MYOPIA: Prime Financial Earning Years

COGNITIVE BIAS

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By Staff Reporters

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Myopia makes it hard for us to imagine what our lives might be like in the future.

For example, because we are young, healthy, and in our prime earning years now, it may be hard for us to picture what life will be like when our health depletes and we know longer have the earnings necessary to support our standard of living.

According to colleague Dan Ariely PhD, this short sighted cognitivebias makes it hard to save adequately when we are young, when saving does the most good.

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DAILY UPDATE: Bitcoin and Big Technology Stocks Soar as DJIA Slips

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Essays, Opinions and Curated News in Health Economics, Investing, Business, Management and Financial Planning for Physician Entrepreneurs and their Savvy Advisors and Consultants

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In crypto, bitcoin (BTC-USD) prices soared to trade above $101,300 a token in afternoon trade.

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Big Tech stocks led the market higher on Wednesday, as investors digested another month of sticky inflation data that met economists’ expectations and likely pointed to a Federal Reserve interest rate cut next week. The tech-heavy NASDAQ Composite (^IXIC) jumped about 1.7% amid a feverish rally in the “Magnificent Seven” tech stocks. Google parent Alphabet’s (GOOG, GOOGL) shares extended gains to hit a record high, rising more than 5%.

Meanwhile Tesla (TSLA), Meta (META) and Amazon (AMZN) all also surged to record highs, with Tesla notching its first record close in more than three years. The S&P 500 (^GSPC) rose around 0.8%, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average (^DJI) slipped about 0.2%.

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Visualize: How private equity tangled banks in a web of debt, from the Financial Times.

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MEDIA HEADLINES: Financial Security Risk Management

By Staff Reporters

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Headline risk refers to the risk that a negative news media headline about one security issuer, incident or sector could affect the demand for and pricing of a much wider swath of securities, including those that have no direct relation to the securities headlined and whose fundamentals (defined above) remain intact.

Financial analyst Meredith Whitney’s appearance on “Sixty Minutes” in December 2010 was a classic example of the potential impact of headline risk, when her prediction of “a spate of municipal bond defaults” helped trigger a massive municipal bond market selloff, even though most municipal bonds actually faced no immediate default threat at that time, and the number of municipal defaults actually declined in the subsequent 12 months.

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MARCINKO ASSOCIATES: Physician Wealth Advisors and Practice Management Consultants

FIDUCIARY MEDICAL COLLEAGUES – FEE ONLY – NO PRODUCT OR SALES COMMISSIONS

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DEAR MEDICAL COLLEAGUES

Achieving your financial, wealth and medical practice management goals is important, but handling everything on your own can be overwhelming. That’s where we come in. At D. E. Marcinko & Associates, our team of dual degree experienced physician advisors and medical consultants is here to guide you every step of the way. We believe in providing unbiased, high-quality financial and business advice.

For example, we offer a one-time written financial plan with oral evaluation for a flat fee with no ongoing sales or assets under management fees or commissions. Together, we can create a personalized financial plan tailored to your unique goals, empowering you to make confident, informed decisions as you navigate your financial future.

Other Services Include:

  • Estate Planning We have a network of qualified legal professionals that we can refer you to for state specific estate planning needs.
  • Tax Strategy We can work alongside your CPA for tax planning purposes. If needed, we can refer you to a qualified tax professional.
  • Investment Analysis If you have investments, we review your accounts to make sure they are aligned with your long-term goals.
  • 401-k Allocations We evaluate your 401(k) allocations and provide recommendations that align with your goals.
  • Education Savings We help you explore the various ways to plan and save for education expenses.
  • Insurance & Risk Management We assess your insurance coverage to ensure it adequately protects you against potential risks; as well as evaluate and provide expert litigation witnesses, as needed.
  • Medical Practice Management We evaluate your current or potential medical practice to determine value and/or private equity offers or physician practice management formats [PPMC] for new, mid-career or retiring physicians, nurses and dentists.   

D. E. Marcinko & Associates is unique and fully committed to all phases of a medical professionals personal and business life cycle. We are at your service 24/7: Email MarcinkoAdvisors@outlook.com

ANN MILLER RN MHA CMP

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DAILY UPDATE: Walgreens to PE as CPI Upticks and Markets Blast Off this Morning

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According to reporting from the Wall Street Journal, the pharmacy chain Walgreen’s is discussing selling to private equity (PE) firm Sycamore Partners, a deal that could close early next year. This comes following a tumultuous year for the company, which announced it would close 1,200 stores in October and laid off more than 250 employees in November. The PE firm is allegedly considering selling off pieces of the business or working with partners, sources told the Journal. Following the news, Walgreens’s stock jumped 28%, its biggest single-day increase since 1980, according to Yahoo Finance.

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Inflation rose 2.7% on an annual basis in November, according to the latest government report on the Consumer Price Index, or CPI. Last month’s CPI was forecast to come in at 2.7%, according to economists surveyed by financial data firm FactSet. The Consumer Price Index, a basket of goods and services typically bought by consumers, tracks the change in those prices over time. 

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US stocks opened higher on Wednesday as investors digested another month of sticky inflation data that met economists’ expectations and likely pointed to a Federal Reserve interest rate cut next week. The Dow Jones Industrial Average (^DJI) increased about 0.2%, while the S&P 500 (^GSPC) jumped nearly 0.5%. The tech-heavy NASDAQ Composite (^IXIC) also added to across-the-board gains, rising roughly 0.8%.

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What is Mutual Fund WINDOW DRESSING?

DEFINITION

By Staff Reporters

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To most people the holiday season means decorations at home and at work, but it also can mean “window dressing” in your mutual fund.

This somewhat disparaging term is used to describe the practice of a mutual fund making cosmetic changes to its portfolio just before the end of each calendar quarter. It’s done because funds publish their exact holdings of securities four times a year based on what they own at the end of each quarter.

“The basic concept is that managers are either hiding their mistakes or adding winners to make themselves look a little smarter,” says Russ Kinnel, director of manager research at fund researcher Morningstar Inc. in Chicago. “Of course, it doesn’t necessarily help performance,” he adds.

Santa Rally: https://medicalexecutivepost.com/2021/12/16/what-is-the-santa-claus-stock-market-rally/

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RENT: Owner’s Equivalent Price

By Staff Reporters

DEFINITION

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CPI does not measure changes in shelter costs by looking at home prices, but by measuring the amount of rent that could be paid to substitute a currently owned house for an equivalent rental property.

Owners’ equivalent rent (OER) is a dollar amount that is published by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics to measure the change in implicit rent, which is the amount a homeowner would pay to rent or would earn from renting his or her home in a competitive market.

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DAILY UPDATE: Winter

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Happy First Day of Winter

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SWAP AGREEMENTS: Transactions, Credit Default and Rates

By Staff Reporters

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DEFINITION

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Swaps (a.k.a. swap agreements) are two-party contracts entered into primarily by institutional investors for periods ranging from a few weeks to more than one year.

In a standard “swap” transaction, two parties agree to exchange the returns (or differentials in rates of return) earned or realized on particular predetermined investments or instruments. The gross returns to be exchanged or “swapped” between the parties are generally calculated with respect to a “notional amount,” i.e., the return on or increase in value of a particular dollar amount invested at a particular interest rate, in a particular foreign currency, or in a “basket” of securities representing a particular index.

Forms of swap agreements include interest rate swaps (under which fixed- or floating-rate interest payments on a specific principal amount are exchanged) and total return swaps (under which one party agrees to pay the other the total return of a defined underlying asset in exchange for fee payments).

In addition, credit default swaps enable an investor to buy/sell protection against a credit event of a specific issuer. The seller of credit protection against a security or basket of securities receives an up-front or periodic payment to compensate against potential default(s).

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ENTITLEMENT PROGRAMS: Criteria and Integration

DEFINITIONS

By Staff Reporters

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Entitlement programs: From an economic overview or government budgeting perspective, entitlement programs are types of government programs that provide individuals with personal financial benefits (or sometimes special government-provided goods or services) to which an indefinite (but usually large) number of potential beneficiaries have a legal right when they meet specified eligibility requirements. The beneficiaries are normally individuals, but can also be organizations. The most important examples at the federal level in the U.S. include Social Security, Medicare, and Medicaid.

