FINANCIAL ADVISORS: Real Monetary Worth?

Posted on March 18, 2025 by Dr. David Edward Marcinko MBA MEd CMP™

BY DR. DAVID EDWARD MARCINKO; MBA MEd CMP®

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SO – HOW MUCH IS A “FINANCIAL ADVISOR” REALLY WORTH?

This blog holds a rather uncomplimentary opinion of financial advisors, and the financial services and brokerage industry as a whole; deserved, or not? The entire site hints at this attitude as well, in favor of a going it alone or ME, Inc investing when possible. Nevertheless, it is reasonable to wonder how much boost in net-returns might an educated and informed, fee transparent and honest, fiduciary focused “financial advisor” add to a clients’ investment portfolio; all things being equal [ceteris paribus].

And, can it be quantified?

Well, according to Vanguard Brokerage Services®, perhaps as much as 3%? In a decade long paper from the Valley Forge, PA based mutual fund and ETF giant, Vanguard said financial advisors can generate returns through a framework focused on five wealth management principles:

• Being an effective behavioral coach: Helping clients maintain a long-term perspective and a disciplined approach is arguably one of the most important elements of financial advice. (Potential value added: up to 1.50%).

• Applying an asset location strategy: The allocation of assets between taxable and tax-advantaged accounts is one tool an advisor can employ that can add value each year. (Potential value added: from 0% to 0.75%).

• Employing cost-effective investments: This component of every advisor’s tool kit is based on simple math: Gross return less costs equals net return. (Potential value added: up to 0.45%).

• Maintaining the proper allocation through rebalancing: Over time, as investments produce various returns, a portfolio will likely drift from its target allocation. An advisor can add value by ensuring the portfolio’s risk/return characteristics stay consistent with a client’s preferences. (Potential value added: up to 0.35%).

• Implementing a spending strategy: As the retiree population grows, an advisor can help clients make important decisions about how to spend from their portfolios. (Potential value added: up to 0.70%).

Source: Financial Advisor Magazine, page 20, April 2014.

Assessment

However, Vanguard notes that while it’s possible all of these principles could add up to 3% in net returns for clients, it’s more likely to be an intermittent number than an annual one because some of the best opportunities to add value happen during extreme market lows and highs when angst or giddiness [fear and greed] can cause investors to bail on their well-thought-out investment plans.

And, is the study applicable to doctors and allied healthcare providers? Doe Vanguard have a vested interest in the topic. What about fee based versus fee-only financial advice?

Conclusion

Finally, recognize the plethora of other financial planning life-cycle topics addressed in this ME-P were not included in the Vanguard investment portfolio-only study a decade ago. 

And what about today with contemporaneous internet advising, chat-rooms, linkedin, robo-advisors, reddit and the like?

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STRADDLES: Offsetting Personal Property Positions and Stock

Posted on March 13, 2025 by Dr. David Edward Marcinko MBA MEd CMP™

By Staff Reporters and IRS

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Straddles: A straddle is any set of offsetting positions on personal property. For example, a straddle may consist of a purchased option to buy and a purchased option to sell on the same number of shares of the security, with the same exercise price and period.

Personal property.

This is any actively traded property. It includes stock options and contracts to buy stock but generally does not include stock.

Straddle rules for stock.

Although stock is generally excluded from the definition of personal property when applying the straddle rules, it is included in the following two situations.

  1. The stock is of a type that is actively traded, and at least one of the offsetting positions is a position on that stock or substantially similar or related property.
  2. The stock is in a corporation formed or availed of to take positions in personal property that offset positions taken by any shareholder.

Note

For positions established before October 22, 2004, condition 1 above does not apply. Instead, personal property includes stock if condition 2 above applies or the stock was part of a straddle in which at least one of the offsetting positions was:

  • An option to buy or sell the stock or substantially identical stock or securities,
  • A securities futures contract on the stock or substantially identical stock or securities, or
  • A position on substantially similar or related property (other than stock).

Position

A position is an interest in personal property. A position can be a forward or futures contract or an option.

An interest in a loan denominated in a foreign currency is treated as a position in that currency. For the straddle rules, foreign currency for which there is an active inter bank market is considered to be actively traded personal property.

Offsetting position

This is a position that substantially reduces any risk of loss you may have from holding another position. However, if a position is part of a straddle that is not an identified straddle, do not treat it as offsetting to a position that is part of an identified straddle.

Presumed offsetting positions

Two or more positions will be presumed to be offsetting if:

  • The positions are established in the same personal property (or in a contract for this property), and the value of one or more positions varies inversely with the value of one or more of the other positions;
  • The positions are in the same personal property, even if this property is in a substantially changed form, and the positions’ values vary inversely as described in the first condition;
  • The positions are in debt instruments with a similar maturity, and the positions’ values vary inversely as described in the first condition;
  • The positions are sold or marketed as offsetting positions, whether or not the positions are called a straddle, spread, butterfly, or any similar name; or
  • The aggregate margin requirement for the positions is lower than the sum of the margin requirements for each position if held separately.

Related persons

To determine if two or more positions are offsetting, you will be treated as holding any position your spouse holds during the same period. If you take into account part or all of the gain or loss for a position held by a flow-through entity, such as a partnership or trust, you are also considered to hold that position.

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STUPID COMMENTS: Financial Advisors Say to Physician Clients

Posted on March 12, 2025 by Dr. David Edward Marcinko MBA MEd CMP™

BY DR. DAVID EDWARD MARCINKO; MBA MEd CMP®

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SPONSOR: http://www.MarcinkoAssociates.com

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Some Stupid Things Financial Advisors Say to Physician Clients

A few years ago and just for giggles, colleague Lon Jefferies MBA CFP® and I collected a list of dumb-stupid things said by some Financial Advisors to their doctor, dentist, nurse and and other medical professional clients, along with some recommended under-breath rejoinders:

  • “They don’t have any debt except for a mortgage and student loans.” OK. And I’m vegan except for bacon-wrapped steak.
  • “Earnings were positive before one-time charges.” This is Wall Street’s equivalent of, “Other than that Mrs. Lincoln; how was the play?”
  • “Earnings missed estimates.” No. Earnings don’t miss estimates; estimates miss earnings. No one ever says “the weather missed estimates.” They blame the weatherman for getting it wrong. Finance is the only industry where people blame their poor forecasting skills on reality. 
  • “Earnings met expectations, but analysts were looking for a beat.” If you’re expecting earnings to beat expectations, you don’t know what the word “expectations” means.
  • “It’s a Ponzi scheme.” The number of things called Ponzi schemes that are actually Ponzi schemes rounds to zero. It’s become a synonym for “thing I disagree with.” 
  • “The [thing not going perfectly] crisis.” Boy who cried wolf, meet analyst who called crisis. 
  • “He predicted the market crash in 2008.” He also predicted a crash in 2006, 2004, 2003, 2001, 1998, 1997, 1995, 1992, 1989, 1984, 1971…
  • “More buyers than sellers.” This is the equivalent of saying someone has more mothers than fathers. There’s one buyer and one seller for every trade. Every single one.
  • “Stocks suffer their biggest drop since September.” You know September was only six weeks ago, right? 
  • “We’re cautiously optimistic.” You’re also an oxymoron. 
  • [Guy on TV]: “It’s time to [buy/sell] stocks.” Who is this advice for? A 20-year-old with 60 years of investing in front of him, or a 82-year-old widow who needs money for a nursing home? Doesn’t that make a difference?
  • “We’re neutral on this stock.” Stop it. You don’t deserve a paycheck for that.
  • “There’s minimal downside on this stock.” Some lessons have to be learned the hard way.
  • “We’re trying to maximize returns and minimize risks.” Unlike everyone else, who are just dying to set their money ablaze!
  • “Shares fell after the company lowered guidance.” Guys, they just proved their guidance can be wrong. Why are you taking this new one seriously? 
  • “Our bullish case is conservative.” Then it’s not a bullish case. It’s a conservative case. Those words mean opposite things.
  • “We look where others don’t.” This is said by so many investors that it has to be untrue most of the time. 
  • “Is [X] the next black swan?” Nassim Taleb’s blood pressure rises every time someone says this. You can’t predict black swans. That’s what makes them dangerous.
  • “We’re waiting for more certainty.” Good call. Like in 1929, 1999 and 2007, when everyone knew exactly what the future looked like. Can’t wait!
  • “The Dow is down 50 points as investors react to news of [X].” Stop it – you’re just making stuff up. “Stocks are down and no one knows why” is the only honest headline in this category. 
  • “Investment guru [insert name] says stocks are [insert forecast].” Go to Morningstar.com. Look up that guru’s track record against their benchmark. More often than not, their career performance lags an index fund. Stop calling them gurus.
  • “We’re constructive on the market.” I have no idea what that means. I don’t think you do, either.
  • “[Noun] [verb] bubble.” (That’s a sarcastic observation from investor Eddy Elfenbein.) 
  • “Investors are fleeing the market.” Every stock is owned by someone all the time. 
  • “We expect more volatility.” There has never been a time when this was not the case. Let me guess, you also expect more winters? 
  • “This is a strong buy.” What do I do with this? Click the mouse harder when placing the order in my brokerage account?
  • “He was tired of throwing his money away renting, so he bought a house.” He knows a mortgage is renting money from a bank, right?
  • “This is a cyclical bull market in a secular bear.” Vapid nonsense.  
  • “Will Obamacare ruin the economy?” No. And get a grip. 

So, don’t let these aphorisms blind you to the critical thinking skills you learned in college, honed in medical school and apply every day in life.

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EDUCATION: Books

SPEAKING: Dr. Marcinko will be speaking and lecturing, signing and opining, teaching and preaching, storming and performing at many locations throughout the USA this year! His tour of witty and serious pontifications may be scheduled on a planned or ad-hoc basis; for public or private meetings and gatherings; formally, informally, or over lunch or dinner. All medical societies, financial advisory firms or Broker-Dealers are encouraged to submit a RFP for speaking engagements: CONTACT: MarcinkoAdvisors@outlook.com 

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DAILY UPDATE: Mayo Clinic Operating Margin Up as Domestic Stocks Crushed Down!

Posted on March 11, 2025 by Dr. David Edward Marcinko MBA MEd CMP™

MEDICAL EXECUTIVE-POST – TODAY’S NEWSLETTER BRIEFING

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Essays, Opinions and Curated News in Health Economics, Investing, Business, Management and Financial Planning for Physician Entrepreneurs and their Savvy Advisors and Consultants

“Serving Almost One Million Doctors, Financial Advisors and Medical Management Consultants Daily“

A Partner of the Institute of Medical Business Advisors , Inc.

http://www.MedicalBusinessAdvisors.com

SPONSORED BY: Marcinko & Associates, Inc.

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Daily Update Provided By Staff Reporters Since 2007.
How May We Serve You?
© Copyright Institute of Medical Business Advisors, Inc. All rights reserved. 2025

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Stat: 6.5%. That was the size of Mayo Clinic’s operating margin in 2024, with an operating income of $1.3 billion. (Becker’s Hospital CFO Report)

CITE: https://tinyurl.com/2h47urt5

US stocks plunged on Monday as investors processed growing concerns about the health of the US economy after President Trump and his top economic officials acknowledged the possibility of a potential rough patch.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average (^DJI) fell nearly 900 points, or over 2%, while the benchmark S&P 500 (^GSPC) dropped around 2.7% after the index posted its worst week since September. The tech-heavy NASDAQ Composite (^IXIC) fell 4% in its worst day since 2022, as the “Magnificent Seven” stocks led the sell-off. Tesla’s (TSLA) rout continued, plunging 15% and officially wiping out the gains it had made in the wake of Trump’s election win. Nvidia (NVDA), Apple (AAPL), Google parent Alphabet (GOOG), and Meta (META) all each lost more than 4%.

Key inflation data includes the Consumer Price Index (CPI) and Producer Price Index (PPI) on Wednesday and Thursday could help set the tone, though economic growth concerns seem to have replaced inflation as the prime concern. The S&P 500 index (SPX) dropped more than 3% last week, the worst performance since September.

