BOARD CERTIFICATION EXAM STUDY GUIDES Lower Extremity Trauma
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Posted on August 27, 2023 by Dr. David Edward Marcinko MBA MEd CMP™
By Staff Reporters
Jerome Powell: Speaking at the Jackson Hole Symposium, an annual meeting of central bankers from around the globe at a former Wild West outpost, the FOMC chair said inflation “remains too high” and “we are prepared to raise rates further if appropriate” and to keep them high. So, why didn’t the stock market nose-dive like it did after last year’s similarly hawkish Powell speech? It helps that inflation has come down considerably since then (which Powell acknowledged) and that he nodded to the dangers of the Fed doing too much as well as too little.
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Rite Aid is preparing to file for bankruptcy in the face of costly lawsuits over its sales of opioids, the Wall Street Journal reports.
Wegovy, the weight-loss drug, also helps prevent heart failure, its maker, Novo Nordisk, said after a clinical trial.
Wells Fargoagreed to pay $35 million to settle the SEC’s claims that it overcharged fees on nearly 11,000 investment advisory accounts—claims it neither admits nor denies.
Posted on August 13, 2023 by Dr. David Edward Marcinko MBA MEd CMP™
By Staff Reporters
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Markets: The NASDAQ is fading and closing lower for the second straight week for the first time all year.
Semiconductor stocks dragged the index down, but investors were also a bit fidgety over an inflation report that showed producer prices grew faster than expected last month.
Posted on July 3, 2023 by Dr. David Edward Marcinko MBA MEd CMP™
By Staff Reporters
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Investors are coming out of the mid-year investing season enthused and thanks to an Artificial Intelligence fueled stock market rally that turned into an everything rally.
The NASDAQ posted its best H1 since 1983, and the S&P 500 had its best first-half performance since 2019.
But, don’t expect Wall Street fireworks for the next few days. The US stock market will close early today and shut down tomorrow for Independence Day.
Modern Portfolio Theory approaches investing by examining the complete market and the full economy. MPT places a great emphasis on the correlation between investments.
DEFINITION:
Correlation is a measure of how frequently one event tends to happen when another event happens. High positive correlation means two events usually happen together – high SAT scores and getting through college for instance. High negative correlation means two events tend not to happen together – high SATs and a poor grade record.
No correlation means the two events are independent of one another. In statistical terms two events that are perfectly correlated have a “correlation coefficient” of 1; two events that are perfectly negatively correlated have a correlation coefficient of -1; and two events that have zero correlation have a coefficient of 0.
Correlation has been used over the past twenty years by institutions and financial advisors to assemble portfolios of moderate risk. In calculating correlation, a statistician would examine the possibility of two events happening together, namely:
If the probability of A happening is 1/X;
And the probability of B happening is 1/Y; then
The probability of A and B happening together is (1/X) times (1/Y), or 1/(X times Y).
There are several laws of correlation including;
Combining assets with a perfect positive correlation offers no reduction in portfolio risk. These two assets will simply move in tandem with each other.
Combining assets with zero correlation (statistically independent) reduces the risk of the portfolio. If more assets with uncorrelated returns are added to the portfolio, significant risk reduction can be achieved.
Combing assets with a perfect negative correlation could eliminate risk entirely. This is the principle with “hedging strategies”. These strategies are discussed later in the book.
In the real world, negative correlations are very rare
Most assets maintain a positive correlation with each other. The goal of a prudent investor is to assemble a portfolio that contains uncorrelated assets. When a portfolio contains assets that possess low correlations, the upward movement of one asset class will help offset the downward movement of another. This is especially important when economic and market conditions change.
As a result, including assets in your portfolio that are not highly correlated will reduce the overall volatility (as measured by standard deviation) and may also increase long-term investment returns. This is the primary argument for including dissimilar asset classes in your portfolio. Keep in mind that this type of diversification does not guarantee you will avoid a loss. It simply minimizes the chance of loss.
In the table provided by Ibbotson, the average correlation between the five major asset classes is displayed. The lowest correlation is between the U.S. Treasury Bonds and the EAFE (international stocks). The highest correlation is between the S&P 500 and the EAFE; 0.77 or 77 percent. This signifies a prominent level of correlation that has grown even larger during this decade. Low correlations within the table appear most with U.S. Treasury Bills.
A collateralized debt obligation (CDO) is a type of structured asset-backed security (ABS). Originally developed as instruments for the corporate debt markets, after 2002 CDOs became vehicles for refinancing mortgage-backed securities (MBS).
Like other private label securities backed by assets, a CDO can be thought of as a promise to pay investors in a prescribed sequence, based on the cash flow the CDO collects from the pool of bonds or other assets it owns. Distinctively, CDO credit risk is typically assessed based on a probability of default (PD) derived from ratings on those bonds or assets.
A CMO is a debt security backed by mortgages. These mortgage pools are usually separated into different maturity classes called tranches (from the French word for “slice”). The securities were issued by private issuers, as well as the Federal Home Loan Mortgage Corporation (Freddie Mac). As the mortgages were usually government-guaranteed, CMOs usually carried AAA ratings until their current financial meltdown. The early versions of CMOs were known as “plain vanilla,” but recent developments gave us PACs (planned amortization certificates) and TACs (targeted amortization certificates); among too many others. They were all variations on how principal repayments in advance of maturity date were treated.
Posted on April 11, 2023 by Dr. David Edward Marcinko MBA MEd CMP™
By Staff Reporters
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Starwood Capital CEO Barry Sternlicht, who has a net worth of $4.6 billion, says inflation is going to drop—and it’s going to drop hard. In an interview with CNBC’s Squawk Box, Sternlicht was asked what he’d say in response to JPMorgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon’s annual letter to shareholders, in which Dimon writes that current economic conditions “create more risk and potentially higher inflation,” and higher rate hikes.
However, after saying he’s a big fan of Dimon and that he runs “probably one of the best banks in the world,” Sternlicht clarified to CNBC that “we don’t agree on everything.”
The following is a round-up of yesterday’s market activity:
The S&P 500® Index was up 4.09 (0.1%) at 4109.11; the Dow Jones industrial average was up 101.23 (0.3%) at 33,586.52; the NASDAQ Composite was down 3.6 at 12,084.36.
The 10-year Treasury yield was up about 4 basis points at 3.419%.
CBOEs Volatility Index was up 0.54 at 18.94.
Energy and transportation were the strongest-performing S&P 500 sectors, while communications services was the biggest laggard. WTI crude oil futures fell slightly but remained near two-month highs posted last week.
Gold futures fell sharply for the second session in a row. The U.S. dollar index jumped to its strongest level in nearly two weeks.
Posted on April 10, 2023 by Dr. David Edward Marcinko MBA MEd CMP™
Types & Definitions
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Financial Investing risk is any of various types of risk associated with financing, including financial transactions that include company loans in risk of default. Often it is understood to include only downside risk, meaning the potential for financial loss and uncertainty about its extent.
Although broad investing risks can be quickly summarized as “the failure to achieve spending and inflation-adjusted growth goals,” individual assets may face any number of other subsidiary risks:
Call risk – The risk, faced by a holder of a callable bond that a bond issuer will take advantage of the callable bond feature and redeem the issue prior to maturity. This means the bondholder will receive payment on the value of the bond and, in most cases, will be reinvesting in a less favorable environment (one with a lower interest rate)
Capital risk – The risk an investor faces that he or she may lose all or part of the principal amount invested.
Commodity risk – The threat that a change in the price of a production input will adversely impact a producer who uses that input.
Company risk – The risk that certain factors affecting a specific company may cause its stock to change in price in a different way from stocks as a whole.
Concentration risk – Probability of loss arising from heavily lopsided exposure to a particular group of counterparties
Counterparty risk – The risk that the other party to an agreement will default.
Credit risk – The risk of loss of principal or loss of a financial reward stemming from a borrower’s failure to repay a loan or otherwise meet a contractual obligation.
Currency risk – A form of risk that arises from the change in price of one currency against another.
Deflation risk – A general decline in prices, often caused by a reduction in the supply of money or credit.
Economic risk – the likelihood that an investment will be affected by macroeconomic conditions such as government regulation, exchange rates, or political stability.
Hedging risk – Making an investment to reduce the risk of adverse price movements in an asset.
