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BID/ASK SPREAD: Basis Points with Formulas

Posted on November 24, 2024 by Dr. David Edward Marcinko MBA MEd CMP™

By Staff Reporters

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DEFINITIONS

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Basis Points are used in financial literature to express values that are carried out to two decimal places (hundredths of a percentage point), particularly ratios, such as yields, fees, and returns. Basis points describe values that are typically on the right side of the decimal point–one basis point equals one one-hundredth of a percentage point (0.01%). So 25 basis points equals 0.25%, and 50 basis points equals 0.50%.

Only when basis points equal or exceed 100 does the value move to the left of the decimal point–100 basis points equals 1.00%, 500 basis points equals 5.00%, etc.

CITE: https://www.r2library.com/Resource/Title/0826102549

Bid/Ask Spread (also known as bid/offer spread) is the difference between the National Best Bid and the National Best Offer, which represents the implied cost to trade a security.

As compensation for the risk taken, the market maker (or dealer) earns the bid/offer spread in exchange for facilitating the trade. Wider spreads generally indicate higher costs associated with trading the underlying assets in the ETF, hedging costs, inventory management costs, and general market risk.

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Stocks, Treasuries, Gold and Bitcoin

Posted on November 20, 2024 by Dr. David Edward Marcinko MBA MEd CMP™

SPONSOR: http://www.MarcinkoAssociates.com

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Stocks sank yesterday on news that Russian President Vladimir Putin lowered the threshold for using nuclear weapons, retaliation against the US for allowing Ukraine to use American-made long-range missiles. The NASDAQ and S&P 500 managed to recover, but the DJIA stayed all day in the red.
Treasury yields dropped as bonds rose.
Gold popped as traders sought safety, as the commodity benefited from the US dollar pulling back from a recent one-year high.
Bitcoin continued to climb slowly but surely, reaching another new all-time high.

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DAILY UPDATE: United Health, Cigna and Inflation as Stock Markets Flatten

Posted on November 14, 2024 by Dr. David Edward Marcinko MBA MEd CMP™

MEDICAL EXECUTIVE-POST – TODAY’S NEWSLETTER BRIEFING

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Essays, Opinions and Curated News in Health Economics, Investing, Business, Management and Financial Planning for Physician Entrepreneurs and their Savvy Advisors and Consultants

“Serving Almost One Million Doctors, Financial Advisors and Medical Management Consultants Daily“

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UnitedHealth Group posted nearly $6.1 billion in profit last quarter, edging out Elevance Health with $5.6 billion. Paige Minemyer has more takeaways from third quarter earnings results.

Cigna told investors the company is no longer pursuing a merger with Humana, opting to avoid tricky questions from federal regulators.

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STOCKS UP

EV startup Rivian popped 13.71% after announcing a new $5.8 billion joint venture with Volkswagen to collaborate on a new line of vehicles that will begin rolling off the assembly line in 2027.
Rocket Lab…rocketed 28.44% to a new all-time high after increasing revenue 55% last quarter and announcing the first launch deal for its new Neutron rocket.
Charter Communications will purchase Liberty Broadband in an all-stock deal. Charter shares rose 3.63% on the news, while Liberty shares sank 5.05%.
Cava reported strong earnings today, including impressive same-store sales growth of 18%. Shares soared on the open, though ended the day up just 1.57%.
Flutter Entertainment, parent company of sports betting app FanDuel, rose 6.89% to hit an all-time high thanks to incredibly strong betting on the NFL last quarter.

STOCKS DOWN

The problems continue at Super Micro Computer, which announced it will need EVEN MORE time to submit its quarterly 10-Q form to the SEC. That’s on top of the delayed filing of its annual 10-K filing from back in June—and if it doesn’t file that by November 16, the stock will be delisted from the Nasdaq. Shares sank 6.31%.
Spirit Airlines really may go bankrupt this time. The beleaguered airline has lost hope of merging with Frontier Airlines, so shares plunged 59.32%.
Maplebear, which is the parent company of Instacart, delivered bad news for shareholders: Next quarter will be worse than expected. Shares fell 11.01%.
SoundHound AI reported record revenue last quarter, but shares plummeted 17.06% after the voice recognition stock also revealed much lower margins.

CITE: https://tinyurl.com/2h47urt5

Here’s where the major benchmarks ended:

The S&P 500^® index (SPX) rose 1.39 points (0.02%) to 5,985.38; the Dow Jones Industrial Average^® ($DJI) added 47.21 points (0.11%) to 43,958.19; and the NASDAQ Composite^® ($COMP) fell 50.66 points (–0.26%) to 19,230.74.
The 10-year Treasury note yield added two basis points to 4.45%, just below last week’s four-month high.
The CBOE Volatility Index^® (VIX) slid to 14.03, down sharply from above 20 early last week.

CITE: https://tinyurl.com/tj8smmes

The Labor Department on Wednesday reported that consumer prices in October rose 2.6% from a year earlier. That marks a pickup in the pace of inflation from September, when prices were up 2.4% on the year.

A digital token inspired by a Shiba Inu dog meme is now worth more than the company that pioneered the assembly line. Yesterday, dogecoin continued its post-election surge to become more valuable than 121-year-old Ford.

Visualize: How private equity tangled banks in a web of debt, from the Financial Times.

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CURRENCY OPTIONS: Hedging and Overlays

Posted on November 8, 2024 by Dr. David Edward Marcinko MBA MEd CMP™

By Dr. David Edward Marcinko MBA MEd

SPONSOR: http://www.MarcinkoAssociates.com

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Currency Hedging is a risk-management strategy, as part of a foreign investment strategy, currency hedging is designed to reduce the impact from changes in the relative values of currencies involved in the foreign investment strategy.

CITE: https://www.r2library.com/Resource/Title/0826102549

In any foreign investment strategy, a significant part of the potential risk and return comes from exposure to relative currency value fluctuations. If exposure to those currency fluctuations is minimized, investors can experience more of a “pure play” exposure to the foreign investments. There is a variety of possible currency hedging strategies, ranging from swaps, options, and spot contracts to simply buying foreign currencies.

Currency Overlay is a financial trading strategy used to separate the management of currency risk from other portfolio strategies. A currency overlay manager can seek to hedge the risk from adverse movements in exchange rates, and/or attempt to profit from tactical currency views.

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DAILY UPDATE: FOMC Cuts Interest Rates as Stock Markets Rise

Posted on November 8, 2024 by Dr. David Edward Marcinko MBA MEd CMP™

MEDICAL EXECUTIVE-POST – TODAY’S NEWSLETTER BRIEFING

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Essays, Opinions and Curated News in Health Economics, Investing, Business, Management and Financial Planning for Physician Entrepreneurs and their Savvy Advisors and Consultants

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The Federal Reserve cut interest rates by 0.25 percentage points Thursday, the second consecutive cut after a two-year rate-hike run to curb post-pandemic inflation.

CITE: https://www.r2library.com/Resource

What’s up

Lyft announced impressive earnings results thanks to more commuters using the ride-hailing service, as well as upbeat guidance for the future. Shares rose 22.92%.
Shareholders worried about a housing market slowdown hurting Zillow had nothing to fear: The real estate website crushed earnings estimates, and shares popped 23.77%.
Warner Bros. Discovery enjoyed its biggest single-quarter surge in subscribers ever thanks to streaming service Max, which sent shares soaring 11.81%.
Under Armour rocketed 23.33% higher after its cost-savings plan paid off last quarter and management guided for a strong quarter ahead.
Planet Fitness surprised shareholders with a solid quarter for the gym giant, as well as forecasts of more growth ahead. Shares climbed 11.26%.
Prison operators GEO Group and CoreCivic both surged on Trump’s election, and their rally continued today—in-spite of very different paths forward for each stock. GEO Group gained 13.63%, while CoreCivic rose 25.60%.

What’s down

Trump Media & Technology Group was one of the biggest winners on election night, and although the stock soared over the last few days, investors decided to take profits today. Shares sank 22.97%.
Wolfspeed plummeted 39.24% after announcing larger-than-expected losses last quarter, poor forecasts for next quarter, and layoffs to cut costs.
Match Group shareholders were heartbroken to hear that Tinder’s revenue fell last quarter, though strong revenue growth from Hinge helped ease the pain. Shares dropped 17.87%.
Virgin Galactic isn’t just a mean nickname from your high school years—it’s also a space stock that can’t make money to save its life. Shares fell 11.87%.

CITE: https://tinyurl.com/2h47urt5

Here’s where the major benchmarks ended:

The S&P 500^® index (SPX) rose 44.06 points (0.74%) to 5,973.10; the Dow Jones Industrial Average^® ($DJI) fell 0.59 points (0.00%) to 43,729.34; and the NASDAQ Composite^® ($COMP) gained 285.99 points (1.51%) to 19,269.46.
The 10-year Treasury note yield (TNX) fell nine basis points to 4.34%, with most of the drop coming long before the Fed decision.
The CBOE Volatility Index^® (VIX) continued its post-election plunge to 15.21.

