DAILY UPDATE: DaVita Down and NASDAQ Up

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Essays, Opinions and Curated News in Health Economics, Investing, Business, Management and Financial Planning for Physician Entrepreneurs and their Savvy Advisors and Consultants

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Although Berkshire-Hathaway sold 203,091 shares on Friday, it still owns 45 percent of DaVita, Inc.  The stake, valued at $6.4 billion, has been part of Berkshire’s portfolio since 2011. The sell-off Friday was after the sale was disclosed to Wall Street after markers closed on Thursday. When Wall Street shut at 4pm in New York, DaVita was down 11.1 percent –  the stock’s biggest one-day selloff in almost two years for the kidney dialysis provider company.

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The S&P 500 barely budged and slipped by less than 0.1%, a day after rallying within 0.1% of its record set last month. The Dow Jones Industrial Average dipped 165 points, or 0.4%, while the NASDAQ composite rose 0.4%.

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Visualize: How private equity tangled banks in a web of debt, from the Financial Times.

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INTERNATIONAL vs. GLOBAL: The Mutual Fund Difference

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With international stock markets comprising about 40 percent of the world’s capitalization as of 2023, a broad range of investment opportunities exist outside the borders of the U.S.

For investors who are looking to diversify their mutual fund portfolio with exposure to companies located outside the U.S., there exist two basic choices: A global mutual fund or an international mutual fund.

By definition, international funds invest in non-U.S. markets, while global funds may invest in U.S. stocks alongside non-U.S. stocks.

Make a Choice: The definition may seem clear, but what may seem less clear is why an investor might select one over the other. The reason that an investor may select a global fund is to provide the portfolio manager with the latitude to move the fund’s investments among non-U.S. markets and the U.S. market in order to take advantage of the shifts in relative opportunities these markets may present at any given moment.

By investing in a global fund, the challenge for the investor is that he or she may not know at any point in time their total exposure to the U.S. market within the context of their overall portfolio.

An Inside Look: As a consequence, some investors want to manage their allocation risk by setting the broad asset allocation for their portfolio and then identifying funds that are within those asset classes. For these investors, an international fund may make more sense since it allows them to maintain a greater adherence to their desired domestic/international stock allocation.

Keep in mind that asset allocation is an approach to help manage investment risk. Asset allocation does not guarantee against investment loss. As you consider a global or an international fund, you should also be aware of the fund’s approach to the inherent currency risks. Some funds choose to engage in strategies that may mitigate the effects of currency fluctuations, while others consider currency movements – up and down – to be an element of portfolio performance.

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ACCOUNTING: Financial v. Managerial [CPA v. CMA]

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Financial accounting and managerial accounting are two distinct branches of the accounting field, each serving different purposes and stakeholders. Financial accounting focuses on creating external reports that provide a snapshot of a company’s financial health for investors, regulators, and other outside parties. Managerial accounting, meanwhile, is an internal process aimed at aiding managers in making informed business decisions.

Objectives of Financial Accounting

Financial accounting is primarily concerned with the preparation and presentation of financial statements, which include the balance sheet, income statement, and cash flow statement. These documents are meticulously crafted to reflect the company’s financial performance over a specific period, providing insights into its profitability, liquidity, and solvency. The objective is to offer a clear, standardized view of the financial state of the company, ensuring that external entities have a reliable basis for evaluating the company’s economic activities.

The process of financial accounting also involves the meticulous recording of all financial transactions. This is achieved through the double-entry bookkeeping system, where each transaction is recorded in at least two accounts, ensuring that the accounting equation remains balanced. This systematic approach provides accuracy and accountability, which are paramount in financial reporting. CPA = Certified Public Accountant.

Objectives of Managerial Accounting

Managerial accounting is designed to meet the information needs of the individuals who manage organizations. Unlike financial accounting, which provides a historical record of an organization’s financial performance, managerial accounting focuses on future-oriented reports. These reports assist in planning, controlling, and decision-making processes that guide the day-to-day, short-term, and long-term operations.

At the heart of managerial accounting is budgeting. Budgets are detailed plans that quantify the economic resources required for various functions, such as production, sales, and financing. They serve as benchmarks against which actual performance can be measured and evaluated. This enables managers to identify variances, investigate their causes, and implement corrective actions. Another objective of managerial accounting is cost analysis. Managers use cost accounting methods to understand the expenses associated with each aspect of production and operation. By analyzing costs, they can determine the profitability of individual products or services, control expenditures, and optimize resource allocation.

Performance measurement is another key objective. Managerial accountants develop metrics and key performance indicators (KPIs) to assess the efficiency and effectiveness of various business processes. These performance metrics are crucial for setting goals, evaluating outcomes, and aligning individual and departmental objectives with the overall strategy of the organization. CMA = Certified Managerial Accountant

Reporting Standards in Financial Accounting

The bedrock of financial accounting is the adherence to established reporting standards, which ensure consistency, comparability, and transparency in financial statements. Globally, the International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS) are widely adopted, setting the guidelines for how particular types of transactions and other events should be reported in financial statements. In the United States, the Financial Accounting Standards Board (FASB) issues the Generally Accepted Accounting Principles (GAAP), which serve a similar purpose. These standards are not static; they evolve in response to changing economic realities, stakeholder needs, and advances in business practices.

For instance, the shift towards more service-oriented economies and the rise of intangible assets have led to updates in revenue recognition and asset valuation guidelines. The convergence of IFRS and GAAP is an ongoing process aimed at creating a unified set of global standards that would benefit multinational corporations and investors by reducing the complexity and cost of complying with multiple accounting frameworks.

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DAILY UPDATE: Inflation Leaps as Wall Street Worries

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Consumer prices overall increased 3% from a year earlier, up from 2.9% the previous month, according to the Labor Department’s consumer price index, a measure of goods and service costs across the U.S. That’s the most since June and above the 2.9% expected by economists surveyed by Bloomberg.

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Most U.S. stocks fell Wednesday after a report showed inflation is unexpectedly worsening for Americans.

The S&P 500 dropped 0.3%, though it had been on track for a much worse loss of 1.1% at the start of trading. The Dow Jones Industrial Average sank 225 points, or 0.5%, while the NASDAQ composite edged higher by less than 0.1%

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Visualize: How private equity tangled banks in a web of debt, from the Financial Times.

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INSURANCE TERMS: All Doctors Should Know

By Staff Reporters

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DEFINITION BAR SLIDES LEFT TO RIGHT

Understanding Insurance Jargon

1. Premiums

When you purchase an insurance policy, you'll be required to make regular payments, known as premiums. These payments are typically made monthly or annually and are the cost of maintaining your insurance coverage.

2. Deductible

Think of a deductible as the money you have to shell out from your own pocket before your insurance kicks in to help cover your expenses. It's like the upfront cost you need to cover before your insurance really starts working for you.For example, if you have a $500 deductible and make a claim for $1,000, you'll need to pay $500, and your insurer will cover the remaining $500.

