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Belgium’s Society for Worldwide InterBank Financial Telecommunications
A TIMELY FINANCIAL TOPIC
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By Staff Reporters
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Belgium’s Society for Worldwide Interbank Financial Telecommunications (SWIFT) runs a messaging service that facilitates transactions across 11,000+ financial institutions globally. Think of it as the “Gmail of global banking.”
Entities in every country except North Korea use SWIFT to shuffle trillions of dollars’ worth of funds across borders. And Russia is a SWIFT power user—as a major supplier of energy and other goods, it ranks sixth globally for payment messages sent on SWIFT. So if Russia were cut off from SWIFT, “the nation would essentially be severed from much of the global financial system,” the NYT wrote.
Under a law passed by Congress last November, cryptocurrency firms are supposed to begin recording their clients’ detailed transaction data in 2023, with reports sent to the IRS and to investors the following year. From the beginning, industry executives have pushed back, complaining that the legislation was drafted too broadly. Now, the Treasury Department and the Internal Revenue Service are likely to push off a January date for the firms to begin tracking data such as customers’ capital gains and losses, according to anonymous insiders. The move would mean the tax agency waits longer to get the kind of data it gets for stocks or bonds.
Bitcoin: $20,289.61
Markets: After another boring trading session, stocks wait to complete the first half of 2022—which will come at 4pm ET today.And, the carnage from Bed Bath & Beyond is a result of the company reporting a big sales decline from the previous year and showing CEO Mark Tritton the door.
Economy: Fed Chair Jerome Powell and two other central bank chiefs spoke about their inflation-combating efforts at a conference in Portugal. All three acknowledged that recent economic shocks (COVID, the war in Ukraine) have upended how inflation was understood for decades. “I think we now understand better how little we understand on inflation,” Powell said.
An event like the Russia-Ukraine war creates ripple effects throughout the financial markets, in sometimes surprising ways. In this episode of Brew Breakdown, they explain how geopolitics affect the global market and point out what you can look out for when it comes to your stock portfolio during times of uncertainty.
US stocks plunged yesterday with the Dow Jones falling nearly 1,000 points as investors grappled with new comments from Fed Chair Jerome Powell that indicate bigger interest rate hikes ahead.
For the week, the Dow finished down 1.85%, the S&P 500 tumbled 2.7%, and the NASDAQ crashed 3.8%. The Dow Jones marked its fourth consecutive weekly decline, while the S&P 500 and NASDAQ 100 registered their third straight weekly drops.
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Despite the bearishness in the stock market, first-quarter corporate earnings continue to beat analyst estimates on both the top and bottom lines. According to data from Fundstrat, of the 95 companies that have reported so far, or 19% of the S&P 500, results are beating profit estimates by a median of 6%. Meanwhile, revenue estimates have been beating by a median of 3%.
Ukraine announced limits on bitcoin purchases Friday to protect against capital flight as Russia’s war on the country pushes into a third month. The National Bank of Ukraine is banning bitcoin purchases made with the hyrvnia and is capping purchases made with foreign currencies at $3,300 a month.
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China’s yuan was on track for its worst weekly drop since 2015 on Friday, as investors rushed back to the US. The offshore yuan, or renminbi, had fallen 2.4% over the week to 6.53 per dollar, according to Bloomberg data.
Investors are about to embark on a three-day (or three-and-a-half-day) holiday weekend.
The stock market is closed on Friday, April 15, 2022 – Good Friday, as well as the start of Passover this year – ahead of the Easter Sunday holiday, which falls on April 17th. As a result, no major earnings are scheduled for Good Friday.
However, bond traders will enjoy not just a full Friday off, but also had a partial trading day Thursday. The bond markets shut down early, at 2 p.m., for Maundy Thursday. Stock and bond trading resume at their normal hours on Monday, the day after Easter Sunday.
Markets: But, all three major indexes posted a losing week as investors weighed solid Q1 earnings against threats like inflation and the war in Ukraine … with the threats getting more attention. But there’s nothing like a three-day weekend for a reset.
