BOARD CERTIFICATION EXAM STUDY GUIDES Lower Extremity Trauma
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Posted on June 20, 2025 by Dr. David Edward Marcinko MBA MEd CMP™
By AI
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Stocks: Investors looked past the escalating conflict between Iran and Israel, even as President Trump mulled his options for a US intervention, and stocks rose ahead of today’s Federal Reserve meeting.
Economy: Trump called Jerome Powell “a stupid person” hours before the Fed Chair decided to keep interest rates where they were Stocks fell thanks to the Fed’s prediction that inflation will rise to 3.1% by the end of the year, above previous forecasts of 2.8%.
Commodities: Gold fell just a hair as analysts called the commodity’s top, while platinum climbed to a four-year high.
Correlation measures the relationship between two investments–the higher the correlation, the more likely they are to move in the same direction for a given set of economic or market events. Correlation, in the finance and investment industries, is a statistic that measures the degree to which two securities move in relation to each other. Correlations are used in advanced portfolio management, computed as the correlation coefficient which has a value that must fall between -1.0 and +1.0.
So if two securities are highly positively correlated, they will move in the same direction the vast majority of the time. Negatively correlated investments do the opposite–as one security rises, the other falls, and vice versa. No correlation means there is no relationship between the movement of two securities–the performance of one security has no bearing on the performance of the other.
Correlation is an important concept for portfolio diversification--combining assets with low or negative correlations can improve risk-adjusted performance over time by providing a diversity of payouts under the same financial conditions.
Posted on May 21, 2025 by Dr. David Edward Marcinko MBA MEd CMP™
DEFINED
By Staff Reporters
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Stocks ticked down yesterday, ending a six-day rally after some influential CEOs—including JPMorgan Chase’s Jamie Dimon—warned that markets have grown too complacent about tariffs and potential stagflation. But it was a spectacular day for Warby Parker, which climbed more than 15% after Google announced it’s partnering with the eyewear company on Google Glass (RIP) a new smart glasses device.
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Stagflation is the simultaneous appearance in an economy of slow growth, high unemployment, and rising prices.
Once thought by economists to be impossible, stagflation has occurred repeatedly in the developed world since the 1970s.
Policy solutions for slow growth tend to worsen inflation, and vice versa. That makes stagflation hard to fight.
Stagflation is the combination of high inflation, stagnant economic growth, and elevated unemployment.
The term stagflation, a blend of “stagnation” and “inflation,” was popularized by British politician Lain MacLeod in the 1960s, during a period of economic distress in the United Kingdom. It gained broader recognition in the 1970s after a series of global economic shocks, particularly the 1973 oil crisis, which disrupted supply chains and led to rising prices and slowing growth. Stagflation challenges traditional economic theories, which suggest that inflation and unemployment are inversely related, as depicted by the Phillips Curve.
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According to Wikipedia, stagflation presents a policy dilemma, as measures to curb inflation—such as tightening monetary policy—can exacerbate unemployment, while policies aimed at reducing unemployment may fuel inflation.
In economic theory, there are two main explanations for stagflation: supply shocks, such as a sharp increase in oil prices, and misguided government policies that hinder industrial output while expanding the money supply too rapidly.
NOTE: A portmanteau word or part of a word made by combining the spellings and meanings of two or more other words or word parts (such as smog from smoke and fog).
The stagflation of the 1970s led to a re-evaluation of Keynesian economic policies and contributed to the rise of alternative economic theories, including monetarism and supply-side economics.
Posted on May 16, 2025 by Dr. David Edward Marcinko MBA MEd CMP™
MEDICAL EXECUTIVE-POST–TODAY’SNEWSLETTERBRIEFING
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Essays, Opinions and Curated News in Health Economics, Investing, Business, Management and Financial Planning for Physician Entrepreneurs and their Savvy Advisors and Consultants
“Serving Almost One Million Doctors, Financial Advisors and Medical Management Consultants Daily“
A Partner of the Institute of Medical Business Advisors , Inc.
The Justice Department is investigating UnitedHealth Group for possible criminal Medicare fraud, the WSJ reported. The healthcare-fraud unit of the Justice Department’s criminal division is overseeing the investigation and it has been an active probe since at least last summer. Apparently the federal investigation is focusing on the company’s Medicare Advantage business practices. UnitedHealth said in a statement it hadn’t been notified by the Justice Department of the criminal investigation. The statement said the company stands “by the integrity of the Medicare Advantage program.”
Fiserv’s CFO said that the fintech’s retail payment system will see similar volume next quarter. Shareholders hoping for stronger growth were disappointed and pushed shares down 16.19%.
Posted on May 14, 2025 by Dr. David Edward Marcinko MBA MEd CMP™
By Rick Kahler MSFP CFP™
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If I had a dollar for every time someone referred to the “good old days,” of the American economy, I could probably buy a vintage diner, jukebox and all, and still have enough left for a slice of apple pie.
The newest round of on-again, off-again tariffs is built around that same kind of nostalgia. Slapping big taxes on goods from other countries will supposedly protect American jobs and industries. The aim is to bring factories back, boost wages, and make the country more self-reliant.
This is a powerful story that taps into a deep feeling that we’ve lost control. Supporters argue that the U.S. has opened its markets and played by the rules, allowing many other countries to prosper at its expense, while America has been in a long, slow economic decline. This story frames the U.S. as a victim, with tariffs a form of payback to punish countries that have “taken advantage of us.”
Except that story is a myth. Rather than punishing foreign economies, the pain of tariffs hits Americans at home. Our businesses face costlier goods, consumers pay higher prices at the store, and the ripple effects include falling sales, layoffs, and frayed trade relationships.
In addition, the U.S. economy has actually been booming. Over the past three decades, the U.S. has pulled far ahead of most developed nations. In 2008, the American economy was about the same size as the Eurozone’s. Today, it’s nearly twice as large. Wages have risen. Even the poorest U.S. state now has a higher per-person income than countries like France, Japan, or the U.K.
So why do so many people still feel like we’re falling behind?
First, the growth hasn’t reached everyone, especially in rural America. In some areas and industries, jobs have disappeared and opportunities have dwindled.
Second, many people who are doing okay themselves have bought into a powerful, repeated myth that things are going terribly for everyone else.
This narrative takes hold in people’s internal voices, the parts of themselves shaped by past pain, fear, or frustration. Tariffs, then, can feel like a way to stand up and take action. It makes perfect sense to want to relieve anxiety by shutting the world out and protecting what is left.
Yet, when we act from fear or anger without pausing to reflect, we tend to overcorrect or trade one set of problems for another. This is what many economists and business leaders see happening with tariffs. Even supporters of tariffs are beginning to admit they’re a gamble. Many are still willing to take that gamble if it means restoring something they feel they’ve lost, a sense of purpose, security, and control.
Reacting out of fear in this way is not likely to create lasting solutions. A more challenging but more productive approach would be to take time to listen with compassion to those inner voices, helping them move past anxiety to find answers based in truth rather than myth. Maybe real liberation comes from letting go of narratives that no longer serve us, choosing a future built on connection, courage, and clarity.
Because if we keep heading down an isolationist path, turning inward out of fear, the future might not be the golden age we imagine. It might look a lot more like the actual 1950s, before the civil rights movement, before women fully entered the workforce, before the innovations that made the U.S. economy a global leader. A time more isolated, less equal, and far less dynamic than the one we’ve come to idealize.
That’s a version of the past we don’t need to relive, no matter what nostalgic song is playing on the jukebox.
Posted on May 7, 2025 by Dr. David Edward Marcinko MBA MEd CMP™
By Rick Kahler CFP™ MSFP
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DECLINE OF THE DOLLAR
On-again, off-again tariffs. Rising prices. Dramatic market swings. The anxiety-producing headlines come so fast it’s hard to know what to worry about first. Meanwhile, one serious consequence of all this chaos is going almost unnoticed. That is the decline of the dollar.
Since the start of this year, the value of the U.S. dollar has slipped more than 10% against other major currencies. That drop is not just an economic statistic. It affects all Americans’ daily lives.
People are feeling the pinch of rising prices at checkout lines, gas stations, and shipping counters. But there isn’t a full understanding of why. Tariffs are only half the story. The weakening dollar amplifies those price increases even further.
For years, the dollar remained strong even as the national debt ballooned. It benefited from its reputation as a safe haven, from global demand, and from U.S. interest rates. But much of that strength, as we now see, was fragile—propped up more by perception than fundamentals. In April, sweeping tariffs triggered a sharp market correction, and the dollar suddenly fell to its lowest point in over three years. Market confidence vanished overnight.
This was more than a market reaction. It signaled a collapse in trust—not just in policy, but in principle. It is no longer a given that the U.S. will act with consistency, reason, and long-term responsibility. What’s unraveling is both our country’s financial credibility and the moral foundation that underpinned it.
When a currency represents a nation, its value reflects more than economics. It reflects governance, accountability, stability, and integrity. When the dollar stumbles, it speaks to who we are, and whether we can still be counted on.
Yet, most people aren’t talking about the decline of the dollar. This may come from being overwhelmed, choosing to ignore even more bad news, or actually believing that this is a necessary step in making things better. It is not.
We all respond differently to financial uncertainty. Some lean into hyper-vigilance—tightening budgets, tracking every headline. Others shut down, turning toward distraction. Still others press on as if nothing has changed. These are all natural human reactions.
They are not the same as leadership. And leadership—internal and external—is what’s needed now. Not panic. Not blame. Just the courage to face where we are and the willingness to start again from there.
