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    Dr. Marcinko is originally from Loyola University MD, Temple University in Philadelphia and the Milton S. Hershey Medical Center in PA; as well as Oglethorpe University and Emory University in Georgia, the Atlanta Hospital & Medical Center; Kellogg-Keller Graduate School of Business and Management in Chicago, and the Aachen City University Hospital, Koln-Germany. He became one of the most innovative global thought leaders in medical business entrepreneurship today by leveraging and adding value with strategies to grow revenues and EBITDA while reducing non-essential expenditures and improving dated operational in-efficiencies.

    Professor David Marcinko was a board certified surgical fellow, hospital medical staff President, public and population health advocate, and Chief Executive & Education Officer with more than 425 published papers; 5,150 op-ed pieces and over 135+ domestic / international presentations to his credit; including the top ten [10] biggest drug, DME and pharmaceutical companies and financial services firms in the nation. He is also a best-selling Amazon author with 30 published academic text books in four languages [National Institute of Health, Library of Congress and Library of Medicine].

    Dr. David E. Marcinko is past Editor-in-Chief of the prestigious “Journal of Health Care Finance”, and a former Certified Financial Planner® who was named “Health Economist of the Year” in 2010. He is a Federal and State court approved expert witness featured in hundreds of peer reviewed medical, business, economics trade journals and publications [AMA, ADA, APMA, AAOS, Physicians Practice, Investment Advisor, Physician’s Money Digest and MD News] etc.

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    As a state licensed life, P&C and health insurance agent; and dual SEC registered investment advisor and representative, Marcinko was Founding Dean of the fiduciary and niche focused CERTIFIED MEDICAL PLANNER® chartered professional designation education program; as well as Chief Editor of the three print format HEALTH DICTIONARY SERIES® and online Wiki Project.

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Do Physician Investors and/or their Financial Advisors Use and Abuse Modern Portfolio Theory?

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The Cultural Clash of Passivity versus Activity

By Dr. David Edward Marcinko MBA CMP™

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[Publisher-in-Chief]

Ninety-three year old Professor Harry Markowitz PhD, coined the phrase “modern portfolio theory” [MPT] and concluded that investors are rewarded for taking certain risks but may not get rewarded for taking others. He developed the notion of an “efficient frontier” for different groups of asset classes and the idea that the higher the expected return, the higher the risk.

The Biblical Brinson, Hood, Beebower Study

In their 1986 study, Brinson, Hood, and Beebower attempted to measure three investment activities: (1) asset class selection, (2) market timing, and (3) security selection. They concluded that asset class selection had, by far, the greatest effect on the risk/return characteristics of a portfolio (some 93.6% of performance). But the most startling conclusion was that, if left alone, investment policy would have produced a higher average return than when market timing and security selection were taken into account. These latter factors actually reduced the average return over a 10-year period.

The Fama & French Study

In 1982, Fama and French found that three factors—market exposure, company size, and “value”—were systematic risks that explained the vast majority of equity market returns. “U.S. small-cap value stocks” is therefore a discreet asset class possessing all three of these systematic risks.

Most physicians and financial advisors are aware of modern portfolio theory but some fail to apply the principles to actual investor situations. Three examples: (1) using erroneous asset-class definitions, (2) using actively managed funds, and (3) relying on market timing. The abuse of modern portfolio theory can create portfolios loaded with latent risks that, on the surface, appear benign.

Not all Agree

Not everyone is in agreement with modern portfolio theory. Some detractors agree in principle, recognizing, for example, that “value” stocks have had higher returns than “growth” issues but they cite the cause as “mispricing” rather than risk.

Assessment

Institutional investors have gradually increased their commitment to passive strategies from virtually zero 20 years ago to 30% or more in the last decade [Think: Vanguard].

Individual and physician investors, on the other hand, have less than a 5% commitment.

Note: “Modern Portfolio Theory: Fact or Fiction?,” Gerard F. Stellwagen and Robin P. LaCouture, NAPFA Advisor, July 1997, pp. 1–7, National Association of Personal Financial Advisors for Fee-Only Financial Advisors.

