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Posted on June 26, 2025 by Dr. David Edward Marcinko MBA MEd CMP™
By AI
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Stocks: The S&P 500 and NASDAQ started the day inches away from their all-time highs, but the market rally faltered in mid-afternoon as relief from an Israel/Iran ceasefire faded and investors turned their attention to Friday’s PCE report.
Economy: Speaking of inflation, Jerome Powell stuck to his guns during his second day of congressional testimony, endorsing a wait-and-see mentality. President Trump is apparently tired of waiting, and says he has “3 or 4” candidates in mind to replace Powell.
Commodities: Oil bounced back after posting its biggest two-day decline since 2022.
Here is a list of the most common and helpful investment terms you’ll come across and should know.
Ask. The price that someone looking to sell stock wants to receive.
Bid. The price that someone is willing to pay for stock.
Buy. To acquire shares and thereby take a position in a company.
Sell. To get rid of shares whether because you’ve reached your goal or to prevent losses.
Bull market. Market conditions in which investors expect prices to rise.
Bear market. Market conditions in which investors expect prices to fall.
Dividend. A portion of a company’s earnings paid to shareholders.
Blue chip stocks. Shares of large and well-recognized companies that have a long history of solid financial performance.
Earning per share. A company’s net profit divided by the number of outstanding common shares.
Mutual fund. A collection of investments — stocks, bonds, commodities, and more — bundled together and held in common by a group of investors.
Asset. Something you own that could generate a return in the form of more assets.
Asset allocation. Your investment strategy, essentially — the mix of assets you choose to put your money into, whether that be cash, bonds, stocks, commodities, real estate or something else.
Broker. A person or firm — or robot — that arranges transactions between buyers and sellers in exchange for a commission (that is, a fee).
Capital gain (or capital loss). The money you make (or lose) on the sale of an asset.
Diversification. Investing in a variety of sectors, such as health care, energy and IT as well as across different geographic locations.
Dow Jones Industrial Average. A price-weighted list of 30 blue-chip stocks. It’s often used to help get a sense of the overall health of the stock market, even though it only reflects a small portion of the players.
Index fund. A type of mutual fund or exchange-traded fund that allows you to invest in a portfolio that mimics a market index, which is basically a list that tracks the performance of a group of investments either for a specific sector or the overall market.
Hedge fund. A type of investment partnership. Partners pool money from investors and try out a few different investing strategies. Generally, hedge funds will make riskier investments than your typical investor. They’ll also often use leverage (that is, borrowed money) or place bets against the market to get bigger returns. They make their money by charging their investors management fees based on a percentage of their profits.
Expense ratio. The percentage-based fee that mutual fund managers charge you to manage your investments.
Market price. How much it would cost right now to buy or sell an asset or service.
Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC). An independent government body that was created to protect investors and the national banking system. The SEC enforces laws that maintain orderly, fair and efficient markets.
Short selling. A tactic available to investors who predict a stock’s price is about to drop. An investor borrows a quantity of shares through a broker and then sells them, intending to repurchase them later, at a lower price, and return them to the lender.
Stock exchange. A place buyers and sellers come together to buy, sell and trade stock during set business hours. The New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) is the most important stock exchange in the world, but there are a total of 16 exchanges around the world.
Stock market. Refers in general to the collection of markets and exchanges where the buying, selling and trading of investment vehicles takes place.
Price per share. A simple way of calculating a company’s market value at a given moment. To find the price per share, you take a company’s most recent share price and multiply it by its total number of outstanding shares.
Prospectus. A legal document that contains in-depth information about anything you might be planning to invest in: stocks, bonds or mutual funds.
A psychological paradox is a figure of speech that can seem silly or contradictory in form, yet it can still be true, or at least make sense in the context given.
This is sometimes used to illustrate thoughts or statements that differ from traditional ideas. So, instead of taking a given statement literally, an individual must comprehend it from a different perspective. Using paradoxes in speeches and writings can also add wit and humor to one’s work, which serves as the perfect device to grab a reader or a listener’s attention and/or persuade them to action, sales and closing statements. But paradoxes for the financial sector can be quite difficult to explain by definition alone, which is why it is best to refer to a few examples to further your understanding.
One good psychological paradox example is The Paradox of Thrift which suggests that while saving money is generally considered a prudent financial behavior, excessive saving during times of economic downturn can actually hinder economic recovery. When consumers collectively reduce their spending and increase their savings, it creates a decrease in aggregate demand. This reduction in demand can lead to lower production levels, job losses, and ultimately a decline in economic output. In other words, what may be individually rational behavior (financial saving) can have negative consequences for the overall economy.
The following paradoxical contradictions will help financial advisors guide clients to close more sales to the benefit of both.
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In the intricate world of finance sales, advisors are often at the crossroads of various paradoxes that challenge client decision-making. While the journey towards financial security involves calculated strategies, it’s the nuanced understanding of paradoxes that can help the advisor close more sales.
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But, what seems trueabout money often turns out to be false, according to colleague Finance Professor John Goodell, PhD from the University Akron:
The more we try to trade our way to profits, the less likely we are to profit.
The more boring an investment—think index funds—the more exciting the long-run performance will probably be.
The more exciting an investment—name your latest Wall Street concoction, Special Purpose Acquisition Company [SPAC] or anything crypto—the less exciting the long-term results typically are.
The only certainty is uncertainty and the only constant is change. Today’s market decline will eventually become a bull market, and today’s market leaders will eventually yield to other stocks.
Big market trends play a huge role in investment results, and yet trying to time macroeconomic cycles or guess which market sectors will outperform is a fool’s errand. Many big market rotations are set in motion by something wholly unanticipated, like a virus pandemic or a war.
To be happy when wealthy, we also need to be happy with far less money. The fact is, above a relatively modest income level, no amount of extra money will change our level of happiness. More money might even make us miserable, as many lottery winners have discovered.
The more we hate an investing trait—or any trait for that matter—the more likely it is that we’re resisting seeing that trait in ourselves. It’s what Carl Jung MD called the Shadowof Undesirable Personality Aspects that we hide from ourselves. Do prospects get irritated listening to your unsolicited financial advice? There’s a good chance that you often give unsolicited financial advice but don’t like to admit it.
The more we learn about investing, the more we realize we don’t know anything. We should just buy index funds and instead spend our time worrying about stuff we can actually control.
The more an investor is convinced he’s right, the more likely he is to be wrong. Short sellers, in particular, are likely to succumb to this paradoxical trap.
The more options we have, the less satisfied we’ll be with each one. This is the Paradox of Choice; revised. Anyone who has spent hours “optimizing” his or her portfolio knows this all too well. Its close cousin is information overload, another frustration paradox when investing.
The more afraid we are of losing money, the more likely we are to take unwitting risks that lose us money. Sitting in cash seems wise during market selloffs. But the truth is, none of us can reliably time the market. Pull up any chart of the stock market over any period longer than a decade and you’ll see that the riskiest decision is sitting in cash, which gets destroyed by inflation.
The more we think about our investments and look at our financial accounts, the more likely we are to damage our results by buying high because of greed and selling low because of fear. It can pay to look away.
ASSESSMENT
How should you respond to these financial paradoxes? As you plan for your own financial future, as well as your own client prospecting endeavors, embrace the concept of “loosely held views.”
In other words, make financial and client acquisitions plans, but continuously update your views, question your assumptions and paradoxes and rethink your priorities. Years of experience with clients certainly support the futility of trying to help them change their financial behavior by telling them what they “should” know or do.
CONCLUSION
Remember, it is far more useful to listen to client beliefs, fears and goals, and to suggest options and offer encouragement to help them discover their own path toward financial well-being. Then, incentivize them with knowledge of the above psychological paradoxes to your mutual success!
