BOARD CERTIFICATION EXAM STUDY GUIDES Lower Extremity Trauma
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Posted on November 10, 2024 by Dr. David Edward Marcinko MBA MEd CMP™
By Staff Reporters
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Memory is Fallible. Think you have a great memory? Think again.
According to psychologist and colleague Dan Ariely PhD, memory is more like a game of telephone than a recording device. Each time you recall an event, your brain makes tiny edits, adding some flair or skipping the boring parts. It’s why you can’t remember where you left your keys but can vividly recall an embarrassing moment from high school.
So, the next time someone says, “I remember it like it was yesterday,” know that yesterday might be a heavily edited rerun.
A company that invests in real estate and whose shares trade on a public exchange.
Real Estate Investment Trust (REIT)
A real estate operating company (REOC) is similar to a real estate investment trust (REIT), except that an REOC will reinvest its earnings into the business, rather than distributing them to unit holders like REITs do.
Also, REOCs are more flexible than REITs in terms of what types of real estate investments they can make.
Derivatives are securities whose performance and/or structure is derived from the performance and/or structure of other assets, interest rates, or indexes. If used moderately and in appropriate situations, derivatives can help stabilize portfolios and/or enhance returns. However, if used in excess and/or in inappropriate circumstances, they can be harmful, potentially causing portfolio instability and/or losses. Derivatives are similar to medicine in their behavior–usually safe when used as directed, potentially toxic when abused.
There are many different types of derivative securities and many different ways to use them. Some derivative securities, such as mortgage-related and other asset-backed securities, are in many respects like any other investment, although they may be more volatile or less liquid than more traditional debt securities.
Futures and options are commonly used for traditional hedging purposes to attempt to protect portfolios from exposure to changing interest rates, securities prices or currency exchange rates, and for cash management purposes as a low-cost method of gaining exposure to a particular securities market without investing directly in those securities.
Certain other derivative securities may be described as structured investments. A structured investment is a security whose value or performance is linked to an underlying index or other security or asset class. Structured investments include collateralized mortgage obligations (CMOs). Structured investments also include securities backed by other types of collateral.
According to Wikipedia, a fundamental tenet of the paradox is that the customer, i.e. the potential purchaser of the information describing a technology (or other information having some value, such as facts), wants to know the technology and what it does in sufficient detail as to understand its capabilities or have information about the facts or products to decide whether or not to buy it. Once the customer has this detailed knowledge, however, the seller has in effect transferred the technology to the customer without any compensation. This has been argued to show the need for patent protection [HIPPA].
If the buyer trusts the seller or is protected via contract, then they only need to know the results that the technology will provide, along with any caveats for its usage in a given context. A problem is that sellers lie, they may be mistaken, one or both sides overlook side consequences for usage in a given context, or some unknown-unknown affects the actual outcome.
Posted on November 8, 2024 by Dr. David Edward Marcinko MBA MEd CMP™
By Staff Reporters
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Artificial Scarcity refers to the intentional limitation of the availability of a product or resource to create a sense of rarity, which often drives up its perceived value and price.
Think: surge pricing
And, circumstances with insufficient competition can lead to suppliers exercising enough market power to constrict supply. The clearest example is a monopoly, where a single producer has complete control over supply and can extract a additional price.
By creating a temporary shortage, sellers or producers can increase demand and capitalize on consumers’ fear of missing out, thereby influencing market dynamics to their advantage. This strategy is frequently used in marketing, particularly for limited-edition items or high-demand products.
Posted on November 8, 2024 by Dr. David Edward Marcinko MBA MEd CMP™
FREE SAMPLES
The Art of Giving – And Receiving – Value!
By Staff Reporters
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Imagine you’re at a party, and someone hands you a drink. Your first instinct? Find something to give back. This is [sales] reciprocity in action – our built-in psychological urge to repay kindness.
According to colleague Dan Ariely PhD, it’s like a cosmic balance sheet in our brains, ensuring we don’t owe anyone a favor. This is why companies give out free samples. They’re not just being nice; they know you’ll feel a pang of guilt if you walk away without buying something.
THINK: Free financial planning dinner seminar and prospecting event. That’s you – the Sales Prospect!
So, next time someone does you a favor, remember: it’s not just seller kindness, it’s science!
Currency Hedging is a risk-management strategy, as part of a foreign investment strategy, currency hedging is designed to reduce the impact from changes in the relative values of currencies involved in the foreign investment strategy.
In any foreign investment strategy, a significant part of the potential risk and return comes from exposure to relative currency value fluctuations. If exposure to those currency fluctuations is minimized, investors can experience more of a “pure play” exposure to the foreign investments. There is a variety of possible currency hedging strategies, ranging from swaps, options, and spot contracts to simply buying foreign currencies.
Currency Overlay is a financial trading strategy used to separate the management of currency risk from other portfolio strategies. A currency overlay manager can seek to hedge the risk from adverse movements in exchange rates, and/or attempt to profit from tactical currency views.
Stocks surged and stayed higher all yesterday day on news of Donald Trump’s presidential victory. The Dow rocketed over 1,350 points as soon as markets opened, and all three indexes ended the day at record highs.
Treasuryyields have paralleled Trump’s chances of taking the White House for the last few weeks, and his election sent them soaring to over 4.46% at one point today.
Oil and gold both fell as the dollar rose after Trump’s win. The greenback popped on the promise of Trump’s protectionist tariff policies and the lower likelihood of the Fed cutting interest rates as fast as previously expected.
Bitcoin surged as traders celebrated the beginning of the new, friendlier regulatory environment that Trump promised during his campaign.
Posted on November 7, 2024 by Dr. David Edward Marcinko MBA MEd CMP™
By Staff Reporters
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The cocktail party effect is the ability of the human hearing and auditory system to focus one’s listening attention on a particular speaker in a noisy environment, such as a crowded party. This allows people to focus on a specific conversation while filtering out other nearby conversations and background noise.
Consider that you’re at a crowded party, noise everywhere, but you hear your name mentioned across the room. How? Welcome to the Cocktail Party Effect.
Your brain is like a highly trained butler, filtering out the background chatter to catch something personally relevant. It’s not just your name, either; it could be juicy gossip or a mention of free pizza or an exciting new stock tip you’ve been considering; or even an IPO.
So, according to psychologist colleague Dan Ariely PhD, this selective attention keeps us sane in a noisy world, helping us focus on the things that matter – like whether that person just said “free drinks” or “freeloading, or “free-stock trading.”
Posted on November 7, 2024 by Dr. David Edward Marcinko MBA MEd CMP™
MEDICAL EXECUTIVE-POST–TODAY’SNEWSLETTERBRIEFING
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Essays, Opinions and Curated News in Health Economics, Investing, Business, Management and Financial Planning for Physician Entrepreneurs and their Savvy Advisors and Consultants
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One more group of stocks that soared on a Trump election: Big Tech companies with antitrust problems. Another Trump presidency should go a long way toward clearing up the regulatory hurdles many companies have faced recently, which is why Alphabet popped 3.99% and Amazon rose 3.8%.
CVS Health surged 11.33% after meeting revenue forecasts but missing earnings expectations. However, the miss was due to a one-time charge, so shareholders quickly forgave the healthcare retailer.
Planet Fitness gained 6.09% on a surprise bid for bankrupt fitness chain Blink Holdings in an attempt to bolster its own gym business.
Stocks Down
Super Micro Computer had a chance to show the world it wasn’t committing the fraud it has recently been accused of. Instead, the company announced it is still unable to determine when it will file the quarterly report due August 29. Shares crashed 18.05%.
Home builder stocks sank on fears that a Trump presidency will slow the rate of Fed rate cuts, keeping mortgage rates higher for longer. DR Horton fell 3.8%, Lennar dropped 4.84%, PulteGroup lost 3.09%, and TollBrothers tumbled 1.46%.
Cannabis stocks were betting big on a ballot measure in Florida to allow the sale of recreational marijuana. The initiative’s failure sent shares of Curaleaf plummeting 29.17%, TrulieveCannabis plunged 38.8%, and AyrWellness sank 55.87%.
The S&P 500®index (SPX) rose 146.28 points (2.53%) to 5,929.04; the Dow Jones Industrial Average® ($DJI) added 1,508.05 points (3.57%) to 43,729.93; and the NASDAQ Composite®($COMP) gained 544.29 points (2.95%) to 18,983.47—a new closing high.
The 10-year Treasury note yield (TNX) surged 14 basis points to 4.43%, its highest level since July.
The CBOE Volatility Index® (VIX) fell sharply to 16.3 as election-related uncertainty diminished.
Similar in ways to the availability heuristic (Tversky & Kahneman, 1974) and to some extent, the false consensus effect, once you (truly) understand a new piece of information, that piece of information is now available to you and often becomes seemingly obvious. It might be easy to forget that there was ever a time you didn’t know this information and so, you assume that others, like yourself, also know this information: the curse of knowledge.
However, according to colleague Dan Ariely PhD, it is often an unfair assumption that others share the same knowledge. The hindsight bias is similar to the curse of knowledge in that once we have information about an event, it then seems obvious that it was going to happen all along.
I should have seen it [divorce, stock market crash/soar my smoking & lung cancer, unemployment, etc] coming!
Stocks just roared out of the gate this Wednesday morning following news that former President Donald Trump has secured a second term in the White House and Republicans won a majority in the Senate.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 1,341 points, or about 3.1 percent, as the market opened, reaching a record high. It was the first time it has jumped more than 1,000 points in a single day since November 2022.
The S&P 500 also gained 1.9 percent, and the NASDAQ climbed 1.8 percent.