Environmental, Social, Governance (ESG) Criteria: The risk and/or opportunity to a company’s market valuation resulting from environmental, social and governance (ESG) factors. Depending on the sector, environmental and social factors include, but are not limited to, 1) climate change, 2) water stress, 3) product safety and quality (supply chain and manufacturing), 4) cybersecurity and data privacy, and 5) human capital management. Regardless of the sector, governance factors include: 1) business (mis)conduct, 2) board composition, independence and entrenchment, 3) accounting practices, 4) ownership structure, and 5) executive pay-for-sustainability performance alignment.

Environmental, Social, Governance (ESG) Integration: The structural incorporation of financially-relevant information on Environmental, Social and Governance (ESG) factors into the investment decision-making process.

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DAILY UPDATE: Medicare Open Enrollment Ends as Stock Market Weekly Gains

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Medicare Open enrollment ended December 7th, 2024. New Plans commence January 1st, 2025.

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Potential Market-Moving Catalysts:

Economic:

  • Monday (12/9): Wholesale Inventories
  • Tuesday (12/10): Productivity-Revised, Unit Labor Costs-Revised
  • Wednesday (12/11): Consumer Price Index (CPI), EIA Crude Oil Inventories, MBA Mortgage Applications Index, Treasury Budget  
  • Thursday (12/12): Producer Price Index (PPI), EIA Natural Gas Inventories, Initial Claims, Continuing Claims
  • Friday (12/13): Export Prices ex-ag, Import Prices ex-oil

Earnings:

  • Monday (12/9): Oracle Group (ORCL), MongoDB Inc. (MDB), Toll Brothers Inc. (TOL), Casey’s General Stores Inc. (CASY), Vail Resorts Inc. (MTN)
  • Tuesday (12/10): AutoZone Inc. (AZN), Ferguson Enterprises Inc. (FERG), Academy Sports and Outdoors Inc. (ASO), GameStop Corp. (GME)   
  • Wednesday (12/11): Adobe Inc. (ADBE), Nordson Corp. (NDSN), REV Group Inc. (REVG)
  • Thursday (12/12): Ciena Corp. (CIEN), Broadcom Inc. (AVGO), Costco Wholesale Corp. (COST)   
  • Friday (12/13): -no reports-

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U.S. stocks closed mostly higher Friday, with the S&P 500 and NASDAQ Composite each notching fresh record peaks after the latest employment report showed jobs growth bounced back in November. The S&P 500 rose 15.16 points, or 0.2%, to end at 6,090.27. The NASDAQ climbed 159.05 points, or 0.8%, to close at 19,859.77. The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 123.19 points, or 0.3%, to end at 44,642.52.

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SYNTHETIC EQUITY: Deferred Compensation for Financial Advisors

DEFINED FOR FINANCIAL ADVISORS

By Dr. David Edward Marcinko MBA MEd

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Think of synthetic equity as a communal garden. You don’t own the plot, and you don’t necessarily have a say in what’s planted, but you’re guaranteed a share of the crops that are harvested. 

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Synthetic equity is a form of deferred compensation that mirrors some of the benefits of real stock ownership without granting actual shares. It’s a contractual agreement between you and your employer that entitles you to a payout upon certain events—such as an IPO, acquisition, or surpassing earnings milestones.  

Companies use synthetic equity plans to motivate their personnel through growth-related incentives. In other words, it grants employees a sense of ownership without issuing shares or altering the business’s ownership structure. As the company succeeds and appreciates in value, so does your potential payout. Although you don’t own actual shares of company stock, you are compensated as if you did. 

READ: https://tinyurl.com/mr3upbn6

According to Carla McCabe, synthetic equity programs also have a significant tax advantage to both business owners and the key employees.

For example, when a key employee receives shares under the firm’s synthetic equity program, the IRS does not recognize that receipt as taxable income to the employee until he or she actually receives the money. This usually occurs when the firm is sold or when the employee retires and is cashed out (assuming the employee’s synthetic shares are vested). This is very attractive considering that regular shares are taxed as ordinary income and the employee basically has to pay the associated tax even though he or she didn’t receive any cash.

Of course, all this begs the question: Why would a company offer synthetic equity instead of actual equity?  

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DOOMSCROLLING & DOOMSURFING: Defined

By Dr. David Edward Marcinko MBA MEd

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Two years ago, prior to the 2022 election, mental health experts alerted the medical world to their version of an assessment scale for yet another new condition – “doomscrolling.”

As defined by the National Library of Medicine in the article, “Constant exposure to negative news on social media and news feeds could take the form of ‘doomscrolling’ which is commonly defined as a habit of scrolling through social media and news feeds where users obsessively seek for depressing and negative information.”

And so, formally Doomscrolling or doomsurfing is the act of spending an excessive amount of time reading large quantities of news, particularly negative news, on the web and social media. Doomscrolling can also be defined as the excessive consumption of short-form videos or social media content for an excessive period of time without stopping. The concept was coined around 2020, particularly in the context of the COVID pandemic.

Surveys and studies suggest doomscrolling is predominant among youth. It can be considered a form of internet addiction disorder. In 2019, a study by the National Academy of Sciences found that it can be linked to a decline in mental and physical health. Numerous reasons for doomscrolling have been cited, including negativity bias and FOMO [fear of missing out], and attempts at gaining control over uncertainty.

QUERY: What about the roaring stock market, post the 2024 presidential election. Fundamental analysis or FOMO?

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STOCK MARKET: Capitalization, Depth, Maker, Neutral and Order

By Staff Reporters

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Market Capitalization: Market capitalization is the market value of all the equity of a company’s common and preferred shares. It is usually estimated by multiplying the stock price by the number of shares for each share class and summing the results.

Market Depth: The degree to which a market can execute large market orders without impacting the price of a security. For example, a “deep” market for a stock will have a sufficient number of both bid and ask orders to keep a big order from significantly moving the security’s price.

Market Maker: A market maker exists to “create a market” for specific company securities by being willing to buy and sell those securities at a specified displayed price and quantity to broker-dealer firms that are members of the exchange. These firms help keep financial markets liquid by making it easier for investors to buy and sell securities–they ensure that there is always someone to buy and sell to at the time of trade.

Market Neutral: Equity market neutral strategies seek to eliminate the risks of the equity market by holding up to 100% of net assets in long equity positions and up to 100% of net assets in short equity positions. These strategies attempt to exploit differences in stock prices by being long and short in stocks within the same sector, industry, market capitalization, etc. If successful, these strategies should generate returns independent of the equity market. Equity market neutral portfolios have two key sources of return:

  • the Treasury Bill return (the interest on proceeds from short sales held in cash as collateral)
  • the difference (the “spread”) between the return on the long positions and the return on the short positions. Stock picking, rather than broad market moves, should drive most of a market-neutral strategy’s total return (save for any return from the 100% cash position).

It’s important to point out that here is the risk of theoretical unlimited amount of loss with short selling, (i.e. the price of the short-sold stocks increases; the long position can only go down to $0).

Market Order: An order placed with a bank or brokerage firm to immediately buy or sell a security at the best available current price. May also be referred to as an “unrestricted order.”

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PRIVATE Equity

DEFINITIONS

By Staff Reporters

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Private equity consists of investments made directly into private companies that are not quoted on a public exchange. The majority of private equity consists of institutional investors and accredited investors who can commit large sums of money for long periods of time.

Accredited Investors: https://www.investopedia.com/terms/a/accreditedinvestor.asp

Private equity investments often demand long holding periods to allow for a turnaround of a distressed company or a liquidity event such as an initial public offering or sale to a public company.

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MUNICIPALS: Securities, Yield Curve and Yield Ratio

By Dr. David Edward Marcinko MBA MEd

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Municipal Securities (munis): Debt securities typically issued by or on behalf of U.S. state and local governments, their agencies or authorities to raise money for a variety of public purposes, including financing for state and local governments as well as financing for specific projects and public facilities. In addition to their specific set of issuers, the defining characteristic of munis is their tax status. The interest income earned on most munis is exempt from federal income taxes. Interest payments are also generally exempt from state taxes if the bond owner resides within the state that issued the security. The same rule applies to local taxes.

