Understanding the Number Needed to Treat (NNT) in Medicine

A “New” Clinical Numeric

DR. DAVID EDWARD MARCINKO MBA MEd

This physician-led medical website  http://www.thennt.com/ seeks to explain to patients and physicians how well a particular treatment or medicine is likely to work based on a statistical model called the “Number Needed to Treat.”

Calculation

This is not really a new calculation, as it has been know for many years. In fact, I review and teach it in several of my undergraduate, graduate and business school courses [healthcare administration, statistics, epidemiology, infection control, community, public and population health, etc], and have been doing so for a few years now. My students are always amazed by it.

Brief Definition

The NNT is “a measurement of the impact of a medicine or therapy by estimating the number of patients that need to be treated in order to have an impact on one person.”

Detailed Definition

According to wikipedia; the number needed to treat (NNT) is an epidemiological measure used in assessing the effectiveness of a health-care intervention, typically a treatment with medication. The NNT is the number of patients who need to be treated in order to prevent one additional bad outcome (i.e. the number of patients that need to be treated for one to benefit compared with a control in a clinical trial). It is defined as the inverse of the absolute risk reduction.

The NNT was first described in 1988. The ideal NNT is 1, where everyone improves with treatment and no-one improves with control. The higher the NNT, the less effective is the treatment. Variants are sometimes used for more specialized purposes.

One example is number needed to vaccinate. NNT values are time-specific. For example, if a study ran for 5 years and it was found that the NNT was 100 during this 5 year period, in one year the NNT would have to be multiplied by 5 to correctly assume the right NNT for only the one year period (in the example the one year NNT would be 500).

Source: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Number_needed_to_treat

Assessment

For more information:

http://www.physiciansnews.com/2010/10/06/new-website-by-docs-shows-data-on-treatment-outcomes/

Conclusion

And so, your thoughts and comments on this ME-P are appreciated. Give em’ a click and tell us what you think http://www.thennt.com? Do you use the concept of NNT in your clinical medical practice; why or why not? Feel free to review our top-left column, and top-right sidebar materials, links, URLs and related websites, too. Then, subscribe to the ME-P. It is fast, free and secure.

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DAILY UPDATE: Inflation Calm but Stock Markets Down

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Quote: “It looks like the global battle against inflation has largely been won, even if price pressures persist in some countries. In most countries, inflation is now hovering close to central bank targets…The decline in inflation without a global recession is a major achievement.”—IMF (CNN Business)

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STOCKS UP

  • Spirit Airlines is back from the dead, soaring 46.67% on a Wall Street Journal report that it may end up merging with Frontier Airlines after all. Frontier Airlines rose 0.76% on the news.
  • AT&T climbed 4.65% after it beat earnings expectations in the third quarter, though it missed on revenue.
  • Starbucks fell hard late yesterday but recovered a bit this afternoon after new CEO Brian Niccol said the coffee chain is suspending its 2025 fiscal outlook. Shares rose 0.86% today.
  • Stride Technology sprinted 39.11% higher after the education technology company absolutely crushed earnings expectations.

STOCKS DOWN

  • Coca-Cola fizzled 2.07% after beating both top and bottom line expectations. The problem is that the only reason the soda giant performed well was because it raised prices, while demand for soft drinks slowed.
  • Enphase Energy plummeted 14.92% after the solar stock missed on both earnings and revenue expectations last quarter.
  • Boeing is a very familiar name in the “What’s down” section, and its latest earnings report did nothing to help. The manufacturing giant notched a $6 billion loss last quarter, and shares fell 1.76%.

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Here’s where the major benchmarks ended:

  • The SPX fell 53.78 points (–0.92%) to 5,797.42; the Dow Jones Industrial Average® ($DJI) lost 409.94 points (–0.96%) to 42,514.95; and the NASDAQ Composite ($COMP) dropped 296.47 points (–1.60%) to 18,276.65.
  • The 10-year Treasury note yield gained four basis points to 4.24%. 
  • The CBOE Volatility Index® (VIX) jumped to 19.37.

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MUSINGS: A Famous Portfolio Asset Allocation Study

Some Critics Claim Brinson, Hood, and Beebower Conclusions Wrong

By Dr. David Edward Marcinko MBA MEd CMP

http://www.MarcinkoAssociates.com

http://www.CertifiedMedicalPlanner.org

Frequently, we hear the axiom that asset allocation is the most important investment decision, explaining 93.6% of portfolio returns. The presumption has been that once the risk tolerance and time horizon have been established, investing is simply a matter of implementing a fixed mix of stocks, bonds, and cash using mutual funds selected for this purpose. This axiom is based on a famous study by Brinson, Hood, and Beebower (BHB) published in the Financial Analysts Journal in July/August 1986. It is the stuff of most modern business school and graduate students in economics and finance.

Enter the Critics

One critic claims that BHB’s conclusions and the interpretation of their conclusions are wrong, stating that because of several methodological problems, BHB needed to make certain assumptions for their analysis to go forward. They assumed that the average asset-class weights for the 10-year period studied are the same as the actual normal policy weights; that investments in foreign stocks, real estate, private placements, and venture capital can be proxied by a mix of stocks, bonds, and cash; and that the benchmarks for stocks, bonds, and cash against which fund performance was measured are appropriate. The author believes that each of these assumptions can lead to a faulty measurement of success or failure at market timing and stock selection.

The Jahnke Study

William Jahnke claims that BHB erred in their focus on explaining the variation of quarterly portfolio returns rather than portfolio returns over the 10-year period studied. According to the study, asset allocation policy explains only a small fraction of the range of 10-year portfolio returns earned by the pension funds reported in the study. The author concluded that this discrepancy is caused by the effect of compounding returns. He adds that BHB were wrong to use variance of quarterly returns rather than the standard deviation. Use of standard deviation would reduce the often cited 93.6% to about 79%. Moreover, BHB did not consider the cost of investing, such as operating expenses, management fees, brokerage commissions, and other trading costs, which are more significant for individual investors than for the pension plans studied. Jahnke claims that excessive costs can reduce wealth accumulation by 50%.

Note: (“The Asset Allocation Hoax,” William W. Jahnke, Journal of Financial Planning, February 1997, Institute of Certified Financial Planners [303] 759-4900).

Assessment

Finally, the author takes issue with establishing long-term fixed asset class weights. Asset allocation should be a dynamic process. Higher equity return expectations should in turn produce larger equity allocations, other things being equal.

Conclusion

Are doctors different than the average investor noted in this essay?

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What If You Could Start From Scratch – Doctor?

How would you restart your career in medicine?

[By Dr. David Edward Marcinko MBA MEd CMP™]

We’ve known this physician-client-friend for 10 years, and while he didn’t tell us what he wanted to discuss, we knew it was important.

After exchanging pleasantries, he shocked me: He said he’s totally unfulfilled in his current job and wants to do something new.

We were floored because he is an outstanding doctor – at the top of his game. From the outside looking in, he appears to be “living the dream”.

After that bombshell, we asked him the question we couldn’t get out of our mind: “Are you afraid?”

“Yes,” he said; “Afraid and relieved.”

His relief stemmed from the fact that he is going to shed the tremendous demands of being a doctor at the highest levels. He was afraid because he didn’t know what was next.

We thought afterward, “What a courageous and totally refreshing move.”

ME-P Doctors, Advisors and Consultants

A Fantasy Reboot

That dialogue triggered a larger internal conversation within; and with others.

  • What would you do if you could start from scratch?
  • How would you proceed if you could just wipe the slate clean and restart your career in medicine?

For those quietly pondering a similar path, three great opportunities seem crystal clear.

First, we would create our own practice playbook. Discard the ready-made choices served up by your old practice. For the independent physician today, there’s almost infinite variety. The pleasure in creating your own approach is that there are so many options. Your patients will appreciate the greater choice and flexibility, too.

Second, we would whole-heartedly embrace technology; but not necessarily EHRs at this time. Rather, build your own HIT framework to complement your medical practice. Innovate across your entire operations – everything from medical records, to online appointment access, secure FAX machines, to patient portals and laboratory results reporting to your own mobile phone app. Freeing yourself from your current archaic technology will be life altering by itself.

5 new rules for how doctors interact with health care IT

Third, cull the difficult people from your life. These are the naysayers who weigh you down – superiors, colleagues or patients. Negativity is corrosive, and it always lingers. It also distracts you from giving others your best. While you’re at it, cull the skills you mastered to survive in your career so you can focus on those that really matter.

Non-Traditional Doctors

Case Model

So, we wanted to share one of the all-time greatest reboots we know because it shows what is possible if you believe in yourself.

A decade ago, one of our osteopathic physician clients delivered some bad news. She was quitting her job as a medical associate, to transition into her own direct pay concierge practice.

At the time, this was unheard of: No one walked away from a potential medical practice partnership to become a solo physician. But, Sue had a different vision. She wasn’t fulfilled and she knew it. With the support of her husband, she decided there was a better way. So she started from scratch.

How did it work out?

Unbelievably well – but NOT overnight!

With our meager assistance, Sue’s been cash flow positive for the last 7 years, and now earns more money than before, with less stress; and she is the captain of her ship. A few colleagues who have worked with her have even gone on to achieve comparable success. She’s become a role model to others too, and she remains one our heroes.

The Decision

Starting from scratch may or may not translate into more money, but it often means this: More happiness in your life. Sue’s decision, just like our friend who bared his soul to us over coffee, were both made for the right reasons.

We wish our friend well on his journey, confident knowing that a happy ending is just over the horizon for him, too.

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Assessment

Send us your own success/failure story, so we might learn from you. Would you even stay in medicine or transition/begin another career; anew?

Conclusion

Your thoughts and comments on this ME-P are appreciated. Feel free to review our top-left column, and top-right sidebar materials, links, URLs and related websites, too. Then, subscribe to the ME-P. It is fast, free and secure.

Speaker: If you need a moderator or speaker for an upcoming event, Dr. David E. Marcinko; MBA – Publisher-in-Chief of the Medical Executive-Post – is available for seminar or speaking engagements. Contact: MarcinkoAdvisors@msn.com

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EFFECTS: Halo and Hero Placebo

COGNITIVE BIASES

By Staff Reporters

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The following are two common psychological biases.  Some biases are learned while others are genetically determined (and often socially reinforced).  They are prevalent in most areas in life.

Halo Effect

The halo effect is the cognitive bias where the perception of one positive trait influences the perception of other traits. It’s like assuming a good-looking person is also kind and smart. This mental shortcut simplifies our judgments but often leads to inaccurate assessments.

Marketers and politicians love the halo effect, using it to create a positive overall impression.

To counteract the halo effect, consciously separate individual traits and evaluate them independently. Remember: not everything that shines is gold.

Hero Placebo Effect

The hero placebo effect is the phenomenon where believing in the efficacy of a hero or leader enhances their perceived effectiveness. It’s like thinking a charismatic coach makes the team better just by being there. This belief can boost morale and performance, creating a self-fulfilling prophecy.

However, it can also lead to overestimating the hero’s actual impact. So, while it’s great to have inspiring leaders, remember: true success comes from collective effort, not just the aura of a single hero.

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DAILY UPDATE: 2025 IRS Tax Brackets as Stock Markets Barely Budge

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The IRS has announced the annual inflation adjustments for the year 2025, including tax rate schedules, tax tables and cost-of-living adjustments. These are the official numbers for the tax year 2025—that tax year begins January 1, 2025. These are not the numbers that you’ll use to prepare your 2024 tax returns in 2025 (you’ll find those official 2024 tax numbers here). These are the numbers that you’ll use to prepare your 2025 tax returns in 2026.

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STOCKS UP

  • Philip Morris International was smoking hot today, rising 10.47% to a record high thanks to strong demand for its Zyn nicotine pouches.
  • Americans just love a pickup truck: General Motors revved 9.85% higher on an impressive beat-and-raise earnings report.
  • Trump Media & Technology Group rose 9.87% to its highest level since July as the “Trump trade” wagering on the former president to regain the White House picks up steam.
  • Quest Diagnostics isn’t just a sad, windowless building where you get your blood drawn—it’s also been a pretty profitable investment. Shares rose 6.88% on strong earnings and revenue growth.

STOCKS DOWN

  • Stop us if you’ve heard this one before: Target is cutting the price of 2,000 products ahead of the holiday season. Shares sank 1.13% as shareholders digest what appears to be a desperate move to boost sales.
  • Verizon Communications dropped 5.03% after missing on both revenue and earnings estimates. But the real problem was slowing customer growth and phone sales.
  • Defense contractors were in the earnings spotlight today, and none of them did well. GE Aerospace tumbled 9.07% despite beating analyst forecasts and Lockheed Martin fell 6.12% after sales missed estimates.
  • Genuine Parts, better known as NAPA Auto Parts, plummeted 20.96% after earnings missed estimates and the company announced lower fiscal year forecasts.

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Here’s where the major benchmarks ended:

  • The SPX fell 2.78 points (–0.05%) to 5,851.20; the Dow Jones Industrial Average® ($DJI) lost 6.71 points (–0.02%) to 42,924.89; and the $COMP gained 33.12 points (0.18%) to 18,573.13.
  • The 10-year Treasury note yield (TNX) added two basis points to 4.2%.
  • The CBOE Volatility Index® (VIX) fell to 18.15, down from above 20 a week ago.

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ANCHORING: Initial Mental Brain Trickery

COGNITIVE BIASES

By Staff Reporters

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According to colleague Dan Ariely PhD, anchoring is the mental trick your brain plays when it latches onto the first piece of information it gets, no matter how irrelevant. You might know this as ‘ first impressions ’ – when someone relies on their own first idea of a person or situation.

Imagine you’re buying a car, and the salesperson starts with a high price. That number sticks in your mind and influences all your subsequent negotiations. Anchoring can skew our decisions and perceptions, making us think the first offer is more important than it is. Or, subsequent offers lower than they really are.

So, the next time you’re haggling or making a big decision, be aware of that initial anchor dragging you down.

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On the Revival of Individual House Call Doctors

Re-Thinking a Popular Practice from the Past

By Dr. David Edward Marcinko; MBA, MEd, CMP™

[Publisher-in-Chief]

More personal than a corporate home care medical business model, most people view house calls as a popular practice from the past.

Although less than 5% of the nation’s doctors regularly make house calls today, the medical house call industry is swiftly picking up momentum once again. It is a move that is greatly benefiting physicians and patients alike.

Why House Calls?

It’s because we live in a society that has become technology focused. While this emergence has benefited many in terms of medical advancements, there are a growing number of patients who are uncomfortable with next-generation medical practices. These people, particularly the rapidly aging elders of the nation, want to be cared for in a friendly, nurturing, and convenient way. As people age and fall ill, it becomes increasingly difficult to leave the home for office visits. Not to mention, there are many handicapped patients as well who have to arrange for wheelchair vans or ambulances just to visit the doctor. The COVID pandemic and tele-health are illustrative.

Meeting a Niche Market Need

Thanks to the desire of physicians seeking to open their own medical house call practices, these patient needs are slowly being met. Some of these physicians are strictly open for house call visits only and have no physical office. They commonly take appointment requests via phone calls and emails with the overall goal to combine the service of an old-time, small town doctor with the latest technology designed to meet people’s emotional, and financial, needs. Patients are also able to save a considerable amount of time by not having to leave the house to go to the doctor’s office, and not having to fill prescriptions. After all, many medical house call physicians travel along with certain medications that can be dispensed on location. Narcotics, however, will likely still need to be filled with a paper or e-prescription.