Despite concern from big business about Trump’s plan to impose blanket tariffs on imports to the U.S., Wall Street is anticipating tax cuts and deregulation during a second Trump presidency.
Retained Earnings Risk: Profits generated by a company that are not distributed to stockholders as dividends. Instead, they are either reinvested in the business or kept as a reserve for specific objectives, such as paying off debt or purchasing equipment. Retained earnings risks are also called “undistributed profits,” “undistributed earnings,” or “earned surplus.”
Risk-Weighted (or risk-adjusted) Assets: Within the context of measuring the financial stability of banks and other financial institutions, the risk-weighted assets figure is an aggregate of a financial institution’s assets (usually loans to its customers) after the loans have been individually adjusted for their risk. This involves multiplying each loan by a factor that reflects its risk. Low-risk loans are multiplied by a low number, high-risk by high. The aggregate number can then be used to calculate the financial institution’s capital ratio. Lower risk-weighted assets typically result in higher capital ratios, and higher risk-weighted assets usually translate to lower capital ratios.
Sequence-of-Returns Risk: The risk of market conditions impacting the overall returns of an investment portfolio during the period when a retiree is first starting to withdrawal money from investments as income. For example, if a retiree has to withdrawal income from his or her portfolio when market prices are depressed, the portfolio may lose out on the potential returns that income could have made once market prices recovered.
In what some are calling the next iteration of the internet, the metaverse is an unfamiliar digital world where you could be an avatar navigating computer-generated places and interacting with others in real time. In this space, the constraints of our physical, bricks and mortar world and travel habits fade. And new opportunities and challenges emerge.
Google in healthcare: The search giant has repeatedly successfully transferred its in-depth knowledge of algorithms in the field of medicine, particularly since it acquired DeepMind.
Apple in healthcare: Apple will keep on working on expanding the health features of its devices, Apple Watch and iPhones included.
Microsoft in healthcare: Microsoft’s cloud solutions provide integrated capabilities that make it easier to improve the healthcare experience.
Amazon in healthcare: Amazon will make further use of its vast knowledge of online shopping trends and behavior and will keep on providing what people need, from medicine to wearables.
IBM in healthcare: IBM has a lot to offer in federated learning, blockchain, and quantum computing.
Nvidia in healthcare: NVIDIA seems incredibly focused on its approach to healthcare. We can expect NVIDIA to be a leader in the use of artificial intelligence in healthcare.
Facebook in healthcare: The Metaverse developed by Facebook/Meta has incredible potential to revolutionize healthcare.
All this technology has huge potential because it uses both virtual reality (VR) and augmented reality (AR) technology to work in virtual spaces: All signs point to the metaverse being widely used as a disruptive change in healthcare, from better surgical precision to therapeutic uses to social-distance accommodations and more.
But along with these improvements come new problems that will change what we know about modern healthcare. The metaverse is a paradigm shift in healthcare that everyone involved needs to be aware of. This is because it changes how medical infrastructure is built, how startup costs are covered, and how data security and privacy are handled.
Classic: Investment purchases and private expenditures of healthcare firms, the value of related construction, and the change in inventory during the year.
Modern: Gross Revenue Per Day is the average amount charged by a hospital for one day of inpatient care (gross inpatient revenue divided by patient-census days).
Gross Revenue Per Discharge: The average amount charged by a hospital to treat an inpatient from admission to discharge (gross inpatient revenue divided by discharges).
Gross Revenue Per Visit: The average amount charged by a hospital for an outpatient visit (gross outpatient revenue divided by outpatient visits).
Posted on November 5, 2024 by Dr. David Edward Marcinko MBA MEd CMP™
By Staff Reporters
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After its AI-related earnings disappointed Wall Street last quarter, Big Tech doubled down in the latest period:
Amazon spent $22.6 billion on property and equipment like data centers and chips. That’s an 81% spike from the same time last year.
Meta raised its low-end guidance for capex (capital expenditures), which could reach $40 billion by the end of the year. It beat earnings estimates, even with AR glasses subsidiary Reality Labs costing $4.4 billion in operating losses.
Apple is still betting on Apple Intelligence to boost sales. Most revenue came from the new iPhone 16, Apple Watch, and AirPods, but Apple services like TV+ and iCloud also grew massively to account for a quarter of the business.
Google crushed earnings estimates and revealed that more than 25% of all new code it writes is generated by AI (and reviewed by engineers).
Named for a U.S. economist, the JB Taylor Rule is a mathematical monetary-policy formula that recommends how much a central bank should change its nominal short-term interest rate target (such as the U.S. Federal Reserve’s federal funds rate target) in response to changes in economic conditions, particularly inflation and economic growth. It’s typically viewed as guideline for raising short-term interest rates as inflation and potentially inflationary pressures increase. The rule recommends a relatively high interest rate (“tight” monetary policy) when inflation is above its target or when the economy is above its full employment level, and a relatively low interest rate (“easy” monetary policy) under the opposite conditions.
To illustrate, the monetary policy of the FOMC, changed throughout the 20th century. The period between the 1960s and the 1970s is evaluated by Taylor and others as a period of poor monetary policy; the later years typically characterized as stagflation. The inflation rate was high and increasing, while interest rates were kept low. Since the mid-1970s monetary targets have been used in many countries as a means to target inflation.
However, in the 2000s the actual interest rate in advanced economics, notably in the US, was kept below the value suggested by the Taylor rule.
R-squared is an investment portfolio performance and risk measure that indicates how much of a portfolio’s performance fluctuations were attributable to movements in the portfolio’s benchmark index. R-squared can range from 0-100%.
IOW: R Squared, also known as the coefficient of determination, is a statistical measure used in the context of regression analysis. It represents the proportion of the variance in the dependent variable that is predictable from the independent variable(s). Essentially, it provides a measure of how well the observed outcomes are replicated by the model, based on the proportion of total variation of outcomes explained by the mode
For example, an R-squared of 100% indicates that all portfolio performance movements were attributable to movements in the benchmark index—they correlate perfectly to the benchmark.
Conversely, an r-squared of 0% indicates that there is no correlation between the performance movements of the portfolio and the benchmark.
The Physicians Foundation conducted a survey on physician practice patterns and perspectives a few years ago. Here are some key findings from the report:
• 31% of physicians identify as independent practice owners or partners. • Almost half (47%) of physicians plan to change career paths. • 78% of physicians sometimes, often or always experience feelings of burnout. • Nearly a quarter of physician time is spent on non-clinical paperwork.
HFRI: Fund of Funds invests with multiple managers through funds or managed accounts. The strategy designs a diversified portfolio of managers with the objective of significantly lowering the risk (volatility) of investing with an individual manager.
The Fund of Funds manager may allocate funds to numerous managers within a single strategy, or with numerous managers in multiple strategies. The investor has the advantage of diversification among managers and styles with significantly less capital than investing with separate managers.
Posted on November 3, 2024 by Dr. David Edward Marcinko MBA MEd CMP™
By Health Capital Consultants, LLC
Two recent court actions may serve as harbingers for the future of healthcare fraud and abuse laws. In September 2024, a federal judge in the Southern District of West Virginia ordered parties in a qui tamFalse Claims Act and Stark Law case to brief the court on the implications of Loper Bright Enterprises v. Raimondo on the interpretation of the Stark Law to the case at hand.
That same month, a federal judge in the Middle District of Florida dismissed a qui tam lawsuit on a novel theory that the False Claims Act’s whistleblower provisions are unconstitutional.
This Health Capital Topics article discusses these cases and the potential impact on federal fraud and abuse laws. (Read more…)
In-network refers to a health care provider that has a contract with your health plan to provide health care services to its plan members at a pre-negotiated rate. Because of this relationship, you pay a lower cost-sharing when you receive services from an in-network doctor.
What does out-of-network mean?
Out-of-network refers to a health care provider who does not have a contract with your health insurance plan. If you use an out-of-network provider, health care services could cost more since the provider doesn’t have a pre-negotiated rate with your health plan. Or, depending on your health plan, the health care services may not be covered at all.
Classic: Any medical provider, supplier or facility that is in-network is one that has contracted with your health insurer to provide services;as above.
Modern: Depending on your plan, if you visit an out-of-network provider, it may not be covered or might be only partially covered. When making appointments with various doctors and service providers, you may notice some are listed as “in-network” while others are “out-of-network.”
THINK: Medicare Advantage {Part C] Plans
Example: You can expect a higher deductible and out-of-pocket limit at out-of-network providers. Your coinsurance and co-payment may also be higher for out-of-network providers.
STRIPS (Separate Trading of Registered Interest and Principal of Securities) is an acronym that describes both a government bond issuance program and the securities issued by the program. STRIPS are a form of zero-coupon security (defined below) created under the U.S. Treasury’s STRIPS program.
Originally, zero-coupon securities were created by broker-dealers who bought Treasury bonds and deposited these securities with a custodian bank. The broker-dealers then sold receipts representing ownership interests in the coupons or principal portions of the bonds.
Some examples of zero-coupon securities sold through custodial receipt programs are CATS (Certificates of Accrual on Treasury Securities), TIGRs (Treasury Investment Growth Receipts) and generic TRs (Treasury Receipts). The U.S. Treasury subsequently introduced a program called Separate Trading of Registered Interest and Principal of Securities (STRIPS), through which it exchanges eligible securities for their component parts and then allows the component parts to trade in book-entry form.
STRIPS are direct obligations of the U.S. government and have the same credit risks as other U.S. Treasury securities. STRIPS are generally considered the most liquid (easily bought and sold) zero-coupon securities.