But leadership is in short supply in Washington, where many in both parties remain silent. Some fear political retribution from the administration, others fear backlash from increasingly extreme and vocal constituencies. That silence costs us all.
A respected government official recently told me that, while some of the domestic damage to our economy could be repaired within a few years, rebuilding global confidence in the United States may take a generation. That is a reflection of the rapid erosion of trust that has already happened in the last three months. Trust that took decades to build has been unwound in a matter of weeks. Even if we reversed every policy decision tomorrow, the damage is done.
We cannot change what’s already happened. We can still choose to show up. To pay attention. To have the hard conversations. To lead our own financial lives with more clarity, integrity, and intention than before. That kind of personal leadership may not fix the dollar. But it can help rebuild what underlies its value: trust, steadiness, and the moral grounding we’ve begun to lose.
Because the dollar’s decline is more than an economic headline.
It’s a story about who we are—and whether we’re ready to live with open eyes in a world where the old assumptions no longer hold.
Posted on April 30, 2025 by Dr. David Edward Marcinko MBA MEd CMP™
By Staff Reporters
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Consumer sentiment is a statistical measurement of the overall health of the economy as determined by consumer opinion. It takes into account how people feel about their current financial health, the health of the economy in the short-term, and the prospects for longer-term economic growth. It is widely considered to be a useful economic indicator.
Consumer sentiment emerged as an economic statistic during the mid-20th century and has since become a barometer that influences public and economic policy. It is considered a lagging indicator because it takes people several months to notice and feel the effects of changes in economic activity.
American consumers are Worried about the Economy
Consumer sentiment dropped 8% from March to April amid worries about inflation, according to the University of Michigan’s closely watched survey. Though sentiment edged up slightly from an even lower reading earlier in the month, inflation expectations climbed to their highest since 1991 as consumers fret about the potential impact of tariffs.
And even beyond possible rising prices, things could be about to get rougher for consumers: Major retailers have warned that unless President Trump’s tariff policy toward China changes, they’re likely to encounter empty store shelves in a few weeks.
Posted on April 27, 2025 by Dr. David Edward Marcinko MBA MEd CMP™
By Rick Kahler CFP™
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On January 21, 1980, in what I thought was a brilliant financial move, I bought gold. At what was then an all-time high of $873 an ounce.
Fast forward 45 years, and here we are again. Gold is on a tear, priced just over $3,000 an ounce at the time of this writing. It needs to rise another 16% to reach its inflation-adjusted record and many analysts think it might just get there.
What’s driving this gold rally? The same thing that drove it in 1980—fear.
Back then, the U.S. was grappling with rising inflation, double-digit price increases, and interest rates in the high teens. Investors feared that the dollar and stock market would collapse, that their hard-earned savings would erode into oblivion, and that gold was a safe haven. Sound familiar?
Today, inflation is less dramatic and the stock market would have to go a long way down to even register as a bear market, but it’s still a major concern. Central banks are buying gold at record levels. Gold-backed ETFs, which had been seeing years of outflows, are finally pulling investors back in.
For most, gold isn’t just an investment, it’s an emotional hedge against uncertainty. Back in 1980, I wasn’t thinking about long-term strategy. I was reacting to fear. Inflation had hit 14%, and like many others, I was convinced the dollar would soon be worthless. Gold, I thought, was my best shot at preserving wealth.
The problem? Inflation eventually cooled; it had dropped to an average of 3.5% by the mid-1980s. Gold prices tumbled along with it. Investors who, like me, bought at the peak, 45 years later still haven’t broken even on an inflation-adjusted basis. (My $873 purchase price, adjusted for inflation, equates to $3,580 today.) If I had stuck with a well-diversified portfolio, I likely would have fared much better over time.
Over the years, I’ve come to realize that our financial decisions aren’t just about numbers. They’re deeply influenced by our Internal Financial System™, a framework that helps explain why we handle money the way we do. I now see that my decision to buy gold was a battle between different financial “parts” of myself.
One part panicked, convinced that money was about to become worthless. Another saw gold prices soaring and didn’t want to miss out. Yet another part convinced me that buying at the peak was still a smart move. Had I paused and examined these internal voices, I might have made a different decision.
My gold purchase shows why emotionally driven investment decisions rarely lead to great financial outcomes. Instead of asking, “Is gold a smart long-term investment?” I was asking, “How do I make sure I don’t lose everything?” Those are two very different questions.
If you’re thinking about buying gold, I urge you to consider these questions:
“Am I investing from a place of fear or strategy?” If you’re rushing in because you’re scared of inflation, pause and reassess.
“How does gold fit into my broader financial plan?” Gold can be a great hedge—if held in appropriate amounts in a diversified portfolio. It is best viewed as catastrophic financial insurance, rather than an investment.
“Am I reacting to headlines or making a well-thought-out decision?” The financial media loves a good gold rally. But remember, markets move in cycles. Today’s rally may be history repeating itself.
Back in 1980, fear persuaded me that gold was a sure thing. I forgot an essential caveat—there are no sure things in investing. If bad market timing were an Olympic sport, I’d have taken home the gold (pun intended) for least profitable performance.
Posted on April 9, 2025 by Dr. David Edward Marcinko MBA MEd CMP™
By Staff Reporters
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Just after midnight, President Trump’s “reciprocal” tariffs went into effect against 86 countries. Analysts have estimated that the new US average effective tariff rate is north of 20%, the highest in more than 100 years. Ahead of the tariff deadline, markets swung violently, mostly way down: According to Bloomberg’s Cameron Crise, yesterday was the fourth straight trading day when the S&P 500’s trading range was 5% or more. That’s only happened in 1987, 2008, and 2020.
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The Apple A18 and Apple A18 Pro are a pair of 64-bit ARM-based system on a chip (SoC) designed by Apple Inc., part of the Apple silicon series. They are used in the iPhone 16 and iPhone 16 Pro lineups and the iPhone 16e, and built on a second generation 3 nm process by TSMC.
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Yesterday, for several hours on Tuesday, it looked like stocks were going to regain some of the ground lost during the market’s very bad week. But after the Trump administration made it clear that its increased tariffs on China would go into effect, all three indexes plunged. Apple, which makes most of its iPhones in China, was hit harder than many of its Big Tech peers.
So shoppers are thinking it’s better to have an Apple A18 processor and not need it, than to need it and not have it. Apple customers are scrambling to buy new iPhones out of fear that the company could raise prices to offset President Trump’s tariffs.
Employees at locations throughout the US said they’re being bombarded with questions about potential price hikes and have witnessed customers panic-buying phones. Though Apple declined to comment to Bloomberg, its retail stores reportedly saw higher sales over the last weekend than in previous years.
Posted on March 21, 2025 by Dr. David Edward Marcinko MBA MEd CMP™
Beware – Public Improvement Fees
Beware – Public Improvement Districts
By Staff Reporters
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A Public Improvement Fee (PIF) is a fee that developers may require their tenants to collect on sales transactions to pay for on-site improvements. The PIF is a fee and NOT a tax; therefore, it becomes a part of the overall cost of the sale/service and is subject to sales tax
Examples of these improvements include curbs and sidewalks, parking facilities, storm management system, sanitary sewer systems, road development (within the site) and outdoor public plazas.
Public Improvement Districts (PIDs) are a financing mechanism used to fund new developments and infrastructure improvements. PIDs are relatively easy to create and can be done by the local municipality. A majority of property owners within the district may petition a local government to create the district. Bonds can then be issued to fund a development or infrastructure improvements. Through an industry analysis and view of the current political environment, PIDs are certainly a beneficial mechanism to fund projects otherwise not feasible due to constraints on city budgets. Local elected officials will want PIDs monitored and only used in proper circumstances.
Tax avoidance—An action taken to lessen tax liability and maximize after-tax income.
Tax evasion—The failure to pay or a deliberate underpayment of taxes.
Underground economy—Money-making activities that people don’t report to the government, including both illegal and legal activities.
Voluntary compliance—A system of compliance that relies on individual citizens to report their income freely and voluntarily, calculate their tax liability correctly, and file a tax return on time.
Posted on February 13, 2025 by Dr. David Edward Marcinko MBA MEd CMP™
MEDICAL EXECUTIVE-POST–TODAY’SNEWSLETTERBRIEFING
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Essays, Opinions and Curated News in Health Economics, Investing, Business, Management and Financial Planning for Physician Entrepreneurs and their Savvy Advisors and Consultants
“Serving Almost One Million Doctors, Financial Advisors and Medical Management Consultants Daily“
A Partner of the Institute of Medical Business Advisors , Inc.
Consumer prices overall increased 3% from a year earlier, up from 2.9% the previous month, according to the Labor Department’s consumer price index, a measure of goods and service costs across the U.S. That’s the most since June and above the 2.9% expected by economists surveyed by Bloomberg.
Most U.S. stocks fell Wednesday after a report showed inflation is unexpectedly worsening for Americans.
The S&P 500 dropped 0.3%, though it had been on track for a much worse loss of 1.1% at the start of trading. The Dow Jones Industrial Average sank 225 points, or 0.5%, while the NASDAQ composite edged higher by less than 0.1%
Posted on February 11, 2025 by Dr. David Edward Marcinko MBA MEd CMP™
MEDICAL EXECUTIVE-POST–TODAY’SNEWSLETTERBRIEFING
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Essays, Opinions and Curated News in Health Economics, Investing, Business, Management and Financial Planning for Physician Entrepreneurs and their Savvy Advisors and Consultants
“Serving Almost One Million Doctors, Financial Advisors and Medical Management Consultants Daily“
A Partner of the Institute of Medical Business Advisors , Inc.