While highly convenient for patients who wish to receive medical house call services, the reviving industry is fitting for physicians. In recent years, Medicare has increased its level or reimbursements for physicians who travel to patients. Just in the past few years alone, Medicare has been billed approximately $1.75 million annually for house calls. 

Enter the DNPs and NPs

Even nurse practitioners [NPs] and Doctors of Nursing Practice [DNPs] who make a small number of house calls are typically unaware that they can maximize profit potential with medical house calls. Some NPs have even offset operating expenses by offering house calls to make their office based practice more appealing to their patients.

Link: Front Matter BoMP – 3

Technology Enabled

Also, significant advances in technology have enabled popular medical equipment to be smaller and portable. Physicians are able to perform standard procedures, such as skin biopsies and blood draws while outside the office. They are also able to easily access patient medical records through usage of a laptop, as well as resources such as the Physicians’ Desk Reference [PDS] through usage of a hand-held personal digital assistant or smart cell phone.

Assessment

For example, this firm educates patients and supports physicians who are ready to make a transition from office-based positions to medical house call practices. There are no royalty or membership fees, and this is not a franchise. It helps transition to a reportedly more pleasing, profitable way to practice medicine today.

LINK: https://www.resurgia.com

Conclusion

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On Investment Management and Physician PRUDENCE

ON “PRUDENCE” IN FINANCE AND INVESTMENT MANAGEMENT

TERMS & DEFINITIONS FOR PHYSICIANS

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PRUDENT BUYER: The efficient purchaser of market balance between value and cost.

PRUDENT MAN RULE: An 1830 court case stating that a person in a fiduciary capacity (a trustee, executor, custodian, etc) must conduct him/herself faithfully and exercise sound judgment when investing monies under care. “He is to observe how men of prudence, discretion and intelligence manage their own affairs, not in regard to speculation, but in regard to the permanent distribution of their funds, considering the probable income as well as the probable safety of the capital to be invested.” Allows for mutual funds and variable annuities.

PRUDENT INVESTOR RULE: A fiduciary is required to conduct him/herself faithfully and exercise sound judgment when investing monies and take measured and reasonable investment risks in return for potential future rewards. Allows for mutual funds, stocks, bonds, variable annuities asset allocation & Modern Portfolio Theory.

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DAILY UPDATE: Stock Markets Fall

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Here’s where the major stock market benchmarks ended:

  • The S&P 500® index (SPX) fell10.69points (–0.18%) to 5,853.98; the Dow Jones Industrial Average® ($DJI) lost 344.31 points (–0.80%) to 42,931.60; and the NASDAQ Composite® ($COMP) rose 50.45 points (0.27%) to 18,540.01.
  • The 10-year Treasury note yield (TNX) climbed 11 basis points to 4.18%, outpacing a 7 basis-point rise for the 2-year Treasury note yield.
  • The CBOE Volatility Index®(VIX) climbed to 18.6 but remains below recent peaks.

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STOCKS UP

  • Spirit Airlines soared like one of its bankrupt planes, rising 53.06% thanks to an extension for refinancing its debt.
  • Boeing popped 3.11% on the news that it has reached a tentative deal with the machinists union that has been on strike for over a month now. With Boeing’s earnings announcement coming Wednesday, shareholders are definitely breathing a sigh of relief.
  • Activist investor Starboard Value has taken a sizable stake in Tylenol-maker Kenvue, which was spun off of Johnson & Johnson just last year. Kenvue shares rose 5.52% on the news.
  • Warby Parker climbed 9.84% thanks to an upgrade from Goldman Sachs analysts, who like the company’s strong margin growth and improved operational efficiency.

CITE: https://tinyurl.com/2h47urt5

STOCKS DOWN

  • Cigna will once again attempt to acquire fellow health insurer Humana. Shareholders on both sides didn’t like the idea: Shares of Cigna sank 4.69%, and Humana fell 2.51%.
  • UPS dropped 3.38% on a downgrade from Barclays analysts citing pressures on the company’s margins, including higher competition and weaker demand. Management will have a chance to respond when earnings drop on Thursday.
  • Southwest Airlines fell 1.74% after Bloomberg reported that the beleaguered airline wants to call a truce with activist investor Elliott Investment Management.

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Visualize: How private equity tangled banks in a web of debt, from the Financial Times.

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What is “Sentimental” Stock Market Analysis?

What it is – How it works

By http://www.MarcinkoAssociates.com

There is no shortage of analysis for anyone interested in investing. A search for the term “stock market analysis” turned up 16 million hits on Google and well over 200,000 hits each on Bing, and Yahoo.

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A Sentiment Analysis Approach to Predicting Stock Returns | by Tom Yuz |  Medium

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The majority of stock market analysis can be lumped into three broad groups: fundamental, technical, and sentimental. Here’s a close look at SA.

Sentimental Analysis

Sentimental analysis attempts to measure the market in terms of the attitudes of investors. Sentimental analysis starts from the assumption that the majority of investors are wrong. In other words, that the stock market has the potential to disappoint when “masses of investors” believe prices are headed in a particular direction.

Sentiment analysts are often referred to as contrarians who look to invest against the majority view of the market.

For example, if the majority of professional market watchers expect a stock price to trend higher, sentiment analysts may look for prices to disappoint the majority and trend lower.

Which approach is best?

There is no clear answer to that question.

But it’s important to remember three things:

  • Past performance does not guarantee future results, actual results will vary, and the best approach may be to create a portfolio based on your time horizon, risk tolerance, and goals.
  • Keep in mind that the return and principal value of stock prices will fluctuate as market conditions change.
  • And shares, when sold, may be worth more or less than their original cost.

Conclusion

Your thoughts and comments on this ME-P are appreciated. Feel free to review our top-left column, and top-right sidebar materials, links, URLs and related websites, too. Then, subscribe to the ME-P. It is fast, free and secure.

Speaker: If you need a moderator or speaker for an upcoming event, Dr. David E. Marcinko; MBA – Publisher-in-Chief of the Medical Executive-Post – is available for seminar or speaking engagements.

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“Meaningful” Endowment Effect

By Staff Reporters

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The Meaningful Endowment Effect is the tendency to value things more highly when they’re personally meaningful. It’s why a homemade gift can feel priceless while a store-bought one feels ordinary. Or, a coveted sports car, etc.

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JAGUAR: https://medicalexecutivepost.com/2014/01/08/the-jaguar-touring-sedan-one-of-the-finest-luxury-cars-built-yesterday/

Our brains attach emotional significance to objects, inflating their value. This effect explains why we hang onto mementos and keepsakes, even if they’re not objectively valuable.

So, next time you’re de-cluttering, remember: it’s not just stuff, it’s meaningful stuff.

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BUDGETING: Essential Insights for Physicians

DOCTORS ARE DIFFERENT

BY: DR. DAVID EDWARD MARCINKO MBA MEd CMP™

http://www.CertifiedMedicalPlanner.org

http://www.MarcinkoAssociates.com

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 Although some might view a budget as unnecessarily restrictive, sticking to a spending plan can be a useful tool in enhancing the wealth of a medical practice. So, I will emphasize keys to smart budgeting and how to track spending and savings in these tough economic times.

   There is an aphorism that suggests, “Money cannot buy happiness.” Well, this may be true enough but there is also a corollary that states, “Having a little sure reduces the unhappiness.”

   Unfortunately, today there is more than a little financial unhappiness in all medical specialties. The challenges range from the commoditization of medicine, aging demographics, Medicare reimbursement cutbacks and increased competition to floundering equity markets, the home mortgage crisis, the squeeze on credit and declines in the value of a practice. Few doctors seem immune to this “perfect storm” of economic woes.

   Far too many physicians are hurting and it is not limited to above-average earning professionals. However, one can strive to reduce the pain by following some basic budgeting principles. By adhering to these principles, physicians can eliminate the “too many days at the end of the month” syndrome and instead develop a foundation for building real wealth and security, even in difficult economic climates like we face today.

   There are three major budget types. A flexible budget is an expenditure cap that adjusts for changes in the volume of expense items. A fixed budget does not. Advancing to the next level of rigor, a zero-based budget starts with essential expenses and adds items until the money is gone. Regardless of type, budgets can be extremely effective if one uses them at home or the office in order to spot money troubles before they develop.

   For the purpose of wealth building, doctors may think of this budget as a quantitative expression of an action plan. It is an integral part of the overall cost-control process for the individual, his or her family unit or one’s medical practice.

Doctor Difference: https://marcinkoassociates.com/doctors-unique/

How To Prepare A Personal Cash Flow Budget

   Preparing a net income statement (lifestyle cash flow budget) is often difficult because many doctors perceive it as punitive. Most doctors do not live a disciplined spending lifestyle and they view a budget as a compromise to it. However, a cash flow budget is designed to provide comfort when there is surplus income that can be diverted for other future needs. For example, if you treat retirement savings as just another periodic bill, you are more likely to save for it.

   You may construct a personal cash budget by recording each cash receipt and cash disbursement on a spreadsheet. Only the date, amount and a brief description of the transaction are necessary. The cash budget is a simple tool that even doctors who lack accounting acumen can use. Since it is possible to track the cash-in and cash-out in the same format used for a standard check register, most doctors find that the process takes very little time. Such a budget will provide a helpful look at how well you are staying within available resources for a given period.

   We then continue with an analysis of your operating checkbook and a review of various source documents such as one’s tax return, credit card statements, pay stubs and insurance policies. A typical statement will show all cash transactions that occur within one year. It is helpful to establish a monthly equivalent to all items of income and expense. For the purposes of getting started, note items of income and expense by the frequency you are accustomed to receiving or spending them.

What You Should Know About The ‘Action Plan’ Cash Budget

   For a medical office, the first operations budget item might be salary for the doctor and staff. Operating assets and other big ticket items come next. Some of our doctors/clients review their office P&L statements monthly, line by line, in an effort to reduce expenses. Then they add back those discretionary business expenses they have some control over.

   Now, do you still run out of money before the end of the month? If so, you had better cut back on entertainment, eating dinner out or that fancy, new but unproven piece of medical equipment. This sounds draconian until you remind yourself that your choice is either: live frugally later or live a simpler lifestyle now and invest the difference.

   As a young doctor, it may be a difficult trade-off. By mid-life, however, you are staring retirement in the face. That is why the action plan depends on your actions concerning monetary scarcity, a plan that one can implement and measure using simple benchmarks or budgeting ratios. By using these statistics, perhaps on an annual basis, the doctor can spot problems, correct them and continue planning actively toward stated goals like building long-term wealth.

Useful Calculations To Assess Your Budgeting Success

   In the past, generic budgeting ratios would emphasize not spending more than 15 to 20 percent of your net salary on food or 8 percent on medical care. Now these estimates have given way to more rigorous numbers. Personal budget ratios, much like medical practice financial ratios, represent comparable benchmarks for parameters such as debt, income growth and net worth. Although these ratios are still broad, the following represent some useful personal budgeting ratios for physicians.

   • Basic liquidity ratio = liquid assets / average monthly expenses. Cash-on-hand should approach 12 to 24 months or more in the case of a doctor employed by a financially insecure HMO or fragile medical group practice. Yes, chances are you have heard of the standard notion of setting enough cash aside to cover three months in a rainy day scenario. However, we have decried this older laymen standard for many years in our textbooks, white papers and speaking engagements as being wholly insufficient for the competitively unstable environment of modern healthcare.

   • Debt to assets ratio = total debt / total assets. This percentage is high initially but should decrease with age as the doctor approaches a debt-free existence

   • Debt to gross income ratio = annual debt repayments / annual gross income. This represents the adequacy of current income for existing debt repayments. Doctors should try to keep this below 20 to 25 percent.

   • Debt service ratio = annual debt repayment / annual take-home pay. Physicians should aim to keep this ratio below 25 to 30 percent or face difficulty paying down debt.

   • Investment assets to net worth ratio = investment assets / net worth. This budget ratio should increase over time as retirement approaches.

   • Savings to income ratio = savings / annual income. This ratio should also increase over time as one retires major obligations like medical school debt, a practice loan or a home mortgage.

   • Real growth ratio = (income this year – income last year) / (income last year – inflation rate). This budget ratio should grow faster than the core rate of inflation.

   • Growth of net worth ratio = (net worth this year – net worth last year) / net worth last year – inflation rate). Again, this budgeting ratio should stay ahead of inflation.

   In other words, these ratios will help answer the question: “How am I doing?”

Pearls For Sticking To A Budget

   Far from the burden that most doctors consider it to be, budgeting in one form or another is probably one of the greatest tools for building wealth. However, it is also one of the greatest weaknesses among physicians who tend to live a certain lifestyle.

   In fact, we have found that less than one in 10 medical professionals have a personal budget. Fear, or a lack of knowledge, is a major cause of procrastination. Fortunately, the following guidelines assist in reversing this microeconomic disaster.

   1. Set reasonable goals and estimate annual income. Do not keep large amounts of cash at home or office. Deposit it in an FDIC insured money-market account for safety. Do not deposit it in a money market mutual fund with net asset value (NAV) that may “break the buck” and fall below the one-dollar level. Track actual bills and expenses.

   2. Do not pay bills early, do not have more taxes withheld from your salary than needed and develop spending estimates to pay fixed expenses first. Fixed expenses are usually contractual and usually include housing, utilities, food, Social Security, medical, debt repayments, homeowner’s or renter’s insurance, auto, life and disability insurance, etc. Reduce fixed expenses when possible. Ultimately, all expenses get paid and become variable in the long run.

   3. Make it a priority to reduce variable expenses. Variable expenses are not contractual and may include clothing, education, recreational, travel, vacation, gas, cable TV, entertainment, gifts, furnishings, savings, investments, etc. Trim variable expenses by 5 to 20 percent.

   4. Use “carve-outs or “set-asides” for big ticket items and differentiate true wants from frivolous needs.

   5. Calculate both income and expenses as a percentage of your total budget. Determine if there is a better way to allocate resources. Review the budget on a monthly basis to notice any variance. Determine if the variance was avoidable, unavoidable or a result of inaccurate assumptions. Take corrective action as needed.

   6. Know the difference between saving and investing. Savers tend to be risk adverse while investors understand risk and take steps to mitigate it. Watch mutual fund commissions and investment advisory fees, which cut into return-rates. Keep investments simple and diversified (stocks, bonds, cash, index, no-load mutual and exchange traded funds, etc.).

Second Opinion: https://marcinkoassociates.com/opinions-second/

How To Budget In The Midst Of A Crisis

   Sooner or later, despite the best of budgeting intentions, something will go awry. A doctor will be terminated or may be the victim of a reduction-in-force (RIF) because of cost containment initiatives.4 A medical practice partnership may dissolve or a local hospital or surgery center may close, hurting your practice and livelihood. Someone may file a malpractice lawsuit against you, a working spouse may be laid off or you may get divorced. Regardless of the cause, budgeting crisis management encompasses two different perspectives: awareness and execution.

