BOARD CERTIFICATION EXAM STUDY GUIDES Lower Extremity Trauma
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A collateralized debt obligation (CDO) is a type of structured asset-backed security (ABS). Originally developed as instruments for the corporate debt markets, after 2002 CDOs became vehicles for refinancing mortgage-backed securities (MBS).
Like other private label securities backed by assets, a CDO can be thought of as a promise to pay investors in a prescribed sequence, based on the cash flow the CDO collects from the pool of bonds or other assets it owns. Distinctively, CDO credit risk is typically assessed based on a probability of default (PD) derived from ratings on those bonds or assets.
A CMO is a debt security backed by mortgages. These mortgage pools are usually separated into different maturity classes called tranches (from the French word for “slice”). The securities were issued by private issuers, as well as the Federal Home Loan Mortgage Corporation (Freddie Mac). As the mortgages were usually government-guaranteed, CMOs usually carried AAA ratings until their current financial meltdown. The early versions of CMOs were known as “plain vanilla,” but recent developments gave us PACs (planned amortization certificates) and TACs (targeted amortization certificates); among too many others. They were all variations on how principal repayments in advance of maturity date were treated.
Stock or Manager Relevance Comparisons and Philosophy
By Dr. David Edward Marcinko MBA, CMP™
[Publisher-in-Chief]
One relatively recent performance evaluation approach that was developed to help improve the relevance of comparisons is the separation of stock universes and managers by style. This classification method attempts to distinguish between stocks or manager philosophies based upon general financial characteristics of the investments.
The Managers
In very general terms, a manager is often a growth manager if the investment approach that the manager uses focuses on stocks showing growth and momentum in its earnings and price.
A value manager is generally considered to be a manager that attempts to identify under-valued securities based upon fundamental analysis of the company. A stock may be considered either “growth” or “value” based on a given set of valuation measures such as price-to-earnings, price-to-book value, and dividend yield.
The Style
The goal of style-based performance comparisons is to take some of the biases of the market environment out of the comparison, since a portfolio’s returns will ideally be evaluated versus a universe of alternatives that represent similar investment characteristics facing the same basic market environment. Thus, if the environment is one in which investors in stocks with strong past earnings and price momentum have generally performed better than those using fundamental analysis to find under-valued stocks, comparing the growth/momentum portfolio to a growth index or universe should help eliminate the bias.
Style-based universes can help the medical professional better understand the basic environment captured over a given performance time period.
However, there are significant limitations with the various approaches to constructing style-based stock and manager universes that should be understood if they are to be used in direct performance comparisons. Taking style-based stock universes separately from style-based manager universe, one of the most significant issues regarding the categorization of stocks by “growth” and “value” styles is the lack of agreement in the specification of what a growth stock is versus a value stock. With some universes divided by price-to-book value, others by price-to-earnings and/or dividend yields and some by combinations of similar variables, stocks are often classified very differently by two different stock universes. Further, stocks move across a broad spectrum as their price and fundamentals change, resulting in stocks constantly moving between growth and value categories for any given universe. If there is ambiguity in the rating of a given stock, then the difficulty is only compounded when we attempt to boil what may be complex investment processes of an investment manager or mutual fund portfolio manager to a simple classification of growth or value. A beaten down cyclical stock that no self-respecting growth/momentum manager would purchase may be classified as “growth” because it has a high price-to-earnings ratio (i.e., from low earnings) or a high price-to-book value (i.e., from asset write-offs). Value managers are not the only ones to own low valuation stocks that have improving earnings.
The second problem with style categorization is that managers are often misclassified or they purposefully “game” the categorization of their own process in order to appear more competitive. As an example, if a manager that typically looks for relatively strong earnings/price momentum is lagging in a period when “growth” managers are outperforming, the rank of the manager can be improved simply by claiming a “value” approach. Morningstar’s “style box” classification of mutual funds by size and style of the current portfolio highlight this problem for any given fund by showing how their portfolio has changed its classification annually.
Current Events
The stock market has been booming lately. Up almost 100% since March 2009, after being down almost 50%. And so, perhaps this is a good time to re-evaluate the performance of your investment portfolio[s].
Assessment
However, this leads to an interesting question for the medical professional or his/her advisor: If a manager is still using the same basic investment philosophy and disciplines, but their “style” category has changed according to the ratings service, should you fire them? If the answer is “yes”, then the burden of monitoring and the cost of manager turnover are an inevitable part of narrow style based performance comparisons.
But, if the answer is “no,” then it is easy to see the difficulty of fitting every management approach into a simple style box. The more reasonable alternative is to use style-based stock and manager universes as a tool for understanding the environment, rather than an absolute performance benchmark.
Conclusion
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The stock markets have been near all time highs, lately. Physician colleagues and clients are so excited that they are even checking the overnight status of favorite stocks and/or the domestic/overseas markets.
Some colleagues are even becoming a bit OCD by checking the implied open of various markets the night before. But, what exactly is the Implied Open? How is it calculated?
DEFINITION: The Implied Open attempts to predict the prices at which various stock indexes will open, at 9:30am New York time. It is frequently shown on various cable television channels prior to the start of the next business day.
EXAMPLE: Considering the DJIA as an example, the basis of calculating implied open is the price of a “DJX index option futures contract”. This is not the price of the DJIA itself but rather the current ticker price of an option issued by the Chicago Board Options Exchange.
CBOE: The Chicago Board Options Exchange, located at 400 South LaSalle Street in Chicago, is the largest U.S. options exchange with annual trading volume that hovered around 1.27 billion contracts at the end of 2014. CBOE offers options on over 2,200 companies, 22 stock indices, and 140 exchange-traded funds.
NOTE: We would like to remind you that new amendments adopted by the U.S. Securities Exchange Commission (SEC) have gone into effect as of September 28, 2021. These amendments restrict the ability of market makers to publish OTC quotations for those companies that have not made required current financial and company information available to regulators and investors.
Offering a blend of active and passive styles of management, a smart beta portfolio is low cost due to the systematic nature of its core philosophy – achieving efficiency by way of tracking an underlying index (e.g., MSCI World Ex US). Combining with optimization techniques traditionally used by active managers, the strategy aims at risk/return potentials that are more attractive than a plain vanilla active or passive product.
Originally theorized by Harry Markowitz in his work on Modern Portfolio Theory (MPT), smart beta is a response to a question that forms the basis of MPT – how to best construct the optimally diversified portfolio. Smart beta answers this by allowing a portfolio to expand on the efficient frontier (post-cost) of active and passive. As a typical investor owns both the active and index fund, most would benefit from adding smart beta exposure to their portfolio in addition to their existing allocations.
Assessment: The smart beta approach is an arguably perfect intersection between traditional value investing and the efficient market hypothesis. But, is it worth the cost?
Written by doctors and healthcare professionals, this textbook should be mandatory reading for all medical school students—highly recommended for both young and veteran physicians—and an eliminating factor for any financial advisor who has not read it. The book uses jargon like ‘innovative,’ ‘transformational,’ and ‘disruptive’—all rightly so! It is the type of definitive financial lifestyle planning book we often seek, but seldom find. —LeRoy Howard MA CMPTM,Candidate and Financial Advisor, Fayetteville, North Carolina I taught diagnostic radiology for over a decade. The physician-focused niche information, balanced perspectives, and insider industry transparency in this book may help save your financial life. —Dr. William P. Scherer MS, Barry University, Ft. Lauderdale, Florida This book was crafted in response to the frustration felt by doctors who dealt with top financial, brokerage, and accounting firms. These non-fiduciary behemoths often prescribed costly wholesale solutions that were applicable to all, but customized for few, despite ever-changing needs. It is a must-read to learn why brokerage sales pitches or Internet resources will never replace the knowledge and deep advice of a physician-focused financial advisor, medical consultant, or collegial Certified Medical Planner™ financial professional. —Parin Khotari MBA,Whitman School of Management, Syracuse University, New York In today’s healthcare environment, in order for providers to survive, they need to understand their current and future market trends, finances, operations, and impact of federal and state regulations. As a healthcare consulting professional for over 30 years supporting both the private and public sector, I recommend that providers understand and utilize the wealth of knowledge that is being conveyed in these chapters. Without this guidance providers will have a hard time navigating the supporting system which may impact their future revenue stream. I strongly endorse the contents of this book.—Carol S. Miller BSN MBA PMP,President, Miller Consulting Group, ACT IAC Executive Committee Vice-Chair at-Large, HIMSS NCA Board Member This is an excellent book on financial planning for physicians and health professionals. It is all inclusive yet very easy to read with much valuable information. And, I have been expanding my business knowledge with all of Dr. Marcinko’s prior books. I highly recommend this one, too. It is a fine educational tool for all doctors.—Dr. David B. Lumsden MD MS MA,Orthopedic Surgeon, Baltimore, Maryland There is no other comprehensive book like it to help doctors, nurses, and other medical providers accumulate and preserve the wealth that their years of education and hard work have earned them. —Dr. Jason Dyken MD MBA,Dyken Wealth Strategies, Gulf Shores, Alabama I plan to give a copy of this book written ‘by doctors and for doctors’ to all my prospects, physician, and nurse clients. It may be the definitive text on this important topic. —Alexander Naruska CPA,Orlando, Florida
Health professionals are small business owners who need to apply their self-discipline tactics in establishing and operating successful practices. Talented trainees are leaving the medical profession because they fail to balance the cost of attendance against a realistic business and financial plan. Principles like budgeting, saving, and living below one’s means, in order to make future investments for future growth, asset protection, and retirement possible are often lacking. This textbook guides the medical professional in his/her financial planning life journey from start to finish. It ranks a place in all medical school libraries and on each of our bookshelves. —Dr. Thomas M. DeLauro DPM,Professor and Chairman – Division of Medical Sciences, New York College of Podiatric Medicine
Physicians are notoriously excellent at diagnosing and treating medical conditions. However, they are also notoriously deficient in managing the business aspects of their medical practices. Most will earn $20-30 million in their medical lifetime, but few know how to create wealth for themselves and their families. This book will help fill the void in physicians’ financial education. I have two recommendations: 1) every physician, young and old, should read this book; and 2) read it a second time! —Dr. Neil Baum MD,Clinical Associate Professor of Urology, Tulane Medical School, New Orleans, Louisiana
I worked with a Certified Medical Planner™ on several occasions in the past, and will do so again in the future. This book codified the vast body of knowledge that helped in all facets of my financial life and professional medical practice. —Dr. James E. Williams DABPS, Foot and Ankle Surgeon, Conyers, Georgia
This is a constantly changing field for rules, regulations, taxes, insurance, compliance, and investments. This book assists readers, and their financial advisors, in keeping up with what’s going on in the healthcare field that all doctors need to know. —Patricia Raskob CFP® EA ATA, Raskob Kambourian Financial Advisors, Tucson, Arizona I particularly enjoyed reading the specific examples in this book which pointed out the perils of risk … something with which I am too familiar and have learned (the hard way) to avoid like the Black Death. It is a pleasure to come across this kind of wisdom, in print, that other colleagues may learn before it’s too late— many, many years down the road. —Dr. Robert S. Park MD, Robert Park and Associates Insurance, Seattle, Washington
Although this book targets physicians, I was pleased to see that it also addressed the financial planning and employment benefit needs of nurses; physical, respiratory, and occupational therapists; CRNAs, hospitalists, and other members of the health care team….highly readable, practical, and understandable. —Nurse Cecelia T. Perez RN, Hospital Operating Room Manager, Ellicott City, Maryland
Personal financial success in the PP-ACA era will be more difficult to achieve than ever before. It requires the next generation of doctors to rethink frugality, delay gratification, and redefine the very definition of success and work–life balance. And, they will surely need the subject matter medical specificity and new-wave professional guidance offered in this book. This book is a ‘must-read’ for all health care professionals, and their financial advisors, who wish to take an active role in creating a new subset of informed and pioneering professionals known as Certified Medical Planners™. —Dr. Mark D. Dollard FACFAS, Private Practice, Tyson Corner, Virginia As healthcare professionals, it is our Hippocratic duty to avoid preventable harm by paying attention. On the other hand, some of us are guilty of being reckless with our own financial health—delaying serious consideration of investments, taxation, retirement income, estate planning, and inheritances until the worry keeps one awake at night. So, if you have avoided planning for the future for far too long, perhaps it is time to take that first step toward preparedness. This in-depth textbook is an excellent starting point—not only because of its readability, but because of his team’s expertise and thoroughness in addressing the intricacies of modern investments—and from the point of view of not only gifted financial experts, but as healthcare providers, as well … a rare combination. —Dr. Darrell K. Pruitt DDS, Private Practice Dentist, Fort Worth, Texas This text should be on the bookshelf of all contemporary physicians. The book is physician-focused with unique topics applicable to all medical professionals. But, it also offers helpful insights into the new tax and estate laws, fiduciary accountability for advisors and insurance agents, with investing, asset protection and risk management, and retirement planning strategies with updates for the brave new world of global payments of the Patient Protection and Affordable Care Act. Starting out by encouraging readers to examine their personal ‘money blueprint’ beliefs and habits, the book is divided into four sections offering holistic life cycle financial information and economic education directed to new, mid-career, and mature physicians.
