DAILY UPDATE: The US Economy and Bureau of Labor Statistics Reports

Posted on June 4, 2023 by Dr. Marcinko

By Staff Reporters

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The US kept adding jobs according to new data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics. The economy gained 339,000 pay-rolled employees in May, more than in each of the preceding three months and way more than the 190,000 Dow Jones predicted (to be fair, expert estimates low-balled 13 of the last 16 job reports, according to CNBC. This growth happened despite climbing interest rates, inflation, recent bank failures, and a nerve-racking debt ceiling standoff that threatened to destroy the economy And, Wall Street interpreted the data as a big green “buy” sign. For example:

Stocks leaped up last week as investors celebrated the deal to lift the debt ceiling being showed that the economy is still going strong. In fact, Lululemon stretched toward the heavens after beating earnings expectations thanks to a 24% year over year jump in sales.

But not all indications pointed to the hot streak continuing indefinitely.

The unemployment rate inched, wage growth slowed, and workers appear less self-assured in the labor market:

  • The self-employed lost 369,000 people from its ranks in May, a possible sign that folks might be ditching the self-employment for the security of a traditional employer.
  • And, recent data shows the quit rate has declined from an all-time high in late 2021, bringing an end to the pandemic job-hopping trend dubbed the Great Resignation.
  • Ultimately, the Fed will have to use the conflicting and mixed economic indicators to decide whether to further crank up interest rates at their next meeting. The Federal Reserve has been hinting that it might cease raising interest rates, and investors seem convinced the central bank will follow through and at least “skip” a hike this month even though the labor market is still radiating heat.

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BANKS: New Federal Reserve Rules?

Posted on May 1, 2023 by Dr. Marcinko

Detailing Oversight Lapses

By Staff Reporters

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The Fed says it’s time for new bank rules

Just in time for a new looming bank failure, the Federal Reserve issued a 102-page report dissecting the corpse of Silicon Valley Bank. Meanwhile, FRB [First Republic Bank] FRB was just sold to JPMorgan Chase.

LINK: https://medicalexecutivepost.com/2023/05/01/daily-update-frb-bidding-sold-to-jpmorgan-chase/

The Fed pointed the finger at both its own inadequate supervision and the bank’s management.

CITE: https://www.r2library.com/Resource

And in an accompanying letter, Michael Barr, the Fed’s vice chair for supervision, called for stricter rules to be applied to more financial institutions and for more tools to be given to regulators to bring firms with poor capital planning and risk management into line.

MORE: https://www.wsj.com/articles/jpmorgan-pnc-bid-to-buy-first-republic-as-part-of-fdic-takeover-aeb936a0?mod=RSSMSN

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SVB: Grew from the Business Start-Up Ecosystem

Posted on April 26, 2023 by Dr. Marcinko

By Staff Reporters

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DEFINITION: Startups are young companies or ventures that are founded to develop a unique or innovative product, service, or platform, and bring it to market. They are typically in the early stages of their development and face high uncertainty and failure rates. They are usually self-funded by the founders or seek external funding from investors or loans. They aim to grow large beyond the solo founder and disrupt existing industries or create new one.

CITE: https://www.r2library.com/Resource/Title/0826102549

SVB rooted in the startup ecosystem

SVB was relatively small—it had 40,000 customers compared to JPMorgan Chase’s 66 million—but it claimed to bank nearly half of all US tech and life sciences startups last year, including household names like Etsy, Roblox, and Roku. The cultural cachet of having a relationship with SVB as a venture-backed startup was like sporting a New Yorker tote at Whole Foods.

But the reason its loss will leave such a gaping hole in the startup community isn’t that it was cool to name-drop at a networking event. Because the bank was created in 1983 specifically to cater to venture-backed startups, it helped them in ways that most banks can’t—or won’t.