Inflation risk – The uncertainty over the future real value (after inflation) of your investment.
Interest rate risk – Risk to the earnings or market value of a portfolio due to uncertain future interest rates.
Legal risk – risk from uncertainty due to legal actions or uncertainty in the applicability or interpretation of contracts, laws or regulations.
Liquidity risk – The risks stemming from the lack of marketability of an investment that cannot be bought or sold quickly enough to prevent or minimize a loss.
Posted on April 2, 2023 by Dr. David Edward Marcinko MBA MEd CMP™
All about the Medical Executive-PostBusiness Model
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One of the questions we receive most often from readers of the Medical Executive-Post is how can we “afford” to give away so much content for free. Or stated another way, “how do we get paid for all of this?”
The simple answer is that we know many (or even most) of you will simply take the ideas that we share and implement them yourself. Do-It-YourSelfers can always simply purchase our texts, books and peer reviewed handbooks redacted in more than a thousand, medical, law, business and graduate schools, as well as the Library of Congress,Institute of Health and Library of Congress.
On the other hand, some of you will realize you need some additional help.
For example:
Maybe as a financial advisor you’re “stuck” in your financial planning business and recognize that some outside assistance is necessary to help you get to the next level of niche specificity thru our Certified Medical Planner™ chartered certification program designation. Helping physicians of all specialty types in a fiduciary focused manner is the proverbial Win-Win for all concerned.
OR, perhaps you are seeking a glossary of terms and definitions in heath economics, finance, accounting, insurance, managed care, health information technology and security; found in our Health Dictionary Series Wiki Project? Free and print versions are available.
OR, as a doctor maybe your medical practice is growing so much you just hit a wall where you don’t have time to do it all for your patients. After all, with only “so much” time available every day and week, it’s vital to delegate or outsource anything that isn’t really core to your practice and management skill set.
OR, maybe you are even starting, buying or selling your medical practice and need our financial and valuation services. Part (1) – Part (2) – Part (3) Financial, estate, investing and retirement planning services are also available.
OR, you may just need a second informed opinion about a topic not listed; there are a myriad of issues to consider in the competitive ecosystem today.
So, in the meantime, I hope that the ME-P content continues to be helpful food for thought, and perhaps we’ll have an opportunity to cross paths soon at a future conferences or podcasts. Feel free to invite us to speak at your own seminar/podcast online V-log, as well.
TOPIC: Financial Designations and Certifications [Alphabet Soup of Industry Obfuscation and Self-Promotion, or Real Gravitas – You Decide?]
EXCERPT: “Until recently, most financial advisors were regulated by the NASD, the National Association of Securities Dealers. Now the Financial Industry Regulatory Authority or FINRA is the largest non-governmental regulator for all securities firms doing business in the United States. It is a self-regulatory agency comprised of the nation’s brokerage firms. Upon completion of a required exam the FINRA will issue a variety of licenses. The most common are the Series 6, 7, and 24.
The Series 6 is essentially a license to sell packaged products, namely mutual funds. It is most commonly held by insurance agents and bank representatives. It is considered a very easy test. Holding such a license allows the holder to collect commission income through its member firm.
The Series 7 exam is a bit more difficult and includes issues relating to individual securities such as stocks, bonds and limited partnership interests. The pass rate is lower than the Series 6. The probable culprit is the extensive questioning on margin and options, topics most are unfamiliar with prior to entering the securities business.
The Series 24 covers issues of compliance and supervision and is required of Branch Managers of brokerage firms. All registered representatives (the proper name for a broker) must be supervised by someone with a Series 24, also known as a principal’s license.
Checking the background of a registered representative, a branch manager or a member firm is easily done through NASD and/or FINRA Regulation, Inc. NASDR/FINRA maintains the Central Registration Depository (CRD). The CRD can be checked for a description of a disclosed event by phone or by Internet. One should request information on an advisor’s firm as well as the individual. A reputable advisor at a disreputable firm has its own set of potentially dangerous implications.
Regardless of the above, these tests produce licenses to sell financial products. They are not educational achievements. There is virtually no academic barrier to entry for them. Stock-brokers today – hate the term – and prefer “financial advisor”; yet the term has no real meaning other than as a sales license.
Some are college graduates, and beyond; while some other experts argue that too many are not!”
Hence, the need to “raise the bar to fiduciary accountability with deep knowledge of healthcare modernity.”
Your thoughts and comments on this ME-P are appreciated. Feel free to review our top-left column, and top-right sidebar materials, links, URLs and related websites, too. Then, subscribe to the ME-P. It is fast, free and secure.
Speaker: If you need a moderator or speaker for an upcoming event, Dr. David E. Marcinko; MBA – Publisher-in-Chief of the Medical Executive-Post – is available for seminar or speaking engagements. Contact: MarcinkoAdvisors@msn.com
OUR OTHER PRINT BOOKS AND RELATED INFORMATION SOURCES:
Posted on January 15, 2023 by Dr. David Edward Marcinko MBA MEd CMP™
By Staff Reporters
Many investors were happy to wave goodbye to 2022, Wall Street’s worst year since 2008. The S&P finished down 19.4%, while the tech centered NASDAQ shed 33.1%. The blue-chip focused Dow Jones did better, losing just 8.8% across the year. Unfortunately, a number of senior investment bankers predict 2023 could bring more stock market woes. Most recently, in fact, Morgan Stanley Chief U.S. Equity Strategist & Chief Investment Officer, Michael Wilson, said he thought the S&P 500 could drop by another 22% in 2023.
Wilson wrote in a note this week that next year’s losses could be more significant than many are expecting. According to Bloomberg, Wilson thinks a peak in inflation would be “very negative for profitability.” He added, “The consensus could be right directionally, but wrong in terms of magnitude.”
Some analysts think that when inflation peaks, the Federal Reserve will ease up on its aggressive rate hikes and the stock market will recover. But Wilson argues this is only part of the picture. He thinks falling prices would have a knock-on effect on company profits, and the subsequent drop in margins would outweigh any benefit from a change in the Fed’s stance.
Wilson also alerted clients to the risk that companies would be caught “off guard” by a combination of falling demand and a catch up in supply. Supply chain issues, caused by a mix of COVID-19 lock downs, labor shortages, and other factors, have contributed to price increases and had a negative impact on production. If the supply chain starts to recover at the same time as recession-induced drops in consumption levels, he thinks the stock market could fall further.
Posted on January 6, 2023 by Dr. David Edward Marcinko MBA MEd CMP™
By Staff Reporters
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Here are eight things to keep in mind as you prepare to file your 2022 taxes
1. Income tax brackets shifted somewhat
There are still seven tax rates, but the income ranges (tax brackets) for each rate shifted slightly to account for inflation. For 2022, the following rates and income ranges apply:
Taxable income brackets
Tax rate
Single filers
Married couples filing jointly (and qualifying widows or widowers)
10%
$0 to $10,275
$0 to $20,550
12%
$10,276 to $41,775
$20,551 to $83,550
22%
$41,776 to $89,075
$83,551 to $178,150
24%
$89,076 to $170,050
$178,151 to $340,100
32%
$170,051 to $215,950
$340,101 to $431,900
35%
$215,951 to $539,900
$431,901 to $647,850
37%
$539,901 or more
$647,851 or more
2. The standard deduction increased somewhat
After an inflation adjustment, the 2022 standard deduction increases to $12,950 for single filers and married couples filing separately and to $19,400 for single heads of household, who are generally unmarried with one or more dependents. For married couples filing jointly, the standard deduction rises to $25,900.
3. Itemized deductions remain essentially the same
For most filers, taking the higher standard deduction is more practical and saves the hassle of keeping track of receipts. But if you have enough tax-deductible expenses, you might benefit from itemizing.
State and local taxes: The deduction for state and local income taxes, property taxes, and real estate taxes is capped at $10,000.
Mortgage interest deduction: The mortgage interest deduction is limited to $750,000 of indebtedness. But people who had $1,000,000 of home mortgage debt before December 16, 2017 will still be able to deduct the interest on that loan.
Medical expenses: Only medical expenses that exceed 7.5% of adjusted gross income (AGI) can be deducted in 2022.
Charitable donations: The deductions for charitable donations are not as generous as they were in 2021. In 2022, the annual income tax deduction limits for gifts to public charities1 are 30% of AGI for contributions of non-cash assets—if held for more than one year—and 60% of AGI for contributions of cash.
