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SPEAKING: Dr. Marcinko will be speaking and lecturing, signing and opining, teaching and preaching, storming and performing at many locations throughout the USA this year! His tour of witty and serious pontifications may be scheduled on a planned or ad-hoc basis; for public or private meetings and gatherings; formally, informally, or over lunch or dinner. All medical societies, financial advisory firms or Broker-Dealers are encouraged to submit an RFP for speaking engagements: CONTACT: Ann Miller RN MHA at MarcinkoAdvisors@outlook.com -OR- http://www.MarcinkoAssociates.com

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RECESSION: A Heightened Risk in 2026?

Posted on December 13, 2025 by Dr. David Edward Marcinko MBA MEd CMP™

By Dr. David Edward Marcinko MBA MEd

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The U.S. faces a heightened risk of recession in 2026, with economic indicators, expert forecasts, and global instability contributing to widespread concern. While some analysts remain cautiously optimistic, the probability of a downturn is significant.

The potential for a U.S. recession in 2026 is a topic of growing concern among economists, policymakers, and investors. According to UBS, the probability of a recession has surged to 93% based on hard data analysis, including employment trends, industrial production, and credit market signals. This alarming figure reflects a convergence of economic stressors that could culminate in a downturn by the end of 2026.

One of the most prominent warning signs is the inverted yield curve, a historically reliable predictor of recessions. When short-term interest rates exceed long-term rates, it suggests that investors expect weaker growth ahead. This inversion, coupled with elevated federal debt and persistent inflationary pressures, has led many analysts to forecast a slowdown in consumer spending and business investment.

Despite these concerns, some sectors—particularly artificial intelligence (AI)—are providing temporary buoyancy. The AI infrastructure boom has fueled GDP growth and market optimism, with global AI investment projected to reach $500 billion by 2026.

However, experts warn that this surge may be masking underlying economic fragility. If AI-driven investment slows, the economy could quickly lose momentum, revealing vulnerabilities in other sectors such as manufacturing and retail.

Global factors also play a critical role. Trade tensions, geopolitical instability, and fluctuating oil prices have created an unpredictable environment. The lingering effects of tariff pass-throughs and policy uncertainty are expected to intensify in 2026, further straining the U.S. economy. Additionally, speculative forecasts—like those from mystic Baba Vanga—have captured public imagination by predicting a “cash crush” that could disrupt both virtual and physical currency systems, although such claims lack empirical support. Not all forecasts are dire. Oxford Economics suggests that while growth will moderate, the U.S. may avoid a full-blown recession thanks to continued investment incentives and robust AI-related spending. Their above-consensus GDP forecast hinges on the assumption that business confidence remains stable and that fiscal policy supports non-AI sectors effectively.

Nevertheless, the risks are real and multifaceted. The Polymarket prediction platform currently estimates a 43% chance of a U.S. recession by the end of 2026, based on criteria such as two consecutive quarters of negative GDP growth or an official declaration by the National Bureau of Economic Research.

In conclusion, while the U.S. economy may continue to navigate “choppy waters,” the potential for a recession in 2026 is substantial. Policymakers must remain vigilant, balancing stimulus with fiscal discipline, and addressing structural weaknesses before temporary growth drivers fade.

The coming year will be pivotal in determining whether the U.S. can steer clear of recession or succumb to the mounting pressures.

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BREAKING NEWS! Jerome Powell Reduces FOMC Rates

Posted on December 10, 2025 by Dr. David Edward Marcinko MBA MEd CMP™

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The Federal Reserve’s decision today to reduce the federal funds rate marks a pivotal moment in the central bank’s ongoing effort to navigate a complicated economic landscape. Under the leadership of Chair Jerome Powell, the Federal Open Market Committee voted to cut its benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points, bringing the target range down to 3.50%–3.75%. This move, the third rate cut of the year, reflects the Fed’s attempt to balance persistent inflation pressures with signs of weakening momentum in the labor market and broader economy.

Powell’s approach has been defined by caution, flexibility, and a willingness to adjust policy as new data emerges. Today’s cut underscores that philosophy. Although inflation has eased from its peak, it remains elevated enough to warrant vigilance. At the same time, job growth has slowed, and several indicators point to cooling demand. By trimming rates, the Fed aims to support economic activity without reigniting the inflationary surge that dominated the previous two years.

The decision was not without internal debate. Members of the committee were divided, with some arguing that further easing risks undermining progress on inflation, while others warned that failing to act could deepen labor‑market weakness. Powell acknowledged these tensions in his remarks, emphasizing that there is “no risk‑free path” and that the committee must weigh competing risks carefully. His message suggested that while the Fed is open to additional cuts if conditions deteriorate, the bar for further action has risen now that rates are approaching what policymakers view as a neutral range.

Financial markets reacted swiftly. Equities rallied on expectations that lower borrowing costs will support corporate earnings and investment. Bond yields dipped as investors priced in a more accommodative policy stance. Yet the broader economic implications will unfold over time. For households, the cut may translate into slightly lower rates on mortgages, auto loans, and credit cards, offering modest relief. For businesses, cheaper financing could encourage expansion and hiring.

Today’s rate reduction highlights the delicate balancing act facing the Federal Reserve. Powell must steer the economy between the twin risks of inflation and recession, all while navigating political scrutiny and incomplete economic data. The latest move signals confidence that the economy can regain momentum without sacrificing price stability, but it also reflects the uncertainty that continues to shape monetary policy. As the year draws to a close, the Fed’s actions today will play a central role in shaping the economic trajectory of the months ahead.

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INFLATION: Impact on the Average Middle-Class Family

Posted on November 26, 2025 by Dr. David Edward Marcinko MBA MEd CMP™

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MONEY SUPPLY: Measurement Tools

Posted on November 21, 2025 by Dr. David Edward Marcinko MBA MEd CMP™

By Dr. David Edward Marcinko MBA MEd

BASIC DEFINITIONS

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Money supply measures—M0, M1, M2, and M3—are essential tools used by economists and policymakers to assess liquidity, guide monetary policy, and understand economic health. Each measure reflects a different level of liquidity and plays a unique role in financial analysis.

The money supply refers to the total amount of monetary assets available in an economy at a specific time. It includes various forms of money, ranging from physical currency to more liquid financial instruments. To better understand and manage economic activity, central banks and economists categorize money into different measures based on liquidity: M0, M1, M2, and M3.

M0, also known as the monetary base or base money, includes all physical currency in circulation—coins and paper money—plus reserves held by commercial banks at the central bank. It represents the most liquid form of money and is directly controlled by the central bank through tools like open market operations and reserve requirements.

M1 builds on M0 by adding demand deposits (checking accounts) and other liquid deposits that can be quickly converted into cash. It includes:

Physical currency held by the public
Traveler’s checks
Demand deposits at commercial banks

M1 is a key indicator of immediate spending power in the economy. A rapid increase in M1 can signal rising consumer activity, while a decline may indicate tightening liquidity.

M2 expands further by including near-money assets—those that are not as liquid as M1 but can be converted into cash relatively easily. M2 includes:

All components of M1
Savings deposits
Money market securities
Certificates of deposit (under $100,000)

M2 is widely used by economists and the Federal Reserve to gauge intermediate-term economic trends. It reflects both spending and saving behavior, making it a critical tool for forecasting inflation and guiding interest rate decisions.

M3, though no longer published by the Federal Reserve since 2006, includes M2 plus large time deposits, institutional money market funds, and other larger liquid assets. M3 provides a broader view of the money supply, especially useful for analyzing long-term investment trends and credit expansion. Some countries, like the UK and India, still track M3 for macroeconomic planning.

These measures are not just academic—they have real-world implications. For instance, during the COVID-19 pandemic, the U.S. saw a historic surge in M2 due to stimulus payments and quantitative easing. This expansion raised concerns about future inflation, which materialized in subsequent years. Monitoring money supply helps central banks adjust monetary policy to maintain price stability and support economic growth.

In conclusion, money supply measures offer a layered view of liquidity in the economy, from the most liquid (M0) to broader aggregates (M3).

Understanding these categories helps policymakers, investors, and businesses anticipate economic shifts, manage inflation, and make informed financial decisions.

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MONEY: Macro-Economic Velocity

Posted on November 14, 2025 by Dr. David Edward Marcinko MBA MEd CMP™

By Dr. David Edward Marcinko MBA MEd

BASIC DEFINITIONS

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The velocity of money is a fundamental concept in macroeconomics that measures how quickly money circulates through the economy. It reflects the frequency with which a unit of currency is used to purchase goods and services within a given time period. This metric is crucial for understanding economic activity, inflation, and the effectiveness of monetary policy.

At its core, the velocity of money is calculated using the formula:

Velocity = GDPMoney Supply\text{Velocity} = \frac{\text{GDP}}{\text{Money Supply}}

This equation shows how many times money turns over in the economy to support a given level of economic output. For example, if the GDP is $20 trillion and the money supply (say, M2) is $10 trillion, the velocity is 2—meaning each dollar is used twice in a year to purchase goods and services.

There are different measures of money supply used in this calculation, most commonly M1 and M2. M1 includes the most liquid forms of money, such as cash and checking deposits, while M2 includes M1 plus savings accounts and other near-money assets. The choice of which measure to use depends on the context and the specific economic analysis being conducted.

The velocity of money is influenced by several factors:

Consumer and business confidence: When people feel optimistic about the economy, they are more likely to spend rather than save, increasing velocity.
Interest rates: Higher interest rates can encourage saving and reduce spending, lowering velocity. Conversely, lower rates can stimulate borrowing and spending.
Inflation expectations: If people expect prices to rise, they may spend more quickly, increasing velocity.
Technological and structural changes: Innovations in digital payments and shifts in consumer behavior can also affect how quickly money moves.

Historically, the velocity of money has fluctuated with economic cycles. During periods of economic expansion, velocity tends to rise as spending increases. In contrast, during recessions or periods of uncertainty, velocity often falls as consumers and businesses hold onto cash. For instance, during the 2008 financial crisis and the early stages of the COVID-19 pandemic, velocity dropped sharply due to reduced consumer spending and increased saving.

In recent years, the U.S. has experienced persistently low velocity, even amid significant increases in the money supply. This phenomenon has puzzled economists and raised questions about the effectiveness of monetary policy. Despite aggressive stimulus measures, much of the new money has remained in savings or financial markets rather than circulating through the real economy.

Understanding the velocity of money is essential for policymakers. A low velocity may signal weak demand and justify expansionary fiscal or monetary policies. Conversely, a high velocity could indicate overheating and the need for tightening measures to prevent inflation.

In conclusion, the velocity of money is a dynamic indicator of economic vitality. It helps economists and central banks assess the flow of money, the strength of demand, and the potential for inflation.

While often overlooked by the public, it plays a vital role in shaping economic policy and understanding the broader health of the economy.

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Say’s Law in Classical Economics

Posted on November 12, 2025 by Dr. David Edward Marcinko MBA MEd CMP™

By Dr. David Edward Marcinko MBA MEd

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Say’s Law, named after the French economist Jean‑Baptiste Say, is a foundational idea in classical economics. Often summarized as “supply creates its own demand,” the law suggests that the act of producing goods and services inherently generates the income necessary to purchase them. This principle shaped economic thought throughout the 19th century and continues to influence debates about markets, government intervention, and the causes of economic crises.

Origins and Meaning Jean‑Baptiste Say introduced his law in the early 1800s in his Treatise on Political Economy. He argued that production is the source of demand: when producers create goods, they pay wages, rents, and profits, which in turn become purchasing power. In this view, general overproduction is impossible because every supply of goods corresponds to an equivalent demand. If imbalances occur, they are temporary and limited to specific sectors, not the economy as a whole.

Core Principles Say’s Law rests on several assumptions:

Markets are self‑correcting: Any surplus in one area leads to adjustments in prices and production.
Money is neutral: It serves only as a medium of exchange, not as a driver of demand.
Production drives prosperity: Economic growth depends on increasing output, not stimulating consumption.
No long‑term unemployment: Since supply creates demand, workers displaced in one industry will eventually find employment elsewhere.

