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    Professor David Marcinko was a board certified surgical fellow, hospital medical staff President, public and population health advocate, and Chief Executive & Education Officer with more than 425 published papers; 5,150 op-ed pieces and over 135+ domestic / international presentations to his credit; including the top ten [10] biggest drug, DME and pharmaceutical companies and financial services firms in the nation. He is also a best-selling Amazon author with 30 published academic text books in four languages [National Institute of Health, Library of Congress and Library of Medicine].

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The “Halloween Indicator” [Investment Strategy]

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What it is – How it works?

[By staff reporters]

Sell in May and go away is an investment strategy for stocks based on a theory (sometimes known as the Halloween indicator) that the period from November to April inclusive has significantly stronger growth on average than the other months.

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“DANCE OF DEATH”

[Copyright 2018 iMBA Inc., All rights reserved. USA]

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The Strategy

In such strategies, stocks are sold at the start of May and the proceeds held in cash (e.g. a money market fund); stocks are bought again in the autumn, typically around Halloween. “Sell in May” can be characterised as the belief that it is better to avoid holding stock during the summer period.

Though this seasonality is often mentioned informally, it has largely been ignored in academic circles (perhaps being assumed to be a mere superstition). Nonetheless analysis by Bouman and Jacobsen (2002) shows that the effect has indeed occurred in 36 out of 37 countries examined, and since the 17th century (1694) in the United Kingdom; it is strongest in Europe. While the effect may reflect a failure of the efficient-market hypothesis, alternatives exist such as small sample size or time variation in expected stock market returns.

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halloween

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Causes the Effect

Although it’s not clear what causes the effect, what’s most interesting is that it shows that stock market returns in many countries during the period May–October are systematically negative or lower than the short-term interest rate, which also goes against the efficient-market hypothesis. Stock market returns should not be predictably lower than the short-term interest rate (risk free rate).

Popular media often refer to this market wisdom in the month of May, claiming that in the six months to come things will be different and the pattern will not show.

However, as the effect has been strongly present in most developed markets (including the United States, Canada, Japan, the United Kingdom and most European countries) in the last decade – especially May–October 2009 – these claims are often proved wrong.

That said, between April 30 and October 30, 2009, the FTSE 100 gained 20% (from 4,189.59 to 5,044.55)

Academics

The effect has largely been ignored in academic circles. The idea contradicts much established theory, especially the efficient-market hypothesis.

Maberly and Pierce extended the data to April 2003. They also tested the strategy for April 1982 through April 2003 except for two months, October 1987 and August 1998. They found that it doesn’t work well in the time period April 1982–September 1987 plus November 1987–July 1998 plus September 1998–April 2003.[7] Other regression models using the same data but controlling for extreme outliers have found the Halloween effect to still be significant.[8]

“Sell in May and go away” has persisted as a profitable market-timing strategy for stock investors, according to a follow-up study by Andrade, Chhaochharia and Fuerst (2012). They find that the Sell-in-May seasonal pattern persists after the end of Bouman and Jacobsen’s (2002) sample. This is important in showing that the Halloween effect is not a statistical fluke detected by data mining. Strikingly, in the 1998–2012 sample on average November–April returns are larger than May–October returns in all 37 markets they study. On average, the difference is equal to about 10% percentage points. Also strikingly, the magnitude of the difference is the same in Bouman and Jacobsen’s (2002) and in the out-of-sample analysis of Andrade, Chhaochharia and Fuerst (2012). Further backtesting by Mebane Faber has shown this effect has been in place since 1950.

Source: Sell in May Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

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BBmmXXC

http://www.msn.com/en-us/money/markets/best-6-months-for-stocks-could-be-right-around-the-corner/ar-BBmma2Y?li=AA4Zjn&ocid=U348DHP

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More: 

Even More:

Much More:

Assessment

Was this indicator appropriate for 2018?

Conclusion

Your thoughts and comments on this ME-P are appreciated. Feel free to review our top-left column, and top-right sidebar materials, links, URLs and related websites, too. Then, subscribe to the ME-P. It is fast, free and secure.

Speaker: If you need a moderator or speaker for an upcoming event, Dr. David E. Marcinko; MBA – Publisher-in-Chief of the Medical Executive-Post – is available for seminar or speaking engagements. Contact: MarcinkoAdvisors@msn.com

OUR OTHER PRINT BOOKS AND RELATED INFORMATION SOURCES:

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Five Ways to Protect Your Vehicle’s Exterior from Dings, Scrapes and Grime

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But, Don’t be Obsessive

By Dr. David Edward Marcinko MBA with Nalley Collision Center, GA.

DEM with JAGSome automobile owners, like me and other medical professionals, take pride in their cars. Regardless of whether you bought a new car from the showroom or bought your car used, you want to keep your vehicle looking like new for a long time.

Unfortunately, modern life is the enemy of a great-looking car. Tar and stones from roadways can wreak havoc on beautiful finishes. Other drivers can carelessly dent your car in hospital or mall parking lots, and refuse to accept responsibility for the damage. Debris flying out of trucks, birds, and other problems add to the long list of threats to your car.

