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CLAUDIA SAHM RULE: A Recession Indicator?

Posted on June 6, 2026 by Dr. David Edward Marcinko MBA MEd CMP™

By Staff Reporters

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In October 2024, Bloomberg economists predicted a 100% chance of a recession coming in the following 12 months. But it didn’t happen. And recently, Goldman Sachs lowered estimation of the odds of the economy tipping into a recession in the next year to 15%. The bank’s chief economist described that number as the “unconditional long-term average”—which means there’s no more chance of the economy tanking now than in any other normal conditions.

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In macroeconomics, the Sahm rule, or Sahm rule recession indicator, is a heuristic measure by the United States’ Federal Reserve for determining when an economy has entered a recession. It is useful in real-time evaluation of the business cycle and relies on monthly unemployment data from the Bureau of Labor Statistic (BLS). It is named after economist Claudia Sahm, formerly of the Federal Reserve and Council of Economic Advisors.

The Sahm rule states: When the three month moving average of the national unemployment rate is 0.5 percentage point or more above its low over the prior twelve months, we are in the early months of recession.

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Filed under: "Ask-an-Advisor", Accounting, Financial Planning, Glossary Terms, Investing | Tagged: Bloomberg, BLS, books, CEA, claudia, Claudia Sahm, Council Economic Advisers, Goldman Sachs, Marcinko, recession, recession indicator, Sahm Rule, sports, Technology | Leave a comment »

RECESSION: A Heightened Risk in 2026?

Posted on December 13, 2025 by Dr. David Edward Marcinko MBA MEd CMP™

By Dr. David Edward Marcinko MBA MEd

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SPONSOR: http://www.MarcinkoAssociates.com

The U.S. faces a heightened risk of recession in 2026, with economic indicators, expert forecasts, and global instability contributing to widespread concern. While some analysts remain cautiously optimistic, the probability of a downturn is significant.

The potential for a U.S. recession in 2026 is a topic of growing concern among economists, policymakers, and investors. According to UBS, the probability of a recession has surged to 93% based on hard data analysis, including employment trends, industrial production, and credit market signals. This alarming figure reflects a convergence of economic stressors that could culminate in a downturn by the end of 2026.

One of the most prominent warning signs is the inverted yield curve, a historically reliable predictor of recessions. When short-term interest rates exceed long-term rates, it suggests that investors expect weaker growth ahead. This inversion, coupled with elevated federal debt and persistent inflationary pressures, has led many analysts to forecast a slowdown in consumer spending and business investment.

Despite these concerns, some sectors—particularly artificial intelligence (AI)—are providing temporary buoyancy. The AI infrastructure boom has fueled GDP growth and market optimism, with global AI investment projected to reach $500 billion by 2026.

However, experts warn that this surge may be masking underlying economic fragility. If AI-driven investment slows, the economy could quickly lose momentum, revealing vulnerabilities in other sectors such as manufacturing and retail.

Global factors also play a critical role. Trade tensions, geopolitical instability, and fluctuating oil prices have created an unpredictable environment. The lingering effects of tariff pass-throughs and policy uncertainty are expected to intensify in 2026, further straining the U.S. economy. Additionally, speculative forecasts—like those from mystic Baba Vanga—have captured public imagination by predicting a “cash crush” that could disrupt both virtual and physical currency systems, although such claims lack empirical support. Not all forecasts are dire. Oxford Economics suggests that while growth will moderate, the U.S. may avoid a full-blown recession thanks to continued investment incentives and robust AI-related spending. Their above-consensus GDP forecast hinges on the assumption that business confidence remains stable and that fiscal policy supports non-AI sectors effectively.

Nevertheless, the risks are real and multifaceted. The Polymarket prediction platform currently estimates a 43% chance of a U.S. recession by the end of 2026, based on criteria such as two consecutive quarters of negative GDP growth or an official declaration by the National Bureau of Economic Research.

In conclusion, while the U.S. economy may continue to navigate “choppy waters,” the potential for a recession in 2026 is substantial. Policymakers must remain vigilant, balancing stimulus with fiscal discipline, and addressing structural weaknesses before temporary growth drivers fade.

The coming year will be pivotal in determining whether the U.S. can steer clear of recession or succumb to the mounting pressures.

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SPEAKING: Dr. Marcinko will be speaking and lecturing, signing and opining, teaching and preaching, storming and performing at many locations throughout the USA this year! His tour of witty and serious pontifications may be scheduled on a planned or ad-hoc basis; for public or private meetings and gatherings; formally, informally, or over lunch or dinner. All medical societies, financial advisory firms or Broker-Dealers are encouraged to submit an RFP for speaking engagements: CONTACT: Ann Miller RN MHA at MarcinkoAdvisors@outlook.com -OR- http://www.MarcinkoAssociates.com

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Filed under: "Ask-an-Advisor", economics, finance, Funding Basics, Glossary Terms, Investing, Portfolio Management | Tagged: AI, artificial heart, artificial intelligence, Baba Vanga, economics, economy, finance, GDP, Inverted yield curve, Investing, National Bureau Economic Research, NBER, Oxford economics, recession, UBS | Leave a comment »

BLACK MONDAY REDEUX: Interesting Day or Financial Crisis?

Posted on April 7, 2025 by Dr. David Edward Marcinko MBA MEd CMP™

BILL ACKMAN versus JIM KRAMER

By Staff Reporters

SPONSOR: http://www.CertifiedMedicalPlanner.org

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Interesting Day?

Markets: Last week’s market bloodbath will go down in the history books. The S&P 500’s 10% plunge on Thursday and Friday, after President Trump announced massive tariffs, ranks among the steepest two-day decline in the last 70 years, on par with Black Monday in 1987, the post-Lehman Brothers rout in 2008, and the Covid plunge in March 2020. More than $6 trillion was wiped out from stocks over two days, and the NASDAQ entered a bear market, down 20% from a previous high.

Trading restarted at 9:30 am ET for what Bill Ackman predicts will be “one of the more interesting days in our country’s economic history.”

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Monday Crash?

On the other hand, CNBC host and market commentator Jim Cramer just warned that America is in store for another “Black Monday” market crash similar to the record 1987 collapse if President Trump doesn’t curtail his tariff plan.

