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DAILY UPDATE: Equities, Treasuries, Crude Oil and BoA

Posted on October 18, 2022 by The D.E.A. ROGUE WARRIOR

THE ECONOMY & RECESSION

By Staff Reporters

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U.S. equities rose noticeably in the first trading session of the week following the new U.K. finance minister’s announcement that the government would abandon nearly all its tax cut plans. The moves came amid hopes of some stabilization in the global bond and currency markets which have seen increased volatility in the wake of the initial proposal.

Treasury yields traded mixed, while the U.S. dollar fell amid strength in both the British pound and the euro.

Crude oil prices nudged lower, and gold traded slightly higher.

Bank of America shares rose as the company eclipsed quarterly expectations on a jump in net interest income, while Q3 earnings season is set to kick into a higher gear this week.

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Economy: This party may be busted by the cops. A US recession is a 100% certainty within the next 12 months, according to Bloomberg’s economic model.

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FINANCE: https://www.routledge.com/Comprehensive-Financial-Planning-Strategies-for-Doctors-and-Advisors-Best/Marcinko-Hetico/p/book/9781482240283

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DAILY UPDATE: Domestic Stocks, Treasuries, the Dollar, Oil, Jobs, Asian and European Stocks

Posted on October 14, 2022 by The D.E.A. ROGUE WARRIOR

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By Staff Reporters

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Stocks initially fell, and then soared.

Treasury yields rose, particularly on the short end of the curve.

The U.S. dollar declined as the British pound rallied for a second day amid speculation that the U.K. government may reverse course on its tax cut plan.

Crude oil prices reversed higher, and gold prices were lower.

Jobless claims accelerated more than expected.

Asian stocks moved broadly lower amid the inflation uneasiness, while European stocks ended the day in the green as the markets grappled with the potential tax-cut U-turn out of the U.K.

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UPDATE: Equities, Bonds, Oil, the Dollar and Asian Markets

Posted on October 12, 2022 by The D.E.A. ROGUE WARRIOR

By Staff Reporters

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U.S. equities finished mixed after turning to the downside following news that the Bank of England set a three-day deadline to end its bond buying initiative and for pension funds within the U.K. to rebalance. Action was choppy most of the day, as investors awaited tomorrow’s first look at the highly anticipated September inflation data.

Now, according to the Schwab Center for Financial Research, the markets appeared to be on edge at the prospect of further monetary policy tightening, which could be enhanced by the inflation reports. In light economic news, small business optimism unexpectedly increased but remained below the 48-year average for a ninth-consecutive month.

On the equity front, Leggett & Platt lowered its full-year guidance, KLA Corporation ceased some of its business with China-based customers following export restrictions, while a proposal from the Labor Department is pressuring ride-hailing and food-delivery companies.
Treasury yields were mixed after a return to action following yesterday’s holiday.

The U.S. dollar finished modestly higher in its own whipsaw session, crude oil prices fell, and gold was also lower.

Asian markets were mostly lower following new export rules on semiconductor chips from the U.S., while European stocks were lower as the Bank of England announced further intervention to try to ensure financial stability.

The global markets continue to grapple with the possibility of future global rate hikes as inflationary concerns remain.

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BUSINESS OF MEDICINE: https://www.routledge.com/Comprehensive-Financial-Planning-Strategies-for-Doctors-and-Advisors-Best/Marcinko-Hetico/p/book/9781482240283

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UPDATE: Stocks Closed Lower Amid September’s Key Labor Report

Posted on October 8, 2022 by The D.E.A. ROGUE WARRIOR

By Staff Reporters

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U.S. stocks traded noticeably lower on the heels of the September nonfarm payroll report, but was still able to post weekly gains following the strong rebound on Monday and Tuesday. The labor data showed job growth rose more than predicted, while the unemployment rate unexpectedly declined, and the labor force participation rate surprisingly dipped. The report seemed to dampen recently increased optimism that the Fed could decelerate its aggressive monetary policy tightening campaign.

In other economic news, wholesale inventories were unrevised at a solid gain, and data on consumer credit showed consumer borrowing was well above expectations.

Treasury yields rose following the labor report, and the U.S. dollar continued to rebound from a stumble earlier in the week.

Crude oil prices climbed following the decision from OPEC+ to cut oil production and gold traded lower.

Asian stocks finished out the week broadly lower, and European stocks trimmed a weekly gain as volatility remained in the currency and bond markets across the globe.

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UPDATE: Domestic Stocks and Commodities

Posted on September 13, 2022 by The D.E.A. ROGUE WARRIOR

By Staff Reporters

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U.S. stocks kicked the week off higher as Wall Street inched closer to highly-anticipated inflation data this week. The S&P 500 climbed 1%, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average jumped 230 points, or 0.7%. The technology-heavy NASDAQ Composite led the way up, soaring 1.3%. The moves build on a recent rebound rally that helped all three major averages log weekly gains for the first time in three weeks on Friday. The S&P 500 and NASDAQ each rose more than 4% during over the holiday-shortened week, while the Dow rose 3.2%.

In commodities, oil prices edged higher, extending a streak of recent back-and-forth action. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) futures rose about 1.3% to $87.91 per barrel and Brent crude oil advanced 1.4% to $94.13 per barrel.

All eyes are on the August Consumer Price Index (CPI) due out before markets open later today.

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UPDATE: Daily and Weekly Domestic Stock-Market Round-Up, Commodities and the Euro Zone

Posted on September 10, 2022 by The D.E.A. ROGUE WARRIOR

By Staff Reporters

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For Friday, the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 377.19 points, or 1.19%, to 32,151.71, the S&P 500 gained 61.18 points, or 1.53%, to 4,067.36 and the NASDAQ Composite added 250.18 points, or 2.11%, to 12,112.31. For the week, the Dow advanced 2.7%, the S&P 500 climbed 3.6% and the NASDAQ gained 4.1%. And, U.S. equity funds recorded outflows of $11.5 billion in the week to Wednesday, their largest outflow in 11 weeks, Bank of America Merrill said today. Volume on U.S. exchanges was 9.91 billion shares, compared with the 10.24 billion average for the full session over the last 20 trading days.

