DAILY UPDATE: Nurses Strike as Stocks Decline

Posted on March 26, 2024 by Dr. David Edward Marcinko MBA

By Staff Reporters

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About 1,300 nurses at Staten Island University Hospital (SIUH) will strike on April 2nd if contract negotiations fail, the New York State Nurses Association (NYSNA) announced Thursday. The union, which represents about 42,000 nurses across the state, is looking for higher wages and improved nurse-to-patient ratios for their members—sticking points for Northwell Health, according to NYSNA.

AI RN Replacements: https://gizmodo.com/nvidia-wants-replace-nurses-with-ai-1851347917?utm_campaign=hcb&utm_medium=newsletter&utm_source=morning_brew

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Here’s where the major benchmarks ended:

  • The S&P 500 index sank 15.99 points (0.3%) to 5,218.19; the Dow Jones Industrial Average dropped 162.26 points (0.4%) to 39,313.64; the NASDAQ Composite lost 44.35 points (0.3%) to 16,384.47. 
  • The 10-year Treasury note yield (TNX) rose three basis points to 4.25% after a four-day retreat.
  • The CBOE Volatility Index® (VIX) edged up 0.14 to 13.20.

The energy sector followed crude oil prices and was the strongest sector Monday. Utilities and materials also saw strength. Weakest sectors included industrials, information technology, and real estate.

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BANKS: Down

Posted on February 2, 2024 by Dr. David Edward Marcinko MBA

By Staff Reporters

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Commercial real estate has been on the struggle bus since the pandemic hit in 2020, and now it’s taking regional banks along for the ride.

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Recently, New York Community Bancorp (NYCB) shares took an 11% tumble—on top of a 38% plunge on Wednesday—after the bank said it’s dealing with surging losses from office buildings and multifamily apartment buildings. It’s a sign that commercial real estate (CRE) lenders are reckoning with the fact that they might not get their money back as commercial landlords struggle with high vacancies and interest rates:

  • More than $2.2 trillion in US commercial property loans will come due by 2027, according to the Wall Street Journal.
  • The default risk is worse for regional banks, where CRE loans make up nearly 29% of all assets, versus 6.5% at big national banks.

The KBW Regional Banking Index also dropped 9.2% since Wednesday, the most since Silicon Valley Bank’s collapse last year. (Coincidentally, most of the assets of Signature Bank, which failed shortly after SVB, were bought by NYCB.)

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BUYING: Home Economics

Posted on January 21, 2024 by Dr. David Edward Marcinko MBA

By Staff Reporters

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A report released last month by the National Association of Realtors (NAR) confirms what many Americans suspect: home affordability is down. Due to rising interest rates and low inventory, NAR found that the average income of a home buyer between July 2022 and June 2023 was $107,000, up from $88,000 the year prior—one of the highest levels since NAR started tracking in 1981.

But the housing market continues to churn. The organization found…

  • More and more home buyers are single women. The share of single women buying homes is almost double that of men. They’re also slightly older—a single woman buying her first home is 38 on average, while a single man is 33 years old.
  • Buyers are older. The average first-time home buyer is 35, up from 29 in the 1980s, but it’s older people who are buying up the three-bedrooms after selling their starter homes: NAR found that the median age of a repeat home buyer last year was 58. In 1981, it was 36 years old.

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DAILY UPDATE: Stocks Rocket Back for Highest 2024 Close as Key Inflation Updates Loom

Posted on January 9, 2024 by Dr. David Edward Marcinko MBA

By Staff Reporters

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Here is where the major benchmarks ended:

Bond yields and stock prices often move inversely to each other, in part because higher interest rates on virtually risk-free bonds lower the premium investors can expect from riskier assets like stocks, making it less appealing to buy equities. Last week, the 10-year Treasury yield briefly increased to 4.10%, near a three-week high, before dropping back near 4% Monday.

  • The S&P 500 index was up 66.30 points (1.4%) at 4,763.54; the Dow Jones Industrial Average was up 216.90 points (0.6%) at 37,683.01; the NASDAQ Composite was up 319.70 points (2.2%) at 14,843.77.
  • The 10-year Treasury note yield (TNX) was down about 3 basis points at 4.015%.
  • The CBOE® Volatility Index (VIX) was down 0.28 at 13.07.

