FOMC: May Keep Tightening Until a Recession!

By Staff Reporters

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The FOMC just reiterated calls for aggressive policy to combat stubbornly high inflation—fueling expectations for bigger rate hikes amid a stock-market sell-off that’s seen major indexes hit new lows for the year—and some analysts project the losses could only deepen.

Expectations for rate hikes climbed amid the comments, with markets pricing in an end-of-year rate of 4.5%—above the 4.4% rate Fed officials projected earlier this month, which itself was one percentage point higher than the forecast in June.

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FINANCE: https://www.routledge.com/Comprehensive-Financial-Planning-Strategies-for-Doctors-and-Advisors-Best/Marcinko-Hetico/p/book/9781482240283

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UPDATE: Recession, Goldman Sachs, and Tesla

By Staff Reporters

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The director of the nonpartisan Congressional Budget Office [CBO] added his voice Thursday to those economists who say it’s unclear if the economy has hit a downturn, despite posting two straight quarterly drops in growth. “The U.S. economy shows signs of slowing, but whether the economy is currently in a recession is difficult to say,” wrote CBO Director Phillip Swagel in a letter to Sen. Lindsey Graham (R-S.C.). “It is possible that, in retrospect, it will become apparent that the economy moved into recession sometime this year. However, that is not clear from data that were available at the beginning of August,” Swagel added.

Goldman Sachs said its credit card unit is under investigation by the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau, a federal agency tasked with protecting Americans from financial abuse. In a securities filing, Goldman said the CFPB is examining a number of the company’s credit card account management practices, including refunds, resolving billing errors, advertisements and reporting to credit bureaus. And, in a statement to CBS MoneyWatch, Goldman said the bank “is cooperating with the CFPB on this matter.”

Finally, shares of electric vehicle maker Tesla rallied in after-hours trading as the company won shareholder approval for a 3:1 stock split, the second such move in two years, as the world’s most valuable automaker looks to make its stock more affordable.

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FINANCIAL PLANNING: https://www.routledge.com/Comprehensive-Financial-Planning-Strategies-for-Doctors-and-Advisors-Best/Marcinko-Hetico/p/book/9781482240283

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UPDATE: The Markets, Gasoline, Recession and the Bear

By Staff Reporters

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For the domestic markets, the S&P 500 closed down 151 points, or 3.88%. It’s down nearly 22% since January. The Dow was down 876 points (2.79%) and the NASDAQ dropped 530 points (4.68%). And, investors were disappointed to learn that inflation is moving in the wrong direction. U.S. consumer prices surged 8.6% year-over-year in May, to a fresh 40-year high, led by higher prices for energy, food and housing.

For the first time in history, a gallon of regular gasoline now costs $5 on average nationwide, according to AAA, and experts predict gas prices could average $6 a gallon by August.

Moreover, nearly 70% of leading economists expect the US to tumble into a recession as the country grapples with inflation. In a Financial Times poll, the bulk of economists said they expect a recession to be declared in the first half of 2023. The poll comes after US inflation soared to 8.6% in May, outstripping economists’ expectations and piling the pressure on the Fed.

Finally, S&P Global says a 20% decline in the S&P 500 on a closing basis from its previous peak is all it takes to define a bear market. Which means that this bear market is already more than five months old, since the S&P 500 all-time high came on January 3rd, 2022.

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UPDATE: Vitalik Buterin, Recession Risk the Euro and BOA

By Staff Reporters

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  • Vitalik Buterin tweeted Friday that he’s no longer a billionaire. Crypto has crashed in recent weeks amid a broad sell-off in traditional markets. Ethereum cofounder Vitalik Buterin tweeted Friday that he’s no longer a billionaire. Buterin, who cofounded the blockchain network in 2014, has seen its Ether token crash by 59% since hitting a high of around $4,800 in November 2021, when his holding was valued at around $1.5 billion.
  • Historically, the S&P 500 has fallen an average of 29% around recession (median of 24%). With the S&P 500 currently showing a peak-to-trough decline of almost 19%, the market is effectively already pricing in a 60%-75% chance of recession based on the average and median.
  • Thanks to a surging US dollar and a faltering Euro, many analysts expect that the two currencies could reach parity this year—meaning one dollar would fetch you one euro. The two currencies haven’t reached a 1:1 exchange rate since 2002, three years after the euro was introduced in an effort to bring stability to Europe. The euro closed at $1.057 against the dollar, just 5% above equal value with the US currency.
  • Finally, the current market plunge hasn’t yet scared investors like downturns in years past. Bank of America’s private clients are still dedicating 63% of their portfolios to stocks, compared to 39% after the 2008 financial crisis.