These ideas aligned with classical economists’ belief in minimal government intervention and the efficiency of free markets.

Influence on Classical Economics Say’s Law became a cornerstone of classical economics, reinforcing the belief that recessions or depressions were temporary and self‑correcting. Economists like David Ricardo and John Stuart Mill adopted versions of the law, using it to argue against policies aimed at stimulating demand. The law supported laissez‑faire approaches, suggesting that governments should avoid interfering with markets, as production itself would ensure economic balance.

Criticism and Keynesian Revolution Say’s Law faced its greatest challenge during the Great Depression of the 1930s. Widespread unemployment and idle factories contradicted the idea that supply automatically generates demand. John Maynard Keynes famously rejected Say’s Law in his General Theory of Employment, Interest, and Money (1936). Keynes argued that demand, not supply, drives economic activity. He showed that insufficient aggregate demand could lead to prolonged recessions, requiring government intervention through fiscal and monetary policies.

Keynes’s critique marked a turning point in economics. While Say’s Law emphasized production, Keynesian economics highlighted consumption and demand management. This shift reshaped economic policy, leading to active government roles in stabilizing economies.

Modern Perspectives Today, Say’s Law is not accepted in its original form, but elements of it remain relevant. Supply‑side economists, for example, argue that policies encouraging production—such as tax cuts and deregulation—can stimulate growth. In contrast, Keynesians stress the importance of demand management. The debate reflects a broader tension in economics: whether prosperity depends more on producing goods or ensuring people have the means and willingness to buy them.

Conclusion: Say’s Law was a bold attempt to explain the self‑sustaining nature of markets. While its claim that “supply creates its own demand” proved too simplistic in the face of modern economic realities, it remains a vital part of the history of economic thought. The controversy surrounding Say’s Law highlights the evolving nature of economics, where theories are tested against real‑world crises and adapted to new circumstances. Even today, discussions of supply‑side versus demand‑side policies echo the enduring influence of Say’s original insight.

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RICARDIAN ECONOMICS: Can it Save Medicine?

Posted on November 10, 2025 by Dr. David Edward Marcinko MBA MEd CMP™

By Dr. David Edward Marcinko MBA MEd

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Ricardian economics, rooted in the theories of 19th-century economist David Ricardo, emphasizes comparative advantage, free trade, and the neutrality of government debt—most notably through the concept of Ricardian equivalence. While these ideas have shaped macroeconomic thought, their relevance to medicine and healthcare policy is less direct. Still, exploring Ricardian principles offers a provocative lens through which to examine the fiscal sustainability and efficiency of modern healthcare systems.

At the heart of Ricardian equivalence is the idea that consumers are forward-looking and internalize government budget constraints. If a government finances healthcare through debt rather than taxes, rational agents will anticipate future tax burdens and adjust their behavior accordingly. In theory, this undermines the effectiveness of deficit-financed healthcare spending as a stimulus. Applied to medicine, this suggests that long-term fiscal responsibility is crucial: expanding healthcare access through borrowing may not yield the intended economic or health benefits if citizens expect future costs to rise.

This insight could inform debates on healthcare reform, especially in countries grappling with ballooning medical expenditures. Ricardian economics warns against short-term fixes that ignore long-term fiscal implications. For example, expanding public insurance programs without sustainable funding mechanisms could lead to intergenerational inequities and economic distortions. Policymakers might instead focus on reforms that align incentives, reduce waste, and promote cost-effective care—principles that resonate with Ricardo’s emphasis on efficiency and comparative advantage.

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However, Ricardian economics offers limited guidance on the unique moral and practical dimensions of medicine. Healthcare is not a typical market good. Patients often lack the information or autonomy to make rational choices, especially in emergencies. Moreover, the sector is rife with externalities: one person’s vaccination benefits the broader community, and untreated illness can strain public resources. These complexities challenge the assumption of rational, forward-looking behavior central to Ricardian equivalence.

Additionally, Ricardo’s theory of comparative advantage—where nations benefit by specializing in goods they produce most efficiently—has implications for global health. It supports international collaboration in pharmaceutical production, medical research, and telemedicine. Yet, over-reliance on global supply chains can expose vulnerabilities, as seen during the COVID-19 pandemic when countries faced shortages of critical medical supplies.

In conclusion, Ricardian economics provides valuable fiscal insights that can inform healthcare policy, particularly regarding debt sustainability and efficient resource allocation. Its emphasis on long-term planning and comparative advantage can guide reforms that make medicine more resilient and cost-effective. However, the theory’s assumptions about rational behavior and market dynamics limit its applicability to the nuanced realities of healthcare. Medicine requires not just economic efficiency but ethical considerations, equity, and compassion—areas where Ricardian economics falls short. Thus, while it can contribute to the conversation, it cannot “save” medicine alone.

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Understanding NASDAQ: The Digital Revolution in Stock Trading

Posted on November 7, 2025 by Dr. David Edward Marcinko MBA MEd CMP™

By A.I. and Staff Reporters

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The NASDAQ, short for the National Association of Securities Dealers Automated Quotations, is one of the largest and most influential stock exchanges in the world. Founded in 1971, it was the first electronic stock market, revolutionizing how securities were traded by replacing traditional floor-based systems with computerized trading platforms. This innovation made transactions faster, more transparent, and accessible to a broader range of investors.

Unlike the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE), which historically operated through physical trading floors, the NASDAQ is entirely virtual. It connects buyers and sellers through a sophisticated network of computers, allowing for rapid execution of trades. This digital-first approach has made it particularly attractive to technology companies and growth-oriented firms, earning it a reputation as the go-to exchange for innovative and high-tech businesses.

Companies Listed on the NASDAQ The NASDAQ is home to some of the most prominent and influential companies in the world. Giants like Apple, Microsoft, Amazon, Google (Alphabet), Meta (formerly Facebook), and Tesla all trade on the NASDAQ. These companies are part of the NASDAQ-100, an index that tracks the performance of the 100 largest non-financial companies listed on the exchange. The NASDAQ Composite Index, which includes over 3,000 stocks, provides a broader snapshot of the market’s overall health and direction.

How It Works The NASDAQ operates as a dealer’s market, meaning transactions are facilitated by market makers—firms that stand ready to buy or sell securities at publicly quoted prices. These market makers help maintain liquidity and ensure that trades can be executed efficiently. Prices are determined by supply and demand, and the electronic nature of the exchange allows for real-time updates and high-speed trading.

Significance in the Global Economy The NASDAQ plays a vital role in the global financial system. It provides companies with access to capital by allowing them to issue shares to the public, and it offers investors a platform to buy and sell those shares. The performance of the NASDAQ is often seen as a barometer for the health of the technology sector and, more broadly, the innovation economy. When the NASDAQ rises, it typically signals investor confidence in growth and future earnings; when it falls, it may reflect concerns about economic stability or company performance.

Global Reach and Influence Though based in the United States, the NASDAQ’s influence extends worldwide. Many international companies choose to list on the NASDAQ to gain exposure to U.S. investors and benefit from the prestige associated with being part of a leading global exchange. Its technological infrastructure and regulatory standards make it a model for other exchanges around the world.

NASDAQ 100: https://medicalexecutivepost.com/2023/07/24/nasdaq-100-re-balanced-index/

In summary, the NASDAQ is more than just a stock exchange—it’s a symbol of innovation, speed, and global connectivity. Its pioneering approach to electronic trading has reshaped the financial landscape, and its roster of companies continues to drive technological progress and economic growth across the globe.

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K-SHAPED ECONOMY: An Uneven and Divided World

Posted on November 4, 2025 by Dr. David Edward Marcinko MBA MEd CMP™

By Dr. David Edward Marcinko MBA MEd

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The term “K-shaped economy” emerged during the COVID-19 pandemic to describe a recovery marked by stark divergence—where some sectors and social groups rebound rapidly while others continue to decline. Unlike traditional V-shaped or U-shaped recoveries, which imply uniform economic improvement, the K-shaped model reflects a split trajectory: the upward arm of the “K” represents those who thrive, while the downward arm captures those left behind. This phenomenon has profound implications for economic policy, social equity, and long-term stability.

At the heart of the K-shaped economy is inequality. High-income individuals, white-collar professionals, and large corporations often benefit from technological advances, remote work flexibility, and access to capital. For example, tech giants like Apple, Microsoft, and Alphabet saw record profits during the pandemic, fueled by digital transformation and cloud services. Meanwhile, lower-income workers—especially in hospitality, retail, and service industries—faced job losses, reduced hours, and limited access to healthcare or financial safety nets. This divergence widened existing income and wealth gaps, exacerbating social tensions.

Sectoral performance also illustrates the K-shaped divide. Industries such as e-commerce, software, and logistics surged, while travel, entertainment, and small businesses struggled. The rise of automation and artificial intelligence further tilted the scales, favoring companies that could invest in innovation while displacing low-skilled labor. In education, students from affluent families adapted to online learning with ease, while those from disadvantaged backgrounds faced digital barriers and learning loss. These disparities underscore how economic recovery is not just uneven—it’s structurally imbalanced.

Geography plays a role too. Urban centers with diversified economies and strong tech sectors rebounded faster than rural or manufacturing-heavy regions. Housing markets in affluent areas soared, driven by low interest rates and remote work migration, while renters and first-time buyers faced affordability crises. Even within cities, neighborhoods with better infrastructure and public services recovered more quickly, deepening the urban-suburban divide.

Policymakers face a daunting challenge in addressing the K-shaped recovery. Traditional stimulus measures may not reach the most vulnerable populations without targeted interventions. Expanding access to education, healthcare, and digital infrastructure is essential to leveling the playing field. Progressive taxation, wage support, and small business aid can help bridge the gap, but require political will and fiscal discipline. Central banks must balance inflation control with inclusive growth, avoiding policies that disproportionately benefit asset holders.

The long-term consequences of a K-shaped economy are significant. Persistent inequality can erode trust in institutions, fuel populism, and hinder social mobility. Economic growth may slow if large segments of the population remain underemployed or financially insecure. To build a resilient and inclusive future, governments, businesses, and civil society must collaborate to ensure that recovery lifts all boats—not just the yachts.

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ECONOMICS: Micro V. Micro Differences

Posted on October 20, 2025 by Dr. David Edward Marcinko MBA MEd CMP™

By Dr. David Edward Marcinko MBA MEd

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Understanding the Differences Between Microeconomics and Macroeconomics

Economics is the study of how societies allocate scarce resources to meet the needs and wants of individuals. It is broadly divided into two main branches: microeconomics and macroeconomics. While both aim to understand economic behavior and decision-making, they differ significantly in scope, focus, and application. Understanding these differences is essential for grasping how economies function at both individual and national levels.

2025 Nobel: https://medicalexecutivepost.com/2025/10/14/nobel-prize-economics-2025/

Microeconomics: The Study of Individual Units

Microeconomics focuses on the behavior of individual economic agents—such as consumers, firms, and households—and how they make decisions regarding resource allocation. It examines how these entities interact in specific markets, how prices are determined, and how supply and demand influence economic outcomes.

Key concepts in microeconomics include:

Demand and Supply: Microeconomics analyzes how the quantity of goods demanded by consumers and the quantity supplied by producers interact to determine market prices.
Elasticity: This measures how responsive demand or supply is to changes in price or income.
Consumer Behavior: Microeconomics studies how individuals make choices based on preferences, budget constraints, and utility maximization.
Production and Costs: It explores how firms decide on the optimal level of output and the costs associated with production.
Market Structures: Microeconomics categorizes markets into perfect competition, monopolistic competition, oligopoly, and monopoly, each with distinct characteristics and implications for pricing and output.

Microeconomic analysis is crucial for understanding how specific sectors operate, how businesses strategize, and how consumers respond to changes in prices or income. For example, a company might use microeconomic principles to determine the price point that maximizes profit or to assess the impact of a new competitor entering the market.

Macroeconomics: The Study of the Economy as a Whole

Macroeconomics, on the other hand, deals with the performance, structure, and behavior of an entire economy. It looks at aggregate indicators and phenomena, such as national income, unemployment, inflation, and economic growth. Macroeconomics seeks to understand how the economy functions at a broad level and how government policies can influence economic outcomes.