Another interesting characteristic of munis: Individuals, rather than institutions, make up the largest investor base. In part because of these characteristics, munis tend to have certain performance attributes, including higher after-tax returns than other fixed income securities of comparable maturity and credit quality and low volatility relative to other fixed-income sectors.

The two main types of munis are general obligation bonds (GOs) and revenue bonds. GOs are munis secured by the full faith and credit of the issuer and usually supported by the issuer’s taxing power. Revenue bonds are secured by the charges tied to the use of the facilities financed by the bonds.

Municipal Yield Curve: The yield curve that illustrates the yields of a certain type of municipal security at its various maturities.

Municipal Yield Ratio: A yield ratio most often used to determine the relative value of municipal securities compared with U.S. Treasury securities. The ratio consists of the yield of a municipal security of a certain maturity divided by the yield of a U.S. Treasury security of the same maturity.

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IRS FORM 1099-K: Changes and Implementation?

By Staff Reporters

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2024 LATE YEAR UPDATE

Who sends Form 1099-K?

Payment card companies, payment apps and online marketplaces are required to fill out Form 1099-K and send it to the IRS each year. They must also send a copy to you by January 31st. 2025

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Who gets Form 1099-K:

You should get Form 1099-K for these situations:

1. If you take direct payment by credit or bank card for selling goods or providing services

If your customers or clients pay you directly by credit, debit or gift card, you’ll get a Form 1099-K from your payment processor or payment settlement entity, no matter how many payments you got or how much they were for.

Find what to do with Form 1099-K.

2. If you used a payment app or online marketplace and received a Form 1099-K

A payment app or online marketplace is required to send you a Form 1099-K if the payments you received for goods or services total over $5,000. However, they can send you a Form 1099-K with lower amounts. Whether or not you receive a Form 1099-K, you must still report any income on your tax return.

This includes payments for any:

  • Goods you sell, including personal items such as clothing or furniture
  • Services you provide
  • Property you rent

The payments can be made through any:

  • Payment app
  • Online community marketplace
  • Craft or maker marketplace
  • Auction site
  • Car sharing or ride-hailing platform
  • Ticket exchange or resale site
  • Crowdfunding platform
  • Freelance marketplace 

If you accept payments on different platforms, you could get more than one Form 1099-K.

Personal payments from family and friends should not be reported on Form 1099-K because they are not payments for goods or services.

Find what to do with Form 1099-K.

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DAILY UPDATE: Retail Pharmacies Down as the Stock Market Rally Stall Out

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Rite Aid filed for bankruptcy last October, and CVS and Walgreens reported steep losses over 2024.

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STOCKS UP

  • AT&T climbed 4.58% thanks to a few big announcements during its investor day, including returning over $40 billion to shareholders via dividends and stock buybacks over the next three years.
  • Palantir popped 6.88% after the US government gave the cybersecurity darling the green light to let its cloud offerings handle classified data. It also helped that Barrons expects the company will be added to the Nasdaq 100 in 2025.
  • Speaking of Palantir, BigBear.ai soared 28.64% after the server company was touted as the next Palantir by the Economic Times.
  • Data center company Credo Technology Group skyrocketed 47.89% thanks to an impressive earnings report and a glowing fiscal forecast.

STOCKS DOWN

  • US Steel dropped 8.01% on President-elect Trump’s declaration that he will block the company’s acquisition by Nippon Steel.
  • Tesla sank 1.59% after a Delaware judge once again blocked Elon Musk’s $56 billion pay package. The case will go back to court yet again, and may eventually reach the Supreme Court.
  • Intel tumbled another 6.10% two days after CEO Pat Gelsinger was fired happily decided to retire.
  • The children aren’t alright: Children’s Place crashed 24.15% after the children’s clothing retailer announced its turnaround isn’t going so well.
  • South Korean stocks took a beating after the country’s president declared martial law. The country’s largest online retailer, Coupang, sank 3.74%, steel manufacturer Posco Holdings dropped 4.32%, and Samsung tumbled 3.71%.

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Here’s where the major benchmarks ended:

  •  The S&P 500® index (SPX) rose 2.73 points (0.05%) to 6,049.88; the Dow Jones Industrial Average® ($DJI) fell 76.47 points (–0.17%) to 44,705.53; and the NASDAQ Composite® ($COMP) added 76.96 points (0.40%) to 19,480.91.
  • The 10-year Treasury note yield added three basis points to 4.22% after falling below 4.17% at one point.
  • The CBOE Volatility Index® (VIX)held steady at 13.39.

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BOND YIELDS: Real and Negative Returns

DEFINITIONS

By Dr. David Edward Marcinko MBA MEd

SPONSOR: http://www.MarcinkoAssociates.com

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Real Bond Yield: For most bonds and other fixed-income securities, real yield is simply the yield you see listed online or in newspapers minus the premium added to help counteract the effects of inflation. Most “nominal” fixed-income yields include an “inflation premium” that is typically priced into the yields to help offset the effects of inflation.

Real yields, such as those for TIPS, don’t have the inflation premium. As a result, TIPS yields and other real yields are typically lower than most nominal yields

Negative Bond Yield: In a normal bond market environment, bond yields are positive, and bond issuers (including governments) make interest payments to investors who lend them money.

In an abnormal, or negative-yield environment, investors essentially pay the bond issuer to hold their money.

CITE: https://www.r2library.com/Resource/Title/0826102549

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CYBER SALES WEEK [Is is a Real Thing?]

By Staff Reporters

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Cyber Week Defined

As first reported in the Forbes “Entrepreneurs” column on December 3rd, 2013: “Cyber Monday, the online counterpart to Black Friday, has been gaining unprecedented popularity – to the point where Cyber Sales are continuing on throughout the week.”

In fact, Peter Greenberg, Travel Editor for CBS News, further advises: “If you want a real deal on Black Friday, stay away from the mall. Black Friday and Cyber Monday are all part of Cyber Sales Week 

CITE: https://www.r2library.com/Resource/Title/0826102549

And so, Cyber Monday isn’t over yet for this year 2024: It’s morphed into Cyber Week, the actual final iteration of sales during the Black Friday-Cyber Monday discount season of 2024. A substantial number of retailers are maintaining their Black Friday-level discounts through today and some through tomorrow and the entire week.

Yes-Cyber Week is a real thing, so got for it. Buy it! Charge it!

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DAILY UPDATE: Intel CEO Out, Stellantis CEO Down and Mega Caps Up!

MEDICAL EXECUTIVE-POST TODAY’S NEWSLETTER BRIEFING

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Essays, Opinions and Curated News in Health Economics, Investing, Business, Management and Financial Planning for Physician Entrepreneurs and their Savvy Advisors and Consultants

Serving Almost One Million Doctors, Financial Advisors and Medical Management Consultants Daily

A Partner of the Institute of Medical Business Advisors , Inc.

http://www.MedicalBusinessAdvisors.com

SPONSORED BY: Marcinko & Associates, Inc.

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The CEO Intel has been forced out after failing to return the American microchip company to the cutting edge, despite promises of billions from Joe Biden’s administration. Pat Gelsinger, who joined the Silicon Valley icon 45 years ago, said he had retired with immediate effect, three years after returning to the company with a pledge to resurrect US leadership in microchip technology.

CITE: https://www.r2library.com/Resource

STOCKS UP

  • Super Micro Computer has been declared innocent of financial wrongdoing by…Super Micro Computer. Shares popped 26.86% on news that the company’s internal investigation revealed nothing wrong with its finances.
  • Gap continues its hot streak, rising 6.45% today thanks to an upgrade from JPMorgan analysts who think the retailer could gain another 20% from here.
  • Dana isn’t just the name of your favorite dental hygiene technician—it’s also an auto parts manufacturer that received an upgrade from Barclays analysts today. Shares gained 13.30%.
  • XPeng announced record car deliveries last month. Shares of the Chinese automaker jumped 5.31%.

