Lessons from History’s Technology Booms

Posted on May 6, 2025 by Dr. David Edward Marcinko MBA MEd CMP™

By Vitaliy Katsenelson CFA

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The technology at the core of the mania is different every time. What doesn’t change over time is human emotion – the fear of missing out and then the fear of loss.

AI has a feel of “this time is different.” Optimism rarely erupts about the same technology twice; this is why history doesn’t repeat but rhymes. The technology at the core of the mania is different every time. What doesn’t change over time is human emotion – the fear of missing out and then the fear of loss, in that order. 

Humans are an optimistic bunch. We need it; it’s essential to our survival and progress; but eventually, we take our optimism too far. The graveyard of financial ruins is full of these stories.

I have beat the dotcoms and Nifty Fifties to death, so let’s go to back another century. My friend the brilliant Edward Chancellor wrote about the railroad boom and bust in England in the 1800s. Here he is, edited for brevity:

The first railway to use steam locomotives opened in 1825 and was designed to carry coal, not passengers. Railway promoters simply did not appreciate the potential demand for high-speed travel. The successful launch of the Liverpool and Manchester Railway in 1830, however, demonstrated the commercial viability of passenger travel. By the early 1840s, Britain’s railway network stretched to more than 2,000 miles. Railway companies were delivering acceptable, if not spectacular, returns for investors.

Then railway fever suddenly gripped the nation. Enthusiasts touted rail transport not just for its economic benefits, but for its benign effects on human civilization. One journal envisaged a day when the “whole world will have become one great family speaking one language, governed in unity by like laws, and adoring one God.” In the two years after 1843, the index of rail stocks doubled.

Investment peaked at around 7% of Britain’s national income. Railway enthusiasts predicted that rail would soon replace all the country’s roads and that “horse and foot transit shall be nearly extinct.”

In 1845, Britain’s railways carried nearly 34 million passengers. If the 8,000 miles of newly authorized railways were to deliver their expected 10% return, then the industry’s total revenue and passenger traffic would have to climb five fold or more – all within the space of just five years. “This should have alarmed observers by itself … But they were deluded by the collective psychology of the Mania”, writes Odlyzko. 

In 1847 a severe financial crisis broke out, induced in part by the diversion of large amounts of capital into unprofitable railway schemes. It turned out that the revenue projections provided by so-called “traffic takers” were wildly overoptimistic. Railway engineers underestimated costs. The vogue for constructing direct lines between large urban centers proved mistaken, as most traffic turned out to be local. As a result, Britain’s rail network was plagued with overcapacity. By the end of the decade, the index of railway stocks was down 65% from its 1845 peak. 

The railroad bubble in England is just one example; there are hundreds of similar stories across market history. They all share this theme:

A new technology appears on the horizon. In the early stages, investment is rational, but then at some point excitement, imagination, and optimism take over, leading to overinvestment (usually creating a financial bubble). Investors make a lot of money until most lose it all. When the dust settles, only a few companies survive.

This AI boom reminds me of the telecom sector in the 1990s. The internet was going to change the world, and it did, but first we had tremendous overcapacity in global fiber and telecom equipment.

One could say that telecommunications companies overestimated demand for broadband and underestimated changes in technology, and that would be true. But there was a more nuanced dynamic at play, what economists call the fallacy of composition.

What’s true for one participant isn’t necessarily true for the group.

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VALUE INVESTING: Lesson from the Blackjack Table

Posted on May 5, 2025 by Dr. David Edward Marcinko MBA MEd CMP™

By Vitaliy Katsenelson CFA

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“Any time you make a bet with the best of it, where the odds are in your favor, you have earned something on that bet, whether you actually win or lose the bet. By the same token, when you make a bet with the worst of it, where the odds are not in your favor, you have lost something, whether you actually win or lose the bet.”

– David Sklansky, The Theory of Poker

Over a lifetime, active investors will make hundreds, often thousands of investment decisions. Not all of those decisions will work out for the better. Some will lose and some will make us money. As humans we tend to focus on the outcome of the decision rather than on the process.

On a behavioral level, this makes sense. The outcome is binary to us – good or bad, we can observe with ease. But the process is more complex and is often hidden from us.

One of two things (sometimes a bit of both) can unite great investors: process and randomness (luck). Unfortunately, there is not much we can learn from randomness, as it has no predictive power. But the process we should study and learn from. To be a successful investor, all you need is a successful process and the ability (or mental strength) to stick to it.

Several years ago, I was on a business trip. I had some time to kill so I went to a casino to play blackjack. Aware that the odds were stacked against me, I set a $40 limit on how much I was willing to lose in the game.

I figured a couple hours of entertainment, plus the free drinks provided by the casino, were worth it. I was never a big gambler (as I never won much). However, several days before the trip I had picked up a book on blackjack on the deep discount rack in a local bookstore. All the dos and don’ts from the book were still fresh in my head. I figured if I played my cards right I would minimize the house advantage from 2-3 per cent to 0.5 per cent.

Wanting to get as much mileage out of my $40 as possible, I found a table with the smallest minimum bet requirement. My thinking was that the smaller the hands I played, the more time it would take for the casino’s advantage to catch up with me and take my money.

I joined a table that was dominated by a rowdy, half-drunken blue-collar worker who told me several times that it was his payday (literally: he was holding a stack of $100 bills in his hand) and that he was winning. I played by the book. But it did not matter. Luck was not on my side and my $40 was thinning with every hand.

Meanwhile, the rowdy guy was making every wrong move. He would ask for an extra card when he had a hard 18 while the dealer showed 6. The next card he drew would be a 3, giving him 21. Then the dealer would get a 10 and then a 2 (on top of the 6 that already showed), leaving him with 18. The rowdy guy barely paid attention to the cards.

He was more interested in saying “hit me”.

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ZWEIG BREADTH THRUST: A Stock Indicator

Posted on April 29, 2025 by Dr. David Edward Marcinko MBA MEd CMP™

By Staff Reporters

SPONSOR: http://www.MarcinkoAssociates.com

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The Zweig Breadth Thrust may sound like an extremely difficult yoga position, but it’s actually a bullish technical indicator with an extraordinary record of 100% accuracy that was just triggered.

Created by investment advisor and author Martin Zweig, the indicator takes the 10-day moving average of the number of advancing stocks across the market and divides it by the number of advancing stocks plus the number of declining stocks. When the resulting percentage rises from below 40% to above 61.5% in 10 trading days, it’s a sign that stocks are rapidly going from oversold to overbought.

The math is a bit complicated, but Carson Research’s Chief Market Strategist Ryan Detrick certainly thinks highly of it.

According to the chart that he just posted on X, the Zweig Breadth Thrust has a perfect record of predicting market gains 6 and 12 months after it appears.

With the indicator triggering on Friday, here’s hoping that we can continue to trust the Zweig Thrust.

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FOURTH MARKET: Private Security Transactions

Posted on April 27, 2025 by Dr. David Edward Marcinko MBA MEd CMP™

DEFINITIONS

By Staff Reporters

SPONSOR: http://www.CertifiedMedicalPlanner.org

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The Fourth Market?

The fourth market is defined as private transactions made directly between large medical investors, institutions such as banks, mutual funds, and insurance companies, without the use of a securities firm. In other words, fourth market trading is usually one institution swapping securities in its portfolio with another large institution.

From the stock broker’s viewpoint, there is one problem with the fourth market. Since no broker/dealer is involved, no registered representative is involved and there is no commission to be earned. These trades are reported on a system called Instinet.

This is advantageous to larger medical foundations or institutional investors.

What Is Instinet?

Instinet is a global financial securities service that operates an electronic securities order matching, trading, and information system which allows members, primarily institutional traders, and investors, to display bids and offer quotes for stocks, and conduct transactions with each other.

Instinet is an example of a dark pool of liquidity, a private exchange for trading securities that is not accessible by the investing public. The name implies a lack of transparency. and it facilitates block trading by institutional investors who do not wish to impact the markets with their large orders.

According to the SEC, there were 74 registered Alternative Trading Systems, or dark pools, as of February 2024.

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FEAR BASED GOLD FEVER: Protect Yourself

Posted on April 27, 2025 by Dr. David Edward Marcinko MBA MEd CMP™

By Rick Kahler CFP™

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On January 21, 1980, in what I thought was a brilliant financial move, I bought gold. At what was then an all-time high of $873 an ounce.

Fast forward 45 years, and here we are again. Gold is on a tear, priced just over $3,000 an ounce at the time of this writing. It needs to rise another 16% to reach its inflation-adjusted record and many analysts think it might just get there.

What’s driving this gold rally? The same thing that drove it in 1980—fear.

Back then, the U.S. was grappling with rising inflation, double-digit price increases, and interest rates in the high teens. Investors feared that the dollar and stock market would collapse, that their hard-earned savings would erode into oblivion, and that gold was a safe haven. Sound familiar?

Today, inflation is less dramatic and the stock market would have to go a long way down to even register as a bear market, but it’s still a major concern. Central banks are buying gold at record levels. Gold-backed ETFs, which had been seeing years of outflows, are finally pulling investors back in.

For most, gold isn’t just an investment, it’s an emotional hedge against uncertainty. Back in 1980, I wasn’t thinking about long-term strategy. I was reacting to fear. Inflation had hit 14%, and like many others, I was convinced the dollar would soon be worthless. Gold, I thought, was my best shot at preserving wealth.

The problem? Inflation eventually cooled; it had dropped to an average of 3.5% by the mid-1980s. Gold prices tumbled along with it. Investors who, like me, bought at the peak, 45 years later still haven’t broken even on an inflation-adjusted basis. (My $873 purchase price, adjusted for inflation, equates to $3,580 today.) If I had stuck with a well-diversified portfolio, I likely would have fared much better over time.

Over the years, I’ve come to realize that our financial decisions aren’t just about numbers. They’re deeply influenced by our Internal Financial System™, a framework that helps explain why we handle money the way we do. I now see that my decision to buy gold was a battle between different financial “parts” of myself.

One part panicked, convinced that money was about to become worthless. Another saw gold prices soaring and didn’t want to miss out. Yet another part convinced me that buying at the peak was still a smart move. Had I paused and examined these internal voices, I might have made a different decision.

My gold purchase shows why emotionally driven investment decisions rarely lead to great financial outcomes. Instead of asking, “Is gold a smart long-term investment?” I was asking, “How do I make sure I don’t lose everything?” Those are two very different questions.

If you’re thinking about buying gold, I urge you to consider these questions:

“Am I investing from a place of fear or strategy?” If you’re rushing in because you’re scared of inflation, pause and reassess.

“How does gold fit into my broader financial plan?” Gold can be a great hedge—if held in appropriate amounts in a diversified portfolio. It is best viewed as catastrophic financial insurance, rather than an investment.

“Am I reacting to headlines or making a well-thought-out decision?” The financial media loves a good gold rally. But remember, markets move in cycles. Today’s rally may be history repeating itself.

Back in 1980, fear persuaded me that gold was a sure thing. I forgot an essential caveat—there are no sure things in investing. If bad market timing were an Olympic sport, I’d have taken home the gold (pun intended) for least profitable performance.

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CPA, CMA, CFA and Enrolled Agents

Posted on April 22, 2025 by Dr. David Edward Marcinko MBA MEd CMP™

DEFINITIONS

By Staff Reporters

SPONSOR: http://www.MarcinkoAssociates.com

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Certified Public Accountant

A Certified Public Accountant (CPA) is a licensed professional who has passed an examination administered by a state’s Board of Accountancy. State CPA exams are created under guidelines issued by The American Institute of Certified Public Accountants (AICPA). The Uniform CPA Exam can only be taken by accountants who already have professional experience in the field and a bachelor’s degree.CPAs are not fiduciaries.

Not all accountants are CPAs. Accountants who are CPAs are licensed by their state’s Board of Accountancy after passing the Uniform CPA Exam. CPAs prepare reports that accurately reflect the business dealings of the companies and individuals that hire them. Many prepare tax returns for individuals or businesses and advise them on ways to minimize taxes. Obtaining the CPA designation requires a bachelor’s degree, typically with a major in business administration, finance, or accounting. Other majors are acceptable if the applicant meets the minimum requirements for accounting courses.  