CITE: https://tinyurl.com/tj8smmes

Visualize: How private equity tangled banks in a web of debt, from the Financial Times.

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INVESTING NEWS: Stocks, Bonds, Oil, Gold, Bitcoin and Sectors Review Post Election

Posted on November 7, 2024 by Dr. David Edward Marcinko MBA MEd CMP™

By Staff Reporters

SPONSOR: http://www.MarcinkoAssociates.com

BREAKING NEWS!

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Stocks surged and stayed higher all yesterday day on news of Donald Trump’s presidential victory. The Dow rocketed over 1,350 points as soon as markets opened, and all three indexes ended the day at record highs.
Treasury yields have paralleled Trump’s chances of taking the White House for the last few weeks, and his election sent them soaring to over 4.46% at one point today.
Oil and gold both fell as the dollar rose after Trump’s win. The greenback popped on the promise of Trump’s protectionist tariff policies and the lower likelihood of the Fed cutting interest rates as fast as previously expected.
Bitcoin surged as traders celebrated the beginning of the new, friendlier regulatory environment that Trump promised during his campaign.

CITE: https://www.r2library.com/Resource/Title/0826102549

Sector check-up

Financials were the biggest sector mover Wednesday, up 6.16%, hitting a new high.
Industrials were up 3.93% Wednesday, hitting a new high.
Energy was up 3.54% in the session. It’s now 4.28% from the April high.
Real Estate fell 2.64% during trading. It’s now 5.6% from the high.
Consumer Staples fell 1.5%. The sector is 5.76% from the September high.
Utilities fell 1%. It’s now 5.72% from the mid-October high.
Duke Energy was flat over the past three months, and it is 6.3% from the October high.

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DAILY UPDATE: Record Stock Market Blast Off Post Trump Presidential Election

Posted on November 7, 2024 by Dr. David Edward Marcinko MBA MEd CMP™

MEDICAL EXECUTIVE-POST – TODAY’S NEWSLETTER BRIEFING

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Essays, Opinions and Curated News in Health Economics, Investing, Business, Management and Financial Planning for Physician Entrepreneurs and their Savvy Advisors and Consultants

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Stocks Up

One more group of stocks that soared on a Trump election: Big Tech companies with antitrust problems. Another Trump presidency should go a long way toward clearing up the regulatory hurdles many companies have faced recently, which is why Alphabet popped 3.99% and Amazon rose 3.8%.
CVS Health surged 11.33% after meeting revenue forecasts but missing earnings expectations. However, the miss was due to a one-time charge, so shareholders quickly forgave the healthcare retailer.
Planet Fitness gained 6.09% on a surprise bid for bankrupt fitness chain Blink Holdings in an attempt to bolster its own gym business.

Stocks Down

Super Micro Computer had a chance to show the world it wasn’t committing the fraud it has recently been accused of. Instead, the company announced it is still unable to determine when it will file the quarterly report due August 29. Shares crashed 18.05%.
Home builder stocks sank on fears that a Trump presidency will slow the rate of Fed rate cuts, keeping mortgage rates higher for longer. DR Horton fell 3.8%, Lennar dropped 4.84%, Pulte Group lost 3.09%, and Toll Brothers tumbled 1.46%.
Cannabis stocks were betting big on a ballot measure in Florida to allow the sale of recreational marijuana. The initiative’s failure sent shares of Curaleaf plummeting 29.17%, Trulieve Cannabis plunged 38.8%, and Ayr Wellness sank 55.87%.

CITE: https://tinyurl.com/2h47urt5

Here’s where the major benchmarks ended:

The S&P 500^® index (SPX) rose 146.28 points (2.53%) to 5,929.04; the Dow Jones Industrial Average^® ($DJI) added 1,508.05 points (3.57%) to 43,729.93; and the NASDAQ Composite^® ($COMP) gained 544.29 points (2.95%) to 18,983.47—a new closing high.
The 10-year Treasury note yield (TNX) surged 14 basis points to 4.43%, its highest level since July.
The CBOE Volatility Index^® (VIX) fell sharply to 16.3 as election-related uncertainty diminished.

CITE: https://tinyurl.com/tj8smmes

Visualize: How private equity tangled banks in a web of debt, from the Financial Times.

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ECONOMICS: John B. Taylor’s Rule

Posted on November 4, 2024 by Dr. David Edward Marcinko MBA MEd CMP™

By Dr. David Edward Marcinko MBA MEd

SPONSOR: http://www.MarcinkoAssociates.com

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Named for a U.S. economist, the JB Taylor Rule is a mathematical monetary-policy formula that recommends how much a central bank should change its nominal short-term interest rate target (such as the U.S. Federal Reserve’s federal funds rate target) in response to changes in economic conditions, particularly inflation and economic growth. It’s typically viewed as guideline for raising short-term interest rates as inflation and potentially inflationary pressures increase. The rule recommends a relatively high interest rate (“tight” monetary policy) when inflation is above its target or when the economy is above its full employment level, and a relatively low interest rate (“easy” monetary policy) under the opposite conditions.

To illustrate, the monetary policy of the FOMC, changed throughout the 20th century. The period between the 1960s and the 1970s is evaluated by Taylor and others as a period of poor monetary policy; the later years typically characterized as stagflation. The inflation rate was high and increasing, while interest rates were kept low. Since the mid-1970s monetary targets have been used in many countries as a means to target inflation.

However, in the 2000s the actual interest rate in advanced economics, notably in the US, was kept below the value suggested by the Taylor rule.

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DAILY UPDATE: Ford, Peloton and Starbucks as Stocks Climb

Posted on November 2, 2024 by Dr. David Edward Marcinko MBA MEd CMP™

MEDICAL EXECUTIVE-POST – TODAY’S NEWSLETTER BRIEFING

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Essays, Opinions and Curated News in Health Economics, Investing, Business, Management and Financial Planning for Physician Entrepreneurs and their Savvy Advisors and Consultants

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Ford paused production of its F-150 Lightning electric truck from mid-November to early January as demand for the once-coveted EV dwindles.

Peloton named Peter Stern, the co-founder of Apple Fitness+, as its next CEO.

Starbucks is bringing back Sharpied names on cups for the first time in four years as new CEO Brian Niccol tries to shake up the struggling coffee chain.

CITE: https://www.r2library.com/Resource

STOCKS UP

Boeing offered striking machinists yet another new contract offer, including a 38% pay raise over the next four years. The union will vote on the contract on Monday. Shares climbed 3.54%.
Avis Budget motored 10.92% higher despite missing forecasts on both earnings and revenue. Shareholders celebrated the rental car company’s strong growth expectations from management and took advantage of a cheap valuation.
Globalstar rocketed 32.38% after the satellite communications company announced an expanded deal with Apple.
Charter Communications soared 11.87% after losing fewer subscribers than expected, which is like a back-handed compliment in the investing world.

STOCKS DOWN

Trump Media & Technology Group remains on the roller coaster, falling another 13.53% today as early exit polls show Vice President Kamala Harris with a lead in several key states.
Wayfair may have met earnings expectations last quarter, but the online home goods retailer also lost customers and fulfilled fewer orders. Shares fell 6.26%.
Super Micro Computer continued to sell off after the resignation of its financial auditor, an almost-sure sign of fraud. Shares sank another 10.51%.

CITE: https://tinyurl.com/2h47urt5

The S&P 500^® index (SPX) rose 23.35 (0.41%) to 5,728.80 to end the week down 1.37%; the Dow Jones Industrial Average^® ($DJI) added 288.73 points (0.69%) to 42,052.19 to end the week down 0.15%; and the NASDAQ Composite^®($COMP) gained 144.76 points (0.80%) to 18,239.92 to end the week down 1.50%.
The 10-year Treasury note yield (TNX) climbed eight points to 4.36%, the highest since early July.
The CBOE Volatility Index^® (VIX)remained elevated at 21.88.

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Visualize: How private equity tangled banks in a web of debt, from the Financial Times.