STOCKS DOWN

  • Archer Aviation is a company that makes flying taxis. If that doesn’t sound like a good investment, a lot of investors would agree: Short interest is mounting, pushing shares down 23.72% today. Competitor Joby Aviation dropped 9.39% as well.
  • Upstart Holdings sank 14.47% after the AI-powered lending company received a downgrade from JPMorgan analysts. LendingClub was downgraded as well, and fell 4.93%.
  • Not all Chinese automakers had a great Monday: Li Auto fell 3.72% after announcing car deliveries dropped 5.25% month over month.

CITE: https://tinyurl.com/2h47urt5

Here’s where the major benchmarks ended:

  • The S&P 500® index (SPX) rose 14.77 points (0.24%) to 6,047.15; the Dow Jones Industrial Average® ($DJI) fell 128.65 points (–0.29%) to 44,782.00; and the NASDAQ Composite® ($COMP) added 185.78 points (0.97%) to 19,403.95.
  • The 10-year Treasury note yield added two basis points to 4.20%. 
  • The CBOE Volatility Index® (VIX)eased to 13.44.

CITE: https://tinyurl.com/tj8smmes

Chrysler-parent Stellantis said CEO Carlos Tavares is stepping down, effective immediately, after the automaker’s sales and profit sharply declined this year. Shares dropped about 7% in Monday trading. Stellantis’s shares have fallen more than 40% this year. The company said Sunday that it wasn’t changing the financial guidance that it gave in October.

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DAILY UPDATE: S&P 500, Gold, Treasury Yields and Bitcoin

By Staff Reporters

BREAKING NEWS: President Joe Biden just pardoned his son,Hunter Biden, sparing the younger Biden a possible prison sentence for federal felony gun and tax convictions and reversing his past promises not to use the extraordinary powers of the presidency for the benefit of his family members.

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  • The short trading session didn’t stop the S&P 500 from hitting another new record today, and the S&P 500 and the Dow each wrapped up their best month of 2024 on a high note.
  • Meanwhile, November was the worst month for gold in over a year. Safe-haven investors sold the commodity while the US dollar soared following the election.
  • 10-year Treasury yields dropped to their lowest level in a month today as bond buyers bought in bulk.
  • Finally, bitcoin had one heck of a month. The crypto rose yet again today, and has climbed nearly 40% in November—though it has yet to break above $100,000.

CITE: https://www.r2library.com/Resource/Title/0826102549

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INVESTING: Absolute Return Fund

DEFINITION

SPONSOR: http://www.MarcinkoAssociates.com

By Staff Reporters

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As an investment vehicle, an absolute return fund seeks to make positive returns by employing investment management techniques that differ from traditional mutual funds.

Absolute return investment techniques include using short selling, futures, options, derivatives, arbitrage, leverage and unconventional assets.

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BLACK FRIDAY 2024: The Physician Micro-Economy

Is it Good for Retailers … but Bad for Doctors and Consumers?

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If Black Friday 2024 is anything like 2023, retailers may not be swimming in cash while shoppers bathe in savings. Black Friday deals drew 212 million shoppers to stores in fabulous 2010 and collectively spent $39 billion on products and services.

And, the average amount spent by a Black Friday shopper in 2010 was a whopping $365.34.

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Assessment

We predict Black Friday 2024 sales surpass 2023 with a slight increase over 20222 because of fewer shopping days; and the COVID pandemic explosion..

QUESTION: But, is Black Friday good for the [healthcare] economics sector post [thu] the pandemic? Do patients go shopping rather than to the doctor? What about inflation?

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Conclusion

Your thoughts and comments on this ME-P are appreciated.

Speaker: If you need a moderator or speaker for an upcoming event, Dr. David E. Marcinko; MBA – Publisher-in-Chief of the Medical Executive-Post – is available for seminar or speaking engagements. Contact: MarcinkoAdvisors@msn.com

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NAVIGATING STOCK MARKET CYCLES: From Bulls to Nvidia [AI Edition]

By Viataliy Katsenelson CFA

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I’m embarking on something I’ve never done before—I’ve enlisted AI to inform, educate, and maybe even entertain you. I took several essays I wrote and asked my bestie AI to transform them into a radio show-style conversation between two hosts. (The AI tool I used is Notebook LM, a product created by Google.) I didn’t write the scripts myself.

Here were my instructions to the AI: “Here’s my essay. I’m taking a break from writing. Educate, inform and entertain my readers.” That’s it. If what you hear doesn’t surprise you—or even shock you to your socks—I don’t know what will. The future is here.

These essays are just as relevant today as when I first wrote them this summer. You can read the original of the first essay here. Be sure to leave your comments about the conversation you’re about to hear, and feel free to share it with friends, enemies, or even random strangers.
Navigating Market Cycles: From Bulls to Nvidia – AI Edition
In this episode, my AI friends will discuss stock market math, sideways markets, the role of P/E in market cycles, impact of interest rates on P/E, economic analysis, Magnificent Seven stocks, NVIDIA, and a lot more.

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SALARY PRIME NUMBERS: Financial Success by Generation

By Staff Reporters

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According to HVL from Morning Brew, a new survey from financial services company Empower ignited a conversation about what monetary success means. Turns out, it depends on who you ask. Boomers believe that success means having an annual salary of about $100,000. Gen Z thinks your mom can’t brag about you to her dentist until you earn $600k/year. On average, respondents said success is making $270,000 annually.

Additionally, less than 40% of respondents said they considered themselves financially successful. Almost 50% don’t believe they will achieve the level of success they desire.

But there was some good news: Forty-three percent said their idea of success didn’t depend on a specific sum of money. And almost 60% said happiness is most important, as long as happiness is defined as “being able to spend money on the things and experiences that bring the most joy.”

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The NASDAQ, S&P 500, Dow and Treasury Yields Rise as Oil & Bitcoin Fall

By Staff Reporters

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  • The S&P 500 and NASDAQ stayed in the green all day, with the S&P 500 hitting yet another new all-time high, while the Dow clawed its way out of negative territory to reach a new high as well.
  • The minutes from the last Federal Reserve meeting revealed that central bankers feel rate cuts are still warranted, though they’ll need to be gradual. Treasury yields rose on the news.
  • Oil fell after Israel and Lebanon agreed on a ceasefire deal.
  • Bitcoin continues to fall further away from the promised land of $100,000 as traders begin logging off ahead of the holiday—though bulls believe this is just a pullback to gather momentum ahead of the final push.

CITE: https://www.r2library.com/Resource/Title/0826102549

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DAILY UPDATE: Semaglutide Drugs, CMS, Emory & UnitedHealthcare as Stock Markets Rise High

MEDICAL EXECUTIVE-POST TODAY’S NEWSLETTER BRIEFING

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Essays, Opinions and Curated News in Health Economics, Investing, Business, Management and Financial Planning for Physician Entrepreneurs and their Savvy Advisors and Consultants

Serving Almost One Million Doctors, Financial Advisors and Medical Management Consultants Daily

A Partner of the Institute of Medical Business Advisors , Inc.

http://www.MedicalBusinessAdvisors.com

SPONSORED BY: Marcinko & Associates, Inc.

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Daily Update Provided By Staff Reporters Since 2007.
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In breaking news, the Biden administration is attempting to cover anti-obesity drugs for weight loss under Medicare and Medicaid. A recent study finds 137 million people are eligible for semaglutide drugs nationwide.


Another insurer can claim victory against CMS after UnitedHealthcare prevailed in its star ratings lawsuit on Friday. The feds will now have to recalculate the scores.


And ... Emory Healthcare is looking to expand value-based care for more than 350,000 patients through a population health partnership with tech company Guidehealth.

CITE: https://www.r2library.com/Resource

STOCKS UP

Uncrustables taste almost as good as today’s gains: J.M. Smucker rose 5.70% thanks to a beat-and-raise quarter for the company.

  • Walmart gained 2.02% on a report that Target is losing its high-end customers to the low-price retailer. Target sank 3.03%.
  • Semiconductor stock Semtech rose another 18.10% after announcing stronger-than-expected earnings last night.