Markets: US stocks rose for two straight weeks. Investors appear to be putting more emphasis on strong corporate earnings than all the uncertainty around the war in Ukraine and inflation.
Treasury: Yields climbed (in anticipation of higher interest rates), giving a lift to financial stocks.
Ukraine: Top Russian military officials signaled a change in approach to the war. They spoke about the “complete liberation” of the Donbas region in eastern Ukraine, which means Russia could potentially be pivoting from its initial goal of taking Ukraine’s biggest cities and toppling its government.
EARNING REPORTS THIS WEEK:
Monday: Earnings from Dave & Buster’s.
Tuesday: US consumer confidence; US Job Openings and Labor Turnover (JOLTS); earnings from Micron, Chewy, Lululemon and RH.
Wednesday: US ADP jobs report; US GDP for Q4 (third estimate); weekly crude oil inventories; earnings from BioNTech and Paychex.
Thursday: End of first quarter; US personal income and spending; US weekly jobless claims: earnings from Walgreens and Blackberry.
Markets: Another losing week for Wall Street’s three main indexes, and the fifth down week in a row for the Dow. Despite ticking up yesterday, oil prices have actually fallen over the last five days thanks to assurances that producers could plug the supply gap left by Russia.
Ukraine: As Russian forces expanded their assault on new cities in Ukraine, President Biden once again ruled out deploying US troops to the country. “A direct confrontation between NATO and Russia is World War III,” he said.
Stress: More than 80% of Americans said that the invasion of Ukraine and inflation are significant sources of stress, according to a new survey from the American Psychological Association. That share is higher than for any other issue asked about since the survey began in 2007. Meanwhile, US consumer confidence fell to its lowest level in almost 11 years in early March.
MARKETS: Stocks finished lower losing steam late in the session, as investors remained focused on the surge in global crude prices and the broader commodity complex, as global markets continue to count the costs from Russia’ invasion of Ukraine.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average finished down 184.7 points, or 0.56%, to 32,632 while the S&P 500, which is down 11.75% for the year and fresh off its worst single-day decline in 17 months, lost 0.72%.
The NASDAQ Composite slipped 0.28% as 10-year Treasury note yields rose to 1.852%.
OIL: Futures ended higher Tuesday, with West Texas Intermediate crude for April delivery rising 3.6% to settle at $123.70 a barrel. That’s the highest front-month contract finish since August 1st, 2008, according to Dow Jones Market Data.
EUROPE: Rallied at the start of trade on Wednesday, buoyed by an interview from Ukraine’s president in which he appeared to make major concessions. The Stoxx Europe 600 rose 2.2% to 424.28, helped by a rally in the beleaguered banking sector. Gainers included BNP Paribas Adidas and Deutsche Post.
ASIA: At the close in Tokyo, the Nikkei 225 declined 0.30% to hit a new 52-week low. The best performers of the session on the Nikkei 225 were Isuzu Motors, Ltd. (T:7202), which rose 7.91% or 102.00 points to trade at 1,391.00 at the close. Meanwhile, Fujitsu Ltd. (T:6702) added 5.54% or 840.00 points to end at 16,000.00 and Hitachi Ltd (T:6501) was up 4.78% or 228.00 points to 4,998.00 in late trade. The worst performers of the session were Tokyo Electric Power Co., Inc. (T:9501), which fell 7.00% or 25.00 points to trade at 332.00 at the close. Kikkoman Corp. (T:2801) declined 6.67% or 560.00 points to end at 7,840.00 and Ricoh Co., Ltd. (T:7752) was down 4.91% or 47.00 points to 910.00.
Falling stocks outnumbered advancing ones on the Tokyo Stock Exchange by 2034 to 1517 and 220 ended unchanged. Shares in Ricoh Co., Ltd. (T:7752) fell to 52-week lows; losing 4.91% or 47.00 to 910.00.