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Commodities: In commodity news, oil traded up 3.1% to $86.16, while gold traded up 0.3% at $1,725.40. Silver traded up 1.1% to $18.65 on Friday while copper rose 0.6% to $3.5490.

Euro zone: European shares were higher today. The Eurozone’s STOXX 600 gained 1.57%, London’s FTSE 100 rose 1.38%, while Spain’s IBEX 35 Index rose 1.52%. The German DAX gained 1.39%, French CAC 40 rose 1.5% and Italy’s FTSE MIB Index gained 1.85%. Industrial production in France dropped by 1.6% from a month ago in July versus a revised 1.2% increase in June, while industrial production in Spain gained by 5.3% year-over-year in July.

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UPDATE: Job Openings, Oil and the Stock Slump!

Posted on August 31, 2022 by The D.E.A. ROGUE WARRIOR

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By Staff Reporters

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According to the USBLS, the number of open Job positions ticked up unexpectedly in July, with around 11.2 million jobs available, slightly higher than June’s revised total of 11 million openings, according to the latest Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS). Economists had expected there to be about 10.5 million jobs added, according to estimates from Refinitiv. The June total was revised up by about 300,000 positions.

Oil closed down almost $6 a barrel with global crude benchmark Brent falling beneath key $100 pricing, after a pro-Tehran television station out of London reported that Iran and the United States have reached a deal to revive a nuclear deal that could legitimately put the Islamic Republic’s oil back on the export market.

Stocks fell again on Wall Street, posting their third loss in a row as traders worry that high interest rates are here to stay for a while. The S&P 500 fell 1.1% bringing its loss in the past three days to 5.1%. The Dow Jones Industrial Average and the NASDAQ also fell. Energy companies fell along with sliding crude oil prices. Technology stocks and industrial companies were also weak. The yield on the 10-year Treasury held steady.

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UPDATE: Dollar-Euro Parity, Crude Oil and the Markets

Posted on July 6, 2022 by The D.E.A. ROGUE WARRIOR

By Staff Reporters

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The Euro lost 10% versus the dollar this year and at $1.0238 EUR=EBS is close to the psychologically crucial parity point it last saw in mid-2002. It also hit new seven-year lows versus the Swiss franc and dropped against the sterling and the yen, but few observers are willing to call a bottom yet. Nomura’s analysts cut their euro/dollar target to $0.95 and said parity could be breached as soon as August. Citibank says a move to parity is “inevitable.” However, Nomura said that $0.95 was not that important historically, noting that the euro fell from $1.17 after its creation to $0.82 in October 2002. Extrapolating backwards using its legacy currencies, the euro traded as weak as $0.6444 in February 1985.

On the New York Mercantile Exchange, benchmark U.S. crude oil for August delivery fell $8.93 to $99.50 a barrel, its first dip below $100 since May 11th. Brent crude for September delivery fell $10.73 to $102.70 a barrel.

Finally, the Dow dropped 129.44 points, or 0.4%, to finish at 30,967.82; it had been down more than 700 points at its lows earlier in the session. The S&P 500 gained 6.06 points, or 0.2%, closing at 3,831.39. And, the NASDAQ Composite advanced 194.39 points, or 1.8%, to finish at 11,322.24.

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UPDATE: Inflation, Gasoline & Oil Prices, Online Crypto Trading Firms and Altria

Posted on June 23, 2022 by The D.E.A. ROGUE WARRIOR

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The rate of inflation rose again in May, remaining at 40-year highs, the Office for National Statistics revealed. The rate of Consumer Prices Index [CPI] inflation rose slightly to 9.1 per cent in May from 9 per cent in April, according to the ONS. The increase matches what analysts had expected. And, supply constraints, exacerbated by Russia’s war in Ukraine account for about half of the surge in US inflation, with demand currently making up a third of the increase, according to new research from the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.

US gasoline futures are about 13% below the record high seen earlier this month and pump prices have dropped for more than seven days straight — the biggest run of losses since April — after rising to a fresh peak early last week, as recession concerns grip the market. Oil prices have tumbled toward $100 a barrel as traders fear that sharply higher interest rates would slow down economic growth and lead to demand destruction. The AAA reports that the average price of a gallon of regular gas slipped 6 cents since last week, to $4.955.

U.S. online trading firms specializing in crypto were hit hard after BinanceUS, an arm of the word’s biggest digital currency exchange, eliminated its bitcion spot trading fees. BinanceUS will now allow its users to trade bitcoin, the biggest cryptocurrency, against assets such as the U.S. dollar, tether, and other dollar-backed stablecoins for free, eliminating its prior levy of 0.1% on transaction valued at less than $50,000.00.

Altria’s big tumble—the tobacco company owns a 35% stake in Juul, and a WSJ report suggested the FDA could order Juul to yank its products off the market imminently.

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UPDATE: Cathie Wood, IRS Back-Log, US Single Family Rent and the Markets

Posted on June 22, 2022 by The D.E.A. ROGUE WARRIOR

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Cathie Wood warned that the Federal Reserve could cause a recession if it keeps hiking interest rates. The US central bank is ignoring three indicators that might show inflation easing, according to the Ark Invest CIO. First, aggressive hikes are unnecessary because inflation is already easing. Second, she pointed to the stagnating prices of gold and lumber, which are often seen as leading inflation indicators. “After soaring from $1,350/ounce pre-COVID to a peak of nearly $2,000 [an ounce] during 2020, the gold price has dropped back to $1,840 [an ounce] during the past two years. “The lumber price has dropped more than 50%.” Finally, Wood said fuel prices have likely peaked as Americans increasingly turn to electric vehicles. Surging oil prices have been one of the main drivers of inflation this year, with Brent crude up 48.3% to over $115 a barrel.

The IRS says it is climbing out from under the unprecedented stack of tax returns that piled up after the agency had to scale back its operations and close facilities in 2020 following the onset of the pandemic. The agency announced that by the end of this week it will have cleared all original individual tax returns that were filed in 2021 and that didn’t contain any major mistakes. “Due to issues related to the pandemic and staffing limitations, the IRS began 2022 with a larger than usual inventory of paper tax returns and correspondence filed during 2021,” the IRS said in a statement. “The IRS took a number of steps to address this, and the agency is on track to complete processing of originally filed Form 1040 (individual tax returns without errors) received in 2021 this week.”