Miscellaneous deductions: No miscellaneous itemized deductions are allowed.
4. IRA contribution limits remain the same and 401(k) limits are slightly higher
The traditional IRA and Roth contribution limits in 2022 remain the same as the prior year. Individuals can contribute up to $6,000 to an IRA, and those age 50 and older also qualify to make an additional $1,000 catch-up contribution. If you’re able to max out your IRA, consider doing so—you may qualify to deduct some or all of your contribution.
However, the 2022 contribution limits for 401(k) accounts have increased to $20,500. If you’re age 50 or older, you qualify to make an additional $6,500 catch-up contribution for this tax year as well.
5. You can save a bit more in your health savings account (HSA)
For 2022, the maximum you can contribute to an HSA is $3,650 for an individual (up $50 from 2021) and $7,300 for a family (up $100). People age 55 and older can contribute an extra $1,000 catch-up contribution.
To be eligible for an HSA, you must be enrolled in a high-deductible health plan (which usually has lower premiums as well). Learn more about the benefits of an HSA.
6. The Child Tax Credit is lower after a one-year bump
Tax credits, which reduce the tax you owe dollar for dollar, are normally better than deductions, which reduce how much of your income is subject to tax.
In 2021, the American Rescue Plan Act (ARPA) temporarily enlarged the Child Tax Credit. But in 2022, the credit returns to $2,000 per child age sixteen or younger. The credit is also subject to a phase-out starting at $400,000 for joint filers and $200,000 for single filers. For other qualified dependents, you can claim a $500 credit.
7. The alternative minimum tax (AMT) exemption is higher
Until the AMT exemption enacted by the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act expires in 2025, the AMT will continue to affect mostly households with incomes over $500,000. For 2022, the AMT exemptions are $75,900 for single filers and $118,100 for married taxpayers filing jointly. The phase-out thresholds are $1,079,800 for married taxpayers filing a joint return and $539,900 for all other taxpayers. (Once your income for the AMT hits the phase-out threshold, your AMT exemption begins to phase out at 25 cents for every dollar over the threshold.)
8. The estate tax exemption is even higher
The estate and gift tax exemption, which is indexed to inflation, rises to $12.06 million for 2022. But the now-higher exemption is set to expire at the end of 2025, meaning it could be essentially cut in half at that time if Congress doesn’t act.
The annual gift exclusion, which allows you to give money to your loved ones each year without incurring any tax liability or using up any of your lifetime estate and gift tax exemption, increases to $16,000 per recipient (up $1,000 from 2021).
Don’t get caught
Finally, if you’re age 72 or older, make sure you’ve taken your required minimum distribution (RMD) from your retirement accounts before the end of the year or else you face a 50% penalty on any undistributed funds (unless it’s your first RMD, in which case you can wait until April 1, 2023).
Silvergate Capital Corporation reported a sharp drop in fourth-quarter crypto-related deposits on Thursday as investors spooked by the collapse of FTX pulled out more than $8 billion in deposits, sending shares down more than 42%. The crypto-focused bank also said it would cut its workforce by 40%, or about 200 employees, as it tries to rein in costs amid a deepening industry downturn. Its stock was last trading at $12.55.
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U.S. stocks were lower as the markets continued to speculate as to how long the Fed will keep its monetary policy tight. Yesterday’s minutes from the Fed’s December meeting suggested that the Central Bank will remain aggressive. Jobs data pointed to a tight labor market, as the ADP Employment Change Report came in higher than expected, and jobless claims were lower than anticipated, which seemed to be solidifying expectations of further rate hikes. Services sector data also came out, with output being revised higher but continuing to depict contraction.
Treasury yields were mixed, and the U.S. dollar rallied following the data, while crude oil prices rose, and gold dropped.
Equity news offered varying results, as Exxon Mobil offered mixed Q4 guidance, T-Mobile US’ phone customers topped forecasts, Constellation Brands missed earnings estimates and lowered guidance, and Conagra Brands topped quarterly estimates.
Finally, Asian stocks finished mostly higher, and European stocks were mixed following a three-day winning streak, as the markets digested the Fed’s minutes and amid optimism regarding China’s reopening.
Posted on November 13, 2022 by Dr. David Edward Marcinko MBA MEd CMP™
Should Active Investors Expect to Lose?
By Rick Kahler MSFS CFP®
When it comes to investing, it’s a losing proposition to try and be anything better than average. Even if you are a doctor.
I was recently reminded of this important investing precept when I attended a presentation by Ken French, a noted professor of finance at Dartmouth College.
Dr. French Speaks
“The theory is institutions are smarter than ‘dumb’ individual and can add value,”
said French.
“That is simply not true.”
His research has found that institutions are no better at trying to beat the market than individual investors. When you pay someone to do better than the market, French told us,
“You should expect to lose. It’s really hard to identify the great managers. You are wasting your time and money trying to beat the market.”
If there’s no point in trying to beat the market through “active” investing, what is the best way to invest? Through “passive” investing, that accepts average market returns. You need to reduce expenses, diversify your portfolio into index funds of various asset classes, minimize taxes, and exhibit discipline.
Reduce expenses. Passive investing generally costs around 0.20% a year in fees, compared to around 1.35% for active investing.
Diversify into index funds. Simply select an index in the asset classes you want to hold. The inherent strategy of the index will determine when to buy and sell. For example, the inherent strategy of the S&P 500 is to own a fraction of the largest 500 companies in the US. Every June, those companies that fell out of the top 500 largest are sold and those that made it into the top 500 are purchased.
Minimize taxes. The limited buying and selling of passive investing tends to reduce investment-related taxes.
Exhibit discipline. Relying on the inherent strategy of an index fund puts some distance between you and buying/selling decisions, making it easier to maintain your investment discipline during market fluctuations.
You may be thinking that, if “passive” is the way to go, you might as well make things even simpler. Why not just put your retirement money in the bank and forget it? While you can certainly do that, the results may be disastrous. If you want more than just Social Security for your retirement, you need your money to grow.
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Considerations
In 1913, nine cents bought a quart of milk. In 1963, the same nine cents bought a small glass of milk. In 2015, nine cents bought seven tablespoons of milk. Clearly, putting money under the mattress doesn’t work for the long term. The culprit of the declining purchasing power of that nine cents is inflation. The moral of this story is to make sure your money grows at least as fast as inflation. That requires investing it.
Example:
It would require $13 today to equal the purchasing power that $1 provided in 1926. Had you put one dollar in the bank in 1926, you would have $21 today. Having invested the dollar in long-term bonds would give you $132. However, invested in the S&P 500 Index (stocks), you would have $5,386.
A Mix
Does that mean you should invest all of your retirement assets in stocks? If you are one year old, probably so. If you are 60 years old, probably not. For most of us, a mixture of index funds that include many asset classes—such as global stocks, global bonds, global real estate, and commodities—is the best strategy.
Assessment
Research supports the value of diversified passive investing as long-term strategy. According to a study by Dalbar, Inc., average passive investors earn 3% to 4% more annually than average active investors. Over time, that makes a huge difference.
Conclusion
Your thoughts and comments on this ME-P are appreciated. Feel free to review our top-left column, and top-right sidebar materials, links, URLs and related websites, too. Then, subscribe to the ME-P. It is fast, free and secure.
Speaker: If you need a moderator or speaker for an upcoming event, Dr. David E. Marcinko; MBA – Publisher-in-Chief of the Medical Executive-Post – is available for seminar or speaking engagements. Contact: MarcinkoAdvisors@msn.com
OUR OTHER PRINT BOOKS AND RELATED INFORMATION SOURCES:
Posted on November 11, 2022 by Dr. David Edward Marcinko MBA MEd CMP™
By Staff Reporters
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Unlike banks, the New York Stock Exchange doesn’t close on Veterans Day. Wall Street will have a full day of trading, and operate as usual on Veteran’s Day. Bond markets, which work with the federal government, will also be closed.
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U.S. stocks closed sharply higher yesterday, with all three major indexes posting their best day of gains since 2020 as investors cheered signs that U.S. inflation finally might be headed lower.