STOCKS DOWN

  • Amgen’s new drug did help patients lose up to 20% of their weight in a given year, but that wasn’t enough to impress shareholders, who kicked shares down 4.76%.
  • Kohl’s plummeted 17.01% after the retailer met revenue expectations but missed on earnings last quarter. It definitely doesn’t help that the CEO announced his retirement last night.
  • Abercrombie & Fitch’s turnaround is well underway, and the company beat earnings forecasts last quarter and projected strong holiday sales. But it still fell short of shareholder expectations, and the stock sank 5.10% today.
  • Best Buy rounded out retailer earnings today, dropping 4.89% after missing revenue expectations last quarter and cutting its full-year guidance.
  • Zoom Communications changed its name, but that wasn’t enough to save the company from a 6.31% decline today thanks to its tepid fiscal outlook.

CITE: https://tinyurl.com/2h47urt5

Here’s where the major benchmarks ended:

  •  The S&P 500® index (SPX)rose 34.26 points (0.57%) to 6,021.63; the Dow Jones Industrial Average® ($DJI) added 123.74 points (0.28%) to 44,860.31; and the NASDAQ Composite® ($COMP) gained 119.46 points (0.63%) to 19,174.30.
  • The 10-year Treasury note yield climbed four basis points to 4.3% after Trump’s tariff comments, but shorter-term yields fell after the Fed minutes, keeping the yield curve slightly out of inversion.
  • The CBOE Volatility Index® (VIX)dropped to 14.19, near a two-week low.

CITE: https://tinyurl.com/tj8smmes

Visualize: How private equity tangled banks in a web of debt, from the Financial Times.

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FIXED FINANCIAL SPREADS FOR PHYSICIANS: Duration, Sectors, Widening, Tightening and Other Fixed Income Strategies

DEFINITIONS FOR PHYSICIANS

By Dr. David Edward Marcinko MBA MEd

SPONSOR: http://www.MarcinkoAssociates.com

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Spread duration is a risk measure, expressed in years, that estimates the price sensitivity of a fixed income investment to a 100 basis point change in credit spreads relative to similar-maturity Treasuries.

Spread sectors (aka “spread products,” “spread securities”) in fixed income parlance, are typically non-Treasury securities that usually trade in the fixed income markets at higher yields than same-maturity U.S. Treasury securities. The yield difference between Treasuries and non-Treasuries is called the “spread”), hence the name “spread sectors” for non-Treasuries.

These sectors–such as corporate-issued securities and mortgage-backed securities (MBS–typically trade at higher yields (spreads) than Treasuries because they usually have relatively lower credit quality and more credit / default risk and / or they have more prepayment risk.

CITE: https://www.r2library.com/Resource/Title/0826102549

Spread widening, tightening are changes in spreads that reflect changes in relative value, with “spread widening” usually indicating relative price depreciation and “spread tightening” indicating relative price appreciation.

Spreads (aka “interest-rate spreads”, “maturity spreads,” “yield spreads” or “credit spreads”)

In fixed income parlance, spreads are simply measured differences or gaps that exists between two interest rates or yields that are being compared with each other. Spreads typically exist and are measured between fixed income securities of the same credit quality, but different maturities, or of the same maturity, but different credit quality.

Changes in spreads typically reflect changes in relative value, with “spread widening” usually indicating relative price depreciation of the securities whose yields are increasing most, and “spread tightening” indicating relative price appreciation of the securities whose yields are declining most (or remaining relatively fixed while other yields are rising to meet them). Value-oriented investors typically seek to buy when spreads are relatively wide and sell after spreads tighten.

CITE: https://www.r2library.com/Resource/Title/0826102549


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DAILY UPDATE: Health Insurance Affordability as Stock Markets Broadly Rise

MEDICAL EXECUTIVE-POST TODAY’S NEWSLETTER BRIEFING

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Essays, Opinions and Curated News in Health Economics, Investing, Business, Management and Financial Planning for Physician Entrepreneurs and their Savvy Advisors and Consultants

Serving Almost One Million Doctors, Financial Advisors and Medical Management Consultants Daily

A Partner of the Institute of Medical Business Advisors , Inc.

http://www.MedicalBusinessAdvisors.com

SPONSORED BY: Marcinko & Associates, Inc.

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Daily Update Provided By Staff Reporters Since 2007.
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The Commonwealth Fund’s 2024 biennial health insurance survey, released November 21, found that though 79% of US adults had continuous health insurance for 12 months, 23% were under insured, meaning they have health insurance and still can’t afford care. About 56% of those surveyed had adequate insurance coverage all year.

CITE: https://www.r2library.com/Resource

STOCKS UP

  • Rocket Lab rocketed (sorry) 3.44% to a new record high after launching not one, but two different rockets in two different hemispheres in a single day.
  • Bath & Body Works soared 16.51% on a strong beat-and-raise quarter.
  • Robinhood jumped 3.27% after Morgan Stanley analysts doubled their price target for the investing app.
  • Super Micro Computer surged yet another 15.87%, more than doubling in the last seven days, and shareholders cheered its comeback.
  • Hims & Hers Health climbed 23.77% on the news that the new head of the FDA may be an ally.
  • Flying taxi company Vertical Aerospace popped 45.51% after announcing an additional $50 million in funding from one of its biggest shareholders.

STOCKS DOWN

  • Defense contractor stocks got a double whammy today: Hopes of a ceasefire between Israel and Hezbollah, combined with Elon Musk’s declaration on X that buying manned military aircraft is wasteful. Lockheed Martin fell 3.76%, Northrop Grumman dropped 2.39%, and Raytheon Technologies parent company RTX Corp. fell 1.74%.
  • Speaking of Musk, Tesla sank 3.96% after California announced it may exclude the automaker from incentives that encourage drivers to buy EVs in the state.
  • Pipeline operator Oneok lost 4.72% on the news that it will acquire the remaining portion of EnLink Midstream that it doesn’t already own.
  • After rallying last week thanks to its inclusion in the S&P 500, Texas Pacific Land sank 6.71% today as investors took profits.

CITE: https://tinyurl.com/2h47urt5

Here’s where the major benchmarks ended:

  •  The SPX rose 18.03 points (0.30%) to 5,987.37; the $DJI added 440.06 points (0.99%) to 44,736.57; and the NASDAQ Composite® ($COMP) gained 51.18 points (0.27%) to 19,054.84.
  • The 10-year Treasury note yield fell 15 basis points to 4.27%.
  • The CBOE Volatility Index® (VIX)dropped to 14.74, the lowest since November 14.

CITE: https://tinyurl.com/tj8smmes

Visualize: How private equity tangled banks in a web of debt, from the Financial Times.

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CONTRAST EFFECT: Cognitive Bias

FOR FINANCIAL ADVISORS

By Dr. David Edward Marcinko MBA MEd CMP

SPONSOR: http://www.CertifiedMedicalPlanner.org

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Sensation, emotion and cognition work by Contrast Effect [cognitive bias]. 

Now, such perception is not only on an absolute scale, it also functions relative to prior stimuli.  This is why room temperature water feels hot when experienced after being exposed to the cold.  It is also why the cessation of negative emotions “feels” so good. 

Cognitive bias functioning also works on this principle.  So one’s ability to analyze information and draw conclusions is very much related to the context with in which the analysis takes place, and to what information was originally available.  This is why it is so important to manage one’s own expectations as well as those of a financial advisor’s or stock broker’s clients. 

For example, a client is much more likely to be satisfied with a 10% portfolio return if they were expecting 7% than if they were hoping for 15%.

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BID/ASK SPREAD: Basis Points with Formulas

By Staff Reporters

SPONSOR: http://www.MarcinkoAssociates.com

DEFINITIONS

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Basis Points are used in financial literature to express values that are carried out to two decimal places (hundredths of a percentage point), particularly ratios, such as yields, fees, and returns. Basis points describe values that are typically on the right side of the decimal point–one basis point equals one one-hundredth of a percentage point (0.01%). So 25 basis points equals 0.25%, and 50 basis points equals 0.50%.

Only when basis points equal or exceed 100 does the value move to the left of the decimal point–100 basis points equals 1.00%, 500 basis points equals 5.00%, etc.

CITE: https://www.r2library.com/Resource/Title/0826102549

Bid/Ask Spread (also known as bid/offer spread) is the difference between the National Best Bid and the National Best Offer, which represents the implied cost to trade a security.