SVB chill loans: According to the MorningBrew, SVB would offer loans to startups more readily than large banks, basing the loans on a company’s ability to raise venture capital funds, not to turn a profit. SVB was also known for being flexible—even if startups breached their loan terms. “They were the easiest money for an unprofitable, early stage to mid-stage tech company,” Irving Investors founder Jeremy Abelson told The Information. And, even small startups received hand-holding services, such as guidance on how to set up their financial infrastructure. Its bankers personally called startups when they secured their first rounds of funding, according to The Information.

Startups now have to deal with big banks

Several founders who previously banked with SVB told Bloomberg that they’re moving their money to Chase and Bank of America, banks considered “too big to fail.”

Startups’ experience at big banks won’t be like their time at SVB. Not only is Jamie Dimon unlikely to call a startup to congratulate them on their Series A, but big banks are also expected to be more tight-fisted with their loans. The Office of the Comptroller of the Currency, a regulator that oversees large US banks, disapproves of loans to companies that are further out than one year from profitability, according to Crunchbase.

The loss of SVB is therefore expected to have a chilling effect on loans to venture-backed startups, aka “venture debt,” which SVB handed out more of than any other bank.

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Fractional Reserve VERSUS Gerbil Banking

Posted on April 23, 2023 by Dr. Marcinko

Cons from the Austrian School of Economics

By Staff Reporters

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According to Coinmena, fractional reserve banking is a system in which banks are only required to have a fraction of bank deposits from their customers backed by actual cash on hand or available for withdrawal. This is done to expand the economy by enabling banks to free idle capital for commercial lending while keeping a sufficient amount for customer withdrawals.

The creation of the fractional reserve?

The fractional reserve system was first established by the Swedish Riksbank in 1668 after establishing the first central bank in the world. The idea came about after banks realized that there is a minimal chance that all the customers would come to claim their money from the bank at once; therefore, instead of hoarding the money in a vault, it could be used to grow and expand the economy through commercial loans. Fractional reserve banking became more popular around the world after the U.S. enacted The Federal Reserve Act of 1913, which created the Federal Reserve Bank, now known as the U.S. Central bank.

CITE: https://www.r2library.com/Resource/Title/0826102549

How does it work?

When a customer deposits money into their bank account, the money is no longer directly theirs. The bank holds custody of the customer deposits, and they provide the customer with a deposit account that they can withdraw their money from upon demand.

The bank now has full control of the money as the custodian. The bank can opt to reserve a small percentage of the deposited amount (fractional reserve) and loan the rest or use it for another commercial purpose. The reserve amount usually ranges between 3% to 10%. Although, during harsh economic times, the central banks can lower this reserve requirement to 0%. The Covid-19 pandemic forced central banks around the world to lower the reserve requirement to help stimulate the economy.

 Example

  • Customer A deposits 100,000 AED in Bank 1. Bank 1 loans Customer B 90,000 AED
  • Customer B deposits 90,000 AED in Bank 2. Bank 2 loans Customer C 81,000 AED
  • Customer C deposits 81,000 AED in Bank 3. Bank 3 loans Customer D 72,900 AED
  • Customer D deposits 72,900 AED in Bank 4. Bank 4 loans Customer E 65,610 AED
  • Customer E deposits 65,610 AED in Bank 5. Bank 5 loans Customer F 59,049 AED

 As you can see, the original amount of 100,000 AED has been expanded to represent deposited money for five accounts, and the total existing money supply is 468,559 AED, including the final loan. This is a basic representation of the money multiplier effect.

The system works on the basic principles of debt. The money deposited into the bank by a customer is considered a debt (liability) on the bank to the customer and an asset for the customer. The banks then loan out this money with an interest rate to make a profit for themselves and have the principal amount to pay back their original debt to the depositor (customer).

Pros & Cons of fractional reserve

Banks have the most benefit from a fractional reserve system as this is the way they make their profits. Additionally, customers can also earn interest through their savings or deposit account paid from the interest profits made by the bank. Governments also support this system because it encourages spending and provides economic stability and growth.