SPEAKING: Dr. Marcinko will be speaking and lecturing, signing and opining, teaching and preaching, storming and performing at many locations throughout the USA this year! His tour of witty and serious pontifications may be scheduled on a planned or ad-hoc basis; for public or private meetings and gatherings; formally, informally, or over lunch or dinner. All medical societies, financial advisory firms or Broker-Dealers are encouraged to submit an RFP for speaking engagements: CONTACT: Ann Miller RN MHA at MarcinkoAdvisors@outlook.com
Marcinko, DE and Hetico, HR: Comprehensive Financial Planning Strategies for Doctors and Advisors [Best Practices from Leading Consultants and Certified Medical Planners™]. CRC Productivity Press, New York, 2016.
Marcinko, DE: Dictionary of Health Economics and Finance. Springer Publishing Company, New York. 2006
Marcinko, DE and Hetico, HR: Risk Management, Liability Insurance, and Asset Protection Strategies for Doctors and Advisors [Best Practices from Leading Consultants and Certified Medical Planners™]. CRC Productivity Press, New York, 2015.
Posted on June 2, 2025 by Dr. David Edward Marcinko MBA MEd CMP™
BREAKING NEWS
By Staff Reporters
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Stanley Fischer, one of the most influential economists of recent decades, has died. He was 81. His death was confirmed by the WSJ and Bank of Israel, where he served as governor from 2005 to 2013.
Fischer served as vice chairman of the Federal Reserve from 2014 to 2017. He left his biggest mark in prior decades, as professor of economics at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology, second in command at the International Monetary Fund, and at the Bank of Israel. In those roles, Fischer helped shape how an entire generation of central bankers and economic policymakers do their jobs.
Fischer was born in 1943 in Northern Rhodesia (now the independent country of Zambia) and first came to the U.S. in 1966 to get a Ph.D. at MIT.
After several years at the University of Chicago, he joined the faculty of MIT.
According to Baumol’s Cost Disease, in theory, workers should get higher pay because they get more productive. But an economist named William J. Baumol PhD noticed this isn’t always true; as in a paradox.
For example, musicians take the same time to play a string quartet as they did in Mozart’s day, but are paid more nevertheless. The reason is competition for labor; musicians can take other jobs. So rising wages in productive parts of the economy (eg, manufacturing) lead to higher wages in less productive sectors.
MORE: For more on the paradoxical disease, read this article; and for more on Baumol, read this one.
Free-market economists are those who believe that the market is better at allocating resources than governments and that excessive regulation and high public spending tend to diminish growth in the long run.
“Medical economics and finance is an integral component of the health care industrial complex. Its language is a diverse and broad-based concept covering many other industries: accounting, insurance, mathematics and statistics, public health, provider recruitment and retention, Medicare, health policy, forecasting, aging and long-term care, are all commingled arenas …. The Dictionary of Health Economics and Finance will be an essential tool for doctors, nurses and clinicians, benefits managers, executives and health care administrators, as well as graduate students and patients. With more than 5,000 definitions, 3,000 abbreviations and acronyms, and a 2,000 item oeuvre of resources, readings, and nomenclature derivatives, it covers the financial and economics language of every health care industry sector.”
SPEAKING: Dr. Marcinko will be speaking and lecturing, signing and opining, teaching and preaching, storming and performing at many locations throughout the USA this year! His tour of witty and serious pontifications may be scheduled on a planned or ad-hoc basis; for public or private meetings and gatherings; formally, informally, or over lunch or dinner. All medical societies, financial advisory firms or Broker-Dealers are encouraged to submit a RFP for speaking engagements: MarcinkoAdvisors@outlook.com
Posted on May 21, 2025 by Dr. David Edward Marcinko MBA MEd CMP™
DEFINED
By Staff Reporters
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Stocks ticked down yesterday, ending a six-day rally after some influential CEOs—including JPMorgan Chase’s Jamie Dimon—warned that markets have grown too complacent about tariffs and potential stagflation. But it was a spectacular day for Warby Parker, which climbed more than 15% after Google announced it’s partnering with the eyewear company on Google Glass (RIP) a new smart glasses device.
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Stagflation is the simultaneous appearance in an economy of slow growth, high unemployment, and rising prices.
Once thought by economists to be impossible, stagflation has occurred repeatedly in the developed world since the 1970s.
Policy solutions for slow growth tend to worsen inflation, and vice versa. That makes stagflation hard to fight.
Stagflation is the combination of high inflation, stagnant economic growth, and elevated unemployment.
The term stagflation, a blend of “stagnation” and “inflation,” was popularized by British politician Lain MacLeod in the 1960s, during a period of economic distress in the United Kingdom. It gained broader recognition in the 1970s after a series of global economic shocks, particularly the 1973 oil crisis, which disrupted supply chains and led to rising prices and slowing growth. Stagflation challenges traditional economic theories, which suggest that inflation and unemployment are inversely related, as depicted by the Phillips Curve.
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According to Wikipedia, stagflation presents a policy dilemma, as measures to curb inflation—such as tightening monetary policy—can exacerbate unemployment, while policies aimed at reducing unemployment may fuel inflation.
In economic theory, there are two main explanations for stagflation: supply shocks, such as a sharp increase in oil prices, and misguided government policies that hinder industrial output while expanding the money supply too rapidly.
NOTE: A portmanteau word or part of a word made by combining the spellings and meanings of two or more other words or word parts (such as smog from smoke and fog).
The stagflation of the 1970s led to a re-evaluation of Keynesian economic policies and contributed to the rise of alternative economic theories, including monetarism and supply-side economics.
Posted on May 5, 2025 by Dr. David Edward Marcinko MBA MEd CMP™
DEFINITION
By Staff Reporters
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Classic: Despite a wide variety of empirical methods and data sources, the demand for health care is consistently found to be price inelastic
Modern: If you are sick, you will not be very price sensitive. There are exceptions to this rule (e.g., elective surgery such as plastic surgery, purchases of eyeglasses) but most studies find that patients are fairly insensitive to changes in health care prices.
Examples: For instance, the RAND Health Insurance Experiment found that the price elasticity of medical expenditures is -0.2.
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The Medical Executive-Post is a news and information aggregator and social media professional network for medical and financial service professionals. Feel free to submit education content to the site as well as links, text posts, images, opinions and videos which are then voted up or down by other members. Comments and dialog are especially welcomed. Daily posts are organized by subject. ME-P administrators moderate the activity. Moderation may also conducted by community-specific moderators who are unpaid volunteers.
Financial Modeling is one of the most highly valued, but thinly understood, skills in financial analysis. The objective of financial modeling is to combine accounting, finance, and business metrics to create a forecast of a company’s future results.
According to Jeff Schmidt, a financial model is simply a spreadsheet, usually built in Microsoft Excel, that forecasts a business’s financial performance into the future. The forecast is typically based on the company’s historical performance and assumptions about the future and requires preparing an income statement, balance sheet, cash flow statement, and supporting schedules (known as a three-statement model, one of many types of approaches to financial statement modeling). From there, more advanced types of models can be built such as discounted cash flow analysis (DCF model), leveraged buyout (LBO), mergers and acquisitions (M&A), and sensitivity analysis
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DEFINED TERMS
Discounted Cash Flow (DCF): A valuation method used to estimate the value of an investment based on its expected future cash flows, adjusted for the time value of money. It’s like deciding whether a treasure chest is worth diving for now, based on the gold coins you’ll be able to cash in later.
Sensitivity Analysis: This involves changing one variable at a time to see how it affects an outcome. Imagine tweaking your coffee-to-water ratio each morning to achieve the perfect brew strength.
Budget – A budget is the amount of money a department, function, or business can spend in a given period of time. Usually, but not always, finance does this annually for the upcoming year.
Rolling Forecast – A rolling forecast maintains a consistent view over a period of time (often 12 months). When one period closes, finance adds one more period to the forecast.
Topside – A topside adjustment is an overlay to a forecast. This is typically completed by the corporate or headquarter team. As individual teams submit a forecast, the consolidated result might not make sense or align with expectations. When this occurs, the high-level teams use a topside adjustment to streamline or adjust the consolidated view.
Monte Carlo Simulation: Picture yourself at the casino, but instead of gambling your savings away, you’re using this technique to predict different outcomes of your business decisions based on random variables. It’s like playing financial roulette with the odds in your favor.