Enrolled Agent

Although not a CPA, an Enrolled Agent [EA] is a person who has earned the privilege of representing taxpayers before the Internal Revenue Service [IRS]. This is done by either passing a three-part comprehensive IRS test covering individual and business tax returns, or through experience as a former IRS employee. Enrolled agent status is the highest credential the IRS awards. Individuals who obtain this elite status must adhere to ethical standards and complete 72 hours of continuing education courses every three years.

Certified Managerial Accountant

A Certified Management Accountant (CMA), which is issued by the Institute of Management Accountants (IMA), builds on financial accounting proficiency by adding management skills that aid in making strategic business decisions based on financial data.

Oftentimes, the reports and analyses prepared by certified management accountants (CMAs) will go above and beyond those required by generally accepted accounting principles (GAAP). 

For example, in addition to a company’s required GAAP financial statements, CMAs may prepare additional management reports that provide specific insights useful to corporate decision-makers, such as performance metrics on specific company departments, products, or even employees.

Certified Financial Analyst

A Certified Financial Analyst [CFA] is a globally-recognized professional designation offered by the CFA Institute, an organization that measures and certifies the competence and integrity of financial analysts. Candidates are required to pass three levels of exams covering areas such as accounting, economics, ethics, money management, and security analysis. From 1963 through November 2023, more than 3.7 million candidates had taken the CFA exam. The overall pass rate was 45%. From 2014 through 2023, the 10-year average pass rate was 43%.1

CFA Institute. The CFA Institute was formerly the Association for Investment Management and Research (AIMR).

The CFA charter is one of the most respected designations in finance and is widely considered to be the gold standard in the field of investment analysis. To become a charter holder, candidates must pass three difficult exams, have a bachelors degree, and have at least 4,000 hours of relevant professional experience over a minimum of three years. Passing the CFA Program exams requires strong discipline and an extensive amount of studying. 

There are more than 200,000 CFA charter holders worldwide in 164 countries.The designation is handed out by the CFA Institute, which has 11 offices worldwide and 160 local member societies.

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The DOCTOR EFFECT

Posted on April 21, 2025 by Dr. David Edward Marcinko MBA MEd CMP™

Dr. David Edward Marcinko; MBA MEd CMP™

Medical Colleagues Beware the Advisors

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SPONSOR: http://www.MarcinkoAssociates.com

Several years ago a group of highly trusted and deeply  experienced financial advisors, insurance service professionals and estate planners noted that far too many of their mature retiring physician clients, using traditional stock brokers, management consultants and financial advisors, seemed to be less successful than those who went it alone. These Do-it-Yourselfers [DIYs] had setbacks and made mistakes, for sure. But, the ME Inc doctors seemed to learn from their mistakes and did not incur the high management and service fees demanded from general or retail one-size-fits-all “advisors.”

In fact, an informal inverse related relationship was noted, and dubbed the “Doctor Effect.” In others words, the more consultants an individual doctor retained; the less well they did in all disciplines of the financial planning and medical practice management, continuum.

Of course, the reason for this discrepancy eluded many of them as Wall Street brokerages and wire-houses flooded the media with messages, infomercials, print, radio, TV, texts, tweets, dinners and internet ads to the contrary. Rather than self-learn the basics, the prevailing sentiment seemed to purse the holy grail of finding the “perfect financial advisor.”  This realization confirmed the industry culture which seemed to be:

Bread for the advisor – Crumbs for the client!

And so, Marcinko Associates formed a cadre’ of technology focused and highly educated multi-degreed doctors, nurses, financial advisors, attorneys, accountants, psychologists and educational visionaries who decided there must be a better way for their healthcare colleagues to receive financial planning advice, products and related advisory services within a culture of fiduciary responsibility.

We trust you agree with this specific niche knowledge, and collegial consulting philosophy, as illustrated thru our firm and these two books.

EDUCATION: Books

SPEAKING: Dr. Marcinko will be speaking and lecturing, signing and opining, teaching and preaching, storming and performing at many locations throughout the USA this year! His tour of witty and serious pontifications may be scheduled on a planned or ad-hoc basis; for public or private meetings and gatherings; formally, informally, or over lunch or dinner. All medical societies, financial advisory firms or Broker-Dealers are encouraged to submit a RFP for speaking engagements: MarcinkoAdvisors@outlook.com 

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VIX: Stock Market Fear Gauge Update

Posted on April 20, 2025 by Dr. David Edward Marcinko MBA MEd CMP™

VOLATILITY INDEX

By Staff Reporters

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DEFINITION: https://medicalexecutivepost.com/2024/05/30/what-up-vix/

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UPDATE

The VIX soared to 60.13 last Monday before plummeting all the way to 33.76 on Wednesday, the day after the president paused tariffs. But while the VIX has since settled down a bit, investor fear is still high. The VIX closed above 30 for 10 straight trading sessions and the last time that happened was during the bear market back in October 2022, according to MarketWatch—not exactly a comforting comparison.

Then again, just because fear skyrocketed last week doesn’t mean the markets will tank in turn. “Since 1997, there have been 11 times the VIX spiked above 45—and 10 out of 11 times, the S&P 500 was higher four months later by an average of +6.4%,” noted Austin Hankowitz in the latest edition of the Rich Habits newsletter.

Finally, the VIX closed above 30 Thursady as tariff talk and monetary policy pivots keep investors on their toes. But while worries might keep investors on the sidelines, some on Wall Street are taking this opportunity to be greedy while others are fearful.

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STOCKS: Basic Definitions

Posted on April 18, 2025 by Dr. David Edward Marcinko MBA MEd CMP™

By Staff Reporters

SPONSOR: http://www.MarcinkoAssociates.com

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When you buy a share of stock, you are taking ownership in a company.  Collectively, the company is owned by all the shareholders, and each share represents a claim on assets and earnings.  If the company distributes profits to its shareholders, you should receive a proportionate share of the earnings.

Stocks are often categorized by the size of the company, or their market capitalization.  The market capitalization is determined by multiplying the number of outstanding shares by the current share price.  The most common market cap classes are small-cap (valued from $100 million to $1 billion), mid-cap ($1 billion to $10 billion), and large cap ($10 billion to $100 billion).

Stocks are also categorized by their sector, or the type of business the company conducts.  Common sectors include utilities, consumer staples, energy, communications, financial, health care, transportation, and technology.

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Stocks are often viewed as being in one of two categories — growth or value.

  • Growth stocks are ones that are associated with high quality, successful companies that are expected to continue growing at a better-than-average rate as compared to the rest of the market.
  • Value stocks are ones that have generally solid fundamentals, but are currently out of favor with the market.  This may be due to the company being relatively new and unproven in the market, or because the company has recently experienced a decline due to the company’s sector being affected negatively.  An example of this would be if the federal government was to levy a new tax on all cell phones, thus negatively affecting all cell phone company stocks.

History has shown that, over time, stocks have provided a better return than bonds, real estate, and other savings vehicles.  As a result, stocks may be the ideal investment for investors with long-term goals.

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Few Stocks UP with Many Stocks DOWN

Posted on April 18, 2025 by Dr. David Edward Marcinko MBA MEd CMP™

By Staff Reporters

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U.S. stock and bond markets will be closed on Good Friday. Many global markets will also be closed Friday. Exceptions include Japan and mainland China, which will be open as usual. U.S. markets will reopen Monday. Many international markets will remain shut to mark Easter Monday, including Australia, Hong Kong, and exchanges in France, Germany and the U.K.

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YESTERDAY 4/17/25

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🟢 What’s up

  • TSMC eked out a 0.10% gain after the semiconductor maker reported a 60% increase in profits last quarter and downplayed the effects of tariffs.
  • Charles Schwab isn’t just the guy who made $2 billion from market chaos last week. It’s also the brokerage that reported record quarterly revenue, but shares only rose 0.65%.
  • Hertz climbed another 43.87%, tacking on another day of big wins after Bill Ackman’s Pershing Square Capital took a stake in the rental car company.
  • Trump Media & Technology Group popped 11.65% after the company asked the SEC to investigate a hedge fund with a $105 million short bet against it.
  • Chinese tea chain Chagee soared 15.86% in its first day of trading on the Nasdaq.
  • DR Horton missed analyst expectations last quarter and lowered its fiscal year guidance, but investors quickly forgave the country’s largest homebuilder and pushed shares up 3.16%.

What’s down

  • Alphabet took a 1.38% hit after a federal judge ruled that Google is a monopoly. This marks Alphabet’s second antitrust loss since last August.
  • Alcoa fell 6.98% after the aluminum mining behemoth announced it ate about $20 million in tariff-related costs last quarter, noting that this figure could rise to $90 million in the current quarter.
  • American Express fell 0.64% even though the credit card company beat Wall Street’s expectations last quarter.
  • Global Payments tumbled 17.43% after the payment processor announced a $24 billion acquisition of competitor Worldpay.

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UNITEDHEALTH: Stock Dives

Posted on April 17, 2025 by Dr. David Edward Marcinko MBA MEd CMP™

By Staff Reporters

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UnitedHealth stock nosedived 20% in morning trading, falling by $116 per share from Wednesday’s $585 close to $469. The Minnesota-based firm is on track for its steepest daily loss since Aug. 6, 1998.

The losses came after UnitedHealth’s first-quarter financial report was worse than analysts expected across each of the three major quarterly yardsticks: revenue, earnings per share and future earnings outlook.

Furthermore, after the opening bell, the Dow Jones Industrial Average tumbled 1.3%, or around 500 points. The S&P 500 moved up 0.4%, while the tech-heavy NASDAQ composite gained 0.5%.

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Very Few Stocks UP but Many Stocks DOWN

Posted on April 17, 2025 by Dr. David Edward Marcinko MBA MEd CMP™

By Staff Reporters

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🟢 What’s up

  • Hertz Global soared 56.44% on the news that Bill Ackman’s Pershing Square Capital has taken a $46.5 million stake in the rental car company.
  • Travelers Cos. rose 1.13% in spite of massive losses from California wildfires, which didn’t hurt the insurer’s bottom line as badly as Wall Street feared.
  • Abbott Laboratories gained 2.77% after the pharma company missed sales estimates but still beat earnings forecasts.
  • Gold miners continue to climb as gold keeps hitting new highs. Newmont rose 2.51%, while Gold Fields gained 3.35%.

What’s down

  • Tesla sank 4.94% after the company’s share of EV sales in California fell below 50% in the first quarter, while export controls threaten plans to produce Cybercabs in the US.
  • United Airlines fell 0.01% despite reporting its “best first-quarter financial results in five years,” according to management. The airline took the unique measure of providing two different financial outlooks for the year ahead: one for a stable economy, and one for a recession.
  • Lyft shed just 0.46% on the news that the ride-hailing company is acquiring European taxi app Free Now for $199 million.
  • Interactive Brokers Group reported a 47% increase in trading volume last quarter that helped it beat revenue expectations, but the brokerage still tumbled 8.95% after missing profit forecasts.
  • Palantir gave up some of its recent gains following its big NATO announcement, sinking 5.78% today as investors collected profits.
  • JB Hunt Transport Services’ management team warned that the logistics company sits squarely in the crosshairs of the trade war, pushing shares down 7.68%.
  • Omnicom Group tumbled 7.28% after the advertising firm missed revenue estimates thanks to economic uncertainty.

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Stocks UP and Stocks DOWN

Posted on April 16, 2025 by Dr. David Edward Marcinko MBA MEd CMP™

By Staff Reporters

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Investors were apparently tired of all the volatility yesterday, leading to a relatively calm day where indexes ever-so-slightly slipped. But it was a big day for Netflix after the Wall Street Journal reported that the streaming giant has plans to double its revenue and reach a $1 trillion valuation by 2030.

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🟢 What’s up

  • Hewlett Packard Enterprise popped 5.11% after Elliott Investment Management took a $1.5 billion stake in the tech company.
  • Rocket Lab rocketed (sorry) 10.14% higher after the space stock inked deals with both the US Air Force and the UK Ministry of Defense.
  • Netflix rose 4.83% on a report from the Wall Street Journal that the streaming giant plans to hit a $1 trillion market capitalization and double its revenue by 2030. The company announces earnings on Thursday.
  • Bank of America and Citigroup both posted strong Q1 earnings that beat analyst forecasts (more on that below). BofA climbed 3.60%, while Citi rose 1.76%.
  • Palantir rose another 6.24% a day after NATO agreed to purchase its AI-powered warfighting system.

