DAILY UPDATE: Bitcoin, MicroStrategy and Credit Card Competition as the DJIA Hits a Record

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Bitcoin jumped about 130% this year, but MicroStrategy has skyrocketed almost 500%.

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The proposed Credit Card Competition Act (CCCA) could devastate credit card rewards at the national level if passed. Now, states are getting involved too Read on.

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STOCKS UP

Ross Stores rose 2.19% after beating earnings estimates but missing sales forecasts last quarter, with shoppers spending less thanks to inflation.

  • MicroStrategy tumbled big time yesterday after a short seller report highlighted the risk inherent in betting it all on bitcoin, but the stock recovered 6.19% today.
  • Super Micro Computer continues to recover from the brink of defeat, rising another 11.62% as investors beg the tech company’s forgiveness for ever doubting it.
  • Data analytics company Elastic sprang 14.77% higher today on a strong earnings report highlighted by rising demand from customers building AI applications.

STOCKS DOWN

Tax-filing company Intuit sank 5.68% after reporting strong earnings last quarter but forecasting weaker results this quarter.

  • Reddit dropped 7.18% after a one-two punch from shareholders: Tencent Holdings sold a chunk of its stake in the social media company, while Advance Magazine Publishers is selling its stake but, through some financial trickery, is keeping control of the shares.
  • Palo Alto Networks may have beaten earnings expectations yesterday afternoon, but the cybersecurity stock fell 3.61% after shareholders weren’t impressed by its full-year guidance.

CITE: https://tinyurl.com/tj8smmes

Here’s where the major benchmarks ended:

  •  The S&P 500® index (SPX) rose 20.63 points (0.35%) to 5,969.34 to end the week up 1.68%; the $DJI gained 426.16 points (0.97%) to 44,296.51 to end the week up 1.96%; and the NASDAQ Composite® ($COMP) added 31.23 points (0.16%) to 19,003.65 to end the week up 1.73%.
  • The 10-year Treasury note yield fell two basis points to 4.41% and is down two basis points for the week, while the 2-year note yield rose seven basis points this week as rate cut odds fell.
  • The CBOE Volatility Index® (VIX)fell sharply to 15.31 and finished slightly lower for the week.

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MORTGAGE BACKED SECURITIES: Prepayment Risk

DEFINITION

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Prepayment risk is typically used in reference to mortgage-backed securities. It refers to the risk that mortgage refinancing activity might increase when market interest rates decline, which is generally not favorable for MBS investors.

For example, when homeowners refinance their mortgages, MBS investors are “prepaid,” shortening the life of their investments and forcing investors to reinvest the proceeds under lower interest rate conditions than what were most likely prevailing at the time of the original MBS investment.

Price adjustments for prepayment risk are one factor that helps explain why MBS, despite their generally high credit quality, have higher yields than comparable-maturity Treasury securities.

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DAILY UPDATE: Google and Ford Motor as Stock Markets Rise and Broaden

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The DOJ asked a judge to force Google to sell its Chrome browser, following his ruling that Google maintained an illegal monopoly in search.
Ford said it is cutting 4,000 jobs in Europe, about 14% of its workforce on the continent, citing weak demand for EVs and competition from Chinese cars.

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STOCKS UP

  • Data analytics firm Snowflake soared 32.71% after posting impressive earnings, including a 28% increase in revenue last quarter.
  • BJ’s Wholesale Club has had an okay year, but its latest earnings report gave shareholders plenty to cheer. The big news: BJ’s is increasing its membership fee for the first time in seven years. Shares rose 8.24%.
  • Despite the fact that the world’s largest farming equipment manufacturer sees a big slowdown ahead, Deere beat earnings estimates last quarter, which was enough to help shares climb 8.12%.

STOCKS DOWN

It took a second, but it’s finally registering that Alphabet may be forced by the Department of Justice to divest its popular Chrome browser. Shares fell 4.74% as investors digest this stark reality.

  • Speaking of search engines, Baidu sank 5.90% after the Chinese tech stock missed analyst estimates on both earnings and revenue last quarter.
  • Speaking of Chinese companies, PDD Holdings, parent company of online retailer Temu, reported higher earnings and revenue last quarter—but it still fell short of analyst forecasts. Shares dropped 10.64%.
  • Speaking of struggling retailers, Beyond Inc., the company that owns Bed, Bath & Beyond and Overstock.com, was supposed to invest $40 million into struggling retailer The Container Store. Unfortunately for both, the deal fell through. Shares of Beyond sank 2.87%, while The Container Store dropped 9.79%.

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Here’s where the major benchmarks ended:

  • The SPX buoyed 31.60 points (0.53%) to 5,948.71; the Dow Jones Industrial Average® ($DJI) rose 461.88 points (1.06%) to 43,870.35; and the NASDAQ Composite® ($COMP) stayed relatively flat, up 6.28 points (0.03%) to 18,972.42.
  • The 10-year Treasury note yield added two basis points to 4.42%, staying rangebound.
  • The CBOE Volatility Index® (VIX) slipped to 16.87, still above last week’s levels.

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Visualize: How private equity tangled banks in a web of debt, from the Financial Times.

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INVESTMENT: Management Strategies

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Active investment management strategies are the opposite of passive investment strategies. Active portfolio managers regularly take investment positions that clearly differ from those of the portfolio’s performance benchmark, with the objective of outperforming the benchmark over time.

Passive: https://medicalexecutivepost.com/2024/06/09/active-or-passive-investing-pursuits/

In addition to the upside potential of outperforming the benchmark, there’s also the downside possibility of under performing the benchmark. In an efficient market, there should be roughly the same magnitude of out performers and under performers for any given benchmark. But, markets are not always efficient.

Active non-transparent investment management strategies are Exchange Traded Funds that are actively managed by a portfolio manager or team of managers without daily disclosure of portfolio holdings. Active transparent strategies are daily disclosures of portfolio holdings as an attribute of traditional index-based Exchange Traded Funds (ETFs). Active transparent exchange traded funds are actively managed by a portfolio manager or team of managers. As with index-based ETFs, their portfolio holdings are disclosed daily.

Di-Worsification: https://medicalexecutivepost.com/2024/04/09/what-is-financial-portfolio-di-worsification-2/

NOTE: Absolute return as an investment vehicle seeks to make positive returns by employing investment management techniques that differ from traditional mutual funds. Absolute return investment techniques include using short selling, futures, options, derivatives, arbitrage, leverage and unconventional assets.

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GROSSMAN-STIGLITZ: Financial Information Paradox

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The Grossman-Stiglitz Paradox was introduced by Sanford J. Grossman and Joseph Stiglitz in a joint publication in American Economic Review in 1980 that argues perfectly informationally efficient markets are an impossibility since, if prices perfectly reflected available information, there is no profit to gathering information, in which case there would be little reason to trade and markets would eventually collapse.

IOW: According to colleague Eugene Schmuckler PhD MBA CTS, the Grossman-Stiglitz paradox is the inability to recoup the cost of obtaining market information and thus implies that efficient markets cannot exist.

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DAILY UPDATE: GoodRx as Stocks End Flat

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It’s not all good news for GoodRx.

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STOCKS UP

Williams-Sonoma soared 27.50% to a record high after the home goods store beat top and bottom line earnings expectations. Its operating profit margin jumped to 17.8% from 17% last year, and the company said its board greenlit a $1 billion stock buyback plan.

  • Wix jumped 14.31% on a solid beat for its third quarter. Profit for the software firm reached $0.46 per share, compared to the $0.12 per share it reported last year.
  • Lemonade rose 16.04% after Morgan Stanley upgraded the insurance company from “underweight” to “equal-weight.” At its investor day, Lemonade unveiled a plan to juice its premiums from $1 billion to $10 billion over the next several years.

STOCKS DOWN

  • Ford said it was cutting 4,000 jobs in Europe, about 14% of its workforce on the continent, citing weak demand for EVs and competition from Chinese cars. Shares fell 2.90%.
  • Qualcomm dropped 6.34% after its first Investor Day in three years disappointed. On Tuesday, the chipmaker revealed its big plans to expand from its bread-and-butter smartphone business into making chips for cars and PCs.
  • Elf sank 2.23% after short seller Carson Block, the founder of Muddy Waters Research, accused the beauty company of inflating revenue.

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Here’s where the major benchmarks ended:

  •  The S&P 500® index (SPX) stayed mostly flat, up 0.13 points (0.0%) to 5,917.11; the Dow Jones Industrial Average® ($DJI) rose 139.53 points (0.32%) to 43,408.47; and the NASDAQ Composite® ($COMP) fell 21.32 points (0.11%) to 18,966.14. 
  • The 10-year Treasury note yield added four basis points to 4.41%.
  • The CBOE Volatility Index® (VIX) climbed to 17.26, near recent highs.

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Visualize: How private equity tangled banks in a web of debt, from the Financial Times.

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Stocks, Treasuries, Gold and Bitcoin

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  • Stocks sank yesterday on news that Russian President Vladimir Putin lowered the threshold for using nuclear weapons, retaliation against the US for allowing Ukraine to use American-made long-range missiles. The NASDAQ and S&P 500 managed to recover, but the DJIA stayed all day in the red.
  • Treasury yields dropped as bonds rose.
  • Gold popped as traders sought safety, as the commodity benefited from the US dollar pulling back from a recent one-year high.
  • Bitcoin continued to climb slowly but surely, reaching another new all-time high.

