DAILY UPDATE: Hims & Hers, MSFT-AI, Neuralink, FDIC and New Market Highs

Posted on May 22, 2024 by Dr. David Edward Marcinko MBA

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Microsoft unveiled new PCs with AI-powered features.

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Hims & Hers stock soared as much as 38% on the news that it’ll provide GLP-1 injections with the same active ingredient as Ozempic or Wegovy for just $199/month—an 85% discount compared to Wegovy’s ~$1,350 monthly price tag (without insurance).

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FDIC Chair Martin Gruenberg will resign after an investigation found widespread sexual harassment at the agency. But he won’t step down until a successor is named.

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The FDA granted Elon Musk’s neurotech company Neuralink, approval to place its brain chip into a second human test subject using a new method designed to correct issues that arose after its inaugural insertion in January, per the Wall Street Journal.

And, Optum Rx is shaking up its pharmacy model. The business says it will make drug costs more predictable and transparent for clients.

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  • All three indexes ended the day higher after Fed Governor Christopher Waller stopped by CNBC and mentioned he doesn’t think raising interest rates is in the cards, even if the Fed is waiting for more data before making cuts. The NASDAQ continued to hit new all-time highs today as investors place their bets before Nvidia’s earnings announcement tomorrow afternoon, and the S&P 500 hit yet another record.
  • Copper continued to rise as the market comes to terms with the metal’s importance, while oil fell on the news that the Biden administration will release 1 million barrels of gasoline this summer from the Northeast reserve. Meanwhile, ethereum continued to climb on the news that a new ETF may be joining the fray.

Here’s where the major benchmarks ended:

  • The S&P 500 index rose 13.28 points (0.3%) to 5,321.41; the Dow Jones Industrial Average® ($DJI) gained 66.22 points (0.2%) to 39,872.99; the NASDAQ Composite advanced 37.75 points (0.2%) to 16,832.62.
  • The 10-year Treasury note yield (TNX) lost more than 2 basis points to 4.414%.
  • The CBOE Volatility Index® (VIX) fell 0.29 to 11.86.

Banking and consumer staples were among the market’s strongest performers Tuesday, while utility shares extended a sharp upswing over the past month. The Dow Jones Utility Average® ($DJU) added 0.5% and closed at a 12-month high. Transportation companies were among the weakest performers.

In other markets, Gold (/GC) futures slipped from Monday’s record high above $2,454 per ounce, while Silver (/SI) futures ended near a 12-year high around $32.21. Gold futures are still up 17% this year due to several factors, including reports of China’s central bank buying actual gold as well as escalating conflict in the Middle East. Gold is viewed by some as a safe-haven asset during periods of heightened geopolitical tension.

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DAILY UPDATE: Cooling Labor Markets with Unemployment Rate Uptick

Posted on May 6, 2024 by Dr. David Edward Marcinko MBA

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A cooling labor market raises hopes for a rate cut in the summer. The latest Labor Department data shows the US added 175,000 jobs in April, but much less than the 300,000 added in March and also less than economists expected. Meanwhile, the unemployment rate ticked up to 3.9% from 3.8% in March, and wages rose less than anticipated. All that bad news for us was music to the ears of investors who are holding out hope that the Federal Reserve might still cut interest rates this summer despite most recent economic data showing that inflation is sticking around.

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Rate cuts appear to be back on the 2024 menu following Friday’s softer-than-expected jobs report, fueling gains for all three major stock indexes last week. With the report calming worries that inflation is ticking back up, investors now project a 50% likelihood that the Federal Reserve will reduce rates in September.

Coinbase is benefiting from the hype around new bitcoin ETFs. The crypto exchange reported a $1.2 billion quarterly profit last week, and net revenue rose by 115%.

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DAILY UPDATE: The CHIPS and Science Act & the FOMC as Stocks Edge Higher

Posted on April 30, 2024 by Dr. David Edward Marcinko MBA

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It’ll be a big week for hot takes on the US economy, after the Federal Reserve meeting Tuesday and Wednesday and the April jobs report dropping Friday. Because inflation has been sticking around, the FOMC is expected to hold interest rates steady at this meeting and for the foreseeable future. On the jobs front, economists are projecting another strong month for employment growth.

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In 2022, with bipartisan support, Congress passed the CHIPS and Science Act, an ambitious plan to juice domestic manufacturing of a product vital to national security: semiconductors. Two years later, the government has doled out more than half of the CHIPS Act’s $39 billion in incentives. According to the Financial Times …

  • Chip companies and their suppliers have announced US investments of $327 billion over the next 10 years, per the Semiconductor Industry Association.
  • Construction of manufacturing facilities for computing and electronics devices has jumped 15x, government data shows.
  • By 2030, the US will likely produce around 20% of the world’s most advanced chips, according to USCommerce Secretary Gina Raimondo. Right now, it’s making 0%.

The proposed factories are massive and could transform regional economies. Micron, which received $6.1 billion in federal grants last week, plans to invest $100 billion in a manufacturing campus near Syracuse.

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Here’s where the major benchmarks ended:

  • The S&P 500® index (SPX) rose 16.21 points (0.3%) to 5,116.17, its highest close in over two weeks; the Dow Jones Industrial Average® ($DJI) gained 146.43 points (0.4%) to 38,386.09, the NASDAQ Composite® ($COMP) advanced 55.18 points (0.4%) to 15,983.08.
  • The 10-year Treasury note yield (TNX) fell more than 5 basis points to 4.616%.
  • The CBOE Volatility Index® (VIX) declined 0.36 to  14.67.

Communication services shares were among the market’s weakest performers Monday, reversing last Friday’s upswing as Alphabet (GOOGL) dropped more than 3% and Meta Platforms (META) lost 2.4%. Banks and retailers were also soft. The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index (SOX) climbed for the sixth-straight day and ended near a three-week high even though its biggest member, Nvidia (NVDA), ended little changed.

In other markets, the U.S. Dollar Index ($DXY) faded from early gains but is still up about 1% in April, driven by expectations domestic rates will remain high. “The U.S. dollar’s strength continues to reflect the relative strength of the economy and the wide interest rate differentials between the United States and other major developed markets,” Schwab Center for Financial Research analysts said in a report.