What’s down

  • Albertsons tumbled 7.49% after the grocer’s full-year guidance came in below expectations.
  • Allegro Microsystems sank 9.68% on the news that ON Semiconductor has withdrawn its offer to acquire the chipmaker.
  • Applied Digital plummeted 35.94% after the digital infrastructure company missed analyst revenue estimates, despite sales climbing 22% last quarter.
  • #recessionindicator: Coty sank 8.57% after the beauty retailer was double downgraded by Bank of America analysts, citing a slowdown in makeup spending.

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STOCK MARKET: Update

Posted on April 15, 2025 by Dr. David Edward Marcinko MBA MEd CMP™

By Staff Reporters

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Stocks kept the good vibes going for a second trading day yesterday with tech companies like Apple rising as investors reacted to the weekend’s news that smartphones and computers would be temporarily exempt from “reciprocal” tariffs—at least until new semiconductor tariffs are imposed.

Car companies also jumped after President Trump suggested he wanted to “help” as automakers try to transition their production to the US in the face of 25% auto tariffs.

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US STOCKS: Market Update

Posted on April 14, 2025 by Dr. David Edward Marcinko MBA MEd CMP™

By Staff Reporters

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US Markets

After one of the most volatile weeks in Wall Street history, the S&P 500 closed 5.7% higher for its best week since 2023. But investors are taking little comfort with the rebound in stocks.

A declining dollar fell to a three-year low against the euro on Friday and spiking bond yields have some observers warning of a monumental, structural shift away from the US as a safe haven due to the recent tariff turmoil.

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PHYSICIAN: Financial Education Lacking in Medical School

Posted on April 12, 2025 by Dr. David Edward Marcinko MBA MEd CMP™

FRANKLY SPEAKING MY MIND!

By Dr. David Edward Marcinko MBA MEd CMP™

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The vast majority of physicians and medical professionals major in one of the hard science while in college; biology, engineering, chemistry, mathematics, computer science or physics; etc. Few take undergraduate courses in finance, business management, securities analysis, accounting or economics; although this paradigm is changing with modernity. These course are not particularly difficult for the pre-medical baccalaureate major, they are just not on the radar screen for time compressed and highly competitive students; nor are they needed for medical or nursing school admission, or the many related allied health professional schools.

In fact, William C. Roberts MD, originally from Emory University in Atlanta, and former editor for the Baylor University Medical Center Proceedings and The American Journal of Cardiology, opined just a decade ago:

“Of the 125 medical schools in the USA, only one of them to my knowledge offers a class related to saving or investing money.”

And so, it is important to review some basic principles of economics, finance and accounting as they relate to financial planning in thees two textbooks; and this ME-P.

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DAILY UPDATE: Dow & S&P 500 Post Best Week Since 2023

Posted on April 12, 2025 by Dr. David Edward Marcinko MBA MEd CMP™

MEDICAL EXECUTIVE-POST – TODAY’S NEWSLETTER BRIEFING

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Essays, Opinions and Curated News in Health Economics, Investing, Business, Management and Financial Planning for Physician Entrepreneurs and their Savvy Advisors and Consultants

“Serving Almost One Million Doctors, Financial Advisors and Medical Management Consultants Daily“

A Partner of the Institute of Medical Business Advisors , Inc.

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Daily Update Provided By Staff Reporters Since 2007.
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US stocks turned higher on Friday to cap a chaotic week on Wall Street, as investors weighed the latest tariff-related developments in the trade war between the US and China.

The S&P 500 (^GSPC) rose 1.8% after seesawing earlier in the session. The tech-heavy NASDAQ Composite (^IXIC) climbed 2.1%. The Dow Jones Industrial Average (^DJI) advanced 1.5%, about 600 points.

Trump’s fast-moving tariff policy has whiplashed stocks this week with historic gains during Wednesday’s session but sharp losses on Thursday.

CITE: https://tinyurl.com/2h47urt5

In the end, the S&P 500 and Dow had their best weeks since 2023, while the NASDAQ’s 7% weekly gain was its best since 2022.

CITE: https://tinyurl.com/tj8smmes

Visualize: How private equity tangled banks in a web of debt, from the Financial Times.

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DAILY UPDATE: Stocks Crushed Again!

Posted on April 11, 2025 by Dr. David Edward Marcinko MBA MEd CMP™

MEDICAL EXECUTIVE-POST – TODAY’S NEWSLETTER BRIEFING

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Essays, Opinions and Curated News in Health Economics, Investing, Business, Management and Financial Planning for Physician Entrepreneurs and their Savvy Advisors and Consultants

“Serving Almost One Million Doctors, Financial Advisors and Medical Management Consultants Daily“

A Partner of the Institute of Medical Business Advisors , Inc.

http://www.MedicalBusinessAdvisors.com

SPONSORED BY: Marcinko & Associates, Inc.

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http://www.MarcinkoAssociates.com

Daily Update Provided By Staff Reporters Since 2007.
How May We Serve You?
© Copyright Institute of Medical Business Advisors, Inc. All rights reserved. 2025

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US stocks got crushed on Thursday, pulling back from the previous day’s historic rally amid concerns that President Trump’s broad trade offensive has become a direct confrontation with China.

CITE: https://tinyurl.com/2h47urt5

The S&P 500 (GSPC) dropped almost 3.5%, while the tech-heavy NASDAQ Composite (IXIC) tumbled 4.3%. The Dow Jones Industrial Average (^DJI) fell about 1,000 points, or 2.5%. The 10-year Treasury yield (^TNX), in high focus amid bond market whiplash, ended the day flat around 4.39%.

CITE: https://tinyurl.com/tj8smmes

The major averages sank to session lows after the White House confirmed updated tariff figures released on Thursday brings the total increased levies on Chinese goods to 145%, not 125% as previously stated.

Visualize: How private equity tangled banks in a web of debt, from the Financial Times.

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REPUTATIONAL BANKRUPTCY: Of the American Dollar

Posted on April 9, 2025 by Dr. David Edward Marcinko MBA MEd CMP™

By Vitaliy Katsenelson CFA

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The Reputational Bankruptcy of the American Dollar
I am in an unenviable position. The policy coming out of the White House has a significant impact on economics, more than ever before in my career. If I say anything positive about that policy, I’ll be put in the MAGA camp. If I criticize it, I’ll be accused of suffering from Trump derangement syndrome. I am hired by you to make the best investment decisions possible. Rather than see me as engaged in political commentary, I’d ask that you view my remarks as purely analytical.

Let me give you this analogy. I live in Denver. Let’s imagine I am a huge Broncos fan, and the Broncos are playing the Chicago Bears. If I am betting a significant amount of money on this game, I should put my affinity for the Broncos and hatred of the Chicago Bears aside and analyze data and facts. The Broncos are either going to win or lose; my wanting them to win has zero impact on the outcome. The same applies to my analysis here. My motto in life is Seneca’s saying, “Time discovers truth.” I just try to discover it before time does.

When it comes to politics, I also have a significant advantage. I was not born in this country. From a young age, I was brainwashed about communism, not about team Republican versus team Democrat. The failure of the Soviet Union de-brainwashed me fast concerning the virtues of communism and converted me into a believer in free markets.

As a result, I never bought into either party’s ideology, and thus in the last four presidential elections I voted for a Republican, an independent, a Democrat, and wrote in my youngest daughter, Mia Sarah (not in that order). In my articles I have criticized the policies of both Biden (student loan forgiveness, unions) and Trump (Bitcoin reserve).

I remind myself that in times like these you have to be a nuanced thinker. Some of Trump’s policies are terrific, others … not so much (I am being diplomatic here).

Scott Fitzgerald once said “The test of a first-rate intelligence is the ability to hold two opposed ideas in mind at the same time, and still retain the ability to function.” In 2025 we are taking this “first-rate intelligence” test daily.

What will happen to the US dollar? The US dollar will likely continue to get weaker, which is inflationary for the US. Let me start with some easily identifiable reasons:

We have too much debt. We ran 6-7% budget deficits while our economy was growing and unemployment was at record lows. Now we have $36 trillion in debt. Our interest expenses exceed our defense spending, and these costs will continue to climb. If/when we go into recession, we may see something we have not seen in a long time – higher interest rates. Our budget deficits will balloon to between 9–12%, and the debt market, realizing that inflation (i.e., money printing) is inevitable, will say, “Pay up!”

New competition from Bitcoin. President Trump’s approval of Bitcoin as a potential reserve currency is one of the most self-serving and anti-American things I’ve seen any president do. The US dollar is the world’s reserve currency. We still have little competition for that title. China could be a contender, but it is not a democracy and has capital controls. This policy has no upside for America, only downside.

A stronger Europe. Ironically, we may inadvertently create a stronger Europe by threatening to abandon NATO. I don’t want to insult European clients (or my European friends), but the following analogy describes the US-Europe relationship on some level: Europe gradually evolved into a trust fund kid (when it came to security) and the US turned into its sugar daddy. The trust fund kid was incredibly dependent on the sugar daddy. It criticized its parent for being a barbarian and money-driven, but it relied heavily on that parent to protect it from bullies.

President Trump cut off Europe’s allowance by threatening that the US might not protect Europe from Russia. This has forced Europe to spend more money on defense. Outside of Germany (which has little debt), few European economies can afford that. This may force Europe (or at least some European countries) to become more pragmatic – to cut social programs and bureaucracy. If this leads to a stronger Europe both economically and militarily, the euro will be competing with the US dollar. This is a big if.

Our new foreign policy.

When people describe President Trump’s foreign policy as “transactional,” they’re highlighting a fundamental shift in how America engages with the world – one with profound implications for our global standing, national interests, and the US dollar. The shift affects both types of capital – financial and reputational.

Reputational capital isn’t at risk in ‘one-shot’ transactions like house selling. Imagine you’re selling your primary residence and moving elsewhere. Do you disclose every flaw, or let the buyer figure things out? Your incentive is to maximize short-term profits. You’ll likely never meet this buyer again, and therefore there are incentives not to care what they’ll think of you afterward. You’ll be transactional, seeking the highest price possible for your biggest asset. This exemplifies a ‘one-shot’ system where future interactions aren’t expected.

Contrast this with a relationship- and trust-based system. Now imagine you are a homebuilder in a small town. Your suppliers only extend credit if you have a reputation for paying on time. Your employees do quality work only if you treat them fairly. Your buyers tell friends about their experience with you. The incentives naturally create a relational approach. In this trust-based system, incentives skew toward maximizing long-term profits, where reputational capital becomes the glue creating continuity.

Reputational capital radiates predictability – you know how someone will behave based on their history – but operating with low or negative reputational capital is difficult and expensive. People won’t enter long-term contracts with you or will demand external guarantees. Many potential partners will simply refuse to deal with you.

Building reputational capital works like adding pennies to a jar – each good deed incrementally adds to your standing. Yet reputational capital can collapse instantly by removing the jar’s bottom. A single breach of trust doesn’t just remove one penny; it can wipe out your entire balance and plunge you into reputational bankruptcy. The math is brutally asymmetric: good deeds might add a point or two, while bad deeds subtract by factors of 50 or 100.

This doesn’t mean transactions shouldn’t be profitable. If you’re accumulating reputational capital while consistently losing money, you’re probably in the wrong business. Each deal should be evaluated considering both long-term financial and reputational capital.

Individual transactions can sacrifice some profit but cannot afford to lose reputational capital. A “one-shot” transactional approach used in a trust-system environment may provide greater short-term profitability, but if this success comes at the expense of reputational capital, the long-term consequences for America’s global position could be devastating.

This brings us to our current foreign policy.

Relationships between nations are a trust-based system. I’d argue it’s a super-relational system because it’s multigenerational, lasting beyond the life of any one human. Reputational capital is paramount here.

Part of the US’s strength has been the soft power – the reputational capital – it exerted. We had a lot of friends, which helped us to be more effective in dealing with our foes. We keep telling ourselves that America is an “exceptional” nation. This exceptionalism didn’t just come from our financial and military might – it accumulated based on our reputational capital.

Though we don’t always succeed, we are a people who try to do the right thing. Our exceptionalism has been earned through our actions. We are the country that helped rebuild Europe and gave it six decades to repay lend-lease. We toppled communism.

I don’t know the nuances of the Ukraine mineral deal, but initially it had the optics of extortion. Though I think the renegotiated and signed version appears to be fair to both sides, forcing repayment while Ukraine is dodging Russian missiles made the US look transactional.