Conclusion

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The Legacy of Dr. Jack Treynor

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The History Behind A Popular Investing Theory

[By Dr. David Edward Marcinko MBA CMP™]

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[Publisher-in-Chief]

In his 1959 “Portfolio Selection,” Harry Markowitz PhD [father of MPT], said that investors should diversify against market risk but that determining the required return from such a group of diversified assets was another matter. Seven years later, economist Jack Treynor PhD wrestled with the issue of how investors can measure the expected risk in a portfolio against its expected return. Meanwhile, William Sharpe developed his own measure of risk and return known as the Capital Asset Pricing Model (CAPM) first published in the Journal of Finance in 1964 and discussed elsewhere on the ME-P.

A Seminal Paper

Treynor’s 1961 paper entitled “Toward a Theory of Market Value of Risky Assets” concluded that investors expect greater compensation for the larger risk they take in the stock market than they do from risk-free assets, such as Treasury bills. He called it the “equity risk premium” and created a method to predict it.

Fisher Black Collaboration

In 1973, Treynor collaborated with Fischer Black to devise a method for predicting the risk premium and to demonstrate its overarching importance in the behavior of capital markets as well as in portfolio selection. From 1969 through 1981 he furthered the work of many leading financial theorists, including Sharpe and Black, when he edited the Financial Analysts Journal.

Intellectual Band-Aid

In an interview about a decade ago, Treynor stated his belief that modern finance is preoccupied with statistical, rather than economic, thinking about risk. He explained that beta has come under attack in recent years because it is a statistical concept of risk. An economic concept of risk would have a lot more predictive value—it would be tied more intimately into fundamental analysis of companies and portfolios. He refers to beta as “just an intellectual Band-Aid.”

The Jensen Alpha

Treynor also described Bill Jensen’s alpha as looking at a market line established by a large number of funds and identifying those that had returns above the market line. Accordingly, a portfolio manager can increase his or her alpha by simply buying and selling larger positions of the same research recommendations.

Assessment

Black and Treynor developed a ratio of alpha to residual risk (return squared /risk squared), which shows that when you have everything else equal and you increase this ratio, you improve performance. And, they actually introduced the term Sharpe ratio.

Note: “It’s All About Odds,” Jonathan Burton, Dow Jones Asset Management, July/August 1997, pp. 20–28, Dow Jones Financial Publishing Corp., (732) 389-8700.

Conclusion

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The Living Legacy of Dr. Harry Markowitz

Creating Diversified Portfolios of Uncorrelated Assets

By Dr. David Edward Marcinko MBA CMP™

[Publisher-in-Chief]

More than a half century ago, a paper appeared in The Journal of Finance written by a 24-year-old doctoral candidate in economics at the University of Chicago—Harry Markowitz. It was called “Portfolio Selection” and suggested that investors take into account risk in pursuit of the highest return—a concept that we take for granted today [Modern Portfolio Theory].

Markowitz drew a trade-off curve between risk and reward and called it the “efficient frontier.” A rational physician executive or other investor who knew his or her risk tolerance could choose an appropriate portfolio from a point on this curve. Markowitz led investors to diversified portfolios of uncorrelated investments.

Dissertation Follow-up

Markowitz followed up his dissertation in 1959 with a book entitled Portfolio Selection [Efficient Diversification of Investment]. His many contributions to finance earned him the Nobel Prize in Economic Science in 1990 along with William Sharpe and Merton Miller. He reasoned that diversification is about avoiding the covariance.

If risks are uncorrelated, you can reduce the risk of a portfolio to practically zero by sufficient diversification. This doesn’t work if risks are correlated. If one invests in a very large number of securities that are correlated, risk does not approach zero but rather the average covariance, which is a very substantial amount of risk.

Where It All Started

It was at the RAND Corporation that Markowitz met William [Bill] Sharpe who was working on his PhD at UCLA. Markowitz takes issue with Sharpe’s Capital Asset Pricing Model (CAPM), which claims that the expected return of a security depends only on its beta—ignoring fundamental analysis.

CAPM also implies that the market portfolio is efficient, even though investors in the market may not act rationally. It says that the market portfolio is a mean-variance efficient portfolio. Markowitz disputes this conclusion. He points to Fama and French and others who have found that expected returns are more closely related to book-to-price or size—not to beta.

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Assessment

The still living Markowitz fends off criticism of mean-variance analysis only being valid when probability distributions are normal by stating that he realizes that probability distributions are not normal in the real world.