Economists from the Austrian School of Economics argue that this system is unsustainable and risky given that most countries rely on a credit-based system and not hard money. Additionally, a fractional reserve system runs the risk of a bank run. Essentially, if people lose faith in a bank to be able to pay back all the depositor’s money, it would trigger a  “run on the banks” or “bank run.” It is not typical behavior for customers to go claim their money from the bank all at once, but it has happened in the past, with the most notorious example being the 1929 Great Depression in the U.S. In this case, the banks would only be able to pay out only 3% of depositors, equal to the fractional reserve requirement.

More: https://www.sofi.com/learn/content/what-is-fractional-reserve-banking/

Related: https://www.washingtonpost.com/washington-post-live/2023/03/21/former-fdic-chair-sheila-bair-global-banking-system/?utm_campaign=mb&utm_medium=newsletter&utm_source=morning_brew

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GERBIL BANKING

Link: https://fortune.com/2023/03/23/gerbil-banking-preceded-the-great-depression-were-seeing-it-again-today/

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FDIC: Lifting the Insurance Deposit Cap?

Posted on April 6, 2023 by Dr. Marcinko

By Staff Reporters

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Understanding FDIC insurance limits

The FDIC wants to make sure it can cover everyone with a bank account, so to make that happen, it caps how much money it insures. The FDIC says its standard is to cover up to “$250,000 per depositor, per insured bank, for each account ownership category.

CITE: https://www.r2library.com/Resource/Title/082610254

Here’s an example: Let’s say you have $100,000 in your checking account and $150,000 in your savings, all at the same bank. The FDIC classifies those under the same category: single accounts. So you would have hit your FDIC deposit limit. Every additional cent deposited into either account would be uninsured. But if you have money in other banks or other deposit categories, you may have additional coverage.

Could the insured deposit cap get a lift?

At least four US lawmakers—two from each side of the aisle—said they would support raising the cap on FDIC-insured deposits in order to reassure frazzled bank customers that their deposits are safe. The current cap is $250,000 (up from $100k pre-financial crisis), but Democratic Sen. Elizabeth Warren said bumping it up “is a good move.” Opponents of raising the cap say it would only increase risk-taking and bad behavior by banks. Some even argue we should lower it.

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What to Expect After the Silicon Valley Bank [SVB] Collapse

Posted on March 26, 2023 by Dr. Marcinko

By Vitaliy Katsenelson CFA

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Over the past decade, the Federal Reserve has manipulated asset prices by interfering with free markets by deciding what both short-term and long-term interest rates should be. This resulted in an increase in risk-taking behavior among investors.

CITE: https://www.r2library.com/Resource/Title/08

Risk became a four-letter word uttered only by curmudgeons; the only thing investors feared was being left out. The more risk you took, the more money you made – until you lost it all.

RISK: https://www.routledge.com/Risk-Management-Liability-Insurance-and-Asset-Protection-Strategies-for/Marcinko-Hetico/p/book/9781498725989

READ: Silicon Valley Bank’s Downfall: A Cautionary Tale of What’s to Come

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FOMC Hikes Interest Rates 0.25%

Posted on March 22, 2023 by Dr. Marcinko

BREAKING NEWS!

By Staff Reporters

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Dateline: WASHINGTON—The Federal Reserve raised its key short-term interest rate by a quarter percentage point today, pushing ahead with its aggressive campaign to tame inflation despite financial turmoil following Silicon Valley Bank’s collapse.

FOMC officials forecast another quarter point in rate increases this year to a peak range of 5% to 5.25%, in line with its December estimate and lower than the level markets anticipated before SVB’s meltdown.

In a statement after a two-day meeting, the Fed acknowledged recent strains in the nation’s banks and said they will soften the economy but added the financial system is stable.

CITE: https://www.r2library.com/Resource/Title/0826102549

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DAILY UPDATE: The Bitcoin Boost Up!

Posted on March 19, 2023 by Dr. Marcinko

By Staff Reporters

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Bitcoin prices climbed to as high as $27,293 last week, wrapping up the cryptocurrency’s best week since January 2021. And it has Silicon Valley Bank and friends to thank for it. Crypto diehards claim bitcoin’s gains are the result of people losing faith in traditional banking after SVB and Signature imploded (though it’s worth noting that Signature was a big player in the crypto world).