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CBOE: Chicago Board Options Exchange [Volatility Indexes]

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RELATED DEFINITIONS

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Volatility indexes are forward-looking measures of the market’s expectations of volatility (or how much a stock index’s price moves). The CBOE manages and publishes three of the most widely used volatility indexes based on three major stock indexes:

The VIX Index tracks the expected 30-day future volatility of the S&P 500 Index.

The VXN Index tracks the expected 30-day future volatility of the NASDAQ-100 Index.

The VXD Index tracks the expected 30-day future volatility of the Dow Jones Industrial Average Index.

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SECURITY ORDERS: Stop-Loss and Stop-Limit

By Dr. David Edward Marcinko MBA MEd

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A Stop order, also known as a “stop-loss order,” a stop order is an order placed with a bank or brokerage firm to either buy or sell a security after it reaches a specified price. Once the price is reached, the stop order becomes a market order, meaning there is no guarantee that an order will be completely filled at the specified stop price.

MORE: https://medicalexecutivepost.com/2024/08/30/stock-orders-positions-doctors-should-know/

A Stop-limit order is order placed with a bank or brokerage firm to buy or sell a fixed amount of an investment after it reaches a specified or better price, combining the features of a stop order and a limit order.

MORE: https://medicalexecutivepost.com/2024/08/07/about-securities-order-and-position-types/

A stop-limit order requires investors to set two price points: the first initiates the stop (the order to buy or sell) and the second sets the limit, or price beyond which the investor would not like to buy or sell. The investor also sets a time frame for which the order is valid before being cancelled. If the investor’s price cannot be met during the specified time frame, the order will be cancelled.

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DAILY UPDATE: All About the Stock Markets

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  • Stocks ended the day mixed, with the Dow sinking into the red while the S&P 500 and NASDAQ kicked off the week on a positive note thanks to gains from tech stocks.
  • Oil popped on a double-whammy of news: Long-range, US-made ballistic missiles launched from Ukraine into Russia might disrupt oil supply, while the shutdown of Norway’s Johan Sverdrup oil field due to a power outage will definitely disrupt oil supply.
  • Crypto continued its hot streak today: Bitcoin popped back above $90,000, giving other cryptocurrencies a boost.
  • Bitcoin’s boom has certainly helped MicroStrategy, which announced today that it purchased 51,780 bitcoins for approximately $4.6 billion in cash, or roughly $88,627 per bitcoin, in the last week alone.

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STOCKS UP

The new Trump Trade continues: The president-elect’s selection of Liberty Energy CEO Chris Wright to lead the Department of Energy gave Liberty a 4.85% boost today. Wright is also on the board of nuclear company Oklo, which popped 14.83%.

  • Speaking of Trump, Trump Media & Technology Group soared 16.65% on the news that it may purchase crypto trading firm Bakkt.
  • Netflix disappointed viewers with its glitchy showing of Jake Paul vs. Mike Tyson, but shareholders forgave the company after it announced record viewership of the fight. Shares climbed 2.80%.
  • CVS Health gained 5.41% on news that it struck a deal with activist investor Glenview Capital Management to add four new seats to its board.
  • Robinhood jumped 8.29% to a new all-time high thanks to an upgrade from Needham analysts giving the investing app a “buy” rating due to its crypto offerings under a pro-crypto Trump presidency.
  • Warner Bros. Discovery rose 2.71% on a Wall Street Journal report that it has settled its legal dispute with the NBA, guaranteeing broadcast rights for the next decade.

STOCKS DOWN

  • Nvidia isn’t often in this section of the newsletter, but the semiconductor leader sank 1.29% today on a report from The Information that its new Blackwell chips are prone to overheating.
  • Palantir popped after moving over to the Nasdaq last week, but the red-hot software stock dropped 6.86% as investors collected profits.
  • Redfin may help you buy a house, but the online real estate brokerage is a “sell,” according to Goldman Sachs. The Wall Street firm cited low home sales, low affordability, and low chances of success in a competitive market. Shares fell 4.42%.
  • Uber dropped 5.35% to a new 52-week low on the threat of Tesla’s robotaxis ruling the road thanks to a Trump administration that seems keen on cutting self-driving regulations.

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Here’s where the major benchmarks ended:

  •  The SPX was up 23.00 points (0.4%) to 5893.62; the Dow Jones Industrial Average® ($DJI) fell 55.39 points (0.1%) to 43,389.6; and the NASDAQ Composite® ($COMP) was up 111.69 points (0.6%) to 18,791.81.
  • The 10-year Treasury note yield fell one basis point to 4.41%.
  • The CBOE Volatility Index® (VIX) eased to 15.57.

CITE: https://tinyurl.com/tj8smmes

Visualize: How private equity tangled banks in a web of debt, from the Financial Times.

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DAILY UPDATE: Spirit Airlines in Chapter 11 as Nvidia Rises and Target, Lowes & Walmart Highlight Stock Earnings Week

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Spirit Airlines said Monday it has filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection after struggling with losses, growing debt and a failed merger during the post-pandemic travel lull. The company said in a stock market statement that it had secured a prearranged deal with bondholders that includes £300 million in financing to keep it afloat, with the business planning to end its bankruptcy in the first quarter of 2025.

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Analysts are expecting Nvidia, the world’s largest publicly traded company, to show quarterly sales of ~$33 billion, up 10% from the previous quarter and 83% year over year, but they also warn the mind-blowing growth of the chip maker could begin to slow.

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And, reports this week from Walmart, Target, Lowe’s, and other retailers will offer a peek at consumer health.

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IRMAA: Income Related Monthly Adjustment Amount

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The income-related monthly adjustment amount (IRMAA) is a fee you pay on top of your Medicare Part B and Part D premiums if you make a yearly income above the annual thresholds.

READ: https://secure.ssa.gov/poms.nsf/lnx/0601101020

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DAILY UPDATE: 401[k] and Wamco as Stock Markets Crash!

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The Internal Revenue Service (IRS) ruled that employees at an unnamed company can designate a portion of their employer match to student debt repayments or health reimbursement accounts, in addition to their traditional 401(k).

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STOCKS UP

  • Warren Buffett’s Midas touch gave a boost to Domino’s Pizza and Pool Corp. after Berkshire Hathaway announced it has bought shares of both companies. Domino’s popped to start the day but dropped 1.27%, while Pool climbed just 0.54%.
  • Palantir is jumping ship, moving from the NYSE to the Nasdaq. Shareholders liked the move, pushing the stock up 11.14%.
  • Bloom Energy…bloomed 59.19% on the news that the renewable energy company reached an agreement to provide utility company American Electric Power with 1 gigawatt worth of fuel cells.

STOCKS DOWN

  • What Buffett giveth, Buffett taketh away: Apple sank on the news that Berkshire Hathaway has sold shares of the company, and almost completely eliminated its position in Ulta Beauty. Apple fell 1.41%, while Ulta Beauty dropped 4.60%.
  • Shareholders were expecting the worst from Chinese online retailer Alibaba, and although the company actually beat earnings forecasts, it wasn’t enough—shares still sank 2.20%.
  • Applied Materials tumbled 9.20% after beating both top and bottom line expectations, but shareholders balked at the slowdown in several key businesses.
  • AST SpaceMobile plummeted 9.59% after reporting bigger losses and smaller sales than Wall Street wanted to see.

CITE: https://tinyurl.com/2h47urt5

Here’s where the major stock market benchmarks ended:

  • The SPX fell 78.55 points (–1.32%) to 5,870.62 to end the week down 2.08%; the Dow Jones Industrial Average® ($DJI) lost 305.87 points (–0.70%) to 43,444.99 to end the week down 1.24%; and the NASDAQ Composite® ($COMP) decreased 427.52 points (–2.24%) to 18,680.12 to end the week down 3.15%.
  • The 10-year Treasury note yield rose one basis point to 4.43% but added 12 basis points for the week. Shorter-term yields rose less.
  • The CBOE Volatility Index® (VIX) climbed sharply to 16.11 as stocks fell.

CITE: https://tinyurl.com/tj8smmes

The problems at storied bond manager Western Asset Management keep growing. Clients have pulled about $55 billion from Wamco, as the division is known, since mid-August, representing about 15% of its assets. Franklin Templeton, its 77-year-old parent company and one of the largest asset managers in the U.S., recently reported its steepest quarterly outflows on record.

Visualize: How private equity tangled banks in a web of debt, from the Financial Times.

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Convertible Securities, Bonds and Corporate Securities

By Dr. David Edward Marcinko MBA MEd

SPONSOR: http://www.MarcinkoAssociates.com

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Convertible securities are those that can be converted at the investor’s choice into other investments, normally into shares of the issuer’s underlying common stock. Convertibles are typically issued as bonds or preferred stock.

Convertible bonds, which provide an ongoing stream of income, can be converted into a preset number of shares of the company’s common stock and have a maturity date. Unlike common stock, which pays a variable dividend depending on a corporation’s earnings, convertible preferred stock pays a fixed quarterly dividend. It can be converted into common stock at any time, but often are perpetual.