3. Policyholder

The policyholder is the person who owns an insurance policy. This individual is responsible for paying premiums and making claims under the policy.

4. Coverage Limit

Every insurance policy has a coverage limit, which is the maximum amount your insurer will pay out for a covered claim. It's crucial to understand your policy's limits to ensure you have adequate coverage.

5. Underwriting

Underwriting is the process insurers use to assess the risk of providing coverage to an individual or entity. It involves evaluating factors such as age, health, and driving record to determine premium rates and eligibility.

Types of Insurance

6. Auto Insurance

Auto insurance provides financial protection in case of accidents, theft, or damage to your vehicle. It's a legal requirement in many places and typically includes liability, collision, and comprehensive coverage.

7. Health Insurance

Health insurance covers medical expenses, including doctor visits, hospital stays, and prescription medications. It can be provided by employers or purchased individually.

8. Homeowners Insurance

Homeowners insurance is like a safety net for your home and stuff. It steps in to help if your place or belongings get damaged or stolen. Plus, it's got your back with liability coverage in case someone gets hurt while on your property.

9. Life Insurance

Life insurance pays out a death benefit to beneficiaries when the policyholder passes away. It can provide financial security to loved ones and cover funeral expenses.

10. Liability Insurance

Liability insurance covers you in case you're responsible for injuring someone or damaging their property. It's often included in auto and homeowners insurance policies.

Navigating Insurance Policies

11. Exclusions

Exclusions are specific events or circumstances that your insurance policy doesn't cover. It's essential to review these carefully to understand what situations won't be reimbursed.

12. Riders

Riders are add-ons to insurance policies that provide additional coverage for specific situations. For example, you can add a rider to your homeowners policy to cover expensive jewelry.

13. Claim

A claim is a formal request to your insurance company for coverage or reimbursement for a loss or damage. It's essential to follow the claims process outlined in your policy.

14. Grace Period

The grace period is the amount of time you have to pay your premium after the due date without your coverage lapsing. Be aware of your policy's grace period to avoid a lapse in coverage.

15. No-Claims Discount

Many insurance companies offer a no-claims discount to policyholders who haven't filed any claims within a specified period. This can lead to lower premiums over time.

Specialized Insurance Terms

16. Subrogation

Subrogation is the process by which an insurance company seeks reimbursement from a third party for a claim it has already paid out. This often occurs in auto accidents when your insurer goes after the at-fault driver's insurance company.

17. Actuary

An actuary is a professional who uses mathematics and statistics to assess risk and set premium rates for insurance policies. They play a crucial role in the insurance industry's financial stability.

18. Adjuster

An insurance adjuster is responsible for investigating claims, evaluating damage, and determining how much the insurance company should pay. They work to ensure fair settlements for policyholders.

19. Premium Credit

Premium credit is a discount offered by insurers to policyholders who meet specific criteria, such as having a good driving record or installing safety features in their home.

20. Salvage Value

When an insured item is damaged or totaled, it may still have some value. Salvage value refers to the amount the insurer can recover by selling the damaged item.

Protecting Your Financial Future

21. Risk Management

Effective risk management involves identifying potential risks and taking steps to minimize or mitigate them. Insurance is one tool in your risk management toolkit.

22. Beneficiary

A beneficiary is the person or entity designated to receive the proceeds of a life insurance policy when the policyholder passes away. It's essential to keep this information up to date.

23. Policy Term

The policy term is the duration for which your insurance policy is valid. It's crucial to renew your policy before it expires to maintain coverage.

24. Umbrella Policy

An umbrella policy provides additional liability coverage beyond the limits of your primary insurance policies. It can protect your assets in the event of a costly lawsuit.

25. Coinsurance

Coinsurance is the percentage of costs that you and your insurance company share after you've met your deductible. It's often seen in health insurance policies.

Insurance in Practice

26. Premium Increase

Your insurance premium may increase due to factors such as claims history, changes in coverage, or external economic conditions. It's essential to shop around for the best rates.

27. Depreciation

Depreciation is the decrease in the value of an asset over time. Insurance policies may account for depreciation when settling claims for damaged property.

28. Reinstatement

If your insurance policy lapses due to non-payment, you may have the option to reinstate it by paying any outstanding premiums and fees.

29. Excess

Excess, also known as a deductible, is the portion of a claim that you're responsible for paying. It's designed to prevent small, frequent claims.

30. Pre-Existing Condition

In health insurance, a pre-existing condition is a medical condition you had before obtaining coverage. Within the framework of the Affordable Care Act, insurance providers are prohibited from refusing coverage or imposing elevated premiums due to pre-existing medical conditions.

Insurance Regulations

31. State Insurance Department

Each state in the United States has a department or commission responsible for regulating insurance within its borders. They oversee insurers' operations and protect consumers.

32. Consumer Reports

Consumer reports provide information on insurance companies' financial strength, customer satisfaction, and claims-handling. They can help you choose a reputable insurer.

33. Guaranteed Renewal

Guaranteed renewal is a provision in some insurance policies that ensures the insurer cannot refuse to renew your policy as long as you pay your premiums.

34. Non-Cancelable Policy

A non-cancelable policy is one that the insurer cannot cancel or change the terms of as long as you pay your premiums. This provides certainty in coverage.

35. Market Conduct Examination

Insurance regulators conduct market conduct examinations to assess insurers' business practices and ensure they comply with laws and regulations.
Insurance for Businesses

36. Business Interruption Insurance

Business interruption insurance provides coverage for lost income and expenses when a covered event, such as a fire or natural disaster, forces your business to close temporarily.

37. Workers’ Compensation

Workers' compensation insurance covers medical expenses and lost wages for employees who are injured on the job. It's typically required by law for businesses with employees.

38. Professional Liability Insurance

Professional liability insurance, often called errors and omissions insurance, protects professionals from liability claims resulting from errors or negligence in their work.

39. Business Owner’s Policy (BOP)

A business owner's policy bundles essential coverages, such as property and liability insurance, into a single policy designed for small businesses. It's a cost-effective option.

40. D&O Insurance

Directors and officers (D&O) insurance protects the personal assets of company leaders in case they are sued for alleged wrongful acts while managing the business.

Advanced Insurance Concepts

41. Aggregate Limit

The aggregate limit is the maximum amount an insurance policy will pay out during a policy term, regardless of the number of claims made.

42. Risk Pooling

Insurance works on the principle of risk pooling, where policyholders collectively share the financial burden of covered losses.

43. Loss Ratio

The loss ratio is a measure of an insurance company's claims payouts compared to its earned premiums. A high loss ratio may indicate financial instability.

44. Surplus Lines Insurance

Surplus lines insurance covers risks that standard insurers won't or can't cover. It's often used for unique or high-risk situations.

45. Rescission

Rescission is the cancellation of an insurance policy retroactively, often due to misrepresentation or fraud on the policyholder's part.

Future of Insurance

46. Insurtech

Insurtech refers to the use of technology, such as artificial intelligence and data analytics, to streamline and improve the insurance industry's processes.