Despite last week’s strength, the S&P 500 index and the NASAQ Composite are still down 2.6% and 2.4%, respectively, for April and on track to break five-month winning streaks.

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Humana expects to exit Medicare Advantage (MA) markets in 2025, company executives told investors. The company reported its first quarter earnings April 24th. Humana posted $741 million in net income in the first quarter of 2024, beating investor expectations, but pulled its 2025 earnings guidance. 

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DAILY UPDATE: Nvidia in Medicine, IRs and the Big Banks

Posted on April 8, 2024 by Dr. David Edward Marcinko MBA

By Staff Reporters

SAFE SOLAR ECLIPSE DAY

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NVIDIA is accelerating the pace of healthcare innovation! Last week they unveiled a suite of AI microservices for developers, launched cutting-edge healthcare AI tools, and deepened their collaborations with giants like Johnson & Johnson. Plus, they’re ramping up investment in clinical trials and drug design. 

Do you ever struggle with finding the best sources of information about healthcare AI? Check out my new video, where I share my favorite newsletters, websites, sub-reddits, and a list of must-follow experts. With this toolkit, you won’t miss anything important. Also, I hope you enjoyed a restful and Happy Spring Break – should you celebrate it!

Bertalan Meskó, PhD
The Medical Futurist

READ MORE: https://www.cnbc.com/2024/03/24/nvidias-ai-ambitions-in-medicine-and-health-care-are-becoming-clear.html?utm_source=The+Medical+Futurist+Newsletter&utm_campaign=f5908296a8-EMAIL_CAMPAIGN_2024_04_07_Resend&utm_medium=email&utm_term=0_efd6a3cd08-f5908296a8-399696053&mc_cid=f5908296a8&mc_eid=40fee31c25

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Last week, several Fed officials said they were in no rush to slash interest rates in 2024, which investors have been banking on this year. Meanwhile, oil prices have risen to five-month highs due to concerns about supply shocks in key areas around the world.

And, Wall Street is preparing for a crammed week, with crucial inflation data dropping on Wednesday and big banks (JPMorgan, Wells Fargo, Citigroup) inaugurating earnings season on Friday. The pressure is on companies to post beefy profits to back up their strong stock performance in Q1.

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A-POLITICAL: Investing SPAC Initial Public Offering of DJT Stock

Posted on March 26, 2024 by Dr. David Edward Marcinko MBA

By Staff Reporters

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Markets: The stock market kicked off its short trading week down as some investors questioned the enthusiasm around the Fed’s recent assurances that it’s still planning three rate cuts this year.

But Digital World Acquisition Corporation roared as the shell company that’s merging with Donald Trump’s Truth Social and will begin trading under its new ticker, DJT, today.

Digital World Acquisition Corp. (Nasdaq: DWAC) is a special purpose acquisition company formed for the purpose of effecting a merger, capital stock exchange, asset acquisition, stock purchase, reorganization or similar business combination with one or more businesses.

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And, it popped after Trump got good news from a New York appeals court.

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DAILY UPDATE: Warm Inflation Mixes Stocks

Posted on March 14, 2024 by Dr. David Edward Marcinko MBA

By Staff Reporters

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DEFINITION: Creeping, or mild, inflation occurs when prices rise slowly. According to the Federal Reserve, when prices increase by 2% or less, it benefits economic growth. This kind of mild inflation makes consumers expect that prices will keep going up, which boosts demand.

And so, inflation was a bit warmer last month as consumer prices rose 3.2% in February, the Labor Department just reported, up from the 3.1% that economists expected. That marks the second straight month that inflation came in higher than forecast. The data reinforces the Fed’s position to wait until inflation is tamed before cutting interest rates. Still, the central bank is widely expected to cut rates sometime later this year despite yesterday’s less-than-ideal report. It will meet next week to continue deliberations on a potential rate reduction.

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Here’s where the major benchmarks ended:

  • The S&P 500® index (SPX) fell 9.96 points (0.2%) to 5,165.31; the Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 37.83 points (0.1%) to 39,043.32; the NASDAQ Composite® (COMP) declined 87.87 points (0.5%) to 16,177.77.
  • The 10-year Treasury note yield (TNX) rose almost 4 basis points to 4.192%.
  • The CBOE Volatility Index® (VIX) fell slightly to 13.75. 

Energy shares were among the market’s strongest performers Wednesday behind gains in crude oil prices. Brent crude futures (/BZ), the global benchmark, rose above $84 to end at their highest level since early November after Ukrainian strikes on oil refineries in Russia stirred concern over supply disruptions. The S&P Energy Index ($SP500#10) jumped 1.5% and reached its highest level since late October, while the S&P 500 Materials Index ($SP500#15) rose almost 1% and ended at a record high.

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DAILY UPDATE: Inflation Data Pending

Posted on March 11, 2024 by Dr. David Edward Marcinko MBA

By Staff Reporters

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Key inflation data incoming: February’s consumer price index report on Tuesday will provide fresh data to help the Fed decide when to lower interest rates. Last week, Chair Jerome Powell said he needed “just a bit more evidence” that inflation was coming back down to normal levels before reducing rates, though “we’re not far from it,” he acknowledged.

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DAILY UPDATE: Nike Stock Down but US Debt Burden Up Per Household

Posted on February 18, 2024 by Dr. David Edward Marcinko MBA

By Staff Reporters

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Nike is planning to restructure and lay off 2% of its staff, more than 1,500 people, as consumers pull back on spending.

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If the total U.S. debt were divided by every household in the country, each household would get about $252,000, according to a September tweet from The Kobeissi Letter.

And, Jerome Powell, the Chair of the Federal Reserve, shared his concerns regarding the fiscal direction of the United States during a “60 Minutes” interview with Scott Pelley. 

Powell said, “The U.S. is on an unsustainable fiscal path,” emphasizing that the growth of the national debt is outstripping the growth of the economy. 