For example, the Dow Jones Industrial Average shot up about 1,198 points, or 3.7%, ending near 33,712, marking its highest level since August and its best daily percentage gain since May 2020, according to Dow Jones Market Data. The S&P 500 index gained 5.5% and the NASDAQ Composite Index closed up 7.4%, their best daily percentage increases since 2020. The sharp rally on Wall Street was led by gains in technology and communication shares, segments of the S&P 500 that booked massive gains of about 8.3% and 6.3%, respectively, according to FactSet.
Buyers came out in force after the release of October’s consumer-price index showed a 7.7% annual rate of inflation, down from 9.1% this summer, while spurring hopes that the Federal Reserve might be making headway in its fight to bring inflation down to its 2% target.
That took some of the attention off the ongoing woes at crypto exchange FTX, with bitcoin down near a 2-year low. The 10-year Treasury rate also dropped to about 3.8% Thursday, down from a 4.2% high in October ahead of the three-day weekend for the U.S. bond market, which will remain closed on Friday for Veterans Day. U.S. stock exchanges, however, will remain open Friday.
The lowering of the book or market value of the shares of a company’s stock as a result of more shares outstanding. A company’s initial registration may include more shares than are initially issued when the company goes public for the first time.
Later, an issue of more stock by a company (called a “primary offering,” distinguished from the “initial public offering”) dilutes the existing shares outstanding.
Also, earnings-per-share calculations are said to be “fully diluted” when all common stock equivalents (convertible securities, rights, and warrants) are included. “Fully diluted” numbers are used in analysis when there is a likelihood of conversion or exercise of rights and warrants.
Posted on October 11, 2022 by Dr. David Edward Marcinko MBA MEd CMP™
By Staff Reporters
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Investors are eyeing this week’s Consumer Price Index report and sifting through corporate earnings reports, which could both bring bearish news to the market.
Morgan Stanley’s Mike Wilson just told CNBC he believed earnings would be a mixed bag, and JPMorgan warned investors that stocks could see another 5% sell-off on Thursday if September inflation clocks in above 8.3%.
Posted on September 30, 2022 by Dr. David Edward Marcinko MBA MEd CMP™
ME-P Special Report
By Lon Jefferies MBA CFP®
WHO Are the Best Predictors of Stock Market Performance?
Every day CNBC airs dozens of “financial professionals” making market forecasts. Similarly, every financial publication has multiple pieces regarding the future of the stock market. With so much information, how is it possible to determine who is worth listening to and what information to incorporate into your investment strategy?
Dropping Names
Without dropping any names, I’d suggest that the more confident a market pundit is about his or her prediction, the more you should question their advice.
People who make strong, unwavering forecasts are interesting to watch and appear as intelligent, appealing leaders whose advice is worth following. Meanwhile, people who frequently say phrases such as “it depends,” “maybe,” or even “I don’t know” don’t seem to be adding much value and don’t appear to be any more knowledgeable than the average investor. Yet, I’d suggest you tune out the stanch forecaster pounding his fist on the table as he speaks and rather listen closely to the individual who is less willing to make firm predictions.
Stock market performance
Stock market performance is clearly not a result of any singular factor such as whether or not companies will generate more profits than expected. If this was the case, making market predictions would be easy – one could simply guess the answer to be yes or no and have a 50% chance of being correct. Rather, hitting profit targets is only point A on a long list of factors impacting stock market performance.
Point B may be whether or not the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates during their next meeting. Again, our market forecaster could guess yes or no to this question and have a 50% chance of being correct. However, when considering both factors A and B, now our market forecaster has to be right twice on two issues where there is only a 50% probability of being correct on each. Simple math tells us there is only a 25% chance that this will occur (50% x 50% = 25%).
Point C may be whether the republicans or the democrats win the 2016 election. Again, there is a 50% chance of either possibility. Now there are three factors in play, each with a 50% probability, so the probability that the market pundit will get all three factors correct is 12.5% (50% x 50% x 50% = 12.5%).
Point D may be whether the US dollars strengthens or weakens when compared to other currencies. Again, there is a 50% chance of getting this right, so when we consider all four factors, there is now a 6.25% chance of getting it right (50% x 50% x 50% x 50% = 6.25%).
The equation
There are hundreds of factors that go into this equation. Will Greece have another economic crisis? Will the price of oil go up or down? Will a war breakout with Russia? This is exactly why forecasting market performance is so difficult!
For this reason, the people who make the best forecasters are people who say phrases such as “perhaps,” “however,” and “on the other hand” a lot. Doing so illustrates that the individual has looked at the situation from a lot of different perspectives and realizes that everything may not go according to plan. These types of people also tend to admit when they are wrong more willingly and update their analysis utilizing the latest information available, even if the new information doesn’t reflect what they previously anticipated. Their thought process is likely: “I got point A wrong, so I need to adjust my thinking on point B, which will have an impact on point C, so how does this change my perspective on point D.” We’ll call this a point-A-to-point-B-to-point-C-to-point-D mentality.
By comparison, the forecaster who makes the strong prediction while staring into the camera likely utilizes more of a point-A-to-point-D mentality. They are less likely to admit that there are more factors affecting market performance than can be managed, and less likely to incorporate new information that doesn’t coincide with his previous prediction when making forward-looking forecasts. Their thought process is likely: “I may have gotten point A wrong, but that doesn’t matter. All that matters is point D and I believe I got that right when making my prediction.” This approach is obviously less logic-based than the approach taken by the forecaster who knows there are too many factors to enable an individual to make a confident prediction.
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Assessment
While people who make confident predictions regarding market performance are entertaining to watch and provide advice that is simple to follow (he said buy, so I’ll buy), their advice is not likely to be any more accurate than other market pundits. In fact, if they are unwilling to admit when they get any potential factor concerning market performance wrong, their advice may be more damaging then useful. By comparison, market forecasters who utilize phrases such as “however,” “it is hard to say,” and “I’m not sure” provide advice that may come off as unhelpful or impossible to follow, but it is these people who provide logic-based nuggets of information that are likely to benefit your investment portfolio.
ABOUT
Lon Jefferies, a Certified Financial Planner™ (CFP), is a fee-only financial advisor and trusted fiduciary at Net Worth Advisory Group in Salt Lake City, Utah. He is dedicated to providing comprehensive financial planning and investment management on a fee-only basis.
Conclusion
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I was having lunch with a close friend of mine. He mentioned that he had accumulated a significant sum of money and did not know what to do with it. It was sitting in bonds, and inflation was eating its purchasing power at a very rapid rate.
He is a dentist and had originally thought about expanding his business, but a shortage of labor and surging wages turned expanding into a risky and low-return investment. He complained that the stock market was extremely expensive. I agreed.*
Posted on September 29, 2022 by Dr. David Edward Marcinko MBA MEd CMP™
Re-Thinking Strategic Allocation
[By Dr. David Edward Marcinko MBA]
Many successful physician investors, retirement account managers or endowment fund administrators will establish a “strategic” allocation policy that is intended to guide long-term (greater than one-year) investment decisions.
Thinking Long Term?
This strategic allocation reflects the endowment’s thinking regarding the existence of perceived fundamental shifts in the market. Most endowments will also establish a target range or band for each asset class. The day-to-day managers then have the flexibility to make tactical decisions for a given class so long as they stay within the target range.
Terms
The term “tactical” when used in the context of investment strategy refers to the investor or manager’s ability to take advantage of short-term (under one year) market anomalies such as pricing discrepancies between different sectors or across different styles.
Assessment
Historically, tactical decisions with respect to asset allocation were derided as “market timing.” However, market timing implies moving outside of the target ranges whereas tactical decision making simply addresses the opportunistic deployment of funds within the asset class target range.
So, what do you think?
Conclusion
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SE OUR OTHER PRINT BOOKS AND RELATED INFORMATION SOURCES
Posted on August 6, 2022 by Dr. David Edward Marcinko MBA MEd CMP™
Dividends bring tangible and intangible benefits
By Vitaliy Katsenelson CFA
You can also listen to the article here, or by clicking on the buttons below:
Like many professional investors, I love companies that pay dividends. Dividends bring tangible and intangible benefits: Over the last hundred years, half of total stock returns came from dividends.
In a world where earnings often represent the creative output of CFOs’ imaginations, dividends are paid out of cash flows, and thus are proof that a company’s earnings are real.
