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Mature Company Stocks Are Not Bonds

Dividends bring tangible and intangible benefits

vitaly

By Vitaliy Katsenelson CFA

 

You can also listen to the article here, or by clicking on the buttons below:

Like many professional investors, I love companies that pay dividends. Dividends bring tangible and intangible benefits: Over the last hundred years, half of total stock returns came from dividends.

In a world where earnings often represent the creative output of CFOs’ imaginations, dividends are paid out of cash flows, and thus are proof that a company’s earnings are real.

Finally, a company that pays out a significant dividend has to have much greater discipline in managing the business, because a significant dividend creates another cash cost, so management has less cash to burn in empire-building acquisitions.

Mature Company Stocks Are Not Bonds

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[PHYSICIAN FOCUSED FINANCIAL PLANNING AND RISK MANAGEMENT COMPANION TEXTBOOK SET]

Comprehensive Financial Planning Strategies for Doctors and Advisors: Best Practices from Leading Consultants and Certified Medical Planners™

Risk Management, Liability Insurance, and Asset Protection Strategies for Doctors and Advisors: Best Practices from Leading Consultants and Certified Medical Planners™

Fifty Shades of Warren Buffet -OR- New Year in Omaha

A POD-Cast

By Vitaliy Katsenelson CFA

50 Shades of Warren Buffet or Next Year In Omaha

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Risk Management, Liability Insurance, and Asset Protection Strategies for Doctors and Advisors: Best Practices from Leading Consultants and Certified Medical Planners™8Comprehensive Financial Planning Strategies for Doctors and Advisors: Best Practices from Leading Consultants and Certified Medical Planners™

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On Stock Investing Fear!

vitaly

By Vitaliy Katsenelson CFA

Stock Investors: You Have Nothing to Fear but Fear Itself

    

This article is Part 1 of a 3-part series discussing how investors can avoid acting irrationally. Read Part 2 and Part 3.

Risk Management, Liability Insurance, and Asset Protection Strategies for Doctors and Advisors: Best Practices from Leading Consultants and Certified Medical Planners™8Comprehensive Financial Planning Strategies for Doctors and Advisors: Best Practices from Leading Consultants and Certified Medical Planners™

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Book Dr. David Edward Marcinko CMP®, MBA, MBBS for your Next Medical, Pharma or Financial Services Seminar or Personal and Corporate Coaching Sessions 

Dr. Dave Marcinko enjoys personal coaching and public speaking and gives as many talks each year as possible, at a variety of medical society and financial services conferences around the country and world.

These have included lectures and visiting professorships at major academic centers, keynote lectures for hospitals, economic seminars and health systems, keynote lectures at city and statewide financial coalitions, and annual keynote lectures for a variety of internal yearly meetings.

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[PHYSICIAN FOCUSED FINANCIAL PLANNING AND RISK MANAGEMENT COMPANION TEXTBOOK SET]

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[Foreword Dr. Phillips MD JD MBA LLM] *** [Foreword Dr. Nash MD MBA FACP]

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Don’t let Population Health Demographic Trends Guide “Investment” Decisions

A Different Perspective on Population Health

By Dr. David Edward Marcinko MBA CMP®
http://www.CertifiedMedicalPlanner.org

Definition

Population health has been defined as “the health outcomes of a group of individuals, including the distribution of such outcomes within the group”. It is an approach to health that aims to improve the health of an entire human population or cohort. http://www.HealthDictionarySeries.org

History

In fact, the nominal “father of population health” is colleague and Dean David B. Nash MD MBA of Jefferson Medical School in Philadelphia. And, although I attended Temple University down the street, David still wrote the Foreword to my textbook years later; Financial Management Strategies for Hospitals and Healthcare Organizations [Tools, Techniques, Checklists and Case Studies].

Factors

Now age, income, location, race, gender  and education are just a few characteristics that differentiate the world’s population. These are called ”disparities” and they have a major impact on people’s lives; especially their healthcare. And, I’ve written about them before.  Perform a ME-P “search” for more.

So, it’s only natural that we’re keeping an eye on two major demographic trends: aging baby boomers and maturing Millennials [1982-2002 approximately].

Why it’s important

The impact of large population shifts propagate throughout an economy benefitting certain sectors more than others and influencing a country’s growth prospects; tantalizing investing ideas?

