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DAILY UPDATE: Nouriel Roubini and John Carney Speak

Posted on April 3, 2023 by Dr. Marcinko

By Staff Reporters

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Nouriel Roubini says the economy is headed for a “doom loop”. That’s due to three stressors in the economy, which will leave the Fed unable to fight a recession. Roubini, who called the 2008 downturn, has long warned of imminent financial chaos. And, he has more dire words of warning for the economy.

“Dr. Doom” warned in a column this week that the US face a major financial crisis and the economy is entering what he calls a “doom loop”.

In an op-ed for Project Syndicate on Thursday, Roubini forecasted a coming cycle of economic pain, as the US struggling under both high inflation and high debt burdens. Those issues perpetuate each other, he said, warning of a recession and impending financial crisis that would only get worse the longer it dragged on.

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During an appearance on “Fox & Friends Weekend,” Breitbart economics editor John Carney warned that the dollar’s feeble valuation could be a “serious threat” to the U.S.’s crucial influence on the world stage.

RUSSIA, CHINA MAY BE PREPARING NEW GOLD-BACKED CURRENCY, BUT EXPERT ASSURES US DOLLAR ‘SAFEST’ CURRENCY TODAY

“”[It’s] not only a serious threat, I think it is inevitable. We went through three stages, as you said, after World War II. The U.S. was the biggest economy in the world. In the 1970s, global banking became basically dollar central. With the fall of the Soviet Union, the entire world, more or less, came under the domination of the U.S dollar…”

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RECESSION: Healthcare Industry Layoffs

Posted on February 5, 2023 by Dr. Marcinko

Not even the healthcare industry is recession-proof

By Staff Reporters

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According to Kristine White of Healthcare Brew, New York City-based Memorial Sloan Kettering Cancer Center (MSK), one of the country’s top cancer treatment facilities, laid off 337 employees on Jan. 17 in response to ongoing financial challenges, according to a New York State Department of Labor filing.

The 337 employees, who worked across 14 sites and in multiple departments, represent about 1.5% of MSK’s 22,500 employees. This is a slight decrease from the expected 3% of layoffs announced in November 2022.

“This reduction was necessary to ensure that MSK can continue to invest in the future of cancer care, research, and education for the benefit of generations to come, and every effort has been made to ensure that patient care is not impacted,” spokesperson John Connolly said in a statement shared with Healthcare Brew.

The institution’s operating losses totaled $116.1 million for Q3 of 2022, compared to a loss of $8.7 million during the same period in 2021, according to a quarterly financial report released in November last year.

Factors such as increased patient activity, wages, and supply costs from inflation pushed the system’s operating expenses up by 7.5% from Q3 of 2021 to Q3 of 2022. The cancer center hired more staff in 2022 with the expectation that patient volume would increase, according to the financial report.

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Health systems like MSK often reevaluate their biggest expense (workers) when business is down, Lori Kalic, a healthcare senior analyst at consulting firm RSM, told Healthcare Brew.

Just this year, multiple hospitals and health systems have also announced layoffs, including Tufts Medicine in Boston and Integris Health in Oklahoma, according to White.

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Recession OR Not … You Decide?

Posted on January 4, 2023 by Dr. Marcinko

A ME-P Reader Opinion Poll

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DEFINITION: NBER defines a recession as “a significant decline in economic activity that is spread across the economy and that lasts more than a few months.” That definition encompasses a range of economic factor but is based on three main criteria: The depth, diffusion and duration of a downturn.

CITE: https://www.r2library.com/Resource/Title/082610254

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Former Federal Reserve Chair Alan Greenspan recently said a US recession is the “most likely outcome” in 2023 as the central bank tightens monetary policy to curb inflation.

So – Tell Us What You Think.

FELL FREE TO PONTIFICATE

LEAVE A COMMENT BELOW

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HAPPY NEW [Recessionary] YEAR 2023?

Posted on January 1, 2023 by Dr. Marcinko

By Staff Reporters

The Fed hikes interest rates, sending economy teetering toward a recession?