Finally, a company that pays out a significant dividend has to have much greater discipline in managing the business, because a significant dividend creates another cash cost, so management has less cash to burn in empire-building acquisitions.
Posted on July 31, 2022 by Dr. David Edward Marcinko MBA MEd CMP™
By Staff Reporters
From: Munich Personal RePEc Archive [MPRA]
Economist Wade Donald Pfau wrote an article called, “Capital Market Expectations, Asset Allocation, and Safe Withdrawal more than a decade ago. Today, is is still a vital read.
Abstract
Most retirement withdrawal rate studies are either based on historical data or use a particular assumption about portfolio returns unique to the study in question.
But, financial advisors and planners may have their own capital market expectations for future returns from stocks, bonds, and other assets they deem suitable for their clients’ portfolios. These uniquely personal expectations may or may not bear resemblance to those used for making retirement withdrawal rate guidelines. The objective here is to provide a general framework for thinking about how to estimate sustainable withdrawal rates and appropriate asset allocations for clients based on one’s capital market expectations, as well as other inputs about the client including the planning horizon, tolerance for exhausting wealth, and personal concerns about holding riskier assets.
The study also tests the sensitivity of various assumptions for the recommended withdrawal rates and asset allocations, and finds that these assumptions are very important. Another common feature of existing studies is to focus on an optimal asset allocation, which is expected either to minimize the probability of failure for a given withdrawal rate, or to maximize the withdrawal rate for a given probability of failure. Retirement withdrawal rate studies are known in this regard for lending support to stock allocations in excess of 50 percent.
Assessment
This study shows that usually there are a wide range of asset allocations which can be expected to perform nearly as well as the optimal allocation, and that lower stock allocations are indeed justifiable in many cases.
NOTE: Wade Donald Pfau is an Associate Professor of Economics at the National Graduate Institute for Policy Studies (GRIPS) in Tokyo, Japan. His PhD in economics was from Princeton University.
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QUESTION: We are in near bear market correction territory – especially for tech stocks – so what are the 2 major types of valuation approaches for common stock?
ANSWER: There are basically two different approaches for common stock valuation; top-down and bottom-up. Under either of the two fundamental approaches, a physician investor will have to work with individual company data. In reality, each of these approaches is used by investors and security analysts when doing fundamental analysis.
With the bottom-up approach, investors focus directly on a company’s prospects. Analysis of such information as the company’s products, its competitive position, and its financial status leads to an estimate of the company’s earnings potential, and, ultimately, its value in the market. Considerable time and effort are required to produce the type of detailed financial analysis needed to understand a firm’s standing. The emphasis in this approach is on finding companies with good long-term growth prospects, and making accurate earnings estimates.
The top-down approach is the opposite of the bottom-up approach. Investors begin with the economy and the overall market, considering such important factors as interest rates and inflation. They next consider likely industry prospects, or sectors of the economy that are likely to do particularly well (or particularly poorly). Finally, having decided that factors are favorable for investing, and having determined which parts of the overall economy are likely to perform well, individual companies are analyzed.
Posted on June 5, 2022 by Dr. David Edward Marcinko MBA MEd CMP™
By Staff Reporters
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U.S. personal income rose 0.42% in May, which equates to 5% on an annualized basis. With inflation (8.26% annualized) so much higher than income (5% annualized), consumers have to borrow or dip into savings to continue buying the same amount of goods and services they purchased last year.
And, in a recent survey, Clever found that retirees average only $191,659 saved for retirement. That’s not a lot for what could be a 20- to 30-year time period. This would translate to an annual income of $7,666. On a monthly basis, that’s just $639 — still not a lot when combined with the average Social Security benefit. NOTE: To be fair, that $191,659 is based on a single survey of 1,000 retired Americans. That number may look different across a much larger sample size.
Finally, amid rising inflation rates and slowing demand, tech and crypto companies cut more jobs in May than in the previous four months combined, according to out placement firm Challenger, Gray & Christmas. There were 4,044 job cuts in the tech industry compared to about 500 through the first four months of the year and the most in one month since December 2020. Crypto and other companies in the fintech industry cut 1,619 jobs in May, compared to 440 in January through April.
Posted on May 6, 2022 by Dr. David Edward Marcinko MBA MEd CMP™
By Staff Reporters
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Markets: After booming stocks had their worst day of the year because of raging inflation, slowing economic growth, and a potential recession.
Crypto: Bitcoin and other major cryptos like ethereum also tumbled in the aftermath of the FOMC announcement. They’ve typically tracked the performance of growth stocks, which have gotten hammered on the prospect of higher interest rates.
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Almost every major online retailer reporting earnings with signs of a decline:
Wayfair shares cratered nearly 26% yesterday after announcing that its active customer count dropped 23.4% from a year ago.
Bed Bath & Beyond reported an 18% nosedive in online sales.
Etsy and eBay shares both dropped by double digits yesterday after giving weak guidance for the current quarter.
At least five senior executives from Meta’s fledgling e-commerce division have fled in the last six months.
Shopify shares plummeted about 15% on Thursday after posting much lower-than-expected earnings.
Posted on May 4, 2022 by Dr. David Edward Marcinko MBA MEd CMP™
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In this podcast, host Dara Albright and guest, Eric Satz, Founder and CEO of Alto IRA, discuss how modern Self-Directed IRAs (SDIRAs) are democratizing retirement planning by providing all Americans with the ability to add non-correlated alternative asset classes to tax-advantaged accounts.
The single greatest – and free – investment tool is also disclosed.
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Discussion highlights include:
How SDIRAs offer wealth building opportunities for “not-yet accredited investors”;
How SDIRAs have evolved to accommodate micro-sized alternative investments;
Why alternative assets belong in retirement vehicles;
Three reasons most retirement savers are underweighted in non-correlated assets;
Trading cryptocurrencies without tax consequences;
Why RIAs are looking to ALTO for clients’ crypto allocation;
Posted on April 14, 2022 by Dr. David Edward Marcinko MBA MEd CMP™
By Staff Reporters
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DEFINITION: A rate of return (RoR) is the net gain or loss of an investment over a specified time period, expressed as a percentage of the investment’s initial cost. When calculating the rate of return, you are determining the percentage change from the beginning of the period until the end.
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And so, according to Greg McBride CFA, before you invest your money, you’re likely wondering how much you’re going to earn. This is known as the rate of return. The rate of return is expressed as a percentage of the total amount you invested. If you invest $1,000 and get back your original investment plus an additional $100 in interest, you’ve earned a 10 percent return.
However, numbers don’t always tell the full story. You’ll also need to think about how long you plan to keep the money invested, how your investment options have performed historically and how inflation will impact your bottom line.
Key return on investment statistics
When you’re trying to get the best return on your investment, you’ll likely start combing through loads of data. A good place to start is looking at the past decade of returns on some of the most common investments:
Pink sheets are an over-the-counter (OTC) market that connects broker-dealers electronically. There is no trading floor and the quotations are also all done electronically. Since there is no central trading floor or stock exchange like the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE), the pink sheet-listed companies do not have the same criteria to fulfill as the companies listed on national stock exchanges. Many stocks listed on the pink sheets are low-priced penny stocks that trade for under $5 a share.
Pink sheets got their name because the original pink sheets listing the stocks were actually printed and distributed on pink pieces of paper. Trading over-the-counter (OTC) refers to the process of how securities listed on the pink sheets are traded through a broker-dealer network.
A client recently asked me whether there is a difference in our sell discipline between high and low growth companies.
Selling is one of the hardest parts of investing. I wrote a lot on the subject in the past, but let’s zoom in on how our selling practice differs between high-growth companies with long runways for compounding and slow-growth companies.
EDITOR’S NOTE: It has been a few years since I spoke with my colleague Vitaliy. But, I read his newsletters and blog regularly and suggest all ME-P readers do the same.
Posted on March 14, 2022 by Dr. David Edward Marcinko MBA MEd CMP™
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Investing and Chess
By Vitaliy Katsenelson, CFA
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Conclusion: Investing and Chess
I read somewhere that chess is a game of small advantages. When the game starts, the players are equal – both hold the same number of pieces in the same positions. But then every move either adds to your position (competitive advantage) or subtracts from it. These little decisions (resulting in a better pawn structure, a more secure king, a centrally positioned knight, and so on) that you make with every move accumulate into victory.
