PARADOX: Obsessing About Security Breeds Insecurity?

Human life is Inherently Insecure

By Staff Reporters

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The desire for security and feelings of insecurity are the same thing.

The idea of security, financial or otherwise, is an illusion; human life is inherently insecure.  But, this doesn’t mean we shouldn’t be prudent with risk and diligent financial planning with strategies like saving and investing.

However, according to colleague Eugene Schmuckler PhD, MBA, MEd seeking security is like many things; the more you try to grasp and obsess about financial security, the more quickly you will reach a point of diminishing returns. You will feel increasingly less secure at a certain point.

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TRILEMMA Economics

By Staff Reporters

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What is a Trilemma?

A trilemma refers to a situation in which three options are available, but only two can be chosen at a time. It is a situation in economics and international finance in which all three possible options are difficult or nearly impossible to achieve. Unlike a dilemma, which has two options, a trilemma has three options, all of which cannot be selected at once.

Trilemma in Economics

The impossible trinity is an example of a trilemma in economics. In an impossible trinity, a country can’t have a fixed exchange rate, independent monetary policy, and free capital movement all at once. A country can achieve only two out of the three policy objectives.

The impossible trinity involves a third option as a trilemma constraint, which cannot be achieved with the selected two options. It means that the selection of any two options will make it necessary to sacrifice the third beneficial option. It is like a three-way trade-off.

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DJT EXECUTIVE ORDER: US Sovereign Wealth Fund Created

Trump orders creation of US sovereign wealth fund

BREAKING NEWS

By Staff Reporters

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What Is a Sovereign Wealth Fund (SWF)?

A Sovereign Wealth Fund (SWF) is a large pool of capital managed by a country’s government to achieve specific economic and social goals. These funds are invested in various assets such as stocks, bonds, real estate, commodities, and other financial instruments.

SWFs are typically funded from the savings of state-owned enterprises, foreign currency reserves from central banks, or commodity exports. The size and composition of each SWF can vary significantly between countries based on their respective economic circumstances. Each country has various reasons for setting up an SWF. However, the most common purpose of establishing one is to diversify and protect a country’s economy. For instance, this fund can be used as emergency reserves for potential future global financial shocks.

Purpose of a Sovereign Wealth Fund

Sovereign wealth funds invest a country’s wealth to achieve the government’s economic and social objectives. These funds provide countries with an additional method to diversify their economies and reduce risk exposure. They also give governments a chance to invest in global markets outside their own countries, which can get them better returns on their investments. This increases the earning potential on foreign exchanges and provides additional economic stability.

Furthermore, SWFs are a valuable tool to help countries build up buffers and savings for future generations to be better prepared for future economic shocks. Proper use of SWFs leads to long-term economic growth and stability.

In addition to providing an alternative form of investment for governments and enterprises worldwide, SWFs have also been used to increase financial transparency and accountability in many countries. By making their investment decisions public, these funds help promote corporate governance standards across the globe. This encourages market stability and reduces risks associated with certain types of investments.

MORE: https://www.financestrategists.com/financial-advisor/sovereign-wealth-fund-swf/

TRUMP: https://www.reuters.com/markets/wealth/trump-signs-executive-order-create-sovereign-wealth-fund-2025-02-03/

TRUMP: https://www.usnews.com/news/top-news/articles/2025-02-03/trump-signs-executive-order-to-create-sovereign-wealth-fund

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DAILY UPDATE: UnitedHealthcare Settlement, CFPB and Pharmaceutical Company Checks

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UnitedHealthcare has agreed to a $2.5 million settlement in response to a class action lawsuit accusing the company of making unauthorized telemarketing calls. More than 12,000 individuals may be entitled to compensation, with payouts ranging from $350 to $1,000 per person, depending on how many claims are filed.

The lawsuit, filed under the Telephone Consumer Protection Act (TCPA), alleges that UnitedHealthcare placed calls to individuals without their consent between January 9, 2015, and January 9th, 2019. If you received these calls, you could be eligible for a cash settlement—but you must act before April 15th, 2025.

CITE: https://tinyurl.com/2h47urt5

PALM BEACH, Fla. (AP) — President Donald Trump has fired the director of the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau, Rohit Chopra, in the latest purge of a Biden administration holdover. Chopra was one of the more important regulators from the previous Democratic administration who was still on the job since Trump took office on Jan. 20th.

CITE: https://tinyurl.com/tj8smmes

A 2020 STAT analysis found more than two-thirds of Congress receiving a check from pharmaceutical companies that year. More recent data from Open Secrets likewise confirms that a large majority of leaders serving in the U.S. Congress and Senate receive significant contributions from pharmaceutical or health products companies, averaging $45,000 and $47,000 for Republicans and Democrats in the House of Representatives, respectively — and $50,000 and $69,000 for Republicans and Democrats in the Senate.

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DAILY UPDATE: Stocks Regain Steam

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US stocks gained steam on Thursday afternoon as investors digested megacap tech earnings and waited for Apple (AAPL) results for more clues on prospects for Big Tech. The S&P 500 (^GSPC) gained 0.5%, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average (^DJI) rose nearly 0.4%. The tech-heavy NASDAQ Composite (^IXIC) was up nearly 0.3%.

And, after the Federal Reserve stood pat on interest rates as expected, investors have turned to parsing earnings reports — and in particular, the first wave of results from the “Magnificent Seven” companies that have driven broader stock market gains.