Cramer — who noted that the 1987 crash saw the Dow Jones Industrial Average fall by 22.6% in a single day — said the bloodbath could be repeated after the brutal two-day sell-off following the announcement of Trump’s sweeping tariffs against nearly 90 countries.

If the president doesn’t try to reach out and reward these countries and companies that play by the rules, then the 1987 scenario … the one where we went down three days and then down 22% on Monday, has the most cogency,” Cramer said on his show Saturday, referencing the worst single-day fall in the history of the Dow.

QUESTION: Who is correct; Ackman or Cramer?

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TRADITIONAL INVESTMENT PORTFOLIO DIVERSIFICATION MODEL: Routed by Larry Fink CEO of BlackRock?

Posted on April 3, 2025 by Dr. David Edward Marcinko MBA MEd CMP™

BREAKING NEWS – MARKET VOLATILITY

By Staff Reporters

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US stocks nosedived on Thursday, with the Dow tumbling more than 1,200 points as President Trump’s surprisingly steep “Liberation Day” tariffs sent shock waves through markets worldwide. The tech-heavy NASDAQ Composite (IXIC) led the sell-off, plummeting over 4%. The S&P 500 (GSPC) dove 3.7%, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average (^DJI) tumbled roughly 3%. [ongoing story].

So, does the traditional 60 stock / 40 bond strategy still work or do we need another portfolio model?

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The 60/40 strategy evolved out of American economist Harry Markowitz’s groundbreaking 1950s work on modern portfolio theory, which holds that investors should diversify their holdings with a mix of high-risk, high-return assets and low-risk, low-return assets based on their individual circumstances.

While a portfolio with a mix of 40% bonds and 60% equities may bring lower returns than all-stock holdings, the diversification generally brings lower variance in the returns—meaning more reliability—as long as there isn’t a strong correlation between stock and bond returns (ideally the correlation is negative, with bond returns rising while stock returns fall).

CORRELATION: https://medicalexecutivepost.com/2024/10/27/correlation-diversification-in-finance-and-investments/

For 60/40 to work, bonds must be less volatile than stocks and economic growth and inflation have to move up and down in tandem. Typically, the same economic growth that powers rallies in equities also pushes up inflation—and bond returns down. Conversely, in a recession stocks drop and inflation is low, pushing up bond prices.

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But, the traditional 60/40 portfolio may “no longer fully represent true diversification,” BlackRock CEO Larry Fink writes in a new letter to investors.
Instead, the “future standard portfolio” may move toward 50/30/20 with stocks, bonds and private assets like real estate, infrastructure and private credit, Fink writes.
Here’s what experts say individual investors may want to consider before dabbling in private investments.

It may be time to rethink the traditional 60/40 investment portfolio, according to BlackRock CEO Larry Fink. In a new letter to investors, Fink writes the traditional allocation comprised of 60% stocks and 40% bonds that dates back to the 1950s “may no longer fully represent true diversification.“

DI-WORSIFICATION: https://medicalexecutivepost.com/2024/04/09/what-is-financial-portfolio-di-worsification-2/

EDUCATION: Books

SPEAKING: Dr. Marcinko will be speaking and lecturing, signing and opining, teaching and preaching, storming and performing at many locations throughout the USA this year! His tour of witty and serious pontifications may be scheduled on a planned or ad-hoc basis; for public or private meetings and gatherings; formally, informally, or over lunch or dinner. All medical societies, financial advisory firms or Broker-Dealers are encouraged to submit a RFP for speaking engagements: MarcinkoAdvisors@outlook.com

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Filed under: "Ask-an-Advisor", Experts Invited, Financial Planning, Funding Basics, Investing, Marcinko Associates, Portfolio Management | Tagged: BlackRock, bonds, correlation, diversification, Diworsification, finance, Financial Planning, Growth, Harry Markowitz, Investing, investment, Larry Fink, Marcinko, personal-finance, portfolio, Portfolio Management, Private Equity, real estate, recession, stock, stocks | Leave a comment »

Elon Musk and Mike Burry MD Speak Out & About Consumer Debt

Posted on September 24, 2024 by Dr. David Edward Marcinko MBA MEd CMP™

WARNING – WARNING

By Dr. David Edward Marcinko MBA MEd CMP™

SPONSOR: http://www.CERTIFIEDMEDICALPLANNER.org

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Echoing Elon Musk and my colleague medical Michael Burry MD has warned about American consumers’ debt woes.

Echoing the likes of Tesla’s Elon Musk and “The Big Short” investor Michael Burry, a veteran economist has warned that American households have racked up historic amounts of debt — and the economy will pay the price.

“Consumers are just waking up to the fact that they’re financing their spending by running up their credit cards, and that the interest on those credit cards is over the top, out of control, and off the hook right now,” Carl Weinberg told CNBC. Record credit-card debt threatens to spark a consumer-spending slowdown soon, Carl Weinberg said.

“That’s going to lead to a retrenchment in consumer spending as we get into the new year” the chief economist at High Frequency Economics said. Weinberg expects the US economy to cool but not slide into recession, and he sees inflation fading.

PS: Mike Burry contributed to our 800 page textbook on investing for physicians.

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MORE: https://www.routledge.com/Comprehensive-Financial-Planning-Strategies-for-Doctors-and-Advisors-Best/Marcinko-Hetico/p/book/9781482240283

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RECESSION INDICATOR: Inverted Yield Curve?

Posted on August 3, 2024 by Dr. David Edward Marcinko MBA MEd CMP™

By Staff Reporters

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When economic trouble and/or uncertainty is brewing, it’s not uncommon for the US Treasury yield curve to flatten or even invert. A yield curve inversion, like we’re experiencing now, involves short-term-maturing bonds sporting higher yields than longer-dated Treasury bonds. It’s an indication that investors are worried about the U.S. economic outlook.

For the past 64 years, the Federal Reserve Bank of New York has used the Treasury yield spread between the 10-year bond rate and three-month bond rate to calculate the probability of a U.S. recession occurring within the next 12 months. Over these 64 years, the probability of a recession has topped 25% a dozen times and 40% on eight occasions.