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The Impact Of The U.S. Recession On Hospitals

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Drivers of Decline

Commercially insured scheduled admissions are the largest contributor to inpatient margins for the average US hospital. During the US recession (2009-2011), volumes in this segment declined. There were two primary drivers of this decline.

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Recession Impact

Dual Causes

First, commercial insurance coverage decreased, stemming from unemployment and underemployment. This is expected to reverse and rebound as the economy recovers and as healthcare reform is implemented.

Second, even among those who retained coverage, utilization of inpatient services decreased as patients delayed or forewent elective and preventative care. This was influenced by a range of economic factors, including reduced household incomes, higher co-pays, and a reduced ability to leave work for medical care, as well as factor unrelated to the recession, such as a shift to outpatient management of disease.

More: Are Cost Estimates Leading To The Wrong Decisions in US Hospitals?

Assessment

It is unclear whether this second driver will diminish fully as the economy recovers. A slow recovery – or one that fails to see volumes to return to pre-recession levels – suggests that hospitals may need to refocus their strategies on service lines and segments that have historically been less attractive.

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Conclusion

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Speaker: If you need a moderator or speaker for an upcoming event, Dr. David E. Marcinko; MBA – Publisher-in-Chief of the Medical Executive-Post – is available for seminar or speaking engagements. Contact: MarcinkoAdvisors@msn.com

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Building Up to the Fiscal Cliff

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A Historic Review

Fiscal Cliff

Assessment

Doctors, FAs and all ME-P readers. What is your strategy for the fiscal cliff situation?

Conclusion

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Speaker: If you need a moderator or speaker for an upcoming event, Dr. David E. Marcinko; MBA – Publisher-in-Chief of the Medical Executive-Post – is available for seminar or speaking engagements. Contact: MarcinkoAdvisors@msn.com

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What are the Prospects for US Recession? [A Voting and Opinion Poll]

Is Wall Street Driving Main Street?

By Staff Reporters

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Concern is high that the US economy may be close to or entering recession, yet the fundamentals lend little support to such a projection. There has been no decline in jobs, while corporate health is very strong.

So, the recession concerns appear to be driven more by the decline in stock prices than by economic developments.

IOW: Is Wall Street pessimism driving Main Street gloom?

What do you think? Please vote and be sure to add your comments below.

Conclusion

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Speaker: If you need a moderator or speaker for an upcoming event, Dr. David E. Marcinko; MBA – Publisher-in-Chief of the Medical Executive-Post – is available for seminar or speaking engagements. Contact: MarcinkoAdvisors@msn.com  

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Medical News of Arkansas Interviews Dr. Marcinko

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Current Status of Hospitals and the Economy [Op-Ed]

[By Steve Brawner]

atlanta-skylineWhat: An exclusive telephonic and email interview.

Who: Dr. David Edward Marcinko; FACFAS, MBA [Editor, administrator and health economist]

Topic: The recession and economy, hospital operations, and the Obama administration.

Where: The telephone and internet virtual ME-P ether.

Why: To forecast informed opinions and pontifications on the healthcare industrial complex.

Among the dilemmas in healthcare, we seek answers to queries like:

• When will the recession end, and how will it affect hospitals and physicians?
• What operations and organizational policies can hospitals pursue to survive?
• How will the Obama stimulus affect hospitals and healthcare organizations?

Now, in as much as this controversy affects patients, administrators, politicians, Wall Street, nurse-executives and physicians alike, we went right to the source for up-to-date information regarding this current topic.

Assessment

Get ready for this controversial [unedited] interview and Q-A session, with Dr. David Edward Marcinko; Publisher-in-Chief, of this ME-P.

Arkansas Medical News Interviews Dr. Marcinko

Read it Here: interview-dr-marcinko1

Sponsored Link: www.MedicalBusinessAdvisors.com

Conclusion

Your thoughts and comments on this ME-P are appreciated. Feel free to review our top-left column, and top-right sidebar materials, links, URLs and related websites, too. Then, subscribe to the ME-P. It is fast, free and secure.

Speaker: If you need a moderator or speaker for an upcoming event, Dr. David E. Marcinko; MBA – Publisher-in-Chief of the Medical Executive-Post – is available for seminar or speaking engagements. Contact: MarcinkoAdvisors@msn.com

OUR OTHER PRINT BOOKS AND RELATED INFORMATION SOURCES:

[HOSPITAL OPERATIONS, ORGANIZATIONAL BEHAVIOR AND FINANCIAL MANAGEMENT COMPANION TEXTBOOK SET]

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