Actions by President Trump over the last month have undermined our reputation. We are quickly becoming a “one-shot” transactional player in a trust-based environment. Imposing tariffs on Canada on a whim to try to get it to become the 51st state erodes American reputational capital. So does not ruling out America invading Greenland. This puts us on the same moral plane as Russia invading Ukraine.

The conversation about tariffs has many nuances. For instance, I don’t know anyone who opposes reciprocal tariffs – they seem fair and don’t consume any reputational capital. But tariffs that are used as weapons in a trade war in order to annex another country erode reputational capital. Threatening to leave NATO and not protect countries that don’t spend enough on their defense diminishes reputational capital. Maybe the only way to get European countries to spend on defense was to threaten not to defend them – you can agree or disagree with the rationale behind each of Trump’s decisions, but what can’t be argued is that they undermined our reputational capital.

As we lose soft power, our influence will diminish, and thus so will perceptions of our power. The world will start looking at us not from the perspective of the continuity of generations but of presidential cycles. The word of the American president will have an expiration date of the next presidential or mid-term election.

There are two negotiation styles – Warren Buffett’s and Donald Trump’s. Both have their advantages and disadvantages. Buffett will give you one offer and one offer only. Once the deal is agreed to, even just verbally, that is the deal. Critics would say that there is downside to that predictability, as foes know how you are going to respond. Donald Trump’s style is to be unpredictable, which has its own advantages when you deal with foes – it keeps opponents guessing. But it destroys trust with your allies.

In a world of fiat currencies, all currency is a financial and reputational promise. President Trump, with the help of DOGE (and maybe even tariffs) may increase our financial strength. I hope he does, but it will likely come at a very high cost to our reputational capital, and therefore US global influence and the US dollar will continue its decline.

How are we positioned for this?

About half of our portfolio is foreign companies whose sales are not in dollars. They will benefit from a weaker dollar. We also have exposure to oil, which is priced in the US dollar and usually appreciates when the dollar weakens.

A weaker dollar means our imports will become more expensive, which is inflationary. We own many companies with pricing power and also companies that have claims on someone else’s revenues. Take Uber for example: they get about 20% of each ride. If the cost of the ride goes up, so does their dollar take.

Why does President Trump keep pushing crypto?

In July 2019, Trump said the following: “I am not a fan of Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies, which are not money, and whose value is highly volatile and based on thin air.” Five years later he promised to establish the US Crypto Reserve, and in 2025 he did.

What changed? There is no logical reason for an American president to endorse crypto. None. Here is the honest answer: Crypto bros made mega-contributions to his campaign.

To top it off, three days before he took office he issued $TRUMP – a shitcoin. Believe it or not, “shitcoin” is a technical term in the crypto community (any coin other than Bitcoin is called a shitcoin by Bitcoin “maximalists”, folks who believe Bitcoin is the one and only digital currency). The future sitting president literally issued – I don’t want to call it a currency, so I guess shitcoin is the right name – that will at some point decline to zero in value. In other words, he’ll fleece his loyal followers who purchase $TRUMP of billions of dollars.

I previously referenced both reputational capital and soft power. These types of acts by a sitting president subtract from both.

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IPOs: Delayed

Posted on April 7, 2025 by Dr. David Edward Marcinko MBA MEd CMP™

By Staff Reporters

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Initial Public Offering Defined

IPO stands for initial public offering. It is when a company takes a portion of their shares and makes them available for the general public to buy on the open market. It is a way for the company to raise money by selling those shares to the general public. You can usually access shares from an IPO by working directly with an investment bank.

Paused IPOs

Private companies StubHub and Klarna each paused their imminent plans to go public.

Klarna, which was set to IPO on this Monday, was expected to jump-start the frozen IPO market this year with an expected ~$15 billion valuation.

StubHub, meanwhile, reportedly wants to wait for the market to calm down before resuming its plans to go public.

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BLACK MONDAY REDEUX: Interesting Day or Financial Crisis?

Posted on April 7, 2025 by Dr. David Edward Marcinko MBA MEd CMP™

BILL ACKMAN versus JIM KRAMER

By Staff Reporters

SPONSOR: http://www.CertifiedMedicalPlanner.org

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Interesting Day?

Markets: Last week’s market bloodbath will go down in the history books. The S&P 500’s 10% plunge on Thursday and Friday, after President Trump announced massive tariffs, ranks among the steepest two-day decline in the last 70 years, on par with Black Monday in 1987, the post-Lehman Brothers rout in 2008, and the Covid plunge in March 2020. More than $6 trillion was wiped out from stocks over two days, and the NASDAQ entered a bear market, down 20% from a previous high.

Trading restarted at 9:30 am ET for what Bill Ackman predicts will be “one of the more interesting days in our country’s economic history.”

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Monday Crash?

On the other hand, CNBC host and market commentator Jim Cramer just warned that America is in store for another “Black Monday” market crash similar to the record 1987 collapse if President Trump doesn’t curtail his tariff plan.

Cramer — who noted that the 1987 crash saw the Dow Jones Industrial Average fall by 22.6% in a single day — said the bloodbath could be repeated after the brutal two-day sell-off following the announcement of Trump’s sweeping tariffs against nearly 90 countries.

If the president doesn’t try to reach out and reward these countries and companies that play by the rules, then the 1987 scenario … the one where we went down three days and then down 22% on Monday, has the most cogency,” Cramer said on his show Saturday, referencing the worst single-day fall in the history of the Dow.

QUESTION: Who is correct; Ackman or Cramer?

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Registered Investment Advisor VERSUS Hedge Fund Manager

Posted on April 7, 2025 by Dr. David Edward Marcinko MBA MEd CMP™

SPONSOR: http://www.CertifiedMedicalPlanner.org

By Staff Reporters

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A hedge fund is a limited partnership of private investors whose money is pooled and managed by professional fund managers. These managers use a wide range of strategies, including leverage (borrowed money) and the trading of nontraditional assets, to earn above-average investment returns. A hedge fund investment is often considered a risky, alternative investment choice and usually requires a high minimum investment or net worth. Hedge funds typically target wealthy investors.

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The Hedge Fund manager I am considering is a Registered Investment Adviser [RIA]

QUESTION: What is a Registered Investment Advisor?

If the fund manager is an entity, then any individual you deal with will be a registered investment adviser representative. If the fund manager is an individual, then that individual is a registered investment adviser. In either case, the designation implies several steps have been taken.

In order to become a registered investment adviser, an individual must register for and pass the Series 65 Uniform Investment Adviser Law Exam, a three-hour, 130-question computer-based exam administered by the North American Securities Administrators Association. Topics covered include economics and analysis, investment vehicles, investment recommendations and strategies, and ethics and legal guidelines. A passing score is 70 percent or higher.

Once an individual has passed the Series 65, he or she must then apply via Form ADV to become a registered investment adviser. This application is made to either a state authority or to the SEC, depending on the adviser’s assets under management. If assets under management exceed $30 million, then the adviser must register with the SEC.

Form ADV consists of two parts. Part I provides general information to the regulatory authority. Part II is designed to be distributed to potential clients, and includes disclosure of a decent amount of information about the adviser. If the manager is a registered investment adviser, then you should expect to receive as part of the offering documentation either a current copy of Part II of the adviser’s Form ADV or a brochure that contains all the current information in Part II of Form ADV.

In addition to filing Form ADV and paying a small fee, the registered investment adviser becomes subject to extra administrative/regulatory burden as well as capital adequacy requirements that state the Adviser must maintain certain net worth levels.

By and large, because of the extra administrative burden as well as restrictions on certain activities, hedge fund managers attempt to avoid registering as investment advisers. Whether such managers can or cannot avoid such registration is largely dependent upon the state in which the manager operates. In California, for instance, hedge fund managers must register as investment advisers. In New York, such registration is not necessary. Not surprisingly, hedge fund managers located in California are rare, while they are quite plentiful in New York. 

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HEDGE FUND: Wrap Fees?

Posted on April 5, 2025 by Dr. David Edward Marcinko MBA MEd CMP™

Staff Reporters

SPONSOR: http://www.CertifiedMedicalPlanner.org

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A hedge fund is a limited partnership of private investors whose money is pooled and managed by professional fund managers. These managers use a wide range of strategies, including leverage (borrowed money) and the trading of nontraditional assets, to earn above-average investment returns. A hedge fund investment is often considered a risky, alternative investment choice and usually requires a high minimum investment or net worth. Hedge funds typically target wealthy investors.

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My stock broker is telling me about a “wrap-fee” program involving a hedge fund manager.

QUESTION: What is a Wrap Fee?

A wrap fee program is a service that provides investment advice and portfolio management to clients for one all-inclusive fee. The fee pays for the services provided to the client, including but not limited to securities transactions, portfolio management, research, brokerage, and administrative services. Wrap fee programs also provide an understanding of a client’s financial goals and objectives; research and selection of assets; implementation of investment decisions; account statements, and access to real-time financial data.

The Investment Advisers Act of 1940 regulates investment advisors when they offer these wrap fee programs and requires them to provide comprehensive disclosure documents before investing. This act helps ensure clients have access to all important information that affects their investment decisions.

QUESTION: Why do I need my stock broker? Can I just go directly to the hedge fund manager?

Yes, you can, but you may find a different fee arrangement when you reach the hedge fund manager, and you may be participating in an unethical transaction. When hedge fund managers set up separate accounts for wrap-fee clients, they agree to take a set fee in exchange for managing this money. They also enter into agreements with one or more brokers to help market this aspect of their money management business. A portion of the wrap fee you pay goes to the broker, and a portion goes to the manager. Incentive compensation is not generally used.

When approached directly, hedge fund managers will typically offer only the hedge fund, complete with incentive compensation and pooled investment features. However, if the hedge fund manager is willing to set up a separate account, it is possible that the investor will find the set fee much less than what he or she would have paid in a wrap fee account through a broker.

Finally, the very large caveat to all this is that the ethics of a hedge fund manager who steals clients from brokers with whom he has a marketing relationship ought to be called into question. And when it comes to hedge funds, the ethics of the manager are of paramount importance.

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STOCK MARKETS PLUNGE: A Friday Redeux

Posted on April 4, 2025 by Dr. David Edward Marcinko MBA MEd CMP™

BREAKING US STOCK MARKET NEWS

By ME-P Staff Reporters

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Stocks in the U.S. opened sharply lower on Friday, extending a slide from the previous trading session triggered by President Trump’s announcement of sweeping new tariffs on U.S. imports earlier this week. 

The S&P 500 fell 144 points, or 2.5%, to 5,252 as of 9:34 a.m. EST. The Dow Jones Industrial Average tumbled 1,006 points, or 2.5%, and the NASDAQ Composite slid 3.1%.

The indexes’ free-fall Thursday was their biggest one-day drop since 2020, with more than $2 trillion in investor wealth erased from the S&P 500. The S&P 500 and Dow each sank more than 4% yesterday, while the tech-heavy NASDAQ plunged nearly 6%. 

NOTE: Drops of this magnitude aren’t unheard of on Wall Street, but they’re rare. Over the last 25 years, the S&P 500 has fallen 4% in a single day 38 times, according to Adam Turnquist, chief technical strategist for brokerage firm LPL Financial.

UPDATE: [1:06pm EST]

DJIA 38,962.49 -1,583.44 (-3.91%)

NASDAQ 15,779.20 -771.41 (-4.66%)

S&P 500 5,148.70 -247.82 (-4.59%)

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MONEY SCRIPTS: Fundamental Subconscious Beliefs and Economic Behavioral Patterns Defined

Posted on April 4, 2025 by Dr. David Edward Marcinko MBA MEd CMP™

SALES PSYCHOLOGY FOR INVESTMENT ADVISORS, FINANCIAL ADVISORS, INSURANCE AGENTS, WEALTH MANAGERS AND FINANCIAL PLANNERS

By Dr. David Edward Marcinko; MBA MEd CMP®

http://www.MarcinkoAssociates.com

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SPONSOR: http://www.CertifiedMedicalPlanner.org

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Stocks were decimated yesterday in the first full trading day following President Trump’s tariff announcement. It was the biggest single-day decline since the start of the Covid-19 pandemic in March 2020. Every Magnificent Seven stock was battered—Apple worst of all. And so perhaps it is a good time to discuss the concept of “Money Scripts”.

