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Posted on December 11, 2024 by Dr. David Edward Marcinko MBA MEd CMP™
MEDICAL EXECUTIVE-POST–TODAY’SNEWSLETTERBRIEFING
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Essays, Opinions and Curated News in Health Economics, Investing, Business, Management and Financial Planning for Physician Entrepreneurs and their Savvy Advisors and Consultants
“Serving Almost One Million Doctors, Financial Advisors and Medical Management Consultants Daily“
A Partner of the Institute of Medical Business Advisors , Inc.
According to reporting from the Wall Street Journal, the pharmacy chain Walgreen’s is discussing selling to private equity (PE) firm Sycamore Partners, a deal that could close early next year. This comes following a tumultuous year for the company, which announced it would close 1,200 stores in October and laid off more than 250 employees in November. The PE firm is allegedly considering selling off pieces of the business or working with partners, sources told the Journal. Following the news, Walgreens’s stock jumped 28%, its biggest single-day increase since 1980, according to Yahoo Finance.
Inflation rose 2.7% on an annual basis in November, according to the latest government report on the Consumer Price Index, or CPI. Last month’s CPI was forecast to come in at 2.7%, according to economists surveyed by financial data firm FactSet. The Consumer Price Index, a basket of goods and services typically bought by consumers, tracks the change in those prices over time.
US stocks opened higher on Wednesday as investors digested another month of sticky inflation data that met economists’ expectations and likely pointed to a Federal Reserve interest rate cut next week. The Dow Jones Industrial Average (^DJI) increased about 0.2%, while the S&P 500 (^GSPC) jumped nearly 0.5%. The tech-heavy NASDAQ Composite (^IXIC) also added to across-the-board gains, rising roughly 0.8%.
Swaps (a.k.a. swap agreements) are two-party contracts entered into primarily by institutional investors for periods ranging from a few weeks to more than one year.
In a standard “swap” transaction, two parties agree to exchange the returns (or differentials in rates of return) earned or realized on particular predetermined investments or instruments. The gross returns to be exchanged or “swapped” between the parties are generally calculated with respect to a “notional amount,” i.e., the return on or increase in value of a particular dollar amount invested at a particular interest rate, in a particular foreign currency, or in a “basket” of securities representing a particular index.
Forms of swap agreements include interestrate swaps (under which fixed- or floating-rate interest payments on a specific principal amount are exchanged) and total return swaps (under which one party agrees to pay the other the total return of a defined underlying asset in exchange for fee payments).
In addition, credit default swaps enable an investor to buy/sell protection against a credit event of a specific issuer. The seller of credit protection against a security or basket of securities receives an up-front or periodic payment to compensate against potential default(s).
Think of synthetic equity as a communal garden. You don’t own the plot, and you don’t necessarily have a say in what’s planted, but you’re guaranteed a share of the crops that are harvested.
Synthetic equity is a form of deferred compensation that mirrors some of the benefits of real stock ownership without granting actual shares. It’s a contractual agreement between you and your employer that entitles you to a payout upon certain events—such as an IPO, acquisition, or surpassing earnings milestones.
Companies use synthetic equity plans to motivate their personnel through growth-related incentives. In other words, it grants employees a sense of ownership without issuing shares or altering the business’s ownership structure. As the company succeeds and appreciates in value, so does your potential payout. Although you don’t own actual shares of company stock, you are compensated as if you did.
According to Carla McCabe, synthetic equity programs also have a significant tax advantage to both business owners and the key employees.
For example, when a key employee receives shares under the firm’s synthetic equity program, the IRS does not recognize that receipt as taxable income to the employee until he or she actually receives the money. This usually occurs when the firm is sold or when the employee retires and is cashed out (assuming the employee’s synthetic shares are vested). This is very attractive considering that regular shares are taxed as ordinary income and the employee basically has to pay the associated tax even though he or she didn’t receive any cash.
Of course, all this begs the question: Why would a company offer synthetic equity instead of actual equity?
Market Capitalization: Market capitalization is the market value of all the equity of a company’s common and preferred shares. It is usually estimated by multiplying the stock price by the number of shares for each share class and summing the results.
Market Depth: The degree to which a market can execute large market orders without impacting the price of a security. For example, a “deep” market for a stock will have a sufficient number of both bid and ask orders to keep a big order from significantly moving the security’s price.
Market Maker: A market maker exists to “create a market” for specific company securities by being willing to buy and sell those securities at a specified displayed price and quantity to broker-dealer firms that are members of the exchange. These firms help keep financial markets liquid by making it easier for investors to buy and sell securities–they ensure that there is always someone to buy and sell to at the time of trade.
Market Neutral: Equity market neutral strategies seek to eliminate the risks of the equity market by holding up to 100% of net assets in long equity positions and up to 100% of net assets in short equity positions. These strategies attempt to exploit differences in stock prices by being long and short in stocks within the same sector, industry, market capitalization, etc. If successful, these strategies should generate returns independent of the equity market. Equity market neutral portfolios have two key sources of return:
the Treasury Bill return (the interest on proceeds from short sales held in cash as collateral)
the difference (the “spread”) between the return on the long positions and the return on the short positions. Stock picking, rather than broad market moves, should drive most of a market-neutral strategy’s total return (save for any return from the 100% cash position).
It’s important to point out that here is the risk of theoretical unlimited amount of loss with short selling, (i.e. the price of the short-sold stocks increases; the long position can only go down to $0).
Market Order: An order placed with a bank or brokerage firm to immediately buy or sell a security at the best available current price. May also be referred to as an “unrestricted order.”
Municipal Securities (munis): Debt securities typically issued by or on behalf of U.S. state and local governments, their agencies or authorities to raise money for a variety of public purposes, including financing for state and local governments as well as financing for specific projects and public facilities. In addition to their specific set of issuers, the defining characteristic of munis is their tax status. The interest income earned on most munis is exempt from federal income taxes. Interest payments are also generally exempt from state taxes if the bond owner resides within the state that issued the security. The same rule applies to local taxes.
Another interesting characteristic of munis: Individuals, rather than institutions, make up the largest investor base. In part because of these characteristics, munis tend to have certain performance attributes, including higher after-tax returns than other fixed income securities of comparable maturity and credit quality and low volatility relative to other fixed-income sectors.
The two main types of munis are general obligation bonds (GOs) and revenue bonds. GOs are munis secured by the full faith and credit of the issuer and usually supported by the issuer’s taxing power. Revenue bonds are secured by the charges tied to the use of the facilities financed by the bonds.
Municipal Yield Curve: The yield curve that illustrates the yields of a certain type of municipal security at its various maturities.
Municipal Yield Ratio: A yield ratio most often used to determine the relative value of municipal securities compared with U.S. Treasury securities. The ratio consists of the yield of a municipal security of a certain maturity divided by the yield of a U.S. Treasury security of the same maturity.
Posted on December 5, 2024 by Dr. David Edward Marcinko MBA MEd CMP™
LTC
By Anonymous Insurance Agent
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Some retired people live on a fixed income and many of them live right on the edge of their financial capability. At some time in their life, they may have to make a choice regarding many purchases. In this case, we will illustrate “choice” using a couple’s purchase of Long-Term-Care Insurance [LTCI].
Of course, economics is the study of choice; wants, needs and scarcity, etc. In our case, if they decide to make the purchase they commit to a lifetime of premium payments. The financial tradeoff is this; if they make the commitment to purchase LTCI, they must give up something else.
Example: In order to maintain a monthly premium of $100 ($1,200per year), an elderly patient, retired layman or couple must essentially relegate about $30,000 of financial assets to generate the $100 necessary to make an average premium payment (assumes a 7% rate of return with 4% withdrawal rate) or [4% X $30,000 = $1,200 year]. Thus, if the monthly premium cost is $500 per month, the elder must give up the use of $150,000 of retirement asset just to generate enough cash flow to pay for the LTC insurance.
The married elder couple has to make the decision among lifestyle (dinners, vacations, gifts to children, prescription drugs, medical care or food and shelter) versus paying an insurance premium to provide for nursing home coverage for a need, which may be very real, but will not occur until sometime in the ambiguous future.
And so, when faced with such a tough economics, neither of which delivers peace of mind or a respectable solution; many will simply decide that, in either case, they may already end up impoverished.
Thus, many will often opt for the better lifestyle now … while they can enjoy it … together.
Posted on December 5, 2024 by Dr. David Edward Marcinko MBA MEd CMP™
Beneficial Ownership Information
By Staff Reporters
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Small business owners face severe penalties if they don’t report to the federal government by year’s end. And, thousands of businesses may not realize they are subject to a new reporting process mandated under the Corporate Transparency Act, which went into effect in January 2024. Even lawyers, doctors, financial advisors and accountants are affected; along with “mom and pop”business owners.
For most eligible businesses, the filing deadline is Jan. 1, 2025, according to the U.S. Chamber of Commerce. “Those who fail to file by this deadline — or fail to update this information if needed — could face up to two years imprisonment and fines up to $10,000, in addition to civil penalties of up to $591 per day,” the U.S. Chamber of Commerce website reads.
The law was created “to combat illicit activity including tax fraud, money laundering and financing for terrorism by capturing more ownership information for specific U.S. businesses operating in or accessing the country’s market,” the chamber website explained.
Posted on December 5, 2024 by Dr. David Edward Marcinko MBA MEd CMP™
By Staff Reporters
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2024 LATE YEAR UPDATE
Who sends Form 1099-K?
Payment card companies, payment apps and online marketplaces are required to fill out Form 1099-K and send it to the IRS each year. They must also send a copy to you by January 31st. 2025
1. If you take direct payment by credit or bank card for selling goods or providing services
If your customers or clients pay you directly by credit, debit or gift card, you’ll get a Form 1099-K from your payment processor or payment settlement entity, no matter how many payments you got or how much they were for.
2. If you used a payment app or online marketplace and received a Form 1099-K
A payment app or online marketplace is required to send you a Form 1099-K if the payments you received for goods or services total over $5,000. However, they can send you a Form 1099-K with lower amounts. Whether or not you receive a Form 1099-K, you must still report any income on your tax return.
This includes payments for any:
Goods you sell, including personal items such as clothing or furniture
Services you provide
Property you rent
The payments can be made through any:
Payment app
Online community marketplace
Craft or maker marketplace
Auction site
Car sharing or ride-hailing platform
Ticket exchange or resale site
Crowdfunding platform
Freelance marketplace
If you accept payments on different platforms, you could get more than one Form 1099-K.
Posted on December 4, 2024 by Dr. David Edward Marcinko MBA MEd CMP™
MEDICAL EXECUTIVE-POST–TODAY’SNEWSLETTERBRIEFING
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Essays, Opinions and Curated News in Health Economics, Investing, Business, Management and Financial Planning for Physician Entrepreneurs and their Savvy Advisors and Consultants
“Serving Almost One Million Doctors, Financial Advisors and Medical Management Consultants Daily“
A Partner of the Institute of Medical Business Advisors , Inc.
AT&T climbed 4.58% thanks to a few big announcements during its investor day, including returning over $40 billion to shareholders via dividends and stock buybacks over the next three years.
Palantir popped 6.88% after the US government gave the cybersecurity darling the green light to let its cloud offerings handle classified data. It also helped that Barrons expects the company will be added to the Nasdaq 100 in 2025.
Speaking of Palantir, BigBear.ai soared 28.64% after the server company was touted as the next Palantir by the Economic Times.
Data center company Credo Technology Group skyrocketed 47.89% thanks to an impressive earnings report and a glowing fiscal forecast.
Tesla sank 1.59% after a Delaware judge once again blocked Elon Musk’s $56 billion pay package. The case will go back to court yet again, and may eventually reach the Supreme Court.
The children aren’t alright: Children’s Place crashed 24.15% after the children’s clothing retailer announced its turnaround isn’t going so well.
South Korean stocks took a beating after the country’s president declared martial law. The country’s largest online retailer, Coupang, sank 3.74%, steel manufacturer Posco Holdings dropped 4.32%, and Samsung tumbled 3.71%.
