RECESSION: A Heightened Risk in 2026?

By Dr. David Edward Marcinko MBA MEd

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SPONSOR: http://www.MarcinkoAssociates.com

The U.S. faces a heightened risk of recession in 2026, with economic indicators, expert forecasts, and global instability contributing to widespread concern. While some analysts remain cautiously optimistic, the probability of a downturn is significant.

The potential for a U.S. recession in 2026 is a topic of growing concern among economists, policymakers, and investors. According to UBS, the probability of a recession has surged to 93% based on hard data analysis, including employment trends, industrial production, and credit market signals. This alarming figure reflects a convergence of economic stressors that could culminate in a downturn by the end of 2026.

One of the most prominent warning signs is the inverted yield curve, a historically reliable predictor of recessions. When short-term interest rates exceed long-term rates, it suggests that investors expect weaker growth ahead. This inversion, coupled with elevated federal debt and persistent inflationary pressures, has led many analysts to forecast a slowdown in consumer spending and business investment.

Despite these concerns, some sectors—particularly artificial intelligence (AI)—are providing temporary buoyancy. The AI infrastructure boom has fueled GDP growth and market optimism, with global AI investment projected to reach $500 billion by 2026.

However, experts warn that this surge may be masking underlying economic fragility. If AI-driven investment slows, the economy could quickly lose momentum, revealing vulnerabilities in other sectors such as manufacturing and retail.

Global factors also play a critical role. Trade tensions, geopolitical instability, and fluctuating oil prices have created an unpredictable environment. The lingering effects of tariff pass-throughs and policy uncertainty are expected to intensify in 2026, further straining the U.S. economy. Additionally, speculative forecasts—like those from mystic Baba Vanga—have captured public imagination by predicting a “cash crush” that could disrupt both virtual and physical currency systems, although such claims lack empirical support. Not all forecasts are dire. Oxford Economics suggests that while growth will moderate, the U.S. may avoid a full-blown recession thanks to continued investment incentives and robust AI-related spending. Their above-consensus GDP forecast hinges on the assumption that business confidence remains stable and that fiscal policy supports non-AI sectors effectively.

Nevertheless, the risks are real and multifaceted. The Polymarket prediction platform currently estimates a 43% chance of a U.S. recession by the end of 2026, based on criteria such as two consecutive quarters of negative GDP growth or an official declaration by the National Bureau of Economic Research.

In conclusion, while the U.S. economy may continue to navigate “choppy waters,” the potential for a recession in 2026 is substantial. Policymakers must remain vigilant, balancing stimulus with fiscal discipline, and addressing structural weaknesses before temporary growth drivers fade.

The coming year will be pivotal in determining whether the U.S. can steer clear of recession or succumb to the mounting pressures.

COMMENTS APPRECIATED

EDUCATION: Books

SPEAKING: Dr. Marcinko will be speaking and lecturing, signing and opining, teaching and preaching, storming and performing at many locations throughout the USA this year! His tour of witty and serious pontifications may be scheduled on a planned or ad-hoc basis; for public or private meetings and gatherings; formally, informally, or over lunch or dinner. All medical societies, financial advisory firms or Broker-Dealers are encouraged to submit an RFP for speaking engagements: CONTACT: Ann Miller RN MHA at MarcinkoAdvisors@outlook.com -OR- http://www.MarcinkoAssociates.com

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MONEY: Macro-Economic Velocity

By Dr. David Edward Marcinko MBA MEd

BASIC DEFINITIONS

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The velocity of money is a fundamental concept in macroeconomics that measures how quickly money circulates through the economy. It reflects the frequency with which a unit of currency is used to purchase goods and services within a given time period. This metric is crucial for understanding economic activity, inflation, and the effectiveness of monetary policy.

At its core, the velocity of money is calculated using the formula:

Velocity = GDPMoney Supply\text{Velocity} = \frac{\text{GDP}}{\text{Money Supply}}

This equation shows how many times money turns over in the economy to support a given level of economic output. For example, if the GDP is $20 trillion and the money supply (say, M2) is $10 trillion, the velocity is 2—meaning each dollar is used twice in a year to purchase goods and services.

There are different measures of money supply used in this calculation, most commonly M1 and M2. M1 includes the most liquid forms of money, such as cash and checking deposits, while M2 includes M1 plus savings accounts and other near-money assets. The choice of which measure to use depends on the context and the specific economic analysis being conducted.

The velocity of money is influenced by several factors:

  • Consumer and business confidence: When people feel optimistic about the economy, they are more likely to spend rather than save, increasing velocity.
  • Interest rates: Higher interest rates can encourage saving and reduce spending, lowering velocity. Conversely, lower rates can stimulate borrowing and spending.
  • Inflation expectations: If people expect prices to rise, they may spend more quickly, increasing velocity.
  • Technological and structural changes: Innovations in digital payments and shifts in consumer behavior can also affect how quickly money moves.

Historically, the velocity of money has fluctuated with economic cycles. During periods of economic expansion, velocity tends to rise as spending increases. In contrast, during recessions or periods of uncertainty, velocity often falls as consumers and businesses hold onto cash. For instance, during the 2008 financial crisis and the early stages of the COVID-19 pandemic, velocity dropped sharply due to reduced consumer spending and increased saving.

In recent years, the U.S. has experienced persistently low velocity, even amid significant increases in the money supply. This phenomenon has puzzled economists and raised questions about the effectiveness of monetary policy. Despite aggressive stimulus measures, much of the new money has remained in savings or financial markets rather than circulating through the real economy.

Understanding the velocity of money is essential for policymakers. A low velocity may signal weak demand and justify expansionary fiscal or monetary policies. Conversely, a high velocity could indicate overheating and the need for tightening measures to prevent inflation.

In conclusion, the velocity of money is a dynamic indicator of economic vitality. It helps economists and central banks assess the flow of money, the strength of demand, and the potential for inflation.

While often overlooked by the public, it plays a vital role in shaping economic policy and understanding the broader health of the economy.

COMMENTS APPRECIATED

EDUCATION: Books

SPEAKING: Dr. Marcinko will be speaking and lecturing, signing and opining, teaching and preaching, storming and performing at many locations throughout the USA this year! His tour of witty and serious pontifications may be scheduled on a planned or ad-hoc basis; for public or private meetings and gatherings; formally, informally, or over lunch or dinner. All medical societies, financial advisory firms or Broker-Dealers are encouraged to submit an RFP for speaking engagements: CONTACT: Ann Miller RN MHA at MarcinkoAdvisors@outlook.com -OR- http://www.MarcinkoAssociates.com

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Say’s Law in Classical Economics

By Dr. David Edward Marcinko MBA MEd

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Say’s Law, named after the French economist Jean‑Baptiste Say, is a foundational idea in classical economics. Often summarized as “supply creates its own demand,” the law suggests that the act of producing goods and services inherently generates the income necessary to purchase them. This principle shaped economic thought throughout the 19th century and continues to influence debates about markets, government intervention, and the causes of economic crises.

Origins and Meaning Jean‑Baptiste Say introduced his law in the early 1800s in his Treatise on Political Economy. He argued that production is the source of demand: when producers create goods, they pay wages, rents, and profits, which in turn become purchasing power. In this view, general overproduction is impossible because every supply of goods corresponds to an equivalent demand. If imbalances occur, they are temporary and limited to specific sectors, not the economy as a whole.

Core Principles Say’s Law rests on several assumptions:

  • Markets are self‑correcting: Any surplus in one area leads to adjustments in prices and production.
  • Money is neutral: It serves only as a medium of exchange, not as a driver of demand.
  • Production drives prosperity: Economic growth depends on increasing output, not stimulating consumption.
  • No long‑term unemployment: Since supply creates demand, workers displaced in one industry will eventually find employment elsewhere.

These ideas aligned with classical economists’ belief in minimal government intervention and the efficiency of free markets.

Influence on Classical Economics Say’s Law became a cornerstone of classical economics, reinforcing the belief that recessions or depressions were temporary and self‑correcting. Economists like David Ricardo and John Stuart Mill adopted versions of the law, using it to argue against policies aimed at stimulating demand. The law supported laissez‑faire approaches, suggesting that governments should avoid interfering with markets, as production itself would ensure economic balance.

Criticism and Keynesian Revolution Say’s Law faced its greatest challenge during the Great Depression of the 1930s. Widespread unemployment and idle factories contradicted the idea that supply automatically generates demand. John Maynard Keynes famously rejected Say’s Law in his General Theory of Employment, Interest, and Money (1936). Keynes argued that demand, not supply, drives economic activity. He showed that insufficient aggregate demand could lead to prolonged recessions, requiring government intervention through fiscal and monetary policies.

Keynes’s critique marked a turning point in economics. While Say’s Law emphasized production, Keynesian economics highlighted consumption and demand management. This shift reshaped economic policy, leading to active government roles in stabilizing economies.

Modern Perspectives Today, Say’s Law is not accepted in its original form, but elements of it remain relevant. Supply‑side economists, for example, argue that policies encouraging production—such as tax cuts and deregulation—can stimulate growth. In contrast, Keynesians stress the importance of demand management. The debate reflects a broader tension in economics: whether prosperity depends more on producing goods or ensuring people have the means and willingness to buy them.

Conclusion: Say’s Law was a bold attempt to explain the self‑sustaining nature of markets. While its claim that “supply creates its own demand” proved too simplistic in the face of modern economic realities, it remains a vital part of the history of economic thought. The controversy surrounding Say’s Law highlights the evolving nature of economics, where theories are tested against real‑world crises and adapted to new circumstances. Even today, discussions of supply‑side versus demand‑side policies echo the enduring influence of Say’s original insight.

COMMENTS APPRECIATED

EDUCATION: Books

SPEAKING: Dr. Marcinko will be speaking and lecturing, signing and opining, teaching and preaching, storming and performing at many locations throughout the USA this year! His tour of witty and serious pontifications may be scheduled on a planned or ad-hoc basis; for public or private meetings and gatherings; formally, informally, or over lunch or dinner. All medical societies, financial advisory firms or Broker-Dealers are encouraged to submit an RFP for speaking engagements: CONTACT: Ann Miller RN MHA at MarcinkoAdvisors@outlook.com -OR- http://www.MarcinkoAssociates.com

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RICARDIAN ECONOMICS: Can it Save Medicine?

By Dr. David Edward Marcinko MBA MEd

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Ricardian economics, rooted in the theories of 19th-century economist David Ricardo, emphasizes comparative advantage, free trade, and the neutrality of government debt—most notably through the concept of Ricardian equivalence. While these ideas have shaped macroeconomic thought, their relevance to medicine and healthcare policy is less direct. Still, exploring Ricardian principles offers a provocative lens through which to examine the fiscal sustainability and efficiency of modern healthcare systems.

At the heart of Ricardian equivalence is the idea that consumers are forward-looking and internalize government budget constraints. If a government finances healthcare through debt rather than taxes, rational agents will anticipate future tax burdens and adjust their behavior accordingly. In theory, this undermines the effectiveness of deficit-financed healthcare spending as a stimulus. Applied to medicine, this suggests that long-term fiscal responsibility is crucial: expanding healthcare access through borrowing may not yield the intended economic or health benefits if citizens expect future costs to rise.

This insight could inform debates on healthcare reform, especially in countries grappling with ballooning medical expenditures. Ricardian economics warns against short-term fixes that ignore long-term fiscal implications. For example, expanding public insurance programs without sustainable funding mechanisms could lead to intergenerational inequities and economic distortions. Policymakers might instead focus on reforms that align incentives, reduce waste, and promote cost-effective care—principles that resonate with Ricardo’s emphasis on efficiency and comparative advantage.

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However, Ricardian economics offers limited guidance on the unique moral and practical dimensions of medicine. Healthcare is not a typical market good. Patients often lack the information or autonomy to make rational choices, especially in emergencies. Moreover, the sector is rife with externalities: one person’s vaccination benefits the broader community, and untreated illness can strain public resources. These complexities challenge the assumption of rational, forward-looking behavior central to Ricardian equivalence.

Additionally, Ricardo’s theory of comparative advantage—where nations benefit by specializing in goods they produce most efficiently—has implications for global health. It supports international collaboration in pharmaceutical production, medical research, and telemedicine. Yet, over-reliance on global supply chains can expose vulnerabilities, as seen during the COVID-19 pandemic when countries faced shortages of critical medical supplies.

In conclusion, Ricardian economics provides valuable fiscal insights that can inform healthcare policy, particularly regarding debt sustainability and efficient resource allocation. Its emphasis on long-term planning and comparative advantage can guide reforms that make medicine more resilient and cost-effective. However, the theory’s assumptions about rational behavior and market dynamics limit its applicability to the nuanced realities of healthcare. Medicine requires not just economic efficiency but ethical considerations, equity, and compassion—areas where Ricardian economics falls short. Thus, while it can contribute to the conversation, it cannot “save” medicine alone.

COMMENTS APPRECIATED

EDUCATION: Books

SPEAKING: Dr. Marcinko will be speaking and lecturing, signing and opining, teaching and preaching, storming and performing at many locations throughout the USA this year! His tour of witty and serious pontifications may be scheduled on a planned or ad-hoc basis; for public or private meetings and gatherings; formally, informally, or over lunch or dinner. All medical societies, financial advisory firms or Broker-Dealers are encouraged to submit an RFP for speaking engagements: CONTACT: Ann Miller RN MHA at MarcinkoAdvisors@outlook.com 

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Understanding the Scitovsky Paradox in Welfare Economics

By Staff Reporters

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According to colleague Dan Ariely PhD, the Scitovsky Paradox and using the Kaldor–Hicks criterion, allocation A may be more efficient than allocation B, while at the same time B is more efficient than A.