With the exception of a peak probability of a recession of 41.14% in October 1966, the New York Fed’s recession-forecasting tool hasn’t been wrong if it’s surpassed 40%. In other words, if the New York Fed’s recession probability indicator surpasses 40%, we’ve had a recession within 12 months, without fail, for more than a half-century.

In December 2022, this recession probability tool hit 47.31%. That’s the highest reading since 1981, and a very clear indication that economic activity is expected to slow at some point in 2024?

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UPDATE: Treasury Yields, the Markets and Dr. Mark Mobius Speaks

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Filed under: "Ask-an-Advisor", Glossary Terms, Investing, Risk Management | Tagged: Federal Reserve, FOMC, Inverted yield curve, normal yield curve, recession, treasury bonds, yield curve inversion | 1 Comment »

DAILY UPDATE: Senior Care Facility Bankruptcies Up with Recession Life Spans?

Posted on March 24, 2024 by Dr. David Edward Marcinko MBA MEd CMP™

By Staff Reporters

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Financial hardship has led dozens of operators of senior facilities to file for bankruptcy over the past three years, with 13 companies filing petitions in 2021, 12 debtors filing in 2022 and 15 more in 2023, according to Gibbins Advisors.

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Notable Chapter 11 filings over the past year have included Evangelical Retirement Homes of Greater Chicago, which filed Chapter 11 in the U.S. Bankruptcy Court for the Northern District of Illinois in June 2023 to sell its assets at auction. Also, Windsor Terrace Health, an operator of 32 nursing homes in California and three in Arizona, filed its petition in the U.S. Bankruptcy Court for the Central District of California in August 2023 listing $1 million to $10 million in assets and liabilities and unable to pay its debts.

CITE: https://www.r2library.com/Resource/Title/082610254

More recently, Magnolia Senior Living, an operator of four facilities in Georgia, filed for Chapter 11 protection on March. 19 in the U.S. Bankruptcy Court for the Northern District of Georgia.

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The Great Recession of 2008 had a lot of downsides: People lost homes, jobs, and retirement savings, had their careers derailed, and were forced to learn what the heck synthetic collateralized debt obligations are. But according to recent research, it also made people in the US live longer.

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DAILY UPDATE: FDA Approves COVID Booster while Sonders Speaks about the Markets

Posted on September 12, 2023 by Dr. David Edward Marcinko MBA MEd CMP™

By Staff Reporters

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The U.S. Food and Drug Administration authorized and approved updated COVID boosters on Monday amid rising cases and hospitalizations across the country. The boosters made by Pfizer-BioNTech and Moderna, were formulated to target variants that are currently circulating, which are related to XBB – an offshoot of the omicron variant.

CITE: https://www.r2library.com/Resource

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The US economy is in a “rolling recession” and a full-blown downturn looms, Liz Ann Sonders says.
Weakness in consumer goods and manufacturing is being offset by strength in services, she noted.
Charles Schwab’s chief investment strategist doesn’t expect a bunch of interest—rate cuts in 2024.

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Here is where the major benchmarks ended:

The S&P 500 Index was up 29.97 points (0.7%) at 4,487.46; the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) was up 87.13 points (0.3%) at 34,663.72; the NASDAQ Composite was up 156.37 points (1.1%) at 13,917.89.
The 10-year Treasury note yield (TNX) was up about 3 basis points at 4.29%.
CBOE’s Volatility Index (VIX) was down 0.03 at 13.81.

The consumer discretionary sector, which includes stocks like Tesla and Amazon (AMZN), gained nearly 3% and ended at an eight-week high. Health care and utilities were also higher. Energy shares dropped as crude oil futures eased, but oil prices remained near 10-month highs.

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DAILY UPDATE: Recession and the Markets

Posted on August 25, 2023 by Dr. David Edward Marcinko MBA MEd CMP™

By Staff Reporters

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There are certain types of stocks, bonds and mutual funds that perform better when the market is in decline. Seasoned investors tend to survive bear markets by focusing on the stocks of companies that make products necessary for daily life. Companies that often thrive in a recessionary environment are defensive stocks that provide products and services people simply cannot live without. Stocks included in this list are considered to be defensive by Wall Street analysts.

These type of stocks have performed -5.35% over the past year. By comparison, the S&P 500 is 7.13% over the same period. These types of stocks include: 30.00% of Consumer Cyclical stocks, 30.00% of Consumer Non-Cyclical stocks, 20.00% of Healthcare stocks, 10.00% of Technology stocks and 10.00% of Energy stocks.

Bear markets and recessions also tend to present themselves when market prices have been rising for a time; and investors are feeling irrationally exuberant. But, some markets have seen downturns in 2022 and 2023.

CITE: https://www.r2library.com/Resource

Here is where the major benchmarks ended yesterday:

The S&P 500^® Index fell 60 points (1.35%) to 4,376.31; the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) fell 374 points (1.08%) to 34,099.42; the NASDAQ Composite fell 257 points (1.87%) to 13,463.97.
The 10-year Treasury note yield (TNX) rose 4 basis points to 4.236%.
CBOE’s Volatility Index (VIX) rose roughly 1 point to 17.08.

Consumer discretionary was the weakest sector Thursday, as heavyweight constituents Amazon (AMZN) and Tesla (TSLA) both slid around 2.5%, with communication services and tech right behind. No sector was higher for the day.

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DAILY UPDATE: Moody’s Warns of ‘Mild’ Recession”with Bank Watch and the Markets

Posted on August 9, 2023 by Dr. David Edward Marcinko MBA MEd CMP™

By Staff Reporters

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(UPI) — A drain on deposits, along with the decline in asset value in a high-interest rate environment, led to a downgrade in ratings for a handful of U.S. banks, Moody’s said. Moody’s Investors Service downgraded the credit rating for smaller lenders such as Pinnacle Financial and put major banks such as Northern Trust under review.

In a report published late Monday, Moody’s said banks may be facing a liquidity and capital crisis “as the wind-down of unconventional monetary policy drains system-wide deposits and higher interest rates depress the value of fixed-rate assets.” Second quarter results for many banks, meanwhile, revealed a struggle to generate profit at a time when Moody’s expects a “mild” recession to emerge in the U.S. economy by early 2024. The investment service added that there was a particular risk coming from the commercial real estate portfolios for some of the banks under review.