   First, if you become aware that you may lose your job, the following proactive steps will be helpful to your budget and overall financial condition.

   • Decrease retirement contributions to the required minimum for company/practice match.
   • Place retirement contribution differences in an after-tax emergency fund.
   • Eliminate unnecessary payroll deductions and deposit the difference to cash.
   • Replace group term life insurance with personal term or universal life insurance.
   • Take your old group term life insurance policy with you if possible.
   • Establish a home equity line of credit to verify employment.
   • Borrow against your pension plan only as a last resort.

   If you have lost your job or your salary has been depressed, negotiate your departure and get an attorney if you believe you lost your position through breach of contract or discrimination. Then execute the following steps to recalculate your budget and boost your wealth rebuilding activities.

   • Prioritize fixed monthly bills in the following order: rent or mortgage; car payments; utility bills; minimum credit card payments; and restructured long-term debt.

   • Consider liquidating assets to pay off debts in this order: emergency fund, checking accounts, investment accounts or assets held in your children’s names.

   • Review insurance coverage and increase deductibles on homeowner’s and automobile insurance for needed cash.

   • Then sell appreciated stocks or mutual funds; personal valuables such as furnishings, jewelry and real estate; and finally, assets not in pension or annuities if necessary.

   • Keep or rollover any lump sum pension or savings plan distribution directly to a similar savings plan at your new employer, if possible, when you get rehired.

   • Apply for unemployment insurance.

   • Review your medical insurance and COBRA coverage after a “qualifying event” such as job loss, firing or even after quitting. It is a bit expensive due to a 2 percent administrative fee surcharge but this may be well worth it for those with preexisting conditions or who are otherwise difficult to insure. One may continue COBRA for up to 18 months.

   • Consider a high deductible Health Savings Account (HSA), which allows tax-deferred dollars like a medical IRA, for a variety of costs not normally covered under traditional heath insurance plans. Self-employed doctors deduct both the cost of the premiums and the amount contributed to the HSA. Unused funds roll over until the age of 59½, when one can use the money as a supplemental retirement benefit.

   • Eliminate unnecessary variable, charitable and/or discretionary expenses, and become very frugal.

Final Notes

   The behavioral psychologist, Gene Schmuckler, PhD, MBA, sometimes asks exasperated doctors to recall the story of the old man who spent a day watching his physician son treating HMO patients in the office. The doctor had been working at his usual feverish pace all morning. Although he was working hard, he bitterly complained to his dad that he was not making as much money as he used to make. Finally, the old man interrupted him and said, “Son, why don’t you just treat the sick patients?” The doctor-son looked at his father with an annoyed expression and responded, “Dad, can’t you see, I do not have time to treat just the sick ones.”

   Always remember to add a bit of emotional sanity into your budgeting and economic endeavors.

   Regardless of one’s age or lifestyle, the insightful doctor realizes that it is never too late to take control of a lost financial destiny through prudent wealth building activities. Personal and practice budgeting is always a good way to start the journey.

Coaching: https://marcinkoassociates.com/process-what-we-do/

NOTE: Dr. Marcinko is a former Certified Financial Planner and current Certified Medical Planner™. He has been a medical management advisor for more than a decade. He is the CEO of http://www.MarcinkoAssociates.com

The authors acknowledge the assistance of Mackenzie H. Marcinko PhD in the preparation of this article.

References

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NINE: Psychological Reasons We Do Dumb Things with Money [$$$$]

Yep – Even the Smart Folks!

By Lon Jefferies MBA CMP® CFP®

Dr. David Edward Marcinko MBA MEd CMP®

Lon Jeffries

In the Business Insider, Mandi Woodruff describes nine mental blocks that cause smart people to do dumb things. Review the list and itemize the factors that have negatively impacted your finances.

The Factors

  • Anchoring happens when we place too much emphasis on the first piece of information we receive regarding a given subject. For instance, when shopping for a wedding ring a salesman might tell us to spend three months’ salary. After hearing this, we may feel like we are doing something wrong if we stray from this advice, even though the guideline provided may cause us to spend more than we can afford.
  • Myopia (or nearsightedness) makes it hard for us to imagine what our lives might be like in the future. For example, because we are young, healthy, and in our prime earning years now, it may be hard for us to picture what life will be like when our health depletes and we know longer have the earnings necessary to support our standard of living. This short-sightedness makes it hard to save adequately when we are young, when saving does the most good.
  • Gambler’s fallacy occurs when we subconsciously believe we can use past events to predict the future. It is common for the hottest sector during one calendar year to attract the most investors the following year. Of course, just because an investment did well last year doesn’t mean it will continue to do well this year. In fact, it is more likely to lag the market.
  • Avoidance is simply procrastination. Even though you may only have the opportunity to adjust your health care plan through your employer once per year, researching alternative health plans is too much work and too boring for us to get around to it. Consequently, we stick with a plan that may not be best for us.
  • Confirmation bias causes us to place more emphasis on information that supports the opinion we already have. Consequently, we tend to ignore or downplay opinions that don’t mirror our own, leading us to make uninformed decisions.

NOTE: An interesting example of the confirmation bias is the case of David Rosenberg, who is one of the most well-known perpetual bears on Wall Street. In October, Mr. Rosenberg’s analysis forced him to warm to the current investment environment. His fans and followers, rather than appreciating his research and ability to adjust to new information, criticized him for changing his opinion.

As it turned out Mr. Rosenberg had fans not because of his expert analysis, but because he added intellectual heft to his followers pessimism and quasi-political desire for the system to collapse. Their view was that things were in permanent decline and his analysis, charts, and voice added respectability to their pre-existing bias. Mr. Rosenberg has now lost his fan base not because he was wrong for the last four years, but because he changed his mind.

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  • Loss aversion affected many investors during the crash of 2008. During the crash, many people decided they couldn’t afford to lose more and sold their investments. Of course, this caused the investors to sell at market troughs and miss the quick, dramatic recovery.
  • Overconfident investing happens when we believe we can out-smart other investors via market timing or through quick, frequent trading. Data convincingly shows that people who trade most often underperform the market by a significant margin over time.
  • Mental accounting takes place when we assign different values to money depending on where we get it from. For instance, even though we may have an aggressive saving goal for the year, it is likely easier for us to save money that we worked for than money that was given to us as a gift.
  • Herd mentality makes it very hard for humans to not take action when everyone around us does. For example, we may hear stories of people making significant profits buying, fixing up, and flipping homes and have the desire to get in on the action, even though we have no experience in real estate.

Assessment

The good news is that being aware of these tendencies can help us avoid mistakes. We’ll never be perfect, but avoiding detrimental decisions based on mental prejudices can give us an advantage in our financial and retirement planning efforts.

Conclusion

Your thoughts and comments on this ME-P are appreciated. Feel free to review our top-left column, and top-right sidebar materials, links, URLs and related websites, too. Then, subscribe to the ME-P. It is fast, free and secure.

Speaker: If you need a moderator or speaker for an upcoming event, Dr. David E. Marcinko; MBA – Publisher-in-Chief of the Medical Executive-Post – is available for seminar or speaking engagements. Contact: MarcinkoAdvisors@msn.com

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Risk Management, Liability Insurance, and Asset Protection Strategies for Doctors and Advisors: Best Practices from Leading Consultants and Certified Medical Planners™8Comprehensive Financial Planning Strategies for Doctors and Advisors: Best Practices from Leading Consultants and Certified Medical Planners™

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PODCAST: What is SMART BETA?

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REALLY SMART -OR- NOT REALLY

BY: DR. DAVID EDWARD MARCINKO MBA MEd CMP®

SPONSOR: http://www.MarcinkoAssociates.com

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SPONSOR: http://www.CertifiedMedicalPlanner.org

Smart beta investment portfolios offer the benefits of passive strategies combined with some of the advantages of active ones, placing it at the intersection of efficient-market hypothesis and factor investing.

Offering a blend of active and passive styles of management, a smart beta portfolio is low cost due to the systematic nature of its core philosophy – achieving efficiency by way of tracking an underlying index (e.g., MSCI World Ex US). Combining with optimization techniques traditionally used by active managers, the strategy aims at risk/return potentials that are more attractive than a plain vanilla active or passive product.

CITATION: https://www.r2library.com/Resource/Title/0826102549

Originally theorized by Harry Markowitz in his work on Modern Portfolio Theory (MPT), smart beta is a response to a question that forms the basis of MPT – how to best construct the optimally diversified portfolio. Smart beta answers this by allowing a portfolio to expand on the efficient frontier (post-cost) of active and passive. As a typical investor owns both the active and index fund, most would benefit from adding smart beta exposure to their portfolio in addition to their existing allocations.

Financial beta: https://medicalexecutivepost.com/2021/05/12/so-what-is-financial-beta-granularly/

Assessment: The smart beta approach is an arguably perfect intersection between traditional value investing and the efficient market hypothesis. But, is it worth the cost?

More: https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2018-06-08/smart-beta-performance-isn-t-worth-the-cost

ALPHA versus BETA Podcast: https://youtu.be/dP_23vKJ3HQ

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BIAS: The Gambler’s Fallacy

By Staff Reporters

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The Gambler’s Fallacy occurs when we subconsciously believe we can use past events to predict the future. It is also called the Monte Carlo Fallacy, after the Casino de Monte-Carlo in Monaco where it was observed in 1913

For example, it is common for the hottest sector during one calendar year to attract the most investors the following year.

Of course, just because an investment did well last year doesn’t mean it will continue to do well this year. In fact, it is more likely to lag the market.

Related: https://medicalexecutivepost.com/2024/06/17/what-physician-investors-need-to-know-about-monte-carlo-simulation/

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DAILY UPDATE: Stock Markets, Netflix and Medicare Part C as CVS Closes Stores

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Markets: The S&P 500 hit an all-time high yesterday, closing out its sixth consecutive week of gains for its longest streak of 2024. The Dow and NASDAQ also closed in the green.

CITE: https://www.r2library.com/Resource

The largest Medicare Advantage insurers have prioritized profits over patient care by increasing the use of prior authorization in recent years to frequently deny post-acute care services to older adults, according to a report published Oct. 17th by the Senate Permanent Subcommittee on Investigations.

CITE: https://tinyurl.com/2h47urt5

The drugstore chain CVS is in the process of shuttering “roughly 300” locations across the country in 2024, a spokesperson confirmed to Good Housekeeping. That includes the dozens of pharmacies in Target stores.

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Stock spotlight: Netflix stock jumped on Friday, a day after its earnings report beat expectations.

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PODCAST: Role of the “Entrepreneur” in Society

ACCORDING TO AUSTRIAN ECONOMISTS

BY PER BYLUND

Colleague Peter R. Quinones and Per Bylund return to the show to talk about the role of the entrepreneur not only in society, but according to the Austrian School of Economics. Medical perspectives are implied.

PODCAST: https://freemanbeyondthewall.libsyn.com/episode-312

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DAILY UPDATE: CVS Health and AI Healthcare Chatbots as Stocks Reach New Highs

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Essays, Opinions and Curated News in Health Economics, Investing, Business, Management and Financial Planning for Physician Entrepreneurs and their Savvy Advisors and Consultants

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SPONSORED BY: Marcinko & Associates, Inc.

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CVS Health may be breaking up…with itself. The board of directors at CVS Health—the parent company of CVS Pharmacy, pharmacy benefit manager CVS Caremark, and insurance unit Aetna—are working with a group of bankers to review the company’s strategy, which according to Reuters, may lead to a split between its pharmacy division and Aetna.

CITE: https://www.r2library.com/Resource

Stocks Up

  • Apple climbed 1.23% on a Bloomberg report that iPhone 16 demand has been shockingly strong in China.
  • Verizon Communications will purchase $1 billion worth of US Cellular’s wireless spectrum licenses. Verizon rose just 0.34%—but it’s a huge deal for US Cellular, which popped 7.22%, and Telephone and Data Systems, which owns 82% of US Cellular, and soared 15.40%.
  • Intuitive Surgical rose to a new all-time high, climbing 10.01% on strong earnings powered by sales of its da Vinci device.
  • Lamb Weston, the company behind the french fries you overindulge in every time you go out to dinner, is being pushed by activist investor Jana Partners toward exploring a sale. Shareholders rejoiced, and the stock rose 10.17%.

Stocks Down

CVS Health sank 5.23% on the news that CEO Karen Lynch will be replaced by David Joyner after three years at the helm of the struggling pharmacy/retailer. Joyner ran the company’s pharmacy service business for the last two years.

  • WD-40 seems like the staple of all consumer staples, but the company missed on both revenue and earnings estimates last quarter. Shares fell 4.79% on the news.
  • American Express dropped 3.15% after the credit card company reported a rare miss today, beating bottom-line estimates but missing revenue forecasts last quarter.
  • MGP Ingredients makes all the booze you drink under different brand names, but people aren’t drinking enough. The beverage maker issued preliminary earnings that included a 24% drop in sales. Shares tanked 24.16%.

CITE: https://tinyurl.com/2h47urt5

Here’s where the major stock market benchmarks ended:

  • The S&P 500® index (SPX)rose 23.20 points (0.40%) to 5,864.67, a new record high close, to end the week up 0.85%; the Dow Jones Industrial Average® ($DJI) added 36.86 points (0.09%) to 43,275.91, also another record high finish, to end the week up 0.96%; and the $COMP gained 115.94 points (0.63%) to 18,489.55 to end the week up 0.80%.
  • The 10-year Treasury note yield (TNX) fell two basis points to 4.07%.
  • The CBOE Volatility Index® (VIX) fell to 18.17, the lowest since September 30.

CITE: https://tinyurl.com/tj8smmes

A new survey results may prompt health systems to second-guess some of their future plans. A recent University of Michigan survey found 74% of adults ages 50+ have “very little or no trust” in health info generated by AI. Maybe it’s not time to roll out chatbots on patient portals just yet.

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Society of Physician Entrepreneurs – About Us

By Dr. David Edward Marcinko MBA MEd CMP

SPONSOR: http://www.MarcinkoAssociates.com

The Society of Physician Entrepreneurs (SoPE) was established as a community of interest in 2008 by several members of the American Academy of Otolaryngology – Head and Neck Surgery (AAO-HNS), including Dr. Arlen Meyers, the founding past President & CEO. SoPE became a separate and independent legal entity; incorporating in Washington, D.C. in January 2011. It is a 501 (c) 6 member organization with the stated purpose of providing support; idea stage through funding, for physician entrepreneurs with ideas on how to improve healthcare.

SoPE’s vision is to accelerate physician originated biomedical innovation.

The mission of SoPE is to foster scholarship in biomedical entrepreneurship and provide education, training and support; idea stage through funding, to primarily community-based physician entrepreneurs in the interest of better healthcare.

SoPE membership is open to all physicians and also accepts individuals as associate members; representatives of medical device, legal, venture capital, and other firms with an interest in serving and/or supporting physician entrepreneurs.

Website: www.sopenet.org

MORE: https://sopenet.org/wp/wp-content/uploads/2019/09/aug-2014.pdf

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Do Doctors Use ChatGPT in Clinical Decisions?