This structure permits one to dip into the book based on personal need to find relief, rather than to overwhelm. Given the complexity of modern domestic healthcare, and the daunting challenges faced by physicians who try to stay abreast of clinical medicine and the ever-evolving laws of personal finance, this textbook could not have come at a better time. —Dr. Philippa Kennealy MD MPH, The Entrepreneurial MD, Los Angeles, California Physicians have economic concerns unmatched by any other profession, arriving ten years late to the start of their earning years. This textbook goes to the core of how to level the playing field quickly, and efficaciously, by a new breed of dedicated Certified Medical Planners™. With physician-focused financial advice, each chapter is a building block to your financial fortress. —Thomas McKeon, MBA, Pharmaceutical Representative, Philadelphia, Pennsylvania An excellent resource … this textbook is written in a manner that provides physician practice owners with a comprehensive guide to financial planning and related topics for their professional practice in a way that is easily comprehended. The style in which it breaks down the intricacies of the current physician practice landscape makes it a ‘must-read’ for those physicians (and their advisors) practicing in the volatile era of healthcare reform. —Robert James Cimasi, MHA ASA FRICS MCBA CVA CM&AA CMP™, CEO-Health Capital Consultants, LLC, St. Louis, Missouri Rarely can one find a full compendium of information within a single source or text, but this book communicates the new financial realities we are forced to confront; it is full of opportunities for minimizing tax liability and maximizing income potential. We’re recommending it to all our medical practice management clients across the entire healthcare spectrum. —Alan Guinn, The Guinn Consultancy Group, Inc., Cookeville, Tennessee Dr. David Edward Marcinko MBA CMP™ and his team take a seemingly endless stream of disparate concepts and integrate them into a simple, straightforward, and understandable path to success. And, he codifies them all into a step-by-step algorithm to more efficient investing, risk management, taxation, and enhanced retirement planning for doctors and nurses. His text is a vital read—and must execute—book for all healthcare professionals and physician-focused financial advisors. —Dr. O. Kent Mercado, JD, Private Practitioner and Attorney, Naperville, Illinois
Kudos. The editors and contributing authors have compiled the most comprehensive reference book for the medical community that has ever been attempted. As you review the chapters of interest and hone in on the most important concerns you may have, realize that the best minds have been harvested for you to plan well… Live well. —Martha J. Schilling; AAMS® CRPC® ETSC CSA, Shilling Group Advisors, LLC, Philadelphia, Pennsylvania I recommend this book to any physician or medical professional that desires an honest no-sales approach to understanding the financial planning and investing world. It is worthwhile to any financial advisor interested in this space, as well. —David K. Luke, MIM MS-PFP CMP™, Net Worth Advisory Group, Sandy, Utah Although not a substitute for a formal business education, this book will help physicians navigate effectively through the hurdles of day-to-day financial decisions with the help of an accountant, financial and legal advisor. I highly recommend it and commend Dr. Marcinko and the Institute of Medical Business Advisors, Inc. on a job well done. —Ken Yeung MBA CMP™, Tseung Kwan O Hospital, Hong Kong I’ve seen many ghost-written handbooks, paperbacks, and vanity-published manuals on this topic throughout my career in mental healthcare. Most were poorly written, opinionated, and cheaply produced self-aggrandizing marketing drivel for those agents selling commission-based financial products and expensive advisory services. So, I was pleasantly surprised with this comprehensive peer-reviewed academic textbook, complete with citations, case examples, and real-life integrated strategies by and for medical professionals. Although a bit late for my career, I recommend it highly to all my younger colleagues … It’s credibility and specificity stand alone. —Dr. Clarice Montgomery PhD MA,Retired Clinical Psychologist In an industry known for one-size-fits-all templates and massively customized books, products, advice, and services, the extreme healthcare specificity of this text is both refreshing and comprehensive. —Dr. James Joseph Bartley, Columbus, Georgia
My brother was my office administrator and accountant. We both feel this is the most comprehensive textbook available on financial planning for healthcare providers. —Dr. Anthony Robert Naruska DC,Winter Park, Florida
TOPIC: Financial Designations and Certifications [Alphabet Soup of Industry Obfuscation and Self-Promotion, or Real Gravitas – You Decide?]
EXCERPT: “Until recently, most financial advisors were regulated by the NASD, the National Association of Securities Dealers. Now the Financial Industry Regulatory Authority or FINRA is the largest non-governmental regulator for all securities firms doing business in the United States. It is a self-regulatory agency comprised of the nation’s brokerage firms. Upon completion of a required exam the FINRA will issue a variety of licenses. The most common are the Series 6, 7, and 24.
The Series 6 is essentially a license to sell packaged products, namely mutual funds. It is most commonly held by insurance agents and bank representatives. It is considered a very easy test. Holding such a license allows the holder to collect commission income through its member firm.
The Series 7 exam is a bit more difficult and includes issues relating to individual securities such as stocks, bonds and limited partnership interests. The pass rate is lower than the Series 6. The probable culprit is the extensive questioning on margin and options, topics most are unfamiliar with prior to entering the securities business.
The Series 24 covers issues of compliance and supervision and is required of Branch Managers of brokerage firms. All registered representatives (the proper name for a broker) must be supervised by someone with a Series 24, also known as a principal’s license.
Checking the background of a registered representative, a branch manager or a member firm is easily done through NASD and/or FINRA Regulation, Inc. NASDR/FINRA maintains the Central Registration Depository (CRD). The CRD can be checked for a description of a disclosed event by phone or by Internet. One should request information on an advisor’s firm as well as the individual. A reputable advisor at a disreputable firm has its own set of potentially dangerous implications.
Regardless of the above, these tests produce licenses to sell financial products. They are not educational achievements. There is virtually no academic barrier to entry for them. Stock-brokers today – hate the term – and prefer “financial advisor”; yet the term has no real meaning other than as a sales license.
Some are college graduates, and beyond; while some other experts argue that too many are not!”
Hence, the need to “raise the bar to fiduciary accountability with deep knowledge of healthcare modernity.”
Your thoughts and comments on this ME-P are appreciated. Feel free to review our top-left column, and top-right sidebar materials, links, URLs and related websites, too. Then, subscribe to the ME-P. It is fast, free and secure.
Speaker: If you need a moderator or speaker for an upcoming event, Dr. David E. Marcinko; MBA – Publisher-in-Chief of the Medical Executive-Post – is available for seminar or speaking engagements. Contact: MarcinkoAdvisors@msn.com
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Many investors were happy to wave goodbye to 2022, Wall Street’s worst year since 2008. The S&P finished down 19.4%, while the tech centered NASDAQ shed 33.1%. The blue-chip focused Dow Jones did better, losing just 8.8% across the year. Unfortunately, a number of senior investment bankers predict 2023 could bring more stock market woes. Most recently, in fact, Morgan Stanley Chief U.S. Equity Strategist & Chief Investment Officer, Michael Wilson, said he thought the S&P 500 could drop by another 22% in 2023.
Wilson wrote in a note this week that next year’s losses could be more significant than many are expecting. According to Bloomberg, Wilson thinks a peak in inflation would be “very negative for profitability.” He added, “The consensus could be right directionally, but wrong in terms of magnitude.”
Some analysts think that when inflation peaks, the Federal Reserve will ease up on its aggressive rate hikes and the stock market will recover. But Wilson argues this is only part of the picture. He thinks falling prices would have a knock-on effect on company profits, and the subsequent drop in margins would outweigh any benefit from a change in the Fed’s stance.
Wilson also alerted clients to the risk that companies would be caught “off guard” by a combination of falling demand and a catch up in supply. Supply chain issues, caused by a mix of COVID-19 lock downs, labor shortages, and other factors, have contributed to price increases and had a negative impact on production. If the supply chain starts to recover at the same time as recession-induced drops in consumption levels, he thinks the stock market could fall further.
Here are eight things to keep in mind as you prepare to file your 2022 taxes
1. Income tax brackets shifted somewhat
There are still seven tax rates, but the income ranges (tax brackets) for each rate shifted slightly to account for inflation. For 2022, the following rates and income ranges apply:
Taxable income brackets
Tax rate
Single filers
Married couples filing jointly (and qualifying widows or widowers)
10%
$0 to $10,275
$0 to $20,550
12%
$10,276 to $41,775
$20,551 to $83,550
22%
$41,776 to $89,075
$83,551 to $178,150
24%
$89,076 to $170,050
$178,151 to $340,100
32%
$170,051 to $215,950
$340,101 to $431,900
35%
$215,951 to $539,900
$431,901 to $647,850
37%
$539,901 or more
$647,851 or more
2. The standard deduction increased somewhat
After an inflation adjustment, the 2022 standard deduction increases to $12,950 for single filers and married couples filing separately and to $19,400 for single heads of household, who are generally unmarried with one or more dependents. For married couples filing jointly, the standard deduction rises to $25,900.
3. Itemized deductions remain essentially the same
For most filers, taking the higher standard deduction is more practical and saves the hassle of keeping track of receipts. But if you have enough tax-deductible expenses, you might benefit from itemizing.
State and local taxes: The deduction for state and local income taxes, property taxes, and real estate taxes is capped at $10,000.
Mortgage interest deduction: The mortgage interest deduction is limited to $750,000 of indebtedness. But people who had $1,000,000 of home mortgage debt before December 16, 2017 will still be able to deduct the interest on that loan.
Medical expenses: Only medical expenses that exceed 7.5% of adjusted gross income (AGI) can be deducted in 2022.
Charitable donations: The deductions for charitable donations are not as generous as they were in 2021. In 2022, the annual income tax deduction limits for gifts to public charities1 are 30% of AGI for contributions of non-cash assets—if held for more than one year—and 60% of AGI for contributions of cash.
Miscellaneous deductions: No miscellaneous itemized deductions are allowed.
4. IRA contribution limits remain the same and 401(k) limits are slightly higher
The traditional IRA and Roth contribution limits in 2022 remain the same as the prior year. Individuals can contribute up to $6,000 to an IRA, and those age 50 and older also qualify to make an additional $1,000 catch-up contribution. If you’re able to max out your IRA, consider doing so—you may qualify to deduct some or all of your contribution.
However, the 2022 contribution limits for 401(k) accounts have increased to $20,500. If you’re age 50 or older, you qualify to make an additional $6,500 catch-up contribution for this tax year as well.
5. You can save a bit more in your health savings account (HSA)
For 2022, the maximum you can contribute to an HSA is $3,650 for an individual (up $50 from 2021) and $7,300 for a family (up $100). People age 55 and older can contribute an extra $1,000 catch-up contribution.
To be eligible for an HSA, you must be enrolled in a high-deductible health plan (which usually has lower premiums as well). Learn more about the benefits of an HSA.
6. The Child Tax Credit is lower after a one-year bump
Tax credits, which reduce the tax you owe dollar for dollar, are normally better than deductions, which reduce how much of your income is subject to tax.
In 2021, the American Rescue Plan Act (ARPA) temporarily enlarged the Child Tax Credit. But in 2022, the credit returns to $2,000 per child age sixteen or younger. The credit is also subject to a phase-out starting at $400,000 for joint filers and $200,000 for single filers. For other qualified dependents, you can claim a $500 credit.