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Here is where the major benchmarks ended:

The S&P 500 Index was down 19.06 points (0.4%) at 4,499.38; the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) was down 158.64 points (0.5%) at 35,314.49; the NASDAQ Composite was down 110.07 points (0.8%) at 13,884.32.
The 10-year Treasury note yield (TNX) was down about 5 basis points at 4.028%.
CBOE’s Volatility Index (VIX) was up 0.27 at 16.04.

Financial and technology shares were among the weakest sectors Tuesday, with the KBW Regional Banking Index (KRX) dropping about 1.5%. Energy stocks were strong as crude oil futures climbed more than 1%.

Volatility based on the VIX spiked to its highest level since late May before receding late in the session. The U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) strengthened on expectations domestic interest rates will remain higher than those in other countries.

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Recession, Interest Rates and Earnings?

Posted on July 25, 2023 by Dr. David Edward Marcinko MBA MEd CMP™

By Staff Reporters

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Recession: Last October, economists surveyed by Bloomberg were predicting a 100% chance of a Recession. But currently, the Dow is riding a 10-day winning streak, and the S&P 500 is just over 5% away from its all-time high. This week, Wall Street will be glued to the Fed’s interest rate announcement and a heavy slate of earnings.

Final Fed rate hike? The Federal Reserve will likely announce another interest rate increase this week, but this could be the final hike in its 16-month quest to bring down inflation. If the Fed hikes 25 basis points as expected, interest rates would be at their highest level since 2001.

Earnings galore: Corporate America’s A-list will report Q2 earnings this week, including Meta, Alphabet, Microsoft, McDonald’s, Coca-Cola, and Exxon Mobil. In all, about one-third of companies in the S&P 500 will give financial updates over the next five days, so we should get a good look into the health of a bunch of different industries.

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DAILY UPDATE: Nouriel Roubini and John Carney Speak

Posted on April 3, 2023 by Dr. David Edward Marcinko MBA MEd CMP™

By Staff Reporters

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Nouriel Roubini says the economy is headed for a “doom loop”. That’s due to three stressors in the economy, which will leave the Fed unable to fight a recession. Roubini, who called the 2008 downturn, has long warned of imminent financial chaos. And, he has more dire words of warning for the economy.

“Dr. Doom” warned in a column this week that the US face a major financial crisis and the economy is entering what he calls a “doom loop”.

In an op-ed for Project Syndicate on Thursday, Roubini forecasted a coming cycle of economic pain, as the US struggling under both high inflation and high debt burdens. Those issues perpetuate each other, he said, warning of a recession and impending financial crisis that would only get worse the longer it dragged on.

CITE: https://www.r2library.com/Resource

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During an appearance on “Fox & Friends Weekend,” Breitbart economics editor John Carney warned that the dollar’s feeble valuation could be a “serious threat” to the U.S.’s crucial influence on the world stage.

RUSSIA, CHINA MAY BE PREPARING NEW GOLD-BACKED CURRENCY, BUT EXPERT ASSURES US DOLLAR ‘SAFEST’ CURRENCY TODAY

“”[It’s] not only a serious threat, I think it is inevitable. We went through three stages, as you said, after World War II. The U.S. was the biggest economy in the world. In the 1970s, global banking became basically dollar central. With the fall of the Soviet Union, the entire world, more or less, came under the domination of the U.S dollar…”

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INVITE MARCINKO: https://medicalexecutivepost.com/2023/02/07/should-you-invite-dr-marcinko-to-speak-at-your-next-seminar-or-event/

CITE: https://www.amazon.com/Dictionary-Health-Information-Technology-Security/dp/0826149952/ref=sr_1_5?ie=UTF8&s=books&qid=1254413315&sr=1-5

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RECESSION: Healthcare Industry Layoffs

Posted on February 5, 2023 by Dr. David Edward Marcinko MBA MEd CMP™

Not even the healthcare industry is recession-proof

By Staff Reporters

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According to Kristine White of Healthcare Brew, New York City-based Memorial Sloan Kettering Cancer Center (MSK), one of the country’s top cancer treatment facilities, laid off 337 employees on Jan. 17 in response to ongoing financial challenges, according to a New York State Department of Labor filing.

The 337 employees, who worked across 14 sites and in multiple departments, represent about 1.5% of MSK’s 22,500 employees. This is a slight decrease from the expected 3% of layoffs announced in November 2022.

“This reduction was necessary to ensure that MSK can continue to invest in the future of cancer care, research, and education for the benefit of generations to come, and every effort has been made to ensure that patient care is not impacted,” spokesperson John Connolly said in a statement shared with Healthcare Brew.

The institution’s operating losses totaled $116.1 million for Q3 of 2022, compared to a loss of $8.7 million during the same period in 2021, according to a quarterly financial report released in November last year.

Factors such as increased patient activity, wages, and supply costs from inflation pushed the system’s operating expenses up by 7.5% from Q3 of 2021 to Q3 of 2022. The cancer center hired more staff in 2022 with the expectation that patient volume would increase, according to the financial report.

CITE: https://www.r2library.com/Resource/Title/0826102549

Health systems like MSK often reevaluate their biggest expense (workers) when business is down, Lori Kalic, a healthcare senior analyst at consulting firm RSM, told Healthcare Brew.

Just this year, multiple hospitals and health systems have also announced layoffs, including Tufts Medicine in Boston and Integris Health in Oklahoma, according to White.

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ORDER: https://www.amazon.com/Dictionary-Health-Insurance-Managed-Care/dp/0826149944/ref=sr_1_4?ie=UTF8&s=books&qid=1275315485&sr=1-4

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Recession OR Not … You Decide?

Posted on January 4, 2023 by Dr. David Edward Marcinko MBA MEd CMP™

A ME-P Reader Opinion Poll

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DEFINITION: NBER defines a recession as “a significant decline in economic activity that is spread across the economy and that lasts more than a few months.” That definition encompasses a range of economic factor but is based on three main criteria: The depth, diffusion and duration of a downturn.