By Staff Reporters

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Are doctors using publicly available tools like ChatGPT? The answer, Fierce Healthcare finds, is yes. In the first in-depth look of its kind into physician use of public genAI tools, Fierce Healthcare spoke with nearly two dozen doctors, students, AI experts and regulators, and helped conduct a survey of more than 100 physicians. The reporting confirms that some doctors are turning to tools intended for non-clinical uses to make clinical decisions. 

More: https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jamainternalmedicine/fullarticle/2804309

A collaborative survey between Fierce Healthcare and physician social network Sermo found that 76% of respondents reported using general-purpose LLMs in clinical decision-making. With no standardized guidelines, lagging physician training and regulators racing to try to keep up with rapidly changing technology, guardrails to protect patients appear to be years behind current rates of utilization.

Source: Fierce Healthcare [10/8/24]

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FAST FACTS: Retirement Income in the USA

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By Staff Reporters

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According to the National Institute on Retirement Security, almost 40 million households have no retirement savings at all. The Employee Benefit Research Institute (EBRI) estimates in its 2019 Retirement Security Projection Model that America’s current retirement savings deficit is $3.8 trillion.

What does that mean? Well, the EBRI report aggregates the savings deficit of all U.S. households headed by someone between the ages of 35 and 64, inclusive. In total, those households have $3.8 trillion fewer dollars in savings than they should have for retirement.

For more recent data, Fidelity Investments reported that in the third quarter of 2022 the average account balance for an IRA was $101,900. Employees with a 401(k) averaged $97,200, while those with a 403(b) had $87,400.

Fidelity also estimated that “an average retired couple age 65 in 2022 may need approximately $315,000 saved (after tax) to cover health care expenses in retirement.”  Keeping in mind that more Americans are also living longer than ever before, they will face more challenges to cover medical expenses in retirement.

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DAILY UPDATE: UnitedHealth, PBMs, Walgreens and Edmunds as Stock Climb

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UnitedHealth posted $6 billion in profit and $100 billion in revenue, but the company’s stock is dipping this morning.


Walgreens is closing 1,200 stores by 2027 and a net loss of $3 billion, though the company beat Wall Street’s expectations.

CITE: https://www.r2library.com/Resource

Stocks Up

  • Chip stocks recovered lost ground today thanks to a strong earnings report from TSMC (more on that below). Nvidia led the group higher, rising 0.89% to yet another new all-time high.
  • Blackstone rose 6.30% to a new record high after the world’s largest alternative asset manager reported an excellent quarter.
  • Expedia popped 4.75% after a report by the Financial Times revealed that Uber had explored an acquisition of the travel site. Expedia shareholders cheered the news, while Uber shares sank 2.45%.

Stocks Down

  • Robinhood fell 2.27% after announcing its new Legend trading platform geared specifically toward advanced traders.
  • Lucid Group plummeted 17.99% on the news that the EV automaker is offering over 262 million shares of its common stock in an attempt to raise funds.
  • CSX dropped 6.71% after missing both top- and bottom-line estimates last quarter thanks in no small part to hurricanes Helene and Milton.
  • Health insurance stocks took a beating today due to a not-great earnings report from Elevance Health (more on that below, too). Centene Corp. fell 9.09%, while Molina Healthcare tumbled 12.55%.

CITE: https://tinyurl.com/2h47urt5

Here’s where the major benchmarks ended:

  • The S&P 500® index (SPX) slipped 1.00point (–0.02%) to 5,841.47; the $DJI added 161.35 points (0.37%) to 43,239.05; and the NASDAQ Composite®($COMP) rose 6.53 points (0.04%) to 18,373.61. 
  • The 10-year Treasury note yield (TNX) climbed eight basis points to 4.1%.
  • The CBOE Volatility Index® (VIX) sank to 18.97 by late Thursday, a two-week low.

CITE: https://tinyurl.com/tj8smmes

The average amount owed on “upside down” auto loans, in which the balance is more than the car is worth, hit a record high of $6,458 in the third quarter, according to Edmunds, a site that helps consumers research and buy cars

Diabetes advocates have officially joined the fight against pharmacy benefit managers (PBMs).

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OCTOBER: “Financial Planning” Month for Doctors

DR. DAVID EDWARD MARCINKO MBA MEd CMP™

http://www.MarcinkoAssociates.com

History for Us All

http://www.CertifiedMedicalPlanner.org

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History of Financial Planning Month

Financial planning as a concept has been around for a long time, but not as we know it today. When Loren Dunton set up the Society for Financial Counseling Ethics in 1969, or when the first graduating class of the College of Financial Planning graduated in 1973, financial planning was very different. It was centered around selling limited partnerships, which came to end with the Tax Reform Act of 1986.

However, financial planning re-emerged — all thanks to Richard Averitt III. The certified financial planner gave new meaning to financial planning, this time with a focus on who the client is and what their needs are. This approach was purely methodological in nature.

Soon after, financial planning picked up again. According to the Certified Financial Planner (C.F.P.) Board of Standards in Denver, today, there are more than 94,000 C.F.P.s worldwide, including over 48,000 in the U.S. Additionally, there are also organizations that have been set up for C.F.P.s, such as the Financial Planning Association (FPA), which has approximately 22,000 members.

And, don’t forget the emerging Certified Medical Planner professional fiduciary designation for physicians, dentists, nurses and allied healthcare clients.

Financial planning, as we know it now, includes investing, tax planning, retirement planning, and basically other ways to get your finances in order and create mindful budgets to ensure a safe and secure future. Getting a step ahead of your spending and finances is beneficial in the long run and Financial Planning Month in October is the perfect time to do that.

MORE: https://medicalexecutivepost.com/2022/10/27/october-national-financial-planning-month/

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2024 NOBEL PRIZE ECONOMICS: Daron Acemoglu, James Robinson and Simon Johnson

By Staff Reporters

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Authors of the seminal textbook Why Nations Fail, Daron Acemoglu, James Robinson, and former International Monetary Fund chief economist Simon Johnson will split the roughly $1 million cash prize for their research, which found a link between a country’s prosperity and the institutions it established during European colonization.

CITE: https://www.r2library.com/Resource/Title/0826102549

According to the award-winning research:

  • Places developed either “inclusive” or “extractive” institutions based on population density. The former allowed for inclusive governance (i.e., democracy), while the latter extracted resources to benefit a small group of elites.
  • Countries that developed inclusive institutions have experienced long-term prosperity; those with exclusive institutions haven’t. “Broadly speaking, the work that we have done favors democracy,” Acemoglu said.

Eample: In the twin cities of Nogales, on the US-Mexico border, the north and south parts of the transborder city have the same climate and the same resources, but the section in the US is far richer because of the country’s institutions, according to the researchers.

Critics. Some academics argue the Nobel winners’ premise ignores the effects of culture on prosperity. Others point to an irrefutable counterexample: China continues to experience explosive growth despite having an autocratic government.

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PODCAST: What is “SWARM” Learning?

By Dr. David E. Marcinko MBA MEd CMP

SWARM INTELLIGENCE IN MEDICINE

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Warm Learning or Swarm Intelligence, is how swarms of bees or birds move in response to their environment.

When applied to data there is “more peer-to-peer communications, more peer-to-peer collaboration, more peer-to-peer learning and that’s the reason why swarm learning will become more and more important as … as the center of gravity shifts” from centralized to decentralized data.

DZNE : AI with Swarm Intelligence

Medicine Example:

Consider this example,  “A hospital trains their machine learning models on chest X-rays and sees a lot of tuberculosis cases, but very little of lung collapsed cases. So therefore, this neural network model, when trained, will be very sensitive to what’s detecting tuberculosis and less sensitive towards detecting lung collapse.”

“However, we get the converse of it in another hospital. So what you really want is to have these two hospitals combine their data so that the resulting neural network model can predict both situations better. But since you can’t share that data, swarm learning comes in to help reduce that bias of both the hospitals.”

And this means, “each hospital is able to predict outcomes, with accuracy and with reduced bias, as though you have collected all the patient data globally in one place and learned from it.”

Moreover, it’s not just hospital and patient data that must be kept secure. What swarm learning does is to try to avoid or reduce the sharing of data, or totally prevent the sharing of data, to [a model] where you only share the insights, or you share the learnings.

So, that’s why it is fundamentally more secure.

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DR. GOH PODCAST: https://www.technologyreview.com/2021/08/16/1031738/a-new-age-of-data-means-embracing-the-edge/?mc_cid=30af99395f&mc_eid=72aee829ad

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DICTIONARY: https://www.amazon.com/Dictionary-Health-Information-Technology-Security/dp/0826149952/ref=sr_1_5?ie=UTF8&s=books&qid=1254413315&sr=1-5

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PODCAST: Value Investing with Vitaliy Katsenelson CFA

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Amazon.com: Vitaliy Katsenelson: Books, Biography, Blog, Audiobooks, Kindle

By Vitaliy N. Katsenelson, CFA

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EDITOR’S NOTE: In this interview with investment website @GuruFocus, my colleague Vitaliy shares the full gamut of how he invests, where and why. He touches on the role of being eclectic when investing, how to invest abroad, and how value investors should think about macro-economics and finance, among many other important topics. Enjoy this fun and wide-ranging interview!

Dr. David Edward Marcinko MBA MEd CMP®

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PODCAST: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eTSTbF0GwVw&t=69s

Your comments are appreciated.

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FINANCE: https://www.amazon.com/Comprehensive-Financial-Planning-Strategies-Advisors/dp/1482240289/ref=sr_1_1?ie=UTF8&qid=1418580820&sr=8-1&keywords=david+marcinko

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DAILY UPDATE: Goldman Sachs, Starbucks and Walgreens as Stock Markets Boost Up

MEDICAL EXECUTIVE-POST TODAY’S NEWSLETTER BRIEFING

Essays, Opinions and Curated News in Health Economics, Investing, Business, Management and Financial Planning for Physician Entrepreneurs and their Savvy Advisors and Consultants

Serving Almost One Million Doctors, Financial Advisors and Medical Management Consultants Daily

A Partner of the Institute of Medical Business Advisors , Inc.

http://www.MedicalBusinessAdvisors.com

SPONSORED BY: Marcinko & Associates, Inc.

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Goldman Sachs’ profit jumped 45% in monster quarter. The investment bank made $3 billion of profit on revenue of nearly $13 billion in Q3, it reported yesterday, surpassing even the rosiest of expectations. Bloomberg reported that it was the best quarter ever for Goldman’s stock trading unit, putting the group on track for a record year.

Walgreens said it will close 1,200 US stores, about one in seven locations, by 2027. The retailer will shutter 500 stores by the end of next year.

CITE: https://www.r2library.com/Resource

UP STOCKS

Trump Media & Technology Group has had a wild week, falling nearly 10% yesterday before trading of the stock was halted, then popping 15.52% today. Election hype, a Trump-sponsored cryptocurrency, and Truth+, a new streaming service, are keeping shareholders on their toes.

  • Abbott Laboratories rose 1.53% thanks to a stronger-than-expected earnings report powered by the company’s impressive medical device sales.
  • Aspen Aerogels makes insulating material for batteries, which sounds boring to everyone but the Department of Energy. The DOE signed a conditional commitment to loan the company up to $670 million, sending shares 13.24% higher.

DOWN STOCKS

  • Novavax plummeted 19.44% after the FDA put a hold on the pharma company’s flu and Covid vaccine combination.
  • ASML Holding NV dropped another 6.42% today as the semiconductor selloff continues.
  • Interactive Brokers enjoyed higher revenue and more trading from its user base last quarter, but earnings per share came in under expectations, and shares sank 4.05%.

CITE: https://tinyurl.com/2h47urt5

Here’s where the major benchmarks ended:

  • The SPX rose27.21points (0.47%) to 5,842.47; the Dow Jones Industrial Average® ($DJI) added 337.28 points (0.79%) to 43,077.70; and the NASDAQ Composite®($COMP) increased 51.49 points (0.28%) to 18.367.08. 
  • The 10-year Treasury note yield (TNX) fell two basis points to just below 4.02%, the lowest close since October 4.
  • The CBOE Volatility Index® (VIX) dropped moderately to 19.58, still elevated considering stock market strength.

CITE: https://tinyurl.com/tj8smmes

Starbucks is reportedly pivoting from discounts and promotions to refocus on selling premium coffee and seasonal drinks

Visualize: How private equity tangled banks in a web of debt, from the Financial Times.

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CRISPR: Play-by-Play of an Experiment

Scientists in Jennifer Doudna’s lab pull back the veil on their gene-editing process

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Clustered Regularly InterSpaced Palindromic Repeat

By Hayden Field

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CRISPR is a family of DNA sequences found in the genomes of prokaryotic organisms such as bacteria and archaea. These sequences are derived from DNA fragments of bacteriophages that had previously infected the prokaryote. They are used to detect and destroy DNA from similar bacteriophages during subsequent infections

CITE: https://www.amazon.com/Dictionary-Health-Information-Technology-Security/dp/0826149952/ref=sr_1_5?ie=UTF8&s=books&qid=1254413315&sr=1-5

And, we’ve posted about CRISPR before: https://medicalexecutivepost.com/2021/07/08/on-crispr-gene-editing/

So now, what is the use of CRISPR for antiobiotics?

READ: https://www.emergingtechbrew.com/stories/2022/07/26/from-infant-poop-to-trance-music-here-s-a-play-by-play-of-a-crispr-experiment?mid=349b552221c994e2540a304649746d7c

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CHARITY LURE: Identifiable Victim Effect

IDENTIFIABLE PERPETRATOR EFFECT

By Staff Reporters

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According to colleague Dan Ariely PhD, the The Identifiable Victim Effect [IVE] is why we’re more moved by one person’s story than by statistics. It’s easier to empathize with a single, identifiable victim than with a faceless group. Charities know this and often highlight individual stories to tug at our heartstrings. It’s a powerful reminder that our compassion is wired for personal connections.

The identifiable victim effect has two components. People are more inclined to help an identified victim than an unidentified one, and people are more inclined to help a single identified victim than a group of identified victims. Although helping an identified victim may be commendable, the identifiable victim effect is considered a cognitive bias. From a consequential point of view, the cognitive error is the failure to offer N times as much help to N unidentified victims.

The identifiable victim effect has a mirror image that is sometimes called the identifiable perpetrator effect. Research has shown that individuals are more inclined to mete out punishment, even at their own expense, when they are punishing a specific, identified perpetrator.

So, when you hear a touching story that makes you want to help, remember: it’s your brain responding to the power of a single, human face.

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DAILY UPDATE: Maximum Lifespan as Medicare Part C is Down and Stocks Markets Decline

MEDICAL EXECUTIVE-POST TODAY’S NEWSLETTER BRIEFING

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Essays, Opinions and Curated News in Health Economics, Investing, Business, Management and Financial Planning for Physician Entrepreneurs and their Savvy Advisors and Consultants

Serving Almost One Million Doctors, Financial Advisors and Medical Management Consultants Daily

A Partner of the Institute of Medical Business Advisors , Inc.

http://www.MedicalBusinessAdvisors.com

SPONSORED BY: Marcinko & Associates, Inc.

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Maximum lifespans. The upper limit of human life expectancy is leveling out, according to a new study published in the journal Nature Aging. Back in 1990, life-extending tech and health measures were increasing the average global lifespan by about 2.5 years per decade, but that dropped to 1.5 years per decade in the 2010s and closer to zero in the US, where there are more drug overdoses, shootings, and medical care inequities.