Moreover, the Scitovsky paradox in welfare economics which is resolved by stating that there is no increase in social welfare by a return to the original part of the losers. It is named after the Hungarian born American economist, Tibor Scitovsky. According to Scitovsky, ther Kaldor-Hicks criterion involves contradictory and inconsistent results.

What Scitovsky demonstrated was it is possible that if an allocation A is deemed superior to another allocation B by the Kaldor compensation criteria, then by a subsequent set of moves by the same criteria, we can prove that B is also superior to A.

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The Sraffa–Hayek Economic Debate

By Dr. David Edward Marcinko MBA MEd

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The Sraffa–Hayek debate stands as a pivotal moment in the history of economic thought, highlighting deep philosophical and methodological differences between two influential schools: the Austrian School, represented by Friedrich Hayek, and the neo-Ricardian or Cambridge School, represented by Piero Sraffa. Taking place primarily in the 1930s, this intellectual exchange centered on the nature of capital, the role of equilibrium, and the validity of marginalist theory.

Friedrich Hayek, a staunch advocate of Austrian economics, had developed a theory of business cycles rooted in the mis allocation of capital due to artificially low interest rates. In his framework, interest rates serve as signals that coordinate inter temporal production decisions. When central banks distort these signals, they cause over investment in capital-intensive industries, leading to unsustainable booms followed by inevitable busts. Hayek’s theory was grounded in a time-structured view of capital, emphasizing the importance of temporal coordination in production.

Piero Sraffa, a Cambridge economist and close associate of John Maynard Keynes, challenged Hayek’s assumptions in a 1932 review of Hayek’s book Prices and Production. Sraffa’s critique was both technical and philosophical. He questioned the coherence of Hayek’s notion of a uniform natural rate of interest in a complex economy with heterogeneous capital goods. Sraffa argued that in such an economy, there could be multiple natural rates of interest, making it impossible to define a single rate that equilibrates savings and investment across all sectors.

Moreover, Sraffa criticized the Austrian reliance on equilibrium analysis in a world characterized by uncertainty and institutional complexity. He contended that Hayek’s model was overly abstract and detached from real-world dynamics. This critique foreshadowed Sraffa’s later work, Production of Commodities by Means of Commodities (1960), which laid the foundation for the neo-Ricardian critique of marginalist economics. In that work, Sraffa demonstrated that prices and distribution could be determined without recourse to subjective utility or marginal productivity, challenging the core of neoclassical theory.

The debate had far-reaching implications. For the Austrian School, it exposed vulnerabilities in their capital theory and prompted refinements in their approach to intertemporal coordination. For the broader economics profession, Sraffa’s critique contributed to a growing skepticism about the internal consistency of marginalist value theory, influencing the Cambridge capital controversies of the 1950s and 1960s.

While the Sraffa–Hayek debate did not produce a definitive victor, it underscored the importance of foundational assumptions in economic modeling. It also highlighted the tension between abstract theoretical elegance and empirical relevance—a tension that continues to shape economic discourse today. Ultimately, the debate enriched the intellectual landscape by forcing economists to confront the limitations of their models and to grapple with the complex realities of capital, time, and uncertainty.

COMMENTS APPRECIATED

EDUCATION: Books

SPEAKING: Dr. Marcinko will be speaking and lecturing, signing and opining, teaching and preaching, storming and performing at many locations throughout the USA this year! His tour of witty and serious pontifications may be scheduled on a planned or ad-hoc basis; for public or private meetings and gatherings; formally, informally, or over lunch or dinner. All medical societies, financial advisory firms or Broker-Dealers are encouraged to submit an RFP for speaking engagements: CONTACT: Ann Miller RN MHA at MarcinkoAdvisors@outlook.com 

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K-SHAPED ECONOMY: An Uneven and Divided World

By Dr. David Edward Marcinko MBA MEd

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The term “K-shaped economy” emerged during the COVID-19 pandemic to describe a recovery marked by stark divergence—where some sectors and social groups rebound rapidly while others continue to decline. Unlike traditional V-shaped or U-shaped recoveries, which imply uniform economic improvement, the K-shaped model reflects a split trajectory: the upward arm of the “K” represents those who thrive, while the downward arm captures those left behind. This phenomenon has profound implications for economic policy, social equity, and long-term stability.

At the heart of the K-shaped economy is inequality. High-income individuals, white-collar professionals, and large corporations often benefit from technological advances, remote work flexibility, and access to capital. For example, tech giants like Apple, Microsoft, and Alphabet saw record profits during the pandemic, fueled by digital transformation and cloud services. Meanwhile, lower-income workers—especially in hospitality, retail, and service industries—faced job losses, reduced hours, and limited access to healthcare or financial safety nets. This divergence widened existing income and wealth gaps, exacerbating social tensions.

Sectoral performance also illustrates the K-shaped divide. Industries such as e-commerce, software, and logistics surged, while travel, entertainment, and small businesses struggled. The rise of automation and artificial intelligence further tilted the scales, favoring companies that could invest in innovation while displacing low-skilled labor. In education, students from affluent families adapted to online learning with ease, while those from disadvantaged backgrounds faced digital barriers and learning loss. These disparities underscore how economic recovery is not just uneven—it’s structurally imbalanced.

Geography plays a role too. Urban centers with diversified economies and strong tech sectors rebounded faster than rural or manufacturing-heavy regions. Housing markets in affluent areas soared, driven by low interest rates and remote work migration, while renters and first-time buyers faced affordability crises. Even within cities, neighborhoods with better infrastructure and public services recovered more quickly, deepening the urban-suburban divide.

Policymakers face a daunting challenge in addressing the K-shaped recovery. Traditional stimulus measures may not reach the most vulnerable populations without targeted interventions. Expanding access to education, healthcare, and digital infrastructure is essential to leveling the playing field. Progressive taxation, wage support, and small business aid can help bridge the gap, but require political will and fiscal discipline. Central banks must balance inflation control with inclusive growth, avoiding policies that disproportionately benefit asset holders.

The long-term consequences of a K-shaped economy are significant. Persistent inequality can erode trust in institutions, fuel populism, and hinder social mobility. Economic growth may slow if large segments of the population remain underemployed or financially insecure. To build a resilient and inclusive future, governments, businesses, and civil society must collaborate to ensure that recovery lifts all boats—not just the yachts.

COMMENTS APPRECIATED

EDUCATION: Books

SPEAKING: Dr. Marcinko will be speaking and lecturing, signing and opining, teaching and preaching, storming and performing at many locations throughout the USA this year! His tour of witty and serious pontifications may be scheduled on a planned or ad-hoc basis; for public or private meetings and gatherings; formally, informally, or over lunch or dinner. All medical societies, financial advisory firms or Broker-Dealers are encouraged to submit an RFP for speaking engagements: CONTACT: Ann Miller RN MHA at MarcinkoAdvisors@outlook.com -OR- http://www.MarcinkoAssociates.com

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Understanding the Edgeworth Paradox in Economics

By Staff Reporters

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Irish economist Frances Edgeworth put forward the Edgeworth Paradox in his paper “The Pure Theory of Monopoly”, published in 1897.

It describes a situation in which two players cannot reach a state of equilibrium with pure strategies, i.e. each charging a stable price. A fact of the Edgeworth Paradox is that in some cases, even if the direct price impact is negative and exceeds the conditions, an increase in cost proportional to the quantity of an item provided may cause a decrease in all optimal prices. Due to the limited production capacity of enterprises in reality, if only one enterprise’s total production capacity can be supplied cannot meet social demand, another enterprise can charge a price that exceeds the marginal cost for the residual social need.

And so, according to colleague Dan Ariely PhD, the Edgeworth Paradox suggests that with capacity constraints, there may not be an equilibrium.

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AUSTRIAN ECONOMICS: Can it Save Healthcare?

By Dr. David Edward Marcinko MBA MEd

SPONSOR: http://www.MarcinkoAssociates.com

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The global healthcare sector faces mounting challenges: rising costs, inefficiencies, limited access, and bureaucratic entanglements. In response, some economists and policymakers have turned to Austrian Economics for answers. Rooted in the works of Ludwig von Mises and Friedrich Hayek, Austrian Economics emphasizes individual choice, market-driven solutions, and skepticism toward centralized planning. But can this school of thought truly “save” healthcare?

At its core, Austrian Economics champions the idea that decentralized decision-making and free-market mechanisms lead to more efficient and responsive systems. In healthcare, this would mean reducing government control and allowing competition to drive innovation, lower costs, and improve quality. Proponents argue that when patients act as consumers and providers compete for their business, the system becomes more accountable and efficient. For example, direct primary care models—where patients pay physicians directly without insurance intermediaries—reflect Austrian principles and have shown promise in improving care and reducing administrative overhead.

Austrian theorists also critique the price distortions caused by third-party payers like insurance companies and government programs. According to them, when consumers are insulated from the true cost of care, demand becomes artificially inflated, leading to overutilization and waste. By restoring price signals—where patients see and respond to the actual cost of services—Austrian economists believe the market can better allocate resources and curb unnecessary spending.

However, critics argue that healthcare is not a typical market. Patients often lack the information, time, or capacity to make rational choices, especially in emergencies. Moreover, healthcare involves significant externalities and moral considerations that pure market logic may overlook. For instance, should access to life-saving treatment depend solely on one’s ability to pay? Austrian Economics offers little guidance on equity or universal access, which are central concerns in modern healthcare debates.

Austria itself provides an interesting case study. Despite the name, Austrian Economics is not the guiding philosophy behind Austria’s healthcare system. Instead, Austria operates a social insurance model with near-universal coverage, funded through mandatory contributions and managed by a mix of public and private actors. While recent reforms have aimed to streamline administration and reduce fragmentation he system remains largely collectivist—contrary to Austrian ideals.

In conclusion, Austrian Economics offers valuable insights into the inefficiencies of centralized healthcare systems and the potential benefits of market-based reforms. Its emphasis on individual choice, price transparency, and entrepreneurial innovation can inspire meaningful improvements. However, its limitations in addressing equity, access, and the unique nature of healthcare suggest that it cannot “save” the system on its own. A hybrid approach—blending market mechanisms with safeguards for universal access—may offer a more balanced path forward.

COMMENTS APPRECIATED

EDUCATION: Books

SPEAKING: Dr. Marcinko will be speaking and lecturing, signing and opining, teaching and preaching, storming and performing at many locations throughout the USA this year! His tour of witty and serious pontifications may be scheduled on a planned or ad-hoc basis; for public or private meetings and gatherings; formally, informally, or over lunch or dinner. All medical societies, financial advisory firms or Broker-Dealers are encouraged to submit an RFP for speaking engagements: CONTACT: Ann Miller RN MHA at MarcinkoAdvisors@outlook.com 

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Understanding the Boomerang Effect in Psychology and Medicine

DEFINITION

By Staff Reporters

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Classic Definition: The Boomerang[ing] paradox is a feedback loop or cycle where events come back positively or negatively. It is an interconnection between people that looks like an ecosystem.

Modern Circumstance: When our thoughts and words energetically go out into the world, it has the same effect as the boomerang. It will go all the way out and come back around. That part of the creation model is our thinking and speaking. We’re unconscious and co-creating our reality. The Boomerang effect is everywhere: politics, business, relationships, economics, environment, marketing, psychology and healthcare, etc.

PSYCHOLOGY

Paradox Example: Research has found that teaching people and patients about psychological biases can help counteract biased behavior. On the other hand, due to the innate need for preservation of a positive self-image, it is likely that teaching people about biases they hold, may cause a boomerang paradoxical effect in cases where being associated with a specific bias implies negative social connotations

MEDICINE

Paradox Example: Recent examples of a boomerang paradoxical drug effects is with osteoporosis medications such as Actonel, Boniva and Fosamax. These all belong to a class of drugs called bisphosphonates. They are supposed to strengthen bones, but some doctors report that long-term use of these drugs may actually pose a risk of certain unusual fractures.

ECONOMICS

Paradox Example: A characteristic of advanced economies like Australia is continual growth in household income and plunging costs of electric appliances, resulting in rapid growth in peak demand. The power grid in turn requires substantial incremental generating and network capacity, which is utilized momentarily at best. The result is the Boomerang Paradox, in which the nation’s rising wealth has created the pre-conditions for fuel poverty.

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ECONOMICS: Micro V. Micro Differences

By Dr. David Edward Marcinko MBA MEd

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Understanding the Differences Between Microeconomics and Macroeconomics

Economics is the study of how societies allocate scarce resources to meet the needs and wants of individuals. It is broadly divided into two main branches: microeconomics and macroeconomics. While both aim to understand economic behavior and decision-making, they differ significantly in scope, focus, and application. Understanding these differences is essential for grasping how economies function at both individual and national levels.

2025 Nobel: https://medicalexecutivepost.com/2025/10/14/nobel-prize-economics-2025/

Microeconomics: The Study of Individual Units

Microeconomics focuses on the behavior of individual economic agents—such as consumers, firms, and households—and how they make decisions regarding resource allocation. It examines how these entities interact in specific markets, how prices are determined, and how supply and demand influence economic outcomes.