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DAILY UPDATE: Inflation Calm but Stock Markets Down

Posted on October 24, 2024 by Dr. David Edward Marcinko MBA MEd CMP™

MEDICAL EXECUTIVE-POST – TODAY’S NEWSLETTER BRIEFING

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Essays, Opinions and Curated News in Health Economics, Investing, Business, Management and Financial Planning for Physician Entrepreneurs and their Savvy Advisors and Consultants

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Quote: “It looks like the global battle against inflation has largely been won, even if price pressures persist in some countries. In most countries, inflation is now hovering close to central bank targets…The decline in inflation without a global recession is a major achievement.”—IMF (CNN Business)

CITE: https://www.r2library.com/Resource

STOCKS UP

Spirit Airlines is back from the dead, soaring 46.67% on a Wall Street Journal report that it may end up merging with Frontier Airlines after all. Frontier Airlines rose 0.76% on the news.
AT&T climbed 4.65% after it beat earnings expectations in the third quarter, though it missed on revenue.
Starbucks fell hard late yesterday but recovered a bit this afternoon after new CEO Brian Niccol said the coffee chain is suspending its 2025 fiscal outlook. Shares rose 0.86% today.
Stride Technology sprinted 39.11% higher after the education technology company absolutely crushed earnings expectations.

STOCKS DOWN

Coca-Cola fizzled 2.07% after beating both top and bottom line expectations. The problem is that the only reason the soda giant performed well was because it raised prices, while demand for soft drinks slowed.
Enphase Energy plummeted 14.92% after the solar stock missed on both earnings and revenue expectations last quarter.
Boeing is a very familiar name in the “What’s down” section, and its latest earnings report did nothing to help. The manufacturing giant notched a $6 billion loss last quarter, and shares fell 1.76%.

CITE: https://tinyurl.com/2h47urt5

Here’s where the major benchmarks ended:

The SPX fell 53.78 points (–0.92%) to 5,797.42; the Dow Jones Industrial Average^® ($DJI) lost 409.94 points (–0.96%) to 42,514.95; and the NASDAQ Composite ($COMP) dropped 296.47 points (–1.60%) to 18,276.65.
The 10-year Treasury note yield gained four basis points to 4.24%.
The CBOE Volatility Index^® (VIX) jumped to 19.37.

CITE: https://tinyurl.com/tj8smmes

Visualize: How private equity tangled banks in a web of debt, from the Financial Times.

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2024 NOBEL PRIZE ECONOMICS: Daron Acemoglu, James Robinson and Simon Johnson

Posted on October 17, 2024 by Dr. David Edward Marcinko MBA MEd CMP™

By Staff Reporters

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Authors of the seminal textbook Why Nations Fail, Daron Acemoglu, James Robinson, and former International Monetary Fund chief economist Simon Johnson will split the roughly $1 million cash prize for their research, which found a link between a country’s prosperity and the institutions it established during European colonization.

CITE: https://www.r2library.com/Resource/Title/0826102549

According to the award-winning research:

Places developed either “inclusive” or “extractive” institutions based on population density. The former allowed for inclusive governance (i.e., democracy), while the latter extracted resources to benefit a small group of elites.
Countries that developed inclusive institutions have experienced long-term prosperity; those with exclusive institutions haven’t. “Broadly speaking, the work that we have done favors democracy,” Acemoglu said.

Eample: In the twin cities of Nogales, on the US-Mexico border, the north and south parts of the transborder city have the same climate and the same resources, but the section in the US is far richer because of the country’s institutions, according to the researchers.

Critics. Some academics argue the Nobel winners’ premise ignores the effects of culture on prosperity. Others point to an irrefutable counterexample: China continues to experience explosive growth despite having an autocratic government.

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DAILY UPDATE: Goldman Sachs, Starbucks and Walgreens as Stock Markets Boost Up

Posted on October 17, 2024 by Dr. David Edward Marcinko MBA MEd CMP™

MEDICAL EXECUTIVE-POST – TODAY’S NEWSLETTER BRIEFING

Essays, Opinions and Curated News in Health Economics, Investing, Business, Management and Financial Planning for Physician Entrepreneurs and their Savvy Advisors and Consultants

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Goldman Sachs’ profit jumped 45% in monster quarter. The investment bank made $3 billion of profit on revenue of nearly $13 billion in Q3, it reported yesterday, surpassing even the rosiest of expectations. Bloomberg reported that it was the best quarter ever for Goldman’s stock trading unit, putting the group on track for a record year.

Walgreens said it will close 1,200 US stores, about one in seven locations, by 2027. The retailer will shutter 500 stores by the end of next year.

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UP STOCKS

Trump Media & Technology Group has had a wild week, falling nearly 10% yesterday before trading of the stock was halted, then popping 15.52% today. Election hype, a Trump-sponsored cryptocurrency, and Truth+, a new streaming service, are keeping shareholders on their toes.

Abbott Laboratories rose 1.53% thanks to a stronger-than-expected earnings report powered by the company’s impressive medical device sales.
Aspen Aerogels makes insulating material for batteries, which sounds boring to everyone but the Department of Energy. The DOE signed a conditional commitment to loan the company up to $670 million, sending shares 13.24% higher.

DOWN STOCKS

Novavax plummeted 19.44% after the FDA put a hold on the pharma company’s flu and Covid vaccine combination.
ASML Holding NV dropped another 6.42% today as the semiconductor selloff continues.
Interactive Brokers enjoyed higher revenue and more trading from its user base last quarter, but earnings per share came in under expectations, and shares sank 4.05%.

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Here’s where the major benchmarks ended:

The SPX rose27.21points (0.47%) to 5,842.47; the Dow Jones Industrial Average^® ($DJI) added 337.28 points (0.79%) to 43,077.70; and the NASDAQ Composite^®($COMP) increased 51.49 points (0.28%) to 18.367.08.
The 10-year Treasury note yield (TNX) fell two basis points to just below 4.02%, the lowest close since October 4.
The CBOE Volatility Index^®(VIX) dropped moderately to 19.58, still elevated considering stock market strength.

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Starbucks is reportedly pivoting from discounts and promotions to refocus on selling premium coffee and seasonal drinks

Visualize: How private equity tangled banks in a web of debt, from the Financial Times.

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DAILY UPDATE: Life Span, Earnings Reports, Oil, Gold and Bitcoin with Closing Stock Highs

Posted on October 15, 2024 by Dr. David Edward Marcinko MBA MEd CMP™

MEDICAL EXECUTIVE-POST – TODAY’S NEWSLETTER BRIEFING

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Essays, Opinions and Curated News in Health Economics, Investing, Business, Management and Financial Planning for Physician Entrepreneurs and their Savvy Advisors and Consultants

“Serving Almost One Million Doctors, Financial Advisors and Medical Management Consultants Daily“

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Maximum lifespans. The upper limit of human life expectancy is leveling out, according to a new study published in the journal Nature Aging. Back in 1990, life-extending tech and health measures were increasing the average global lifespan by about 2.5 years per decade, but that dropped to 1.5 years per decade in the 2010s and closer to zero in the US, where there are more drug overdoses, shootings, and medical care inequities.

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Stocks kicked off the first full week of earnings season at full throttle. The S&P 500 rose to a new intraday record, the Dow closed above 43,000 for the first time ever, and the NASDAQ climbed steadily throughout the trading session.
Bitcoin soared on the news of China’s additional stimulus spending that broke this weekend. Although the Chinese government’s plans are light on details at the moment, the promise of more support for the world’s second largest economy was enough to get crypto traders hyped.

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Interestingly enough, those same promises of Chinese stimulus sent oil tumbling to start the day. The selling was exacerbated by OPEC’s announcement that crude demand will fall lower than expected in 2024 and 2025.
Gold sank a hair today as traders weighed Chinese stimulus against a stronger dollar.

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Here’s where the major benchmarks ended:

The S&P 500^® index (SPX) rose44.82points (0.77%) to 5,859.85, a new closing high; the Dow Jones Industrial Average^® ($DJI) increased 201.36 points (0.47%) to 43,065.22, also a new closing high; and the NASDAQ Composite^® ($COMP) added 159.74 points (0.87%) to 18,502.69.
The 10-year Treasury note yield (TNX) did not trade today due to the holiday.
The CBOE Volatility Index^®(VIX) slipped to 19.9, its first drop below 20 since October 4.

A slate of corporate earnings reports coming from Goldman Sachs, Bank of America, and Citigroup in the financial sector, along with healthcare giants Johnson & Johnson, Walgreens, and UnitedHealth. And throughout the week: Morgan Stanley will report on Wednesday, Netflix reports on Thursday, and Procter & Gamble and American Express drop their financials on Friday. It’ll pose a big test for the stock market’s $8 trillion rally this year.

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COLUMBUS DAY 2024: Stocks, Bonds, Gold & Oil

Posted on October 14, 2024 by Dr. David Edward Marcinko MBA MEd CMP™

By Staff Reporters

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U.S. stock markets, including the New York Stock Exchange and the NASDAQ remain open and follow a regular schedule today.

The bond markets will be closed, however.