Semiconductors shares were among the strongest performers, helped by a surge of 6.4% in Nvdia Corp. (NVDA), the top 2023 performer in the S&P 500 with a gain of 239%. Small-cap stocks were also firm as were consumer discretionary and communication services. The Russell 2000® Index (RUT) gained 1.9% to partly climb back from last week’s 3.7% drop.

Energy shares were soft because crude oil futures sank nearly 4% following reports Saudi Arabia lowered its prices.

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DAILY UPDATE: Crypto-Currency, ETFs and the Stock Markets

Posted on January 8, 2024 by Dr. David Edward Marcinko MBA

By Staff Reporters

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The Markets as of 10:00am ET. Here’s what these numbers mean.
Markets: One week into 2024, stocks and bonds are off to their worst start in 21 years as investors maybe got a bit ahead of their skis in anticipating Fed rate cuts.

This week, Wall Street will be focused on fresh inflation data and the beginning of Q4 earnings season.

                        

Bitcoin ETF cleared for launch? The first spot bitcoin ETF—could be approved by regulators this week in what would be a watershed moment for Wall Street’s embrace of digital tokens. The hype around these proposed funds, which would allow regular investors to gain exposure to bitcoin without buying it directly, drove bitcoin’s price up 162% over the past year.

Here is where the major benchmarks ended:

  • The S&P 500 Index was up 84.15 points (1.9%) at 4,495.70; the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJI) was up 489.83 points (1.4%) at 34,827.70; the NASDAQ Composite (COMP) was up 326.64 points (2.4%) at 14,094.38.
  • The 10-year Treasury note yield (TNX) was down about 18 basis points at 4.453%.
  • CBOE’s Volatility Index (VIX) was down 0.60 at 14.16.

The small-cap focused Russell 2000 Index (RUT), which has lagged large-cap benchmarks for most of the year, jumped more than 5% Tuesday. Small-caps are often seen as being more exposed to the economic cycle and had suffered because of concerns that high interest rates could push the economy into recession.

Other interest rate-sensitive sectors, such as real estate, materials, and utilities, also saw outsize gains.

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REAL ESTATE: Commissions

Posted on November 6, 2023 by Dr. David Edward Marcinko MBA

By Staff Reporters

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A federal jury in Missouri last week found the National Association of Realtors and large brokerages conspired to keep commissions artificially high, finding them liable for $1.8 billion in damages.

MORE: https://medicalexecutivepost.com/2023/01/19/real-estate-for-physician-investors/

This decision could have a major impact on anyone buying or selling a home. For one, it could lead to a 30% decrease in the $100 billion Americans pay in real estate commissions every year, according to investment banking firm Keefe, Bruyette & Woods (KBW).

MORE: https://medicalexecutivepost.com/2022/12/07/daily-update-down-real-estate-and-down-markets/

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DAILY UPDATE: Realtors Liable for $1.8-B as US Millionaires and Stock Markets Rise Anew

Posted on November 1, 2023 by Dr. David Edward Marcinko MBA

By Staff Reporters

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KANSAS CITY, Mo.—A federal jury just found the National Association of Realtors and large residential brokerages liable for about $1.8 billion in damages after determining they conspired to keep commissions for home sales artificially high. The verdict could lead to industry wide upheaval by changing decades-old rules that have helped lock in commission rates even as home prices have skyrocketed—which has allowed real-estate agents to collect ever-larger sums. It comes in the first of two antitrust lawsuits arguing that unlawful industry practices have left consumers unable to lower their costs even though internet-era innovations have allowed many buyers to find homes themselves online.

Real Estate for Physicians: https://medicalexecutivepost.com/2023/01/19/real-estate-for-physician-investors/

The Sitzer/Burnett class action lawsuit alleged that some of the nation’s largest real estate companies, including NAR, Keller Williams, Anywhere (formerly, Realogy), RE/MAX, Berkshire Hathaway’s HomeServices of America and two of its subsidiaries conspired to inflate commissions.