7. The alternative minimum tax (AMT) exemption is higher
Until the AMT exemption enacted by the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act expires in 2025, the AMT will continue to affect mostly households with incomes over $500,000. For 2022, the AMT exemptions are $75,900 for single filers and $118,100 for married taxpayers filing jointly. The phase-out thresholds are $1,079,800 for married taxpayers filing a joint return and $539,900 for all other taxpayers. (Once your income for the AMT hits the phase-out threshold, your AMT exemption begins to phase out at 25 cents for every dollar over the threshold.)
8. The estate tax exemption is even higher
The estate and gift tax exemption, which is indexed to inflation, rises to $12.06 million for 2022. But the now-higher exemption is set to expire at the end of 2025, meaning it could be essentially cut in half at that time if Congress doesn’t act.
The annual gift exclusion, which allows you to give money to your loved ones each year without incurring any tax liability or using up any of your lifetime estate and gift tax exemption, increases to $16,000 per recipient (up $1,000 from 2021).
Don’t get caught
Finally, if you’re age 72 or older, make sure you’ve taken your required minimum distribution (RMD) from your retirement accounts before the end of the year or else you face a 50% penalty on any undistributed funds (unless it’s your first RMD, in which case you can wait until April 1, 2023).
Silvergate Capital Corporation reported a sharp drop in fourth-quarter crypto-related deposits on Thursday as investors spooked by the collapse of FTX pulled out more than $8 billion in deposits, sending shares down more than 42%. The crypto-focused bank also said it would cut its workforce by 40%, or about 200 employees, as it tries to rein in costs amid a deepening industry downturn. Its stock was last trading at $12.55.
***
U.S. stocks were lower as the markets continued to speculate as to how long the Fed will keep its monetary policy tight. Yesterday’s minutes from the Fed’s December meeting suggested that the Central Bank will remain aggressive. Jobs data pointed to a tight labor market, as the ADP Employment Change Report came in higher than expected, and jobless claims were lower than anticipated, which seemed to be solidifying expectations of further rate hikes. Services sector data also came out, with output being revised higher but continuing to depict contraction.
Treasury yields were mixed, and the U.S. dollar rallied following the data, while crude oil prices rose, and gold dropped.
Equity news offered varying results, as Exxon Mobil offered mixed Q4 guidance, T-Mobile US’ phone customers topped forecasts, Constellation Brands missed earnings estimates and lowered guidance, and Conagra Brands topped quarterly estimates.
Finally, Asian stocks finished mostly higher, and European stocks were mixed following a three-day winning streak, as the markets digested the Fed’s minutes and amid optimism regarding China’s reopening.
When it comes to investing, it’s a losing proposition to try and be anything better than average. Even if you are a doctor.
I was recently reminded of this important investing precept when I attended a presentation by Ken French, a noted professor of finance at Dartmouth College.
Dr. French Speaks
“The theory is institutions are smarter than ‘dumb’ individual and can add value,”
said French.
“That is simply not true.”
His research has found that institutions are no better at trying to beat the market than individual investors. When you pay someone to do better than the market, French told us,
“You should expect to lose. It’s really hard to identify the great managers. You are wasting your time and money trying to beat the market.”
If there’s no point in trying to beat the market through “active” investing, what is the best way to invest? Through “passive” investing, that accepts average market returns. You need to reduce expenses, diversify your portfolio into index funds of various asset classes, minimize taxes, and exhibit discipline.
Reduce expenses. Passive investing generally costs around 0.20% a year in fees, compared to around 1.35% for active investing.
Diversify into index funds. Simply select an index in the asset classes you want to hold. The inherent strategy of the index will determine when to buy and sell. For example, the inherent strategy of the S&P 500 is to own a fraction of the largest 500 companies in the US. Every June, those companies that fell out of the top 500 largest are sold and those that made it into the top 500 are purchased.
Minimize taxes. The limited buying and selling of passive investing tends to reduce investment-related taxes.
Exhibit discipline. Relying on the inherent strategy of an index fund puts some distance between you and buying/selling decisions, making it easier to maintain your investment discipline during market fluctuations.
You may be thinking that, if “passive” is the way to go, you might as well make things even simpler. Why not just put your retirement money in the bank and forget it? While you can certainly do that, the results may be disastrous. If you want more than just Social Security for your retirement, you need your money to grow.
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Considerations
In 1913, nine cents bought a quart of milk. In 1963, the same nine cents bought a small glass of milk. In 2015, nine cents bought seven tablespoons of milk. Clearly, putting money under the mattress doesn’t work for the long term. The culprit of the declining purchasing power of that nine cents is inflation. The moral of this story is to make sure your money grows at least as fast as inflation. That requires investing it.
Example:
It would require $13 today to equal the purchasing power that $1 provided in 1926. Had you put one dollar in the bank in 1926, you would have $21 today. Having invested the dollar in long-term bonds would give you $132. However, invested in the S&P 500 Index (stocks), you would have $5,386.
A Mix
Does that mean you should invest all of your retirement assets in stocks? If you are one year old, probably so. If you are 60 years old, probably not. For most of us, a mixture of index funds that include many asset classes—such as global stocks, global bonds, global real estate, and commodities—is the best strategy.
Assessment
Research supports the value of diversified passive investing as long-term strategy. According to a study by Dalbar, Inc., average passive investors earn 3% to 4% more annually than average active investors. Over time, that makes a huge difference.
Conclusion
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Speaker: If you need a moderator or speaker for an upcoming event, Dr. David E. Marcinko; MBA – Publisher-in-Chief of the Medical Executive-Post – is available for seminar or speaking engagements. Contact: MarcinkoAdvisors@msn.com
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Unlike banks, the New York Stock Exchange doesn’t close on Veterans Day. Wall Street will have a full day of trading, and operate as usual on Veteran’s Day. Bond markets, which work with the federal government, will also be closed.
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U.S. stocks closed sharply higher yesterday, with all three major indexes posting their best day of gains since 2020 as investors cheered signs that U.S. inflation finally might be headed lower.
For example, the Dow Jones Industrial Average shot up about 1,198 points, or 3.7%, ending near 33,712, marking its highest level since August and its best daily percentage gain since May 2020, according to Dow Jones Market Data. The S&P 500 index gained 5.5% and the NASDAQ Composite Index closed up 7.4%, their best daily percentage increases since 2020. The sharp rally on Wall Street was led by gains in technology and communication shares, segments of the S&P 500 that booked massive gains of about 8.3% and 6.3%, respectively, according to FactSet.
Buyers came out in force after the release of October’s consumer-price index showed a 7.7% annual rate of inflation, down from 9.1% this summer, while spurring hopes that the Federal Reserve might be making headway in its fight to bring inflation down to its 2% target.
That took some of the attention off the ongoing woes at crypto exchange FTX, with bitcoin down near a 2-year low. The 10-year Treasury rate also dropped to about 3.8% Thursday, down from a 4.2% high in October ahead of the three-day weekend for the U.S. bond market, which will remain closed on Friday for Veterans Day. U.S. stock exchanges, however, will remain open Friday.
The lowering of the book or market value of the shares of a company’s stock as a result of more shares outstanding. A company’s initial registration may include more shares than are initially issued when the company goes public for the first time.
Later, an issue of more stock by a company (called a “primary offering,” distinguished from the “initial public offering”) dilutes the existing shares outstanding.
Also, earnings-per-share calculations are said to be “fully diluted” when all common stock equivalents (convertible securities, rights, and warrants) are included. “Fully diluted” numbers are used in analysis when there is a likelihood of conversion or exercise of rights and warrants.
EDITOR’S NOTE: In this interview with investment website @GuruFocus, my colleague Vitaliy shares the full gamut of how he invests, where and why. He touches on the role of being eclectic when investing, how to invest abroad, and how value investors should think about macro-economics and finance, among many other important topics. Enjoy this fun and wide-ranging interview! It is very timely with the S&P 500, DJIA and NASDAQ just posting their 4th straight day of gains while Facebook rattled investors by posting a rare profit decline, driven by the company’s heavy spending on its vision for a so-called Metaverse and simultaneously confronting advertising challenges on its existing services.
MEDICAL TREATMENT PLAN: A detailed plan with information about a patient’s disease, the goal of treatment, the treatment options for the disease and possible side effects, and the expected length of treatment.
Fees are down, expenses are up and the days of fat profit margins for physicians are over. Managed care in some form is here to stay. The tidal wave of baby boomers approaching retirement suggests the pendulum will not swing back to the “good old days” of fee-for-service medicine. Even the venture capitalists are laying off doctors because of the corona virus pandemic. And, the ACA and U.S. government, the payer for more than 50 percent of the covered population, continues to ratchet down reimbursement. Accordingly, many doctors are now working harder than ever. Unfortunately, they are also prone to irrational investing behavior and making more investment mistakes than ever before.
Here are the Institute of Medical Business Advisors’ “dirty dozen” investing blunders of physicians. Indeed, we see these common miscues among a variety of medical professionals.
Mistake 1: Having No Investment Policy Statement Just as one would not think of treating a patient without a careful history and physical examination, you should not embark on investing your hard earned capital without an investment policy statement (IPS). This important document separates do-it-yourself investors, financial salesmen, stockbrokers and amateurs from true financial professionals.
An IPS is a document specifically detailing what you want your money to do for you with an understanding of who is to do what and how they are supposed to do it. It may be three to five pages long for an individual physician, 10 to 15 pages for a small medical group retirement plan or dozens of pages for a clinic or hospital endowment fund.
Treatment plan: A properly written IPS should contain the following: • Statement of purpose • Statement of responsibilities • Investment goals and objectives • Proxy voting policy • Trading and execution guidelines • Asset mix guidelines • Social policies or other restrictions • Portfolio limitations • Performance review benchmarks • Administration and fee policy • Communication policy • Reporting policy
Mistake 2: Not Diversifying Portfolio Objectives Although the media frenzy of a few years ago has subsided, anecdotes of easy money still abound and doctors may forget that investment portfolios serve a specific purpose (e.g., retirement, college funding, etc.) within the content of a broader financial plan. Moreover, a single investment may become too large or too small a portion of the portfolio. This may be due to market growth in one component or slack in another.
Treatment plan: Diversify, monitor your holdings and select components with your risks and goals in mind. Time horizon and risk tolerance are likely to change as will the investment environment. One key contribution of modern portfolio theory (MPT), according to the 1990 Nobel Prize winner Professor Harry Markowitz, PhD, is the understanding that diversification can reduce portfolio risk. Indeed, the specific risk of a single stock may overwhelm any justification for failing to diversify.
Consider investing in sectors like basic materials, capital goods, communications and services, technology, consumer cyclicals and non-cyclicals, healthcare, energy, financial services and utilities. Investors can purchase most as individual securities, in mutual funds or as exchange traded funds (ETFs) or worldwide equity benchmark shares. Do not forget about cash equivalents, treasuries, zero coupon and municipal bonds and international securities.
Mistake 3: Forgetting The Investing Risk/Return Tradeoff Some physicians fall into the trap of chasing “hot” securities like hedge funds, limited partnerships, non-registered securities or alternate investments promising high returns. High returns are associated with increased investment risk. Accordingly, it is important to understand the risks embedded in an investment before it becomes an exposed reality.
Treatment plan: Beware of projecting historic averages going forward. The stock market is inherently volatile. While it is easy to rely on past historic averages, there are long periods of time where returns regress from their long-term historic mean. On the other hand, slumps eventually correct themselves so you should continue a prudent investing plan.
Do not confuse investing with trading or speculation. According to Gene Schmuckler, PhD, the Director of Behavioral Finance for the Institute of Medical Business Advisors, Inc., there are momentum-driven market periods when investors start to believe profits are easy and there is always a “greater fool” to buy at a higher price. Such trading has more in common with gambling than investing. Avoid market timing and the urge to jump in or out at every economic hiccup.
Mistake 4: Not Factoring In The Impact Of Taxes The desire to avoid capital gains and other taxes as a result of solid investment returns may lull some doctors into a false sense of security. An attractive investment and a slick sales pitch sometimes hide the underlying tax costs of the investment, especially when the investment is questionable. This leads doctors to give up a significant portion of the long-term growth of their assets.