Key areas of macroeconomics include:

Gross Domestic Product (GDP): This measures the total value of goods and services produced within a country and serves as a key indicator of economic health.
Unemployment: Macroeconomics examines the causes and consequences of unemployment and the effectiveness of policies aimed at reducing it.
Inflation and Deflation: It studies changes in the general price level and their impact on purchasing power and economic stability.
Fiscal and Monetary Policy: Macroeconomics evaluates how government spending, taxation, and central bank actions influence economic activity.
International Trade and Finance: It explores exchange rates, trade balances, and the impact of globalization on national economies.

Macroeconomic analysis is essential for policymakers, economists, and financial institutions. For instance, central banks use macroeconomic data to set interest rates, while governments design fiscal policies to stimulate growth or curb inflation.

TRILEMMA Economics

Interdependence Between Micro and Macro

Despite their differences, microeconomics and macroeconomics are deeply interconnected. Micro-level decisions collectively shape macroeconomic outcomes. For example, widespread consumer spending boosts aggregate demand, influencing GDP and employment levels. Conversely, macroeconomic conditions—such as inflation or interest rates—affect individual behavior. A rise in interest rates may discourage borrowing and reduce consumer spending, impacting businesses at the micro level.

Economists often use insights from both branches to develop comprehensive models and forecasts. For instance, understanding consumer behavior (micro) helps predict changes in aggregate consumption (macro), which in turn informs policy decisions.

Austrian Economics: https://medicalexecutivepost.com/2025/10/11/keynesian-versus-austrian-economics/

Conclusion

Microeconomics and macroeconomics offer distinct yet complementary perspectives on economic activity. Microeconomics provides a granular view of individual decision-making and market dynamics, while macroeconomics offers a broader understanding of national and global economic trends. Together, they form the foundation of economic theory and practice, guiding businesses, governments, and individuals in making informed decisions.

HEALTH ECONOMICS: Who Should Study and Learn this Dismal Science?

A well-rounded grasp of both branches is essential for anyone seeking to understand how economies function and evolve in an increasingly complex world.

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OCTOBER: The 2025 Stock Market Crash

Posted on October 13, 2025 by Dr. David Edward Marcinko MBA MEd CMP™

By A.I. and Staff Reporters

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The October 2025 Stock Market Crash: A Perfect Storm of Geopolitics and Investor Panic

The weekend of October 10–12, 2025, marked one of the most dramatic downturns in global financial markets in recent memory. What began as a series of unsettling headlines quickly snowballed into a full-blown market crash, sending shockwaves through economies and portfolios worldwide. This event was not the result of a single catalyst but rather a convergence of geopolitical tensions, speculative excess, and investor psychology.

At the heart of the crisis was a sudden escalation in U.S.–China trade relations. President Donald Trump abruptly canceled a scheduled diplomatic meeting with Chinese President Xi Jinping and announced a sweeping 100% tariff on all Chinese imports. This move reignited fears of a prolonged trade war, reminiscent of the economic standoff that rattled markets in the late 2010s. Investors, already jittery from months of uncertainty, interpreted the announcement as a signal of deteriorating global cooperation and retaliatory economic measures to come.

VIX: https://medicalexecutivepost.com/2025/10/12/vix-the-stock-market-fear-gauge/

The impact was immediate and severe. Major U.S. indices plummeted: the S&P 500 dropped 2.7%, the Nasdaq fell 3.6%, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average lost 1.9%. These declines marked the worst single-day performance since April and triggered automatic trading halts in several sectors. The selloff was not confined to the United States; European and Asian markets mirrored the panic, with steep losses across the board.

Compounding the crisis was a massive liquidation in the cryptocurrency market. As traditional assets tumbled, investors rushed to offload digital holdings, leading to the largest crypto wipeout in history. Trillions of dollars in value evaporated within hours, further destabilizing investor confidence and draining liquidity from the broader financial system.

Another underlying factor was growing concern over the valuation of artificial intelligence (AI) stocks. The International Monetary Fund (IMF) had recently issued a warning that the AI sector was exhibiting signs of a speculative bubble, drawing parallels to the dot-com era. With many AI companies trading at astronomical price-to-earnings ratios, the crash exposed the fragility of investor sentiment and the dangers of overexuberance in emerging technologies.

Perhaps most telling was the psychological shift among investors. The weekend saw widespread capitulation, with many choosing to exit the market entirely rather than weather further volatility. This behavior—marked by fear-driven decision-making and herd mentality—is often a hallmark of deeper financial crises. It underscores the importance of trust and stability in maintaining market equilibrium.

Abbvie: https://medicalexecutivepost.com/2024/09/04/abbvie-the-economic-recession/

In conclusion, the October 2025 stock market crash was a multifaceted event driven by geopolitical shocks, speculative risk, and emotional contagion. It serves as a stark reminder of how interconnected and fragile global markets have become. As policymakers and investors assess the damage, the focus must shift toward restoring confidence, recalibrating risk, and ensuring that future growth is built on sustainable foundations rather than speculative fervor.

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STOCK MARKET: Beware Manipulation Schemes

Posted on September 10, 2025 by Dr. David Edward Marcinko MBA MEd CMP™

By Dr. David Edward Marcinko MBA MEd CMP™

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What are types of market manipulation schemes?

Pump and Dump

When owners of a security spread false information to pump up the price of the security and subsequently sell off their shares, making a profit—the “dump.”
Would you like to learn more about pump and dump schemes? Check out some real-world examples.
PUMP DUMP: https://medicalexecutivepost.com/2022/12/16/pumpers-dumpers-social-media-influencers-charged-in-scheme/

Bear Raids

Refer to attempts by investors to move the price of a stock opportunistically by selling large numbers of shares short. The investors pocket the difference between the initial price and the new, lower price after this maneuver. This technique is illegal under SEC rules, which stipulate that every short sale must be on an uptick. For more information on this complex tactic, read on in this piece from the Wharton School of Business.

Wash Trading

Involves the simultaneous or near-simultaneous sale and repurchase of the same security for the purpose of generating activity and increasing the price.
CHURNING: https://medicalexecutivepost.com/2021/10/25/churning-front-running-and-pumping-dumping/

Matched Orders

When fraudsters manipulate the market through matched orders, they enter trades to buy or sell securities with the knowledge that a matching order on the opposite side has been or will be entered. During his tenure at the Commission, our partner Jordan Thomas was involved in a case where the SEC won summary judgement and obtained settlements with an astonishing 16 defendants who engaged in matched trades, among other illicit tactics.

Painting the Tape

Painting the tape refers to placing successive orders in small amounts at increasing or decreasing prices.

Spoofing & Layering

High frequency traders are known to use the tactics of Spoofing & Layering to manipulate share prices. Spoofing is the placing of a bid or offer with the intent to cancel before execution. Layering is a form of spoofing in which the trader places multiple orders on one side of the book, in order to create a false impression of heavy buying or selling.
PONZI: https://medicalexecutivepost.com/2021/09/22/what-exactly-is-a-ponzi-scheme/

If the Government Can Take A 15% Cut From Nvidia, Who Is Next?

Posted on August 31, 2025 by Dr. David Edward Marcinko MBA MEd CMP™

By Rick Kahler; MSFP CFP™

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This month, the U.S. government demanded a direct cut of a company’s foreign sales as the price for letting those sales happen.

Tech companies Nvidia and AMD had been stuck in regulatory limbo over selling their newest AI chips to China. According to an August 12, 2025, Reuters article by Karen Freifeld, Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang had even received a public “green light” for the company’s H20 chip, but the Commerce Department would not issue the export licenses.

The stalemate ended only after Huang met with President Trump and agreed to a deal: the licenses would be granted, but the U.S. Treasury would get 15% of all H20 revenue from China. AMD agreed to identical terms for its MI308 chip. Two days later, both companies had their licenses.

The numbers are staggering. Bernstein Research estimates Nvidia could sell $15 billion worth of H20 chips in China this year, and AMD about $800 million of MI308s. That is more than $2 billion flowing straight to Washington, not as taxes but as a contractual price for market access. The legality of this arrangement is questionable, and the deal also raises security concerns.

It is worth noting the administration first asked for 20% before “settling” on 15%. This was not a polite request but a “take it or leave it” demand. From a behavioral economics standpoint, the decision was predictable. The pain of losing an entire market is far greater than the pain of losing a fraction of it.

How is this any different from a tariff? A tariff is a standardized, legally defined tax that applies broadly to certain goods and is collected under public trade policy. This 15% cut is a one-off, privately negotiated condition aimed at just two companies, tied to export license approval. It is taken from gross revenue, not profit, meaning the government gets paid on every dollar of sales before the companies cover a single expense.

“Tax farmming” is an old practice where the state sold the right to collect taxes for a fixed sum, allowing the collectors to keep the rest. Its use in France made some people enormously rich, made everyone else furious, and eventually helped spark the French Revolution. Similar systems appeared in Ottoman Egypt, Qing China, and the early Dutch Republic until abuses finally brought them down.

The Nvidia/AMD deal is not exactly tax farming, but it is a similar dynamic. The government’s role is no longer just regulating. It is stepping in as a business partner, taking a direct share of private sales. Supporters might call it a smart use of national leverage. Critics will see a step away from free-market capitalism toward something more political and transactional.

Nor is this deal a one-off. In June, the administration approved foreign investment in U.S. Steel only after securing a “golden share” that gives it veto power over strategic corporate decisions. History teaches us that once a government finds a way to take a cut, it rarely stops with one sector. Today it is steel and AI chips to China. Tomorrow it could be pharmaceuticals, energy, or consumer goods.

What is the likely impact for average Americans? Money flowing to the U.S. Treasury from a source other than taxpayers may seem like a benefit. Yet any company required to give away 15% of its gross revenue, which could equal its entire profit, has to compensate in some way. The most likely result is higher prices. Hiking prices on computer chips sold to China may not seem to be a big deal—until you consider that many of the products that use those chips are sold to U.S. consumers.

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When Economic Facts Become Political Opinions: A Financial Advisor’s Dilemma

Posted on July 22, 2025 by Dr. David Edward Marcinko MBA MEd CMP™

By Rick Kahler MSFP CFP™

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QUESTION: “How will this administration’s trade policies affect my retirement savings?” “What does it mean for our plans to travel internationally if the value of the dollar declines?” “Is it wise to borrow right now to expand my business?”

Clients who ask questions like these expect and deserve honest answers from their financial advisors. Their financial and retirement planning depend on accurate information. Yet in the current polarized and chaotic climate, every economic explanation carries potential political interpretations.

Historically, political parties and administrations debated policies on taxes, spending, and regulation. Yet they shared a basic understanding of core mechanisms. Both parties recognized that central banks fight inflation, that tariffs raise prices, and that court rulings are binding. Disagreements focused on applications and political philosophies, not fundamental aspects of our governmental system and the rule of law.

That consensus has collapsed.

This distortion creates a professional bind for advisors. To fulfill their fiduciary duty to clients, advisors must explain economic realities like the link between tariffs and increased consumer costs. They owe it to clients to consider the impact on the U.S. dollar when a president threatens the independence of the Federal Reserve. They should be aware of information such as a CNBC survey that found 66% of small business owners reported being or expecting to be impacted by tariffs. They cannot ignore the difficulties of making business and investment decisions when policies change almost daily and legal rulings are delayed or ignored.

Considering the ramifications of political decisions on clients’ affairs is not an abstract concern. When international confidence in American institutions is wavering and U.S. business owners are uncertain, the consequences affect real money in the accounts of real people.

Yet talking about such issues may trigger accusations of partisanship. Many people get the bulk of their political and economic information from social media and from competitive news outlets that may be as much entertainment as journalism. The biases in some of these sources go so far beyond partisan leanings that they offer conflicting information purporting to be factual. What was once a neutral middle ground where essential facts were agreed upon has become harder to find, particularly when reporting covers politics and the economy.