CITE: https://www.r2library.com/Resource/Title/082610254

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Former Federal Reserve Chair Alan Greenspan recently said a US recession is the “most likely outcome” in 2023 as the central bank tightens monetary policy to curb inflation.

So – Tell Us What You Think.

FELL FREE TO PONTIFICATE

LEAVE A COMMENT BELOW

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HAPPY NEW [Recessionary] YEAR 2023?

Posted on January 1, 2023 by Dr. David Edward Marcinko MBA MEd CMP™

By Staff Reporters

The Fed hikes interest rates, sending economy teetering toward a recession?

If everyone was an opinionated virologist in 2020, then 2022 turned us all into macro-economists. In an effort to fight historic inflation, the Fed raised its benchmark interest rate seven times this year, pushing it to a 15-year high. Chair Jerome Powell’s hawkish turn slowed the economy and was a major catalyst for the brutal sell-off in stocks, particularly in the tech sector. This year, Amazon became the first public company to lose $1 trillion in market value.

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EVEN HOUSING MARKETS DOWN

The U.S. housing market is experiencing its second-biggest home price correction of the post-World War II era. Macro Trends Advisors founding partner Mitch Roschelle attributed the massive correction to Americans’ uncertainty for the markets and their “uneasiness” regarding the economy. He explained on “Varney & Co.” that the “shoe to drop” would be if the nation starts to see a rise in unemployment, which could cause a “leg down” in the housing market.

Finis?

So what’s ahead for 2023? According to MorningBrew, Economists think that a recession is likely, but a few are holding out hope that the Fed can achieve a so-called “soft landing,” where it brings inflation down to normal levels without causing the economy to shrink. Recent months have brought cautiously hopeful news: Annual inflation has cooled from a peak of 9.1% to 7.1%, so rate hikes are expected to be much less aggressive next year.

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DAILY UPDATE: Recession Worries as Stocks are SLAMMED!

Posted on December 6, 2022 by Dr. David Edward Marcinko MBA MEd CMP™

By Staff Reporters

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Recession worries are firing up as the yield curve (a graph of US Treasury bond yields over time) takes on an increasingly negative slope, the likes of which we haven’t seen in 40 years. Near the last days of November, the yield on the 10-year T-bond dropped almost 0.8% below the two-year bond yield. Typically these metrics have the opposite relationship, and an aggressive inversion like this has been a pretty accurate indicator of an upcoming recession. Last time it was this bad in the ’80s, unemployment was worse than during the 2008 financial crisis.

And, a fw months after Microsoft announced plans to acquire the video game maker Activision Blizzard, the tech giant said it would remain neutral if Activision workers sought to unionize once the deal went through. Now, a major union is testing Microsoft’s appetite for organizing at a company it already owns.

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U.S. also stocks fell hard to start off the new week amid some economic data, even as China took further measures to ease COVID restrictions. The global markets digested a host of November services sector reports which suggested that activity around the globe is mostly slowing, but U.S. output surprisingly accelerated. The data seemed to foster uncertainty regarding how aggressive the Fed may be next week with its monetary policy decision.

In other economic news, factory orders grew at a faster pace than expected. Treasury yields gained ground, the U.S. dollar reversed to the upside, and gold prices saw noticeable pressure.

Crude oil prices dropped after OPEC+ left its production target unchanged, and new restrictions on Russian oil kicked in, including an imposed $60 per barrel price cap on Russian oil from the G-7.

Other equity news was relatively light, but Science Applications International topped earnings estimates, and raised its guidance, though V.F. Corp lowered its 2023 outlook.

Asian stocks finished mixed, but mainland China and Hong Kong markets rallied. European stocks diverged amid the eased COVID measures in China and with the oil markets in focus.

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DAILY UPDATE: About the ECONOMY & RECESSION?

Posted on October 23, 2022 by Dr. David Edward Marcinko MBA MEd CMP™

Forecasts Cognitive [Mental] Dissonance?

By Staff Reporters

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A Bloomberg economic model forecast a 100% chance of a US recession within 12 months

Jeff Bezos warned companies to “batten down the hatches” in response to Goldman Sachs’s CEO saying there’s a good chance we’ll have a recession.

Elon Musk guesstimated that we’re going to be in a recession “probably until spring of ’24.”

Gwyneth Paltrow said, “The economy sucks.”

BUT, Bank of America CEO Brian Moynihan (the one with the epic vocabulary) said that while analysts are warning of recession and slower spending, “We just don’t see [that] here at Bank of America.” Transaction volumes for its customers jumped 10% in September and the first half of October over a year earlier.

And, American Express’s CEO said, “We’re not seeing any changes in consumer spending” and predicted a strong holiday quarter for retail and travel.

United Airlines’s CEO is “so optimistic about 2023.”

Many business leaders are forecasting an economic downturn. But the execs who run travel and credit card companies say that shoppers aren’t pulling back spending at all.

It’s like Americans are watching the forecast call for thunderstorms but, seeing that it’s still sunny outside, are heading out to the waves to surf anyway.

Big picture: Recession fears are rising as the Fed raises interest rates to tame inflation that’s soaring at 40-year highs. While the definition of a recession is pretty broad, a slowdown in consumer spending would certainly be an indicator of one: It accounts for about 70% of the US economy.

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DAILY UPDATE: Equities, Treasuries, Crude Oil and BoA

Posted on October 18, 2022 by Dr. David Edward Marcinko MBA MEd CMP™

THE ECONOMY & RECESSION

By Staff Reporters

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U.S. equities rose noticeably in the first trading session of the week following the new U.K. finance minister’s announcement that the government would abandon nearly all its tax cut plans. The moves came amid hopes of some stabilization in the global bond and currency markets which have seen increased volatility in the wake of the initial proposal.

Treasury yields traded mixed, while the U.S. dollar fell amid strength in both the British pound and the euro.

Crude oil prices nudged lower, and gold traded slightly higher.

Bank of America shares rose as the company eclipsed quarterly expectations on a jump in net interest income, while Q3 earnings season is set to kick into a higher gear this week.