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Stocks ended last week on a high note, closing out their fifth straight week of gains. The Dow was pushed to yet another new all-time high by strong earnings from JPMorgan, while the S&P 500 was in the green and rose to its own record close, and the NASDAQ clawed its way out of the red by early Friday afternoon.
Bond yields took a breather, falling below 4.1% thanks to a better-than-expected PPI report that helped offset inflation fears that had re-arisen after a worse-than-expected CPI report.
Gold rose as well on PPI news, since the data pointed to a better chance of more rate cuts ahead.
Oil fell a bit but gained over the last two weeks on geopolitical tensions and destruction in the Gulf of Mexico following the two major hurricanes.

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DAILY UPDATE: PayPal, IRS, Flood Insurance and the US Hiring Pace as Stocks Roar Ahead

Posted on October 5, 2024 by Dr. David Edward Marcinko MBA MEd CMP™

MEDICAL EXECUTIVE-POST – TODAY’S NEWSLETTER BRIEFING

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Essays, Opinions and Curated News in Health Economics, Investing, Business, Management and Financial Planning for Physician Entrepreneurs and their Savvy Advisors and Consultants

“Serving Almost One Million Doctors, Financial Advisors and Medical Management Consultants Daily“

A Partner of the Institute of Medical Business Advisors , Inc.

http://www.MedicalBusinessAdvisors.com

SPONSORED BY: Marcinko & Associates, Inc.

***

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PayPal completed its first transaction using its proprietary stablecoin to pay an invoice to Ernst & Young. It’s a milestone for the payments company’s advance into cryptocurrency.

The free IRS tax filing software, which was piloted in 12 states for the 2024 tax season, will be available in 24 states for 2025.

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Stocks Up

Your loss is our gain: Shares of airline stocks popped on the news of Spirit’s problems. Delta Air Lines ascended 3.84%, United Airlines climbed 6.47%, and Frontier Group Holdings soared 16.43%.
Albemarle popped 8.25% on the rumor that mining behemoth Rio Tinto may try to make an acquisition of the lithium miner. Other potential takeover targets rose as well, including Arcadium (up 10%) and SQM (up 3%).
Abercrombie & Fitch rose 9.10% thanks to an upgrade from JP Morgan analysts, who are bullish about the fashion retailer’s recent momentum.
Ubisoft Entertainment skyrocketed 29.87% on the news that the video game maker’s parent company and founders are considering a buyout.

Stocks down

Rivian Automotive tumbled 3.15% after the EV startup cut its 2024 production forecast and missed on Q3 deliveries.
Homebuilder stocks sank on today’s strong jobs report, which propelled treasury yields higher, which means that mortgage rates aren’t getting any lower. D.R. Horton dropped 2.91%, Lennar fell 2.52%, and Toll Brothers lost 2.57%.
Transportation stocks fell thanks to an agreement between port owners and longshoremen to put the recent strike on pause. Moller-Maersk lost 5.37%, while Zim Integrated Shipping Services stumbled 12.55%.

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Here’s where the major stock benchmarks ended:

The S&P 500^® index (SPX) climbed 51.13 points (0.9%) to 5,751.07 up 0.22% for the week;the Dow Jones Industrial Average^® ($DJI) added 341.16 points (0.81%) to 42,352.75, up 0.09% for the week; and the NASDAQ Composite^® ($COMP) rose 219.37 points (1.22%) to 18,137.85, up 0.1% for the week.
The 10-year Treasury note yield (TNX) soared 13 basis points to 3.98%, finishing the week up 23 basis points. The 2-year yield rose 37 basis points this week.
The CBOE Volatility Index^® (VIX)fell to 18.58 but remains elevated from last month’s lows, likely on geopolitical concerns.

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Only 2% of the homes hit by Hurricane Helene in Georgia, North Carolina, and South Carolina had a policy protecting them against catastrophic flooding, according to an analysis by Politico and E&E News.

The US Hiring Pace picked up strongly in September and the unemployment rate ticked down to 4.1%, signs the U.S. economy had continued momentum in a month the Federal Reserve delivered its first interest-rate cut in four years. U.S. employers added 254,000 jobs last month, the Labor Department said Friday.

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ECONOMICS: Price Gouging VS. Supply & Demand

Posted on October 3, 2024 by Dr. David Edward Marcinko MBA MEd CMP™

NEBULOUS DEFINITIONS

By Staff Reporters

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The simplest model of a market involves two things, supply and demand, and the price and quantity of the goods sold in the market are a function of both. When a natural disaster hits like Hurricane Helene, the immediate effect can be two-fold. In such situations, it is not unusual that the demand for certain products may increase. For example, if everyone is trying to leave the area, demand for gas may rise. The other effect is that supply for certain products may decrease. And, it may be more costly to transport gas in areas affected by a natural disaster, thus decreasing the supply of gas and in turn, increasing the price.

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When supply decreases, the price of the good increases. And when demand increases, again the price of the good increases. So we would predict that the market price of gas, for example, would increase in areas recently affected by a hurricane. And in fact we do see this.

Price-gouging occurs when companies raise prices to unfair levels. There is no rule for what qualifies as price-gouging, but it is not an uncommon occurrence. For example in medicine, EpiPen costs is a current example of price increases that have been labeled unfair.

Note: An epinephrine auto-injector (or adrenaline auto-injector, also known by the trade mark EpiPen) is a medical device for injecting a measured dose or doses of epinephrine (adrenaline) by means of auto-injector technology. It is most often used for the treatment of anaphylaxis. The first epinephrine auto-injector was brought to market in 1983.

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TROPICAL STORM HELENE: And “Stonk” Stocks

Posted on September 27, 2024 by Dr. David Edward Marcinko MBA MEd CMP™

BREAKING NEWS

By Staff Reporters

Tropical Storm Helene made landfall in Florida last night as a Category 4 hurricane, the strongest to ever hit the state’s Big Bend. It is a huge and powerful storm—with a wind field that could span the distance between tjhe State of Maryland/Washington, DC, and Indianapolis/Chicago—that has already caused historic flooding to some of Florida’s coastal communities.

How bad is it? The Waffle House Index, which has been used by FEMA as an indicator of a storm’s severity, closed all of its locations in Tallahassee, Florida. The Waffle House Index [WHI] is an informal metric named after the Waffle House restaurant chain, headquartered in Georgia, and used by the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) to determine the effect of a storm and the likely scale of assistance required for disaster recovery.

And, as of 8am EST, Helene has weakened to a Category 1 as it’s moved into Atlanta, Georgia. Nearly 2 million customers are without power across Florida, Georgia, and North/South Carolina. You can get real-time updates here, as we hope everyone in the region is staying safe.

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Stock market yesterday: The S&P 500 clinched a fresh new record amid GDP data and micro chip stock gains.and Stonk Stocks. Stonk, a deliberate misspelling of stock (meaning “a share of the value of a company which can be bought, sold, or traded as an investment”), was coined in a 2017 meme. The word is often used humorously on the internet to imply a vague understanding of financial transactions or poor financial decisions.

Upbeat GDP data and new stimulus measures in China were largely to thank. One of the day’s big winners was Southwest Airlines, which soared after executives announced plans to revitalize the business.

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To keep up with the ever-changing field of health care, we must learn new and re-learn old terminology in order to correctly apply it to practice. By bringing together the most up-to-date abbreviations, acronyms, definitions, and terms in the health care industry, the Dictionary offers a wealth of essential information that will help you understand the ever-changing policies and practices in health insurance and managed care today.

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FROM BULL: To Sideways Markets to Nvidia

Posted on July 5, 2024 by Dr. David Edward Marcinko MBA MEd CMP™

By Vitaliy Katsenelson CFA

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Today I am sharing with you an excerpt from a letter I wrote to IMA clients in the winter of 2023.

I discussed my condensed views on the stock market, economy, and our investment strategy. I think it is a good overview of where we are still today, almost a year and a half later. If you’ve read it before, skip to the end, where I share my updated thoughts on the Magnificent Seven and Nvidia.

READ MORE: From Bull to Sideways Markets to Nvidia

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JAMIE DIMON: Speaks on the Economy and Artificial Intelligence

Posted on April 18, 2024 by Dr. David Edward Marcinko MBA MEd CMP™

By Staff Reporters

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Jamie Dimon is bearish on a soft landing but bullish on AI

In his annual letter to shareholders, JPMorgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon just said that the odds interest rates return to the Fed’s target of 2% without triggering a recession are “a lot lower” than the 70%–80% chance that several markets seem to have priced in.

Dimon said JPMorgan is preparing for interest rates to possibly spike to 8% in the coming years, citing geopolitical risks, the green transition, and higher energy costs (but he’s notorious for having cautious outlooks). Artificial intelligence also topped Dimon’s list of pressing issues, and he’s “completely convinced” that AI’s impact will be “extraordinary”—maybe even as revolutionary as the printing press or the steam engine.