However, the U.S. economy “is in a good place” despite recent policy uncertainty, Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell said Friday. He sees no need to hurry rate cuts until there’s more policy clarity, Bloomberg reported. Stocks rallied on Powell’s words late Friday, but Monday’s early action indicates that rallies continue being sold, and the Cboe Volatility Index (VIX) rose above 26 as investors piled into risk-off assets like bonds. The 200-day moving average of 5,734 for the SPX remains a key technical support area, and the SPX was on pace to open below that Monday, now more than 6% off of all-time highs but not yet in –10% correction territory.

CITE: https://tinyurl.com/tj8smmes

Visualize: How private equity tangled banks in a web of debt, from the Financial Times.

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How to Invest When There’s Nowhere to Hide

Posted on March 10, 2025 by Dr. David Edward Marcinko MBA MEd CMP™

By Vitaliy Katsenelson; CFA

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How to Invest When There’s Nowhere to Hide
I was having lunch with a close friend of mine. He mentioned that he had accumulated a significant sum of money and did not know what to do with it. It was sitting in bonds, and inflation was eating its purchasing power at a very rapid rate.

He is a dentist and had originally thought about expanding his business, but a shortage of labor and surging wages turned expanding into a risky and low-return investment. He complained that the stock market was extremely expensive. I agreed.*

He said that the only thing left was residential real estate. I pushed back. “What do you think will happen to the affordability of houses if – and most likely when – interest rates go up? Inflation is now 6%. I don’t know where it will be in a year or two, but what if it becomes a staple of the economy? Interest rates will not be where they are today. Even at 5% interest rates [I know, a number unimaginable today] houses become unaffordable to a significant portion of the population. Yes, borrowers’ incomes will be higher in nominal terms, but the impact of the doubling of interest rates on the cost of mortgages will be devastating to affordability.”

He rejoined, “But look at what happened to housing over the last twenty years. Housing prices have consistently increased, even despite the financial crisis.”

I agreed, but I qualified his statement: “Over the past twenty, actually thirty, years interest rates declined. I honestly don’t know where interest rates will be in the future. But probabilistically, knowing what we know now, the chances that they are going to be higher, much higher, are more likely than their staying low. Especially if you think that inflation will persist.”

We quickly shifted our conversation toward more meaningful topics, like kids.

It seems that every year I think we have finally reached the peak of crazy, only to be proven wrong the next year. The stock market and thus index funds, just like real estate, have only gone one way – up. Index funds became the blunt instrument of choice in an always-rising market. So far, this choice has paid off nicely.

The market is the most expensive it has ever been, and thus future returns of the market and index funds will be unexciting. (I am being gentle here.)

You don’t have to be a stock market junkie to notice the pervasive feeling of euphoria. But euphoria is a temporary, not a permanent emotion; and at least when it comes to the stock market, it is usually supplanted by despair. Market appreciation that was driven by expanding valuations was not a gift but a loan – the type of loan that must always be paid back with a high rate of interest.

I don’t know what straw will break the feeble back of this market or what will cause the music to stop (there, you got two analogies for the price of none). We are in an environment where there are very few good options. If you do nothing, your savings will be eaten away by inflation. If you do something, you find that most assets, including the stock market as a whole, are incredibly overvalued.

This is why what we do at IMA is so important.

We are doing the only sensible thing that you can do today. We spend very little time thinking about straws or what will cause the music to stop or how overvalued the market is. We are focusing all our energy on patiently building a portfolio of high-quality, cash-generative, significantly undervalued businesses that have pricing power.

This has admittedly been less rewarding than taking risky bets on unimaginably expensive assets. It may lack the excitement of sinking money into the darlings you see in the news every day, but we hope that our stocks will look like rare gems when the euphoria condenses into despair. As we keep repeating in every letter, the market is insanely overvalued. Our portfolio is anything but – we don’t own “the market”.

*A question may arise: Why did I not tell my dentist friend to pick individual stocks? He runs a busy dental practice and wouldn’t have the time or the training to pick stocks.

Why didn’t I offer him our services? IMA manages all my and my family’s liquid assets, but I have a rule that I never (ever!) break – I don’t manage my friends’ money. I’ll help them as much as possible with free advice but will never have a professional relationship with them. I intentionally create a separation between my personal and professional lives. After a difficult day in the market, I want to be able to go for beers with friends and leave the market at the office.

Also, this simplifies my relationships with my friends. There is no ambiguity in our friendship.

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DAILY UPDATE: Walgreens Boots Private Equity, Medical Cost Debt as Stock Markets Stabilize

Posted on March 8, 2025 by Dr. David Edward Marcinko MBA MEd CMP™

MEDICAL EXECUTIVE-POST – TODAY’S NEWSLETTER BRIEFING

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Essays, Opinions and Curated News in Health Economics, Investing, Business, Management and Financial Planning for Physician Entrepreneurs and their Savvy Advisors and Consultants

“Serving Almost One Million Doctors, Financial Advisors and Medical Management Consultants Daily“

A Partner of the Institute of Medical Business Advisors , Inc.

http://www.MedicalBusinessAdvisors.com

SPONSORED BY: Marcinko & Associates, Inc.

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http://www.MarcinkoAssociates.com

Daily Update Provided By Staff Reporters Since 2007.
How May We Serve You?
© Copyright Institute of Medical Business Advisors, Inc. All rights reserved. 2025

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Walgreens Boots Alliance says it has agreed to be acquired by private equity firm Sycamore Partners as the struggling retailer looks to turn itself around after years of losing money. Walgreens said Thursday that Sycamore will pay $11.45 per share, giving the deal an equity value just under $10 billion. Shareholders could eventually receive up to an

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Stocks

  • The S&P 500 rose 0.6%
  • The NASDAQ 100 rose 0.7%
  • The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 0.5%
  • The MSCI World Index rose 0.2%
  • Bloomberg Magnificent 7 Total Return Index rose 0.2%
  • The Russell 2000 Index rose 0.4%

Currencies

  • The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index fell 0.2%
  • The euro rose 0.6% to $1.0851
  • The British pound rose 0.4% to $1.2929
  • The Japanese yen was little changed at 147.89 per dollar

Cryptocurrencies

  • Bitcoin fell 4% to $86,226.2
  • Ether fell 3.8% to $2,129.51

Bonds

  • The yield on 10-year Treasuries advanced two basis points to 4.30%
  • Germany’s 10-year yield was little changed at 2.84%
  • Britain’s 10-year yield declined two basis points to 4.64%

CITE: https://tinyurl.com/tj8smmes

Stat: 20%. That’s how many US residents under age 49 have borrowed money to cover medical costs. (West Health and Gallup)

Visualize: How private equity tangled banks in a web of debt, from the Financial Times.

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IPO: Road Show with Pros and Cons

Posted on March 2, 2025 by Dr. David Edward Marcinko MBA MEd CMP™

By Staff Reporters

SPONSOR: http://www.MarcinkoAssociates.com

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What Is a Roadshow?

In general, a roadshow is a series of meetings or presentations in which key members of a private company, usually executives, pitch the initial public offering, or IPO, to prospective investors. Effectively, the company is taking its branding message on the road to meet with investors in different cities, hence the name.

The IPO roadshow presentation is an important part of the IPO process in which a company sells new shares to the public for the first time. Whether a company’s IPO succeeds or not can hinge on interest generated among investors before the stock makes its debut on an exchange.

There are also some cases where company executives will embark on a road show to meet with investors to talk about their company, even if they’re not planning an IPO.

Pros and Cons of a Roadshow

According to Rebecca Lake, if the company goes public and no one buys its shares, then the IPO ends up being a flop, which can affect the company’s success in the near and long term. If the company experiences an IPO pop, in which its price goes much higher than its initial offering price, it could be a sign that underwriters mispriced the stock.

A roadshow is also important for helping determine how to price the company’s stock when the IPO launches. If the roadshow ends up being a smashing success, for example, that can cause the underwriters to adjust their expectations for the stock’s IPO price.

On the other hand, if the roadshow doesn’t seem to be generating much buzz around the company at all, that could cause the price to be adjusted downward.

In a worst-case scenario, the company may decide to pull the plug on the IPO altogether or to go a different route, such as a private IPO placement.

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STOCK DIVIDENDS: Company Earnings Distribution

Posted on March 2, 2025 by Dr. David Edward Marcinko MBA MEd CMP™

BY DR. DAVID EDWARD MARCINKO; MBA MEd CMP™

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SPONSOR: http://www.MarcinkoAssociates.com

DEFINITION

If the definition of a security is title to a stream of cash flows, then the dividends a company is expected to pay to equity shareholders on a periodic basis (e.g., quarterly) are a clear source of return for an investor.  A dividend is simply a distribution of (some portion of) the company’s earnings to equity shareholders.  Like a bond yield, a stock’s dividend yield can be used to measure the income return on the stock. 

To determine a stock’s dividend yield, the trailing year’s dividends per share paid are divided by the current stock price.  However, a key difference between a dividend yield and a bond yield is the level of certainty that can be assumed regarding future payments, since a bond’s coupon is generally predetermined and its payment is expected to be senior to the payment of dividends.

After a company has determined that it has earned a profit, management has to decide what to do with those profits.  One choice is to distribute the earnings to shareholders in the form of dividends, while another option is to reinvest the profits in the company.  A company’s management may determine that the shareholders interest is best served by using the earnings to pursue growth opportunities (e.g., capital expansion, research & development, etc.) at the corporate level.  Thus, when management believes that its investment opportunities are likely to produce a higher return than what investors’ could generate with their dividends or that reinvestment is needed to maintain its financial strength, the company will retain the earnings. 

One of the biggest myths in investing is capital appreciation accounts for the largest part of investors’ gains. Dividends, or cash payments to shareholders, actually account for a substantial part of an equity investor’s total return. In fact since 1926, dividends have accounted for more than 40% of the total return of the S&P 500 stock index. In the last decade (2000-2009), the S&P 500’s total return of -9% would have been a heftier loss of -24% had it not been for the 15% contribution from dividends.

History has shown that dividends have been a powerful source of total return in a diversified investment portfolio, especially during periods of market turbulence. In examining the prior eight decades of stock market performance, dividends often account for more than 2/3 of the total return (1930s, 1940s, 1970s, & 2000s).  If an investor avoided dividend paying stocks during these elongated time periods, most of the total gains would be lost. 

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DIVIDEND CONTRIBUTION OF S&P 500 RETURN BY DECADE   
 S&P 500 CumulativeDividendsAverage 
 Price %DividendTotal% of TotalPayout 
YearsChangeContribution*ReturnReturnRatio** 
       
1930s-41.9%56.0%14.1%>100%90.1% 
1940s34.8%100.3%135.0%74.3%59.4% 
1950s256.7%180.0%436.7%41.2%54.6% 
1960s53.7%54.2%107.9%50.2%56.0% 
1970s17.2%59.1%76.4%77.4%45.5% 
1980s227.4%143.1%370.5%38.6%48.6% 
1990s315.7%117.1%432.8%27.0%47.6% 
2000s-24.1%15.0%-9.1%>100%35.3% 
2010s27.9%8.4%36.3%23.1%28.4% 
as of 12/31/12      

Source: Strategas

During those decades such as the 2000s where the stock market struggled to advance, dividends were a significant element for investor survival.  This is not only due to the dividends alone, but also the risk element of stocks that pay dividends.  Dividend stocks have historically provided lower overall volatility and stronger downside protection when markets decline. Since 1927, dividend stocks have consistently held up better than the broader market during downturns. You can measure downside risk through a statistic known as downside capture ratio.

Downside capture ratio is a statistical measure of overall performance in a down stock market. An investment category, or investment manager, who has a down-market ratio less than 100 has outperformed the index during a falling stock market. 

For example, a down-market capture ratio of 80 indicates that the portfolio measure declined only 80% as much as the index during the period. The downside capture ratio of high-dividend-yielding stocks, since 1927, has been 81% or lower over various long-term periods.  Put a better way, during months that the S&P 500 stock index fell, dividend stocks declined by nearly 19% less than the broader market.