The S&P 500® index (SPX) rose 2.73 points (0.05%) to 6,049.88; the Dow Jones Industrial Average®($DJI) fell 76.47 points (–0.17%) to 44,705.53; and the NASDAQ Composite®($COMP) added 76.96 points (0.40%) to 19,480.91.
The 10-year Treasury note yield added three basis points to 4.22% after falling below 4.17% at one point.
The CBOE Volatility Index®(VIX)held steady at 13.39.
Real Bond Yield: For most bonds and other fixed-income securities, real yield is simply the yield you see listed online or in newspapers minus the premium added to help counteract the effects of inflation. Most “nominal” fixed-income yields include an “inflation premium” that is typically priced into the yields to help offset the effects of inflation.
Real yields, such as those for TIPS, don’t have the inflation premium. As a result, TIPS yields and other real yields are typically lower than most nominal yields
Negative Bond Yield: In a normal bond market environment, bond yields are positive, and bond issuers (including governments) make interest payments to investors who lend them money.
In an abnormal, or negative-yield environment, investors essentially pay the bond issuer to hold their money.
Posted on November 29, 2024 by Dr. David Edward Marcinko MBA MEd CMP™
By Viataliy Katsenelson CFA
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I’m embarking on something I’ve never done before—I’ve enlisted AI to inform, educate, and maybe even entertain you. I took several essays I wrote and asked my bestie AI to transform them into a radio show-style conversation between two hosts. (The AI tool I used is Notebook LM, a product created by Google.) I didn’t write the scripts myself.
Here were my instructions to the AI: “Here’s my essay. I’m taking a break from writing. Educate, inform and entertain my readers.” That’s it. If what you hear doesn’t surprise you—or even shock you to your socks—I don’t know what will. The future is here.
These essays are just as relevant today as when I first wrote them this summer. You can read the original of the first essay here. Be sure to leave your comments about the conversation you’re about to hear, and feel free to share it with friends, enemies, or even random strangers.
In this episode, my AI friends will discuss stock market math, sideways markets, the role of P/E in market cycles, impact of interest rates on P/E, economic analysis, Magnificent Seven stocks, NVIDIA, and a lot more.
Posted on November 27, 2024 by Dr. David Edward Marcinko MBA MEd CMP™
By Staff Reporters
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According to HVL from Morning Brew, a new survey from financial services company Empower ignited a conversation about what monetary success means. Turns out, it depends on who you ask. Boomers believe that success means having an annual salary of about $100,000. Gen Z thinks your mom can’t brag about you to her dentist until you earn $600k/year. On average, respondents said success is making $270,000 annually.
Additionally, less than 40% of respondents said they considered themselves financially successful. Almost 50% don’t believe they will achieve the level of success they desire.
But there was some good news: Forty-three percent said their idea of success didn’t depend on a specific sum of money. And almost 60% said happiness is most important, as long as happiness is defined as “being able to spend money on the things and experiences that bring the most joy.”
Spread duration is a risk measure, expressed in years, that estimates the price sensitivity of a fixed income investment to a 100 basis point change in credit spreads relative to similar-maturity Treasuries.
Spread sectors (aka “spread products,” “spread securities”) in fixed income parlance, are typically non-Treasury securities that usually trade in the fixed income markets at higher yields than same-maturity U.S. Treasury securities. The yield difference between Treasuries and non-Treasuries is called the “spread”), hence the name “spread sectors” for non-Treasuries.
These sectors–such as corporate-issued securities and mortgage-backed securities (MBS–typically trade at higher yields (spreads) than Treasuries because they usually have relatively lower credit quality and more credit / default risk and / or they have more prepayment risk.
Spread widening, tightening are changes in spreads that reflect changes in relative value, with “spread widening” usually indicating relative price depreciation and “spread tightening” indicating relative price appreciation.
In fixed income parlance, spreads are simply measured differences or gaps that exists between two interest rates or yields that are being compared with each other. Spreads typically exist and are measured between fixed income securities of the same credit quality, but different maturities, or of the same maturity, but different credit quality.
Changes in spreads typically reflect changes in relative value, with “spread widening” usually indicating relative price depreciation of the securities whose yields are increasing most, and “spread tightening” indicating relative price appreciation of the securities whose yields are declining most (or remaining relatively fixed while other yields are rising to meet them). Value-oriented investors typically seek to buy when spreads are relatively wide and sell after spreads tighten.
Basis Points are used in financial literature to express values that are carried out to two decimal places (hundredths of a percentage point), particularly ratios, such as yields, fees, and returns. Basis points describe values that are typically on the right side of the decimal point–one basis point equals one one-hundredth of a percentage point (0.01%). So 25 basis points equals 0.25%, and 50 basis points equals 0.50%.
Only when basis points equal or exceed 100 does the value move to the left of the decimal point–100 basis points equals 1.00%, 500 basis points equals 5.00%, etc.
Bid/Ask Spread (also known as bid/offer spread) is the difference between the National Best Bid and the National Best Offer, which represents the implied cost to trade a security.
As compensation for the risk taken, the market maker (or dealer) earns the bid/offer spread in exchange for facilitating the trade. Wider spreads generally indicate higher costs associated with trading the underlying assets in the ETF, hedging costs, inventory management costs, and general market risk.
Posted on November 21, 2024 by Dr. David Edward Marcinko MBA MEd CMP™
By Staff Reporters
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Active investment management strategies are the opposite of passive investment strategies. Active portfolio managers regularly take investment positions that clearly differ from those of the portfolio’s performance benchmark, with the objective of outperforming the benchmark over time.
In addition to the upside potential of outperforming the benchmark, there’s also the downside possibility of under performing the benchmark. In an efficient market, there should be roughly the same magnitude of out performers and under performers for any given benchmark. But, markets are not always efficient.
Active non-transparent investment management strategies are Exchange Traded Funds that are actively managed by a portfolio manager or team of managers without daily disclosure of portfolio holdings. Active transparent strategies are daily disclosures of portfolio holdings as an attribute of traditional index-based Exchange Traded Funds (ETFs). Active transparent exchange traded funds are actively managed by a portfolio manager or team of managers. As with index-based ETFs, their portfolio holdings are disclosed daily.
NOTE: Absolute return as an investment vehicle seeks to make positive returns by employing investment management techniques that differ from traditional mutual funds. Absolute return investment techniques include using short selling, futures, options, derivatives, arbitrage, leverage and unconventional assets.
Posted on November 21, 2024 by Dr. David Edward Marcinko MBA MEd CMP™
MEDICAL EXECUTIVE-POST–TODAY’SNEWSLETTERBRIEFING
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Essays, Opinions and Curated News in Health Economics, Investing, Business, Management and Financial Planning for Physician Entrepreneurs and their Savvy Advisors and Consultants
“Serving Almost One Million Doctors, Financial Advisors and Medical Management Consultants Daily“
A Partner of the Institute of Medical Business Advisors , Inc.
Williams-Sonoma soared 27.50% to a record high after the home goods store beat top and bottom line earnings expectations. Its operating profit margin jumped to 17.8% from 17% last year, and the company said its board greenlit a $1 billion stock buyback plan.
Wix jumped 14.31% on a solid beat for its third quarter. Profit for the software firm reached $0.46 per share, compared to the $0.12 per share it reported last year.
Lemonade rose 16.04% after Morgan Stanley upgraded the insurance company from “underweight” to “equal-weight.” At its investor day, Lemonade unveiled a plan to juice its premiums from $1 billion to $10 billion over the next several years.
STOCKS DOWN
Ford said it was cutting 4,000 jobs in Europe, about 14% of its workforce on the continent, citing weak demand for EVs and competition from Chinese cars. Shares fell 2.90%.
Qualcomm dropped 6.34% after its first Investor Day in three years disappointed. On Tuesday, the chipmaker revealed its big plans to expand from its bread-and-butter smartphone business into making chips for cars and PCs.
Elf sank 2.23% after short seller Carson Block, the founder of Muddy Waters Research, accused the beauty company of inflating revenue.
The S&P 500® index (SPX) stayed mostly flat, up 0.13 points (0.0%) to 5,917.11; the Dow Jones Industrial Average® ($DJI) rose 139.53 points (0.32%) to 43,408.47; and the NASDAQ Composite®($COMP) fell 21.32 points (0.11%) to 18,966.14.
The 10-year Treasury note yield added four basis points to 4.41%.
The CBOE Volatility Index® (VIX) climbed to 17.26, near recent highs.
Stocks sank yesterday on news that Russian President Vladimir Putin lowered the threshold for using nuclear weapons, retaliation against the US for allowing Ukraine to use American-made long-range missiles. The NASDAQ and S&P 500 managed to recover, but the DJIA stayed all day in the red.
Treasury yields dropped as bonds rose.
Gold popped as traders sought safety, as the commodity benefited from the US dollar pulling back from a recent one-year high.
Bitcoin continued to climb slowly but surely, reaching another new all-time high.
Posted on November 20, 2024 by Dr. David Edward Marcinko MBA MEd CMP™
MEDICAL EXECUTIVE-POST–TODAY’SNEWSLETTERBRIEFING
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Essays, Opinions and Curated News in Health Economics, Investing, Business, Management and Financial Planning for Physician Entrepreneurs and their Savvy Advisors and Consultants
“Serving Almost One Million Doctors, Financial Advisors and Medical Management Consultants Daily“
A Partner of the Institute of Medical Business Advisors , Inc.
Talk about cutting it close: Super Micro Computer filed a much-delayed financial plan at the 11th hour, avoiding a delisting from the Nasdaq. Shares soared 31.24%.
AI-enabled robotics company Symbotic surged 27.68% after announcing an impressive beat-and-raise quarter.
MicroStrategy climbed another 11.89% after yesterday’s huge surge. The crypto company announced it will continue to purchase more bitcoin in the weeks ahead.
STOCKS DOWN
More Trump Trade 2.0 developments: The newly formed Department of Government Efficiency is considering creating an app that allows Americans to file their taxes on a phone for free. Intuit sank 5.10%, and H&R Block dropped 8.31% on the news.
Speaking of Trump, platform Bakkt popped then dropped 0.67% following yesterday’s news that Trump Media & Technology Groupmay acquire the company. Trump Media shares fell 8.88%.
KraftHeinz fell 1.58% on a Piper Sandler downgrade due to the company’s slow retail sales and the threat of new government regulations from the Health Department.
Lowe’s may have beaten top and bottom line expectations last quarter, but the home improvement retailer’s forecast of slower sales next year sent the stock falling 4.62%.
Incyte tumbled 8.33% after the pharma company announced it was pausing the Phase 2 trial of its new spontaneous hives treatment.
The S&P 500® index (SPX) was up 23.36 points (0.4%) to 5916.98; the Dow Jones Industrial Average® ($DJI) dipped 120.66 points (0.28%) to 43,268.94; and the NASDAQ Composite®($COMP) rose 195.66 points (1.04%) to 18,987.49.
The 10-year Treasury note yield fell four basis points to 4.38%.
The CBOE Volatility Index® (VIX) eased to 16.04 after an earlier pop above 17.
A Stop order, also known as a “stop-loss order,” a stop order is an order placed with a bank or brokerage firm to either buy or sell a security after it reaches a specified price. Once the price is reached, the stop order becomes a market order, meaning there is no guarantee that an order will be completely filled at the specified stop price.
A Stop-limit order is order placed with a bank or brokerage firm to buy or sell a fixed amount of an investment after it reaches a specified or better price, combining the features of a stop order and a limit order.
A stop-limit order requires investors to set two price points: the first initiates the stop (the order to buy or sell) and the second sets the limit, or price beyond which the investor would not like to buy or sell. The investor also sets a time frame for which the order is valid before being cancelled. If the investor’s price cannot be met during the specified time frame, the order will be cancelled.
Posted on November 19, 2024 by Dr. David Edward Marcinko MBA MEd CMP™
MEDICAL EXECUTIVE-POST–TODAY’SNEWSLETTERBRIEFING
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Essays, Opinions and Curated News in Health Economics, Investing, Business, Management and Financial Planning for Physician Entrepreneurs and their Savvy Advisors and Consultants
“Serving Almost One Million Doctors, Financial Advisors and Medical Management Consultants Daily“
A Partner of the Institute of Medical Business Advisors , Inc.