Investing is not that much different, especially in today’s world where access to information has flattened. A mutual fund that manages $100 billion may spend $100 million on research, but that $100 million doesn’t buy any more than what a patient value investor can glean by reading financial statements.
I am not talking about Warren Buffett either, who doesn’t even have a PC in his office. Ted Weschler and Todd Combs (Warren Buffett’s right-hand men) achieved phenomenal investment success without a fancy research department by simply reading carefully and following our Six Commandments.
The key to succeeding in this irrational world is to actively ingrain each one of these principles into your investment operating system, improving your process just a little on a daily basis, and then success will follow.
Finally, this would not be a worthy chapter if I did not contradict myself, just a little. Investing is also unlike chess. Investing affords us a luxury that few people appreciate: You can choose your own opponent. In chess tournaments, you don’t get to choose your opponent. Tournament organizers match you to someone with an equal rating; then as you win, you are progressively matched against better opponents.
In investing, you are the “tournament organizer.” You get to walk into the room and, instead of choosing the geekiest opponent – the dude with thick glasses who hasn’t been on a date in years and has only thought and dreamt about chess – you can go for the muscular guy who spends five hours a day in the gym, and only joined the tournament because he lost a bet.
Money doesn’t know how you made it. A hundred dollars made by solving easy problems (buying stocks where both your IQ and EQ were at their highest) buys as much as a hundred dollars that caused you to lose your hair. In investing, you don’t have to solve the problems that everyone else is solving. There are thousands of stocks out there, and your portfolio needs only a few dozen.
Posted on March 12, 2022 by Dr. David Edward Marcinko MBA MEd CMP™
By Staff Reporters
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Markets: Another losing week for Wall Street’s three main indexes, and the fifth down week in a row for the Dow. Despite ticking up yesterday, oil prices have actually fallen over the last five days thanks to assurances that producers could plug the supply gap left by Russia.
Ukraine: As Russian forces expanded their assault on new cities in Ukraine, President Biden once again ruled out deploying US troops to the country. “A direct confrontation between NATO and Russia is World War III,” he said.
Stress: More than 80% of Americans said that the invasion of Ukraine and inflation are significant sources of stress, according to a new survey from the American Psychological Association. That share is higher than for any other issue asked about since the survey began in 2007. Meanwhile, US consumer confidence fell to its lowest level in almost 11 years in early March.
Posted on March 10, 2022 by Dr. David Edward Marcinko MBA MEd CMP™
WHAT A DAY!
By Staff Reporters
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MARKETS: The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 653.61 points, or 2%, to end at 33,286.25.
The S&P 500 gained 2.6%, or 107.18 points, finishing at 4,277.88, its best daily percentage gain since June 5, 2020, according to Dow Jones Market Data.
The NASDAQ Composite Index advanced 3.6%, or 459.99 points, closing at 13,255.55, its best daily percentage gain since March 9, 2021.
The S&P 500 had dropped nearly 5% over the last four sessions.
LABOR DEPARTMENT: Will issue its inflation report, which economists expect will show that prices for U.S. consumers leapt 7.9% in February compared with a year ago, according to data provided by FactSet. That would be the biggest gain in four decades. Consumer prices jumped 7.5% in January from a year earlier. Shortages of supplies and workers, heavy doses of federal aid, ultra-low interest rates and robust consumer spending combined to send inflation accelerating in the past year.
Posted on March 4, 2022 by Dr. David Edward Marcinko MBA MEd CMP™
By Staff Reporters
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Stocks fell and oil prices eased back after another bumpy day of trading on Wall Street as markets remained anxious about the broader impact of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.
Okta shares were down 8.06% while Snowflake plummeted 15.37%.
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INTEL: Intel stock (NASDAQ: INTC) fell 2.5% after Morgan Stanley and Bank of America Securities cut their targets to $47, according to StreetInsider. The stock fell to a low of $47.62, not far from its 52-week low of $43.63. Morgan Stanley (NYSE:MS) analyst Joseph Moore also downgraded the stock to underweight from equal weight while BofA’s Vivek Arya maintained his under perform rating.
INDEXES: Major indexes veered up and down for much of the day before a late-day slide pushed them into the red. The S&P 500 shed a 0.7% gain to close 0.5% lower, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 0.3%. The NASDAQ composite fell 1.6%, weighed down by technology stocks, which accounted for a big share of the market’s decline.
The Dow is down 0.9% for the week, on track for its fourth negative week in a row. The S&P 500 is down about 0.5% for the week, while the NASDAQ Composite is down more than 1%.
BUYBACKS: In the third quarter of 2021, Apple, Inc. (NASDAQ: AAPL) led all S&P 500 companies with $20.4 billion in buybacks. Alphabet, Inc. (NASDAQ: GOOG) (NASDAQ: GOOGL) was a distant second with $15 billion in buybacks, followed by Meta Platforms Inc (NASDAQ: FB) with $12.6 billion.
Over the last decade, no company has come close to Apple in the buyback department. Apple has bought back $487.6 billion in stock since 2012. Microsoft Corporation (NASDAQ: MSFT) is a very distant second with $147.1 billion in buybacks, followed by JPMorgan Chase & Co (NYSE: JPM) with $146.2 billion.
Why Buybacks Matter: It should come as no surprise to investors that all three of the stocks that have been most aggressive in buying back shares over the last 10 years have outperformed the SPDR S&P 500 ETF (NYSE: SPY) total return by a wide margin in that period.
BONDS: Bond yields were mostly steady. The yield on the 10-year Treasury slipped to 1.85% from 1.86% late Wednesday.
Posted on March 3, 2022 by Dr. David Edward Marcinko MBA MEd CMP™
By Staff Reporters
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Economy: Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell told Congress that “it’s too soon to say” how the war in Ukraine will affect the central bank’s plans, but for now it’s not enough to derail the FOMC from hiking interest rates later this month.
Markets: Stocks rose across the board with strong corporate fundamentals outshining geopolitical worries…at least for a day. Intel had a strong showing after its CEO got a shout-out in the State of the Union address (to be fair, we have no idea if those two things are related).
Posted on February 27, 2022 by Dr. David Edward Marcinko MBA MEd CMP™
By Staff Reporters
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Microsoft: Microsoft Corp.’s stock dropped 2.6% on Wednesday to close at a seven-month low of $280.07. On Thursday, the software giant’s stock opened down 2.8% at $272.51, hit an intra-day low of $271.52, then bounced 8.5% off that low to close up 5.1% on the day at $294.59. The difference between Microsoft’s bullish engulfing and that of Twitter and Meta is that the downtrend has lasted only three months, since the stock closed at a record $343.11 on November. 19th. On Friday, the stock edged up 0.9% to $297.31.
Salesforce: Shares of Saleforce.com Inc. sank 2.4% on Wednesday to close at a 19-month low of $190.54, or 38.5% below its Nov. 8, 2021 record close of $309.96. Then on Thursday, it opened down 3.0% at $184.74, but bounced sharply to close up 7.2% at $204.29. The customer relationship management software company’s stock rose another 1.9% on Friday to $208.09, but remained the worst performer of the Dow Jones Industrial Average’s 30 components over the past three months with a loss of 26.8%.
AMAZON: The stock traded down roughly 9% across 2021and it’s down roughly 19% from the high that it hit last year. Lapping incredible, pandemic-driven performance, Amazon is facing some tough growth comparisons. Massive technology and infrastructure investments are also putting some pressure on earnings in the near term, but the business remains excellently positioned to win the future, and it will almost certainly be one of the most influential companies of the next decade [maybe]?
Posted on February 23, 2022 by Dr. David Edward Marcinko MBA MEd CMP™
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By Staff Reporters
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MARKETS: The S&P 500 fell into a correction for the first time in two years, joining the NASDAQ Composite, as Russia sent troops into pro-Russian regions in Ukraine. The S&P 500 index ended down 1% at 4,304.76, below the correction level at 4,316.91, which would represent a 10% drop from its January 3rd record close. A correction is commonly defined by market technicians as a fall of at least 10% (but not greater than 20%) from a recent peak. The last time the S&P 500 entered a correction was February 27th 2020, when the market was being whipsawed by fears about the outbreak of the COVID pandemic.