Classic Definition: Employers write checks that cover most health insurance premiums for employees and their dependents. But as the late Princeton health economist Uwe Reinhardt PhD once explained, employer-sponsored insurance is like a pickpocket taking money out of your wallet at a bar and buying you a drink. You appreciate the cocktail until you realize you paid for it yourself.
Modern Circumstance: With health coverage, employers write the check to the insurer, but employees bear the cost of the premium — the entire premium, not just the portion listed as their contribution on their pay stub. The premium money that goes to the insurance company is cash that employers would otherwise deposit in employees’ accounts like the rest of their salary.
Paradox Example: The fallacy paradox is in thinking an employer’s contribution comes out of profits. In fact, higher health insurance premiums mean lower wages for workers. Since 1999, health insurance premiums have increased 147 percent and employer profits have increased 148 percent. But in that time, average wages have hardly moved, increasing just 7 percent. Clearly workers’ wages, not corporate profits, have been paying for higher health insurance premiums. Health care costs are one — though not the only — reason wages have stagnated over the last few decades. With health insurance costs rising faster than growth in the economy, more labor costs go to benefits like health insurance and less to take-home pay. Yet the paradox that employees don’t pay for their own health insurance is widespread:
The first reason is that individuals cannot be sure what causes their wages to change or remain stagnant for decades.
The second reason is that employers want Americans to believe that they pay for their workers’ health insurance.
The third reason is that there are those who profit from the employment-based system: drug companies, device manufacturers, specialty physicians and high-income individuals.
And so, they all want you to believe companies are being magnanimous in giving you insurance, but they are not!
What Is CREDIT? Credit is a contractual agreement in which a borrower receives a sum of money or something else of value and commits to repaying the lender later, typically with interest. Credit is also the creditworthiness or credit history of an individual or a company. Good credit tells lenders you have a history of reliably repaying what you owe on loans. Establishing good credit is essential to getting a loan.
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Credit Analysis is a form of financial analysis used primarily to determine the financial strength of the issuer of a security, and the ability of that issuer to provide timely payment of interest and principal to investors in the issuer’s debt securities. Credit analysis is typically an important component of security analysis and selection in credit-sensitive bond sectors such as the corporate bond market and the municipal bond market.
Credit Default Swap Index (CDX) is a credit derivative, based on a basket of CDS, which can be used to hedge credit risk or speculate on changes in credit quality.
Credit Default Swaps (CDS) are credit derivative contracts between two counter parties that can be used to hedge credit risk or speculate on changes in the credit quality of a corporation or government entity.
Credit Quality reflects the financial strength of the issuer of a security, and the ability of that issuer to provide timely payment of interest and principal to investors in the issuer’s securities. Common measurements of credit quality include the credit ratings provided by credit rating agencies such as Standard & Poor’s and Moody’s. Credit quality and credit quality perceptions are a key component of the daily market pricing of fixed-income securities, along with maturity, inflation expectations and interest rate levels.
Credit Rating Agency (CRA) is a company that assigns credit ratings for issuers of certain types of debt obligations as well as the debt instruments themselves. In the United States, the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) permits investment banks and broker-dealers to use credit ratings from “Nationally Recognized Statistical Rating Organizations” (NRSRO) for similar purposes. As of January 2012, nine organizations were designated as NRSROs, including the “Big Three” which are Standard and Poor’s, Moody’s Investor Services and Fitch Ratings.
A Credit Rating Downgrade by a credit rating agency (such as Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s or Fitch), of reducing its credit rating for a debt issuer and/or security. This is based on the agency’s evaluation, indicating, to the agency, a decline in the issuer’s financial stability, increasing the possibility of default (defined below). A downgrade should not to be confused with a default; a debt security can be downgraded without defaulting. (And, conversely, a debt issuer can suddenly default without being downgraded first–credit ratings and credit rating agencies are not infallible.)
Credit Ratings are measurements of credit quality provided by credit rating agencies). Those provided by Standard & Poor’s typically are the most widely quoted and distributed, and range from AAA (highest quality; perceived as least likely to default) down to D (in default). Securities and issuers rated AAA to BBB are considered/perceived to be “investment-grade”; those below BBB are considered/perceived to be non-investment-grade or more speculative.
Credit Risk is the risk that the inability or perceived inability of the issuers of debt securities to make interest and principal payments will cause the value of those securities to decrease. Changes in the credit ratings of debt securities could have a similar effect.
Credit Risk Transfer Securities (CRTS) are the unsecured obligations of the GSEs (Government Sponsored Enterprises). Although cash flows are linked to prepays and defaults of the reference mortgage loans, the securities are unsecured loans, backed by general credit rather than by specified assets.
Investors waited for the Magnificent 7 stock reports to begin rolling last evening. The NASDAQ rose to a new high on optimism while the Dow Jones fell, and the S&P 500 split the difference.
Alphabet announced earnings after the bell yesterday, Microsoft and MetaPlatforms reveal their latest quarters today, Amazon and Apple on Thursday afternoon.
The 10-year Treasury yield hit a 4-month high this afternoon before paring back a bit as traders struggle to find a signal in all the market noise.
Oil rebounded a bit from yesterday’s terrible day, though it still ended the trading session lower.
Ever tried making a decision when you’re angry or excited? According to colleague Dan Ariely PhD, that’s a hot state – when emotions run high and logic takes a backseat. It’s like trying to think clearly in the middle of a storm.
Be you a doctor, CPA, attorney, engineer, husband, wife, parent, teacher or all others. In a hot state, we’re impulsive, making choices we might regret later. It’s why cooling off before making big decisions is always a good idea.
So, when your emotions are boiling over, take a step back, breathe, and wait for the storm to pass. You’ll make better choices when you’re in a calm, cool state.
It is a multi-factor model measures the overall risk associated with a security relative to the market. And, it incorporates over 40 data metrics, including earnings growth, share turnover and senior debt rating.
The five most valuable US companies in the S&P 500 report earnings this week, and updates on three key economic indicators are set to be released: 1. gross domestic product, 2. inflation, and 3. jobs report. Then, next week brings the election and another expected rate cut from the Federal Reserve.
Markets:All three stock indexes rose to start a week that will be filled with high-stakes data.
Stock spotlight: Trump Media & Technology Group gained almost 22% on Monday, following the former president and current GOP candidate’s Madison Square Garden rally. The rose means that Trump Media, which includes Truth Social, is now more valuable than Elon Musk’s X.
Russell 1000® Growth Index: Measures the performance of those Russell 1000 Index companies (the 1,000 largest publicly traded U.S. companies, based on total market capitalization) with higher price-to-book ratios and higher forecasted growth values.
Russell 1000® Index: A market-capitalization weighted, large-cap index created by Frank Russell Company to measure the performance of the 1,000 largest publicly traded U.S. companies, based on total market capitalization.
Russell 1000® Value Index: Measures the performance of those Russell 1000 Index companies (the 1,000 largest publicly traded U.S. companies, based on total market capitalization) with lower price-to-book ratios and lower forecasted growth values.
Russell 2000® Growth Index: Measures the performance of those Russell 2000 Index companies (the 2,000 smallest of the 3,000 largest publicly traded U.S. companies, based on total market capitalization) with higher price-to-book ratios and higher forecasted growth values.
Russell 2000® Index: Market-capitalization weighted index created by Frank Russell Company to measure the performance of the 2,000 smallest of the 3,000 largest publicly traded U.S. companies, based on total market capitalization.
Russell 2000® Value Index: Measures the performance of those Russell 2000 Index companies (the 2,000 smallest of the 3,000 largest publicly traded U.S. companies, based on total market capitalization) with lower price-to-book ratios and lower forecasted growth values.
Russell 2500™ Growth Index: Measures the performance of those Russell 2500 Index companies (the 2,500 smallest of the 3,000 largest publicly traded U.S. companies, based on total market capitalization) with higher price-to-book ratios and higher forecasted growth values.
Russell 2500™ Index: A market-capitalization weighted index created by Frank Russell Company to measure the performance of the 2,500 smallest of the 3,000 largest publicly traded U.S. companies, based on total market capitalization.
Russell 2500™ Value Index: Measures the performance of those Russell 2500 Index companies (the 2,500 smallest of the 3,000 largest publicly traded U.S. companies, based on total market capitalization) with lower price-to-book ratios and lower forecasted growth values.
Russell 3000® Growth Index: Measures the performance of the broad growth segment of the U.S. equity universe. It includes those Russell 3000 companies with higher price-to-book ratios and higher forecasted growth values.
Russell 3000® Index: Measures the performance of the largest 3,000 U.S. companies representing approximately 98% of the investable U.S. equity market.
Russell 3000® Utilities Index: A sub-index of the Russell 3000 Index, is a capitalization weighted index of companies in industries heavily affected by government regulation, including among others, basic public service providers (electricity, gas and water), telecommunication services, and oil and gas companies.
Russell 3000® Value Index: Measures the performance of the broad value segment of the U.S. equity universe. It includes those Russell 3000 companies with lower price-to-book ratios and lower forecasted growth values.
Russell Midcap® Growth Index: Measures the performance of those Russell Midcap Index companies (the 800 smallest of the 1,000 largest publicly traded U.S. companies, based on total market capitalization) with higher price-to-book ratios and higher forecasted growth values.
Russell Midcap® Index: Measures the performance of the 800 smallest of the 1,000 largest publicly traded U.S. companies, based on total market capitalization.
Russell Midcap® Value Index: Measures the performance of those Russell Midcap Index companies (the 800 smallest of the 1,000 largest publicly traded U.S. companies, based on total market capitalization) with lower price-to-book ratios and lower forecasted growth values.