Stocks ended the day mixed, with the Dow sinking into the red while the S&P 500 and NASDAQ kicked off the week on a positive note thanks to gains from tech stocks.
Oil popped on a double-whammy of news: Long-range, US-made ballistic missiles launched from Ukraine into Russia might disrupt oil supply, while the shutdown of Norway’s Johan Sverdrup oil field due to a power outage will definitelydisrupt oil supply.
Crypto continued its hot streak today: Bitcoin popped back above $90,000, giving other cryptocurrencies a boost.
Bitcoin’s boom has certainly helped MicroStrategy, which announced today that it purchased 51,780 bitcoins for approximately $4.6 billion in cash, or roughly $88,627 per bitcoin, in the last week alone.
The new Trump Trade continues: The president-elect’s selection of Liberty Energy CEO Chris Wright to lead the Department of Energy gave Liberty a 4.85% boost today. Wright is also on the board of nuclear company Oklo, which popped 14.83%.
Netflix disappointed viewers with its glitchy showing of Jake Paul vs. Mike Tyson, but shareholders forgave the company after it announced record viewership of the fight. Shares climbed 2.80%.
CVS Health gained 5.41% on news that it struck a deal with activist investor Glenview Capital Management to add four new seats to its board.
Robinhood jumped 8.29% to a new all-time high thanks to an upgrade from Needham analysts giving the investing app a “buy” rating due to its crypto offerings under a pro-crypto Trump presidency.
Warner Bros. Discovery rose 2.71% on a Wall Street Journal report that it has settled its legal dispute with the NBA, guaranteeing broadcast rights for the next decade.
STOCKS DOWN
Nvidia isn’t often in this section of the newsletter, but the semiconductor leader sank 1.29% today on a report from The Information that its new Blackwell chips are prone to overheating.
Palantir popped after moving over to the Nasdaq last week, but the red-hot software stock dropped 6.86% as investors collected profits.
Redfin may help you buy a house, but the online real estate brokerage is a “sell,” according to Goldman Sachs. The Wall Street firm cited low home sales, low affordability, and low chances of success in a competitive market. Shares fell 4.42%.
Uber dropped 5.35% to a new 52-week low on the threat of Tesla’s robotaxis ruling the road thanks to a Trump administration that seems keen on cutting self-driving regulations.
The SPX was up 23.00 points (0.4%) to 5893.62; the Dow Jones Industrial Average® ($DJI) fell 55.39 points (0.1%) to 43,389.6; and the NASDAQ Composite®($COMP) was up 111.69 points (0.6%) to 18,791.81.
The 10-year Treasury note yield fell one basis point to 4.41%.
Posted on November 18, 2024 by Dr. David Edward Marcinko MBA MEd CMP™
By Vitaliy Katsenelson CFA
For a while in the value investing community the number of positions you held was akin to bragging on your manhood– the fewer positions you owned the more macho an investor you were.
I remember meeting two investors at a value conference. At the time they had both had “walk on water” streaks of returns. One had a seven-stock portfolio, the other held three stocks. Sadly, the financial crisis humbled both – the three-stock guy suffered irreparable losses and went out of business (losing most of his clients’ money). The other, after living through a few incredibly difficult years and an investor exodus, is running a more diversified portfolio today.
Under-diversification is dangerous, because a few mistakes or a visit from Bad Luck may prove to be fatal to the portfolio.
On the other extreme, you have a mutual fund industry where it is common to see portfolios with hundreds of stocks (I am generalizing). There are many reasons for that. Mutual funds have an army of analysts who need to be kept busy; their voices need to be heard; and thus their stock picks need to find their way into the portfolio (there are a lot of internal politics in this portfolio).
These portfolios are run against benchmarks; thus their construction starts to resemble Noah’s Ark, bringing on board a few animals (stocks) from each industry. Also, the size of the fund may limit its ability to buy large positions in small companies.
There are several problems with this approach. First, and this is the important one, it breeds indifference: If a 0.5% position doubles or gets halved, it will have little impact on the portfolio. The second problem is that it is difficult to maintain research on all these positions. Yes, a mutual fund will have an army of analysts following each industry, but the portfolio manager is the one making the final buy and sell decisions. Third, the 75th idea is probably not as good as the 30th, especially in an overvalued market where good ideas are scarce.
Then you have index funds. On the surface they are over-diversified, but they don’t suffer from the over-diversification headaches of managed funds. In fact, index funds are both over-diversified and under-diversified. Let’s take the S&P 500 – the most popular of the bunch. It owns the 500 largest companies in the US. You’d think it was a diversified portfolio, right? Well, kind of. The top eight companies account for more than 25% of the index. Also, the construction of the index favors stocks that are usually more expensive or that have recently appreciated (it is market-cap-weighted); thus you are “diversified” across a lot of overvalued stocks.
If you own hundreds of securities that are exposed to the same idiosyncratic risk, then are you really diversified?
Our portfolio construction process is built from a first-principles perspective. If a Martian visited Earth and decided to try his hand at value investing, knowing nothing about common (usually academic) conventions, how would he construct a portfolio?
We want to have a portfolio where we own not too many stocks, so that every decision we make matters – we have both skin and soul in the game in each decision. But we don’t want to own so few that a small number of stocks slipping on a banana will send us into financial ruin.
In our portfolio construction, we are trying to maximize both our IQ and our EQ (emotional quotient). Too few stocks will decapitate our EQ – we won’t be able to sleep well at night, as the relatively large impact of a low-probability risk could have a devastating impact on the portfolio. I wrote about the importance of good sleep before (link here). It’s something we take seriously at IMA.
Holding too many stocks will result in both a low EQ and low IQ. It is very difficult to follow and understand the drivers of the business of hundreds of stocks, therefore a low IQ about individual positions will eventually lead to lower portfolio EQ. When things turn bad, a constant in investing, you won’t intimately know your portfolio – you’ll be surrounded by a lot of (tiny-position) strangers.
Portfolio construction is a very intimate process. It is unique to one’s EQ and IQ. Our typical portfolios have 20–30 stocks. Our “focused” portfolios have 12–15 stocks (they are designed for clients where we represent only a small part of their total wealth). There is nothing magical about these numbers – they are just the Goldilocks levels for us, for our team and our clients. They allow room for bad luck, but at the same time every decision we make matters.
Now let’s discuss position sizing. We determine position sizing through a well-defined quantitative process. The goals of this process are to achieve the following: Shift the portfolio towards higher-quality companies with higher returns. Take emotion out of the portfolio construction process. And finally, insure healthy diversification.
Our research process is very qualitative: We read annual reports, talk to competitors and ex-employees, build financial models, and debate stocks among ourselves and our research network. In our valuation analysis we try to kill the business – come up with worst-case fair value (where a company slips on multiple bananas) and reasonable fair value.
We also assign a quality rating to each company in the portfolio. Quality is absolute for us – we don’t allow low-quality companies in, no matter how attractive the valuation is (though that doesn’t mean we don’t occasionally misjudge a company’s quality).
The same company, at different stock prices, will merit a higher or lower position size. In other words, if company A is worth (fair value) $100, at $60 it will be a 3% position and at $40 it will be a 5% position. Company B, of a lower quality than A but also worth $100, will be a 2% position at $60 and a 4% position at $40 (I just made up these numbers for illustration purposes).
In other words, if there are two companies that have similar expected returns, but one is of higher quality than the other, our system will automatically allocate a larger percentage of the portfolio to the higher-quality company. If you repeat this exercise on a large number of stocks, you cannot but help to shift your portfolio to higher-quality, higher-return stocks. It’s a system of meritocracy where we marry quality and return.
Let’s talk about diversification. We don’t go out of our way to diversify the portfolio. At least, not in a traditional sense. We are not going to allocate 7% to mining stocks because that is the allocation in the index or they are negatively correlated to soft drink companies. (We don’t own either and are not sure if the above statement is even true, but you get the point.)
We try to assemble a portfolio of high-quality companies that are attractively priced, whose businesses march to different drummers and are not impacted by the same risks. Just as bank robbers rob banks because that is where the money is, value investors gravitate towards sectors where the value is. To keep our excitement (our emotions) in check, and to make sure we are not overexposed to a single industry, we set hard limits of industry exposure. These limits range from 10%–20%. We also set limits of country exposure, ranging from 7%–30% (ex-US).
In portfolio construction, our goal is not to limit the volatility of the portfolio but to reduce true risk – the permanent loss of capital. We are constantly thinking about the types of risks we are taking. Do we have too much exposure to a weaker or stronger dollar? To higher or lower interest rates? Do we have too much exposure to federal government spending? I know, risk is a four-letter word that has lost its meaning. But not to us. Low interest rates may have time-shifted risk into the future, but they haven’t cured it.
Posted on November 16, 2024 by Dr. David Edward Marcinko MBA MEd CMP™
MEDICAL EXECUTIVE-POST–TODAY’SNEWSLETTERBRIEFING
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Essays, Opinions and Curated News in Health Economics, Investing, Business, Management and Financial Planning for Physician Entrepreneurs and their Savvy Advisors and Consultants
“Serving Almost One Million Doctors, Financial Advisors and Medical Management Consultants Daily“
A Partner of the Institute of Medical Business Advisors , Inc.
The Internal Revenue Service (IRS) ruled that employees at an unnamed company can designate a portion of their employer match to student debt repayments or health reimbursement accounts, in addition to their traditional 401(k).
Warren Buffett’s Midas touch gave a boost to Domino’sPizza and PoolCorp. after Berkshire Hathaway announced it has bought shares of both companies. Domino’s popped to start the day but dropped 1.27%, while Pool climbed just 0.54%.
Palantir is jumping ship, moving from the NYSE to the Nasdaq. Shareholders liked the move, pushing the stock up 11.14%.
Bloom Energy…bloomed 59.19% on the news that the renewable energy company reached an agreement to provide utility company American Electric Power with 1 gigawatt worth of fuel cells.
STOCKS DOWN
What Buffett giveth, Buffett taketh away: Apple sank on the news that Berkshire Hathaway has sold shares of the company, and almost completely eliminated its position in UltaBeauty. Apple fell 1.41%, while Ulta Beauty dropped 4.60%.
Shareholders were expecting the worst from Chinese online retailer Alibaba, and although the company actually beat earnings forecasts, it wasn’t enough—shares still sank 2.20%.
Applied Materials tumbled 9.20% after beating both top and bottom line expectations, but shareholders balked at the slowdown in several key businesses.
Here’s where the major stock market benchmarks ended:
The SPX fell 78.55 points (–1.32%) to 5,870.62 to end the week down 2.08%; the Dow Jones Industrial Average® ($DJI) lost 305.87 points (–0.70%) to 43,444.99 to end the week down 1.24%; and the NASDAQ Composite®($COMP) decreased 427.52 points (–2.24%) to 18,680.12 to end the week down 3.15%.
The 10-year Treasury note yield rose one basis point to 4.43% but added 12 basis points for the week. Shorter-term yields rose less.
The CBOE Volatility Index® (VIX) climbed sharply to 16.11 as stocks fell.
The problems at storied bond manager Western Asset Management keep growing. Clients have pulled about $55 billion from Wamco, as the division is known, since mid-August, representing about 15% of its assets. Franklin Templeton, its 77-year-old parent company and one of the largest asset managers in the U.S., recently reported its steepest quarterly outflows on record.
Visualize: How private equity tangled banks in a web of debt, from the Financial Times.
Social Proof is a subtle but powerful reality that having others agree with a decision one makes, gives that person more conviction in the decision, and having others disagree decreases one’s confidence in that decision.
This bias is even more exaggerated when the other parties providing the validating/questioning opinions are perceived to be experts in a relevant field, or are authority figures, like doctors, attorneys, financial advisors, teachers and/or people on television. In many ways, the short term moves in the stock market are the ultimate expression of social proof – the price of a stock one owns going up is proof that a lot of other people agree with the decision to buy, and a dropping stock price means a stock should be sold.