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DOWNSIDE AND UPSIDE CAPTURE RATIOS OF HIGH DIVIDEND STOCKS – 1927 TO 2011  
The lower the number, the better    
                                                                            Downside 
                                                                              Capture Ratio 
   
Since 192781.53 
50-year67.45 
30-year65.86 
20-year65.83 
10-year81.61 
   

Source: Kenneth French as of 12/31/11

EDUCATION: Books

SPEAKING: Dr. Marcinko will be speaking and lecturing, signing and opining, teaching and preaching, storming and performing at many locations throughout the USA this year! His tour of witty and serious pontifications may be scheduled on a planned or ad-hoc basis; for public or private meetings and gatherings; formally, informally, or over lunch or dinner. All medical societies, financial advisory firms or Broker-Dealers are encouraged to submit a RFP for speaking engagements: CONTACT: MarcinkoAdvisors@outlook.com 

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CAPITAL MARKETS: Defined

Posted on February 19, 2025 by Dr. David Edward Marcinko MBA MEd CMP™

By Staff Reporters

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Capital Market: This is a market where buyers and sellers engage in the trade of financial assets, including stocks and bonds. Capital markets feature several participants, including:

  • Companies: Firms that sell stocks and bonds to investors
  • Institutional investors: Investors who purchase stocks and bonds on behalf of a large capital base
  • Mutual funds: A mutual fund is an institutional investor that manages the investments of thousands of individuals
  • Hedge funds: A hedge fund is another type of institutional investor, which controls risk through hedging—a process of buying one stock and then shorting a similar stock to make money from the difference in their relative performance

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INTERNATIONAL vs. GLOBAL: The Mutual Fund Difference

Posted on February 14, 2025 by Dr. David Edward Marcinko MBA MEd CMP™

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With international stock markets comprising about 40 percent of the world’s capitalization as of 2023, a broad range of investment opportunities exist outside the borders of the U.S.

For investors who are looking to diversify their mutual fund portfolio with exposure to companies located outside the U.S., there exist two basic choices: A global mutual fund or an international mutual fund.

By definition, international funds invest in non-U.S. markets, while global funds may invest in U.S. stocks alongside non-U.S. stocks.

Make a Choice: The definition may seem clear, but what may seem less clear is why an investor might select one over the other. The reason that an investor may select a global fund is to provide the portfolio manager with the latitude to move the fund’s investments among non-U.S. markets and the U.S. market in order to take advantage of the shifts in relative opportunities these markets may present at any given moment.

By investing in a global fund, the challenge for the investor is that he or she may not know at any point in time their total exposure to the U.S. market within the context of their overall portfolio.

An Inside Look: As a consequence, some investors want to manage their allocation risk by setting the broad asset allocation for their portfolio and then identifying funds that are within those asset classes. For these investors, an international fund may make more sense since it allows them to maintain a greater adherence to their desired domestic/international stock allocation.

Keep in mind that asset allocation is an approach to help manage investment risk. Asset allocation does not guarantee against investment loss. As you consider a global or an international fund, you should also be aware of the fund’s approach to the inherent currency risks. Some funds choose to engage in strategies that may mitigate the effects of currency fluctuations, while others consider currency movements – up and down – to be an element of portfolio performance.

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DAILY UPDATE: US Stocks Close Mixed

Posted on February 7, 2025 by Dr. David Edward Marcinko MBA MEd CMP™

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US stocks were mixed on Thursday in anticipation of Amazon’s (AMZN) quarterly results, as investors assessed the earnings season so far and eyed President Donald Trump’s fast-moving policy overhaul.

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The Dow Jones Industrial Average (^DJI) fell 0.3%. The S&P 500 (^GSPC) rose more than 0.3%, and the tech-heavy NASDAQ Composite (^IXIC) popped 0.5% on the heels of two winning days in a row for the major gauges.

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The tariff jitters that shook stocks earlier in the week may have eased, but markets are tracking incoming earnings for any company warnings. At the same time, tech- and chip-related results are being scrutinized for signals about the strength of AI demand.

Visualize: How private equity tangled banks in a web of debt, from the Financial Times.

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JANUARY BAROMETER: Entire Year Stock Market Investment Performance?

Posted on February 3, 2025 by Dr. David Edward Marcinko MBA MEd CMP™

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According to Rob Lenihan, of TheStreet, the January Barometer is a theory that says the investment performance of the S&P 500 in January is representative of the predicted performance of the entire year. The theory says that if stocks are higher in January, they should be higher for the year, and if they are lower in the first month, they’ll be lower for the year.

The S&P 500 finished down on January 31st, but the broad market ended up 2.6% for the month, so maybe we should heed the words of Wall Street legend Yale Hirsch, who first came up with the concept in 1972 in his Stock Trader’s Almanac, a widely read investment guide. Hirsch, by the way, also gave the world the Santa Claus Rally, which describes a rise in stock prices during the last five trading days in December and the first two trading days in the following January.

Analyst Stephen Guilfoyle said early this month in a post for TheStreet Pro that Santa Claus posted a loss this year, which was Santa’s second consecutive year in the red. 

“No sweat,” the veteran trader said in his January 9th TheStreet Pro column. “That’s just a seasonal trade, and 2024 was a very nice year for U.S. equities in a broad sense.”

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DAILY UPDATE: Stocks Regain Steam

Posted on January 31, 2025 by Dr. David Edward Marcinko MBA MEd CMP™

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US stocks gained steam on Thursday afternoon as investors digested megacap tech earnings and waited for Apple (AAPL) results for more clues on prospects for Big Tech. The S&P 500 (^GSPC) gained 0.5%, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average (^DJI) rose nearly 0.4%. The tech-heavy NASDAQ Composite (^IXIC) was up nearly 0.3%.

And, after the Federal Reserve stood pat on interest rates as expected, investors have turned to parsing earnings reports — and in particular, the first wave of results from the “Magnificent Seven” companies that have driven broader stock market gains.

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Right ahead of the closing bell, President Donald Trump once again teased looming 25% tariffs on Mexico and Canada. The US dollar (DX=F) index spiked on the news, reversing earlier losses to close near flat.

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Visualize: How private equity tangled banks in a web of debt, from the Financial Times.

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Escaping Stock Market Double Hell

Posted on January 30, 2025 by Dr. David Edward Marcinko MBA MEd CMP™

By Vitaliy Katsenelson CFA

Escaping Stock Market Double Hell

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Over the last few years, our portfolio has skewed more international, and this is the topic I want to address today. The US is a wonderful country and has many significant competitive advantages over the rest of the world. Despite all of its flaws, it has the most stable political system. It has great geography: It’s bordered by friendly neighbors to the north and south, and by mostly friendly oceans to the east and west. It has an abundance of natural resources. It is one of the largest democracies and has the right amount of capitalism (though we’ve been slipping in this department). We have the best capital markets, and the US is the best place in the world to start a new business, take risks and innovate. These factors led to the coronation of the US dollar as the world’s reserve currency.Ideally, in a perfect world, we’d want to have a portfolio of only US companies. Not because we are patriots, but because our life at IMA would be so much easier. Let me explain all the extra headaches we incur when we own foreign stocks. European markets open 7–8 hours earlier than ours; Japan is 16 hours ahead.

Thus, we have to place orders early in the morning, sometimes in the middle of the night. Our trading system, which links directly to US exchanges, allows us to buy or sell any US stock electronically, directly through our software. It is not linked to foreign exchanges, thus foreign trading comes with significantly more friction and consumes more time. Foreign stocks have multiple tickers, which constantly confuse our clients – this means we receive more inbound inquiries on them. US trading comes with zero commissions, allowing us to accumulate a position slowly, in tiny increments, with little effort. Brokers charge commissions on foreign stocks, so we have to be sensitive to how we are accumulating or disposing of a stock. I am sure I am missing half a dozen other headaches.

Yes, foreign stocks are a big headache for the IMA team. We are not a masochistic bunch, so let me explain why we go through this brain and time damage.Over the last decade the US has attracted the bulk of the capital flows, and the US stock market is trading at one of the highest valuations in US history. Historically, returns that followed such sky-high valuations have been mediocre at best. I wrote two books on this subject. How much you pay for a business, even if it is a great one, is important, as it is one of the key inputs determining your future returns. When we look for stocks, our searches are global. We look at the US and at foreign markets that have the rule of law. But our goal is to buy the stock that offers the highest risk-adjusted returns. For us to buy a foreign stock, it has to compensate us for the extra time and trouble involved – in other words it has to be a super-attractive investment. 

Let me give you a few examples.

When we looked at defense companies, we examined all of them, in the US and internationally. We bought a few in the US but found that European defense companies were a more compelling proposition. First of all, Europe has been sipping Chianti, Bordeaux, Riesling, and Earl Grey for the last thirty years while collecting peace dividends and significantly underinvesting in defense. The US, to a large degree, became NATO.We have more enemies today than at any time in my lifetime, and they are stronger (China has a bigger manufacturing base than the US) and aligning with each other. There is an unthinkable war in Europe, where one country attacked another to steal its territory. China is contemplating invading Taiwan – a tiny island that produces the bulk of the world’s semiconductors. The Middle East is on fire. Rebels most of us didn’t even know existed are making the Red Sea unnavigable. 

And from the European perspective, the US is becoming a fickle friend. Europe is racing to create a $500 billion defense fund, per the FT:Trump’s threat to withdraw US security guarantees from underspending Nato allies has spurred European capitals to explore more radical defense funding options, including joint borrowing that has traditionally been ruled out by fiscal hawks in Germany, the Netherlands and Denmark.

European defense spending is going up and will continue to go up, no matter who is in power and regardless of deficits. Thus, when we looked at defense companies, American counterparts were more expensive and had relatively shorter (though increasing) growth runways. We bought European defense stocks, and so far, it looks like we made the right bet.

On the surface, one of the main risks of buying foreign stocks is that we are making a bet against the US dollar. As you’ll see, this is a bit more nuanced than simply where stocks are listed.I don’t know where the dollar will be over the next five or ten years. Nobody does. Currencies are priced relative to one another. Thus, to forecast the US dollar versus the euro, I’d need two crystal balls – one for the US and another for the EU. I don’t have even one.There are a lot of policies the new administration wants to implement that may cause the dollar to appreciate. For instance, less regulation – if Musk succeeds – would be a huge positive for US economic growth. We need a lot more pragmatism in Washington, DC, something we’ve lost over the years.

But then, the US government embracing Bitcoin is probably one of the most idiotic policy ideas I’ve ever seen come from a politician (though there are contenders). It’s especially baffling when you consider that the only reason we’re not dealing with 20% mortgage rates and 30% car loans  – despite our $36 trillion (and growing) debt – is that the US dollar remains the world’s reserve currency. The US dollar doesn’t have good contenders, and this is why the US government watering the seeds of one makes little sense to me. (I wrote about the problems with Bitcoin here). 

Also, often foreign stocks are only foreign in name. This is where things get nuanced fast. Philip Morris International (PM) is listed on the NYSE but today gets most of its sales from outside the US. British American Tobacco (BTI), listed in London and also trading as an ADR (American depositary receipt) in the US  – despite having “British” in its name – gets half of its sales from the US and half from the rest of the world. We own Swedish and Canadian oil companies. When it comes to oil companies, the location of their assets matter far more than where the companies themselves are listed. Most of the oil assets that these companies hold are in Canada. We chose these companies not only because they’re significantly undervalued and have strong balance sheets, but also because they’re led by exceptional management teams who excel at running the business and at capital allocation – an uncommon trait in the commodity space.

Also, oil is a global commodity, and while many factors affect its price, it’s also indirectly a bet on a weakening US dollar, since oil is priced in US dollars. We have to take this into account when constructing our portfolio.Then we have a UK company that makes components for the aerospace industry.