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DAILY UPDATE: New CDC Covid-19 Guidelines as the Stock Markets Go Lower

Posted on February 17, 2024 by Dr. David Edward Marcinko MBA

By Staff Reporters

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The CDC may update Covid-19 isolation guidelines from five days to 24 hours if an individual is fever-free without medication—standardizing the protocol for the disease with the same rule for the flu and RSV. (the New York Times)

Here’s where the major benchmarks ended:

Stocks slumped into the long weekend yesterday, snapping a five-week weekly winning streak when they fell in the wake of wholesale price data that shows inflation is probably not as tamed as the Fed would like it to be. But Coinbase gave the latest indication that the crypto winter has thawed. The crypto exchange’s stock rose after it reported its first quarterly profit in two years.

  • The S&P 500 index fell 24.16 points (0.5%) to 5,005.57, down 0.4% for the week; the Dow Jones Industrial Average® (DJI) lost 145.13 points (0.4%) to 38,627.99, down 0.1% for the week; the NASDAQ Composite® (COMP) declined 130.52 points (0.8%) to 15,775.65, down 1.3% for the week.
  • The 10-year Treasury note yield (TNX) rose over 4 basis points to 4.285%.
  • The CBOE Volatility Index® (VIX) rose 0.23 to 14.24.

Communications services and transportation shares were among the market’s weakest performers Friday, while energy companies firmed behind strength in crude oil futures. The small-cap Russell 2000® Index (RUT) fell 1.4% Friday but still ended the week with a gain of 1.1%, its second straight weekly advance.

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DAILY UPDATE: Stocks Markets Collapse!

Posted on February 14, 2024 by Dr. David Edward Marcinko MBA

By Staff Reporters

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Off-the-charts inflation may be a distant 2022 phenomenon, but we’re not entirely over it. Price growth is still not back to levels that would satisfy Jerome Powell, and shoppers continue to deal with the fallout. Prices grew faster than economists expected last month, according to the consumer price index data the government released yesterday.

They climbed 0.3% in January (slightly more than in December) and 3.1% from a year prior. Excluding food and energy prices, January’s inflation was 0.4%, a bit over December’s reading, and 3.9% more than the prior January. And we point out that things aren’t so bad, since inflation isn’t too far from the Fed’s 2% annual target. But shoppers might argue that just because prices are growing more slowly doesn’t mean things are costing them less.

Here’s where the major benchmarks ended:

  • The S&P 500® index (SPX) fell 68.67 points (1.4%) to 4,953.17, its lowest close since February 5; the Dow Jones Industrial Average lost 524.63 points (1.4%) to 38,272.75; the NASDAQ Composite® (COMP) dropped 286.94 points (1.8%) to 15,655.60.
  • The 10-year Treasury note yield gained nearly 15 basis points to 4.316%.
  • The CBOE Volatility Index® (VIX) rose 1.89 to 15.82.

Bank shares were among the worst performers Tuesday amid concerns the CPI numbers suggested the Fed will maintain a higher-for-longer interest rate tack that could crimp lenders’ margins. The KBW Regional Banking Index (KRX) plunged 4.5%. Small-cap stocks, another group sensitive to interest rates, also fell sharply, with the Russell 2000® Index (RUT) sinking 4%.

In other markets, the U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) rallied about 0.7% to its strongest level in nearly three months, reflecting expectations interest rates will remain elevated.

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DAILY UPDATE: ARK and Palantir Growth

Posted on February 12, 2024 by Dr. David Edward Marcinko MBA

By Staff Reporters

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Wall Street eyes earnings, inflation report: It’s another big earnings week with Shopify, Coca-Cola, Airbnb, Coinbase, and Crocs among the companies scheduled to report. Investors will also be locked into tomorrow’s consumer price index report, which is expected to show more good news about inflation and raise hopes of a Fed rate cut.

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Cathie Wood and her team have purchased over $160 million worth of Tesla stock since the start of the year. Wood’s flagship fund, the ARK Innovation ETF (NYSEMKT: ARKK), now owns about $640 million of Tesla stock, making the company the fund’s second-largest holding behind Coinbase.

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Palantir reported 20% revenue growth to $608.4 million, ahead of the consensus at $602.4 million. Once again, the company delivered strong profitability with its fifth straight quarter of profitability according to generally accepted accounting principles (GAAP), coming in at $93 million, or a 15% profit margin.

The company experienced particularly strong growth in its U.S. commercial segment, where revenue was up 70% to $131 million, making up nearly a quarter of total sales. U.S. commercial total contract value jumped 107% to $343 million, and for 2024, it forecast 40% growth in U.S. commercial revenue to at least $640 million, showing that companies are starting to adopt an Automated Investment Plan.

On the bottom line, adjusted earnings per share doubled to $0.08, beating analyst estimates, as the company nearly held operating expenses flat once again, and guidance was solid as well.

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DAILY UPDATE: Impending C.P.I. and UPS

Posted on February 11, 2024 by Dr. David Edward Marcinko MBA

By Staff Reporters

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US Economists just polled by The Wall Street Journal forecast a mild 0.2% in increase in consumer prices in the first month of 2024. The inflation rate in the past 12 months would decelerate to 2.9% from a prior 3.4%. If forecasters are right, it would mark the first time the CPI has fallen below 3% in almost three years.

The drama in the report, if there’s any, is likely to come from the more closely followed core CPI that omits food and energy prices. The core rate is viewed as a better predictor of future inflation. Wall Street expects the core rate to rise 0.3% — the upper limit of what the Fed would find tolerable in the short run. The 12-month increase in the core rate could also dip to 3.7% from 3.9%.

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UPS, the shipping giant, which forecast weak demand for parcel delivery in 2024, has said it plans to lay off 12,000 employees to save $1 billion in costs. It’s also mulling a sale of its Coyote brokerage unit.

This shocking announcement was made on January 30th and comes just six months after unionized UPS workers landed a “lucrative” new labor deal, which will see delivery drivers earning an average of $170,000 in annual pay and benefits by the end of the five years. “2023 was a unique, and quite candidly, difficult and disappointing year,” said UPS CEO Carol Tomé during the company’s earnings call. “We experienced declines in volume, revenue and operating profits and all three of our business segments.”