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Right ahead of the closing bell, President Donald Trump once again teased looming 25% tariffs on Mexico and Canada. The US dollar (DX=F) index spiked on the news, reversing earlier losses to close near flat.

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Visualize: How private equity tangled banks in a web of debt, from the Financial Times.

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DAILY UPDATE: Healthcare Cyber Attacks as the FOMC Pauses Rates and Stock Markets Retreat

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HAPPY LUNAR NEW YEAR

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Over half the US population was affected by the Change Healthcare cyberattack last February, according to a statement from its parent company UnitedHealth Group. While United had told the federal government in October that 100 million people were hit by the attacks, an updated estimate on Monday put that number at 190 million.

CITE: https://tinyurl.com/2h47urt5

Tech stocks led markets lower on Wednesday as the broader mood stayed muted after the Federal Reserve’s latest interest rate decision saw the central bank keep rates unchanged in a range of 4.25%-4.5%.

The tech-heavy NASDAQ Composite (^IXIC) was down about 0.5%, retracing some of a bounce-back rally on Tuesday. The S&P 500 (^GSPC) was also down nearly 0.5%, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average (^DJI) lost 0.3%. In its statement on Wednesday, the Federal Reserve notably removed language from its December statement indicating that it was making progress towards its goal of 2% inflation, stating simply: “Inflation remains somewhat elevated.” Fed Chair Jerome Powell pushed back on that notion, referring to the change as “language cleanup” rather than intending to send a signal. Markets bounced off their lows of the day on Powell’s comments.

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ROBERT LUCAS PARADOX: Law of Diminishing Returns

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Capital is not flowing from developed countries to developing countries despite the fact that developing countries have lower levels of capital per worker, and therefore higher returns to capital.

Classical economic theory predicts that capital should flow from rich countries to poor countries, due to the effect of diminishing returns of capital. Poor countries have lower levels of capital per worker – which explains, in part, why they are poor. In poor countries, the scarcity of capital relative to labor should mean that the returns related to the infusion of capital are higher than in developed countries.

In response, savers in rich countries should look at poor countries as profitable places in which to invest. In reality, things do not seem to work that way. Surprisingly little capital flows from rich countries to poor countries.

This puzzle, famously discussed in a paper by Robert Lucas in 1990, is often referred to as the “Lucas Paradox”.

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DAILY UPDATE: Medicare and PBMs as Markets Slither

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The S&P 500 (^GSPC) just capped its best first four trading days under a new president since Ronald Reagan’s first week in 1985. And, the week ahead will bring investors a deluge of news that will put that rally to the test.

Earnings from more than 100 members of the S&P 500 — highlighted by results from tech heavyweights Meta (META), Microsoft (MSFT), Apple (AAPL), and Tesla (TSLA) — are set for release, with Wednesday serving as the week’s busiest. Starbucks (SBUX), Exxon (XOM), and Chevron (CVX) are also set to report.

On this coming ednesday afternoon, the Federal Reserve will also announce its latest monetary policy decision, with the central bank expected to keep interest rates unchanged and investors focused on what Fed Chairman Jay Powell has to say about the balance of 2025.

Last week, the S&P 500, NASDAQ Composite (^IXIC), and Dow Jones Industrial Average (^DJI) each rallied during a holiday-shortened four day trading week. Over the last five days, the S&P 500 and Dow have gained more than 2.8%; the tech index is leading gains over that period, rising more than 3.1%.

Markets welcomed Trump’s initial days in office as limited news on tariffs steadied investors and a massive AI investment announcement helped boost tech stocks.

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The FTC’s second interim staff report on consolidated pharmacy benefit managers (PBMs) found that the three largest of these middlemen—CVS Health’s Caremark Rx, Cigna Group’s Express Scripts, and UnitedHealth Group’s OptumRx—”marked up two specialty generic cancer drugs by thousands of percent and then paid their affiliated pharmacies hundreds of millions of dollars of dispensing revenue in excess of estimated acquisition costs for each drug annually.”

CITE: https://tinyurl.com/2h47urt5

Medicare and the Trump 2.0 Administration

People have been concerned about the future of Medicare for years. Now that Donald Trump has begun his second term in office, the question becomes: What will happen next?

According to the JAMA Network and ABC News, here are some predictions for what may come:

  • There will be greater price transparency: During his first term, Trump worked to make prices more transparent to both individuals and health care organizations. This may very well continue.
  • More emphasis on Medicare Advantage plans: Under Project 2025, it’s possible that Medicare Advantage plans will become the “default option for Medicare coverage.” This could lead to a privatization of the program.

Medicare’s future remains to be seen. For now, the best thing current and future retirees can do is keep an eye on their coverage options and costs.

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DAILY UPDATE: Wall Street Momentum Rises

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At the closing bell, the blue-chip Dow Jones Industrial Average was up 0.9% to 44,565.

And a late-day surge carried the NASDAQ Composite into positive territory in the aftermath of Wednesday’s prodigious AI-driven rally, the tech-heavy index rising 0.2% to 20,053.

CITE: https://tinyurl.com/2h47urt5

U.S. stocks rose to a record Thursday as Wall Street regained some of the momentum that catapulted it to 57 all-time highs last year.

The S&P 500 climbed 0.5% to surpass its record set early last month after coming close the day before. It was the seventh gain in eight days for the main measure of Wall Street’s health.