And, this bearish market isn’t sparing 2021 winners like Home Depot, which fell the most in nearly two years after supply-chain bottlenecks squeezed its margins. HD was the Dow’s biggest gainer last year.
IRS: According to a news release issued by the IRS, taxpayers now have the option to verify their identities during live, virtual interviews with agents. The agency stresses that no bio-metric data will be required for those interviews.
However, taxpayers once again have the option to verify their identity using ID.me’s facial recognition services. Addressing privacy concerns, the IRS says new requirements are in place to ensure that images provided will be deleted upon verification. That would apply to any new IRS accounts created and those where selfies have already been collected.
Posted on February 22, 2022 by Dr. David Edward Marcinko MBA MEd CMP™
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By Staff Reporters
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Markets: The domestic markets were closed yesterday as stocks around the world tumbled.
Crypto: Bitcoin was trading at $36,649 at 2:30 a.m. ET, falling nearly 6.5% in the last 24 hours, according to data from CoinDesk. The world’s most valuable cryptocurrency fell below $40,000 over the weekend, and has continued to slide as the Ukraine crisis intensifies. The currency has lost almost half its value since its November high of $68,990 due to geopolitical tensions, the prospect of interest rate hikes by the US Federal Reserve and curbs by some major economies on digital assets. Bitcoin’s peers have also been faring poorly. Ethereum, the world’s second most valuable cryptocurrency, fell over 8% in the last 24 hours and was trading at $2,520.
Putin: Russian President Vladimir Putin dramatically escalated the Ukrainian conflict. He recognized two separatist regions in eastern Ukraine as independent and ordered Russian troops to enter those areas, which may provide the pretext for an invasion of other parts of the country. Western leaders condemned the move as a violation of international law and the US said it will impose sanctions on those regions.
Capital markets require confidence that all market participants have fair access to the same relevant information about a company and its prospects. Laws governing the trading of securities have been in existence since stocks were first traded. It seems as if each piece of legislation, from the Securities and Exchange Act of the 1930’s through to the 2002 Sarbanes-Oxley Law fought the prior corruption as successfully as preparing an army to fight the last war.
Curiously, the issue of insider trading by members of Congress is not a partisan issue. If behavior is any indication, certain Republicans and Democrats are fond of having the ability to profit from access to material, nonpublic information. Others of both parties are introducing legislation to block illegal insider trading.
Congress has passed laws that prohibit people with insider knowledge from trading on non-public information, and from sharing that non-public information with others who may trade stocks based on that information. The former is known as “illegal insider trading” and the latter as “tipping.” There exists legal insider trading, which is bound by rules of disclosure and third-party decision makers, but we will leave that for another day. Illegal insider trading is enforced through Federal Agencies including the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), Internal Revenue Service (IRS) and the Department of Justice (DOJ), as well as by regulations on major stock exchanges such as the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) and National Association of Securities Dealers Automated Quotation Systems (NASDAQ).
While there is universal agreement that executives, board members, employees and others with access to non-public information may not use that information to trade stocks, members of Congress and their staffs face few practical barriers. And in more recent months, members of the Federal Reserve and their staffs have made questionable, if not downright suspicious trades of stocks.
History is littered with cases of both average citizens and celebrities like Martha Stewart being prosecuted for insider trading. Stewart was ultimately prosecuted and jailed for obstruction after denying insider knowledge.
There are members of both the US Senate and US House of Representatives who want to stop illegal insider trading by their peers. For example, in 2012, President Barack Obama signed the Stop Trading on Congressional Knowledge (STOCK) Act to prevent insider trading by members of Congress and Congressional Staff. However, there have been no prosecutions under this statute to date. The reason is that the “Speech and Debate” clause prohibits questioning an elected Senator or Congressional Representative.
Moreover, much of the disclosure of material, non-public information that would establish a foundation for illegal insider trading occurs outside the public eye. Members of Congress cannot act on information obtained from companies themselves. The difficulty arises in proving that a member of Congress or Congressional staff knew of material, non-public information acquired in a confidential congressional meeting. Let me rephrase that. There is no way of knowing what transpired in the confidential committee meeting so there is no provable path to a stock trade benefiting the member of Congress or their staff.
Suppose two publicly traded defense contractors were bidding on a new weapons system. In a confidential committee, a Department of Defense (DOD) recommendation to accept the bid of company A versus Company B was made and endorsed by the committee. At that point, everyone with access to the non-public information about the weapons system bid would know that it would be good for the stock of Company A and bad for the stock of Company B.
Take this a step further. Company A and Company B are notified about the confidential decision and advised to keep this material, non-public information protected. At this point, if any executive, board member or employee with that knowledge traded in the stock of Company A or Company B they would be subject to prosecution, including fines and imprisonment. Also, if any person at the company provided that material, non-public information to another person, including a member of Congress, that action would be subject to investigation and potential prosecution.
Now suppose a Senator, Congressional Representative or staff member, after receiving the news of the weapons system award went to their broker, computer or telephone and bought stock in Company A while selling (or shorting in another way) Company B. Or perhaps communicated to a friend or family member on a trade “suggestion.” Relaying or exploiting information – material, non-public information — behavior that would land any other person in an investigation and make them subject to prosecution, cannot be practically pursued because there is no way to use the committee deliberations as evidence.
When Senators Richard Burr (R-NC), Kelly Loeffler (R-GA) and Diane Feinstein (D-CA) were accused of insider trading, instead of being subjected to investigation and potential prosecution through the SEC, IRS, or DOJ, their actions instead were reviewed by the Senate Ethics Committee. The Senate Ethics Committee, made up of other US Senators, found no wrongdoing. Let me rephrase that – other US Senators, who might benefit themselves from insider trading – decided to give suspicious behavior a pass. Even if the conduct of the Senators was on the up-and-up, the optics do not inspire confidence.
The US Senate does not have a monopoly on suspicious trading. For example, Congresswoman Lois Frankel (D-FL), was accused of trading stocks of companies in the fossil fuel industry while a sitting on a Congressional subcommittee that oversees funding for the Department of Energy.
Legislation to Block Insider Trading by Congress and the Federal Reserve
US Senators and Congressional Representatives have made proposals to improve public perception of their ranks with more practical solutions and stiffer penalties. Pre-eminent among the reformers is Senator Elizabeth Warren (D-MA), a person with a strong background in financial matters. Senator Warren appears to be the leading voice in calling for members of the Federal Reserve and their staffs to also be subject to laws prohibiting illegal insider trading and tipping. These restrictions are long overdue, as statements by the Fed has caused wild gyrations in the prices of securities. Senator Warren’s ideas are recommended reading on her web site at
. Enter “Insider Trading” on the search bar of the Senator’s web site for 61 references.
Senators Jeff Merkley (D-OR) and Sherrod Brown (D-OH) have offered the “Ban Conflicted Trading Act.” Under the legislation, elected persons and their staffs would be required to either sell or freeze their stock holdings, or put them in a blind trust. Introduced in 2018, the legislation has stalled. Last winter, Representative Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D-NY) and others have indicated they would introduce the same legislation in the House.
Earlier this month, Senators Jon Ossoff (D-GA) and Mark Kelly (D-AZ) introduced the Ban Congressional Stock Trading Act. If it becomes law, every member of Congress—as well as their spouses and dependent children—would be required to place their stock portfolios into a blind trust. One benefit of an outright ban or blind trusts would mean that clerical matters would no longer be a concern of those elected. Kelly himself, according to news reports, did not make a timely disclosure about a stock option exercise.
Senator Josh Hawley (R-MO) announced he will introduce the Banning Insider Trading in Congress Act. Wryly pointing out that politicians manage to outperform the stock market year after year, Hawley’s bill would prohibit members of Congress and their spouses from buying and trading individual stocks. Those who violate it would have to disgorge their profits.
Congress: Keep it simple and fix this
The singular, clear way to avoid abuses of insider information is to ban the trade of individual stocks and industry-specific Exchange Traded Funds (ETF) by members of Congress, Congressional staffs, members of the Federal Reserve and their staffs. Double blind trusts (where neither the owner or trustee knows identity of the other) would be an acceptable form of investing. Finally, add stronger criminal penalties for tipping insider information.
This is one of the few things that seem to enjoy bipartisan support, and would seemingly be welcomed by nonpartisans and those on the political poles as well.