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Economy: This party may be busted by the cops. A US recession is a 100% certainty within the next 12 months, according to Bloomberg’s economic model.

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FOMC: May Keep Tightening Until a Recession!

Posted on October 1, 2022 by Dr. David Edward Marcinko MBA MEd CMP™

By Staff Reporters

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The FOMC just reiterated calls for aggressive policy to combat stubbornly high inflation—fueling expectations for bigger rate hikes amid a stock-market sell-off that’s seen major indexes hit new lows for the year—and some analysts project the losses could only deepen.

Expectations for rate hikes climbed amid the comments, with markets pricing in an end-of-year rate of 4.5%—above the 4.4% rate Fed officials projected earlier this month, which itself was one percentage point higher than the forecast in June.

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UPDATE: A Recession Looming?

Posted on September 16, 2022 by Dr. David Edward Marcinko MBA MEd CMP™

By Staff Reporters

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Wall Street ended sharply lower today extending its losses in late afternoon trading as a raft of economic data failed to alter the expected course of aggressive tightening by the Federal Reserve amid growing warnings of global recession. The sell-off gathered momentum toward the end of the session, with market leaders including Microsoft Corp, Apple Inc and Amazon.com Inc hitting the tech-laden NASDAQ hardest.

After the bell, FedEx Corp tumbled 14.5% after the package delivery company said its fiscal first-quarter results were hit by global volume softness and it withdrew its financial forecast, saying it expected further deterioration of business conditions. FedEx’s warning sent shares of rival United Parcel Service down 5.7% in extended trade.

Earlier, in the trading session, the benchmark S&P 500 closed a hair above 3,900, seen by many analysts as a key technical support level that has been tested several times over the past two weeks.

Interest rate-sensitive banks helped soften the blue-chip Dow’s decline.

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UPDATE: Recession, Goldman Sachs, and Tesla

Posted on August 5, 2022 by Dr. David Edward Marcinko MBA MEd CMP™

By Staff Reporters

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The director of the nonpartisan Congressional Budget Office [CBO] added his voice Thursday to those economists who say it’s unclear if the economy has hit a downturn, despite posting two straight quarterly drops in growth. “The U.S. economy shows signs of slowing, but whether the economy is currently in a recession is difficult to say,” wrote CBO Director Phillip Swagel in a letter to Sen. Lindsey Graham (R-S.C.). “It is possible that, in retrospect, it will become apparent that the economy moved into recession sometime this year. However, that is not clear from data that were available at the beginning of August,” Swagel added.

Goldman Sachs said its credit card unit is under investigation by the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau, a federal agency tasked with protecting Americans from financial abuse. In a securities filing, Goldman said the CFPB is examining a number of the company’s credit card account management practices, including refunds, resolving billing errors, advertisements and reporting to credit bureaus. And, in a statement to CBS MoneyWatch, Goldman said the bank “is cooperating with the CFPB on this matter.”

Finally, shares of electric vehicle maker Tesla rallied in after-hours trading as the company won shareholder approval for a 3:1 stock split, the second such move in two years, as the world’s most valuable automaker looks to make its stock more affordable.

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UPDATE: The Markets, Jim Rogers Speaks, and the Economy

Posted on August 2, 2022 by Dr. David Edward Marcinko MBA MEd CMP™

By Staff Reporters

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Stocks dipped at the start of August. The S&P 500 gave up an early gain to end down 11.7 points, or 0.3%, to close at 4,118.6. The Dow Jones Industrial Average dipped 46.7 points to 32,708, or 0.1%, and the tech-heavy NASDAQ fell 0.2%. Smaller company stocks also gave back some of their recent gains, nudging the Russell 2000 0.1% lower. Bond yields mostly fell. The yield on the 10-year Treasury, which influences mortgage rates, fell to 2.60% from 2.65% late Friday.

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Jim Rogers is bracing for an epic stock-market crash and a painful recession.
George Soros’ former partner sees the US dollar, energy, and agriculture as solid short-term bets.

Jim Rogers warned a historic stock-market crash is on the horizon, touted energy and agriculture as near-term winners, and cautioned that curbing inflation would require much higher interest rates during a recent Kitco News interview. Rogers is best known as the co-founder of Quantum Fund and Soros Fund Management. The veteran investor predicted a painful recession, ruled out bitcoin succeeding as a currency, and asserted that even a Russia-Ukraine peace deal wouldn’t prevent asset prices from eventually plunging.

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And now, some cautionary advice for workers worried about an economic downturn. “It will be mostly a white-collar recession. And the blue-collar recession will not be in the same places that we saw in the past.” That was William Lee, chief economist at the Milken Institute, a Santa Barbara, Calif.-based think tank, in an interview with MarketWatch, speculating on the nature of America’s next recession. Amid rising expectations among economists of a recession — commonly defined as two consecutive quarters of negative growth — Lee said there’s still a demand for blue-collar workers in service and manufacturing, which will help protect those workers if a recession hits. Even with a low unemployment rate of 3.6%, lower-income workers are always vulnerable in any economic downturn, but adding to comments he made on Bloomberg Radio earlier this week, Lee said there may be exceptions to that rule this time around.

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Finally, there’s an optimistic outlook considering June’s hot inflation reading of 9.1%, the fastest rise in prices in 41 years. It prompted another 75-point rate hike from the central bank last week, bringing the policy rate to 2.25%-2.5%. But there are signs the inflation fight is beginning to show results, Fundstrat said. July’s stock market performance was the strongest since November 2020, and inflation expectations have come down since July’s FOMC meeting.

The economy has entered a technical recession — but it could be just a growth scare, Fundstrat said.
Inflation expectations have flattened, and markets now see the policy rate peaking at 3.28% in January 2023.
It suggests that the stock market may not fall as sharply as some banks have predicted.

The economy entered a technical recession following the second straight quarterly decline for US GDP, but the market could be looking at a growth scare instead of a full blown recession and inflation should start falling sharply beginning with July’s reading, Fundstrat said in a note over the weekend.

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UPDATE: Recession Fears Perhaps? Maybe-Not!