CITE: https://www.r2library.com/Resource

STOCKS UP

Sphere Entertainment popped 6.33% on the news that a second Sphere will be built in Abu Dhabi. London was originally supposed to be the location of a second venue, but they’ve already got the Eye, and didn’t need more circular tourist attractions.

  • Oklo, a Sam Altman-backed nuclear energy startup, rose another 16.04% on the news that Google will purchase nuclear power to turbocharge its AI infrastructure.
  • Charles Schwab climbed 6.10% after the bank announced a top and bottom line beat last quarter, as well as higher revenue projections for the full fiscal year.
  • Boeing somehow gained 2.26% after announcing it is raising $35 billion to support its struggling finances as the machinist union strike enters its second month.
  • Wolfspeed, which sounds like a super power in a YA novel, soared 21.27% on the news that the US government will provide the chipmaker with up to $750 million in government grants.

STOCKS DOWN

  • Semiconductor stocks got a double whammy in the last 48 hours. First, Bloomberg revealed that US officials are considering limiting the sale of AI chips outside the country. Then, ASML missed its Q3 sales estimates (more on that below). Nvidia shares slid 4.52%, AMD fell 5.22%, and Intel dropped 3.33%.
  • Citigroup beat earnings estimates this quarter, but shareholders punished the bank for setting aside more money in case of higher loan losses ahead. Shares dropped 5.11%.
  • Coty, parent company of numerous beauty brands like CoverGirl, fell 10.74% to a new 52-week low after it warned of a sales slowdown in the coming quarters.
  • Enphase Energy tumbled 9.29% after RBC analysts downgraded the solar power stock, citing growing competition from the likes of Tesla as well as slowing demand for solar batteries.
  • Speaking of energy, oil stocks plummeted on news of Israel’s targeting of Iranian military assets rather than crude production facilities. Exxon Mobil fell 3.01%, Chevron dropped 2.67%, and Valero Energy sank 4.62%.

CITE: https://tinyurl.com/2h47urt5

Here’s where the major benchmarks ended yesterday:

  • The S&P 500® index (SPX) fell 44.59 points (–0.76%) to 5,815.26; the Dow Jones Industrial Average® ($DJI) dropped 324.80 points (–0.75%) to 42,740.42; and the NASDAQ Composite® ($COMP) lost 187.09 points (–1.01%) to 18,315.59.
  • The 10-year Treasury note yield (TNX) fell three basis points to 4.04%, the lowest close in a week.
  • The CBOE Volatility Index® (VIX) climbed to 20.72, an elevated level.

CITE: https://tinyurl.com/tj8smmes

Millions of seniors will lose access to their Medicare Advantage plans after major insurer cuts in the aftermath of the Inflation Reduction Act. Experts spoke with Newsweek about what’s going on and what steps seniors can take to get the coverage they need.

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FRAUD SCHEMES of [Fewer] Medical Providers

[TOP TEN IN HEALTH CARE]

Sponsor: http://www.CertifiedMedicalPlanner.org

CMP logo

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By Dr. David E. Marcinko MBA CMP®

  1. Billing for services not rendered.
  2. Billing for a non-covered service as a covered service.
  3. Misrepresenting dates of service.
  4. Misrepresenting locations of service.
  5. Misrepresenting provider of service.
  6. Waiving of deductibles and/or co-payments.
  7. Incorrect reporting of diagnoses or procedures (includes unbundling).
  8. Overutilization of services.
  9. Corruption (kickbacks and bribery).
  10. False or unnecessary issuance of prescription drugs.

[Source]: Charles Piper; CFE CRT January/February 2013 ACFE

Related: https://medicalexecutivepost.com/2020/10/01/healthcare-fraud-and-abuse-costs-and-cases-rose-in-2019/

More: https://medicalexecutivepost.com/2017/05/03/combating-healthcare-fraud/

Update: https://medicalexecutivepost.com/2021/04/24/fraudsters-phishing-for-physician-signatures/

ASSESSMENT: Your thoughts are appreciated.

Risk Management, Liability Insurance, and Asset Protection Strategies for Doctors and Advisors : Best Practices from Leading Consultants and Certified Medical Planners™ book cover

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MEDICARE: Open Enrollment Period Commences

By Staff Reporters & The Medicare Team

Medicare open enrollment—which runs from October 15th through December 7th this year—is your chance to check in on your Medicare plan and, if needed, change it.

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Mark your calendars — Medicare Open Enrollment starts October 15th! Did you know new benefits are coming to Medicare drug coverage next year?

Starting in 2025, all Medicare plans will include a $2,000 cap on what you pay out-of-pocket for prescription drugs covered by your plan. So, it’s more important than ever to make sure your drugs are covered.

Also starting next year, you can choose to participate in a program that spreads your out-of-pocket drug costs across the calendar year, instead of paying all at once at the pharmacy. It’s called the Medicare Prescription Payment Plan — and you can opt in with your plan throughout the 2025 plan year. Contact your plan for more details.

Preview Coverage Options

Remember, Medicare plans can change from one year to the next, and so can your health needs. Preview and compare all your health and drug options and see if you can save!

The Medicare Team

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Medical Practice Valuation Blunders

 Top Ten Appraisal Blunders to Avoid

By Dr. David Edward Marcinko; MBA, MEd, CMP™

MARCINKO & ASSOCIATES: https://marcinkoassociates.com/

Top Ten Appraisal Blunders to Avoid

The science of the modern medical practice valuation can be traced to the Estate of Edgar A. Berg v. Commissioner (T. C. Memo 1991-279). In this case, the Court criticized CPAs as not being qualified to perform business valuations, failing to provide analysis of an appropriate discount rates, and making only general references to justify their   “Opinion of Value.”

In rejecting accountants, the Court accepted IRS economists because of background, education and training, as well as discount rate calculations and reproducible evidence applied to the assets being examined. This marked the beginning of the Tax Court leaning toward the side with the most comprehensive appraisal. Previously, it had a tendency to “split the difference.” Now, some feel the Berg case launched the valuation profession; especially for contemporaneous health economists.

But, it was not until after 1995 that the IRS issued guidelines for the valuation of physician practices. As a result, the Uniform Standards of Professional Appraisal Practice [USPAP] requires that a blended constellation of three recognized valuation approaches (income, market, and cost approaches) be considered when estimating fair market value.

Operative Valuation Definitions

When pursuing any discussion of medical practice worth, two key elements must be understood: (1) the valuation process, and (2) fair market value.  According to the Dictionary of Health Economics and Finance

  1. Practice valuation is the “the formal process of determining the worth of a healthcare or other medical business entity, at a specific point in time, and the act or process of determining fair market value.”
  2. Fair market value [FMV] is “a legal term generally meaning the price at which a willing buyer will buy, and a willing seller will sell an asset in an open free market with full disclosure.”  IRS Revenue Ruling 59-60 clearly states that FMV “is essentially a future prophesy and must be based on facts available at the required date of appraisal”

Unfortunately, the value of a medical practice cannot be directly observed by activity in thinly traded private markets. Perhaps this is why we continually observe the following valuation blunders? They are committed by both sellers and buyers who are pursuing opposite objectives; sale price maximization versus price minimization?

Top 10 Blunders:

Not Understanding What a Medical Practice Valuation Is and Is Not

  • Valuations are not source document fraud audits.
  • Valuations are material representations providing a range of transferable worth.
  • Valuations are reproducible estimates based on economic assumptions.
  • Valuations are not “back-of-the envelope multiples” using specious benchmarks.
  • Valuations are defensible and “signed-off” attesting to USPAP/IRS formats.
  • Financial accounting value [book-value] is not fair market value.
  • Professional valuators represent only one party at arm’s length; not both sides.
  • Engagement solicitor and/or valuation payer is the client.
  • Unbiased valuators do not provide financing or equity-participation schemes. Although not standardized, the Institute of Medical Business Advisors, Inc uses the following three levels that approximate engagement types for the industry.

2. A Limited Valuation lacks additional suggested USPAP procedures.  It is considered an “agreed-upon-procedure”, used in circumstances where the client is the only user [i.e., updating a buy-sell agreement, or practice buy-in for a valued associate] and not for external purposes. No onsite visit is needed. A formal Opinion of Value is not rendered.

3. Not Observing Industry Standards, Rules and Regulations

Specifically, in USPAP transactions involving physician practices, the IRS implied:

  • Ad-Hoc Valuation is low level engagement that provides a gross and non-specific approximation of value based on limited meters by involved parties. Neither a written report, nor an Opinion of Value is rendered. It is often used periodically as an internal organic growth / decline gauge.
  • A Comprehensive Valuation is an extensive service designed to provide an unambiguous Opinion of Value range. It is supported by all procedures that valuators deem relevant with mandatory onsite review. This “gold-standard” is suitable for contentious situations like divorce, partnership dissolution, estate planning and gifting, etc. The written Opinion of Value is applicable for litigation support activities like depositions and trial. It is also useful for external reporting to bankers, investors, the public and IRS, etc.

4. Not Understanding Engagement Types and Levels

  • Discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis is the most relevant income approach and must be done on an “after-tax” basis.
  • Practice collections must be projected based on reasonable assumptions for the practice and market; etc.
  • Physician compensation must be based on market rates consistent with age, experience and productivity.
  • Majority premiums and minority discounts are to be considered.Goodwill represents the difference between practice purchase price and the value of the net assets.  Personal goodwill results from the charisma, skills and reputation of a specific doctor. Its attributes accrue solely to the individual, are not transferable and can’t be sold. It has little or no economic value as it “goes to the grave” with the doctor.  Transferable medical practice goodwill has value, may be transferred, and is defined as the unidentified residual attributes that contribute to the propensity of patients and managed care contracts (and their revenue streams) to return in the future (Schilbach v. Commissioner, T.C. Memo 1991-556).  And so, one must also appreciate the: (i) impact of a changing environment; (ii) practice transfer in a local market which can augment or blunt goodwill value; and the (iii) determination of whether patients or HMOs return because of true goodwill, or are mandated by contractual obligations; among many other multi-variable determinants.
  • Even the Goodwill Registry however, a classic source used to determine the average percentage of revenue contributed to practice goodwill, may be dated for some specialties leading to abnormally high values.

5. Not Understanding the Value of Practice Goodwill: Unlimited life span.

6. Not Understanding the Value of Personal Goodwill: Limited life span.

Now, to further confuse the issue, how each kind of goodwill is allocated in situations like divorce depends on state law. For example, some courts include both kinds of goodwill to be apportioned – some exclude both – and others pursue a case-by-case approach.

7. Not Understanding “Excess Earnings Capitalization”

Another way to determine goodwill value is through “excess earnings capitalization.” This economic method looks at the difference between salary, and what you’d have to pay a comparable doctor replacement.

As an example, when you subtract the numbers, and divide the result by 20%, an important percentage referred to as the Capitalization Rate emerges. The final number gives a dollar value for practice goodwill. Courts seem to prefer this method in divorces because it tends to reflect a practice’s current value.

8. Not Understanding the Present Compensation versus Future Value Paradox

Regardless of practice business model, physician compensation is inversely related to practice value. In other words, the more a doctor takes home in above-average salary, the less the practice is generally worth, and vice versa; ceteris paribus

9. Substituting Benchmarks and Formulas for Practice Specificity

In the stable economic past, industry benchmarks might have been used as quick and inexpensive substitutes for professionally prepared valuations.  Muck like preparing one’s own income tax return today – while legal – it is a fraught with peril if challenged. The Courts seem to frown on this simplistic and dated methodology.

Moreover, generic benchmark formulas assume a financial statement reporting standard that just does not exist in public accounting.

Therefore, most every competitive issue that impacts value should be addressed with each practice engagement. This includes, but is not limited to contemporary dislocations by third parties, Medicare and commercial payers; retail clinics and changes in supply/demand and specialty trends; rise of ambulatory surgery centers and specialty hospitals; outsourced care and medical tourism, alterations in resource based-relative value units, APCs, DRGs and newer MS-DRGs; the Medicare Modernization Act, HIPAA, OSHA, EEOC, Sarbanes-Oxley and US Patriot Acts, PP-CA, and ACOs; among other regulations.

Current employee trends to high-deductible health care plans [HD-HCPs] and private concierge medicine must also be considered, as well as demographic and employer shifts to defined contribution plans – from defined benefits plans – to name just a few more complicating issues.

10. Not Aggregating or “Normalizing” Financial Information

Employees may be interviewed and financial information must be gathered before a medical practice can be properly valued. The following data, for the most recent three year period, serves as a starting point:

  • Practice (corporate) tax returns.
  • Equipment / automobile leasing and/or tax depreciation schedules.
  • Accounts Receivable aging-schedule.
  • Practice consolidated financial statements (P&L, Cash Flow, Balance Sheet and Retained Earnings).
  • Prior Buy-Sell and/or non-compete agreements, and;
  • Sample medical record chart review is increasingly being demanded.
  • It is especially important to eliminate one-time, non-recurring practice expenses. These are adjusted for excessive or below normal expenses on the profit and loss statement. Such “normalization” can produce a big surprise for benchmark proponents and formula-driven advocates when a selling doctor runs personal expenditures through the practice that a buyer [or Court] wouldn’t consider legitimate.  Of course, such shenanigans are less noted using professional USPAP/IRS guidelines. Conversely, you may have to defend legitimate business expenses that an appraiser may seek to normalize. For example, doctors may pay for a vehicle through their practice, but if used to travel between multiple offices and hospitals, the expense may be legitimate.  Of course, normalization is a sophisticated and time-intensive process. But, it is where the expert earns his/her professional fee, and defends the resulting valuation range when challenged.The most important credential to look for is fiduciary experience, specificity and independence. Some doctors mistakenly turn to those who may have never appraised a practice before. And, just because an appraiser has initials behind his name, doesn’t mean he understands the peculiarities of medical specialties, especially podiatry. We believe that only an independent health economist, who will be your advocate under Securities Exchange Commission [SEC] fiduciary [not lower “suitability”] guidelines, should be selected. Of course, it is almost impossible to answer concerns regarding fees without specific information. The cost of a valuation can range from $0 (benchmarks-rule of thumb) to $50,000 for an onsite team of experts for behemoth practices and ambulatory surgery centers. Keep in mind that in most cases you want to ensure the value determination will stand up to IRS scrutiny, so the $0 rule-of-thumb is not an optionExternal appraisals, or poorly aggregated financial information, onsite reviews and litigation support services incur additional costs; yet most doctors find the money well spent. Expect to pay a retainer and sign a formal professional engagement letter.

Assessment

Don’t be surprised if a sales-broker does not consider the above issues as the modern health era emerges. Most agent-appraisers are predominantly concerned with earning commissions by working both transaction parties, and may not represent your best interests. And, they are usually not obliged to disclose conflicts-of-interest and don’t provide legal testimony.

As a result, a good medical practice is no longer necessarily a good business; and retiring doctors can no longer automatically expect to extract premium sales prices. Moreover, uninformed young physicians should not be goaded to over-pay. Regardless of your dismay – or delight – in the changing healthcare milieu, always be foreword thinking and remember the admonition, Trust-but Verify, for any business transaction. 