As compensation for the risk taken, the market maker (or dealer) earns the bid/offer spread in exchange for facilitating the trade. Wider spreads generally indicate higher costs associated with trading the underlying assets in the ETF, hedging costs, inventory management costs, and general market risk.

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Some Retirement Statistics and Questions for Physicians

Transitioning to the End of Your Medical Career

SPONSOR: https://marcinkoassociates.com/

 BY DR. DAVID EDWARD MARCINKO MBA MEd CMP®

CMP logo

SPONSOR: http://www.CertifiedMedicalPlanner.org

With the PP-ACA, increased compliance regulations and higher tax rates impending from the Biden administration – not to mention the corona pandemic, venture capital based healthcare corporations and telehealth – physicians are more concerned about their retirement and retirement planning than ever before; and with good reason. After payroll taxes, dividend taxes, limited itemized deductions, the new 3.8% surtax on net investment income and an extra 0.9% Medicare tax, for every dollar earned by a high earning physician, almost 50 cents can go to taxes!

Introduction

Retirement planning is not about cherry picking the best stocks, ETFs or mutual funds or how to beat the short term fluctuations in the market. It’s a disciplined long term strategy based on scientific evidence and a prudent process. You increase the probability of success by following this process and monitoring on a regular basis to make sure you are on track.

General Surveys

According to a survey from the Employee Benefit Research Institute [EBRI] and Greenwald & Associates; nearly half of workers without a retirement plan were not at all confident in their financial security, compared to 11 percent for those who participated in a plan, according to the 2014 Retirement Confidence Survey (RCS).

In addition, 35 percent of workers have not saved any money for retirement, while only 57 percent are actively saving for retirement. Thirty-six percent of workers said the total value of their savings and investments—not including the value of their home and defined benefit plan—was less than $1,000, up from 29 percent in the 2013 survey. But, when adjusted for those without a formal retirement plan, 73 percent have saved less than $1,000.

Debt is also a concern, with 20 percent of workers saying they have a major problem with debt. Thirty-eight percent indicate they have a minor problem with debt. And, only 44 percent of workers said they or their spouse have tried to calculate how much money they’ll need to save for retirement. But, those who have done the calculation tend to save more.

The biggest shift in the 24 years has been the number of workers who plan to work later in life. In 1991, 84 percent of workers indicated they plan to retire by age 65, versus only 9 percent who planned to work until at least age 70. In 2014, 50 percent plan on retiring by age 65; with 22 percent planning to work until they reach 70.

Physician Statistics

Now, compare and contrast the above to these statistics according to a 2018 survey of physicians on financial preparedness by American Medical Association [AMA] Insurance. The statistics are still alarming:

  • The top personal financial concern for all physicians is having enough money to retire.
  • Only 6% of physicians consider themselves ahead of schedule in retirement preparedness.
  • Nearly half feel they were behind
  • 41% of physicians average less than $500,000 in retirement savings.
  • Nearly 70% of physicians don’t have a long term care plan.
  • Only half of US physicians have a completed estate plan including an updated will and Medical directives.

Retired MD Doctor Retirement Gift Idea Retiring - Doctor ...

Thoughts to Ponder

And so, to help make your golden years comfortable and worry free, here are ten important retirement questions for all physicians to consider:

  1. How much money do you need to retire?
  2. What is your retirement cash flow?
  3. What is your retirement vision?
  4. How to stay on retirement track?
  5. How to maximize retirement plan contributions such as 401(k) or 403(b)?
  6. How to maximize retirement income from retirement plans?
  7. What are some other retirement plan savings options?
  8. What is your retirement plan and investing style?
  9. What is the role of social security in retirement planning?
  10. How to integrate retirement with estate planning?

The opinion of a competent Certified Medical Planner® can assist.

ASSESSMENT: Your thoughts, comments and input are appreciated.

Comprehensive Financial Planning Strategies for Doctors and Advisors: Best Practices from Leading Consultants and Certified Medical Planners™

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BONDS: Tobacco

By Staff Reporters

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Tobacco bonds are a form of municipal debt securities and securitized debt whose payment obligations are tied to a master medical lawsuit settlement agreement between 46 states and several major U.S. tobacco companies.

In exchange for the states settling their lawsuits against the tobacco industry for recovery of tobacco-related health care costs and exempting the tobacco companies from private tort liability regarding harm caused by tobacco use, the companies agreed to curtail or cease certain tobacco marketing practices and to pay, in perpetuity, various annual payments to the states to compensate for the medical costs of tobacco-related illnesses.

These tobacco industry payments have been securitized into municipal bonds. One underlying risk, among others, is that if certain conditions are met, the tobacco companies may reduce or suspend part of their payments.

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DAILY UPDATE: Bitcoin, MicroStrategy and Credit Card Competition as the DJIA Hits a Record

MEDICAL EXECUTIVE-POST TODAY’S NEWSLETTER BRIEFING

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Essays, Opinions and Curated News in Health Economics, Investing, Business, Management and Financial Planning for Physician Entrepreneurs and their Savvy Advisors and Consultants

Serving Almost One Million Doctors, Financial Advisors and Medical Management Consultants Daily

A Partner of the Institute of Medical Business Advisors , Inc.

http://www.MedicalBusinessAdvisors.com

SPONSORED BY: Marcinko & Associates, Inc.

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Daily Update Provided By Staff Reporters Since 2007.
How May We Serve You?
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Bitcoin jumped about 130% this year, but MicroStrategy has skyrocketed almost 500%.

CITE: https://www.r2library.com/Resource

The proposed Credit Card Competition Act (CCCA) could devastate credit card rewards at the national level if passed. Now, states are getting involved too Read on.

CITE: https://tinyurl.com/2h47urt5

STOCKS UP

Ross Stores rose 2.19% after beating earnings estimates but missing sales forecasts last quarter, with shoppers spending less thanks to inflation.

  • MicroStrategy tumbled big time yesterday after a short seller report highlighted the risk inherent in betting it all on bitcoin, but the stock recovered 6.19% today.
  • Super Micro Computer continues to recover from the brink of defeat, rising another 11.62% as investors beg the tech company’s forgiveness for ever doubting it.
  • Data analytics company Elastic sprang 14.77% higher today on a strong earnings report highlighted by rising demand from customers building AI applications.

STOCKS DOWN

Tax-filing company Intuit sank 5.68% after reporting strong earnings last quarter but forecasting weaker results this quarter.

  • Reddit dropped 7.18% after a one-two punch from shareholders: Tencent Holdings sold a chunk of its stake in the social media company, while Advance Magazine Publishers is selling its stake but, through some financial trickery, is keeping control of the shares.
  • Palo Alto Networks may have beaten earnings expectations yesterday afternoon, but the cybersecurity stock fell 3.61% after shareholders weren’t impressed by its full-year guidance.

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Here’s where the major benchmarks ended:

  •  The S&P 500® index (SPX) rose 20.63 points (0.35%) to 5,969.34 to end the week up 1.68%; the $DJI gained 426.16 points (0.97%) to 44,296.51 to end the week up 1.96%; and the NASDAQ Composite® ($COMP) added 31.23 points (0.16%) to 19,003.65 to end the week up 1.73%.
  • The 10-year Treasury note yield fell two basis points to 4.41% and is down two basis points for the week, while the 2-year note yield rose seven basis points this week as rate cut odds fell.
  • The CBOE Volatility Index® (VIX)fell sharply to 15.31 and finished slightly lower for the week.

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MORTGAGE BACKED SECURITIES: Prepayment Risk

DEFINITION

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Prepayment risk is typically used in reference to mortgage-backed securities. It refers to the risk that mortgage refinancing activity might increase when market interest rates decline, which is generally not favorable for MBS investors.

For example, when homeowners refinance their mortgages, MBS investors are “prepaid,” shortening the life of their investments and forcing investors to reinvest the proceeds under lower interest rate conditions than what were most likely prevailing at the time of the original MBS investment.

Price adjustments for prepayment risk are one factor that helps explain why MBS, despite their generally high credit quality, have higher yields than comparable-maturity Treasury securities.