Another record for US single-family rents, which jumped 14% year-over-year in April, marking the 13th period of record-breaking annual gains.

Markets: Stocks bounced yesterday after their worst week in two years, led by energy stocks and Big Tech companies. Cypto even rose. Today, investors will be glued to Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s testimony on Capitol Hill. They want to know whether Powell expects to hike interest rates by another 75 basis points next month.

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UPDATE: The Personal Savings Rate, Oil and the Winklevoss Twins

Posted on June 3, 2022 by The D.E.A. ROGUE WARRIOR

By Staff Reporters

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US roaring consumer demand has caused an increase in the price of goods and services, otherwise known as inflation. But with inflation at a 40-year high this year, Americans are finding their monthly income isn’t going as far as it used to. In April, the personal savings rate in the US ticked down to a 14-year low of 4.4%, according to the latest figures from the Commerce Department. That’s half the rate it was in December, and roughly a third of where it was the year before. And, many households are already in negative savings territory, meaning they are increasingly tapping into their savings to cover purchases each month.

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And Oil prices moved higher as a production increase by OPEC+ countries was viewed as potentially too little to offset the absence of Russian supply, while US crude inventories declined sharply. West Texas Intermediate moved 1.249% higher to $116.70, while Brent crude, the international benchmark, jumped about 1% to $117.47

Finally, The Social Network twins are laying off 10% of the workforce at Gemini, the crypto exchange they own. Tyler and Cameron Winklevoss said that the industry has entered a “contraction phase that is settling into a period of stasis”—which is another way of saying that the total value of digital assets has plunged by about $2 trillion from its peak last November.

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UPDATE: The Markets, Terra-Luna, Oil and Personal Wealth

Posted on May 31, 2022 by The D.E.A. ROGUE WARRIOR

By Staff Reporters

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Since the year began, the iconic Dow Jones Industrial Average entered correction territory with a decline of greater than 10%, while the S&P 500 (very briefly, on an intra-day basis) and NASDAQ Composite both pushed into a bear market. The latter has endured a peak-to-trough drop of as much as 31% in six months.

Terra launched a new version of its failed luna cryptocurrency, which plunged to $0. At its height, the old luna — “luna classic” — had a circulating supply of over $40 billion. The revived luna token is already trading on exchanges but its price is crashing.

Oil prices rose to a two-month high over the holiday weekend, while the average cost of a gallon of gas in the US hit a record of $4.62.

Americans say it takes exactly $2.2 million in net worth to be considered “wealthy,” according to a new Charles Schwab study. The figure is up slightly from 2021, when it sat at $1.9 million, but down from a pre-pandemic “wealthy” high of $2.6 million in 2019. The average net worth it takes to be “financially comfortable” sat at $774,000 in 2022 and is up from $624,000 in 2021, but down from a pre-pandemic high of $1.4 million in 2018.

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UPDATE: US Stock Futures, Oil, T-Bonds, Tiger Global & Weekly Economic Events

Posted on May 9, 2022 by The D.E.A. ROGUE WARRIOR

By Staff Reporters

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Last night, the Dow Jones Industrial Average futures lost 191 points, down 0.6%, while the S&P 500 futures declined 0.8% and NASDAQ Composite futures fell 0.9%.

Crude oil futures (West Texas Intermediate) fell 0.2%, to $109.54 a barrel.

TEN Year Bond: 3.128%

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Tiger Global, the hedge fund with the most investments in private billion-dollar startups, is going through one of the worst stretches of any hedge fund in history, falling 44% so far this year and 15% in April alone.

This week’s notable economic events include: On Tuesday, the National Federation of Independent Business releases its Small Business Optimism Index for April. On Wednesday, the Bureau of Labor Statistics reports the consumer price index for April. On Thursday, the BLS releases the producer price index for April, and the Department of Labor reports initial jobless claims for the week ended on May 7. On Friday, the University of Michigan releases its Consumer Sentiment Index for May.

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UPDATE: The Markets and Energy

Posted on April 28, 2022 by The D.E.A. ROGUE WARRIOR

By Staff Reporters

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Markets: The NASDAQ stayed flat at its lowest level this year. Spotify shares sank to a record low. Facebook is having a rough go, but it’s not the only one. Netflix stock plunged nearly 70% this year after hitting a ceiling on subscriber growth. At one point, it was worth more than Disney; now, it’s not even half as valuable. Even Google is googling “ways to make more money.” Its parent company, Alphabet, reported a slowdown in growth last quarter because, like Facebook, YouTube’s also being been dinged by TikTok and Apple’s privacy changes: The video platform’s revenue came in more than $500 million below expectations.

Energy: Russia’s halted oil shipments to Poland and Bulgaria yesterday.

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UPDATE: The Markets and Commodity Prices

Posted on April 19, 2022 by The D.E.A. ROGUE WARRIOR

By Staff Reporters

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Markets: Stocks dipped to start off the week without many market-moving developments. Twitter’s use of a “poison pill” to prevent Elon Musk from taking over the company was a hit with investors, who sent shares soaring yesterday. The company’s stock is up more than 23% since Musk revealed he owned a 9.2% stake.

Commodities: Prices up. Corn hit a nine-year high in part due to the war in Ukraine, while US natural gas prices reached their highest level in 13 years ahead of an unusual April snowstorm hitting the Northeast. Natural gas prices have more than doubled so far this year.

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UPDATE: The CPI, NASDAQ, Gas Prices and Digital Health Investing

Posted on April 12, 2022 by The D.E.A. ROGUE WARRIOR

By Staff Reporters

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Today’s consumer price index [CPI] reading is expected to show that March prices surged 8.4% over last year.

Treasury yields rose and stocks dropped in anticipation of higher interest rates and a cooling economy. The tech-heavy NASDAQ lost more than $1 trillion in market value in just the past five trading sessions.

US average gas prices sank to their lowest level in more than a month, at $4.11 a gallon. The easing is likely a reaction to the White House’s big release of crude reserves and lock-downs in China reducing overall demand for fuel.

US digital health company investment financing experienced a dip in Q1 of 2022, dropping to $6 billion from the $6.7 billion invested in Q1 2021. In addition, the average size of each investment deal dropped from $46 million last year to just shy of $33 million.