Key concepts in microeconomics include:

  • Demand and Supply: Microeconomics analyzes how the quantity of goods demanded by consumers and the quantity supplied by producers interact to determine market prices.
  • Elasticity: This measures how responsive demand or supply is to changes in price or income.
  • Consumer Behavior: Microeconomics studies how individuals make choices based on preferences, budget constraints, and utility maximization.
  • Production and Costs: It explores how firms decide on the optimal level of output and the costs associated with production.
  • Market Structures: Microeconomics categorizes markets into perfect competition, monopolistic competition, oligopoly, and monopoly, each with distinct characteristics and implications for pricing and output.

Microeconomic analysis is crucial for understanding how specific sectors operate, how businesses strategize, and how consumers respond to changes in prices or income. For example, a company might use microeconomic principles to determine the price point that maximizes profit or to assess the impact of a new competitor entering the market.

Macroeconomics: The Study of the Economy as a Whole

Macroeconomics, on the other hand, deals with the performance, structure, and behavior of an entire economy. It looks at aggregate indicators and phenomena, such as national income, unemployment, inflation, and economic growth. Macroeconomics seeks to understand how the economy functions at a broad level and how government policies can influence economic outcomes.

Key areas of macroeconomics include:

  • Gross Domestic Product (GDP): This measures the total value of goods and services produced within a country and serves as a key indicator of economic health.
  • Unemployment: Macroeconomics examines the causes and consequences of unemployment and the effectiveness of policies aimed at reducing it.
  • Inflation and Deflation: It studies changes in the general price level and their impact on purchasing power and economic stability.
  • Fiscal and Monetary Policy: Macroeconomics evaluates how government spending, taxation, and central bank actions influence economic activity.
  • International Trade and Finance: It explores exchange rates, trade balances, and the impact of globalization on national economies.

Macroeconomic analysis is essential for policymakers, economists, and financial institutions. For instance, central banks use macroeconomic data to set interest rates, while governments design fiscal policies to stimulate growth or curb inflation.

Interdependence Between Micro and Macro

Despite their differences, microeconomics and macroeconomics are deeply interconnected. Micro-level decisions collectively shape macroeconomic outcomes. For example, widespread consumer spending boosts aggregate demand, influencing GDP and employment levels. Conversely, macroeconomic conditions—such as inflation or interest rates—affect individual behavior. A rise in interest rates may discourage borrowing and reduce consumer spending, impacting businesses at the micro level.

Economists often use insights from both branches to develop comprehensive models and forecasts. For instance, understanding consumer behavior (micro) helps predict changes in aggregate consumption (macro), which in turn informs policy decisions.

Austrian Economics: https://medicalexecutivepost.com/2025/10/11/keynesian-versus-austrian-economics/

Conclusion

Microeconomics and macroeconomics offer distinct yet complementary perspectives on economic activity. Microeconomics provides a granular view of individual decision-making and market dynamics, while macroeconomics offers a broader understanding of national and global economic trends. Together, they form the foundation of economic theory and practice, guiding businesses, governments, and individuals in making informed decisions.

A well-rounded grasp of both branches is essential for anyone seeking to understand how economies function and evolve in an increasingly complex world.

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EDUCATION: Books

SPEAKING: Dr. Marcinko will be speaking and lecturing, signing and opining, teaching and preaching, storming and performing at many locations throughout the USA this year! His tour of witty and serious pontifications may be scheduled on a planned or ad-hoc basis; for public or private meetings and gatherings; formally, informally, or over lunch or dinner. All medical societies, financial advisory firms or Broker-Dealers are encouraged to submit an RFP for speaking engagements: CONTACT: Ann Miller RN MHA at MarcinkoAdvisors@outlook.com -OR- http://www.MarcinkoAssociates.com

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NOBEL PRIZE: Economics 2025

By Staff Reporters

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STOCKHOLM (AP) — Three researchers who probed the process of business innovation won the Nobel memorial prize in economics Monday for explaining how new products and inventions promote economic growth and human welfare, even as they leave older companies in the dust.

Their work was credited with helping economists better understand how ideas and technology succeed by disrupting established ways — a process as old as steam locomotives replacing horse-drawn wagons and as contemporary as e-commerce shuttering shopping malls.

The award was shared by Dutch-born Joel Mokyr, 79, who is at Northwestern University; Philippe Aghion, 69, who works at the Collège de France and the London School of Economics; and Canadian-born Peter Howitt, 79, who is at Brown University.

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Austrian vs Keynesian Economics Explained

Austrian Economics vs. Keynesian Economics in One Simple Chart

Courtesy of 

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Conclusion

Your thoughts and comments on this ME-P are appreciated. Feel free to review our top-left column, and top-right sidebar materials, links, URLs and related websites, too. Then, subscribe to the ME-P. It is fast, free and secure.

Speaker: If you need a moderator or speaker for an upcoming event, Dr. David E. Marcinko; MBA – Publisher-in-Chief of the Medical Executive-Post – is available for seminar or speaking engagements.

OUR OTHER PRINT BOOKS AND RELATED INFORMATION SOURCES:

Risk Management, Liability Insurance, and Asset Protection Strategies for Doctors and Advisors: Best Practices from Leading Consultants and Certified Medical Planners™8Comprehensive Financial Planning Strategies for Doctors and Advisors: Best Practices from Leading Consultants and Certified Medical Planners™

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Understanding Behavioral Finance Paradoxes

By Staff Reporters

SPONSOR: http://www.MarcinkoAssociates.com

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 “THE INVESTOR’S CHIEF problem—even his worst enemy—is likely to be himself.” So wrote Benjamin Graham, the father of modern investment analysis.

With these words, written in 1949, Graham acknowledged the reality that investors are human. Though he had written an 800 page book on techniques to analyze stocks and bonds, Graham understood that investing is as much about human psychology as it is about numerical analysis.

In the decades since Graham’s passing, an entire field has emerged at the intersection of psychology and finance. Known as behavioral finance, its pioneers include Daniel Kahneman, Amos Tversky and Richard Thaler. Together, they and their peers have identified countless human foibles that interfere with our ability to make good financial decisions. These include hindsight bias, recency bias and overconfidence, among others. On my bookshelf, I have at least as many volumes on behavioral finance as I do on pure financial analysis, so I certainly put stock in these ideas.

At the same time, I think we’re being too hard on ourselves when we lay all of these biases at our feet. We shouldn’t conclude that we’re deficient because we’re so susceptible to biases. Rather, the problem is that finance isn’t a scientific field like math or physics. At best, it’s like chaos theory. Yes, there is some underlying logic, but it’s usually so hard to observe and understand that it might as well be random. The world of personal finance is bedeviled by paradoxes, so no individual—no matter how rational—can always make optimal decisions.

As we plan for our financial future, I think it’s helpful to be cognizant of these paradoxes. While there’s nothing we can do to control or change them, there is great value in being aware of them, so we can approach them with the right tools and the right mindset.

Here are just seven of the paradoxes that can bedevil financial decision-making:

  1. There’s the paradox that all of the greatest fortunes—Carnegie, Rockefeller, Buffett, Gates—have been made by owning just one stock. And yet the best advice for individual investors is to do the opposite: to own broadly diversified index funds.
  2. There’s the paradox that the stock market may appear overvalued and yet it could become even more overvalued before it eventually declines. And when it does decline, it may be to a level that is even higher than where it is today.
  3. There’s the paradox that we make plans based on our understanding of the rules—and yet Congress can change the rules on us at any time, as it did just last year.
  4. There’s the paradox that we base our plans on historical averages—average stock market returns, average interest rates, average inflation rates and so on—and yet we only lead one life, so none of us will experience the average.
  5. There’s the paradox that we continue to be attracted to the prestige of high-cost colleges, even though a rational analysis that looks at return on investment tells us that lower-cost state schools are usually the better bet.
  6. There’s the paradox that early retirement seems so appealing—and has even turned into a movement—and yet the reality of early retirement suggests that we might be better off staying at our desks.
  7. There’s the paradox that retirees’ worst fear is outliving their money and yet few choose the financial product that is purpose-built to solve that problem: the single-premium immediate annuity.

How should you respond to these paradoxes? As you plan for your financial future, embrace the concept of “loosely held views.”

In other words, make financial plans, but continuously update your views, question your assumptions and rethink your priorities.

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INVESTING TRANSFORMATION: Artificial Intelligence

By Co-Pilot and A. I.

SPONSOR: http://www.CertifiedMedicalPlanner.org

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Artificial Intelligence and Investing: A Transformative Partnership

Artificial Intelligence (AI) is revolutionizing the world of investing, reshaping how decisions are made, risks are assessed, and portfolios are managed. As financial markets grow increasingly complex and data-driven, AI offers powerful tools to navigate this landscape with greater precision, speed, and insight.

At its core, AI refers to systems that can perform tasks typically requiring human intelligence—such as learning, reasoning, and problem-solving. In investing, this translates into algorithms that can analyze vast amounts of financial data, detect patterns, and make predictions with remarkable accuracy. Machine learning, a subset of AI, enables these systems to improve over time by learning from new data, making them especially valuable in dynamic markets.

One of the most significant applications of AI in investing is algorithmic trading. These systems can execute trades at lightning speed, responding to market fluctuations in milliseconds. By analyzing historical data and real-time market conditions, AI-driven trading platforms can identify optimal entry and exit points, often outperforming human traders. High-frequency trading firms have long relied on such technologies to gain competitive advantages.

AI also enhances portfolio management through robo-advisors—digital platforms that use algorithms to provide personalized investment advice. These tools assess an investor’s goals, risk tolerance, and time horizon, then construct and manage a diversified portfolio accordingly. Robo-advisors democratize access to financial planning, offering low-cost, automated solutions to individuals who might not afford traditional advisory services.

Risk assessment is another area where AI shines. By processing alternative data sources—such as social media sentiment, news articles, and satellite imagery—AI can uncover hidden risks and opportunities. For instance, a sudden spike in negative sentiment around a company on Twitter might signal reputational issues, prompting investors to reevaluate their positions. AI models can also forecast macroeconomic trends, helping investors anticipate shifts in interest rates, inflation, or geopolitical events.

Moreover, AI is transforming fundamental analysis. Natural language processing (NLP) allows machines to read and interpret earnings reports, SEC filings, and analyst commentary. This enables investors to extract insights from unstructured data that would be time-consuming to analyze manually. AI can even detect subtle linguistic cues that may indicate a company’s future performance or management’s confidence.

Despite its advantages, AI in investing is not without challenges. Models can be opaque, making it difficult to understand how decisions are made—a phenomenon known as the “black box” problem. There’s also the risk of overfitting, where algorithms perform well on historical data but fail in real-world scenarios. Ethical concerns, such as bias in data and the potential for market manipulation, must also be addressed.

In conclusion, AI is reshaping the investing landscape, offering tools that enhance efficiency, accuracy, and accessibility. While it’s not a panacea, its integration into financial markets marks a profound shift in how capital is allocated and wealth is managed. As technology continues to evolve, investors who embrace AI will be better positioned to thrive in an increasingly data-driven world.

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The Economy, Stocks and Commodities

By. A.I. and Staff Reporters

SPONSOR: http://www.CertifiedMedicalPlanner.org

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  • Economy: Headline PCE rose from 2.6% on an annual basis in July to 2.7% in August, while core PCE stayed flat at 2.9%—all in line with analyst expectations.
  • Stocks: Solid inflation numbers helped equities arrest their recent selloff and offset the latest batch of tariffs. However, all three major indexes still ended the week lower than where they started.
  • Commodities: Oil climbed as Ukrainian drones continue to strike Russian energy infrastructure. Meanwhile, gold hit another all-time high, and rose above $3,800 for the first time ever at one point today.

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Financial Self-Discovery for Medical Professionals

By Dr. David Edward Marcinko; MBA MEd CMP

PHYSICIAN COACHING: https://marcinkoassociates.com/process-what-we-do/

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SPONSOR: http://www.CertifiedMedicalPlanner.org

A Financial Self Discovery Questionnaire for Medical Professionals

For understanding your relationship with money, it is important to be aware of yourself in the contexts of culture, family, value systems and experience.  These questions will help you.  This is a process of self-discovery.  To fully benefit from this exploration, please address them in writing.  You will simply not get the full value from it if you just breeze through and give mental answers.  While it is recommended that you first answer these questions by yourself, many people relate that they have enjoyed the experience of sharing them with others who are important to them. 

As you answer these questions, be conscious of your feelings, actually describing them in writing as part of your process. 

Childhood

  • What is your first memory of money?
  • What is your happiest moment with Money? Your most unhappy?
  • Name the miscellaneous money messages you received as a child.
  • How were you confronted with the knowledge of differing economic circumstances among people, that there were people “richer” than you and people “poorer” than you?

Cultural heritage

  • What is your cultural heritage and how has it interfaced with money?
  • To the best of your knowledge, how has it been impacted by the money forces?  Be specific.  
  • To the best of your knowledge, does this circumstance have any motive related to Money?
  • Speculate about the manners in which your forebears’ money decisions continue to affect you today? 

Family

  • How is/was the subject of money addressed by your church or the religious traditions of your forebears?
  • What happened to your parents or grandparents during the Depression?
  • How did your family communicate about money?
  • How?  Be as specific as you can be, but remember that we are more concerned about impacts upon you than historical veracity.
  • When did your family migrate to America (or its current location)?
  • What else do you know about your family’s economic circumstances historically?