If everyone was an opinionated virologist in 2020, then 2022 turned us all into macro-economists. In an effort to fight historic inflation, the Fed raised its benchmark interest rate seven times this year, pushing it to a 15-year high. Chair Jerome Powell’s hawkish turn slowed the economy and was a major catalyst for the brutal sell-off in stocks, particularly in the tech sector. This year, Amazon became the first public company to lose $1 trillion in market value.

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EVEN HOUSING MARKETS DOWN

The U.S. housing market is experiencing its second-biggest home price correction of the post-World War II era. Macro Trends Advisors founding partner Mitch Roschelle attributed the massive correction to Americans’ uncertainty for the markets and their “uneasiness” regarding the economy. He explained on “Varney & Co.” that the “shoe to drop” would be if the nation starts to see a rise in unemployment, which could cause a “leg down” in the housing market.

Finis?

So what’s ahead for 2023? According to MorningBrew, Economists think that a recession is likely, but a few are holding out hope that the Fed can achieve a so-called “soft landing,” where it brings inflation down to normal levels without causing the economy to shrink. Recent months have brought cautiously hopeful news: Annual inflation has cooled from a peak of 9.1% to 7.1%, so rate hikes are expected to be much less aggressive next year.

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DAILY UPDATE: Recession Worries as Stocks are SLAMMED!

Posted on December 6, 2022 by Dr. Marcinko

By Staff Reporters

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Recession worries are firing up as the yield curve (a graph of US Treasury bond yields over time) takes on an increasingly negative slope, the likes of which we haven’t seen in 40 years. Near the last days of November, the yield on the 10-year T-bond dropped almost 0.8% below the two-year bond yield. Typically these metrics have the opposite relationship, and an aggressive inversion like this has been a pretty accurate indicator of an upcoming recession. Last time it was this bad in the ’80s, unemployment was worse than during the 2008 financial crisis.

And, a fw months after Microsoft announced plans to acquire the video game maker Activision Blizzard, the tech giant said it would remain neutral if Activision workers sought to unionize once the deal went through. Now, a major union is testing Microsoft’s appetite for organizing at a company it already owns.

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U.S. also stocks fell hard to start off the new week amid some economic data, even as China took further measures to ease COVID restrictions. The global markets digested a host of November services sector reports which suggested that activity around the globe is mostly slowing, but U.S. output surprisingly accelerated. The data seemed to foster uncertainty regarding how aggressive the Fed may be next week with its monetary policy decision.

In other economic news, factory orders grew at a faster pace than expected. Treasury yields gained ground, the U.S. dollar reversed to the upside, and gold prices saw noticeable pressure.

Crude oil prices dropped after OPEC+ left its production target unchanged, and new restrictions on Russian oil kicked in, including an imposed $60 per barrel price cap on Russian oil from the G-7.

Other equity news was relatively light, but Science Applications International topped earnings estimates, and raised its guidance, though V.F. Corp lowered its 2023 outlook.

Asian stocks finished mixed, but mainland China and Hong Kong markets rallied. European stocks diverged amid the eased COVID measures in China and with the oil markets in focus.

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DAILY UPDATE: About the ECONOMY & RECESSION?

Posted on October 23, 2022 by Dr. Marcinko

Forecasts Cognitive [Mental] Dissonance?

By Staff Reporters

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A Bloomberg economic model forecast a 100% chance of a US recession within 12 months

Jeff Bezos warned companies to “batten down the hatches” in response to Goldman Sachs’s CEO saying there’s a good chance we’ll have a recession.

Elon Musk guesstimated that we’re going to be in a recession “probably until spring of ’24.”

Gwyneth Paltrow said, “The economy sucks.”

BUT, Bank of America CEO Brian Moynihan (the one with the epic vocabulary) said that while analysts are warning of recession and slower spending, “We just don’t see [that] here at Bank of America.” Transaction volumes for its customers jumped 10% in September and the first half of October over a year earlier.

And, American Express’s CEO said, “We’re not seeing any changes in consumer spending” and predicted a strong holiday quarter for retail and travel.

United Airlines’s CEO is “so optimistic about 2023.”