Treatment plan: Income tax brackets, rates and estate taxes are almost at an all-time low in the U.S. This good fortune is due in part to the Taxpayer Relief Act of 1997, the Economic Growth and Tax Relief Reconciliation Act of 2001, and the Job and Growth Tax Relief Reconciliation Act of 2003, among other tax credits and deductions. Some mutual funds, for example, are not tax efficient while some ETFs may be tax efficient. Strive for legitimate tax reductions and avoidance but remember that tax evasion is illegal.
Mistake 5: Not Factoring In Fees And Expenses Front-end loads, back-end loads, disappearing and hidden loads, 12-b1 fees and commissions, and advertising and sales expenses can all have a significant impact on a particular investment program.
Treatment plan: Monitor the costs of your investment program to ensure that total costs are known, reasonable for the services provided and are not consuming a disproportionate amount of the investment returns. Carefully consider full-service versus discount brokerages.
Take care using discretionary assets under management (AUM) accounts where you pay a percentage for personalized money management. More often than not, these one-size-fits-all accounts are aggregated under a larger automated umbrella to harvest economies-of-scale automatically. Indeed, the mistaken notion that the advisor “is sitting on the same side of the investment table as you” starts deteriorating on critical reflection. Do not fall for the siren sales pitch (“If I make money, you make money”). Excessive risk taking, purchases and sales activity may be at your expense.
Carefully consider whether golf balls, seminars, football game tickets, pens or quarterly meetings with your “advisor” are worth the price you may ultimately pay for these minor trinkets and services. For example, in a 2 percent AUM program of $1 million, you may pay $20,000 annually, which is automatically deducted from the account. Are these “perks” worth $200,000 over the course of a decade? During the “golden age of medicine” in the ‘80s or the ranging bull market of the ‘90s, some doctors may have thought it was worth it. What about during a bear market or the projected market of lower than average returns that may be upon us?
Other problems with AUMs include: a higher fee to managed stocks than bonds, creating an equity bias; bias against paying of the mortgage, practice or acquiring real estate; bias against gifting initiatives or charitable intent. These are all problematic for the same reason that over-weighted equity classes increase advisor compensation while these other equally important considerations do not.
Mistake 6: Inappropriate Risk-Management Techniques Traditionally, physicians protected their families with life, disability, malpractice and business interruption insurance yet insurance products are not investment vehicles. They merely indemnify against catastrophic economic losses that are typically extinguished over time. Behavioral economists like Daniel Kahneman, PhD, of Princeton University, and Vernon L. Smith, PhD, of George Mason University, warn us to use these insurance products carefully since we tend to experience financial losses more intensely than gains and evaluate risks in isolation.
Additionally, a comprehensive risk management plan for doctors must acknowledge risks such as sexual harassment risks; workplace violence risks; Medicare documentation, recoupment and compliance risks; and the economic risks of divorce. There is also a plethora of acronymic risks such as the Health Insurance Portability and Accountability Act (HIPAA), the Occupational Safety and Health Administration (OSHA) Act, and many others.
Treatment plan: Be willing to abandon ancient thoughts and remain open to new ideas that identify and provide solutions to the contemporaneous insurance problems of physicians. As an example, in 2001, economist Christian Gollier, PhD, of the University of Geneva, asked, “Should one even buy personal insurance since the industry itself is so skilled at exploiting human foibles?”
Mistake 7: Inappropriate Insurance Agent It is no surprise that goaded physicians might prefer insurance vehicles like the guaranteed minimum death benefit of variable annuities or traditional cash value life insurance policies despite their high costs, huge commissions and lower returns. Agents sell these products and they work for the insurance company, not for you. Basic insurance agent credentials include the chartered financial consultant and chartered life underwriter designations, but they may remain product salesmen.
Treatment plan: Always beware the fear-mongering insurance agent salesman as the flowing coverages may be unnecessary, too expensive, provide only minimal benefits or be duplicated in other insurance policies. These include credit life or home mortgage insurance (decreasing term), life insurance for children or the elderly, accident policies for students, hospital indemnity policies, dread disease insurance, credit card insurance, pet, flight or funeral insurance, prepaid legal insurance, trip cancellation, flood, earthquake and termite insurance, and most appliance extended warranties.
Instead, consider a licensed insurance advisor or insurance counselor who sells no products, accepts no commissions and charges by the hour, all while shopping for the best companies and rates for the risk being researched. A fiduciary focused Certified Medical Planner® may be even better.
Mistake 8: Selecting The Wrong Accountant When asking for the value of a practice, ask specifically for the fair market value (FMV). One podiatrist who consulted us asked her accountant for the “value” of her practice and received its lower “book value” rather than the higher fair market value as a profitable ongoing concern. The MD lost tens of thousands of dollars in a subsequent sales transaction. Unfortunately, although the CPA produced correct figures for exactly what she requested, the doctor did not differentiate between the two terms. Later legal mediation determined that neither was responsible for the linguistic error as both parties acted in good faith. Of course, the doctor paid dearly for her mistake.
Treatment plan: Dr. Gary L. Bode, CPA, MSA, a former medical practitioner and CFO for iMBA, Inc., suggests that you take the time to discuss wants and needs with your accountant. Those from the National CPA Healthcare Advisors Association (www.hcaa.org) or the Healthcare Financial Management Association (www.hfma.org) may also increase your comfort level through additional medical expertise. Better yet, contact an experienced medical practice valuation expert or healthcare economist.
Mistake 9: Not Having Your Practice Professionally Valuated [not appraised] The sale or purchase of a medical practice may be the most important investment decision of your life. We have observed neurotic purchasers who spend far too much time, money and energy researching a fairly priced and modest practice to no avail (paralysis of analysis). Others have purchased exorbitantly priced practices for over $1 to $2 million on a handshake and promise. Accordingly, give this complex task the gravitas due, and run from those who would broker your sale with a “free” or “Internet-based valuation,” or provide “finance participation” schemes for purchase as a young practitioner.
According to IRS Revenue Ruling 59-60, the value of any medical practice is generally based upon the following: • level of expected distribution and future cash flows; • time of expected distributions and cash flows; and • uncertainty of the expected cash flows and distributions.
Moreover, one should recall that a valuation is not a source document audit. Know specialty and industry economic conditions, trends, operating history, physician bonuses, dividends, distributions and comparable practice sales. A commission or percentage-based fee is considered unethical and may be illegal.
Accounting book value is not the same as a fair market valuation. Do not use back-of-the envelope trade magazine “multiplier methods” and obtain only Uniform Standards of Professional Appraisal Practice (USPAP)-styled valuations, which were first issued by the IRS in 1994-1995.
Combine the recognized USPAP-IRS valuation methods: income method with discounted cash flow analysis, market method and cost approach. Be sure to adjust financial statements in order to normalize each line entry. You must do the discounted cash flow analysis (DCFA) on an after-tax basis and base proper assumptions on physician compensation market rates.
Understand the intangible difference between personal and business goodwill, major premiums and minority control discounts.
Doing a walk through of the practice is mandatory for your protection. Trust but verify tangible assets and liabilities, estimates of practice risks, economic assumptions and future earning capacity. Obtain a separate and independent real estate appraisal if necessary.
Make sure the valuation is written, substantiates value, supports conclusions and is signed by an appraiser who will defend the valuation in court as a qualified expert witness if necessary. This certification is formally known as an “opinion of value” and the only type we perform.
Remember to obtain two independent valuations, one for the buyer and one for the seller, and pay for each separately.
Treatment plan: Have the financing lined up before you buy a practice. The three major impediments to loan acquisition are school loan debt, a home mortgage and an automobile note in that order So, strive to reduce or eliminate them before applying for a loan. Hire licensed appraisal professionals with publishing, teaching and/or academic experience. Do not hire brokers or commissioned agents. Organizations that accredit businesses but not necessarily medical practice appraisers include:
• The Institute of Business Appraisers (www.go-iba.org) awards the certifications of certified business appraiser and business valuators accredited in valuation. • The National Association of Certified Valuation Analysts (www.nacva.com) awards the designations of certified valuation analysts and accredited valuation analysts.
Well-known medical practice and healthcare system appraisers include the big 10 consulting firms for hospitals and national healthcare systems. However, the Arthur Andersen debacle confirms that “bigger is not always better.” Medical practice niche players include Health Capital Consultants, LLC, (www.healthcapital. com), which provides large- and medium-sized practice valuations.
The Institute of Medial Business Advisors Inc, (www.MedicalBusinessAdvisors.com) specializes in small to medium practices, emerging healthcare organizations, clinics and ambulatory surgery center valuations and confers the designation Certified Medical Planner® on its independent consultants, appraisers and advisors.
Mistake 10: Selecting The Wrong Attorney Consider the bizarre tale of the two fledgling internist partner/classmates who signed an attorney-prepared, buy-sell agreement upon creation of their nascent practice 30 years beforehand. The agreement stipulated that upon departure or dissolution, the remaining partner’s ownership would be determined not by some periodically updated valuation formula or appraisal process, Instead, it would be determined by a “matched and lost” process, also known as the “flip of a coin” for a medical conglomerate now worth over $1 million.
Treatment plan: Select a health law attorney and not your brother-in-law. More importantly, experience in the medical arena counts. Consult iMBA, Inc. or the American Health Lawyers Association (www.healthlawyers.org) as a referral resource.
Mistake 11: Blind Trust Of Wall Street And Financial Advisors Stockbroker salesmen and the big brokerage houses that underwrite and recommend stocks may have credibility problems and some physicians get burned with the adrenaline rush of “self-directed” portfolios. Presently, both the Security Exchange Commission (SEC) and National Association of Securities Dealers are investigating far too many insurance companies and major wire houses for reverse churning (charging a fee on assets for which the stockbroker is providing virtually no services) and/or double dipping (charging an ongoing fee on mutual funds on which the client already paid a substantial commission).
No one knows for sure how to mitigate such shenanigans since human nature and self-interest are involved. Rest assured that the economic cycle will never be repealed and you must beware the four most dangerous words on Wall Street: “This time, it’s different.” Yet some believe the answer may lay with the independent fee-only advisor who charges by the hour, by the engagement, or pro re nata for advice. Beware of taking the advice of a financial advisor carte blanche. The prime duty of a financial advisor should be to clients. Yet the very term “financial advisor” has no real academic or consistent meaning in the industry. The only hurdle to becoming one is passing a simple securities industry or state insurance sales licensing examination. Most are brokerage and agency employees with a duty to their respective firms, not you.
Treatment plan: Commissioned stockbrokers are fine to use if their fees are transparent and they offer value to you. However, be aware that Wall Street sales mavens and large broker-dealers (wire-houses) recently lobbied Congress not to be responsible to you after the sale. The Financial Planning Association is suing the SEC over this proposal to exempt the nation’s largest wire-house brokerages from certain fiduciary responsibilities associated with investment advisory regulations.
To avoid selecting the wrong financial advisor, choose an independent advisor who takes pride in fiduciary responsibility, knows the medical profession and eschews product sales commissions whenever possible. Such a professional is more than deserving of a fee. Do not hesitate to pay it.
To determine if your current advisor is the right choice, just ask to see the documents below: • form ADV parts I and II; • sample investment policy statement; • registered investment advisor or series #65 investment advisory license • CMP® license number; • ethics requirement or attestation statements; and • advanced degrees and designations, etc.
Some CMPs® and fee-only financial advisors possess these professional certifications as required. Stockbrokers, salesmen, intermediaries and insurance agents may not. All monikers suggest but do not guarantee impartiality and a lack of bias. Also make sure your financial advisor is experienced in the rapidly changing healthcare industrial complex.
Mistake 12: Lack Of A Complete Financial Plan While many doctors have an investment portfolio, few have a comprehensive personal financial plan, especially one designed for medical professionals.
Treatment plan: Typically such plans consider the risk tolerance and time frame of several standard components such as insurance, taxation, investing, retirement and estate planning. Today’s practicing physicians should direct attention toward practice enhancement, economic risk management, valuations, charitable giving and succession planning. All should be interrelated in an economically sound manner and not be counterproductive to individual components of the plan.
In Conclusion Often, successful investing and avoiding a life of economic servitude is simply a matter of delayed gratification and mistake avoidance rather than investing acumen. A good rule of thumb is to pursue fundamentals over fads and seek wise counsel when required.