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UPDATE: Oil & Energy Prices

Posted on March 31, 2022 by The D.E.A. ROGUE WARRIOR

By Staff Reporters

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West Texas Intermediate crude for May delivery rose $3.58, or 3.4%, to settle at $107.82 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange after posting a loss of 1.6%.
May Brent crude the global benchmark, rose $3.22, or 2.9%, to $113.45 a barrel on ICE Futures Europe, following a 2% loss.
May natural gas rose 5.2% to $5.605 per million British thermal units.
April gasoline rose 3.8% to $3.325 a gallon and April heating oil climbed 2.5% to $3.809 a gallon.

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UPDATE: Free Covid Testing Ends, Stocks Up, Jobless Claims, Oil, Commodities & Lapsus$ are Down

Posted on March 25, 2022 by The D.E.A. ROGUE WARRIOR

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By Staff Reporters

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COVID-19: The White House said it will end the reimbursement program, which was set up in March 2020 under then-President Trump, because it has exhausted its funding. Money from the program went toward paying hospitals and other health care providers for the treatment, testing and vaccination of those without insurance, regardless of immigration status.

STOCKS: US stocks moved higher recovering from Wednesday’s sell-off, after weekly jobless claims fell to their lowest level in 52 years.

JOBS: Jobless claims fell to 187,000 last week, down 28,000 from the previous week and ahead of economist’s estimates of 210,000. Filings hit the lowest level since September 1969, highlighting the underlying strength of a job market that is still recovering from the COVID-19 pandemic.

COMMODITIES: Meanwhile, commodity prices cooled with oil prices falling more than 2%. The drop in oil came on the same day President Joe Biden traveled to Europe to meet with other Western countries regarding the ongoing invasion of Ukraine by Russia, and called for Russia to be removed from G20.

Lapsus$: Cybersecurity experts tracked down the group’s alleged ringleader, a 16 year old, in Oxford, England, who reportedly amassed $14 million from his after-school hacking job. Lapsus$ targeted companies like Microsoft, Nvidia, and Okta.

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UPDATE: US Stocks, Oil, Moscow Stock Exchange and the .GIF

Posted on March 24, 2022 by The D.E.A. ROGUE WARRIOR

By Staff Reporters

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STOCKS: The S&P 500 fell 55 points. The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 447 points and the NASDAQ fell 186 points. The losses were broad, with technology, health care and financial stocks among the biggest weights on the benchmark S&P 500 index. Microsoft fell 1.2% and Abbott Laboratories slid 3.5%. Retailers and communications companies also lost ground.

OIL: Energy stocks rose as crude oil prices climbed more than 4%. Hess rose 2.8%.

MOSCOW: Russia’s central bank has decided to gradually resume trading on the Moscow Exchange in the equity markets after the country’s longest trading halt began on February 24th. Federal loans and bond trading resumed on Monday. Bidding will be held from 10:00 to 11:00 Moscow time in the discrete auction mode, then from 13:00 to 17:00 Moscow time in the usual mode. Short selling on such instruments will be prohibited.

GIF: Stephen Wilhite, the creator of the GIF died at age 74. The Graphics Interchange Format, dates back to the 1980s, when Wilhite was looking for a way to send high-quality graphics in color during the early stages of the internet.

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UPDATE: The Markets, Oil and T-Notes

Posted on March 19, 2022 by The D.E.A. ROGUE WARRIOR

By Staff Reporters

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MARKETS: Stocks rose for a fourth day in a row Friday, closing out their biggest weekly gain since November 2020. The S&P 500 added 1.2%, bringing its weekly gain to 6.2%. The NASDAQ climbed 2.1% and the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 0.8%. Investors have welcomed the long-expected pivot from the Federal Reserve from stimulating the economy to fighting inflation, which began this week with its first interest rate increase since 2018.

OIL: The price of oil remains above $100 a barrel as investors monitor the ongoing Russian invasion of Ukraine.

10 Year Treasury Note: The yield on the 10-year Treasury Note fell to 2.15%.

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WINTER: Today is the last day of winter.

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UPDATE: The Markets, Oil and Mortgage Rates

Posted on March 18, 2022 by The D.E.A. ROGUE WARRIOR

By Staff Reporters

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Markets: Stocks have gone up and to the right for three days running propelled by the Federal Reserve’s determination to curb inflation with a series of rate hikes this year.

CITE: https://www.r2library.com/Resource/Title/082610254

Oil: The big crash in oil prices reversed somewhat and crude jumped again to more than $100 a barrel.

Mortgage Rates: The average rate for a 30-year fixed mortgage topped 4% for the first time since May 2019, a big jump from its record low of 2.65% in January 2021.

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UPDATE: World Stocks, Oil, Microsoft and the FOMC

Posted on March 15, 2022 by The D.E.A. ROGUE WARRIOR

By Staff Reporters

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Domestic: The S&P 500 gave up an early gain and closed 0.7% lower after another choppy day of trading on Wall Street. The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed essentially flat and the NASDAQ composite fell 2%. The pullback came as the yield on the 10-year Treasury touched its highest level since the summer of 2019.

CITE: https://www.r2library.com/Resource/Title/082610254

World: European markets climbed, while stocks fell sharply in Hong Kong after the neighboring city of Shenzhen was ordered into a shutdown to combat China’s worst COVID-19 outbreak in two years.

Oil: Prices tumbled to take some pressure off the high inflation sweeping the world, with a barrel of U.S. crude falling toward $100 after touching $130 last week.

Microsoft: Closed at $276.44 in the latest trading session, marking a -1.3% move from the prior day. This change lagged the S&P 500’s 0.74% loss on the day. Heading into today, shares of the software maker had lost 5.07% over the past month, outpacing the Computer and Technology sector’s loss of 7.96% and lagging the S&P 500’s loss of 4.6% in that time.

FOMC: High inflation makes it a near certainty that the FOMC central bank will move to “tighten” its policies of printing money, by raising the target federal funds rate (the benchmark for short-term interest rates) by 0.25%. The uncertainty for Fed policy lies in how aggressive the central bank will move after the first interest rate increase. Concerns are building that the Fed may not be able to credibly bring inflation back down to its 2% level. Prices rose by 7.9% on a year-over-year basis in February, a 40-year high.