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EMBRACING Stock Market Stoicism

By Vitaliy Katsenelson CFA

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Embracing Stock Market Stoicism 

2024 brought me back to a core Stoic principle that I hold close to my heart: the dichotomy of control. Here’s the gist: Some things are within our power—our values, our character, our decisions—and some aren’t—like your brother-in-law’s random (and possibly dumb) comment, your spouse’s mood, or the fact that every traffic light turns red right as you pull up.

In investing, it’s the same. We can control:

  • The quality of our research—being logical and thorough in our research
  • Our decisions and discipline—systematically following our research
  • Our reactions—how we react to the news and external environmental pressure (I will discuss this at the end of the letter)

The market can price our stocks however it pleases on a month-to-month—or even year-to-year—basis. That’s the part we can’t control. We have to remember that these market prices are merely opinions, not final verdicts. The Stoics teach us to focus our energy on what we can influence (our process) and accept what we can’t (the market’s whims).

This probably sounds straightforward, but there’s a twist that makes it harder for you, the client, to see how this all plays out in real time. You can easily check the portfolio’s value—my decisions, not so much. In theory, I could make subpar investments and hide behind fancy Stoic talk.

That’s exactly the why of these very detailed letters: to show you our thinking, walk you through our individual decisions. I write, you read—that’s our agreement. You’re the judge of whether my process makes sense. But I can’t do that part for you.

CONTINUE READING: https://investor.fm/embracing-stock-market-stoicism/?mc_cid=25f3bd9eb4&mc_eid=7a63a03234

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ICE and Bank of America [BoA] Indices

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The ICE 3-Month USD LIBOR interest rate is the average interest rate at which a selection of banks in London are prepared to lend to one another in American dollars with a maturity of 3 months.

The Bank of America US High Yield Constrained Index is a market value-weighted index of all domestic high-yield bonds and Yankee high-yield bonds (issued by a foreign entity and denominated in U.S. dollars), including deferred interest bonds and payment-in-kind securities.

The ICE BofA BB-B US High Yield Constrained Index is composed of U.S. dollar-denominated corporate debt publicly issued in the U.S. market rated BB through B, based on an average of Moody’s, S&P and Fitch ratings, with issuer exposure capped at 2%.

ICE BofA U.S. Convertible Index tracks the performance of publicly issued, exchange-listed US dollar denominated convertible securities of US companies with at least $50 million face amount outstanding and at least one month remaining to the final conversion date. Index constituents are market capitalization-weighted and rebalanced monthly.

ICE BofA ML MOVE Index is a widely used measure of bond market volatility, similar to the VIX Index for stocks. The MOVE Index (also known as the Merrill Lynch Option Volatility Estimate) is a yield-curve-weighted index that tracks the market’s expectation of volatility in the U.S. bond market based on 1-month Treasury options.

ICE Exchange-Listed Preferred & Hybrid Securities Index tracks the performance of exchange-listed US dollar denominated hybrid debt, preferred stock and convertible preferred stock publicly issued by corporations in the US domestic market. Preferred stock and notes must have a minimum amount outstanding of $100 million; convertible preferred stock must have at least $50 million face amount outstanding. Index constituents are market capitalization-weighted subject to certain constraints. The index is re-balanced monthly.

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DAILY UPDATE: TikToc, Walgreens & Hindenburg Research All Down as Markets Blast Off

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WASHINGTON — The US Supreme Court on Friday delivered a blow to TikTok by upholding a law that could potentially lead to the video-sharing social media platform being banned in the United States. The justices in an unsigned opinion with no dissents rejected a free speech challenge filed by the company, meaning the law is set to go into effect on Sunday as planned. The bipartisan law requires China-based TikTok owner ByteDance to divest itself of the company by Sunday, the day before President-elect Donald Trump is to take office. If no sale takes place, the platform used by millions of Americans will in theory be banned.

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Legendary short seller Nate Anderson announced this week that he is shutting down his firm, Hindenburg Research, due to extreme job stress. With only 11 employees, Anderson took gargantuan swings at companies—and their billionaire leaders. Hindenburg published deeply researched reports about companies it believed were overvalued and rife with corruption. It got its big break when it shorted electric truck-maker Nikola in 2020, calling the company an “intricate fraud.” Regulators took note, and it led to three fraud convictions for Nikola founder Trevor Milton.

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US stocks jumped on Friday amid a tech stock revival as investors assessed a week of key data and earnings reports alongside potential policy shifts under a Trump administration.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average (^DJI) gained 0.8% while the S&P 500 (^GSPC) rose 1%, coming off a losing day for the major gauges. The tech-heavy NASDAQ Composite (^IXIC) put on 1.5% as Nvidia (NVDA) and Tesla (TSLA) shares nudged back into the green.

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The US Department of Justice (DOJ) filed a lawsuit against Walgreens (WBA), one of the nation’s largest pharmacy chains, alleging widespread prescription drug practice violations. According to the DOJ, Walgreens improperly dispensed millions of prescriptions from August 2012 to the present day that either lacked “legitimate medical purpose” or were otherwise invalid.

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BLOOMBERG: U.S. Universal Index

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The Bloomberg U.S. Universal Index represents the union of the U.S. Aggregate Index, U.S. Corporate High Yield Index, Investment Grade 144A Index, Eurodollar Index, U.S. Emerging Markets Index, and the non-ERISA eligible portion of the CMBS Index.