About the Author
Dr. Marcinko is a Certified Financial Planner and Certified Medical Planner® and CEO for www.MedicalBusinessAdvisors.com, sponsor of the Certified Medical Planner charter designation program. He can be reached by phone at (770) 448-0769 or by e-mail at MarcinkoAdvisors@msn.com.
References 1. Marcinko DE. Financial planning for Physicians and Advisors. Jones and Bartlett Publishers, Sudbury, Mass., 2005. 2. Marcinko DE. Insurance and Risk Management Strategies for Physicians and Advisors. Jones and Bartlett Publishers, Sudbury, Mass., 2005.
Investors are eyeing this week’s Consumer Price Index report and sifting through corporate earnings reports, which could both bring bearish news to the market.
Morgan Stanley’s Mike Wilson just told CNBC he believed earnings would be a mixed bag, and JPMorgan warned investors that stocks could see another 5% sell-off on Thursday if September inflation clocks in above 8.3%.
WHO Are the Best Predictors of Stock Market Performance?
Every day CNBC airs dozens of “financial professionals” making market forecasts. Similarly, every financial publication has multiple pieces regarding the future of the stock market. With so much information, how is it possible to determine who is worth listening to and what information to incorporate into your investment strategy?
Dropping Names
Without dropping any names, I’d suggest that the more confident a market pundit is about his or her prediction, the more you should question their advice.
People who make strong, unwavering forecasts are interesting to watch and appear as intelligent, appealing leaders whose advice is worth following. Meanwhile, people who frequently say phrases such as “it depends,” “maybe,” or even “I don’t know” don’t seem to be adding much value and don’t appear to be any more knowledgeable than the average investor. Yet, I’d suggest you tune out the stanch forecaster pounding his fist on the table as he speaks and rather listen closely to the individual who is less willing to make firm predictions.
Stock market performance
Stock market performance is clearly not a result of any singular factor such as whether or not companies will generate more profits than expected. If this was the case, making market predictions would be easy – one could simply guess the answer to be yes or no and have a 50% chance of being correct. Rather, hitting profit targets is only point A on a long list of factors impacting stock market performance.
Point B may be whether or not the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates during their next meeting. Again, our market forecaster could guess yes or no to this question and have a 50% chance of being correct. However, when considering both factors A and B, now our market forecaster has to be right twice on two issues where there is only a 50% probability of being correct on each. Simple math tells us there is only a 25% chance that this will occur (50% x 50% = 25%).
Point C may be whether the republicans or the democrats win the 2016 election. Again, there is a 50% chance of either possibility. Now there are three factors in play, each with a 50% probability, so the probability that the market pundit will get all three factors correct is 12.5% (50% x 50% x 50% = 12.5%).
Point D may be whether the US dollars strengthens or weakens when compared to other currencies. Again, there is a 50% chance of getting this right, so when we consider all four factors, there is now a 6.25% chance of getting it right (50% x 50% x 50% x 50% = 6.25%).
The equation
There are hundreds of factors that go into this equation. Will Greece have another economic crisis? Will the price of oil go up or down? Will a war breakout with Russia? This is exactly why forecasting market performance is so difficult!
For this reason, the people who make the best forecasters are people who say phrases such as “perhaps,” “however,” and “on the other hand” a lot. Doing so illustrates that the individual has looked at the situation from a lot of different perspectives and realizes that everything may not go according to plan. These types of people also tend to admit when they are wrong more willingly and update their analysis utilizing the latest information available, even if the new information doesn’t reflect what they previously anticipated. Their thought process is likely: “I got point A wrong, so I need to adjust my thinking on point B, which will have an impact on point C, so how does this change my perspective on point D.” We’ll call this a point-A-to-point-B-to-point-C-to-point-D mentality.
By comparison, the forecaster who makes the strong prediction while staring into the camera likely utilizes more of a point-A-to-point-D mentality. They are less likely to admit that there are more factors affecting market performance than can be managed, and less likely to incorporate new information that doesn’t coincide with his previous prediction when making forward-looking forecasts. Their thought process is likely: “I may have gotten point A wrong, but that doesn’t matter. All that matters is point D and I believe I got that right when making my prediction.” This approach is obviously less logic-based than the approach taken by the forecaster who knows there are too many factors to enable an individual to make a confident prediction.
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Assessment
While people who make confident predictions regarding market performance are entertaining to watch and provide advice that is simple to follow (he said buy, so I’ll buy), their advice is not likely to be any more accurate than other market pundits. In fact, if they are unwilling to admit when they get any potential factor concerning market performance wrong, their advice may be more damaging then useful. By comparison, market forecasters who utilize phrases such as “however,” “it is hard to say,” and “I’m not sure” provide advice that may come off as unhelpful or impossible to follow, but it is these people who provide logic-based nuggets of information that are likely to benefit your investment portfolio.
ABOUT
Lon Jefferies, a Certified Financial Planner™ (CFP), is a fee-only financial advisor and trusted fiduciary at Net Worth Advisory Group in Salt Lake City, Utah. He is dedicated to providing comprehensive financial planning and investment management on a fee-only basis.
Conclusion
Your thoughts and comments on this ME-P are appreciated. Feel free to review our top-left column, and top-right sidebar materials, links, URLs and related websites, too. Then, subscribe to the ME-P. It is fast, free and secure.
Speaker: If you need a moderator or speaker for an upcoming event, Dr. David E. Marcinko; MBA – Publisher-in-Chief of the Medical Executive-Post – is available for seminar or speaking engagements. Contact: MarcinkoAdvisors@msn.com
OUR OTHER PRINT BOOKS AND RELATED INFORMATION SOURCES:
I was having lunch with a close friend of mine. He mentioned that he had accumulated a significant sum of money and did not know what to do with it. It was sitting in bonds, and inflation was eating its purchasing power at a very rapid rate.
He is a dentist and had originally thought about expanding his business, but a shortage of labor and surging wages turned expanding into a risky and low-return investment. He complained that the stock market was extremely expensive. I agreed.*
Many successful physician investors, retirement account managers or endowment fund administrators will establish a “strategic” allocation policy that is intended to guide long-term (greater than one-year) investment decisions.
Thinking Long Term?
This strategic allocation reflects the endowment’s thinking regarding the existence of perceived fundamental shifts in the market. Most endowments will also establish a target range or band for each asset class. The day-to-day managers then have the flexibility to make tactical decisions for a given class so long as they stay within the target range.
Terms
The term “tactical” when used in the context of investment strategy refers to the investor or manager’s ability to take advantage of short-term (under one year) market anomalies such as pricing discrepancies between different sectors or across different styles.
Assessment
Historically, tactical decisions with respect to asset allocation were derided as “market timing.” However, market timing implies moving outside of the target ranges whereas tactical decision making simply addresses the opportunistic deployment of funds within the asset class target range.
So, what do you think?
Conclusion
Your thoughts and comments on this ME-P are appreciated. Feel free to review our top-left column, and top-right sidebar materials, links, URLs and related websites, too. Then, subscribe to the ME-P. It is fast, free and secure.
Speaker: If you need a moderator or speaker for an upcoming event, Dr. David E. Marcinko; MBA – Publisher-in-Chief of the Medical Executive-Post – is available for seminar or speaking engagements. Contact: MarcinkoAdvisors@msn.com
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All about the Medical Executive-PostBusiness Model
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One of the questions we receive most often from readers of the Medical Executive-Post is how can we “afford” to give away so much content for free. Or stated another way, “how do we get paid for all of this?”
The simple answer is that we know many (or even most) of you will simply take the ideas that we share and implement them yourself. Do-It-YourSelfers can always simply purchase our texts, books and peer reviewed handbooks redacted in more than a thousand, medical, law, business and graduate schools, as well as the Library of Congress,Institute of Health and Library of Congress.
On the other hand, some of you will realize you need some additional help.
For example:
Maybe as a financial advisor you’re “stuck” in your financial planning business and recognize that some outside assistance is necessary to help you get to the next level of niche specificity thru our Certified Medical Planner™ chartered certification program designation. Helping physicians of all specialty types in a fiduciary focused manner is the proverbial Win-Win for all concerned.
OR, perhaps you are seeking a glossary of terms and definitions in heath economics, finance, accounting, insurance, managed care, health information technology and security; found in our Health Dictionary Series Wiki Project? Free and print versions are available.
OR, as a doctor maybe your medical practice is growing so much you just hit a wall where you don’t have time to do it all for your patients. After all, with only “so much” time available every day and week, it’s vital to delegate or outsource anything that isn’t really core to your practice and management skill set.
OR, maybe you are even starting, buying or selling your medical practice and need our financial and valuation services. Part (1) – Part (2) – Part (3) Financial, estate, investing and retirement planning services are also available.
OR, you may just need a second informed opinion about a topic not listed; there are a myriad of issues to consider in the competitive ecosystem today.
So, in the meantime, I hope that the ME-P content continues to be helpful food for thought, and perhaps we’ll have an opportunity to cross paths soon at a future conferences or podcasts. Feel free to invite us to speak at your own seminar/podcast online V-log, as well.
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Like many professional investors, I love companies that pay dividends. Dividends bring tangible and intangible benefits: Over the last hundred years, half of total stock returns came from dividends.
In a world where earnings often represent the creative output of CFOs’ imaginations, dividends are paid out of cash flows, and thus are proof that a company’s earnings are real.
Finally, a company that pays out a significant dividend has to have much greater discipline in managing the business, because a significant dividend creates another cash cost, so management has less cash to burn in empire-building acquisitions.
Financial Investing risk is any of various types of risk associated with financing, including financial transactions that include company loans in risk of default. Often it is understood to include only downside risk, meaning the potential for financial loss and uncertainty about its extent.
Although broad investing risks can be quickly summarized as “the failure to achieve spending and inflation-adjusted growth goals,” individual assets may face any number of other subsidiary risks:
Call risk – The risk, faced by a holder of a callable bond that a bond issuer will take advantage of the callable bond feature and redeem the issue prior to maturity. This means the bondholder will receive payment on the value of the bond and, in most cases, will be reinvesting in a less favorable environment (one with a lower interest rate)
Capital risk – The risk an investor faces that he or she may lose all or part of the principal amount invested.
Commodity risk – The threat that a change in the price of a production input will adversely impact a producer who uses that input.
Company risk – The risk that certain factors affecting a specific company may cause its stock to change in price in a different way from stocks as a whole.
Concentration risk – Probability of loss arising from heavily lopsided exposure to a particular group of counterparties
Counterparty risk – The risk that the other party to an agreement will default.
Credit risk – The risk of loss of principal or loss of a financial reward stemming from a borrower’s failure to repay a loan or otherwise meet a contractual obligation.
Currency risk – A form of risk that arises from the change in price of one currency against another.
Deflation risk – A general decline in prices, often caused by a reduction in the supply of money or credit.
Economic risk – the likelihood that an investment will be affected by macroeconomic conditions such as government regulation, exchange rates, or political stability.
Hedging risk – Making an investment to reduce the risk of adverse price movements in an asset.
Inflation risk – The uncertainty over the future real value (after inflation) of your investment.
Interest rate risk – Risk to the earnings or market value of a portfolio due to uncertain future interest rates.
Legal risk – risk from uncertainty due to legal actions or uncertainty in the applicability or interpretation of contracts, laws or regulations.
Liquidity risk – The risks stemming from the lack of marketability of an investment that cannot be bought or sold quickly enough to prevent or minimize a loss.
Economist Wade Donald Pfau wrote an article called, “Capital Market Expectations, Asset Allocation, and Safe Withdrawal more than a decade ago. Today, is is still a vital read.
Abstract
Most retirement withdrawal rate studies are either based on historical data or use a particular assumption about portfolio returns unique to the study in question.
But, financial advisors and planners may have their own capital market expectations for future returns from stocks, bonds, and other assets they deem suitable for their clients’ portfolios. These uniquely personal expectations may or may not bear resemblance to those used for making retirement withdrawal rate guidelines. The objective here is to provide a general framework for thinking about how to estimate sustainable withdrawal rates and appropriate asset allocations for clients based on one’s capital market expectations, as well as other inputs about the client including the planning horizon, tolerance for exhausting wealth, and personal concerns about holding riskier assets.