However, after the second-and third-biggest bank failures in history, economists started second-guessing whether the Fed would stick to the plan to hike interest rates again or change course to protect the rest of the very fragile banking industry. That could mean the crypto market, which slid into the dreaded Crypto Winter in the first half of last year because of macroeconomic factors like the Fed’s rate hikes, might finally be approaching spring.

So, according to MorningBrew, the Fed’s interest rate decision next week will likely serve as crypto’s redeux. And despite the banking industry hoping Jerome Powell pauses the interest rate hikes, February’s inflation numbers showed that the Fed may need to stick to its original plan to keep inflation in check.

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BREAKING NEWS: Oil, Distressed Banks and Banking

Posted on March 13, 2023 by Dr. Marcinko

By Staff Reporters

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Saudi Aramco made what is s probably the “highest net income ever recorded in the corporate world,” Saudi Aramco’s CEO Amin Nasser just said. The state-owned oil giant brought in an astonishing $161.1 billion in net income in 2022, up 46.5% from the previous year. Rising oil prices lifted all energy companies last year, but Aramco raked in almost triple ExxonMobil’s 2022 profits (record for any Western oil company).

So, after getting mixed signals about the economy from Friday’s jobs report, the Fed will take a fine-toothed comb to the consumer price index, which drops tomorrow.

CITE: https://www.r2library.com/Resource/Title/082610254

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Banks: At the end of an extremely stressful weekend, depositors of collapsed Silicon Valley Bank were told they would be made whole. Yesterday evening, the US government informed anxious SVB depositors that they’d have access to all the money they stashed with the lender today, even if the amount exceeded the $250,000 limit insured by the FDIC. In addition to backstopping depositors, the Fed is offering additional funding to some banks to limit the contagion from spreading across the banking sector.

And, according to MorningBrew, the Fed’s aggressive action shows how the implosion of Silicon Valley Bank on Friday could have quickly turned into a full-blown banking crisis when markets open this morning.

  • Banking is a confidence game, and if people and businesses felt their uninsured deposits were at risk, they could start pulling money from other banks in a catastrophic bank run.
  • The government had a hard deadline of 9:30am ET this morning to restore confidence in the banking system, and it beat it.
  • However, in their announcement, regulators also noted the closure of a second bank, New York-based Signature Bank, over “systemic risk.” All of Signature’s depositors will be made whole, they said.

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ALERT: HSBC Holdings PLC just said that it purchased Silicon Valley Bank UK Ltd., the U.K. arm of the collapsed Silicon Valley Bank, for 1 pound ($1.20). HSBC said the acquisition will help strengthen its franchise in the U.K. As of March 10th, SVBUK had loans of around GBP5.5 billion and deposits of around GBP6.7 billion, while tangible equity is expected to be around GBP1.4 billion. The acquisition was completed immediately.

The Bank of England said it took the decision to sell SVBUK to stabilize the business, ensure continuity of banking services, minimize disruption to the country’s technology sector and support confidence in the financial system.

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DAILY UPDATE: Credit Suisse Down While US Equities Mixed

Posted on March 9, 2023 by Dr. Marcinko

By Staff Reporters

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  • CREDIT SUISSE:
  • Equities revenue plummeted 95% in the fourth quarter
  • CS earlier informally looked at options for unit -sources
  • CS declined comment on ‘rumors and speculation’, and
  • In the latest piece of troubling news, the beleaguered Swiss bank delayed the publication of its 2022 annual report following a “late call” from the US Securities and Exchange Commission on Wednesday evening. The SEC got in touch over revisions the bank had previously made to its cash flow statements for 2019 and 2020,

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U.S. equities finished mixed following yesterday’s rout, as investors digested a second day of testimony from Fed Chair Jerome Powell. The Chairman remained hawkish in his commentary, where he suggested rates may need to accelerate more than initially expected and may need to stay higher for longer than originally anticipated. Adding to the uncertainty, the afternoon release of the Fed’s Beige Book showed little change from the last installment.