Your parents

  • How did your mother and father address money?
  • How did they differ in their money attitudes?
  • How did they address money in their relationship?
  • Did they argue or maintain strict silence?
  • How do you feel about that today?

Please do your best to answer the same questions regarding your life or business partner(s) and their parents.

Childhood: Revisited

  • How did you relate to money as a child?  Did you feel “poor” or “rich”? 
    Relatively?  Or, absolutely?  Why?
  • Were you anxious about money?
    Did you receive an allowance?  If so, describe amounts and responsibilities.
  • Did you have household responsibilities?
  • Did you get paid regardless of performance?
  • Did you work for money?

If not, please describe your thoughts and feelings about that.

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Same questions, as a teenager, young adult, older adult.

Credit

  • When did you first acquire something on credit?
  • When did you first acquire a credit card?
  • What did it represent to you when you first held it in your hands?
  • Describe your feelings about credit.
  • Do you have trouble living within your means?
  • Do you have debt?

Adulthood

  • Have your attitudes shifted during your adult life?  Describe.

Why did you choose your personal path? 
a)      Would you do it again?
b)      Describe your feelings about credit.

Adult attitudes

  • Are you money motivated? 
    If so, please explain why?  If not, why not? 
    How do you feel about your present financial situation? 
    Are you financially fearful or resentful?  How do you feel about that?
  • Will you inherit money?  How does that make you feel?
  • If you are well off today, how do you feel about the money situations of others? 
    If you feel poor, same question. 
  • How do you feel about begging?  Welfare?
    If you are well off today, why are you working?
  • Do you worry about your financial future?
  • Are you generous or stingy?  Do you treat?  Do you tip?
  • Do you give more than you receive or the reverse?  Would others agree?
  • Could you ask a close relative for a business loan?  For rent/grocery money?
  • Could you subsidize a non-related friend?  How would you feel if that friend bought something you deemed frivolous? 
  • Do you judge others by how you perceive they deal with their Money?
    Do you feel guilty about your prosperity?
    Are your siblings prosperous?
  • What part does money play in your spiritual life?
  • Do you “live” your Money values?

Conclusion

There may be other questions that would be useful to you.  Others may occur to you as you progress in your life’s journey. The point is to know your personal money issues and their ramifications for your life, work, and personal mission. 

This will be a “work-in-process” with answers both complex and incomplete.  Don’t worry. 

Just incorporate fine-tuning into your life’s process.

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3 Behavioral Biases Hurting Your Finances

By Dr. David Edward Marcinko MBA MEd CMP

SPONSOR: http://www.CertifiedMedicalPlanner.org

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The study of behavioral economics has revealed much about how different biases can affect our finances—often for the worse.

Take loss aversion: Because we feel a financial setback more acutely than a commensurate gain, we often cling to failed investments to avoid realizing the loss. Another potential hazard is present bias, or the tendency to prefer instant gratification over long-term reward, even if the latter gain is greater.

When it comes to money, sometimes it’s difficult to make rational decisions. Here, are three behavioral financial biases that could be impeding financial goals.

ANCHORING BIAS

Anchoring Bias happens when we place too much emphasis on the first piece of information we receive regarding a given subject. Anchoring is the mental trick your brain plays when it latches onto the first piece of information it gets, no matter how irrelevant. You might know this as a ‘first impression’ when someone relies on their own first idea of a person or situation.

Example: When shopping for a wedding ring a salesman might tell us to spend three months’ salary. After hearing this, we may feel like we are doing something wrong if we stray from this financial advice, even though the guideline provided may cause us to spend more than we can afford.

Example: Imagine you’re buying a car, and the salesperson starts with a high price. That number sticks in your mind and influences all your subsequent negotiations. Anchoring can skew our decisions and perceptions, making us think the first offer is more important than it is. Or, subsequent offers lower than they really are.

Example: Imagine an investor named Jane who purchased 100 shares of XYZ Corporation at $100 per share several years ago. Over time, the stock price declined to $60 per share. Jane is anchored to her initial price of $100 and is reluctant to sell at a loss because she keeps hoping the stock will return to her original purchase price. She continues to hold onto the stock, even as it declines, due to her anchoring bias. Eventually, the stock price drops to $40 per share, resulting in significant losses for Jane.

In this example, Jane’s nchoring bias to the original purchase price of $100 prevents her from rationalizing to sell the stock and cut her losses, even though market conditions have changed. So, the next time you’re haggling for your self, a potential customer or client, or making another big financial decision, be aware of that initial anchor dragging you down.

HERD MENTALITY BIAS

Herd Mentality Bias makes it very hard for humans to not take action when everyone around us does.

Example: We may hear stories of people making significant monetary profits buying, fixing up, and flipping homes and have the desire to get in on the action, even though we have no experience in real estate.

Example: During the dotcom bubble of the late 1990’s many investors exhibited a herd mentality. As technology stocks soared to astronomical valuations, investors rushed to buy these stocks driven by the fear of missing out on the gains others were enjoying. Even though some of these stocks had questionable fundamentals, the herd mentality led investors to follow the crowd.

In this example, the herd mentality contributed to the overvaluation of technology stocks. Eventually, it led to the dot-com bubble’s burst, causing significant losses for those who had unthinkingly followed the crowd without conducting proper research or analysis.

OVERCONFIDENT INVESTING BIAS

Overconfident Investing Bias happens when we believe we can out-smart other investors via market timing or through quick, frequent trading. This causes the results of a study to be unreliable and hard to reproduce in other research settings.

Example: Data convincingly shows that people and financial planners/advisors and wealth managers who trade most often under-perform the market by a significant margin over time. Active traders lose money.

Example: Overconfidence Investing Bias moreover leads to: (1) excessive trading (which in turn results in lower returns due to costs incurred), (2) underestimation of risk (portfolios of decreasing risk were found for single men, married men, married women, and single women), (3) illusion of knowledge (you can get a lot more data nowadays on the internet) and (4) illusion of control (on-line trading).

ASSESSMENT

Finally, questions remain after consuming this cognitive bias review.

Question: Can behavioral cognitive biases be eliminated by financial advisors in prospecting and client sales endeavors?

A: Indeed they can significantly reduce their impact by appreciating and understanding the above and following a disciplined and rational decision-making sales process.

Question: What is the role of financial advisors in helping clients and prospects address behavioral biases?

A: Financial advisors can provide an objective perspective and help investors recognize and address their biases. They can assist in creating well-structured investment and financial plans, setting realistic goals, and offering guidance to ensure investment decisions align with long-term objectives.

Question: How important is self-discipline in overcoming behavioral biases?

A; Self-discipline is crucial in overcoming behavioral biases. It helps investors and advisors adhere to their investment plans, avoid impulsive decisions, and stay focused on long-term goals reducing the influence of emotional and cognitive biases.

CONCLUSION

Remember, it is far more useful to listen to client beliefs, fears and goals, and to suggest options and offer encouragement to help them discover their own path toward financial well-being. Then, incentivize them with knowledge of the above psychological biases to your mutual success!

EDUCATION: Books

SPEAKING: Dr. Marcinko will be speaking and lecturing, signing and opining, teaching and preaching, storming and performing at many locations throughout the USA this year! His tour of witty and serious pontifications may be scheduled on a planned or ad-hoc basis; for public or private meetings and gatherings; formally, informally, or over lunch or dinner. All medical societies, financial advisory firms or Broker-Dealers are encouraged to submit an RFP for speaking engagements: CONTACT: Ann Miller RN MHA at MarcinkoAdvisors@outlook.com 

REFERENCES:

  • Marcinko, DE; Dictionary of Health Insurance and Managed Care. Springer Publishing Company, New York, 2007.
  • Marcinko, DE: Comprehensive Financial Planning Strategies for Doctors and Advisors: Best Practices from Leading Consultants and Certified Medical Planners™. Productivity Press, NY, 2016.
  • Marcinko, DE: Risk Management, Liability and Insurance Strategies for Doctors and Advisors: Best Practices from Leading Consultants and Certified Medical Planners™. Productivity Press, NY, 2017.
  • Nofsinger, JR: The Psychology of Investing. Rutledge Publishing, 2022
  • Winters, Scott:  The 10X Financial Advisor: Your Blueprint for Massive and Sustainable Growth. Absolute Author Publishing House, 2020.
  • Woodruff, Mandy: https://www.mandimoney.com

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BIAS: Financial Myopia

By A.I. and Staff Reporters

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BIAS

Bias is a prejudice in favor of or against one thing, person, or group compared with another, usually in a way considered to be unfair.

MYOPIA

Myopia (nearsightedness) is a common condition that’s usually diagnosed before age 20. It affects your distance vision — you can see objects that are near, but you have trouble viewing objects that are farther away like grocery store aisle markers or road signs. Myopia treatments include glasses, contact lenses or surgery.

MYOPIA BIAS

Myopia Bias makes it hard for us to imagine what our lives might be like in the future.

Financial Example: When we are young, healthy and in our prime economic earning years it may be hard for us to picture what life will be like when our health depletes and we no longer have the earnings necessary to support our standard of living.

Irony: This short-sightedness makes it hard to save adequately when we are young … when saving does the most good.

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PROSPECT THEORY: In Client Empowerment and Financial Decision Making

By Dr. David Edward Marcinko MBA MEd

SPONSOR: http://www.MarcinkoAssociates.com

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PROSPECT THEORY

In the early 1980s, Daniel Kahneman and Amos Tverskey proved in numerous experiments that the reality of decision making differed greatly from the assumptions held by economists. They published their findings in Prospect Theory: An analysis of decision making under risk, which quickly became one of the most cited papers in all of economics.

KAHNEMAN: https://medicalexecutivepost.com/2024/03/28/rip-daniel-kahneman-phd/

To understand the importance of their breakthrough, we first need to take a step back and explain a few things. Up until that point, economists were working under a normative model of decision making. A normative model is a prescriptive approach that concerns itself with how people should make optimal decisions. Basically, if everyone was rational, this is how they should act.

INVESTING PSYCHOLOGY: https://medicalexecutivepost.com/2025/02/21/investing-psychology/

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REAL-LIFE EXAMPLE

Amanda, an RN client, was just informed by her financial advisor that she needed to re-launch her 403-b retirement plan. Since she was leery about investing, she quietly wondered why she couldn’t DIY. Little does her Financial Advisor know that she doesn’t intend to follow his advice, anyway! So, what went wrong?

The answer may be that her advisor didn’t deploy a behavioral economics framework to support her decision-making. One such framework is the “prospect theory” model that boils client decision-making into a “three step heuristic.”
 
According to colleague Eugene Schmuckler PhD MBA MEd CTS, Prospect theory makes the unspoken biases that we all have more explicit. By identifying all the background assumptions and preferences that clients [patients] bring to the office, decision-making can be crafted so that everyone [family, doctor and patient] or [FA, client and spouse] is on the same page.

INVESTING MIND TRAPS: https://medicalexecutivepost.com/2025/06/12/psychology-common-finance-and-investing-mind-traps/

Briefly, the three steps are:

1. Simplify choices by focusing on the key differences between investment [treatment] options such as stock, bonds, cash, and index funds. 

2. Understanding that clients [patients] prefer greater certainty when it comes to pursuing financial [health] gains and are willing to accept uncertainty when trying to avoid a loss [illness].

3. Cognitive processes lead clients and patients to overestimate the value of their choices thanks to survivor bias, cognitive dissonance, appeals to authority and hindsight biases.

 CITE: Jaan E. Sidorov MD [Harrisburg, PA] 

Assessment

Much like in healthcare today, the current mass-customized approaches to the financial services industry fall short of recognizing more personalized advisory approaches like prospect theory and assisted client-centered investment decision-making.  

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SPEAKING: Dr. Marcinko will be speaking and lecturing, signing and opining, teaching and preaching, storming and performing at many locations throughout the USA this year! His tour of witty and serious pontifications may be scheduled on a planned or ad-hoc basis; for public or private meetings and gatherings; formally, informally, or over lunch or dinner. All medical societies, financial advisory firms or Broker-Dealers are encouraged to submit an RFP for speaking engagements: CONTACT: Ann Miller RN MHA at MarcinkoAdvisors@outlook.com -OR- http://www.MarcinkoAssociates.com

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EMOTIONAL INTELLIGENCE & ORGANIZATIONAL BEHAVIOR: Economic Risk Management Classification for Medical Professionals

BY DR. DAVID EDWARD MARCINKO, MBA MEd CMP®

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SPONSOR: http://www.MarcinkoAssociates.com

ORGANIZATIONAL BEHAVIOR AND CLASSIFICATION OF RISKS

DEFINITION EMOTIONAL INTELLIGENCE: Emotional intelligence [EI] refers to the ability to identify and manage one’s own emotions, as well as the emotions of others. Emotional intelligence is generally said to include a few skills: namely emotional awareness, or the ability to identify and name one’s own emotions; the ability to harness those emotions and apply them to tasks like thinking and problem solving; and the ability to manage emotions, which includes both regulating one’s own emotions when necessary and helping others to do the same.

DEFINITIONAL ORGANIZATIONAL BEHAVIOR: Organizational behavior (OB) is the study of how individuals, groups, and organizations interact and influence one another. Though it is largely used within the field of business management as means to understand–and more effectively manage–groups of people. The reason businesses look to OB is because it can help organizations increase employee performance, while also creating a positive working environment.