Russell Top 200® Index: Measures the performance of the 200 largest securities of the 3,000 publicly traded U.S. companies in the Russell 3000® Index, based on total market capitalization. It is not an investment product available for purchase.
Posted on October 29, 2024 by Dr. David Edward Marcinko MBA MEd CMP™
MEDICAL EXECUTIVE-POST–TODAY’SNEWSLETTERBRIEFING
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Essays, Opinions and Curated News in Health Economics, Investing, Business, Management and Financial Planning for Physician Entrepreneurs and their Savvy Advisors and Consultants
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Healthcare’s future as HSBC Innovation Banking collaborated with LINUS and HLTH to help prepare the healthcare ecosystem for the future. The Health 2035 report goes in depth with discussions between visionaries in the ecosystem and studies of young physicians’ forecasts for what the state of care will be in the year 2035. Download the report.
Trump Media & Technology Group soared 21.59% following a major rally at Madison Square Garden, an appearance on Joe Rogan’s podcast, and rising chances of winning the election. Fun fact: After this latest stock surge, Trump Media is now worth almost as much as social media network X.
Nio surged 10.46% thanks to an upgrade from Macquerie, whose analysts believe that the EV startup could see strong growth from new vehicle launches next year.
Spotify has earned a spot on Wells Fargo’s top pick playlist, with analysts confident the stock could rise over 20%. Shares rose 1.27%.
Lower oil prices hurt energy stock, but are a big boost for companies that spend a lot on fuel. CarnivalCorp rose 4.83%, RoyalCaribbeanCruises climbed 1.35%, and AmericanAirlines popped 3.42%.
Stocks Down
Philips floundered 15.95% after the Dutch consumer goods manufacturer missed on earnings and lowered its full-year forecast.
Boeing continued to fall yet another 2.79%, this time on the news that it is raising $19 billion through a stock offering in the hopes that it fends off a credit rating downgrade.
Oil stocks took a beating thanks to a big decline for crude prices. DiamondbackEnergy fell 3.36%, APACorp. dropped 4.51%, ExxonMobil sank 0.49%, and BP lost 1.48%.
The S&P 500® index (SPX)rose15.40points (0.27%) to 5,823.52; the Dow Jones Industrial Average® ($DJI) added 273.17 points (0.65%) to 42,387.57; and the NASDAQ Composite® ($COMP) gained 48.58 points (0.26%) to 18,567.19.
The 10-year Treasury note yield (TNX) climbed six basis points to 4.29%, the highest close since July 9.
Posted on October 28, 2024 by Dr. David Edward Marcinko MBA MEd CMP™
By Staff Reporters
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Peak earnings season: Five of the Magnificent SevenStocks will be among the 181 companies reporting their earnings this week. Alphabet is in the Mag Seven lead-off spot on Tuesday, Microsoft and Meta step to the plate on Wednesday, and Apple and Amazon rounding out the lineup and this baseball metaphor on Thursday. These companies account for almost 25% of the S&P 500, which is up 40% over the past year and not far off its record closing number from earlier this month. But, the approaching election, it could be a volatile week in the stock markets.
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Markets: Stocks are currently driving the narrative on Wall Street. Last week, bonds sold off in a big way (driving yields to their highest level since July) in a sign investors are dialing back expectations of more aggressive rate cuts from the Federal Reserve.
Stocks nevertheless handled the bond volatility with aplomb, and with help from Tesla’s 22% one-day rise, the NASDAQ is sitting within 2% of its record high.
A defined benefit (DB) pension plan is a type of pension plan in which an employer/sponsor promises a specified pension payment, lump-sum or combination thereof on retirement that is predetermined by a formula based on the employee’s earnings history, tenure of service and age, rather than depending directly on individual investment returns.
Traditionally, many governmental and public entities, as well as a large number of corporations, provide defined benefit plans, sometimes as a means of compensating workers in lieu of increased pay.
CITE: Wikipedia
Defined Contribution Pension Plan
A defined contribution (DC) plan is a type of retirement plan in which the employer, employee or both make contributions on a regular basis. Individual accounts are set up for participants and benefits are based on the amounts credited to these accounts (through employee contributions and, if applicable, employer contributions) plus any investment earnings on the money in the account. In defined contribution plans, future benefits fluctuate on the basis of investment earnings.
The most common type of defined contribution plan is a savings and thrift plan. Under this type of plan, the employee contributes a predetermined portion of his or her earnings (usually pretax) to an individual account, all or part of which is matched by the employer.
Posted on October 27, 2024 by Dr. David Edward Marcinko MBA MEd CMP™
By Vitaliy Katenselson CFA
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Today, we’re diving into two thought-provoking questions:
1. What’s a famous investment rule I don’t agree with? 2. Which key characteristics should a good investor have?
1. A Famous Investment Rule I Don’t Agree With: “Buy and Hold”
Buy and hold becomes a religion during bull markets. Then, holding a stock because you bought it is often rewarded through higher and higher valuations. There’s a Pavlovian bull market reinforcement – every time you don’t sell (hold) a stock, it goes higher.
Buying is a decision. So is holding, but it should not be a religion but a decision. The value of any company is the present value of its cash flows. When the present value of cash flows (per share) is less than the price of the stock, the stock should not be “held” but sold.
WarrenBuffett is looked upon as the deity of buy and hold.
Look at Coca Cola when it hit $40 in 1999. Its earnings power at the time was about $0.80. It was trading at 50 times earnings. It was significantly overvalued, considering that most of the growth for this company was in the past.
Fast-forward almost a quarter of a century – literally a generation. Today the stock is at $60. It took more than a decade to reclaim its 1999 high. Today, Coke’s earnings power is around $1.50–1.90. Earnings have stagnated for over a decade. If you did not sell the stock in 1999, you collected some dividends, not a lot but some. The stock is still trading at 30–40x earnings. Unless they discover that Coke cures diabetes (not causes it), its earnings will not move much. It’s a mature business with significant health headwinds against it.
“Long-term” and “buy-and-hold” investing are often confused.
People should not own stocks unless they have a long-term time horizon. Long-term investing is an attitude, an analytical approach. When you build a discounted cash flow model, you are looking decades ahead. However, this doesn’t mean that you should stop analyzing the company’s valuation and fundamentals after you buy the stock, as they may change and affect your expected return. After you put in a lot of analytical work and buy the stock, you should not simply switch off your brain and become a mindless buy-and-hold investor.
This doesn’t mean you shouldn’t be patient, which I’ll discuss next; but holding, not selling, a stock is a decision.
2. Key Characteristics of a Good Investor
I’m going to sound a bit more preachy than usual, but it’s very difficult to answer this question in any other way.
You need three Ps – passion, patience, process.
Passion
Investing is not a 9-to-5 job; it’s a 24/7 adventure. Unlike flipping burgers or processing insurance claims, where you can clock in at 9 AM, fall into a stupor, and then reawaken at 5 PM when you clock out.
This should be your test: If you catch yourself treating investing as a 9-to-5 job, then you have little passion for it.
If this is the case, don’t do it (this probably applies to any choice of a profession). You don’t stand a chance against people for whom investing is a never-ending puzzle to be solved on their life’s journey. All of my investment friends are dripping with passion for investing; they are obsessed with it. None of them are in it only for the money.
You won’t last long in this profession if you’re not passionate about stocks. Patience
Investing is like real life – the connection between effort and result is nonlinear. It is very loose.
You may be making all of the right rational decisions: You are buying stocks that lie within your EQ/IQ spectrum, and they are significantly undervalued, but the market simply doesn’t care. It just keeps sending your stocks down. To make things even more frustrating, while your stocks are declining, speculators who treat the stock market as a craps table at Caesars Palace are killing it, making money hand over fist. It’s painful. It is excruciatingly painful if you have the wrong client base.
This is where patience comes in. My father told me this story, which happened right before I was born.
My family lived in Murmansk, a city 125 miles north of the Arctic Circle in northwest Russia. My mom went to give birth to my brothers and me in Saratov, a city in central Russia, about 1200 miles from Murmansk. She wanted to be closer to her parents. My father could not leave work, so he stayed in Murmansk.
A few weeks before I was born, he went to visit his best friend, Alexander. He told him that he was worried about my mom and the birth. His friend told him something that I remember to this day (with a chuckle): “Naum, you did your part; you cannot go back and correct what you did. Now you just have to wait.”
Investing is patience punctuated by decisions.
As the French mathematician Blaise Pascal said, “All of humanity’s problems stem from man’s inability to sit quietly in a room alone.”
One more thought here: I try to take the temperature of my emotions and the mental activity of my brain. When I find myself overheating, with the stock market occupying my entire brain, I forcibly disconnect and unplug myself from it. The quality of my thoughts and decisions when my brain is overheating is likely to be low. So, I go for a walk in the park, read a fiction book, go see a movie, or visit an art museum. Process
Managing someone else’s money is an incredible responsibility, which you may not fully appreciate during bull markets. But sideways and bear markets will remind you quickly.
I don’t want to over-glorify what we do – we are not curing cancer or saving people from burning buildings. But IMA clients entrust us with their life savings and tell me, “Vitaliy, please don’t screw it up.”
My decisions may determine whether our clients get to retire, pay for their medical expenses, or help their kids buy houses.
Staying rational when the world around you is melting up with greed or melting down in fear isn’t a capacity that one accidentally stumbles upon. You engineer it through a series of small, repeatable decisions – your investment process.
A young clinician representative advising to consider the cost versus value of medicine. Health care concept for economic cost-effectiveness analysis, driving down medical costs, improved access.