Treasury yields were mixed with the yield curve inversion worsening, and the U.S. dollar was flat after yesterday’s rally. Crude oil prices were lower, and gold was little changed in choppy action. News on the equity front was light, as CrowdStrike topped quarterly earnings estimates and offered upbeat guidance, while UPS reiterated its full-year outlook.

The economic calendar was tilted toward labor data, as job openings dipped but remained elevated, and ADP’s private sector employment report bested forecasts ahead of Friday’s key non-farm payroll release.

Elsewhere, mortgage applications snapped a three-week losing streak, and the trade deficit came in slightly smaller than projected. Asia finished mixed and Europe also diverged, as the global markets processed the testimony from Fed Chairman Powell.

CITE: https://www.r2library.com/Resource/Title/082610254

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DAILY UPDATE: Wall Street’s Hell Week & National Dentist’s Day

Posted on March 6, 2023 by Dr. Marcinko

By Staff Reporters

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National Dentist’s Day falls on March 6th every year. It was established as a way to show appreciation and thanks for dentists. It’s also a way to bring awareness to dentistry so that people will know more about how to care for their teeth. It also encourages people who may have avoided going to the dentist to come in for a checkup.

MORE: https://nationaldentistsday.com/

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“WALL STREET Hell Week: Features several potential landmines for the stock market. One of them is the jobs report on Friday. Employment numbers have been on the rise, and continued strength in the labor market could lead to more interest rate hikes. Another key event this week: FOMC Chair Jerome Powell’s testimony on Capitol Hill. He’s expected to field questions on the trajectory of inflation and the looming debt-ceiling crisis.

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DAILY UPDATE: Larry Summers Speaks About Domestic Economic Activity as the Markets Collapse

Posted on February 25, 2023 by Dr. Marcinko

By Staff Reporters

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According to Bloomberg, former Treasury Secretary Lawrence Summers said worrying signals of a potential sharp drop-off in activity combined with strength in other indicators point toward an uncertain economic outlook.

Here is Why:

Inventories “look to be building up relative to sales.”Companies are “reporting concerns about their order books.”The business sector appears to have a high payroll head-count relative to “the level of output they’re producing.”“Consumer savings are being depleted, with a low savings rate.” And, “there is stuff when you look down the road a bit that has to be substantially concerning about the Wile E. Coyote kind of moment,” reiterating his reference to the cartoon character that falls off a cliff. 

Federal Reserve policymakers will need to “stay nimble and flexible” given the uncertainty, Summers said. The central bank should “resist the pressure to be giving strong signals about what it’s going to do next.”

Finally, the former Treasury chief also reiterated the lack of past examples in which the US managed to avoid a recession when the unemployment rate dropped below 4% and inflation went above 4%. “That’s a powerful historical truth and I think it’s one that’s relevant to our current situation.”

The latest unemployment-rate reading was 3.4%, while the consumer price index climbed 6.4% in January on a year-on-year basis.

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Stocks Fell Following Hot Inflation Report and U.S. equities ended the day and week lower as the markets reacted to a Fed-favored gauge of inflation that came in hotter-than-expected. PCE and Core PCE Price Indexes rose more than anticipated, while personal income increased less than expected, and spending jumped. The moves came as equities have shown some volatility amid festering uncertainty regarding the ultimate economic impact of aggressive global central bank tightening as a result of persistent inflation. In other economic news, new home sales rose, and consumer sentiment was surprisingly revised the upside.

Treasury yields were higher, and the U.S. dollar gained ground, while crude oil prices increased, and gold traded to the downside. Q4 earnings season rounded a corner this week with some second-tier results hitting the tape, as Autodesk disappointed with its guidance and Intuit bested expectations, while Warner Bros. Discovery fell well short of forecasts.

In other equity news, shares of Boeing declined after the company paused delivery of its 787 Dreamliner planes. Asian stocks finished mixed, and markets in Europe fell, with economic data in the respective regions keeping the anxiety over future global monetary policy elevated.