47. Telematics

Telematics devices track driving behavior and can lead to personalized auto insurance rates based on individual habits.

48. Microinsurance

Microinsurance provides affordable coverage to low-income individuals and communities, helping them mitigate risks and protect their assets.

49. Blockchain in Insurance

Blockchain technology can enhance transparency and security in insurance by creating immutable records of policies and claims.

50. Climate Change and Insurance

Climate change poses significant challenges to the insurance industry as it leads to more frequent and severe weather events. Insurers must adapt to these changing risk landscapes.
Insurance is a complex field with a language of its own, but understanding these 50 common insurance terms can help you navigate the world of insurance with confidence. Whether you're looking for auto, health, home, or any other type of insurance, being informed about these terms and concepts is essential to making informed decisions about your coverage.

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TEST: Financial Literacy in the USA

By Staff Reporters

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A new report from the Global Financial Literacy Excellence Center shows that the average American scored just 48% on a financial literacy test, with groups scoring as low as 37% in certain areas. Since the report’s inception in 2017, the results have been relatively stable: Americans have scored 48% to 52% correctly on the annual study.

But only 16% of Americans scored between 75% and 100% on the test in 2024. This alarming statistic has far-reaching consequences for companies, the wider economy, and more than half all Americans. 

Cite: https://www.benzinga.com

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LIFE INSURANCE: Generic Policy

By Staff Reporters

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Life Insurance: A contract under which an insurance company promises, in exchange for premiums, to pay a set benefit when the policyholder dies.

Several factors will affect the cost and availability of life insurance, including age, health and the type and amount of insurance purchased. Life insurance policies have expenses, including mortality and other charges. If a policy is surrendered prematurely, the policyholder also may pay surrender charges and have income tax implications. You should consider determining whether you are insurable before implementing a strategy involving life insurance.

Any guarantees associated with a policy are dependent on the ability of the issuing insurance company to continue making claim payments.

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FINANCIAL ACCOUNTING TERMS: All Doctors Should Know

By Staff Reporters

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#1 – Accounts Payable

Accounts payable are short-term obligations to be paid by an organization. It arises from trading activities and other business-related expenses during the business, including parties from whom we have purchased goods or services and costs incurred for which money is yet to be paid, generally in the same financial year.

#2 – Accounts Receivable

Accounts Receivable form part of current assets and refer to amounts due from parties to whom we have sold goods or services or incurred expenses on their behalf for which money is yet to be realized. It may include debtors, bills receivable, etc., which can be converted into cash in the short term to ensure the organization’s liquidity.

#3 – Balance Sheet

A Balance Sheet is a reconciliation of assets (current and fixed) and liabilities (current and noncurrent), and capital invested in an organization. Stakeholders such as creditors, shareholders, and banks, which have granted loans to the organization and government, use the Balance Sheet to analyze the financial position, growth, and stability.

#4 – Current Assets

Current assets refer to an organization’s realizable resources in the short term, generally during the same financial year. They include cash/bank balance and assets that can convert into cash, ranging from short-term loans and advances, sundry debtors, short-term investments, etc.

#5 – Equity

Equity is the amount invested in the business by its owners, in the form of capital in the case of sole proprietorship and partnerships, or shares (equity and preference) of varying denominations in companies (public or private).

#6 – Expenses

All the money outflow (present or future) incurred for procuring goods and services to affect sales in a business (direct expenses) and incidental to the business (indirect expenses) as well as ancillary to the running of an organization are referred to as expenses

#7 – Fixed Assets

Fixed assets are tangible resources that an organization uses for carrying out daily operations of a business, such as land, plant and equipment, furniture and fixtures, buildings, machinery, etc., which are not purchased to be sold in the short term.

#8 – Ledger

Ledger is the book of entry for recording transactions in such a way that we come to know the outstanding debit or credit balance of an account in our business for which we record the opening balance, transactions made in that account, and the closing balance to find out the exact position of that particular account.

#9 – Income Statement

The Income statement forms part of the financial statements and tells us the exact position of our gross and net profit at a particular cut-off date. It is done by recording all the direct incomes and closing stock on the credit side and all direct expenses and opening stock on the debit side to find the gross profit and all the indirect incomes and indirect expenses similarly to find out the net profit.

#10 – Liabilities

Liabilities are the present (short term) and future(long term) obligations of an organization which represents the debts due to be paid for goods and services procured for the business in the past and include sundry creditors, short term loans and advances, bills payable, etc. which come under short term liabilities and debentures, term loans from a bank, long term loans and advances, etc. which come under long term liabilities.

#11 – Net Income

The profit or loss arrived at after deducting all direct and indirect expenses from all the direct and indirect incomes equals to net income made by a business which is the earning done by the business at a cut-off date and is very useful in comparing the growth and financial position of an organization from previous years as well as for adopting measures for the betterment of the profitability levels of the business.

#12 – Revenue

The gross income earned by the organization from carrying out core business activities without deduction of any expenses is termed as revenue earned by the organization, which also indicates the sale and other incomes in total.

#13 – Credit

Wherever an account is credited, it reduces the balance of an account in the case of real accounts, creates an obligation to pay an individual in the case of personal accounts, and increases the income side if a nominal account is credited.

#14 – Debit

Wherever an account is debited, it increases the balance of an account in the case of real accounts, creating an obligation to receive money from an individual in the case of personal accounts and increasing the expenses side if a nominal account is debited.

#15 – Audit

An audit is an examination of books of accounts prepared by an organization to validate the entries recorded and ensure the accuracy and correctness of the financial statements along with finding out any discrepancies in the books, including frauds, if any, hidden by the employees of the organization.

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PARADOX: Obsessing About Security Breeds Insecurity?

Human life is Inherently Insecure

By Staff Reporters

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The desire for security and feelings of insecurity are the same thing.

The idea of security, financial or otherwise, is an illusion; human life is inherently insecure.  But, this doesn’t mean we shouldn’t be prudent with risk and diligent financial planning with strategies like saving and investing.

However, according to colleague Eugene Schmuckler PhD, MBA, MEd seeking security is like many things; the more you try to grasp and obsess about financial security, the more quickly you will reach a point of diminishing returns. You will feel increasingly less secure at a certain point.

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TRILEMMA Economics

By Staff Reporters

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What is a Trilemma?

A trilemma refers to a situation in which three options are available, but only two can be chosen at a time. It is a situation in economics and international finance in which all three possible options are difficult or nearly impossible to achieve. Unlike a dilemma, which has two options, a trilemma has three options, all of which cannot be selected at once.

Trilemma in Economics

The impossible trinity is an example of a trilemma in economics. In an impossible trinity, a country can’t have a fixed exchange rate, independent monetary policy, and free capital movement all at once. A country can achieve only two out of the three policy objectives.

The impossible trinity involves a third option as a trilemma constraint, which cannot be achieved with the selected two options. It means that the selection of any two options will make it necessary to sacrifice the third beneficial option. It is like a three-way trade-off.