Example:

For example, as baby boomers retire, we’ll likely see higher spending on health care, but less on education and raising children. Likewise, tech-savvy Millennials will likely prioritize consumption on experiences over cars and houses [leading economic indicator].

So, can we profit from these trends?

Assessment

Well maybe – maybe not! Overall economic prospects may not be completely affected by these trends. Spending habits on combined goods and services will shift, rather than rise or decline.

So, be careful. What matters most for your investment success is your demographics and investing according to your personal circumstances and goals [paradox-of-thrift].

Conclusion

Your thoughts and comments on this ME-P are appreciated. Feel free to review our top-left column, and top-right sidebar materials, links, URLs and related websites, too. Then, subscribe to the ME-P. It is fast, free and secure.

Speaker: If you need a moderator or speaker for an upcoming event, Dr. David E. Marcinko; MBA – Publisher-in-Chief of the Medical Executive-Post – is available for seminar or speaking engagements. https://medicalexecutivepost.com/dr-david-marcinkos-bookings/

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Appreciating Post Cyber Monday Stock Market Volatility

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Living with Ambiguity [Is it Friend or Foe?]

By Robert Klosterman CFP® http://www.whiteoakswealth.com/

The stock market was down a bit last month and up last week, and then down today; back and forth, rising and falling and rising again the last few years, etc, etc.

Now: 23 557 DJIA

Whipsaw is the word I’ve heard to describe it lately. And, without a doubt, the question that gets asked the most is “How do you like this volatility?”

My reply, without exception, is “I LOVE volatility. I do prefer upside volatility to downside though”. The response is a smile or an outright laugh. Of course, few physicians or laymen I have ever met get worried about upside price movements in investing.

Third Quarter 2017

The third quarter of 2017 – post election results – clearly experienced both major up and downside volatility with the recent emphasis on the upside. Investors that fully invested in equities saw their portfolios rise in the positive and record-breaking direction.

Europe

The market pundits have a daily hero to pin the market movements on. Europe, Syria, Russia and Putin, Turkey, Greece, US Congress stalemates and other forces like the death of Fidel Castro are some of the most recent “good guys” that have given rise to Mr. Market’s positivity. Did we mention  Donald Trump?

How Long?

The bigger question is how long will these issues persist? Established societies, often described as western economies, have some significant headwinds facing them for the next few years: high debt, mounting costs of social insurance programs, and the likelihood of higher taxes to solve the problems.

There is nothing new or unique about that last sentence. There seems to be a wide consensus on those points and coupled with the record low interest rates, investors seem to have few traditional options to consider. It appears likely that it will take a few years to resolve these issues and provide a platform for above average growth.

Strategies

There are a number of strategies that can utilize volatility including Long-Short, Mean Reversion, Managed Futures and Market Neutral, etc [previously noted on this ME-P]. These provide returns in a secular bear market that may continue for a few more years.

Link: https://medicalexecutivepost.com/2007/11/28/what-is-a-market-neutral-fund/

It’s also important to recognize that while the US and Western Europe maybe having to face the headwinds there are economies in parts of the world that will likely experience above average growth rates for the next few years. For the most part, these emerging markets include Brazil, Russia, India and China (BRIC). A strong dollar not-withstanding.

BRIC Analogs to the USA

In the 1870‘s, the US was an emerging market the same way the BRIC economies are today’s emerging markets; developmentally analogous. Whereas the US and Western Europe face many headwinds, some of these emerging economies actually have wind in their backs. Trade surplus, demographics, low debt and low cost of Government are some of the key advantages. These countries’ standard of living is changing to the positive, and they have a large percentage of their population that can move up and be a purchaser of goods and services where previously they could not.

Income Generation

Another important focus will be on income generation. For many years the income portion of an investment in equities was half or more of its return. Only in recent years has the largest portion come from capital gains. We are likely “back to the old days” in order to achieve returns that will offset inflation and meet longer-term investment goals

Opportunities exist in a variety of areas, including real estate, Mortgage Backed Securities, Private Equity and others to have more focus on income as a dominant portion of the total return.

Assessment

Volatility is going to be with us and it would be wonderful to have the confidence needed to say the emphasis would be on upside volatility, but that is not the case right now. The optimum strategies are to align portfolios with the world we live in today.