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DAILY UPDATE: Powell Speaks and the Stock Markets Tumble

Posted on February 6, 2024 by Dr. David Edward Marcinko MBA

By Staff Reporters

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As Jerome Powell goes, so goes the market. Stocks tumbled yesterday after Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell went on 60 Minutes over the weekend and said he’s in no rush to cut interest rates. Meanwhile, shares of Estée Lauder jumped ~12% after the cosmetics company announced it was laying off 5% of its employees amid weak demand in Asia.

Here’s where the major benchmarks ended:

  • The S&P 500 index fell 15.80 points (0.3%) to 4,942.81; the Dow Jones Industrial Average dropped 274.30 points (0.7%) to 38,380.12; the NASDAQ Composite® (COMP) declined 31.28 points (0.2%) to 15,597.68.
  • The 10-year Treasury note yield surged nearly 14 basis points to 4.166%.
  • The CBOE Volatility Index® (VIX) fell 0.18 to 13.67.

Materials and real estate sector shares were among the market’s weakest performers Monday, and banks and utilities were also under pressure. Semiconductors were one of the few sectors to post gains. In other markets, the U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) strengthened to its highest level since mid-November amid expectations interest rates will remain elevated. 

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BANKS: JPMorgan Chase, BoA, Wells Fargo and CitiGroup Report

Posted on January 12, 2024 by Dr. David Edward Marcinko MBA

By Staff Reporters

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JPMorgan Chase’s profit fell in the fourth quarter as the lender set aside nearly $3 billion to help refill a government deposit insurance fund. JPMorgan and several major banks are required to pay a bulk of the $16 billion to replenish the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation’s deposit insurance fund (DIF), which was drained after Silicon Valley Bank and Signature Bank failed last year.

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Bank of America’s fourth-quarter profit shrank as the lender took $3.7 billion in combined charges to refill a government deposit insurance fund and phase out a loan index. Its net interest income (NII) – the difference between what banks earn from loans and pay to depositors – fell 5% to $13.9 billion as the company spent more to keep customer deposits and demand for loans stayed subdued amid high interest rates.

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Wells Fargo press release (NYSE:WFC): Q4 Non-GAAP EPS of $1.29 beats by $0.20. Revenue of $20.48B (+2.2% Y/Y) beats by $100M. Shares -1% PM. Fourth quarter 2023 results included: ◦ $(1.9) billion, or ($0.40) per share, of expense from an FDIC special assessment ◦ $(969) million, or ($0.20) per share, of severance expense for planned actions ◦ $621 million or $0.17 per share, of discrete tax benefits related to the resolution of prior period tax matters ◦ Provision for credit losses in fourth quarter 2023 included an increase in the allowance for credit losses driven by credit card and commercial real estate loans, partially offset by a lower allowance for auto loans. The change in allowance for credit losses also included higher net loan charge-offs for commercial real estate office and credit card loans

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Citigroup (C) is in the middle of a complicated restructuring. It made it clear Wednesday that its fourth quarter earnings report Friday will be complicated, too.

The giant New York-based bank said in a regulatory document it will take more than $3 billion in one-time reserves and expenses as part of those fourth quarter results. They include everything from a $1.3 billion reserve build for currency exposure in Argentina and Russia to $780 million in charges related to severance costs and other aspects of a wide-ranging restructuring of the bank led by CEO Jane Fraser.

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BANK: Types

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Inflation Up a Bit While the SEC Approves Spot Bitcoin ETFs

Posted on January 11, 2024 by Dr. David Edward Marcinko MBA

By Staff Reporters

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Inflation climbed from 3.1% to 3.4% in December, a sign the Federal Reserve will continue to have to wrestle consumer price growth down to its desired 2% level. Forecasts had been for a reading of 3.2%.

On a monthly basis, inflation hit 0.3%, while core inflation, which strips away the more volatile costs of food and energy, was 3.9%, down from 4% in November but ahead of forecasts for a reading of 3.8%.

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The Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) officially approved spot bitcoin ETFs yesterday for the first time. The 11 exchange-traded funds will let old-school investors and bitcoin enthusiasts alike access the world’s biggest cryptocurrency without having to keep a long password for a crypto wallet.

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The long-awaited win for the beleaguered crypto industry came after a false start on Tuesday, when someone hacked the agency’s X account that…didn’t have two-factor authentication enabled…and spuriously said the ETFs had been approved.

Crypto investors have been asking for spot bitcoin ETFs since roughly 2013, but the SEC has historically grimaced at the idea of inviting such a volatile asset into the financial system, concerned that a bitcoin ETF could be easily manipulated. Trading could begin as early as today.

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2024: FOMC Interest Rate Cuts?

Posted on December 14, 2023 by Dr. David Edward Marcinko MBA

By Staff Reporters

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The Dow hit an all-time high yesterday after the Federal Reserve hinted at plans to make multiple rate cuts next year. Not having such a good day was Pfizer, which touched a 10-year low after releasing disappointing projections for 2024 because people just aren’t buying Covid products like they used to.

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Fed rate cuts may come in threes next year

The Federal Reserve had investors popping bottles yesterday, not just because it made the expected move of holding interest rates steady for now but also for signaling that there may be multiple interest rate cuts in 2024. Most Fed officials penciled in three quarter-percentage-point cuts in their projections. Fed Chair Jerome Powell said inflation had “eased” but still did his best to keep everyone from getting too excited, saying, “No one is declaring victory. That would be premature.” Even so, markets started pricing in even more aggressive cuts than the projections.

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U.S. ECONOMY: Perhaps a “Soft Landing” After All?

Posted on December 12, 2023 by Dr. David Edward Marcinko MBA

YET- HEALTH CARE IS GROWING!