But, if they are similar to a normal distribution, mean variance does a good job at approximating expected utility. He admits that when they are too dispersed, mean variance doesn’t work well.

Note: Travels along the Efficient Frontier,” an interview with Harry Markowitz by Jonathan Burton, Dow Jones Asset Management, May/June 1997, pp. 21–28, Dow Jones Financial Publishing Corp.

Conclusion

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Hospital Capital Formation, Harry Markowitz and Modern Portfolio Theory

Strategic Risk Considerations for Physician-Executives and Healthcare CXOs

[By Calvin W. Wiese; MBA, CPA, CMA]

To most all financial advisors, wealth managers and stock-brokers, the work of Harry Markowitz and Modern Portfolio Theory [MPT] is not usually discussed in terms of hospital capital formation. But, perhaps it should!

Capital Investments Create Risk

Capital investments create risk. Risk is the uncertainty of future events. When hospitals make capital investments, they commit to costs that affect future periods. Those costs are known and relatively fixed. What are unknown are the benefits to be realized by those capital investments.

Defining Risk

For capital investments, risk is the certainty of future costs coupled with the uncertainty of future benefits. In some cases, while the future benefits are uncertain, there is a high degree of certainty that the benefits will exceed the costs. In these cases, risk can be very low. Risk may be better defined as the degree to which the uncertainty of unknown benefits will exceed the known and committed costs.

Asset Burdens and Benefits

When capital assets are purchased, both the burdens and the benefits of ownership are transferred to the owner. The burdens are primarily the costs associated with acquisition and installation. The benefits are primarily the revenues generated by operating the capital assets. Risk of ownership is created to the degree that the benefits are uncertain.

Understanding Risk

Hospital managers need to be skilled at putting hospital assets at risk. Without clear knowledge and understanding of the benefits and the burdens, hospitals can quickly find themselves at unacceptably high levels of risk. Risk must be continually assessed and evaluated in order to successfully put hospital assets at risk. Hospitals require many varied capital investments; their capital investments represent a risk portfolio. An effective combination of risky assets can often create risk that is less than the sum of the risk of each asset.

Modern Portfolio Theory

Of course, financial managers have know this for years as a basic principle of Modern Portfolio Theory (MPT), first introduced by Harry Markowitz, PhD, with the paper “Portfolio Selection,” which appeared in the 1952 Journal of Finance. Thirty-eight years later, he shared a Nobel Prize with Merton Miller, PhD, and William Sharpe, PhD, for what has become a broad theory for securities asset selection; and hospital assets may be viewed as little different.

Prior to Markowitz’s work, investors focused on assessing the rewards and risks of individual securities in constructing a portfolio. Standard advice was to identify those that offered the best opportunities for gain with the least risk and then construct a portfolio from them. Following this advice, a hospital administrator might conclude that a positron emission tomography (PET) scanning machine offered good risk-reward characteristics, and pursue a strategy to compile a network of them in a given geographic area. Intuitively, this would be foolish. Markowitz formalized this intuition.

Detailing the mathematics of diversity, he proposed that investors focus on selecting portfolios based on their overall risk-reward characteristics instead of merely compiling portfolios of securities, or capital assets that each individually has attractive risk-reward characteristics. In a nutshell, just as investors should select portfolios not individual securities, so hospital administrators should select a wide spectrum of radiology services, not merely machines.

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Assessment

Savvy hospital managers will mitigate ownership risk by constructing their portfolio of risky assets in a manner that lowers overall risk

Conclusion

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Strategic Modern Portfolio Theory Considerations in Hospital Capital Formation

Understanding Risk for Doctors and Financial Advisors

By Calvin W. Wiese; MBA, CPA

www.HealthcareFinancials.com

Hospital capital investments financial create risk. Risk is the uncertainty of future events. When hospitals make capital investments, they commit to costs that affect future periods. Those costs are known and relatively fixed. What are unknown are the benefits to be realized by those capital investments. For capital investments, risk is the certainty of future costs coupled with the uncertainty of future benefits. In some cases, while the future benefits are uncertain, there is a high degree of certainty that the benefits will exceed the costs. In these cases, risk can be very low.