What-If Analysis: Ever daydream about what would happen if you took that leap of faith with your business? This tool allows you to explore various scenarios without risking a dime. It’s like trying on outfits in a virtual dressing room before making a purchase.
Leveraged Buyout (LBO) Model: This is a bit like orchestrating a heist, but legally. It’s about acquiring a company using borrowed money, with plans to pay off the debts with the company’s own cash flows. High stakes, high rewards.
Mergers and Acquisitions (M&A) Model: Picture two puzzle pieces coming together. This model evaluates how combining companies can create a new, more valuable entity. It’s the corporate version of a matchmaker.
Three Statement Model: The holy trinity of financial modeling, linking the income statement, balance sheet, and cash flow statement. It’s like weaving a tapestry where each thread is crucial to the overall picture.
Capital Asset Pricing Model (CAPM): A formula that calculates the expected return on an investment, considering its risk compared to the market. It’s like choosing the best roller coaster in the park, balancing thrill and safety.
Cash Flow Forecasting: This is your financial weather forecast, predicting the cash flow climate of your business. It helps you plan for sunny days and save for the rainy ones.
Cost of Capital: The price of financing your business, whether through debt or equity. It’s like the interest rate on your growth engine, pushing you to maximize every dollar invested.
Debt Schedule: A timeline of your business’s debts, showing when and how much you owe. It’s your roadmap to becoming debt-free, one milestone at a time.
Equity Valuation: Determining the value of a company’s shares. It’s like assessing the worth of a rare gemstone, ensuring investors pay a fair price for a piece of the treasure.
Financial Leverage: Using debt to amplify returns on investment. It’s like using a lever to lift a heavy object, increasing force but also risk.
Forecast Model: A crystal ball for your finances, projecting future performance based on past and present data. It’s your guide through the financial wilderness, helping you navigate with confidence.
Operating Model: A detailed blueprint of how a business generates value, mapping out operational activities and their financial impact. It’s like laying out the inner workings of a clock, ensuring every gear turns smoothly.
Revenue Growth Model: This tracks potential increases in sales over time, charting a course for expansion. It’s like plotting your ascent up a mountain, anticipating the effort required to reach the summit.
For years, I thought of cryptocurrency as a digital replacement for traditional money. After all, Bitcoin has “coin” right in the name. But let’s be honest: if Bitcoin is a currency, then my mother’s old Beanie Baby collection is a retirement fund.
A real currency needs to be stable. It should allow you to buy a coffee today without wondering whether, by tomorrow, that same amount could buy a car—or be worth nothing at all. Bitcoin and its kin like Ethereum and Dogecoin fail this test spectacularly.
Recently I have realized that cryptocurrency might be something even bigger and stranger than currency. It is not just digital money; it’s a bet on the huge global demand for financial autonomy.
In an age where every dollar is tracked, crypto offers an escape from traditional financial oversight. That makes it attractive not just to cybercriminals and tax evaders, but also to privacy advocates, speculators, and people living under restrictive financial policies. It doesn’t replace traditional money, it sidesteps it. It allows people to move, store, create, and destroy wealth outside of conventional banking systems. Some use it for transactions. Others see it as a hedge against inflation or a bet on the future of decentralized finance. Governments and banks don’t quite know what to do with it.
Crypto exists in a financial gray zone. It’s not widely accepted for everyday purchases, yet it can hold immense value. Unlike cash, which is limited by geography, or gold, which requires secure storage, crypto can be transferred globally in seconds. That’s part of its appeal, especially in countries with strict capital controls or volatile economies.
At the heart of cryptocurrency’s identity is the way it is produced. Crypto isn’t just a speculative asset—it’s an industrialized wealth-creation system. Imagine a massive warehouse filled with powerful computers “manufacturing” cryptocurrency. These mining operations exist solely to create new “coins” and process transactions, consuming enormous amounts of electricity in the process. The larger the operation, the more crypto it produces.
This is not how traditional currencies work. Fiat currencies are managed by central banks aiming for economic stability. Crypto, by contrast, is controlled by a decentralized network of miners and participants [block-chain]. Its supply is fixed, immune to government intervention. Some see this as a weakness. Others argue it is crypto’s greatest strength.
As Bitcoin and other major cryptocurrencies become more integrated into mainstream finance, the risks evolve. Even as regulators warn about crypto’s role in illicit activity, major corporations and investment firms are offering crypto-backed products. Some politicians, including President Trump, are discussing national Bitcoin reserves. This growing legitimacy makes crypto harder to ignore. But if crypto-backed funds become widespread, a crash could ripple far beyond crypto traders. That said, crypto remains a small fraction of global finance. Unless institutional adoption grows significantly, even a major downturn likely wouldn’t trigger systemic collapse.
Crypto’s increasing presence in finance does not make it a sound retirement investment. It is still a speculation. And speculations—whether in Bitcoin, meme stocks, or dot-com startups—are high-risk and not suitable for long-term financial security. Retirement portfolios should be built on diversification, stability, and predictable returns. Crypto offers none of these.
For years, I saw crypto as a failed currency. What I now think it to be is a decentralized speculative asset, driven by a growing demand to bypass traditional financial systems. Its future remains uncertain. As regulation increases and mainstream adoption expands, its role will continue to shift. But crypto is no longer just a niche experiment. It has become a financial force that governments, institutions, and individuals must reckon with—whether they embrace it or try to control it.
Posted on March 25, 2025 by Dr. David Edward Marcinko MBA MEd CMP™
By Wikipedia and Staff Reporters
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Congestion pricing or congestion charges is a system of surcharging users of public goods that are subject to congestion through excess demand, such as through higher peak charges for use of bus services, electricity, railways, telephones, and road pricing to reduce traffic congestion; airlines and shipping companies may be charged higher fees for slots at airports and through canals at busy times. This pricing strategy regulates demand, making it possible to manage congestion without increasing supply.
According to the economic theory behind congestion pricing, the objective of this policy is to use the price mechanism to cover the social cost of an activity where users otherwise do not pay for the negative externalities they create (such as driving in a congested area during peak demand).
By setting a price on an over-consumed product, congestion pricing encourages the redistribution of the demand in space or in time, leading to more efficient outcomes.
Posted on March 17, 2025 by Dr. David Edward Marcinko MBA MEd CMP™
The Power of Attorney Mistake That Could Cost You Everything
By Rick Kahler CFP®
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Recently, reading a training manual on elder abuse, I was reminded of a financial risk that is often overlooked. One of the fastest and easiest ways to unravel your financial security is to have the wrong person gain control of your money.
The example in the manual mirrored a heartbreaking situation I once experienced with a long-term client. As her mental and physical health declined, this single woman moved into assisted living. Her newly designated power of attorney, a relative from out of town, took control of her financial affairs.
Almost immediately, without consulting us, the relative began making large withdrawals, closed her accounts, and transferred funds elsewhere. They challenged the financial plan, investments, and strategies we had established to safeguard the client’s financial security and provide for her long-term care. Even though their actions threatened the client’s wellbeing, we were powerless to stop them. Our only recourse was to report the behavior to the authorities.
This heartbreaking and frustrating experience underscored just how critical it is to be mindful when executing a Power of Attorney. Besides designating someone you trust, it is wise to build in safeguards to prevent even a well-meaning relative from inadvertently derailing a carefully constructed financial plan.
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One such safeguard is to include a financial advisor in your POA—as long as that person is a fee-only, fiduciary advisor with an obligation to act in your best interests. In many cases, advisors are hesitant to suggest this option because they are sensitive to the potential conflict of interest and do not want to appear self-serving. An unfortunate reality is that you should be cautious if an advisor, particularly one who sells products on commission, seems eager to be added to your POA.
Including your financial advisor in your POA does not mean you designate them as your agent to manage your affairs. Instead, you include a clause naming them as the professional of record you want your designated agent to continue working with. This creates continuity and accountability. It prevents your agent from replacing your advisor with someone who may be unfamiliar with your needs and goals, unqualified, or untrustworthy.