Community Health Center, Inc. (CHC) detected a data breach on Jan. 2 after identifying unusual activity within its computer systems. An investigation confirmed that a skilled hacker had accessed and extracted data but did not delete or lock any information. If CHC’s claims are accurate, this is a positive outcome, as hackers often deploy ransomware, a type of attack in which they lock systems and demand payment before restoring access.
Over one million Floridians have had their health insurance revoked as a result of a nationwide disenrollment from coverage that was previously safeguarded as part of the COVID-19 pandemic response. Medicaid and Children’s Health Insurance Program (CHIP) enrolment in Florida has fallen from 5.1 million to 3.8 million between March 2023 and October 2024, according to health care research non-profit the Kaiser Family Foundation (KFF).
US stocks bounced back on Monday as investors looked beyond President Trump’s latest tariff threats, including new levies on steel and aluminum imports.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average (^DJI) added nearly 0.4% after the blue-chip index on Friday booked its worst loss in nearly four weeks. The S&P 500 (^GSPC) rose roughly 0.6%, while the NASDAQ Composite (^IXIC) popped nearly 1% as shares of AI chip giant Nvidia (NVDA) surged 3%, along with other tech stocks.
Over the last few years, our portfolio has skewed more international, and this is the topic I want to address today. The US is a wonderful country and has many significant competitive advantages over the rest of the world. Despite all of its flaws, it has the most stable political system. It has great geography: It’s bordered by friendly neighbors to the north and south, and by mostly friendly oceans to the east and west. It has an abundance of natural resources. It is one of the largest democracies and has the right amount of capitalism (though we’ve been slipping in this department). We have the best capital markets, and the US is the best place in the world to start a new business, take risks and innovate. These factors led to the coronation of the US dollar as the world’s reserve currency.Ideally, in a perfect world, we’d want to have a portfolio of only US companies. Not because we are patriots, but because our life at IMA would be so much easier. Let me explain all the extra headaches we incur when we own foreign stocks. European markets open 7–8 hours earlier than ours; Japan is 16 hours ahead.
Thus, we have to place orders early in the morning, sometimes in the middle of the night. Our trading system, which links directly to US exchanges, allows us to buy or sell any US stock electronically, directly through our software. It is not linked to foreign exchanges, thus foreign trading comes with significantly more friction and consumes more time. Foreign stocks have multiple tickers, which constantly confuse our clients – this means we receive more inbound inquiries on them. US trading comes with zero commissions, allowing us to accumulate a position slowly, in tiny increments, with little effort. Brokers charge commissions on foreign stocks, so we have to be sensitive to how we are accumulating or disposing of a stock. I am sure I am missing half a dozen other headaches.
Yes, foreign stocks are a big headache for the IMA team. We are not a masochistic bunch, so let me explain why we go through this brain and time damage.Over the last decade the US has attracted the bulk of the capital flows, and the US stock market is trading at one of the highest valuations in US history. Historically, returns that followed such sky-high valuations have been mediocre at best. I wrote two books on this subject. How much you pay for a business, even if it is a great one, is important, as it is one of the key inputs determining your future returns. When we look for stocks, our searches are global. We look at the US and at foreign markets that have the rule of law. But our goal is to buy the stock that offers the highest risk-adjusted returns. For us to buy a foreign stock, it has to compensate us for the extra time and trouble involved – in other words it has to be a super-attractive investment.
Let me give you a few examples.
When we looked at defense companies, we examined all of them, in the US and internationally. We bought a few in the US but found that European defense companies were a more compelling proposition. First of all, Europe has been sipping Chianti, Bordeaux, Riesling, and Earl Grey for the last thirty years while collecting peace dividends and significantly underinvesting in defense. The US, to a large degree, became NATO.We have more enemies today than at any time in my lifetime, and they are stronger (China has a bigger manufacturing base than the US) and aligning with each other. There is an unthinkable war in Europe, where one country attacked another to steal its territory. China is contemplating invading Taiwan – a tiny island that produces the bulk of the world’s semiconductors. The Middle East is on fire. Rebels most of us didn’t even know existed are making the Red Sea unnavigable.
And from the European perspective, the US is becoming a fickle friend. Europe is racing to create a $500 billion defense fund, per the FT:Trump’s threat to withdraw US security guarantees from underspending Nato allies has spurred European capitals to explore more radical defense funding options, including joint borrowing that has traditionally been ruled out by fiscal hawks in Germany, the Netherlands and Denmark.
European defense spending is going up and will continue to go up, no matter who is in power and regardless of deficits. Thus, when we looked at defense companies, American counterparts were more expensive and had relatively shorter (though increasing) growth runways. We bought European defense stocks, and so far, it looks like we made the right bet.
On the surface, one of the main risks of buying foreign stocks is that we are making a bet against the US dollar. As you’ll see, this is a bit more nuanced than simply where stocks are listed.I don’t know where the dollar will be over the next five or ten years. Nobody does. Currencies are priced relative to one another. Thus, to forecast the US dollar versus the euro, I’d need two crystal balls – one for the US and another for the EU. I don’t have even one.There are a lot of policies the new administration wants to implement that may cause the dollar to appreciate. For instance, less regulation – if Musk succeeds – would be a huge positive for US economic growth. We need a lot more pragmatism in Washington, DC, something we’ve lost over the years.
But then, the US government embracing Bitcoin is probably one of the most idiotic policy ideas I’ve ever seen come from a politician (though there are contenders). It’s especially baffling when you consider that the only reason we’re not dealing with 20% mortgage rates and 30% car loans – despite our $36 trillion (and growing) debt – is that the US dollar remains the world’s reserve currency. The US dollar doesn’t have good contenders, and this is why the US government watering the seeds of one makes little sense to me. (I wrote about the problems with Bitcoin here).
Also, often foreign stocks are only foreign in name. This is where things get nuanced fast. Philip Morris International (PM) is listed on the NYSE but today gets most of its sales from outside the US. British American Tobacco (BTI), listed in London and also trading as an ADR (American depositary receipt) in the US – despite having “British” in its name – gets half of its sales from the US and half from the rest of the world. We own Swedish and Canadian oil companies. When it comes to oil companies, the location of their assets matter far more than where the companies themselves are listed. Most of the oil assets that these companies hold are in Canada. We chose these companies not only because they’re significantly undervalued and have strong balance sheets, but also because they’re led by exceptional management teams who excel at running the business and at capital allocation – an uncommon trait in the commodity space.
Also, oil is a global commodity, and while many factors affect its price, it’s also indirectly a bet on a weakening US dollar, since oil is priced in US dollars. We have to take this into account when constructing our portfolio.Then we have a UK company that makes components for the aerospace industry.
However, aerospace is a global industry, and over the longer term, the company’s stock performance will be tied entirely to what the aerospace industry as a whole is doing. Its performance will be indifferent to where it’s listed. We bought it at a fraction of the valuation of its American counterparts.We pay close attention to our concentration in a particular country, as well as to our exposure to specific currencies and industries. But as you can see, it’s a lot more nuanced and intricate than simply looking at where a company is traded. Our default choice it to buy American companies; but at the end of the day, our goal is to grow your wealth while keeping the volatility of your blood pressure low, so that you don’t have to worry about the markets. Today the average US stock is trading at a nosebleed valuation. High-quality, undervalued, well-managed foreign-listed stocks are where we’re finding opportunities to hopefully achieve this goal, even if it means more headaches for the IMA team. One more thought: In the late 1990s, value investors experienced both paradise and hell. As tech and dotcom stocks soared higher, there were many cheap stocks to choose from that were neglected by the inflating bubble. That was the paradise part – an abundance of undervalued companies to pick from while the crowd stampeded into the bubble. The hell, of course, was the pain of being left behind while the crowd uncorked champagne.Today, if you only invest in the US, you’re experiencing two hells. Your stocks are underperforming, and even inexpensive stocks are expensive.
Yes, welcome to double hell. European stocks, however, offer paradise today. True, Europe is not the place it used to be a few decades ago – which is precisely why nuance and stock picking are so important. Value stocks always look less exciting than the ones everyone is talking about.
I’d love to hear your thoughts, so please leave your comment and feedback here. Also, if you missed my previous article “Embracing Stock Market Stoicism”, you can read it and leave a comment here.
Posted on January 30, 2025 by Dr. David Edward Marcinko MBA MEd CMP™
MEDICAL EXECUTIVE-POST–TODAY’SNEWSLETTERBRIEFING
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Essays, Opinions and Curated News in Health Economics, Investing, Business, Management and Financial Planning for Physician Entrepreneurs and their Savvy Advisors and Consultants
“Serving Almost One Million Doctors, Financial Advisors and Medical Management Consultants Daily“
A Partner of the Institute of Medical Business Advisors , Inc.
Over half the US population was affected by the Change Healthcare cyberattack last February, according to a statement from its parent company UnitedHealth Group. While United had told the federal government in October that 100 million people were hit by the attacks, an updated estimate on Monday put that number at 190 million.
The tech-heavy NASDAQ Composite (^IXIC) was down about 0.5%, retracing some of a bounce-back rally on Tuesday. The S&P 500 (^GSPC) was also down nearly 0.5%, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average (^DJI) lost 0.3%. In its statement on Wednesday, the Federal Reserve notably removed language from its December statement indicating that it was making progress towards its goal of 2% inflation, stating simply: “Inflation remains somewhat elevated.” Fed Chair Jerome Powell pushed back on that notion, referring to the change as “language cleanup” rather than intending to send a signal. Markets bounced off their lows of the day on Powell’s comments.