Many business leaders are forecasting an economic downturn. But the execs who run travel and credit card companies say that shoppers aren’t pulling back spending at all.

It’s like Americans are watching the forecast call for thunderstorms but, seeing that it’s still sunny outside, are heading out to the waves to surf anyway.

Big picture: Recession fears are rising as the Fed raises interest rates to tame inflation that’s soaring at 40-year highs. While the definition of a recession is pretty broad, a slowdown in consumer spending would certainly be an indicator of one: It accounts for about 70% of the US economy.

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DAILY UPDATE: Equities, Treasuries, Crude Oil and BoA

Posted on October 18, 2022 by Dr. Marcinko

THE ECONOMY & RECESSION

By Staff Reporters

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U.S. equities rose noticeably in the first trading session of the week following the new U.K. finance minister’s announcement that the government would abandon nearly all its tax cut plans. The moves came amid hopes of some stabilization in the global bond and currency markets which have seen increased volatility in the wake of the initial proposal.

Treasury yields traded mixed, while the U.S. dollar fell amid strength in both the British pound and the euro.

Crude oil prices nudged lower, and gold traded slightly higher.

Bank of America shares rose as the company eclipsed quarterly expectations on a jump in net interest income, while Q3 earnings season is set to kick into a higher gear this week.

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Economy: This party may be busted by the cops. A US recession is a 100% certainty within the next 12 months, according to Bloomberg’s economic model.

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FOMC: May Keep Tightening Until a Recession!

Posted on October 1, 2022 by Dr. Marcinko

By Staff Reporters

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The FOMC just reiterated calls for aggressive policy to combat stubbornly high inflation—fueling expectations for bigger rate hikes amid a stock-market sell-off that’s seen major indexes hit new lows for the year—and some analysts project the losses could only deepen.

Expectations for rate hikes climbed amid the comments, with markets pricing in an end-of-year rate of 4.5%—above the 4.4% rate Fed officials projected earlier this month, which itself was one percentage point higher than the forecast in June.

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UPDATE: A Recession Looming?

Posted on September 16, 2022 by Dr. Marcinko

By Staff Reporters

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Wall Street ended sharply lower today extending its losses in late afternoon trading as a raft of economic data failed to alter the expected course of aggressive tightening by the Federal Reserve amid growing warnings of global recession. The sell-off gathered momentum toward the end of the session, with market leaders including Microsoft Corp, Apple Inc and Amazon.com Inc hitting the tech-laden NASDAQ hardest.

After the bell, FedEx Corp tumbled 14.5% after the package delivery company said its fiscal first-quarter results were hit by global volume softness and it withdrew its financial forecast, saying it expected further deterioration of business conditions. FedEx’s warning sent shares of rival United Parcel Service down 5.7% in extended trade.

Earlier, in the trading session, the benchmark S&P 500 closed a hair above 3,900, seen by many analysts as a key technical support level that has been tested several times over the past two weeks.

Interest rate-sensitive banks helped soften the blue-chip Dow’s decline.

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UPDATE: Recession, Goldman Sachs, and Tesla

Posted on August 5, 2022 by Dr. Marcinko

By Staff Reporters

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The director of the nonpartisan Congressional Budget Office [CBO] added his voice Thursday to those economists who say it’s unclear if the economy has hit a downturn, despite posting two straight quarterly drops in growth. “The U.S. economy shows signs of slowing, but whether the economy is currently in a recession is difficult to say,” wrote CBO Director Phillip Swagel in a letter to Sen. Lindsey Graham (R-S.C.). “It is possible that, in retrospect, it will become apparent that the economy moved into recession sometime this year. However, that is not clear from data that were available at the beginning of August,” Swagel added.

Goldman Sachs said its credit card unit is under investigation by the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau, a federal agency tasked with protecting Americans from financial abuse. In a securities filing, Goldman said the CFPB is examining a number of the company’s credit card account management practices, including refunds, resolving billing errors, advertisements and reporting to credit bureaus. And, in a statement to CBS MoneyWatch, Goldman said the bank “is cooperating with the CFPB on this matter.”