Your advisor might also recommend adding a secondary safeguard, such as naming an attorney or accountant to oversee the selection of a successor advisor in case your current advisor is unable to continue. This additional layer of protection ensures that the financial professionals guiding your portfolio remain aligned with your best interests. Taking these extra steps can save you—and your loved ones—from significant financial stress down the road.
Including safeguards in your POA is not about mistrusting your loved ones, but about equipping them with the right resources and support to act in your best interest. Financial management is complex, and it requires expertise that most people, even those with the best intentions, may not possess.
One of the hardest parts about planning for diminished financial capacity is the emotional aspect. No one likes to imagine a time when they might not be able to manage their own money. But in reality, taking steps now to protect your financial future is the ultimate act of control. It can help ensure that your wishes are respected and the financial foundation you’ve worked so hard to build remains intact.
Remember, too, that avoiding conversations often increases financial vulnerability. If you don’t have a POA or aren’t comfortable with what you do have, now is the time to bring it up with your advisor, attorney, or a trusted family member. These safeguards are about protecting yourself. They also support those you will rely on to care for you and your financial legacy,
Monetarism is the belief that changes in the money supply are the main determinant of changes in inflation, associated especially with Milton Friedman, an American economist. Cases of hyperinflation have indeed been associated with the rapid printing of money. But when governments adopted monetarist policies in the late 1970s and early 1980s, they found money supply hard to control and also struggled to decide which measure of money supply was best to target. Monetarist policies were abandoned in favor of inflation targeting.
Monetary financing is the direct financing of government spending by the central bank. This happened during the hyperinflation in Germany in 1923 and was thus regarded as anathema for a long period afterwards. As a result, some commentators viewed quantitative easing after the financial crisis of 2007-09 with great suspicion. Technically, however, QE is not monetary financing, because central banks only buy government bonds in the secondary market and because they pay interest on reserves (the money they create).
Monetary policy The use, normally by the central bank, of interest rates and other tools to try to influence the economy. Interest rates are raised when the bank is trying to control inflation and lowered when inflation is low and it is trying to revive the economy. The financial crisis of 2007-09 led central banks to face the zero lower bound. This prompted many of them to use a new tool, quantitative easing, which was designed to bring down long-term rates or bond yields.
I was having lunch with a close friend of mine. He mentioned that he had accumulated a significant sum of money and did not know what to do with it. It was sitting in bonds, and inflation was eating its purchasing power at a very rapid rate.
He is a dentist and had originally thought about expanding his business, but a shortage of labor and surging wages turned expanding into a risky and low-return investment. He complained that the stock market was extremely expensive. I agreed.*
He said that the only thing left was residential real estate. I pushed back. “What do you think will happen to the affordability of houses if – and most likely when – interest rates go up? Inflation is now 6%. I don’t know where it will be in a year or two, but what if it becomes a staple of the economy? Interest rates will not be where they are today. Even at 5% interest rates [I know, a number unimaginable today] houses become unaffordable to a significant portion of the population. Yes, borrowers’ incomes will be higher in nominal terms, but the impact of the doubling of interest rates on the cost of mortgages will be devastating to affordability.”
He rejoined, “But look at what happened to housing over the last twenty years. Housing prices have consistently increased, even despite the financial crisis.”
I agreed, but I qualified his statement: “Over the past twenty, actually thirty, years interest rates declined. I honestly don’t know where interest rates will be in the future. But probabilistically, knowing what we know now, the chances that they are going to be higher, much higher, are more likely than their staying low. Especially if you think that inflation will persist.”
We quickly shifted our conversation toward more meaningful topics, like kids.
It seems that every year I think we have finally reached the peak of crazy, only to be proven wrong the next year. The stock market and thus index funds, just like real estate, have only gone one way – up. Index funds became the blunt instrument of choice in an always-rising market. So far, this choice has paid off nicely.
The market is the most expensive it has ever been, and thus future returns of the market and index funds will be unexciting. (I am being gentle here.)
You don’t have to be a stock market junkie to notice the pervasive feeling of euphoria. But euphoria is a temporary, not a permanent emotion; and at least when it comes to the stock market, it is usually supplanted by despair. Market appreciation that was driven by expanding valuations was not a gift but a loan – the type of loan that must always be paid back with a high rate of interest.
I don’t know what straw will break the feeble back of this market or what will cause the music to stop (there, you got two analogies for the price of none). We are in an environment where there are very few good options. If you do nothing, your savings will be eaten away by inflation. If you do something, you find that most assets, including the stock market as a whole, are incredibly overvalued.
We are doing the only sensible thing that you can do today. We spend very little time thinking about straws or what will cause the music to stop or how overvalued the market is. We are focusing all our energy on patiently building a portfolio of high-quality, cash-generative, significantly undervalued businesses that have pricing power.
This has admittedly been less rewarding than taking risky bets on unimaginably expensive assets. It may lack the excitement of sinking money into the darlings you see in the news every day, but we hope that our stocks will look like rare gems when the euphoria condenses into despair. As we keep repeating in every letter, the market is insanely overvalued. Our portfolio is anything but – we don’t own “the market”.
*A question may arise:Why did I not tell my dentist friend to pick individual stocks? He runs a busy dental practice and wouldn’t have the time or the training to pick stocks.
Why didn’t I offer him our services? IMA manages all my and my family’s liquid assets, but I have a rule that I never (ever!) break – I don’t manage my friends’ money. I’ll help them as much as possible with free advice but will never have a professional relationship with them. I intentionally create a separation between my personal and professional lives. After a difficult day in the market, I want to be able to go for beers with friends and leave the market at the office.
Also, this simplifies my relationships with my friends. There is no ambiguity in our friendship.
In 1972, Nobel Laureate Kenneth J. Arrow, PhD shocked academe’ by identifying health economics as a separate and distinct field. Yet, the seemingly disparate insurance, tax, risk management and financial planning principles that he also studied are just now becoming transparent to some medical professionals and their financial advisors. Despite the fact that a basic, but hardly promoted premise of this new wave financial planning era, is imprecision.
Nevertheless, to informed cognoscenti like Certified Medical Planners™, the principles served as predecessors to the modern physician-focused financial advisory niche sector. In 2004, Arrow was selected as one of eight recipients of the National Medal of Science for his innovative views.
And now, as a long bull market may be over, and if the current “new-normal” prevails – meaning a 4.5% real annualized rate of return on equities and a 1.5% real rate on bonds – wealth accumulation for all may be reduced.
An Imprecise Science
There is a major variable, dominant in any marketplace that pushes an economy in a forward direction. It is called consumerism. This became apparent while waiting in a doctor’s office one recent afternoon.
Scenario:
The front office receptionist, who appeared to be about 21 years old, was breaking for lunch and her replacement, who appeared not much older, came over to assist. Realizing the propensity for a long wait, one was taken by the size of waiting room and the number of patients coming in and out of the office. [Americans consume healthcare and a lot of it]. There was another notable peculiarity. The sample prescription bags being carried out the door were no match for the bags under everyone’s eyes, including the doctor’s. The office staff was probably working overtime, if not two jobs, and the doctor was working harder and faster in a managed care system.
Assessment
Why? So they all could afford to buy and voraciously consume for their children and themselves. Americans indeed work longer hours than any other industrialized nation.
Conclusion
Finally, as women medical professionals entered the workforce in unprecedented numbers, the stock markets reached an all time high in 2025, even as money was spent at a feverish pace as the Federal Reserve pumped out money in inflammatory fashion.
SPEAKING: Dr. Marcinko will be speaking and lecturing, signing and opining, teaching and preaching, storming and performing at many locations throughout the USA this year! His tour of witty and serious pontifications may be scheduled on a planned or ad-hoc basis; for public or private meetings and gatherings; formally, informally, or over lunch or dinner. All medical societies, financial advisory firms or Broker-Dealers are encouraged to submit a RFP for speaking engagements: CONTACT: MarcinkoAdvisors@outlook.com
While in Omaha for the Berkshire Hathaway annual meeting one year, I participated in an investment panel hosted by a local chapter of the Young Presidents’ Organization. I had the privilege of sharing the stage with such industry giants as Tom Russo, a partner of Gardner Russo & Gardner (famous for knowing more about consumer stocks than the management that runs them), and Tom Gayner, president and CIO of Markel Corp., a specialty insurance company that on many levels resembles the Berkshire of 30 years ago.