Of course, like everything political, proposals of these types do not enjoy absolute, clear-cut support. As House Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-CA) said about her opposition to such restrictions “We are a free market economy,” Pelosi, purported to be one of the 25 wealthiest members of Congress, continued, “They (Congress) should be able to participate in that.” Pelosi’s recent financial disclosure is said to have 48 transactions made by her family valued at a total of some $50 million so she is sympathetic to serving in Congress and participating in trading.
Posted on February 19, 2022 by Dr. David Edward Marcinko MBA MEd CMP™
By Staff Reporters
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MARKETS: Stocks closed down for a second straight week in the US— and sunk deeper into the red for 2022 so far — as investors assess the risks from escalating tensions in Ukraine and a shift in monetary policy by the Federal Reserve.
And, after another day of turbulence, the Dow and the S&P 500 both fell 0.7% (with the Dow ending Friday at 34,079) and the tech-heavy NASDAQ composite declined 1.2%. The NASDAQ has fallen farthest of the three major U.S. stock indexes to date, down 13.4% for the year, while the S&P 500 is off 8.8% and the Dow is down 6.2%.
Specifically, Intel’s shares declined $2.47, or 5.2%, while those of Boeing were off $4.38 (2.1%), combining for a roughly 45-point drag on the Dow. Salesforce.com Inc. Caterpillar and Honeywell International Inc. also contributed significantly to the decline.
STOCKS:
Shopify, which represented the Covid e-commerce boom, is down 62% from its peak.
Roblox, which represented the Covid gaming boom, is down 63%.
Netflix, which represented the Covid streaming boom, is down 43%.
Noteworthy: A $1 move in any of the Dow’s 30 components equates to a 6.59-point swing.
UKRAINE: Investors watched the latest developments in Ukraine, where Russia has been amassing troops on the border. The tensions are yet another concern for investors as they also try to determine how the economy will react to rising inflation and looming interest rate hikes.
Posted on February 17, 2022 by Dr. David Edward Marcinko MBA MEd CMP™
By Staff Reporters
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Alternative Minimum Tax
DEFINITION: The alternative minimum tax (AMT) is a tax imposed by the United States federal government in addition to the regular income tax for certain individuals, estates, and trusts. As of tax year 2018, the AMT raises about $5.2 billion, or 0.4% of all federal income tax revenue, affecting 0.1% of taxpayers, mostly in the upper income ranges.
Posted on February 17, 2022 by Dr. David Edward Marcinko MBA MEd CMP™
By Staff Reporters
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BIOTECHNOLOGY: According to Bloomberg, former high flying biotechnology favorites Mirati Therapeutics Inc. and Sage Therapeutics Inc. have lost more than half their value from record highs, hurt by growing pessimism on new medicines as well as the higher rate environment damaging most stocks.
MARKETS: Stocks went down, then back up, and closed pretty much where they started. The e-commerce platform Shopify is another pandemic winner that’s been absolutely crushed during the “reopening”: Its stock has fallen to its lowest level since June 2020.
PPI: The producer price index rose 1% over the prior month.
Covid: Dr. Zayid Al-Aly reported that even a mild COVID-19 infection increasedthe risk of having cardiovascular problems — including heart rhythm irregularities, potentially deadly clots in the legs and lungs, heart failure, heart attack and stroke, within a year after being infected.
MICROSOFT: Microsoft CEO Satya Nadella is on a major shopping spree. The company’s planned purchase of video game maker Activision Blizzard, with a price tag of nearly $70 billion, is Microsoft’s biggest and boldest acquisition. But it’s hardly the only notable deal in the Nadella era. Microsoft scooped up advertising tech business Xandr from CNN owner AT&T late last year for a reported $1 billion. The company also shelled out nearly $20 billion for cloud software firm Nuance earlier in 2021. That’s on top of numerous other billion dollar deals Microsoft has made since Nadella took the helm in 2014, including the acquisitions of Minecraft developer Mojang, Bethesda games studio owner ZeniMax Media, open source coding site GitHub and business social media network LinkedIn. The LinkedIn deal was previously Microsoft’s largest, with a value of $26.2 billion. Now there are reports Microsoft is looking to buy Mandiant, the cybersecurity software firm formerly known as FireEye that is currently valued at about $4.5 billion.
Posted on February 14, 2022 by Dr. David Edward Marcinko MBA MEd CMP™
Insights For Doctors and All Investors
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By Vitaliy Katsenelson CFA
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NOTE: This piece is a little more technical, and contains a bit more stock-market jargon, than most essays you get from me. While how we build portfolios is important to us and our clients, we realize that the puts and takes might bore many readers.
Bonds: A bond selloff eased up a day ahead of an eagerly anticipated inflation report as investors absorbed another batch of earnings reports. The DJIA rose 300 points higher, but tech-related stocks lead the rally on Wall Street as bond yields stabilized and treasury yields paused their run higher ahead of the red-hot inflation report estimates.
Markets: The S&P 500 closed as a rally in Facebook-parent Meta helped the broader tech sector build on recent gains just as the S&P 500 rose 1.5%. The Dow Jones Industrial Average added 0.8%, or 306 points, the NASDAQ jumped 2.1%. And, Meta Platforms (NASDAQ: FB) jumped more than 5% as investors appeared to the buy the dip in the social media company, which hit fresh 52-week lows a day earlier. For the second-straight day, a rally in semiconductor stocks also pushed tech higher, with Nvidia (NASDAQ: NVDA) racking up a 5% gain as analysts downplayed the $1.25 billion hit to the company after its deal to acquire UK chip-maker ARM fell through.
Posted on February 7, 2022 by Dr. David Edward Marcinko MBA MEd CMP™
By Staff Reporters
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DEFINITION: A stock split or stock divide increases the number of shares in a company. For example, after a 2-for-1 split, each investor will own double the number of shares, and each share will be worth half as much. A stock split causes a decrease of market price of individual shares, but does not change the total market capitalization of the company: stock dilution does not occur.
Google parent company Alphabet said it would split its stock 20–1. That means in July 2022, Alphabet shareholders will receive 19 more shares for every one that they own. It doesn’t mean they’ll be 20x richer—the price of the stock they hold will drop a proportional amount. If the stock split were to happen now, Alphabet’s share price would fall from $2,865 to $143.
Why does it matter?
In many ways, it doesn’t. A stock split does not change the value of the company. It’s simply a way to increase the number of shares outstanding.
Think of it like slicing a pizza. At a share price of almost $3,000, Alphabet’s slices were a wide a monstrosity. With the stock split, it’s cutting company ownership into smaller portions. But, in the end, the pizza isn’t growing—there are just more slices to be shared.
So why do it? By making the slices of its company smaller, it hopes that more people will look at them and say, “Well I guess one couldn’t hurt.” Alphabet said the goal of the stock split is to attract more small-time investors who might have been intimidated by buying in at such a steep share price.
Only 27 other stocks in the S&P 500 have share prices above $500 besides Alphabet.
And, there’s evidence this bit of corporate inception can be effective. To see why, let’s look at what happened when two other tech giants, Tesla and Apple, split their stock recently.
When Apple split its stock 4–1 in July 2020, retail investors upped their purchases from $150 million per week to nearly $1 billion, according to Vanda Research.
When Tesla split its stock 5–1 in August 2020, retail investing jumped from $30–$40 million/week to $700 million.
There may be another play for Alphabet here—and that is to pad its resume for inclusion in the iconic Dow Jones Industrial Average. Because the Dow is weighted by share price (an antiquated system, to be sure), Alphabet at its current price would overwhelm all of the companies. It would become the Alphabet Industrial Average. At $247, it becomes a much more attractive candidate for the Dow.
Posted on February 5, 2022 by Dr. David Edward Marcinko MBA MEd CMP™
By Staff Reporters
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Markets: The stock market was downright crazy last week. A day after Meta [Facebook] suffered the worst one-day drop in value in US stock market history (losing more than $230 billion), Amazon set the record for the biggest one-day gain on Wall Street (adding $191 billion). As for the major indexes, the S&P 500 and NASDAQ posted their best week so far this year.
Economy: The jobs report stunned experts by adding 467,000 jobs last month, far more than expected and a sign of an extraordinarily strong labor market. In even better news, the government said it had under-counted the number of jobs added in November and December by more than 700,000.
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