That neutral territory is exactly where responsible financial advisors need to get the facts on which they base their advice. It’s challenging to stay there if clients are getting their news from outlets that are strongly biased toward either end of the political spectrum. Nuanced explanations can be interpreted as bias or context seen as spin. For the advisor whose information is questioned, remaining silent fails the client. Speaking truthfully risks the relationship with the client.

I have seen advisors lose clients, on both ends of the political spectrum, when advisors and clients held different views. The professional cost of maintaining standards has become substantial.

The financial planning profession faces an unprecedented challenge. Our traditional advisory principles assume a shared understanding of economic fundamentals. That foundation is no longer solid, and trust in advisors’ expertise is eroding.

These disruptions raise a core question. Should financial advisors prioritize economic truth over client comfort or client retention? Or should they accommodate clients’ political sensitivity and compromise the integrity of the advice they provide? Either path risks the loss of clients and revenue.

The choice is not theoretical. It defines the advisor’s professional identity and the quality of financial guidance itself. When economic mechanisms are politicized, the profession’s standards weaken and client service suffers.

The stakes are clear. This is a conflict over whether facts still function as the basis of financial advice.

The resolution will determine whether financial planning remains a profession or becomes another form of political posturing.

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Do Political Biases Shape Your Financial Planner’s Advice?

Posted on July 19, 2025 by Dr. David Edward Marcinko MBA MEd CMP™

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Stocks, Economy and Commodities

Posted on June 20, 2025 by Dr. David Edward Marcinko MBA MEd CMP™

By AI

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Stocks: Investors looked past the escalating conflict between Iran and Israel, even as President Trump mulled his options for a US intervention, and stocks rose ahead of today’s Federal Reserve meeting.
Economy: Trump called Jerome Powell “a stupid person” hours before the Fed Chair decided to keep interest rates where they were Stocks fell thanks to the Fed’s prediction that inflation will rise to 3.1% by the end of the year, above previous forecasts of 2.8%.
Commodities: Gold fell just a hair as analysts called the commodity’s top, while platinum climbed to a four-year high.

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CORRELATION: Diversification in Finance and Investments

Posted on June 17, 2025 by Dr. David Edward Marcinko MBA MEd CMP™

By Staff Reporters

SPONSOR: http://www.MarcinkoAssociates.com

DEFINITION

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Correlation measures the relationship between two investments–the higher the correlation, the more likely they are to move in the same direction for a given set of economic or market events. Correlation, in the finance and investment industries, is a statistic that measures the degree to which two securities move in relation to each other. Correlations are used in advanced portfolio management, computed as the correlation coefficient which has a value that must fall between -1.0 and +1.0.

So if two securities are highly positively correlated, they will move in the same direction the vast majority of the time. Negatively correlated investments do the opposite–as one security rises, the other falls, and vice versa. No correlation means there is no relationship between the movement of two securities–the performance of one security has no bearing on the performance of the other.

CAUSATION: https://medicalexecutivepost.com/2024/06/05/correlation-is-not-causation/

Correlation is an important concept for portfolio diversification--combining assets with low or negative correlations can improve risk-adjusted performance over time by providing a diversity of payouts under the same financial conditions.

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STAGFLATION? Slow Growth, High Unemployment and Rising Prices.

Posted on May 21, 2025 by Dr. David Edward Marcinko MBA MEd CMP™

DEFINED

By Staff Reporters

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Stocks ticked down yesterday, ending a six-day rally after some influential CEOs—including JPMorgan Chase’s Jamie Dimon—warned that markets have grown too complacent about tariffs and potential stagflation. But it was a spectacular day for Warby Parker, which climbed more than 15% after Google announced it’s partnering with the eyewear company on ~~Google Glass (RIP)~~ a new smart glasses device.

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Stagflation is the simultaneous appearance in an economy of slow growth, high unemployment, and rising prices.
Once thought by economists to be impossible, stagflation has occurred repeatedly in the developed world since the 1970s.
Policy solutions for slow growth tend to worsen inflation, and vice versa. That makes stagflation hard to fight.

Stagflation is the combination of high inflation, stagnant economic growth, and elevated unemployment.

The term stagflation, a blend of “stagnation” and “inflation,” was popularized by British politician Lain MacLeod in the 1960s, during a period of economic distress in the United Kingdom. It gained broader recognition in the 1970s after a series of global economic shocks, particularly the 1973 oil crisis, which disrupted supply chains and led to rising prices and slowing growth. Stagflation challenges traditional economic theories, which suggest that inflation and unemployment are inversely related, as depicted by the Phillips Curve.

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According to Wikipedia, stagflation presents a policy dilemma, as measures to curb inflation—such as tightening monetary policy—can exacerbate unemployment, while policies aimed at reducing unemployment may fuel inflation.

In economic theory, there are two main explanations for stagflation: supply shocks, such as a sharp increase in oil prices, and misguided government policies that hinder industrial output while expanding the money supply too rapidly.

NOTE: A portmanteau word or part of a word made by combining the spellings and meanings of two or more other words or word parts (such as smog from smoke and fog).

MORE: https://medicalexecutivepost.com/2019/06/25/what-is-a-portmanteau/

The stagflation of the 1970s led to a re-evaluation of Keynesian economic policies and contributed to the rise of alternative economic theories, including monetarism and supply-side economics.

PHILLIPS CURVE: https://medicalexecutivepost.com/2024/10/04/about-the-phillips-curve/

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DAILY UPDATE: UnitedHealth Group Alert as Stocks End Slightly Mixed

Posted on May 16, 2025 by Dr. David Edward Marcinko MBA MEd CMP™

MEDICAL EXECUTIVE-POST – TODAY’S NEWSLETTER BRIEFING

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Essays, Opinions and Curated News in Health Economics, Investing, Business, Management and Financial Planning for Physician Entrepreneurs and their Savvy Advisors and Consultants

“Serving Almost One Million Doctors, Financial Advisors and Medical Management Consultants Daily“

A Partner of the Institute of Medical Business Advisors , Inc.

SPONSORED BY: Marcinko & Associates, Inc.

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Daily Update Provided By Staff Reporters Since 2007.
How May We Serve You?

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The Justice Department is investigating UnitedHealth Group for possible criminal Medicare fraud, the WSJ reported. The healthcare-fraud unit of the Justice Department’s criminal division is overseeing the investigation and it has been an active probe since at least last summer. Apparently the federal investigation is focusing on the company’s Medicare Advantage business practices. UnitedHealth said in a statement it hadn’t been notified by the Justice Department of the criminal investigation. The statement said the company stands “by the integrity of the Medicare Advantage program.”

CITE: https://tinyurl.com/2h47urt5

🟢 What’s up

Foot Locker exploded 85.70% on the news that Dick’s Sporting Goods will acquire the footwear retailer for $2.4 billion. Dick’s shares sank 14.58%.
Speaking of shoes, Boot Barn soared 16.66% thanks to the Western footwear seller’s record revenue last quarter.
And in more shoe news, Birkenstock gained 5.89% after the purveyor of the world’s ugliest sandals missed revenue estimates but beat on profits.
Under Armour rose 4.47% after the sportswear retailer issued a “meh” earnings report and pulled its fiscal forecast.
Cisco climbed 4.85% after the networking company beat Wall Street analysts’ expectations and also issued better-than-expected fiscal guidance.
Hopefully you botta ’da stock: Ibotta rocketed 20.01% higher on strong earnings for the cash-back app.

What’s down

Apple fell 0.41% on news that President Trump scolded Tim Cook for trying to build iPhones in India.
Meta Platforms dropped 2.35% thanks to a Wall Street Journal report that the social media giant has delayed the debut of its flagship AI model.
UnitedHealth Group plummeted 10.93% on a Wall Street Journal report that the health insurer is being investigated for criminal Medicare fraud.
Ubisoft plunged 13.28% after the video game studio reported a 20.5% decline in net bookings last quarter.
Coinbase crumbled 7.20% on news that hackers bribed employees to steal customer information and that it will take $400 million to fix the mess.
DXC Technology sank 3.26% thanks to shockingly low fiscal guidance from the IT company.
Fiserv’s CFO said that the fintech’s retail payment system will see similar volume next quarter. Shareholders hoping for stronger growth were disappointed and pushed shares down 16.19%.

Visualize: How private equity tangled banks in a web of debt, from the Financial Times.

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Why Tariffs Won’t Bring Back the “Good Old Days”

Posted on May 14, 2025 by Dr. David Edward Marcinko MBA MEd CMP™

By Rick Kahler MSFP CFP™

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If I had a dollar for every time someone referred to the “good old days,” of the American economy, I could probably buy a vintage diner, jukebox and all, and still have enough left for a slice of apple pie.

The newest round of on-again, off-again tariffs is built around that same kind of nostalgia. Slapping big taxes on goods from other countries will supposedly protect American jobs and industries. The aim is to bring factories back, boost wages, and make the country more self-reliant.

This is a powerful story that taps into a deep feeling that we’ve lost control. Supporters argue that the U.S. has opened its markets and played by the rules, allowing many other countries to prosper at its expense, while America has been in a long, slow economic decline. This story frames the U.S. as a victim, with tariffs a form of payback to punish countries that have “taken advantage of us.”

Except that story is a myth. Rather than punishing foreign economies, the pain of tariffs hits Americans at home. Our businesses face costlier goods, consumers pay higher prices at the store, and the ripple effects include falling sales, layoffs, and frayed trade relationships.

In addition, the U.S. economy has actually been booming. Over the past three decades, the U.S. has pulled far ahead of most developed nations. In 2008, the American economy was about the same size as the Eurozone’s. Today, it’s nearly twice as large. Wages have risen. Even the poorest U.S. state now has a higher per-person income than countries like France, Japan, or the U.K.

So why do so many people still feel like we’re falling behind?

First, the growth hasn’t reached everyone, especially in rural America. In some areas and industries, jobs have disappeared and opportunities have dwindled.

Second, many people who are doing okay themselves have bought into a powerful, repeated myth that things are going terribly for everyone else.

This narrative takes hold in people’s internal voices, the parts of themselves shaped by past pain, fear, or frustration. Tariffs, then, can feel like a way to stand up and take action. It makes perfect sense to want to relieve anxiety by shutting the world out and protecting what is left.

Yet, when we act from fear or anger without pausing to reflect, we tend to overcorrect or trade one set of problems for another. This is what many economists and business leaders see happening with tariffs. Even supporters of tariffs are beginning to admit they’re a gamble. Many are still willing to take that gamble if it means restoring something they feel they’ve lost, a sense of purpose, security, and control.

Reacting out of fear in this way is not likely to create lasting solutions. A more challenging but more productive approach would be to take time to listen with compassion to those inner voices, helping them move past anxiety to find answers based in truth rather than myth. Maybe real liberation comes from letting go of narratives that no longer serve us, choosing a future built on connection, courage, and clarity.

Because if we keep heading down an isolationist path, turning inward out of fear, the future might not be the golden age we imagine. It might look a lot more like the actual 1950s, before the civil rights movement, before women fully entered the workforce, before the innovations that made the U.S. economy a global leader. A time more isolated, less equal, and far less dynamic than the one we’ve come to idealize.

That’s a version of the past we don’t need to relive, no matter what nostalgic song is playing on the jukebox.

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The Deeper Damage From a Declining Dollar

Posted on May 7, 2025 by Dr. David Edward Marcinko MBA MEd CMP™

By Rick Kahler CFP™ MSFP

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DECLINE OF THE DOLLAR

On-again, off-again tariffs. Rising prices. Dramatic market swings. The anxiety-producing headlines come so fast it’s hard to know what to worry about first. Meanwhile, one serious consequence of all this chaos is going almost unnoticed. That is the decline of the dollar.

Since the start of this year, the value of the U.S. dollar has slipped more than 10% against other major currencies. That drop is not just an economic statistic. It affects all Americans’ daily lives.

People are feeling the pinch of rising prices at checkout lines, gas stations, and shipping counters. But there isn’t a full understanding of why. Tariffs are only half the story. The weakening dollar amplifies those price increases even further.