We were asked how much time a value investor should spend on macro forecasting. Usually macro forecasting is frowned upon in the value investing community, and Berkshire CEO Warren Buffett has everything to do with that. He is famous for saying (and I am paraphrasing), “My decision making would not change even if I knew what the Federal Reserve will do with interest rates next month.” There is sound logic behind this: Forecasting the economy is incredibly difficult in the short run. The economy is not unlike a black box with hundreds of gauges on it that in the near term give you conflicting readings about what’s inside it.
For this reason macro forecasting was disapproved of by value investors, and for 20 years this attitude paid off. The economic climate was favorable, the stock market was in overdrive, price-earnings ratios were expanding. Macro did not matter — until the housing bubble and financial crisis. Value investors who had had their heads in the sand got annihilated.
Things in life often swing, pendulum-like, from one extreme to another. Right after a crisis every investor is a macro expert. It’s kind of hilarious: Investors who just a few years earlier didn’t even know the names of most economic indicators are now spitting them out in conversations as though they had absorbed them with their mother’s milk. So what should investors do — become macro experts or economic ignoramuses?
Believe it or not, there is a logical and, more important, a practical answer to this question. As an investor you want to spend very little time on forecasting the weather (that is, what the Fed will do with interest rates next month or the rate of growth of the economy). Weather forecasting, first of all, is not always accurate, but it will certainly consume a lot of time and energy, and the forecasts have a very finite shelf life. Yesterday’s weather is irrelevant today. As long as you own companies that can survive rain without catching pneumonia — even a few weeks of rain — weather forecasting is a waste of time. This is what Buffett was implying by saying he didn’t want to be a macro forecaster.
However, instead of being a weatherman (or weatherwoman), as an investor you want to pay serious attention to “climate change” — significant shifts in the global economy that can impact your portfolio. This is exactly what Buffett did over the past few decades — he was warning about the weak dollar because of trade-deficit imbalances (he even put on a trade that bet against the dollar). He also warned about derivatives — “weapons of mass destruction” — and tried to cleanse them from the portfolio of General Re (an insurance company Berkshire acquired) as fast as he could.
Posted on February 8, 2025 by Dr. David Edward Marcinko MBA MEd CMP™
By Staff Reporters
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What is a Trilemma?
A trilemma refers to a situation in which three options are available, but only two can be chosen at a time. It is a situation in economics and international finance in which all three possible options are difficult or nearly impossible to achieve. Unlike a dilemma, which has two options, a trilemma has three options, all of which cannot be selected at once.
Trilemma in Economics
The impossible trinity is an example of a trilemma in economics. In an impossible trinity, a country can’t have a fixed exchange rate, independent monetary policy, and free capital movement all at once. A country can achieve only two out of the three policy objectives.
The impossible trinity involves a third option as a trilemma constraint, which cannot be achieved with the selected two options. It means that the selection of any two options will make it necessary to sacrifice the third beneficial option. It is like a three-way trade-off.
Posted on February 7, 2025 by Dr. David Edward Marcinko MBA MEd CMP™
By Staff Reporters
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The Pygmalion Effect, also known as the Rosenthal Effect, is a fascinating psychological phenomenon where higher expectations lead to an increase in performance. This concept originated from a study conducted by Robert Rosenthal and Lenore Jacobson in the 1960s. They discovered that when teachers were led to believe that certain students were expected to perform better academically, those students indeed showed significant improvement.
Here’s a brief overview of how the Pygmalion Effect works:
Expectation Setting: When someone in a position of authority (like a teacher or manager) has high expectations for an individual, they often communicate these expectations through subtle cues.
Behavioral Changes: The individual receiving these cues tends to internalize the expectations and changes their behavior accordingly. They might become more motivated, put in more effort, and show greater persistence.
Performance Improvement: As a result of these behavioral changes, the individual’s performance improves, thereby fulfilling the initial high expectations.
This effect highlights the power of positive reinforcement and belief in someone’s potential. It underscores the importance of fostering a supportive and encouraging environment, whether in educational settings, workplaces, or personal relationships.
If you’re interested in applying the Pygmalion Effect in your life, consider these tips:
Set High, Yet Realistic Expectations: Believe in the potential of those around you and communicate your confidence in their abilities.
Provide Support and Resources: Ensure that individuals have the tools and support they need to meet these expectations.
Offer Positive Feedback: Regularly acknowledge and celebrate progress and achievements to reinforce positive behavior.
Remember, the Pygmalion Effect is a powerful reminder that our beliefs and expectations can significantly influence the outcomes we see in others.
Did you know that at MARCINKO & Associates, all medical colleagues throughout the United States may contact us when they are considering the sale, purchase, strategic operating improvement, merger, acquisition and/or other financial business or related personal financial planning transaction?
Our difference is “hard” knowledge and insider financial guidance that helps medical colleagues, nurses, private practitioners, clinics, ambulatory surgery, radiology and outpatient wound care centers realize their ultimate economic goals. This typically includes managerial and cost accounting, financial ratio analysis, fair market valuation business appraisals, business plan creation and personal financial planning.
Our “expert witness” business litigation support service and divorce mediation, arbitration, asset division, settlement and second opinion offerings are always available, as well.
And, our “soft” skill professional career guidance and mentoring center includes executive coaching, consulting and mentoring advisory programs for stressed, conflicted or burned-out physicians and medical practitioners.
Most importantly, our professional fees are reasonable and always transparent.
MARCINKO & Associates also serves universities, medical, business, graduate and nursing schools; physicians, dentists, podiatrists, optometrists and legal societies. This includes accountants, financial service providers, wealth and hedge fund managers, emerging entities, hospitals, CEOs and their BODs, the press, media and related organizations.
Posted on January 2, 2025 by Dr. David Edward Marcinko MBA MEd CMP™
By Staff Reporters
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Understanding the K-shaped Economy
According to Olivia Voltaggio, in a V-shaped economy, things go down but then bounce back for everyone. In a K-shaped economy, the overall economy might go down. Only some parts of it recover, while others keep struggling.
In a K-shaped economy, people’s financial situations vary widely. Not everyone faces the same struggles. Lenders and financial institutions need to be flexible with strategy. They need to understand the different challenges their customers are dealing with.
Navigate with caution: The gaps in economic recovery highlight the importance of taking a careful, strategic approach.
How did we end up with a K-shaped recovery in 2024?
Inflation-driven price increases seem to be getting more stable. But, they may not reach the goal set by the government until 2026. This has made things more expensive for regular families.
For example, people with student loan debt had to start paying it back in October 2023. This was after a pandemic-induced grace period. Student loan repayment made budgeting harder. Borrowers might need to spend more on average than expected. For young adults (Gen Z), it could be even more.
Finally, more people are using credit cards because things are getting more expensive. Some are struggling to pay their credit card bills on time.
Posted on December 31, 2024 by Dr. David Edward Marcinko MBA MEd CMP™
By Staff Reporters
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The Lucas Paradox occurs when capital is not flowing from developed countries to developing countries despite the fact that developing countries have lower levels of capital per worker, and therefore higher returns to capital.
According to Wikipedia, economic theory predicts that capital should flow from rich countries to poor countries, due to the effect of diminishing returns of capital. Poor countries have lower levels of capital per worker – which explains, in part, why they are poor. In poor countries, the scarcity of capital relative to labor should mean that the returns related to the infusion of capital are higher than in developed countries.
In response, savers in rich countries should look at poor countries as profitable places in which to invest. In reality, things do not seem to work that way. Surprisingly little capital flows from rich countries to poor countries. This puzzle was famously discussed in a paper by Robert Lucas PhD in 1990.
Posted on December 26, 2024 by Dr. David Edward Marcinko MBA MEd CMP™
DEFINITION
By Staff Reporters
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Bernard Mandeville’s Paradox represent actions that may be vicious to individuals may also benefit society as a whole.