According to colleague Dan Ariely PhD, when these stressors become extreme, it is of paramount importance that all participants in the financial planning and investing process have a clear understanding of what the long-term goals are, and what processes are in place to monitor the progress towards these goals.
Without these mechanisms it is very hard to resist the enormous pressure to follow the crowd; think social media and related influences.
Convertible securities are those that can be converted at the investor’s choice into other investments, normally into shares of the issuer’s underlying common stock. Convertibles are typically issued as bonds or preferred stock.
Convertible bonds, which provide an ongoing stream of income, can be converted into a preset number of shares of the company’s common stock and have a maturity date. Unlike common stock, which pays a variable dividend depending on a corporation’s earnings, convertible preferred stock pays a fixed quarterly dividend. It can be converted into common stock at any time, but often are perpetual.
Corporate securities (corporate bonds and notes) are debt instruments issued by corporations, as distinct from those issued by governments, government agencies, or municipalities.
Corporate securities typically have the following features: 1) they are taxable, 2) they tend to have more credit (default) risk than government or municipal securities, so they tend to have higher yields than comparable-maturity securities in those sectors; and 3) they are traded on major exchanges, with prices published in newspapers.
Posted on November 15, 2024 by Dr. David Edward Marcinko MBA MEd CMP™
MEDICAL EXECUTIVE-POST–TODAY’SNEWSLETTERBRIEFING
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Essays, Opinions and Curated News in Health Economics, Investing, Business, Management and Financial Planning for Physician Entrepreneurs and their Savvy Advisors and Consultants
“Serving Almost One Million Doctors, Financial Advisors and Medical Management Consultants Daily“
A Partner of the Institute of Medical Business Advisors , Inc.
Private equity (PE) dollars have become prominent in the US healthcare industry in recent decades, with PE firms now owning roughly 8% of all private hospitals in the country, according to nonprofit Private Equity Stakeholder Project. But studies have illustrated the financial model’s potential adverse effects, such one published in JAMA in December 2023 that found PE-owned hospitals are 25.4% more likely to report patient complications. Others have found that PE-owned healthcare companies represented more than one-fifth of healthcare company bankruptcies in 2023 and that PE-owned hospitals see their assets drop an average of 24% following an acquisition.
Tapestry, parent company of luxury brands like Coach and Kate Spade, and Capri, parent company of luxury brands like Versace and Jimmy Choo, have announced they will mutually terminate their planned merger. Tapestry popped 12.80%, while Capri rose 4.43%.
Speaking of luxury brands, Burberry soared 18.04% after its CEO announced a turnaround plan designed to halt the company’s recent decline.
Semiconductor maker ASML plummeted last month on a profit warning, but rose 2.90% today on reassurances that it’s still on track to meet its 2030 revenue forecasts.
STOCKS DOWN
Super Micro Computer fell yet another 11.41% as it nears the November 16 deadline to report fiscal year earnings or be delisted from the Nasdaq.
Trump Media & Technology Group dropped 6.71% as investors digested news that company insiders are shedding shares, as well as in reaction to a number of President-elect Trump’s cabinet appointments.
Hims & Hers Health tumbled 24.46% on the news that Amazon is getting into the telehealth game, offering Prime members fixed prices on treatments for hair loss and erectile dysfunction.
Ibotta is a cashback rewards company, but its shareholders may want their cash back. The company beat on top and bottom line estimates last quarter, but the win wasn’t good enough, and shares sank 12.55%.
The S&P 500® index (SPX) fell 36.21 points (–0.60%) to 5,949.17; the Dow Jones Industrial Average® ($DJI) lost 207.33 points (–0.47%) to 43,750.86; and the NASDAQ Composite®($COMP) dropped 123.07 points (–0.64%) to 19,107.65.
The 10-year Treasury note yield fell three basis points to 4.42%.
The CBOE Volatility Index® (VIX) edged up to 14.17.
Posted on November 14, 2024 by Dr. David Edward Marcinko MBA MEd CMP™
MEDICAL EXECUTIVE-POST–TODAY’SNEWSLETTERBRIEFING
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Essays, Opinions and Curated News in Health Economics, Investing, Business, Management and Financial Planning for Physician Entrepreneurs and their Savvy Advisors and Consultants
“Serving Almost One Million Doctors, Financial Advisors and Medical Management Consultants Daily“
A Partner of the Institute of Medical Business Advisors , Inc.
UnitedHealth Group posted nearly $6.1 billion in profit last quarter, edging out Elevance Health with $5.6 billion. Paige Minemyer has more takeaways from third quarter earnings results.
Cigna told investors the company is no longer pursuing a merger with Humana, opting to avoid tricky questions from federal regulators.
EV startup Rivian popped 13.71% after announcing a new $5.8 billion joint venture with Volkswagen to collaborate on a new line of vehicles that will begin rolling off the assembly line in 2027.
Rocket Lab…rocketed 28.44% to a new all-time high after increasing revenue 55% last quarter and announcing the first launch deal for its new Neutron rocket.
CharterCommunications will purchase LibertyBroadband in an all-stock deal. Charter shares rose 3.63% on the news, while Liberty shares sank 5.05%.
Cava reported strong earnings today, including impressive same-store sales growth of 18%. Shares soared on the open, though ended the day up just 1.57%.
Flutter Entertainment, parent company of sports betting app FanDuel, rose 6.89% to hit an all-time high thanks to incredibly strong betting on the NFL last quarter.
STOCKS DOWN
The problems continue at Super Micro Computer, which announced it will need EVEN MORE time to submit its quarterly 10-Q form to the SEC. That’s on top of the delayed filing of its annual 10-K filing from back in June—and if it doesn’t file that by November 16, the stock will be delisted from the Nasdaq. Shares sank 6.31%.
Spirit Airlinesreally may go bankrupt this time. The beleaguered airline has lost hope of merging with FrontierAirlines, so shares plunged 59.32%.
Maplebear, which is the parent company of Instacart, delivered bad news for shareholders: Next quarter will be worse than expected. Shares fell 11.01%.
SoundHoundAI reported record revenue last quarter, but shares plummeted 17.06% after the voice recognition stock also revealed much lower margins.
The S&P 500® index (SPX) rose 1.39 points (0.02%) to 5,985.38; the Dow Jones Industrial Average® ($DJI) added 47.21 points (0.11%) to 43,958.19; and the NASDAQ Composite®($COMP) fell 50.66 points (–0.26%) to 19,230.74.
The 10-year Treasury note yield added two basis points to 4.45%, just below last week’s four-month high.
The CBOE Volatility Index® (VIX) slid to 14.03, down sharply from above 20 early last week.
The Labor Department on Wednesday reported that consumer prices in October rose 2.6% from a year earlier. That marks a pickup in the pace of inflation from September, when prices were up 2.4% on the year.
A digital token inspired by a Shiba Inu dog meme is now worth more than the company that pioneered the assembly line. Yesterday, dogecoin continued its post-election surge to become more valuable than 121-year-old Ford.
Visualize: How private equity tangled banks in a web of debt, from the Financial Times.
Yield: For bonds and other fixed-income securities, yield is a rate of return on those securities. There are several types of yields and yield calculations. “Yield to maturity” is a common calculation for fixed-income securities, which takes into account total annual interest payments, the purchase price, the redemption value, and the amount of time remaining until maturity.
Yield curve: A line graph showing the yields of fixed income securities from a single sector (such as Treasuries or municipals), but from a range of different maturities (typically three months to 30 years), at a single point in time (often at month-, quarter- or year-end). Maturities are plotted on the x-axis of the graph, and yields are plotted on the y-axis. The resulting line is a key bond market benchmark and a leading economic indicator.
Yield to maturity [real yield to maturity]: Yield to maturity is a common performance calculation for fixed-income securities, which takes into account total annual interest payments, the purchase price, the redemption value, and the amount of time remaining until maturity. Real yield to maturity is simply yield to maturity minus any “inflation premium” that had been added/priced in. (See Real yield.)
Yield ratio: A ratio of one yield divided by another. Most often used as a relative value measurement.
Yield spread: A “spread,” in fixed income parlance, is simply a difference. Yield spreads measure yield differences, typically between debt securities with high credit ratings (which typically have lower yields) and those with lower ratings (which typically have higher yields). Yield spreads can also be measured between debt securities with different maturities (shorter-maturity securities typically have lower yields and longer-maturity securities typically have higher yields).
Yield trap: An investment that can lure investors with an attractive yield that may not be fundamentally sustainable, or that may lead to undesired price volatility. Yield traps can lurk in both the equity and fixed income markets. They have a tendency to prey on those who can least afford them, including retirement investors looking for increased relative income and stability, who may have been too focused on their income goals and not enough on stability.
Posted on November 13, 2024 by Dr. David Edward Marcinko MBA MEd CMP™
MEDICAL EXECUTIVE-POST–TODAY’SNEWSLETTERBRIEFING
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Essays, Opinions and Curated News in Health Economics, Investing, Business, Management and Financial Planning for Physician Entrepreneurs and their Savvy Advisors and Consultants
“Serving Almost One Million Doctors, Financial Advisors and Medical Management Consultants Daily“
A Partner of the Institute of Medical Business Advisors , Inc.
The operator of the longest-running money laundering machine in dark web history, Bitcoin Fog, has been sentenced to 12 years and six months in US prison. Roman Sterlingov, 36, a Russian-Swedish national, was also ordered to repay more than half a billion dollars accrued from the cryptocurrency mixing service that he ran for a decade between 2011 and 2021.
r Elliott Investment Management is at it again, this time with a $5 billion stake in industrial conglomerate Honeywell. Shares gained 3.87% on the news.
Shopify announced its ninth consecutive quarter of beating analyst revenue expectations, pushing shares up 21.04%.
Bad news is good news: 40% of the workforce at 23andMe is getting laid off to cut costs. Shareholders cheered, and shares climbed 2.17%.
Where’s the beef? Tyson Foods popped 6.55% after announcing strong earnings thanks to higher beef and chicken prices last quarter.
Sentinel One climbed 2.01% after Deutsche Bank analysts upgraded the cybersecurity stock from “hold” to “buy,” noting it should profit from CrowdStrike’s outage earlier this year.
Holding company IAC is considering a spinoff of home improvement services platform Angi (formerly Angie’s List). Nobody liked that: Shares of IAC fell 12.56%, and Angi plummeted 26.34%.
Payments processor Shift4 Payments sank 5.69% after crushing revenue expectations but missing on earnings.
Mosaic dropped 7.74% thanks to Hurricane Milton, which disrupted the fertilizer company’s business across the board.
The S&P 500® index (SPX) fell 17.36 points (–0.29%) to 5,983.99; the Dow Jones Industrial Average® ($DJI) lost 382.15 points (–0.86%) to 43,910.98; and the NASDAQ Composite®($COMP) decreased 17.36 points (–0.09%) to 19,281.40.
The 10-year Treasury note yield added 12 basis points to 4.43%.
The CBOE Volatility Index® (VIX) fell to 14.81, unusual on a day when stocks lost ground.
Posted on November 12, 2024 by Dr. David Edward Marcinko MBA MEd CMP™
MEDICAL EXECUTIVE-POST–TODAY’SNEWSLETTERBRIEFING
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Essays, Opinions and Curated News in Health Economics, Investing, Business, Management and Financial Planning for Physician Entrepreneurs and their Savvy Advisors and Consultants
“Serving Almost One Million Doctors, Financial Advisors and Medical Management Consultants Daily“
A Partner of the Institute of Medical Business Advisors , Inc.
The SPX rose 5.81 points (0.10%) to 6,001.35; the Dow Jones Industrial Average® ($DJI) added 304.14 points (0.69%) to 44,293.13, a new all-time closing high; and the NASDAQ Composite®($COMP) gained 11.99 points (0.06%) to 19,298.76.
The 10-year Treasury note yield (TNX) didn’t trade today due to the Veterans Day holiday.
The CBOE Volatility Index® (VIX) inched up to 15.05.