For years, the dollar remained strong even as the national debt ballooned. It benefited from its reputation as a safe haven, from global demand, and from U.S. interest rates. But much of that strength, as we now see, was fragile—propped up more by perception than fundamentals. In April, sweeping tariffs triggered a sharp market correction, and the dollar suddenly fell to its lowest point in over three years. Market confidence vanished overnight.

This was more than a market reaction. It signaled a collapse in trust—not just in policy, but in principle. It is no longer a given that the U.S. will act with consistency, reason, and long-term responsibility. What’s unraveling is both our country’s financial credibility and the moral foundation that underpinned it.

When a currency represents a nation, its value reflects more than economics. It reflects governance, accountability, stability, and integrity. When the dollar stumbles, it speaks to who we are, and whether we can still be counted on.

Yet, most people aren’t talking about the decline of the dollar. This may come from being overwhelmed, choosing to ignore even more bad news, or actually believing that this is a necessary step in making things better. It is not.

We all respond differently to financial uncertainty. Some lean into hyper-vigilance—tightening budgets, tracking every headline. Others shut down, turning toward distraction. Still others press on as if nothing has changed. These are all natural human reactions.

They are not the same as leadership. And leadership—internal and external—is what’s needed now. Not panic. Not blame. Just the courage to face where we are and the willingness to start again from there.

But leadership is in short supply in Washington, where many in both parties remain silent. Some fear political retribution from the administration, others fear backlash from increasingly extreme and vocal constituencies. That silence costs us all.

A respected government official recently told me that, while some of the domestic damage to our economy could be repaired within a few years, rebuilding global confidence in the United States may take a generation. That is a reflection of the rapid erosion of trust that has already happened in the last three months. Trust that took decades to build has been unwound in a matter of weeks. Even if we reversed every policy decision tomorrow, the damage is done.

We cannot change what’s already happened. We can still choose to show up. To pay attention. To have the hard conversations. To lead our own financial lives with more clarity, integrity, and intention than before. That kind of personal leadership may not fix the dollar. But it can help rebuild what underlies its value: trust, steadiness, and the moral grounding we’ve begun to lose.

Because the dollar’s decline is more than an economic headline.

It’s a story about who we are—and whether we’re ready to live with open eyes in a world where the old assumptions no longer hold.

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CONSUMERS: Worried about the Economy

Posted on April 30, 2025 by Dr. David Edward Marcinko MBA MEd CMP™

By Staff Reporters

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Consumer sentiment is a statistical measurement of the overall health of the economy as determined by consumer opinion. It takes into account how people feel about their current financial health, the health of the economy in the short-term, and the prospects for longer-term economic growth. It is widely considered to be a useful economic indicator.

Consumer sentiment emerged as an economic statistic during the mid-20th century and has since become a barometer that influences public and economic policy. It is considered a lagging indicator because it takes people several months to notice and feel the effects of changes in economic activity.

American consumers are Worried about the Economy

Consumer sentiment dropped 8% from March to April amid worries about inflation, according to the University of Michigan’s closely watched survey. Though sentiment edged up slightly from an even lower reading earlier in the month, inflation expectations climbed to their highest since 1991 as consumers fret about the potential impact of tariffs.

And even beyond possible rising prices, things could be about to get rougher for consumers: Major retailers have warned that unless President Trump’s tariff policy toward China changes, they’re likely to encounter empty store shelves in a few weeks.

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FEAR BASED GOLD FEVER: Protect Yourself

Posted on April 27, 2025 by Dr. David Edward Marcinko MBA MEd CMP™

By Rick Kahler CFP™

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On January 21, 1980, in what I thought was a brilliant financial move, I bought gold. At what was then an all-time high of $873 an ounce.

Fast forward 45 years, and here we are again. Gold is on a tear, priced just over $3,000 an ounce at the time of this writing. It needs to rise another 16% to reach its inflation-adjusted record and many analysts think it might just get there.

What’s driving this gold rally? The same thing that drove it in 1980—fear.

Back then, the U.S. was grappling with rising inflation, double-digit price increases, and interest rates in the high teens. Investors feared that the dollar and stock market would collapse, that their hard-earned savings would erode into oblivion, and that gold was a safe haven. Sound familiar?

Today, inflation is less dramatic and the stock market would have to go a long way down to even register as a bear market, but it’s still a major concern. Central banks are buying gold at record levels. Gold-backed ETFs, which had been seeing years of outflows, are finally pulling investors back in.

For most, gold isn’t just an investment, it’s an emotional hedge against uncertainty. Back in 1980, I wasn’t thinking about long-term strategy. I was reacting to fear. Inflation had hit 14%, and like many others, I was convinced the dollar would soon be worthless. Gold, I thought, was my best shot at preserving wealth.

The problem? Inflation eventually cooled; it had dropped to an average of 3.5% by the mid-1980s. Gold prices tumbled along with it. Investors who, like me, bought at the peak, 45 years later still haven’t broken even on an inflation-adjusted basis. (My $873 purchase price, adjusted for inflation, equates to $3,580 today.) If I had stuck with a well-diversified portfolio, I likely would have fared much better over time.

Over the years, I’ve come to realize that our financial decisions aren’t just about numbers. They’re deeply influenced by our Internal Financial System™, a framework that helps explain why we handle money the way we do. I now see that my decision to buy gold was a battle between different financial “parts” of myself.

One part panicked, convinced that money was about to become worthless. Another saw gold prices soaring and didn’t want to miss out. Yet another part convinced me that buying at the peak was still a smart move. Had I paused and examined these internal voices, I might have made a different decision.

My gold purchase shows why emotionally driven investment decisions rarely lead to great financial outcomes. Instead of asking, “Is gold a smart long-term investment?” I was asking, “How do I make sure I don’t lose everything?” Those are two very different questions.

If you’re thinking about buying gold, I urge you to consider these questions:

“Am I investing from a place of fear or strategy?” If you’re rushing in because you’re scared of inflation, pause and reassess.

“How does gold fit into my broader financial plan?” Gold can be a great hedge—if held in appropriate amounts in a diversified portfolio. It is best viewed as catastrophic financial insurance, rather than an investment.

“Am I reacting to headlines or making a well-thought-out decision?” The financial media loves a good gold rally. But remember, markets move in cycles. Today’s rally may be history repeating itself.

Back in 1980, fear persuaded me that gold was a sure thing. I forgot an essential caveat—there are no sure things in investing. If bad market timing were an Olympic sport, I’d have taken home the gold (pun intended) for least profitable performance.

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STOCK MARKET: Panic Buying Apple A18 Processor iPhones

Posted on April 9, 2025 by Dr. David Edward Marcinko MBA MEd CMP™

By Staff Reporters

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Just after midnight, President Trump’s “reciprocal” tariffs went into effect against 86 countries. Analysts have estimated that the new US average effective tariff rate is north of 20%, the highest in more than 100 years. Ahead of the tariff deadline, markets swung violently, mostly way down: According to Bloomberg’s Cameron Crise, yesterday was the fourth straight trading day when the S&P 500’s trading range was 5% or more. That’s only happened in 1987, 2008, and 2020.

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The Apple A18 and Apple A18 Pro are a pair of 64-bit ARM-based system on a chip (SoC) designed by Apple Inc., part of the Apple silicon series. They are used in the iPhone 16 and iPhone 16 Pro lineups and the iPhone 16e, and built on a second generation 3 nm process by TSMC.

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Yesterday, for several hours on Tuesday, it looked like stocks were going to regain some of the ground lost during the market’s very bad week. But after the Trump administration made it clear that its increased tariffs on China would go into effect, all three indexes plunged. Apple, which makes most of its iPhones in China, was hit harder than many of its Big Tech peers.

So shoppers are thinking it’s better to have an Apple A18 processor and not need it, than to need it and not have it. Apple customers are scrambling to buy new iPhones out of fear that the company could raise prices to offset President Trump’s tariffs.

Employees at locations throughout the US said they’re being bombarded with questions about potential price hikes and have witnessed customers panic-buying phones. Though Apple declined to comment to Bloomberg, its retail stores reportedly saw higher sales over the last weekend than in previous years.

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PIFs & PIDs: Definitions with Video

Posted on March 21, 2025 by Dr. David Edward Marcinko MBA MEd CMP™

Beware – Public Improvement Fees

Beware – Public Improvement Districts

By Staff Reporters

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A Public Improvement Fee (PIF) is a fee that developers may require their tenants to collect on sales transactions to pay for on-site improvements. The PIF is a fee and NOT a tax; therefore, it becomes a part of the overall cost of the sale/service and is subject to sales tax

Examples of these improvements include curbs and sidewalks, parking facilities, storm management system, sanitary sewer systems, road development (within the site) and outdoor public plazas.

Video: https://www.tiktok.com/@hollyintheclouds/video/7206365328966700334

Public Improvement Districts (PIDs) are a financing mechanism used to fund new developments and infrastructure improvements. PIDs are relatively easy to create and can be done by the local municipality. A majority of property owners within the district may petition a local government to create the district. Bonds can then be issued to fund a development or infrastructure improvements. Through an industry analysis and view of the current political environment, PIDs are certainly a beneficial mechanism to fund projects otherwise not feasible due to constraints on city budgets. Local elected officials will want PIDs monitored and only used in proper circumstances.

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TAXATION: Avoidance V. Evasion V. Voluntary Compliance

Posted on March 20, 2025 by Dr. David Edward Marcinko MBA MEd CMP™

DEFINITION

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Tax avoidance—An action taken to lessen tax liability and maximize after-tax income.

Tax evasion—The failure to pay or a deliberate underpayment of taxes.

Underground economy—Money-making activities that people don’t report to the government, including both illegal and legal activities.

Voluntary compliance—A system of compliance that relies on individual citizens to report their income freely and voluntarily, calculate their tax liability correctly, and file a tax return on time.

MORE: https://apps.irs.gov/app/understandingTaxes/whys/thm01/les03/media/ws_ans_thm01_les03.pdf

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DAILY UPDATE: Inflation Leaps as Wall Street Worries

Posted on February 13, 2025 by Dr. David Edward Marcinko MBA MEd CMP™

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Consumer prices overall increased 3% from a year earlier, up from 2.9% the previous month, according to the Labor Department’s consumer price index, a measure of goods and service costs across the U.S. That’s the most since June and above the 2.9% expected by economists surveyed by Bloomberg.

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Most U.S. stocks fell Wednesday after a report showed inflation is unexpectedly worsening for Americans.

The S&P 500 dropped 0.3%, though it had been on track for a much worse loss of 1.1% at the start of trading. The Dow Jones Industrial Average sank 225 points, or 0.5%, while the NASDAQ composite edged higher by less than 0.1%

Visualize: How private equity tangled banks in a web of debt, from the Financial Times.

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DAILY UPDATE: Community Health Center Data Hack and CHIP Revocations as Markets Bounce Back

Posted on February 11, 2025 by Dr. David Edward Marcinko MBA MEd CMP™

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Community Health Center, Inc. (CHC) detected a data breach on Jan. 2 after identifying unusual activity within its computer systems. An investigation confirmed that a skilled hacker had accessed and extracted data but did not delete or lock any information. If CHC’s claims are accurate, this is a positive outcome, as hackers often deploy ransomware, a type of attack in which they lock systems and demand payment before restoring access.

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Over one million Floridians have had their health insurance revoked as a result of a nationwide disenrollment from coverage that was previously safeguarded as part of the COVID-19 pandemic response. Medicaid and Children’s Health Insurance Program (CHIP) enrolment in Florida has fallen from 5.1 million to 3.8 million between March 2023 and October 2024, according to health care research non-profit the Kaiser Family Foundation (KFF).

Escaping Stock Market Double Hell

US stocks bounced back on Monday as investors looked beyond President Trump’s latest tariff threats, including new levies on steel and aluminum imports.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average (^DJI) added nearly 0.4% after the blue-chip index on Friday booked its worst loss in nearly four weeks. The S&P 500 (^GSPC) rose roughly 0.6%, while the NASDAQ Composite (^IXIC) popped nearly 1% as shares of AI chip giant Nvidia (NVDA) surged 3%, along with other tech stocks.