The index covers USD-denominated, taxable bonds that are rated either investment grade or high-yield. Some Bloomberg U.S. Universal Index constituents may be eligible for one or more of its contributing sub-components that are not mutually exclusive. These securities are not double-counted in the index.

The Bloomberg U.S. Universal Index was created on January 1st, 1999, with index history back-filled to January 1st, 1990.

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HFR INVESTMENTS: Two Indices

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HFRX Equity Hedge Index serves as a daily-priced proxy for alternative strategies that maintain positions long and short, primarily in equity and equity derivative securities.

HFRX Fixed Income – Credit Index serves as a daily-priced proxy for alternative strategies that provide exposure to credit strategies. Credit strategies refers to a wide range of sub-strategies and may include corporate, sovereign, distressed, asset-backed, capital structure arbitrage, and other relative value approaches. Strategies may also include and utilize equity securities, credit derivatives, commodities, or currencies.

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JUNK: Rally Back?

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A Junk Rally is a general trend of out performance by companies that tend to score poorly along several dimensions, such as price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios, return on assets (ROA), balance sheet strength, levels of debt and volatility.

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EXTENDED Equity Strategies

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Extended equity strategies attempt to provide better returns than possible with long-only investments.

An example of an extended equity strategy is a 130/30 portfolio, which gets its designation from taking a 130% long position and a 30% short position. In practice, this would mean $100mm invested in stocks that are viewed as attractive. Next, the manager would borrow and sell short $30mm of unattractive stocks. Then the manager uses the proceeds from the short sale to buy an additional $30mm of attractive stocks. This results in a portfolio that has 130% long and 30% short exposure to stocks, or “extended” exposure to equities relative to a long-only, 100% stock portfolio.

Nevertheless, it’s important to point out that here is the risk of theoretical unlimited amount of loss with short selling, (i.e. the price of the short-sold stocks increases; the long position can only go down to $0).

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HOSPITAL Revenue Metrics Review

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The emphasis on hospital revenue metrics at hospitals may be a sign of misplaced prioritization away from patients and their well-being. For example:

  • Orthopedic Surgeons Generated the $2.75 Million in Hospital Revenue Per Orthopedist Per Year.
  • Interventional Cardiologists Generated $2.45 Million in Hospital Revenue Per Cardiologist Per Year.
  • General Surgeons Generated $2.17 Million in Hospital Revenue Per Surgeon Per Year.
  • Family Practice Doctors Generated $1.5 Million in Hospital Revenue Per Doctor Per Year.

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CURRENCY: Carried Orientated

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Carry-oriented currencies are higher-yielding currencies of countries where interest rates are generally higher than those of countries with lower-yielding currencies.

These higher-yielding currencies are targeted for “carry trades,” where investors borrow money in a low-interest rate currency and invest in a higher yielding currency, potentially profiting from the difference in interest rates.

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NOTIONAL Value

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Notional Value is the face value or principal amount that an investor holds of a debt security.

This value is not subject to market pricing.

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DEMAGOGUES: Value and Growth Stocks

SPECIAL REPORT

By Vitaliy Katsenelson CFA

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About Value & Growth Demagogues
You can listen to a professional narration of this article on iTunes & online.
I have a problem with both growth and value demagogues.

Growth demagogues will argue that valuation is irrelevant for high-growth companies because the price you pay for growth doesn’t matter. They usually say this after a very extended move in growth stocks, where these investors look like gods that walk on water. They call value investors “accountants.”

The price you pay matters (this is not a new message). As we’ve discussed in the past, if you bought great, high-growth companies near the end of the Nifty Fifty bubble in the 1960s or near the end of the dotcom bubble in the 1990s, it took more than a decade to break even (after first struggling through double-digit losses).

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CREDIT: Much About Agreements!

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Credit report with score on a desk

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Credit analysis is a form of financial analysis used primarily to determine the financial strength of the issuer of a security, and the ability of that issuer to provide timely payment of interest and principal to investors in the issuer’s debt securities. Credit analysis is typically an important component of security analysis and selection in credit-sensitive bond sectors such as the corporate bond market and the municipal bond market.

Credit default swap index (CDX) is a credit derivative, based on a basket of CDS, which can be used to hedge credit risk or speculate on changes in credit quality.

Credit default swaps (CDS) are credit derivative contracts between two counterparties that can be used to hedge credit risk or speculate on changes in the credit quality of a corporation or government entity.

Credit quality reflects the financial strength of the issuer of a security, and the ability of that issuer to provide timely payment of interest and principal to investors in the issuer’s securities. Common measurements of credit quality include the credit ratings provided by credit rating agencies such as Standard & Poor’s and Moody’s. Credit quality and credit quality perceptions are a key component of the daily market pricing of fixed-income securities, along with maturity, inflation expectations and interest rate levels.

Credit Rating Agency (CRA) is a company that assigns credit ratings for issuers of certain types of debt obligations as well as the debt instruments themselves. In the United States, the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) permits investment banks and broker-dealers to use credit ratings from “Nationally Recognized Statistical Rating Organizations” (NRSRO) for similar purposes. As of January 2012, nine organizations were designated as NRSROs, including the “Big Three” which are Standard and Poor’s, Moody’s Investor Services and Fitch Ratings.