Posted on November 11, 2024 by Dr. David Edward Marcinko MBA MEd CMP™
By Health Capital Consultants, LLC
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On September 28th, 2024, California Governor Gavin Newsom vetoed Assembly Bill (AB) 3129, which sought to regulate private equity (PE) transactions involving healthcare organizations by requiring certain transactions to be reviewed by, and to receive approval from, the California Attorney General (AG).
In his veto message, Governor Newsom stated that the state’s Office of Health Care Affordability (OHCA), established in 2022, has the power to review and evaluate healthcare transactions (including the ones at issue in AB 3129). While OHCA does not have the power to block proposed transactions, as the AG would have had under AB 3129, it can refer transactions to the AG for further examination. Put simply, the governor’s veto seems to stem from concern that taking power away from the newly-created OHCA could muddy the waters in healthcare transaction regulation.
While there is a possibility that the California legislature could override Governor Newsom’s veto, it appears unlikely as of the publication of this Alert. However, the overall popularity of this bill in the legislature (as evidenced by the fairly wide margins with which it passed) indicates that PE groups looking to transact in the healthcare space – both in California and across the U.S. – should be on high alert, as regulators are increasingly turning their focus on the role of PE in healthcare.
Derivatives are securities whose performance and/or structure is derived from the performance and/or structure of other assets, interest rates, or indexes. If used moderately and in appropriate situations, derivatives can help stabilize portfolios and/or enhance returns. However, if used in excess and/or in inappropriate circumstances, they can be harmful, potentially causing portfolio instability and/or losses. Derivatives are similar to medicine in their behavior–usually safe when used as directed, potentially toxic when abused.
There are many different types of derivative securities and many different ways to use them. Some derivative securities, such as mortgage-related and other asset-backed securities, are in many respects like any other investment, although they may be more volatile or less liquid than more traditional debt securities.
Futures and options are commonly used for traditional hedging purposes to attempt to protect portfolios from exposure to changing interest rates, securities prices or currency exchange rates, and for cash management purposes as a low-cost method of gaining exposure to a particular securities market without investing directly in those securities.
Certain other derivative securities may be described as structured investments. A structured investment is a security whose value or performance is linked to an underlying index or other security or asset class. Structured investments include collateralized mortgage obligations (CMOs). Structured investments also include securities backed by other types of collateral.
Currency Hedging is a risk-management strategy, as part of a foreign investment strategy, currency hedging is designed to reduce the impact from changes in the relative values of currencies involved in the foreign investment strategy.
In any foreign investment strategy, a significant part of the potential risk and return comes from exposure to relative currency value fluctuations. If exposure to those currency fluctuations is minimized, investors can experience more of a “pure play” exposure to the foreign investments. There is a variety of possible currency hedging strategies, ranging from swaps, options, and spot contracts to simply buying foreign currencies.
Currency Overlay is a financial trading strategy used to separate the management of currency risk from other portfolio strategies. A currency overlay manager can seek to hedge the risk from adverse movements in exchange rates, and/or attempt to profit from tactical currency views.
Posted on November 8, 2024 by Dr. David Edward Marcinko MBA MEd CMP™
MEDICAL EXECUTIVE-POST–TODAY’SNEWSLETTERBRIEFING
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Essays, Opinions and Curated News in Health Economics, Investing, Business, Management and Financial Planning for Physician Entrepreneurs and their Savvy Advisors and Consultants
“Serving Almost One Million Doctors, Financial Advisors and Medical Management Consultants Daily“
A Partner of the Institute of Medical Business Advisors , Inc.
The Federal Reserve cut interest rates by 0.25 percentage points Thursday, the second consecutive cut after a two-year rate-hike run to curb post-pandemic inflation.
Lyft announced impressive earnings results thanks to more commuters using the ride-hailing service, as well as upbeat guidance for the future. Shares rose 22.92%.
Shareholders worried about a housing market slowdown hurting Zillow had nothing to fear: The real estate website crushed earnings estimates, and shares popped 23.77%.
Warner Bros. Discovery enjoyed its biggest single-quarter surge in subscribers ever thanks to streaming service Max, which sent shares soaring 11.81%.
UnderArmour rocketed 23.33% higher after its cost-savings plan paid off last quarter and management guided for a strong quarter ahead.
Planet Fitness surprised shareholders with a solid quarter for the gym giant, as well as forecasts of more growth ahead. Shares climbed 11.26%.
Prison operators GEOGroup and CoreCivic both surged on Trump’s election, and their rally continued today—in-spite of very different paths forward for each stock. GEO Group gained 13.63%, while CoreCivic rose 25.60%.
What’s down
Trump Media & Technology Group was one of the biggest winners on election night, and although the stock soared over the last few days, investors decided to take profits today. Shares sank 22.97%.
Wolfspeed plummeted 39.24% after announcing larger-than-expected losses last quarter, poor forecasts for next quarter, and layoffs to cut costs.
Match Group shareholders were heartbroken to hear that Tinder’s revenue fell last quarter, though strong revenue growth from Hinge helped ease the pain. Shares dropped 17.87%.
Virgin Galactic isn’t just a mean nickname from your high school years—it’s also a space stock that can’t make money to save its life. Shares fell 11.87%.
The S&P 500®index (SPX) rose 44.06 points (0.74%) to 5,973.10; the Dow Jones Industrial Average® ($DJI) fell 0.59 points (0.00%) to 43,729.34; and the NASDAQ Composite®($COMP) gained 285.99 points (1.51%) to 19,269.46.
The 10-year Treasury note yield (TNX) fell nine basis points to 4.34%, with most of the drop coming long before the Fed decision.
The CBOE Volatility Index® (VIX) continued its post-election plunge to 15.21.
Stocks surged and stayed higher all yesterday day on news of Donald Trump’s presidential victory. The Dow rocketed over 1,350 points as soon as markets opened, and all three indexes ended the day at record highs.
Treasuryyields have paralleled Trump’s chances of taking the White House for the last few weeks, and his election sent them soaring to over 4.46% at one point today.
Oil and gold both fell as the dollar rose after Trump’s win. The greenback popped on the promise of Trump’s protectionist tariff policies and the lower likelihood of the Fed cutting interest rates as fast as previously expected.
Bitcoin surged as traders celebrated the beginning of the new, friendlier regulatory environment that Trump promised during his campaign.
Retained Earnings Risk: Profits generated by a company that are not distributed to stockholders as dividends. Instead, they are either reinvested in the business or kept as a reserve for specific objectives, such as paying off debt or purchasing equipment. Retained earnings risks are also called “undistributed profits,” “undistributed earnings,” or “earned surplus.”
Risk-Weighted (or risk-adjusted) Assets: Within the context of measuring the financial stability of banks and other financial institutions, the risk-weighted assets figure is an aggregate of a financial institution’s assets (usually loans to its customers) after the loans have been individually adjusted for their risk. This involves multiplying each loan by a factor that reflects its risk. Low-risk loans are multiplied by a low number, high-risk by high. The aggregate number can then be used to calculate the financial institution’s capital ratio. Lower risk-weighted assets typically result in higher capital ratios, and higher risk-weighted assets usually translate to lower capital ratios.
Sequence-of-Returns Risk: The risk of market conditions impacting the overall returns of an investment portfolio during the period when a retiree is first starting to withdrawal money from investments as income. For example, if a retiree has to withdrawal income from his or her portfolio when market prices are depressed, the portfolio may lose out on the potential returns that income could have made once market prices recovered.
Posted on November 6, 2024 by Dr. David Edward Marcinko MBA MEd CMP™
MEDICAL EXECUTIVE-POST–TODAY’SNEWSLETTERBRIEFING
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Essays, Opinions and Curated News in Health Economics, Investing, Business, Management and Financial Planning for Physician Entrepreneurs and their Savvy Advisors and Consultants
“Serving Almost One Million Doctors, Financial Advisors and Medical Management Consultants Daily“
A Partner of the Institute of Medical Business Advisors , Inc.
First-time homebuyers in 2024 had a median income of $97,000, and their median age was 38. OpenAI and Jeff Bezos invested in Physical Intelligence, a robot startup with the aim of “bringing general-purpose AI into the physical world.”
Cybersecurity darling Palantir soared 23.38% to a record high thanks to strong earnings, high AI demand, and big spending from the Department of Defense.
Astera Labs skyrocketed 37.70% after the semiconductor parts maker (and one of Nvidia’s key suppliers) announced strong earnings.
Crypto stocks had a great day thanks to a widespread cryptocurrency rally. Coinbase rose 4.13%, MicroStrategy gained 2.16%, and RiotPlatforms jumped 8.13%.
Stocks Down
Trump Media & Technology Grouparrested its recent downturn and popped 12% at one point today, but gave all those gains up and ended the day down 1.16%.
You’d think the end of a multi-week labor dispute costing billions of dollars would be a relief for shareholders, but Boeing still sank 2.62% on news that it’s reached an agreement with striking machinists.
It’s a me, lower revenue forecasts! Nintendo fell 1.68% after announcing that sales of its Switch console are starting to sag.
Some of the smaller semiconductor stocks on the market took a beating today. NXP Semiconductor dropped 5.17% after announcing weaker-than-expected Q4 guidance, Lattice Semiconductor tumbled 1.37% after missing on sales forecasts and announcing job cuts, and while Cirrus Logic beat expectations this quarter, it still fell 7.09% on lower forecasts.
The S&P 500®index (SPX) rose 70.07 points (1.23%) to 5,782.76; the Dow Jones Industrial Average® ($DJI) added 427.28 points (1.02%) to 42,221.88; and the NASDAQ Composite®($COMP) increased 259.19 points (1.43%) to 18,439.17.
The 10-year Treasury note yield (TNX) dropped two basis points to 4.29%.
The CBOE Volatility Index® (VIX) slipped to 20.72.
Posted on November 5, 2024 by Dr. David Edward Marcinko MBA MEd CMP™
MEDICAL EXECUTIVE-POST–TODAY’SNEWSLETTERBRIEFING
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Essays, Opinions and Curated News in Health Economics, Investing, Business, Management and Financial Planning for Physician Entrepreneurs and their Savvy Advisors and Consultants
“Serving Almost One Million Doctors, Financial Advisors and Medical Management Consultants Daily“
A Partner of the Institute of Medical Business Advisors , Inc.
Among consideration for CVS is splitting up its assets: CVS Pharmacy, pharmacy benefit managerCVS Caremark, and insurance arm Aetna. The company has reportedly been in talks with bankers about the move, Reuters reported early this month.
Just as Nvidia will replace Intel, Sherwin Williamswill replaceDow Inc. on the Dow (how embarrassing, getting kicked off an index you share a name with). Sherwin Williams popped 4.59%, while Dow Inc. fell 2.08%.
Peloton pedaled 3.59% higher on a double upgrade from Bank of America analysts, who like the bike company’s higher profit outlook and hiring of new CEO Peter Stern from Ford.
Yum! China, the company that operates Pizza Hut and KFC restaurants in China, climbed 7.12% after announcing that new store openings translated into better-than-expected revenue and earnings last quarter.
STOCKS DOWN
Nuclear energy stocks took a big hit today after the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission ruled that Talen Energycould not increase the amount of energy its nuclear plant in Susquehanna, PA, produces in order to power an Amazon data center. Talen fell 2.23%, Vistra Corp sank 3.18%, and Constellation Energy plummeted 12.46%.
Clinical data from a Viking Therapeutics trial shows its weight-loss pill is effective. Shares soared then sank 13.36% as investors took profits.
The S&P 500®index (SPX) dipped 16.11 points (–0.28%) to 5,712.69; the $DJI dropped 257.59 points (–0.61%) to 41,794.60; and the $COMP lost 59.93 points (–0.33%) to 18,179.98.
The 10-year Treasury note yield (TNX) fell five basis points to 4.31%.
The CBOE Volatility Index® (VIX)edged up to 22.11, still below last week’s peaks.
Named for a U.S. economist, the JB Taylor Rule is a mathematical monetary-policy formula that recommends how much a central bank should change its nominal short-term interest rate target (such as the U.S. Federal Reserve’s federal funds rate target) in response to changes in economic conditions, particularly inflation and economic growth. It’s typically viewed as guideline for raising short-term interest rates as inflation and potentially inflationary pressures increase. The rule recommends a relatively high interest rate (“tight” monetary policy) when inflation is above its target or when the economy is above its full employment level, and a relatively low interest rate (“easy” monetary policy) under the opposite conditions.