But, it is a fait accompli that medical practice worth is presently deteriorating. As the population ages and third-party reimbursements plummet, doctors are commoditized and traditional retail medicine is replaced by more efficient wholesale business models like workplace health clinics. The recent sub-prime mortgage de-fault fiasco, potential tax-reform law expiration and the political specter of a nationalized healthcare system, only adds fuel to the macro-economic fires of uncertainly.

Finally, once practice price is mutually agreed upon, sales contract terms and agreements present a plethora of financing challenges for both involved parties to consider [bank loan payment rates and length, personal promissory guarantees, down-payment offsets, earn-out arrangements, Uniform Commercial Codes-1 asset guarantees, etc] in their due-diligence efforts.

However, most reputable firms use a blended fee-schedule of fixed and hourly rates (plus expenses). So, doctors should expect to spend approximately $5,000-15,000 for an average sized – limited appraisal – that is completely suitable for most internal activities.

Moreover, look-out if the valuation not done at an-arm’s-length and independent manner; or worse still, if it is performed for both parties simultaneously.

 Selecting the Wrong Valuator and Not Understanding Professional Fees

  • Realize too, that the appraiser may also add expenses that have not been incurred; like an office manager’s salary if your spouse is in that role for free. This produces a lower appraised value and is common in small medical practices. Honoraria are another example that does not figure into value calculations.
  • For example, we recall one doctor who painted his personal residence and wrote it-off as a valid business expense. Deleting other major expenses such as country club memberships, make a practice look more profitable—good news if you’re selling it, bad news if you’re getting a divorce.

Conclusion

Your thoughts and comments on this ME-P are appreciated. Feel free to review our top-left column, and top-right sidebar materials, links, URLs and related websites, too. Then, subscribe to the ME-P. It is fast, free and secure.

Speaker: If you need a moderator or speaker for an upcoming event, Dr. David E. Marcinko; MBA – Publisher-in-Chief of the Medical Executive-Post – is available for seminar or speaking engagements. Contact: MarcinkoAdvisors@msn.com

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Risk Management, Liability Insurance, and Asset Protection Strategies for Doctors and Advisors: Best Practices from Leading Consultants and Certified Medical Planners™8Comprehensive Financial Planning Strategies for Doctors and Advisors: Best Practices from Leading Consultants and Certified Medical Planners™

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DAILY UPDATE: Life Span, Earnings Reports, Oil, Gold and Bitcoin with Closing Stock Highs

MEDICAL EXECUTIVE-POST TODAY’S NEWSLETTER BRIEFING

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Essays, Opinions and Curated News in Health Economics, Investing, Business, Management and Financial Planning for Physician Entrepreneurs and their Savvy Advisors and Consultants

Serving Almost One Million Doctors, Financial Advisors and Medical Management Consultants Daily

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Maximum lifespans. The upper limit of human life expectancy is leveling out, according to a new study published in the journal Nature Aging. Back in 1990, life-extending tech and health measures were increasing the average global lifespan by about 2.5 years per decade, but that dropped to 1.5 years per decade in the 2010s and closer to zero in the US, where there are more drug overdoses, shootings, and medical care inequities.

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  • Stocks kicked off the first full week of earnings season at full throttle. The S&P 500 rose to a new intraday record, the Dow closed above 43,000 for the first time ever, and the NASDAQ climbed steadily throughout the trading session.
  • Bitcoin soared on the news of China’s additional stimulus spending that broke this weekend. Although the Chinese government’s plans are light on details at the moment, the promise of more support for the world’s second largest economy was enough to get crypto traders hyped.

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  • Interestingly enough, those same promises of Chinese stimulus sent oil tumbling to start the day. The selling was exacerbated by OPEC’s announcement that crude demand will fall lower than expected in 2024 and 2025.
  • Gold sank a hair today as traders weighed Chinese stimulus against a stronger dollar.

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Here’s where the major benchmarks ended:

  • The S&P 500® index (SPX) rose44.82points (0.77%) to 5,859.85, a new closing high; the Dow Jones Industrial Average® ($DJI) increased 201.36 points (0.47%) to 43,065.22, also a new closing high; and the NASDAQ Composite® ($COMP) added 159.74 points (0.87%) to 18,502.69.
  • The 10-year Treasury note yield (TNX) did not trade today due to the holiday. 
  • The CBOE Volatility Index® (VIX) slipped to 19.9, its first drop below 20 since October 4.

A slate of corporate earnings reports coming from Goldman Sachs, Bank of America, and Citigroup in the financial sector, along with healthcare giants Johnson & Johnson, Walgreens, and UnitedHealth. And throughout the week: Morgan Stanley will report on Wednesday, Netflix reports on Thursday, and Procter & Gamble and American Express drop their financials on Friday. It’ll pose a big test for the stock market’s $8 trillion rally this year.

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MARCINKO & ASSOCIATES: Financial Planning and Business Management Education for Physicians

By Dr. David Edward Marcinko MBA MEd CMP

CONSULTING ADVICE – NOT SALES

“AT YOUR SERVICE”

E-mail: MarcinkoAdvisors@msn.com

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Marcinko & Associates is financial guide. We help answer your questions in an empowering way. We educate and guide medical colleagues to understand their financial picture and to make better financial decisions. We strive to simplify everything, clear up confusion, and address specific needs and goals.

Simply put, we’re a financial services company on a mission to empower financial freedom for all healthcare professionals; only. We work with doctors, nurses, medical providers, individuals and all sizes of organizations to offer investment, wealth management and retirement solutions so everyone can have a clear and simple understanding of where their finances and career is today and where it is headed tomorrow.

Whatever your financial situation, we do not shame, criticize, or sell. We enrich, educate and empower. We work only with medical colleagues at every stage of their financial journey [students, interns, residents, practitioners, mid-career and mature physicians], through big life personal changes to annual employment reviews, in order to help them understand, invest, and protect their money and lifestyle.

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For example, the following are current issues of review need for each Fall and Winter:

  • Financial planning reviews: 401-k, insurance, budget plans, investing, debt and savings, etc
  • Assess, develop, and align financial retirement and estate planning goals
  • Risk Management: Malpractice, home, life, medical, auto and personal indemnity
  • Life Insurance Need Reviews: whole, universal and term  
  • Business, operations, HR, employment negotiations and medical practice management
  • Annuity Need Reviews: Indexed and Fixed [Pros and Cons].

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At Marcinko & Associates we discuss specific needs and answer specific questions. We educate and make personalized recommendations that you are free to use, incorporate or disregard. Referrals to trusted specialists and strategic alliance partners then occur if – and as – needed [pro re nata].

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AVOIDANT BEHAVIOR: Disease and Illness

COMMON SENSE PUBLIC AND POPULATION HEALTH

By Staff Reporters

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According to colleague Dan Ariely PhD, Disease Avoidant Behavior are the actions we take to avoid illness, often driven by instinctive or learned responses. It’s why we wash our hands obsessively during flu season, wear a balaclava mask and/or avoid people who are sneezing or coughing.

Note: A balaclava is a form of cloth headgear designed to expose only part of the face, usually the eyes and mouth. Depending on style and how it is worn, only the eyes, mouth and nose, or just the front of the face are unprotected. Versions with enough of a full face opening may be rolled into a hat to cover the crown of the head or folded down as a collar around the neck.

This behavior is rooted in our evolutionary survival instincts, helping us steer clear of contagious health threats like RSV, COVID and the winter flu. While it’s usually a good thing, excessive disease avoidant behavior can lead to anxiety and social isolation.

So, balance caution with common sense and public/population health directives to stay healthy and sane.

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What is Stock Market “Front-Running”?

What is Is – How it Works

dem-at-wharton2.jpg

By Dr. David E. Marcinko MBA MEd CMP

http://www.MarcinkoAssociates.com

According to Wikipedia, Front Running, also known as Tailgating, is the prohibited practice of entering into an equity (stock) trade, option, futures contract, derivative, or security-based swap to capitalize on advance, nonpublic knowledge of a large pending transaction that will influence the price of the underlying security.

Front running is considered a form of market manipulation in many markets. Cases typically involve individual brokers or brokerage firms trading stock in and out of undisclosed, un-monitored accounts of relatives or confederates. Institutional and individual investors may also commit a front running violation when they are privy to inside information. A front running firm either buys for its own account before filling customer buy orders that drive up the price, or sells for its own account before filling customer sell orders that drive down the price.

Front running is prohibited since the front-runner profits from nonpublic information, at the expense of its own customers, the block trade, or the public market.

Scandals

In 2003, several hedge fund and mutual fund companies became embroiled in an illegal late trading scandal made public by a complaint against Bank of America brought by New York Attorney General Eliot Spitzer. A resulting U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission investigation into allegations of front-running activity implicated Edward D. Jones & Co., Inc., Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley, Strong Mutual Funds, Putnam Investments, Invesco, and Prudential Securities.

Following interviews in 2012 and 2013, the FBI said front running had resulted in profits of $50 million to $100 million for the bank. Wall Street traders may have manipulated a key derivatives market by front running Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac.

Term Origins

The terms originate from the era when stock market trades were executed via paper carried by hand between trading desks. The routine business of hand-carrying client orders between desks would normally proceed at a walking pace, but a broker could literally run in front of the walking traffic to reach the desk and execute his own personal account order immediately before a large client order.

Likewise, a broker could tail behind the person carrying a large client order to be the first to execute immediately after. Such actions amount to a type of insider trading, since they involve non-public knowledge of upcoming trades, and the broker privately exploits this information by controlling the sequence of those trades to favor a personal position.

Assessment

So, was front-running implicated in the market drop today? OR, a technical correction or Panic selling? Any thoughts.

MORE: Investing “Tips” on Initial Public Offerings  https://medicalexecutivepost.com/2017/12/18/initial-public-offerings/

Conclusion

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COLUMBUS DAY 2024: Stocks, Bonds, Gold & Oil

By Staff Reporters

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U.S. stock markets, including the New York Stock Exchange and the NASDAQ remain open and follow a regular schedule today.

The bond markets will be closed, however.

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  • Stocks ended last week on a high note, closing out their fifth straight week of gains. The Dow was pushed to yet another new all-time high by strong earnings from JPMorgan, while the S&P 500 was in the green and rose to its own record close, and the NASDAQ clawed its way out of the red by early Friday afternoon.
  • Bond yields took a breather, falling below 4.1% thanks to a better-than-expected PPI report that helped offset inflation fears that had re-arisen after a worse-than-expected CPI report.
  • Gold rose as well on PPI news, since the data pointed to a better chance of more rate cuts ahead.
  • Oil fell a bit but gained over the last two weeks on geopolitical tensions and destruction in the Gulf of Mexico following the two major hurricanes.

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STOCK MARKET: A Zero Sum Bias?

By Staff Reporters

FINANCIAL / INVESTMENT ADVISORS & STOCK BROKERS

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According to colleague Dan Ariely PhD, a Zero Sum Bias [ZSB] is the mistaken belief that one person’s gain is another’s loss. It’s like thinking the world is a giant pie with only so many slices. This mindset fuels competition and jealousy, making us forget that collaboration can create more pie. It’s why we sometimes root against others instead of working together.

Question: Is the stock market a zero-sum game? You frequently hear media refer to games and markets as zero-sum games.

Answer: Well, yes, we define the stock market as a zero-sum game, both in the short and in the long term, although it technically is incorrect. A zero-sum game is where one person’s gain is another person’s loss – thus there is no wealth created and the overall benefit is zero. This doesn’t apply to stocks, but it’s a zero-sum game in relation to a stock market benchmark.

For example, short-term trading in stocks is theoretically not a zero-sum game, and neither is long-term investing. But short-term trading is close to a zero-sum game, and long-term investing is a zero-sum game if we use a broad index as a benchmark.

Essentially, in other words, the stock market functions as an expansive network of zero-sum transactions; each trade engages a buyer and a seller–their perspectives on a security’s future value contrasting. These opposing views propel market prices: they mirror not only risk transfer but also potential reward—a dynamic process indeed! Traders and investors must grasp the crucial zero-sum aspect; it underscores trading’s inherent competitiveness. Effectively anticipating market trends and actions from other participants: therein lies success in this environment. 

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So, next time you feel like someone else’s success diminishes your own, remember: there’s more than enough pie to go around.

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ORTHOPEDIC & PODIATRIC SURGERY: Ambulatory Surgery Centers

AVERAGE REVENUE PER CASE

By Staff Reporters

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Podiatry is 3rd in Average Revenue Per Case in ASCs

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Ambulatory Surgery Centers: Creating Value through Outpatient Surgery

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Orthopedic surgery topped the pack for ASC revenue per case, according to VMG Health’s “Multi-Specialty ASC Benchmarking Study” for 2022.

The specialty was only the fourth most-represented among ASC cases, however. Nationally, gastroenterology was the most-represented specialty among ASCs, with 32 percent of all cases, followed by ophthalmology, with 26 percent, and pain management and orthopedics, with 22 and 21 percent, respectively.

Average revenue per case:

1. Orthopedics — $3,791

2. Gynecology — $3,117

3. Podiatry — $2,990

4. Urology — $2,724

5. Otolaryngology — $2,617

6. General surgery — $2,508

7. Plastic surgery — $2,264

8. Ophthalmology — $1,487

9. Pain management — $1,273

10. Gastroenterology — $1,079

Source: Marcus Robertson, Becker’s ASC [2/15/22]

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Dr. Marcinko Interviewed on Physician Retirement and Succession Planning

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Physicians Have Unique Challenges and Opportunities

ENCORE PRESENTATION

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By Ann Miller RN MHA CMP

[Executive-Director]

Medical Executive-Post Publisher-in-Chief, Dr. David Edward Marcinko MBA CMP™, and financial planner Paul Larson CFP™, were interviewed by Sharon Fitzgerald for Medical News, Inc. Here is a reprint of that interview.

Doctors Squeezed from both Ends

Physicians today “are getting squeezed from both ends” when it comes to their finances, according Paul Larson, president of Larson Financial Group. On one end, collections and reimbursements are down; on the other end, taxes are up. That’s why financial planning, including a far-sighted strategy for retirement, is a necessity.

Larson Speaks

“We help these doctors function like a CEO and help them quarterback their plan,” said Larson, a Certified Financial Planner™ whose company serves thousands of physicians and dentists exclusively. Headquartered in St. Louis, Larson Financial boasts 19 locations.

Larson launched his company after working with a few physicians and recognizing that these clients face unique financial challenges and yet have exceptional opportunities, as well.

What makes medical practitioners unique? One thing, Larson said, is because they start their jobs much later in life than most people. Physicians wrap up residency or fellowship, on average, at the age of 32 or even older. “The delayed start really changes how much money they need to be saving to accomplish these goals like retirement or college for their kids,” he said.

Another thing that puts physicians in a unique category is that most begin their careers with a student-loan debt of $175,000 or more. Larson said that there’s “an emotional component” to debt, and many physicians want to wipe that slate clean before they begin retirement saving.

Larson also said doctors are unique because they are a lawsuit target – and he wasn’t talking about medical malpractice suits. “You can amass wealth as a doctor, get sued in five years and then lose everything that you worked so hard to save,” he said. He shared the story of a client who was in a fender-bender and got out of his car wearing his white lab coat. “It was bad,” Larson said, and the suit has dogged the client for years.