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Value Based CareClassic Definition: Value-based care is a type of payment model that pays doctors and hospitals for treating patients in the right place, at the right time and with just the right amount of care. You can look at it as a financial incentive to motivate healthcare providers to meet specific performance measures related to the quality and efficiency of the process. The same way, it penalizes weaker experiences, such as medical errors. The concept is often counter-intuitive.
Modern Circumstance: As healthcare costs continue to rise, value-based care has been growing in popularity compared to the traditional fee-for-service method.
Think: HMOs, PPOs, capitation payments and Medicare Advantage [Part C].
Paradox Examples:
Payment: A physician paid through fee-for-service compensation might like to see a packed medical office waiting room. More patients and services equate to higher pay. But, the same doctor paid through a VBC contract might wish to see an emptier waiting room as s/he will get the exact same daily pay for seeing fewer patients and working much less.
Prospectivity: Traditional Fee-for-Service medicine treats sick patients. VBC medicine seeks to keep patients healthy and out of the doctor’s office.
Posted on October 25, 2024 by Dr. David Edward Marcinko MBA MEd CMP™
The Mount Carmel Health System
By Mark Matthews MD
A “Scrubbed” True Illustration
One of the earliest healthcare adopters of Six Sigma was the Mount Carmel Health System in Columbus, Ohio.
The organization was barely breaking even in the summer of 2021 when competition from surrounding providers made things worse. Employee layoffs added fuel to an already all-time low employee morale.
The CEO
The Chief Executive Officer was determined to stem the bleeding, break the cycle of poor financial performance and return the hospital system to profitability. He sought the potential benefits of Six Sigma and began a full deployment of its methodology. The plan was a bold move, as the organization ensured that no one would be terminated as a result of a Six Sigma project having eliminated his or her previous duties. These employees would be offered an alternative position in a different department. Moreover, top personnel were asked to leave their current positions to be trained and work full time as Six Sigma expert practitioners who would oversee project deployment while their positions were back filled.
Assessment
The Six Sigma deployment was the right decision. More than 50 projects were initiated with significant success. An example of an early Mount Carmel success story is the dramatic improvement in their Medicare Part C product reimbursements, previously written off as uncollectible accounts. These accounts were often denied by HCFA due to coding of those patients as “working aged.”
Since the treatment process status often changed in these patients, HCFA often rejected claims or lessened reimbursement amounts, effectively making coding a difficult and elusive problem. The employment of the Six Sigma process fixed the problem, resulting in a real gain of $857,000 to the organization. The spillover of this methodology to other coding parameters also has dramatically boosted revenue collection.
Your thoughts and comments on this ME-P are appreciated. Feel free to review our top-left column, and top-right sidebar materials, links, URLs and related websites, too. Then, subscribe to the ME-P. It is fast, free and secure.
Speaker:If you need a moderator or speaker for an upcoming event, Dr. David E. Marcinko; MBA – Publisher-in-Chief of the Medical Executive-Post – is available for seminar or speaking engagements. Contact: MarcinkoAdvisors@msn.com
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Posted on October 23, 2024 by Dr. David Edward Marcinko MBA MEd CMP™
How would you restart your career in medicine?
[By Dr. David Edward Marcinko MBA MEd CMP™]
We’ve known this physician-client-friend for 10 years, and while he didn’t tell us what he wanted to discuss, we knew it was important.
After exchanging pleasantries, he shocked me: He said he’s totally unfulfilled in his current job and wants to do something new.
We were floored because he is an outstanding doctor – at the top of his game. From the outside looking in, he appears to be “living the dream”.
After that bombshell, we asked him the question we couldn’t get out of our mind: “Are you afraid?”
“Yes,” he said; “Afraid and relieved.”
His relief stemmed from the fact that he is going to shed the tremendous demands of being a doctor at the highest levels. He was afraid because he didn’t know what was next.
We thought afterward, “What a courageous and totally refreshing move.”
A Fantasy Reboot
That dialogue triggered a larger internal conversation within; and with others.
What would you do if you could start from scratch?
How would you proceed if you could just wipe the slate clean and restart your career in medicine?
For those quietly pondering a similar path, three great opportunities seem crystal clear.
First, we would create our own practice playbook. Discard the ready-made choices served up by your old practice. For the independent physician today, there’s almost infinite variety. The pleasure in creating your own approach is that there are so many options. Your patients will appreciate the greater choice and flexibility, too.
Second, we would whole-heartedly embrace technology; but not necessarily EHRs at this time. Rather, build your own HIT framework to complement your medical practice. Innovate across your entire operations – everything from medical records, to online appointment access, secure FAX machines, to patient portals and laboratory results reporting to your own mobile phone app. Freeing yourself from your current archaic technology will be life altering by itself.
Third, cull the difficult people from your life. These are the naysayers who weigh you down – superiors, colleagues or patients. Negativity is corrosive, and it always lingers. It also distracts you from giving others your best. While you’re at it, cull the skills you mastered to survive in your career so you can focus on those that really matter.
Case Model
So, we wanted to share one of the all-time greatest reboots we know because it shows what is possible if you believe in yourself.
A decade ago, one of our osteopathic physician clients delivered some bad news. She was quitting her job as a medical associate, to transition into her own direct pay concierge practice.
At the time, this was unheard of: No one walked away from a potential medical practice partnership to become a solo physician. But, Sue had a different vision. She wasn’t fulfilled and she knew it. With the support of her husband, she decided there was a better way. So she started from scratch.
How did it work out?
Unbelievably well – but NOT overnight!
With our meager assistance, Sue’s been cash flow positive for the last 7 years, and now earns more money than before, with less stress; and she is the captain of her ship. A few colleagues who have worked with her have even gone on to achieve comparable success. She’s become a role model to others too, and she remains one our heroes.
The Decision
Starting from scratch may or may not translate into more money, but it often means this: More happiness in your life. Sue’s decision, just like our friend who bared his soul to us over coffee, were both made for the right reasons.
We wish our friend well on his journey, confident knowing that a happy ending is just over the horizon for him, too.
Assessment
Send us your own success/failure story, so we might learn from you. Would you even stay in medicine or transition/begin another career; anew?
Conclusion
Your thoughts and comments on this ME-P are appreciated. Feel free to review our top-left column, and top-right sidebar materials, links, URLs and related websites, too. Then, subscribe to the ME-P. It is fast, free and secure.
Speaker: If you need a moderator or speaker for an upcoming event, Dr. David E. Marcinko; MBA – Publisher-in-Chief of the Medical Executive-Post – is available for seminar or speaking engagements. Contact: MarcinkoAdvisors@msn.com
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Posted on October 22, 2024 by Dr. David Edward Marcinko MBA MEd CMP™
COGNITIVE BIASES
By Staff Reporters
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According to colleague Dan Ariely PhD,anchoring is the mental trick your brain plays when it latches onto the first piece of information it gets, no matter how irrelevant. You might know this as ‘ first impressions ’ – when someone relies on their own first idea of a person or situation.
Imagine you’re buying a car, and the salesperson starts with a high price. That number sticks in your mind and influences all your subsequent negotiations. Anchoring can skew our decisions and perceptions, making us think the first offer is more important than it is. Or, subsequent offers lower than they really are.
So, the next time you’re haggling or making a big decision, be aware of that initial anchor dragging you down.
PRUDENT BUYER: The efficient purchaser of market balance between value and cost.
PRUDENT MAN RULE: An 1830 court case stating that a person in a fiduciary capacity (a trustee, executor, custodian, etc) must conduct him/herself faithfully and exercise sound judgment when investing monies under care. “He is to observe how men of prudence, discretion and intelligence manage their own affairs, not in regard to speculation, but in regard to the permanent distribution of their funds, considering the probable income as well as the probable safety of the capital to be invested.” Allows for mutual funds and variable annuities.
PRUDENT INVESTOR RULE: A fiduciary is required to conduct him/herself faithfully and exercise sound judgment when investing monies and take measured and reasonable investment risks in return for potential future rewards. Allows for mutual funds, stocks, bonds, variable annuities asset allocation & Modern Portfolio Theory.
Although some might view a budget as unnecessarily restrictive, sticking to a spending plan can be a useful tool in enhancing the wealth of a medical practice. So, I will emphasize keys to smart budgeting and how to track spending and savings in these tough economic times.
There is an aphorism that suggests, “Money cannot buy happiness.” Well, this may be true enough but there is also a corollary that states, “Having a little sure reduces the unhappiness.”
Unfortunately, today there is more than a little financial unhappiness in all medical specialties. The challenges range from the commoditization of medicine, aging demographics, Medicare reimbursement cutbacks and increased competition to floundering equity markets, the home mortgage crisis, the squeeze on credit and declines in the value of a practice. Few doctors seem immune to this “perfect storm” of economic woes.
Far too many physicians are hurting and it is not limited to above-average earning professionals. However, one can strive to reduce the pain by following some basic budgeting principles. By adhering to these principles, physicians can eliminate the “too many days at the end of the month” syndrome and instead develop a foundation for building real wealth and security, even in difficult economic climates like we face today.
There are three major budget types. A flexible budget is an expenditure cap that adjusts for changes in the volume of expense items. A fixed budget does not. Advancing to the next level of rigor, a zero-based budget starts with essential expenses and adds items until the money is gone. Regardless of type, budgets can be extremely effective if one uses them at home or the office in order to spot money troubles before they develop.
For the purpose of wealth building, doctors may think of this budget as a quantitative expression of an action plan. It is an integral part of the overall cost-control process for the individual, his or her family unit or one’s medical practice.