Risk Re-Defined

Risk may be better defined as the degree to which the uncertainty of unknown benefits will exceed the known and committed costs. For example, when capital assets are purchased, both the burdens and the benefits of ownership are transferred to the owner. The burdens are primarily the costs associated with acquisition and installation. The benefits are primarily the revenues generated by operating the capital assets. Risk of ownership is created to the degree that the benefits are uncertain.

Managing Risk

Hospital managers and physician executives need to be skilled at putting hospital assets at risk. Without clear knowledge and understanding of the benefits and the burdens, hospitals can quickly find themselves at unacceptably high levels of risk. Risk must be continually assessed and evaluated in order to successfully put hospital assets at risk. Hospitals require many varied capital investments; their capital investments represent a risk portfolio. An effective combination of risky assets can often create risk that is less than the sum of the risk of each asset.

About MPT

Of course, financial managers have know this for years as a basic principle of Modern Portfolio Theory (MPT), first introduced by Harry Markowitz, PhD, with the paper “Portfolio Selection,” which appeared in the 1952 Journal of Finance. Thirty-eight years later, he shared a Nobel Prize with Merton Miller, PhD, and William Sharpe, PhD, for what has become a broad theory for securities asset selection; and hospital assets may be viewed as little different. Prior to Markowitz’s work, investors focused on assessing the rewards and risks of individual securities in constructing a portfolio. Standard advice was to identify those that offered the best opportunities for gain with the least risk and then construct a portfolio from them.

Following this advice, a hospital administrator might conclude that a positron emission tomography (PET) scanning machine offered good risk-reward characteristics, and pursue a strategy to compile a network of them in a given geographic area. Intuitively, this would be foolish. Markowitz formalized this intuition. Detailing the mathematics of diversity, he proposed that investors focus on selecting portfolios based on their overall risk-reward characteristics instead of merely compiling portfolios of securities, or capital assets that each individually has attractive risk-reward characteristics. In a nutshell, just as investors should select portfolios not individual securities, so hospital administrators should select a wide spectrum of radiology services, not merely machines.

Assessment

Savvy hospital managers will mitigate ownership risk by constructing their portfolio of risky assets in a manner that lowers overall risk.

Conclusion

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Whither Physician Self-Portfolio Management?

Do it Yourself Considerations

By Clifton N. McIntire, Jr.; CIMA, CFP®

By Lisa Ellen McIntire; CIMA, CFP®fp-book

In order to self create and monitor an investment portfolio for personal, office, or medical foundation use, the physician investor should ask him/herself three questions:

1. How much do I have invested?

2. How much did I make on my investments?

3. How much risk did I take to get that rate of return?

How Am I Doing?

Most doctors and health care professionals know how much money they have invested. If they don’t, they can add a few statements together to obtain a total. Few actually know the rate of return achieved during last year’s debacle, or so far this year in 2009. Everyone can get this number by simply subtracting the ending balance from the beginning balance and dividing the difference. But, few take the time to do it. Why? A typical response to the question is, “We were doing fine” -or- “We did terrible last year.”

But, ask how much risk is in the portfolio and help is needed. Nobel laureate Harry Markowitz, PhD said, “If you take more risk, you deserve more return.” Using standard deviation, he referred to the “variability of returns” –  in other words, how much the portfolio goes up and down, its volatility.

Your Own Portfolio

How, and even whether or not to create and manage your own portfolio, is what this brief post is about.

First, you must determine what to do with your investments. How much risk can be taken and what is the time frame? You must understand the concept of risk vs. reward and write an investment policy statement.

Next, the assets that will be used for investment must be selected. This involves asset allocation and mixing different styles of investment management to achieve the desired results, and is the point where you go it alone, or professional investment managers are selected.

Be sure to review expenses, like wrap accounts, service fees, AUMs, commissions and compare mutual funds with private money management.

Monitor

Once the initial portfolio is in place, the performance must be monitored to assure compliance with the investment policy.  Here’s where you consider 401k or 403(b) plans, pension plans, retirement accounts, as well as how to change doctor trustees or managers when necessary.

Assessment

Finally, consider the role of professional consultants. Now after all of this, if you still want to do it yourself rather than be a doctor, the entire process will be professionally illustrated. An actual physicians’ financial plan with investing portfolio was reviewed previously, along with the steps taken to improve returns and reduce risk.

Link: https://healthcarefinancials.wordpress.com/2009/09/03/evaluating-a-sample-physician-financial-plan-iii/

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Conclusion

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