However, aerospace is a global industry, and over the longer term, the company’s stock performance will be tied entirely to what the aerospace industry as a whole is doing. Its performance will be indifferent to where it’s listed. We bought it at a fraction of the valuation of its American counterparts.We pay close attention to our concentration in a particular country, as well as to our exposure to specific currencies and industries. But as you can see, it’s a lot more nuanced and intricate than simply looking at where a company is traded. Our default choice it to buy American companies; but at the end of the day, our goal is to grow your wealth while keeping the volatility of your blood pressure low, so that you don’t have to worry about the markets. Today the average US stock is trading at a nosebleed valuation. High-quality, undervalued, well-managed foreign-listed stocks are where we’re finding opportunities to hopefully achieve this goal, even if it means more headaches for the IMA team. One more thought: In the late 1990s, value investors experienced both paradise and hell. As tech and dotcom stocks soared higher, there were many cheap stocks to choose from that were neglected by the inflating bubble. That was the paradise part – an abundance of undervalued companies to pick from while the crowd stampeded into the bubble. The hell, of course, was the pain of being left behind while the crowd uncorked champagne.Today, if you only invest in the US, you’re experiencing two hells. Your stocks are underperforming, and even inexpensive stocks are expensive.

Yes, welcome to double hell. European stocks, however, offer paradise today. True, Europe is not the place it used to be a few decades ago – which is precisely why nuance and stock picking are so important.  Value stocks always look less exciting than the ones everyone is talking about.  
I’d love to hear your thoughts, so please leave your comment and feedback here. Also, if you missed my previous article “Embracing Stock Market Stoicism”, you can read it and leave a comment here.

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ICE and Bank of America [BoA] Indices

Posted on January 18, 2025 by Dr. David Edward Marcinko MBA MEd CMP™

By Staff Reporters

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The ICE 3-Month USD LIBOR interest rate is the average interest rate at which a selection of banks in London are prepared to lend to one another in American dollars with a maturity of 3 months.

The Bank of America US High Yield Constrained Index is a market value-weighted index of all domestic high-yield bonds and Yankee high-yield bonds (issued by a foreign entity and denominated in U.S. dollars), including deferred interest bonds and payment-in-kind securities.

The ICE BofA BB-B US High Yield Constrained Index is composed of U.S. dollar-denominated corporate debt publicly issued in the U.S. market rated BB through B, based on an average of Moody’s, S&P and Fitch ratings, with issuer exposure capped at 2%.

ICE BofA U.S. Convertible Index tracks the performance of publicly issued, exchange-listed US dollar denominated convertible securities of US companies with at least $50 million face amount outstanding and at least one month remaining to the final conversion date. Index constituents are market capitalization-weighted and rebalanced monthly.

ICE BofA ML MOVE Index is a widely used measure of bond market volatility, similar to the VIX Index for stocks. The MOVE Index (also known as the Merrill Lynch Option Volatility Estimate) is a yield-curve-weighted index that tracks the market’s expectation of volatility in the U.S. bond market based on 1-month Treasury options.

ICE Exchange-Listed Preferred & Hybrid Securities Index tracks the performance of exchange-listed US dollar denominated hybrid debt, preferred stock and convertible preferred stock publicly issued by corporations in the US domestic market. Preferred stock and notes must have a minimum amount outstanding of $100 million; convertible preferred stock must have at least $50 million face amount outstanding. Index constituents are market capitalization-weighted subject to certain constraints. The index is re-balanced monthly.

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DAILY UPDATE: Stock Markets Close Mixed

Posted on January 14, 2025 by Dr. David Edward Marcinko MBA MEd CMP™

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Stocks closed mixed on Monday, with Big Tech names paring losses as the dollar and bond yields climbed amid fading hopes for interest rate cuts ahead of this week’s key consumer inflation reports.

The S&P 500 (^GSPC) settled almost 0.2% higher after falling as much as 1% during the session, while the NASDAQ Composite (^IXIC) fell 0.4%. Shares of Nvidia (NVDA) and Apple (AAPL) closed off their session lows, though most “Magnificent Seven” tech megacaps fell during the session.

The blue-chip Dow Jones Industrial Average (^DJI), which includes fewer tech stocks, rose 0.8%, or more than 350 points.

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Stocks navigated another volatile session after Friday’s plunge, which wiped out all year-to-date gains for Wall Street’s major gauges. A hot December jobs report rattled markets, spurring concern that signs of strength in the economy will encourage the Federal Reserve to keep rates higher for longer.

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EXTENDED Equity Strategies

Posted on January 13, 2025 by Dr. David Edward Marcinko MBA MEd CMP™

By Staff Reporters

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Extended equity strategies attempt to provide better returns than possible with long-only investments.

An example of an extended equity strategy is a 130/30 portfolio, which gets its designation from taking a 130% long position and a 30% short position. In practice, this would mean $100mm invested in stocks that are viewed as attractive. Next, the manager would borrow and sell short $30mm of unattractive stocks. Then the manager uses the proceeds from the short sale to buy an additional $30mm of attractive stocks. This results in a portfolio that has 130% long and 30% short exposure to stocks, or “extended” exposure to equities relative to a long-only, 100% stock portfolio.

Nevertheless, it’s important to point out that here is the risk of theoretical unlimited amount of loss with short selling, (i.e. the price of the short-sold stocks increases; the long position can only go down to $0).

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DAILY UPDATE: Dental and Medical Record Data Breaches as Stocks Jump!

Posted on January 4, 2025 by Dr. David Edward Marcinko MBA MEd CMP™

MEDICAL EXECUTIVE-POST – TODAY’S NEWSLETTER BRIEFING

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Nvidia stock (NVDA) led gains among the “Magnificent Seven” tech stocks to start the new year after a group-wide sell-off in the last days of 2024. Shares of the AI chip-maker rose 4.5% Friday after gaining roughly 3% the prior day.

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Stat: 18. That’s how many dental data breaches there were in the US in 2024. (Becker’s Dental + DSO Review)

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Quote: “If your credit card gets compromised, your bank will alert you, cancel it and send you get a new one. But your medical records have a long lifespan. They can be misused without detection for long periods of time, because it’s harder to identify malicious activity. That makes them very valuable.”—Geetha Thamilarasu, associate professor at the University of Washington Bothell, on why hackers want healthcare information (the Wall Street Journal)

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That upswing followed a 4% dip between Christmas Eve and New Year’s Eve as megacap tech stocks dropped across the board in the absence of a “Santa Claus” rally, where the stock market typically enjoys a surge between December 24th and January 2nd. Tesla (TSLA) stock plunged nearly 13% over that time frame, while Amazon (AMZN) and Microsoft (MSFT) dropped more than 4%. Meanwhile, Meta (META) and Google (GOOG) fell just under 4%, and Apple (AAPL) dropped 3%.

Even with its December decline, Nvidia shares still ended 2024 up more than 150%. Wall Street analysts have remained bullish on the stock, estimating shares will rise to roughly $173 over the next year from their current level of $138, according to Yahoo Finance data.

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DAILY UPDATE: Markets Down Closing Out Year!

Posted on January 1, 2025 by Dr. David Edward Marcinko MBA MEd CMP™

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US stocks slipped Tuesday, closing 2024 with an uncharacteristic down note after a roaring year of trading. The S&P 500 (^GSPC) fell 0.4%. The Dow Jones Industrial Average (^DJI) dropped just below the flatline, while the tech-heavy NASDAQ Composite (^IXIC) led the losses at 0.9%.

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Despite the sour final stretch, the benchmark S&P 500 closed 2024 up 23%, according to Yahoo Finance data. The tech-heavy NASDAQ Composite gained almost 30%. The Dow Jones Industrial Average posted a more modest 13% win. The S&P’s annual gain roughly matches 2023’s performance, logging the highest consecutive back-to-back annual gain in nearly 30 years.

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OPEN / CLOSED: Today and Tomorrow?

Posted on December 31, 2024 by Dr. David Edward Marcinko MBA MEd CMP™

By Staff Reporters

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Is the Stock Market Open or Closed on New Year’s Eve?

Bond markets will close early at 2 p.m. Eastern on Tuesday, while the New York Stock Exchange and the NASDAQ Stock Market will hold regular hours from 9:30 a.m. to 4 p.m. Eastern. Over-the-counter markets, where securities trade over a broker-dealer network rather than a major exchange, will keep normal hours.

Is the Stock Market Open or Closed on New Year’s Day?

Both the U.S. bond and stock markets will be closed in observance of New Year’s Day. Over-the-counter markets will be shut, too.

What About International Markets?

Foreign exchanges, such as the London Stock Exchange, the Euronext Paris, the Stock Exchange of Hong Kong, the Shanghai Stock Exchange, and the Tokyo Stock Exchange, will be closed on Wednesday, January 1st.

Will Banks and Post Offices Be Open?

Federal Reserve banks and United States Post Service locations will be closed in observance of New Year’s Day.

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MARKETS: Risk-On, Risk-Off and On-Off

Posted on December 30, 2024 by Dr. David Edward Marcinko MBA MEd CMP™

By Staff Reporters

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Risk-On

RO = Asset prices commonly follow the risk sentiment of the market. Investors look for changing sentiment through corporate earnings, macro-economic data, and global central bank action. An increase in the stock market or where stocks outperform bonds is said to be a risk-on environment.

Risk-on environments can be carried by expanding corporate earnings, optimistic economic outlook, accommodative central bank policies, and speculation. As the market displays strong influential fundamentals, investors perceive less risk about the market and its outlook.

Risk-Off

ROff = When stocks are selling off, and investors run for shelter to bonds or gold, the environment is said to be risk-off. Risk-off environments can be caused by widespread corporate earnings downgrades, contracting or slowing economic data, and uncertain central bank policy.

Just like the stock market rises in a risk-on environment, a drop in the stock market equals a risk-off environment. Investors jump from risky assets and pile into high grade bonds, U.S. Treasury bonds, gold, cash, and other safe havens

Risk-On Risk-Off?

Risk-on-risk-off investing relies on and is driven by changes in investor risk tolerance. Risk-on-risk-off (RORO) can also sway changes in investment activity in response to economic patterns. When risk is low, investors tend to engage in higher-risk investments. Investors tend to gravitate toward lower-risk investments when risk is perceived to be high.

Note: Thanks to Chat GPT.

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SECTOR ALLOCATION: Mutual Funds

Posted on December 25, 2024 by Dr. David Edward Marcinko MBA MEd CMP™

By Staff Reporters

Sponsor: http://www.MarcinkoAssociates.com

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Sector allocation in an equity or fixed-income context refers to a portfolio managers’ decision to invest in a particular broad market sector or industry.

A sector allocation or breakdown can help an investor observe the investment allocations of a mutual or other fund. Fund companies regularly provide sector reporting in their marketing materials. Sector investing can influence investments in the fund. A fund may target a specific sector such as technology, or seek to diversify among many sectors.

Some funds may have restraints on sector investments. This may occur with environmental, social, and governance (ESG) focused funds. These funds seek to exclude industries or companies that their investors consider undesirable for various reasons such as tobacco producers or oil exploration companies.

The ultimate sector allocation decision is likely to combine macroeconomic views with judgments about inter-sector and intra-sector relative values, among other reasons.

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DAILY UPDATE: FDIC Misconduct as Stocks Climb

Posted on December 24, 2024 by Dr. David Edward Marcinko MBA MEd CMP™

MEDICAL EXECUTIVE-POST – TODAY’S NEWSLETTER BRIEFING

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The stock market will be open on Christmas Eve 2024 but will close early at 1 p.m. ET in anticipation of Christmas Day. This early closure allows market participants to wind down ahead of the holiday.

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The Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation has suspended pay bonuses for roughly two dozen executives under investigation for misconduct, a year after a Wall Street Journal investigation revealed a toxic and sexualized workplace culture at the bank regulator.

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Stocks climbed on Monday as tech rallied and investors considered the path of interest rates next year after the Fed hinted they would stay higher for longer.

The S&P 500 (^GSPC) gained 0.7%, while the tech-heavy NASDAQ (^IXIC) rose almost 1%. The Dow Jones Industrial Average (^DJI) erased earlier losses to edge almost 0.2% higher.