Credit rating downgrade, by a credit rating agency (Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s or Fitch) means reducing its credit rating for a debt issuer and/or security. This is based on the agency’s evaluation, indicating, to the agency, a decline in the issuer’s financial stability, increasing the possibility of default. A downgrade should not to be confused with a default; a debt security can be downgraded without defaulting. And, conversely, a debt issuer can suddenly default without being downgraded first–credit ratings and credit rating agencies are not infallible.

Credit ratings are measurements of credit quality provided by credit rating agencies. Those provided by Standard & Poor’s typically are the most widely quoted and distributed, and range from AAA (highest quality; perceived as least likely to default) down to D (in default). Securities and issuers rated AAA to BBB are considered/perceived to be “investment-grade”; those below BBB are considered/perceived to be non-investment-grade or more speculative.

Credit risk is the inability or perceived inability of the issuers of debt securities to make interest and principal payments will cause the value of those securities to decrease. Changes in the credit ratings of debt securities could have a similar effect.

Credit Risk Transfer Securities (CRTS) are unsecured obligations of the GSEs (Government Sponsored Enterprises). Although cash flows are linked to prepays and defaults of the reference mortgage loans, the securities are unsecured loans, backed by general credit rather than by specified assets.

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IBBOTSON: Intermediate-Term Treasuries Index

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Ibbotson Intermediate-Term Treasuries Index constructed by Ibbotson Associates using long-term historical data. The index calculates total returns from historical index prices and calculates income using a coupon accrual method.

The index replicates intermediate-term bond performance by selecting the Treasury bond with maturity closest to five years, holds it for the calendar year, then rolls to the next five-year bond.

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SUSTAINABILITY Defined

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Sustainability focuses on meeting the needs of the present without compromising the ability of future generations to meet their needs. There are many different approaches to Sustainability, with motives varying from positive societal impact, to wanting to achieve competitive financial results, or both.

Methods of sustainable investing include active share ownership, integration of ESG factors, thematic investing, impact investing and exclusion among others.

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EARNED INCOME: Defined

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What Counts as ‘Earned Income’?

The IRS defines earned income as money you get for working, including the following:

  • Wages
  • Commissions
  • Bonuses
  • Tips
  • Honorariums for speaking, writing or taking part in a conference or convention
  • Self-employment income

Income that doesn’t qualify includes:

  • Taxable pension payments
  • Interest income
  • Dividends
  • Rental income
  • Alimony
  • Withdrawals from Roth IRAs or other non-taxable retirement accounts
  • Annuity income
  • Welfare benefits
  • Unemployment compensation
  • Worker’s compensation payments
  • Social Security income.

Cite: https://www.irs.gov/credits-deductions/individuals/earned-income-tax-credit/earned-income-and-earned-income-tax-credit-eitc-tables

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DAILY UPDATE: United Health Owned Insurance Fined and CFPB Hides Medical Debt as Nvidia Leads Stock Markets Down

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Essays, Opinions and Curated News in Health Economics, Investing, Business, Management and Financial Planning for Physician Entrepreneurs and their Savvy Advisors and Consultants

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Three UnitedHealth-owned insurance companies must pay over $165 million for misleading thousands of customers in Massachusetts into paying for additional health insurance, a state judge has ruled.

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Nvidia stock (NVDA) tumbled more than 6% Tuesday, a day after shares closed at a record high in anticipation of CEO Jensen Huang’s keynote at the tech industry’s annual CES trade show in Las Vegas.

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Dow ends down nearly 180 points, NASDAQ tumbles 1.9% as Treasury yields surge after job-openings, ISM services data

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The Biden administration’s Consumer Financial Protection Bureau (CFPB) issued a new rule Tuesday that will hide an estimated $49 billion in medical debt from credit reports. The rule, which is slated to affect 15 million Americans, prohibits the inclusion of medical bills on credit reports and bars creditors from using medical information in making lending decisions. The policy specifically targets national credit-reporting companies Equifax, Experian and Transunion, which provide detailed evaluations of consumer finances to banks, employers and landlords.

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INSTITUTE: Supply Management (ISM) Manufacturing Index

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Institute for Supply Management (ISM) Manufacturing Index. Now, published on a monthly basis, the ISM surveys more than 300 manufacturing firms on employment, production, new orders, supplier deliveries, and inventories.

A composite diffusion index of national manufacturing conditions is constructed, where readings above (below) 50 percent indicate an expanding (contracting) manufacturing sector.

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MONEY Supply in Circulation

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MONEY SUPPLY: The amount of money in circulation. The money supply measures
currently (1985) used by the Federal Reserve System are:


 M 1 – Currency in circulation + demand deposit + other check-type deposits. 35
 M2 – M 1 + savings and small denomination time deposits + overnight repurchase
agreements at commercial banks + overnight Eurodollars + money market mutual
fund shares.
 M3 – M2 + large-denomination time deposits (Jumbo CDs) + term repurchase
agreements.
 M4 – M3 + other liquid assets (such as term Eurodollars, bankers acceptances,
commercial paper, Treasury securities and U.S. Savings Bonds)

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BULLET Bond Structure

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A Bullet bond structure is a bond portfolio structure that clusters a portfolio’s bond maturities around a single maturity (usually an intermediate-term maturity).

This structure tends to perform best when the yield curve is moving from flat to steep (long-term rates are rising faster than short-term rates, or short-term rates are falling faster than long-term rates).

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OUTCOME: Bias

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Outcome bias is judging a decision based on its result rather than the quality of the decision at the time it was made.

It’s like saying a bad poker play was smart because you won the hand. Or, a bad stock picker or financial advisor was good because the price went up!