Posted on January 10, 2025 by Dr. David Edward Marcinko MBA MEd CMP™
By Staff Reporters
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China’s 10-year bond yield plunged to a record low this month, while the Chinese currency [yuan] traded in Hong Kong on Wednesday hit its weakest against the U.S. dollar in more than a year.
The People’s Bank of China is “trying to cool down the market by suspending government bond buying,” said Larry Hu, chief China economist at Macquarie.
And, the U.S. economy added a much larger-than-expected total of new hires last month, adding more upward pressure to wage inflation and likely stoking a further selloff in U.S. Treasury bonds.
The Bureau of Labor Statistics said 256,000 new jobs were created last month, well ahead Wall Street’s 164,000 forecast and the down-wardly revised 212,000 reading from November.
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Finally, Wall Street’s major averages are tumbling today as investors digested the hotter than expected jobs report. Early on and the S&P 500 (SP500) was -1.7%, the NASDAQ Composite (COMP:IND) was -2.2%, and the Dow (DJI) was -1.3%.
Posted on January 2, 2025 by Dr. David Edward Marcinko MBA MEd CMP™
By Staff Reporters
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Understanding the K-shaped Economy
According to Olivia Voltaggio, in a V-shaped economy, things go down but then bounce back for everyone. In a K-shaped economy, the overall economy might go down. Only some parts of it recover, while others keep struggling.
In a K-shaped economy, people’s financial situations vary widely. Not everyone faces the same struggles. Lenders and financial institutions need to be flexible with strategy. They need to understand the different challenges their customers are dealing with.
Navigate with caution: The gaps in economic recovery highlight the importance of taking a careful, strategic approach.
How did we end up with a K-shaped recovery in 2024?
Inflation-driven price increases seem to be getting more stable. But, they may not reach the goal set by the government until 2026. This has made things more expensive for regular families.
For example, people with student loan debt had to start paying it back in October 2023. This was after a pandemic-induced grace period. Student loan repayment made budgeting harder. Borrowers might need to spend more on average than expected. For young adults (Gen Z), it could be even more.
Finally, more people are using credit cards because things are getting more expensive. Some are struggling to pay their credit card bills on time.
Posted on December 31, 2024 by Dr. David Edward Marcinko MBA MEd CMP™
By Staff Reporters
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The Lucas Paradox occurs when capital is not flowing from developed countries to developing countries despite the fact that developing countries have lower levels of capital per worker, and therefore higher returns to capital.
According to Wikipedia, economic theory predicts that capital should flow from rich countries to poor countries, due to the effect of diminishing returns of capital. Poor countries have lower levels of capital per worker – which explains, in part, why they are poor. In poor countries, the scarcity of capital relative to labor should mean that the returns related to the infusion of capital are higher than in developed countries.
In response, savers in rich countries should look at poor countries as profitable places in which to invest. In reality, things do not seem to work that way. Surprisingly little capital flows from rich countries to poor countries. This puzzle was famously discussed in a paper by Robert Lucas PhD in 1990.
Posted on December 31, 2024 by Dr. David Edward Marcinko MBA MEd CMP™
MEDICAL EXECUTIVE-POST–TODAY’SNEWSLETTERBRIEFING
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Essays, Opinions and Curated News in Health Economics, Investing, Business, Management and Financial Planning for Physician Entrepreneurs and their Savvy Advisors and Consultants
“Serving Almost One Million Doctors, Financial Advisors and Medical Management Consultants Daily“
A Partner of the Institute of Medical Business Advisors , Inc.
Stat: 4 in 10. That’s about how many US nursing home residents got an updated Covid-19 vaccine in the winter of 2023–24, according to the CDC, despite the recommendation that adults 65 and older get the new shot. (KFF)
Stocks fell on Monday, with the woes of the three major indexes continuing in the final week of the year as an otherwise strong 2024 comes to a close.
The benchmark S&P 500 (^GSPC) slipped more than 1% while the tech-heavy NASDAQ Composite (^IXIC) fell roughly 1.2%. The Dow Jones Industrial Average (^DJI) fell about 0.8%.
Stocks moved lower as the 10-year Treasury yield (^TNX) retreated from a seven-month high to hover near 4.55%. Stocks closed out last week with a Friday slide from Big Tech names like Tesla (TSLA) and Nvidia (NVDA), with the NASDAQ Composite falling 1.5% and the S&P 500 down over 1%.
Chinese state-sponsored hackers breached the U.S. Treasury Department’s computer security guardrails this month and stole documents in what Treasury called a “major incident,” according to a letter to lawmakers that was provided to Reuters on Monday.
The hackers compromised third-party cybersecurity service provider BeyondTrust and were able to access unclassified documents, the letter said.
The Federal Reserve cut interest rates by a quarter of a percentage point just now, delivering relief for borrowers at the central bank’s last meeting before President-elect Donald Trump takes office next month. The central bank predicted fewer rate cuts next year than it had previously indicated, however, suggesting concern that inflation may prove more difficult to bring under control than policymakers thought just a few months ago.
The move marked the third consecutive interest rate cut since the Fed opted to start dialing back its fight against inflation in the fall. The FOMC has lowered interest rates by a percentage point in recent months.
However, the Fed’s forecast said it anticipates only a half a percentage point of rate cuts next year and another half-percent cut in 2026.
The breakeven inflation rate is the difference between the nominal yield (usually the market yield, which includes an inflation premium) on a fixed-income investment and the real yield (with no inflation premium) on an inflation-linked investment of similar maturity and credit quality.
So, if inflation averages more than the breakeven rate, the inflation-linked investment will outperform the investment with the nominal yield.
Conversely, if inflation averages below the breakeven rate, the investment with the nominal yield will outperform the inflation-linked investment.
Breakeven inflation rates are also considered useful measures of inflation expectations—higher breakeven rates represent higher inflation expectations (and higher relative prices for inflation-linked investments), while lower breakeven rates represent lower inflation expectations (and lower relative prices for inflation-linked investments).
Therefore, ideally, investors want to purchase inflation-linked investments when breakeven rates are relatively low because that’s typically when prices are also relatively low.
The Rule of 20 is a dimensionless number that adds the current 12-month trailing Price to Earnings Ratio to the annual change in an index of the annual consumer inflation rate. A reading below 20, while a market is trending lower, means that we could be near a bottom.
In the United States, the most common index used is the broad-based S&P 500, and CPI-U is used as a proxy for inflation.
The Rule of 20 is purportedly a rule from Peter Lynch. In chapter 39 of Graham and Dodd’s seminal Security Analysis, they mention: “We would suggest that about 20 times average earnings is as high a price as can be paid in an investment purchase of a common stock” … with no mention of inflation.
Lynch’s formulation attempts to factor the ‘gravity’ of interest rates into the fair value of a stock. And, as you can see, the measure has fluctuated quite a bit. However, it has returned to roughly the 20 level repeatedly.
Posted on December 11, 2024 by Dr. David Edward Marcinko MBA MEd CMP™
MEDICAL EXECUTIVE-POST–TODAY’SNEWSLETTERBRIEFING
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Essays, Opinions and Curated News in Health Economics, Investing, Business, Management and Financial Planning for Physician Entrepreneurs and their Savvy Advisors and Consultants
“Serving Almost One Million Doctors, Financial Advisors and Medical Management Consultants Daily“
A Partner of the Institute of Medical Business Advisors , Inc.
According to reporting from the Wall Street Journal, the pharmacy chain Walgreen’s is discussing selling to private equity (PE) firm Sycamore Partners, a deal that could close early next year. This comes following a tumultuous year for the company, which announced it would close 1,200 stores in October and laid off more than 250 employees in November. The PE firm is allegedly considering selling off pieces of the business or working with partners, sources told the Journal. Following the news, Walgreens’s stock jumped 28%, its biggest single-day increase since 1980, according to Yahoo Finance.
Inflation rose 2.7% on an annual basis in November, according to the latest government report on the Consumer Price Index, or CPI. Last month’s CPI was forecast to come in at 2.7%, according to economists surveyed by financial data firm FactSet. The Consumer Price Index, a basket of goods and services typically bought by consumers, tracks the change in those prices over time.
US stocks opened higher on Wednesday as investors digested another month of sticky inflation data that met economists’ expectations and likely pointed to a Federal Reserve interest rate cut next week. The Dow Jones Industrial Average (^DJI) increased about 0.2%, while the S&P 500 (^GSPC) jumped nearly 0.5%. The tech-heavy NASDAQ Composite (^IXIC) also added to across-the-board gains, rising roughly 0.8%.
Swaps (a.k.a. swap agreements) are two-party contracts entered into primarily by institutional investors for periods ranging from a few weeks to more than one year.
In a standard “swap” transaction, two parties agree to exchange the returns (or differentials in rates of return) earned or realized on particular predetermined investments or instruments. The gross returns to be exchanged or “swapped” between the parties are generally calculated with respect to a “notional amount,” i.e., the return on or increase in value of a particular dollar amount invested at a particular interest rate, in a particular foreign currency, or in a “basket” of securities representing a particular index.
Forms of swap agreements include interestrate swaps (under which fixed- or floating-rate interest payments on a specific principal amount are exchanged) and total return swaps (under which one party agrees to pay the other the total return of a defined underlying asset in exchange for fee payments).