CITE: Eugene Schmuckler; PhD MBA MEd CTS®

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And so, as we review the concept of Emotional Intelligence and Organizational Behavior, it is possible to set up five EI/OB risk classes, based on the economic consequences of the occurrence of specific individual risks:

1. Prevented risks: Risks whose cost of occurrence is higher than their cost of management and whose occurrence may invoke additional legal sanctions. This class would include intentional torts and injuries caused by gross negligence.

2. Normally prevented risks: Risks whose cost of occurrence is greater than the cost of their management but whose occurrence will be considered only as negligent. This class includes most negligent injuries
and most types of product liability actions.

3. Managed risks: Risks whose cost of occurrence is only slightly greater than their cost of management. The plaintiff usually has the burden of showing that the defendant owed the plaintiff a special duty to recover for one of these risks.

4. Un-Prevented risks: Risks whose cost of occurrence is less than their cost of management. The classic example of this class is the cost of railroad crossing barriers compared to the cost of people being hit by
trains.

5. Un-Preventable risks: Risks whose occurrence is unmanageable. The assignment of a risk to one of these classes is a major problem in medical and healthcare quality control, because the class of a risk determines how much effort must be expended to prevent the risk. The misclassification of a prevented or normally prevented risk as a managed or un-prevented risk can result in large financial losses.

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For example: A medical clinic that does not update obsolete equipment, such as inaccurate oxygen monitors, would be liable for any injuries attributable to the obsolete equipment. The classifications of risk must be reviewed periodically to determine if the cost of the risk-taking behavior has changed, thereby altering the classification.

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For example: A small hospital in a rural area would not be expected to have the sophisticated equipment as a major hospital in a city. If an accident victim is brought into the rural facility, the hospital’s duty may be to transfer the patient to a better-equipped facility. The patient will face the risk of dying because of the delay in treatment, but the risk of insufficient treatments outweighs the risk of transfer. If the same victim were brought into a hospital in a major metropolitan center, the duty would be to treat the patient without a transfer. The risk of transfer has not changed, but the risk of insufficient treatment has disappeared.

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EDUCATION: Books

SPEAKING: Dr. Marcinko will be speaking and lecturing, signing and opining, teaching and preaching, storming and performing at many locations throughout the USA this year! His tour of witty and serious pontifications may be scheduled on a planned or ad-hoc basis; for public or private meetings and gatherings; formally, informally, or over lunch or dinner. All medical societies, financial advisory firms or Broker-Dealers are encouraged to submit an RFP for speaking engagements: CONTACT: Ann Miller RN MHA at MarcinkoAdvisors@outlook.com -OR- http://www.MarcinkoAssociates.com

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Do Political Biases Shape Your Financial Planner’s Advice?

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Stocks, Economics & Commodities

By AI

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  • Stocks: The S&P 500 and NASDAQ started the day inches away from their all-time highs, but the market rally faltered in mid-afternoon as relief from an Israel/Iran ceasefire faded and investors turned their attention to Friday’s PCE report.
  • Economy: Speaking of inflation, Jerome Powell stuck to his guns during his second day of congressional testimony, endorsing a wait-and-see mentality. President Trump is apparently tired of waiting, and says he has “3 or 4” candidates in mind to replace Powell.
  • Commodities: Oil bounced back after posting its biggest two-day decline since 2022.

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MORE INVESTING TERMS: All Doctors Should Know

By Staff Reporters

SPONSOR: http://www.MarcinkoAssociates.com

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Here is a list of the most common and helpful investment terms you’ll come across and should know.

  • Ask. The price that someone looking to sell stock wants to receive.
  • Bid. The price that someone is willing to pay for stock.
  • Buy. To acquire shares and thereby take a position in a company.
  • Sell. To get rid of shares whether because you’ve reached your goal or to prevent losses.
  • Bull market. Market conditions in which investors expect prices to rise.
  • Bear market. Market conditions in which investors expect prices to fall.
  • Dividend. A portion of a company’s earnings paid to shareholders.
  • Blue chip stocks. Shares of large and well-recognized companies that have a long history of solid financial performance.
  • Earning per share. A company’s net profit divided by the number of outstanding common shares.
  • Mutual fund. A collection of investments — stocks, bonds, commodities, and more — bundled together and held in common by a group of investors.
  • Asset. Something you own that could generate a return in the form of more assets.
  • Asset allocation. Your investment strategy, essentially — the mix of assets you choose to put your money into, whether that be cash, bonds, stocks, commodities, real estate or something else.
  • Broker. A person or firm — or robot — that arranges transactions between buyers and sellers in exchange for a commission (that is, a fee).
  • Capital gain (or capital loss). The money you make (or lose) on the sale of an asset.
  • Diversification. Investing in a variety of sectors, such as health care, energy and IT as well as across different geographic locations.
  • Dow Jones Industrial Average. A price-weighted list of 30 blue-chip stocks. It’s often used to help get a sense of the overall health of the stock market, even though it only reflects a small portion of the players.
  • Exchange-traded fund (ETF). A collection of investments that is traded like a stock.
  • Index fund. A type of mutual fund or exchange-traded fund that allows you to invest in a portfolio that mimics a market index, which is basically a list that tracks the performance of a group of investments either for a specific sector or the overall market.
  • Hedge fund. A type of investment partnership. Partners pool money from investors and try out a few different investing strategies. Generally, hedge funds will make riskier investments than your typical investor. They’ll also often use leverage (that is, borrowed money) or place bets against the market to get bigger returns. They make their money by charging their investors management fees based on a percentage of their profits.
  • Expense ratio. The percentage-based fee that mutual fund managers charge you to manage your investments.
  • Market price. How much it would cost right now to buy or sell an asset or service.
  • Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC). An independent government body that was created to protect investors and the national banking system. The SEC enforces laws that maintain orderly, fair and efficient markets.
  • Short selling. A tactic available to investors who predict a stock’s price is about to drop. An investor borrows a quantity of shares through a broker and then sells them, intending to repurchase them later, at a lower price, and return them to the lender.
  • Stock exchange. A place buyers and sellers come together to buy, sell and trade stock during set business hours. The New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) is the most important stock exchange in the world, but there are a total of 16 exchanges around the world.
  • Stock market. Refers in general to the collection of markets and exchanges where the buying, selling and trading of investment vehicles takes place.
  • Price per share. A simple way of calculating a company’s market value at a given moment. To find the price per share, you take a company’s most recent share price and multiply it by its total number of outstanding shares.
  • Prospectus. A legal document that contains in-depth information about anything you might be planning to invest in: stocks, bonds or mutual funds.

EDUCATION: Books

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PARADOXICAL CONTRADICTIONS: All Financial Advisors Must Know to Win Clients!

The Ultimate Psychological Challenge to Influence Clients and Close More Sales

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By Dr. David Edward Marcinko MBA MEd CMP

SPONSOR: http://www.CertifiedMedicalPlanner.org

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A psychological paradox is a figure of speech that can seem silly or contradictory in form, yet it can still be true, or at least make sense in the context given.

This is sometimes used to illustrate thoughts or statements that differ from traditional ideas. So, instead of taking a given statement literally, an individual must comprehend it from a different perspective. Using paradoxes in speeches and writings can also add wit and humor to one’s work, which serves as the perfect device to grab a reader or a listener’s attention and/or persuade them to action, sales and closing statements. But paradoxes for the financial sector can be quite difficult to explain by definition alone, which is why it is best to refer to a few examples to further your understanding.

One good psychological paradox example is The Paradox of Thrift which suggests that while saving money is generally considered a prudent financial behavior, excessive saving during times of economic downturn can actually hinder economic recovery. When consumers collectively reduce their spending and increase their savings, it creates a decrease in aggregate demand. This reduction in demand can lead to lower production levels, job losses, and ultimately a decline in economic output. In other words, what may be individually rational behavior (financial saving) can have negative consequences for the overall economy.  

The following paradoxical contradictions will help financial advisors guide clients to close more sales to the benefit of both.

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In the intricate world of finance sales, advisors are often at the crossroads of various paradoxes that challenge client decision-making. While the journey towards financial security involves calculated strategies, it’s the nuanced understanding of paradoxes that can help the advisor close more sales.

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But, what seems true about money often turns out to be false, according to colleague Finance Professor John Goodell, PhD from the University Akron:

  1. The more we try to trade our way to profits, the less likely we are to profit.
  1. The more boring an investment—think index funds—the more exciting the long-run performance will probably be.
  1. The more exciting an investment—name your latest Wall Street concoction, Special Purpose Acquisition Company [SPAC] or anything crypto—the less exciting the long-term results typically are.
  1. The only certainty is uncertainty and the only constant is change. Today’s market decline will eventually become a bull market, and today’s market leaders will eventually yield to other stocks.
  1. Big market trends play a huge role in investment results, and yet trying to time macroeconomic cycles or guess which market sectors will outperform is a fool’s errand. Many big market rotations are set in motion by something wholly unanticipated, like a virus pandemic or a war.
  1. To be happy when wealthy, we also need to be happy with far less money. The fact is, above a relatively modest income level, no amount of extra money will change our level of happiness. More money might even make us miserable, as many lottery winners have discovered.
  1. The more we hate an investing trait—or any trait for that matter—the more likely it is that we’re resisting seeing that trait in ourselves. It’s what Carl Jung MD called the Shadow of Undesirable Personality Aspects that we hide from ourselves. Do prospects get irritated listening to your unsolicited financial advice? There’s a good chance that you often give unsolicited financial advice but don’t like to admit it.
  1. The more we learn about investing, the more we realize we don’t know anything. We should just buy index funds and instead spend our time worrying about stuff we can actually control.
  1. The more an investor is convinced he’s right, the more likely he is to be wrong. Short sellers, in particular, are likely to succumb to this paradoxical trap.
  1. The more options we have, the less satisfied we’ll be with each one. This is the Paradox of Choice; revised. Anyone who has spent hours “optimizing” his or her portfolio knows this all too well. Its close cousin is information overload, another frustration paradox when investing.
  1. The more afraid we are of losing money, the more likely we are to take unwitting risks that lose us money. Sitting in cash seems wise during market selloffs. But the truth is, none of us can reliably time the market. Pull up any chart of the stock market over any period longer than a decade and you’ll see that the riskiest decision is sitting in cash, which gets destroyed by inflation.

The more we think about our investments and look at our financial accounts, the more likely we are to damage our results by buying high because of greed and selling low because of fear. It can pay to look away.

ASSESSMENT

How should you respond to these financial paradoxes? As you plan for your own financial future, as well as your own client prospecting endeavors, embrace the concept of “loosely held views.”

In other words, make financial and client acquisitions plans, but continuously update your views, question your assumptions and paradoxes and rethink your priorities. Years of experience with clients certainly support the futility of trying to help them change their financial behavior by telling them what they “should” know or do.

CONCLUSION

Remember, it is far more useful to listen to client beliefs, fears and goals, and to suggest options and offer encouragement to help them discover their own path toward financial well-being. Then, incentivize them with knowledge of the above psychological paradoxes to your mutual success!

EDUCATION: Books

SPEAKING: Dr. Marcinko will be speaking and lecturing, signing and opining, teaching and preaching, storming and performing at many locations throughout the USA this year! His tour of witty and serious pontifications may be scheduled on a planned or ad-hoc basis; for public or private meetings and gatherings; formally, informally, or over lunch or dinner. All medical societies, financial advisory firms or Broker-Dealers are encouraged to submit an RFP for speaking engagements: CONTACT: Ann Miller RN MHA at MarcinkoAdvisors@outlook.com 

REFERENCES:

1. Goodell, J: Full publication list on Google Scholar: https://scholar.google.com/citations?hl=en&user=lJyDADsAAAAJ

 2. Jung, Carl, Gustav: Full publication list on Google Scholar: https://scholar.google.com/scholar?hl=en&as_sdt=0%2C11&q=carl+jung+publications&btnG=

READINGS:

Marcinko, DE and Hetico, HR: Comprehensive Financial Planning Strategies for Doctors and Advisors [Best Practices from Leading Consultants and Certified Medical Planners™]. CRC Productivity Press, New York, 2016.

Marcinko, DE: Dictionary of Health Economics and Finance. Springer Publishing Company, New York. 2006

Marcinko, DE and Hetico, HR: Risk Management, Liability Insurance, and Asset Protection Strategies for Doctors and Advisors [Best Practices from Leading Consultants and Certified Medical Planners™]. CRC Productivity Press, New York, 2015.

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RIP: Stanley Fisher PhD; 81

BREAKING NEWS

By Staff Reporters

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Stanley Fischer, one of the most influential economists of recent decades, has died. He was 81. His death was confirmed by the WSJ and Bank of Israel, where he served as governor from 2005 to 2013.

Fischer served as vice chairman of the Federal Reserve from 2014 to 2017. He left his biggest mark in prior decades, as professor of economics at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology, second in command at the International Monetary Fund, and at the Bank of Israel. In those roles, Fischer helped shape how an entire generation of central bankers and economic policymakers do their jobs.

Fischer was born in 1943 in Northern Rhodesia (now the independent country of Zambia) and first came to the U.S. in 1966 to get a Ph.D. at MIT.

After several years at the University of Chicago, he joined the faculty of MIT.