Finally, shares of electric vehicle maker Tesla rallied in after-hours trading as the company won shareholder approval for a 3:1 stock split, the second such move in two years, as the world’s most valuable automaker looks to make its stock more affordable.

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UPDATE: The Markets, Jim Rogers Speaks, and the Economy

Posted on August 2, 2022 by Dr. Marcinko

By Staff Reporters

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Stocks dipped at the start of August. The S&P 500 gave up an early gain to end down 11.7 points, or 0.3%, to close at 4,118.6. The Dow Jones Industrial Average dipped 46.7 points to 32,708, or 0.1%, and the tech-heavy NASDAQ fell 0.2%. Smaller company stocks also gave back some of their recent gains, nudging the Russell 2000 0.1% lower. Bond yields mostly fell. The yield on the 10-year Treasury, which influences mortgage rates, fell to 2.60% from 2.65% late Friday.

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Jim Rogers is bracing for an epic stock-market crash and a painful recession.
George Soros’ former partner sees the US dollar, energy, and agriculture as solid short-term bets.

Jim Rogers warned a historic stock-market crash is on the horizon, touted energy and agriculture as near-term winners, and cautioned that curbing inflation would require much higher interest rates during a recent Kitco News interview. Rogers is best known as the co-founder of Quantum Fund and Soros Fund Management. The veteran investor predicted a painful recession, ruled out bitcoin succeeding as a currency, and asserted that even a Russia-Ukraine peace deal wouldn’t prevent asset prices from eventually plunging.

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And now, some cautionary advice for workers worried about an economic downturn. “It will be mostly a white-collar recession. And the blue-collar recession will not be in the same places that we saw in the past.” That was William Lee, chief economist at the Milken Institute, a Santa Barbara, Calif.-based think tank, in an interview with MarketWatch, speculating on the nature of America’s next recession. Amid rising expectations among economists of a recession — commonly defined as two consecutive quarters of negative growth — Lee said there’s still a demand for blue-collar workers in service and manufacturing, which will help protect those workers if a recession hits. Even with a low unemployment rate of 3.6%, lower-income workers are always vulnerable in any economic downturn, but adding to comments he made on Bloomberg Radio earlier this week, Lee said there may be exceptions to that rule this time around.

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Finally, there’s an optimistic outlook considering June’s hot inflation reading of 9.1%, the fastest rise in prices in 41 years. It prompted another 75-point rate hike from the central bank last week, bringing the policy rate to 2.25%-2.5%. But there are signs the inflation fight is beginning to show results, Fundstrat said. July’s stock market performance was the strongest since November 2020, and inflation expectations have come down since July’s FOMC meeting.

The economy has entered a technical recession — but it could be just a growth scare, Fundstrat said.
Inflation expectations have flattened, and markets now see the policy rate peaking at 3.28% in January 2023.
It suggests that the stock market may not fall as sharply as some banks have predicted.

The economy entered a technical recession following the second straight quarterly decline for US GDP, but the market could be looking at a growth scare instead of a full blown recession and inflation should start falling sharply beginning with July’s reading, Fundstrat said in a note over the weekend.

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UPDATE: Recession Fears Perhaps? Maybe-Not!

Posted on July 29, 2022 by Dr. Marcinko

By Staff Reporters

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DEFINITION: For its official definition, the NBER considers a recession a “significant decline” in economic activity. Not only that—the decline must be deep, broad, and last for more than a few months. When deciding whether the economy is in a recession, the NBER looks to a variety of indicators (not just GDP) to understand the health of the economy, such as job growth, consumer spending, and industrial production. It’s not a simple or transparent formula.

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Top economists don’t believe a downturn has begun but some predict a mild recession is likely by early next year. For example, residential investment plunged last quarter as the housing market slumped amid sharply rising mortgage rates while business stockpiling and investment also declined, more than offsetting a modest advance in consumer spending. Furthermore, the nation’s gross domestic product, the value of all goods and services produced in the U.S., shrank at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 0.9% in the April-June period, according to the Commerce Department. That followed a 1.6% drop early this year. Economists surveyed by Bloomberg had forecast a 0.5% rise in GDP.