Commercial Real Estate for Physicians: https://medicalexecutivepost.com/2022/05/03/on-doctors-investing-in-commercial-real-estate/

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  • Over 12% of American families, or over 16 million, are millionaires, per the WSJ.
  • Median net worth for the 80th-90th income percentile saw net worth gains of 69% from 2019 to 2022.
  • The upper-middle class is growing and becoming wealthier, particularly among those aged 55-74.

It’s not just the top 1% that’s getting richer — over 16 million American families now have a net worth over $1 million. That’s over 12% of American families, according to a Wall Street Journal analysis of the Federal Reserve’s Survey of Consumer Finances of over 4,600 American households. This compares to just 9.8 million families who were millionaires in 2019, the WSJ found.

Physician Finances: https://marcinkoassociates.com/financial-planning/

The analysis further noted how nearly eight million families have wealth over $2 million, compared to 4.7 million in 2019. This was particularly pronounced among families in the 55-74 age range. On the whole, median net worth — which measures household assets like houses and vehicles, minus debts like mortgages and student loans — rose an inflation-adjusted 37% between 2019 and 2022 up to around $193,000. Meanwhile, the average net worth rose to over $1 million, though this is skewed by extremely wealthy Americans.

Net worth has increased for all income percentiles even amid rising interest rates, though while the top 10% jumped from $1.84 million to $2.65 million, the bottom 20% rose from $10,780 to $16,900.

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Finally, here is where the major US stock market benchmarks ended:

Economists expect the Fed to leave interest rates unchanged today, allowing previous rate increases to take greater hold of the economy and granting the central bank time to assess whether another hike will be necessary. Investors and policymakers will closely scour comments made by Fed Chair Jerome Powell for clues about the central bank’s path over the remainder of the year.

  • The S&P 500 Index was up 26.98 points (0.7%) at 4,193.80, down 2.2% for the month; the Dow Jones Industrial Average was up 123.91 points (0.4%) at 33,052.87, down 1.4% for the month; the NASDAQ Composite was up 61.76 points (0.5%) at 12,851.24, down 2.8% for the month.
  • The 10-year Treasury note yield was up about 3 basis points at 4.909%.
  • CBOE’s Volatility Index (VIX) was down 1.61 at 18.14.

Real estate and financial shares were among the strongest performers Tuesday. Semiconductor companies were also higher. Energy shares lagged as crude oil futures extended their slide, dropping to near $81 a barrel to end at a two-month low. The U.S. dollar index (DXY) strengthened to near 11-month highs in the wake of a Bank of Japan (BoJ) policy shift.

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DAILY UPDATE: The Turkish Lira Plunges, Janet Yellen Speaks and the Markets Diverge

Posted on June 8, 2023 by Dr. David Edward Marcinko MBA

By Staff Reporters

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Turkey’s lira plunged 7% to a record low yesterday in its biggest selloff since a historic 2021 crash, a move traders said is a “strong signal” that Ankara is moving away from state controls toward a freely traded currency. The currency has come under increasing pressure since President Tayyip Erdogan was re-elected on May 28. It was trading at 23.18 against the dollar at 1500 GMT, after touching a record low of 23.19, bringing its losses this year to around 20%.

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Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen, in her first interview since the U.S. debt-ceiling was lifted last week by Congress, warned on Wednesday about the potential for banks to feel strain from their exposure to weakening commercial real estate valuations. Yellen was asked by CNBC “Squawk Box” host Andrew Ross Sorkin about if she’s worried about the state of estimated $20.7 trillion commercial real-estate market, particularly the office, and if weakness in the sector could potentially spark more bank failures.

“Well, I do think that there will be issues with respect to commercial real estate,” Yellen said. “Certainly, the demand for office space since we’ve seen such a big change in attitudes and behavior toward remote work has changed and especially in an environment of higher interest rates.”

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The equities market diverged today between a small handful of strong-performing mega-cap companies, which delivered most of the gains recently in the big benchmark indexes, and the lagging majority. Such concentration suggests a weakness below the headline numbers that could become a problem down the line.

Here is where the major benchmarks ended today:

  • The S&P 500® Index (SPX) was down 16.33 points (0.4%) at 4267.52; the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) was up 91.74 (0.3%) at 33,665.02; the NASDAQ Composite (COMPX) was down 171.52 (1.3%) at 13,104.90.
  • The 10-year Treasury note yield (TNX) was up about 9 basis points at 3.791%.
  • CBOEs Volatility Index (VIX) was down 0.04 at 13.92.