NOTE: Today is the Ides of March!

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Filed under: Alerts Sign-Up, Glossary Terms, Investing | Tagged: DJIA, European stocks, Federal Reserve Bank, FOMC, Hong Kong stocks, Ides March, microsoft, MSFT, NASDAQ, oil, Oil and the FOMC, S&P 500, tocks | Leave a comment »

UPDATE: The Domestic, European and Asian Stock Markets & Oil

Posted on March 9, 2022 by The D.E.A. ROGUE WARRIOR

By Staff Reporters

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MARKETS: Stocks finished lower losing steam late in the session, as investors remained focused on the surge in global crude prices and the broader commodity complex, as global markets continue to count the costs from Russia’ invasion of Ukraine.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average finished down 184.7 points, or 0.56%, to 32,632 while the S&P 500, which is down 11.75% for the year and fresh off its worst single-day decline in 17 months, lost 0.72%.

The NASDAQ Composite slipped 0.28% as 10-year Treasury note yields rose to 1.852%.

CITE: https://www.r2library.com/Resource/Title/082610254

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OIL: Futures ended higher Tuesday, with West Texas Intermediate crude for April delivery rising 3.6% to settle at $123.70 a barrel. That’s the highest front-month contract finish since August 1st, 2008, according to Dow Jones Market Data.

EUROPE: Rallied at the start of trade on Wednesday, buoyed by an interview from Ukraine’s president in which he appeared to make major concessions. The Stoxx Europe 600 rose 2.2% to 424.28, helped by a rally in the beleaguered banking sector. Gainers included BNP Paribas Adidas and Deutsche Post.

ASIA: At the close in Tokyo, the Nikkei 225 declined 0.30% to hit a new 52-week low. The best performers of the session on the Nikkei 225 were Isuzu Motors, Ltd. (T:7202), which rose 7.91% or 102.00 points to trade at 1,391.00 at the close. Meanwhile, Fujitsu Ltd. (T:6702) added 5.54% or 840.00 points to end at 16,000.00 and Hitachi Ltd (T:6501) was up 4.78% or 228.00 points to 4,998.00 in late trade. The worst performers of the session were Tokyo Electric Power Co., Inc. (T:9501), which fell 7.00% or 25.00 points to trade at 332.00 at the close. Kikkoman Corp. (T:2801) declined 6.67% or 560.00 points to end at 7,840.00 and Ricoh Co., Ltd. (T:7752) was down 4.91% or 47.00 points to 910.00.

Falling stocks outnumbered advancing ones on the Tokyo Stock Exchange by 2034 to 1517 and 220 ended unchanged. Shares in Ricoh Co., Ltd. (T:7752) fell to 52-week lows; losing 4.91% or 47.00 to 910.00.

The Nikkei Volatility, which measures the implied volatility of Nikkei 225 options, was up 6.54% to 29.82 a new 1-month high.

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Filed under: Alerts Sign-Up, Glossary Terms, Investing | Tagged: asian markets, DJIA, Dow Jones Industrial Average, european stock markets, NASDAQ, oil, Russia, S&P, Ukraine | 1 Comment »

UPDATE: Stocks Plunge, Oil Rises and Wheat Shakes the Market & Economy

Posted on March 8, 2022 by The D.E.A. ROGUE WARRIOR

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By Staff Reporters

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Stocks: Fell sharply as the economic fallout of Russia’s war in Ukraine rattled investors. The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell almost 800 points Monday to close with a loss of 2.4 percent. The NASDAQ plunged 3.6 percent lower and the S&P 500 index closed with a loss of 3 percent. Companies in the finance, travel, entertainment, retail and construction industries fell sharply as skyrocketing oil prices raised fears of an economic slowdown, while energy companies rallied on the prospect of higher prices. Stocks have fallen for weeks amid rising concern about inflation and the economic blow-back of the invasion of Ukraine. The Dow is down 10.3 percent, the S&P is down 12.4 percent, and the NASDAQ is down 19 percent since the start of 2022.

CITE: https://www.r2library.com/Resource/Title/082610254

Oil & Wheat: Prices for oil, natural gas and wheat have also risen dramatically after the U.S. and allies imposed unprecedented sanctions on the Russian economy, which could limit their access to key Russian exports. Oil hit $120 barrel. But, some investors are betting on oil to surge even more dramatically, as bullish bets on crude futures increase. Since Friday, $150-a-barrel call options for Brent contracts in June have doubled. Amid new potential sanctions on Russia’s energy sector, oil briefly surpassed $130 a barrel overnight.

FUTURES: https://medicalexecutivepost.com/2022/01/18/on-financial-futures/

Economy: Economists warned that higher energy and food prices will likely slow growth in the U.S. through the first half of the year and fuel higher inflation. Prices rose 7.5 percent over the 12 months ending in January, according to US Labor Department data, the highest rate in more than 40 years.

What’s Up with VIX Stock Market Volatility?

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UPDATE: The Markets, Futures Markets, Energy and Oil

Posted on March 7, 2022 by The D.E.A. ROGUE WARRIOR

By Staff Reporters

Markets: The war in Ukraine and upcoming Federal Reserve [FOMC] rate hikes took their toll on stocks—the DJIA took another licking for its fourth straight losing week and travel stocks were especially bludgeoned.
CITE: https://www.r2library.com/Resource/Title/082610254
Energy: Due to the rapid run-up in oil prices, average US gas prices surged to $3.84 a gallon on Friday. At 11 cents higher than Thursday’s levels, it’s the fastest price increase since Hurricane Katrina in 2005.

MARKETS

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FUTURES: Dow futures lost 400 points, or 1.19%, while S&P 500 futures and NASDAQ 100 futures slid 1.5% and 1.91%, respectively.

OIL: West Texas Intermediate crude futures, the U.S. oil benchmark, traded as much as 10%, hitting $130 per barrel at one point before pulling back slightly. The international benchmark, Brent crude, traded 9% higher to $128.60, also the highest prices seen since 2008.