Posted on July 29, 2022 by Dr. David Edward Marcinko MBA MEd CMP™

By Staff Reporters

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DEFINITION: For its official definition, the NBER considers a recession a “significant decline” in economic activity. Not only that—the decline must be deep, broad, and last for more than a few months. When deciding whether the economy is in a recession, the NBER looks to a variety of indicators (not just GDP) to understand the health of the economy, such as job growth, consumer spending, and industrial production. It’s not a simple or transparent formula.

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Top economists don’t believe a downturn has begun but some predict a mild recession is likely by early next year. For example, residential investment plunged last quarter as the housing market slumped amid sharply rising mortgage rates while business stockpiling and investment also declined, more than offsetting a modest advance in consumer spending. Furthermore, the nation’s gross domestic product, the value of all goods and services produced in the U.S., shrank at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 0.9% in the April-June period, according to the Commerce Department. That followed a 1.6% drop early this year. Economists surveyed by Bloomberg had forecast a 0.5% rise in GDP.

In fact, Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen also said the US economy is seeing an economic slowdown — something vital to bringing down inflation — but isn’t currently in a recession. “We do see a significant slowdown in growth,” Yellen said at a press conference. But a true recession is a “broad-based weakening of the economy,” she said. “That is not what we’re seeing right now.” The country currently is seeing job creation, strong household finances, gains in consumer spending and growth in business, Yellen said. Employment climbed by 1.1 million jobs in the second quarter, a sharp contrast with the average loss of 240,000 in the first three months of past recessions. The Treasury chief was speaking hours after data showed the US economy shrank for a second straight quarter, as higher interest rates slowed business investment and housing demand.

ON THE OTHER HAND: Yesterday was an amazing day for the stock market — especially for growth stocks. The Fed sparked a massive rally across all asset classes. It strongly implied it’ll slow the pace of rate hikes in the coming months. And it may even turn to rate cuts by the end of the year.

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UPDATE: The Markets, SPACs, Recession and Bezos, Musk & Zuckerberg

Posted on July 2, 2022 by Dr. David Edward Marcinko MBA MEd CMP™

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By Staff Reporters

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Markets: After their worst first half since 1970, stocks climbed to kick off the second half of the year, led by home building companies. But, the three major indexes posted weekly losses in four out of the last five weeks.
At least four SPAC mergers were called off in the 24 hours after the market closed, including one that would have taken Panera Brands public, according to Bloomberg. An index that tracks companies that went public via SPAC has plunged 67%. For the year to date, 30 proposed SPAC deals have been cancelled.

Recession: The Federal Reserve’s key real-time model for tracking U.S. economic activity has turned negative, signaling that the nation could already have entered a recession. The GDPNow gauge, a widely watched measurement from the Atlanta Federal Reserve Bank, indicated that real gross domestic product shrank by 1.0% in the second quarter from April through June, 2022. So, while the official advance estimate of Q2 performance will not be released for another month, this preliminary reading shows the second quarter in a row of negative growth in the economy after GDP contracted 1.6% in Q1.

And Jeff Bezos beat nemesis Elon Musk at—losing money. The Amazon founder’s net worth crashed by $63 billion in the first half of 2022, while Musk’s fell by $62 billion. All told, the 500 richest people in the world lost $1.4 trillion so far this year according to Bloomberg.

Finally, Mark Zuckerberg thinks he has more employees than he needs. He told Meta workers that the company would be “turning up the heat” on performance oversight in order to uncover the workers who just watch Netflix all day. “If I had to bet, I’d say that this might be one of the worst downturns that we’ve seen in recent history,” he said.

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UPDATE: A Recession with Opinions?

Posted on June 19, 2022 by Dr. David Edward Marcinko MBA MEd CMP™

By Staff Reporters

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Recession fears overtook the S&P 500 a day after the Fed meeting, reversing gains seen midweek.
The S&P 500 has been higher only 43.5% of all trading days in 2022, a gloomy marker, according to Bespoke Investment Group.
Meanwhile, it said the Fed is facing a “policy error” in focusing on headline inflation that’s swayed by high gas prices.

This year’s dismal performance in US equities worsened this week as a post-Fed rally fizzled and investors cemented the S&P 500 to one of its shabbiest mid-year showings in decades, all taking place with poor economic data piling up.

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Goldman Sachs’ President John Waldron admitted at a June 2 conference that this is “among—if not the most—complex, dynamic environments” that he’s ever experienced. As a result, investment banks and economists are split on what the most likely outcome will be for the U.S. economy moving forward. Deutsche Bank has argued since April that we’re headed for a “major” recession, but Morgan Stanley’s CEO James Gorman said on Monday the odds of even a minor recession are more like 50-50.

Bank of America believes we will most likely avoid a recession altogether and instead face “extended weakness,” while the economist and Nobel laureate Paul Krugman appeared to side with more optimistic Fed officials arguing that we could be headed for a ”goldilocks” scenario, where economic growth slows enough to cool inflation without instigating a recession.

HAPPY FATHER’S DAY 2022

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UPDATE: The Markets, Gasoline, Recession and the Bear

Posted on June 14, 2022 by Dr. David Edward Marcinko MBA MEd CMP™

By Staff Reporters

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For the domestic markets, the S&P 500 closed down 151 points, or 3.88%. It’s down nearly 22% since January. The Dow was down 876 points (2.79%) and the NASDAQ dropped 530 points (4.68%). And, investors were disappointed to learn that inflation is moving in the wrong direction. U.S. consumer prices surged 8.6% year-over-year in May, to a fresh 40-year high, led by higher prices for energy, food and housing.

For the first time in history, a gallon of regular gasoline now costs $5 on average nationwide, according to AAA, and experts predict gas prices could average $6 a gallon by August.

Moreover, nearly 70% of leading economists expect the US to tumble into a recession as the country grapples with inflation. In a Financial Times poll, the bulk of economists said they expect a recession to be declared in the first half of 2023. The poll comes after US inflation soared to 8.6% in May, outstripping economists’ expectations and piling the pressure on the Fed.

Finally, S&P Global says a 20% decline in the S&P 500 on a closing basis from its previous peak is all it takes to define a bear market. Which means that this bear market is already more than five months old, since the S&P 500 all-time high came on January 3rd, 2022.