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Money Scripts are unconscious beliefs about money that are typically only partially true, are developed in childhood, and drive adult financial behaviors. Money scripts may be the result of “financial flashpoints,” which are salient early experiences around money that have a lasting impact in adulthood. Money scripts are often passed down through the generations and social groups often share similar money scripts. And so, we argue that Money scripts are at the root of all illogical, ill-advised, self-destructive, or self-limiting financial behaviors.

In research at Kansas State University [KSU], researchers identified four distinct Money script patterns, which are associated with financial health and predict financial behaviors. These include: (a) money avoidance, (b) money worship, (c) money status, and (d) money vigilance [personal communication Brad Klontz, PsyD, CFP®, Kenneth Shubin-Stein, MD, MPH, MS, CFA and Sonya Britt, PhD, CFP®].

And so, we all like to think our financial decisions are fully rational, but the truth is that our subconscious beliefs have a dramatic impact on our money and financial decisions. These money scripts are important to know and understand. A summary is below:

            Money Avoidance

Money avoidance scripts are illustrated by beliefs such as “Rich people are greedy,” “It is not okay to have more than you need,” and “I do not deserve a lot of money when others have less than me.” Money avoiders believe that money is bad or that they do not deserve money. They believe that wealthy people are corrupt and there is virtue in living with less money. They may sabotage their financial success or give money away even though they cannot afford to do so. Money avoidance scripts may be associated with lower income and lower net worth and predict financial behaviors including ignoring bank statements, overspending, financial dependence on others, financial enabling of others, and having trouble sticking to a budget.

            Money Worship 

Money worship is typified by beliefs such as “More money will make you happier,” “You can never have enough money,” and “Money would solve all my problems.” Money worshipers are convinced that money is the key to happiness. At the same time, they believe that one can never have enough. Money worships have lower income, lower net worth, and higher credit card debt. They are more likely to be hoarders, spend compulsively, and put work ahead of family.

            Money Status

Money status scripts include “I will not buy something unless it is new,” “Your self-worth equals you net worth,” and “If something isn’t considered the ‘best’ it is not worth buying.” Money status seekers see net worth and self-worth as being synonymous. They pretend to have more money than they do and tend to overspend as a result. They often grew up in poorer families and believe that the universe should take care of their financial needs if they live a virtuous life. Money status scripts are associated with compulsive gambling, overspending, being financially dependent on others, and lying to one’s spouse about spending.

            Money Vigilance

Money vigilant beliefs include “It is important to save for a rainy day,” “You should always look for the best deal, even if it takes more time,” and “I would be a nervous wreck if I did not have an emergency fund.” The money vigilants are alert, watchful and concerned about their financial welfare. They are more likely to save and less likely to buy on credit. As a result, they tend to have higher income and higher net worth. They also have a tendency to be anxious about money and are secretive about their financial status outside of their household. While money vigilance is associated with frugality and saving, excessive anxiety can keep someone from enjoying the benefits that money can provide.

Identification

When money scripts are identified, it is helpful to examine where they came from. A simple behavioral finance technique involves reflecting on the following questions:

  • What three lessons did you learn about money from your mother?
  • What three lessons did you learn about money from your father?
  • What is your first memory around money?
  • What is your most painful money memory?
  • What is your most joyful money memory?
  • What money scripts emerged for you from this experience?
  • How have they helped you?
  • How have they hurt you?
  • What money scripts do you need to change?

Conclusion

Ideally, from a balanced middle ground, we can see past the limitations of money scripts, our self and others who are polarized. Those who believe “Money is meant to be spent” or “Money is meant to be saved” have a world view that results in extreme positions. Labeling them as “correct” or “wrong” is not a useful way to try to shift anyone’s polarized money script beliefs.

EDUCATION: Books

SPEAKING: Dr. Marcinko will be speaking and lecturing, signing and opining, teaching and preaching, storming and performing at many locations throughout the USA this year! His tour of witty and serious pontifications may be scheduled on a planned or ad-hoc basis; for public or private meetings and gatherings; formally, informally, or over lunch or dinner. All medical societies, financial advisory firms or Broker-Dealers are encouraged to submit a RFP for speaking engagements: CONTACT: MarcinkoAdvisors@outlook.com 

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TRADITIONAL INVESTMENT PORTFOLIO DIVERSIFICATION MODEL: Routed by Larry Fink CEO of BlackRock?

Posted on April 3, 2025 by Dr. David Edward Marcinko MBA MEd CMP™

BREAKING NEWS – MARKET VOLATILITY

By Staff Reporters

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US stocks nosedived on Thursday, with the Dow tumbling more than 1,200 points as President Trump’s surprisingly steep “Liberation Day” tariffs sent shock waves through markets worldwide. The tech-heavy NASDAQ Composite (IXIC) led the sell-off, plummeting over 4%. The S&P 500 (GSPC) dove 3.7%, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average (^DJI) tumbled roughly 3%. [ongoing story].

So, does the traditional 60 stock / 40 bond strategy still work or do we need another portfolio model?

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The 60/40 strategy evolved out of American economist Harry Markowitz’s groundbreaking 1950s work on modern portfolio theory, which holds that investors should diversify their holdings with a mix of high-risk, high-return assets and low-risk, low-return assets based on their individual circumstances.

While a portfolio with a mix of 40% bonds and 60% equities may bring lower returns than all-stock holdings, the diversification generally brings lower variance in the returns—meaning more reliability—as long as there isn’t a strong correlation between stock and bond returns (ideally the correlation is negative, with bond returns rising while stock returns fall).

CORRELATION: https://medicalexecutivepost.com/2024/10/27/correlation-diversification-in-finance-and-investments/

For 60/40 to work, bonds must be less volatile than stocks and economic growth and inflation have to move up and down in tandem. Typically, the same economic growth that powers rallies in equities also pushes up inflation—and bond returns down. Conversely, in a recession stocks drop and inflation is low, pushing up bond prices.

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  • But, the traditional 60/40 portfolio may “no longer fully represent true diversification,” BlackRock CEO Larry Fink writes in a new letter to investors.
  • Instead, the “future standard portfolio” may move toward 50/30/20 with stocks, bonds and private assets like real estate, infrastructure and private credit, Fink writes.
  • Here’s what experts say individual investors may want to consider before dabbling in private investments.

It may be time to rethink the traditional 60/40 investment portfolio, according to BlackRock CEO Larry Fink. In a new letter to investors, Fink writes the traditional allocation comprised of 60% stocks and 40% bonds that dates back to the 1950s “may no longer fully represent true diversification.“

DI-WORSIFICATION: https://medicalexecutivepost.com/2024/04/09/what-is-financial-portfolio-di-worsification-2/

EDUCATION: Books

SPEAKING: Dr. Marcinko will be speaking and lecturing, signing and opining, teaching and preaching, storming and performing at many locations throughout the USA this year! His tour of witty and serious pontifications may be scheduled on a planned or ad-hoc basis; for public or private meetings and gatherings; formally, informally, or over lunch or dinner. All medical societies, financial advisory firms or Broker-Dealers are encouraged to submit a RFP for speaking engagements: MarcinkoAdvisors@outlook.com 

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OBTAIN: An Unbiased Second Financial Planning Opinion

Posted on April 2, 2025 by Dr. David Edward Marcinko MBA MEd CMP™

By Ann Miller RN MHA CPHQ CMP™

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Finally … Fiduciary second investing and financial planning opinions right here!

Telephonic or electronic advice for medical professionals that is:

  • Objective, affordable, medically focused and financially personalized
  • Rendered by a pre-screened financial consultant for doctors and medical professionals
  • Offered on a pay-as-you-go basis, by phone or secure e-mail transmission

The iMBA Discussion Forum™ is a physician-to-financial advisor telephone or e-mail portal that connects independent financial professionals to doctors, nurses or healthcare executives desiring affordable and unbiased financial planning advice.

Medical professionals and healthcare executives can now receive direct access to pre-screened iMBA professionals in the areas of Investing, Financial Planning, Asset Allocation, Portfolio Management, Insurance, Mortgage and Lending, Human Resources, Retirement Planning and Employee Benefits. To assist our medical professional and healthcare executive members, we can be contracted with per-minute or per-project fees, and contacted by client phone, email or secure instant messaging.

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http://www.MARCINKOASSOCIATES.com

E-mail CONTACT: MarcinkoAdvisors@outlook.com

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HEDGE FUNDS: In Individual Retirement Accounts?

Posted on April 2, 2025 by Dr. David Edward Marcinko MBA MEd CMP™

By Staff Reporters

SPONSOR: http://www.CertifiedMedicalPlanner.org

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QUESTION: What is a Hedge Fund?

A hedge fund is a limited partnership of private investors whose money is pooled and managed by professional fund managers. These managers use a wide range of strategies, including leverage (borrowed money) and the trading of nontraditional assets, to earn above-average investment returns. A hedge fund investment is often considered a risky, alternative investment choice and usually requires a high minimum investment or net worth. Hedge funds typically target wealthy investors.

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SPONSOR: http://www.MARCINKOASSOCIATES.com

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QUESTION: Can I invest my Individual Retirement Account [IRA] in a Hedge Fund?

This is up to the manager, but there is no legal restriction on a hedge fund accepting individual retirement account (IRA) assets. IRA accounts are not well suited for funds that make extensive use of leverage, however. In such cases, the fund is likely to generate significant amounts of unrelated business taxable income (UBTI) – profits of the fund attributable to the use of leverage. The holder of an IRA account must pay taxes on UBTI, even if the UBTI was generated in an IRA account.

But, today’s hedge funds may or may not use leverage. Many hedge funds are not hedged at all, but rather are just specialized versions of regular long stock portfolios. If such funds do not use much leverage, IRA investors will not encounter much difficulty with UBTI and should not hesitate in considering these funds.

In considering whether to accept IRA money, hedge fund managers must consider several factors. If the only type of retirement money accepted by the hedge funds is IRA money, then the manager has no limit on how much retirement money the fund can accept. If, however, there are other types of retirement money invested in the fund, such as pension funds, IRA money will be counted towards a total of 25 percent of fund assets that can be invested in retirement accounts before the fund becomes subject to the Employment Retirement Income Security Act of 1974 (ERISA). Funds subject to ERISA regulations face a heavy administrative burden and more restrictions than most fund managers like.

Finally, IRA distributions from a hedge fund are subject to the standard 20 percent withholding unless the funds are directly rolled over to other qualified plans.

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MERGER ARBITRAGE: Risk Arbitrage Defined

Posted on March 30, 2025 by Dr. David Edward Marcinko MBA MEd CMP™

By Dr. David Edward Marcinko; MBA MEd CMP™

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Sponsor: http://www.CertifiedMedicalPlanner.org

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Merger Arbitrage (a.k.a. Risk Arbitrage)

Merger risk arbitrage, while a subset of a larger strategy called event-driven arbitrage, represents a sufficient portion of the market-neutral universe to warrant separate discussion.

Merger arbitrage earned a bad reputation in the 1980s when Ivan Boesky and others like him came to regard insider trading as a valid investment strategy. That notwithstanding, merger arbitrage is a respected strategy and when executed properly, can be highly profitable. It bets on the outcomes of mergers, takeovers and other corporate events involving two stocks which may become one.

Example:

A classic example is acquisition of SDL Inc. (SDLI) by JDS Uniphase Corp (JDSU). On July 10, 2010 JDSU announced its intent to acquire SDLI by offering to exchange 3.8 shares of its own shares for one share of SDLI. At that time, the JDSU shares traded at $101 and SDLI at $320.5. It was apparent that there was almost 20 percent profit to be realized if the deal went through (3.8 JDSU shares at $101 are worth $383 while SDLI was worth just $320.5).

This apparent mispricing reflected the market’s expectation about the deal’s outcome. Since the deal was subject to the approval of the U.S. Justice Department and shareholders, there was some doubt about its successful completion.

Risk arbitrageurs who did their homework and properly estimated the probability of success bought shares of SDLI and simultaneously sold short shares of JDSU on a 3.8 to 1 ratio, thus locking in the future profit. Convergence took place about eight months later, in February 2011, when the deal was finally approved and the two stocks began trading at exact parity, eliminating the mis-pricing and allowing arbitrageurs to realize a profit.