Corporate securities (corporate bonds and notes) are debt instruments issued by corporations, as distinct from those issued by governments, government agencies, or municipalities.

Corporate securities typically have the following features: 1) they are taxable, 2) they tend to have more credit (default) risk than government or municipal securities, so they tend to have higher yields than comparable-maturity securities in those sectors; and 3) they are traded on major exchanges, with prices published in newspapers.

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INVESTMENT STRATEGIES: Market Neutral and Extended Equity

By Staff Reporters

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Equity market neutral strategies seek to eliminate the risks of the equity market by holding up to 100% of net assets in long equity positions and up to 100% of net assets in short equity positions. These strategies attempt to exploit differences in stock prices by being long and short in stocks within the same sector, industry, market capitalization, etc. If successful, these strategies should generate returns independent of the equity market.

Equity market neutral portfolios have two key sources of return: 1) the Treasury Bill return (the interest on proceeds from short sales held in cash as collateral), and 2) the difference (the “spread”) between the return on the long positions and the return on the short positions. Stock picking, rather than broad market moves, should drive most of a market-neutral strategy’s total return (save for any return from the 100% cash position).

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Extended Equity Strategies attempt to provide better returns than possible with long-only investments

An example of an extended equity strategy is a 130/30 portfolio, which gets its designation from taking a 130% long position and a 30% short position. In practice, this would mean $100mm invested in stocks that are viewed as attractive.

Next, the manager would borrow and sell short $30mm of unattractive stocks. Then the manager uses the proceeds from the short sale to buy an additional $30mm of attractive stocks. This results in a portfolio that has 130% long and 30% short exposure to stocks, or “extended” exposure to equities relative to a long-only, 100% stock portfolio.

Note: It’s important to point out that here is the risk of theoretical unlimited amount of loss with short selling, (i.e. the price of the short-sold stocks increases; the long position can only go down to $0).

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DAILY UPDATE: United Health, Cigna and Inflation as Stock Markets Flatten

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Essays, Opinions and Curated News in Health Economics, Investing, Business, Management and Financial Planning for Physician Entrepreneurs and their Savvy Advisors and Consultants

Serving Almost One Million Doctors, Financial Advisors and Medical Management Consultants Daily

A Partner of the Institute of Medical Business Advisors , Inc.

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UnitedHealth Group posted nearly $6.1 billion in profit last quarter, edging out Elevance Health with $5.6 billion. Paige Minemyer has more takeaways from third quarter earnings results.


Cigna told investors the company is no longer pursuing a merger with Humana, opting to avoid tricky questions from federal regulators.

CITE: https://www.r2library.com/Resource

STOCKS UP

  • EV startup Rivian popped 13.71% after announcing a new $5.8 billion joint venture with Volkswagen to collaborate on a new line of vehicles that will begin rolling off the assembly line in 2027.
  • Rocket Lab…rocketed 28.44% to a new all-time high after increasing revenue 55% last quarter and announcing the first launch deal for its new Neutron rocket.
  • Charter Communications will purchase Liberty Broadband in an all-stock deal. Charter shares rose 3.63% on the news, while Liberty shares sank 5.05%.
  • Cava reported strong earnings today, including impressive same-store sales growth of 18%. Shares soared on the open, though ended the day up just 1.57%.
  • Flutter Entertainment, parent company of sports betting app FanDuel, rose 6.89% to hit an all-time high thanks to incredibly strong betting on the NFL last quarter.

STOCKS DOWN

  • The problems continue at Super Micro Computer, which announced it will need EVEN MORE time to submit its quarterly 10-Q form to the SEC. That’s on top of the delayed filing of its annual 10-K filing from back in June—and if it doesn’t file that by November 16, the stock will be delisted from the Nasdaq. Shares sank 6.31%.
  • Spirit Airlines really may go bankrupt this time. The beleaguered airline has lost hope of merging with Frontier Airlines, so shares plunged 59.32%.
  • Maplebear, which is the parent company of Instacart, delivered bad news for shareholders: Next quarter will be worse than expected. Shares fell 11.01%.
  • SoundHound AI reported record revenue last quarter, but shares plummeted 17.06% after the voice recognition stock also revealed much lower margins.

CITE: https://tinyurl.com/2h47urt5

Here’s where the major benchmarks ended:

  • The S&P 500® index (SPX) rose 1.39 points (0.02%) to 5,985.38; the Dow Jones Industrial Average® ($DJI) added 47.21 points (0.11%) to 43,958.19; and the NASDAQ Composite® ($COMP) fell 50.66 points (–0.26%) to 19,230.74. 
  • The 10-year Treasury note yield added two basis points to 4.45%, just below last week’s four-month high.
  • The CBOE Volatility Index® (VIX) slid to 14.03, down sharply from above 20 early last week.

CITE: https://tinyurl.com/tj8smmes

The Labor Department on Wednesday reported that consumer prices in October rose 2.6% from a year earlier. That marks a pickup in the pace of inflation from September, when prices were up 2.4% on the year.

A digital token inspired by a Shiba Inu dog meme is now worth more than the company that pioneered the assembly line. Yesterday, dogecoin continued its post-election surge to become more valuable than 121-year-old Ford.

Visualize: How private equity tangled banks in a web of debt, from the Financial Times.

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FINANCIAL YIELDS: All About Fixed Income Securities

By Dr. David Edward Marcinko MBA MEd CMP™

SPONSOR: http://www.MarcinkoAssociates.com

SPONSOR: http://www.CertifiedMedicalPlanner.org

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Yield: For bonds and other fixed-income securities, yield is a rate of return on those securities. There are several types of yields and yield calculations. “Yield to maturity” is a common calculation for fixed-income securities, which takes into account total annual interest payments, the purchase price, the redemption value, and the amount of time remaining until maturity.

Yield curve: A line graph showing the yields of fixed income securities from a single sector (such as Treasuries or municipals), but from a range of different maturities (typically three months to 30 years), at a single point in time (often at month-, quarter- or year-end). Maturities are plotted on the x-axis of the graph, and yields are plotted on the y-axis. The resulting line is a key bond market benchmark and a leading economic indicator.

Yield to maturity [real yield to maturity]: Yield to maturity is a common performance calculation for fixed-income securities, which takes into account total annual interest payments, the purchase price, the redemption value, and the amount of time remaining until maturity. Real yield to maturity is simply yield to maturity minus any “inflation premium” that had been added/priced in. (See Real yield.)

Yield ratio: A ratio of one yield divided by another. Most often used as a relative value measurement.

Yield spread: A “spread,” in fixed income parlance, is simply a difference. Yield spreads measure yield differences, typically between debt securities with high credit ratings (which typically have lower yields) and those with lower ratings (which typically have higher yields). Yield spreads can also be measured between debt securities with different maturities (shorter-maturity securities typically have lower yields and longer-maturity securities typically have higher yields).

Yield trap: An investment that can lure investors with an attractive yield that may not be fundamentally sustainable, or that may lead to undesired price volatility. Yield traps can lurk in both the equity and fixed income markets. They have a tendency to prey on those who can least afford them, including retirement investors looking for increased relative income and stability, who may have been too focused on their income goals and not enough on stability.

CITE: https://www.r2library.com/Resource/Title/0826102549

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DAILY UPDATE: Bitcoin Fog as Chegg the DJIA and NASDAQ Drop

MEDICAL EXECUTIVE-POST TODAY’S NEWSLETTER BRIEFING

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Essays, Opinions and Curated News in Health Economics, Investing, Business, Management and Financial Planning for Physician Entrepreneurs and their Savvy Advisors and Consultants

Serving Almost One Million Doctors, Financial Advisors and Medical Management Consultants Daily

A Partner of the Institute of Medical Business Advisors , Inc.

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The operator of the longest-running money laundering machine in dark web history, Bitcoin Fog, has been sentenced to 12 years and six months in US prison. Roman Sterlingov, 36, a Russian-Swedish national, was also ordered to repay more than half a billion dollars accrued from the cryptocurrency mixing service that he ran for a decade between 2011 and 2021.

CITE: https://www.r2library.com/Resource

Stocks Up

  • r Elliott Investment Management is at it again, this time with a $5 billion stake in industrial conglomerate Honeywell. Shares gained 3.87% on the news.
  • Shopify announced its ninth consecutive quarter of beating analyst revenue expectations, pushing shares up 21.04%.
  • Bad news is good news: 40% of the workforce at 23andMe is getting laid off to cut costs. Shareholders cheered, and shares climbed 2.17%.
  • Where’s the beef? Tyson Foods popped 6.55% after announcing strong earnings thanks to higher beef and chicken prices last quarter.
  • Sentinel One climbed 2.01% after Deutsche Bank analysts upgraded the cybersecurity stock from “hold” to “buy,” noting it should profit from CrowdStrike’s outage earlier this year.