Preparing a net income statement (lifestyle cash flow budget) is often difficult because many doctors perceive it as punitive. Most doctors do not live a disciplined spending lifestyle and they view a budget as a compromise to it. However, a cash flow budget is designed to provide comfort when there is surplus income that can be diverted for other future needs. For example, if you treat retirement savings as just another periodic bill, you are more likely to save for it.
You may construct a personal cash budget by recording each cash receipt and cash disbursement on a spreadsheet. Only the date, amount and a brief description of the transaction are necessary. The cash budget is a simple tool that even doctors who lack accounting acumen can use. Since it is possible to track the cash-in and cash-out in the same format used for a standard check register, most doctors find that the process takes very little time. Such a budget will provide a helpful look at how well you are staying within available resources for a given period.
We then continue with an analysis of your operating checkbook and a review of various source documents such as one’s tax return, credit card statements, pay stubs and insurance policies. A typical statement will show all cash transactions that occur within one year. It is helpful to establish a monthly equivalent to all items of income and expense. For the purposes of getting started, note items of income and expense by the frequency you are accustomed to receiving or spending them.
What You Should Know About The ‘Action Plan’ Cash Budget
For a medical office, the first operations budget item might be salary for the doctor and staff. Operating assets and other big ticket items come next. Some of our doctors/clients review their office P&L statements monthly, line by line, in an effort to reduce expenses. Then they add back those discretionary business expenses they have some control over.
Now, do you still run out of money before the end of the month? If so, you had better cut back on entertainment, eating dinner out or that fancy, new but unproven piece of medical equipment. This sounds draconian until you remind yourself that your choice is either: live frugally later or live a simpler lifestyle now and invest the difference.
As a young doctor, it may be a difficult trade-off. By mid-life, however, you are staring retirement in the face. That is why the action plan depends on your actions concerning monetary scarcity, a plan that one can implement and measure using simple benchmarks or budgeting ratios. By using these statistics, perhaps on an annual basis, the doctor can spot problems, correct them and continue planning actively toward stated goals like building long-term wealth.
Useful Calculations To Assess Your Budgeting Success
In the past, generic budgeting ratios would emphasize not spending more than 15 to 20 percent of your net salary on food or 8 percent on medical care. Now these estimates have given way to more rigorous numbers. Personal budget ratios, much like medical practice financial ratios, represent comparable benchmarks for parameters such as debt, income growth and net worth. Although these ratios are still broad, the following represent some useful personal budgeting ratios for physicians.
• Basic liquidity ratio = liquid assets / average monthly expenses. Cash-on-hand should approach 12 to 24 months or more in the case of a doctor employed by a financially insecure HMO or fragile medical group practice. Yes, chances are you have heard of the standard notion of setting enough cash aside to cover three months in a rainy day scenario. However, we have decried this older laymen standard for many years in our textbooks, white papers and speaking engagements as being wholly insufficient for the competitively unstable environment of modern healthcare.
• Debt to assets ratio = total debt / total assets. This percentage is high initially but should decrease with age as the doctor approaches a debt-free existence
• Debt to gross income ratio = annual debt repayments / annual gross income. This represents the adequacy of current income for existing debt repayments. Doctors should try to keep this below 20 to 25 percent.
• Debt service ratio = annual debt repayment / annual take-home pay. Physicians should aim to keep this ratio below 25 to 30 percent or face difficulty paying down debt.
• Investment assets to net worth ratio = investment assets / net worth. This budget ratio should increase over time as retirement approaches.
• Savings to income ratio = savings / annual income. This ratio should also increase over time as one retires major obligations like medical school debt, a practice loan or a home mortgage.
• Real growth ratio = (income this year – income last year) / (income last year – inflation rate). This budget ratio should grow faster than the core rate of inflation.
• Growth of net worth ratio = (net worth this year – net worth last year) / net worth last year – inflation rate). Again, this budgeting ratio should stay ahead of inflation.
In other words, these ratios will help answer the question: “How am I doing?”
Pearls For Sticking To A Budget
Far from the burden that most doctors consider it to be, budgeting in one form or another is probably one of the greatest tools for building wealth. However, it is also one of the greatest weaknesses among physicians who tend to live a certain lifestyle.
In fact, we have found that less than one in 10 medical professionals have a personal budget. Fear, or a lack of knowledge, is a major cause of procrastination. Fortunately, the following guidelines assist in reversing this microeconomic disaster.
1. Set reasonable goals and estimate annual income. Do not keep large amounts of cash at home or office. Deposit it in an FDIC insured money-market account for safety. Do not deposit it in a money market mutual fund with net asset value (NAV) that may “break the buck” and fall below the one-dollar level. Track actual bills and expenses.
2. Do not pay bills early, do not have more taxes withheld from your salary than needed and develop spending estimates to pay fixed expenses first. Fixed expenses are usually contractual and usually include housing, utilities, food, Social Security, medical, debt repayments, homeowner’s or renter’s insurance, auto, life and disability insurance, etc. Reduce fixed expenses when possible. Ultimately, all expenses get paid and become variable in the long run.
3. Make it a priority to reduce variable expenses. Variable expenses are not contractual and may include clothing, education, recreational, travel, vacation, gas, cable TV, entertainment, gifts, furnishings, savings, investments, etc. Trim variable expenses by 5 to 20 percent.
4. Use “carve-outs or “set-asides” for big ticket items and differentiate true wants from frivolous needs.
5. Calculate both income and expenses as a percentage of your total budget. Determine if there is a better way to allocate resources. Review the budget on a monthly basis to notice any variance. Determine if the variance was avoidable, unavoidable or a result of inaccurate assumptions. Take corrective action as needed.
6. Know the difference between saving and investing. Savers tend to be risk adverse while investors understand risk and take steps to mitigate it. Watch mutual fund commissions and investment advisory fees, which cut into return-rates. Keep investments simple and diversified (stocks, bonds, cash, index, no-load mutual and exchange traded funds, etc.).
Sooner or later, despite the best of budgeting intentions, something will go awry. A doctor will be terminated or may be the victim of a reduction-in-force (RIF) because of cost containment initiatives.4 A medical practice partnership may dissolve or a local hospital or surgery center may close, hurting your practice and livelihood. Someone may file a malpractice lawsuit against you, a working spouse may be laid off or you may get divorced. Regardless of the cause, budgeting crisis management encompasses two different perspectives: awareness and execution.
First, if you become aware that you may lose your job, the following proactive steps will be helpful to your budget and overall financial condition.
• Decrease retirement contributions to the required minimum for company/practice match. • Place retirement contribution differences in an after-tax emergency fund. • Eliminate unnecessary payroll deductions and deposit the difference to cash. • Replace group term life insurance with personal term or universal life insurance. • Take your old group term life insurance policy with you if possible. • Establish a home equity line of credit to verify employment. • Borrow against your pension plan only as a last resort.
If you have lost your job or your salary has been depressed, negotiate your departure and get an attorney if you believe you lost your position through breach of contract or discrimination. Then execute the following steps to recalculate your budget and boost your wealth rebuilding activities.
• Prioritize fixed monthly bills in the following order: rent or mortgage; car payments; utility bills; minimum credit card payments; and restructured long-term debt.
• Consider liquidating assets to pay off debts in this order: emergency fund, checking accounts, investment accounts or assets held in your children’s names.
• Review insurance coverage and increase deductibles on homeowner’s and automobile insurance for needed cash.
• Then sell appreciated stocks or mutual funds; personal valuables such as furnishings, jewelry and real estate; and finally, assets not in pension or annuities if necessary.
• Keep or rollover any lump sum pension or savings plan distribution directly to a similar savings plan at your new employer, if possible, when you get rehired.
• Apply for unemployment insurance.
• Review your medical insurance and COBRA coverage after a “qualifying event” such as job loss, firing or even after quitting. It is a bit expensive due to a 2 percent administrative fee surcharge but this may be well worth it for those with preexisting conditions or who are otherwise difficult to insure. One may continue COBRA for up to 18 months.
• Consider a high deductible Health Savings Account (HSA), which allows tax-deferred dollars like a medical IRA, for a variety of costs not normally covered under traditional heath insurance plans. Self-employed doctors deduct both the cost of the premiums and the amount contributed to the HSA. Unused funds roll over until the age of 59½, when one can use the money as a supplemental retirement benefit.
• Eliminate unnecessary variable, charitable and/or discretionary expenses, and become very frugal.
Final Notes
The behavioral psychologist, Gene Schmuckler, PhD, MBA, sometimes asks exasperated doctors to recall the story of the old man who spent a day watching his physician son treating HMO patients in the office. The doctor had been working at his usual feverish pace all morning. Although he was working hard, he bitterly complained to his dad that he was not making as much money as he used to make. Finally, the old man interrupted him and said, “Son, why don’t you just treat the sick patients?” The doctor-son looked at his father with an annoyed expression and responded, “Dad, can’t you see, I do not have time to treat just the sick ones.”
Always remember to add a bit of emotional sanity into your budgeting and economic endeavors.
Regardless of one’s age or lifestyle, the insightful doctor realizes that it is never too late to take control of a lost financial destiny through prudent wealth building activities. Personal and practice budgeting is always a good way to start the journey.
NOTE: Dr. Marcinko is a former Certified Financial Planner and current Certified Medical Planner™. He has been a medical management advisor for more than a decade. He is the CEO of http://www.MarcinkoAssociates.com
The authors acknowledge the assistance of Mackenzie H. Marcinko PhD in the preparation of this article.