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DJT EXECUTIVE ORDER: US Sovereign Wealth Fund Created

Trump orders creation of US sovereign wealth fund

BREAKING NEWS

By Staff Reporters

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What Is a Sovereign Wealth Fund (SWF)?

A Sovereign Wealth Fund (SWF) is a large pool of capital managed by a country’s government to achieve specific economic and social goals. These funds are invested in various assets such as stocks, bonds, real estate, commodities, and other financial instruments.

SWFs are typically funded from the savings of state-owned enterprises, foreign currency reserves from central banks, or commodity exports. The size and composition of each SWF can vary significantly between countries based on their respective economic circumstances. Each country has various reasons for setting up an SWF. However, the most common purpose of establishing one is to diversify and protect a country’s economy. For instance, this fund can be used as emergency reserves for potential future global financial shocks.

Purpose of a Sovereign Wealth Fund

Sovereign wealth funds invest a country’s wealth to achieve the government’s economic and social objectives. These funds provide countries with an additional method to diversify their economies and reduce risk exposure. They also give governments a chance to invest in global markets outside their own countries, which can get them better returns on their investments. This increases the earning potential on foreign exchanges and provides additional economic stability.

Furthermore, SWFs are a valuable tool to help countries build up buffers and savings for future generations to be better prepared for future economic shocks. Proper use of SWFs leads to long-term economic growth and stability.

In addition to providing an alternative form of investment for governments and enterprises worldwide, SWFs have also been used to increase financial transparency and accountability in many countries. By making their investment decisions public, these funds help promote corporate governance standards across the globe. This encourages market stability and reduces risks associated with certain types of investments.

MORE: https://www.financestrategists.com/financial-advisor/sovereign-wealth-fund-swf/

TRUMP: https://www.reuters.com/markets/wealth/trump-signs-executive-order-create-sovereign-wealth-fund-2025-02-03/

TRUMP: https://www.usnews.com/news/top-news/articles/2025-02-03/trump-signs-executive-order-to-create-sovereign-wealth-fund

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DAILY UPDATE: UnitedHealthcare Settlement, CFPB and Pharmaceutical Company Checks

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Essays, Opinions and Curated News in Health Economics, Investing, Business, Management and Financial Planning for Physician Entrepreneurs and their Savvy Advisors and Consultants

Serving Almost One Million Doctors, Financial Advisors and Medical Management Consultants Daily

A Partner of the Institute of Medical Business Advisors , Inc.

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UnitedHealthcare has agreed to a $2.5 million settlement in response to a class action lawsuit accusing the company of making unauthorized telemarketing calls. More than 12,000 individuals may be entitled to compensation, with payouts ranging from $350 to $1,000 per person, depending on how many claims are filed.

The lawsuit, filed under the Telephone Consumer Protection Act (TCPA), alleges that UnitedHealthcare placed calls to individuals without their consent between January 9, 2015, and January 9th, 2019. If you received these calls, you could be eligible for a cash settlement—but you must act before April 15th, 2025.

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PALM BEACH, Fla. (AP) — President Donald Trump has fired the director of the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau, Rohit Chopra, in the latest purge of a Biden administration holdover. Chopra was one of the more important regulators from the previous Democratic administration who was still on the job since Trump took office on Jan. 20th.

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A 2020 STAT analysis found more than two-thirds of Congress receiving a check from pharmaceutical companies that year. More recent data from Open Secrets likewise confirms that a large majority of leaders serving in the U.S. Congress and Senate receive significant contributions from pharmaceutical or health products companies, averaging $45,000 and $47,000 for Republicans and Democrats in the House of Representatives, respectively — and $50,000 and $69,000 for Republicans and Democrats in the Senate.

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DAILY UPDATE: Stocks Regain Steam

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Essays, Opinions and Curated News in Health Economics, Investing, Business, Management and Financial Planning for Physician Entrepreneurs and their Savvy Advisors and Consultants

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US stocks gained steam on Thursday afternoon as investors digested megacap tech earnings and waited for Apple (AAPL) results for more clues on prospects for Big Tech. The S&P 500 (^GSPC) gained 0.5%, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average (^DJI) rose nearly 0.4%. The tech-heavy NASDAQ Composite (^IXIC) was up nearly 0.3%.

And, after the Federal Reserve stood pat on interest rates as expected, investors have turned to parsing earnings reports — and in particular, the first wave of results from the “Magnificent Seven” companies that have driven broader stock market gains.

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Right ahead of the closing bell, President Donald Trump once again teased looming 25% tariffs on Mexico and Canada. The US dollar (DX=F) index spiked on the news, reversing earlier losses to close near flat.

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DAILY UPDATE: Healthcare Cyber Attacks as the FOMC Pauses Rates and Stock Markets Retreat

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Over half the US population was affected by the Change Healthcare cyberattack last February, according to a statement from its parent company UnitedHealth Group. While United had told the federal government in October that 100 million people were hit by the attacks, an updated estimate on Monday put that number at 190 million.

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Tech stocks led markets lower on Wednesday as the broader mood stayed muted after the Federal Reserve’s latest interest rate decision saw the central bank keep rates unchanged in a range of 4.25%-4.5%.

The tech-heavy NASDAQ Composite (^IXIC) was down about 0.5%, retracing some of a bounce-back rally on Tuesday. The S&P 500 (^GSPC) was also down nearly 0.5%, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average (^DJI) lost 0.3%. In its statement on Wednesday, the Federal Reserve notably removed language from its December statement indicating that it was making progress towards its goal of 2% inflation, stating simply: “Inflation remains somewhat elevated.” Fed Chair Jerome Powell pushed back on that notion, referring to the change as “language cleanup” rather than intending to send a signal. Markets bounced off their lows of the day on Powell’s comments.

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ROBERT LUCAS PARADOX: Law of Diminishing Returns

By Staff Reporters

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Capital is not flowing from developed countries to developing countries despite the fact that developing countries have lower levels of capital per worker, and therefore higher returns to capital.

Classical economic theory predicts that capital should flow from rich countries to poor countries, due to the effect of diminishing returns of capital. Poor countries have lower levels of capital per worker – which explains, in part, why they are poor. In poor countries, the scarcity of capital relative to labor should mean that the returns related to the infusion of capital are higher than in developed countries.

In response, savers in rich countries should look at poor countries as profitable places in which to invest. In reality, things do not seem to work that way. Surprisingly little capital flows from rich countries to poor countries.

This puzzle, famously discussed in a paper by Robert Lucas in 1990, is often referred to as the “Lucas Paradox”.

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DAILY UPDATE: Medicare and PBMs as Markets Slither

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The S&P 500 (^GSPC) just capped its best first four trading days under a new president since Ronald Reagan’s first week in 1985. And, the week ahead will bring investors a deluge of news that will put that rally to the test.