In addition, credit default swaps enable an investor to buy/sell protection against a credit event of a specific issuer. The seller of credit protection against a security or basket of securities receives an up-front or periodic payment to compensate against potential default(s).
Real Bond Yield: For most bonds and other fixed-income securities, real yield is simply the yield you see listed online or in newspapers minus the premium added to help counteract the effects of inflation. Most “nominal” fixed-income yields include an “inflation premium” that is typically priced into the yields to help offset the effects of inflation.
Real yields, such as those for TIPS, don’t have the inflation premium. As a result, TIPS yields and other real yields are typically lower than most nominal yields
Negative Bond Yield: In a normal bond market environment, bond yields are positive, and bond issuers (including governments) make interest payments to investors who lend them money.
In an abnormal, or negative-yield environment, investors essentially pay the bond issuer to hold their money.
Posted on November 29, 2024 by Dr. David Edward Marcinko MBA MEd CMP™
Is it Good for Retailers … but Bad for Doctors and Consumers?
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If Black Friday 2024 is anything like 2023, retailers may not be swimming in cash while shoppers bathe in savings. Black Friday deals drew 212 million shoppers to stores in fabulous 2010 and collectively spent $39 billion on products and services.
And, the average amount spent by a Black Friday shopper in 2010 was a whopping $365.34.
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Assessment
We predict Black Friday 2024 sales surpass 2023 with a slight increase over 20222 because of fewer shopping days; and the COVID pandemic explosion..
QUESTION: But, is Black Friday good for the [healthcare] economics sector post [thu] the pandemic? Do patients go shopping rather than to the doctor? What about inflation?
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Conclusion
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Spread duration is a risk measure, expressed in years, that estimates the price sensitivity of a fixed income investment to a 100 basis point change in credit spreads relative to similar-maturity Treasuries.
Spread sectors (aka “spread products,” “spread securities”) in fixed income parlance, are typically non-Treasury securities that usually trade in the fixed income markets at higher yields than same-maturity U.S. Treasury securities. The yield difference between Treasuries and non-Treasuries is called the “spread”), hence the name “spread sectors” for non-Treasuries.
These sectors–such as corporate-issued securities and mortgage-backed securities (MBS–typically trade at higher yields (spreads) than Treasuries because they usually have relatively lower credit quality and more credit / default risk and / or they have more prepayment risk.
Spread widening, tightening are changes in spreads that reflect changes in relative value, with “spread widening” usually indicating relative price depreciation and “spread tightening” indicating relative price appreciation.
In fixed income parlance, spreads are simply measured differences or gaps that exists between two interest rates or yields that are being compared with each other. Spreads typically exist and are measured between fixed income securities of the same credit quality, but different maturities, or of the same maturity, but different credit quality.
Changes in spreads typically reflect changes in relative value, with “spread widening” usually indicating relative price depreciation of the securities whose yields are increasing most, and “spread tightening” indicating relative price appreciation of the securities whose yields are declining most (or remaining relatively fixed while other yields are rising to meet them). Value-oriented investors typically seek to buy when spreads are relatively wide and sell after spreads tighten.
Basis Points are used in financial literature to express values that are carried out to two decimal places (hundredths of a percentage point), particularly ratios, such as yields, fees, and returns. Basis points describe values that are typically on the right side of the decimal point–one basis point equals one one-hundredth of a percentage point (0.01%). So 25 basis points equals 0.25%, and 50 basis points equals 0.50%.
Only when basis points equal or exceed 100 does the value move to the left of the decimal point–100 basis points equals 1.00%, 500 basis points equals 5.00%, etc.
Bid/Ask Spread (also known as bid/offer spread) is the difference between the National Best Bid and the National Best Offer, which represents the implied cost to trade a security.
As compensation for the risk taken, the market maker (or dealer) earns the bid/offer spread in exchange for facilitating the trade. Wider spreads generally indicate higher costs associated with trading the underlying assets in the ETF, hedging costs, inventory management costs, and general market risk.
Stocks sank yesterday on news that Russian President Vladimir Putin lowered the threshold for using nuclear weapons, retaliation against the US for allowing Ukraine to use American-made long-range missiles. The NASDAQ and S&P 500 managed to recover, but the DJIA stayed all day in the red.
Treasury yields dropped as bonds rose.
Gold popped as traders sought safety, as the commodity benefited from the US dollar pulling back from a recent one-year high.
Bitcoin continued to climb slowly but surely, reaching another new all-time high.
Posted on November 14, 2024 by Dr. David Edward Marcinko MBA MEd CMP™
MEDICAL EXECUTIVE-POST–TODAY’SNEWSLETTERBRIEFING
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Essays, Opinions and Curated News in Health Economics, Investing, Business, Management and Financial Planning for Physician Entrepreneurs and their Savvy Advisors and Consultants
“Serving Almost One Million Doctors, Financial Advisors and Medical Management Consultants Daily“
A Partner of the Institute of Medical Business Advisors , Inc.
UnitedHealth Group posted nearly $6.1 billion in profit last quarter, edging out Elevance Health with $5.6 billion. Paige Minemyer has more takeaways from third quarter earnings results.
Cigna told investors the company is no longer pursuing a merger with Humana, opting to avoid tricky questions from federal regulators.
EV startup Rivian popped 13.71% after announcing a new $5.8 billion joint venture with Volkswagen to collaborate on a new line of vehicles that will begin rolling off the assembly line in 2027.
Rocket Lab…rocketed 28.44% to a new all-time high after increasing revenue 55% last quarter and announcing the first launch deal for its new Neutron rocket.
CharterCommunications will purchase LibertyBroadband in an all-stock deal. Charter shares rose 3.63% on the news, while Liberty shares sank 5.05%.
Cava reported strong earnings today, including impressive same-store sales growth of 18%. Shares soared on the open, though ended the day up just 1.57%.
Flutter Entertainment, parent company of sports betting app FanDuel, rose 6.89% to hit an all-time high thanks to incredibly strong betting on the NFL last quarter.
STOCKS DOWN
The problems continue at Super Micro Computer, which announced it will need EVEN MORE time to submit its quarterly 10-Q form to the SEC. That’s on top of the delayed filing of its annual 10-K filing from back in June—and if it doesn’t file that by November 16, the stock will be delisted from the Nasdaq. Shares sank 6.31%.
Spirit Airlinesreally may go bankrupt this time. The beleaguered airline has lost hope of merging with FrontierAirlines, so shares plunged 59.32%.
Maplebear, which is the parent company of Instacart, delivered bad news for shareholders: Next quarter will be worse than expected. Shares fell 11.01%.
SoundHoundAI reported record revenue last quarter, but shares plummeted 17.06% after the voice recognition stock also revealed much lower margins.
The S&P 500® index (SPX) rose 1.39 points (0.02%) to 5,985.38; the Dow Jones Industrial Average® ($DJI) added 47.21 points (0.11%) to 43,958.19; and the NASDAQ Composite®($COMP) fell 50.66 points (–0.26%) to 19,230.74.
The 10-year Treasury note yield added two basis points to 4.45%, just below last week’s four-month high.
The CBOE Volatility Index® (VIX) slid to 14.03, down sharply from above 20 early last week.
The Labor Department on Wednesday reported that consumer prices in October rose 2.6% from a year earlier. That marks a pickup in the pace of inflation from September, when prices were up 2.4% on the year.
A digital token inspired by a Shiba Inu dog meme is now worth more than the company that pioneered the assembly line. Yesterday, dogecoin continued its post-election surge to become more valuable than 121-year-old Ford.
Visualize: How private equity tangled banks in a web of debt, from the Financial Times.
Currency Hedging is a risk-management strategy, as part of a foreign investment strategy, currency hedging is designed to reduce the impact from changes in the relative values of currencies involved in the foreign investment strategy.
In any foreign investment strategy, a significant part of the potential risk and return comes from exposure to relative currency value fluctuations. If exposure to those currency fluctuations is minimized, investors can experience more of a “pure play” exposure to the foreign investments. There is a variety of possible currency hedging strategies, ranging from swaps, options, and spot contracts to simply buying foreign currencies.
Currency Overlay is a financial trading strategy used to separate the management of currency risk from other portfolio strategies. A currency overlay manager can seek to hedge the risk from adverse movements in exchange rates, and/or attempt to profit from tactical currency views.
Posted on November 8, 2024 by Dr. David Edward Marcinko MBA MEd CMP™
MEDICAL EXECUTIVE-POST–TODAY’SNEWSLETTERBRIEFING
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Essays, Opinions and Curated News in Health Economics, Investing, Business, Management and Financial Planning for Physician Entrepreneurs and their Savvy Advisors and Consultants
“Serving Almost One Million Doctors, Financial Advisors and Medical Management Consultants Daily“
A Partner of the Institute of Medical Business Advisors , Inc.
The Federal Reserve cut interest rates by 0.25 percentage points Thursday, the second consecutive cut after a two-year rate-hike run to curb post-pandemic inflation.
Lyft announced impressive earnings results thanks to more commuters using the ride-hailing service, as well as upbeat guidance for the future. Shares rose 22.92%.
Shareholders worried about a housing market slowdown hurting Zillow had nothing to fear: The real estate website crushed earnings estimates, and shares popped 23.77%.
Warner Bros. Discovery enjoyed its biggest single-quarter surge in subscribers ever thanks to streaming service Max, which sent shares soaring 11.81%.
UnderArmour rocketed 23.33% higher after its cost-savings plan paid off last quarter and management guided for a strong quarter ahead.