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Filed under: Alerts Sign-Up, Glossary Terms, Investing | Tagged: Bitcoin, brent oil, Delta, DJIA, DJIA futures, dow futures, energy, gas prices, NASDAQ, oil, S&P, Ukraine | 2 Comments »

UPDATE: All About Gasoline Prices

Posted on March 6, 2022 by The D.E.A. ROGUE WARRIOR

By Staff Reporters

Gas prices just keep climbing higher, and a gallon of regular gas in the U.S. will likely average $4 before the end of the weekend. The national average for a gallon of regular gasoline rose to $3.92 Saturday, up from $3.84 on Friday, according to AAA.

Prices had risen 11 cents Friday, up from $3.73 on Thursday. That followed an 11-cent increase between Monday and Thursday. Prices averaged $3.60 a week ago and $3.44 a month ago. And, this week’s increases suggest it is likely the national average “could creep over $4/gallon tomorrow” .

Moreover, don’t look for gas prices to hold at $4 nationally. Many places are seeing gas of $5 or more already. The average price per gallon in California has surpassed $5 at $5.18, the most expensive market in the U.S., the AAA said.

Several other states have already surpassed the average $4 per gallon, according to AAA:

Hawaii ($4.69)
Nevada ($4.41)
Oregon ($4.38)
Washington ($4.33)
Alaska ($4.30)
Illinois ($4.16)
New York ($4.14)
Pennsylvania ($4.09)
Connecticut ($4.08)

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UPDATE: Okta, Snowflake, Intel, Stocks Indexes, Buy-Backs and Bonds

Posted on March 4, 2022 by The D.E.A. ROGUE WARRIOR

By Staff Reporters

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Stocks fell and oil prices eased back after another bumpy day of trading on Wall Street as markets remained anxious about the broader impact of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.

Okta shares were down 8.06% while Snowflake plummeted 15.37%.

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INTEL: Intel stock (NASDAQ: INTC) fell 2.5% after Morgan Stanley and Bank of America Securities cut their targets to $47, according to StreetInsider. The stock fell to a low of $47.62, not far from its 52-week low of $43.63. Morgan Stanley (NYSE:MS) analyst Joseph Moore also downgraded the stock to underweight from equal weight while BofA’s Vivek Arya maintained his under perform rating.

INDEXES: Major indexes veered up and down for much of the day before a late-day slide pushed them into the red. The S&P 500 shed a 0.7% gain to close 0.5% lower, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 0.3%. The NASDAQ composite fell 1.6%, weighed down by technology stocks, which accounted for a big share of the market’s decline.

The Dow is down 0.9% for the week, on track for its fourth negative week in a row. The S&P 500 is down about 0.5% for the week, while the NASDAQ Composite is down more than 1%.

BUYBACKS: In the third quarter of 2021, Apple, Inc. (NASDAQ: AAPL) led all S&P 500 companies with $20.4 billion in buybacks. Alphabet, Inc. (NASDAQ: GOOG) (NASDAQ: GOOGL) was a distant second with $15 billion in buybacks, followed by Meta Platforms Inc (NASDAQ: FB) with $12.6 billion.

Over the last decade, no company has come close to Apple in the buyback department. Apple has bought back $487.6 billion in stock since 2012. Microsoft Corporation (NASDAQ: MSFT) is a very distant second with $147.1 billion in buybacks, followed by JPMorgan Chase & Co (NYSE: JPM) with $146.2 billion.

Why Buybacks Matter: It should come as no surprise to investors that all three of the stocks that have been most aggressive in buying back shares over the last 10 years have outperformed the SPDR S&P 500 ETF (NYSE: SPY) total return by a wide margin in that period.

BONDS: Bond yields were mostly steady. The yield on the 10-year Treasury slipped to 1.85% from 1.86% late Wednesday.

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Filed under: Alerts Sign-Up, iMBA, Inc., Investing | Tagged: Apple, Bank of America Securities, bonds, DJIA, Facebook, FB, INTC, Intel, Investing, Joseph Moore, Meta, microsoft, MSFT, NASDAQ, oil, oil prices, Okta, Russia, S&P 500, Snowflake, stock buybacks, stock markets, stocks, stocks indexes, StreetInsider, Ukrains, Vivek Arya, Wall Street | Leave a comment »

UPDATE: IRS Interest Rates Rising, Currency Inflation and Upcoming Earning Reports, etc.

Posted on February 28, 2022 by The D.E.A. ROGUE WARRIOR

By Staff Reporters

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IRS: The IRS sent out a notice on February 23rd, warning taxpayers about a price hike coming in the next few months. The tax agency said that interest rates will increase for the calendar quarter starting April 1st, 2022. You can accrue interest on two types of payments: over-payment or underpayment. So starting in April, over-payments will have an interest rate of 4 percent, except for corporations which will earn a 3 percent rate and a 1.5 percent rate for the portion of a corporate over-payment that exceeds $10,000. In terms of underpayments, the interest rate will increase to 4 percent overall and 6 percent for large corporate underpayments.

“Under the Internal Revenue Code, the rate of interest is determined on a quarterly basis,” the IRS website explained. The tax agency did not change interest rates in this last quarter, which began Jan. 1, 2022. Before they get changed in April, the rates are currently 3 percent for general over-payments and 2 percent for corporation over-payments, with a 0.5 percent rate for the portion of a corporate over-payment exceeding $10,000. The underpayment interest is 3 percent right now, expect for large corporations which have a 5 percent rate.

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CURRENCY INFLATION: Inflation may occur when the Federal Reserve, or another central bank, adds fiat currency into circulation at a rate that exceeds that of the economy’s growth rate. That creates a situation in which there are more dollars bidding on fewer goods and services. The result is that goods and services cost more. One reason that inflation has been a constant in the US since 1933 is that the FOMC has continually increased the money supply. In response to the 2008 financial crisis, the Fed dropped its lending rate close to zero as a way to inject more liquidity into the economy, which led to increased inflation but not hyperinflation. While those increases have usually moved in step with growth, that hasn’t always been the case.

CITE: https://www.r2library.com/Resource/Title/0826102549

And so, in response to the COVID-19 pandemic and subsequent lock-downs, the Federal Reserve released the equivalent of $3.8 trillion in new liquidity in 2020. That amount was equal to roughly 20% of the dollars previously in circulation. And it is one reason why many investors were watching the CPI closely in 2021.