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DAILY UPDATE: The US Economy Slows as FTX’s Solana and the Markets Rise

Posted on November 6, 2023 by Dr. David Edward Marcinko MBA MEd CMP™

SPONSOR: http://www.MarcinkoAssociates.com

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The current hiring market is slowing as the US economy added just 150,000 jobs last month. The employment gains reported by the Labor Department yesterday fell short of expectations and were almost half of the 297,000 jobs created in September. Still, there’s no need to hit the economic panic button. Though the unemployment rate ticked up slightly, to 3.9% in October, it’s been below 4% since late 2021, the longest sub-4% stretch in over 50 years. But the hiring slowdown may be a sign that the US economy is gently showing.

Now, the six-week United Auto Workers strike against the Big Three Detroit carmakers was the primary culprit in the automotive manufacturing sector shedding 33,000 people from payroll. On the flip side, healthcare, government, and construction were the top job creators, adding 58k, 51k, and 23k positions, respectively.

And, the jobs numbers were in the sweet spot for investors. Stocks posted their biggest weekly gain this year. And that’s because investors view the reduced appetite for new hires as a sign the Fed is succeeding at cooling the economy in its fight against inflation. This jobs report makes it even more likely that the FOMC will put the parking brake on its interest rate hikes, and some traders are betting that the central bank might even lower rates next year.

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And, the victims of Sam Bankman-Fried‘s financial crimes could be set to recoup almost all of the $16 billion Solana that was lost when his crypto exchange FTX collapsed – unless the IRS steps in to seize the funds instead.

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Finally, stocks closed out their best week all year after the “Goldilocks” October jobs report could put the Fed’s interest rate hikes on ice. And, Paramount pictures posted double-digit gains for the second straight session.

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ECONOMY: Still Strong

Posted on October 20, 2023 by Dr. David Edward Marcinko MBA MEd CMP™

By Staff Reporters

SPONSOR: http://www.MarcinkoAssociates.com

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In the last 20 months, the US Federal Reserve has jacked up interest rates to a 22-year high to tame soaring inflation. And inflation has come down to about half of its June 2022 peak. But the economy is still strong.

The Fed’s rate-hiking jamboree was expected to slow hiring, spending, and broader economic growth as unfortunate side effects of popping the inflation balloon. However, a series of recent reports shows that the US economy is still roaring in the ’20s:

Jobs: Employers smashed expectations by adding 336,000 jobs in September, and the unemployment rate remains at a low level of 3.8%.
Spending: Retail sales also blew past estimates in September, a sign that American consumers remain the undisputed shopping world champs. This probably helped: Americans’ household wealth surged 37% from 2019 to 2022, according to Fed data released on Wednesday. That’s more than double the second-highest increase on record.
Economy: After the strong retail sales numbers came out this week, Morgan Stanley raised its Q3 economic growth outlook to 4.9% from 4.5%. Context: One year ago this week, Bloomberg economists predicted a 100% chance of a recession…within a year.

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MARKETS & ECONOMY …. Oh My?

Posted on July 26, 2023 by Dr. David Edward Marcinko MBA MEd CMP™

By Staff Reporters

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Markets: The Dow is on a run for the ages, extending its winning streak to 12 days. But, Spotify revealing widening losses due to its failed podcasting investments and projected lower revenues. And its stock plunge came despite adding a record number of new subscribers.
Economy: All eyes are on the FOMC today: With another rate hike pretty much a lock, investors will seek Jerome Powell’s comments to see whether the Fed is considering any more increases.

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Alphabet, which declared a “code red” for Google Search late last year as rivals like ChatGPT and Microsoft’s AI-equipped Bing came on the scene, is chugging right along. Google’s search advertising sales grew to a better-than-expected $42.6 billion. And, most people haven’t made ChatGPT their default search engine.
Microsoft beat expectations on its top- and bottom lines and told investors that it had spent, and would continue spending, gobs of money to build out AI infrastructure.

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Snap. The social media platform just rolled out an AI chatbot, My AI, and boasted that 150+ million users have sent over 10 billion messages to it. But, still fighting against the likes of TikTok for ad spending in a sluggish market, Snap’s sales dropped for the second straight quarter, causing shares to plummet 19% after-hours.

Conference calls: Meta reports earnings today, and Amazon and Apple report next week.

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Happy FOMC Decision Day Following the Regional Bank[s] Fiasco

Posted on May 3, 2023 by Dr. David Edward Marcinko MBA MEd CMP™

By Staff Reporters

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Markets: The relative calm after JPMorgan scooped up First Republic Bank lasted all of…one day. Two other West Coast lenders, PacificWest and Western Alliance, both tumbled in a sign investors still smell blood among regional banks.
Economy: Happy Fed Decision Day to all who celebrate. With inflation sizzling at still-uncomfortably high levels, Chair Jerome Powell is expected to announce the central bank’s 10th straight interest rate hike this afternoon. But many economists expect this rate increase could be the grand finale.
Layoffs jump to the highest level since late 2020. The number of job openings in the US dropped to a nearly two-year low in March, and layoffs increased to their highest point since December 2020, the Labor Department revealed yesterday. In this “bad news is good news” economic environment, the Fed will be pleased that the boiling-hot labor market is cooling off. It means less pressure on inflation and more justification to pause hiking rates.
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The Stock Market, The Economy, Possible Outcomes, How to Invest

Posted on April 7, 2023 by Dr. David Edward Marcinko MBA MEd CMP™

By Vitaliy Katsenelson, CFA

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This is part one of the post winter seasonal letter I wrote to IMA clients, sharing my thoughts about the economy and the market. I tried something I’ve never done before. Instead of conveying my message through storytelling, I tried to compress my thoughts into short sentences. I summarized some 50,000 words into about 1,000 (a compression ratio of 50 to 1!).

READ HERE: https://contrarianedge.com/the-stock-market-the-economy-possible-outcomes-how-to-invest/?utm_source=IMA++-+Main+Articles&utm_campaign=7b4f1d01d6-UBER_MONEY_MANAGER_KIDNAPPED_COPY_01&utm_medium=email&utm_term=0_f1c90406d1-7b4f1d01d6-55139025

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DAILY UPDATE: The Softening Economic Markets

Posted on April 6, 2023 by Dr. David Edward Marcinko MBA MEd CMP™

“Sameach Pesach”

Holy [Maundy] Thursday

By Staff Reporters

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Markets: The NASDAQ extended its losing streak for a third day yesterday amidst a mixed showing for stocks overall. Among the tech stocks having a rough day was cybersecurity giant Zscaler, as investors got new data suggesting the labor market may be cooling (setting off recession jitters again).

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This week’s economic numbers “all point to a softening economy,” but not necessarily a “soft landing,” says Kevin Gordon, senior investment strategist at the Schwab Center for Financial Research. An economic slowdown that averts recession “is what the Fed is looking for, but the market is saying today—with both stock prices and bond yields lower—that recession fears are outweighing hopes for a soft landing,” Kevin says.

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Here’s how the major indexes performed:

The S&P 500^® Index fell 10.22 points (0.3%) to 4090.38; the Dow Jones industrial average rose 80.34 (0.2%) to 33482.72; the NASDAQ Composite fell 129.47 (1.1%) to 11996.86.
The 10-year Treasury yield fell about 3 basis points to 3.309%.
CBOEs Volatility Index was up 0.12 at 19.12.

Among S&P 500 sectors, consumer discretionary and industrial stocks led declines. One bright spot was the healthcare sector, which jumped nearly 2%, helped by gains in Johnson & Johnson (JNJ) and Eli Lilly (LLY). Recession concerns weighed particularly heavily on small-cap stocks, as the Russell 2000 index dropped near a two-week low. WTI crude futures fell slightly but remained above $80 a barrel and near two-month highs.

Gold futures extended this week’s rally and ended at a 13-month high.

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CITE: https://www.amazon.com/Dictionary-Health-Information-Technology-Security/dp/0826149952/ref=sr_1_5?ie=UTF8&s=books&qid=1254413315&sr=1-5

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BANKS: Bankers and the Economy

Posted on February 22, 2023 by Dr. David Edward Marcinko MBA MEd CMP™

ECONOMIC PROPHETS?

By Staff Reporters

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Trying to read the economy is difficult But, some of the biggest financial institutions in the US—including JPMorgan, Bank of America, and Citigroup—will release their earnings reports for the final quarter of 2022 this morning. And they’ll share precious insight into the risk of a recession as an uncertain 2023 kicks into gear.

CITE: https://www.r2library.com/Resource/Title/082610254

Why are banks considered economic prophets?

According to Morning Brew and others, it is because their tentacles touch so many aspects of the economy (from consumer spending via credit cards to business health via commercial loans), that they can see into areas single-sectors where others can not.