By Staff Reporters

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The US economy is looking like it could avoid a downturn and achieve a soft landing after all. US employers added a more-than-expected 199,000 workers to their payrolls last month, the Bureau of Labor Statistics said recently. The solid result calmed many analysts’ fears that a steeper economic slowdown is imminent due to the Federal Reserve’s earlier interest rate hikes. And, it brings us closer to the coveted “soft landing” scenario, in which the Fed tames inflation on the economy. For example:

  • The unemployment rate unexpectedly ticked down for the first time since July, to 3.7%.
  • Average hourly pay increased by 0.4% and is now up 4% for the year, beating the projected pace of annual price growth.
  • But the job market isn’t quite what it used to be

Last month’s 199-k jobs created were below the average of 240,000 added in the preceding 12 months. Plus, November hiring was confined to just a handful of industries:

  • Healthcare and the government were responsible for two-thirds of the headcount growth, adding 77,000 and 49,000 jobs, respectively.
  • The manufacturing sector gained 28,000 workers—but that was largely due to folks returning to work after striking against the Big Three automakers.
  • CITE: https://www.r2library.com/Resource/Title/082610254

Finally, in another sign that employers might be pulling back from on-boarding new people, the Labor Department reported earlier this week that job openings in late October were at their lowest since March 2021.

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BONDS: Are Best Right Now?

Posted on December 8, 2023 by Dr. David Edward Marcinko MBA

By Staff Reporters

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The bond market just finished its best month since 1985, according to the Financial Times, with investor optimism creating a surge in bond prices and a plunge in yields (reminder: they move in opposite directions). The yield on the benchmark 10-year US Treasury note dipped below 4.3% for the first time since September. And other economic measures are looking good:

  • The bond rally spilled over to stocks, where the S&P 500 and Dow just clinched their best months since July 2022 and October 2022, respectively.
  • Mortgage rates dropped for the fifth consecutive week, to 7.22%.

Traders are optimistic that the FOMC may be done hiking interest rates. With recent data showing both consumer spending and the job market cooling down—but not too much—economists see the once-aspirational economic soft landing as achievable, which is great news for Wall Street and to avoid a recession).

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JEROME POWELL: Speaks On “Premature” Interest Rate Cuts

Posted on December 3, 2023 by Dr. David Edward Marcinko MBA

By Staff Reporters

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With the Fed’s aggressive rate hikes to curb inflation looking like they’ve finally come to an end thanks to encouraging data on prices falling, investors are starting to look forward to when the central bankers start slashing rates again.

CITE: https://www.r2library.com/Resource/Title/082610254

But Jerome Powell sought to pour some cold water on the rate cut hype cycle during a speech at Spelman College in Atlanta, Georgia yesterday, saying that it was too soon “to speculate on when policy might ease.” However, investors still think he’ll come around: Markets are putting the odds that the Fed will cut rates in March above 50% and are totally convinced it’ll happen by May, according to Bloomberg.

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INFLATION: Cools Down!

Posted on December 1, 2023 by Dr. David Edward Marcinko MBA

By Staff Reporters

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Inflation continues to cool

The Fed’s preferred inflation measure increased 3% in October, down from 3.4% in September and getting closer to the central bank’s much-ballyhooed target of 2%. A drop in gas prices—down 4.9% from the previous month—was a major factor. Increases in core prices, which strip out food and energy costs, also slowed last month. In the last six months, core inflation has grown at a 2.5% annual rate—down significantly from 5.1% last year.

The news means the Fed will likely keep interest rates unchanged at its final 2023 meeting on December 12t and 13th.

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ECONOMY: Still Strong

Posted on October 20, 2023 by Dr. David Edward Marcinko MBA

By Staff Reporters

SPONSOR: http://www.MarcinkoAssociates.com

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In the last 20 months, the US Federal Reserve has jacked up interest rates to a 22-year high to tame soaring inflation. And inflation has come down to about half of its June 2022 peak. But the economy is still strong.

The Fed’s rate-hiking jamboree was expected to slow hiring, spending, and broader economic growth as unfortunate side effects of popping the inflation balloon. However, a series of recent reports shows that the US economy is still roaring in the ’20s:

  • Jobs: Employers smashed expectations by adding 336,000 jobs in September, and the unemployment rate remains at a low level of 3.8%.
  • Spending: Retail sales also blew past estimates in September, a sign that American consumers remain the undisputed shopping world champs. This probably helped: Americans’ household wealth surged 37% from 2019 to 2022, according to Fed data released on Wednesday. That’s more than double the second-highest increase on record.
  • Economy: After the strong retail sales numbers came out this week, Morgan Stanley raised its Q3 economic growth outlook to 4.9% from 4.5%. Context: One year ago this week, Bloomberg economists predicted a 100% chance of a recession…within a year.

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PRIVATE COMPANIES: Raising Capital is Hard ~ No Very Tough!

Posted on October 12, 2023 by Dr. David Edward Marcinko MBA

By Staff Reporters

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The markets are down again and stocks continued their September slump with tech companies getting hit especially hard as investors fretted about another possible Fed rate hike because of data showing prices for manufacturing and services trending upward. It was a mixed bag for the meme stock faithful, with AMC hitting an all-time low after releasing a plan to sell new shares and GameStop rising after-hours thanks to better-than-expected sales last quarter.

MEME: https://medicalexecutivepost.com/2021/10/23/what-are-meme-stocks/

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This all may demonstrate that private companies looking to fund growth in this high-interest rate environment are facing a tough time raising capital amidst falling valuations, according to a new Deloitte survey.

The problem is particularly acute for smaller companies. Many of the companies challenged by capital raising saw themselves putting out the “For Sale” sign within the next six months, which could lead to an M&A boom later this year.

CITE: https://www.r2library.com/Resource/Title/0826102549

“The No. 1 largest factor that people saw as a challenge or a barrier was a decrease in valuations of their business,” Wolfe Tone, vice chair and US and Global Deloitte Private leader, told CFO Brew. “Clearly, increasing interest rates and pricing was closely behind that. Liquidity challenges not far behind that.”

Private companies have been looking to raise capital to fund a range of growth initiatives; meeting talent needs and expanding tech capabilities are at the top of the list, Tone said. Not far behind was “increasing productivity and improving cost structures.”

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THE U.S. DOLLAR: It is Strong!

Posted on August 29, 2023 by Dr. David Edward Marcinko MBA

By Staff Reporters

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The dollar’s still strong—and recent earnings reports have reflected that, for better or worse.

Around this time last year, earnings took a significant forex hit. Power players like Coca-Cola and Procter & Gamble said the strong dollar hurt profits, while others, like Microsoft, cited currency fluctuations in lowered forecasts.

