On Bull -OR- Bear Markets?

YOU DECIDE AND OPINE

By Dr. David E. Marcinko MBA

The Plot Thickens

Autumn is here, and leaves aren’t the only thing falling.

Bull market breaks a new record on Wall Street. So what's a bull market? -  ABC News

After seven months of higher monthly closes, plus one record-setting high early in the month, the benchmark S&P 500® Index wobbled its way to a 5% pullback in September. The causes were many—uncertainty emanating from Washington, inflation, supply chain problems, and softer earnings growth forecasts—and now the horizon is looking foggy as we gaze ahead toward the final months of 2021.

Shipping bottlenecks and a near-record number of job openings are raising costs and putting upward pressure on wages, which may start to hurt profit margins, and the twin specters of inflation and higher interest rates are making investors wonder when the Federal Reserve might step in to raise interest rates.

Related: https://medicalexecutivepost.com/2016/03/18/doctors-and-bull-and-bear-markets/

But, if there’s a potential bright spot, we have to look across the sea to the Eurozone, where the signs point toward an era of increased government spending that could be positive for global economic growth.

CITE: https://www.r2library.com/Resource/Title/0826102549

And then came October, 2021; thus far!

Bull -OR- Bear?

YOUR COMMENTS ARE APPRECIATED.

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Thank You

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STOCKS: A Very Skewed Market “Boom”

PRICES CHANGES FOR THE LAST SEVEN YEARS

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Your thoughts are appreciated.

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The BUSINESS [Economic] CYCLE: What is it Really?

Of BUll and Bear Markets, too!

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By Dr. David Edward Marcinko MBA CMP®

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SPONSOR: http://www.CertifiedMedicalPlanner.org

The business cycle is also known as the economic cycle and reflects the expansion or contraction in economic activity. Understanding the business cycle and the indicators used to determine its phases may influence investment or economic business decisions and financial or medical planning expectations. Although often depicted as the regular rising and falling of an episodic curve, the business cycle is very irregular in terms of amplitude and duration.

Moreover, many elements move together during the cycle and individual elements seldom carry enough momentum to cause the cycle to move. However, elements may have a domino effect on one another, and this is ultimately drives the cycle.  We can also have a large positive cycle, coincident with a smaller but still negative cycle, as seen in the current healthcare climate of today.

  1. First Phase: Trough to Recovery (production driven)

Scenario: A depressed GNP leads to declining industrial production and capacity utilization. Decreased workloads result in improved labor productivity and reduced labor (unit) costs until actual producer (wholesale) prices decline.

  1. Second Phase: Recovery to Expansion (consumer driven)

Scenario: CPI declines (due to reduced wholesale prices) and consumer real income rises, improving consumer sentiment and actual demand for consumer goods.

  1. Third Phase: Expansion to Peak (production driven)

Scenario: GNP rises leading to increased industrial production and capacity utilization. But, labor productivity declines and unit labor costs and producer (wholesale) prices rise.

  1. Fourth Phase: Peak to Contraction (consumer driven)

Scenario: CPI rises making consumer real income and sentiment erode until consumer demand, and ultimately purchases, shrink dramatically.  Recessions may occur and economists have an alphabet used to describe them.

For example, with a V, the drop and recovery is quick. For U, the economy moves up more sluggishly from the bottom. A W is what you would expect: repeated recoveries and declines. An L shaper recession describes a prolonged dry economic spell or even depression.


NOTE: Historically, contractions have had a shorter duration than expansions.

Bull and Bear Markets for Medical Professionals

A bull market is generally one of rising stock prices, while a bear market is the opposite. There are usually two bulls for every one bear market over the long term.

More specifically, a bear market is defined as a drop of twenty percent or more in a market index from its high, and can vary in duration and severity.  While a bull market has no such threshold requirement to exist, other than they exist between these two periods of sharp decline.

Whither the Bear?

As a doctor, your action plan in a bear market depends on many variables, with perhaps your age being the most important:

In your 30s:

  • Pay off debts, school or practice loans.
  • Invest in safe money market mutual funds, cash or CDs.
  • Start retirement plan or 401-K account.