Earnings from more than 100 members of the S&P 500 — highlighted by results from tech heavyweights Meta (META), Microsoft (MSFT), Apple (AAPL), and Tesla (TSLA) — are set for release, with Wednesday serving as the week’s busiest. Starbucks (SBUX), Exxon (XOM), and Chevron (CVX) are also set to report.

On this coming ednesday afternoon, the Federal Reserve will also announce its latest monetary policy decision, with the central bank expected to keep interest rates unchanged and investors focused on what Fed Chairman Jay Powell has to say about the balance of 2025.

Last week, the S&P 500, NASDAQ Composite (^IXIC), and Dow Jones Industrial Average (^DJI) each rallied during a holiday-shortened four day trading week. Over the last five days, the S&P 500 and Dow have gained more than 2.8%; the tech index is leading gains over that period, rising more than 3.1%.

Markets welcomed Trump’s initial days in office as limited news on tariffs steadied investors and a massive AI investment announcement helped boost tech stocks.

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The FTC’s second interim staff report on consolidated pharmacy benefit managers (PBMs) found that the three largest of these middlemen—CVS Health’s Caremark Rx, Cigna Group’s Express Scripts, and UnitedHealth Group’s OptumRx—”marked up two specialty generic cancer drugs by thousands of percent and then paid their affiliated pharmacies hundreds of millions of dollars of dispensing revenue in excess of estimated acquisition costs for each drug annually.”

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Medicare and the Trump 2.0 Administration

People have been concerned about the future of Medicare for years. Now that Donald Trump has begun his second term in office, the question becomes: What will happen next?

According to the JAMA Network and ABC News, here are some predictions for what may come:

  • There will be greater price transparency: During his first term, Trump worked to make prices more transparent to both individuals and health care organizations. This may very well continue.
  • More emphasis on Medicare Advantage plans: Under Project 2025, it’s possible that Medicare Advantage plans will become the “default option for Medicare coverage.” This could lead to a privatization of the program.

Medicare’s future remains to be seen. For now, the best thing current and future retirees can do is keep an eye on their coverage options and costs.

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DAILY UPDATE: Wall Street Momentum Rises

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At the closing bell, the blue-chip Dow Jones Industrial Average was up 0.9% to 44,565.

And a late-day surge carried the NASDAQ Composite into positive territory in the aftermath of Wednesday’s prodigious AI-driven rally, the tech-heavy index rising 0.2% to 20,053.

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U.S. stocks rose to a record Thursday as Wall Street regained some of the momentum that catapulted it to 57 all-time highs last year.

The S&P 500 climbed 0.5% to surpass its record set early last month after coming close the day before. It was the seventh gain in eight days for the main measure of Wall Street’s health.

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EMBRACING Stock Market Stoicism

By Vitaliy Katsenelson CFA

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Embracing Stock Market Stoicism 

2024 brought me back to a core Stoic principle that I hold close to my heart: the dichotomy of control. Here’s the gist: Some things are within our power—our values, our character, our decisions—and some aren’t—like your brother-in-law’s random (and possibly dumb) comment, your spouse’s mood, or the fact that every traffic light turns red right as you pull up.

In investing, it’s the same. We can control:

  • The quality of our research—being logical and thorough in our research
  • Our decisions and discipline—systematically following our research
  • Our reactions—how we react to the news and external environmental pressure (I will discuss this at the end of the letter)

The market can price our stocks however it pleases on a month-to-month—or even year-to-year—basis. That’s the part we can’t control. We have to remember that these market prices are merely opinions, not final verdicts. The Stoics teach us to focus our energy on what we can influence (our process) and accept what we can’t (the market’s whims).

This probably sounds straightforward, but there’s a twist that makes it harder for you, the client, to see how this all plays out in real time. You can easily check the portfolio’s value—my decisions, not so much. In theory, I could make subpar investments and hide behind fancy Stoic talk.

That’s exactly the why of these very detailed letters: to show you our thinking, walk you through our individual decisions. I write, you read—that’s our agreement. You’re the judge of whether my process makes sense. But I can’t do that part for you.

CONTINUE READING: https://investor.fm/embracing-stock-market-stoicism/?mc_cid=25f3bd9eb4&mc_eid=7a63a03234

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ICE and Bank of America [BoA] Indices

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The ICE 3-Month USD LIBOR interest rate is the average interest rate at which a selection of banks in London are prepared to lend to one another in American dollars with a maturity of 3 months.

The Bank of America US High Yield Constrained Index is a market value-weighted index of all domestic high-yield bonds and Yankee high-yield bonds (issued by a foreign entity and denominated in U.S. dollars), including deferred interest bonds and payment-in-kind securities.

The ICE BofA BB-B US High Yield Constrained Index is composed of U.S. dollar-denominated corporate debt publicly issued in the U.S. market rated BB through B, based on an average of Moody’s, S&P and Fitch ratings, with issuer exposure capped at 2%.

ICE BofA U.S. Convertible Index tracks the performance of publicly issued, exchange-listed US dollar denominated convertible securities of US companies with at least $50 million face amount outstanding and at least one month remaining to the final conversion date. Index constituents are market capitalization-weighted and rebalanced monthly.

ICE BofA ML MOVE Index is a widely used measure of bond market volatility, similar to the VIX Index for stocks. The MOVE Index (also known as the Merrill Lynch Option Volatility Estimate) is a yield-curve-weighted index that tracks the market’s expectation of volatility in the U.S. bond market based on 1-month Treasury options.

ICE Exchange-Listed Preferred & Hybrid Securities Index tracks the performance of exchange-listed US dollar denominated hybrid debt, preferred stock and convertible preferred stock publicly issued by corporations in the US domestic market. Preferred stock and notes must have a minimum amount outstanding of $100 million; convertible preferred stock must have at least $50 million face amount outstanding. Index constituents are market capitalization-weighted subject to certain constraints. The index is re-balanced monthly.

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DAILY UPDATE: TikToc, Walgreens & Hindenburg Research All Down as Markets Blast Off

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WASHINGTON — The US Supreme Court on Friday delivered a blow to TikTok by upholding a law that could potentially lead to the video-sharing social media platform being banned in the United States. The justices in an unsigned opinion with no dissents rejected a free speech challenge filed by the company, meaning the law is set to go into effect on Sunday as planned. The bipartisan law requires China-based TikTok owner ByteDance to divest itself of the company by Sunday, the day before President-elect Donald Trump is to take office. If no sale takes place, the platform used by millions of Americans will in theory be banned.

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Legendary short seller Nate Anderson announced this week that he is shutting down his firm, Hindenburg Research, due to extreme job stress. With only 11 employees, Anderson took gargantuan swings at companies—and their billionaire leaders. Hindenburg published deeply researched reports about companies it believed were overvalued and rife with corruption. It got its big break when it shorted electric truck-maker Nikola in 2020, calling the company an “intricate fraud.” Regulators took note, and it led to three fraud convictions for Nikola founder Trevor Milton.