Banks are hurting. Goldman Sachs just launched its biggest cost-cutting efforts since the 2008 financial crisis, laying off 3,200 employees (or 6.5% of its entire workforce) this week. And it’s not the only one reducing headcount: Morgan Stanley and Citi are among the other global banks that have trimmed their workforce recently as business slowed due to the Fed’s rate hikes. Overall, big banks’ profits are expected to have dropped 15% in Q4 from the year before.

But it’s not all bad. Rising rates can benefit banks—as lenders, they make more money when they can charge higher interest to borrowers. Of course, banks also need to pay out interest to their depositors, too, but the gap between their lending profits and their depositor payouts (known as the “net interest margin”) is expected to widen—at least for now.

Consumer watch: Pay attention to how much banks have set aside to cover defaults on mortgage, auto, and credit card loans. That’ll give us a peek into how American consumers are dealing with inflation.

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The Economy TODAY!

Posted on November 10, 2022 by Dr. David Edward Marcinko MBA MEd CMP™

By Staff Reporters

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It’s a big day for anyone trying to read Jerome Powell today because the October consumer price index report gets released this morning.

Economists expect to see the annual inflation rate come in at 7.9%, so anything higher is likely to spark fear that the Fed could get even more aggressive with its rate hikes.

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DAILY UPDATE: “Lights”, Earnings & the Economy

Posted on October 24, 2022 by Dr. David Edward Marcinko MBA MEd CMP™

HAPPY DIWALI

By Staff Reporters

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Happy Diwali! Hindus, Sikhs, Jains, and Buddhists around the world will celebrate India’s “festival of lights” today. In a sign of growing recognition of the festival, New York City announced last week that Diwali will become an official school holiday.

Earnings: If earnings season were a music festival, the headliners are about to come onstage. Corporate titans Amazon, Microsoft, Apple, Alphabet, and Meta are among the ~150 S&P companies that will give financial updates this week.

Economic data: The US economy shrank during the first two quarters of the year. We’ll find out whether it grew again in Q3 when fresh GDP numbers drop on Thursday (it’s expected to have). Plus, the Fed’s preferred measure of inflation will be released on Friday.

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FINANCE: https://www.routledge.com/Comprehensive-Financial-Planning-Strategies-for-Doctors-and-Advisors-Best/Marcinko-Hetico/p/book/9781482240283

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DAILY UPDATE: About the ECONOMY & RECESSION?

Posted on October 23, 2022 by Dr. David Edward Marcinko MBA MEd CMP™

Forecasts Cognitive [Mental] Dissonance?

By Staff Reporters

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A Bloomberg economic model forecast a 100% chance of a US recession within 12 months

Jeff Bezos warned companies to “batten down the hatches” in response to Goldman Sachs’s CEO saying there’s a good chance we’ll have a recession.

Elon Musk guesstimated that we’re going to be in a recession “probably until spring of ’24.”

Gwyneth Paltrow said, “The economy sucks.”

BUT, Bank of America CEO Brian Moynihan (the one with the epic vocabulary) said that while analysts are warning of recession and slower spending, “We just don’t see [that] here at Bank of America.” Transaction volumes for its customers jumped 10% in September and the first half of October over a year earlier.

And, American Express’s CEO said, “We’re not seeing any changes in consumer spending” and predicted a strong holiday quarter for retail and travel.

United Airlines’s CEO is “so optimistic about 2023.”

Many business leaders are forecasting an economic downturn. But the execs who run travel and credit card companies say that shoppers aren’t pulling back spending at all.

It’s like Americans are watching the forecast call for thunderstorms but, seeing that it’s still sunny outside, are heading out to the waves to surf anyway.

Big picture: Recession fears are rising as the Fed raises interest rates to tame inflation that’s soaring at 40-year highs. While the definition of a recession is pretty broad, a slowdown in consumer spending would certainly be an indicator of one: It accounts for about 70% of the US economy.

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FINANCE: https://www.routledge.com/Comprehensive-Financial-Planning-Strategies-for-Doctors-and-Advisors-Best/Marcinko-Hetico/p/book/9781482240283

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DAILY UPDATE: Equities, Treasuries, Crude Oil and BoA

Posted on October 18, 2022 by Dr. David Edward Marcinko MBA MEd CMP™

THE ECONOMY & RECESSION

By Staff Reporters

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U.S. equities rose noticeably in the first trading session of the week following the new U.K. finance minister’s announcement that the government would abandon nearly all its tax cut plans. The moves came amid hopes of some stabilization in the global bond and currency markets which have seen increased volatility in the wake of the initial proposal.

Treasury yields traded mixed, while the U.S. dollar fell amid strength in both the British pound and the euro.

Crude oil prices nudged lower, and gold traded slightly higher.

Bank of America shares rose as the company eclipsed quarterly expectations on a jump in net interest income, while Q3 earnings season is set to kick into a higher gear this week.

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Economy: This party may be busted by the cops. A US recession is a 100% certainty within the next 12 months, according to Bloomberg’s economic model.

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FINANCE: https://www.routledge.com/Comprehensive-Financial-Planning-Strategies-for-Doctors-and-Advisors-Best/Marcinko-Hetico/p/book/9781482240283

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UPDATE: The Markets, Jim Rogers Speaks, and the Economy

Posted on August 2, 2022 by Dr. David Edward Marcinko MBA MEd CMP™

By Staff Reporters

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Stocks dipped at the start of August. The S&P 500 gave up an early gain to end down 11.7 points, or 0.3%, to close at 4,118.6. The Dow Jones Industrial Average dipped 46.7 points to 32,708, or 0.1%, and the tech-heavy NASDAQ fell 0.2%. Smaller company stocks also gave back some of their recent gains, nudging the Russell 2000 0.1% lower. Bond yields mostly fell. The yield on the 10-year Treasury, which influences mortgage rates, fell to 2.60% from 2.65% late Friday.

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Jim Rogers is bracing for an epic stock-market crash and a painful recession.
George Soros’ former partner sees the US dollar, energy, and agriculture as solid short-term bets.

Jim Rogers warned a historic stock-market crash is on the horizon, touted energy and agriculture as near-term winners, and cautioned that curbing inflation would require much higher interest rates during a recent Kitco News interview. Rogers is best known as the co-founder of Quantum Fund and Soros Fund Management. The veteran investor predicted a painful recession, ruled out bitcoin succeeding as a currency, and asserted that even a Russia-Ukraine peace deal wouldn’t prevent asset prices from eventually plunging.

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And now, some cautionary advice for workers worried about an economic downturn. “It will be mostly a white-collar recession. And the blue-collar recession will not be in the same places that we saw in the past.” That was William Lee, chief economist at the Milken Institute, a Santa Barbara, Calif.-based think tank, in an interview with MarketWatch, speculating on the nature of America’s next recession. Amid rising expectations among economists of a recession — commonly defined as two consecutive quarters of negative growth — Lee said there’s still a demand for blue-collar workers in service and manufacturing, which will help protect those workers if a recession hits. Even with a low unemployment rate of 3.6%, lower-income workers are always vulnerable in any economic downturn, but adding to comments he made on Bloomberg Radio earlier this week, Lee said there may be exceptions to that rule this time around.

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Finally, there’s an optimistic outlook considering June’s hot inflation reading of 9.1%, the fastest rise in prices in 41 years. It prompted another 75-point rate hike from the central bank last week, bringing the policy rate to 2.25%-2.5%. But there are signs the inflation fight is beginning to show results, Fundstrat said. July’s stock market performance was the strongest since November 2020, and inflation expectations have come down since July’s FOMC meeting.

The economy has entered a technical recession — but it could be just a growth scare, Fundstrat said.
Inflation expectations have flattened, and markets now see the policy rate peaking at 3.28% in January 2023.
It suggests that the stock market may not fall as sharply as some banks have predicted.

The economy entered a technical recession following the second straight quarterly decline for US GDP, but the market could be looking at a growth scare instead of a full blown recession and inflation should start falling sharply beginning with July’s reading, Fundstrat said in a note over the weekend.

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UPDATE: Crypto IRS, Mid-Year Markets and the Inflation Economy

Posted on June 30, 2022 by Dr. David Edward Marcinko MBA MEd CMP™

By Staff Reporters

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Under a law passed by Congress last November, cryptocurrency firms are supposed to begin recording their clients’ detailed transaction data in 2023, with reports sent to the IRS and to investors the following year. From the beginning, industry executives have pushed back, complaining that the legislation was drafted too broadly. Now, the Treasury Department and the Internal Revenue Service are likely to push off a January date for the firms to begin tracking data such as customers’ capital gains and losses, according to anonymous insiders. The move would mean the tax agency waits longer to get the kind of data it gets for stocks or bonds.

Bitcoin: $20,289.61

Markets: After another boring trading session, stocks wait to complete the first half of 2022—which will come at 4pm ET today. And, the carnage from Bed Bath & Beyond is a result of the company reporting a big sales decline from the previous year and showing CEO Mark Tritton the door.