Semiconductor stocks gained, as shares of chipmakers Nvidia (NVDA) and Broadcom (AVGO) rose more than 3% and 5%, respectively. And, robust gains from social media platform Meta (META) and EV giant Tesla (TSLA) also helped lead the broader market higher.

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DAILY UPDATE: Retail Pharmacies Down as the Stock Market Rally Stall Out

Posted on December 4, 2024 by Dr. David Edward Marcinko MBA MEd CMP™

MEDICAL EXECUTIVE-POST – TODAY’S NEWSLETTER BRIEFING

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Rite Aid filed for bankruptcy last October, and CVS and Walgreens reported steep losses over 2024.

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STOCKS UP

  • AT&T climbed 4.58% thanks to a few big announcements during its investor day, including returning over $40 billion to shareholders via dividends and stock buybacks over the next three years.
  • Palantir popped 6.88% after the US government gave the cybersecurity darling the green light to let its cloud offerings handle classified data. It also helped that Barrons expects the company will be added to the Nasdaq 100 in 2025.
  • Speaking of Palantir, BigBear.ai soared 28.64% after the server company was touted as the next Palantir by the Economic Times.
  • Data center company Credo Technology Group skyrocketed 47.89% thanks to an impressive earnings report and a glowing fiscal forecast.

STOCKS DOWN

  • US Steel dropped 8.01% on President-elect Trump’s declaration that he will block the company’s acquisition by Nippon Steel.
  • Tesla sank 1.59% after a Delaware judge once again blocked Elon Musk’s $56 billion pay package. The case will go back to court yet again, and may eventually reach the Supreme Court.
  • Intel tumbled another 6.10% two days after CEO Pat Gelsinger was fired happily decided to retire.
  • The children aren’t alright: Children’s Place crashed 24.15% after the children’s clothing retailer announced its turnaround isn’t going so well.
  • South Korean stocks took a beating after the country’s president declared martial law. The country’s largest online retailer, Coupang, sank 3.74%, steel manufacturer Posco Holdings dropped 4.32%, and Samsung tumbled 3.71%.

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Here’s where the major benchmarks ended:

  •  The S&P 500® index (SPX) rose 2.73 points (0.05%) to 6,049.88; the Dow Jones Industrial Average® ($DJI) fell 76.47 points (–0.17%) to 44,705.53; and the NASDAQ Composite® ($COMP) added 76.96 points (0.40%) to 19,480.91.
  • The 10-year Treasury note yield added three basis points to 4.22% after falling below 4.17% at one point.
  • The CBOE Volatility Index® (VIX)held steady at 13.39.

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FIXED FINANCIAL SPREADS FOR PHYSICIANS: Duration, Sectors, Widening, Tightening and Other Fixed Income Strategies

Posted on November 26, 2024 by Dr. David Edward Marcinko MBA MEd CMP™

DEFINITIONS FOR PHYSICIANS

By Dr. David Edward Marcinko MBA MEd

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Spread duration is a risk measure, expressed in years, that estimates the price sensitivity of a fixed income investment to a 100 basis point change in credit spreads relative to similar-maturity Treasuries.

Spread sectors (aka “spread products,” “spread securities”) in fixed income parlance, are typically non-Treasury securities that usually trade in the fixed income markets at higher yields than same-maturity U.S. Treasury securities. The yield difference between Treasuries and non-Treasuries is called the “spread”), hence the name “spread sectors” for non-Treasuries.

These sectors–such as corporate-issued securities and mortgage-backed securities (MBS–typically trade at higher yields (spreads) than Treasuries because they usually have relatively lower credit quality and more credit / default risk and / or they have more prepayment risk.

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Spread widening, tightening are changes in spreads that reflect changes in relative value, with “spread widening” usually indicating relative price depreciation and “spread tightening” indicating relative price appreciation.

Spreads (aka “interest-rate spreads”, “maturity spreads,” “yield spreads” or “credit spreads”)

In fixed income parlance, spreads are simply measured differences or gaps that exists between two interest rates or yields that are being compared with each other. Spreads typically exist and are measured between fixed income securities of the same credit quality, but different maturities, or of the same maturity, but different credit quality.

Changes in spreads typically reflect changes in relative value, with “spread widening” usually indicating relative price depreciation of the securities whose yields are increasing most, and “spread tightening” indicating relative price appreciation of the securities whose yields are declining most (or remaining relatively fixed while other yields are rising to meet them). Value-oriented investors typically seek to buy when spreads are relatively wide and sell after spreads tighten.

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BID/ASK SPREAD: Basis Points with Formulas

Posted on November 24, 2024 by Dr. David Edward Marcinko MBA MEd CMP™

By Staff Reporters

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DEFINITIONS

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Basis Points are used in financial literature to express values that are carried out to two decimal places (hundredths of a percentage point), particularly ratios, such as yields, fees, and returns. Basis points describe values that are typically on the right side of the decimal point–one basis point equals one one-hundredth of a percentage point (0.01%). So 25 basis points equals 0.25%, and 50 basis points equals 0.50%.

Only when basis points equal or exceed 100 does the value move to the left of the decimal point–100 basis points equals 1.00%, 500 basis points equals 5.00%, etc.

CITE: https://www.r2library.com/Resource/Title/0826102549

Bid/Ask Spread (also known as bid/offer spread) is the difference between the National Best Bid and the National Best Offer, which represents the implied cost to trade a security.

As compensation for the risk taken, the market maker (or dealer) earns the bid/offer spread in exchange for facilitating the trade. Wider spreads generally indicate higher costs associated with trading the underlying assets in the ETF, hedging costs, inventory management costs, and general market risk.

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DAILY UPDATE: Google and Ford Motor as Stock Markets Rise and Broaden

Posted on November 22, 2024 by Dr. David Edward Marcinko MBA MEd CMP™

MEDICAL EXECUTIVE-POST – TODAY’S NEWSLETTER BRIEFING

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The DOJ asked a judge to force Google to sell its Chrome browser, following his ruling that Google maintained an illegal monopoly in search.
Ford said it is cutting 4,000 jobs in Europe, about 14% of its workforce on the continent, citing weak demand for EVs and competition from Chinese cars.

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STOCKS UP

  • Data analytics firm Snowflake soared 32.71% after posting impressive earnings, including a 28% increase in revenue last quarter.
  • BJ’s Wholesale Club has had an okay year, but its latest earnings report gave shareholders plenty to cheer. The big news: BJ’s is increasing its membership fee for the first time in seven years. Shares rose 8.24%.
  • Despite the fact that the world’s largest farming equipment manufacturer sees a big slowdown ahead, Deere beat earnings estimates last quarter, which was enough to help shares climb 8.12%.

STOCKS DOWN

It took a second, but it’s finally registering that Alphabet may be forced by the Department of Justice to divest its popular Chrome browser. Shares fell 4.74% as investors digest this stark reality.

  • Speaking of search engines, Baidu sank 5.90% after the Chinese tech stock missed analyst estimates on both earnings and revenue last quarter.
  • Speaking of Chinese companies, PDD Holdings, parent company of online retailer Temu, reported higher earnings and revenue last quarter—but it still fell short of analyst forecasts. Shares dropped 10.64%.
  • Speaking of struggling retailers, Beyond Inc., the company that owns Bed, Bath & Beyond and Overstock.com, was supposed to invest $40 million into struggling retailer The Container Store. Unfortunately for both, the deal fell through. Shares of Beyond sank 2.87%, while The Container Store dropped 9.79%.

CITE: https://tinyurl.com/2h47urt5

Here’s where the major benchmarks ended:

  • The SPX buoyed 31.60 points (0.53%) to 5,948.71; the Dow Jones Industrial Average® ($DJI) rose 461.88 points (1.06%) to 43,870.35; and the NASDAQ Composite® ($COMP) stayed relatively flat, up 6.28 points (0.03%) to 18,972.42.
  • The 10-year Treasury note yield added two basis points to 4.42%, staying rangebound.
  • The CBOE Volatility Index® (VIX) slipped to 16.87, still above last week’s levels.

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INVESTMENT: Management Strategies

Posted on November 21, 2024 by Dr. David Edward Marcinko MBA MEd CMP™

By Staff Reporters

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Active investment management strategies are the opposite of passive investment strategies. Active portfolio managers regularly take investment positions that clearly differ from those of the portfolio’s performance benchmark, with the objective of outperforming the benchmark over time.

Passive: https://medicalexecutivepost.com/2024/06/09/active-or-passive-investing-pursuits/

In addition to the upside potential of outperforming the benchmark, there’s also the downside possibility of under performing the benchmark. In an efficient market, there should be roughly the same magnitude of out performers and under performers for any given benchmark. But, markets are not always efficient.

Active non-transparent investment management strategies are Exchange Traded Funds that are actively managed by a portfolio manager or team of managers without daily disclosure of portfolio holdings. Active transparent strategies are daily disclosures of portfolio holdings as an attribute of traditional index-based Exchange Traded Funds (ETFs). Active transparent exchange traded funds are actively managed by a portfolio manager or team of managers. As with index-based ETFs, their portfolio holdings are disclosed daily.

Di-Worsification: https://medicalexecutivepost.com/2024/04/09/what-is-financial-portfolio-di-worsification-2/

NOTE: Absolute return as an investment vehicle seeks to make positive returns by employing investment management techniques that differ from traditional mutual funds. Absolute return investment techniques include using short selling, futures, options, derivatives, arbitrage, leverage and unconventional assets.

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DAILY UPDATE: GoodRx as Stocks End Flat

Posted on November 21, 2024 by Dr. David Edward Marcinko MBA MEd CMP™

MEDICAL EXECUTIVE-POST – TODAY’S NEWSLETTER BRIEFING

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It’s not all good news for GoodRx.

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STOCKS UP

Williams-Sonoma soared 27.50% to a record high after the home goods store beat top and bottom line earnings expectations. Its operating profit margin jumped to 17.8% from 17% last year, and the company said its board greenlit a $1 billion stock buyback plan.

  • Wix jumped 14.31% on a solid beat for its third quarter. Profit for the software firm reached $0.46 per share, compared to the $0.12 per share it reported last year.
  • Lemonade rose 16.04% after Morgan Stanley upgraded the insurance company from “underweight” to “equal-weight.” At its investor day, Lemonade unveiled a plan to juice its premiums from $1 billion to $10 billion over the next several years.

STOCKS DOWN

  • Ford said it was cutting 4,000 jobs in Europe, about 14% of its workforce on the continent, citing weak demand for EVs and competition from Chinese cars. Shares fell 2.90%.
  • Qualcomm dropped 6.34% after its first Investor Day in three years disappointed. On Tuesday, the chipmaker revealed its big plans to expand from its bread-and-butter smartphone business into making chips for cars and PCs.
  • Elf sank 2.23% after short seller Carson Block, the founder of Muddy Waters Research, accused the beauty company of inflating revenue.

CITE: https://tinyurl.com/2h47urt5

Here’s where the major benchmarks ended:

  •  The S&P 500® index (SPX) stayed mostly flat, up 0.13 points (0.0%) to 5,917.11; the Dow Jones Industrial Average® ($DJI) rose 139.53 points (0.32%) to 43,408.47; and the NASDAQ Composite® ($COMP) fell 21.32 points (0.11%) to 18,966.14. 
  • The 10-year Treasury note yield added four basis points to 4.41%.
  • The CBOE Volatility Index® (VIX) climbed to 17.26, near recent highs.

CITE: https://tinyurl.com/tj8smmes

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Stocks, Treasuries, Gold and Bitcoin

Posted on November 20, 2024 by Dr. David Edward Marcinko MBA MEd CMP™
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  • Stocks sank yesterday on news that Russian President Vladimir Putin lowered the threshold for using nuclear weapons, retaliation against the US for allowing Ukraine to use American-made long-range missiles. The NASDAQ and S&P 500 managed to recover, but the DJIA stayed all day in the red.
  • Treasury yields dropped as bonds rose.
  • Gold popped as traders sought safety, as the commodity benefited from the US dollar pulling back from a recent one-year high.
  • Bitcoin continued to climb slowly but surely, reaching another new all-time high.