Planet Fitness surprised shareholders with a solid quarter for the gym giant, as well as forecasts of more growth ahead. Shares climbed 11.26%.
Prison operators GEOGroup and CoreCivic both surged on Trump’s election, and their rally continued today—in-spite of very different paths forward for each stock. GEO Group gained 13.63%, while CoreCivic rose 25.60%.
What’s down
Trump Media & Technology Group was one of the biggest winners on election night, and although the stock soared over the last few days, investors decided to take profits today. Shares sank 22.97%.
Wolfspeed plummeted 39.24% after announcing larger-than-expected losses last quarter, poor forecasts for next quarter, and layoffs to cut costs.
Match Group shareholders were heartbroken to hear that Tinder’s revenue fell last quarter, though strong revenue growth from Hinge helped ease the pain. Shares dropped 17.87%.
Virgin Galactic isn’t just a mean nickname from your high school years—it’s also a space stock that can’t make money to save its life. Shares fell 11.87%.
The S&P 500®index (SPX) rose 44.06 points (0.74%) to 5,973.10; the Dow Jones Industrial Average® ($DJI) fell 0.59 points (0.00%) to 43,729.34; and the NASDAQ Composite®($COMP) gained 285.99 points (1.51%) to 19,269.46.
The 10-year Treasury note yield (TNX) fell nine basis points to 4.34%, with most of the drop coming long before the Fed decision.
The CBOE Volatility Index® (VIX) continued its post-election plunge to 15.21.
Stocks surged and stayed higher all yesterday day on news of Donald Trump’s presidential victory. The Dow rocketed over 1,350 points as soon as markets opened, and all three indexes ended the day at record highs.
Treasuryyields have paralleled Trump’s chances of taking the White House for the last few weeks, and his election sent them soaring to over 4.46% at one point today.
Oil and gold both fell as the dollar rose after Trump’s win. The greenback popped on the promise of Trump’s protectionist tariff policies and the lower likelihood of the Fed cutting interest rates as fast as previously expected.
Bitcoin surged as traders celebrated the beginning of the new, friendlier regulatory environment that Trump promised during his campaign.
Posted on November 7, 2024 by Dr. David Edward Marcinko MBA MEd CMP™
MEDICAL EXECUTIVE-POST–TODAY’SNEWSLETTERBRIEFING
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Essays, Opinions and Curated News in Health Economics, Investing, Business, Management and Financial Planning for Physician Entrepreneurs and their Savvy Advisors and Consultants
“Serving Almost One Million Doctors, Financial Advisors and Medical Management Consultants Daily“
A Partner of the Institute of Medical Business Advisors , Inc.
One more group of stocks that soared on a Trump election: Big Tech companies with antitrust problems. Another Trump presidency should go a long way toward clearing up the regulatory hurdles many companies have faced recently, which is why Alphabet popped 3.99% and Amazon rose 3.8%.
CVS Health surged 11.33% after meeting revenue forecasts but missing earnings expectations. However, the miss was due to a one-time charge, so shareholders quickly forgave the healthcare retailer.
Planet Fitness gained 6.09% on a surprise bid for bankrupt fitness chain Blink Holdings in an attempt to bolster its own gym business.
Stocks Down
Super Micro Computer had a chance to show the world it wasn’t committing the fraud it has recently been accused of. Instead, the company announced it is still unable to determine when it will file the quarterly report due August 29. Shares crashed 18.05%.
Home builder stocks sank on fears that a Trump presidency will slow the rate of Fed rate cuts, keeping mortgage rates higher for longer. DR Horton fell 3.8%, Lennar dropped 4.84%, PulteGroup lost 3.09%, and TollBrothers tumbled 1.46%.
Cannabis stocks were betting big on a ballot measure in Florida to allow the sale of recreational marijuana. The initiative’s failure sent shares of Curaleaf plummeting 29.17%, TrulieveCannabis plunged 38.8%, and AyrWellness sank 55.87%.
The S&P 500®index (SPX) rose 146.28 points (2.53%) to 5,929.04; the Dow Jones Industrial Average® ($DJI) added 1,508.05 points (3.57%) to 43,729.93; and the NASDAQ Composite®($COMP) gained 544.29 points (2.95%) to 18,983.47—a new closing high.
The 10-year Treasury note yield (TNX) surged 14 basis points to 4.43%, its highest level since July.
The CBOE Volatility Index® (VIX) fell sharply to 16.3 as election-related uncertainty diminished.
Named for a U.S. economist, the JB Taylor Rule is a mathematical monetary-policy formula that recommends how much a central bank should change its nominal short-term interest rate target (such as the U.S. Federal Reserve’s federal funds rate target) in response to changes in economic conditions, particularly inflation and economic growth. It’s typically viewed as guideline for raising short-term interest rates as inflation and potentially inflationary pressures increase. The rule recommends a relatively high interest rate (“tight” monetary policy) when inflation is above its target or when the economy is above its full employment level, and a relatively low interest rate (“easy” monetary policy) under the opposite conditions.
To illustrate, the monetary policy of the FOMC, changed throughout the 20th century. The period between the 1960s and the 1970s is evaluated by Taylor and others as a period of poor monetary policy; the later years typically characterized as stagflation. The inflation rate was high and increasing, while interest rates were kept low. Since the mid-1970s monetary targets have been used in many countries as a means to target inflation.
However, in the 2000s the actual interest rate in advanced economics, notably in the US, was kept below the value suggested by the Taylor rule.
Posted on November 2, 2024 by Dr. David Edward Marcinko MBA MEd CMP™
MEDICAL EXECUTIVE-POST–TODAY’SNEWSLETTERBRIEFING
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Essays, Opinions and Curated News in Health Economics, Investing, Business, Management and Financial Planning for Physician Entrepreneurs and their Savvy Advisors and Consultants
“Serving Almost One Million Doctors, Financial Advisors and Medical Management Consultants Daily“
A Partner of the Institute of Medical Business Advisors , Inc.
Ford paused production of its F-150 Lightning electric truck from mid-November to early January as demand for the once-coveted EV dwindles.
Peloton named Peter Stern, the co-founder of Apple Fitness+, as its next CEO.
Starbucksis bringing back Sharpied names on cups for the first time in four years as new CEO Brian Niccol tries to shake up the struggling coffee chain.
Boeing offered striking machinists yet another new contract offer, including a 38% pay raise over the next four years. The union will vote on the contract on Monday. Shares climbed 3.54%.
Avis Budget motored 10.92% higher despite missing forecasts on both earnings and revenue. Shareholders celebrated the rental car company’s strong growth expectations from management and took advantage of a cheap valuation.
Globalstar rocketed 32.38% after the satellite communications company announced an expanded deal with Apple.
Charter Communications soared 11.87% after losing fewer subscribers than expected, which is like a back-handed compliment in the investing world.
STOCKS DOWN
Trump Media & Technology Group remains on the roller coaster, falling another 13.53% today as early exit polls show Vice President Kamala Harris with a lead in several key states.
Wayfair may have met earnings expectations last quarter, but the online home goods retailer also lost customers and fulfilled fewer orders. Shares fell 6.26%.
Super Micro Computer continued to sell off after the resignation of its financial auditor, an almost-sure sign of fraud. Shares sank another 10.51%.
The S&P 500®index (SPX) rose 23.35 (0.41%) to 5,728.80 to end the week down 1.37%; the Dow Jones Industrial Average® ($DJI) added 288.73 points (0.69%) to 42,052.19 to end the week down 0.15%; and the NASDAQ Composite®($COMP) gained 144.76 points (0.80%) to 18,239.92 to end the week down 1.50%.
The 10-year Treasury note yield (TNX) climbed eight points to 4.36%, the highest since early July.
The CBOE Volatility Index® (VIX)remained elevated at 21.88.
Posted on October 24, 2024 by Dr. David Edward Marcinko MBA MEd CMP™
MEDICAL EXECUTIVE-POST–TODAY’SNEWSLETTERBRIEFING
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Essays, Opinions and Curated News in Health Economics, Investing, Business, Management and Financial Planning for Physician Entrepreneurs and their Savvy Advisors and Consultants
“Serving Almost One Million Doctors, Financial Advisors and Medical Management Consultants Daily“
A Partner of the Institute of Medical Business Advisors , Inc.
Quote: “It looks like the global battle against inflation has largely been won, even if price pressures persist in some countries. In most countries, inflation is now hovering close to central bank targets…The decline in inflation without a global recession is a major achievement.”—IMF (CNN Business)
Spirit Airlines is back from the dead, soaring 46.67% on a Wall Street Journal report that it may end up merging with FrontierAirlines after all. Frontier Airlines rose 0.76% on the news.
AT&T climbed 4.65% after it beat earnings expectations in the third quarter, though it missed on revenue.
Starbucks fell hard late yesterday but recovered a bit this afternoon after new CEO Brian Niccol said the coffee chain is suspending its 2025 fiscal outlook. Shares rose 0.86% today.
Coca-Cola fizzled 2.07% after beating both top and bottom line expectations. The problem is that the only reason the soda giant performed well was because it raised prices, while demand for soft drinks slowed.
Enphase Energy plummeted 14.92% after the solar stock missed on both earnings and revenue expectations last quarter.
Boeing is a very familiar name in the “What’s down” section, and its latest earnings report did nothing to help. The manufacturing giant notched a $6 billion loss last quarter, and shares fell 1.76%.