The Three Mistake of Retirement Planning

Larson said he consistently sees physicians making three mistakes that may put a comfortable retirement at risk.

  1. The first is assuming that funding a retirement plan, such as a 401(k), is sufficient. It’s not. “There’s no way possible for you to save enough money that way to get to that goal,” he said. That’s primarily due to limits imposed by the Internal Revenue Service, which allows a maximum contribution of $49,000 annually if self-employed and just $16,500 annually until the age of 50. He recommends that physicians throughout their career sock away 20 percent of gross income in vehicles outside of their retirement plan.
  2. The second common mistake is making investments that are inefficient from a tax perspective. In particular, real estate or bond investments in a taxable account prompt capital gains with each dividend, and that’s no way to make money, he said.
  3. The third mistake, and it’s a big one, is paying too much to have their money managed. A stockbroker, for example, takes a fee for buying mutual funds and then the likes of Fidelity or Janus tacks on an internal fee as well. “It’s like driving a boat with an anchor hanging off the back,” Larson said.

Marcinko Speaks

Dr. David E. Marcinko MBADr. David E. Marcinko MBA MEd CPHQ, a physician and [former] certified financial planner] and founder of the more specific program for physician-focused fiduciary financial advisors and consultants www.CertifiedMedicalPlanner.org, sees another common mistake that wreaks havoc with a physician’s retirement plans – divorce.

He said clients come to him “looking to invest in the next Google or Facebook, and yet they will get divorced two or three times, and they’ll be whacked 50 percent of their net income each time. It just doesn’t make sense.”

Marcinko practiced medicine for 16 years until about 10 years ago, when he sold his practice and ambulatory surgical center to a public company, re-schooled and retired. Then, his second career in financial planning and investment advising began. “I’m a doctor who went to business school about 20 years ago, before it was in fashion. Much to my mother’s chagrin, by the way,” he quipped. Marcinko has written 27 books about practice management, hospital administration and business, physician finances, risk management, retirement planning and practice succession. He’s the founder of the Georgia-based Institute of Medical Business Advisors Inc.

ECON

Succession Planning for Doctors

Succession planning, Marcinko said, ideally should begin five years before retirement – and even earlier if possible. When assisting a client with succession, Marcinko examines two to three years of financial statements, balance sheets, cash-flow statements, statements of earnings, and profit and loss statements, yet he said “the $50,000 question” remains: How does a doctor find someone suited to take over his or her life’s work? “We are pretty much dead-set against the practice broker, the third-party intermediary, and are highly in favor of the one-on-one mentor philosophy,” Marcinko explained.

“There is more than enough opportunity to befriend or mentor several medical students or interns or residents or fellows that you might feel akin to, and then develop that relationship over the years.” He said third-party brokers “are like real-estate agents, they want to make the sale”; thus, they aren’t as concerned with finding a match that will ensure a smooth transition.

The only problem with the mentoring strategy, Marcinko acknowledged, is that mentoring takes time, and that’s a commodity most physicians have too little of. Nonetheless, succession is too important not to invest the time necessary to ensure it goes off without a hitch.

Times are different today because the economy doesn’t allow physicians to gradually bow out of a practice. “My overhead doesn’t go down if I go part-time. SO, if I want to sell my practice for a premium price, I need to keep the numbers up,” he noted.

Assessment

Dr. Marcinko’s retirement investment advice – and it’s the advice he gives to anyone – is to invest 15-20 percent of your income in an Vanguard indexed mutual fund or diversified ETF for the next 30-50 years. “We all want to make it more complicated than it really is, don’t we?” he said.

QUESTION: What makes a physician moving toward retirement different from most others employees or professionals? Marcinko’s answer was simple: “They probably had a better shot in life to have a successful retirement, and if they don’t make it, shame on them. That’s the difference.”

More:

Conclusion

Your thoughts and comments on this ME-P are appreciated. Feel free to review our top-left column, and top-right sidebar materials, links, URLs and related websites, too. Then, subscribe to the ME-P. It is fast, free and secure.

Speaker: If you need a moderator or speaker for an upcoming event, Dr. David E. Marcinko; MBA – Publisher-in-Chief of the Medical Executive-Post – is available for seminar or speaking engagements. Contact: MarcinkoAdvisors@msn.com

OUR OTHER PRINT BOOKS AND RELATED INFORMATION SOURCES:

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FINANCE: Financial Planning for Physicians and Advisors
INSURANCE: Risk Management and Insurance Strategies for Physicians and Advisors

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DAILY UPDATE: Boeing, Nobel Peace Prize, Tesla, JPMorgan and Wells Fargo

MEDICAL EXECUTIVE-POST TODAY’S NEWSLETTER BRIEFING

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Essays, Opinions and Curated News in Health Economics, Investing, Business, Management and Financial Planning for Physician Entrepreneurs and their Savvy Advisors and Consultants

Serving Almost One Million Doctors, Financial Advisors and Medical Management Consultants Daily

A Partner of the Institute of Medical Business Advisors , Inc.

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Yom Kippur. Wishing a meaningful and easy fast to our readers who observe.

Boeing plans to lay off 10% of its workforce, or ~17,000 people, to cut costs as its factory workers’ strike continues.

The Nobel Peace Prize was awarded to Nihon Hidankyo, a Japanese organization of survivors of the atomic bombings of Hiroshima and Nagasaki, that advocates against nuclear weapons.

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  • Markets: After big banks—which are often viewed as a proxy for the economy’s health—kicked off earnings season strong, the S&P 500 and the Dow hit new records, capping off stocks’ fifth winning week in a row.

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Stock spotlight: Elon Musk’s presentation of Tesla’s long-awaited Robocab didn’t go as badly as that time the Cybertruck’s “unbreakable” window got smashed on stage, but investors were unimpressed by its lack of key details.

Hailing the news were Uber and Lyft, which rose after Tesla failed to present a looming threat.

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JPMorgan says the soft landing is here. Reporting its first quarterly earnings since the Fed’s big interest rate cut, America’s biggest bank earned more than expected from loans and boosted what it forecasts it’ll earn for the year.

In other banking news, Wells Fargo also beat earnings expectations.

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On Psychology, Financial Planning and Investing Bias

Psychological Biases Affecting Financial Planning and Investing

Dr. Marcinko at Johns Hopkins University

By Dr. David Edward Marcinko MBA MEd CMP®

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[Editor-in-Chief]

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The following are some of the most common psychological biases.  Some are learned while others are genetically determined (and often socially reinforced).  While this essay focuses on the financial implications of these biases, they are prevalent in most areas in life.

[A] Incentives

It is broadly accepted that incenting someone to do something is effective, whether it be paying office staff a commissions to sell more healthcare products, or giving bonuses to office employees if they work efficiently to see more HMO patients.  What is not well understood is that the incentives cause a sub-conscious distortion of decision-making ability in the incented person.  This distortion causes the affected person – whether it is yourself or someone else – to truly believe in a certain decision, even if it is the wrong choice when viewed objectively.  Service professionals, including financial advisors and lawyers, are affected by this bias, and it causes them to honestly offer recommendations that may be inappropriate, and that they would recognize as being inappropriate if they did not have this bias.  The existence of this bias makes it important for each one of us to examine our incentive biases and take extra care when advising physician clients, or to make sure we are appropriately considering non-incented alternatives.

[B] Denial

Denial is a well known, but under-appreciated, psychological force.  Physicians, clients and professionals (like everyone else) are prone to the mistake of ignoring a painful reality, like putting off an unpleasant call (thus prolonging a problematic situation and potentially making it worse) or not opening account statements because of the desire not to see quantitative proof of losses.  Denial also manifests itself by causing human beings to ignore evidence that a mistake has been made.  If you think of yourself as a smart person (and what professional doesn’t?), then evidence pointing to the conclusion that a mistake has been made will call into question that belief, causing cognitive dissonance.  Our brains function to either avoid cognitive dissonance or to resolve it quickly, usually by discounting or rationalizing the disconfirming evidence. Not surprisingly, colleagues at Kansas State University and elsewhere, found that financial denial, including attempts to avoid thinking about or dealing with money, is associated with lower income, lower net worth, and higher levels of revolving credit.

[C] Consistency and Commitment Tendency

Human beings have evolved – probably both genetically and socially – to be consistent.  It is easier and safer to deal with others if they honor their commitments and if they behave in a consistent and predictable manner over time. This allows people to work together and build trust that is needed for repeat dealings and to accomplish complex tasks.  In the jungle, this trust was necessary to for humans to successfully work as a team to catch animals for dinner, or fight common threats.  In business and life it is preferable to work with others who exhibit these tendencies.  Unfortunately, the downside of these traits is that people make errors in judgment because of the strong desire not to change, or be different (“lemming effect” or “group-think”).  So the result is that most people will seek out data that supports a prior stated belief or decision and ignore negative data, by not “thinking outside the box”.  Additionally, future decisions will be unduly influenced by the desire to appear consistent with prior decisions, thus decreasing the ability to be rational and objective.  The more people state their beliefs or decisions, the less likely they are to change even in the face of strong evidence that they should do so.  This bias results in a strong force in most people causing them to avoid or quickly resolve the cognitive dissonance that occurs when a person who thinks of themselves as being consistent and committed to prior statements and actions encounters evidence that indicates that prior actions may have been a mistake.  It is particularly important therefore for advisors to be aware that their communications with clients and the press clouds the advisor’s ability to seek out and process information that may prove current beliefs incorrect.  Since this is obviously irrational, one must actively seek out negative information, and be very careful about what is said and written, being aware that the more you shout it out, the more you pound it in.

[D] Pattern Recognition

On a biological level, the human brain has evolved to seek out patterns and to work on stimuli-response patterns, both native and learned.  What this means is that we all react to something based on our prior experiences that had shared characteristics with the current stimuli.  Many situations have so many possible inputs that our brains need to take mental short cuts using pattern recognition we would not gain the benefit from having faced a certain type of problem in the past.  This often-helpful mechanism of decision-making fails us when past correlations or patterns do not accurately represent the current reality, and thus the mental shortcuts impair our ability to analyze a new situation.  This biologic and social need to seek out patterns that can be used to program stimuli-response mechanisms is especially harmful to rational decision-making when the pattern is not a good predictor of the desired outcome (like short term moves in the stock market not being predictive of long term equity portfolio performance), or when past correlations do not apply anymore.

[E] Social Proof

It is a subtle but powerful reality that having others agree with a decision one makes, gives that person more conviction in the decision, and having others disagree decreases one’s confidence in that decision.  This bias is even more exaggerated when the other parties providing the validating/questioning opinions are perceived to be experts in a relevant field, or are authority figures, like people on television.  In many ways, the short term moves in the stock market are the ultimate expression of social proof – the price of a stock one owns going up is proof that a lot of other people agree with the decision to buy, and a dropping stock price means a stock should be sold.  When these stressors become extreme, it is of paramount importance that all participants in the financial planning process have a clear understanding of what the long-term goals are, and what processes are in place to monitor the progress towards these goals.  Without these mechanisms it is very hard to resist the enormous pressure to follow the crowd; think social media.

[F] Contrast

Sensation, emotion and cognition work by contrast.  Perception is not only on an absolute scale, it also functions relative to prior stimuli.  This is why room temperature water feels hot when experienced after being exposed to the cold.  It is also why the cessation of negative emotions “feels” so good.  Cognitive functioning also works on this principle.  So one’s ability to analyze information and draw conclusions is very much related to the context with in which the analysis takes place, and to what information was originally available.  This is why it is so important to manage one’s own expectations as well as those of clients.  A client is much more likely to be satisfied with a 10% portfolio return if they were expecting 7% than if they were hoping for 15%.

[G] Scarcity

Things that are scarce have more impact and perceived value than things present in abundance.  Biologically, this bias is demonstrated by the decreasing response to constant stimuli (contrast bias) and socially it is widely believed that scarcity equals value.  People who feel an opportunity may “pass them by” and thus be unavailable are much more likely to make a hasty, poorly reasoned decision than they otherwise would.  Investment fads and rising security prices elicit this bias (along with social proof and others) and need to be resisted.  Understanding that analysis in the face of perceived scarcity is often inadequate and biased may help professionals make more rational choices, and keep clients from chasing fads.

[H] Envy / Jealousy

This bias also relates to the contrast and social proof biases.  Prudent financial and business planning and related decision-making are based on real needs followed by desires.  People’s happiness and satisfaction is often based more on one’s position relative to perceived peers rather than an ability to meet absolute needs.  The strong desire to “keep up with the Jones” can lead people to risk what they have and need for what they want.  These actions can have a disastrous impact on important long-term financial goals.  Clear communication and vivid examples of risks is often needed to keep people focused on important financial goals rather than spurious ones, or simply money alone, for its own sake.

[I] Fear

Financial fear is probably the most common emotion among physicians and all clients. The fear of being wrong – as well as the fear of being correct! It can be debilitating, as in the corollary expression on fear: the paralysis of analysis.

According to Paul Karasik, there are four common investor and physician fears, which can be addressed by financial advisors in the following manner:

  • Fear of making the wrong decision: ameliorated by being a teacher and educator.
  • Fear of change: ameliorated by providing an agenda, outline and/or plan.
  • Fear of giving up control: ameliorated by asking for permission and agreement.
  • Fear of losing self-esteem: ameliorated by serving the client first and communicating that sentiment in a positive manner.

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Psychological Traps

Now, as human beings, our brains are booby-trapped with psychological barriers that stand between making smart financial decisions and making dumb ones. The good news is that once you realize your own mental weaknesses, it’s not impossible to overcome them. 

In fact, Mandi Woodruff, a financial reporter whose work has appeared in Yahoo! Finance, Daily Finance, The Wall Street Journal, The Fiscal Times and the Financial Times among others; related the following mind-traps in a September 2013 essay for the finance vertical Business Insider; as these impediments are now entering the lay-public zeitgeist:

  • Anchoring happens when we place too much emphasis on the first piece of information we receive regarding a given subject. For instance, when shopping for a wedding ring a salesman might tell us to spend three months’ salary. After hearing this, we may feel like we are doing something wrong if we stray from this advice, even though the guideline provided may cause us to spend more than we can afford.
  • Myopia makes it hard for us to imagine what our lives might be like in the future. For example, because we are young, healthy, and in our prime earning years now, it may be hard for us to picture what life will be like when our health depletes and we know longer have the earnings necessary to support our standard of living. This short-sightedness makes it hard to save adequately when we are young, when saving does the most good.
  • Gambler’s fallacy occurs when we subconsciously believe we can use past events to predict the future. It is common for the hottest sector during one calendar year to attract the most investors the following year. Of course, just because an investment did well last year doesn’t mean it will continue to do well this year. In fact, it is more likely to lag the market.
  • Avoidance is simply procrastination. Even though you may only have the opportunity to adjust your health care plan through your employer once per year, researching alternative health plans is too much work and too boring for us to get around to it. Consequently, we stick with a plan that may not be best for us.
  • Loss aversion affected many investors during the stock market crash of 2008. During the crash, many people decided they couldn’t afford to lose more and sold their investments. Of course, this caused the investors to sell at market troughs and miss the quick, dramatic recovery.
  • Overconfident investing happens when we believe we can out-smart other investors via market timing or through quick, frequent trading. Data convincingly shows that people who trade most often under-perform the market by a significant margin over time.
  • Mental accounting takes place when we assign different values to money depending on where we get it from. For instance, even though we may have an aggressive saving goal for the year, it is likely easier for us to save money that we worked for than money that was given to us as a gift.
  • Herd mentality makes it very hard for humans to not take action when everyone around us does. For example, we may hear stories of people making significant profits buying, fixing up, and flipping homes and have the desire to get in on the action, even though we have no experience in real estate.
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DEFINE: “Back-End Ratio” or “Back Ratio”

By Staff Reporters

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Back-End Ratio or Back Ratio

DEFINITION: The sum of your monthly mortgage payment and all other monthly debts (credit cards, car payments, student loans, etc.) divided by your monthly pre-tax income.