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DAILY UPDATE: Dermatology and Oura Rings as NASDAQ Rises

Posted on November 20, 2024 by Dr. David Edward Marcinko MBA MEd CMP™

MEDICAL EXECUTIVE-POST – TODAY’S NEWSLETTER BRIEFING

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How dermatology became the hottest field in medicine.

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STOCKS UP

  • Talk about cutting it close: Super Micro Computer filed a much-delayed financial plan at the 11th hour, avoiding a delisting from the Nasdaq. Shares soared 31.24%.
  • AI-enabled robotics company Symbotic surged 27.68% after announcing an impressive beat-and-raise quarter.
  • MicroStrategy climbed another 11.89% after yesterday’s huge surge. The crypto company announced it will continue to purchase more bitcoin in the weeks ahead.

STOCKS DOWN

  • More Trump Trade 2.0 developments: The newly formed Department of Government Efficiency is considering creating an app that allows Americans to file their taxes on a phone for free. Intuit sank 5.10%, and H&R Block dropped 8.31% on the news.
  • Speaking of Trump, platform Bakkt popped then dropped 0.67% following yesterday’s news that Trump Media & Technology Group may acquire the company. Trump Media shares fell 8.88%.
  • Kraft Heinz fell 1.58% on a Piper Sandler downgrade due to the company’s slow retail sales and the threat of new government regulations from the Health Department.
  • Lowe’s may have beaten top and bottom line expectations last quarter, but the home improvement retailer’s forecast of slower sales next year sent the stock falling 4.62%.
  • Incyte tumbled 8.33% after the pharma company announced it was pausing the Phase 2 trial of its new spontaneous hives treatment.

CITE: https://tinyurl.com/2h47urt5

Here’s where the major benchmarks ended:

  •  The S&P 500® index (SPX) was up 23.36 points (0.4%) to 5916.98; the Dow Jones Industrial Average® ($DJI) dipped 120.66 points (0.28%) to 43,268.94; and the NASDAQ Composite® ($COMP) rose 195.66 points (1.04%) to 18,987.49.
  • The 10-year Treasury note yield fell four basis points to 4.38%.
  • The CBOE Volatility Index® (VIX) eased to 16.04 after an earlier pop above 17.

CITE: https://tinyurl.com/tj8smmes

Oura rings will soon be integrated with glucose biosensors after a $75 million series D funding round with medical device maker Dexcom.

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CBOE: Chicago Board Options Exchange [Volatility Indexes]

Posted on November 19, 2024 by Dr. David Edward Marcinko MBA MEd CMP™

By Staff Reporters

SPONSOR: http://www.MarcinkoAssociates.com

RELATED DEFINITIONS

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Volatility indexes are forward-looking measures of the market’s expectations of volatility (or how much a stock index’s price moves). The CBOE manages and publishes three of the most widely used volatility indexes based on three major stock indexes:

The VIX Index tracks the expected 30-day future volatility of the S&P 500 Index.

The VXN Index tracks the expected 30-day future volatility of the NASDAQ-100 Index.

The VXD Index tracks the expected 30-day future volatility of the Dow Jones Industrial Average Index.

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SECURITY ORDERS: Stop-Loss and Stop-Limit

Posted on November 19, 2024 by Dr. David Edward Marcinko MBA MEd CMP™

By Dr. David Edward Marcinko MBA MEd

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A Stop order, also known as a “stop-loss order,” a stop order is an order placed with a bank or brokerage firm to either buy or sell a security after it reaches a specified price. Once the price is reached, the stop order becomes a market order, meaning there is no guarantee that an order will be completely filled at the specified stop price.

MORE: https://medicalexecutivepost.com/2024/08/30/stock-orders-positions-doctors-should-know/

A Stop-limit order is order placed with a bank or brokerage firm to buy or sell a fixed amount of an investment after it reaches a specified or better price, combining the features of a stop order and a limit order.

MORE: https://medicalexecutivepost.com/2024/08/07/about-securities-order-and-position-types/

A stop-limit order requires investors to set two price points: the first initiates the stop (the order to buy or sell) and the second sets the limit, or price beyond which the investor would not like to buy or sell. The investor also sets a time frame for which the order is valid before being cancelled. If the investor’s price cannot be met during the specified time frame, the order will be cancelled.

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DAILY UPDATE: All About the Stock Markets

Posted on November 19, 2024 by Dr. David Edward Marcinko MBA MEd CMP™

MEDICAL EXECUTIVE-POST – TODAY’S NEWSLETTER BRIEFING

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  • Stocks ended the day mixed, with the Dow sinking into the red while the S&P 500 and NASDAQ kicked off the week on a positive note thanks to gains from tech stocks.
  • Oil popped on a double-whammy of news: Long-range, US-made ballistic missiles launched from Ukraine into Russia might disrupt oil supply, while the shutdown of Norway’s Johan Sverdrup oil field due to a power outage will definitely disrupt oil supply.
  • Crypto continued its hot streak today: Bitcoin popped back above $90,000, giving other cryptocurrencies a boost.
  • Bitcoin’s boom has certainly helped MicroStrategy, which announced today that it purchased 51,780 bitcoins for approximately $4.6 billion in cash, or roughly $88,627 per bitcoin, in the last week alone.

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STOCKS UP

The new Trump Trade continues: The president-elect’s selection of Liberty Energy CEO Chris Wright to lead the Department of Energy gave Liberty a 4.85% boost today. Wright is also on the board of nuclear company Oklo, which popped 14.83%.

  • Speaking of Trump, Trump Media & Technology Group soared 16.65% on the news that it may purchase crypto trading firm Bakkt.
  • Netflix disappointed viewers with its glitchy showing of Jake Paul vs. Mike Tyson, but shareholders forgave the company after it announced record viewership of the fight. Shares climbed 2.80%.
  • CVS Health gained 5.41% on news that it struck a deal with activist investor Glenview Capital Management to add four new seats to its board.
  • Robinhood jumped 8.29% to a new all-time high thanks to an upgrade from Needham analysts giving the investing app a “buy” rating due to its crypto offerings under a pro-crypto Trump presidency.
  • Warner Bros. Discovery rose 2.71% on a Wall Street Journal report that it has settled its legal dispute with the NBA, guaranteeing broadcast rights for the next decade.

STOCKS DOWN

  • Nvidia isn’t often in this section of the newsletter, but the semiconductor leader sank 1.29% today on a report from The Information that its new Blackwell chips are prone to overheating.
  • Palantir popped after moving over to the Nasdaq last week, but the red-hot software stock dropped 6.86% as investors collected profits.
  • Redfin may help you buy a house, but the online real estate brokerage is a “sell,” according to Goldman Sachs. The Wall Street firm cited low home sales, low affordability, and low chances of success in a competitive market. Shares fell 4.42%.
  • Uber dropped 5.35% to a new 52-week low on the threat of Tesla’s robotaxis ruling the road thanks to a Trump administration that seems keen on cutting self-driving regulations.

CITE: https://tinyurl.com/2h47urt5

Here’s where the major benchmarks ended:

  •  The SPX was up 23.00 points (0.4%) to 5893.62; the Dow Jones Industrial Average® ($DJI) fell 55.39 points (0.1%) to 43,389.6; and the NASDAQ Composite® ($COMP) was up 111.69 points (0.6%) to 18,791.81.
  • The 10-year Treasury note yield fell one basis point to 4.41%.
  • The CBOE Volatility Index® (VIX) eased to 15.57.

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BIAS: Of “Social Proof” and Influencers

Posted on November 15, 2024 by Dr. David Edward Marcinko MBA MEd CMP™

INVESTING DEFINITION

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Social Proof is a subtle but powerful reality that having others agree with a decision one makes, gives that person more conviction in the decision, and having others disagree decreases one’s confidence in that decision. 

This bias is even more exaggerated when the other parties providing the validating/questioning opinions are perceived to be experts in a relevant field, or are authority figures, like doctors, attorneys, financial advisors, teachers and/or people on television.  In many ways, the short term moves in the stock market are the ultimate expression of social proof – the price of a stock one owns going up is proof that a lot of other people agree with the decision to buy, and a dropping stock price means a stock should be sold. 

According to colleague Dan Ariely PhD, when these stressors become extreme, it is of paramount importance that all participants in the financial planning and investing process have a clear understanding of what the long-term goals are, and what processes are in place to monitor the progress towards these goals. 

Without these mechanisms it is very hard to resist the enormous pressure to follow the crowd; think social media and related influences.

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Convertible Securities, Bonds and Corporate Securities

Posted on November 15, 2024 by Dr. David Edward Marcinko MBA MEd CMP™

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Convertible securities are those that can be converted at the investor’s choice into other investments, normally into shares of the issuer’s underlying common stock. Convertibles are typically issued as bonds or preferred stock.

Convertible bonds, which provide an ongoing stream of income, can be converted into a preset number of shares of the company’s common stock and have a maturity date. Unlike common stock, which pays a variable dividend depending on a corporation’s earnings, convertible preferred stock pays a fixed quarterly dividend. It can be converted into common stock at any time, but often are perpetual.

Corporate securities (corporate bonds and notes) are debt instruments issued by corporations, as distinct from those issued by governments, government agencies, or municipalities.

Corporate securities typically have the following features: 1) they are taxable, 2) they tend to have more credit (default) risk than government or municipal securities, so they tend to have higher yields than comparable-maturity securities in those sectors; and 3) they are traded on major exchanges, with prices published in newspapers.

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DAILY UPDATE: Healthcare Private Equity Prominent as Stocks Go Down

Posted on November 15, 2024 by Dr. David Edward Marcinko MBA MEd CMP™

MEDICAL EXECUTIVE-POST – TODAY’S NEWSLETTER BRIEFING

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Private equity (PE) dollars have become prominent in the US healthcare industry in recent decades, with PE firms now owning roughly 8% of all private hospitals in the country, according to nonprofit Private Equity Stakeholder Project. But studies have illustrated the financial model’s potential adverse effects, such one published in JAMA in December 2023 that found PE-owned hospitals are 25.4% more likely to report patient complications. Others have found that PE-owned healthcare companies represented more than one-fifth of healthcare company bankruptcies in 2023 and that PE-owned hospitals see their assets drop an average of 24% following an acquisition.

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STOCKS UP

Tapestry, parent company of luxury brands like Coach and Kate Spade, and Capri, parent company of luxury brands like Versace and Jimmy Choo, have announced they will mutually terminate their planned merger. Tapestry popped 12.80%, while Capri rose 4.43%.

  • Speaking of luxury brands, Burberry soared 18.04% after its CEO announced a turnaround plan designed to halt the company’s recent decline.
  • Semiconductor maker ASML plummeted last month on a profit warning, but rose 2.90% today on reassurances that it’s still on track to meet its 2030 revenue forecasts.

STOCKS DOWN

  • Super Micro Computer fell yet another 11.41% as it nears the November 16 deadline to report fiscal year earnings or be delisted from the Nasdaq.
  • Trump Media & Technology Group dropped 6.71% as investors digested news that company insiders are shedding shares, as well as in reaction to a number of President-elect Trump’s cabinet appointments.
  • Hims & Hers Health tumbled 24.46% on the news that Amazon is getting into the telehealth game, offering Prime members fixed prices on treatments for hair loss and erectile dysfunction.
  • Ibotta is a cashback rewards company, but its shareholders may want their cash back. The company beat on top and bottom line estimates last quarter, but the win wasn’t good enough, and shares sank 12.55%.

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Here’s where the major benchmarks ended:

  • The S&P 500® index (SPX) fell 36.21 points (–0.60%) to 5,949.17; the Dow Jones Industrial Average® ($DJI) lost 207.33 points (–0.47%) to 43,750.86; and the NASDAQ Composite® ($COMP) dropped 123.07 points (–0.64%) to 19,107.65. 
  • The 10-year Treasury note yield fell three basis points to 4.42%.
  • The CBOE Volatility Index® (VIX) edged up to 14.17.