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US stocks jumped on Friday amid a tech stock revival as investors assessed a week of key data and earnings reports alongside potential policy shifts under a Trump administration.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average (^DJI) gained 0.8% while the S&P 500 (^GSPC) rose 1%, coming off a losing day for the major gauges. The tech-heavy NASDAQ Composite (^IXIC) put on 1.5% as Nvidia (NVDA) and Tesla (TSLA) shares nudged back into the green.

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The US Department of Justice (DOJ) filed a lawsuit against Walgreens (WBA), one of the nation’s largest pharmacy chains, alleging widespread prescription drug practice violations. According to the DOJ, Walgreens improperly dispensed millions of prescriptions from August 2012 to the present day that either lacked “legitimate medical purpose” or were otherwise invalid.

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BLOOMBERG: U.S. Universal Index

By Staff Reporters

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The Bloomberg U.S. Universal Index represents the union of the U.S. Aggregate Index, U.S. Corporate High Yield Index, Investment Grade 144A Index, Eurodollar Index, U.S. Emerging Markets Index, and the non-ERISA eligible portion of the CMBS Index.

The index covers USD-denominated, taxable bonds that are rated either investment grade or high-yield. Some Bloomberg U.S. Universal Index constituents may be eligible for one or more of its contributing sub-components that are not mutually exclusive. These securities are not double-counted in the index.

The Bloomberg U.S. Universal Index was created on January 1st, 1999, with index history back-filled to January 1st, 1990.

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HFR INVESTMENTS: Two Indices

By Staff Reporters

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HFRX Equity Hedge Index serves as a daily-priced proxy for alternative strategies that maintain positions long and short, primarily in equity and equity derivative securities.

HFRX Fixed Income – Credit Index serves as a daily-priced proxy for alternative strategies that provide exposure to credit strategies. Credit strategies refers to a wide range of sub-strategies and may include corporate, sovereign, distressed, asset-backed, capital structure arbitrage, and other relative value approaches. Strategies may also include and utilize equity securities, credit derivatives, commodities, or currencies.

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JUNK: Rally Back?

By Staff Reporters

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A Junk Rally is a general trend of out performance by companies that tend to score poorly along several dimensions, such as price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios, return on assets (ROA), balance sheet strength, levels of debt and volatility.

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EXTENDED Equity Strategies

By Staff Reporters

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Extended equity strategies attempt to provide better returns than possible with long-only investments.

An example of an extended equity strategy is a 130/30 portfolio, which gets its designation from taking a 130% long position and a 30% short position. In practice, this would mean $100mm invested in stocks that are viewed as attractive. Next, the manager would borrow and sell short $30mm of unattractive stocks. Then the manager uses the proceeds from the short sale to buy an additional $30mm of attractive stocks. This results in a portfolio that has 130% long and 30% short exposure to stocks, or “extended” exposure to equities relative to a long-only, 100% stock portfolio.

Nevertheless, it’s important to point out that here is the risk of theoretical unlimited amount of loss with short selling, (i.e. the price of the short-sold stocks increases; the long position can only go down to $0).

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HOSPITAL Revenue Metrics Review

By Staff Reporters

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The emphasis on hospital revenue metrics at hospitals may be a sign of misplaced prioritization away from patients and their well-being. For example:

  • Orthopedic Surgeons Generated the $2.75 Million in Hospital Revenue Per Orthopedist Per Year.
  • Interventional Cardiologists Generated $2.45 Million in Hospital Revenue Per Cardiologist Per Year.
  • General Surgeons Generated $2.17 Million in Hospital Revenue Per Surgeon Per Year.
  • Family Practice Doctors Generated $1.5 Million in Hospital Revenue Per Doctor Per Year.

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CURRENCY: Carried Orientated

By Staff Reporters

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Carry-oriented currencies are higher-yielding currencies of countries where interest rates are generally higher than those of countries with lower-yielding currencies.

These higher-yielding currencies are targeted for “carry trades,” where investors borrow money in a low-interest rate currency and invest in a higher yielding currency, potentially profiting from the difference in interest rates.

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NOTIONAL Value

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Notional Value is the face value or principal amount that an investor holds of a debt security.

This value is not subject to market pricing.

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DEMAGOGUES: Value and Growth Stocks

SPECIAL REPORT

By Vitaliy Katsenelson CFA

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About Value & Growth Demagogues
You can listen to a professional narration of this article on iTunes & online.
I have a problem with both growth and value demagogues.

Growth demagogues will argue that valuation is irrelevant for high-growth companies because the price you pay for growth doesn’t matter. They usually say this after a very extended move in growth stocks, where these investors look like gods that walk on water. They call value investors “accountants.”

The price you pay matters (this is not a new message). As we’ve discussed in the past, if you bought great, high-growth companies near the end of the Nifty Fifty bubble in the 1960s or near the end of the dotcom bubble in the 1990s, it took more than a decade to break even (after first struggling through double-digit losses).

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CREDIT: Much About Agreements!

By Staff Reporters

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Credit report with score on a desk

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Credit analysis is a form of financial analysis used primarily to determine the financial strength of the issuer of a security, and the ability of that issuer to provide timely payment of interest and principal to investors in the issuer’s debt securities. Credit analysis is typically an important component of security analysis and selection in credit-sensitive bond sectors such as the corporate bond market and the municipal bond market.

Credit default swap index (CDX) is a credit derivative, based on a basket of CDS, which can be used to hedge credit risk or speculate on changes in credit quality.

Credit default swaps (CDS) are credit derivative contracts between two counterparties that can be used to hedge credit risk or speculate on changes in the credit quality of a corporation or government entity.

Credit quality reflects the financial strength of the issuer of a security, and the ability of that issuer to provide timely payment of interest and principal to investors in the issuer’s securities. Common measurements of credit quality include the credit ratings provided by credit rating agencies such as Standard & Poor’s and Moody’s. Credit quality and credit quality perceptions are a key component of the daily market pricing of fixed-income securities, along with maturity, inflation expectations and interest rate levels.

Credit Rating Agency (CRA) is a company that assigns credit ratings for issuers of certain types of debt obligations as well as the debt instruments themselves. In the United States, the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) permits investment banks and broker-dealers to use credit ratings from “Nationally Recognized Statistical Rating Organizations” (NRSRO) for similar purposes. As of January 2012, nine organizations were designated as NRSROs, including the “Big Three” which are Standard and Poor’s, Moody’s Investor Services and Fitch Ratings.

Credit rating downgrade, by a credit rating agency (Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s or Fitch) means reducing its credit rating for a debt issuer and/or security. This is based on the agency’s evaluation, indicating, to the agency, a decline in the issuer’s financial stability, increasing the possibility of default. A downgrade should not to be confused with a default; a debt security can be downgraded without defaulting. And, conversely, a debt issuer can suddenly default without being downgraded first–credit ratings and credit rating agencies are not infallible.