The SPX fell 53.78 points (–0.92%) to 5,797.42; the Dow Jones Industrial Average® ($DJI) lost 409.94 points (–0.96%) to 42,514.95; and the NASDAQ Composite ($COMP) dropped 296.47 points (–1.60%) to 18,276.65.
The 10-year Treasury note yield gained four basis points to 4.24%.
Posted on October 17, 2024 by Dr. David Edward Marcinko MBA MEd CMP™
By Staff Reporters
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Authors of the seminal textbook Why Nations Fail, Daron Acemoglu, James Robinson, and former International Monetary Fund chief economist Simon Johnson will split the roughly $1 million cash prize for their research, which found a link between a country’s prosperity and the institutions it established during European colonization.
Places developed either “inclusive” or “extractive” institutions based on population density. The former allowed for inclusive governance (i.e., democracy), while the latter extracted resources to benefit a small group of elites.
Countries that developed inclusive institutions have experienced long-term prosperity; those with exclusive institutions haven’t. “Broadly speaking, the work that we have done favors democracy,” Acemoglu said.
Eample: In the twin cities of Nogales, on the US-Mexico border, the north and south parts of the transborder city have the same climate and the same resources, but the section in the US is far richer because of the country’s institutions, according to the researchers.
Critics. Some academics argue the Nobel winners’ premise ignores the effects of culture on prosperity. Others point to an irrefutable counterexample: China continues to experience explosive growth despite having an autocratic government.
Posted on October 17, 2024 by Dr. David Edward Marcinko MBA MEd CMP™
MEDICAL EXECUTIVE-POST–TODAY’SNEWSLETTERBRIEFING
Essays, Opinions and Curated News in Health Economics, Investing, Business, Management and Financial Planning for Physician Entrepreneurs and their Savvy Advisors and Consultants
“Serving Almost One Million Doctors, Financial Advisors and Medical Management Consultants Daily“
A Partner of the Institute of Medical Business Advisors , Inc.
Goldman Sachs’ profit jumped 45% in monster quarter. The investment bank made $3 billion of profit on revenue of nearly $13 billion in Q3, it reported yesterday, surpassing even the rosiest of expectations. Bloomberg reported that it was the best quarter ever for Goldman’s stock trading unit, putting the group on track for a record year.
Walgreenssaid it will close 1,200 US stores, about one in seven locations, by 2027. The retailer will shutter 500 stores by the end of next year.
Trump Media & Technology Group has had a wild week, falling nearly 10% yesterday before trading of the stock was halted, then popping 15.52% today. Election hype, a Trump-sponsored cryptocurrency, and Truth+, a new streaming service, are keeping shareholders on their toes.
Abbott Laboratories rose 1.53% thanks to a stronger-than-expected earnings report powered by the company’s impressive medical device sales.
Aspen Aerogels makes insulating material for batteries, which sounds boring to everyone but the Department of Energy. The DOE signed a conditional commitment to loan the company up to $670 million, sending shares 13.24% higher.
DOWN STOCKS
Novavax plummeted 19.44% after the FDA put a hold on the pharma company’s flu and Covid vaccine combination.
Interactive Brokers enjoyed higher revenue and more trading from its user base last quarter, but earnings per share came in under expectations, and shares sank 4.05%.
The SPX rose27.21points (0.47%) to 5,842.47; the Dow Jones Industrial Average® ($DJI) added 337.28 points (0.79%) to 43,077.70; and the NASDAQ Composite®($COMP) increased 51.49 points (0.28%) to 18.367.08.
The 10-year Treasury note yield (TNX) fell two basis points to just below 4.02%, the lowest close since October 4.
The CBOE Volatility Index® (VIX) dropped moderately to 19.58, still elevated considering stock market strength.
Posted on October 15, 2024 by Dr. David Edward Marcinko MBA MEd CMP™
MEDICAL EXECUTIVE-POST–TODAY’SNEWSLETTERBRIEFING
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Essays, Opinions and Curated News in Health Economics, Investing, Business, Management and Financial Planning for Physician Entrepreneurs and their Savvy Advisors and Consultants
“Serving Almost One Million Doctors, Financial Advisors and Medical Management Consultants Daily“
A Partner of the Institute of Medical Business Advisors , Inc.
Maximum lifespans. The upper limit of human life expectancy is leveling out, according to a new study published in the journal Nature Aging. Back in 1990, life-extending tech and health measures were increasing the average global lifespan by about 2.5 years per decade, but that dropped to 1.5 years per decade in the 2010s and closer to zero in the US, where there are more drug overdoses, shootings, and medical care inequities.
Stocks kicked off the first full week of earnings season at full throttle. The S&P 500 rose to a new intraday record, the Dow closed above 43,000 for the first time ever, and the NASDAQ climbed steadily throughout the trading session.
Bitcoin soared on the news of China’s additional stimulus spending that broke this weekend. Although the Chinese government’s plans are light on details at the moment, the promise of more support for the world’s second largest economy was enough to get crypto traders hyped.
Interestingly enough, those same promises of Chinese stimulus sent oil tumbling to start the day. The selling was exacerbated by OPEC’s announcement that crude demand will fall lower than expected in 2024 and 2025.
Gold sank a hair today as traders weighed Chinese stimulus against a stronger dollar.
The S&P 500® index (SPX) rose44.82points (0.77%) to 5,859.85, a new closing high; the Dow Jones Industrial Average® ($DJI) increased 201.36 points (0.47%) to 43,065.22, also a new closing high; and the NASDAQ Composite®($COMP) added 159.74 points (0.87%) to 18,502.69.
The 10-year Treasury note yield (TNX) did not trade today due to the holiday.
The CBOE Volatility Index® (VIX) slipped to 19.9, its first drop below 20 since October 4.
A slate of corporate earnings reports coming from Goldman Sachs, Bank of America, and Citigroup in the financial sector, along with healthcare giants Johnson & Johnson, Walgreens, and UnitedHealth. And throughout the week: Morgan Stanley will report on Wednesday, Netflix reports on Thursday, and Procter & Gamble and American Express drop their financials on Friday. It’ll pose a big test for the stock market’s $8 trillion rally this year.
Posted on October 14, 2024 by Dr. David Edward Marcinko MBA MEd CMP™
By Staff Reporters
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U.S. stock markets, including the New York Stock Exchange and the NASDAQ remain open and follow a regular schedule today.
The bond markets will be closed, however.
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Stocks ended last week on a high note, closing out their fifth straight week of gains. The Dow was pushed to yet another new all-time high by strong earnings from JPMorgan, while the S&P 500 was in the green and rose to its own record close, and the NASDAQ clawed its way out of the red by early Friday afternoon.
Bond yields took a breather, falling below 4.1% thanks to a better-than-expected PPI report that helped offset inflation fears that had re-arisen after a worse-than-expected CPI report.
Gold rose as well on PPI news, since the data pointed to a better chance of more rate cuts ahead.
Oil fell a bit but gained over the last two weeks on geopolitical tensions and destruction in the Gulf of Mexico following the two major hurricanes.
Posted on October 5, 2024 by Dr. David Edward Marcinko MBA MEd CMP™
MEDICAL EXECUTIVE-POST–TODAY’SNEWSLETTERBRIEFING
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Essays, Opinions and Curated News in Health Economics, Investing, Business, Management and Financial Planning for Physician Entrepreneurs and their Savvy Advisors and Consultants
“Serving Almost One Million Doctors, Financial Advisors and Medical Management Consultants Daily“
A Partner of the Institute of Medical Business Advisors , Inc.
PayPal completed its first transaction using its proprietary stablecoin to pay an invoice to Ernst & Young. It’s a milestone for the payments company’s advance into cryptocurrency.
The free IRS tax filing software, which was piloted in 12 states for the 2024 tax season, will be available in 24 states for 2025.
Your loss is our gain: Shares of airline stocks popped on the news of Spirit’s problems. Delta Air Lines ascended 3.84%, United Airlines climbed 6.47%, and Frontier Group Holdings soared 16.43%.
Albemarle popped 8.25% on the rumor that mining behemoth Rio Tinto may try to make an acquisition of the lithium miner. Other potential takeover targets rose as well, including Arcadium (up 10%) and SQM (up 3%).
Abercrombie & Fitch rose 9.10% thanks to an upgrade from JP Morgan analysts, who are bullish about the fashion retailer’s recent momentum.
Ubisoft Entertainment skyrocketed 29.87% on the news that the video game maker’s parent company and founders are considering a buyout.
Homebuilder stocks sank on today’s strong jobs report, which propelled treasury yields higher, which means that mortgage rates aren’t getting any lower. D.R. Horton dropped 2.91%, Lennar fell 2.52%, and Toll Brothers lost 2.57%.
Transportation stocks fell thanks to an agreement between port owners and longshoremen to put the recent strike on pause. Moller-Maersk lost 5.37%, while Zim IntegratedShipping Services stumbled 12.55%.
The S&P 500® index (SPX) climbed 51.13 points (0.9%) to 5,751.07 up 0.22% for the week;the Dow Jones Industrial Average® ($DJI) added 341.16 points (0.81%) to 42,352.75, up 0.09% for the week; and the NASDAQ Composite® ($COMP) rose 219.37 points (1.22%) to 18,137.85, up 0.1% for the week.
The 10-year Treasury note yield (TNX) soared 13 basis points to 3.98%, finishing the week up 23 basis points. The 2-year yield rose 37 basis points this week.
The CBOE Volatility Index® (VIX)fell to 18.58 but remains elevated from last month’s lows, likely on geopolitical concerns.