Traditionally, lenders wouldn’t give people loans that increased this ratio past 36%, but they often do now.

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How to Reduce Patient Wait Times?

On Patient Satisfaction

[By Dr. David Edward Marcinko MBA MEd]

DEM blue

The traditional linear patient scheduling system is slowly being abandoned by modern medical practitioners; in all venues (medical practices, clinics, hospitals and various other healthcare entities).

Why? Waiting room times are too long!

According to this infographic put together by the folks at evisit.com the amount of time patients spend waiting in your office have a huge effect when it comes to patient satisfaction.

For example, did you know that the national average wait time is currently around 21 minutes!

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reducepatientwaittime_infographic

 [Click to Enlarge]

Patient Scheduling Issues

Most mature doctors follow a linear (series-singular) time allocation strategy for scheduling patients (i.e., every 15 or 20 minutes).  This can create bottlenecks because of emergencies, late patients, traffic jams, absent office personal, paperwork delays, etc.

Therefore, as proposed by colleague Dr. Neal Baum MD, a practicing urologist in New Orleans, one of these three newer scheduling approaches might prove more useful.  

1. Customized Scheduling

The bottleneck problem may be reduced by trying to customize, estimate or project the time needed for the patient’s next office visit. For example:  CPT #99211 (5 minutes), #99212 (10 minutes), #99213 (15 minutes), #99214 (25 minutes), or #99215 (40 minutes). Occasionally, extra time is need, and can be accommodated, if the allocated times are not too tightly scheduled.   

2. Wave Scheduling

Some patient populations do not mind a brief 20-30 minute wait prior to seeing the doctor.  Wave scheduling assumes that no patient will wait longer than this time period, and that for every three patients; two will be on time and one will be late. This model begins by scheduling the three patients on the hour; and works like this. The first patient is seen on schedule, while the second and third wait for a few minutes.  The later two patients are booked at 20 minutes past the hour and one or both may wait a brief time. One patient is scheduled for 40 minutes past the hour. The doctor then has 20 minutes to finish with the last three patients and may then get back on schedule before the end of the hour. 

3. Bundle Scheduling

Bundling involves scheduling like-patient activities in blocks of time to increase efficiency.  For example, schedule minor surgical checkups on Monday morning, immunizations on Tuesday afternoon, and routine physical examinations on Wednesday evening, or make Thursday kid’s day and Friday senior citizens day. Do not be too rigid, but by scheduling similar activities together, assembly-line efficiency is achieved without assembly line mentality, and allows you to develop the most economically profitable operational flow process possible for the office.  

Patient Self Scheduling (Internet Based Access Management)

New software programs, and internet cloud applications, allow patients to schedule their own appointments over the internet. The software allows solo or individual group physicians with a practice to set their own parameters of time, availability and even insurance plans. Through a series of interrogatories, the program confirms each appointment. When the patient arrives, a software tracker communicates with office staff and follows the patients from check-in, to procedures, to checkout.

Today, many hospitals have even abandoned the check-in or admissions, department. It has been replaced by access management systems.

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hospital

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Waiting Room Strategies 

In any potentially detrimental situation, delineate what the staff can do to make it right. A service paradox exists and timely, appropriate action can sometimes build more patient internal satisfaction than if the situation had never occurred.

Take the wait for example. It is not enough to just have policies in place that help prevent a prolonged wait from occurring. There must also be policies in place that ameliorate an adverse situation when it does arise. This can involve placating a patient over long wait, or, reassuring a patient about an empty waiting room.

  • An apology form you and/or the staff might be one technique, “I’m so sorry to keep you waiting. Doctor X and I really try to stay on schedule because we know how valuable your time is.”
  • Offering some refreshments might be another.
  • In extreme cases, giving the patient a beeper and turning them loose until you see them may work.

Many patients will be impressed you have even considered how the wait affects them. Sometimes the above management techniques, if the wait is not too offensive, can actually build more patient satisfaction than just seeing them on time.

Conclusion

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DAILY UPDATE: Ikea & Fidelity Investments with SPX Bank at New High

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Ikea’s revenue fell for the first time in four years after it lowered prices to spark an increase in orders.

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Stocks up

Stocks down

  • Stellantis continued to tumble today, falling another 2.22% after the carmaker announced its CEO will step down in early 2026.
  • A.O. Smith probably doesn’t ring a bell, but there’s a good chance they made the water heater in your basement. Unfortunately, they’re not selling too many these days, and shares sank 6.25% after the company cut its full-year outlook.

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Here’s where the major benchmarks ended:

  • The SPX rose 34.98 points (0.61%) to 5,815.03 to end the week up 1.11%; the $DJI added 409.74 points (0.97%) to 42,863.86 to end the week up 1.21%; and the $COMP gained 60.88 points (0.33%) to 18,342.94 to end the week up 1.13%.
  • The 10-year Treasury note yield (TNX) fell two basis points to 4.07% but rose nine basis points this week.
  • The CBOE Volatility Index® (VIX) slipped to 20.41, still up slightly for the week.

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Fidelity Investments has notified 77,099 people that their personal information was stolen in an August data breach. he mega asset manager has not disclosed what data the digital crooks nabbed, but assured customers that the security snafu “did not involve any access to your Fidelity account(s).” But hey, no worries, the firm claimed no evidence of data misuse.

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Efficient Market Hypothesis – or Perhaps Not?

Contradicting the Hypothesis

[A SPECIAL ME-P REPORT]

[By Timothy J McIntosh MBA CFP® MPH CMP™ [Hon]

[By Dr. David Edward Marcinko MBA MEd CMP™]

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http://www.MarcinkoAssociates.com

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Not everyone believes in the efficient market.  Numerous researchers over the previous decades have found stock market anomalies that indicate a contradiction with the hypothesis.  The search for anomalies is effectively the hunt for market patterns that can be utilized to outperform passive strategies.

white swan

[White Swan of the EMH]

Such stock market anomalies that have been proven to go against the findings of the EMH theory include:

  1. Low Price to Book Effect
  2. January Effect
  3. The Size Effect
  4. Insider Transaction Effect
  5. The Value Line Effect

The Anomalies

All the above anomalies have been proven over time to outperform the market.  For example, the first anomaly listed above is the Low Price to Book Effect.  The first and most discussed study on the performance of low price to book value stocks was by Dr. Eugene Fama and Dr. Kenneth R. French.  The study covered the time period from 1963-1990 and included nearly all the stocks on the NYSE, AMEX and NASDAQ. The stocks were divided into ten subgroups by book/market and were re-ranked annually.

In the study, Fama and French found that the lowest book/market stocks outperformed the highest book/market stocks by a substantial margin (21.4 percent vs. 8 percent).  Remarkably, as they examined each upward decile, performance for that decile was below that of the higher book value decile.  Fama and French also ordered the deciles by beta (measure of systematic risk) and found that the stocks with the lowest book value also had the lowest risk.

What is Value?

Today, most researchers now deem that “value” represents a hazard feature that investors are compensated for over time.  The theory being that value stocks trading at very low price book ratios are inherently risky, thus investors are simply compensated with higher returns in exchange for taking the risk of investing in these value stocks.

The Fama and French research has been confirmed through several additional studies.  In a Forbes Magazine 5/6/96 column titled “Ben Graham was right–again,” author David Dreman published his data from the largest 1500 stocks on Compustat for the 25 years ending 1994. He found that the lowest 20 percent of price/book stocks appreciably outperformed the market.

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Ex-Cathedra black swan

[Ex-Cathedra or Black Swan Event]

Assessment

One item a medical professional should be aware of is the strong paradox of the efficient market theory.   If each investor believes the stock market were efficient, then all investors would give up analyzing and forecasting.  All investors would then accept passive management and invest in index funds.

But, if this were to happen, the market would no longer be efficient because no one would be scrutinizing the markets.  In actuality, the efficient market hypothesis actually depends on active investors attempting to outperform the market through diligent research

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The Author

Timothy J. McIntosh is Chief Investment Officer and founder of SIPCO.  As chairman of the firm’s investment committee, he oversees all aspects of major client accounts and serves as lead portfolio manager for the firm’s equity and bond portfolios. Mr. McIntosh was a Professor of Finance at Eckerd College from 1998 to 2008. He is the author of The Bear Market Survival Guide and the The Sector Strategist.  He is featured in publications like the Wall Street Journal, New York Times, USA Today, Investment Advisor, Fortune, MD News, Tampa Doctor’s Life, and The St. Petersburg Times.  He has been recognized as a Five Star Wealth Manager in Texas Monthly magazine; and continuously named as Medical Economics’ “Best Financial Advisors for Physicians since 2004.  And, he is a contributor to SeekingAlpha.com., a premier website of investment opinion. Mr. McIntosh earned a Bachelor of Science Degree in Economics from Florida State University; Master of Business Administration (M.B.A) degree from the University of Sarasota; Master of Public Health Degree (M.P.H) from the University of South Florida and is a CERTIFIED FINANCIAL PLANNER® practitioner. His previous experience includes employment with Blue Cross/Blue Shield of Florida, Enterprise Leasing Company, and the United States Army Military Intelligence.

Conclusion

So, what about the “January Effect for 2025“?

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Medicare Advantage [Part C] Plans Face Headwinds

By Health Capital Consultants, LLC

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With the annual enrollment period for Medicare Advantage (MA) plans slated to open in less than two months, many MA plans are cutting benefits and provider payments, while approving fewer claims. Further, after a decade of accelerated growth in the MA market, several MA plan executives have announced MA market exits and decreases in membership for the upcoming plan year.

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This Health Capital Topics article discusses recently announced MA market exits, the reasons for those exits, and the current environment in which MA plans are operating. (Read more...)

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Integration as a Competitive Strategy in Healthcare Reform

Understanding Horizontal and Vertical Integration

ENCORE PRESENTATION

[By Robert James Cimasi MHA, AVA, CMP™]

Health Capital Consultants, LLC

St. Louis MO

Several potential benefits are associated with the integration of companies in the same or related industries. These synergistic benefits depend upon the type of companies and their integration strategies, as well as whether the anticipated transaction is a manifestation of horizontal consolidation or vertical integration.

Horizontal consolidation is “the acquisition and consolidation of like organizations or business ventures under a single corporate management, in order to produce synergy, reduce redundancies and duplication of efforts or products, and achieve economies of scale while increasing market share.”

Vertical integration involves the joining of organizations that are fundamentally different in their product and/or services offerings, i.e., “the aggregation of dissimilar but related business units, companies, or organizations under a single ownership or management in order to provide a full range of related products and services.”

Healthcare Locality

As healthcare is essentially a local business, horizontal integration within the local market has been limited by antitrust laws. Therefore, in order to control greater market share, a hospital’s strategy has required vertical integration. Healthcare providers and organizations have placed much emphasis on the benefits of vertical system integration in the last 10 or more years, whereby a single healthcare organization owns all of the elements needed to provide a continuum of care for all the needs of a given patient population. Much of this effect has stemmed from the desire to be able provide a “continuum of care,” i.e., to be able to single source contract for the healthcare needs of a patient population and to profit from implementing preventative healthcare and utilization management measures. The relative economic benefits of this type of vertical integration versus horizontal integration strategies remain the subject of great debate in academia and among the strategic managers of other industries. One lesson that may be drawn from other industries is that neither of these forms of integration is universally applicable or beneficial to every organization and market. There are also great costs to integration, which must be outweighed by the benefits. Each specific benefit should be identified and researched when examining the probable effects of integration, consolidation, mergers or divestitures as a competitive strategy.

Rapid Consolidation Periods

During the rapid consolidation and integration of healthcare providers, insurers, and purchasers, in recent years, there was much discussion of a concept termed “managed competition.” This term appears to have been an outgrowth of the term “managed care” and was viewed by many as the logical result of the integration of healthcare markets nationally. The concept of “managed competition” apparently related to an idealized vision of competition between very large, integrated providers (organized into integrated delivery systems), large, national managed care payors, and purchasing group coalitions that could achieve a balance of power between these interacting groups. However, many believe that the result of such an arrangement would more likely be a reduction in competition between members of each of these three groups and the creation of powerful bureaucratic and intractable organizations. Further, this scenario does not appear to effectively remove any of the existing barriers to competition and therefore doesn’t introduce any additional incentives for innovation to produce value for consumers which, of course, is the “sine qua non” of competition.

Disadvantages

The disadvantages of integration are becoming apparent, including:

  • the loss of autonomy;
  • increased bureaucracy;
  • difficulty in aligning incentives; and
  • other failed expectations.

Many organizations that sought strategic advantage through integration are ending those arrangements and now divesting acquired organizations.

Other Industries

In other industries, specialized providers of goods and services are increasingly able to offer customers a full range of services through affiliation and affinity with other independent specialists, made more seamless through the use of increasingly sophisticated communications and computing technologies. However, this move to “dis-integration” must also be carefully considered if organizations are not to make further costly organizational changes inspired by a rushed judgment of general market trends.

Porter Speaks

Michael Porter (et al.) wrote in the Harvard Business Review that,

In industry after industry, the underlying dynamic is the same: competition compels companies to deliver increasing value to customers. The fundamental driver of this continuous quality improvement and cost reduction is innovation. Without incentives to sustain innovation in health care, short-term cost savings will soon be overwhelmed by the desire to widen access, the growing health needs of an aging population, and the unwillingness of Americans to settle for anything less than the best treatments available. Inevitably, the failure to promote innovation will lead to lower quality or more rationing of care — two equally undesirable results.

Assessment

Therefore, if the emerging healthcare industry is to respond successfully to the Affordable Care Act [ACA] and related market pressures to reduce costs, then the healthcare market must first create incentives for innovation. The barriers to competition cannot include barriers to innovation as many do now. Physicians, nurses, healthcare purchasers, managers, and legislators must ensure innovation takes the forefront of any reform, if it is to be effective.

Conclusion

Your thoughts and comments on this ME-P are appreciated. Feel free to review our top-left column, and top-right sidebar materials, links, URLs and related websites, too. Then, subscribe to the ME-P. It is fast, free and secure.

Speaker: If you need a moderator or speaker for an upcoming event, Dr. David E. Marcinko; MBA – Publisher-in-Chief of the Medical Executive-Post – is available for seminar or speaking engagements. Contact: MarcinkoAdvisors@msn.com

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