In fact, Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen also said the US economy is seeing an economic slowdown — something vital to bringing down inflation — but isn’t currently in a recession. “We do see a significant slowdown in growth,” Yellen said at a press conference. But a true recession is a “broad-based weakening of the economy,” she said. “That is not what we’re seeing right now.” The country currently is seeing job creation, strong household finances, gains in consumer spending and growth in business, Yellen said. Employment climbed by 1.1 million jobs in the second quarter, a sharp contrast with the average loss of 240,000 in the first three months of past recessions. The Treasury chief was speaking hours after data showed the US economy shrank for a second straight quarter, as higher interest rates slowed business investment and housing demand.

ON THE OTHER HAND: Yesterday was an amazing day for the stock market — especially for growth stocks. The Fed sparked a massive rally across all asset classes. It strongly implied it’ll slow the pace of rate hikes in the coming months. And it may even turn to rate cuts by the end of the year.

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UPDATE: The Markets, SPACs, Recession and Bezos, Musk & Zuckerberg

Posted on July 2, 2022 by Dr. Marcinko

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By Staff Reporters

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Markets: After their worst first half since 1970, stocks climbed to kick off the second half of the year, led by home building companies. But, the three major indexes posted weekly losses in four out of the last five weeks.
At least four SPAC mergers were called off in the 24 hours after the market closed, including one that would have taken Panera Brands public, according to Bloomberg. An index that tracks companies that went public via SPAC has plunged 67%. For the year to date, 30 proposed SPAC deals have been cancelled.

Recession: The Federal Reserve’s key real-time model for tracking U.S. economic activity has turned negative, signaling that the nation could already have entered a recession. The GDPNow gauge, a widely watched measurement from the Atlanta Federal Reserve Bank, indicated that real gross domestic product shrank by 1.0% in the second quarter from April through June, 2022. So, while the official advance estimate of Q2 performance will not be released for another month, this preliminary reading shows the second quarter in a row of negative growth in the economy after GDP contracted 1.6% in Q1.

And Jeff Bezos beat nemesis Elon Musk at—losing money. The Amazon founder’s net worth crashed by $63 billion in the first half of 2022, while Musk’s fell by $62 billion. All told, the 500 richest people in the world lost $1.4 trillion so far this year according to Bloomberg.

Finally, Mark Zuckerberg thinks he has more employees than he needs. He told Meta workers that the company would be “turning up the heat” on performance oversight in order to uncover the workers who just watch Netflix all day. “If I had to bet, I’d say that this might be one of the worst downturns that we’ve seen in recent history,” he said.

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UPDATE: A Recession with Opinions?

Posted on June 19, 2022 by Dr. Marcinko

By Staff Reporters

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Recession fears overtook the S&P 500 a day after the Fed meeting, reversing gains seen midweek.
The S&P 500 has been higher only 43.5% of all trading days in 2022, a gloomy marker, according to Bespoke Investment Group.
Meanwhile, it said the Fed is facing a “policy error” in focusing on headline inflation that’s swayed by high gas prices.

This year’s dismal performance in US equities worsened this week as a post-Fed rally fizzled and investors cemented the S&P 500 to one of its shabbiest mid-year showings in decades, all taking place with poor economic data piling up.

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Goldman Sachs’ President John Waldron admitted at a June 2 conference that this is “among—if not the most—complex, dynamic environments” that he’s ever experienced. As a result, investment banks and economists are split on what the most likely outcome will be for the U.S. economy moving forward. Deutsche Bank has argued since April that we’re headed for a “major” recession, but Morgan Stanley’s CEO James Gorman said on Monday the odds of even a minor recession are more like 50-50.

Bank of America believes we will most likely avoid a recession altogether and instead face “extended weakness,” while the economist and Nobel laureate Paul Krugman appeared to side with more optimistic Fed officials arguing that we could be headed for a ”goldilocks” scenario, where economic growth slows enough to cool inflation without instigating a recession.