In your 40s:

  • Increase your pension plan or 401-K contributions.
  • Stay weighted more toward equity investments.
  • Review your goals, risk tolerance and portfolio.

In your 50s:

  • Position assets for ready cash instruments.
  • Diversify into stock, bonds and cash.

Retirement:

  • Maintain 3 years of ready cash living expenses.
  • Reduce, but still maintain your exposure to equities.

ASSESSMENT: So, where are we right now in the economic business cycle? Your thoughts are appreciated.

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Selecting Financial Advisors the Risky Way

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Physician Due Diligence is Important

[By Daniel B. Moisand; CFP®, and the ME-P Staff]Tall Shadows

While the merits of hiring the right financial advisor [FA] may be clear, hiring the wrong one can be devastating. Medical professionals still tend to have higher incomes and are an attractive target for most financial institutions and scam artists. This fear is a poor excuse for not getting the assistance necessary. Advice about who to engage for financial assistance comes from a hodge-podge of disjointed sources. This leads to good intentions and bad results. Take caution when using the following as sources of advice.

Relying on Family and Friends

By far more people seek financial advice from trusted family members and friends than any other source.  This is only natural. It is essential to trust that you are getting advice from a source that means well. It is also important that you get along well with your advisors. Hesitating to communicate with your advisor, even a great advisor, can cause problems even more problematic that getting bad advice from someone you like. While these sources have a good handle on the essential elements of trust and rapport, it is the competence of the advice that is most often the issue. The life and money experiences of those who are close to you certainly have value, but they are not necessarily relevant to your unique goals and circumstances. THINK: Bernie Madoff.

Media

A few years ago, the dominant media force in consumer oriented financial matters was the print media.  Magazines and newsletters proliferated with the bull market. More recently however, television has supplanted print even in the bear market. For example, a study now estimates that 80 percent of what the average American knows about current events comes from TV. Why wait three weeks for the next issue when you can get a commentary instantly on the television? There is nothing wrong with watching shows that cover the markets or subscribing to a consumer finance magazine. It is certainly a good idea to be informed. However, be wary of the quality and applicability of information put out by the media.

The Internet

It is easy to run across an ad for prescriptions drugs on television. Images prance across the screen followed by a litany of potential side effects and the obligatory, “Ask your doctor about”. With the expansion of the information superhighway, more and more companies are going direct to the consumer in some manner or another.

Financially speaking this information can be of great benefit but should also generate more concern. It is very easy to project a particular image via the web. The webmaster controls the interaction from what you see to what you hear. One of the results of this is that the Internet has already garnered a reputation as a breeding ground for new scams. More prevalent, however, is the presentation of information meant to be useful that is simply wrong, misinterpreted, or misapplied. The most terrifying source of misinformation on the net is the chat rooms. Here the entire interaction is clouded by anonymity. Some people enter chat rooms because there is a comfort in anonymity when asking a question. There is also a danger in an anonymous answer. When it comes to something as important as your finances or your health, the prudent course should be to take all the advice with a grain of salt. A great deal of consideration to the quality of the source is in order. It is also essential that one understand the level of accountability a source may possess.   fp-book2

Assessment

Much has been written on financial advisor selection, here on the ME-P and elsewhere; but little on how not to select an advisor. We trust this information will be of assistance to the medical professional in some small increment. Send in your FA stories; both good and bad.

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Conclusion

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Speaker: If you need a moderator or speaker for an upcoming event, Dr. David E. Marcinko; MBA – Publisher-in-Chief of the Medical Executive-Post – is available for seminar or speaking engagements. Contact: MarcinkoAdvisors@msn.com

OUR OTHER PRINT BOOKS AND RELATED INFORMATION SOURCES:

Dictionary of Health Insurance and Managed Care

Product Details  Product Details

Comprehensive Financial Planning Strategies for Doctors and Advisors: Best Practices from Leading Consultants and Certified Medical Planners™

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