The study also tests the sensitivity of various assumptions for the recommended withdrawal rates and asset allocations, and finds that these assumptions are very important. Another common feature of existing studies is to focus on an optimal asset allocation, which is expected either to minimize the probability of failure for a given withdrawal rate, or to maximize the withdrawal rate for a given probability of failure. Retirement withdrawal rate studies are known in this regard for lending support to stock allocations in excess of 50 percent.
Assessment
This study shows that usually there are a wide range of asset allocations which can be expected to perform nearly as well as the optimal allocation, and that lower stock allocations are indeed justifiable in many cases.
NOTE: Wade Donald Pfau is an Associate Professor of Economics at the National Graduate Institute for Policy Studies (GRIPS) in Tokyo, Japan. His PhD in economics was from Princeton University.
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Modern Portfolio Theory approaches investing by examining the complete market and the full economy. MPT places a great emphasis on the correlation between investments.
DEFINITION:
Correlation is a measure of how frequently one event tends to happen when another event happens. High positive correlation means two events usually happen together – high SAT scores and getting through college for instance. High negative correlation means two events tend not to happen together – high SATs and a poor grade record.
No correlation means the two events are independent of one another. In statistical terms two events that are perfectly correlated have a “correlation coefficient” of 1; two events that are perfectly negatively correlated have a correlation coefficient of -1; and two events that have zero correlation have a coefficient of 0.
Correlation has been used over the past twenty years by institutions and financial advisors to assemble portfolios of moderate risk. In calculating correlation, a statistician would examine the possibility of two events happening together, namely:
If the probability of A happening is 1/X;
And the probability of B happening is 1/Y; then
The probability of A and B happening together is (1/X) times (1/Y), or 1/(X times Y).
There are several laws of correlation including;
Combining assets with a perfect positive correlation offers no reduction in portfolio risk. These two assets will simply move in tandem with each other.
Combining assets with zero correlation (statistically independent) reduces the risk of the portfolio. If more assets with uncorrelated returns are added to the portfolio, significant risk reduction can be achieved.
Combing assets with a perfect negative correlation could eliminate risk entirely. This is the principle with “hedging strategies”. These strategies are discussed later in the book.
In the real world, negative correlations are very rare
Most assets maintain a positive correlation with each other. The goal of a prudent investor is to assemble a portfolio that contains uncorrelated assets. When a portfolio contains assets that possess low correlations, the upward movement of one asset class will help offset the downward movement of another. This is especially important when economic and market conditions change.
As a result, including assets in your portfolio that are not highly correlated will reduce the overall volatility (as measured by standard deviation) and may also increase long-term investment returns. This is the primary argument for including dissimilar asset classes in your portfolio. Keep in mind that this type of diversification does not guarantee you will avoid a loss. It simply minimizes the chance of loss.
In the table provided by Ibbotson, the average correlation between the five major asset classes is displayed. The lowest correlation is between the U.S. Treasury Bonds and the EAFE (international stocks). The highest correlation is between the S&P 500 and the EAFE; 0.77 or 77 percent. This signifies a prominent level of correlation that has grown even larger during this decade. Low correlations within the table appear most with U.S. Treasury Bills.
QUESTION: We are in near bear market correction territory – especially for tech stocks – so what are the 2 major types of valuation approaches for common stock?
ANSWER: There are basically two different approaches for common stock valuation; top-down and bottom-up. Under either of the two fundamental approaches, a physician investor will have to work with individual company data. In reality, each of these approaches is used by investors and security analysts when doing fundamental analysis.
With the bottom-up approach, investors focus directly on a company’s prospects. Analysis of such information as the company’s products, its competitive position, and its financial status leads to an estimate of the company’s earnings potential, and, ultimately, its value in the market. Considerable time and effort are required to produce the type of detailed financial analysis needed to understand a firm’s standing. The emphasis in this approach is on finding companies with good long-term growth prospects, and making accurate earnings estimates.
The top-down approach is the opposite of the bottom-up approach. Investors begin with the economy and the overall market, considering such important factors as interest rates and inflation. They next consider likely industry prospects, or sectors of the economy that are likely to do particularly well (or particularly poorly). Finally, having decided that factors are favorable for investing, and having determined which parts of the overall economy are likely to perform well, individual companies are analyzed.
Population health has been defined as “the health outcomes of a group of individuals, including the distribution of such outcomes within the group”. It is an approach to health that aims to improve the health of an entire human population or cohort. http://www.HealthDictionarySeries.org
History
In fact, the nominal “father of population health” is colleague and Dean David B. Nash MD MBA of Jefferson Medical School in Philadelphia. And, although I attended Temple University down the street, David still wrote the Foreword to my textbook years later; Financial Management Strategies for Hospitals and Healthcare Organizations [Tools, Techniques, Checklists and Case Studies].
Now age, income, location, race, gender and education are just a few characteristics that differentiate the world’s population. These are called ”disparities” and they have a major impact on people’s lives; especially their healthcare. And, I’ve written about them before. Perform a ME-P “search” for more.
So, it’s only natural that we’re keeping an eye on two major demographic trends: aging baby boomers and maturing Millennials [1982-2002 approximately].
Why it’s important
The impact of large population shifts propagate throughout an economy benefitting certain sectors more than others and influencing a country’s growth prospects; tantalizing investing ideas?
Example:
For example, as baby boomers retire, we’ll likely see higher spending on health care, but less on education and raising children. Likewise, tech-savvy Millennials will likely prioritize consumption on experiences over cars and houses [leading economic indicator].
So, can we profit from these trends?
Assessment
Well maybe – maybe not! Overall economic prospects may not be completely affected by these trends. Spending habits on combined goods and services will shift, rather than rise or decline.
So, be careful. What matters most for your investment success is your demographics and investing according to your personal circumstances and goals [paradox-of-thrift].
Conclusion
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Asset allocation is one of the key factors contributing to long-term investment success.
When designing a portfolio that represents their risk tolerance, investors should be aware that a portfolio that is 50% stocks is likely to obtain approximately half of the gain when the market advances but suffer only half the loss when the market declines.
This general principle frequently holds true over extended investing cycles, but can waiver during shorter holding periods.
Case Model
For example, a fairly typical physician client of mine who has a 50% stock, 50% bond portfolio has obtained a return of 4.62% over the last 12 months, while the S&P 500 has obtained a return of 14.31% over the same time period (as of 10/30/14).
An investor expecting to obtain half the return of the index would anticipate a return of 7.15%, and by this measuring stick, has underperformed the market by over 2.50% during the last year.
What caused this differential?
Answer
The issue resides in how we define “the market.” In this example, we use the S&P 500 index as a measure for how the market as a whole is performing. As you may know, the S&P 500 (and the Dow Jones Industrial Average, for that matter) consists solely of large company U.S. stocks.
Of course, a diversified portfolio owns a mixture of large, mid, and small cap U.S. stocks, as well as international and emerging market equities. Consequently, comparing the performance of a basket of only large cap stocks to the performance of a diversified portfolio made up of a variety of different asset classes isn’t an apples-to-apples comparison.
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Frequently, the diversified portfolio will outperform the non-diversified large cap index because several of the components of the diversified portfolio will obtain higher returns than those achieved by large cap holdings.
However, the past 12 months has been a case where a diversified portfolio underperformed the large cap index because large cap stocks were the best performing asset class over the time period. In fact, over the last twelve months, there has been a direct correlation between company size and stock performance (as of 10/30/14):
Large Cap Stocks (S&P 500): 14.92%
Mid Cap Stocks (Russell Mid Cap): 11.08%
Small Cap Stocks (Russell 2000): 4.45%
International Stocks (Dow Jones Developed Markets): -1.05%
Since large cap stocks were the best performing element of a diversified portfolio over the last 12 months, in retrospect, an investor would have obtained a superior return by owning only large cap stocks during the period as opposed to owning a diversified mix of different equities. Does this mean owning only large cap stocks rather than a diversified portfolio is the best investment approach going forward? Of course not.
Year after year, we don’t know which asset category will provide the best return and a diversified portfolio ensures we have exposure to each year’s big winner. Additionally, although large caps were this year’s winner, they could easily be next year’s big loser, and a diversified portfolio ensures we don’t have all our investment eggs in one basket.
Don’t be overly concerned if your diversified portfolio is underperforming a non-diversified benchmark over a short period of time. As always, long-term results should be more heavily weighted than short-term swings, and having a diversified portfolio is likely to maximize the probability of coming out ahead over an extended period.
Conclusion
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Long-Short is an active portfolio construction discipline that balances long positions in high expected return securities and short positions in low expected return securities of approximately equal value and market sensitivity. This type of portfolio is “neutralized” or immunized against changes in value of the underlying market and, therefore, has zero systematic (beta) risk. If the selected securities perform as expected, the long-short positions will provide a positive return, whether the market rises or falls.
Misconceptions
While long-short portfolios are often perceived and portrayed as much costlier and much riskier than long-only, it is inherently neither. Much of the incremental cost and risk is either largely dependent on the amount of leverage employed or controllable via optimization. Those costs and risks that are not controllable—financial intermediation costs of borrowing shares to short, the trading costs incurred to meet long-short balancing, margin requirements, uptick rules, and the risks of unlimited losses on short positions—do not invalidate the viability of long-short strategies.
Long-Short Advantages
Compared with long-only portfolios, long-short portfolios offer enhanced flexibility not only in the control of risk and pursuit of return, but also in asset allocation. Basic market-neutral portfolios achieve a return consisting of three components: (1) interest on funds held as a liquidity buffer, (2) interest on the short sale proceeds maintained with the broker, and (3) the return spread between the aggregate long and aggregate short positions in the portfolios.
Disadvantages
Share borrow-ability and uptick rules make short-selling more difficult and costly than going long. Also, it may be legally or contractually restricted for some investors, such as mutual funds. Inefficiencies may be concentrated in overpriced stocks and, accordingly, short sales of the most overpriced stocks may offer higher positive returns than long purchases of underpriced stocks.
Assessment
Long-only portfolios are confined to altering the weighting of securities within an index in order to realize an excess return. Long-short portfolios are not constrained by index weights and, because they can short securities, they can “underweight” a security by as much as investment insights and risk considerations dictate. Long-short portfolios can be enhanced by “equitizing” them using stock index futures.
Note: “The Long and Short on Long-Short” by Bruce I. Jacobs and Kenneth N. Levy, The Journal of Investing, Spring 1997, pp. 73–86, Institutional Investor, Inc.
Conclusion
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U.S. personal income rose 0.42% in May, which equates to 5% on an annualized basis. With inflation (8.26% annualized) so much higher than income (5% annualized), consumers have to borrow or dip into savings to continue buying the same amount of goods and services they purchased last year.
And, in a recent survey, Clever found that retirees average only $191,659 saved for retirement. That’s not a lot for what could be a 20- to 30-year time period. This would translate to an annual income of $7,666. On a monthly basis, that’s just $639 — still not a lot when combined with the average Social Security benefit. NOTE: To be fair, that $191,659 is based on a single survey of 1,000 retired Americans. That number may look different across a much larger sample size.
Finally, amid rising inflation rates and slowing demand, tech and crypto companies cut more jobs in May than in the previous four months combined, according to out placement firm Challenger, Gray & Christmas. There were 4,044 job cuts in the tech industry compared to about 500 through the first four months of the year and the most in one month since December 2020. Crypto and other companies in the fintech industry cut 1,619 jobs in May, compared to 440 in January through April.
A Vital Feedback Loop for any Medical Professional’s Investment Program
By Dr. David Edward Marcinko MBA, CMP™
[Publisher-in-Chief]
While recently visiting the beautiful Johns Hopkins University and Medical School in Baltimore Maryland, I realized that investment portfolio performance measurement — much like an annual physical exam in the Spring — is an important feedback loop to monitor progress towards the goals of the medical professional’s investment program.
Performance comparisons to market indices and/or peer groups are a useful part of this feedback loop, as long as they are considered in the context of the market environment and with the limitations of market index and manager database construction. Inherent to performance comparisons is the reality that portfolios taking greater risk will tend to out-perform less risky investments during bullish phases of a market cycle, but are also more likely to under-perform during the bearish phase. The reason for focusing on performance comparisons over a full market cycle is that the phases biasing results in favor of higher risk approaches can be balanced with less favorable environments for aggressive approaches to lessen/eliminate those biases.