According to psychologist and colleague Dan Ariely PhD, this bias ignores the process and focuses solely on the outcome. It’s why we celebrate lucky breaks and criticize thoughtful risks that didn’t pan out.

So, the next time you’re evaluating a decision, focus on the reasoning behind it, not just the end result.

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DAILY UPDATE: Chinese Stocks and Wall Street Down

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China’s stock market suffered its worst start to a year in nearly a decade, as investors brace for Donald Trump to impose tariffs on the world’s second-largest economy. The CSI 300 index closed down 2.9pc on Thursday, marking its steepest drop on the first day of annual trading since 2016, while the Hang Seng in Hong Kong fell 2.2pc.

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The fall for US stocks accompanied a rally in the dollar, a popular haven, which set a fresh two-year high Thursday and opened little changed Friday. The yen climbed in early trading after a third daily decline against the greenback in the prior session. The moves are a sign the selling that has sapped US equities over the past week may be starting to turn. Investors are preparing to implement asset-allocation strategies for the 2025 year ahead after a rocky end to 2024.

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Visualize: How private equity tangled banks in a web of debt, from the Financial Times.

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K SHAPED: Economy and Recovery

By Staff Reporters

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Understanding the K-shaped Economy

According to Olivia Voltaggio, in a V-shaped economy, things go down but then bounce back for everyone. In a K-shaped economy, the overall economy might go down. Only some parts of it recover, while others keep struggling.

In a K-shaped economy, people’s financial situations vary widely. Not everyone faces the same struggles. Lenders and financial institutions need to be flexible with strategy. They need to understand the different challenges their customers are dealing with.

Navigate with caution: The gaps in economic recovery highlight the importance of taking a careful, strategic approach.

How did we end up with a K-shaped recovery in 2024?

Inflation-driven price increases seem to be getting more stable. But, they may not reach the goal set by the government until 2026. This has made things more expensive for regular families.

For example, people with student loan debt had to start paying it back in October 2023. This was after a pandemic-induced grace period. Student loan repayment made budgeting harder. Borrowers might need to spend more on average than expected. For young adults (Gen Z), it could be even more.

Finally, more people are using credit cards because things are getting more expensive. Some are struggling to pay their credit card bills on time.

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DAILY UPDATE: Markets Down Closing Out Year!

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US stocks slipped Tuesday, closing 2024 with an uncharacteristic down note after a roaring year of trading. The S&P 500 (^GSPC) fell 0.4%. The Dow Jones Industrial Average (^DJI) dropped just below the flatline, while the tech-heavy NASDAQ Composite (^IXIC) led the losses at 0.9%.

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Despite the sour final stretch, the benchmark S&P 500 closed 2024 up 23%, according to Yahoo Finance data. The tech-heavy NASDAQ Composite gained almost 30%. The Dow Jones Industrial Average posted a more modest 13% win. The S&P’s annual gain roughly matches 2023’s performance, logging the highest consecutive back-to-back annual gain in nearly 30 years.

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Visualize: How private equity tangled banks in a web of debt, from the Financial Times.

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LUCAS Paradox

By Staff Reporters

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The Lucas Paradox occurs when capital is not flowing from developed countries to developing countries despite the fact that developing countries have lower levels of capital per worker, and therefore higher returns to capital.

According to Wikipedia, economic theory predicts that capital should flow from rich countries to poor countries, due to the effect of diminishing returns of capital. Poor countries have lower levels of capital per worker – which explains, in part, why they are poor. In poor countries, the scarcity of capital relative to labor should mean that the returns related to the infusion of capital are higher than in developed countries.

In response, savers in rich countries should look at poor countries as profitable places in which to invest. In reality, things do not seem to work that way. Surprisingly little capital flows from rich countries to poor countries. This puzzle was famously discussed in a paper by Robert Lucas PhD in 1990.

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CHINA: Li Keqiang Index

By Staff Reporters

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The Li Keqiang Index was created in 2010 by The Economist and measure’s China’s economy using three indicators: railway cargo volume, electricity consumption and bank loans.

The index is seen as an alternative to official gross domestic product numbers released by the Chinese government.

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DAILY UPDATE: Covid-19 Update as Stock Markets Fall Again and US Treasury Hacked

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Stat: 4 in 10. That’s about how many US nursing home residents got an updated Covid-19 vaccine in the winter of 2023–24, according to the CDC, despite the recommendation that adults 65 and older get the new shot. (KFF)

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Stocks fell on Monday, with the woes of the three major indexes continuing in the final week of the year as an otherwise strong 2024 comes to a close.

The benchmark S&P 500 (^GSPC) slipped more than 1% while the tech-heavy NASDAQ Composite (^IXIC) fell roughly 1.2%. The Dow Jones Industrial Average (^DJI) fell about 0.8%.

Stocks moved lower as the 10-year Treasury yield (^TNX) retreated from a seven-month high to hover near 4.55%. Stocks closed out last week with a Friday slide from Big Tech names like Tesla (TSLA) and Nvidia (NVDA), with the NASDAQ Composite falling 1.5% and the S&P 500 down over 1%.

The highly anticipated “Santa Claus” rally, which is statistically one of the most consistent seven-day positive stretches of the year for the S&P 500, has flopped thus far. Since 1950, the S&P 500 has risen 1.3% during the seven trading days beginning December 24th, well above the typical seven-day average of 0.3%, according to LPL Financial chief technical strategist Adam Turnquist. In the current period, the S&P 500 is down nearly 1%.