The Nikkei Volatility, which measures the implied volatility of Nikkei 225 options, was up 6.54% to 29.82 a new 1-month high.
Stocks: Fell sharply as the economic fallout of Russia’s war in Ukraine rattled investors. The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell almost 800 points Monday to close with a loss of 2.4 percent. The NASDAQ plunged 3.6 percent lower and the S&P 500 index closed with a loss of 3 percent. Companies in the finance, travel, entertainment, retail and construction industries fell sharply as skyrocketing oil prices raised fears of an economic slowdown, while energy companies rallied on the prospect of higher prices. Stocks have fallen for weeks amid rising concern about inflation and the economic blow-back of the invasion of Ukraine. The Dow is down 10.3 percent, the S&P is down 12.4 percent, and the NASDAQ is down 19 percent since the start of 2022.
Oil & Wheat: Prices for oil, natural gas and wheat have also risen dramatically after the U.S. and allies imposed unprecedented sanctions on the Russian economy, which could limit their access to key Russian exports. Oil hit $120 barrel. But, some investors are betting on oil to surge even more dramatically, as bullish bets on crude futures increase. Since Friday, $150-a-barrel call options for Brent contracts in June have doubled. Amid new potential sanctions on Russia’s energy sector, oil briefly surpassed $130 a barrel overnight.
Economy: Economists warned that higher energy and food prices will likely slow growth in the U.S. through the first half of the year and fuel higher inflation. Prices rose 7.5 percent over the 12 months ending in January, according to US Labor Department data, the highest rate in more than 40 years.
Markets: The war in Ukraine and upcoming Federal Reserve [FOMC] rate hikes took their toll on stocks—the DJIA took another licking for its fourth straight losing week and travel stocks were especially bludgeoned.
Energy: Due to the rapid run-up in oil prices, average US gas prices surged to $3.84 a gallon on Friday. At 11 cents higher than Thursday’s levels, it’s the fastest price increase since Hurricane Katrina in 2005.
MARKETS
NASDAQ:13,313.44-1.66%
S&P: 4,328.87-0.79%
DJIA: 33,614.80-0.53%
10-Year 1.732%-11.2 bps
Bitcoin: $38,879.81-8.69%
Delta: $34.52-5.58%
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FUTURES: Dow futures lost 400 points, or 1.19%, while S&P 500 futures and NASDAQ 100 futures slid 1.5% and 1.91%, respectively.
OIL: West Texas Intermediate crude futures, the U.S. oil benchmark, traded as much as 10%, hitting $130 per barrel at one point before pulling back slightly. The international benchmark, Brent crude, traded 9% higher to $128.60, also the highest prices seen since 2008.
OIL: Brent crude, the world benchmark, briefly climbed above $100 a barrel for the first time since 2014. US crude jumped 3.3% to $95.15 a barrel.
U.S. stock indexes: All closed sharply lower with the DJIA narrowly avoiding a slip into correction, as U.S. officials warned that Russian troops were poised to attack, and are attacking, the Ukraine raising anxieties among investors who are also wrangling with changing monetary policy and surging inflation.
How did stock indexes trade? The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 464.85 points, or 1.4%, to end at 33,131.76. A finish below 33,119.69 would mark a 10% decline from the Dow’s Jan. 4 record close, meeting the commonly used definition of a correction. The S&P 500 index fell 79.26 points, or 1.8%, to around 4,225.50, deepening its stumble into correction territory. The NASDAQ Composite Index declined 344.03 points, or 2.6%, at 13,037.49, with 12,845.95 representing the level that would represent a bear market for the technology-laden index.
Asia: Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index declined 3.2%. Korea’s Kospi dropped 2.7%. Japan’s Nikkei 225 lost 2.4% after coming back from a holiday. China’s Shanghai Composite moved 0.9% lower.
Markets: The domestic markets were closed yesterday as stocks around the world tumbled.