THINK: The “flash crash” of March 2009, and the DJIA now hovering near 12,000 of late.
The Biases
Can we eliminate the biases of the market environment by adjusting performance for the risk assumed by the portfolio? While several interesting calculations have been developed to measure risk-adjusted performance, the unfortunate answer is that the biases of the market environment still tend to have an impact even after adjusting returns for various measures of risk.
However, medical professionals and their advisors will have many different risk-adjusted return statistics presented to them, so understanding the Sharpe ratio, Treynor ratio, Jensen’s measure or alpha, Morningstar star ratings, etc. and their limitations should help to improve the decisions made from the performance measurement feedback loop.
And, these are discussed elsewhere on this ME-P.
Conclusion
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Markets: After booming stocks had their worst day of the year because of raging inflation, slowing economic growth, and a potential recession.
Crypto: Bitcoin and other major cryptos like ethereum also tumbled in the aftermath of the FOMC announcement. They’ve typically tracked the performance of growth stocks, which have gotten hammered on the prospect of higher interest rates.
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Almost every major online retailer reporting earnings with signs of a decline:
Wayfair shares cratered nearly 26% yesterday after announcing that its active customer count dropped 23.4% from a year ago.
Bed Bath & Beyond reported an 18% nosedive in online sales.
Etsy and eBay shares both dropped by double digits yesterday after giving weak guidance for the current quarter.
At least five senior executives from Meta’s fledgling e-commerce division have fled in the last six months.
Shopify shares plummeted about 15% on Thursday after posting much lower-than-expected earnings.
In this podcast, host Dara Albright and guest, Eric Satz, Founder and CEO of Alto IRA, discuss how modern Self-Directed IRAs (SDIRAs) are democratizing retirement planning by providing all Americans with the ability to add non-correlated alternative asset classes to tax-advantaged accounts.
The single greatest – and free – investment tool is also disclosed.
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Discussion highlights include:
How SDIRAs offer wealth building opportunities for “not-yet accredited investors”;
How SDIRAs have evolved to accommodate micro-sized alternative investments;
Why alternative assets belong in retirement vehicles;
Three reasons most retirement savers are underweighted in non-correlated assets;
Trading cryptocurrencies without tax consequences;
Why RIAs are looking to ALTO for clients’ crypto allocation;
DEFINITION: A rate of return (RoR) is the net gain or loss of an investment over a specified time period, expressed as a percentage of the investment’s initial cost. When calculating the rate of return, you are determining the percentage change from the beginning of the period until the end.
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And so, according to Greg McBride CFA, before you invest your money, you’re likely wondering how much you’re going to earn. This is known as the rate of return. The rate of return is expressed as a percentage of the total amount you invested. If you invest $1,000 and get back your original investment plus an additional $100 in interest, you’ve earned a 10 percent return.
However, numbers don’t always tell the full story. You’ll also need to think about how long you plan to keep the money invested, how your investment options have performed historically and how inflation will impact your bottom line.
Key return on investment statistics
When you’re trying to get the best return on your investment, you’ll likely start combing through loads of data. A good place to start is looking at the past decade of returns on some of the most common investments:
A stock buyback is when a public company uses cash to buy shares of its own stock on the open market. A company may do this to return money to shareholders that it doesn’t need to fund operations and other investments
Share buybacks can create value for investors in a few ways: Repurchases return cash to shareholders who want to exit the investment. With a buyback, the company can increase earnings per share, all else equal. The same earnings pie cut into fewer slices is worth a greater share of the earnings.
A stock buyback typically means that the price of the remaining outstanding shares increases. This is simple supply-and-demand economics: there are fewer outstanding shares, but the value of the company has not changed, therefore each share is worth more, so the price goes up.
But, the practice has faced criticism from labor unions, the SEC, and even President Biden, who proposed stricter stock buyback regulations for company execs last week.
Nevertheless,
Stock buybacks from S&P 500 companies are expected to pass $1 trillion this year, after hitting a record $882 billion in 2021, according to Goldman Sachs.
In recent years, Starbucks spent $13.5 billion repurchasing shares.
Pink sheets are an over-the-counter (OTC) market that connects broker-dealers electronically. There is no trading floor and the quotations are also all done electronically. Since there is no central trading floor or stock exchange like the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE), the pink sheet-listed companies do not have the same criteria to fulfill as the companies listed on national stock exchanges. Many stocks listed on the pink sheets are low-priced penny stocks that trade for under $5 a share.
Pink sheets got their name because the original pink sheets listing the stocks were actually printed and distributed on pink pieces of paper. Trading over-the-counter (OTC) refers to the process of how securities listed on the pink sheets are traded through a broker-dealer network.
A client recently asked me whether there is a difference in our sell discipline between high and low growth companies.
Selling is one of the hardest parts of investing. I wrote a lot on the subject in the past, but let’s zoom in on how our selling practice differs between high-growth companies with long runways for compounding and slow-growth companies.
EDITOR’S NOTE: It has been a few years since I spoke with my colleague Vitaliy. But, I read his newsletters and blog regularly and suggest all ME-P readers do the same.
I read somewhere that chess is a game of small advantages. When the game starts, the players are equal – both hold the same number of pieces in the same positions. But then every move either adds to your position (competitive advantage) or subtracts from it. These little decisions (resulting in a better pawn structure, a more secure king, a centrally positioned knight, and so on) that you make with every move accumulate into victory.
Investing is not that much different, especially in today’s world where access to information has flattened. A mutual fund that manages $100 billion may spend $100 million on research, but that $100 million doesn’t buy any more than what a patient value investor can glean by reading financial statements.
I am not talking about Warren Buffett either, who doesn’t even have a PC in his office. Ted Weschler and Todd Combs (Warren Buffett’s right-hand men) achieved phenomenal investment success without a fancy research department by simply reading carefully and following our Six Commandments.
The key to succeeding in this irrational world is to actively ingrain each one of these principles into your investment operating system, improving your process just a little on a daily basis, and then success will follow.
Finally, this would not be a worthy chapter if I did not contradict myself, just a little. Investing is also unlike chess. Investing affords us a luxury that few people appreciate: You can choose your own opponent. In chess tournaments, you don’t get to choose your opponent. Tournament organizers match you to someone with an equal rating; then as you win, you are progressively matched against better opponents.
In investing, you are the “tournament organizer.” You get to walk into the room and, instead of choosing the geekiest opponent – the dude with thick glasses who hasn’t been on a date in years and has only thought and dreamt about chess – you can go for the muscular guy who spends five hours a day in the gym, and only joined the tournament because he lost a bet.
Money doesn’t know how you made it. A hundred dollars made by solving easy problems (buying stocks where both your IQ and EQ were at their highest) buys as much as a hundred dollars that caused you to lose your hair. In investing, you don’t have to solve the problems that everyone else is solving. There are thousands of stocks out there, and your portfolio needs only a few dozen.
Markets: Another losing week for Wall Street’s three main indexes, and the fifth down week in a row for the Dow. Despite ticking up yesterday, oil prices have actually fallen over the last five days thanks to assurances that producers could plug the supply gap left by Russia.
Ukraine: As Russian forces expanded their assault on new cities in Ukraine, President Biden once again ruled out deploying US troops to the country. “A direct confrontation between NATO and Russia is World War III,” he said.
Stress: More than 80% of Americans said that the invasion of Ukraine and inflation are significant sources of stress, according to a new survey from the American Psychological Association. That share is higher than for any other issue asked about since the survey began in 2007. Meanwhile, US consumer confidence fell to its lowest level in almost 11 years in early March.
MARKETS: The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 653.61 points, or 2%, to end at 33,286.25.
The S&P 500 gained 2.6%, or 107.18 points, finishing at 4,277.88, its best daily percentage gain since June 5, 2020, according to Dow Jones Market Data.
The NASDAQ Composite Index advanced 3.6%, or 459.99 points, closing at 13,255.55, its best daily percentage gain since March 9, 2021.
The S&P 500 had dropped nearly 5% over the last four sessions.
LABOR DEPARTMENT: Will issue its inflation report, which economists expect will show that prices for U.S. consumers leapt 7.9% in February compared with a year ago, according to data provided by FactSet. That would be the biggest gain in four decades. Consumer prices jumped 7.5% in January from a year earlier. Shortages of supplies and workers, heavy doses of federal aid, ultra-low interest rates and robust consumer spending combined to send inflation accelerating in the past year.
Physician and all investors are often overloaded with information regarding this debate, and many advisors differ in the conclusion of which strategy is best.
Stock Picking
Stock picking is typically a waist of time and few investors or advisors demonstrate the constant ability in picking winning stocks. Timing the market also becomes difficult and typically has negative effects in a portfolio. Investors will also find that they will usually have very little luck finding money mangers that can consistently out perform the market. Investors over a long period of investing time horizon would benefit from passive investing vs. active trading, with some exceptions.
Active Investors
Active investors spend time analyzing stocks or mutual funds based on a mismatch of the price relative to its value. In an efficient market, there is little or no mismatch between the current price and the true value of the investment. Also, real cost and expenses of active management are rarely calculated; some consider the stock market a zero sum game, if the total market returns eleven percent then the investors must deduct the cost of the transaction, which would lower their return relative to the market.
Mutual Fund Performance
For example, Mark Carhart’s comprehensive study of 1,892 mutual funds title “On Persistence in Mutual Fund Performance” showed that on average mutual fund manager under performs by 1.8% to their relative index. In addition, William Sharpe Nobel laureate article “The Arithmetic of Active Management” stated that after cost, the return of active management dollars would be less than passive dollars.
Market Timing
Timing of markets is also very difficult. Timing the market can be defined by moving your asset from risky to non risky assets before negative events happen. The Random Walk Theory basically states that there are no patterns in the stock market prices. Basically, information moves the markets and information is random, so logic would suggest that timing the markets effectively is futile. Many reports demonstrate this effect, for example, a report form Javier Estrada, a finance professor at IESE Business School in Barcelona, Spain. He studied the DJIA form 1900-2008 and concluded that if you subtracted the ten best days from the market two thirds of the cumulative gains would disappear (10/29694 or .03%), almost impossible to predict even by the most astute investors. Much more extensive research showing that market timing does not work, Wei Jiang paper “A Nonparametric Test of Market Timing” concluded that timing ability on average is negative. There are countless of studies showing that there is no evidence that timing the markets can produce superior returns.
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Investing Difficulties Continue
To make thing even more difficult, investors that seek profession help cannot guarantee that the active managers they hire can consistently over long period of time outperform their benchmarks. Obviously, it is evident that past performance is no indication of future results as advertised by all financial institution, and most active managers who outperform their bench market do not do consistently over long periods of time. John Boggle’s comprehensive study in 1992 of the Forbes Honor Roll title “Selecting Equity Mutual Funds” concluded that after commissions loads were taken into account the honor roll under performed the market between 1974 and 1990 by a difference of 193.75% cumulative.
Of Professor Burton Malkiel
Furthermore, investors over long periods of time will find that stock picking, timing the market and selecting active managers do not produce superior returns. John Stossel of ABC’s 20/20 interview Professor Burton Malkiel of Princeton University and stated in the interview that “All the information an analyst can learn about a company, from balance sheets to marketing material, is already built into the stock price, because all of the other thousands of analysts have the same information. What they don’t have is the knowledge that will move the stock, knowledge such as a news event, which is unpredictable and impossible to forecast.”
Assessment
Physicians and all investors may be better off concentrating on asset allocation, picking low cost investment, deciding on tactical or strategic rebalancing and implementing models like the three factor model as pioneered by Professor Eugene Fama and Professor Kenneth French in lieu active management.
Conclusion
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Stocks fell and oil prices eased back after another bumpy day of trading on Wall Street as markets remained anxious about the broader impact of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.
Okta shares were down 8.06% while Snowflake plummeted 15.37%.
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INTEL: Intel stock (NASDAQ: INTC) fell 2.5% after Morgan Stanley and Bank of America Securities cut their targets to $47, according to StreetInsider. The stock fell to a low of $47.62, not far from its 52-week low of $43.63. Morgan Stanley (NYSE:MS) analyst Joseph Moore also downgraded the stock to underweight from equal weight while BofA’s Vivek Arya maintained his under perform rating.