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PARADOX: Baumol’s Economic Cost Disease

SPONSOR: http://www.HealthDictionarySeries.org

Staff Reporters

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According to Baumol’s Cost Disease, in theory, workers should get higher pay because they get more productive. But an economist named William J. Baumol PhD noticed this isn’t always true; as in a paradox.

For example, musicians take the same time to play a string quartet as they did in Mozart’s day, but are paid more nevertheless. The reason is competition for labor; musicians can take other jobs. So rising wages in productive parts of the economy (eg, manufacturing) lead to higher wages in less productive sectors.

MORE: For more on the paradoxical disease, read this article; and for more on Baumol, read this one.

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ECONOMICS: Free Market Resource Allocation

By Staff Reporters

SPONSOR: http://www.HealthDictionarySeries.org

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Free-market economists are those who believe that the market is better at allocating resources than governments and that excessive regulation and high public spending tend to diminish growth in the long run.

In Medicine: https://medicalexecutivepost.com/2024/09/19/dr-michel-accad-can-austrian-economics-save-medicine/

Austrian Economics: https://medicalexecutivepost.com/2024/06/07/the-entrepreneur-according-to-austrian-economists/

Keynsian v. Austrian Economics: https://medicalexecutivepost.com/2024/09/19/keynesian-versus-austrian-economics/

MORE: See also Austrian school, Chicago school, laissez-faire and neoliberalism.

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“Medical economics and finance is an integral component of the health care industrial complex. Its language is a diverse and broad-based concept covering many other industries: accounting, insurance, mathematics and statistics, public health, provider recruitment and retention, Medicare, health policy, forecasting, aging and long-term care, are all commingled arenas …. The Dictionary of Health Economics and Finance will be an essential tool for doctors, nurses and clinicians, benefits managers, executives and health care administrators, as well as graduate students and patients. With more than 5,000 definitions, 3,000 abbreviations and acronyms, and a 2,000 item oeuvre of resources, readings, and nomenclature derivatives, it covers the financial and economics language of every health care industry sector.”

ORDER DICTIONARY OF HEALTH ECONOMICS AND FINANCE: https://www.allbookstores.com/Dictionary-Health-Economics-Finance-David/9780826102546

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EDUCATION: Books

SPEAKING: Dr. Marcinko will be speaking and lecturing, signing and opining, teaching and preaching, storming and performing at many locations throughout the USA this year! His tour of witty and serious pontifications may be scheduled on a planned or ad-hoc basis; for public or private meetings and gatherings; formally, informally, or over lunch or dinner. All medical societies, financial advisory firms or Broker-Dealers are encouraged to submit a RFP for speaking engagements: MarcinkoAdvisors@outlook.com 

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STAGFLATION? Slow Growth, High Unemployment and Rising Prices.

DEFINED

By Staff Reporters

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Stocks ticked down yesterday, ending a six-day rally after some influential CEOs—including JPMorgan Chase’s Jamie Dimon—warned that markets have grown too complacent about tariffs and potential stagflation. But it was a spectacular day for Warby Parker, which climbed more than 15% after Google announced it’s partnering with the eyewear company on Google Glass (RIP) a new smart glasses device.

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  • Stagflation is the simultaneous appearance in an economy of slow growth, high unemployment, and rising prices.
  • Once thought by economists to be impossible, stagflation has occurred repeatedly in the developed world since the 1970s.
  • Policy solutions for slow growth tend to worsen inflation, and vice versa. That makes stagflation hard to fight.

Stagflation is the combination of high inflation, stagnant economic growth, and elevated unemployment.

The term stagflation, a blend of “stagnation” and “inflation,” was popularized by British politician Lain MacLeod in the 1960s, during a period of economic distress in the United Kingdom. It gained broader recognition in the 1970s after a series of global economic shocks, particularly the 1973 oil crisis, which disrupted supply chains and led to rising prices and slowing growth. Stagflation challenges traditional economic theories, which suggest that inflation and unemployment are inversely related, as depicted by the Phillips Curve.

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According to Wikipedia, stagflation presents a policy dilemma, as measures to curb inflation—such as tightening monetary policy—can exacerbate unemployment, while policies aimed at reducing unemployment may fuel inflation.

In economic theory, there are two main explanations for stagflation: supply shocks, such as a sharp increase in oil prices, and misguided government policies that hinder industrial output while expanding the money supply too rapidly.

NOTE: A portmanteau word or part of a word made by combining the spellings and meanings of two or more other words or word parts (such as smog from smoke and fog).

MORE: https://medicalexecutivepost.com/2019/06/25/what-is-a-portmanteau/

The stagflation of the 1970s led to a re-evaluation of Keynesian economic policies and contributed to the rise of alternative economic theories, including monetarism and supply-side economics.

PHILLIPS CURVE: https://medicalexecutivepost.com/2024/10/04/about-the-phillips-curve/

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MEDICAL DEMAND: Health Care Elasticity

DEFINITION

By Staff Reporters

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Classic: Despite a wide variety of empirical methods and data sources, the demand for health care is consistently found to be price inelastic

Modern: If you are sick, you will not be very price sensitive. There are exceptions to this rule (e.g., elective surgery such as plastic surgery, purchases of eyeglasses) but most studies find that patients are fairly insensitive to changes in health care prices.

Examples: For instance, the RAND Health Insurance Experiment found that the price elasticity of medical expenditures is -0.2.

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The Medical Executive-Post is a  news and information aggregator and social media professional network for medical and financial service professionals. Feel free to submit education content to the site as well as links, text posts, images, opinions and videos which are then voted up or down by other members. Comments and dialog are especially welcomed. Daily posts are organized by subject. ME-P administrators moderate the activity. Moderation may also conducted by community-specific moderators who are unpaid volunteers.

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EARNINGS REPORTS: Out This Week

BREAKING NEWS

By Staff Reporters

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This Week is Full of Data

On the economic side, things kick off on Tuesday with the S&P Case-Shiller home price index, and the job openings and labor turnover survey.

Then Wednesday brings the banga-bing, banga-boom: GDP, the ADP employment report, and of course, PCE.

On Thursday we get initial jobless claims and the ISM manufacturing index, followed by Friday’s US jobs report.

Company Earnings Reports

Monday: Domino’s Pizza, Waste Management, Nucor, and NXP Semiconductors

Tuesday: Visa, Coca-Cola, Novartis, AstraZeneca, HSBC, Pfizer, Honeywell, Spotify, Snap, American Tower, Altria, Starbucks, Mondelez International, Sherwin-Williams, UPS, BP, PayPal, Royal Caribbean Cruises, Universal Music Group, Hilton, Porsche, Adidas, GM, Corning, Kraft Heinz, JetBlue Airways, and Paccar

Wednesday: Microsoft, Meta, Samsung, Qualcomm, Caterpillar, Airbus, UBS, GSK, Barclays, Volkswagen, Robinhood, Humana, eBay, Norwegian Cruise Line, Albemarle, Wingstop, and Etsy

Thursday: Apple, Amazon, Eli Lilly, Mastercard, McDonald’s, Amgen, MicroStrategy, CVS Health, Airbnb, Dominion Energy, Roblox, Block, Hershey, Live Nation Entertainment, Kellanova, Estee Lauder, Reddit, Duolingo, Twilio, Juniper Networks, Moderna, United States Steel, Roku, Wayfair, and Harley-Davidson

Friday: ExxonMobil, Chevron, Shell, Eaton, Cigna Group, T. Rowe Price, Apollo, ING, and Wendy’s

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NEWS IN BRIEF: Financial, Investing, Economics and IT

BREAKING NEWS

By Staff Reporters

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  • Spot bitcoin ETFs saw their highest inflows since January over the last few days, sparking a crypto rally.
  • The Federal Reserve withdrew its guidance for banks about engaging in crypto-related business.
  • California is now the fourth-largest economy in the world.
  • OpenAI expects its revenue to reach $125 billion in 2029, up from $3.7 billion last year.
  • The median pay for CEOs rose to a record $16.8 million in 2024.
  • Meta Platforms is laying off staff working in its virtual reality division.
  • Apple announced it’s shifting its iPhone production from China to India.

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FINANCIAL MODELING TERMS: All Physicians Should Review and Know

By Staff Reporters

SPONSOR: http://www.CertifiedMedicalPlanner.org

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Financial Modeling is one of the most highly valued, but thinly understood, skills in financial analysis. The objective of financial modeling is to combine accounting, finance, and business metrics to create a forecast of a company’s future results.

According to Jeff Schmidt, a financial model is simply a spreadsheet, usually built in Microsoft Excel, that forecasts a business’s financial performance into the future. The forecast is typically based on the company’s historical performance and assumptions about the future and requires preparing an income statement, balance sheet, cash flow statement, and supporting schedules (known as a three-statement model, one of many types of approaches to financial statement modeling). From there, more advanced types of models can be built such as discounted cash flow analysis (DCF model), leveraged buyout (LBO), mergers and acquisitions (M&A), and sensitivity analysis

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DEFINED TERMS

Discounted Cash Flow (DCF): A valuation method used to estimate the value of an investment based on its expected future cash flows, adjusted for the time value of money. It’s like deciding whether a treasure chest is worth diving for now, based on the gold coins you’ll be able to cash in later.

Sensitivity Analysis: This involves changing one variable at a time to see how it affects an outcome. Imagine tweaking your coffee-to-water ratio each morning to achieve the perfect brew strength.

Budget – A budget is the amount of money a department, function, or business can spend in a given period of time. Usually, but not always, finance does this annually for the upcoming year.

Rolling ForecastA rolling forecast maintains a consistent view over a period of time (often 12 months). When one period closes, finance adds one more period to the forecast.

Topside – A topside adjustment is an overlay to a forecast. This is typically completed by the corporate or headquarter team. As individual teams submit a forecast, the consolidated result might not make sense or align with expectations. When this occurs, the high-level teams use a topside adjustment to streamline or adjust the consolidated view.

Monte Carlo Simulation: Picture yourself at the casino, but instead of gambling your savings away, you’re using this technique to predict different outcomes of your business decisions based on random variables. It’s like playing financial roulette with the odds in your favor.

What-If Analysis: Ever daydream about what would happen if you took that leap of faith with your business? This tool allows you to explore various scenarios without risking a dime. It’s like trying on outfits in a virtual dressing room before making a purchase.

Leveraged Buyout (LBO) Model: This is a bit like orchestrating a heist, but legally. It’s about acquiring a company using borrowed money, with plans to pay off the debts with the company’s own cash flows. High stakes, high rewards.

Mergers and Acquisitions (M&A) Model: Picture two puzzle pieces coming together. This model evaluates how combining companies can create a new, more valuable entity. It’s the corporate version of a matchmaker.

Three Statement Model: The holy trinity of financial modeling, linking the income statement, balance sheet, and cash flow statement. It’s like weaving a tapestry where each thread is crucial to the overall picture.

Capital Asset Pricing Model (CAPM): A formula that calculates the expected return on an investment, considering its risk compared to the market. It’s like choosing the best roller coaster in the park, balancing thrill and safety.

Cash Flow Forecasting: This is your financial weather forecast, predicting the cash flow climate of your business. It helps you plan for sunny days and save for the rainy ones.

Cost of Capital: The price of financing your business, whether through debt or equity. It’s like the interest rate on your growth engine, pushing you to maximize every dollar invested.

Debt Schedule: A timeline of your business’s debts, showing when and how much you owe. It’s your roadmap to becoming debt-free, one milestone at a time.

Equity Valuation: Determining the value of a company’s shares. It’s like assessing the worth of a rare gemstone, ensuring investors pay a fair price for a piece of the treasure.

Financial Leverage: Using debt to amplify returns on investment. It’s like using a lever to lift a heavy object, increasing force but also risk.

Forecast Model: A crystal ball for your finances, projecting future performance based on past and present data. It’s your guide through the financial wilderness, helping you navigate with confidence.

Operating Model: A detailed blueprint of how a business generates value, mapping out operational activities and their financial impact. It’s like laying out the inner workings of a clock, ensuring every gear turns smoothly.

Revenue Growth Model: This tracks potential increases in sales over time, charting a course for expansion. It’s like plotting your ascent up a mountain, anticipating the effort required to reach the summit.

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CRYPTOCURRENCY: Real Money-or Not?

By Rick Kahler CFP®

http://www.KahlerFinancial.com

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Is cryptocurrency really money?

For years, I thought of cryptocurrency as a digital replacement for traditional money. After all, Bitcoin has “coin” right in the name. But let’s be honest: if Bitcoin is a currency, then my mother’s old Beanie Baby collection is a retirement fund.

A real currency needs to be stable. It should allow you to buy a coffee today without wondering whether, by tomorrow, that same amount could buy a car—or be worth nothing at all. Bitcoin and its kin like Ethereum and Dogecoin fail this test spectacularly.

Recently I have realized that cryptocurrency might be something even bigger and stranger than currency. It is not just digital money; it’s a bet on the huge global demand for financial autonomy.

In an age where every dollar is tracked, crypto offers an escape from traditional financial oversight. That makes it attractive not just to cybercriminals and tax evaders, but also to privacy advocates, speculators, and people living under restrictive financial policies. It doesn’t replace traditional money, it sidesteps it. It allows people to move, store, create, and destroy wealth outside of conventional banking systems. Some use it for transactions. Others see it as a hedge against inflation or a bet on the future of decentralized finance. Governments and banks don’t quite know what to do with it.