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FINANCIAL YIELDS: All About Fixed Income Securities

Posted on November 13, 2024 by Dr. David Edward Marcinko MBA MEd CMP™

By Dr. David Edward Marcinko MBA MEd CMP™

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Yield: For bonds and other fixed-income securities, yield is a rate of return on those securities. There are several types of yields and yield calculations. “Yield to maturity” is a common calculation for fixed-income securities, which takes into account total annual interest payments, the purchase price, the redemption value, and the amount of time remaining until maturity.

Yield curve: A line graph showing the yields of fixed income securities from a single sector (such as Treasuries or municipals), but from a range of different maturities (typically three months to 30 years), at a single point in time (often at month-, quarter- or year-end). Maturities are plotted on the x-axis of the graph, and yields are plotted on the y-axis. The resulting line is a key bond market benchmark and a leading economic indicator.

Yield to maturity [real yield to maturity]: Yield to maturity is a common performance calculation for fixed-income securities, which takes into account total annual interest payments, the purchase price, the redemption value, and the amount of time remaining until maturity. Real yield to maturity is simply yield to maturity minus any “inflation premium” that had been added/priced in. (See Real yield.)

Yield ratio: A ratio of one yield divided by another. Most often used as a relative value measurement.

Yield spread: A “spread,” in fixed income parlance, is simply a difference. Yield spreads measure yield differences, typically between debt securities with high credit ratings (which typically have lower yields) and those with lower ratings (which typically have higher yields). Yield spreads can also be measured between debt securities with different maturities (shorter-maturity securities typically have lower yields and longer-maturity securities typically have higher yields).

Yield trap: An investment that can lure investors with an attractive yield that may not be fundamentally sustainable, or that may lead to undesired price volatility. Yield traps can lurk in both the equity and fixed income markets. They have a tendency to prey on those who can least afford them, including retirement investors looking for increased relative income and stability, who may have been too focused on their income goals and not enough on stability.

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DAILY UPDATE: Bitcoin Fog as Chegg the DJIA and NASDAQ Drop

Posted on November 13, 2024 by Dr. David Edward Marcinko MBA MEd CMP™

MEDICAL EXECUTIVE-POST – TODAY’S NEWSLETTER BRIEFING

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The operator of the longest-running money laundering machine in dark web history, Bitcoin Fog, has been sentenced to 12 years and six months in US prison. Roman Sterlingov, 36, a Russian-Swedish national, was also ordered to repay more than half a billion dollars accrued from the cryptocurrency mixing service that he ran for a decade between 2011 and 2021.

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Stocks Up

  • r Elliott Investment Management is at it again, this time with a $5 billion stake in industrial conglomerate Honeywell. Shares gained 3.87% on the news.
  • Shopify announced its ninth consecutive quarter of beating analyst revenue expectations, pushing shares up 21.04%.
  • Bad news is good news: 40% of the workforce at 23andMe is getting laid off to cut costs. Shareholders cheered, and shares climbed 2.17%.
  • Where’s the beef? Tyson Foods popped 6.55% after announcing strong earnings thanks to higher beef and chicken prices last quarter.
  • Sentinel One climbed 2.01% after Deutsche Bank analysts upgraded the cybersecurity stock from “hold” to “buy,” noting it should profit from CrowdStrike’s outage earlier this year.

Stocks Down

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Here’s where the major benchmarks ended:

  • The S&P 500® index (SPX) fell 17.36 points (–0.29%) to 5,983.99; the Dow Jones Industrial Average® ($DJI) lost 382.15 points (–0.86%) to 43,910.98; and the NASDAQ Composite® ($COMP) decreased 17.36 points (–0.09%) to 19,281.40.
  • The 10-year Treasury note yield added 12 basis points to 4.43%.
  • The CBOE Volatility Index® (VIX) fell to 14.81, unusual on a day when stocks lost ground.

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Chegg is on the verge of collapse. Its stock is down 99% since 2021, the Wall Street Journal reported, wiping out nearly $15 billion in market value.

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DAILY UPDATE: About the Markets

Posted on November 12, 2024 by Dr. David Edward Marcinko MBA MEd CMP™

MEDICAL EXECUTIVE-POST – TODAY’S NEWSLETTER BRIEFING

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The S&P 500 closed above 6,000 for the first time. Chips fell on China trade tension. The US dollar rose. Treasuries were closed.

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Here’s where the major benchmarks ended:

  •  The SPX rose 5.81 points (0.10%) to 6,001.35; the Dow Jones Industrial Average® ($DJI) added 304.14 points (0.69%) to 44,293.13, a new all-time closing high; and the NASDAQ Composite® ($COMP) gained 11.99 points (0.06%) to 19,298.76.
  • The 10-year Treasury note yield (TNX) didn’t trade today due to the Veterans Day holiday.
  • The CBOE Volatility Index® (VIX) inched up to 15.05. 

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DAILY UPDATE: SPX Ends Just Short of 6,000

Posted on November 9, 2024 by Dr. David Edward Marcinko MBA MEd CMP™

MEDICAL EXECUTIVE-POST – TODAY’S NEWSLETTER BRIEFING

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Stocks up

  • In another daily double-digit swing, Trump Media & Technology Group jumped 15.22% after President-elect Trump announced he has no plans to sell shares of his social media company.
  • Toast isn’t just for breakfast anymore—it’s also a restaurant software company that’s making money hand over fist. Shares popped 14.93% on strong earnings news.
  • Axon Enterprise climbed 28.68% to a new all-time high thanks to an impressive quarter for the law enforcement technology company.
  • Upstart started up and stayed there, soaring 46.02% after the AI lending marketplace beat-and-raised analyst estimates last quarter.
  • Unless you’re a medical professional, you’ve probably never heard of digital platform Doximity, but doctors love it. Shares surged 34.06% on a stronger-than-expected quarter.

Stocks down

  • Pinterest plummeted after the social media site announced slowing user growth combined with lower ad pricing, a one-two combo that sent shares tumbling 14%.
  • Airbnb may have beaten revenue expectations, but shareholders punished it for missing on earnings estimates last quarter. Shares fell 8.66%.
  • Sweetgreen sank 6.01% after the fast casual eatery fell short of analyst estimates last quarter and Goldman Sachs lowered its rating from “buy” to “neutral.”
  • Redfin plunged 15.62% after it announced lower earnings than analysts expected, cut its forecasts, and revealed it’s losing ground to competitors.

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Here’s where the major benchmarks ended:

  • The SPX rose 22.44 points (0.38%) to 5,995.54 to end the week up 4.66%; the Dow Jones Industrial Average® ($DJI) added 259.65 points (0.59%) to 43,988.99 to end the week up 4.61%; and the NASDAQ Composite®($COMP) climbed 17.31 points (0.09%) to 19,286.78 to end the week up 5.74%.
  • The 10-year Treasury note yield (TNX) fell four basis points to 4.31%, but the 2-year yield added three basis points to 4.25%. Shorter-term yields, which are more closely connected to near-term rate policy, gained on longer-term ones this week.
  • The CBOE Volatility Index® (VIX) fell to 14.99, near a two-month low.

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INVESTING NEWS: Stocks, Bonds, Oil, Gold, Bitcoin and Sectors Review Post Election

Posted on November 7, 2024 by Dr. David Edward Marcinko MBA MEd CMP™

By Staff Reporters

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BREAKING NEWS!

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  • Stocks surged and stayed higher all yesterday day on news of Donald Trump’s presidential victory. The Dow rocketed over 1,350 points as soon as markets opened, and all three indexes ended the day at record highs.
  • Treasury yields have paralleled Trump’s chances of taking the White House for the last few weeks, and his election sent them soaring to over 4.46% at one point today.
  • Oil and gold both fell as the dollar rose after Trump’s win. The greenback popped on the promise of Trump’s protectionist tariff policies and the lower likelihood of the Fed cutting interest rates as fast as previously expected.
  • Bitcoin surged as traders celebrated the beginning of the new, friendlier regulatory environment that Trump promised during his campaign.

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Sector check-up

  • Financials were the biggest sector mover Wednesday, up 6.16%, hitting a new high.
  • Industrials were up 3.93% Wednesday, hitting a new high.
  • Energy was up 3.54% in the session. It’s now 4.28% from the April high.
  • Real Estate fell 2.64% during trading. It’s now 5.6% from the high. 
  • Consumer Staples fell 1.5%. The sector is 5.76% from the September high.
  • Utilities fell 1%. It’s now 5.72% from the mid-October high.
  • Duke Energy was flat over the past three months, and it is 6.3% from the October high.

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DAILY UPDATE: CVS Splits as Stocks Down in Slow Session

Posted on November 5, 2024 by Dr. David Edward Marcinko MBA MEd CMP™

MEDICAL EXECUTIVE-POST – TODAY’S NEWSLETTER BRIEFING

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Among consideration for CVS is splitting up its assets: CVS Pharmacy, pharmacy benefit manager CVS Caremark, and insurance arm Aetna. The company has reportedly been in talks with bankers about the move, Reuters reported early this month.

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STOCKS UP

  • Just as Nvidia will replace Intel, Sherwin Williams will replace Dow Inc. on the Dow (how embarrassing, getting kicked off an index you share a name with). Sherwin Williams popped 4.59%, while Dow Inc. fell 2.08%.
  • Chewy is also getting added to an index, replacing Stericycle on the MidCap 400. Shares rose 6.34%.
  • Peloton pedaled 3.59% higher on a double upgrade from Bank of America analysts, who like the bike company’s higher profit outlook and hiring of new CEO Peter Stern from Ford.
  • Yum! China, the company that operates Pizza Hut and KFC restaurants in China, climbed 7.12% after announcing that new store openings translated into better-than-expected revenue and earnings last quarter.

STOCKS DOWN

Nuclear energy stocks took a big hit today after the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission ruled that Talen Energy could not increase the amount of energy its nuclear plant in Susquehanna, PA, produces in order to power an Amazon data center. Talen fell 2.23%, Vistra Corp sank 3.18%, and Constellation Energy plummeted 12.46%.

CITE: https://tinyurl.com/2h47urt5

Here’s where the major benchmarks ended:

  • The S&P 500® index (SPX) dipped 16.11 points (–0.28%) to 5,712.69; the $DJI dropped 257.59 points (–0.61%) to 41,794.60; and the $COMP lost 59.93 points (–0.33%) to 18,179.98.
  • The 10-year Treasury note yield (TNX) fell five basis points to 4.31%.
  • The CBOE Volatility Index® (VIX)edged up to 22.11, still below last week’s peaks.

CITE: https://tinyurl.com/tj8smmes

Visualize: How private equity tangled banks in a web of debt, from the Financial Times.

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DAILY UPDATE: Ford, Peloton and Starbucks as Stocks Climb

Posted on November 2, 2024 by Dr. David Edward Marcinko MBA MEd CMP™

MEDICAL EXECUTIVE-POST – TODAY’S NEWSLETTER BRIEFING

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Essays, Opinions and Curated News in Health Economics, Investing, Business, Management and Financial Planning for Physician Entrepreneurs and their Savvy Advisors and Consultants

“Serving Almost One Million Doctors, Financial Advisors and Medical Management Consultants Daily“

A Partner of the Institute of Medical Business Advisors , Inc.

http://www.MedicalBusinessAdvisors.com

SPONSORED BY: Marcinko & Associates, Inc.

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Daily Update Provided By Staff Reporters Since 2007.
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Ford paused production of its F-150 Lightning electric truck from mid-November to early January as demand for the once-coveted EV dwindles.

Peloton named Peter Stern, the co-founder of Apple Fitness+, as its next CEO.

Starbucks is bringing back Sharpied names on cups for the first time in four years as new CEO Brian Niccol tries to shake up the struggling coffee chain.