IOW: Doctors, medical professionals and all investors must learn to “live with ambiguity.”

About the Author

Robert J. Klosterman® has been listed as one of the Top 250 Financial Advisors in the United States by Worth Magazine. He has also been recognized as one of the top 150 Financial Advisors by Mutual Fund Magazine, Medical Economics and Bloomberg’s Wealth Manager Magazine. Bob’s published quotes appear frequently in dozen’s of local and national publications, including USA Today, the New York Times, Minneapolis Star Tribune, CFP Today, Barron’s and Fortune.

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Conclusion

Your thoughts and comments on this ME-P are appreciated. Feel free to review our top-left column, and top-right sidebar materials, links, URLs and related websites, too. Then, subscribe to the ME-P. It is fast, free and secure.

Speaker: If you need a moderator or speaker for an upcoming event, Dr. David E. Marcinko; MBA – Publisher-in-Chief of the Medical Executive-Post – is available for seminar or speaking engagements. Contact: MarcinkoAdvisors@msn.com

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What I Didn’t Know Then?

About Money

[By Rick Kahler MS CFP®]

Fifty years ago I scraped together $100 that I earned moving lawns and invested in my first stocks. I had heard a person could make a lot of money owning stocks. The ones I bought were all very small regional companies that I selected with the help of a stock broker who said they had great promise. They all eventually went out of business.

The next time I had some money to invest, at age 19, I bought a house. My $1,000 down payment grew into $4,000 in a couple of years. I took that money and invested it into the futures market. Within days it was gone.

It probably isn’t a surprise that, after these painful lessons, I put my investable dollars into buying real estate. It took me 10 years to even consider investing money into the stock market.

While I did okay investing in real estate, my foray into more liquid investments could have been much less painful had I known then what I know now.

Here’s what I finally learned: buying individual stocks and trying to beat the market is a game very, very, very few people do well at.

Had I taken that first $100 and purchased an index fund that invested in the 500 largest companies in the US (the S&P 500), 50 years later my $100 would have grown to $12,600, which is 10.2% a year. But I didn’t know that then.

My kids, however, are a little smarter. Six years ago they invested around $100 each into the Vanguard Dividend Appreciation Fund that owns just over 100 large company stocks. Their $100 is now worth around $300, which is a little over 20% a year. If that return would continue, at the 50-year anniversary of their original $100 investment they would each have just over $920,000. While I will guarantee you the 20% returns will not continue, they are well on their way to doing far better with their initial $100 investments than I did with mine.

Which leads me to wonder if the growth of their stock investments is likely to equal the growth of the past 50 years. According to Jonathon Clements of HumbleDollar.com, in a July 1, 2017 blog post , repeating the returns of the past is probably unlikely.

First he contends that because of “the aging of America and the accompanying slow growth in the workforce, the current century’s real economic growth has been sluggish, averaging 1.9% a year over the past 17 calendar years. That’s likely to continue.”

If you take real economic growth of 2%, add inflation of 2%, and add the average 2% dividend yield of stocks, you are looking at a 6% long-term return. Based on Clements’s math, that means $100 will grow to $1,840 in 50 years. That’s a fraction of the $12,600 accumulation of the past 50 years.

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Clements notes the focus here is on just US stocks, suggesting the outlook for international stocks is much brighter. Other asset classes that could also do well are real estate and commodities.

Assessment

he bottom line is often the same: placing your bets on one stock, one asset class, or one country carries with it a high amount of risk. Most long-term investors need to seriously consider diversifying their nest egg globally in several asset classes. While such investors will never hit a home run, they will also never have to forfeit the game.

After my early attempts at investing, it took me a long time to learn what I didn’t know then. My hope is that writing about my mistakes can help others learn sooner what I do know now. 

Conclusion

Your thoughts and comments on this ME-P are appreciated. Feel free to review our top-left column, and top-right sidebar materials, links, urls and related websites, too. Then, subscribe to the ME-P. It is fast, free and secure.

Speaker: If you need a moderator or speaker for an upcoming event, Dr. David E. Marcinko; MBA – Publisher-in-Chief of the Medical Executive-Post – is available for seminar or speaking engagements. Contact: marcinkoadvisors@msn.com

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