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UPDATE: Vitalik Buterin, Recession Risk the Euro and BOA

Posted on May 23, 2022 by Dr. David Edward Marcinko MBA MEd CMP™

By Staff Reporters

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Vitalik Buterin tweeted Friday that he’s no longer a billionaire. Crypto has crashed in recent weeks amid a broad sell-off in traditional markets. Ethereum cofounder Vitalik Buterin tweeted Friday that he’s no longer a billionaire. Buterin, who cofounded the blockchain network in 2014, has seen its Ether token crash by 59% since hitting a high of around $4,800 in November 2021, when his holding was valued at around $1.5 billion.
Historically, the S&P 500 has fallen an average of 29% around recession (median of 24%). With the S&P 500 currently showing a peak-to-trough decline of almost 19%, the market is effectively already pricing in a 60%-75% chance of recession based on the average and median.
Thanks to a surging US dollar and a faltering Euro, many analysts expect that the two currencies could reach parity this year—meaning one dollar would fetch you one euro. The two currencies haven’t reached a 1:1 exchange rate since 2002, three years after the euro was introduced in an effort to bring stability to Europe. The euro closed at $1.057 against the dollar, just 5% above equal value with the US currency.
Finally, the current market plunge hasn’t yet scared investors like downturns in years past. Bank of America’s private clients are still dedicating 63% of their portfolios to stocks, compared to 39% after the 2008 financial crisis.

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The Impact Of The U.S. Recession On Hospitals

Posted on January 15, 2013 by Dr. David Edward Marcinko MBA MEd CMP™

Drivers of Decline

Commercially insured scheduled admissions are the largest contributor to inpatient margins for the average US hospital. During the US recession (2009-2011), volumes in this segment declined. There were two primary drivers of this decline.

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Dual Causes

First, commercial insurance coverage decreased, stemming from unemployment and underemployment. This is expected to reverse and rebound as the economy recovers and as healthcare reform is implemented.

Second, even among those who retained coverage, utilization of inpatient services decreased as patients delayed or forewent elective and preventative care. This was influenced by a range of economic factors, including reduced household incomes, higher co-pays, and a reduced ability to leave work for medical care, as well as factor unrelated to the recession, such as a shift to outpatient management of disease.

More: Are Cost Estimates Leading To The Wrong Decisions in US Hospitals?

Assessment

It is unclear whether this second driver will diminish fully as the economy recovers. A slow recovery – or one that fails to see volumes to return to pre-recession levels – suggests that hospitals may need to refocus their strategies on service lines and segments that have historically been less attractive.

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Building Up to the Fiscal Cliff

Posted on December 30, 2012 by Dr. David Edward Marcinko MBA MEd CMP™

A Historic Review

Assessment

Doctors, FAs and all ME-P readers. What is your strategy for the fiscal cliff situation?

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What are the Prospects for US Recession? [A Voting and Opinion Poll]

Posted on October 6, 2011 by Dr. David Edward Marcinko MBA MEd CMP™

Is Wall Street Driving Main Street?

By Staff Reporters

Concern is high that the US economy may be close to or entering recession, yet the fundamentals lend little support to such a projection. There has been no decline in jobs, while corporate health is very strong.

So, the recession concerns appear to be driven more by the decline in stock prices than by economic developments.

IOW: Is Wall Street pessimism driving Main Street gloom?

What do you think? Please vote and be sure to add your comments below.

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Medical News of Arkansas Interviews Dr. Marcinko

Posted on April 1, 2009 by Dr. David Edward Marcinko MBA MEd CMP™

Current Status of Hospitals and the Economy [Op-Ed]

[By Steve Brawner]

What: An exclusive telephonic and email interview.

Who: Dr. David Edward Marcinko; FACFAS, MBA [Editor, administrator and health economist]

Topic: The recession and economy, hospital operations, and the Obama administration.

Where: The telephone and internet virtual ME-P ether.

Why: To forecast informed opinions and pontifications on the healthcare industrial complex.

Among the dilemmas in healthcare, we seek answers to queries like:

• When will the recession end, and how will it affect hospitals and physicians?
• What operations and organizational policies can hospitals pursue to survive?
• How will the Obama stimulus affect hospitals and healthcare organizations?

Now, in as much as this controversy affects patients, administrators, politicians, Wall Street, nurse-executives and physicians alike, we went right to the source for up-to-date information regarding this current topic.

Assessment

Get ready for this controversial [unedited] interview and Q-A session, with Dr. David Edward Marcinko; Publisher-in-Chief, of this ME-P.

Arkansas Medical News Interviews Dr. Marcinko

Read it Here: interview-dr-marcinko1

Sponsored Link: www.MedicalBusinessAdvisors.com

Conclusion

OUR OTHER PRINT BOOKS AND RELATED INFORMATION SOURCES:

PRACTICES: www.BusinessofMedicalPractice.com
HOSPITALS: http://www.crcpress.com/product/isbn/9781466558731
CLINICS: http://www.crcpress.com/product/isbn/9781439879900
ADVISORS: www.CertifiedMedicalPlanner.org
FINANCE: Financial Planning for Physicians and Advisors
INSURANCE: Risk Management and Insurance Strategies for Physicians and Advisors
Dictionary of Health Economics and Finance
Dictionary of Health Information Technology and Security
Dictionary of Health Insurance and Managed Care

[HOSPITAL OPERATIONS, ORGANIZATIONAL BEHAVIOR AND FINANCIAL MANAGEMENT COMPANION TEXTBOOK SET]

***

Filed under: "Advisors Only", "Ask-an-Advisor", "Doctors Only", Breaking News, Interviews, Point-Counter Point, Sponsors | Tagged: david marcinko, DO, doctors, DPM, economy, healthcare industrial complex, Healthcare Organizations, healthcare stakeholders, hospitals, MD, Medical News of Arkansas, obama, patients, recession, steve brawner, Wall Street | 5 Comments »

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The Fed hikes interest rates, sending economy teetering toward a recession?

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[HOSPITAL OPERATIONS, ORGANIZATIONAL BEHAVIOR AND FINANCIAL MANAGEMENT COMPANION TEXTBOOK SET]

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