CITE: https://www.r2library.com/Resource/Title/082610254

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The “NO LANDING ECONOMY” – Defined?

Posted on February 18, 2023 by Dr. Marcinko

By Staff Reporters

FINANCIAL JARGON

The notion of a “no landing” scenario for the U.S. economy — as opposed to a hard or soft landing — is the latest topic to dominate discussions among economists and strategists.

DEFINITION?

According to Michael B. Kelley Editorial Director of Yahoo Finance, says that a “no landing” scenario involves the economy continuing to grow despite the Federal Reserve’s best efforts to tamp down inflation with interest rate hikes. And, what does that does it mean? “It’s all about inflation,” Bianco Research President Jim Bianco told Yahoo Finance Live.

“What they want or what they’re hoping for, both at the Fed and on the Street, is that the inflation rate is going to hit 2%,” he explained. “Well, the only way that it’s going to do that — at least the belief is — the economy has to slow. And if it doesn’t slow, then the inflation rate stays up. And if the inflation rate stays up, the Fed keeps hiking.”

CITE: https://www.r2library.com/Resource/Title/0826102549

Breaking down the 'no landing' buzz: What it means for investors

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LINK: https://flo.uri.sh/visualisation/6180194/embed?auto=1

Given the implication the Fed will continue raising rates until inflation subsides — and, in turn, the economy cools off — some observers argue that there’s no such thing as a “no landing” scenario.

“Because we’re in this highly volatile environment, and because there is so much uncertainty, we’ve now seen a number of different ways to interpret or call what we’re seeing in the economy,” EY Parthenon Chief Economist Gregory Daco told Yahoo Finance this week.

“No landing does not make any sense, because it essentially means the economy continues to expand, and it’s part of an ongoing business cycle and it’s not an event — it’s just ongoing growth,” Daco added. “Doesn’t that entail that the Fed will have to raise rates more, and doesn’t that increase the risk of a hard landing?”

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DAILY UPDATE: Stocks Close Lower

Posted on February 7, 2023 by Dr. Marcinko

By Staff Reporters

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Stocks Lower to Kick off the Week

U.S. stocks declined, continuing losses that came in the wake of a much stronger-than-expected key labor report, which caused FOMC uncertainty to flare back up. The uncertainty came as the employment data followed a decelerated rate hike, and some seemingly less hawkish commentary from the Fed.

CITE: https://www.r2library.com/Resource/Title/0826102549

The economic calendar will deliver some reports today that may garner attention, including data on the trade deficit and consumer credit. Additionally, the FOMC will be headlined by today’s speech from Fed Chair Jerome Powell. Q4 earnings season remained in high gear this week, as Tyson Foods kicked things off in lackluster fashion by missing expectations.

In other equity news, Dell Technologies announced that it plans to reduce its workforce by about 5.0%, or 6,500 jobs, while Public Storage made a hostile takeover bid for Life Storage.

Treasury yields rose, and the U.S. dollar increased, along with crude oil and gold prices. Asia finished mixed, as geopolitical tensions remain elevated after the U.S. shot down what was believed to be a Chinese spy balloon floating over U.S. soil.

Additionally, markets in Europe were mostly lower, trimming some of its strong start to the year.

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US Unemployment Benefits Fall

Posted on February 2, 2023 by Dr. Marcinko

INFLATION STILL LOOMING?

By Staff Reporters

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According to Bloomberg, applications for US unemployment benefits fell for the fourth time in five weeks, underscoring the broad resilience of the job market that threatens to keep inflation elevated. Initial unemployment claims ticked down by 3,000 to 183,000 in the week ended January 28th, the lowest since April, Labor Department data showed Thursday. The median forecast in a Bloomberg survey of economists called for 195,000 applications.

CITE: https://www.r2library.com/Resource/Title/0826102549

Continuing claims, which include people who have already received unemployment benefits for a week or more, fell to 1.66 million in the week ended January 21st. The labor market, while cooling at the margins, is still tight by many measures and remains one of the key hurdles in the Federal Reserve’s fight against inflation. Even though payrolls growth has slowed and companies in technology and banking have laid off staff in recent months, demand for workers still far exceeds supply, which could put upward pressure on wages and broader prices.

