On OIL Investing for Physicians?

WHAT IT IS – HOW IT WORKS – WHY?

UPDATE: Hits $90 dollars/barrel

By Staff Reporters

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What it is: Exactly what it sounds like. The North American crude oil benchmark, known as West Texas Intermediate (WTI), is one of three main oil benchmarks used around the globe. While WTI is sourced primarily from Texas, it’s considered one of the highest-quality oils and is often refined into gasoline.

How it works: WTI is the physical commodity behind oil futures contracts traded on the New York Mercantile Exchange. Oil futures = financial instruments that allow investors to buy “abstract oil.” When the futures contract expires, that investment is converted into IRL oil, cashed out, or rolled into a future futures contract.

Why it matters: Oil prices are affected by economic conditions, supply and demand, and geopolitical forces. The coronavirus pandemic caused a historic collapse in prices this spring, and while prices have stabilized, the outlook is shaky.

CITE: https://www.r2library.com/Resource/Title/082610254

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On Financial Futures for Physicians

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What it is – How it works?

By Tim McIntosh MBA CFP CMP® MPH www.SIPLLC.com

Courtesy: http://www.CertifiedMedicalPlanner.org

TMA future is a financial derivative that represents the purchase of a particular investment at a predetermined date. Futures are traded on a wide range of investments (e.g., baskets of stocks, interest rates, currencies and commodities) and are useful tools for controlling the risk of cash flow timing for those that wish to lock in a particular price for a security.

Futures versus Options

Likewise, they also provide some insight as to the expected future price in the market of the security.

The key difference between futures and options is that futures obligate both parties to make the agreed upon transaction, whereas options give the option holder the right, but not the requirement, to make the transaction.

Trades

Futures are typically traded on an organized exchange, such as the Chicago Board of Trade (e.g., interest rate and stock index futures) or the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (e.g., foreign exchange and stock futures). The design of the contract traded on an exchange typically includes a pre-defined contract size and delivery month.

Margin Maintenance

Also, futures transactions generally require maintaining a margin deposit (i.e., a fraction of the trade value held in reserve to help ensure the final settlement at the contract settlement date) and the recognition of gains and losses on a daily basis with movements in contract prices.

Japan and world markets tumbling - dollar stronger

Assessment

The pricing of a futures contract is based upon the price of the underlying security (e.g., the S&P 500 Index price), the opportunity cost of cash (e.g., current borrowing rates) and any distributions expected from the security over the period (e.g., dividends).

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About the Author

Timothy J. McIntosh is Chief Investment Officer and founder of SIPCO.  As chairman of the firm’s investment committee, he oversees all aspects of major client accounts and serves as lead portfolio manager for the firm’s equity and bond portfolios. Mr. McIntosh was a Professor of Finance at Eckerd College from 1998 to 2008. He is the author of The Bear Market Survival Guide and the The Sector Strategist

Conclusion

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Risk Management, Liability Insurance, and Asset Protection Strategies for Doctors and Advisors: Best Practices from Leading Consultants and Certified Medical Planners™8Comprehensive Financial Planning Strategies for Doctors and Advisors: Best Practices from Leading Consultants and Certified Medical Planners™

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GOLD Investing for Physicians

WHAT IT IS – HOW IT WORKS – WHY?

By Staff Reporters

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What it is: With its use as a commodity tracing back to Ancient Lydian merchants over 2,500 years ago, gold has the most staying power of any indicator on this list. When investors talk about gold prices today, they’re most likely referring to the price per ounce of gold bullion (those gold bars bad guys keep in briefcases).

How it works: Gold is priced in U.S. dollars around the world. Investors can buy physical gold in the form of bullion or coins or go for more intangible gold securities, such as futures, ETF shares, or investments in gold mining companies.

Why it matters: In a 21st century economy where currencies aren’t pegged to the gold standard and credit cards are the medium of exchange, some investors argue gold is a relic. But others turn to the metal for diversification or as a “safe-haven asset”—something to buy during times of geopolitical or economic uncertainty because it holds onto its value.

CITE: https://www.r2library.com/Resource/Title/082610254

RELATED; https://www.forbes.com/advisor/investing/how-to-invest-in-gold/

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Understanding Commodities Investing

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Investing in Raw Materials

[By Staff Writers]

According to Jeff Coons, PhD, CFP™, a commodity is a standardized asset that is typically used as an input for production of one or more products.  Almost any raw material or product that has very consistent characteristics irrespective of the producer (i.e., little to no differentiation between producers) may be considered a commodity.

