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    Dr. Marcinko is originally from Loyola University MD, Temple University in Philadelphia and the Milton S. Hershey Medical Center in PA; as well as Oglethorpe University and Emory University in Georgia, the Atlanta Hospital & Medical Center; Kellogg-Keller Graduate School of Business and Management in Chicago, and the Aachen City University Hospital, Koln-Germany. He became one of the most innovative global thought leaders in medical business entrepreneurship today by leveraging and adding value with strategies to grow revenues and EBITDA while reducing non-essential expenditures and improving dated operational in-efficiencies.

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What is Knightian Uncertainty in Economics?

About Frank Knight PhD

[By staff reporters]

In economics, Knightian uncertainty is a lack of any quantifiable knowledge about some possible occurrence, as opposed to the presence of quantifiable risk (e.g., that in statistical noise or a parameter’s confidence interval). The concept acknowledges some fundamental degree of ignorance, a limit to knowledge, and an essential unpredictability of future events.

Knightian uncertainty is named after University of Chicago economist Frank Knight (1885–1972), who distinguished risk and uncertainty in his work Risk, Uncertainty, and Profit:[1]

“Uncertainty must be taken in a sense radically distinct from the familiar notion of Risk, from which it has never been properly separated…. The essential fact is that ‘risk’ means in some cases a quantity susceptible of measurement, while at other times it is something distinctly not of this character; and there are far-reaching and crucial differences in the bearings of the phenomena depending on which of the two is really present and operating…. It will appear that a measurable uncertainty, or ‘risk’ proper, as we shall use the term, is so far different from an unmeasurable one that it is not in effect an uncertainty at all.”

MORE: RD

***

Assessment: Your thoughts are appreciated.

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Editor’s Pick: 

Daily Round-Up of Headlines for December 2014

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Investing and Economics is an Imprecise Science

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BUT … It’s still all about CONSUMERISM!

[By Dr. David Edward Marcinko MBA MBBS [Hon] CMP]

http://www.CertifiedMedicalPlanner.org

DEM 2013There is a major variable, dominant in any marketplace that pushes an economy in a forward direction. It is called consumerism.

This became apparent while I was waiting in a doctor colleague’s office one recent afternoon.

Scenario:

The front office receptionist, who appeared to be about 21 years old, was breaking for lunch and her replacement, and appeared not much older, came over to assist.

Realizing the propensity for a long wait, one was taken by the size of waiting room and the number of patients coming in and out of the office. [Americans consume healthcare and a lot of it].

There was another notable peculiarity. The sample prescription bags being carried out the door were no match for the bags under everyone’s eyes, including the doctor’s. The office staff was probably working overtime, if not two jobs, and the doctor was working harder and faster in a managed care / ACA system.

***

stock-exchange-

[Consumerism driving the Stock Market]

***

Why?

So they all could afford to buy and voraciously consume for their children and themselves. Americans indeed work longer hours than any other industrialized nation.

Assessment

Additionally, as women female medical professionals entered the workforce in unprecedented numbers, the stock markets reached an all time high in 2015, even as money was spent at a feverish pace as the Federal Reserve pumped out money in inflammatory fashion.

Channel Surfing

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Health Economics Defined

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How We Use and Allocate Scarce Resources

Sex Voucher

Asseessment

A sex voucher – delayed gratification?

Conclusion

Your thoughts and comments on this ME-P are appreciated. Feel free to review our top-left column, and top-right sidebar materials, links, URLs and related websites, too. Then, subscribe to the ME-P. It is fast, free and secure.

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Introducing Somnath Basu; PhD MBA

Our Newest ME-P Thought-Leader in Finance and Economics

By Ann Miller; RN, MHA

[Executive Director]Dr. Basu

Dr. Somnath Basu is a Professor of Finance at California Lutheran University and the Director of its California Institute of Finance. Dr. Basu is also a Professor of the Helsinki School of Economics Executive MBA Program. He earned his BA in Economics, University of Delhi, MBA (Finance), Marquette University and a PhD (Finance), University of Arizona.

Publications and Experience

Dr. Basu is extensively published in the field of investments and financial planning and is an award winning teacher. He has significant consulting experience with US Fortune 100 companies, advising institutional money managers and in developing proprietary personal investment software. Dr. Basu is actively involved with financial planning organizations including the National Endowment for Financial Education (NEFE), the CFP Board of Standards, International CFP Board and the Financial Planning Association. He coauthored the book (with Block and Hirt), “Investment Planning for Financial Professionals” McGraw Hill, May 2006 which is widely used by financial planning programs nationwide. 

AssessmentCLU

To regular our ME-P readers, Dr. Basu’s opinions are well known and not without controversy. But, whether you agree with him or not, his commitment to the industry and his economics and financial planning students is solid. And, always adhering to the Socratic dialog tradition of candor intelligence and goodwill.