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Chinese state-sponsored hackers breached the U.S. Treasury Department’s computer security guardrails this month and stole documents in what Treasury called a “major incident,” according to a letter to lawmakers that was provided to Reuters on Monday.

The hackers compromised third-party cybersecurity service provider BeyondTrust and were able to access unclassified documents, the letter said.

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MARKETS: Risk-On, Risk-Off and On-Off

By Staff Reporters

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Risk-On

RO = Asset prices commonly follow the risk sentiment of the market. Investors look for changing sentiment through corporate earnings, macro-economic data, and global central bank action. An increase in the stock market or where stocks outperform bonds is said to be a risk-on environment.

Risk-on environments can be carried by expanding corporate earnings, optimistic economic outlook, accommodative central bank policies, and speculation. As the market displays strong influential fundamentals, investors perceive less risk about the market and its outlook.

Risk-Off

ROff = When stocks are selling off, and investors run for shelter to bonds or gold, the environment is said to be risk-off. Risk-off environments can be caused by widespread corporate earnings downgrades, contracting or slowing economic data, and uncertain central bank policy.

Just like the stock market rises in a risk-on environment, a drop in the stock market equals a risk-off environment. Investors jump from risky assets and pile into high grade bonds, U.S. Treasury bonds, gold, cash, and other safe havens

Risk-On Risk-Off?

Risk-on-risk-off investing relies on and is driven by changes in investor risk tolerance. Risk-on-risk-off (RORO) can also sway changes in investment activity in response to economic patterns. When risk is low, investors tend to engage in higher-risk investments. Investors tend to gravitate toward lower-risk investments when risk is perceived to be high.

Note: Thanks to Chat GPT.

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PHANTOM: Income Tax on TIPS

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“Phantom Tax” or “Phantom Income” for direct owners of Treasury inflation-protected securities (TIPS) TIPS adjust their principal values and interest payments for inflation. As with other directly owned Treasury securities, TIPS principal, including the inflation adjustments, is not paid back to investors until the securities mature.

However, the principal adjustments are taxed by the IRS as income in the year in which they occur, even though no actual payments are made in those years to investors who own TIPS directly. This is why this income is called “phantom income” and the tax on it is known as the “phantom tax.”

Investors can avoid the phantom income/tax issue for TIPS by holding TIPS in tax-deferred retirement accounts. Mutual funds and Exchange Traded Funds (ETFs) typically take the “phantom” factor out of TIPS ownership by distributing the principal adjustments as taxable dividends.

As with direct ownership of TIPS, the tax consequences of these distributions by mutual funds and ETFs can be reduced by holding TIPS-owning instruments in tax-deferred retirement accounts

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STOCK MARKET TRAPS: Overbought Bulls and Oversold Bears

By Staff Reporters

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What Is a Bull Trap?

A bull trap, according to James Chen, is a false signal, referring to a declining trend in a stock, index, or other security that reverses after a convincing rally and breaks a prior support level. The move “traps” traders or investors that acted on the buy signal and generates losses on resulting long positions. A bull trap may also refer to a whipsaw pattern. Read: Bull Trap.”

What is a Bear Trap

The opposite of a bull trap is a bear trap, which occurs when sellers fail to press a decline below a breakdown level.

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PCE: Personal Consumption Expenditures

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PCE or the Personal Consumption Expenditures (“PCE”) price deflator—comes from the Bureau of Economic Analysis’ quarterly report on U.S. gross domestic product—and is based on a survey of businesses and is intended to capture the price changes in all final goods, no matter the purchaser.

Because of its broader scope and certain differences in the methodology used to calculate the PCE price index, the Federal Reserve (“the Fed”) holds the PCE deflator as its preferred, consistent measure of inflation over time.

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DAILY UPDATE: Medicare Tele-Health Out as DJIA Finishes Up a Tad

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Absent Congressional action, beginning January 1sy, 2025, the statutory limitations that were in place for Medicare telehealth services prior to the COVID-19 PHE will retake effect for most telehealth services.

This means most telehealth visits will not be covered by Medicare in 2025, unless Congress acts by the end of December 2024.

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(Reuters) -The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed fractionally higher on Thursday, stretching its winning streak to five sessions despite light trading volumes and rising U.S. Treasury yields weighing on some of the dominant technology megacaps.

While the NASDAQ Composite and the S&P 500 were broadly unchanged, the indexes both finished slightly in negative territory. This snapped the NASDAQ’s four-session run of higher closes, and ended the S&P 500’s own run at three sessions.

On a day of few catalysts, investors responded to yields on U.S. government bonds inching higher, including the yield on the benchmark 10-year Treasury note hitting its highest since early May at 4.64% earlier in the session. And, a strong auction of seven-year notes early in the afternoon though helped yields come off slightly, with the 10-year note at 4.58% in late-afternoon trade.

Higher yields are traditionally seen as negative for growth stocks, as it raises the cost of their borrowing to fund expansion. With markets increasingly dominated by the megacap technology stocks known as the Magnificent Seven, crimping their performance – especially in lieu of other market catalysts – will put downward pressure on benchmark indexes.

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The S&P 500 slipped 2.45 points, or 0.04%, to 6,037.59 points, while the NASDAQ Composite lost 10.77 points, or 0.05%, to 20,020.36. The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 28.77 points, or 0.07%, to 43,325.80.