Back then, the dollar was at a 20-year high. In recent months, the dollar has stayed relatively high as a string of economic data suggested interest rates will stay elevated—at least for now. And after Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell suggested the Fed might have to keep raising rates, the US dollar index climbed to its highest since June 1st.

In any case, foreign exchange rates are yet again cropping up as a talking point in recent earnings reports.

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Jobs and Inflation

Posted on August 28, 2023 by Dr. David Edward Marcinko MBA

By Staff Reporters

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  • Markets: Investors weren’t fazed by Jerome Powell’s warning in Jackson Hole that he could raise interest rates even more, sending the S&P 500 and NASDAQ to their first weekly gain in three weeks.
  • Bonds: But, all the chatter around higher rates has pushed US bond yields to decade-plus highs, which has typically been a drag on stocks.
  • Focus: Jerome Powell will again be poring over fresh inflation data (Thursday) and the August jobs report (Friday) to guide his next interest rate move. And we’re in stoppage time of earnings season, but a few companies, including Salesforce, Lululemon, and Dollar General, still have to report.

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About Nvidia [+] and WeWork [-]

Posted on August 21, 2023 by Dr. David Edward Marcinko MBA

By Staff Reporters

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  • Markets: AI leader Nvidia’s earnings will be out on Wednesday, and Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s annual speech will be at the Fed conference in Jackson Hole on Friday.
  • Stock spotlight: WeWork, the co-working company just announced a 1-for-40 reverse stock split in an attempt to avoid getting de-listed from the New York Stock Exchange.

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U.S. ECONOMY: “Soft Landing” Humming Along

Posted on July 28, 2023 by Dr. David Edward Marcinko MBA

By Staff Reporters

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US gross domestic product (GDP) increased at a more-than-expected 2.4% annualized rate last quarter thanks to healthy consumer spending and businesses shelling out on investments. The latest figures show that not only is the US economy not spiraling into a recession due to interest rate hikes, it’s actually getting stronger as the year goes on.

In fact, underlying inflation rose at its slowest pace in two years. This could be a sign of the “soft landing” that FOMC Chair Jerome Powell seeks.

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The European Central Bank also took it a cue from the FOMC and raised interest rates to a 23-year high. Investors think it could be the ECB’s last rate hike this cycle.

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But, according to CNN, Japan’s central bank kept interest rates unchanged today despite rising inflation but hinted that it could gradually abandon years of cheap money, sending the yen soaring and stocks tumbling. The Bank of Japan (BOJ) said it kept unchanged its short-term interest rate at minus 0.1% and maintained its target for the yield on 10-year government bond at around 0%.

But the central bank also said it would adopt a more flexible approach to controlling the yield on government bonds — which affects borrowing costs across the world’s third biggest economy,diluting a key pillar of its longstanding ultra-loose monetary policy.

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After a historic 13-day winning streak, the Dow—along with the other two major indexes—closed lower as its dizzying rise finally succumbed to gravity. There were some strong individual performances, however. Meta kept its impressive 2023 rolling after giving an optimistic earnings report.

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INFLATION: The Interest Rate Balancing Act

Posted on July 27, 2023 by Dr. David Edward Marcinko MBA

By Staff Reporters

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Whether we’ll see another interest rate increase soon depends on what happens between now and the Fed’s next meeting in September. Jerome Powell will be watching to see if consumer prices come down more than they already have, thanks to previous rate hikes.

There are some promising signs that the worst is behind us:

  • Tomorrow, when the government releases the latest personal consumption expenditures price index—the Fed’s preferred measure for tracking inflation—it’s expected to show the lowest inflation increase since the end of 2021. And last month, the consumer price index showed inflation fell to 3%, which is above the Fed’s 2% target but an improvement from last June’s 9.1%.
  • Meanwhile, Coca-Cola—whose prices were 10% higher last quarter compared to Q2 2022—said it’s done marking up drinks for the year, and the CFO of Unilever said the packaged goods giant’s price inflation has peaked (though prices may still get higher).

But the FOMC wants more: Chairman Powell said that for inflation to be truly conquered, the job market, which currently boasts a low unemployment rate of 3.6%, will need to slow.

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DAILY UPDATE: Dow and Fed Up but Markets Down

Posted on July 27, 2023 by Dr. David Edward Marcinko MBA

By Staff Reporters

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The Federal Reserve raised its benchmark interest rate another 0.25% on Wednesday, reviving its inflation fight despite a significant cooldown of price increases in recent months. The rate hike brought the Fed’s benchmark interest rate to a 22-year high of between 5.25% and 5.5%. Inflation has fallen significantly from a peak last summer, but remains at a level one percentage point higher than the Federal Reserve’s target of 2%.

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The Dow on Wednesday rose for a 13th straight day, matching its longest winning streak since 1987. If it closes higher today, it would be a streak not seen since 1897 — about a year after the benchmark was created — when the Dow advanced for 14 sessions in a row. During this latest run, the Dow has outperformed, gaining 5%. That momentum hasn’t been seen in the broader S&P 500 and NASDAQ Composite indexes, however. Both are up just 3% since the Dow’s streak began. The S&P 500 has fallen twice in that time, while the NASDAQ has posted three losing sessions

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Here is where the major benchmarks ended for the day:

  • The S&P 500 Index was down 0.02% at 4,566.75; the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) was up about 82 points (0.23%) at 35,520.12; the NASDAQ Composite was down 17 points (0.12%) at 14,127.28.
  • The 10-year Treasury note yield (TNX) edged down to 3.867%.
  • CBOE’s Volatility Index (VIX) dropped 5 points to at 13.32.

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MARKETS & ECONOMY …. Oh My?

Posted on July 26, 2023 by Dr. David Edward Marcinko MBA

By Staff Reporters

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  • Markets: The Dow is on a run for the ages, extending its winning streak to 12 days. But, Spotify revealing widening losses due to its failed podcasting investments and projected lower revenues. And its stock plunge came despite adding a record number of new subscribers.
  • Economy: All eyes are on the FOMC today: With another rate hike pretty much a lock, investors will seek Jerome Powell’s comments to see whether the Fed is considering any more increases.