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DAILY UPDATE: Google and Ford Motor as Stock Markets Rise and Broaden

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The DOJ asked a judge to force Google to sell its Chrome browser, following his ruling that Google maintained an illegal monopoly in search.
Ford said it is cutting 4,000 jobs in Europe, about 14% of its workforce on the continent, citing weak demand for EVs and competition from Chinese cars.

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STOCKS UP

  • Data analytics firm Snowflake soared 32.71% after posting impressive earnings, including a 28% increase in revenue last quarter.
  • BJ’s Wholesale Club has had an okay year, but its latest earnings report gave shareholders plenty to cheer. The big news: BJ’s is increasing its membership fee for the first time in seven years. Shares rose 8.24%.
  • Despite the fact that the world’s largest farming equipment manufacturer sees a big slowdown ahead, Deere beat earnings estimates last quarter, which was enough to help shares climb 8.12%.

STOCKS DOWN

It took a second, but it’s finally registering that Alphabet may be forced by the Department of Justice to divest its popular Chrome browser. Shares fell 4.74% as investors digest this stark reality.

  • Speaking of search engines, Baidu sank 5.90% after the Chinese tech stock missed analyst estimates on both earnings and revenue last quarter.
  • Speaking of Chinese companies, PDD Holdings, parent company of online retailer Temu, reported higher earnings and revenue last quarter—but it still fell short of analyst forecasts. Shares dropped 10.64%.
  • Speaking of struggling retailers, Beyond Inc., the company that owns Bed, Bath & Beyond and Overstock.com, was supposed to invest $40 million into struggling retailer The Container Store. Unfortunately for both, the deal fell through. Shares of Beyond sank 2.87%, while The Container Store dropped 9.79%.

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Here’s where the major benchmarks ended:

  • The SPX buoyed 31.60 points (0.53%) to 5,948.71; the Dow Jones Industrial Average® ($DJI) rose 461.88 points (1.06%) to 43,870.35; and the NASDAQ Composite® ($COMP) stayed relatively flat, up 6.28 points (0.03%) to 18,972.42.
  • The 10-year Treasury note yield added two basis points to 4.42%, staying rangebound.
  • The CBOE Volatility Index® (VIX) slipped to 16.87, still above last week’s levels.

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Visualize: How private equity tangled banks in a web of debt, from the Financial Times.

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GROSSMAN-STIGLITZ: Financial Information Paradox

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The Grossman-Stiglitz Paradox was introduced by Sanford J. Grossman and Joseph Stiglitz in a joint publication in American Economic Review in 1980 that argues perfectly informationally efficient markets are an impossibility since, if prices perfectly reflected available information, there is no profit to gathering information, in which case there would be little reason to trade and markets would eventually collapse.

IOW: According to colleague Eugene Schmuckler PhD MBA CTS, the Grossman-Stiglitz paradox is the inability to recoup the cost of obtaining market information and thus implies that efficient markets cannot exist.

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DAILY UPDATE: GoodRx as Stocks End Flat

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It’s not all good news for GoodRx.

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STOCKS UP

Williams-Sonoma soared 27.50% to a record high after the home goods store beat top and bottom line earnings expectations. Its operating profit margin jumped to 17.8% from 17% last year, and the company said its board greenlit a $1 billion stock buyback plan.

  • Wix jumped 14.31% on a solid beat for its third quarter. Profit for the software firm reached $0.46 per share, compared to the $0.12 per share it reported last year.
  • Lemonade rose 16.04% after Morgan Stanley upgraded the insurance company from “underweight” to “equal-weight.” At its investor day, Lemonade unveiled a plan to juice its premiums from $1 billion to $10 billion over the next several years.

STOCKS DOWN

  • Ford said it was cutting 4,000 jobs in Europe, about 14% of its workforce on the continent, citing weak demand for EVs and competition from Chinese cars. Shares fell 2.90%.
  • Qualcomm dropped 6.34% after its first Investor Day in three years disappointed. On Tuesday, the chipmaker revealed its big plans to expand from its bread-and-butter smartphone business into making chips for cars and PCs.
  • Elf sank 2.23% after short seller Carson Block, the founder of Muddy Waters Research, accused the beauty company of inflating revenue.

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Here’s where the major benchmarks ended:

  •  The S&P 500® index (SPX) stayed mostly flat, up 0.13 points (0.0%) to 5,917.11; the Dow Jones Industrial Average® ($DJI) rose 139.53 points (0.32%) to 43,408.47; and the NASDAQ Composite® ($COMP) fell 21.32 points (0.11%) to 18,966.14. 
  • The 10-year Treasury note yield added four basis points to 4.41%.
  • The CBOE Volatility Index® (VIX) climbed to 17.26, near recent highs.

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Visualize: How private equity tangled banks in a web of debt, from the Financial Times.

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Stocks, Treasuries, Gold and Bitcoin

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  • Stocks sank yesterday on news that Russian President Vladimir Putin lowered the threshold for using nuclear weapons, retaliation against the US for allowing Ukraine to use American-made long-range missiles. The NASDAQ and S&P 500 managed to recover, but the DJIA stayed all day in the red.
  • Treasury yields dropped as bonds rose.
  • Gold popped as traders sought safety, as the commodity benefited from the US dollar pulling back from a recent one-year high.
  • Bitcoin continued to climb slowly but surely, reaching another new all-time high.

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CBOE: Chicago Board Options Exchange [Volatility Indexes]

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RELATED DEFINITIONS

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Volatility indexes are forward-looking measures of the market’s expectations of volatility (or how much a stock index’s price moves). The CBOE manages and publishes three of the most widely used volatility indexes based on three major stock indexes:

The VIX Index tracks the expected 30-day future volatility of the S&P 500 Index.

The VXN Index tracks the expected 30-day future volatility of the NASDAQ-100 Index.

The VXD Index tracks the expected 30-day future volatility of the Dow Jones Industrial Average Index.

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SECURITY ORDERS: Stop-Loss and Stop-Limit

By Dr. David Edward Marcinko MBA MEd

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A Stop order, also known as a “stop-loss order,” a stop order is an order placed with a bank or brokerage firm to either buy or sell a security after it reaches a specified price. Once the price is reached, the stop order becomes a market order, meaning there is no guarantee that an order will be completely filled at the specified stop price.

MORE: https://medicalexecutivepost.com/2024/08/30/stock-orders-positions-doctors-should-know/

A Stop-limit order is order placed with a bank or brokerage firm to buy or sell a fixed amount of an investment after it reaches a specified or better price, combining the features of a stop order and a limit order.

MORE: https://medicalexecutivepost.com/2024/08/07/about-securities-order-and-position-types/

A stop-limit order requires investors to set two price points: the first initiates the stop (the order to buy or sell) and the second sets the limit, or price beyond which the investor would not like to buy or sell. The investor also sets a time frame for which the order is valid before being cancelled. If the investor’s price cannot be met during the specified time frame, the order will be cancelled.

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DAILY UPDATE: All About the Stock Markets

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  • Stocks ended the day mixed, with the Dow sinking into the red while the S&P 500 and NASDAQ kicked off the week on a positive note thanks to gains from tech stocks.
  • Oil popped on a double-whammy of news: Long-range, US-made ballistic missiles launched from Ukraine into Russia might disrupt oil supply, while the shutdown of Norway’s Johan Sverdrup oil field due to a power outage will definitely disrupt oil supply.
  • Crypto continued its hot streak today: Bitcoin popped back above $90,000, giving other cryptocurrencies a boost.
  • Bitcoin’s boom has certainly helped MicroStrategy, which announced today that it purchased 51,780 bitcoins for approximately $4.6 billion in cash, or roughly $88,627 per bitcoin, in the last week alone.

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STOCKS UP

The new Trump Trade continues: The president-elect’s selection of Liberty Energy CEO Chris Wright to lead the Department of Energy gave Liberty a 4.85% boost today. Wright is also on the board of nuclear company Oklo, which popped 14.83%.