Six of the megacaps fell, with Tesla leading decliners with a 1.8% fall. The outlier was Apple, rising 0.3% and continuing to edge closer to becoming the first company in the world to hit a market value of $4 trillion.

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CORPORATE EARNINGS: Per Share, Yield and EBDITA

DEFINITIONS

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Earnings per share (EPS): The portion of a company’s profits allocated to each outstanding share of its common stock. It is as an indicator of a company’s profitability.

Earnings yield: Earnings per share for the most recent 12 months, divided by the current market price per share; it is the inverse of the price to earnings (P/E) ratio.

EBITDA: Earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization (EBITDA) is an approximate measure of a company’s operating cash flow.

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MANDEVILLE’S Economic Paradox

DEFINITION

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Bernard Mandeville’s Paradox represent actions that may be vicious to individuals may also benefit society as a whole.

Mandeville’s Paradox challenges traditional moral and economic assumptions about selfishness and virtue. It suggests that economic systems can thrive on individual self-interest, a concept that has influenced modern economic thought, particularly in the development of free-market ideologies.

Understanding this paradox is crucial for economists, policymakers, and philosophers as it complicates the evaluation of behaviors and policies based solely on their perceived moral qualities. It invites a complex analysis of how individual actions, regardless of their intentions, contribute to the broader welfare of society.

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HFR INVESTMENTS: Two Credit Indices

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HFRI Fund of Funds Composite Index invests with multiple managers through funds or managed accounts. The strategy designs a diversified portfolio of managers with the objective of significantly lowering the risk (volatility) of investing with an individual manager. The Fund of Funds manager may allocate funds to numerous managers within a single strategy, or with numerous managers in multiple strategies. The investor has the advantage of diversification among managers and styles with significantly less capital than investing with separate managers. The HFRI Fund of Funds Index is not included in the HFRI Fund Weighted Composite Index.

HFRI Fund Weighted Composite Index is a global, equal-weighted index of over 2,000 single-manager funds that report to HFR Database. Constituent funds report monthly net of all fees performance in U.S. Dollar and have a minimum of $50 Million under management or a twelve (12) month track record of active performance. The HFRI Fund Weighted Composite Index does not include Funds of Hedge Funds.

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SECTOR ALLOCATION: Mutual Funds

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Sector allocation in an equity or fixed-income context refers to a portfolio managers’ decision to invest in a particular broad market sector or industry.

A sector allocation or breakdown can help an investor observe the investment allocations of a mutual or other fund. Fund companies regularly provide sector reporting in their marketing materials. Sector investing can influence investments in the fund. A fund may target a specific sector such as technology, or seek to diversify among many sectors.

Some funds may have restraints on sector investments. This may occur with environmental, social, and governance (ESG) focused funds. These funds seek to exclude industries or companies that their investors consider undesirable for various reasons such as tobacco producers or oil exploration companies.

The ultimate sector allocation decision is likely to combine macroeconomic views with judgments about inter-sector and intra-sector relative values, among other reasons.

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DAILY UPDATE: Ascension Healthcare Cyber Crime Attack as Stock Market “Christmas Rallies” On!

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MERRY CHRISTMAS and HAPPY HANUKKAH

The financial markets will close early on Tuesday, December 24th, for Christmas Eve and will be closed on Wednesday, December 25th, for Christmas Day. Brokerage firms will process transaction requests received after 1 p.m., Eastern time, on Tuesday, December 24th, as if received on Thursday, December 26th, before 4 p.m., Eastern Standard time

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CITE: https://www.r2library.com/Resource

Healthcare provider Ascension has revealed the sensitive data of 5.6 million patients was compromised in a massive cyberattack earlier this year. The ransomware attack occurred in May and threw the company into turmoil, with patient portals and files inaccessible, elective services postponed, and some ambulances diverted, according to a filing with the Maine Attorney General that was reported by TechRadar. Ascension did not name the hackers, but CNN reporting indicated it stemmed from a Russian-speaking cybercrime affiliate known as Black Basta. It’s not clear if Ascension paid a ransom to get their systems back online.

CITE: https://tinyurl.com/2h47urt5

US stocks rallied in the final, shortened trading session before the Christmas holiday. The benchmark S&P 500 (^GSPC) finished the session up over 1.1%, while the tech-heavy NASDAQ Composite (^IXIC) rose roughly 1.4%. The Dow Jones Industrial Average (^DJI) climbed around 0.9%.

Wall Street successfully entered its Christmas break rejuvenated, after tech stocks including AI chip giant Nvidia (NVDA) led the march higher. Markets closed at 1 p.m. ET and are off tomorrow for Christmas Day.

Sizable gains in the past three trading sessions have put the indexes back on the path toward their record highs, from which they took a Fed-fueled nosedive last week.

CITE: https://tinyurl.com/tj8smmes

Visualize: How private equity tangled banks in a web of debt, from the Financial Times.

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NOMINAL YIELD: Calculation

DEFINED

By Staff Reporters

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Nominal yield, for most bonds and other fixed-income securities, is simply the yield you see listed online or in newspapers. Most nominal fixed-income yields include some extra yield, an “inflation premium,” that is typically priced/added into the yields to help offset the effects of inflation.

Real yields, such as those for TIPS, don’t have the inflation premium. As a result, nominal yields are typically higher than TIPS yields and other real yields.

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