RELATED: https://medicalexecutivepost.com/2023/02/02/stock-market-trifecta-a-good-january-launch-for-2023/

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FOMC: Interest Rates Up?

Posted on February 1, 2023 by Dr. Marcinko

By Staff Reporters

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DEFINITION:

According to Wikipedia, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC), a committee within the Federal Reserve System (the Fed), is charged under United States law with overseeing the nation’s open market operations (e.g., the Fed’s buying and selling of United States Treasury securities). This Federal Reserve committee makes key decisions about interest rates and the growth of the United States money supply. Under the terms of the original Federal Reserve Act, each of the Federal Reserve banks was authorized to buy and sell in the open market bonds and short term obligations of the United States Government, bank acceptances, cable transfers, and bills of exchange. Hence, the reserve banks were at times bidding against each other in the open market. In 1922, an informal committee was established to execute purchases and sales. The Banking Act of 1933 formed an official FOMC.

The FOMC is the principal organ of United States national monetary policy. The Committee sets monetary policy by specifying the short-term objective for the Fed’s open market operations, which is usually a target level for the federal funds rate (the rate that commercial banks charge between themselves for overnight loans).

The FOMC also directs operations undertaken by the Federal Reserve System in foreign exchange markets, although any intervention in foreign exchange markets is coordinated with the U.S. Treasury, which has responsibility for formulating U.S. policies regarding the exchange value of the dollar.

The Federal Reserve is set to announce today whether it will impose another interest rate hike, the central bank’s latest move in a months long fight that has eased inflation but risks plunging the U.S. into a recession.

The Fed [FOMC] has put forward a string of borrowing cost increases as it tries to slash price hikes by slowing the economy and choking off demand. The approach, however, risks tipping the U.S. economy into a downturn and putting millions out of work.

CITE: https://www.r2library.com/Resource/Title/0826102549

And so, at a meeting in December 2022, the Fed raised its short-term borrowing rate a half-percentage point, pulling back from three consecutive 0.75% increases and signaling confidence that sky-high inflation could be brought down to normal levels.

Economists expect the Fed to continue softening its approach with a 0.25% rate hike today? The decision comes weeks after a government report showed that inflation slowed in December, marking six consecutive months of easing price increases.

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RECESSION INDICATOR: Inverted Yield Curve?

Posted on January 23, 2023 by Dr. Marcinko

By Staff Reporters

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When economic trouble and/or uncertainty is brewing, it’s not uncommon for the US Treasury yield curve to flatten or even invert. A yield curve inversion, like we’re experiencing now, involves short-term-maturing bonds sporting higher yields than longer-dated Treasury bonds. It’s an indication that investors are worried about the U.S. economic outlook.

For the past 64 years, the Federal Reserve Bank of New York has used the Treasury yield spread between the 10-year bond rate and three-month bond rate to calculate the probability of a U.S. recession occurring within the next 12 months. Over these 64 years, the probability of a recession has topped 25% a dozen times and 40% on eight occasions. 

With the exception of a peak probability of a recession of 41.14% in October 1966, the New York Fed’s recession-forecasting tool hasn’t been wrong if it’s surpassed 40%. In other words, if the New York Fed’s recession probability indicator surpasses 40%, we’ve had a recession within 12 months, without fail, for more than a half-century.

In December 2022, this recession probability tool hit 47.31%. That’s the highest reading since 1981, and a very clear indication that economic activity is expected to slow at some point in 2023.

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UPDATE: Treasury Yields, the Markets and Dr. Mark Mobius Speaks

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Comprehensive Financial Planning Strategies for Doctors and Advisors: Best Practices from Leading Consultants and Certified Medical Planners™

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SUMMER SPEAKS of “False Dawns”

Posted on January 14, 2023 by Dr. Marcinko

By Staff Reporters

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Former Treasury Secretary Larry Summers is worried that investors and economists are becoming overly optimistic after year-over-year inflation cooled to 6.5% in December.