Smaller financial companies were also in the spotlight again, with the KBW Regional Banking Index (KRX) continuing its rebound with a nearly 4% jump. Energy stocks were also strong as crude oil futures climbed more than 1%, and transportation companies also gained. Communication Services led decliners among S&P 500 sectors.

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DAILY UPDATE: Stocks Up, Again!

Posted on May 19, 2023 by Dr. David Edward Marcinko MBA

By Staff Reporters

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  • Markets: Stocks climbed for the second straight day as a last-minute deal to raise the debt ceiling begins to take shape. GOP House Speaker Kevin McCarthy and Democratic Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer signaled their chambers could vote next week on an agreement that would avert the US’ first-ever default.
  • Stock spotlight: Netflix shares popped after the streamer said its cheaper ad-supported plan is off to a hot start. Earlier this week, Netflix said that 25% of its new subscribers opted for the ad tier in regions where it’s available.

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Here is where the major benchmarks ended yesterday:

  • The S&P 500 Index was up 39.28 points (0.9%) at 4198.05; the Dow Jones industrial average was up 115.14 (0.3%) at 33,535.91; the NASDAQ Composite was up 188.27 (1.5%) at 12,688.84.
  • The 10-year Treasury yield was up about 7 basis point at 3.65%.
  • CBOE’s Volatility Index was down 0.78 at 16.09.

The tech sector continued to be one of the market’s strongest performers, with the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index jumping nearly 3% and the Nasdaq-100 closing at a 13-month high. Real estate led decliners among S&P 500 sectors.

Also, the U.S. dollar index surged near a two-month high amid growing confidence the Fed won’t be lowering rates any time soon.

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DAILY UPDATE: Business News Briefs Plus TESLA and the Markets

Posted on April 25, 2023 by Dr. David Edward Marcinko MBA

By Staff Reporters

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1. Regional banks’ plight was Morgan Stanley’s perk. The bank saw nearly $20 billion in new client assets in the wake of the banking crisis that rocked smaller banks like First Republic. Why the bank became a “destination of choice” amid the crisis.

2. Taylor Swift was the only one asking the right question on FTX. The mega star didn’t sign a $100 million sponsorship deal with the crypto exchange because, unlike seemingly everyone in Silicon Valley, she did some form of due diligence.

3. The new-age pension plan. Fidelity and State Street are rolling out annuity options within their 401(k) products, The Wall Street Journal reports. But it comes with a hefty price tag, and not everyone is sold on it.

4. It’s starting to get scary in the housing market. Foreclosure filings were up 22% in Q1 compared to last year, and repossessions are headed in the wrong direction as well.

Finally, Fintel reports that on April 21, 2023, Goldman Sachs maintained coverage of Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA) with a Buy recommendation. As of April 6th, 2023, the average one-year price target for Tesla is $203.14. The forecasts range from a low of $24.58 to a high of $315.00. The average price target represents an increase of 24.63% from its latest reported closing price of $162.99. The projected annual revenue for Tesla is $118,517MM, an increase of 37.75%. The projected annual non-GAAP EPS is $5.70.

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  • The S&P 500® Index was up 3.52 points (0.1%) at 4137.04; the Dow Jones industrial average was up 66.44 (0.2%) at 33,875.40; the NASDAQ Composite was down 35.25 (0.3%) at 12,037.20.
  • The 10-year Treasury yield was down about 7 basis points at 3.50%.
  • CBOEs Volatility Index was up 0.12 at 16.89.

Real estate and financials were among Monday’s weakest-performing sectors, while energy companies led gainers thanks to a jump of about 1% in crude oil futures. The U.S. dollar index fell to about 101.37, its weakest level since mid-April, while Treasury yields eased slightly.