Crypto: Bitcoin was trading at $36,649 at 2:30 a.m. ET, falling nearly 6.5% in the last 24 hours, according to data from CoinDesk. The world’s most valuable cryptocurrency fell below $40,000 over the weekend, and has continued to slide as the Ukraine crisis intensifies. The currency has lost almost half its value since its November high of $68,990 due to geopolitical tensions, the prospect of interest rate hikes by the US Federal Reserve and curbs by some major economies on digital assets. Bitcoin’s peers have also been faring poorly. Ethereum, the world’s second most valuable cryptocurrency, fell over 8% in the last 24 hours and was trading at $2,520.
Putin: Russian President Vladimir Putin dramatically escalated the Ukrainian conflict. He recognized two separatist regions in eastern Ukraine as independent and ordered Russian troops to enter those areas, which may provide the pretext for an invasion of other parts of the country. Western leaders condemned the move as a violation of international law and the US said it will impose sanctions on those regions.
Wall Street trading is closed for Presidents Day holiday. But stock futures were ceding earlier stronger ground, while havens such gold pared losses, after a Kremlin spokesman said no concrete plans for a summit between President Joe Biden and Russian President Vladimir Putin had been made.
MARKETS: IHS Markit’s flash euro area composite PMI (purchasing managers’ index) reading, seen as a reliable gauge of overall economic health, came in at a five-month high of 55.8 in February. The U.K.’s composite PMI came in at an eight-month high of 60.2 in February, up from 54.2 in January and well above forecasts.
European markets were choppy today today as investors monitored the Russia-Ukraine situation and unexpectedly strong economic data from the euro zone and U.K. The pan-European Stoxx 600 index was down 1% during afternoon trade, having gained as much as 0.6% at the start of the session. And, tech stocks dropped 2.4% as most sectors and major bourses slid into the red.
OIL: According to Sonali Paul of Reuters – Oil prices gained more than $1 in early trade on Monday from rising jitters over potential conflict between Russia and Ukraine, with the United States and European Union making clear Russia would face sanctions if it invaded its neighbor. European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen said Russia would be cut off from international financial markets and denied access to major exports needed to modernize its economy if it invaded Ukraine.
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Brent crude futures were up $1.34, or 1.4%, at $94.88 a barrel at 2312 GMT after hitting a high of $95.00 in early trade.
NIKKEI: Shares in Asia-Pacific fell in Monday morning trade, as investors continue to watch the situation surrounding Ukraine.The Nikkei 225 in Japan slipped 2% in early trade while the TOPIX index shed 1.8%. South Korea’s KOSPI shed 1.64%. Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 slipped 0.82% in morning trade. And, MSCI’s broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan traded 0.36% lower.
MARKETS: Stocks closed down for a second straight week in the US— and sunk deeper into the red for 2022 so far — as investors assess the risks from escalating tensions in Ukraine and a shift in monetary policy by the Federal Reserve.
And, after another day of turbulence, the Dow and the S&P 500 both fell 0.7% (with the Dow ending Friday at 34,079) and the tech-heavy NASDAQ composite declined 1.2%. The NASDAQ has fallen farthest of the three major U.S. stock indexes to date, down 13.4% for the year, while the S&P 500 is off 8.8% and the Dow is down 6.2%.
Specifically, Intel’s shares declined $2.47, or 5.2%, while those of Boeing were off $4.38 (2.1%), combining for a roughly 45-point drag on the Dow. Salesforce.com Inc. Caterpillar and Honeywell International Inc. also contributed significantly to the decline.
STOCKS:
Shopify, which represented the Covid e-commerce boom, is down 62% from its peak.
Roblox, which represented the Covid gaming boom, is down 63%.
Netflix, which represented the Covid streaming boom, is down 43%.
Noteworthy: A $1 move in any of the Dow’s 30 components equates to a 6.59-point swing.
UKRAINE: Investors watched the latest developments in Ukraine, where Russia has been amassing troops on the border. The tensions are yet another concern for investors as they also try to determine how the economy will react to rising inflation and looming interest rate hikes.