To illustrate, the monetary policy of the FOMC, changed throughout the 20th century. The period between the 1960s and the 1970s is evaluated by Taylor and others as a period of poor monetary policy; the later years typically characterized as stagflation. The inflation rate was high and increasing, while interest rates were kept low. Since the mid-1970s monetary targets have been used in many countries as a means to target inflation.
However, in the 2000s the actual interest rate in advanced economics, notably in the US, was kept below the value suggested by the Taylor rule.
HFRI: Fund of Funds invests with multiple managers through funds or managed accounts. The strategy designs a diversified portfolio of managers with the objective of significantly lowering the risk (volatility) of investing with an individual manager.
The Fund of Funds manager may allocate funds to numerous managers within a single strategy, or with numerous managers in multiple strategies. The investor has the advantage of diversification among managers and styles with significantly less capital than investing with separate managers.
Posted on November 2, 2024 by Dr. David Edward Marcinko MBA MEd CMP™
MEDICAL EXECUTIVE-POST–TODAY’SNEWSLETTERBRIEFING
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Essays, Opinions and Curated News in Health Economics, Investing, Business, Management and Financial Planning for Physician Entrepreneurs and their Savvy Advisors and Consultants
“Serving Almost One Million Doctors, Financial Advisors and Medical Management Consultants Daily“
A Partner of the Institute of Medical Business Advisors , Inc.
Ford paused production of its F-150 Lightning electric truck from mid-November to early January as demand for the once-coveted EV dwindles.
Peloton named Peter Stern, the co-founder of Apple Fitness+, as its next CEO.
Starbucksis bringing back Sharpied names on cups for the first time in four years as new CEO Brian Niccol tries to shake up the struggling coffee chain.
Boeing offered striking machinists yet another new contract offer, including a 38% pay raise over the next four years. The union will vote on the contract on Monday. Shares climbed 3.54%.
Avis Budget motored 10.92% higher despite missing forecasts on both earnings and revenue. Shareholders celebrated the rental car company’s strong growth expectations from management and took advantage of a cheap valuation.
Globalstar rocketed 32.38% after the satellite communications company announced an expanded deal with Apple.
Charter Communications soared 11.87% after losing fewer subscribers than expected, which is like a back-handed compliment in the investing world.
STOCKS DOWN
Trump Media & Technology Group remains on the roller coaster, falling another 13.53% today as early exit polls show Vice President Kamala Harris with a lead in several key states.
Wayfair may have met earnings expectations last quarter, but the online home goods retailer also lost customers and fulfilled fewer orders. Shares fell 6.26%.
Super Micro Computer continued to sell off after the resignation of its financial auditor, an almost-sure sign of fraud. Shares sank another 10.51%.
The S&P 500®index (SPX) rose 23.35 (0.41%) to 5,728.80 to end the week down 1.37%; the Dow Jones Industrial Average® ($DJI) added 288.73 points (0.69%) to 42,052.19 to end the week down 0.15%; and the NASDAQ Composite®($COMP) gained 144.76 points (0.80%) to 18,239.92 to end the week down 1.50%.
The 10-year Treasury note yield (TNX) climbed eight points to 4.36%, the highest since early July.
The CBOE Volatility Index® (VIX)remained elevated at 21.88.
Posted on November 1, 2024 by Dr. David Edward Marcinko MBA MEd CMP™
MEDICAL EXECUTIVE-POST–TODAY’SNEWSLETTERBRIEFING
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Essays, Opinions and Curated News in Health Economics, Investing, Business, Management and Financial Planning for Physician Entrepreneurs and their Savvy Advisors and Consultants
“Serving Almost One Million Doctors, Financial Advisors and Medical Management Consultants Daily“
A Partner of the Institute of Medical Business Advisors , Inc.
Comcast popped 3.39% on the news that it is exploring a separation of its cable business. The network operator got a boost this quarter from the Olympics, but still lost 365,000 cable TV customers.
Peloton Interactive pedaled 27.82% higher after the bike maker beat earnings expectations and introduced a new CEO.
Carvana accelerated 19.23% on an impressive beat-and-raise earnings report that caps off the car seller’s incredible comeback.
Booking Holdings, owner of Kayak and Priceline, hit a record high after the travel company reported shockingly strong earnings. Shares rose 4.76%
What was down
Trading in shares of Trump Media & Technology Group was halted yet again today after the meme stock sank dramatically to start the day. Shares ended the trading session down 11.72%.
Estee Lauder plummeted 20.84% on a triple whammy of bad news: The cosmetics retailer missed earnings estimates, pulled its forecast, AND cut its dividend. Ouch.
Super Micro Computer continued to tumble today, declining another 11.97% as the fallout from the resignation of its financial auditor raises the threat of the semiconductor stock getting delisted from the Nasdaq.
eBay sank 8.18% after beating earnings expectations but issuing disappointing earnings guidance heading into the holiday season.
The SPX fell 108.22 (–1.86%) to 5,705.45; the Dow Jones Industrial Average® ($DJI) dropped 378.08 points (–0.90%) to 41,763.46; and the NASDAQ Composite®($COMP) lost 512.78 points (–2.76%) to 18,095.15 and has now fallen in two of the last four months.
The 10-year Treasury note yield (TNX) added two basis points to 4.28%.
The VIX rose to 22.6, the highest since October 8.
What Is CREDIT? Credit is a contractual agreement in which a borrower receives a sum of money or something else of value and commits to repaying the lender later, typically with interest. Credit is also the creditworthiness or credit history of an individual or a company. Good credit tells lenders you have a history of reliably repaying what you owe on loans. Establishing good credit is essential to getting a loan.
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Credit Analysis is a form of financial analysis used primarily to determine the financial strength of the issuer of a security, and the ability of that issuer to provide timely payment of interest and principal to investors in the issuer’s debt securities. Credit analysis is typically an important component of security analysis and selection in credit-sensitive bond sectors such as the corporate bond market and the municipal bond market.
Credit Default Swap Index (CDX) is a credit derivative, based on a basket of CDS, which can be used to hedge credit risk or speculate on changes in credit quality.
Credit Default Swaps (CDS) are credit derivative contracts between two counter parties that can be used to hedge credit risk or speculate on changes in the credit quality of a corporation or government entity.
Credit Quality reflects the financial strength of the issuer of a security, and the ability of that issuer to provide timely payment of interest and principal to investors in the issuer’s securities. Common measurements of credit quality include the credit ratings provided by credit rating agencies such as Standard & Poor’s and Moody’s. Credit quality and credit quality perceptions are a key component of the daily market pricing of fixed-income securities, along with maturity, inflation expectations and interest rate levels.
Credit Rating Agency (CRA) is a company that assigns credit ratings for issuers of certain types of debt obligations as well as the debt instruments themselves. In the United States, the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) permits investment banks and broker-dealers to use credit ratings from “Nationally Recognized Statistical Rating Organizations” (NRSRO) for similar purposes. As of January 2012, nine organizations were designated as NRSROs, including the “Big Three” which are Standard and Poor’s, Moody’s Investor Services and Fitch Ratings.
A Credit Rating Downgrade by a credit rating agency (such as Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s or Fitch), of reducing its credit rating for a debt issuer and/or security. This is based on the agency’s evaluation, indicating, to the agency, a decline in the issuer’s financial stability, increasing the possibility of default (defined below). A downgrade should not to be confused with a default; a debt security can be downgraded without defaulting. (And, conversely, a debt issuer can suddenly default without being downgraded first–credit ratings and credit rating agencies are not infallible.)
Credit Ratings are measurements of credit quality provided by credit rating agencies). Those provided by Standard & Poor’s typically are the most widely quoted and distributed, and range from AAA (highest quality; perceived as least likely to default) down to D (in default). Securities and issuers rated AAA to BBB are considered/perceived to be “investment-grade”; those below BBB are considered/perceived to be non-investment-grade or more speculative.
Credit Risk is the risk that the inability or perceived inability of the issuers of debt securities to make interest and principal payments will cause the value of those securities to decrease. Changes in the credit ratings of debt securities could have a similar effect.
Credit Risk Transfer Securities (CRTS) are the unsecured obligations of the GSEs (Government Sponsored Enterprises). Although cash flows are linked to prepays and defaults of the reference mortgage loans, the securities are unsecured loans, backed by general credit rather than by specified assets.
Posted on October 30, 2024 by Dr. David Edward Marcinko MBA MEd CMP™
MEDICAL EXECUTIVE-POST–TODAY’SNEWSLETTERBRIEFING
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Essays, Opinions and Curated News in Health Economics, Investing, Business, Management and Financial Planning for Physician Entrepreneurs and their Savvy Advisors and Consultants
“Serving Almost One Million Doctors, Financial Advisors and Medical Management Consultants Daily“
A Partner of the Institute of Medical Business Advisors , Inc.
Trump Media & Technology Group rocketed higher at the opening bell, prompting the Nasdaq to halt trading on what has quickly become the meme stock du jour. Shares ended the day 8.76% higher.
23andMe clawed 1.86% higher after introducing three new board members about a month after the entire board resigned.
VF Corp, parent company of clothing brands JanSport, Vans, and North Face, surged 27.01% thanks to an impeccable earnings report that revealed its turnaround plans are coming to fruition.
Trex, the stuff your dad built an awesome deck out of, saw sales fall last quarter but still managed to beat earnings expectations. Shares popped 6.19%.
STOCKS DOWN
JetBlue Airways sank 17.08% in spite of reporting a smaller loss than analysts expected. The problem is all the turbulence that lies ahead.
D.R. Horton is the largest homebuilder by market cap, so when it says that 2025 will be a bad year, investors should listen. Shares dropped 7.29% on the news.
Crocs stumbled 19.17% after beating earnings but announcing that its fiscal year would be bogged down by poor sales of its HeyDude shoe brand.
Stanley Black & Decker fell 8.77% after missing on both profits and sales, citing weaker consumer spending.
Xerox plummeted 17.41% after the company that can’t make a printer that works for longer than 3 months without needing a new ink cartridge announced weaker sales than expected.
The S&P 500® index (SPX) rose 9.40(0.16%) to 5,832.92; the Dow Jones Industrial Average® ($DJI) fell 154.52 points (–0.36%) to 42,233.05; and the $COMP added points 145.55 (0.78%) to 18,712.75.
The 10-year Treasury note yield (TNX) finished unchanged at 4.27% after reaching nearly 4.34% earlier today.
Posted on October 29, 2024 by Dr. David Edward Marcinko MBA MEd CMP™
MEDICAL EXECUTIVE-POST–TODAY’SNEWSLETTERBRIEFING
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Essays, Opinions and Curated News in Health Economics, Investing, Business, Management and Financial Planning for Physician Entrepreneurs and their Savvy Advisors and Consultants
“Serving Almost One Million Doctors, Financial Advisors and Medical Management Consultants Daily“
A Partner of the Institute of Medical Business Advisors , Inc.
Healthcare’s future as HSBC Innovation Banking collaborated with LINUS and HLTH to help prepare the healthcare ecosystem for the future. The Health 2035 report goes in depth with discussions between visionaries in the ecosystem and studies of young physicians’ forecasts for what the state of care will be in the year 2035. Download the report.
Trump Media & Technology Group soared 21.59% following a major rally at Madison Square Garden, an appearance on Joe Rogan’s podcast, and rising chances of winning the election. Fun fact: After this latest stock surge, Trump Media is now worth almost as much as social media network X.
Nio surged 10.46% thanks to an upgrade from Macquerie, whose analysts believe that the EV startup could see strong growth from new vehicle launches next year.
Spotify has earned a spot on Wells Fargo’s top pick playlist, with analysts confident the stock could rise over 20%. Shares rose 1.27%.
Lower oil prices hurt energy stock, but are a big boost for companies that spend a lot on fuel. CarnivalCorp rose 4.83%, RoyalCaribbeanCruises climbed 1.35%, and AmericanAirlines popped 3.42%.