  • Speaking of Trump, Trump Media & Technology Group soared 16.65% on the news that it may purchase crypto trading firm Bakkt.
  • Netflix disappointed viewers with its glitchy showing of Jake Paul vs. Mike Tyson, but shareholders forgave the company after it announced record viewership of the fight. Shares climbed 2.80%.
  • CVS Health gained 5.41% on news that it struck a deal with activist investor Glenview Capital Management to add four new seats to its board.
  • Robinhood jumped 8.29% to a new all-time high thanks to an upgrade from Needham analysts giving the investing app a “buy” rating due to its crypto offerings under a pro-crypto Trump presidency.
  • Warner Bros. Discovery rose 2.71% on a Wall Street Journal report that it has settled its legal dispute with the NBA, guaranteeing broadcast rights for the next decade.

STOCKS DOWN

  • Nvidia isn’t often in this section of the newsletter, but the semiconductor leader sank 1.29% today on a report from The Information that its new Blackwell chips are prone to overheating.
  • Palantir popped after moving over to the Nasdaq last week, but the red-hot software stock dropped 6.86% as investors collected profits.
  • Redfin may help you buy a house, but the online real estate brokerage is a “sell,” according to Goldman Sachs. The Wall Street firm cited low home sales, low affordability, and low chances of success in a competitive market. Shares fell 4.42%.
  • Uber dropped 5.35% to a new 52-week low on the threat of Tesla’s robotaxis ruling the road thanks to a Trump administration that seems keen on cutting self-driving regulations.

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Here’s where the major benchmarks ended:

  •  The SPX was up 23.00 points (0.4%) to 5893.62; the Dow Jones Industrial Average® ($DJI) fell 55.39 points (0.1%) to 43,389.6; and the NASDAQ Composite® ($COMP) was up 111.69 points (0.6%) to 18,791.81.
  • The 10-year Treasury note yield fell one basis point to 4.41%.
  • The CBOE Volatility Index® (VIX) eased to 15.57.

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Visualize: How private equity tangled banks in a web of debt, from the Financial Times.

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DAILY UPDATE: Spirit Airlines in Chapter 11 as Nvidia Rises and Target, Lowes & Walmart Highlight Stock Earnings Week

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Spirit Airlines said Monday it has filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection after struggling with losses, growing debt and a failed merger during the post-pandemic travel lull. The company said in a stock market statement that it had secured a prearranged deal with bondholders that includes £300 million in financing to keep it afloat, with the business planning to end its bankruptcy in the first quarter of 2025.

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Analysts are expecting Nvidia, the world’s largest publicly traded company, to show quarterly sales of ~$33 billion, up 10% from the previous quarter and 83% year over year, but they also warn the mind-blowing growth of the chip maker could begin to slow.

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And, reports this week from Walmart, Target, Lowe’s, and other retailers will offer a peek at consumer health.

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DEDICATED: Short Stock Bias Strategies

By Staff Reporters

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Dedicated short bias strategies short stocks expected to depreciate as a result of company-specific catalysts or falling markets. These strategies maintain a net short exposure to the equity market, seeking to reduce equity portfolio volatility and offer the potential to earn returns in falling equity markets. Of course, they may be challenged in periods of rising equity markets.

From Shorting to a Short Bias

Prior to the long-term bull market for U.S. equities that took place in the 1980s and 1990s, many hedge funds used a dedicated short strategy, rather than a dedicated short bias strategy.

The dedicated short strategy was one that exclusively took short positions. The dedicated short funds were virtually destroyed during the bull market, so the dedicated short bias fund emerged and took a more balanced approach. The long holdings are enough to keep losses manageable, although funds can still run into problems with leverage and capital flight if losses continue for too long.

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IRMAA: Income Related Monthly Adjustment Amount

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The income-related monthly adjustment amount (IRMAA) is a fee you pay on top of your Medicare Part B and Part D premiums if you make a yearly income above the annual thresholds.

READ: https://secure.ssa.gov/poms.nsf/lnx/0601101020

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DAILY UPDATE: 401[k] and Wamco as Stock Markets Crash!

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The Internal Revenue Service (IRS) ruled that employees at an unnamed company can designate a portion of their employer match to student debt repayments or health reimbursement accounts, in addition to their traditional 401(k).

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STOCKS UP

  • Warren Buffett’s Midas touch gave a boost to Domino’s Pizza and Pool Corp. after Berkshire Hathaway announced it has bought shares of both companies. Domino’s popped to start the day but dropped 1.27%, while Pool climbed just 0.54%.
  • Palantir is jumping ship, moving from the NYSE to the Nasdaq. Shareholders liked the move, pushing the stock up 11.14%.
  • Bloom Energy…bloomed 59.19% on the news that the renewable energy company reached an agreement to provide utility company American Electric Power with 1 gigawatt worth of fuel cells.

STOCKS DOWN

  • What Buffett giveth, Buffett taketh away: Apple sank on the news that Berkshire Hathaway has sold shares of the company, and almost completely eliminated its position in Ulta Beauty. Apple fell 1.41%, while Ulta Beauty dropped 4.60%.
  • Shareholders were expecting the worst from Chinese online retailer Alibaba, and although the company actually beat earnings forecasts, it wasn’t enough—shares still sank 2.20%.
  • Applied Materials tumbled 9.20% after beating both top and bottom line expectations, but shareholders balked at the slowdown in several key businesses.
  • AST SpaceMobile plummeted 9.59% after reporting bigger losses and smaller sales than Wall Street wanted to see.

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Here’s where the major stock market benchmarks ended:

  • The SPX fell 78.55 points (–1.32%) to 5,870.62 to end the week down 2.08%; the Dow Jones Industrial Average® ($DJI) lost 305.87 points (–0.70%) to 43,444.99 to end the week down 1.24%; and the NASDAQ Composite® ($COMP) decreased 427.52 points (–2.24%) to 18,680.12 to end the week down 3.15%.
  • The 10-year Treasury note yield rose one basis point to 4.43% but added 12 basis points for the week. Shorter-term yields rose less.
  • The CBOE Volatility Index® (VIX) climbed sharply to 16.11 as stocks fell.

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The problems at storied bond manager Western Asset Management keep growing. Clients have pulled about $55 billion from Wamco, as the division is known, since mid-August, representing about 15% of its assets. Franklin Templeton, its 77-year-old parent company and one of the largest asset managers in the U.S., recently reported its steepest quarterly outflows on record.

Visualize: How private equity tangled banks in a web of debt, from the Financial Times.

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BIAS: Of “Social Proof” and Influencers

INVESTING DEFINITION

By Dr. David Edward Marcinko MBA MEd

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Social Proof is a subtle but powerful reality that having others agree with a decision one makes, gives that person more conviction in the decision, and having others disagree decreases one’s confidence in that decision. 

This bias is even more exaggerated when the other parties providing the validating/questioning opinions are perceived to be experts in a relevant field, or are authority figures, like doctors, attorneys, financial advisors, teachers and/or people on television.  In many ways, the short term moves in the stock market are the ultimate expression of social proof – the price of a stock one owns going up is proof that a lot of other people agree with the decision to buy, and a dropping stock price means a stock should be sold. 

According to colleague Dan Ariely PhD, when these stressors become extreme, it is of paramount importance that all participants in the financial planning and investing process have a clear understanding of what the long-term goals are, and what processes are in place to monitor the progress towards these goals. 

Without these mechanisms it is very hard to resist the enormous pressure to follow the crowd; think social media and related influences.

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Convertible Securities, Bonds and Corporate Securities

By Dr. David Edward Marcinko MBA MEd

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Convertible securities are those that can be converted at the investor’s choice into other investments, normally into shares of the issuer’s underlying common stock. Convertibles are typically issued as bonds or preferred stock.

Convertible bonds, which provide an ongoing stream of income, can be converted into a preset number of shares of the company’s common stock and have a maturity date. Unlike common stock, which pays a variable dividend depending on a corporation’s earnings, convertible preferred stock pays a fixed quarterly dividend. It can be converted into common stock at any time, but often are perpetual.

Corporate securities (corporate bonds and notes) are debt instruments issued by corporations, as distinct from those issued by governments, government agencies, or municipalities.

Corporate securities typically have the following features: 1) they are taxable, 2) they tend to have more credit (default) risk than government or municipal securities, so they tend to have higher yields than comparable-maturity securities in those sectors; and 3) they are traded on major exchanges, with prices published in newspapers.

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