Link: https://healthcarefinancials.wordpress.com/2009/04/09/i-jealously-shake-my-fist-at-somnath-basu/

Link: https://healthcarefinancials.wordpress.com/2009/04/16/dr-somnath-basu-replies-to-the-cfp%c2%ae-mis-trust-controversy/ 

Conclusion

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Defining Comparative Medical Effectiveness

An Emerging Health Economics Issue

By Staff Reportersdhimc-book8

Comparative Medical Effectiveness [CME] is not a new healthcare term or health economics concept. Federal initiatives specifically promoting CME were authorized under the Medicare Modernization Act of 2003, but the genesis took root decades before.

Finally … a Hot Topic

Comparative Medical Effectiveness has recently become a hot topic again throughout the arena of health care stakeholders, due to funding and initiatives advanced by the Obama administration, and the positive and negative reactions drawn by different sectors of stakeholders.

Related to Evidence Based Outcomes

For stakeholders including numerous health care policy organizations, the health plan industry, and various health care provider organizations: public and private promotion of Comparative Medical Effectiveness reviews and processes offer the potential for more evidence-based, outcome-benefit or even cost-benefit driven information to improve the health care decision making for all parties. And, for stakeholders concerned about limiting the role of government and third parties in their level of regulation and control over the direct delivery of specific patient care, Comparative Medical Effectiveness may become a lightening rod due to perceived potential as to how the process and information could ultimately be applied.

Definition of the CBO Report

The Congressional Budget Office Report “Comparative Effectiveness: Issues and Options for an Expanded Federal Role” offers the definition that follows:

“As applied in the health care sector, an analysis of comparative medical effectiveness is simply a rigorous evaluation of the impact of different options that are available for treating a given medical condition for a particular set of patients. Such a study may compare similar treatments, such as competing drugs, or it may analyze very different approaches, such as surgery and drug therapy. The analysis may focus only on the relative medical benefits and risks of each option, or it may also weigh both the costs and the benefits of those options. In some cases, a given treatment may prove to be more effective clinically or more cost-effective for a broad range of patients, but frequently a key issue is determining which specific types of patients would benefit most from it. Related terms include cost–benefit analysis, technology assessment, and evidence-based medicine, although the latter concepts do not ordinarily take costs into account.”

Assessment

For related financial, economics, managed-care, insurance, health information technology and security, and health administrative terms and definitions of modernity, visit: http://www.springerpub.com/Search/marcinko

Conclusion

And so, your thoughts and comments on this Medical Executive-Post are appreciated. How do you define this term, and is its’ very definition evolving?

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Hospital Financial Capital Capacity

An Economic Risk Measurement

By Calvin Weise; MBA, CPAho-journal5

Hospital capital capacity is all about risk.

A Risk Measurement

Since capital investments have risks associated with them, capital capacity is a measurement of how much risk a hospital can bear. Capital capacity is not simple to determine. Capital investments introduce varying levels of risk, depending on the relative uncertainty of the benefits to be derived.

For example, one million dollars invested in an MRI at a hospital that has a two-month backlog for scheduling MRIs has much lower risk than $1 million invested in a new service like a PET scanner.

Profit Margins

Profit margins affect capital capacity. Larger profit margins create larger capacity for uncertainty which implies more risk and that means more capital capacity. Higher liquidity means more capital capacity. Lower debt leverage means more capital capacity. Liquidity and leverage are balance sheet ratios. Both imply capacity to absorb uncertain outcomes; both affect capital capacity.

Capital Determinations

Determining capital capacity is more art than science because of the variability in risk presented by various capital investments and the subjectivity associated with trying to measure that uncertainty.

That having been said, it is important to build models that estimate capital capacity. Most capital capacity models ignore the variability in risk presented by capital investments. They are typically built from published rating agency financial ratio medians. These models are based on the view that financial ratios of similar rating categories represent equivalent risks.

Of course, this is a simplistic view as it suggests that credit analysts simply categorize risk on the basis of financial ratios. It is not the case as the recent financial meltdown has demonstrated. Even the major credit rating agencies have been implicated as suspect; of late

Assessment

Published medians are the result of credit analysis, not the basis for credit analysis. Importantly, what is not usually published is the range or distribution around these medians. Models that estimate risk need to differentiate among risks presented by capital investments. Capital investments with little risk should consume less capital capacity than capital investments with a lot of risk.

Link: www.HealthcareFinancials.com

Conclusion

And so, your thoughts and comments on this Medical Executive-Post are appreciated. How does your practice, medical clinic or hospital measure and report capital risk; does it?

Speaker: If you need a moderator or speaker for an upcoming event, Dr. David E. Marcinko; MBA – Publisher-in-Chief of the Executive-Post – is available for seminar or speaking engagements. Contact: MarcinkoAdvisors@msn.com  or Bio: www.stpub.com/pubs/authors/MARCINKO.htm

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