Stocks Down
Philips floundered 15.95% after the Dutch consumer goods manufacturer missed on earnings and lowered its full-year forecast.
Boeing continued to fall yet another 2.79%, this time on the news that it is raising $19 billion through a stock offering in the hopes that it fends off a credit rating downgrade.
Oil stocks took a beating thanks to a big decline for crude prices. DiamondbackEnergy fell 3.36%, APACorp. dropped 4.51%, ExxonMobil sank 0.49%, and BP lost 1.48%.
The S&P 500® index (SPX)rose15.40points (0.27%) to 5,823.52; the Dow Jones Industrial Average® ($DJI) added 273.17 points (0.65%) to 42,387.57; and the NASDAQ Composite® ($COMP) gained 48.58 points (0.26%) to 18,567.19.
The 10-year Treasury note yield (TNX) climbed six basis points to 4.29%, the highest close since July 9.
Posted on October 27, 2024 by Dr. David Edward Marcinko MBA MEd CMP™
By Vitaliy Katenselson CFA
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Today, we’re diving into two thought-provoking questions:
1. What’s a famous investment rule I don’t agree with? 2. Which key characteristics should a good investor have?
1. A Famous Investment Rule I Don’t Agree With: “Buy and Hold”
Buy and hold becomes a religion during bull markets. Then, holding a stock because you bought it is often rewarded through higher and higher valuations. There’s a Pavlovian bull market reinforcement – every time you don’t sell (hold) a stock, it goes higher.
Buying is a decision. So is holding, but it should not be a religion but a decision. The value of any company is the present value of its cash flows. When the present value of cash flows (per share) is less than the price of the stock, the stock should not be “held” but sold.
WarrenBuffett is looked upon as the deity of buy and hold.
Look at Coca Cola when it hit $40 in 1999. Its earnings power at the time was about $0.80. It was trading at 50 times earnings. It was significantly overvalued, considering that most of the growth for this company was in the past.
Fast-forward almost a quarter of a century – literally a generation. Today the stock is at $60. It took more than a decade to reclaim its 1999 high. Today, Coke’s earnings power is around $1.50–1.90. Earnings have stagnated for over a decade. If you did not sell the stock in 1999, you collected some dividends, not a lot but some. The stock is still trading at 30–40x earnings. Unless they discover that Coke cures diabetes (not causes it), its earnings will not move much. It’s a mature business with significant health headwinds against it.
“Long-term” and “buy-and-hold” investing are often confused.
People should not own stocks unless they have a long-term time horizon. Long-term investing is an attitude, an analytical approach. When you build a discounted cash flow model, you are looking decades ahead. However, this doesn’t mean that you should stop analyzing the company’s valuation and fundamentals after you buy the stock, as they may change and affect your expected return. After you put in a lot of analytical work and buy the stock, you should not simply switch off your brain and become a mindless buy-and-hold investor.
This doesn’t mean you shouldn’t be patient, which I’ll discuss next; but holding, not selling, a stock is a decision.
2. Key Characteristics of a Good Investor
I’m going to sound a bit more preachy than usual, but it’s very difficult to answer this question in any other way.
You need three Ps – passion, patience, process.
Passion
Investing is not a 9-to-5 job; it’s a 24/7 adventure. Unlike flipping burgers or processing insurance claims, where you can clock in at 9 AM, fall into a stupor, and then reawaken at 5 PM when you clock out.
This should be your test: If you catch yourself treating investing as a 9-to-5 job, then you have little passion for it.
If this is the case, don’t do it (this probably applies to any choice of a profession). You don’t stand a chance against people for whom investing is a never-ending puzzle to be solved on their life’s journey. All of my investment friends are dripping with passion for investing; they are obsessed with it. None of them are in it only for the money.
You won’t last long in this profession if you’re not passionate about stocks. Patience
Investing is like real life – the connection between effort and result is nonlinear. It is very loose.
You may be making all of the right rational decisions: You are buying stocks that lie within your EQ/IQ spectrum, and they are significantly undervalued, but the market simply doesn’t care. It just keeps sending your stocks down. To make things even more frustrating, while your stocks are declining, speculators who treat the stock market as a craps table at Caesars Palace are killing it, making money hand over fist. It’s painful. It is excruciatingly painful if you have the wrong client base.
This is where patience comes in. My father told me this story, which happened right before I was born.
My family lived in Murmansk, a city 125 miles north of the Arctic Circle in northwest Russia. My mom went to give birth to my brothers and me in Saratov, a city in central Russia, about 1200 miles from Murmansk. She wanted to be closer to her parents. My father could not leave work, so he stayed in Murmansk.
A few weeks before I was born, he went to visit his best friend, Alexander. He told him that he was worried about my mom and the birth. His friend told him something that I remember to this day (with a chuckle): “Naum, you did your part; you cannot go back and correct what you did. Now you just have to wait.”
Investing is patience punctuated by decisions.
As the French mathematician Blaise Pascal said, “All of humanity’s problems stem from man’s inability to sit quietly in a room alone.”
One more thought here: I try to take the temperature of my emotions and the mental activity of my brain. When I find myself overheating, with the stock market occupying my entire brain, I forcibly disconnect and unplug myself from it. The quality of my thoughts and decisions when my brain is overheating is likely to be low. So, I go for a walk in the park, read a fiction book, go see a movie, or visit an art museum. Process
Managing someone else’s money is an incredible responsibility, which you may not fully appreciate during bull markets. But sideways and bear markets will remind you quickly.
I don’t want to over-glorify what we do – we are not curing cancer or saving people from burning buildings. But IMA clients entrust us with their life savings and tell me, “Vitaliy, please don’t screw it up.”
My decisions may determine whether our clients get to retire, pay for their medical expenses, or help their kids buy houses.
Staying rational when the world around you is melting up with greed or melting down in fear isn’t a capacity that one accidentally stumbles upon. You engineer it through a series of small, repeatable decisions – your investment process.
Posted on October 25, 2024 by Dr. David Edward Marcinko MBA MEd CMP™
MEDICAL EXECUTIVE-POST–TODAY’SNEWSLETTERBRIEFING
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Essays, Opinions and Curated News in Health Economics, Investing, Business, Management and Financial Planning for Physician Entrepreneurs and their Savvy Advisors and Consultants
“Serving Almost One Million Doctors, Financial Advisors and Medical Management Consultants Daily“
A Partner of the Institute of Medical Business Advisors , Inc.
Applications to MBA programs are up 12% in 2024 after declining for two years, according to the Graduate Management Admission Council, which surveys business school admissions offices.
Apple and Goldman Sachs were ordered to pay $89 million by the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau for failing to address thousands of consumer disputes of Apple Card transactions.
Apple is cutting production of Vision Pro due to slow sales. The tech giant is scaling down production of its $3,500 Vision Pro VR headset and might halt assembly of new ones next month,
UPS delivered a strong earnings report, with revenue beating analyst expectations for the first time in two years. Shares popped 5.28%.
ServiceNow rose 5.41% to a new all-time high thanks to a beat-and-raise third-quarter earnings report powered by higher AI demand for the enterprise software company.
Whirlpool climbed 11.20% after announcing solid earnings and reiterating guidance for the rest of the fiscal year, reassuring worried shareholders.
Molina Healthcare soared 17.67% after beating both top and bottom line estimates in the third quarter, thanks to the health insurer reaping the rewards of higher Medicaid payouts.
STOCKS DOWN
IBM dropped 6.17% on disappointing third-quarter results, missing on both top and bottom line forecasts thanks to lower consulting and infrastructure revenue.
Peloton pedaled higher yesterday after Greenlight Capital’s David Einhorn declared that the company was undervalued while he was pedaling on a Peloton. The stunt only worked for a quick sprint, though, with shares back down 2.07% today.
TKO Group Holdings got hit with a piledriver after the owner of the WWE and UFC announced it is acquiring several entertainment companies, including Professional Bull Riders. Investors bucked shares off 8.69%.
Keurig Dr. Pepper fizzled 4.80% thanks to lower sales last quarter, though the company is trying to bolster revenue by acquiring energy drink maker Ghost.
Air taxi startup Lilium crashed 61.50% on the news that its main subsidiaries have run out of cash and are filing for insolvency.
The S&P 500® index (SPX) rose 12.44 points (0.21%) to 5,809.86; the $DJI fell 140.59 points (–0.33%) to 42,374.36; and the NASDAQ Composite® ($COMP) added 138.83 points (0.76%) to 18,415.49.
The 10-year Treasury note yield fell four basis points to 4.20%.
The CBOE Volatility Index® (VIX) was about flat at 19.18.
Posted on October 24, 2024 by Dr. David Edward Marcinko MBA MEd CMP™
MEDICAL EXECUTIVE-POST–TODAY’SNEWSLETTERBRIEFING
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Essays, Opinions and Curated News in Health Economics, Investing, Business, Management and Financial Planning for Physician Entrepreneurs and their Savvy Advisors and Consultants
“Serving Almost One Million Doctors, Financial Advisors and Medical Management Consultants Daily“
A Partner of the Institute of Medical Business Advisors , Inc.
Quote: “It looks like the global battle against inflation has largely been won, even if price pressures persist in some countries. In most countries, inflation is now hovering close to central bank targets…The decline in inflation without a global recession is a major achievement.”—IMF (CNN Business)
Spirit Airlines is back from the dead, soaring 46.67% on a Wall Street Journal report that it may end up merging with FrontierAirlines after all. Frontier Airlines rose 0.76% on the news.
AT&T climbed 4.65% after it beat earnings expectations in the third quarter, though it missed on revenue.
Starbucks fell hard late yesterday but recovered a bit this afternoon after new CEO Brian Niccol said the coffee chain is suspending its 2025 fiscal outlook. Shares rose 0.86% today.
Coca-Cola fizzled 2.07% after beating both top and bottom line expectations. The problem is that the only reason the soda giant performed well was because it raised prices, while demand for soft drinks slowed.
Enphase Energy plummeted 14.92% after the solar stock missed on both earnings and revenue expectations last quarter.
Boeing is a very familiar name in the “What’s down” section, and its latest earnings report did nothing to help. The manufacturing giant notched a $6 billion loss last quarter, and shares fell 1.76%.
The SPX fell 53.78 points (–0.92%) to 5,797.42; the Dow Jones Industrial Average® ($DJI) lost 409.94 points (–0.96%) to 42,514.95; and the NASDAQ Composite ($COMP) dropped 296.47 points (–1.60%) to 18,276.65.
The 10-year Treasury note yield gained four basis points to 4.24%.
Although some might view a budget as unnecessarily restrictive, sticking to a spending plan can be a useful tool in enhancing the wealth of a medical practice. So, I will emphasize keys to smart budgeting and how to track spending and savings in these tough economic times.
There is an aphorism that suggests, “Money cannot buy happiness.” Well, this may be true enough but there is also a corollary that states, “Having a little sure reduces the unhappiness.”
Unfortunately, today there is more than a little financial unhappiness in all medical specialties. The challenges range from the commoditization of medicine, aging demographics, Medicare reimbursement cutbacks and increased competition to floundering equity markets, the home mortgage crisis, the squeeze on credit and declines in the value of a practice. Few doctors seem immune to this “perfect storm” of economic woes.
Far too many physicians are hurting and it is not limited to above-average earning professionals. However, one can strive to reduce the pain by following some basic budgeting principles. By adhering to these principles, physicians can eliminate the “too many days at the end of the month” syndrome and instead develop a foundation for building real wealth and security, even in difficult economic climates like we face today.
There are three major budget types. A flexible budget is an expenditure cap that adjusts for changes in the volume of expense items. A fixed budget does not. Advancing to the next level of rigor, a zero-based budget starts with essential expenses and adds items until the money is gone. Regardless of type, budgets can be extremely effective if one uses them at home or the office in order to spot money troubles before they develop.
For the purpose of wealth building, doctors may think of this budget as a quantitative expression of an action plan. It is an integral part of the overall cost-control process for the individual, his or her family unit or one’s medical practice.