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Hedge Fund Research defines the strategy as follows:

Merger Arbitrage,also known as risk arbitrage, involves investing in securities of companies that are the subject of some form of extraordinary corporate transaction, including acquisition or merger proposals, exchange offers, cash tender offers and leveraged buy-outs. These transactions will generally involve the exchange of securities for cash, other securities or a combination of cash and other securities. Typically, a manager purchases the stock of a company being acquired or merging with another company, and sells short the stock of the acquiring company. A manager engaged in merger arbitrage transactions will derive profit (or loss) by realizing the price differential between the price of the securities purchased and the value ultimately realized when the deal is consummated. The success of this strategy usually is dependent upon the proposed merger, tender offer or exchange offer being consummated.

When a tender or exchange offer or a proposal for a merger is publicly announced, the offer price or the value of the securities of the acquiring company to be received is typically greater than the current market price of the securities of the target company. Normally, the stock of an acquisition target appreciates while the acquiring company’s stock decreases in value. If a manager determines that it is probable that the transaction will be consummated, it may purchase shares of the target company and in most instances, sell short the stock of the acquiring company. Managers may employ the use of equity options as a low-risk alternative to the outright purchase or sale of common stock. Many managers will hedge against market risk by purchasing S&P put options or put option spreads.

Cite: https://www.hfr.com See § 23.03[E].


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FINANCIAL ADVISORS & MEDICAL MANAGEMENT CONSULTANTS: Marcinko & Associates, Inc

Posted on March 19, 2025 by Dr. David Edward Marcinko MBA MEd CMP™

SPONSOR: http://www.MarcinkoAssociates.com

D. E. Marcinko & Associates Core Operating Values

9.   We act with honesty, integrity and are always straightforward.
8.   We strive to be innovative, creative, iconoclastic, and flexible.
7.   We admit and learn from mistakes and don’t repeat them.
6.   We work hard always as competitors are trying to catch up.
5.   We treat others with dignity and respect.
4.   We are the onus of consulting advice for the well being of others.
3.   We fight complacency as former success is in the past.
2.   The best management styles are timeless, not timely.
1.   Our clients are colleagues and always come first.

EDUCATION: Books

SPEAKING: Dr. David Edward Marcinko MBA MEd will be speaking and lecturing, signing and opining, teaching and preaching, storming and performing at many locations throughout the USA this year! His tour of witty and serious pontifications may be scheduled on a planned or ad-hoc basis; for public or private meetings and gatherings; formally, informally, or over lunch or dinner. All medical societies, financial advisory firms or Broker-Dealers are encouraged to submit a RFP for speaking engagements.

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CONTACT: Ann Miller RN MHA at: MarcinkoAdvisors@outlook.com 

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CES: Las Vegas Consumer Electronics Show

Posted on February 24, 2025 by Dr. David Edward Marcinko MBA MEd CMP™

FULL ARTICLE WITH TAKE AWAY POINTS

By Vitaliy Katsenelson CFA

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Key Take Away Points

  • The Consumer Electronics Show revealed that robotaxis are expanding beyond just Waymo, with multiple players entering the market – this fragmentation could actually benefit Uber’s switchboard system and transform sectors like school transportation.
  • Chinese EV manufacturers have leapfrogged traditional auto manufacturing much like Africa skipped landlines for mobile phones – their fresh designs and cost advantages could seriously challenge Western incumbents if tariffs weren’t a factor.
  • Autonomous and remote-controlled equipment is set to revolutionize traditional industries like construction, mining, and farming – transforming physically demanding jobs into office work and potentially reshaping immigration policy needs.
  • The path to cracking the US market has fundamentally changed – companies no longer need traditional retail gatekeepers like Best Buy or Costco, just a product and Amazon advertising budget, as demonstrated by companies like Renpho.
  • Brand value remains crucial in an era of rapid technology commoditization – your observations of the 15 Oura ring competitors and the GoPro story demonstrate that without strong brand differentiation, even good products can’t command premium pricing in today’s market.

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Full Article

I wrote this from Las Vegas, where my son Jonah and I were at CES (the Consumer Electronics Show). 

In investing and life, it’s very easy to get tunnel vision – doing what works and staying in your comfort zone. I wanted to attend CES to shake myself out of this pattern.

It’s hard to describe how massive this event is. It sprawls through five enormous pavilions at the Las Vegas Convention Center and takes up two floors of the Venetian Hotel. It is attended by over one hundred thousand people. 

Here are my initial, off-the-cuff, somewhat random thoughts from CES. 

Robotaxis There were several robotaxi companies here, in addition to Alphabet’s Waymo. Multiple robotaxis are going to hit the market over the next few years; it won’t be just Waymo. Most will start geofenced (they’ll work in specific areas), just like Waymo did. 

This is good news for Uber: The more fragmented the robotaxi market, the more players are in this market, the more valuable is Uber’s switchboard system (which will bring higher utilization to robotaxi operators). 

This will also hugely transform public transportation. Think about school buses – that market is primed for disruption since most buses follow the same route every day in a relatively small area.

Chinese EVs Chinese electric cars are awesome. This reminds me of what happened in Africa. Most of Africa skipped phone landlines completely and went straight to wireless phones. Similarly, Chinese automakers weren’t great at making regular gas-powered cars (everyone else had dominated that space), so they just leapfrogged straight to electric cars. And leapfrog they did – they’ll make even Tesla work hard. 

I can’t speak for their reliability, but their designs are fresh; and without labor unions mandating how many workers need to screw in a single lightbulb, they’re much cheaper than Western alternatives.

If they hit the US market without tariffs, they would decimate the incumbents – similar to what Japanese carmakers did in the early 80s to the Big Three.

Machines on Autopilot Autonomous and remote-controlled equipment is going to change construction, mining, and farming completely. Imagine excavators digging dirt on a project in the middle of nowhere, operated remotely from air-conditioned urban offices – maybe even by experienced operators brought out of retirement. 

Jobs that were physically demanding and that pulled workers away from their families are going to become regular nine-to-five office jobs. This means workers can have normal family lives and work longer – way past when they’d normally have to retire due to the physical demands of the job.

Or picture a colony of Caterpillar trucks working autonomously 24/7 at a mine site. The efficiency and safety gains would be huge. You’ll still need workers, but different workers, and fewer of them.

Think about agriculture. All those jobs that “Americans don’t want to do” will be done by tractors or other farm equipment going through strawberry fields, using AI to spray pesticides only where needed and collecting apples and oranges.

Here’s an economic observation with slight policy overtones: The nature of the job market will change. This is one of those turning points in history where our immigration policy should be forward-thinking, adjusted for the world where AI will be playing a larger role in it (that is inevitable), not just focused on the past and today’s needs.

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Cracking the US Market China has a significant competitive advantage in manufacturing; it has a very robust ecosystem and well-oiled supply chain – nothing new here. Its labor is no longer the cheapest, but Chinese manufacturing is getting more automated. 

We talked to one of the chief designers of Renpho, a Hong Kong company that makes digital scales (among other gadgets) and is the number one seller of those scales on Amazon. They outsource all manufacturing to China, and the factory that manufactures their scales is completely automated. 

What’s also interesting is that in the past, to break into the US market, you had to have relationships with Best Buy and Costco. They were the gatekeepers and also the quality-control testers. Today, all you need is a product. You have direct access to the US consumer through Amazon – you just have to be willing to spend on Amazon advertising to promote your product.

Brand or Bust It’s incredible how fast technology gets commoditized. There are literally fifteen (!) companies selling Oura-like rings (sleep-tracking biometric devices worn as a ring; I’ve been wearing one for five years).

In technology, you need to keep moving all the time or you’ll be eaten by the competition (true in life in general), but you also need a strong brand. I couldn’t tell the difference between my Oura ring and the fifteen replicas, most of them sold at a fraction of Oura’s price. But I trust Oura, and that’s the power of the brand.

I remember researching GoPro stock after it got bombed out (down 80%). During our research, I found that GoPro was selling their cameras for $300-400, while Chinese-made, no-name replicas were sold on Amazon for $40. These replicas didn’t have GoPro’s brand, but they had tens of thousands of five-star (hard to fake) reviews on Amazon. GoPro may have been exceptional (loved by pros), and these no-name cameras were just okay, but they were 10 times cheaper.

I put GoPro stock into the “too hard” pile and moved on – thank God I did; after declining 80%, the stock fell another 80%.

This brings me back to the value of a brand. GoPro wasn’t worth 10x more to consumers than Chinese no-name alternatives. Can Oura command 10x pricing over its no-name competitors? I don’t know. That’s the beauty of investing – I don’t have to have an actionable opinion on everything. With time I have become very comfortable saying “I don’t know.” Investing is one of the few professions where you don’t have to have an answer for everything. “I don’t know” should be the default answer, unless you do know. Which isn’t that often.

Global Tech Showdown Korean companies are really dominating screen technology. LG and several other Korean companies showed off transparent, glass-like LCD screens at CES. Imagine sitting in your self-driving car, and your windows are both regular see-through glass and LCD screens at the same time. Our lives are slowly becoming what we used to see in sci-fi movies, and these screens are definitely a leap in that direction.

CES is a truly global show, with technology on display that spans every aspect of our future. There were a lot of companies from Asia (especially China). In certain pavilions focused on consumer or business hardware, China completely dominated the exhibits. There were quite a few large American companies and many American startups, mostly focused on software (though all their hardware was manufactured in Asia). America still dominates in software.

A few, mainly Chinese, companies were showcasing their humanoid robots. One robot was slowly but accurately moving and stacking boxes in a defined area. Others were roaming more freely and were good at avoiding objects. At this point, these robots have the IQ of a smart dog, an average cat (now cat lovers will love me), or Siri. I bet in a few years this will have changed.

I was only mildly surprised by how few European companies were at the show. It’s a very broad generalization, but Europe seems to be running on fumes of past glory. Western Europe has become a pro at regulation and mastered the redistribution of wealth (activities that don’t help innovation or economic growth), and not much else. Yes, there are exceptions, but that’s the point – they are exceptions. If Europe doesn’t change course, eventually it will run out of fumes.

The beauty of learning is that you don’t always know everything you’ve learned at the moment of learning. Often, you’re just depositing data points that will crystallize into insights at a much later date. I don’t know if CES will become an every-year tradition or something I do sporadically, but it’s definitely fertile ground for learning.

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MARCINKO & ASSOCIATES: Core Operating Values

Posted on February 22, 2025 by Dr. David Edward Marcinko MBA MEd CMP™

SPONSOR: http://www.MarcinkoAssociates.com

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By Dr. David Edward Marcinko MBA MEd

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D. E. Marcinko & Associates Core Operating Values

9.   We act with honesty, integrity and are always straightforward.
8.   We strive to be innovative, creative, iconoclastic, and flexible.
7.   We admit and learn from mistakes and don’t repeat them.
6.   We work hard always as competitors are trying to catch up.
5.   We treat others with dignity and respect.
4.   We are the onus of consulting advice for the well being of others.
3.   We fight complacency as former success is in the past.
2.   The best management styles are timeless, not timely.
1.   Our clients are colleagues and always come first.

EDUCATION: Books

SPEAKING: Dr. Marcinko will be speaking and lecturing, signing and opining, teaching and preaching, storming and performing at many locations throughout the USA this year! His tour of witty and serious pontifications may be scheduled on a planned or ad-hoc basis; for public or private meetings and gatherings; formally, informally, or over lunch or dinner. All medical societies, financial advisory firms or Broker-Dealers are encouraged to submit a RFP for speaking engagements: MarcinkoAdvisors@outlook.com 

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DAILY UPDATE: Markets Blast Off, Again!

Posted on January 23, 2025 by Dr. David Edward Marcinko MBA MEd CMP™

MEDICAL EXECUTIVE-POST – TODAY’S NEWSLETTER BRIEFING

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Essays, Opinions and Curated News in Health Economics, Investing, Business, Management and Financial Planning for Physician Entrepreneurs and their Savvy Advisors and Consultants

“Serving Almost One Million Doctors, Financial Advisors and Medical Management Consultants Daily“

A Partner of the Institute of Medical Business Advisors , Inc.

http://www.MedicalBusinessAdvisors.com

SPONSORED BY: Marcinko & Associates, Inc.