Stocks Down

CITE: https://tinyurl.com/2h47urt5

Here’s where the major benchmarks ended:

  • The S&P 500® index (SPX) fell 17.36 points (–0.29%) to 5,983.99; the Dow Jones Industrial Average® ($DJI) lost 382.15 points (–0.86%) to 43,910.98; and the NASDAQ Composite® ($COMP) decreased 17.36 points (–0.09%) to 19,281.40.
  • The 10-year Treasury note yield added 12 basis points to 4.43%.
  • The CBOE Volatility Index® (VIX) fell to 14.81, unusual on a day when stocks lost ground.

CITE: https://tinyurl.com/tj8smmes

Chegg is on the verge of collapse. Its stock is down 99% since 2021, the Wall Street Journal reported, wiping out nearly $15 billion in market value.

Visualize: How private equity tangled banks in a web of debt, from the Financial Times.

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PHYSICIAN: Pay Cuts in 2025

By Staff Reporters

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Doctors, Facing Another Pay Cut, Call for Permanent Medicare Payment Reform

The Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services (CMS) is moving forward with a 2.9% cut to physician payments in 2025 despite protest from major industry groups. CMS has finalized the calendar year 2025 Medicare Physician Fee Schedule rule that sets payment rates for next year and also outlines new policies focused on primary care, preserved telehealth flexibilities, and a strengthened Medicare Shared Savings Program (MSSP). 

But, provider groups were quick to condemn CMS’ decision to go ahead with the pay cut, which was proposed in the draft rule released in July. In a statement, Bruce Scott, MD, president of the American Medical Association (AMA), pointed out that that while physicians are receiving a 2.8% payment cut next year, medical practice costs for physicians will increase by 3.5% in 2025. After adjusted for inflation, Medicare reimbursement to physicians has decreased 29% since 2001, the AMA says.

Source: Heather Landi, Fierce Healthcare [11/2/24]

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Take the Physician-Focused FINANCIAL PLAN “Challenge”

Do You Have “What it Takes”?

Book Marcinko

DEM 2

By Professor David E. Marcinko MBBS DPM MBA MEd CMP®

Institute of Medical Business Advisors, Inc.

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www.CertifiedMedicalPlanner.org

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My History

More than 20 years ago I crafted a comprehensive holistic financial plan for a young doctor colleague who was born in 1959. In fact, he was not even a medical student at the time; so “canned off-the-shelf plans”, computer generated software or generic spread sheets were not a viable creation option. It was all a granular, detailed, specific and cognitive work-product. Today, he is a board-certified internist.

So, in 2023, it is right and just to take a look back and see how well, or poorly, we’ve fared.

Now, I appreciate more than most how financial planning is a “process”; and not an isolated event. Yet, all sorts of “advisors” and “consultants” create and charge hefty fees for same, and on-going monitoring, every day.

The ME-P Challenge

Nevertheless, I challenge all you mid-career or senior financial planners /advisors to this competition; regardless of degree, certification or designation.

“Show me your financial plan” – AND – “I’ll show you my financial plan”

Here Comes the Judge

Then, our community of ME-P readers, subscribers, visitors and “judges” will decide the winner.

The contest is open to any financial advisor, planner, consultant, wealth manager, CFP®, CFA, insurance agent, CPA or CLU, ChFC, or stock-broker, etc., who is not afraid of transparency in his or her work product and purported expertise.

Of Financial Certifications and Designations

*** [Creating and Evaluating a physician focused financial plan]

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Assessment

So, just send in a copy of any “blinded” physician-focused financial plan that is about 21 years old. We will post for all to see and review …. warts and all … including my own; three part mega-plan!

The winner will receive bragging rights, academic swagger, and expert promotion to our entire ME-P ecosystem and network of medical, business, law and graduate school communities; as well as physicians, nurses, healthcare executives and allied health care professionals.

An informed sought-after and lucrative sector – indeed!

IOW: Free publicity and positive “new-wave” PR – PRICELESS!

Of course, as an educator and professor of health economics and finance, we are pleased to present you with the deep medical business knowledge and detailed financial,managerial and accounting techniques used, with some real-life “tips and pearls” developed over the last two decades of R&D, right here:

MORE: Comprehensive Financial Planning Strategies for Doctors[Best Practices from Leading Consultants and Certified Medical Planners™]

MORE: Risk Management Liability Insurance, and Asset Protection Strategies for Doctors and Advisors [Best Practices from Leading Consultants and Certified Medical Planners™]

Conclusion

Your thoughts and comments on this ME-P are appreciated. Feel free to review our top-left column, and top-right sidebar materials, links, URLs and related websites, too. Then, subscribe to the ME-P. It is fast, free and secure.

Speaker: If you need a moderator or speaker for an upcoming event, Dr. David E. Marcinko; MBA – Publisher-in-Chief of the Medical Executive-Post – is available for seminar or speaking engagements. Contact: MarcinkoAdvisors@msn.com

OUR OTHER PRINT BOOKS AND RELATED INFORMATION SOURCES:

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Risk Management, Liability Insurance, and Asset Protection Strategies for Doctors and Advisors: Best Practices from Leading Consultants and Certified Medical Planners™           8Comprehensive Financial Planning Strategies for Doctors and Advisors: Best Practices from Leading Consultants and Certified Medical Planners™

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PART 1: My Sample Financial Plan I [Data gathering, goals and objectives]

PART 2: My Sample Financial Plan II [Data Analytics, Creation and Crafting]

PART 3: Request here: MarcinkoAdvisors@msn.com [Stress Testing and Completion]

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ANGUS DEATON’S: Paradox

By Staff Reporters

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Angus Deaton’s 1980s studies, including one called “Why is consumption so smooth?” gave birth to a concept called the Deaton Paradox — in short, sharp shocks to income didn’t seem to cause similarly large shocks to consumption.

IOW: Consumption varies surprisingly smoothly despite sharp variations in income.

CITE: https://www.r2library.com/Resource/Title/0826102549

According to David Henderson, this was an important development in understanding the actions of consumers, causing economists to rethink the “permanent income hypothesis” developed by Milton Friedman, which suggested that people spend based on their lifetime income.

And, Mike Bird wrote a good article on Deaton the highlighted the Nobel Prize in Economics Committee.

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DAILY UPDATE: About the Markets

MEDICAL EXECUTIVE-POST TODAY’S NEWSLETTER BRIEFING

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Essays, Opinions and Curated News in Health Economics, Investing, Business, Management and Financial Planning for Physician Entrepreneurs and their Savvy Advisors and Consultants

Serving Almost One Million Doctors, Financial Advisors and Medical Management Consultants Daily

A Partner of the Institute of Medical Business Advisors , Inc.

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SPONSORED BY: Marcinko & Associates, Inc.

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The S&P 500 closed above 6,000 for the first time. Chips fell on China trade tension. The US dollar rose. Treasuries were closed.

CITE: https://tinyurl.com/2h47urt5

Here’s where the major benchmarks ended:

  •  The SPX rose 5.81 points (0.10%) to 6,001.35; the Dow Jones Industrial Average® ($DJI) added 304.14 points (0.69%) to 44,293.13, a new all-time closing high; and the NASDAQ Composite® ($COMP) gained 11.99 points (0.06%) to 19,298.76.
  • The 10-year Treasury note yield (TNX) didn’t trade today due to the Veterans Day holiday.
  • The CBOE Volatility Index® (VIX) inched up to 15.05. 

CITE: https://tinyurl.com/tj8smmes

Visualize: How private equity tangled banks in a web of debt, from the Financial Times.

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ECONOMIC: Paradoxes all Financial Advisors Should Know

BY DR. DAVID EDWARD MARCINKO MBA MEd CMP™

SPONSOR: http://www.MarcinkoAssociates.com

SPONSOR: http://www.CertifiedMedicalPlanner.org

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A paradox is a logic and self-contradictory statement or a statement that runs contrary to one’s expectation. It is a statement that, despite apparently valid reasoning from true or apparently true premises, leads to a seemingly self-contradictory or a logically unacceptable conclusion. A paradox usually involves contradictory-yet-interrelated elements that exist simultaneously and persist over time. They result in “persistent contradiction between interdependent elements” leading to a lasting “unity of opposites”.

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And so, as we plan for our financial future thru a New Year Resolution for 2025, it’s helpful to be cognizant of these paradoxes. While there’s nothing we can do to control or change them, there is great value in being aware of them, so we can approach them with the right tools and the right mindset.

According to Adam Grossman, here are seven [7] of the paradoxes that can bedevil financial decision-making, clients and financial advisors, alike:

  1. There’s the paradox that all of the greatest fortunes—Carnegie, Rockefeller, Buffett, Gates—have been made by owning just one stock. And yet the best advice for individual investors is to do the opposite: to own broadly diversified index funds. More: https://tinyurl.com/285vftx4
  2. There’s the paradox that the stock market may appear over valued and yet it could become even more overvalued before it eventually declines. And when it does decline, it may be to a level that is even higher than where it is today.
  3. There’s the paradox that we make plans based on our understanding of the rules—and yet Congress can change the rules on us at any time, as the recent 2024 election results attest.
  4. There’s the paradox that we base our plans on historical averages—average stock market returns, average interest rates, average inflation rates and so on—and yet we only lead one life, so none of us will experience the average.
  5. There’s the paradox that we continue to be attracted to the prestige of high-cost colleges, even though rational analysis that looks at return on investment tells us that lower-cost state schools are usually the better bet.
  6. There’s the paradox that early retirement seems so appealing—and has even turned into a movement—and yet the reality of early retirement suggests that we might be better off staying at our desks.
  7. There’s the paradox that retirees’ worst fear is outliving their money and yet few choose the financial product that is purpose-built to solve that problem: the single-premium immediate annuity.