Only 2% of the homes hit by Hurricane Helene in Georgia, North Carolina, and South Carolina had a policy protecting them against catastrophic flooding, according to an analysis by Politico and E&E News.
The US Hiring Pace picked up strongly in September and the unemployment rate ticked down to 4.1%, signs the U.S. economy had continued momentum in a month the Federal Reserve delivered its first interest-rate cut in four years. U.S. employers added 254,000 jobs last month, the Labor Department said Friday.
Posted on October 3, 2024 by Dr. David Edward Marcinko MBA MEd CMP™
NEBULOUS DEFINITIONS
By Staff Reporters
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The simplest model of a market involves two things, supply and demand, and the price and quantity of the goods sold in the market are a function of both. When a natural disaster hits like Hurricane Helene, the immediate effect can be two-fold. In such situations, it is not unusual that the demand for certain products may increase. For example, if everyone is trying to leave the area, demand for gas may rise. The other effect is that supply for certain products may decrease. And, it may be more costly to transport gas in areas affected by a natural disaster, thus decreasing the supply of gas and in turn, increasing the price.
When supply decreases, the price of the good increases. And when demand increases, again the price of the good increases. So we would predict that the market price of gas, for example, would increase in areas recently affected by a hurricane. And in fact we do see this.
Price-gouging occurs when companies raise prices to unfair levels. There is no rule for what qualifies as price-gouging, but it is not an uncommon occurrence. For example in medicine, EpiPen costs is a current example of price increases that have been labeled unfair.
Note: An epinephrine auto-injector (or adrenaline auto-injector, also known by the trade mark EpiPen) is a medical device for injecting a measured dose or doses of epinephrine (adrenaline) by means of auto-injector technology. It is most often used for the treatment of anaphylaxis. The first epinephrine auto-injector was brought to market in 1983.
Posted on September 27, 2024 by Dr. David Edward Marcinko MBA MEd CMP™
BREAKING NEWS
By Staff Reporters
Tropical Storm Helene made landfall in Florida last night as a Category 4 hurricane, the strongest to ever hit the state’s Big Bend. It is a huge and powerful storm—with a wind field that could span the distance between tjhe State of Maryland/Washington, DC, and Indianapolis/Chicago—that has already caused historic flooding to some of Florida’s coastal communities.
How bad is it? The Waffle House Index, which has been used by FEMA as an indicator of a storm’s severity, closed all of its locations in Tallahassee, Florida. The Waffle House Index [WHI] is an informal metric named after the Waffle House restaurant chain, headquartered in Georgia, and used by the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) to determine the effect of a storm and the likely scale of assistance required for disaster recovery.
And, as of 8am EST, Helene has weakened to a Category 1 as it’s moved into Atlanta, Georgia. Nearly 2 million customers are without power across Florida, Georgia, and North/South Carolina. You can get real-time updates here, as we hope everyone in the region is staying safe.
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Stock market yesterday: The S&P 500 clinched a fresh new record amid GDP data and micro chip stock gains.and Stonk Stocks. Stonk, a deliberate misspelling of stock (meaning “a share of the value of a company which can be bought, sold, or traded as an investment”), was coined in a 2017 meme. The word is often used humorously on the internet to imply a vague understanding of financial transactions or poor financial decisions.
Upbeat GDP data and new stimulus measures in China were largely to thank. One of the day’s big winners was Southwest Airlines, which soared after executives announced plans to revitalize the business.
COMMENTS APPRECIATED
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*** Designated a Doody’s Core Title!
To keep up with the ever-changing field of health care, we must learn new and re-learn old terminology in order to correctly apply it to practice. By bringing together the most up-to-date abbreviations, acronyms, definitions, and terms in the health care industry, the Dictionary offers a wealth of essential information that will help you understand the ever-changing policies and practices in health insurance and managed care today.
Posted on July 5, 2024 by Dr. David Edward Marcinko MBA MEd CMP™
By Vitaliy Katsenelson CFA
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*** Today I am sharing with you an excerpt from a letter I wrote to IMA clients in the winter of 2023.
I discussed my condensed views on the stock market, economy, and our investment strategy. I think it is a good overview of where we are still today, almost a year and a half later. If you’ve read it before, skip to the end, where I share my updated thoughts on the Magnificent Seven and Nvidia.
Posted on April 18, 2024 by Dr. David Edward Marcinko MBA MEd CMP™
By Staff Reporters
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Jamie Dimon is bearish on a soft landing but bullish on AI
In his annual letter to shareholders, JPMorgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon just said that the odds interest rates return to the Fed’s target of 2% without triggering a recession are “a lot lower” than the 70%–80% chance that several markets seem to have priced in.
Dimon said JPMorgan is preparing for interest rates to possibly spike to 8% in the coming years, citing geopolitical risks, the green transition, and higher energy costs (but he’s notorious for having cautious outlooks). Artificial intelligence also topped Dimon’s list of pressing issues, and he’s “completely convinced” that AI’s impact will be “extraordinary”—maybe even as revolutionary as the printing press or the steam engine.
The current hiring market is slowing as the US economy added just 150,000 jobs last month. The employment gains reported by the Labor Department yesterday fell short of expectations and were almost half of the 297,000 jobs created in September. Still, there’s no need to hit the economic panic button. Though the unemployment rate ticked up slightly, to 3.9% in October, it’s been below 4% since late 2021, the longest sub-4% stretch in over 50 years. But the hiring slowdown may be a sign that the US economy is gently showing.
Now, the six-week United Auto Workers strike against the Big Three Detroit carmakers was the primary culprit in the automotive manufacturing sector shedding 33,000 people from payroll. On the flip side, healthcare, government, and construction were the top job creators, adding 58k, 51k, and 23k positions, respectively.
And, the jobs numbers were in the sweet spot for investors. Stocks posted their biggest weekly gain this year. And that’s because investors view the reduced appetite for new hires as a sign the Fed is succeeding at cooling the economy in its fight against inflation. This jobs report makes it even more likely that the FOMC will put the parking brake on its interest rate hikes, and some traders are betting that the central bank might even lower rates next year.
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And, the victims of Sam Bankman-Fried‘s financial crimes could be set to recoup almost all of the $16 billion Solana that was lost when his crypto exchange FTX collapsed – unless the IRS steps in to seize the funds instead.
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Finally, stocks closed out their best week all year after the “Goldilocks” October jobs report could put the Fed’s interest rate hikes on ice. And, Paramount pictures posted double-digit gains for the second straight session.
In the last 20 months, the US Federal Reserve has jacked up interest rates to a 22-year high to tame soaring inflation. And inflation has come down to about half of its June 2022 peak. But the economy is still strong.
The Fed’s rate-hiking jamboree was expected to slow hiring, spending, and broader economic growth as unfortunate side effects of popping the inflation balloon. However, a series of recent reports shows that the US economy is still roaring in the ’20s:
Jobs: Employers smashed expectations by adding 336,000 jobs in September, and the unemployment rate remains at a low level of 3.8%.
Spending: Retail sales also blew past estimates in September, a sign that American consumers remain the undisputed shopping world champs. This probably helped: Americans’ household wealth surged 37% from 2019 to 2022, according to Fed data released on Wednesday. That’s more than double the second-highest increase on record.
Economy: After the strong retail sales numbers came out this week, Morgan Stanley raised its Q3 economic growth outlook to 4.9% from 4.5%. Context: One year ago this week, Bloomberg economists predicted a 100% chance of a recession…within a year.
Markets: The Dow is on a run for the ages, extending its winning streak to 12 days. But, Spotify revealing widening losses due to its failed podcasting investments and projected lower revenues. And its stock plunge came despite adding a record number of new subscribers.
Economy: All eyes are on the FOMC today: With another rate hike pretty much a lock, investors will seek Jerome Powell’s comments to see whether the Fed is considering any more increases.
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Alphabet, which declared a “code red” for Google Search late last year as rivals like ChatGPT and Microsoft’s AI-equipped Bing came on the scene, is chugging right along. Google’s search advertising sales grew to a better-than-expected $42.6 billion. And, most people haven’t made ChatGPT their default search engine.
Microsoft beat expectations on its top- and bottom lines and told investors that it had spent, and would continue spending, gobs of money to build out AI infrastructure.
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Snap. The social media platform just rolled out an AI chatbot, My AI, and boasted that 150+ million users have sent over 10 billion messages to it. But, still fighting against the likes of TikTok for ad spending in a sluggish market, Snap’s sales dropped for the second straight quarter, causing shares to plummet 19% after-hours.
Conference calls: Meta reports earnings today, and Amazon and Apple report next week.
Posted on May 3, 2023 by Dr. David Edward Marcinko MBA MEd CMP™
By Staff Reporters
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Markets: The relative calm after JPMorgan scooped up First Republic Bank lasted all of…one day. Two other West Coast lenders, PacificWest and Western Alliance, both tumbled in a sign investors still smell blood among regional banks.
Economy: Happy Fed Decision Day to all who celebrate. With inflation sizzling at still-uncomfortably high levels, Chair Jerome Powell is expected to announce the central bank’s 10th straight interest rate hike this afternoon. But many economists expect this rate increase could be the grand finale.
Layoffs jump to the highest level since late 2020. The number of job openings in the US dropped to a nearly two-year low in March, and layoffs increased to their highest point since December 2020, the Labor Department revealed yesterday. In this “bad news is good news” economic environment, the Fed will be pleased that the boiling-hot labor market is cooling off. It means less pressure on inflation and more justification to pause hiking rates.
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