Commodity Examples:

Examples of commodities that are traded broadly in the financial markets include food products, such as wheat and pork bellies, and metals, such as gold and aluminum.  In most cases, the trading of commodities is done through futures.

A Supply / Demand Hedge

Commodities do not have ongoing cash payments associated with them. Instead, a commodity’s value is a result of supply and demand for the asset as a consumable or as an input for other goods. 

Thus, while some physician-investors use commodity futures as a hedge to offset changes in the value of the commodity between now and the date the commodity is needed by the investor, others will make commodity investments based upon a belief that the supply/demand relationship will change in their favor. 

GOLD: https://medicalexecutivepost.com/2021/12/18/gold-investing/

Assessment

In the latter case, commodities represent a knowledge-based market in which an investor must believe that he/she has a better perspective on the future price of the commodity than other speculators. Consequently, if a physician-investor does not have superior information regarding the future supply and demand for the commodity, then commodity investments become generally less attractive as compared to investments providing ongoing cash payments.

Conclusion

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UPDATE: Value Investing as Oil Gets Cheaper

As Oil Gets Cheaper – What Would Ben Graham Do?

By Vitaliy Katsenelson CFA

In terms of excitement, investing usually rivals watching paint dry. This has not been the case lately.

LINKOil Gets Cheaper – What Would Ben Graham Do?

Risk Management, Liability Insurance, and Asset Protection Strategies for Doctors and Advisors: Best Practices from Leading Consultants and Certified Medical Planners™Comprehensive Financial Planning Strategies for Doctors and Advisors: Best Practices from Leading Consultants and Certified Medical Planners™

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UPDATE: https://oilprice.com/

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A Value Investing Metaphor for Doctors

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Via a Cats and Dogs Allegory

By Rick MS CFP® ChFC CCIM www.KahlerFinancial.com

Rick Kahler CFP“I’d really like a Maine Coon cat, but they cost around $800. I’m not going to pay that much for a cat.”

The man who said this paid $500 for his purebred Lab. Obviously, he’s willing to spend money on things he enjoys, like hunting dogs. Yet when it comes to paying cold hard cash for a cat, he draws the line.

So, apparently, do a lot of other people. I have quite a few clients who are happy to spend hundreds of dollars for a particular breed of dog. I don’t know of a single client who has ever spent that much for a particular breed of cat.

Utility

Except my wife. Marcia has just begun breeding and selling Balinese cats, worth $1,000 each. She asked me why people are so much more willing to write checks for purebred dogs than they are for cats.

She didn’t buy my argument that dogs are inherently more intelligent, friendly, and worthwhile than cats.

If that isn’t the explanation, what is? Maybe it’s because the basic reason people buy purebred dogs or cats is to get specific looks and personality traits. Most dog breeds are quite distinct; anyone can tell a Great Dane from a Bichon Frise. Yet the only cat many people even recognize as a separate breed is probably the Siamese.

Maybe dogs are seen as more useful. I don’t know of any hunting cats, Seeing Eye cats, or watch cats. Still, that doesn’t explain all those Chihuahuas and tiny terriers that sell for hundreds of bucks a pound.

Value?

The point here is that whether a given commodity is seen as valuable depends on a variety of factors. Utility is one. In early Deadwood, Dakota Territory, an enterprising freighter brought in a load of cats and sold them at a premium to pioneers desperate for mouse and rat control. In that case, cats were more valuable than dogs.

Supply and Demand Economics

Supply and demand is another factor. A house that’s worth $150,000 in Box Elder, South Dakota, might be worth $600,000 in San Francisco, where unarguably more people would like to live. When there’s an over-abundance of cheap goods in the form of unwanted kittens flooding the market, people may be less likely to pay real cash for even purebred cats.

Commodity

Another reason people value one commodity over another is that they have been persuaded to see it as worth more. In Biblical times, frankincense and myrrh were highly prized and worth their weight in gold. Today, one pound of frankincense and myrrh goes for $13.95 on Amazon, while one pound of gold sells for around $24,000.

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gold bars

Gold

Fifteen times more gold is mined each year than platinum, the rarest of all precious metals, yet gold sells for more per ounce. Why? Gold has a long history of being perceived as the world’s most precious metal.