CITE: https://www.r2library.com/Resource/Title/0826102549

How should you respond to these paradoxes? As you plan for your financial future, embrace the concept of “loosely held views.”

In other words, make financial plans, but continuously update your views, question your assumptions and rethink your priorities.

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GIBSON’S PARADOX: Inaccurate Economic Observations

Why were interest rates and prices correlated?

By Staff Reporters

SPONSOR: http://www.MarcinkoAssociates.com

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Gibson’s paradox is based on an economic observation made by British economist Alfred Herbert Gibson regarding the positive correlation between interest rates and wholesale price levels. John Maynard Keynes later called this relationship a paradox because he claimed that it could not be explained by existing economic theories.

CITE: https://www.r2library.com/Resource/Title/0826102549

There have been possible explanations raised by economists to solve Gibson’s paradox over the decades. But as long as the relationship between interest rates and prices remains artificially de-linked, there may not be enough interest by today’s macro-economists to pursue it any further.

In the end, Gibson’s paradox was neither Gibson’s (having been previously discovered by others) nor a true paradox (as plausible explanations already existed at the time of Keynes’s writing and more have been explored since) and is of little interest beyond being a historical footnote to the gold standard era.

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BRICS: Economics Defined

By Staff Reporters

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BRIC is an acronym for the economies of Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa,combined.

CITE: https://www.r2library.com/Resource/Title/0826102549

These are considered to be large developing economies that are part of a global, twenty-first century shift in economic power and influence away from the more established, traditional developed economies of the twentieth century.

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SORTINO: A Financial Risk Ratio

DEFINED

By Staff Reporters

SPONSOR: http://www.MarcinkoAssociates.com

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The Sortino Ratio is similar to the Sharpe Ratio, it is a measure of risk-adjusted performance which looks at returns through the lens of the risk taken to achieve that performance, but instead of volatility of return, it uses downside variance as its measure of risk.

SHARP RATIO: https://medicalexecutivepost.com/2021/11/08/introducing-the-sharp-index/

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REO versus REIT

By Staff Reporters

SPONSOR: http://www.MarcinkoAssociates.com

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Real Estate Operating Company (REOC)

A company that invests in real estate and whose shares trade on a public exchange.

Real Estate Investment Trust (REIT)

A real estate operating company (REOC) is similar to a real estate investment trust (REIT), except that an REOC will reinvest its earnings into the business, rather than distributing them to unit holders like REITs do.

Also, REOCs are more flexible than REITs in terms of what types of real estate investments they can make.

CITE: https://www.r2library.com/Resource/Title/0826102549

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FINANCIAL Derivatives

By Dr. David Edward Marcinko MBA MEd

SPONSOR: http://www.MarcinkoAssociates.com

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Derivatives are securities whose performance and/or structure is derived from the performance and/or structure of other assets, interest rates, or indexes. If used moderately and in appropriate situations, derivatives can help stabilize portfolios and/or enhance returns. However, if used in excess and/or in inappropriate circumstances, they can be harmful, potentially causing portfolio instability and/or losses. Derivatives are similar to medicine in their behavior–usually safe when used as directed, potentially toxic when abused.

There are many different types of derivative securities and many different ways to use them. Some derivative securities, such as mortgage-related and other asset-backed securities, are in many respects like any other investment, although they may be more volatile or less liquid than more traditional debt securities.

Futures and options are commonly used for traditional hedging purposes to attempt to protect portfolios from exposure to changing interest rates, securities prices or currency exchange rates, and for cash management purposes as a low-cost method of gaining exposure to a particular securities market without investing directly in those securities.

Certain other derivative securities may be described as structured investments. A structured investment is a security whose value or performance is linked to an underlying index or other security or asset class. Structured investments include collateralized mortgage obligations (CMOs). Structured investments also include securities backed by other types of collateral.

CITE: https://www.r2library.com/Resource/Title/0826102549

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KENNETH ARROW: Information Paradox

To sell information you need to give it away before the sale

By Dr. David Edward Marcinko MBA MEd

SPONSOR: http://www.MarcinkoAssociates.com

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THE FATHER OF HEALTH ECONOMICS

According to Wikipedia, a fundamental tenet of the paradox is that the customer, i.e. the potential purchaser of the information describing a technology (or other information having some value, such as facts), wants to know the technology and what it does in sufficient detail as to understand its capabilities or have information about the facts or products to decide whether or not to buy it. Once the customer has this detailed knowledge, however, the seller has in effect transferred the technology to the customer without any compensation. This has been argued to show the need for patent protection [HIPPA].

CITE: https://www.r2library.com/Resource/Title/0826102549

If the buyer trusts the seller or is protected via contract, then they only need to know the results that the technology will provide, along with any caveats for its usage in a given context. A problem is that sellers lie, they may be mistaken, one or both sides overlook side consequences for usage in a given context, or some unknown-unknown affects the actual outcome.

MORE :https://www.nobelprize.org/prizes/economic-sciences/1972/arrow/facts/

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CURRENCY OPTIONS: Hedging and Overlays

By Dr. David Edward Marcinko MBA MEd

SPONSOR: http://www.MarcinkoAssociates.com

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Currency Hedging is a risk-management strategy, as part of a foreign investment strategy, currency hedging is designed to reduce the impact from changes in the relative values of currencies involved in the foreign investment strategy.

CITE: https://www.r2library.com/Resource/Title/0826102549

In any foreign investment strategy, a significant part of the potential risk and return comes from exposure to relative currency value fluctuations. If exposure to those currency fluctuations is minimized, investors can experience more of a “pure play” exposure to the foreign investments. There is a variety of possible currency hedging strategies, ranging from swaps, options, and spot contracts to simply buying foreign currencies.

Currency Overlay is a financial trading strategy used to separate the management of currency risk from other portfolio strategies. A currency overlay manager can seek to hedge the risk from adverse movements in exchange rates, and/or attempt to profit from tactical currency views.

CITE: https://www.r2library.com/Resource/Title/0826102549

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DAILY UPDATE: FOMC Cuts Interest Rates as Stock Markets Rise

MEDICAL EXECUTIVE-POST TODAY’S NEWSLETTER BRIEFING

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Essays, Opinions and Curated News in Health Economics, Investing, Business, Management and Financial Planning for Physician Entrepreneurs and their Savvy Advisors and Consultants

Serving Almost One Million Doctors, Financial Advisors and Medical Management Consultants Daily

A Partner of the Institute of Medical Business Advisors , Inc.

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The Federal Reserve cut interest rates by 0.25 percentage points Thursday, the second consecutive cut after a two-year rate-hike run to curb post-pandemic inflation.

CITE: https://www.r2library.com/Resource

What’s up

  • Lyft announced impressive earnings results thanks to more commuters using the ride-hailing service, as well as upbeat guidance for the future. Shares rose 22.92%.
  • Shareholders worried about a housing market slowdown hurting Zillow had nothing to fear: The real estate website crushed earnings estimates, and shares popped 23.77%.
  • Warner Bros. Discovery enjoyed its biggest single-quarter surge in subscribers ever thanks to streaming service Max, which sent shares soaring 11.81%.
  • Under Armour rocketed 23.33% higher after its cost-savings plan paid off last quarter and management guided for a strong quarter ahead.
  • Planet Fitness surprised shareholders with a solid quarter for the gym giant, as well as forecasts of more growth ahead. Shares climbed 11.26%.
  • Prison operators GEO Group and CoreCivic both surged on Trump’s election, and their rally continued today—in-spite of very different paths forward for each stock. GEO Group gained 13.63%, while CoreCivic rose 25.60%.

What’s down

  • Trump Media & Technology Group was one of the biggest winners on election night, and although the stock soared over the last few days, investors decided to take profits today. Shares sank 22.97%.
  • Wolfspeed plummeted 39.24% after announcing larger-than-expected losses last quarter, poor forecasts for next quarter, and layoffs to cut costs.
  • Match Group shareholders were heartbroken to hear that Tinder’s revenue fell last quarter, though strong revenue growth from Hinge helped ease the pain. Shares dropped 17.87%.
  • Virgin Galactic isn’t just a mean nickname from your high school years—it’s also a space stock that can’t make money to save its life. Shares fell 11.87%.

CITE: https://tinyurl.com/2h47urt5

Here’s where the major benchmarks ended:

  • The S&P 500® index (SPX) rose 44.06 points (0.74%) to 5,973.10; the Dow Jones Industrial Average® ($DJI) fell 0.59 points (0.00%) to 43,729.34; and the NASDAQ Composite® ($COMP) gained 285.99 points (1.51%) to 19,269.46.
  • The 10-year Treasury note yield (TNX) fell nine basis points to 4.34%, with most of the drop coming long before the Fed decision.
  • The CBOE Volatility Index® (VIX) continued its post-election plunge to 15.21.

CITE: https://tinyurl.com/tj8smmes

Visualize: How private equity tangled banks in a web of debt, from the Financial Times.