Credit ratings are measurements of credit quality provided by credit rating agencies. Those provided by Standard & Poor’s typically are the most widely quoted and distributed, and range from AAA (highest quality; perceived as least likely to default) down to D (in default). Securities and issuers rated AAA to BBB are considered/perceived to be “investment-grade”; those below BBB are considered/perceived to be non-investment-grade or more speculative.

Credit risk is the inability or perceived inability of the issuers of debt securities to make interest and principal payments will cause the value of those securities to decrease. Changes in the credit ratings of debt securities could have a similar effect.

Credit Risk Transfer Securities (CRTS) are unsecured obligations of the GSEs (Government Sponsored Enterprises). Although cash flows are linked to prepays and defaults of the reference mortgage loans, the securities are unsecured loans, backed by general credit rather than by specified assets.

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IBBOTSON: Intermediate-Term Treasuries Index

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Ibbotson Intermediate-Term Treasuries Index constructed by Ibbotson Associates using long-term historical data. The index calculates total returns from historical index prices and calculates income using a coupon accrual method.

The index replicates intermediate-term bond performance by selecting the Treasury bond with maturity closest to five years, holds it for the calendar year, then rolls to the next five-year bond.

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SUSTAINABILITY Defined

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Sustainability focuses on meeting the needs of the present without compromising the ability of future generations to meet their needs. There are many different approaches to Sustainability, with motives varying from positive societal impact, to wanting to achieve competitive financial results, or both.

Methods of sustainable investing include active share ownership, integration of ESG factors, thematic investing, impact investing and exclusion among others.

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EARNED INCOME: Defined

By Staff Reporters

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What Counts as ‘Earned Income’?

The IRS defines earned income as money you get for working, including the following:

  • Wages
  • Commissions
  • Bonuses
  • Tips
  • Honorariums for speaking, writing or taking part in a conference or convention
  • Self-employment income

Income that doesn’t qualify includes:

  • Taxable pension payments
  • Interest income
  • Dividends
  • Rental income
  • Alimony
  • Withdrawals from Roth IRAs or other non-taxable retirement accounts
  • Annuity income
  • Welfare benefits
  • Unemployment compensation
  • Worker’s compensation payments
  • Social Security income.

Cite: https://www.irs.gov/credits-deductions/individuals/earned-income-tax-credit/earned-income-and-earned-income-tax-credit-eitc-tables

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DAILY UPDATE: United Health Owned Insurance Fined and CFPB Hides Medical Debt as Nvidia Leads Stock Markets Down

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Three UnitedHealth-owned insurance companies must pay over $165 million for misleading thousands of customers in Massachusetts into paying for additional health insurance, a state judge has ruled.

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Nvidia stock (NVDA) tumbled more than 6% Tuesday, a day after shares closed at a record high in anticipation of CEO Jensen Huang’s keynote at the tech industry’s annual CES trade show in Las Vegas.

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Dow ends down nearly 180 points, NASDAQ tumbles 1.9% as Treasury yields surge after job-openings, ISM services data

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The Biden administration’s Consumer Financial Protection Bureau (CFPB) issued a new rule Tuesday that will hide an estimated $49 billion in medical debt from credit reports. The rule, which is slated to affect 15 million Americans, prohibits the inclusion of medical bills on credit reports and bars creditors from using medical information in making lending decisions. The policy specifically targets national credit-reporting companies Equifax, Experian and Transunion, which provide detailed evaluations of consumer finances to banks, employers and landlords.

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INSTITUTE: Supply Management (ISM) Manufacturing Index

By Staff Reporters

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Institute for Supply Management (ISM) Manufacturing Index. Now, published on a monthly basis, the ISM surveys more than 300 manufacturing firms on employment, production, new orders, supplier deliveries, and inventories.

A composite diffusion index of national manufacturing conditions is constructed, where readings above (below) 50 percent indicate an expanding (contracting) manufacturing sector.

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MONEY Supply in Circulation

By Staff Reporters

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MONEY SUPPLY: The amount of money in circulation. The money supply measures
currently (1985) used by the Federal Reserve System are:


 M 1 – Currency in circulation + demand deposit + other check-type deposits. 35
 M2 – M 1 + savings and small denomination time deposits + overnight repurchase
agreements at commercial banks + overnight Eurodollars + money market mutual
fund shares.
 M3 – M2 + large-denomination time deposits (Jumbo CDs) + term repurchase
agreements.
 M4 – M3 + other liquid assets (such as term Eurodollars, bankers acceptances,
commercial paper, Treasury securities and U.S. Savings Bonds)

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BULLET Bond Structure

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A Bullet bond structure is a bond portfolio structure that clusters a portfolio’s bond maturities around a single maturity (usually an intermediate-term maturity).

This structure tends to perform best when the yield curve is moving from flat to steep (long-term rates are rising faster than short-term rates, or short-term rates are falling faster than long-term rates).

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OUTCOME: Bias

By Staff Reporters

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Outcome bias is judging a decision based on its result rather than the quality of the decision at the time it was made.

It’s like saying a bad poker play was smart because you won the hand. Or, a bad stock picker or financial advisor was good because the price went up!

According to psychologist and colleague Dan Ariely PhD, this bias ignores the process and focuses solely on the outcome. It’s why we celebrate lucky breaks and criticize thoughtful risks that didn’t pan out.

So, the next time you’re evaluating a decision, focus on the reasoning behind it, not just the end result.

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DAILY UPDATE: Chinese Stocks and Wall Street Down

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China’s stock market suffered its worst start to a year in nearly a decade, as investors brace for Donald Trump to impose tariffs on the world’s second-largest economy. The CSI 300 index closed down 2.9pc on Thursday, marking its steepest drop on the first day of annual trading since 2016, while the Hang Seng in Hong Kong fell 2.2pc.

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The fall for US stocks accompanied a rally in the dollar, a popular haven, which set a fresh two-year high Thursday and opened little changed Friday. The yen climbed in early trading after a third daily decline against the greenback in the prior session. The moves are a sign the selling that has sapped US equities over the past week may be starting to turn. Investors are preparing to implement asset-allocation strategies for the 2025 year ahead after a rocky end to 2024.

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Visualize: How private equity tangled banks in a web of debt, from the Financial Times.

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K SHAPED: Economy and Recovery

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Understanding the K-shaped Economy

According to Olivia Voltaggio, in a V-shaped economy, things go down but then bounce back for everyone. In a K-shaped economy, the overall economy might go down. Only some parts of it recover, while others keep struggling.

In a K-shaped economy, people’s financial situations vary widely. Not everyone faces the same struggles. Lenders and financial institutions need to be flexible with strategy. They need to understand the different challenges their customers are dealing with.

Navigate with caution: The gaps in economic recovery highlight the importance of taking a careful, strategic approach.

How did we end up with a K-shaped recovery in 2024?

Inflation-driven price increases seem to be getting more stable. But, they may not reach the goal set by the government until 2026. This has made things more expensive for regular families.

For example, people with student loan debt had to start paying it back in October 2023. This was after a pandemic-induced grace period. Student loan repayment made budgeting harder. Borrowers might need to spend more on average than expected. For young adults (Gen Z), it could be even more.