Investors weighed Trump’s recent pledge to introduce additional 25% tariffs on steel and aluminum from all countries, with the official announcement expected on Monday.

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Escaping Stock Market Double Hell

Posted on January 30, 2025 by Dr. David Edward Marcinko MBA MEd CMP™

By Vitaliy Katsenelson CFA

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Over the last few years, our portfolio has skewed more international, and this is the topic I want to address today. The US is a wonderful country and has many significant competitive advantages over the rest of the world. Despite all of its flaws, it has the most stable political system. It has great geography: It’s bordered by friendly neighbors to the north and south, and by mostly friendly oceans to the east and west. It has an abundance of natural resources. It is one of the largest democracies and has the right amount of capitalism (though we’ve been slipping in this department). We have the best capital markets, and the US is the best place in the world to start a new business, take risks and innovate. These factors led to the coronation of the US dollar as the world’s reserve currency.Ideally, in a perfect world, we’d want to have a portfolio of only US companies. Not because we are patriots, but because our life at IMA would be so much easier. Let me explain all the extra headaches we incur when we own foreign stocks. European markets open 7–8 hours earlier than ours; Japan is 16 hours ahead.

Thus, we have to place orders early in the morning, sometimes in the middle of the night. Our trading system, which links directly to US exchanges, allows us to buy or sell any US stock electronically, directly through our software. It is not linked to foreign exchanges, thus foreign trading comes with significantly more friction and consumes more time. Foreign stocks have multiple tickers, which constantly confuse our clients – this means we receive more inbound inquiries on them. US trading comes with zero commissions, allowing us to accumulate a position slowly, in tiny increments, with little effort. Brokers charge commissions on foreign stocks, so we have to be sensitive to how we are accumulating or disposing of a stock. I am sure I am missing half a dozen other headaches.

Yes, foreign stocks are a big headache for the IMA team. We are not a masochistic bunch, so let me explain why we go through this brain and time damage.Over the last decade the US has attracted the bulk of the capital flows, and the US stock market is trading at one of the highest valuations in US history. Historically, returns that followed such sky-high valuations have been mediocre at best. I wrote two books on this subject. How much you pay for a business, even if it is a great one, is important, as it is one of the key inputs determining your future returns. When we look for stocks, our searches are global. We look at the US and at foreign markets that have the rule of law. But our goal is to buy the stock that offers the highest risk-adjusted returns. For us to buy a foreign stock, it has to compensate us for the extra time and trouble involved – in other words it has to be a super-attractive investment.

Let me give you a few examples.

When we looked at defense companies, we examined all of them, in the US and internationally. We bought a few in the US but found that European defense companies were a more compelling proposition. First of all, Europe has been sipping Chianti, Bordeaux, Riesling, and Earl Grey for the last thirty years while collecting peace dividends and significantly underinvesting in defense. The US, to a large degree, became NATO.We have more enemies today than at any time in my lifetime, and they are stronger (China has a bigger manufacturing base than the US) and aligning with each other. There is an unthinkable war in Europe, where one country attacked another to steal its territory. China is contemplating invading Taiwan – a tiny island that produces the bulk of the world’s semiconductors. The Middle East is on fire. Rebels most of us didn’t even know existed are making the Red Sea unnavigable.

And from the European perspective, the US is becoming a fickle friend. Europe is racing to create a $500 billion defense fund, per the FT:Trump’s threat to withdraw US security guarantees from underspending Nato allies has spurred European capitals to explore more radical defense funding options, including joint borrowing that has traditionally been ruled out by fiscal hawks in Germany, the Netherlands and Denmark.

European defense spending is going up and will continue to go up, no matter who is in power and regardless of deficits. Thus, when we looked at defense companies, American counterparts were more expensive and had relatively shorter (though increasing) growth runways. We bought European defense stocks, and so far, it looks like we made the right bet.

On the surface, one of the main risks of buying foreign stocks is that we are making a bet against the US dollar. As you’ll see, this is a bit more nuanced than simply where stocks are listed.I don’t know where the dollar will be over the next five or ten years. Nobody does. Currencies are priced relative to one another. Thus, to forecast the US dollar versus the euro, I’d need two crystal balls – one for the US and another for the EU. I don’t have even one.There are a lot of policies the new administration wants to implement that may cause the dollar to appreciate. For instance, less regulation – if Musk succeeds – would be a huge positive for US economic growth. We need a lot more pragmatism in Washington, DC, something we’ve lost over the years.

But then, the US government embracing Bitcoin is probably one of the most idiotic policy ideas I’ve ever seen come from a politician (though there are contenders). It’s especially baffling when you consider that the only reason we’re not dealing with 20% mortgage rates and 30% car loans – despite our $36 trillion (and growing) debt – is that the US dollar remains the world’s reserve currency. The US dollar doesn’t have good contenders, and this is why the US government watering the seeds of one makes little sense to me. (I wrote about the problems with Bitcoin here).

Also, often foreign stocks are only foreign in name. This is where things get nuanced fast. Philip Morris International (PM) is listed on the NYSE but today gets most of its sales from outside the US. British American Tobacco (BTI), listed in London and also trading as an ADR (American depositary receipt) in the US – despite having “British” in its name – gets half of its sales from the US and half from the rest of the world. We own Swedish and Canadian oil companies. When it comes to oil companies, the location of their assets matter far more than where the companies themselves are listed. Most of the oil assets that these companies hold are in Canada. We chose these companies not only because they’re significantly undervalued and have strong balance sheets, but also because they’re led by exceptional management teams who excel at running the business and at capital allocation – an uncommon trait in the commodity space.

Also, oil is a global commodity, and while many factors affect its price, it’s also indirectly a bet on a weakening US dollar, since oil is priced in US dollars. We have to take this into account when constructing our portfolio.Then we have a UK company that makes components for the aerospace industry.

However, aerospace is a global industry, and over the longer term, the company’s stock performance will be tied entirely to what the aerospace industry as a whole is doing. Its performance will be indifferent to where it’s listed. We bought it at a fraction of the valuation of its American counterparts.We pay close attention to our concentration in a particular country, as well as to our exposure to specific currencies and industries. But as you can see, it’s a lot more nuanced and intricate than simply looking at where a company is traded. Our default choice it to buy American companies; but at the end of the day, our goal is to grow your wealth while keeping the volatility of your blood pressure low, so that you don’t have to worry about the markets. Today the average US stock is trading at a nosebleed valuation. High-quality, undervalued, well-managed foreign-listed stocks are where we’re finding opportunities to hopefully achieve this goal, even if it means more headaches for the IMA team. One more thought: In the late 1990s, value investors experienced both paradise and hell. As tech and dotcom stocks soared higher, there were many cheap stocks to choose from that were neglected by the inflating bubble. That was the paradise part – an abundance of undervalued companies to pick from while the crowd stampeded into the bubble. The hell, of course, was the pain of being left behind while the crowd uncorked champagne.Today, if you only invest in the US, you’re experiencing two hells. Your stocks are underperforming, and even inexpensive stocks are expensive.

Yes, welcome to double hell. European stocks, however, offer paradise today. True, Europe is not the place it used to be a few decades ago – which is precisely why nuance and stock picking are so important. Value stocks always look less exciting than the ones everyone is talking about.

I’d love to hear your thoughts, so please leave your comment and feedback here. Also, if you missed my previous article “Embracing Stock Market Stoicism”, you can read it and leave a comment here.

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DAILY UPDATE: Healthcare Cyber Attacks as the FOMC Pauses Rates and Stock Markets Retreat

Posted on January 30, 2025 by Dr. David Edward Marcinko MBA MEd CMP™

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HAPPY LUNAR NEW YEAR

Over half the US population was affected by the Change Healthcare cyberattack last February, according to a statement from its parent company UnitedHealth Group. While United had told the federal government in October that 100 million people were hit by the attacks, an updated estimate on Monday put that number at 190 million.

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Tech stocks led markets lower on Wednesday as the broader mood stayed muted after the Federal Reserve’s latest interest rate decision saw the central bank keep rates unchanged in a range of 4.25%-4.5%.

The tech-heavy NASDAQ Composite (^IXIC) was down about 0.5%, retracing some of a bounce-back rally on Tuesday. The S&P 500 (^GSPC) was also down nearly 0.5%, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average (^DJI) lost 0.3%. In its statement on Wednesday, the Federal Reserve notably removed language from its December statement indicating that it was making progress towards its goal of 2% inflation, stating simply: “Inflation remains somewhat elevated.” Fed Chair Jerome Powell pushed back on that notion, referring to the change as “language cleanup” rather than intending to send a signal. Markets bounced off their lows of the day on Powell’s comments.

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CHINA: Central Bank Ceases Bond Buying as Sell-Off in US Treasury Bonds Stokes Wage Inflation and Wall Street Begins Tanking

Posted on January 10, 2025 by Dr. David Edward Marcinko MBA MEd CMP™

By Staff Reporters

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China’s 10-year bond yield plunged to a record low this month, while the Chinese currency [yuan] traded in Hong Kong on Wednesday hit its weakest against the U.S. dollar in more than a year.
The People’s Bank of China is “trying to cool down the market by suspending government bond buying,” said Larry Hu, chief China economist at Macquarie.
Cite: https://www.cnbc.com/2024/08/15/chinas-bond-market-intervention-reveals-financial-stability-worries.html?&doc=108084603

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And, the U.S. economy added a much larger-than-expected total of new hires last month, adding more upward pressure to wage inflation and likely stoking a further selloff in U.S. Treasury bonds.

The Bureau of Labor Statistics said 256,000 new jobs were created last month, well ahead Wall Street’s 164,000 forecast and the down-wardly revised 212,000 reading from November.

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Finally, Wall Street’s major averages are tumbling today as investors digested the hotter than expected jobs report. Early on and the S&P 500 (SP500) was -1.7%, the NASDAQ Composite (COMP:IND) was -2.2%, and the Dow (DJI) was -1.3%.

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K SHAPED: Economy and Recovery

Posted on January 2, 2025 by Dr. David Edward Marcinko MBA MEd CMP™

By Staff Reporters

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Understanding the K-shaped Economy

According to Olivia Voltaggio, in a V-shaped economy, things go down but then bounce back for everyone. In a K-shaped economy, the overall economy might go down. Only some parts of it recover, while others keep struggling.

In a K-shaped economy, people’s financial situations vary widely. Not everyone faces the same struggles. Lenders and financial institutions need to be flexible with strategy. They need to understand the different challenges their customers are dealing with.

Navigate with caution: The gaps in economic recovery highlight the importance of taking a careful, strategic approach.

How did we end up with a K-shaped recovery in 2024?

Inflation-driven price increases seem to be getting more stable. But, they may not reach the goal set by the government until 2026. This has made things more expensive for regular families.

For example, people with student loan debt had to start paying it back in October 2023. This was after a pandemic-induced grace period. Student loan repayment made budgeting harder. Borrowers might need to spend more on average than expected. For young adults (Gen Z), it could be even more.

Finally, more people are using credit cards because things are getting more expensive. Some are struggling to pay their credit card bills on time.

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LUCAS Paradox

Posted on December 31, 2024 by Dr. David Edward Marcinko MBA MEd CMP™

By Staff Reporters

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The Lucas Paradox occurs when capital is not flowing from developed countries to developing countries despite the fact that developing countries have lower levels of capital per worker, and therefore higher returns to capital.

According to Wikipedia, economic theory predicts that capital should flow from rich countries to poor countries, due to the effect of diminishing returns of capital. Poor countries have lower levels of capital per worker – which explains, in part, why they are poor. In poor countries, the scarcity of capital relative to labor should mean that the returns related to the infusion of capital are higher than in developed countries.

In response, savers in rich countries should look at poor countries as profitable places in which to invest. In reality, things do not seem to work that way. Surprisingly little capital flows from rich countries to poor countries. This puzzle was famously discussed in a paper by Robert Lucas PhD in 1990.