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INVESTING NEWS: Stocks, Bonds, Oil, Gold, Bitcoin and Sectors Review Post Election

By Staff Reporters

SPONSOR: http://www.MarcinkoAssociates.com

BREAKING NEWS!

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  • Stocks surged and stayed higher all yesterday day on news of Donald Trump’s presidential victory. The Dow rocketed over 1,350 points as soon as markets opened, and all three indexes ended the day at record highs.
  • Treasury yields have paralleled Trump’s chances of taking the White House for the last few weeks, and his election sent them soaring to over 4.46% at one point today.
  • Oil and gold both fell as the dollar rose after Trump’s win. The greenback popped on the promise of Trump’s protectionist tariff policies and the lower likelihood of the Fed cutting interest rates as fast as previously expected.
  • Bitcoin surged as traders celebrated the beginning of the new, friendlier regulatory environment that Trump promised during his campaign.

CITE: https://www.r2library.com/Resource/Title/0826102549

Sector check-up

  • Financials were the biggest sector mover Wednesday, up 6.16%, hitting a new high.
  • Industrials were up 3.93% Wednesday, hitting a new high.
  • Energy was up 3.54% in the session. It’s now 4.28% from the April high.
  • Real Estate fell 2.64% during trading. It’s now 5.6% from the high. 
  • Consumer Staples fell 1.5%. The sector is 5.76% from the September high.
  • Utilities fell 1%. It’s now 5.72% from the mid-October high.
  • Duke Energy was flat over the past three months, and it is 6.3% from the October high.

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DAILY UPDATE: Record Stock Market Blast Off Post Trump Presidential Election

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Stocks Up

  • One more group of stocks that soared on a Trump election: Big Tech companies with antitrust problems. Another Trump presidency should go a long way toward clearing up the regulatory hurdles many companies have faced recently, which is why Alphabet popped 3.99% and Amazon rose 3.8%.
  • CVS Health surged 11.33% after meeting revenue forecasts but missing earnings expectations. However, the miss was due to a one-time charge, so shareholders quickly forgave the healthcare retailer.
  • Planet Fitness gained 6.09% on a surprise bid for bankrupt fitness chain Blink Holdings in an attempt to bolster its own gym business.

Stocks Down

  • Super Micro Computer had a chance to show the world it wasn’t committing the fraud it has recently been accused of. Instead, the company announced it is still unable to determine when it will file the quarterly report due August 29. Shares crashed 18.05%.
  • Home builder stocks sank on fears that a Trump presidency will slow the rate of Fed rate cuts, keeping mortgage rates higher for longer. DR Horton fell 3.8%, Lennar dropped 4.84%, Pulte Group lost 3.09%, and Toll Brothers tumbled 1.46%.
  • Cannabis stocks were betting big on a ballot measure in Florida to allow the sale of recreational marijuana. The initiative’s failure sent shares of Curaleaf plummeting 29.17%, Trulieve Cannabis plunged 38.8%, and Ayr Wellness sank 55.87%.

CITE: https://tinyurl.com/2h47urt5

Here’s where the major benchmarks ended:

  • The S&P 500® index (SPX) rose 146.28 points (2.53%) to 5,929.04; the Dow Jones Industrial Average® ($DJI) added 1,508.05 points (3.57%) to 43,729.93; and the NASDAQ Composite® ($COMP) gained 544.29 points (2.95%) to 18,983.47—a new closing high. 
  • The 10-year Treasury note yield (TNX) surged 14 basis points to 4.43%, its highest level since July.
  • The CBOE Volatility Index® (VIX) fell sharply to 16.3 as election-related uncertainty diminished.

CITE: https://tinyurl.com/tj8smmes

Visualize: How private equity tangled banks in a web of debt, from the Financial Times.

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STOCK MARKETS: Roaring and Soaring!

BREAKING FINANCIAL NEWS

By Staff Reporters

SPONSOR: http://www.MarcinkoAssociates.com

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Stocks just roared out of the gate this Wednesday morning following news that former President Donald Trump has secured a second term in the White House and Republicans won a majority in the Senate.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 1,341 points, or about 3.1 percent, as the market opened, reaching a record high. It was the first time it has jumped more than 1,000 points in a single day since November 2022.

The S&P 500 also gained 1.9 percent, and the NASDAQ climbed 1.8 percent.

Despite concern from big business about Trump’s plan to impose blanket tariffs on imports to the U.S., Wall Street is anticipating tax cuts and deregulation during a second Trump presidency.

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INVESTING RISKS: Retained Earnings, Weighted Assets and Sequence of Return

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Retained Earnings Risk: Profits generated by a company that are not distributed to stockholders as dividends. Instead, they are either reinvested in the business or kept as a reserve for specific objectives, such as paying off debt or purchasing equipment. Retained earnings risks are also called “undistributed profits,” “undistributed earnings,” or “earned surplus.”

Risk-Weighted (or risk-adjusted) Assets: Within the context of measuring the financial stability of banks and other financial institutions, the risk-weighted assets figure is an aggregate of a financial institution’s assets (usually loans to its customers) after the loans have been individually adjusted for their risk. This involves multiplying each loan by a factor that reflects its risk. Low-risk loans are multiplied by a low number, high-risk by high. The aggregate number can then be used to calculate the financial institution’s capital ratio. Lower risk-weighted assets typically result in higher capital ratios, and higher risk-weighted assets usually translate to lower capital ratios.

Sequence-of-Returns Risk: The risk of market conditions impacting the overall returns of an investment portfolio during the period when a retiree is first starting to withdrawal money from investments as income. For example, if a retiree has to withdrawal income from his or her portfolio when market prices are depressed, the portfolio may lose out on the potential returns that income could have made once market prices recovered.

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DAILY UPDATE: Home Buyers and Jeff Bezos as Stock Markets Soar!

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First-time homebuyers in 2024 had a median income of $97,000, and their median age was 38. ​​OpenAI and Jeff Bezos invested in Physical Intelligence, a robot startup with the aim of “bringing general-purpose AI into the physical world.”

CITE: https://www.r2library.com/Resource

Stocks Up

  • Cybersecurity darling Palantir soared 23.38% to a record high thanks to strong earnings, high AI demand, and big spending from the Department of Defense.
  • Astera Labs skyrocketed 37.70% after the semiconductor parts maker (and one of Nvidia’s key suppliers) announced strong earnings.
  • Crypto stocks had a great day thanks to a widespread cryptocurrency rally. Coinbase rose 4.13%, MicroStrategy gained 2.16%, and Riot Platforms jumped 8.13%.

Stocks Down

Trump Media & Technology Group arrested its recent downturn and popped 12% at one point today, but gave all those gains up and ended the day down 1.16%.

  • You’d think the end of a multi-week labor dispute costing billions of dollars would be a relief for shareholders, but Boeing still sank 2.62% on news that it’s reached an agreement with striking machinists.
  • It’s a me, lower revenue forecasts! Nintendo fell 1.68% after announcing that sales of its Switch console are starting to sag.
  • Wynn Resorts sagged 9.34% thanks to misses on both top and bottom line expectations last quarter.
  • Some of the smaller semiconductor stocks on the market took a beating today. NXP Semiconductor dropped 5.17% after announcing weaker-than-expected Q4 guidance, Lattice Semiconductor tumbled 1.37% after missing on sales forecasts and announcing job cuts, and while Cirrus Logic beat expectations this quarter, it still fell 7.09% on lower forecasts.

CITE: https://tinyurl.com/2h47urt5

Here’s where the major benchmarks ended:

  • The S&P 500® index (SPX) rose 70.07 points (1.23%) to 5,782.76; the Dow Jones Industrial Average® ($DJI) added 427.28 points (1.02%) to 42,221.88; and the NASDAQ Composite® ($COMP) increased 259.19 points (1.43%) to 18,439.17.
  • The 10-year Treasury note yield (TNX) dropped two basis points to 4.29%.
  • The CBOE Volatility Index® (VIX) slipped to 20.72.

CITE: https://tinyurl.com/tj8smmes

Visualize: How private equity tangled banks in a web of debt, from the Financial Times.

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GDP: Private Domestic Health Care Investments

By Dr. David Edward Marcinko MBA MEd CMP™

SPONSOR: http://www.MarcinkoAssociates.com

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SPONSOR: http://www.CertifiedMedicalPlanner.org

GROSS PRIVATE DOMESTIC HEALTH CARE INVESTMENTS

Classic:  Investment purchases and private expenditures of healthcare firms, the value of related construction, and the change in inventory during the year.

Modern: Gross Revenue Per Day is the average amount charged by a hospital for one day of inpatient care (gross inpatient revenue divided by patient-census days).

CITE: https://www.r2library.com/Resource/Title/0826102549

Examples:

  • Gross Revenue Per Discharge: The average amount charged by a hospital to treat an inpatient from admission to discharge (gross inpatient revenue divided by discharges).
  • Gross Revenue Per Visit: The average amount charged by a hospital for an outpatient visit (gross outpatient revenue divided by outpatient visits).