The Steps

Rather than accepting dings, scrapes and grime on your car as a fact of life, follow these five steps to keep the exterior of your car looking fabulous.

1. Get Covered

Rain, snow, and sunshine can all adversely affect the exterior of your car. You can do little about the weather while driving your car, but when you get home, you can cover your car to protect its beautiful finish. Although garages offer the best protection against outside forces for your car, you might find out that you can get similar results by using a car port or a portable garage. A portable garage is a flexible cover that you can put over your vehicle to protect its exterior while not in use.

2. Paint Protection Film 

Special products exist that help protect the finish of your car at all times, even while you drive. Paint protection film creates a layer of protection between the exterior surfaces of your car and the environment, so your car can withstand an array of road hazards. This type of product eliminates expensive trips to your dealer’s body shop for touchup work and preserves the resale value of your car.

3. Wash Your Car

Although a carwash can put the exterior of your car in jeopardy, it can help prevent harmful grime build up. If you care a lot for your car, you will give it a loving hand-wash, detail and wax periodically to keep its finish looking great. While you wash, you can look for new scrapes and dents that either you or your dealer can quickly repair before they become ugly and embarrassing.

4. Cautious Parking

Parking lots pose some of the most severe threats to auto exteriors. It is my pet peeve. Regardless of how carefully you park, someone else will come along and park too close to your car, giving your car a free dent. Although often minor, parking-lot damage can cost a lot to repair. Motorists these days live with the fear that a claim will cause their insurance premiums to rise, so they might not take responsibility for denting or scraping your car.

It’s time to take parking into your own hands. You can try taking up two spots when you park, making it impossible for other car doors to reach your vehicle. Also, you can park far away from other cars where most people will never park. The long walk will give you valuable health benefits, and the remote parking spot can help prevent damage to your car.

5. Common Sense

Your best defense against scrapes, dents, and grime might reside under your own hat. Common sense should tell you to avoid roads while they undergo paving line-painting work. Avoid attempting to enter narrow alleys and resist the temptation to drive up to your mailbox when you get home at the end of the day. Never drive your car near trees and bushes. Always avoid dirt or gravel roads. Also, keep your garage and carport clear of tools and other objects that can easily fall and damage your car.

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Classic XJ-V8-WB Jaguar

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DE's Jaguar Touring Sedan

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Jaguar front seat

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My Jaguar's engine after a steam

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More

Conclusion

Your thoughts and comments on this ME-P are appreciated. Feel free to review our top-left column, and top-right sidebar materials, links, URLs and related websites, too. Then, subscribe to the ME-P. It is fast, free and secure.

Link: http://feeds.feedburner.com/HealthcareFinancialsthePostForcxos

Speaker: If you need a moderator or speaker for an upcoming event, Dr. David E. Marcinko; MBA – Publisher-in-Chief of the Medical Executive-Post – is available for seminar or speaking engagements. Contact: MarcinkoAdvisors@msn.com

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Not a Good Day for Domestic Capitalism

The Equity Markets

[August 14, 2019]

By staff reporters

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READ HERE

http://www.msn.com/en-us/money/markets/dow-closes-800-points-lower-in-worst-day-of-2019/ar-AAFzdHm?li=BBnbfcL

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Risk Management, Liability Insurance, and Asset Protection Strategies for Doctors and Advisors: Best Practices from Leading Consultants and Certified Medical Planners™8Comprehensive Financial Planning Strategies for Doctors and Advisors: Best Practices from Leading Consultants and Certified Medical Planners™

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The True Cost of Medication Non-Adherence

In the Modern Value-Based-Care Environment

By http://www.MCOL.com

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Arrest V. Attack V. Stroke

Matters of the Heart

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MORE: Have a “Heart”

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What Happens in an Internet Minute?

Circa 2019

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Product DetailsProduct DetailsProduct Details

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A Gallery of Famous Smokers

What is a Cigarette?

By staff reporters

A Narrow Cylinder

A cigarette, also known colloquially as a fag in British English, is a narrow cylinder containing psychoactive material, usually tobacco, that is rolled into thin paper for smoking. Most cigarettes contain a “reconstituted tobacco” product known as “sheet”, which consists of “recycled stems, stalks, scraps, collected dust, and floor sweepings”, to which are added glue, chemicals and fillers; the product is then sprayed with nicotine that was extracted from the tobacco scraps, and shaped into curls.

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See the source image

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The cigarette is ignited at one end, causing it to smolder; the resulting smoke is orally inhaled via the opposite end. Most modern cigarettes are filtered, although this does not make them safer. Cigarette manufacturers have described cigarettes as a drug administration system for the delivery of nicotine in acceptable and attractive form. Cigarettes are addictive and cause cancer, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, heart disease, and other health problems.

LINK: http://www.jusonline.nl/smokers/gallery01.html

Conclusion: Your thoughts are appreciated.

Risk Management, Liability Insurance, and Asset Protection Strategies for Doctors and Advisors: Best Practices from Leading Consultants and Certified Medical Planners™8Comprehensive Financial Planning Strategies for Doctors and Advisors: Best Practices from Leading Consultants and Certified Medical Planners™

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