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DAILY UPDATE: Covid-19 Update as Stock Markets Fall Again and US Treasury Hacked

Posted on December 31, 2024 by Dr. David Edward Marcinko MBA MEd CMP™

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Stat: 4 in 10. That’s about how many US nursing home residents got an updated Covid-19 vaccine in the winter of 2023–24, according to the CDC, despite the recommendation that adults 65 and older get the new shot. (KFF)

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Stocks fell on Monday, with the woes of the three major indexes continuing in the final week of the year as an otherwise strong 2024 comes to a close.

The benchmark S&P 500 (^GSPC) slipped more than 1% while the tech-heavy NASDAQ Composite (^IXIC) fell roughly 1.2%. The Dow Jones Industrial Average (^DJI) fell about 0.8%.

Stocks moved lower as the 10-year Treasury yield (^TNX) retreated from a seven-month high to hover near 4.55%. Stocks closed out last week with a Friday slide from Big Tech names like Tesla (TSLA) and Nvidia (NVDA), with the NASDAQ Composite falling 1.5% and the S&P 500 down over 1%.

The highly anticipated “Santa Claus” rally, which is statistically one of the most consistent seven-day positive stretches of the year for the S&P 500, has flopped thus far. Since 1950, the S&P 500 has risen 1.3% during the seven trading days beginning December 24th, well above the typical seven-day average of 0.3%, according to LPL Financial chief technical strategist Adam Turnquist. In the current period, the S&P 500 is down nearly 1%.

Chinese state-sponsored hackers breached the U.S. Treasury Department’s computer security guardrails this month and stole documents in what Treasury called a “major incident,” according to a letter to lawmakers that was provided to Reuters on Monday.

The hackers compromised third-party cybersecurity service provider BeyondTrust and were able to access unclassified documents, the letter said.

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FOMC: Cuts Interest Rates

Posted on December 18, 2024 by Dr. David Edward Marcinko MBA MEd CMP™

BREAKING NEWS!

By Staff Reporters

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The Federal Reserve cut interest rates by a quarter of a percentage point just now, delivering relief for borrowers at the central bank’s last meeting before President-elect Donald Trump takes office next month. The central bank predicted fewer rate cuts next year than it had previously indicated, however, suggesting concern that inflation may prove more difficult to bring under control than policymakers thought just a few months ago.

The move marked the third consecutive interest rate cut since the Fed opted to start dialing back its fight against inflation in the fall. The FOMC has lowered interest rates by a percentage point in recent months.

However, the Fed’s forecast said it anticipates only a half a percentage point of rate cuts next year and another half-percent cut in 2026.

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EXPECTED: Breakeven Inflation Rate

Posted on December 16, 2024 by Dr. David Edward Marcinko MBA MEd CMP™

Measure of Expected Inflation

By Staff Reporters

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The breakeven inflation rate is the difference between the nominal yield (usually the market yield, which includes an inflation premium) on a fixed-income investment and the real yield (with no inflation premium) on an inflation-linked investment of similar maturity and credit quality.

So, if inflation averages more than the breakeven rate, the inflation-linked investment will outperform the investment with the nominal yield.

Conversely, if inflation averages below the breakeven rate, the investment with the nominal yield will outperform the inflation-linked investment.

Breakeven inflation rates are also considered useful measures of inflation expectations—higher breakeven rates represent higher inflation expectations (and higher relative prices for inflation-linked investments), while lower breakeven rates represent lower inflation expectations (and lower relative prices for inflation-linked investments).

Therefore, ideally, investors want to purchase inflation-linked investments when breakeven rates are relatively low because that’s typically when prices are also relatively low.

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FINANCIAL: Rule of 20 Defined

Posted on December 15, 2024 by Dr. David Edward Marcinko MBA MEd CMP™

A Dimensionless Number

By Staff Reporters

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What is the Rule of 20?

The Rule of 20 is a dimensionless number that adds the current 12-month trailing Price to Earnings Ratio to the annual change in an index of the annual consumer inflation rate. A reading below 20, while a market is trending lower, means that we could be near a bottom.

In the United States, the most common index used is the broad-based S&P 500, and CPI-U is used as a proxy for inflation.

The Rule of 20 is purportedly a rule from Peter Lynch. In chapter 39 of Graham and Dodd’s seminal Security Analysis, they mention: “We would suggest that about 20 times average earnings is as high a price as can be paid in an investment purchase of a common stock” … with no mention of inflation.

Lynch’s formulation attempts to factor the ‘gravity’ of interest rates into the fair value of a stock. And, as you can see, the measure has fluctuated quite a bit. However, it has returned to roughly the 20 level repeatedly.

MORE: https://dqydj.com/sp-500-rule-of-20-calculator/

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DAILY UPDATE: Walgreens to PE as CPI Upticks and Markets Blast Off this Morning

Posted on December 11, 2024 by Dr. David Edward Marcinko MBA MEd CMP™

MEDICAL EXECUTIVE-POST – TODAY’S NEWSLETTER BRIEFING

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According to reporting from the Wall Street Journal, the pharmacy chain Walgreen’s is discussing selling to private equity (PE) firm Sycamore Partners, a deal that could close early next year. This comes following a tumultuous year for the company, which announced it would close 1,200 stores in October and laid off more than 250 employees in November. The PE firm is allegedly considering selling off pieces of the business or working with partners, sources told the Journal. Following the news, Walgreens’s stock jumped 28%, its biggest single-day increase since 1980, according to Yahoo Finance.

Inflation rose 2.7% on an annual basis in November, according to the latest government report on the Consumer Price Index, or CPI. Last month’s CPI was forecast to come in at 2.7%, according to economists surveyed by financial data firm FactSet. The Consumer Price Index, a basket of goods and services typically bought by consumers, tracks the change in those prices over time.

CITE: https://tinyurl.com/2h47urt5

US stocks opened higher on Wednesday as investors digested another month of sticky inflation data that met economists’ expectations and likely pointed to a Federal Reserve interest rate cut next week. The Dow Jones Industrial Average (^DJI) increased about 0.2%, while the S&P 500 (^GSPC) jumped nearly 0.5%. The tech-heavy NASDAQ Composite (^IXIC) also added to across-the-board gains, rising roughly 0.8%.

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SWAP AGREEMENTS: Transactions, Credit Default and Rates

Posted on December 9, 2024 by Dr. David Edward Marcinko MBA MEd CMP™

By Staff Reporters

DEFINITION

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Swaps (a.k.a. swap agreements) are two-party contracts entered into primarily by institutional investors for periods ranging from a few weeks to more than one year.

In a standard “swap” transaction, two parties agree to exchange the returns (or differentials in rates of return) earned or realized on particular predetermined investments or instruments. The gross returns to be exchanged or “swapped” between the parties are generally calculated with respect to a “notional amount,” i.e., the return on or increase in value of a particular dollar amount invested at a particular interest rate, in a particular foreign currency, or in a “basket” of securities representing a particular index.

Forms of swap agreements include interest rate swaps (under which fixed- or floating-rate interest payments on a specific principal amount are exchanged) and total return swaps (under which one party agrees to pay the other the total return of a defined underlying asset in exchange for fee payments).

In addition, credit default swaps enable an investor to buy/sell protection against a credit event of a specific issuer. The seller of credit protection against a security or basket of securities receives an up-front or periodic payment to compensate against potential default(s).

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BOND YIELDS: Real and Negative Returns

Posted on December 3, 2024 by Dr. David Edward Marcinko MBA MEd CMP™

DEFINITIONS

By Dr. David Edward Marcinko MBA MEd

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Real Bond Yield: For most bonds and other fixed-income securities, real yield is simply the yield you see listed online or in newspapers minus the premium added to help counteract the effects of inflation. Most “nominal” fixed-income yields include an “inflation premium” that is typically priced into the yields to help offset the effects of inflation.

Real yields, such as those for TIPS, don’t have the inflation premium. As a result, TIPS yields and other real yields are typically lower than most nominal yields

Negative Bond Yield: In a normal bond market environment, bond yields are positive, and bond issuers (including governments) make interest payments to investors who lend them money.

In an abnormal, or negative-yield environment, investors essentially pay the bond issuer to hold their money.

CITE: https://www.r2library.com/Resource/Title/0826102549

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BLACK FRIDAY 2024: The Physician Micro-Economy

Posted on November 29, 2024 by Dr. David Edward Marcinko MBA MEd CMP™

Is it Good for Retailers … but Bad for Doctors and Consumers?

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If Black Friday 2024 is anything like 2023, retailers may not be swimming in cash while shoppers bathe in savings. Black Friday deals drew 212 million shoppers to stores in fabulous 2010 and collectively spent $39 billion on products and services.

And, the average amount spent by a Black Friday shopper in 2010 was a whopping $365.34.

***

Assessment

We predict Black Friday 2024 sales surpass 2023 with a slight increase over 20222 because of fewer shopping days; and the COVID pandemic explosion..

QUESTION: But, is Black Friday good for the [healthcare] economics sector post [thu] the pandemic? Do patients go shopping rather than to the doctor? What about inflation?

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Conclusion

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Speaker: If you need a moderator or speaker for an upcoming event, Dr. David E. Marcinko; MBA – Publisher-in-Chief of the Medical Executive-Post – is available for seminar or speaking engagements. Contact: MarcinkoAdvisors@msn.com

OUR OTHER PRINT BOOKS AND RELATED INFORMATION SOURCES:

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ADVISORS: www.CertifiedMedicalPlanner.org
FINANCE: Financial Planning for Physicians and Advisors
INSURANCE: Risk Management and Insurance Strategies for Physicians and Advisors
Dictionary of Health Economics and Finance
Dictionary of Health Information Technology and Security
Dictionary of Health Insurance and Managed Care

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FIXED FINANCIAL SPREADS FOR PHYSICIANS: Duration, Sectors, Widening, Tightening and Other Fixed Income Strategies

Posted on November 26, 2024 by Dr. David Edward Marcinko MBA MEd CMP™

DEFINITIONS FOR PHYSICIANS

By Dr. David Edward Marcinko MBA MEd

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Spread duration is a risk measure, expressed in years, that estimates the price sensitivity of a fixed income investment to a 100 basis point change in credit spreads relative to similar-maturity Treasuries.

Spread sectors (aka “spread products,” “spread securities”) in fixed income parlance, are typically non-Treasury securities that usually trade in the fixed income markets at higher yields than same-maturity U.S. Treasury securities. The yield difference between Treasuries and non-Treasuries is called the “spread”), hence the name “spread sectors” for non-Treasuries.

These sectors–such as corporate-issued securities and mortgage-backed securities (MBS–typically trade at higher yields (spreads) than Treasuries because they usually have relatively lower credit quality and more credit / default risk and / or they have more prepayment risk.

CITE: https://www.r2library.com/Resource/Title/0826102549

Spread widening, tightening are changes in spreads that reflect changes in relative value, with “spread widening” usually indicating relative price depreciation and “spread tightening” indicating relative price appreciation.

Spreads (aka “interest-rate spreads”, “maturity spreads,” “yield spreads” or “credit spreads”)

In fixed income parlance, spreads are simply measured differences or gaps that exists between two interest rates or yields that are being compared with each other. Spreads typically exist and are measured between fixed income securities of the same credit quality, but different maturities, or of the same maturity, but different credit quality.

Changes in spreads typically reflect changes in relative value, with “spread widening” usually indicating relative price depreciation of the securities whose yields are increasing most, and “spread tightening” indicating relative price appreciation of the securities whose yields are declining most (or remaining relatively fixed while other yields are rising to meet them). Value-oriented investors typically seek to buy when spreads are relatively wide and sell after spreads tighten.

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BID/ASK SPREAD: Basis Points with Formulas

Posted on November 24, 2024 by Dr. David Edward Marcinko MBA MEd CMP™

By Staff Reporters

DEFINITIONS

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Basis Points are used in financial literature to express values that are carried out to two decimal places (hundredths of a percentage point), particularly ratios, such as yields, fees, and returns. Basis points describe values that are typically on the right side of the decimal point–one basis point equals one one-hundredth of a percentage point (0.01%). So 25 basis points equals 0.25%, and 50 basis points equals 0.50%.

Only when basis points equal or exceed 100 does the value move to the left of the decimal point–100 basis points equals 1.00%, 500 basis points equals 5.00%, etc.