Crypto exists in a financial gray zone. It’s not widely accepted for everyday purchases, yet it can hold immense value. Unlike cash, which is limited by geography, or gold, which requires secure storage, crypto can be transferred globally in seconds. That’s part of its appeal, especially in countries with strict capital controls or volatile economies.

At the heart of cryptocurrency’s identity is the way it is produced. Crypto isn’t just a speculative asset—it’s an industrialized wealth-creation system. Imagine a massive warehouse filled with powerful computers “manufacturing” cryptocurrency. These mining operations exist solely to create new “coins” and process transactions, consuming enormous amounts of electricity in the process. The larger the operation, the more crypto it produces.

This is not how traditional currencies work. Fiat currencies are managed by central banks aiming for economic stability. Crypto, by contrast, is controlled by a decentralized network of miners and participants [block-chain]. Its supply is fixed, immune to government intervention. Some see this as a weakness. Others argue it is crypto’s greatest strength.

As Bitcoin and other major cryptocurrencies become more integrated into mainstream finance, the risks evolve. Even as regulators warn about crypto’s role in illicit activity, major corporations and investment firms are offering crypto-backed products. Some politicians, including President Trump, are discussing national Bitcoin reserves. This growing legitimacy makes crypto harder to ignore. But if crypto-backed funds become widespread, a crash could ripple far beyond crypto traders. That said, crypto remains a small fraction of global finance. Unless institutional adoption grows significantly, even a major downturn likely wouldn’t trigger systemic collapse.

Crypto’s increasing presence in finance does not make it a sound retirement investment. It is still a speculation. And speculations—whether in Bitcoin, meme stocks, or dot-com startups—are high-risk and not suitable for long-term financial security. Retirement portfolios should be built on diversification, stability, and predictable returns. Crypto offers none of these.

For years, I saw crypto as a failed currency. What I now think it to be is a decentralized speculative asset, driven by a growing demand to bypass traditional financial systems. Its future remains uncertain. As regulation increases and mainstream adoption expands, its role will continue to shift. But crypto is no longer just a niche experiment. It has become a financial force that governments, institutions, and individuals must reckon with—whether they embrace it or try to control it.

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ECONOMIC THEORY: Congestion Pricing and Charges

By Wikipedia and Staff Reporters

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Congestion pricing or congestion charges is a system of surcharging users of public goods that are subject to congestion through excess demand, such as through higher peak charges for use of bus services, electricity, railways, telephones, and road pricing to reduce traffic congestion; airlines and shipping companies may be charged higher fees for slots at airports and through canals at busy times. This pricing strategy regulates demand, making it possible to manage congestion without increasing supply.

According to the economic theory behind congestion pricing, the objective of this policy is to use the price mechanism to cover the social cost of an activity where users otherwise do not pay for the negative externalities they create (such as driving in a congested area during peak demand).

By setting a price on an over-consumed product, congestion pricing encourages the redistribution of the demand in space or in time, leading to more efficient outcomes.

EDUCATION: Books

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POA: Power of Attorney Mistakes

The Power of Attorney Mistake That Could Cost You Everything

By Rick Kahler CFP®

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Recently, reading a training manual on elder abuse, I was reminded of a financial risk that is often overlooked. One of the fastest and easiest ways to unravel your financial security is to have the wrong person gain control of your money.

The example in the manual mirrored a heartbreaking situation I once experienced with a long-term client. As her mental and physical health declined, this single woman moved into assisted living. Her newly designated power of attorney, a relative from out of town, took control of her financial affairs.

Almost immediately, without consulting us, the relative began making large withdrawals, closed her accounts, and transferred funds elsewhere. They challenged the financial plan, investments, and strategies we had established to safeguard the client’s financial security and provide for her long-term care. Even though their actions threatened the client’s wellbeing, we were powerless to stop them. Our only recourse was to report the behavior to the authorities.

This heartbreaking and frustrating experience underscored just how critical it is to be mindful when executing a Power of Attorney. Besides designating someone you trust, it is wise to build in safeguards to prevent even a well-meaning relative from inadvertently derailing a carefully constructed financial plan.

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One such safeguard is to include a financial advisor in your POA—as long as that person is a fee-only, fiduciary advisor with an obligation to act in your best interests. In many cases, advisors are hesitant to suggest this option because they are sensitive to the potential conflict of interest and do not want to appear self-serving. An unfortunate reality is that you should be cautious if an advisor, particularly one who sells products on commission, seems eager to be added to your POA.

Including your financial advisor in your POA does not mean you designate them as your agent to manage your affairs. Instead, you include a clause naming them as the professional of record you want your designated agent to continue working with. This creates continuity and accountability. It prevents your agent from replacing your advisor with someone who may be unfamiliar with your needs and goals, unqualified, or untrustworthy.

Your advisor might also recommend adding a secondary safeguard, such as naming an attorney or accountant to oversee the selection of a successor advisor in case your current advisor is unable to continue. This additional layer of protection ensures that the financial professionals guiding your portfolio remain aligned with your best interests. Taking these extra steps can save you—and your loved ones—from significant financial stress down the road.

Including safeguards in your POA is not about mistrusting your loved ones, but about equipping them with the right resources and support to act in your best interest. Financial management is complex, and it requires expertise that most people, even those with the best intentions, may not possess.

One of the hardest parts about planning for diminished financial capacity is the emotional aspect. No one likes to imagine a time when they might not be able to manage their own money. But in reality, taking steps now to protect your financial future is the ultimate act of control. It can help ensure that your wishes are respected and the financial foundation you’ve worked so hard to build remains intact.

Remember, too, that avoiding conversations often increases financial vulnerability. If you don’t have a POA or aren’t comfortable with what you do have, now is the time to bring it up with your advisor, attorney, or a trusted family member. These safeguards are about protecting yourself. They also support those you will rely on to care for you and your financial legacy,

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MONETARISM: Financing and Policy

By Staff Reporters

SPONSOR: http://www.MarcinkoAssociates.com

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Monetarism is the belief that changes in the money supply are the main determinant of changes in inflation, associated especially with Milton Friedman, an American economist. Cases of hyperinflation have indeed been associated with the rapid printing of money. But when governments adopted monetarist policies in the late 1970s and early 1980s, they found money supply hard to control and also struggled to decide which measure of money supply was best to target. Monetarist policies were abandoned in favor of inflation targeting.

Monetary financing is the direct financing of government spending by the central bank. This happened during the hyperinflation in Germany in 1923 and was thus regarded as anathema for a long period afterwards. As a result, some commentators viewed quantitative easing after the financial crisis of 2007-09 with great suspicion. Technically, however, QE is not monetary financing, because central banks only buy government bonds in the secondary market and because they pay interest on reserves (the money they create).

Monetary policy The use, normally by the central bank, of interest rates and other tools to try to influence the economy. Interest rates are raised when the bank is trying to control inflation and lowered when inflation is low and it is trying to revive the economy. The financial crisis of 2007-09 led central banks to face the zero lower bound. This prompted many of them to use a new tool, quantitative easing, which was designed to bring down long-term rates or bond yields.

Cite: Economist.com

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How to Invest When There’s Nowhere to Hide

By Vitaliy Katsenelson; CFA

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How to Invest When There’s Nowhere to Hide
I was having lunch with a close friend of mine. He mentioned that he had accumulated a significant sum of money and did not know what to do with it. It was sitting in bonds, and inflation was eating its purchasing power at a very rapid rate.

He is a dentist and had originally thought about expanding his business, but a shortage of labor and surging wages turned expanding into a risky and low-return investment. He complained that the stock market was extremely expensive. I agreed.*

He said that the only thing left was residential real estate. I pushed back. “What do you think will happen to the affordability of houses if – and most likely when – interest rates go up? Inflation is now 6%. I don’t know where it will be in a year or two, but what if it becomes a staple of the economy? Interest rates will not be where they are today. Even at 5% interest rates [I know, a number unimaginable today] houses become unaffordable to a significant portion of the population. Yes, borrowers’ incomes will be higher in nominal terms, but the impact of the doubling of interest rates on the cost of mortgages will be devastating to affordability.”

He rejoined, “But look at what happened to housing over the last twenty years. Housing prices have consistently increased, even despite the financial crisis.”

I agreed, but I qualified his statement: “Over the past twenty, actually thirty, years interest rates declined. I honestly don’t know where interest rates will be in the future. But probabilistically, knowing what we know now, the chances that they are going to be higher, much higher, are more likely than their staying low. Especially if you think that inflation will persist.”

We quickly shifted our conversation toward more meaningful topics, like kids.

It seems that every year I think we have finally reached the peak of crazy, only to be proven wrong the next year. The stock market and thus index funds, just like real estate, have only gone one way – up. Index funds became the blunt instrument of choice in an always-rising market. So far, this choice has paid off nicely.

The market is the most expensive it has ever been, and thus future returns of the market and index funds will be unexciting. (I am being gentle here.)

You don’t have to be a stock market junkie to notice the pervasive feeling of euphoria. But euphoria is a temporary, not a permanent emotion; and at least when it comes to the stock market, it is usually supplanted by despair. Market appreciation that was driven by expanding valuations was not a gift but a loan – the type of loan that must always be paid back with a high rate of interest.

I don’t know what straw will break the feeble back of this market or what will cause the music to stop (there, you got two analogies for the price of none). We are in an environment where there are very few good options. If you do nothing, your savings will be eaten away by inflation. If you do something, you find that most assets, including the stock market as a whole, are incredibly overvalued.

This is why what we do at IMA is so important.

We are doing the only sensible thing that you can do today. We spend very little time thinking about straws or what will cause the music to stop or how overvalued the market is. We are focusing all our energy on patiently building a portfolio of high-quality, cash-generative, significantly undervalued businesses that have pricing power.

This has admittedly been less rewarding than taking risky bets on unimaginably expensive assets. It may lack the excitement of sinking money into the darlings you see in the news every day, but we hope that our stocks will look like rare gems when the euphoria condenses into despair. As we keep repeating in every letter, the market is insanely overvalued. Our portfolio is anything but – we don’t own “the market”.

*A question may arise: Why did I not tell my dentist friend to pick individual stocks? He runs a busy dental practice and wouldn’t have the time or the training to pick stocks.

Why didn’t I offer him our services? IMA manages all my and my family’s liquid assets, but I have a rule that I never (ever!) break – I don’t manage my friends’ money. I’ll help them as much as possible with free advice but will never have a professional relationship with them. I intentionally create a separation between my personal and professional lives. After a difficult day in the market, I want to be able to go for beers with friends and leave the market at the office.

Also, this simplifies my relationships with my friends. There is no ambiguity in our friendship.

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A NEW NORM: Revising Financial Planning Principles for Physicians?

DR. DAVID EDWARD MARCINKO; MBA MEd CMP

SPONSOR: http://www.MarcinkoAssociates.com

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In 1972, Nobel Laureate Kenneth J. Arrow, PhD shocked academe’ by identifying health economics as a separate and distinct field. Yet, the seemingly disparate insurance, tax, risk management and financial planning principles that he also studied are just now becoming transparent to some medical professionals and their financial advisors. Despite the fact that a basic, but hardly promoted premise of this new wave financial planning era, is imprecision.

More: https://medicalexecutivepost.com/2024/11/09/arrow-information-paradox/

Nevertheless, to informed cognoscenti like Certified Medical Planners™, the principles served as predecessors to the modern physician-focused financial advisory niche sector. In 2004, Arrow was selected as one of eight recipients of the National Medal of Science for his innovative views.

More: http://www.CertifiedMedicalPlanner.org

And now, as a long bull market may be over, and if the current “new-normal” prevails – meaning a 4.5% real annualized rate of return on equities and a 1.5% real rate on bonds – wealth accumulation for all may be reduced.

An Imprecise Science

There is a major variable, dominant in any marketplace that pushes an economy in a forward direction. It is called consumerism. This became apparent while waiting in a doctor’s office one recent afternoon.

Scenario:

The front office receptionist, who appeared to be about 21 years old, was breaking for lunch and her replacement, who appeared not much older, came over to assist. Realizing the propensity for a long wait, one was taken by the size of waiting room and the number of patients coming in and out of the office. [Americans consume healthcare and a lot of it]. There was another notable peculiarity. The sample prescription bags being carried out the door were no match for the bags under everyone’s eyes, including the doctor’s. The office staff was probably working overtime, if not two jobs, and the doctor was working harder and faster in a managed care system.

Assessment

Why? So they all could afford to buy and voraciously consume for their children and themselves. Americans indeed work longer hours than any other industrialized nation.

Conclusion

Finally, as women medical professionals entered the workforce in unprecedented numbers, the stock markets reached an all time high in 2025, even as money was spent at a feverish pace as the Federal Reserve pumped out money in inflammatory fashion.

EDUCATION: Books

SPEAKING: Dr. Marcinko will be speaking and lecturing, signing and opining, teaching and preaching, storming and performing at many locations throughout the USA this year! His tour of witty and serious pontifications may be scheduled on a planned or ad-hoc basis; for public or private meetings and gatherings; formally, informally, or over lunch or dinner. All medical societies, financial advisory firms or Broker-Dealers are encouraged to submit a RFP for speaking engagements: CONTACT: MarcinkoAdvisors@outlook.com 

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MACRO-FORECASTING: The True Value

By Vitaliy Katsenelson CFA

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The True Value of Macro Forecasting
While in Omaha for the Berkshire Hathaway annual meeting one year, I participated in an investment panel hosted by a local chapter of the Young Presidents’ Organization. I had the privilege of sharing the stage with such industry giants as Tom Russo, a partner of Gardner Russo & Gardner (famous for knowing more about consumer stocks than the management that runs them), and Tom Gayner, president and CIO of Markel Corp., a specialty insurance company that on many levels resembles the Berkshire of 30 years ago.