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  • Alphabet, which declared a “code red” for Google Search late last year as rivals like ChatGPT and Microsoft’s AI-equipped Bing came on the scene, is chugging right along. Google’s search advertising sales grew to a better-than-expected $42.6 billion. And, most people haven’t made ChatGPT their default search engine.
  • Microsoft beat expectations on its top- and bottom lines and told investors that it had spent, and would continue spending, gobs of money to build out AI infrastructure.

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Snap. The social media platform just rolled out an AI chatbot, My AI, and boasted that 150+ million users have sent over 10 billion messages to it. But, still fighting against the likes of TikTok for ad spending in a sluggish market, Snap’s sales dropped for the second straight quarter, causing shares to plummet 19% after-hours.

Conference calls: Meta reports earnings today, and Amazon and Apple report next week.

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Recession, Interest Rates and Earnings?

Posted on July 25, 2023 by Dr. David Edward Marcinko MBA

By Staff Reporters

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Recession: Last October, economists surveyed by Bloomberg were predicting a 100% chance of a Recession. But currently, the Dow is riding a 10-day winning streak, and the S&P 500 is just over 5% away from its all-time high. This week, Wall Street will be glued to the Fed’s interest rate announcement and a heavy slate of earnings.

Final Fed rate hike? The Federal Reserve will likely announce another interest rate increase this week, but this could be the final hike in its 16-month quest to bring down inflation. If the Fed hikes 25 basis points as expected, interest rates would be at their highest level since 2001.

Earnings galore: Corporate America’s A-list will report Q2 earnings this week, including Meta, Alphabet, Microsoft, McDonald’s, Coca-Cola, and Exxon Mobil. In all, about one-third of companies in the S&P 500 will give financial updates over the next five days, so we should get a good look into the health of a bunch of different industries.

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INSTANT BANK PAYMENTS? The “FedNow” 24/7 Service

Posted on July 21, 2023 by Dr. David Edward Marcinko MBA

By Staff Reporters

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According to Morning Brew, the US banking system is about to speed up, potentially eliminating those frustrating waiting days it can take for money to hit your account. The Fed is launching its FedNow instant payment service later this month. The new system will enable banks to send each other cash instantly, 24/7, as an alternative to the existing system that runs only during regular business hours and often takes days to move money.

FedNow could put America’s banking system on track to catch up to countries like India and Nigeria, where high-speed payments are as common. The US does already have an instant payments system, but it’s private rather than government-backed, and it hasn’t been widely adopted. It’s mostly only used by big banks, and only 1.4% of US transactions happen in real time, according to payment systems company ACI Worldwide.

FedNow enabled services will soon likely appear at the 41 banks that have been certified to participate so far.

  • People moving money between banks or paying bills could complete their transactions in seconds without the need to plan payments days in advance.
  • Businesses will be able to access customer payments immediately and to send workers payments more frequently with instant direct deposit rather than the usual payroll cycle.

BUT … Faster payments could mean faster bank runs, too!

Some experts worry that allowing people to drain their bank accounts instantaneously could make SVB-style bank runs more likely. Smaller banks struggling with liquidity would have even less time to react to customer panic and get collateral for emergency government loans to cover fleeing cash.

But there are safeguards built in. FedNow has a transaction limit of $500,000, and banks can set their own ceilings to ensure that customers don’t pull their deposits.

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SPOTLIGHT: 23 Banks and 1 Stock

Posted on June 29, 2023 by Dr. David Edward Marcinko MBA

By Staff Reporters

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The 23 biggest banks all passed a stress test that simulated a severe recession, the Federal Reserve said yesterday.

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  • Markets: Stocks ended mixed yesterday after Jerome Powell (and other major central bankers around the world) signaled that more interest rate hikes are as inevitable. In fact, Jerome Powell hinted he couldn’t rule out two rate raises in a row.
  • Stock spotlight: AI-chip hero Nvidia fell on reports that the US is considering even more restrictions on chip exports to China.

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DAILY UPDATE: Markets Fall on Jerome Powell’s Testimony

Posted on June 22, 2023 by Dr. David Edward Marcinko MBA

By Staff Reporters

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Wall Street’s major averages yesterday, on Wednesday, ended lower for a third straight session, weighed down by losses in growth stocks. And, sentiment was dampened by Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell’s largely hawkish reiteration that more rate hikes were likely.

Powell in his published opening remarks to his two-day testimony to Congress said that nearly all policymakers expect that interest rates would have to be raised further by the end of the year. The Fed chief then, in responses to questions from lawmakers, said that it may “make sense” for the central bank to raise rates at a “more moderate pace” going forward.

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So, here is where the major benchmarks ended:

  • The S&P 500 Index was down 23.02 points (0.5%) at 4,365.69; the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) was down 102.35 (0.3%) at 33,951.52; the NASDAQ Composite was down 165.10 (1.2%) at 13,502.20.
  • The 10-year Treasury note yield (TNX) was little changed at 3.727%.
  • Cboe’s Volatility Index (VIX) was  was down 0.68 at 13.19.

Technology shares were among the weakest performers Wednesday, with the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index (SOX) dropping nearly 2% to near a two-week low. Regional banks were also lower.

Energy stocks led sector gainers as crude oil futures jumped nearly 2% to a two-week high on hopes for stronger demand from China. Volatility based on the VIX sank to its lowest level since January 2020.

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CPI REPORT: May Round-Up 2023

Posted on June 14, 2023 by Dr. David Edward Marcinko MBA

By Staff Reporters

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DEFINITION: A consumer price index (CPI) is a price index, the price of a weighted average market basket of consumer goods and services purchased by households. Changes in measured CPI track changes in prices over time.

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4 Key Points from the Report

1. Energy is doing a lot of the work. Cheaper energy played a major role in pulling inflation down to 4% last month from 4.9% in April, per Axios. Gas prices plunged almost 20% from last year, when Russia’s invasion of Ukraine sent fuel costs to the moon, while broader energy prices fell nearly 12%.