HAPPY FATHER’S DAY 2022

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UPDATE: The Markets, Gasoline, Recession and the Bear

Posted on June 14, 2022 by Dr. Marcinko

By Staff Reporters

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For the domestic markets, the S&P 500 closed down 151 points, or 3.88%. It’s down nearly 22% since January. The Dow was down 876 points (2.79%) and the NASDAQ dropped 530 points (4.68%). And, investors were disappointed to learn that inflation is moving in the wrong direction. U.S. consumer prices surged 8.6% year-over-year in May, to a fresh 40-year high, led by higher prices for energy, food and housing.

For the first time in history, a gallon of regular gasoline now costs $5 on average nationwide, according to AAA, and experts predict gas prices could average $6 a gallon by August.

Moreover, nearly 70% of leading economists expect the US to tumble into a recession as the country grapples with inflation. In a Financial Times poll, the bulk of economists said they expect a recession to be declared in the first half of 2023. The poll comes after US inflation soared to 8.6% in May, outstripping economists’ expectations and piling the pressure on the Fed.

Finally, S&P Global says a 20% decline in the S&P 500 on a closing basis from its previous peak is all it takes to define a bear market. Which means that this bear market is already more than five months old, since the S&P 500 all-time high came on January 3rd, 2022.

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UPDATE: Vitalik Buterin, Recession Risk the Euro and BOA

Posted on May 23, 2022 by Dr. Marcinko

By Staff Reporters

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Vitalik Buterin tweeted Friday that he’s no longer a billionaire. Crypto has crashed in recent weeks amid a broad sell-off in traditional markets. Ethereum cofounder Vitalik Buterin tweeted Friday that he’s no longer a billionaire. Buterin, who cofounded the blockchain network in 2014, has seen its Ether token crash by 59% since hitting a high of around $4,800 in November 2021, when his holding was valued at around $1.5 billion.
Historically, the S&P 500 has fallen an average of 29% around recession (median of 24%). With the S&P 500 currently showing a peak-to-trough decline of almost 19%, the market is effectively already pricing in a 60%-75% chance of recession based on the average and median.
Thanks to a surging US dollar and a faltering Euro, many analysts expect that the two currencies could reach parity this year—meaning one dollar would fetch you one euro. The two currencies haven’t reached a 1:1 exchange rate since 2002, three years after the euro was introduced in an effort to bring stability to Europe. The euro closed at $1.057 against the dollar, just 5% above equal value with the US currency.
Finally, the current market plunge hasn’t yet scared investors like downturns in years past. Bank of America’s private clients are still dedicating 63% of their portfolios to stocks, compared to 39% after the 2008 financial crisis.

***

COMMENTS APPRECIATED

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***

Filed under: Breaking News, Glossary Terms, Investing | Tagged: blockchain, crypto, ether, euro, recession, recession risk, Vitalik Buterin | Leave a comment »

The Impact Of The U.S. Recession On Hospitals

Posted on January 15, 2013 by Dr. Marcinko

Drivers of Decline

Commercially insured scheduled admissions are the largest contributor to inpatient margins for the average US hospital. During the US recession (2009-2011), volumes in this segment declined. There were two primary drivers of this decline.

####

Dual Causes

First, commercial insurance coverage decreased, stemming from unemployment and underemployment. This is expected to reverse and rebound as the economy recovers and as healthcare reform is implemented.

Second, even among those who retained coverage, utilization of inpatient services decreased as patients delayed or forewent elective and preventative care. This was influenced by a range of economic factors, including reduced household incomes, higher co-pays, and a reduced ability to leave work for medical care, as well as factor unrelated to the recession, such as a shift to outpatient management of disease.

More: Are Cost Estimates Leading To The Wrong Decisions in US Hospitals?

Assessment

It is unclear whether this second driver will diminish fully as the economy recovers. A slow recovery – or one that fails to see volumes to return to pre-recession levels – suggests that hospitals may need to refocus their strategies on service lines and segments that have historically been less attractive.

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Conclusion

Your thoughts and comments on this ME-P are appreciated. Feel free to review our top-left column, and top-right sidebar materials, links, URLs and related websites, too. Then, subscribe to the ME-P. It is fast, free and secure.