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http://www.MarcinkoAssociates.com

Daily Update Provided By Staff Reporters Since 2007.
How May We Serve You?
© Copyright Institute of Medical Business Advisors, Inc. All rights reserved. 2025

REFER A COLLEAGUE: MarcinkoAdvisors@outlook.com

SPONSORSHIPS AVAILABLE: https://medicalexecutivepost.com/sponsors/

ADVERTISE ON THE ME-P: https://tinyurl.com/ytb5955z

Your Referral Count -0-

CITE: https://www.r2library.com/Resource

Tech stocks led the market on Wednesday as Netflix (NFLX) stock surged to a record, while President Donald Trump’s boost to AI demand hopes outweighed fresh tariff worries.

The NASDAQ Composite (^IXIC) rose nearly 1.3%, bolstered by a jump in Netflix shares on the heels of surprisingly strong earnings. The S&P 500 (^GSPC) climbed more than 0.6% to close just shy of its record high of 6,090.

CITE: https://tinyurl.com/2h47urt5

Meanwhile, the Dow Jones Industrial Average (^DJI) was up 0.3%, coming off a rise of over 500 points on a winning Tuesday on Wall Street.

CITE: https://tinyurl.com/tj8smmes

Visualize: How private equity tangled banks in a web of debt, from the Financial Times.

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OPEN LETTER: MARCINKO Associates, Inc.

Posted on January 14, 2025 by Dr. David Edward Marcinko MBA MEd CMP™

MISSION STATEMENT

Open Letter from the CEO

Dr. David Edward Marcinko MBA CMP™

http://www.MarcinkoAssociates.com

ALL MEDICAL AND HEALTHCARE COLLEAGUES

Did you know that at MARCINKO & Associates, all medical colleagues throughout the United States may contact us when they are considering the sale, purchase, strategic operating improvement, merger, acquisition and/or other financial business or related personal financial planning transaction?

MORE: https://marcinkoassociates.com/welcome-medical-colleagues/

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Our difference is “hard” knowledge and insider financial guidance that helps medical colleagues, nurses, private practitioners, clinics, ambulatory surgery, radiology and outpatient wound care centers realize their ultimate economic goals. This typically includes managerial and cost accounting, financial ratio analysis, fair market valuation business appraisals, business plan creation and personal financial planning.

MORE: https://marcinkoassociates.com/fmv-appraisals/

Our “expert witness” business litigation support service and divorce mediation, arbitration, asset division, settlement and second opinion offerings are always available, as well.

MORE: https://marcinkoassociates.com/expert-witness/

And, our “soft” skill professional career guidance and mentoring center includes executive coaching, consulting and mentoring advisory programs for stressed, conflicted or burned-out physicians and medical practitioners.

COACHING: Careers

Most importantly, our professional fees are reasonable and always transparent.

MARCINKO & Associates also serves universities, medical, business, graduate and nursing schools; physicians, dentists, podiatrists, optometrists and legal societies. This includes accountants, financial service providers, wealth and hedge fund managers, emerging entities, hospitals, CEOs and their BODs, the press, media and related organizations.

MORE: https://marcinkoassociates.com/speaking-seminars/

Contact us for an educational white-paper on most any topic.

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Now, please review our website to learn more.

And, always retain us when needed.

How May We Serve You?

DAVID EDWARD MARCINKO

email: MarcinkoAdvisors@msn.com

© Copyright: Institute of Medical Business Advisors, Inc. All rights reserved, USA. Present to 2024.

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SECTOR ALLOCATION: Mutual Funds

Posted on December 25, 2024 by Dr. David Edward Marcinko MBA MEd CMP™

By Staff Reporters

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Sector allocation in an equity or fixed-income context refers to a portfolio managers’ decision to invest in a particular broad market sector or industry.

A sector allocation or breakdown can help an investor observe the investment allocations of a mutual or other fund. Fund companies regularly provide sector reporting in their marketing materials. Sector investing can influence investments in the fund. A fund may target a specific sector such as technology, or seek to diversify among many sectors.

Some funds may have restraints on sector investments. This may occur with environmental, social, and governance (ESG) focused funds. These funds seek to exclude industries or companies that their investors consider undesirable for various reasons such as tobacco producers or oil exploration companies.

The ultimate sector allocation decision is likely to combine macroeconomic views with judgments about inter-sector and intra-sector relative values, among other reasons.

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NOMINAL YIELD: Calculation

Posted on December 24, 2024 by Dr. David Edward Marcinko MBA MEd CMP™

DEFINED

By Staff Reporters

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Nominal yield, for most bonds and other fixed-income securities, is simply the yield you see listed online or in newspapers. Most nominal fixed-income yields include some extra yield, an “inflation premium,” that is typically priced/added into the yields to help offset the effects of inflation.

Real yields, such as those for TIPS, don’t have the inflation premium. As a result, nominal yields are typically higher than TIPS yields and other real yields.

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INVESTMENT PORTFOLIO: More on Year End Mutual Fund “Window Dressing”

Posted on December 23, 2024 by Dr. David Edward Marcinko MBA MEd CMP™

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By Steve Selengut

December values may not be what they seem

NOTE: Mr. Selengut is a private investor and a contributing editor to LIFE & Health Advisor. He is the author of the book ‘The Brainwashing of the American Investor: The book that Wall Street does not want you to read.’

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As [physician] investors, and we all are investors these days, it is important that we understand the idiosyncrasies of year-end Stock Market activity. On Wall Street, investing can be a minefield for those who don’t appreciate the non-economic, non-business-model, factors contributing to the market value numbers in fourth quarter brokerage account summaries.

Year end market values may not be what they seem ….

“Portfolio Window Dressing” (PWD) produces security pricing that is more a function of next year’s institutional marketing programs than a reflection of the economic forces that we would like to think are their primary determining factors. Not even close…

Toward the end of every calendar quarter, we hear the financial media report that “institutional PWD activities” are in full swing. But that is as deep as the stories ever go. What are they talking about, and just what does it mean to you as an investor?

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READ MORE: https://www.lifehealth.com/year-end-portfolio-window-dressing/

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e-BOOKS: For Doctors, Financial Advisors, CPAs, Insurance Agents, Medical Consultants and Health Law Attorneys

Posted on December 21, 2024 by Dr. David Edward Marcinko MBA MEd CMP™

By Ann Miller RN MHA CMP™

INTRODUCING OUR NEXT GENERATION e-BOOK LIBRARY FROM iMBA, Inc.

An e-book is an electronic or digital book that can be read on a computer or a handheld device.

Our new e-books consists of text, images, and are fixed to a specific spot on the page.

And, our e-books are a data files similar in content and structure to a word-processing document that comes in a PDF format. To use our e-books, you need to purchase and download it to a device that has a .pdf file reader app, such as ADOBE® or similar on a smartphone, tablet or computer. A PDF, also known as a portable document format, is the format most people are familiar with and used in our e-books. PDFs are known for their ease of use and ability to hold custom layouts. They are the most commonly used e-Book formats, especially by professionals and adult-learners.

You can then access the e-book and read it, or highlight pages and even take side notes.

e-Books Save Money

With no manufacturing, printing, binding or shipping costs, e-Books are cheaper than traditional hard or paper back books.The price of each specialized and highly niche focused e-Book [50-100 pages] is only $25, whereas similar paperback printed books of this type generally cost $145, or more!

Payable thru PayPal [3% courtesy surcharge applies].

MORE HERE: https://medicalexecutivepost.com/me-pr-a-new-feature/

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COMMODITIES: Futures and Intensity Types

Posted on December 16, 2024 by Dr. David Edward Marcinko MBA MEd CMP™

By Staff Reporters

SPONSOR: http://www.MarcinkoAssociates.com

DEFINITIONS

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Commodities: Commodities are raw materials or primary agricultural products that can be bought or sold on an exchange or market. Examples include grains such as corn, foods such as coffee, and metals such as copper.

Commodity Futures: Agreements to buy or sell a specific amount of a commodity or financial instrument at a particular price on a stipulated future date related to basic raw materials such as precious metals and natural resources.

Commodity Intensity: Commodity intensity refers to commodity usage per unit of economic growth. An emerging, more manufacturing-based economy will usually be more commodity intensive in terms of its growth than will a more developed, service-oriented economy.

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MARCINKO ASSOCIATES: Physician Wealth Advisors and Practice Management Consultants

Posted on December 11, 2024 by Dr. David Edward Marcinko MBA MEd CMP™

FIDUCIARY MEDICAL COLLEAGUES – FEE ONLY – NO PRODUCT OR SALES COMMISSIONS

SPONSOR: http://www.MarcinkoAssociates.com

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DEAR MEDICAL COLLEAGUES

Achieving your financial, wealth and medical practice management goals is important, but handling everything on your own can be overwhelming. That’s where we come in. At D. E. Marcinko & Associates, our team of dual degree experienced physician advisors and medical consultants is here to guide you every step of the way. We believe in providing unbiased, high-quality financial and business advice.

For example, we offer a one-time written financial plan with oral evaluation for a flat fee with no ongoing sales or assets under management fees or commissions. Together, we can create a personalized financial plan tailored to your unique goals, empowering you to make confident, informed decisions as you navigate your financial future.

Other Services Include:

  • Estate Planning We have a network of qualified legal professionals that we can refer you to for state specific estate planning needs.
  • Tax Strategy We can work alongside your CPA for tax planning purposes. If needed, we can refer you to a qualified tax professional.
  • Investment Analysis If you have investments, we review your accounts to make sure they are aligned with your long-term goals.
  • 401-k Allocations We evaluate your 401(k) allocations and provide recommendations that align with your goals.
  • Education Savings We help you explore the various ways to plan and save for education expenses.
  • Insurance & Risk Management We assess your insurance coverage to ensure it adequately protects you against potential risks; as well as evaluate and provide expert litigation witnesses, as needed.
  • Medical Practice Management We evaluate your current or potential medical practice to determine value and/or private equity offers or physician practice management formats [PPMC] for new, mid-career or retiring physicians, nurses and dentists.   

D. E. Marcinko & Associates is unique and fully committed to all phases of a medical professionals personal and business life cycle. We are at your service 24/7: Email MarcinkoAdvisors@outlook.com

ANN MILLER RN MHA CMP™

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Securities Industry and Financial Markets Association (SIFMA)

Posted on November 28, 2024 by Dr. David Edward Marcinko MBA MEd CMP™

CLOSINGS TODAY ON THANKSGIVING 2024

By Staff Reporters

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United States stock markets will be closed on Thursday, November 28th and will close early on Friday, November 29th in observance of the Thanksgiving Holiday.

The NASDAQ and NYSE will both be closed on Thanksgiving and will open on November 29th, but close early at 1 p.m. ET. The U.S. bond market will also be closed on Thursday and are scheduled to close at 2 p.m. ET on Friday, according to the The Securities Industry and Financial Markets Association (SIFMA)..

After closing for the Thanksgiving holiday, and closing early on Black Friday, it will be business as usual on Wall Street until late December. The next scheduled stock market closure is on Wednesday, December 25th in observance of Christmas. Markets are also scheduled to close early on Christmas Eve

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SALARY PRIME NUMBERS: Financial Success by Generation

Posted on November 27, 2024 by Dr. David Edward Marcinko MBA MEd CMP™

By Staff Reporters

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According to HVL from Morning Brew, a new survey from financial services company Empower ignited a conversation about what monetary success means. Turns out, it depends on who you ask. Boomers believe that success means having an annual salary of about $100,000. Gen Z thinks your mom can’t brag about you to her dentist until you earn $600k/year. On average, respondents said success is making $270,000 annually.

Additionally, less than 40% of respondents said they considered themselves financially successful. Almost 50% don’t believe they will achieve the level of success they desire.

But there was some good news: Forty-three percent said their idea of success didn’t depend on a specific sum of money. And almost 60% said happiness is most important, as long as happiness is defined as “being able to spend money on the things and experiences that bring the most joy.”

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STOCK POSITION SIZING: How to Construct Investment Portfolios That Protect You

Posted on November 18, 2024 by Dr. David Edward Marcinko MBA MEd CMP™

By Vitaliy Katsenelson CFA
For a while in the value investing community the number of positions you held was akin to bragging on your manhood– the fewer positions you owned the more macho an investor you were. 

I remember meeting two investors at a value conference. At the time they had both had “walk on water” streaks of returns. One had a seven-stock portfolio, the other held three stocks. Sadly, the financial crisis humbled both – the three-stock guy suffered irreparable losses and went out of business (losing most of his clients’ money). The other, after living through a few incredibly difficult years and an investor exodus, is running a more diversified portfolio today.