Designer Clothes

For much the same reason, people will pay a hundred bucks or more for a pair of designer blue jeans when they could get essentially the same thing for $19.99 at a discount store. The brand name jeans are seen as more valuable.

Marketing and Perceived Value

The simple reason for this is marketing.

When it comes to perceived value, dogs have benefitted from better marketing than cats. Just think of heroic military dogs, hard-working Seeing Eye dogs, and screen stars like Lassie rescuing people from burning buildings. Even the Taco Bell Chihuahua gets to advertise fast food. Cats get to advertise kitty litter and cat food.

Assessment

Cats just need to find a better advertising agency. They have some work to do if they want to come up with a slogan to top “Man’s Best Friend.”

Conclusion

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The [Gold] Commodity Concern Bubble

Are We Looking At Another Bursting Bubble?

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Financial Advisors [FAs], doctors and all investors know that gold [and some other commodities] are at an all time high!

So, here’s a look at some of the most striking commodity rises over the last decade, and which ones have crashed in 2011. Brought to you by Focus.com

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The “Life Cycle Investment Hypothesis”

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Physicians Returning to Zero?

[By Somnath Basu PhD, MBA] 

How have your investments done over the last three years? If you were to ask doctors, or the myriads of people who are or even pose as professional financial advisors, they would generally say that it would depend on how well your portfolio was diversified. By this jargon, they would mean how your money (in what proportions) was invested among various asset classes such as stocks, bonds, commodities, cash etc. The more it was spread out around various asset classes, the safer they would have been.

To see how safe (or how risky) your portfolio was over the last few years, it’s useful to view how these asset classes themselves fared over this time period. That is what is shown in the next chart where the following asset class performances over the last few years are shown. The chart shows the performances of stocks (S&P 500 shown by the symbol ^GPSC, in red), bonds (symbol IEI, Barclay’s 3-7 Year Treasury Bond index etf, in light green), Commodities (DBC, Powershares etf, in dark green), Long dollar (UUP, Powershares long dollar etf, in orange; this fund allows speculating on the dollar going up against a basket of important currencies; whenever the world financial markets are in turmoil, this index generally goes up as investors around the world seek the “safe haven” status of the dollar.

Alternately, note that this index value will also typically rise when the domestic economy is in a sound condition and both domestic and international investors favor the U.S. financial markets) and the short dollar (UDN, the Powershares inverse of UUP). Note that the “Cash” asset class has been left out and returns on cash (or money market funds) have been close to zero the whole time.

There are a few startling observations from this period. The first part that arrests the eye is how commodities performed over this time period. If your portfolio was heavy in this sector, you had a heck of a ride these last three years. If you had a lot of stocks as well, heck, your ride just got wilder. As can also be seen from the picture, healthy doses of bonds and currencies would have made your ride that much smoother.

On the other hand, what is additionally startling to observe is that we all started this period close to zero returns in the beginning of 2007 (around March 2007) and in June 2010, we are all converging back to zero returns. No matter how you were diversified, you either took a smooth ride (well diversified portfolio) from a zero return environment to a zero return environment or a wilder ride. That is why diversification is so important. Another way to gauge your diversification benefit is to use a two-pronged system.

The first is what I refer to as the “monthly statement effect”. When your monthly financial statements come in, you first observe the current month’s ending balance, then the previous month’s ending balance and then have a great day, a lousy day or an uneventful day. Depending on how good or bad (how volatile the ride) the monthly effect is, it may last for much more than just a day, maybe days. The second piece is your age.

Life Cycle Investment Hypothesis

As you grow older, you ask yourself how wild a ride can you tolerate at this point in your life? Hopefully, as you age, this tolerance level should show significant declines. If it does, you are then joining a rational investment group practicing a “lifecycle-investment hypothesis” style. Finally, did anything do well during this time? Yes, and surprisingly from an asset class whose underlying asset is shaped too like a zero – mother earth and real estate. Having some real estate in your investment basket (another important diversification asset) would not only have smoothed your ride but would have made your financial life so much more pleasurable. Just take a look at this picture below (FRESX, an old Fidelity’s real estate index fund) which says it all.

Assessment

Even in the darkest days of falling real estate markets of 2008, this fund produced a positive return. Of course many other real estate indexes lost their bottoms; thus finding these stable indexes in all asset classes are well worth their salt. That is, if it is time for you to diversify.

Conclusion

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