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DAILY UPDATE: Jack Dorsey, Deutsche Bank and the Markets

Posted on March 25, 2023 by Dr. David Edward Marcinko MBA

By Staff Reporters

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Short seller Hindenburg Research has hit another billionaire’s fortune with a report. Jack Dorsey, the co-founder of payments company Block and Twitter, saw his net worth tumble by $526 million, or 11%, to $4.4 billion after the US-based research firm led by Nathan Anderson accused Block of misleading investors in a March 23 report, according to Bloomberg. Dorsey isn’t on the list of the world’s 500 richest persons on the Bloomberg Billionaires Index currently. He was previously featured at number 456 with a net worth of $5.41 billion on March 22nd, per Insider’s scan of the Index on Wednesday.

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Investors sparked a furious selloff in Deutsche Bank AG and thrust one of Europe’s most important lenders into the center of concerns about the health of the global financial system. Shares of Germany’s largest lender tumbled as much as 15%, their third consecutive day of losses, though they later regained some ground and were recently down 10%. The cost to insure against its default using credit-default swaps soared to their highest levels since 2020.

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Chairman Jerome Powell was ambiguous this week about future Federal Reserve moves, suggesting “some additional policy firming may be needed.”

Treasury yields dropped near seven-month lows, a seeming indication of escalating recession worries after the Fed raised its benchmark lending rate nine times to a range of 4.75% to 5% over the past year. The release next week of updated data on consumer confidence, inflation, and economic growth will likely be in focus.

Monetary Policy: https://medicalexecutivepost.com/2023/03/17/the-modern-us-monetary-system/

The swings in stock prices this week “were consistent with the unclear outlook for monetary policy, the banking system, and the broader economy,” says Kevin Gordon, senior investment strategist at Charles Schwab. “More time needs to pass before we know the true impact of the expected tightening in credit conditions.”

  • The S&P 500® Index was up 22.27 (0.6%) at 3970.99; the Dow Jones industrial average was up 132.28 (0.4%) at 32,237.53; the NASDAQ Composite was up 36.56 (0.3%) at 11,823.96.
  • The 10-year Treasury yield was little changed at about 3.374%.
  • CBOE’s Volatility Index was down 0.87 at 21.74.

The real estate sector led the gainers Friday, followed by consumer staples and health care. Financials and consumer discretionary stocks edged lower, and technology stocks were little changed, though the tech-focused NASDAQ Composite still notched its second straight weekly gain. Gold and crude oil futures both declined, while the U.S. dollar strengthened.

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A DENTIST ASKS: How to Invest When There’s Nowhere to Hide?

Posted on September 29, 2022 by Dr. David Edward Marcinko MBA

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By Vitaliy Katsenelson CFA

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How to Invest When There’s Nowhere to Hide
I was having lunch with a close friend of mine. He mentioned that he had accumulated a significant sum of money and did not know what to do with it. It was sitting in bonds, and inflation was eating its purchasing power at a very rapid rate.

He is a dentist and had originally thought about expanding his business, but a shortage of labor and surging wages turned expanding into a risky and low-return investment. He complained that the stock market was extremely expensive. I agreed.*

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REAL ESTATE Investing for Physicians?

Posted on May 22, 2021 by Dr. David Edward Marcinko MBA

OVER HEARD IN THE ADVISOR’S LOUNGE

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Real Estate and Physicians

What I see in my accounting practice is that significant accumulation in younger physician portfolio growth is not happening as it once did. This is partially because confidence in the equity markets is still not what it was; but that doctors are also looking for better solutions to support their reduced incomes.

For example, I see older doctors with about 25 percent of their wealth in the market, and even in retirement years, do not rely much on that accumulation to live on. Of this 25 percent, about 80 percent is in their retirement plan, as tax breaks for funding are just too good to ignore.

What I do see is that about 50 percent of senior physician wealth is in rental real estate, both in a private residence that has a rental component, and mixed-use properties. It is this that provides a good portion of income in retirement.

So; could I add dialog about real estate as a long term solution for retirement?

Yes, as I believe a real estate concentration in the amount of 5 percent is optimal for a diversified portfolio, but in a very passive way through mutual or index funds that are invested in real estate holdings and not directly owning properties.

Today, as an option, we have the ability to take pension plan assets and transfer marketable securities for rental property to be held inside the plan collecting rents instead of dividends.

Real estate holdings never vary very much, tend to go up modestly, and have preferential tax treatment due to depreciation of the property against income.

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