Economy: Fed Chair Jerome Powell and two other central bank chiefs spoke about their inflation-combating efforts at a conference in Portugal. All three acknowledged that recent economic shocks (COVID, the war in Ukraine) have upended how inflation was understood for decades. “I think we now understand better how little we understand on inflation,” Powell said.

10 Year: 3.096%

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UPDATE: Medical Workplace Violence, the Economy and Wheat/Corn/Bean Futures

Posted on June 6, 2022 by Dr. David Edward Marcinko MBA MEd CMP™

By Staff Reporters

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“The risk of workplace violence is a serious occupational hazard for nurses and other health care workers,” a recent study by National Nurses United found. “Countless acts of assault, battery, aggression, and threats of violence that routinely take place in health care settings demonstrate a frightening trend of increasing violence faced by health care workers throughout the country.”

Last week’s shooting that left four people dead at a Tulsa medical center is an all-too-familiar scenario for health care workers across the nation. In another hospital attack, a man stabbed a doctor and two nurses at Encino Hospital Medical Center’s emergency department and barricaded himself inside. On the same day as the Tulsa shooting, a county jail inmate receiving treatment at a Miami Valley, Ohio, hospital stole a security guard’s gun, killed the guard and escaped before fatally shooting himself. And that’s just one of at least six deadly assaults in medical buildings that happened in Texas, California, New Jersey, Minnesota and elsewhere in the past three years.

And, the May jobs report showed the US economy added a robust 390,000 jobs last month and the unemployment rate held steady at a low 3.6%. May’s jobs growth is the weakest pace of hiring in more than a year, but wage growth fell to 5.2% in May from 5.5% in April. This suggests the crippling labor shortage is easing up and inflation is starting to tick down across the economy.

Finally, July Corn traded at $7.27, and July beans $17.00. July Chicago wheat traded at $10.40, down more than $1.00 per bushel.

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PODCAST: The “Economy” – How it Affects Everyone

Posted on June 2, 2022 by Dr. David Edward Marcinko MBA MEd CMP™

By Rich Helppie

THE COMMON BRIDGE

The Second of a Two-Part Episode with Beata Kirr

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PODCAST LINK: https://tinyurl.com/zrxdxzya

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UPDATE: The Waltons, Economy, Gasoline and Pfizer for Kids

Posted on May 18, 2022 by Dr. David Edward Marcinko MBA MEd CMP™

By Staff Reporters

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The Waltons are the the world’s richest family, and five of them own just under half of Walmart. They lost a combined $19 billion on Tuesday after Walmart posted disappointing quarterly results. The group is worth about $212 billion, according to the Bloomberg Billionaires Index.
Economy: On the other, national retail spending in April increased for the fourth straight month, despite inflation nearing a 40-year high and consumer sentiment at an 11-year low. It’s an unusual time!
Gas prices have risen above $4 a gallon in all 50 US states for the first time ever. Five states are averaging more than $5 a gallon, and one—California—hit a record of $6.02.
The FDA authorized a booster shot of Pfizer’s vaccine for kids ages 5–11.

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UPDATE: The Markets and Economy

Posted on May 7, 2022 by Dr. David Edward Marcinko MBA MEd CMP™

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Markets: All three indexes closed lower (the Dow’s sixth-straight week) following the FOMC’s guidance on future interest rate hikes. Peloton shares fell to a record low yesterday with new CEO Barry McCarthy’s revival plan not inspiring confidence.
Economy: The April jobs report showed a labor market that continues to chug along. US employers added a more-than-expected 428,000 jobs and the unemployment rate remained low at 3.6%. The economy has recovered almost 95% of the jobs lost due to Covid pandemic.
Health Economics: https://www.r2library.com/Resource/Title/082610254

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UPDATE: The Markets, T-Bonds and Economy

Posted on May 3, 2022 by Dr. David Edward Marcinko MBA MEd CMP™

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By Staff Reporters

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Markets: Stocks rallied very late in the day to close in the positive green. It may be the start of a turnaround or just a rest before they resume their decline.
Bonds: Over in the bond market, the yield on the 10-year Treasury note touched 3% for the first time since 2018, continuing an upward trend that coincides with the Fed’s move to raise interest rates and shrink its balance sheet.
Economy: The US economy is projected to recover all of the 22 million jobs it lost at the beginning of COVID by this summer, according to Fitch Ratings. Back in the fall of 2020, Moody’s warned that the US wouldn’t recoup all of those jobs until 2024.

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UPDATE: Free Covid Testing Ends, Stocks Up, Jobless Claims, Oil, Commodities & Lapsus$ are Down

Posted on March 25, 2022 by Dr. David Edward Marcinko MBA MEd CMP™

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By Staff Reporters

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COVID-19: The White House said it will end the reimbursement program, which was set up in March 2020 under then-President Trump, because it has exhausted its funding. Money from the program went toward paying hospitals and other health care providers for the treatment, testing and vaccination of those without insurance, regardless of immigration status.

STOCKS: US stocks moved higher recovering from Wednesday’s sell-off, after weekly jobless claims fell to their lowest level in 52 years.

JOBS: Jobless claims fell to 187,000 last week, down 28,000 from the previous week and ahead of economist’s estimates of 210,000. Filings hit the lowest level since September 1969, highlighting the underlying strength of a job market that is still recovering from the COVID-19 pandemic.

COMMODITIES: Meanwhile, commodity prices cooled with oil prices falling more than 2%. The drop in oil came on the same day President Joe Biden traveled to Europe to meet with other Western countries regarding the ongoing invasion of Ukraine by Russia, and called for Russia to be removed from G20.

Lapsus$: Cybersecurity experts tracked down the group’s alleged ringleader, a 16 year old, in Oxford, England, who reportedly amassed $14 million from his after-school hacking job. Lapsus$ targeted companies like Microsoft, Nvidia, and Okta.

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UPDATE: The US Economy and Stock Markets

Posted on March 3, 2022 by Dr. David Edward Marcinko MBA MEd CMP™

By Staff Reporters

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Economy: Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell told Congress that “it’s too soon to say” how the war in Ukraine will affect the central bank’s plans, but for now it’s not enough to derail the FOMC from hiking interest rates later this month.

CITE: https://www.r2library.com/Resource/Title/082610254

Markets: Stocks rose across the board with strong corporate fundamentals outshining geopolitical worries…at least for a day. Intel had a strong showing after its CEO got a shout-out in the State of the Union address (to be fair, we have no idea if those two things are related).

US MARKETS

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UPDATE: The Markets, Economy, Bitcoin and Apple

Posted on February 9, 2022 by Dr. David Edward Marcinko MBA MEd CMP™

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By Staff Reporters

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Markets: Solid corporate earnings boosted Wall Street and all the major indexes are now higher for the week. Pfizer dipped after posting lower-than-expected Q4 revenue but it did bring in $36.8 billion in sales in 2021.
Economy: The US trade deficit rose to a record $859 billion in 2021 (up 27% from the year prior) due to a surge in imports and higher prices for those imports.
Bitcoin: Authorities arrested a husband and wife accused of attempting to launder 119,754 stolen bitcoin—valued at $4.5 billion. Along with the arrest of the couple, Ilya Lichtenstein and Heather Morgan, the Justice Department announced that it had seized more than 94,000 of the allegedly stolen bitcoin, valued at $3.6 billion—the largest financial seizure in the agency’s history.
Apple: Announces Tap to Pay. In a bid to encourage more smartphone intimacy, the company is releasing a feature that allows customers to spend money by simply tapping an iPhone against a merchant’s iPhone—effectively turning the device into a checkout register.
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UPDATE: Markets, Inflation, Earnings, Oil, Covid and the Economy

Posted on February 7, 2022 by Dr. David Edward Marcinko MBA MEd CMP™

By Staff Reporters

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Why we need an economy that works for everyone — and how to get it | Medium

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Markets: Major stock market indexes, the S&P 500 and NASDAQ posted their best week so far this year. And, potential buyers for Peloton include Amazon, Nike, Apple, Google, Netflix, Microsoft, or a private equity firm.
Inflation: The monthly inflation report will drop on Thursday, and consumer prices are projected to have jumped 0.5% from the previous month and 7.3% over the past year—the biggest increase since 1982.
Earnings: From Snap’s 59% gain to Meta’s 26% wipeout. the companies reporting this week—Pfizer, Disney, Coca-Cola, Pepsi, Twitter and Zillow know that any small stain on their financials could lead to a stock plunge.
Oil: The big news is that US oil prices topped $90 for the first time since 2014, despite attempts by the Biden administration to keep them down. Gas prices are back up to their highest levels in more than seven years.
Covid: The US death toll from Covid-19 has now surpassed 900,000. And, Omicron has gotten more people around the world sick at the same time than at any point since the 1918–1919 flu pandemic, the WSJ points out.
Economy: The jobs report stunned experts by adding 467,000 jobs last month, far more than expected and a sign of an extraordinarily strong labor market.
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UPDATE: The Markets and Economy

Posted on February 5, 2022 by Dr. David Edward Marcinko MBA MEd CMP™

By Staff Reporters

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Markets: The stock market was downright crazy last week. A day after Meta [Facebook] suffered the worst one-day drop in value in US stock market history (losing more than $230 billion), Amazon set the record for the biggest one-day gain on Wall Street (adding $191 billion). As for the major indexes, the S&P 500 and NASDAQ posted their best week so far this year.
Economy: The jobs report stunned experts by adding 467,000 jobs last month, far more than expected and a sign of an extraordinarily strong labor market. In even better news, the government said it had under-counted the number of jobs added in November and December by more than 700,000.
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PODCAST: The Markets, Social Media Scams and Employment

Posted on January 31, 2022 by Dr. David Edward Marcinko MBA MEd CMP™

By Staff Reporters

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Markets: Stocks just finished a period of high volatility and biotech companies in particular are feeling unsteady. The sector is off to its worst start to a year since 2016 and Moderna is the worst performer in the S&P 500.