INDEXES: Major indexes veered up and down for much of the day before a late-day slide pushed them into the red. The S&P 500 shed a 0.7% gain to close 0.5% lower, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 0.3%. The NASDAQ composite fell 1.6%, weighed down by technology stocks, which accounted for a big share of the market’s decline.
The Dow is down 0.9% for the week, on track for its fourth negative week in a row. The S&P 500 is down about 0.5% for the week, while the NASDAQ Composite is down more than 1%.
BUYBACKS: In the third quarter of 2021, Apple, Inc. (NASDAQ: AAPL) led all S&P 500 companies with $20.4 billion in buybacks. Alphabet, Inc. (NASDAQ: GOOG) (NASDAQ: GOOGL) was a distant second with $15 billion in buybacks, followed by Meta Platforms Inc (NASDAQ: FB) with $12.6 billion.
Over the last decade, no company has come close to Apple in the buyback department. Apple has bought back $487.6 billion in stock since 2012. Microsoft Corporation (NASDAQ: MSFT) is a very distant second with $147.1 billion in buybacks, followed by JPMorgan Chase & Co (NYSE: JPM) with $146.2 billion.
Why Buybacks Matter: It should come as no surprise to investors that all three of the stocks that have been most aggressive in buying back shares over the last 10 years have outperformed the SPDR S&P 500 ETF (NYSE: SPY) total return by a wide margin in that period.
BONDS: Bond yields were mostly steady. The yield on the 10-year Treasury slipped to 1.85% from 1.86% late Wednesday.
Economy: Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell told Congress that “it’s too soon to say” how the war in Ukraine will affect the central bank’s plans, but for now it’s not enough to derail the FOMC from hiking interest rates later this month.
Markets: Stocks rose across the board with strong corporate fundamentals outshining geopolitical worries…at least for a day. Intel had a strong showing after its CEO got a shout-out in the State of the Union address (to be fair, we have no idea if those two things are related).
Microsoft: Microsoft Corp.’s stock dropped 2.6% on Wednesday to close at a seven-month low of $280.07. On Thursday, the software giant’s stock opened down 2.8% at $272.51, hit an intra-day low of $271.52, then bounced 8.5% off that low to close up 5.1% on the day at $294.59. The difference between Microsoft’s bullish engulfing and that of Twitter and Meta is that the downtrend has lasted only three months, since the stock closed at a record $343.11 on November. 19th. On Friday, the stock edged up 0.9% to $297.31.
Salesforce: Shares of Saleforce.com Inc. sank 2.4% on Wednesday to close at a 19-month low of $190.54, or 38.5% below its Nov. 8, 2021 record close of $309.96. Then on Thursday, it opened down 3.0% at $184.74, but bounced sharply to close up 7.2% at $204.29. The customer relationship management software company’s stock rose another 1.9% on Friday to $208.09, but remained the worst performer of the Dow Jones Industrial Average’s 30 components over the past three months with a loss of 26.8%.
AMAZON: The stock traded down roughly 9% across 2021and it’s down roughly 19% from the high that it hit last year. Lapping incredible, pandemic-driven performance, Amazon is facing some tough growth comparisons. Massive technology and infrastructure investments are also putting some pressure on earnings in the near term, but the business remains excellently positioned to win the future, and it will almost certainly be one of the most influential companies of the next decade [maybe]?
MARKETS: The S&P 500 fell into a correction for the first time in two years, joining the NASDAQ Composite, as Russia sent troops into pro-Russian regions in Ukraine. The S&P 500 index ended down 1% at 4,304.76, below the correction level at 4,316.91, which would represent a 10% drop from its January 3rd record close. A correction is commonly defined by market technicians as a fall of at least 10% (but not greater than 20%) from a recent peak. The last time the S&P 500 entered a correction was February 27th 2020, when the market was being whipsawed by fears about the outbreak of the COVID pandemic.
And, this bearish market isn’t sparing 2021 winners like Home Depot, which fell the most in nearly two years after supply-chain bottlenecks squeezed its margins. HD was the Dow’s biggest gainer last year.
IRS: According to a news release issued by the IRS, taxpayers now have the option to verify their identities during live, virtual interviews with agents. The agency stresses that no bio-metric data will be required for those interviews.
However, taxpayers once again have the option to verify their identity using ID.me’s facial recognition services. Addressing privacy concerns, the IRS says new requirements are in place to ensure that images provided will be deleted upon verification. That would apply to any new IRS accounts created and those where selfies have already been collected.
Markets: The domestic markets were closed yesterday as stocks around the world tumbled.
Crypto: Bitcoin was trading at $36,649 at 2:30 a.m. ET, falling nearly 6.5% in the last 24 hours, according to data from CoinDesk. The world’s most valuable cryptocurrency fell below $40,000 over the weekend, and has continued to slide as the Ukraine crisis intensifies. The currency has lost almost half its value since its November high of $68,990 due to geopolitical tensions, the prospect of interest rate hikes by the US Federal Reserve and curbs by some major economies on digital assets. Bitcoin’s peers have also been faring poorly. Ethereum, the world’s second most valuable cryptocurrency, fell over 8% in the last 24 hours and was trading at $2,520.
Putin: Russian President Vladimir Putin dramatically escalated the Ukrainian conflict. He recognized two separatist regions in eastern Ukraine as independent and ordered Russian troops to enter those areas, which may provide the pretext for an invasion of other parts of the country. Western leaders condemned the move as a violation of international law and the US said it will impose sanctions on those regions.
Capital markets require confidence that all market participants have fair access to the same relevant information about a company and its prospects. Laws governing the trading of securities have been in existence since stocks were first traded. It seems as if each piece of legislation, from the Securities and Exchange Act of the 1930’s through to the 2002 Sarbanes-Oxley Law fought the prior corruption as successfully as preparing an army to fight the last war.
Curiously, the issue of insider trading by members of Congress is not a partisan issue. If behavior is any indication, certain Republicans and Democrats are fond of having the ability to profit from access to material, nonpublic information. Others of both parties are introducing legislation to block illegal insider trading.
Congress has passed laws that prohibit people with insider knowledge from trading on non-public information, and from sharing that non-public information with others who may trade stocks based on that information. The former is known as “illegal insider trading” and the latter as “tipping.” There exists legal insider trading, which is bound by rules of disclosure and third-party decision makers, but we will leave that for another day. Illegal insider trading is enforced through Federal Agencies including the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), Internal Revenue Service (IRS) and the Department of Justice (DOJ), as well as by regulations on major stock exchanges such as the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) and National Association of Securities Dealers Automated Quotation Systems (NASDAQ).
While there is universal agreement that executives, board members, employees and others with access to non-public information may not use that information to trade stocks, members of Congress and their staffs face few practical barriers. And in more recent months, members of the Federal Reserve and their staffs have made questionable, if not downright suspicious trades of stocks.
History is littered with cases of both average citizens and celebrities like Martha Stewart being prosecuted for insider trading. Stewart was ultimately prosecuted and jailed for obstruction after denying insider knowledge.
There are members of both the US Senate and US House of Representatives who want to stop illegal insider trading by their peers. For example, in 2012, President Barack Obama signed the Stop Trading on Congressional Knowledge (STOCK) Act to prevent insider trading by members of Congress and Congressional Staff. However, there have been no prosecutions under this statute to date. The reason is that the “Speech and Debate” clause prohibits questioning an elected Senator or Congressional Representative.
Moreover, much of the disclosure of material, non-public information that would establish a foundation for illegal insider trading occurs outside the public eye. Members of Congress cannot act on information obtained from companies themselves. The difficulty arises in proving that a member of Congress or Congressional staff knew of material, non-public information acquired in a confidential congressional meeting. Let me rephrase that. There is no way of knowing what transpired in the confidential committee meeting so there is no provable path to a stock trade benefiting the member of Congress or their staff.
Suppose two publicly traded defense contractors were bidding on a new weapons system. In a confidential committee, a Department of Defense (DOD) recommendation to accept the bid of company A versus Company B was made and endorsed by the committee. At that point, everyone with access to the non-public information about the weapons system bid would know that it would be good for the stock of Company A and bad for the stock of Company B.
Take this a step further. Company A and Company B are notified about the confidential decision and advised to keep this material, non-public information protected. At this point, if any executive, board member or employee with that knowledge traded in the stock of Company A or Company B they would be subject to prosecution, including fines and imprisonment. Also, if any person at the company provided that material, non-public information to another person, including a member of Congress, that action would be subject to investigation and potential prosecution.
Now suppose a Senator, Congressional Representative or staff member, after receiving the news of the weapons system award went to their broker, computer or telephone and bought stock in Company A while selling (or shorting in another way) Company B. Or perhaps communicated to a friend or family member on a trade “suggestion.” Relaying or exploiting information – material, non-public information — behavior that would land any other person in an investigation and make them subject to prosecution, cannot be practically pursued because there is no way to use the committee deliberations as evidence.
When Senators Richard Burr (R-NC), Kelly Loeffler (R-GA) and Diane Feinstein (D-CA) were accused of insider trading, instead of being subjected to investigation and potential prosecution through the SEC, IRS, or DOJ, their actions instead were reviewed by the Senate Ethics Committee. The Senate Ethics Committee, made up of other US Senators, found no wrongdoing. Let me rephrase that – other US Senators, who might benefit themselves from insider trading – decided to give suspicious behavior a pass. Even if the conduct of the Senators was on the up-and-up, the optics do not inspire confidence.
The US Senate does not have a monopoly on suspicious trading. For example, Congresswoman Lois Frankel (D-FL), was accused of trading stocks of companies in the fossil fuel industry while a sitting on a Congressional subcommittee that oversees funding for the Department of Energy.
Legislation to Block Insider Trading by Congress and the Federal Reserve
US Senators and Congressional Representatives have made proposals to improve public perception of their ranks with more practical solutions and stiffer penalties. Pre-eminent among the reformers is Senator Elizabeth Warren (D-MA), a person with a strong background in financial matters. Senator Warren appears to be the leading voice in calling for members of the Federal Reserve and their staffs to also be subject to laws prohibiting illegal insider trading and tipping. These restrictions are long overdue, as statements by the Fed has caused wild gyrations in the prices of securities. Senator Warren’s ideas are recommended reading on her web site at
. Enter “Insider Trading” on the search bar of the Senator’s web site for 61 references.
Senators Jeff Merkley (D-OR) and Sherrod Brown (D-OH) have offered the “Ban Conflicted Trading Act.” Under the legislation, elected persons and their staffs would be required to either sell or freeze their stock holdings, or put them in a blind trust. Introduced in 2018, the legislation has stalled. Last winter, Representative Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D-NY) and others have indicated they would introduce the same legislation in the House.
Earlier this month, Senators Jon Ossoff (D-GA) and Mark Kelly (D-AZ) introduced the Ban Congressional Stock Trading Act. If it becomes law, every member of Congress—as well as their spouses and dependent children—would be required to place their stock portfolios into a blind trust. One benefit of an outright ban or blind trusts would mean that clerical matters would no longer be a concern of those elected. Kelly himself, according to news reports, did not make a timely disclosure about a stock option exercise.
Senator Josh Hawley (R-MO) announced he will introduce the Banning Insider Trading in Congress Act. Wryly pointing out that politicians manage to outperform the stock market year after year, Hawley’s bill would prohibit members of Congress and their spouses from buying and trading individual stocks. Those who violate it would have to disgorge their profits.
Congress: Keep it simple and fix this
The singular, clear way to avoid abuses of insider information is to ban the trade of individual stocks and industry-specific Exchange Traded Funds (ETF) by members of Congress, Congressional staffs, members of the Federal Reserve and their staffs. Double blind trusts (where neither the owner or trustee knows identity of the other) would be an acceptable form of investing. Finally, add stronger criminal penalties for tipping insider information.
This is one of the few things that seem to enjoy bipartisan support, and would seemingly be welcomed by nonpartisans and those on the political poles as well.
Of course, like everything political, proposals of these types do not enjoy absolute, clear-cut support. As House Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-CA) said about her opposition to such restrictions “We are a free market economy,” Pelosi, purported to be one of the 25 wealthiest members of Congress, continued, “They (Congress) should be able to participate in that.” Pelosi’s recent financial disclosure is said to have 48 transactions made by her family valued at a total of some $50 million so she is sympathetic to serving in Congress and participating in trading.
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