Mandeville’s Paradox challenges traditional moral and economic assumptions about selfishness and virtue. It suggests that economic systems can thrive on individual self-interest, a concept that has influenced modern economic thought, particularly in the development of free-market ideologies.
Understanding this paradox is crucial for economists, policymakers, and philosophers as it complicates the evaluation of behaviors and policies based solely on their perceived moral qualities. It invites a complex analysis of how individual actions, regardless of their intentions, contribute to the broader welfare of society.
Posted on December 21, 2024 by Dr. David Edward Marcinko MBA MEd CMP™
By Staff Reporters
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Metzler’s Paradox is the imposition of a tariff [tax] on imports that may reduce the relative internal price of that good.
It was proposed by Lloyd Metzler PhD in 1949 upon examination of tariffs within the Heckscher-Ohlin Model. The paradox has roughly the same status as immiserizing growth and a transfer that makes the recipient worse off.
Posted on December 19, 2024 by Dr. David Edward Marcinko MBA MEd CMP™
By Staff Reporters
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Demographic-Economics Paradox Definition: A nations or sub-populations with higher GDP per capita are observed to have fewer children, even though a richer population can support more children. Dr. Herwig Birg has called this inverse relationship between income and fertility a “demo-economic paradox”.
Why? Evolutionary biology predicts that more successful individuals (and by analogy countries) should seek to develop optimum conditions for their life and reproduction.
However, in the last half of the 20th century it has become clear that the economic success of developed countries is being counterbalanced by a demographic failure, a sub-replacement fertility that may prove destructive for their future economies and societies.
The Rule of 20 is a dimensionless number that adds the current 12-month trailing Price to Earnings Ratio to the annual change in an index of the annual consumer inflation rate. A reading below 20, while a market is trending lower, means that we could be near a bottom.
In the United States, the most common index used is the broad-based S&P 500, and CPI-U is used as a proxy for inflation.
The Rule of 20 is purportedly a rule from Peter Lynch. In chapter 39 of Graham and Dodd’s seminal Security Analysis, they mention: “We would suggest that about 20 times average earnings is as high a price as can be paid in an investment purchase of a common stock” … with no mention of inflation.
Lynch’s formulation attempts to factor the ‘gravity’ of interest rates into the fair value of a stock. And, as you can see, the measure has fluctuated quite a bit. However, it has returned to roughly the 20 level repeatedly.
Posted on December 11, 2024 by Dr. David Edward Marcinko MBA MEd CMP™
MEDICAL EXECUTIVE-POST–TODAY’SNEWSLETTERBRIEFING
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Essays, Opinions and Curated News in Health Economics, Investing, Business, Management and Financial Planning for Physician Entrepreneurs and their Savvy Advisors and Consultants
“Serving Almost One Million Doctors, Financial Advisors and Medical Management Consultants Daily“
A Partner of the Institute of Medical Business Advisors , Inc.
According to reporting from the Wall Street Journal, the pharmacy chain Walgreen’s is discussing selling to private equity (PE) firm Sycamore Partners, a deal that could close early next year. This comes following a tumultuous year for the company, which announced it would close 1,200 stores in October and laid off more than 250 employees in November. The PE firm is allegedly considering selling off pieces of the business or working with partners, sources told the Journal. Following the news, Walgreens’s stock jumped 28%, its biggest single-day increase since 1980, according to Yahoo Finance.
Inflation rose 2.7% on an annual basis in November, according to the latest government report on the Consumer Price Index, or CPI. Last month’s CPI was forecast to come in at 2.7%, according to economists surveyed by financial data firm FactSet. The Consumer Price Index, a basket of goods and services typically bought by consumers, tracks the change in those prices over time.
US stocks opened higher on Wednesday as investors digested another month of sticky inflation data that met economists’ expectations and likely pointed to a Federal Reserve interest rate cut next week. The Dow Jones Industrial Average (^DJI) increased about 0.2%, while the S&P 500 (^GSPC) jumped nearly 0.5%. The tech-heavy NASDAQ Composite (^IXIC) also added to across-the-board gains, rising roughly 0.8%.
Swaps (a.k.a. swap agreements) are two-party contracts entered into primarily by institutional investors for periods ranging from a few weeks to more than one year.
In a standard “swap” transaction, two parties agree to exchange the returns (or differentials in rates of return) earned or realized on particular predetermined investments or instruments. The gross returns to be exchanged or “swapped” between the parties are generally calculated with respect to a “notional amount,” i.e., the return on or increase in value of a particular dollar amount invested at a particular interest rate, in a particular foreign currency, or in a “basket” of securities representing a particular index.
Forms of swap agreements include interestrate swaps (under which fixed- or floating-rate interest payments on a specific principal amount are exchanged) and total return swaps (under which one party agrees to pay the other the total return of a defined underlying asset in exchange for fee payments).
In addition, credit default swaps enable an investor to buy/sell protection against a credit event of a specific issuer. The seller of credit protection against a security or basket of securities receives an up-front or periodic payment to compensate against potential default(s).
Posted on December 1, 2024 by Dr. David Edward Marcinko MBA MEd CMP™
AUSTRIAN SCHOOL OF ECONOMICS
By Staff Reporters
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A Paradox is a logicalself-contradictory statement or a statement that runs contrary to one’s expectation. It is a statement that, despite apparently valid reasoning from true or apparently true premises, leads to a seemingly self-contradictory or a logically unacceptable conclusion. A paradox usually involves contradictory-yet-interrelated elements that exist simultaneously and persist over time. They result in “persistent contradiction between interdependent elements” leading to a lasting “unity of opposites”.
Here are five economic paradoxes from the Austrian School of Economics.
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Prosperity: Why do generations that significantly improve the economic climate seem to generally rear a successor generation that consumes rather than produces?
Thrift: If everyone saves more money during times of recession, then aggregate demand will fall and will in turn lower total savings in the population.
Toil: If everyone tries to work during times of recession, lower wages will reduce prices, leading to more deflationary expectations, leading to further thrift, reducing demand and thereby reducing employment.
Value: [also known as Diamond-Water Paradox]: Water is more useful than diamonds, yet is a lot cheaper.
Productivity: [also known as Solow Computer Paradox]: Worker productivity may go down, despite technological improvements.
Note: The Austrian School of Economics promotes an economic and social thinking that is not trapped in unrealistic, mostly mathematical models. It does not see the economy as an object of state political regulation and central, almost engineering-like control. Rather, its analysis focuses on autonomous entrepreneurial action and the free interaction of individuals in the marketplace, which eludes both the logic of differential equations, and centrally planned political control.
According to Wikipedia, a fundamental tenet of the paradox is that the customer, i.e. the potential purchaser of the information describing a technology (or other information having some value, such as facts), wants to know the technology and what it does in sufficient detail as to understand its capabilities or have information about the facts or products to decide whether or not to buy it. Once the customer has this detailed knowledge, however, the seller has in effect transferred the technology to the customer without any compensation. This has been argued to show the need for patent protection [HIPPA].
If the buyer trusts the seller or is protected via contract, then they only need to know the results that the technology will provide, along with any caveats for its usage in a given context. A problem is that sellers lie, they may be mistaken, one or both sides overlook side consequences for usage in a given context, or some unknown-unknown affects the actual outcome.
Posted on October 17, 2024 by Dr. David Edward Marcinko MBA MEd CMP™
By Staff Reporters
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Authors of the seminal textbook Why Nations Fail, Daron Acemoglu, James Robinson, and former International Monetary Fund chief economist Simon Johnson will split the roughly $1 million cash prize for their research, which found a link between a country’s prosperity and the institutions it established during European colonization.
Places developed either “inclusive” or “extractive” institutions based on population density. The former allowed for inclusive governance (i.e., democracy), while the latter extracted resources to benefit a small group of elites.
Countries that developed inclusive institutions have experienced long-term prosperity; those with exclusive institutions haven’t. “Broadly speaking, the work that we have done favors democracy,” Acemoglu said.