CITE: https://www.r2library.com/Resource

STOCKS UP

  • Boeing offered striking machinists yet another new contract offer, including a 38% pay raise over the next four years. The union will vote on the contract on Monday. Shares climbed 3.54%.
  • Avis Budget motored 10.92% higher despite missing forecasts on both earnings and revenue. Shareholders celebrated the rental car company’s strong growth expectations from management and took advantage of a cheap valuation.
  • Globalstar rocketed 32.38% after the satellite communications company announced an expanded deal with Apple.
  • Charter Communications soared 11.87% after losing fewer subscribers than expected, which is like a back-handed compliment in the investing world.

STOCKS DOWN

  • Trump Media & Technology Group remains on the roller coaster, falling another 13.53% today as early exit polls show Vice President Kamala Harris with a lead in several key states.
  • Wayfair may have met earnings expectations last quarter, but the online home goods retailer also lost customers and fulfilled fewer orders. Shares fell 6.26%.
  • Super Micro Computer continued to sell off after the resignation of its financial auditor, an almost-sure sign of fraud. Shares sank another 10.51%.

CITE: https://tinyurl.com/2h47urt5

  • The S&P 500® index (SPX) rose 23.35 (0.41%) to 5,728.80 to end the week down 1.37%; the Dow Jones Industrial Average® ($DJI) added 288.73 points (0.69%) to 42,052.19 to end the week down 0.15%; and the NASDAQ Composite®($COMP) gained 144.76 points (0.80%) to 18,239.92 to end the week down 1.50%.
  • The 10-year Treasury note yield (TNX) climbed eight points to 4.36%, the highest since early July.
  • The CBOE Volatility Index® (VIX)remained elevated at 21.88.

CITE: https://tinyurl.com/tj8smmes

Visualize: How private equity tangled banks in a web of debt, from the Financial Times.

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PLEASE SUBSCRIBE: MarcinkoAdvisors@msn.com

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MOST VALUABLE: Stocks, Economic Indicators and Markets

Posted on October 29, 2024 by Dr. David Edward Marcinko MBA MEd CMP™

By Staff Reporters

SPONSOR: http://www.MarcinkoAssociates.com

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The five most valuable US companies in the S&P 500 report earnings this week, and updates on three key economic indicators are set to be released: 1. gross domestic product, 2. inflation, and 3. jobs report. Then, next week brings the election and another expected rate cut from the Federal Reserve.

CITE: https://www.r2library.com/Resource/Title/0826102549

  • Markets: All three stock indexes rose to start a week that will be filled with high-stakes data.
  • Stock spotlight: Trump Media & Technology Group gained almost 22% on Monday, following the former president and current GOP candidate’s Madison Square Garden rally. The rose means that Trump Media, which includes Truth Social, is now more valuable than Elon Musk’s X.

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DAILY UPDATE: Health-Care’s Future as Stocks Climb

Posted on October 29, 2024 by Dr. David Edward Marcinko MBA MEd CMP™

MEDICAL EXECUTIVE-POST – TODAY’S NEWSLETTER BRIEFING

***

Essays, Opinions and Curated News in Health Economics, Investing, Business, Management and Financial Planning for Physician Entrepreneurs and their Savvy Advisors and Consultants

“Serving Almost One Million Doctors, Financial Advisors and Medical Management Consultants Daily“

A Partner of the Institute of Medical Business Advisors , Inc.

http://www.MedicalBusinessAdvisors.com

SPONSORED BY: Marcinko & Associates, Inc.

***

http://www.MarcinkoAssociates.com

Daily Update Provided By Staff Reporters Since 2007.
How May We Serve You?
© Copyright Institute of Medical Business Advisors, Inc. All rights reserved. 2024

REFER A COLLEAGUE: MarcinkoAdvisors@msn.com

SPONSORSHIPS AVAILABLE: https://medicalexecutivepost.com/sponsors/

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Healthcare’s future as HSBC Innovation Banking collaborated with LINUS and HLTH to help prepare the healthcare ecosystem for the future. The Health 2035 report goes in depth with discussions between visionaries in the ecosystem and studies of young physicians’ forecasts for what the state of care will be in the year 2035. Download the report.

CITE: https://www.r2library.com/Resource

Stocks Up

  • Trump Media & Technology Group soared 21.59% following a major rally at Madison Square Garden, an appearance on Joe Rogan’s podcast, and rising chances of winning the election. Fun fact: After this latest stock surge, Trump Media is now worth almost as much as social media network X.
  • Nio surged 10.46% thanks to an upgrade from Macquerie, whose analysts believe that the EV startup could see strong growth from new vehicle launches next year.
  • Spotify has earned a spot on Wells Fargo’s top pick playlist, with analysts confident the stock could rise over 20%. Shares rose 1.27%.
  • Lower oil prices hurt energy stock, but are a big boost for companies that spend a lot on fuel. Carnival Corp rose 4.83%, Royal Caribbean Cruises climbed 1.35%, and American Airlines popped 3.42%.

Stocks Down

  • Philips floundered 15.95% after the Dutch consumer goods manufacturer missed on earnings and lowered its full-year forecast.
  • Boeing continued to fall yet another 2.79%, this time on the news that it is raising $19 billion through a stock offering in the hopes that it fends off a credit rating downgrade.
  • Oil stocks took a beating thanks to a big decline for crude prices. Diamondback Energy fell 3.36%, APA Corp. dropped 4.51%, Exxon Mobil sank 0.49%, and BP lost 1.48%.

CITE: https://tinyurl.com/2h47urt5

Here’s where the major benchmarks ended:

  • The S&P 500® index (SPX)rose15.40points (0.27%) to 5,823.52; the Dow Jones Industrial Average® ($DJI) added 273.17 points (0.65%) to 42,387.57; and the NASDAQ Composite® ($COMP) gained 48.58 points (0.26%) to 18,567.19.
  • The 10-year Treasury note yield (TNX) climbed six basis points to 4.29%, the highest close since July 9.
  • The VIX fell to 19.53.

CITE: https://tinyurl.com/tj8smmes

Visualize: How private equity tangled banks in a web of debt, from the Financial Times.

COMMENTS APPRECIATED

PLEASE SUBSCRIBE: MarcinkoAdvisors@msn.com

Thank You

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CORPORATE EARNINGS: Quarterly Reports

Posted on October 28, 2024 by Dr. David Edward Marcinko MBA MEd CMP™

By Staff Reporters

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Peak earnings season: Five of the Magnificent Seven Stocks will be among the 181 companies reporting their earnings this week. Alphabet is in the Mag Seven lead-off spot on Tuesday, Microsoft and Meta step to the plate on Wednesday, and Apple and Amazon rounding out the lineup and this baseball metaphor on Thursday. These companies account for almost 25% of the S&P 500, which is up 40% over the past year and not far off its record closing number from earlier this month. But, the approaching election, it could be a volatile week in the stock markets.

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  • Markets: Stocks are currently driving the narrative on Wall Street. Last week, bonds sold off in a big way (driving yields to their highest level since July) in a sign investors are dialing back expectations of more aggressive rate cuts from the Federal Reserve.
  • Stocks nevertheless handled the bond volatility with aplomb, and with help from Tesla’s 22% one-day rise, the NASDAQ is sitting within 2% of its record high.

CITE: https://www.r2library.com/Resource/Title/0826102549

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Challenging Investment Rules and Key Investor Traits

Posted on October 27, 2024 by Dr. David Edward Marcinko MBA MEd CMP™

By Vitaliy Katenselson CFA

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Today, we’re diving into two thought-provoking questions:

1. What’s a famous investment rule I don’t agree with?
2. Which key characteristics should a good investor have?

1. A Famous Investment Rule I Don’t Agree With: “Buy and Hold”

Buy and hold becomes a religion during bull markets. Then, holding a stock because you bought it is often rewarded through higher and higher valuations. There’s a Pavlovian bull market reinforcement – every time you don’t sell (hold) a stock, it goes higher.

Buying is a decision. So is holding, but it should not be a religion but a decision. The value of any company is the present value of its cash flows. When the present value of cash flows (per share) is less than the price of the stock, the stock should not be “held” but sold.

Warren Buffett is looked upon as the deity of buy and hold.

Look at Coca Cola when it hit $40 in 1999. Its earnings power at the time was about $0.80. It was trading at 50 times earnings. It was significantly overvalued, considering that most of the growth for this company was in the past.

Fast-forward almost a quarter of a century – literally a generation. Today the stock is at $60. It took more than a decade to reclaim its 1999 high. Today, Coke’s earnings power is around $1.50–1.90. Earnings have stagnated for over a decade. If you did not sell the stock in 1999, you collected some dividends, not a lot but some. The stock is still trading at 30–40x earnings. Unless they discover that Coke cures diabetes (not causes it), its earnings will not move much. It’s a mature business with significant health headwinds against it.

“Long-term” and “buy-and-hold” investing are often confused.

People should not own stocks unless they have a long-term time horizon. Long-term investing is an attitude, an analytical approach. When you build a discounted cash flow model, you are looking decades ahead. However, this doesn’t mean that you should stop analyzing the company’s valuation and fundamentals after you buy the stock, as they may change and affect your expected return. After you put in a lot of analytical work and buy the stock, you should not simply switch off your brain and become a mindless buy-and-hold investor.

This doesn’t mean you shouldn’t be patient, which I’ll discuss next; but holding, not selling, a stock is a decision.

2. Key Characteristics of a Good Investor

I’m going to sound a bit more preachy than usual, but it’s very difficult to answer this question in any other way.

You need three Ps – passion, patience, process.

Passion

Investing is not a 9-to-5 job; it’s a 24/7 adventure. Unlike flipping burgers or processing insurance claims, where you can clock in at 9 AM, fall into a stupor, and then reawaken at 5 PM when you clock out.

This should be your test: If you catch yourself treating investing as a 9-to-5 job, then you have little passion for it.

If this is the case, don’t do it (this probably applies to any choice of a profession). You don’t stand a chance against people for whom investing is a never-ending puzzle to be solved on their life’s journey. All of my investment friends are dripping with passion for investing; they are obsessed with it. None of them are in it only for the money.

You won’t last long in this profession if you’re not passionate about stocks.

Patience

Investing is like real life – the connection between effort and result is nonlinear. It is very loose.

You may be making all of the right rational decisions: You are buying stocks that lie within your EQ/IQ spectrum, and they are significantly undervalued, but the market simply doesn’t care. It just keeps sending your stocks down. To make things even more frustrating, while your stocks are declining, speculators who treat the stock market as a craps table at Caesars Palace are killing it, making money hand over fist. It’s painful. It is excruciatingly painful if you have the wrong client base.

This is where patience comes in. My father told me this story, which happened right before I was born.

My family lived in Murmansk, a city 125 miles north of the Arctic Circle in northwest Russia. My mom went to give birth to my brothers and me in Saratov, a city in central Russia, about 1200 miles from Murmansk. She wanted to be closer to her parents. My father could not leave work, so he stayed in Murmansk.

A few weeks before I was born, he went to visit his best friend, Alexander. He told him that he was worried about my mom and the birth. His friend told him something that I remember to this day (with a chuckle): “Naum, you did your part; you cannot go back and correct what you did. Now you just have to wait.”

Investing is patience punctuated by decisions.

As the French mathematician Blaise Pascal said, “All of humanity’s problems stem from man’s inability to sit quietly in a room alone.”

One more thought here: I try to take the temperature of my emotions and the mental activity of my brain. When I find myself overheating, with the stock market occupying my entire brain, I forcibly disconnect and unplug myself from it. The quality of my thoughts and decisions when my brain is overheating is likely to be low. So, I go for a walk in the park, read a fiction book, go see a movie, or visit an art museum.

Process

Managing someone else’s money is an incredible responsibility, which you may not fully appreciate during bull markets. But sideways and bear markets will remind you quickly.

I don’t want to over-glorify what we do – we are not curing cancer or saving people from burning buildings. But IMA clients entrust us with their life savings and tell me, “Vitaliy, please don’t screw it up.”

My decisions may determine whether our clients get to retire, pay for their medical expenses, or help their kids buy houses.

Staying rational when the world around you is melting up with greed or melting down in fear isn’t a capacity that one accidentally stumbles upon. You engineer it through a series of small, repeatable decisions – your investment process.

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