Posted on October 20, 2024 by Dr. David Edward Marcinko MBA MEd CMP™
By Staff Reporters
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The Gambler’s Fallacy occurs when we subconsciously believe we can use past events to predict the future. It is also called the Monte Carlo Fallacy, after the Casino de Monte-Carlo in Monaco where it was observed in 1913
For example, it is common for the hottest sector during one calendar year to attract the most investors the following year.
Of course, just because an investment did well last year doesn’t mean it will continue to do well this year. In fact, it is more likely to lag the market.
The Society of Physician Entrepreneurs (SoPE) was established as a community of interest in 2008 by several members of the American Academy of Otolaryngology – Head and Neck Surgery (AAO-HNS), including Dr. Arlen Meyers, the founding past President & CEO. SoPE became a separate and independent legal entity; incorporating in Washington, D.C. in January 2011. It is a 501 (c) 6 member organization with the stated purpose of providing support; idea stage through funding, for physician entrepreneurs with ideas on how to improve healthcare.
SoPE’s vision is to accelerate physician originated biomedical innovation.
The mission of SoPE is to foster scholarship in biomedical entrepreneurship and provide education, training and support; idea stage through funding, to primarily community-based physician entrepreneurs in the interest of better healthcare.
SoPE membership is open to all physicians and also accepts individuals as associate members; representatives of medical device, legal, venture capital, and other firms with an interest in serving and/or supporting physician entrepreneurs.
Financial planning as a concept has been around for a long time, but not as we know it today. When Loren Dunton set up the Society for Financial Counseling Ethics in 1969, or when the first graduating class of the College of Financial Planning graduated in 1973, financial planning was very different. It was centered around selling limited partnerships, which came to end with the Tax Reform Act of 1986.
However, financial planning re-emerged — all thanks to Richard Averitt III. The certified financial planner gave new meaning to financial planning, this time with a focus on who the client is and what their needs are. This approach was purely methodological in nature.
Soon after, financial planning picked up again. According to the Certified Financial Planner (C.F.P.) Board of Standards in Denver, today, there are more than 94,000 C.F.P.s worldwide, including over 48,000 in the U.S. Additionally, there are also organizations that have been set up for C.F.P.s, such as the Financial Planning Association (FPA), which has approximately 22,000 members.
And, don’t forget the emerging Certified Medical Planner™ professional fiduciary designation for physicians, dentists, nurses and allied healthcare clients.
Financial planning, as we know it now, includes investing, tax planning, retirement planning, and basically other ways to get your finances in order and create mindful budgets to ensure a safe and secure future. Getting a step ahead of your spending and finances is beneficial in the long run and Financial Planning Month in October is the perfect time to do that.
Posted on October 15, 2024 by Dr. David Edward Marcinko MBA MEd CMP™
By Staff Reporters &The Medicare Team
Medicare open enrollment—which runs from October 15th through December 7th this year—is your chance to check in on your Medicare plan and, if needed, change it.
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Mark your calendars — Medicare Open Enrollment starts October 15th! Did you know new benefits are coming to Medicare drug coverage next year?
Also starting next year, you can choose to participate in a program that spreads your out-of-pocket drug costs across the calendar year, instead of paying all at once at the pharmacy. It’s called the Medicare Prescription Payment Plan — and you can opt in with your plan throughout the 2025 plan year. Contact your plan for more details.
Remember, Medicare plans can change from one year to the next, and so can your health needs. Preview and compare all your health and drug options and see if you can save!
Posted on October 14, 2024 by Dr. David Edward Marcinko MBA MEd CMP™
By Staff Reporters
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U.S. stock markets, including the New York Stock Exchange and the NASDAQ remain open and follow a regular schedule today.
The bond markets will be closed, however.
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Stocks ended last week on a high note, closing out their fifth straight week of gains. The Dow was pushed to yet another new all-time high by strong earnings from JPMorgan, while the S&P 500 was in the green and rose to its own record close, and the NASDAQ clawed its way out of the red by early Friday afternoon.
Bond yields took a breather, falling below 4.1% thanks to a better-than-expected PPI report that helped offset inflation fears that had re-arisen after a worse-than-expected CPI report.
Gold rose as well on PPI news, since the data pointed to a better chance of more rate cuts ahead.
Oil fell a bit but gained over the last two weeks on geopolitical tensions and destruction in the Gulf of Mexico following the two major hurricanes.
Medical Executive-Post Publisher-in-Chief, Dr. David Edward Marcinko MBA CMP™, and financial planner Paul Larson CFP™, were interviewed by Sharon Fitzgerald for Medical News, Inc. Here is a reprint of that interview.
Doctors Squeezed from both Ends
Physicians today “are getting squeezed from both ends” when it comes to their finances, according Paul Larson, president of Larson Financial Group. On one end, collections and reimbursements are down; on the other end, taxes are up. That’s why financial planning, including a far-sighted strategy for retirement, is a necessity.
Larson Speaks
“We help these doctors function like a CEO and help them quarterback their plan,” said Larson, a Certified Financial Planner™ whose company serves thousands of physicians and dentists exclusively. Headquartered in St. Louis, Larson Financial boasts 19 locations.
Larson launched his company after working with a few physicians and recognizing that these clients face unique financial challenges and yet have exceptional opportunities, as well.
What makes medical practitioners unique? One thing, Larson said, is because they start their jobs much later in life than most people. Physicians wrap up residency or fellowship, on average, at the age of 32 or even older. “The delayed start really changes how much money they need to be saving to accomplish these goals like retirement or college for their kids,” he said.
Another thing that puts physicians in a unique category is that most begin their careers with a student-loan debt of $175,000 or more. Larson said that there’s “an emotional component” to debt, and many physicians want to wipe that slate clean before they begin retirement saving.
Larson also said doctors are unique because they are a lawsuit target – and he wasn’t talking about medical malpractice suits. “You can amass wealth as a doctor, get sued in five years and then lose everything that you worked so hard to save,” he said. He shared the story of a client who was in a fender-bender and got out of his car wearing his white lab coat. “It was bad,” Larson said, and the suit has dogged the client for years.
The Three Mistake of Retirement Planning
Larson said he consistently sees physicians making three mistakes that may put a comfortable retirement at risk.
The first is assuming that funding a retirement plan, such as a 401(k), is sufficient. It’s not. “There’s no way possible for you to save enough money that way to get to that goal,” he said. That’s primarily due to limits imposed by the Internal Revenue Service, which allows a maximum contribution of $49,000 annually if self-employed and just $16,500 annually until the age of 50. He recommends that physicians throughout their career sock away 20 percent of gross income in vehicles outside of their retirement plan.
The second common mistake is making investments that are inefficient from a tax perspective. In particular, real estate or bond investments in a taxable account prompt capital gains with each dividend, and that’s no way to make money, he said.
The third mistake, and it’s a big one, is paying too much to have their money managed. A stockbroker, for example, takes a fee for buying mutual funds and then the likes of Fidelity or Janus tacks on an internal fee as well. “It’s like driving a boat with an anchor hanging off the back,” Larson said.
Marcinko Speaks
Dr. David E. Marcinko MBA MEd CPHQ, a physician and [former] certified financial planner] and founder of the more specific program for physician-focused fiduciary financial advisors and consultants www.CertifiedMedicalPlanner.org, sees another common mistake that wreaks havoc with a physician’s retirement plans – divorce.
He said clients come to him “looking to invest in the next Google or Facebook, and yet they will get divorced two or three times, and they’ll be whacked 50 percent of their net income each time. It just doesn’t make sense.”
Marcinko practiced medicine for 16 years until about 10 years ago, when he sold his practice and ambulatory surgical center to a public company, re-schooled and retired. Then, his second career in financial planning and investment advising began. “I’m a doctor who went to business school about 20 years ago, before it was in fashion. Much to my mother’s chagrin, by the way,” he quipped. Marcinko has written 27 books about practice management, hospital administration and business, physician finances, risk management, retirement planning and practice succession. He’s the founder of the Georgia-based Institute of Medical Business Advisors Inc.
Succession Planning for Doctors
Succession planning, Marcinko said, ideally should begin five years before retirement – and even earlier if possible. When assisting a client with succession, Marcinko examines two to three years of financial statements, balance sheets, cash-flow statements, statements of earnings, and profit and loss statements, yet he said “the $50,000 question” remains: How does a doctor find someone suited to take over his or her life’s work? “We are pretty much dead-set against the practice broker, the third-party intermediary, and are highly in favor of the one-on-one mentor philosophy,” Marcinko explained.
“There is more than enough opportunity to befriend or mentor several medical students or interns or residents or fellows that you might feel akin to, and then develop that relationship over the years.” He said third-party brokers “are like real-estate agents, they want to make the sale”; thus, they aren’t as concerned with finding a match that will ensure a smooth transition.
The only problem with the mentoring strategy, Marcinko acknowledged, is that mentoring takes time, and that’s a commodity most physicians have too little of. Nonetheless, succession is too important not to invest the time necessary to ensure it goes off without a hitch.
Times are different today because the economy doesn’t allow physicians to gradually bow out of a practice. “My overhead doesn’t go down if I go part-time. SO, if I want to sell my practice for a premium price, I need to keep the numbers up,” he noted.
Assessment
Dr. Marcinko’s retirement investment advice – and it’s the advice he gives to anyone – is to invest 15-20 percent of your income in an Vanguard indexed mutual fund or diversified ETF for the next 30-50 years. “We all want to make it more complicated than it really is, don’t we?” he said.
QUESTION: What makes a physician moving toward retirement different from most others employees or professionals? Marcinko’s answer was simple: “They probably had a better shot in life to have a successful retirement, and if they don’t make it, shame on them. That’s the difference.”