Social Media: More than 95,000 people lost a collective $770 million due to fraud on social media last year, a new FTC report found. That represents 25% of all reported losses to fraud in 2021 and a breathtaking 18x increase over social media scam losses in 2017. Driving the surge was bogus cryptocurrencies. In fact, investment-related scams were the most prevalent type of fraud on social media, accounting for 37% of all losses. Romance scams (24%) were No. 2, and online shopping scams (14%) won the bronze medal.

Employment: The January employment rate dropped, but with Omicron forcing so many Americans to call out sick last month, the data may be specious. Economists polled by Dow Jones are estimating the economy added 200,000 jobs last month.

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UPDATE: Stock Market, Federal Reserve, Economy and Cyber-Crime

Posted on January 29, 2022 by Dr. David Edward Marcinko MBA MEd CMP™

By Staff Reporters

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Stock Market: US stocks jumped yesterday with the NASDAQ 100 surging more than 3% as a wave of corporate earnings results helped investors overcome fears of a hawkish Federal Reserve.

Federal Reserve: Friday’s action helped the broader stock market indices end the week mostly flat after a series of volatile trading sessions sparked by the Federal Reserve’s Wednesday meeting. The Dow Jones Industrial Average recorded a swing of 1,100 points on Monday alone.

Economy: Americans are the most pessimistic about the economy they’ve been in a decade — with spirits even lower than in the early pandemic lock-downs in spring 2020. The University of Michigan’s Consumer Sentiment Index sank to 67.2 from 70.6 in January, according to data published Friday. Economists surveyed by Bloomberg expected sentiment to slide to 68.7. The final January figure is the lowest since November 2011 and sits 11.8 points below levels seen one year ago.

Cyber-Crime: Lazarus, a known cyber-crime group with ties to the North Korean government, has managed to abuse the MSFT Windows Update Client to distribute malware, cybersecurity researchers from Malwarebytes have found. In a blog post detailing their findings, the researchers said they were investigating a phishing campaign impersonating Lockheed Martin, an American aerospace, arms, defense, information security, and technology corporation.

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UPDATE: Markets and the Economy

Posted on January 21, 2022 by Dr. David Edward Marcinko MBA MEd CMP™

By Staff Reporters

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Markets: The S&P 500 closed below 4,500 points for the first time since October after a heavy sell-off in the final hour of the trading day. Netflix stock tumbled in after-hours trading when it revealed slowing subscriber growth for the prior and current quarters.
Economy: The number of people filing jobless claims took an unexpectedly big jump last week after a period of historically low readings. The pop is likely a sign of Omicron disruptions hitting the labor market, and economists expect it to be temporary.
NASDAQ Sentiment: https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/savingandinvesting/a-bullish-sign-nasdaq-investor-sentiment-is-worse-now-than-it-was-in-march-2020/ar-AASZ5f5?li=BBnb7Kz
CITE: https://www.r2library.com/Resource/Title/082610254

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Filed under: Breaking News, Health Economics, Healthcare Finance, Investing, LifeStyle | Tagged: bull market, covid, economy, NASDAQ, Netflix, omicron, S&P | Leave a comment »

UPDATE: Stock Market and the Economy

Posted on January 5, 2022 by Dr. David Edward Marcinko MBA MEd CMP™

By Staff Reporters

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The stock market was very sharply mixed yesterday, and the NASDAQ Composite took the brunt of the damage. Even as the Dow Jones Industrial Average was up triple digits, the NASDAQ fell almost 2% as of 1:45 p.m. ET; and finishing down 210.08 points or (‎-1.33%).

Physicians and other investors looking at the biggest stocks in the NASDAQ would have to go through three dozen stocks on the list before finding a single one that rose more than 1%. Many of the top tech giants were down 1% to 5% or more on the day. Yet there were some winning NASDAQ stocks, and a few in particular might seem surprising to those used to seeing more popular names among top performers.

Bond yields gained thanks to bullish attitudes around economic growth.

Economy: The Great Resignation rolls on as a record 4.5 million Americans quit their jobs in November. That’s equivalent to 3% of the workforce.

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Filed under: Breaking News, Investing, LifeStyle, Portfolio Management | Tagged: DJIA, economy, great resignation, Investing, l corona, NASDAQ, tech stocks | Leave a comment »

UPDATE: Stock Markets and the Economy

Posted on December 23, 2021 by Dr. David Edward Marcinko MBA MEd CMP™

By staff reporters

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Stock Markets: Stocks gained for the second straight day as a mini “Santa Clause Rally” picks up steam. Tesla made its grand return to the $1 trillion market cap club after Elon Musk said he was “almost done” selling 10% of his stake.
Economy: Consumer confidence rose this month to its highest level since July, showing that Omicron and inflation concerns are no match for the formidable American shopper.
CITE: https://www.r2library.com/Resource/Title/082610254
SANTA CLAUSE: https://medicalexecutivepost.com/2018/12/24/will-there-be-a-santa-clause-rally-this-year/

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Filed under: Breaking News, Experts Invited, Investing | Tagged: covid, economy, musk, stock markets, Tesla | Leave a comment »

Stock Markets with Economic Update

Posted on December 4, 2021 by Dr. David Edward Marcinko MBA MEd CMP™

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By staff reporters

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Markets: Stocks Gone Wild, the major indexes all bounced back from a bruising Wednesday, led by travel and hospitality stocks. Omicron has the markets looking like a sine wave this week.
Other updates: Congress passed a short-term spending bill to avoid a government shutdown this weekend. Plus, it’s jobs report day. Economists expect a meaty gain of 550,000 jobs in November, which would be the biggest number since July.

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Filed under: Breaking News, Investing | Tagged: economy, Investing, jobs report, stock markets | Leave a comment »

Stock MARKET and Economic UPDATE

Posted on December 2, 2021 by Dr. David Edward Marcinko MBA MEd CMP™

IN BRIEF

By Staff Reporters

Markets: The major indexes continued their fall as the first Omicron case in the US was identified in California. The S&P just posted its worst 2-day drop since October 2020.
Politics: Another government shutdown deadline is approaching. Lawmakers are negotiating a short-term spending patch to avoid a partial shutdown that would begin at 12:01am ET on Saturday.

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UPDATE: https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/markets/the-nasdaq-and-the-dow-are-now-trading-in-a-way-that-was-evident-just-before-the-internet-bubble-burst/ar-AARnDH6?li=BBnbfcL

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Filed under: Alerts Sign-Up, Breaking News, Investing | Tagged: economy, Investing, markets, stock market | Leave a comment »

The Bear MARKETS and Cyber ECONOMY

Posted on November 29, 2021 by Dr. David Edward Marcinko MBA MEd CMP™

By Staff Reporters

Markets: Stocks dropped sharply in the post-Thanksgiving trading session on Friday due to concerns over the new Covid variant, Omicron. The Dow fell 2.5% for its worst day of the year, and the S&P also tumbled 2.3%. Oil prices and travel stocks also got rocked given fresh worries over travel demand, while “stay-at-home” names like Peloton and Zoom got a boost.

Economy: It’s still way too early to know the impact of Omicron on economic growth. As we laid out last week, the Fed is under pressure to accelerate the winding down of its stimulus measures in order to battle inflation, but the new variant could change the calculus. Investors dialed back their expectations of a sooner-than-expected rate increase on Friday.

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Filed under: Breaking News, Health Economics, Healthcare Finance, Investing | Tagged: bear, bear market, bear markets, black Friday, covid, economy, Investing, omicron, pandemic | 1 Comment »

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