We were asked how much time a value investor should spend on macro forecasting. Usually macro forecasting is frowned upon in the value investing community, and Berkshire CEO Warren Buffett has everything to do with that. He is famous for saying (and I am paraphrasing), “My decision making would not change even if I knew what the Federal Reserve will do with interest rates next month.” There is sound logic behind this: Forecasting the economy is incredibly difficult in the short run. The economy is not unlike a black box with hundreds of gauges on it that in the near term give you conflicting readings about what’s inside it.

For this reason macro forecasting was disapproved of by value investors, and for 20 years this attitude paid off. The economic climate was favorable, the stock market was in overdrive, price-earnings ratios were expanding. Macro did not matter — until the housing bubble and financial crisis. Value investors who had had their heads in the sand got annihilated.

Things in life often swing, pendulum-like, from one extreme to another. Right after a crisis every investor is a macro expert. It’s kind of hilarious: Investors who just a few years earlier didn’t even know the names of most economic indicators are now spitting them out in conversations as though they had absorbed them with their mother’s milk. So what should investors do — become macro experts or economic ignoramuses?

Believe it or not, there is a logical and, more important, a practical answer to this question. As an investor you want to spend very little time on forecasting the weather (that is, what the Fed will do with interest rates next month or the rate of growth of the economy). Weather forecasting, first of all, is not always accurate, but it will certainly consume a lot of time and energy, and the forecasts have a very finite shelf life. Yesterday’s weather is irrelevant today. As long as you own companies that can survive rain without catching pneumonia — even a few weeks of rain — weather forecasting is a waste of time. This is what Buffett was implying by saying he didn’t want to be a macro forecaster.

However, instead of being a weatherman (or weatherwoman), as an investor you want to pay serious attention to “climate change” — significant shifts in the global economy that can impact your portfolio. This is exactly what Buffett did over the past few decades — he was warning about the weak dollar because of trade-deficit imbalances (he even put on a trade that bet against the dollar). He also warned about derivatives — “weapons of mass destruction” — and tried to cleanse them from the portfolio of General Re (an insurance company Berkshire acquired) as fast as he could.

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TRILEMMA Economics

By Staff Reporters

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What is a Trilemma?

A trilemma refers to a situation in which three options are available, but only two can be chosen at a time. It is a situation in economics and international finance in which all three possible options are difficult or nearly impossible to achieve. Unlike a dilemma, which has two options, a trilemma has three options, all of which cannot be selected at once.

Trilemma in Economics

The impossible trinity is an example of a trilemma in economics. In an impossible trinity, a country can’t have a fixed exchange rate, independent monetary policy, and free capital movement all at once. A country can achieve only two out of the three policy objectives.

The impossible trinity involves a third option as a trilemma constraint, which cannot be achieved with the selected two options. It means that the selection of any two options will make it necessary to sacrifice the third beneficial option. It is like a three-way trade-off.

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PYGMALION: Rosenthal Effect

By Staff Reporters

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The Pygmalion Effect, also known as the Rosenthal Effect, is a fascinating psychological phenomenon where higher expectations lead to an increase in performance. This concept originated from a study conducted by Robert Rosenthal and Lenore Jacobson in the 1960s. They discovered that when teachers were led to believe that certain students were expected to perform better academically, those students indeed showed significant improvement.

Here’s a brief overview of how the Pygmalion Effect works:

  1. Expectation Setting: When someone in a position of authority (like a teacher or manager) has high expectations for an individual, they often communicate these expectations through subtle cues.
  2. Behavioral Changes: The individual receiving these cues tends to internalize the expectations and changes their behavior accordingly. They might become more motivated, put in more effort, and show greater persistence.
  3. Performance Improvement: As a result of these behavioral changes, the individual’s performance improves, thereby fulfilling the initial high expectations.

This effect highlights the power of positive reinforcement and belief in someone’s potential. It underscores the importance of fostering a supportive and encouraging environment, whether in educational settings, workplaces, or personal relationships.

If you’re interested in applying the Pygmalion Effect in your life, consider these tips:

  • Set High, Yet Realistic Expectations: Believe in the potential of those around you and communicate your confidence in their abilities.
  • Provide Support and Resources: Ensure that individuals have the tools and support they need to meet these expectations.
  • Offer Positive Feedback: Regularly acknowledge and celebrate progress and achievements to reinforce positive behavior.

Remember, the Pygmalion Effect is a powerful reminder that our beliefs and expectations can significantly influence the outcomes we see in others.

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OPEN LETTER: MARCINKO Associates, Inc.

MISSION STATEMENT

Open Letter from the CEO

Dr. David Edward Marcinko MBA CMP™

http://www.MarcinkoAssociates.com

ALL MEDICAL AND HEALTHCARE COLLEAGUES

Did you know that at MARCINKO & Associates, all medical colleagues throughout the United States may contact us when they are considering the sale, purchase, strategic operating improvement, merger, acquisition and/or other financial business or related personal financial planning transaction?

MORE: https://marcinkoassociates.com/welcome-medical-colleagues/

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Our difference is “hard” knowledge and insider financial guidance that helps medical colleagues, nurses, private practitioners, clinics, ambulatory surgery, radiology and outpatient wound care centers realize their ultimate economic goals. This typically includes managerial and cost accounting, financial ratio analysis, fair market valuation business appraisals, business plan creation and personal financial planning.

MORE: https://marcinkoassociates.com/fmv-appraisals/

Our “expert witness” business litigation support service and divorce mediation, arbitration, asset division, settlement and second opinion offerings are always available, as well.

MORE: https://marcinkoassociates.com/expert-witness/

And, our “soft” skill professional career guidance and mentoring center includes executive coaching, consulting and mentoring advisory programs for stressed, conflicted or burned-out physicians and medical practitioners.

Most importantly, our professional fees are reasonable and always transparent.

MARCINKO & Associates also serves universities, medical, business, graduate and nursing schools; physicians, dentists, podiatrists, optometrists and legal societies. This includes accountants, financial service providers, wealth and hedge fund managers, emerging entities, hospitals, CEOs and their BODs, the press, media and related organizations.

MORE: https://marcinkoassociates.com/speaking-seminars/

Contact us for an educational white-paper on most any topic.

MORE: https://marcinkoassociates.com/case-studies/

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Now, please review our website to learn more.

And, always retain us when needed.

How May We Serve You?

DAVID EDWARD MARCINKO

email: MarcinkoAdvisors@msn.com

© Copyright: Institute of Medical Business Advisors, Inc. All rights reserved, USA. Present to 2024.

K SHAPED: Economy and Recovery

By Staff Reporters

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Understanding the K-shaped Economy

According to Olivia Voltaggio, in a V-shaped economy, things go down but then bounce back for everyone. In a K-shaped economy, the overall economy might go down. Only some parts of it recover, while others keep struggling.

In a K-shaped economy, people’s financial situations vary widely. Not everyone faces the same struggles. Lenders and financial institutions need to be flexible with strategy. They need to understand the different challenges their customers are dealing with.

Navigate with caution: The gaps in economic recovery highlight the importance of taking a careful, strategic approach.

How did we end up with a K-shaped recovery in 2024?

Inflation-driven price increases seem to be getting more stable. But, they may not reach the goal set by the government until 2026. This has made things more expensive for regular families.

For example, people with student loan debt had to start paying it back in October 2023. This was after a pandemic-induced grace period. Student loan repayment made budgeting harder. Borrowers might need to spend more on average than expected. For young adults (Gen Z), it could be even more.

Finally, more people are using credit cards because things are getting more expensive. Some are struggling to pay their credit card bills on time.

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LUCAS Paradox

By Staff Reporters

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The Lucas Paradox occurs when capital is not flowing from developed countries to developing countries despite the fact that developing countries have lower levels of capital per worker, and therefore higher returns to capital.

According to Wikipedia, economic theory predicts that capital should flow from rich countries to poor countries, due to the effect of diminishing returns of capital. Poor countries have lower levels of capital per worker – which explains, in part, why they are poor. In poor countries, the scarcity of capital relative to labor should mean that the returns related to the infusion of capital are higher than in developed countries.

In response, savers in rich countries should look at poor countries as profitable places in which to invest. In reality, things do not seem to work that way. Surprisingly little capital flows from rich countries to poor countries. This puzzle was famously discussed in a paper by Robert Lucas PhD in 1990.

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MANDEVILLE’S Economic Paradox

DEFINITION

By Staff Reporters

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Bernard Mandeville’s Paradox represent actions that may be vicious to individuals may also benefit society as a whole.

Mandeville’s Paradox challenges traditional moral and economic assumptions about selfishness and virtue. It suggests that economic systems can thrive on individual self-interest, a concept that has influenced modern economic thought, particularly in the development of free-market ideologies.

Understanding this paradox is crucial for economists, policymakers, and philosophers as it complicates the evaluation of behaviors and policies based solely on their perceived moral qualities. It invites a complex analysis of how individual actions, regardless of their intentions, contribute to the broader welfare of society.

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METZLER’S Paradox

By Staff Reporters

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Metzler’s Paradox is the imposition of a tariff [tax] on imports that may reduce the relative internal price of that good.

It was proposed by Lloyd Metzler PhD in 1949 upon examination of tariffs within the Heckscher-Ohlin Model. The paradox has roughly the same status as immiserizing growth and a transfer that makes the recipient worse off.

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PARADOX: Demographic-Economics

By Staff Reporters

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Demographic-Economics Paradox Definition: A nations or sub-populations with higher GDP per capita are observed to have fewer children, even though a richer population can support more children. Dr. Herwig Birg has called this inverse relationship between income and fertility a “demo-economic paradox”.

Cite: https://www.researchgate.net/profile/Herwig-Birg

Why? Evolutionary biology predicts that more successful individuals (and by analogy countries) should seek to develop optimum conditions for their life and reproduction.

However, in the last half of the 20th century it has become clear that the economic success of developed countries is being counterbalanced by a demographic failure, a sub-replacement fertility that may prove destructive for their future economies and societies.

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FINANCIAL: Rule of 20 Defined

A Dimensionless Number

By Staff Reporters

SPONSOR: http://www.MarcinkoAssociates.com

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What is the Rule of 20?

The Rule of 20 is a dimensionless number that adds the current 12-month trailing Price to Earnings Ratio to the annual change in an index of the annual consumer inflation rate. A reading below 20, while a market is trending lower, means that we could be near a bottom.

In the United States, the most common index used is the broad-based S&P 500, and CPI-U is used as a proxy for inflation.

The Rule of 20 is purportedly a rule from Peter Lynch. In chapter 39 of Graham and Dodd’s seminal Security Analysis, they mention: “We would suggest that about 20 times average earnings is as high a price as can be paid in an investment purchase of a common stock” … with no mention of inflation.

Lynch’s formulation attempts to factor the ‘gravity’ of interest rates into the fair value of a stock. And, as you can see, the measure has fluctuated quite a bit. However, it has returned to roughly the 20 level repeatedly.

MORE: https://dqydj.com/sp-500-rule-of-20-calculator/

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DAILY UPDATE: Walgreens to PE as CPI Upticks and Markets Blast Off this Morning

MEDICAL EXECUTIVE-POST TODAY’S NEWSLETTER BRIEFING

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Essays, Opinions and Curated News in Health Economics, Investing, Business, Management and Financial Planning for Physician Entrepreneurs and their Savvy Advisors and Consultants

Serving Almost One Million Doctors, Financial Advisors and Medical Management Consultants Daily

A Partner of the Institute of Medical Business Advisors , Inc.

http://www.MedicalBusinessAdvisors.com

SPONSORED BY: Marcinko & Associates, Inc.

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According to reporting from the Wall Street Journal, the pharmacy chain Walgreen’s is discussing selling to private equity (PE) firm Sycamore Partners, a deal that could close early next year. This comes following a tumultuous year for the company, which announced it would close 1,200 stores in October and laid off more than 250 employees in November. The PE firm is allegedly considering selling off pieces of the business or working with partners, sources told the Journal. Following the news, Walgreens’s stock jumped 28%, its biggest single-day increase since 1980, according to Yahoo Finance.

CITE: https://www.r2library.com/Resource

Inflation rose 2.7% on an annual basis in November, according to the latest government report on the Consumer Price Index, or CPI. Last month’s CPI was forecast to come in at 2.7%, according to economists surveyed by financial data firm FactSet. The Consumer Price Index, a basket of goods and services typically bought by consumers, tracks the change in those prices over time. 

CITE: https://tinyurl.com/2h47urt5

US stocks opened higher on Wednesday as investors digested another month of sticky inflation data that met economists’ expectations and likely pointed to a Federal Reserve interest rate cut next week. The Dow Jones Industrial Average (^DJI) increased about 0.2%, while the S&P 500 (^GSPC) jumped nearly 0.5%. The tech-heavy NASDAQ Composite (^IXIC) also added to across-the-board gains, rising roughly 0.8%.

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Visualize: How private equity tangled banks in a web of debt, from the Financial Times.

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