Under-diversification is dangerous, because a few mistakes or a visit from Bad Luck may prove to be fatal to the portfolio.

On the other extreme, you have a mutual fund industry where it is common to see portfolios with hundreds of stocks (I am generalizing). There are many reasons for that. Mutual funds have an army of analysts who need to be kept busy; their voices need to be heard; and thus their stock picks need to find their way into the portfolio (there are a lot of internal politics in this portfolio). 

These portfolios are run against benchmarks; thus their construction starts to resemble Noah’s Ark, bringing on board a few animals (stocks) from each industry. Also, the size of the fund may limit its ability to buy large positions in small companies.

There are several problems with this approach. First, and this is the important one, it breeds indifference: If a 0.5% position doubles or gets halved, it will have little impact on the portfolio. The second problem is that it is difficult to maintain research on all these positions. Yes, a mutual fund will have an army of analysts following each industry, but the portfolio manager is the one making the final buy and sell decisions. Third, the 75th idea is probably not as good as the 30th, especially in an overvalued market where good ideas are scarce.

Then you have index funds. On the surface they are over-diversified, but they don’t suffer from the over-diversification headaches of managed funds. In fact, index funds are both over-diversified and under-diversified. Let’s take the S&P 500 – the most popular of the bunch. It owns the 500 largest companies in the US. You’d think it was a diversified portfolio, right? Well, kind of. The top eight companies account for more than 25% of the index. Also, the construction of the index favors stocks that are usually more expensive or that have recently appreciated (it is market-cap-weighted); thus you are “diversified” across a lot of overvalued stocks.

If you own hundreds of securities that are exposed to the same idiosyncratic risk, then are you really diversified?

Our portfolio construction process is built from a first-principles perspective. If a Martian visited Earth and decided to try his hand at value investing, knowing nothing about common (usually academic) conventions, how would he construct a portfolio?

We want to have a portfolio where we own not too many stocks, so that every decision we make matters – we have both skin and soul in the game in each decision. But we don’t want to own so few that a small number of stocks slipping on a banana will send us into financial ruin.

In our portfolio construction, we are trying to maximize both our IQ and our EQ (emotional quotient). Too few stocks will decapitate our EQ – we won’t be able to sleep well at night, as the relatively large impact of a low-probability risk could have a devastating impact on the portfolio. I wrote about the importance of good sleep before (link here). It’s something we take seriously at IMA.

Holding too many stocks will result in both a low EQ and low IQ. It is very difficult to follow and understand the drivers of the business of hundreds of stocks, therefore a low IQ about individual positions will eventually lead to lower portfolio EQ. When things turn bad, a constant in investing, you won’t intimately know your portfolio – you’ll be surrounded by a lot of (tiny-position) strangers.

Portfolio construction is a very intimate process. It is unique to one’s EQ and IQ. Our typical portfolios have 20–30 stocks. Our “focused” portfolios have 12–15 stocks (they are designed for clients where we represent only a small part of their total wealth). There is nothing magical about these numbers – they are just the Goldilocks levels for us, for our team and our clients. They allow room for bad luck, but at the same time every decision we make matters.

Now let’s discuss position sizing. We determine position sizing through a well-defined quantitative process. The goals of this process are to achieve the following: Shift the portfolio towards higher-quality companies with higher returns. Take emotion out of the portfolio construction process. And finally, insure healthy diversification.

Our research process is very qualitative: We read annual reports, talk to competitors and ex-employees, build financial models, and debate stocks among ourselves and our research network. In our valuation analysis we try to kill the business – come up with worst-case fair value (where a company slips on multiple bananas) and reasonable fair value. 

We also assign a quality rating to each company in the portfolio. Quality is absolute for us – we don’t allow low-quality companies in, no matter how attractive the valuation is (though that doesn’t mean we don’t occasionally misjudge a company’s quality).

The same company, at different stock prices, will merit a higher or lower position size. In other words, if company A is worth (fair value) $100, at $60 it will be a 3% position and at $40 it will be a 5% position. Company B, of a lower quality than A but also worth $100, will be a 2% position at $60 and a 4% position at $40 (I just made up these numbers for illustration purposes). 

In other words, if there are two companies that have similar expected returns, but one is of higher quality than the other, our system will automatically allocate a larger percentage of the portfolio to the higher-quality company. If you repeat this exercise on a large number of stocks, you cannot but help to shift your portfolio to higher-quality, higher-return stocks. It’s a system of meritocracy where we marry quality and return.

Let’s talk about diversification. We don’t go out of our way to diversify the portfolio. At least, not in a traditional sense. We are not going to allocate 7% to mining stocks because that is the allocation in the index or they are negatively correlated to soft drink companies. (We don’t own either and are not sure if the above statement is even true, but you get the point.) 

We try to assemble a portfolio of high-quality companies that are attractively priced, whose businesses march to different drummers and are not impacted by the same risks. Just as bank robbers rob banks because that is where the money is, value investors gravitate towards sectors where the value is. To keep our excitement (our emotions) in check, and to make sure we are not overexposed to a single industry, we set hard limits of industry exposure. These limits range from 10%–20%. We also set limits of country exposure, ranging from 7%–30% (ex-US).

In portfolio construction, our goal is not to limit the volatility of the portfolio but to reduce true risk – the permanent loss of capital. We are constantly thinking about the types of risks we are taking. Do we have too much exposure to a weaker or stronger dollar? To higher or lower interest rates? Do we have too much exposure to federal government spending? I know, risk is a four-letter word that has lost its meaning. But not to us. Low interest rates may have time-shifted risk into the future, but they haven’t cured it.

READ: Position Sizing: How to Construct Portfolios That Protect You

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DAILY UPDATE: Healthcare Private Equity Prominent as Stocks Go Down

Posted on November 15, 2024 by Dr. David Edward Marcinko MBA MEd CMP™

MEDICAL EXECUTIVE-POST – TODAY’S NEWSLETTER BRIEFING

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Essays, Opinions and Curated News in Health Economics, Investing, Business, Management and Financial Planning for Physician Entrepreneurs and their Savvy Advisors and Consultants

“Serving Almost One Million Doctors, Financial Advisors and Medical Management Consultants Daily“

A Partner of the Institute of Medical Business Advisors , Inc.

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SPONSORED BY: Marcinko & Associates, Inc.

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Daily Update Provided By Staff Reporters Since 2007.
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Private equity (PE) dollars have become prominent in the US healthcare industry in recent decades, with PE firms now owning roughly 8% of all private hospitals in the country, according to nonprofit Private Equity Stakeholder Project. But studies have illustrated the financial model’s potential adverse effects, such one published in JAMA in December 2023 that found PE-owned hospitals are 25.4% more likely to report patient complications. Others have found that PE-owned healthcare companies represented more than one-fifth of healthcare company bankruptcies in 2023 and that PE-owned hospitals see their assets drop an average of 24% following an acquisition.

CITE: https://www.r2library.com/Resource

STOCKS UP

Tapestry, parent company of luxury brands like Coach and Kate Spade, and Capri, parent company of luxury brands like Versace and Jimmy Choo, have announced they will mutually terminate their planned merger. Tapestry popped 12.80%, while Capri rose 4.43%.

  • Speaking of luxury brands, Burberry soared 18.04% after its CEO announced a turnaround plan designed to halt the company’s recent decline.
  • Semiconductor maker ASML plummeted last month on a profit warning, but rose 2.90% today on reassurances that it’s still on track to meet its 2030 revenue forecasts.

STOCKS DOWN

  • Super Micro Computer fell yet another 11.41% as it nears the November 16 deadline to report fiscal year earnings or be delisted from the Nasdaq.
  • Trump Media & Technology Group dropped 6.71% as investors digested news that company insiders are shedding shares, as well as in reaction to a number of President-elect Trump’s cabinet appointments.
  • Hims & Hers Health tumbled 24.46% on the news that Amazon is getting into the telehealth game, offering Prime members fixed prices on treatments for hair loss and erectile dysfunction.
  • Ibotta is a cashback rewards company, but its shareholders may want their cash back. The company beat on top and bottom line estimates last quarter, but the win wasn’t good enough, and shares sank 12.55%.

CITE: https://tinyurl.com/2h47urt5

Here’s where the major benchmarks ended:

  • The S&P 500® index (SPX) fell 36.21 points (–0.60%) to 5,949.17; the Dow Jones Industrial Average® ($DJI) lost 207.33 points (–0.47%) to 43,750.86; and the NASDAQ Composite® ($COMP) dropped 123.07 points (–0.64%) to 19,107.65. 
  • The 10-year Treasury note yield fell three basis points to 4.42%.
  • The CBOE Volatility Index® (VIX) edged up to 14.17.

CITE: https://tinyurl.com/tj8smmes

Visualize: How private equity tangled banks in a web of debt, from the Financial Times.

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BONDS: Zero Coupon [Pros & Cons]

Posted on November 12, 2024 by Dr. David Edward Marcinko MBA MEd CMP™

DEFINITIONS

By Staff Reporters

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Zero-coupon securities (aka zeros) are debt securities [bonds] that, unlike most of their debt security counterparts, make no periodic interest payments to investors. Instead, they are sold at a deep discount (with an imputed interest rate priced into the discount), then redeemed for their full face value at maturity.

CITE: https://www.r2library.com/Resource/Title/0826102549

When held to maturity, a zero’s entire return comes from the difference between its purchase price and its value at maturity.

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INVESTING NEWS: Stocks, Bonds, Oil, Gold, Bitcoin and Sectors Review Post Election

Posted on November 7, 2024 by Dr. David Edward Marcinko MBA MEd CMP™

By Staff Reporters

SPONSOR: http://www.MarcinkoAssociates.com

BREAKING NEWS!

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  • Stocks surged and stayed higher all yesterday day on news of Donald Trump’s presidential victory. The Dow rocketed over 1,350 points as soon as markets opened, and all three indexes ended the day at record highs.
  • Treasury yields have paralleled Trump’s chances of taking the White House for the last few weeks, and his election sent them soaring to over 4.46% at one point today.
  • Oil and gold both fell as the dollar rose after Trump’s win. The greenback popped on the promise of Trump’s protectionist tariff policies and the lower likelihood of the Fed cutting interest rates as fast as previously expected.
  • Bitcoin surged as traders celebrated the beginning of the new, friendlier regulatory environment that Trump promised during his campaign.

CITE: https://www.r2library.com/Resource/Title/0826102549

Sector check-up

  • Financials were the biggest sector mover Wednesday, up 6.16%, hitting a new high.
  • Industrials were up 3.93% Wednesday, hitting a new high.
  • Energy was up 3.54% in the session. It’s now 4.28% from the April high.
  • Real Estate fell 2.64% during trading. It’s now 5.6% from the high. 
  • Consumer Staples fell 1.5%. The sector is 5.76% from the September high.
  • Utilities fell 1%. It’s now 5.72% from the mid-October high.
  • Duke Energy was flat over the past three months, and it is 6.3% from the October high.

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ECONOMICS: John B. Taylor’s Rule

Posted on November 4, 2024 by Dr. David Edward Marcinko MBA MEd CMP™

By Dr. David Edward Marcinko MBA MEd

SPONSOR: http://www.MarcinkoAssociates.com

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Named for a U.S. economist, the JB Taylor Rule is a mathematical monetary-policy formula that recommends how much a central bank should change its nominal short-term interest rate target (such as the U.S. Federal Reserve’s federal funds rate target) in response to changes in economic conditions, particularly inflation and economic growth. It’s typically viewed as guideline for raising short-term interest rates as inflation and potentially inflationary pressures increase. The rule recommends a relatively high interest rate (“tight” monetary policy) when inflation is above its target or when the economy is above its full employment level, and a relatively low interest rate (“easy” monetary policy) under the opposite conditions.

To illustrate, the monetary policy of the FOMC, changed throughout the 20th century. The period between the 1960s and the 1970s is evaluated by Taylor and others as a period of poor monetary policy; the later years typically characterized as stagflation. The inflation rate was high and increasing, while interest rates were kept low. Since the mid-1970s monetary targets have been used in many countries as a means to target inflation.

However, in the 2000s the actual interest rate in advanced economics, notably in the US, was kept below the value suggested by the Taylor rule.

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