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ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE: Big Technology Stocks

By Staff Reporters

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After its AI-related earnings disappointed Wall Street last quarter, Big Tech doubled down in the latest period:

  • Amazon spent $22.6 billion on property and equipment like data centers and chips. That’s an 81% spike from the same time last year.
  • Meta raised its low-end guidance for capex (capital expenditures), which could reach $40 billion by the end of the year. It beat earnings estimates, even with AR glasses subsidiary Reality Labs costing $4.4 billion in operating losses.
  • Apple is still betting on Apple Intelligence to boost sales. Most revenue came from the new iPhone 16, Apple Watch, and AirPods, but Apple services like TV+ and iCloud also grew massively to account for a quarter of the business.
  • Google crushed earnings estimates and revealed that more than 25% of all new code it writes is generated by AI (and reviewed by engineers).

CITE: https://www.r2library.com/Resource/Title/0826102549

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DAILY UPDATE: CVS Splits as Stocks Down in Slow Session

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Among consideration for CVS is splitting up its assets: CVS Pharmacy, pharmacy benefit manager CVS Caremark, and insurance arm Aetna. The company has reportedly been in talks with bankers about the move, Reuters reported early this month.

CITE: https://www.r2library.com/Resource

STOCKS UP

  • Just as Nvidia will replace Intel, Sherwin Williams will replace Dow Inc. on the Dow (how embarrassing, getting kicked off an index you share a name with). Sherwin Williams popped 4.59%, while Dow Inc. fell 2.08%.
  • Chewy is also getting added to an index, replacing Stericycle on the MidCap 400. Shares rose 6.34%.
  • Peloton pedaled 3.59% higher on a double upgrade from Bank of America analysts, who like the bike company’s higher profit outlook and hiring of new CEO Peter Stern from Ford.
  • Yum! China, the company that operates Pizza Hut and KFC restaurants in China, climbed 7.12% after announcing that new store openings translated into better-than-expected revenue and earnings last quarter.

STOCKS DOWN

Nuclear energy stocks took a big hit today after the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission ruled that Talen Energy could not increase the amount of energy its nuclear plant in Susquehanna, PA, produces in order to power an Amazon data center. Talen fell 2.23%, Vistra Corp sank 3.18%, and Constellation Energy plummeted 12.46%.

CITE: https://tinyurl.com/2h47urt5

Here’s where the major benchmarks ended:

  • The S&P 500® index (SPX) dipped 16.11 points (–0.28%) to 5,712.69; the $DJI dropped 257.59 points (–0.61%) to 41,794.60; and the $COMP lost 59.93 points (–0.33%) to 18,179.98.
  • The 10-year Treasury note yield (TNX) fell five basis points to 4.31%.
  • The CBOE Volatility Index® (VIX)edged up to 22.11, still below last week’s peaks.

CITE: https://tinyurl.com/tj8smmes

Visualize: How private equity tangled banks in a web of debt, from the Financial Times.

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Recent Court Actions Provide Insight into Future of Fraud & Abuse Laws

By Health Capital Consultants, LLC

Two recent court actions may serve as harbingers for the future of healthcare fraud and abuse laws. In September 2024, a federal judge in the Southern District of West Virginia ordered parties in a qui tam False Claims Act and Stark Law case to brief the court on the implications of Loper Bright Enterprises v. Raimondo on the interpretation of the Stark Law to the case at hand.

That same month, a federal judge in the Middle District of Florida dismissed a qui tam lawsuit on a novel theory that the False Claims Act’s whistleblower provisions are unconstitutional.

This Health Capital Topics article discusses these cases and the potential impact on federal fraud and abuse laws. (Read more…)

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STRIPES: Separate Trading of Registered Interest and Principal of Securities)

By Staff Reporters

SPONSOR: http://www.MarcinkoAssociates.com

DEFINITIONS

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STRIPS (Separate Trading of Registered Interest and Principal of Securities) is an acronym that describes both a government bond issuance program and the securities issued by the program. STRIPS are a form of zero-coupon security (defined below) created under the U.S. Treasury’s STRIPS program.

Originally, zero-coupon securities were created by broker-dealers who bought Treasury bonds and deposited these securities with a custodian bank. The broker-dealers then sold receipts representing ownership interests in the coupons or principal portions of the bonds.

CITE: https://www.r2library.com/Resource/Title/0826102549

Some examples of zero-coupon securities sold through custodial receipt programs are CATS (Certificates of Accrual on Treasury Securities), TIGRs (Treasury Investment Growth Receipts) and generic TRs (Treasury Receipts). The U.S. Treasury subsequently introduced a program called Separate Trading of Registered Interest and Principal of Securities (STRIPS), through which it exchanges eligible securities for their component parts and then allows the component parts to trade in book-entry form.

STRIPS are direct obligations of the U.S. government and have the same credit risks as other U.S. Treasury securities. STRIPS are generally considered the most liquid (easily bought and sold) zero-coupon securities.

GOVERNMENT: https://www.treasurydirect.gov/marketable-securities/strips/

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DAILY UPDATE: Ford, Peloton and Starbucks as Stocks Climb

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Ford paused production of its F-150 Lightning electric truck from mid-November to early January as demand for the once-coveted EV dwindles.

Peloton named Peter Stern, the co-founder of Apple Fitness+, as its next CEO.

Starbucks is bringing back Sharpied names on cups for the first time in four years as new CEO Brian Niccol tries to shake up the struggling coffee chain.

CITE: https://www.r2library.com/Resource

STOCKS UP

  • Boeing offered striking machinists yet another new contract offer, including a 38% pay raise over the next four years. The union will vote on the contract on Monday. Shares climbed 3.54%.
  • Avis Budget motored 10.92% higher despite missing forecasts on both earnings and revenue. Shareholders celebrated the rental car company’s strong growth expectations from management and took advantage of a cheap valuation.
  • Globalstar rocketed 32.38% after the satellite communications company announced an expanded deal with Apple.
  • Charter Communications soared 11.87% after losing fewer subscribers than expected, which is like a back-handed compliment in the investing world.

STOCKS DOWN

  • Trump Media & Technology Group remains on the roller coaster, falling another 13.53% today as early exit polls show Vice President Kamala Harris with a lead in several key states.
  • Wayfair may have met earnings expectations last quarter, but the online home goods retailer also lost customers and fulfilled fewer orders. Shares fell 6.26%.
  • Super Micro Computer continued to sell off after the resignation of its financial auditor, an almost-sure sign of fraud. Shares sank another 10.51%.

CITE: https://tinyurl.com/2h47urt5

  • The S&P 500® index (SPX) rose 23.35 (0.41%) to 5,728.80 to end the week down 1.37%; the Dow Jones Industrial Average® ($DJI) added 288.73 points (0.69%) to 42,052.19 to end the week down 0.15%; and the NASDAQ Composite®($COMP) gained 144.76 points (0.80%) to 18,239.92 to end the week down 1.50%.
  • The 10-year Treasury note yield (TNX) climbed eight points to 4.36%, the highest since early July.
  • The CBOE Volatility Index® (VIX)remained elevated at 21.88.

CITE: https://tinyurl.com/tj8smmes

Visualize: How private equity tangled banks in a web of debt, from the Financial Times.

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QUARTERLY EARNINGS: Reports Disclosed

By Staff Reporters

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Quarterly earning reports dropped

Meta reported record revenue but missed on user growth.

Microsoft beat revenue expectations thanks to the AI-driven demand for its Azure cloud platform.

Starbucks had a pretty meh report but CEO Brian Niccol revealed that the chain would stop charging extra for nondairy milk.

DoorDash reported its first operating profit since the pandemic.

Super Micro stock fell more than 30% during yesterday’s trading session after its auditor, Ernst & Young, resigned due to disagreements.

And, despite crypto getting renewed interest as of late, Coinbase missed on revenue and earnings

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CREDIT: All About Contractual Agreements

By Staff Reporters

SPONSOR: http://www.MarcinkoAssociates.com

DEFINITIONS

What Is CREDIT? Credit is a contractual agreement in which a borrower receives a sum of money or something else of value and commits to repaying the lender later, typically with interest. Credit is also the creditworthiness or credit history of an individual or a company. Good credit tells lenders you have a history of reliably repaying what you owe on loans. Establishing good credit is essential to getting a loan.

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Credit Analysis is a form of financial analysis used primarily to determine the financial strength of the issuer of a security, and the ability of that issuer to provide timely payment of interest and principal to investors in the issuer’s debt securities. Credit analysis is typically an important component of security analysis and selection in credit-sensitive bond sectors such as the corporate bond market and the municipal bond market.

Credit Default Swap Index (CDX) is a credit derivative, based on a basket of CDS, which can be used to hedge credit risk or speculate on changes in credit quality.

Credit Default Swaps (CDS) are credit derivative contracts between two counter parties that can be used to hedge credit risk or speculate on changes in the credit quality of a corporation or government entity.

Credit Quality reflects the financial strength of the issuer of a security, and the ability of that issuer to provide timely payment of interest and principal to investors in the issuer’s securities. Common measurements of credit quality include the credit ratings provided by credit rating agencies such as Standard & Poor’s and Moody’s. Credit quality and credit quality perceptions are a key component of the daily market pricing of fixed-income securities, along with maturity, inflation expectations and interest rate levels.