Speaker: If you need a moderator or speaker for an upcoming event, Dr. David E. Marcinko; MBA – Publisher-in-Chief of the Medical Executive-Post – is available for seminar or speaking engagements. Contact: MarcinkoAdvisors@msn.com

OUR OTHER PRINT BOOKS AND RELATED INFORMATION SOURCES:

PRACTICES: www.BusinessofMedicalPractice.com
HOSPITALS: http://www.crcpress.com/product/isbn/9781466558731
CLINICS: http://www.crcpress.com/product/isbn/9781439879900
ADVISORS: www.CertifiedMedicalPlanner.org
FINANCE: Financial Planning for Physicians and Advisors
INSURANCE: Risk Management and Insurance Strategies for Physicians and Advisors
Dictionary of Health Economics and Finance
Dictionary of Health Information Technology and Security
Dictionary of Health Insurance and Managed Care

Filed under: Health Economics, Practice Management, Recommended Books, Retirement and Benefits | Tagged: hospitals, Hospitals and Healthcare Organizations, Impact Of The U.S. Recession On Hospitals, recession | 4 Comments »

Building Up to the Fiscal Cliff

Posted on December 30, 2012 by Dr. Marcinko

A Historic Review

Assessment

Doctors, FAs and all ME-P readers. What is your strategy for the fiscal cliff situation?

Conclusion

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Medical Risk Management: http://www.jbpub.com/catalog/9780763733421

Hospitals: http://www.crcpress.com/product/isbn/9781439879900

Physician Advisors: www.CertifiedMedicalPlanner.org

Filed under: Breaking News, Health Law & Policy, Insurance Matters | Tagged: DJIA, federal debt, Fiscal Cliff, GDP, iShares, ism, recession | 9 Comments »

What are the Prospects for US Recession? [A Voting and Opinion Poll]

Posted on October 6, 2011 by Dr. Marcinko

Is Wall Street Driving Main Street?

By Staff Reporters

Concern is high that the US economy may be close to or entering recession, yet the fundamentals lend little support to such a projection. There has been no decline in jobs, while corporate health is very strong.

So, the recession concerns appear to be driven more by the decline in stock prices than by economic developments.

IOW: Is Wall Street pessimism driving Main Street gloom?

What do you think? Please vote and be sure to add your comments below.

Conclusion

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Filed under: Breaking News, Glossary Terms, Voting Polls | Tagged: recession, recession types, Wall Street | 17 Comments »

Physician Investing and Management

Posted on August 4, 2009 by Dr. Marcinko

Completing your Portfolio

By Sean G. Todd, Esq; M. Tax, CFP^©, CPA

I hope this post finds all ME-P readers well. Last month I focused on tax efficiency, and the culinary arts. This month the focus is on completing your portfolio. The economy is going through some trials and tribulations as of late. The markets are hitting 2009 highs despite the continued rise in unemployment and continued strain in the residential and now what appears to be the next sector under strain – commercial real estate.

The Recession Has Ended?

As I have indicated before, I’m not convinced this recent rally is sustainable for several reasons. The investing environment is a bit different this time and I believe that we are still in what is now being labeled as the “Great Recession” despite reports that the “recession has ended”. Have you made adjustments to your portfolio? If not, let’s move to the real reason you continue to read these ME-Ps; to be able to make the right long-term decision during these difficult times. Last month I focused on the importance of Tax-Efficient Investing. This month let’s look at the importance of Completing Your Portfolio.

Diversification

We all understand that the best way to manage risk in your portfolio is to diversity your investments across multiple asset classes, styles, geographies and sectors. In doing so, you have to optimize the balance between risk and return.

Taxable Assets

Within your taxable accounts, it’s always a good idea to minimize the impact of tax consequences. But, are you taking the right steps to reduce the effect of the capital gains distribution often associated with traditional mutual funds? When it is time to reallocate the portfolio; be sure not to violate the 30-day wash sale rule.

Fixed Income Assets

Fixed income securities are a key component of many physicians’ well-diversified portfolios. When making an investment in fix income instruments, be sure to pay attention to duration and credit quality. You should be able to adjust a tolerable balance between credit quality and yield to achieve your investment objectives.