CITE: https://www.r2library.com/Resource/Title/0826102549

Bid/Ask Spread (also known as bid/offer spread) is the difference between the National Best Bid and the National Best Offer, which represents the implied cost to trade a security.

As compensation for the risk taken, the market maker (or dealer) earns the bid/offer spread in exchange for facilitating the trade. Wider spreads generally indicate higher costs associated with trading the underlying assets in the ETF, hedging costs, inventory management costs, and general market risk.

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Stocks, Treasuries, Gold and Bitcoin

Posted on November 20, 2024 by Dr. David Edward Marcinko MBA MEd CMP™

SPONSOR: http://www.MarcinkoAssociates.com

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Stocks sank yesterday on news that Russian President Vladimir Putin lowered the threshold for using nuclear weapons, retaliation against the US for allowing Ukraine to use American-made long-range missiles. The NASDAQ and S&P 500 managed to recover, but the DJIA stayed all day in the red.
Treasury yields dropped as bonds rose.
Gold popped as traders sought safety, as the commodity benefited from the US dollar pulling back from a recent one-year high.
Bitcoin continued to climb slowly but surely, reaching another new all-time high.

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DAILY UPDATE: United Health, Cigna and Inflation as Stock Markets Flatten

Posted on November 14, 2024 by Dr. David Edward Marcinko MBA MEd CMP™

MEDICAL EXECUTIVE-POST – TODAY’S NEWSLETTER BRIEFING

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Essays, Opinions and Curated News in Health Economics, Investing, Business, Management and Financial Planning for Physician Entrepreneurs and their Savvy Advisors and Consultants

“Serving Almost One Million Doctors, Financial Advisors and Medical Management Consultants Daily“

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UnitedHealth Group posted nearly $6.1 billion in profit last quarter, edging out Elevance Health with $5.6 billion. Paige Minemyer has more takeaways from third quarter earnings results.

Cigna told investors the company is no longer pursuing a merger with Humana, opting to avoid tricky questions from federal regulators.

STOCKS UP

EV startup Rivian popped 13.71% after announcing a new $5.8 billion joint venture with Volkswagen to collaborate on a new line of vehicles that will begin rolling off the assembly line in 2027.
Rocket Lab…rocketed 28.44% to a new all-time high after increasing revenue 55% last quarter and announcing the first launch deal for its new Neutron rocket.
Charter Communications will purchase Liberty Broadband in an all-stock deal. Charter shares rose 3.63% on the news, while Liberty shares sank 5.05%.
Cava reported strong earnings today, including impressive same-store sales growth of 18%. Shares soared on the open, though ended the day up just 1.57%.
Flutter Entertainment, parent company of sports betting app FanDuel, rose 6.89% to hit an all-time high thanks to incredibly strong betting on the NFL last quarter.

STOCKS DOWN

The problems continue at Super Micro Computer, which announced it will need EVEN MORE time to submit its quarterly 10-Q form to the SEC. That’s on top of the delayed filing of its annual 10-K filing from back in June—and if it doesn’t file that by November 16, the stock will be delisted from the Nasdaq. Shares sank 6.31%.
Spirit Airlines really may go bankrupt this time. The beleaguered airline has lost hope of merging with Frontier Airlines, so shares plunged 59.32%.
Maplebear, which is the parent company of Instacart, delivered bad news for shareholders: Next quarter will be worse than expected. Shares fell 11.01%.
SoundHound AI reported record revenue last quarter, but shares plummeted 17.06% after the voice recognition stock also revealed much lower margins.

CITE: https://tinyurl.com/2h47urt5

Here’s where the major benchmarks ended:

The S&P 500^® index (SPX) rose 1.39 points (0.02%) to 5,985.38; the Dow Jones Industrial Average^® ($DJI) added 47.21 points (0.11%) to 43,958.19; and the NASDAQ Composite^® ($COMP) fell 50.66 points (–0.26%) to 19,230.74.
The 10-year Treasury note yield added two basis points to 4.45%, just below last week’s four-month high.
The CBOE Volatility Index^® (VIX) slid to 14.03, down sharply from above 20 early last week.

The Labor Department on Wednesday reported that consumer prices in October rose 2.6% from a year earlier. That marks a pickup in the pace of inflation from September, when prices were up 2.4% on the year.

A digital token inspired by a Shiba Inu dog meme is now worth more than the company that pioneered the assembly line. Yesterday, dogecoin continued its post-election surge to become more valuable than 121-year-old Ford.

Visualize: How private equity tangled banks in a web of debt, from the Financial Times.

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CURRENCY OPTIONS: Hedging and Overlays

Posted on November 8, 2024 by Dr. David Edward Marcinko MBA MEd CMP™

By Dr. David Edward Marcinko MBA MEd

SPONSOR: http://www.MarcinkoAssociates.com

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Currency Hedging is a risk-management strategy, as part of a foreign investment strategy, currency hedging is designed to reduce the impact from changes in the relative values of currencies involved in the foreign investment strategy.

CITE: https://www.r2library.com/Resource/Title/0826102549

In any foreign investment strategy, a significant part of the potential risk and return comes from exposure to relative currency value fluctuations. If exposure to those currency fluctuations is minimized, investors can experience more of a “pure play” exposure to the foreign investments. There is a variety of possible currency hedging strategies, ranging from swaps, options, and spot contracts to simply buying foreign currencies.

Currency Overlay is a financial trading strategy used to separate the management of currency risk from other portfolio strategies. A currency overlay manager can seek to hedge the risk from adverse movements in exchange rates, and/or attempt to profit from tactical currency views.

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DAILY UPDATE: FOMC Cuts Interest Rates as Stock Markets Rise

Posted on November 8, 2024 by Dr. David Edward Marcinko MBA MEd CMP™

MEDICAL EXECUTIVE-POST – TODAY’S NEWSLETTER BRIEFING

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Essays, Opinions and Curated News in Health Economics, Investing, Business, Management and Financial Planning for Physician Entrepreneurs and their Savvy Advisors and Consultants

“Serving Almost One Million Doctors, Financial Advisors and Medical Management Consultants Daily“

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The Federal Reserve cut interest rates by 0.25 percentage points Thursday, the second consecutive cut after a two-year rate-hike run to curb post-pandemic inflation.

What’s up

Lyft announced impressive earnings results thanks to more commuters using the ride-hailing service, as well as upbeat guidance for the future. Shares rose 22.92%.
Shareholders worried about a housing market slowdown hurting Zillow had nothing to fear: The real estate website crushed earnings estimates, and shares popped 23.77%.
Warner Bros. Discovery enjoyed its biggest single-quarter surge in subscribers ever thanks to streaming service Max, which sent shares soaring 11.81%.
Under Armour rocketed 23.33% higher after its cost-savings plan paid off last quarter and management guided for a strong quarter ahead.
Planet Fitness surprised shareholders with a solid quarter for the gym giant, as well as forecasts of more growth ahead. Shares climbed 11.26%.
Prison operators GEO Group and CoreCivic both surged on Trump’s election, and their rally continued today—in-spite of very different paths forward for each stock. GEO Group gained 13.63%, while CoreCivic rose 25.60%.

What’s down

Trump Media & Technology Group was one of the biggest winners on election night, and although the stock soared over the last few days, investors decided to take profits today. Shares sank 22.97%.
Wolfspeed plummeted 39.24% after announcing larger-than-expected losses last quarter, poor forecasts for next quarter, and layoffs to cut costs.
Match Group shareholders were heartbroken to hear that Tinder’s revenue fell last quarter, though strong revenue growth from Hinge helped ease the pain. Shares dropped 17.87%.
Virgin Galactic isn’t just a mean nickname from your high school years—it’s also a space stock that can’t make money to save its life. Shares fell 11.87%.

CITE: https://tinyurl.com/2h47urt5

Here’s where the major benchmarks ended:

The S&P 500^® index (SPX) rose 44.06 points (0.74%) to 5,973.10; the Dow Jones Industrial Average^® ($DJI) fell 0.59 points (0.00%) to 43,729.34; and the NASDAQ Composite^® ($COMP) gained 285.99 points (1.51%) to 19,269.46.
The 10-year Treasury note yield (TNX) fell nine basis points to 4.34%, with most of the drop coming long before the Fed decision.
The CBOE Volatility Index^® (VIX) continued its post-election plunge to 15.21.

Visualize: How private equity tangled banks in a web of debt, from the Financial Times.

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INVESTING NEWS: Stocks, Bonds, Oil, Gold, Bitcoin and Sectors Review Post Election

Posted on November 7, 2024 by Dr. David Edward Marcinko MBA MEd CMP™

By Staff Reporters

SPONSOR: http://www.MarcinkoAssociates.com

BREAKING NEWS!

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Stocks surged and stayed higher all yesterday day on news of Donald Trump’s presidential victory. The Dow rocketed over 1,350 points as soon as markets opened, and all three indexes ended the day at record highs.
Treasury yields have paralleled Trump’s chances of taking the White House for the last few weeks, and his election sent them soaring to over 4.46% at one point today.
Oil and gold both fell as the dollar rose after Trump’s win. The greenback popped on the promise of Trump’s protectionist tariff policies and the lower likelihood of the Fed cutting interest rates as fast as previously expected.
Bitcoin surged as traders celebrated the beginning of the new, friendlier regulatory environment that Trump promised during his campaign.

CITE: https://www.r2library.com/Resource/Title/0826102549

Sector check-up

Financials were the biggest sector mover Wednesday, up 6.16%, hitting a new high.
Industrials were up 3.93% Wednesday, hitting a new high.
Energy was up 3.54% in the session. It’s now 4.28% from the April high.
Real Estate fell 2.64% during trading. It’s now 5.6% from the high.
Consumer Staples fell 1.5%. The sector is 5.76% from the September high.
Utilities fell 1%. It’s now 5.72% from the mid-October high.
Duke Energy was flat over the past three months, and it is 6.3% from the October high.

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DAILY UPDATE: Record Stock Market Blast Off Post Trump Presidential Election

Posted on November 7, 2024 by Dr. David Edward Marcinko MBA MEd CMP™

MEDICAL EXECUTIVE-POST – TODAY’S NEWSLETTER BRIEFING

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Stocks Up

One more group of stocks that soared on a Trump election: Big Tech companies with antitrust problems. Another Trump presidency should go a long way toward clearing up the regulatory hurdles many companies have faced recently, which is why Alphabet popped 3.99% and Amazon rose 3.8%.
CVS Health surged 11.33% after meeting revenue forecasts but missing earnings expectations. However, the miss was due to a one-time charge, so shareholders quickly forgave the healthcare retailer.
Planet Fitness gained 6.09% on a surprise bid for bankrupt fitness chain Blink Holdings in an attempt to bolster its own gym business.

Stocks Down

Super Micro Computer had a chance to show the world it wasn’t committing the fraud it has recently been accused of. Instead, the company announced it is still unable to determine when it will file the quarterly report due August 29. Shares crashed 18.05%.
Home builder stocks sank on fears that a Trump presidency will slow the rate of Fed rate cuts, keeping mortgage rates higher for longer. DR Horton fell 3.8%, Lennar dropped 4.84%, Pulte Group lost 3.09%, and Toll Brothers tumbled 1.46%.
Cannabis stocks were betting big on a ballot measure in Florida to allow the sale of recreational marijuana. The initiative’s failure sent shares of Curaleaf plummeting 29.17%, Trulieve Cannabis plunged 38.8%, and Ayr Wellness sank 55.87%.

CITE: https://tinyurl.com/2h47urt5

Here’s where the major benchmarks ended:

The S&P 500^® index (SPX) rose 146.28 points (2.53%) to 5,929.04; the Dow Jones Industrial Average^® ($DJI) added 1,508.05 points (3.57%) to 43,729.93; and the NASDAQ Composite^® ($COMP) gained 544.29 points (2.95%) to 18,983.47—a new closing high.
The 10-year Treasury note yield (TNX) surged 14 basis points to 4.43%, its highest level since July.
The CBOE Volatility Index^® (VIX) fell sharply to 16.3 as election-related uncertainty diminished.