2. “Revenge spending” is down. Once COVID pandemic lock downs lifted, Americans splurged on vacations, leisure, and recreation (new pickle ball paddles!) in what economists dubbed “revenge spending.” Now that everyone has taken their week long trip to Italy, there are signs that revenge spending is waning: Airfare prices dropped 13% annually in May and, according to the US Travel Association, hotel demand is below 2019 levels. Bad for your Instagram, but good for inflation.

3. Food prices are up. The cost of food ticked up 0.2% in May from April after staying flat in the previous two months, showing how inflation has persisted on grocery store shelves. But not all aisles are created equal—the price of eggs dropped nearly 14% from April (the biggest one-month drop since 1951), while fruit and veggie prices rose 1.3%.

4. More than anything else, rent is propping up inflation. Shelter costs are the largest category in the CPI report, and they’re still on the upward march, climbing 8.7% from a year earlier. The good news: Economists say this government data doesn’t reflect on-the-ground information, such as reports of softening rent by Zillow and Apartment List. Shelter costs in the CPI are expected to decline during the second half of the year.

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NASDAQ: Index Falls

Posted on June 13, 2023 by Dr. David Edward Marcinko MBA

By Staff Reporters

Markets: With investors keeping their fingers crossed that the Fed will pause its rate hikes when it meets tomorrow, the S&P 500 climbed to its highest in over a year yesterday, buoyed in part by Apple closing at a record high for the first time since January 2022.

  • Stock spotlight: The NASDAQ index has been on fire lately, but NASDAQ’s own stock fell after it announced plans to buy financial software-maker Adenza for $10.5 billion—its biggest purchase ever—as the company works to diversify its business beyond stock exchanges.

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DAILY UPDATE: The US Economy and Bureau of Labor Statistics Reports

Posted on June 4, 2023 by Dr. David Edward Marcinko MBA

By Staff Reporters

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The US kept adding jobs according to new data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics. The economy gained 339,000 pay-rolled employees in May, more than in each of the preceding three months and way more than the 190,000 Dow Jones predicted (to be fair, expert estimates low-balled 13 of the last 16 job reports, according to CNBC. This growth happened despite climbing interest rates, inflation, recent bank failures, and a nerve-racking debt ceiling standoff that threatened to destroy the economy And, Wall Street interpreted the data as a big green “buy” sign. For example:

Stocks leaped up last week as investors celebrated the deal to lift the debt ceiling being showed that the economy is still going strong. In fact, Lululemon stretched toward the heavens after beating earnings expectations thanks to a 24% year over year jump in sales.

But not all indications pointed to the hot streak continuing indefinitely.

The unemployment rate inched, wage growth slowed, and workers appear less self-assured in the labor market:

  • The self-employed lost 369,000 people from its ranks in May, a possible sign that folks might be ditching the self-employment for the security of a traditional employer.
  • And, recent data shows the quit rate has declined from an all-time high in late 2021, bringing an end to the pandemic job-hopping trend dubbed the Great Resignation.
  • Ultimately, the Fed will have to use the conflicting and mixed economic indicators to decide whether to further crank up interest rates at their next meeting. The Federal Reserve has been hinting that it might cease raising interest rates, and investors seem convinced the central bank will follow through and at least “skip” a hike this month even though the labor market is still radiating heat.

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The CPI Report and Inflation

Posted on May 11, 2023 by Dr. David Edward Marcinko MBA

By Staff Reporters

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Stocks were a mixed bag yesterday after the consumer price index showed prices rose 4.9% last month, marking the 10th month in a row of cooling inflation and the first time inflation has dipped below 5% in two years. That’s still higher than the Fed’s 2% target, but it leaves space for Jerome Powell to chill out a bit. Tech stocks got a boost from that news, especially Google’s parent, Alphabet, which also benefited from rolling out its new AI.

CITE: https://www.r2library.com/Resource

What drove the markets?

Economists polled by the Wall Street Journal had forecast the CPI increasing 0.4% and advancing 5.0% over the past year. The core inflation rate rose 0.4% in April for the second straight month, in line with economists forecasts. For the year, the core inflation rate, excluding food and energy prices, increased 5.5% down from a 5.6% rise in March.

“The below 5% headline CPI number is a sigh of relief to a market on edge,” said Alexandra Wilson-Elizondo, co-head of portfolio management for multi asset solutions at Goldman Sachs Asset Management.

Traders hoped that the lower-than-expected inflation data may leave room for the U.S. central bank to refrain from raising interest rates further at its June meeting.

“The data today will be interpreted as not hot enough to force the Fed’s hand in June … We do not think this one data point will determine the outcome of the June FOMC meeting because we still have a string of economic data to process between now and then,” wrote Wilson-Elizondo.

“The details of the print suggest that we are still a meaningful distance from the Fed’s 2% target, giving little reason for the Fed to cut this year.”

Investors priced in the Federal Reserve beginning to trim borrowing costs in coming months, a hope that is seen underpinning stocks of late and helping the S&P 500 index move towards the top of the 3,800 to 4,200 range its has held all year.

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BANKS: New Federal Reserve Rules?

Posted on May 1, 2023 by Dr. David Edward Marcinko MBA

Detailing Oversight Lapses

By Staff Reporters

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The Fed says it’s time for new bank rules

Just in time for a new looming bank failure, the Federal Reserve issued a 102-page report dissecting the corpse of Silicon Valley Bank. Meanwhile, FRB [First Republic Bank] FRB was just sold to JPMorgan Chase.

LINK: https://medicalexecutivepost.com/2023/05/01/daily-update-frb-bidding-sold-to-jpmorgan-chase/

The Fed pointed the finger at both its own inadequate supervision and the bank’s management.

CITE: https://www.r2library.com/Resource

And in an accompanying letter, Michael Barr, the Fed’s vice chair for supervision, called for stricter rules to be applied to more financial institutions and for more tools to be given to regulators to bring firms with poor capital planning and risk management into line.

MORE: https://www.wsj.com/articles/jpmorgan-pnc-bid-to-buy-first-republic-as-part-of-fdic-takeover-aeb936a0?mod=RSSMSN

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https://www.routledge.com/Risk-Management-Liability-Insurance-and-Asset-Protection-Strategies-for/Marcinko-Hetico/p/book/9781498725989

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