Credit Rating Agency (CRA) is a company that assigns credit ratings for issuers of certain types of debt obligations as well as the debt instruments themselves. In the United States, the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) permits investment banks and broker-dealers to use credit ratings from “Nationally Recognized Statistical Rating Organizations” (NRSRO) for similar purposes. As of January 2012, nine organizations were designated as NRSROs, including the “Big Three” which are Standard and Poor’s, Moody’s Investor Services and Fitch Ratings.

A Credit Rating Downgrade by a credit rating agency (such as Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s or Fitch), of reducing its credit rating for a debt issuer and/or security. This is based on the agency’s evaluation, indicating, to the agency, a decline in the issuer’s financial stability, increasing the possibility of default (defined below). A downgrade should not to be confused with a default; a debt security can be downgraded without defaulting. (And, conversely, a debt issuer can suddenly default without being downgraded first–credit ratings and credit rating agencies are not infallible.)

Credit Ratings are measurements of credit quality provided by credit rating agencies). Those provided by Standard & Poor’s typically are the most widely quoted and distributed, and range from AAA (highest quality; perceived as least likely to default) down to D (in default). Securities and issuers rated AAA to BBB are considered/perceived to be “investment-grade”; those below BBB are considered/perceived to be non-investment-grade or more speculative.

Credit Risk is the risk that the inability or perceived inability of the issuers of debt securities to make interest and principal payments will cause the value of those securities to decrease. Changes in the credit ratings of debt securities could have a similar effect.

Credit Risk Transfer Securities (CRTS) are the unsecured obligations of the GSEs (Government Sponsored Enterprises). Although cash flows are linked to prepays and defaults of the reference mortgage loans, the securities are unsecured loans, backed by general credit rather than by specified assets.

CITE: https://www.r2library.com/Resource/Title/0826102549

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DAILY UPDATE: New Highs for NASDAQ

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STOCKS UP

Trump Media & Technology Group rocketed higher at the opening bell, prompting the Nasdaq to halt trading on what has quickly become the meme stock du jour. Shares ended the day 8.76% higher.

  • 23andMe clawed 1.86% higher after introducing three new board members about a month after the entire board resigned.
  • VF Corp, parent company of clothing brands JanSport, Vans, and North Face, surged 27.01% thanks to an impeccable earnings report that revealed its turnaround plans are coming to fruition.
  • Trex, the stuff your dad built an awesome deck out of, saw sales fall last quarter but still managed to beat earnings expectations. Shares popped 6.19%.

STOCKS DOWN

  • JetBlue Airways sank 17.08% in spite of reporting a smaller loss than analysts expected. The problem is all the turbulence that lies ahead.
  • D.R. Horton is the largest homebuilder by market cap, so when it says that 2025 will be a bad year, investors should listen. Shares dropped 7.29% on the news.
  • Crocs stumbled 19.17% after beating earnings but announcing that its fiscal year would be bogged down by poor sales of its HeyDude shoe brand.
  • Stanley Black & Decker fell 8.77% after missing on both profits and sales, citing weaker consumer spending.
  • Xerox plummeted 17.41% after the company that can’t make a printer that works for longer than 3 months without needing a new ink cartridge announced weaker sales than expected.

CITE: https://tinyurl.com/2h47urt5

Here’s where the major benchmarks ended:

  • The S&P 500® index (SPX) rose 9.40(0.16%) to 5,832.92; the Dow Jones Industrial Average® ($DJI) fell 154.52 points (–0.36%) to 42,233.05; and the $COMP added points 145.55 (0.78%) to 18,712.75.
  • The 10-year Treasury note yield (TNX) finished unchanged at 4.27% after reaching nearly 4.34% earlier today.
  • The VIX fell slightly to 19.49.

CITE: https://tinyurl.com/tj8smmes

Visualize: How private equity tangled banks in a web of debt, from the Financial Times.

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MOST VALUABLE: Stocks, Economic Indicators and Markets

By Staff Reporters

SPONSOR: http://www.MarcinkoAssociates.com

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The five most valuable US companies in the S&P 500 report earnings this week, and updates on three key economic indicators are set to be released: 1. gross domestic product, 2. inflation, and 3. jobs report. Then, next week brings the election and another expected rate cut from the Federal Reserve.

CITE: https://www.r2library.com/Resource/Title/0826102549

  • Markets: All three stock indexes rose to start a week that will be filled with high-stakes data.
  • Stock spotlight: Trump Media & Technology Group gained almost 22% on Monday, following the former president and current GOP candidate’s Madison Square Garden rally. The rose means that Trump Media, which includes Truth Social, is now more valuable than Elon Musk’s X.

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RUSSELL®: Indexes

By Staff Reporters

SPONSOR: http://www.MarcinkoAssociates.com

DEFINITION

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Russell 1000® Growth Index: Measures the performance of those Russell 1000 Index companies (the 1,000 largest publicly traded U.S. companies, based on total market capitalization) with higher price-to-book ratios and higher forecasted growth values.

Russell 1000® Index: A market-capitalization weighted, large-cap index created by Frank Russell Company to measure the performance of the 1,000 largest publicly traded U.S. companies, based on total market capitalization.

Russell 1000® Value Index: Measures the performance of those Russell 1000 Index companies (the 1,000 largest publicly traded U.S. companies, based on total market capitalization) with lower price-to-book ratios and lower forecasted growth values.

Russell 2000® Growth Index: Measures the performance of those Russell 2000 Index companies (the 2,000 smallest of the 3,000 largest publicly traded U.S. companies, based on total market capitalization) with higher price-to-book ratios and higher forecasted growth values.

Russell 2000® Index: Market-capitalization weighted index created by Frank Russell Company to measure the performance of the 2,000 smallest of the 3,000 largest publicly traded U.S. companies, based on total market capitalization.

Russell 2000® Value Index: Measures the performance of those Russell 2000 Index companies (the 2,000 smallest of the 3,000 largest publicly traded U.S. companies, based on total market capitalization) with lower price-to-book ratios and lower forecasted growth values.

Russell 2500™ Growth Index: Measures the performance of those Russell 2500 Index companies (the 2,500 smallest of the 3,000 largest publicly traded U.S. companies, based on total market capitalization) with higher price-to-book ratios and higher forecasted growth values.

Russell 2500™ Index: A market-capitalization weighted index created by Frank Russell Company to measure the performance of the 2,500 smallest of the 3,000 largest publicly traded U.S. companies, based on total market capitalization.

Russell 2500™ Value Index: Measures the performance of those Russell 2500 Index companies (the 2,500 smallest of the 3,000 largest publicly traded U.S. companies, based on total market capitalization) with lower price-to-book ratios and lower forecasted growth values.

Russell 3000® Growth Index: Measures the performance of the broad growth segment of the U.S. equity universe. It includes those Russell 3000 companies with higher price-to-book ratios and higher forecasted growth values.

Russell 3000® Index: Measures the performance of the largest 3,000 U.S. companies representing approximately 98% of the investable U.S. equity market.

Russell 3000® Utilities Index: A sub-index of the Russell 3000 Index, is a capitalization weighted index of companies in industries heavily affected by government regulation, including among others, basic public service providers (electricity, gas and water), telecommunication services, and oil and gas companies.

Russell 3000® Value Index: Measures the performance of the broad value segment of the U.S. equity universe. It includes those Russell 3000 companies with lower price-to-book ratios and lower forecasted growth values.

Russell Midcap® Growth Index: Measures the performance of those Russell Midcap Index companies (the 800 smallest of the 1,000 largest publicly traded U.S. companies, based on total market capitalization) with higher price-to-book ratios and higher forecasted growth values.

Russell Midcap® Index: Measures the performance of the 800 smallest of the 1,000 largest publicly traded U.S. companies, based on total market capitalization.

Russell Midcap® Value Index: Measures the performance of those Russell Midcap Index companies (the 800 smallest of the 1,000 largest publicly traded U.S. companies, based on total market capitalization) with lower price-to-book ratios and lower forecasted growth values.

Russell Top 200® Index: Measures the performance of the 200 largest securities of the 3,000 publicly traded U.S. companies in the Russell 3000® Index, based on total market capitalization. It is not an investment product available for purchase.

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CORPORATE EARNINGS: Quarterly Reports

By Staff Reporters

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Peak earnings season: Five of the Magnificent Seven Stocks will be among the 181 companies reporting their earnings this week. Alphabet is in the Mag Seven lead-off spot on Tuesday, Microsoft and Meta step to the plate on Wednesday, and Apple and Amazon rounding out the lineup and this baseball metaphor on Thursday. These companies account for almost 25% of the S&P 500, which is up 40% over the past year and not far off its record closing number from earlier this month. But, the approaching election, it could be a volatile week in the stock markets.

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  • Markets: Stocks are currently driving the narrative on Wall Street. Last week, bonds sold off in a big way (driving yields to their highest level since July) in a sign investors are dialing back expectations of more aggressive rate cuts from the Federal Reserve.
  • Stocks nevertheless handled the bond volatility with aplomb, and with help from Tesla’s 22% one-day rise, the NASDAQ is sitting within 2% of its record high.

CITE: https://www.r2library.com/Resource/Title/0826102549

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