Preparing a net income statement (lifestyle cash flow budget) is often difficult because many doctors perceive it as punitive. Most doctors do not live a disciplined spending lifestyle and they view a budget as a compromise to it. However, a cash flow budget is designed to provide comfort when there is surplus income that can be diverted for other future needs. For example, if you treat retirement savings as just another periodic bill, you are more likely to save for it.
You may construct a personal cash budget by recording each cash receipt and cash disbursement on a spreadsheet. Only the date, amount and a brief description of the transaction are necessary. The cash budget is a simple tool that even doctors who lack accounting acumen can use. Since it is possible to track the cash-in and cash-out in the same format used for a standard check register, most doctors find that the process takes very little time. Such a budget will provide a helpful look at how well you are staying within available resources for a given period.
We then continue with an analysis of your operating checkbook and a review of various source documents such as one’s tax return, credit card statements, pay stubs and insurance policies. A typical statement will show all cash transactions that occur within one year. It is helpful to establish a monthly equivalent to all items of income and expense. For the purposes of getting started, note items of income and expense by the frequency you are accustomed to receiving or spending them.
What You Should Know About The ‘Action Plan’ Cash Budget
For a medical office, the first operations budget item might be salary for the doctor and staff. Operating assets and other big ticket items come next. Some of our doctors/clients review their office P&L statements monthly, line by line, in an effort to reduce expenses. Then they add back those discretionary business expenses they have some control over.
Now, do you still run out of money before the end of the month? If so, you had better cut back on entertainment, eating dinner out or that fancy, new but unproven piece of medical equipment. This sounds draconian until you remind yourself that your choice is either: live frugally later or live a simpler lifestyle now and invest the difference.
As a young doctor, it may be a difficult trade-off. By mid-life, however, you are staring retirement in the face. That is why the action plan depends on your actions concerning monetary scarcity, a plan that one can implement and measure using simple benchmarks or budgeting ratios. By using these statistics, perhaps on an annual basis, the doctor can spot problems, correct them and continue planning actively toward stated goals like building long-term wealth.
Useful Calculations To Assess Your Budgeting Success
In the past, generic budgeting ratios would emphasize not spending more than 15 to 20 percent of your net salary on food or 8 percent on medical care. Now these estimates have given way to more rigorous numbers. Personal budget ratios, much like medical practice financial ratios, represent comparable benchmarks for parameters such as debt, income growth and net worth. Although these ratios are still broad, the following represent some useful personal budgeting ratios for physicians.
• Basic liquidity ratio = liquid assets / average monthly expenses. Cash-on-hand should approach 12 to 24 months or more in the case of a doctor employed by a financially insecure HMO or fragile medical group practice. Yes, chances are you have heard of the standard notion of setting enough cash aside to cover three months in a rainy day scenario. However, we have decried this older laymen standard for many years in our textbooks, white papers and speaking engagements as being wholly insufficient for the competitively unstable environment of modern healthcare.
• Debt to assets ratio = total debt / total assets. This percentage is high initially but should decrease with age as the doctor approaches a debt-free existence
• Debt to gross income ratio = annual debt repayments / annual gross income. This represents the adequacy of current income for existing debt repayments. Doctors should try to keep this below 20 to 25 percent.
• Debt service ratio = annual debt repayment / annual take-home pay. Physicians should aim to keep this ratio below 25 to 30 percent or face difficulty paying down debt.
• Investment assets to net worth ratio = investment assets / net worth. This budget ratio should increase over time as retirement approaches.
• Savings to income ratio = savings / annual income. This ratio should also increase over time as one retires major obligations like medical school debt, a practice loan or a home mortgage.
• Real growth ratio = (income this year – income last year) / (income last year – inflation rate). This budget ratio should grow faster than the core rate of inflation.
• Growth of net worth ratio = (net worth this year – net worth last year) / net worth last year – inflation rate). Again, this budgeting ratio should stay ahead of inflation.
In other words, these ratios will help answer the question: “How am I doing?”
Pearls For Sticking To A Budget
Far from the burden that most doctors consider it to be, budgeting in one form or another is probably one of the greatest tools for building wealth. However, it is also one of the greatest weaknesses among physicians who tend to live a certain lifestyle.
In fact, we have found that less than one in 10 medical professionals have a personal budget. Fear, or a lack of knowledge, is a major cause of procrastination. Fortunately, the following guidelines assist in reversing this microeconomic disaster.
1. Set reasonable goals and estimate annual income. Do not keep large amounts of cash at home or office. Deposit it in an FDIC insured money-market account for safety. Do not deposit it in a money market mutual fund with net asset value (NAV) that may “break the buck” and fall below the one-dollar level. Track actual bills and expenses.
2. Do not pay bills early, do not have more taxes withheld from your salary than needed and develop spending estimates to pay fixed expenses first. Fixed expenses are usually contractual and usually include housing, utilities, food, Social Security, medical, debt repayments, homeowner’s or renter’s insurance, auto, life and disability insurance, etc. Reduce fixed expenses when possible. Ultimately, all expenses get paid and become variable in the long run.
3. Make it a priority to reduce variable expenses. Variable expenses are not contractual and may include clothing, education, recreational, travel, vacation, gas, cable TV, entertainment, gifts, furnishings, savings, investments, etc. Trim variable expenses by 5 to 20 percent.
4. Use “carve-outs or “set-asides” for big ticket items and differentiate true wants from frivolous needs.
5. Calculate both income and expenses as a percentage of your total budget. Determine if there is a better way to allocate resources. Review the budget on a monthly basis to notice any variance. Determine if the variance was avoidable, unavoidable or a result of inaccurate assumptions. Take corrective action as needed.
6. Know the difference between saving and investing. Savers tend to be risk adverse while investors understand risk and take steps to mitigate it. Watch mutual fund commissions and investment advisory fees, which cut into return-rates. Keep investments simple and diversified (stocks, bonds, cash, index, no-load mutual and exchange traded funds, etc.).
Sooner or later, despite the best of budgeting intentions, something will go awry. A doctor will be terminated or may be the victim of a reduction-in-force (RIF) because of cost containment initiatives.4 A medical practice partnership may dissolve or a local hospital or surgery center may close, hurting your practice and livelihood. Someone may file a malpractice lawsuit against you, a working spouse may be laid off or you may get divorced. Regardless of the cause, budgeting crisis management encompasses two different perspectives: awareness and execution.
First, if you become aware that you may lose your job, the following proactive steps will be helpful to your budget and overall financial condition.
• Decrease retirement contributions to the required minimum for company/practice match. • Place retirement contribution differences in an after-tax emergency fund. • Eliminate unnecessary payroll deductions and deposit the difference to cash. • Replace group term life insurance with personal term or universal life insurance. • Take your old group term life insurance policy with you if possible. • Establish a home equity line of credit to verify employment. • Borrow against your pension plan only as a last resort.
If you have lost your job or your salary has been depressed, negotiate your departure and get an attorney if you believe you lost your position through breach of contract or discrimination. Then execute the following steps to recalculate your budget and boost your wealth rebuilding activities.
• Prioritize fixed monthly bills in the following order: rent or mortgage; car payments; utility bills; minimum credit card payments; and restructured long-term debt.
• Consider liquidating assets to pay off debts in this order: emergency fund, checking accounts, investment accounts or assets held in your children’s names.
• Review insurance coverage and increase deductibles on homeowner’s and automobile insurance for needed cash.
• Then sell appreciated stocks or mutual funds; personal valuables such as furnishings, jewelry and real estate; and finally, assets not in pension or annuities if necessary.
• Keep or rollover any lump sum pension or savings plan distribution directly to a similar savings plan at your new employer, if possible, when you get rehired.
• Apply for unemployment insurance.
• Review your medical insurance and COBRA coverage after a “qualifying event” such as job loss, firing or even after quitting. It is a bit expensive due to a 2 percent administrative fee surcharge but this may be well worth it for those with preexisting conditions or who are otherwise difficult to insure. One may continue COBRA for up to 18 months.
• Consider a high deductible Health Savings Account (HSA), which allows tax-deferred dollars like a medical IRA, for a variety of costs not normally covered under traditional heath insurance plans. Self-employed doctors deduct both the cost of the premiums and the amount contributed to the HSA. Unused funds roll over until the age of 59½, when one can use the money as a supplemental retirement benefit.
• Eliminate unnecessary variable, charitable and/or discretionary expenses, and become very frugal.
Final Notes
The behavioral psychologist, Gene Schmuckler, PhD, MBA, sometimes asks exasperated doctors to recall the story of the old man who spent a day watching his physician son treating HMO patients in the office. The doctor had been working at his usual feverish pace all morning. Although he was working hard, he bitterly complained to his dad that he was not making as much money as he used to make. Finally, the old man interrupted him and said, “Son, why don’t you just treat the sick patients?” The doctor-son looked at his father with an annoyed expression and responded, “Dad, can’t you see, I do not have time to treat just the sick ones.”
Always remember to add a bit of emotional sanity into your budgeting and economic endeavors.
Regardless of one’s age or lifestyle, the insightful doctor realizes that it is never too late to take control of a lost financial destiny through prudent wealth building activities. Personal and practice budgeting is always a good way to start the journey.
NOTE: Dr. Marcinko is a former Certified Financial Planner and current Certified Medical Planner™. He has been a medical management advisor for more than a decade. He is the CEO of http://www.MarcinkoAssociates.com
The authors acknowledge the assistance of Mackenzie H. Marcinko PhD in the preparation of this article.
Posted on October 19, 2024 by Dr. David Edward Marcinko MBA MEd CMP™
MEDICAL EXECUTIVE-POST–TODAY’SNEWSLETTERBRIEFING
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CVS Health may be breaking up…with itself. The board of directors at CVS Health—the parent company of CVS Pharmacy, pharmacy benefit managerCVS Caremark, and insurance unit Aetna—are working with a group of bankers to review the company’s strategy, which according to Reuters, may lead to a split between its pharmacy division and Aetna.
Apple climbed 1.23% on a Bloomberg report that iPhone 16 demand has been shockingly strong in China.
Verizon Communications will purchase $1 billion worth of US Cellular’s wireless spectrum licenses. Verizon rose just 0.34%—but it’s a huge deal for US Cellular, which popped 7.22%, and Telephone and Data Systems, which owns 82% of US Cellular, and soared 15.40%.
Intuitive Surgical rose to a new all-time high, climbing 10.01% on strong earnings powered by sales of its da Vinci device.
Lamb Weston, the company behind the french fries you overindulge in every time you go out to dinner, is being pushed by activist investor Jana Partners toward exploring a sale. Shareholders rejoiced, and the stock rose 10.17%.
Stocks Down
CVS Health sank 5.23% on the news that CEO Karen Lynch will be replaced by David Joyner after three years at the helm of the struggling pharmacy/retailer. Joyner ran the company’s pharmacy service business for the last two years.
WD-40 seems like the staple of all consumer staples, but the company missed on both revenue and earnings estimates last quarter. Shares fell 4.79% on the news.
American Express dropped 3.15% after the credit card company reported a rare miss today, beating bottom-line estimates but missing revenue forecasts last quarter.
MGP Ingredients makes all the booze you drink under different brand names, but people aren’t drinking enough. The beverage maker issued preliminary earnings that included a 24% drop in sales. Shares tanked 24.16%.
Here’s where the major stock market benchmarks ended:
The S&P 500® index (SPX)rose 23.20 points (0.40%) to 5,864.67, a new record high close, to end the week up 0.85%; the Dow Jones Industrial Average® ($DJI) added 36.86 points (0.09%) to 43,275.91, also another record high finish, to end the week up 0.96%; and the $COMP gained 115.94 points (0.63%) to 18,489.55 to end the week up 0.80%.
The 10-year Treasury note yield (TNX) fell two basis points to 4.07%.
The CBOE Volatility Index® (VIX) fell to 18.17, the lowest since September 30.
A new survey results may prompt health systems to second-guess some of their future plans. A recent University of Michigansurvey found 74% of adults ages 50+ have “very little or no trust” in health info generated by AI. Maybe it’s not time to roll out chatbots on patient portals just yet.
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