For example, be sure if you are investing in any fixed income funds they have the following three characteristics: 1) the fund is diversified, 2) the fund is transparent and 3) the fund is highly liquid.

Liquidity

Liquidity is the key during this volatile market and you should not be subject to any redemption fees associated with your investment. If a redemption fee is being imposed, I’m confident of a better alternative available to you.

UITs

What about a unit investment trust [UIT] investment? Here is one reason to shy away from them: they must deposit the income in a non-interest bearing account and distribute it periodically to the trust shareholders. This restriction results in a dividend cash drag, which can affect your investment return.

Bond Premiums

Have you recently been solicited by a broker to purchase an individual bond at a premium? If the bond is trading at a premium – then you are paying over the face amount for the bond. If you are investing in fixed instruments – wouldn’t it make sense to pay the market price and not a premium?

Conclusion

And so, your thoughts and comments on this Medical Executive-Post are appreciated. Tell us what you think? Feel free to review our top-left column, and top-right sidebar materials, links, URLs and related websites, too. Then, be sure to subscribe to the ME-P. It is fast, free and secure.

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Filed under: Alerts Sign-Up, Financial Planning, Investing, Portfolio Management, Taxation | Tagged: asset classes, bond discounts, bond premiums, bonds, fixed income investments, liquidity, Mutual Funds, porfolio management, recession, risk and retun, Sean Todd, tax efficient investing, taxable assets, UITs | Leave a comment »

Medical News of Arkansas Interviews Dr. Marcinko

Posted on April 1, 2009 by Dr. Marcinko

Current Status of Hospitals and the Economy [Op-Ed]

[By Steve Brawner]

What: An exclusive telephonic and email interview.

Who: Dr. David Edward Marcinko; FACFAS, MBA [Editor, administrator and health economist]

Topic: The recession and economy, hospital operations, and the Obama administration.

Where: The telephone and internet virtual ME-P ether.

Why: To forecast informed opinions and pontifications on the healthcare industrial complex.

Among the dilemmas in healthcare, we seek answers to queries like:

• When will the recession end, and how will it affect hospitals and physicians?
• What operations and organizational policies can hospitals pursue to survive?
• How will the Obama stimulus affect hospitals and healthcare organizations?

Now, in as much as this controversy affects patients, administrators, politicians, Wall Street, nurse-executives and physicians alike, we went right to the source for up-to-date information regarding this current topic.

Assessment

Get ready for this controversial [unedited] interview and Q-A session, with Dr. David Edward Marcinko; Publisher-in-Chief, of this ME-P.

Arkansas Medical News Interviews Dr. Marcinko

Read it Here: interview-dr-marcinko1

Sponsored Link: www.MedicalBusinessAdvisors.com

Conclusion

OUR OTHER PRINT BOOKS AND RELATED INFORMATION SOURCES:

PRACTICES: www.BusinessofMedicalPractice.com
HOSPITALS: http://www.crcpress.com/product/isbn/9781466558731
CLINICS: http://www.crcpress.com/product/isbn/9781439879900
ADVISORS: www.CertifiedMedicalPlanner.org
FINANCE: Financial Planning for Physicians and Advisors
INSURANCE: Risk Management and Insurance Strategies for Physicians and Advisors
Dictionary of Health Economics and Finance
Dictionary of Health Information Technology and Security
Dictionary of Health Insurance and Managed Care

[HOSPITAL OPERATIONS, ORGANIZATIONAL BEHAVIOR AND FINANCIAL MANAGEMENT COMPANION TEXTBOOK SET]

***

Filed under: "Advisors Only", "Ask-an-Advisor", "Doctors Only", Breaking News, Interviews, Point-Counter Point, Sponsors | Tagged: david marcinko, DO, doctors, DPM, economy, healthcare industrial complex, Healthcare Organizations, healthcare stakeholders, hospitals, MD, Medical News of Arkansas, obama, patients, recession, steve brawner, Wall Street | 5 Comments »

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