitration claims, according to Shannon Liss-Riordan, the lawyer who filed those claims on the workers’ behalf.

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SPAC SEEKING SPAC: Money-losing companies that recently went public via SPAC are combining with other SPACs to secure more funding and stay afloat. The ultimate goal is one giant SPAC?

DEFINITION: https://medicalexecutivepost.com/2022/06/13/spac-v-direct-listing-v-ipo/

CITE: https://www.r2library.com/Resource/Title/0826102549

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SUMMER SPEAKS of “False Dawns”

Posted on January 14, 2023 by Dr. Marcinko

By Staff Reporters

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Former Treasury Secretary Larry Summers is worried that investors and economists are becoming overly optimistic after year-over-year inflation cooled to 6.5% in December.

“One has to be careful of false dawns. If you think about it, the good news was inflation running in the 6’s, and that’s still inconceivably high by the standards of two or three years ago,” he told Bloomberg on Friday, adding that his forecast is still that a “recession this year is more likely than not.” 

Since March, Federal Reserve officials have raised interest rates seven times in hopes of taming inflation without sparking a recession, and all the while, economists and Wall Street analysts have debated whether they’ll be successful. Summers has repeatedly found himself in the bears’ camp. In October, he told the Financial Times that it would take “a recession” and “unemployment towards the 6% range” to ensure U.S. inflation is truly gone. 

CITE: https://www.r2library.com/Resource/Title/0826102549

But the economist admitted on Friday that the latest inflation report was “good news”—and it came even though the unemployment rate was just 3.5% in December. He argued that this is evidence that wages aren’t rising too dramatically, which means the Fed may be able to change tactics soon. 

So, what do you think?

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UPDATE: Dark Russian Stock Markets, Damaged ETFs, US Housing Inflation and the Markets

Posted on March 1, 2022 by Dr. Marcinko

By Staff Reporters

DARK : With Russia’s stock market closed, U.S. exchange-traded funds are signaling the scale of the rout facing the nation’s equity markets.  The Bank of Russia halted trading in Moscow on Monday, one of several measures unleashed in a bid to shield the nation’s economy from sweeping SWIFT and other sanctions.

SWIFT: https://medicalexecutivepost.com/2022/02/26/what-is-swift-banking/

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ETFs: According to Bloomberg, the VanEck Russia ETF (ticker RSX) and the iShares MSCI Russia Capped ETF (ERUS) plunged 30% and 27%, which was likely a create-to-lend activity where new shares are created for short sellers to borrow and bet against. That turned the two ETFs, which primarily track Russian energy stocks, into useful price-discovery tools for traders seeking to navigate the geopolitical turmoil caused by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.  “ETFs are suppose to be index trackers, but when that process breaks down, they take on the role of price-discovery vehicles — and it’s impressive how accurate they have been.” 

CITE: https://www.r2library.com/Resource/Title/0826102549

Housing: Amounted to about 4% for the 12 months ending in January. Comparatively, Zillow reported that home values had risen by nearly 20% over that same period of time, while rents had increased by nearly 15%.

Domestic Markets: Stocks were a mixed bag, but the S&P still suffered back-to-back losing months.

10-Year: 1.828%

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Advetising in “Worth” and “Bloomberg” Magazines

Posted on March 21, 2009 by Dr. Marcinko

Advertisers – Give Me a Break!

By Dr. David Edward Marcinko; MBA, CMP™dr-david-marcinko16

Did you know that financial advisor Judith Zabalaoui, age 71, considered a pioneer of the fee-only business-model of financial services sales, pleaded guilty to using a Ponzi scheme to embezzle more than $3 million from her New Orleans area clients between 1993 and 2007? Yep, it’s true, but this is not really noteworthy to many pundits considering the current financial meltdown on Wall Street. But, do you know … the rest of the story?

Resource Management Inc.

Most of Zabalaoui’s clients came from Resource Management Inc. in Metairie, La., which she founded in 1974, according to the Times Picayune. Apparently, she became a Certified Financial Planner® in 1979, but the certification expired in 1999.

Link: http://www.nola.com/business/t-p/index.ssf?/base/money-1/1233728420253000.xml&coll=1

Assessment

So, here’s the rub. According to reports, Resource Management Inc. was the only firm in the country where each of the principals were allegedly “selected” by Worth [1996 to present], Money [1987] and/or both magazines as one of the top financial consultants in the country. The company also made Bloomberg Wealth Manager’s list of top wealth managers in 2004.

Industry Indignation Index: 55

Now, with all due respect and humility, I have been asked several times by Worth and Bloomberg to “promote yourself” in their “advertiser-driven” publications as a top financial consultant; but never Money magazine. I have always refused their selection charges for same of $12-18,000.

Full disclosure: I am the Founder of www.CertifiedMedicalPlanner.com and a reformed insurance agent, registered investment advisor and Certified Financial Planner™.

Conclusion

And so, your thoughts and comments on this Medical Executive-Post are appreciated. Was Judith Zabalaoui a fiduciary and what about these magazine “best-of” awards? Are they worthwhile monikers or worthless sales advertisements? What about all the so-called financial certifications, designations and charters; meaningful or meaningless? What is your opinion?

Speaker: If you need a moderator or speaker for an upcoming event, Dr. David E. Marcinko; MBA – Publisher-in-Chief of the Executive-Post – is available for seminar or speaking engagements. Contact: MarcinkoAdvisors@msn.com  or Bio: www.stpub.com/pubs/authors/MARCINKO.htm

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