EARNING REPORTS:

Monday: India GDP data; Earnings from Lordstown Motors, Groupon, HP, SmileDirectClub and Zoom Video

Tuesday: US and China manufacturing data; Earnings from AutoZone, Baidu, Domino’s Pizza, Hostess Brands, J.M. Smucker, Kohl’s, Target, AMC Entertainment and Salesforce

Wednesday: European inflation data; Earnings from Abercrombie & Fitch, Dine Brands, Dollar Tree, Snowflake and Victoria’s Secret

Thursday: ISM Non-Manufacturing Index; Earnings from Best Buy, Weibo, Costco and Gap

Friday: US jobs report

10-Year: Treasuries rallied to 1.902%.

Oil: The rise in oil prices is spilling over at the gas pump: The average gas price in the US has jumped 10 cents, to $3.64/gallon, in the past two weeks.

Partial SWIFT ban: Western governments put aside their hesitations and proposed banning some Russian lenders from SWIFT, the global messaging service that facilitates cross-border transactions. It’s a move that could cause turmoil across global financial markets.

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UPDATE: Oil and the Growling [Bearish] Markets

Posted on February 24, 2022 by The D.E.A. ROGUE WARRIOR

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By Staff Reporters

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OIL: Brent crude, the world benchmark, briefly climbed above $100 a barrel for the first time since 2014. US crude jumped 3.3% to $95.15 a barrel.

U.S. stock indexes: All closed sharply lower with the DJIA narrowly avoiding a slip into correction, as U.S. officials warned that Russian troops were poised to attack, and are attacking, the Ukraine raising anxieties among investors who are also wrangling with changing monetary policy and surging inflation.

How did stock indexes trade? The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 464.85 points, or 1.4%, to end at 33,131.76. A finish below 33,119.69 would mark a 10% decline from the Dow’s Jan. 4 record close, meeting the commonly used definition of a correction. The S&P 500 index fell 79.26 points, or 1.8%, to around 4,225.50, deepening its stumble into correction territory. The NASDAQ Composite Index declined 344.03 points, or 2.6%, at 13,037.49, with 12,845.95 representing the level that would represent a bear market for the technology-laden index.

CITE: https://www.r2library.com/Resource/Title/0826102549

Asia: Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index declined 3.2%. Korea’s Kospi dropped 2.7%. Japan’s Nikkei 225 lost 2.4% after coming back from a holiday. China’s Shanghai Composite moved 0.9% lower.

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UPDATE: Foreign Markets, Oil and the Nikkei Index

Posted on February 21, 2022 by The D.E.A. ROGUE WARRIOR

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By Staff Reporters

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Wall Street trading is closed for Presidents Day holiday. But stock futures were ceding earlier stronger ground, while havens such gold pared losses, after a Kremlin spokesman said no concrete plans for a summit between President Joe Biden and Russian President Vladimir Putin had been made.

MARKETS: IHS Markit’s flash euro area composite PMI (purchasing managers’ index) reading, seen as a reliable gauge of overall economic health, came in at a five-month high of 55.8 in February. The U.K.’s composite PMI came in at an eight-month high of 60.2 in February, up from 54.2 in January and well above forecasts.

European markets were choppy today today as investors monitored the Russia-Ukraine situation and unexpectedly strong economic data from the euro zone and U.K. The pan-European Stoxx 600 index was down 1% during afternoon trade, having gained as much as 0.6% at the start of the session. And, tech stocks dropped 2.4% as most sectors and major bourses slid into the red.

OIL: According to Sonali Paul of Reuters – Oil prices gained more than $1 in early trade on Monday from rising jitters over potential conflict between Russia and Ukraine, with the United States and European Union making clear Russia would face sanctions if it invaded its neighbor. European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen said Russia would be cut off from international financial markets and denied access to major exports needed to modernize its economy if it invaded Ukraine.

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Brent crude futures were up $1.34, or 1.4%, at $94.88 a barrel at 2312 GMT after hitting a high of $95.00 in early trade.

NIKKEI: Shares in Asia-Pacific fell in Monday morning trade, as investors continue to watch the situation surrounding Ukraine.The Nikkei 225 in Japan slipped 2% in early trade while the TOPIX index shed 1.8%. South Korea’s KOSPI shed 1.64%. Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 slipped 0.82% in morning trade. And, MSCI’s broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan traded 0.36% lower.

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UPDATE: The Markets, Oil, CPI, Meta and Moderna Stock

Posted on February 16, 2022 by The D.E.A. ROGUE WARRIOR

By Staff Reporters

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Bull Market - Meaning, Indicators, Examples of Stocks/Crypto, How it Works?

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MARKETS: The Dow jumped 422 points, or 1.2%. The S&P 500 surged 1.5% and the NASDAQ was 2.5% higher.

OIL: US oil futures tumbled 3.7% to just under $92 a barrel. That’s despite the fact that Russia stressed that major military exercises would continue.

CPI: The Producer Price Index rose 1% last month, marking a significant acceleration from December’s 0.2% jump.

Meta: As Varietyreports, the company has agreed to pay $90 million to settle a 2012 class action lawsuit accusing it of violating users’ privacy. Facebook allegedly overstepped its bounds in 2010 and 2011 by using tracking cookies that monitored browsing after users signed out despite promises to the contrary.

MODERNA: Moderna Inc (NASDAQ: MRNA) shares were down more than 40% since the start of the year and continues to trend lower. Vaccine stocks are facing selling pressure as the COVID-19 omicron variant fades, but Moderna investors have been expressing concerns about recent stock sales from CEO Stéphane Bancel, as well as the presumed deletion of his Twitter account.

CITE: https://www.r2library.com/Resource/Title/082610254

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UPDATE: Oil, the Domestic & Asian Stock Markets and Investment Banking

Posted on February 14, 2022 by The D.E.A. ROGUE WARRIOR

By Staff Reporters

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OIL: The threat of a Russian invasion of Ukraine is shaking up a fragile global oil market, pushing prices to $94 barrel as supplies will struggle to cushion the effect from any significant disruption in Russian fossil fuel exports. The headlines that moved markets last week—the Fed’s response to inflation, corporate earnings, tensions in Ukraine—will remain top of mind for investors this coming week. Analysts predict that if Russia were to invade Ukraine, oil could top $100 a barrel for the first time since 2014. And, the average national gasoline price is about $3.50/gallon.