Finally, more people are using credit cards because things are getting more expensive. Some are struggling to pay their credit card bills on time.

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DAILY UPDATE: Markets Down Closing Out Year!

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US stocks slipped Tuesday, closing 2024 with an uncharacteristic down note after a roaring year of trading. The S&P 500 (^GSPC) fell 0.4%. The Dow Jones Industrial Average (^DJI) dropped just below the flatline, while the tech-heavy NASDAQ Composite (^IXIC) led the losses at 0.9%.

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Despite the sour final stretch, the benchmark S&P 500 closed 2024 up 23%, according to Yahoo Finance data. The tech-heavy NASDAQ Composite gained almost 30%. The Dow Jones Industrial Average posted a more modest 13% win. The S&P’s annual gain roughly matches 2023’s performance, logging the highest consecutive back-to-back annual gain in nearly 30 years.

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Visualize: How private equity tangled banks in a web of debt, from the Financial Times.

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LUCAS Paradox

By Staff Reporters

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The Lucas Paradox occurs when capital is not flowing from developed countries to developing countries despite the fact that developing countries have lower levels of capital per worker, and therefore higher returns to capital.

According to Wikipedia, economic theory predicts that capital should flow from rich countries to poor countries, due to the effect of diminishing returns of capital. Poor countries have lower levels of capital per worker – which explains, in part, why they are poor. In poor countries, the scarcity of capital relative to labor should mean that the returns related to the infusion of capital are higher than in developed countries.

In response, savers in rich countries should look at poor countries as profitable places in which to invest. In reality, things do not seem to work that way. Surprisingly little capital flows from rich countries to poor countries. This puzzle was famously discussed in a paper by Robert Lucas PhD in 1990.

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CHINA: Li Keqiang Index

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The Li Keqiang Index was created in 2010 by The Economist and measure’s China’s economy using three indicators: railway cargo volume, electricity consumption and bank loans.

The index is seen as an alternative to official gross domestic product numbers released by the Chinese government.

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DAILY UPDATE: Covid-19 Update as Stock Markets Fall Again and US Treasury Hacked

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Essays, Opinions and Curated News in Health Economics, Investing, Business, Management and Financial Planning for Physician Entrepreneurs and their Savvy Advisors and Consultants

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A Partner of the Institute of Medical Business Advisors , Inc.

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SPONSORED BY: Marcinko & Associates, Inc.

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How May We Serve You?
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Stat: 4 in 10. That’s about how many US nursing home residents got an updated Covid-19 vaccine in the winter of 2023–24, according to the CDC, despite the recommendation that adults 65 and older get the new shot. (KFF)

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Stocks fell on Monday, with the woes of the three major indexes continuing in the final week of the year as an otherwise strong 2024 comes to a close.

The benchmark S&P 500 (^GSPC) slipped more than 1% while the tech-heavy NASDAQ Composite (^IXIC) fell roughly 1.2%. The Dow Jones Industrial Average (^DJI) fell about 0.8%.

Stocks moved lower as the 10-year Treasury yield (^TNX) retreated from a seven-month high to hover near 4.55%. Stocks closed out last week with a Friday slide from Big Tech names like Tesla (TSLA) and Nvidia (NVDA), with the NASDAQ Composite falling 1.5% and the S&P 500 down over 1%.

The highly anticipated “Santa Claus” rally, which is statistically one of the most consistent seven-day positive stretches of the year for the S&P 500, has flopped thus far. Since 1950, the S&P 500 has risen 1.3% during the seven trading days beginning December 24th, well above the typical seven-day average of 0.3%, according to LPL Financial chief technical strategist Adam Turnquist. In the current period, the S&P 500 is down nearly 1%.

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Chinese state-sponsored hackers breached the U.S. Treasury Department’s computer security guardrails this month and stole documents in what Treasury called a “major incident,” according to a letter to lawmakers that was provided to Reuters on Monday.

The hackers compromised third-party cybersecurity service provider BeyondTrust and were able to access unclassified documents, the letter said.

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MARKETS: Risk-On, Risk-Off and On-Off

By Staff Reporters

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Risk-On

RO = Asset prices commonly follow the risk sentiment of the market. Investors look for changing sentiment through corporate earnings, macro-economic data, and global central bank action. An increase in the stock market or where stocks outperform bonds is said to be a risk-on environment.

Risk-on environments can be carried by expanding corporate earnings, optimistic economic outlook, accommodative central bank policies, and speculation. As the market displays strong influential fundamentals, investors perceive less risk about the market and its outlook.

Risk-Off

ROff = When stocks are selling off, and investors run for shelter to bonds or gold, the environment is said to be risk-off. Risk-off environments can be caused by widespread corporate earnings downgrades, contracting or slowing economic data, and uncertain central bank policy.

Just like the stock market rises in a risk-on environment, a drop in the stock market equals a risk-off environment. Investors jump from risky assets and pile into high grade bonds, U.S. Treasury bonds, gold, cash, and other safe havens

Risk-On Risk-Off?

Risk-on-risk-off investing relies on and is driven by changes in investor risk tolerance. Risk-on-risk-off (RORO) can also sway changes in investment activity in response to economic patterns. When risk is low, investors tend to engage in higher-risk investments. Investors tend to gravitate toward lower-risk investments when risk is perceived to be high.

Note: Thanks to Chat GPT.

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PHANTOM: Income Tax on TIPS

By Staff Reporters

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“Phantom Tax” or “Phantom Income” for direct owners of Treasury inflation-protected securities (TIPS) TIPS adjust their principal values and interest payments for inflation. As with other directly owned Treasury securities, TIPS principal, including the inflation adjustments, is not paid back to investors until the securities mature.

However, the principal adjustments are taxed by the IRS as income in the year in which they occur, even though no actual payments are made in those years to investors who own TIPS directly. This is why this income is called “phantom income” and the tax on it is known as the “phantom tax.”

Investors can avoid the phantom income/tax issue for TIPS by holding TIPS in tax-deferred retirement accounts. Mutual funds and Exchange Traded Funds (ETFs) typically take the “phantom” factor out of TIPS ownership by distributing the principal adjustments as taxable dividends.

As with direct ownership of TIPS, the tax consequences of these distributions by mutual funds and ETFs can be reduced by holding TIPS-owning instruments in tax-deferred retirement accounts

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STOCK MARKET TRAPS: Overbought Bulls and Oversold Bears

By Staff Reporters

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What Is a Bull Trap?

A bull trap, according to James Chen, is a false signal, referring to a declining trend in a stock, index, or other security that reverses after a convincing rally and breaks a prior support level. The move “traps” traders or investors that acted on the buy signal and generates losses on resulting long positions. A bull trap may also refer to a whipsaw pattern. Read: Bull Trap.”

What is a Bear Trap

The opposite of a bull trap is a bear trap, which occurs when sellers fail to press a decline below a breakdown level.

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