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Speaker: If you need a moderator or speaker for an upcoming event, Dr. David E. Marcinko; MBA – Publisher-in-Chief of the Medical Executive-Post – is available for seminar or speaking engagements. Contact: MarcinkoAdvisors@msn.com
OUR OTHER PRINT BOOKS AND RELATED INFORMATION SOURCES:
The following are some of the most common psychological biases. Some are learned while others are genetically determined (and often socially reinforced). While this essay focuses on the financial implications of these biases, they are prevalent in most areas in life.
[A] Incentives
It is broadly accepted that incenting someone to do something is effective, whether it be paying office staff a commissions to sell more healthcare products, or giving bonuses to office employees if they work efficiently to see more HMO patients. What is not well understood is that the incentives cause a sub-conscious distortion of decision-making ability in the incented person. This distortion causes the affected person – whether it is yourself or someone else – to truly believe in a certain decision, even if it is the wrong choice when viewed objectively. Service professionals, including financial advisors and lawyers, are affected by this bias, and it causes them to honestly offer recommendations that may be inappropriate, and that they would recognize as being inappropriate if they did not have this bias. The existence of this bias makes it important for each one of us to examine our incentive biases and take extra care when advising physician clients, or to make sure we are appropriately considering non-incented alternatives.
[B] Denial
Denial is a well known, but under-appreciated, psychological force. Physicians, clients and professionals (like everyone else) are prone to the mistake of ignoring a painful reality, like putting off an unpleasant call (thus prolonging a problematic situation and potentially making it worse) or not opening account statements because of the desire not to see quantitative proof of losses. Denial also manifests itself by causing human beings to ignore evidence that a mistake has been made. If you think of yourself as a smart person (and what professional doesn’t?), then evidence pointing to the conclusion that a mistake has been made will call into question that belief, causing cognitive dissonance. Our brains function to either avoid cognitive dissonance or to resolve it quickly, usually by discounting or rationalizing the disconfirming evidence. Not surprisingly, colleagues at Kansas State University and elsewhere, found that financial denial, including attempts to avoid thinking about or dealing with money, is associated with lower income, lower net worth, and higher levels of revolving credit.
[C] Consistency and Commitment Tendency
Human beings have evolved – probably both genetically and socially – to be consistent. It is easier and safer to deal with others if they honor their commitments and if they behave in a consistent and predictable manner over time. This allows people to work together and build trust that is needed for repeat dealings and to accomplish complex tasks. In the jungle, this trust was necessary to for humans to successfully work as a team to catch animals for dinner, or fight common threats. In business and life it is preferable to work with others who exhibit these tendencies. Unfortunately, the downside of these traits is that people make errors in judgment because of the strong desire not to change, or be different (“lemming effect” or “group-think”). So the result is that most people will seek out data that supports a prior stated belief or decision and ignore negative data, by not “thinking outside the box”. Additionally, future decisions will be unduly influenced by the desire to appear consistent with prior decisions, thus decreasing the ability to be rational and objective. The more people state their beliefs or decisions, the less likely they are to change even in the face of strong evidence that they should do so. This bias results in a strong force in most people causing them to avoid or quickly resolve the cognitive dissonance that occurs when a person who thinks of themselves as being consistent and committed to prior statements and actions encounters evidence that indicates that prior actions may have been a mistake. It is particularly important therefore for advisors to be aware that their communications with clients and the press clouds the advisor’s ability to seek out and process information that may prove current beliefs incorrect. Since this is obviously irrational, one must actively seek out negative information, and be very careful about what is said and written, being aware that the more you shout it out, the more you pound it in.
[D] Pattern Recognition
On a biological level, the human brain has evolved to seek out patterns and to work on stimuli-response patterns, both native and learned. What this means is that we all react to something based on our prior experiences that had shared characteristics with the current stimuli. Many situations have so many possible inputs that our brains need to take mental short cuts using pattern recognition we would not gain the benefit from having faced a certain type of problem in the past. This often-helpful mechanism of decision-making fails us when past correlations or patterns do not accurately represent the current reality, and thus the mental shortcuts impair our ability to analyze a new situation. This biologic and social need to seek out patterns that can be used to program stimuli-response mechanisms is especially harmful to rational decision-making when the pattern is not a good predictor of the desired outcome (like short term moves in the stock market not being predictive of long term equity portfolio performance), or when past correlations do not apply anymore.
[E] Social Proof
It is a subtle but powerful reality that having others agree with a decision one makes, gives that person more conviction in the decision, and having others disagree decreases one’s confidence in that decision. This bias is even more exaggerated when the other parties providing the validating/questioning opinions are perceived to be experts in a relevant field, or are authority figures, like people on television. In many ways, the short term moves in the stock market are the ultimate expression of social proof – the price of a stock one owns going up is proof that a lot of other people agree with the decision to buy, and a dropping stock price means a stock should be sold. When these stressors become extreme, it is of paramount importance that all participants in the financial planning process have a clear understanding of what the long-term goals are, and what processes are in place to monitor the progress towards these goals. Without these mechanisms it is very hard to resist the enormous pressure to follow the crowd; think social media.
[F] Contrast
Sensation, emotion and cognition work by contrast. Perception is not only on an absolute scale, it also functions relative to prior stimuli. This is why room temperature water feels hot when experienced after being exposed to the cold. It is also why the cessation of negative emotions “feels” so good. Cognitive functioning also works on this principle. So one’s ability to analyze information and draw conclusions is very much related to the context with in which the analysis takes place, and to what information was originally available. This is why it is so important to manage one’s own expectations as well as those of clients. A client is much more likely to be satisfied with a 10% portfolio return if they were expecting 7% than if they were hoping for 15%.
[G] Scarcity
Things that are scarce have more impact and perceived value than things present in abundance. Biologically, this bias is demonstrated by the decreasing response to constant stimuli (contrast bias) and socially it is widely believed that scarcity equals value. People who feel an opportunity may “pass them by” and thus be unavailable are much more likely to make a hasty, poorly reasoned decision than they otherwise would. Investment fads and rising security prices elicit this bias (along with social proof and others) and need to be resisted. Understanding that analysis in the face of perceived scarcity is often inadequate and biased may help professionals make more rational choices, and keep clients from chasing fads.
[H] Envy / Jealousy
This bias also relates to the contrast and social proof biases. Prudent financial and business planning and related decision-making are based on real needs followed by desires. People’s happiness and satisfaction is often based more on one’s position relative to perceived peers rather than an ability to meet absolute needs. The strong desire to “keep up with the Jones” can lead people to risk what they have and need for what they want. These actions can have a disastrous impact on important long-term financial goals. Clear communication and vivid examples of risks is often needed to keep people focused on important financial goals rather than spurious ones, or simply money alone, for its own sake.
[I] Fear
Financial fear is probably the most common emotion among physicians and all clients. The fear of being wrong – as well as the fear of being correct! It can be debilitating, as in the corollary expression on fear: the paralysis of analysis.
According to Paul Karasik, there are four common investor and physician fears, which can be addressed by financial advisors in the following manner:
Fear of making the wrong decision: ameliorated by being a teacher and educator.
Fear of change: ameliorated by providing an agenda, outline and/or plan.
Fear of giving up control: ameliorated by asking for permission and agreement.
Fear of losing self-esteem: ameliorated by serving the client first and communicating that sentiment in a positive manner.
Now, as human beings, our brains are booby-trapped with psychological barriers that stand between making smart financial decisions and making dumb ones. The good news is that once you realize your own mental weaknesses, it’s not impossible to overcome them.
In fact, Mandi Woodruff, a financial reporter whose work has appeared in Yahoo! Finance, Daily Finance, The Wall Street Journal, The Fiscal Times and the Financial Times among others; related the following mind-traps in a September 2013 essay for the finance vertical Business Insider; as these impediments are now entering the lay-public zeitgeist:
Anchoring happens when we place too much emphasis on the first piece of information we receive regarding a given subject. For instance, when shopping for a wedding ring a salesman might tell us to spend three months’ salary. After hearing this, we may feel like we are doing something wrong if we stray from this advice, even though the guideline provided may cause us to spend more than we can afford.
Myopia makes it hard for us to imagine what our lives might be like in the future. For example, because we are young, healthy, and in our prime earning years now, it may be hard for us to picture what life will be like when our health depletes and we know longer have the earnings necessary to support our standard of living. This short-sightedness makes it hard to save adequately when we are young, when saving does the most good.
Gambler’s fallacy occurs when we subconsciously believe we can use past events to predict the future. It is common for the hottest sector during one calendar year to attract the most investors the following year. Of course, just because an investment did well last year doesn’t mean it will continue to do well this year. In fact, it is more likely to lag the market.
Avoidance is simply procrastination. Even though you may only have the opportunity to adjust your health care plan through your employer once per year, researching alternative health plans is too much work and too boring for us to get around to it. Consequently, we stick with a plan that may not be best for us.
Loss aversion affected many investors during the stock market crash of 2008. During the crash, many people decided they couldn’t afford to lose more and sold their investments. Of course, this caused the investors to sell at market troughs and miss the quick, dramatic recovery.
Overconfident investing happens when we believe we can out-smart other investors via market timing or through quick, frequent trading. Data convincingly shows that people who trade most often under-perform the market by a significant margin over time.
Mental accounting takes place when we assign different values to money depending on where we get it from. For instance, even though we may have an aggressive saving goal for the year, it is likely easier for us to save money that we worked for than money that was given to us as a gift.
Herd mentality makes it very hard for humans to not take action when everyone around us does. For example, we may hear stories of people making significant profits buying, fixing up, and flipping homes and have the desire to get in on the action, even though we have no experience in real estate.