Eample: In the twin cities of Nogales, on the US-Mexico border, the north and south parts of the transborder city have the same climate and the same resources, but the section in the US is far richer because of the country’s institutions, according to the researchers.
Critics. Some academics argue the Nobel winners’ premise ignores the effects of culture on prosperity. Others point to an irrefutable counterexample: China continues to experience explosive growth despite having an autocratic government.
Posted on October 3, 2024 by Dr. David Edward Marcinko MBA MEd CMP™
NEBULOUS DEFINITIONS
By Staff Reporters
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The simplest model of a market involves two things, supply and demand, and the price and quantity of the goods sold in the market are a function of both. When a natural disaster hits like Hurricane Helene, the immediate effect can be two-fold. In such situations, it is not unusual that the demand for certain products may increase. For example, if everyone is trying to leave the area, demand for gas may rise. The other effect is that supply for certain products may decrease. And, it may be more costly to transport gas in areas affected by a natural disaster, thus decreasing the supply of gas and in turn, increasing the price.
When supply decreases, the price of the good increases. And when demand increases, again the price of the good increases. So we would predict that the market price of gas, for example, would increase in areas recently affected by a hurricane. And in fact we do see this.
Price-gouging occurs when companies raise prices to unfair levels. There is no rule for what qualifies as price-gouging, but it is not an uncommon occurrence. For example in medicine, EpiPen costs is a current example of price increases that have been labeled unfair.
Note: An epinephrine auto-injector (or adrenaline auto-injector, also known by the trade mark EpiPen) is a medical device for injecting a measured dose or doses of epinephrine (adrenaline) by means of auto-injector technology. It is most often used for the treatment of anaphylaxis. The first epinephrine auto-injector was brought to market in 1983.
Dr. Michel Accad is a practicing cardiologist who blogs for a medical audience at alertandoriented.com
Conclusion
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OUR OTHER PRINT BOOKS AND RELATED INFORMATION SOURCES:
Did you know that at MARCINKO & Associates, all medical colleagues throughout the United States may contact us when they are considering the sale, purchase, strategic operating improvement, merger, acquisition and/or other financial business or related personal financial planning transaction?
Our difference is “hard” knowledge and insider financial guidance that helps medical colleagues, nurses, private practitioners, clinics, ambulatory surgery, radiology and outpatient wound care centers realize their ultimate economic goals. This typically includes managerial and cost accounting, financial ratio analysis, fair market valuation business appraisals, business plan creation and personal financial planning.
Our “expert witness” business litigation support service and divorce mediation, arbitration, asset division, settlement and second opinion offerings are always available, as well.
And, our “soft” skill professional career guidance and mentoring center includes executive coaching, consulting and mentoring advisory programs for stressed, conflicted or burned-out physicians and medical practitioners.
Most importantly, our professional fees are reasonable and always transparent.
MARCINKO & Associates also serves universities, medical, business, graduate and nursing schools; physicians, dentists, podiatrists, optometrists and legal societies. This includes accountants, financial service providers, wealth and hedge fund managers, emerging entities, hospitals, CEOs and their BODs, the press, media and related organizations.
Check back periodically for practical updates. Our catalogue library of major books, texts, case models and dictionaries is suggested for additional financial, economic, business and medical practice management information and education.
A hedge fund in the United States is generally a limited partnership providing a limited number of qualified investors with access to general partner investment decisions with little restriction in the type of investments or use of leverage. While the flexibility available to a hedge fund from a regulatory standpoint implies a high degree of potential risk, there is a wide range of investment philosophies, strategies, security types and objectives captured under the broad title of hedge fund.
Thus, generalizations regarding the characteristics of hedge funds are even less appropriate than with mutual funds, and evaluation of the investment characteristics and merits of a hedge fund strategy must be on a case-by-case basis. Likewise, the cost structure of a hedge fund often includes a base management fee to the general partner plus a performance-based fee or percentage of the profits, and must be evaluated on a case-by-case basis.
Several different investment vehicles operate under the oversight of varying regulatory bodies which provide access to an investment-managers’ discretionary decisions. While each approach generally represents ownership of an underlying pool of securities, there is usually a great deal of flexibility for the manager to deviate from a specific asset class or investment approach. Also, the fee structure of each vehicle can vary greatly and be quite large once distribution fees and sales charges are taken into account.
Thus, it is important for a medical professional to remember the following:
1. Evaluate the features and costs of an investment vehicle carefully;
2. Consider the cash flows and valuations of the securities that the manager or management approach will focus on as if the investments were being made directly, and above all;
3. Read the prospectus or agreement carefully before making any investment.
Posted on May 11, 2024 by Dr. David Edward Marcinko MBA MEd CMP™
Economic Implications of Pain, Suffering and Imminent Death
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By Eric Bricker MD
Examples of Inelastic Demand in Healthcare Are: 1) Emergencies 2) Patented Medications for Diseases That Have No Other Alternative Drugs 3) Doctor Specialties Where the Patient Has No Choice in the Services Such As Radiologists, Anesthesiologists and Pathologists [RAP]
Posted on May 11, 2024 by Dr. David Edward Marcinko MBA MEd CMP™
About Frank Knight PhD
[By staff reporters]
In economics, Knightian uncertainty is a lack of any quantifiable knowledge about some possible occurrence, as opposed to the presence of quantifiable risk (e.g., that in statistical noise or a parameter’s confidence interval). The concept acknowledges some fundamental degree of ignorance, a limit to knowledge, and an essential unpredictability of future events.
“Uncertainty must be taken in a sense radically distinct from the familiar notion of Risk, from which it has never been properly separated…. The essential fact is that ‘risk’ means in some cases a quantity susceptible of measurement, while at other times it is something distinctly not of this character; and there are far-reaching and crucial differences in the bearings of the phenomena depending on which of the two is really present and operating…. It will appear that a measurable uncertainty, or ‘risk’ proper, as we shall use the term, is so far different from an unmeasurable one that it is not in effect an uncertainty at all.”
Posted on March 5, 2024 by Dr. David Edward Marcinko MBA MEd CMP™
The Goodhart Principle, and related
[By staff reporters]
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Goodhart’s law is a sociological analogue of Heisenberg’s uncertainty principle in quantum mechanics. Measuring a system usually disturbs it. The more precise the measurement, and the shorter its timescale, the greater the energy of the disturbance and the greater the unpredictability of the outcome.
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CAMPBELL’S LAW:
“The more any quantitative social indicator is used for social decision-making, the more subject it will be to corruption pressures and the more apt it will be to distort and corrupt the social processes it is intended to monitor.”
Informational essays of most current interest to healthcare professionals. Check back periodically for practical updates. Our catalogue library of major books, texts, case models and dictionaries is suggested for additional financial, economic, business and medical practice management information and education.
Shopping data reveals that Q4 isn’t as important as one might expect. For example, the holiday quarter in 2022 accounted for 26.8% of the year’s sales, just a hair over the 25% mark if sales were evenly spread across the year, per the US Census Bureau. Of course, some types of retailers depend on the holiday quarter far more than others. Discretionary retailers (which sell the things you want, but don’t need…aka gifts) rely on Q4 for up to 40% of their yearly sales, according to McKinsey. For department stores, clothing stores, and toy stores, the holiday season really is make-or-break. GameStop, for instance, recorded 37% of its annual revenue last year in the last three months of 2022.
But for other retailers, Q4 isn’t such a big deal. People apparently read throughout the year because book stores only depend on the fourth quarter for 27.4% of sales. People also need to eat food all year long: Q4 accounted for 26.3% of sales for grocery stores.
Meanwhile, gas stations, car dealerships, and building material companies perform worse in the holiday quarter than at other times of the year.
The S&P 500 Index was 2.72 up points (0.1%) at 4,559.34, up 1% for the week; the Dow Jones Industrial Average®(DJI) was up 117.12 points (0.3%) at 35,390.15, up 1.3% for the week; the NASDAQ Composite was down 15.00 points (0.1%) at 14,250.85, up 0.9% for the week.
The 10-year Treasury note yield (TNX) was up about 5 basis points at 4.47%.
CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) was down 0.34 at 12.46.
Did you know that at MARCINKO & Associates, all medical colleagues throughout the United States may contact us when they are considering the sale, purchase, strategic operating improvement, merger, acquisition and/or other financial business or related personal financial planning transaction?
Our difference is “hard” knowledge and insider financial guidance that helps medical colleagues, nurses, private practitioners, clinics, ambulatory surgery, radiology and outpatient wound care centers realize their ultimate economic goals. This typically includes managerial and cost accounting, financial ratio analysis, fair market valuation business appraisals, business plan creation and personal financial planning.
Our “expert witness” business litigation support service and divorce mediation, arbitration, asset division, settlement and second opinion offerings are always available, as well.
And, our “soft” skill professional career guidance and mentoring center includes executive coaching, consulting and mentoring advisory programs for stressed, conflicted or burned-out physicians and medical practitioners.
Most importantly, our professional fees are reasonable and always transparent.
MARCINKO & Associates also serves universities, medical, business, graduate and nursing schools; physicians, dentists, podiatrists, optometrists and legal societies. This includes accountants, financial service providers, wealth and hedge fund managers, emerging entities, hospitals, CEOs and their BODs, the press, media and related organizations.
Did you know that at MARCINKO & Associates, all medical colleagues throughout the United States may contact us when they are considering the sale, purchase, strategic operating improvement, merger, acquisition and/or other financial business or related personal financial planning transaction?
Our difference is “hard” knowledge and insider financial guidance that helps medical colleagues, nurses, private practitioners, clinics, ambulatory surgery, radiology and outpatient wound care centers realize their ultimate economic goals. This typically includes managerial and cost accounting, financial ratio analysis, fair market valuation business appraisals, business plan creation and personal financial planning.
Our “expert witness” business litigation support service and divorce mediation, arbitration, asset division, settlement and second opinion offerings are always available, as well.
And, our “soft” skill professional career guidance and mentoring center includes executive coaching, consulting and mentoring advisory programs for stressed, conflicted or burned-out physicians and medical practitioners.
Most importantly, our professional fees are reasonable and always transparent.
MARCINKO & Associates also serves universities, medical, business, graduate and nursing schools; physicians, dentists, podiatrists, optometrists and legal societies. This includes accountants, financial service providers, wealth and hedge fund managers, emerging entities, hospitals, CEOs and their BODs, the press, media and related organizations.
Posted on August 18, 2023 by Dr. David Edward Marcinko MBA MEd CMP™
By Staff Reporters
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Stat: 0.7%. That’s how much retail sales grew last month, a sign that inflation isn’t dampening consumer spending or demand. (CNBC)
Quote:“This is pure market economics. We do not magically have thousands of additional AI developers, product managers, and everything else.”—Paul J. Groce, partner and head of the Americas at recruitment firm Leathwaite, on how a talent shortage is driving up wages for AI positions. (the Wall Street Journal)
Read: The teetering company threatening China’s economy. (the New York Times)
In more than 118,000 real transactions at the university bookstore, buyers tended to slap their plastic on the counter for school supplies but pay with cash for “harder-to-justify” items like a stuffed plush mascot. And when asked how they’d pay for a hypothetical Reiki session, participants leaned toward credit card when the treatment was described as doctor-recommended but toward cash when they were told it was just an impulse purchase.
Posted on April 28, 2023 by Dr. David Edward Marcinko MBA MEd CMP™
By Staff Reporters
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Economy: The US economy entered a 12 mph zone last quarter, slowing to an annual growth rate of 1.1% (short of estimates). While the growth figures were discouraging and a consequence of the Fed’s interest rate hikes, economists found some bright spots! It seems that consumers won’t stop shopping, resulting in a 3.7% increase in consumer spending. Still, some are waiting on that recession?
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So – Here’s where the key indexes settled yesterday.
The S&P 500 Index was up 79.36 (2%) at 4135.35; the Dow Jones industrial average was up 524.29 (1.6%) at 33,826.16; the NASDAQ Composite was up 287.89 (2.4%) at 12,142.24.
The 10-year Treasury yield was up about 9 basis points at 3.524%.
CBOE’s Volatility Index was down 1.90 at 16.94.
Small-cap companies, which tend to struggle more when economic growth stalls, remained at the back of the pack, with the Russell 2000 up slightly over 1%.
The energy sector continued to rank among the weakest-performing sectors, as crude oil futures continued trading near lows for the month.
Treasury yields jumped to one-week highs after the first-quarter gross domestic product (GDP) report showed inflation remained elevated.
Posted on February 25, 2023 by Dr. David Edward Marcinko MBA MEd CMP™
By Staff Reporters
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According to Bloomberg, former Treasury Secretary Lawrence Summers said worrying signals of a potential sharp drop-off in activity combined with strength in other indicators point toward an uncertain economic outlook.
Here is Why:
Inventories “look to be building up relative to sales.”Companies are “reporting concerns about their order books.”The business sector appears to have a high payroll head-count relative to “the level of output they’re producing.”“Consumer savings are being depleted, with a low savings rate.” And, “there is stuff when you look down the road a bit that has to be substantially concerning about the Wile E. Coyote kind of moment,” reiterating his reference to the cartoon character that falls off a cliff.
Federal Reserve policymakers will need to “stay nimble and flexible” given the uncertainty, Summers said. The central bank should “resist the pressure to be giving strong signals about what it’s going to do next.”
Finally, the former Treasury chief also reiterated the lack of past examples in which the US managed to avoid a recession when the unemployment rate dropped below 4% and inflation went above 4%. “That’s a powerful historical truth and I think it’s one that’s relevant to our current situation.”
The latest unemployment-rate reading was 3.4%, while the consumer price index climbed 6.4% in January on a year-on-year basis.
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Stocks Fell Following Hot Inflation Report and U.S. equities ended the day and week lower as the markets reacted to a Fed-favored gauge of inflation that came in hotter-than-expected. PCE and Core PCE Price Indexes rose more than anticipated, while personal income increased less than expected, and spending jumped. The moves came as equities have shown some volatility amid festering uncertainty regarding the ultimate economic impact of aggressive global central bank tightening as a result of persistent inflation. In other economic news, new home sales rose, and consumer sentiment was surprisingly revised the upside.
Treasury yields were higher, and the U.S. dollar gained ground, while crude oil prices increased, and gold traded to the downside. Q4 earnings season rounded a corner this week with some second-tier results hitting the tape, as Autodesk disappointed with its guidance and Intuit bested expectations, while Warner Bros. Discovery fell well short of forecasts.
In other equity news, shares of Boeing declined after the company paused delivery of its 787 Dreamliner planes. Asian stocks finished mixed, and markets in Europe fell, with economic data in the respective regions keeping the anxiety over future global monetary policy elevated.
Posted on October 20, 2022 by Dr. David Edward Marcinko MBA MEd CMP™
By Staff Reporters
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U.S. equities snapped a two-day winning streak, finishing lower as investors weighed a host of earnings and economic reports and eyed a noticeable rise in Treasury yields.
Housing data was in focus today, as mortgage applications declined last week, while housing starts fell more than anticipated, and building permits unexpectedly rose.
Equity news was headlined by positive earnings surprises, as Netflix and Dow member Proctor & Gamble both bested earnings expectations, despite citing the impacts of foreign exchange headwinds.
United Airlines also topped earnings estimates and expects the strong COVID-19 recovery trends to continue to overcome recessionary pressures.
Meanwhile, the U.S. dollar rallied amid weakness in the euro and British pound, while crude oil prices gained ground, and gold fell.
European stocks traded lower following hot inflation data out of the region. And, Asian markets closed out mixed in a quiet day as the markets continued to grapple with global monetary policy tightening concerns.
Posted on February 11, 2022 by Dr. David Edward Marcinko MBA MEd CMP™
What it Is – How it Works
By Staff Reporters
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DEFINITION: In classical economics, Say’s law, or the law of markets, is the claim that the production of a product creates demand for another product by providing something of value which can be exchanged for that other product. Thus, production is the source of demand.
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