“One has to be careful of false dawns. If you think about it, the good news was inflation running in the 6’s, and that’s still inconceivably high by the standards of two or three years ago,” he told Bloomberg on Friday, adding that his forecast is still that a “recession this year is more likely than not.” 

Since March, Federal Reserve officials have raised interest rates seven times in hopes of taming inflation without sparking a recession, and all the while, economists and Wall Street analysts have debated whether they’ll be successful. Summers has repeatedly found himself in the bears’ camp. In October, he told the Financial Times that it would take “a recession” and “unemployment towards the 6% range” to ensure U.S. inflation is truly gone. 

CITE: https://www.r2library.com/Resource/Title/0826102549

But the economist admitted on Friday that the latest inflation report was “good news”—and it came even though the unemployment rate was just 3.5% in December. He argued that this is evidence that wages aren’t rising too dramatically, which means the Fed may be able to change tactics soon. 

So, what do you think?

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PODCAST: Fractional Reserve Banking

Posted on December 8, 2022 by Dr. Marcinko

By Staff Reporters

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Fractional reserve banking is a system in which only a fraction of bank deposits are backed by actual cash on hand and available for withdrawal. This is done to theoretically expand the economy by freeing capital for lending. Today, most economies’ financial systems use fractional reserve banking.

CITE: https://www.r2library.com/Resource/Title/082610254

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LINK: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gd8B-zrMSYk

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Two Year Treasury Yields = HIGH!

Posted on November 4, 2022 by Dr. Marcinko

By Staff Reporters

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U.S. bond yields just rose to new cycle highs as the fallout from the Federal Reserve’s latest interest rate hike and commentary reverberated across markets. The policy-sensitive 2-year rate broke intermittently above 4.7%, shrinking its spread to the 10-year rate to as little as minus 60.9 basis points in a worrisome sign of the economic outlook. The 2-year yield finished the New York session at its highest level in more than 15 years.

What’s happening

  • The yield on the 2-year Treasury rose 13.1 basis points to 4.699% from 4.568% on Wednesday. Thursday’s level is the highest since July 25, 2007, based on 3 p.m. figures from Dow Jones Market Data.
  • The yield on the 10-year Treasury advanced 6.4 basis points to 4.123% from 4.059% as of late Wednesday. Thursday’s level is the highest since Oct. 24.
  • The yield on the 30-year Treasury climbed 2.9 basis points to 4.151% from 4.122% Wednesday afternoon.

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BREAKING NEWS: The FOMC Raises Short-Term Interest Rate 0.75%

Posted on November 2, 2022 by Dr. Marcinko

By Staff Reporters

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The Federal Reserve jut raised its short-term borrowing rate another 0.75% to slow key areas of the economy and tame inflation, which is at a 40-year high. The central bank said its new target range is 3.75%-4%, the highest level since January 2008.

The aggressive move is the latest in a string of borrowing cost increases imposed by the Fed in recent months as it tries to slash price increases by cooling the economy and choking off demand. The approach, however, risks tipping the U.S. into a recession and putting millions out of work.

The fourth rate hike of 2022 also arrives less than a week before the midterm elections.

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FOMC: Treasuries the Next Financial Crisis?

Posted on October 23, 2022 by Dr. Marcinko

By Staff Reporters

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For months, traders, academics, and other analysts have fretted that the $23.7 trillion Treasury market might be the source of the next financial crisis. Then last week, U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen acknowledged concerns about a potential breakdown in the trading of government debt and expressed worry about “a loss of adequate liquidity in the market.” Now, strategists at BofA Securities have identified a list of reasons why U.S. government bonds are exposed to the risk of “large scale forced selling or an external surprise” at a time when the bond market is in need of a reliable group of big buyers.

“We believe the UST market is fragile and potentially one shock away from functioning challenges” arising from either “large scale forced selling or an external surprise,” said BofA strategists Mark Cabana, Ralph Axel and Adarsh Sinha. “A UST breakdown is not our base case, but it is a building tail risk.”

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