DOMESTIC MARKETS: Walmart, Airbnb, Nvidia, Roblox, and DraftKings will close out one of the most volatile earnings seasons in recent memory.

CITE: https://www.r2library.com/Resource/Title/0826102549

ASIAN MARKETS: Major Asian stock markets opened lower as investors sought safer bets ahead of a possible Russian military attack on the Ukraine. In Tokyo, the Nikkei 225 index dropped roughly 2 percent in the first hours of trading. South Korea’s KOSPI fell by a similar amount. And, while China’s big tech firms are under much regulatory pressure, they are also facing strong competition.

INVESTMENT BANKING: Roger Ng, the former head of investment banking in Malaysia for Goldman Sachs, will stand trial in New York beginning today. He’s accused of playing a prominent role in a massive laundering scheme that plundered billions from Malaysia’s sovereign wealth fund, 1MDB. Embezzled funds were used to buy a Beverly Hills hotel, a $200 million super-yacht, and even to help finance the film, Wolf of Wall Street.

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UPDATE: The Domestic Stock Markets and Oil

Posted on February 12, 2022 by The D.E.A. ROGUE WARRIOR

By Staff Reporters

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MARKETS: The DJIA Fell 503points yesterday, the NASDAQ collapsed 394 points and the S&P 500 dropped 85 points. Enough said!

OIL: Topped off at $94 barrel.

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UPDATE: Markets, Inflation, Earnings, Oil, Covid and the Economy

Posted on February 7, 2022 by The D.E.A. ROGUE WARRIOR

By Staff Reporters

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Why we need an economy that works for everyone — and how to get it | Medium

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Markets: Major stock market indexes, the S&P 500 and NASDAQ posted their best week so far this year. And, potential buyers for Peloton include Amazon, Nike, Apple, Google, Netflix, Microsoft, or a private equity firm.
Inflation: The monthly inflation report will drop on Thursday, and consumer prices are projected to have jumped 0.5% from the previous month and 7.3% over the past year—the biggest increase since 1982.
Earnings: From Snap’s 59% gain to Meta’s 26% wipeout. the companies reporting this week—Pfizer, Disney, Coca-Cola, Pepsi, Twitter and Zillow know that any small stain on their financials could lead to a stock plunge.
Oil: The big news is that US oil prices topped $90 for the first time since 2014, despite attempts by the Biden administration to keep them down. Gas prices are back up to their highest levels in more than seven years.
Covid: The US death toll from Covid-19 has now surpassed 900,000. And, Omicron has gotten more people around the world sick at the same time than at any point since the 1918–1919 flu pandemic, the WSJ points out.
Economy: The jobs report stunned experts by adding 467,000 jobs last month, far more than expected and a sign of an extraordinarily strong labor market.
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On OIL Investing for Physicians?

Posted on February 2, 2022 by The D.E.A. ROGUE WARRIOR

WHAT IT IS – HOW IT WORKS – WHY?

UPDATE: Hits $90 dollars/barrel

By Staff Reporters

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What it is: Exactly what it sounds like. The North American crude oil benchmark, known as West Texas Intermediate (WTI), is one of three main oil benchmarks used around the globe. While WTI is sourced primarily from Texas, it’s considered one of the highest-quality oils and is often refined into gasoline.

How it works: WTI is the physical commodity behind oil futures contracts traded on the New York Mercantile Exchange. Oil futures = financial instruments that allow investors to buy “abstract oil.” When the futures contract expires, that investment is converted into IRL oil, cashed out, or rolled into a future futures contract.

Why it matters: Oil prices are affected by economic conditions, supply and demand, and geopolitical forces. The coronavirus pandemic caused a historic collapse in prices this spring, and while prices have stabilized, the outlook is shaky.

CITE: https://www.r2library.com/Resource/Title/082610254

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UPDATE: Markets, Energy, Gaming and the Pandemic

Posted on January 19, 2022 by The D.E.A. ROGUE WARRIOR

By Staff Reporters

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Stock Markets: The prospect of higher borrowing costs has pummeled tech companies this year, and that didn’t change even after the market’s day off Monday. The 10-year yield jumped to its highest level in two years yesterday, pushing stocks (especially the tech-heavy NASDAQ) lower.
Oil Energy: Oil prices jumped to a 7-year high after an attack in the UAE raised concerns about a supply squeeze. Goldman Sachs predicts that Brent crude, the international oil benchmark, will top $100 a barrel this year because the pandemic hasn’t hurt demand for fuel as much as expected.
Gaming: An Activision Blizzard takeover would also be the biggest deal in the history of gaming, easily topping Take-Two’s purchase of Zynga for $12.7 billion last week. And, with the help of Activision’s impressive portfolio of titles including Call of Duty, World of Warcraft, Overwatch, Diablo, and Candy Crush, Microsoft will try to galvanize its monthly subscription business, Xbox Game Pass, as the “Netflix for games.”
Pandemic: New Covid cases have peaked in US regions that were hit hardest by the highly contagious variant, like the Northeast. For example, in New York City, the 7-day average of daily new cases has fallen to less than 20,000 from a high of almost 43,000 earlier this month. And, in the capital of Washington, DC, case numbers are down 20% over the last 14 days. Still, because hospitalizations tend to lag case growth by a few weeks, health care facilities are still treating more Covid patients. The average number of Covid hospitalizations has jumped 54% in the last two weeks, to 157,000.
CITE: https://www.r2library.com/Resource/Title/082610254

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Filed under: Alerts Sign-Up, Glossary Terms, Health Economics, Health Insurance, Healthcare Finance, LifeStyle | Tagged: Activision Blizzard, energy, gaming, oil, stock markets | Leave a comment »

UPDATE: Value Investing as Oil Gets Cheaper

Posted on December 20, 2021 by The D.E.A. ROGUE WARRIOR

As Oil Gets Cheaper – What Would Ben Graham Do?

By Vitaliy Katsenelson CFA

In terms of excitement, investing usually rivals watching paint dry. This has not been the case lately.

LINK: Oil Gets Cheaper – What Would Ben Graham Do?

COMMENTS APPRECIATED.

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UPDATE: https://oilprice.com/

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Filed under: Investing | Tagged: commodities, oil, Vitaliy Katsenelson CFA | 2 Comments »

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