PHYSICIANS BEWARE: Traditional Financial Planning “Rules of Thumb”

Posted on May 17, 2024 by Dr. David Edward Marcinko MBA MEd CMP™

DOCTORS AND MEDICAL PROFESSIONALS BEWARE?

We ARE Different!

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By Dr. David E. Marcinko MBA CMP®

SPONSOR: http://www.CertifiedMedicalPlanner.org

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While financial planning rules of thumbs are useful to people as general guidelines, they may be too oversimplified in many situations, leading to underestimating or overestimating an individual’s needs. This may be especially true for physicians and many medical professionals. Rules of thumb do not account for specific circumstances or factors occurring at a particular time, or that could change over time, which should be considered for making sound financial decisions.
Great Health Industry Resignation: https://medicalexecutivepost.com/2021/12/12/healthcare-industry-hit-with-the-great-resignation-retirement/

For example, in a tight job market, an emergency fund amounting to six months of household expenses does not consider the possibility of extended unemployment. I’ve always suggested 2-3 years for doctors. Venture capitalist lay-offs of physicians during the pandemic confirm this often criticized benchmark opinion of mine.

As another example, buying life insurance based on a multiple of income does not account for the specific needs of the surviving family, which include a mortgage, the need for college funding and an extended survivor income for a non-working spouse. Again a huge home mortgage, or several children or dependents, may be the financial bane of physician colleagues and life insurance.

CITE: https://www.r2library.com/Resource/Title/082610254

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EXAMPLES: Old/New Rules

A home purchase should cost less than an amount equal to two and a half years of your annual income. I think physicians in practice for 3-5 years might go up to 3.5X annual income; ceteras paribus.
Save at least 10-15% of your take-home income for retirement. Seek to save 20% or more.
Have at least five times your gross salary in life insurance death benefit. Consider 10X this amount in term insurance if young, and/or with several children or other special circumstances.
Pay off your highest-interest credit cards first. Agreed.
The stock market has a long-term average return of 10%. Agreed, but appreciated risk adjusted rates of return..
You should have an emergency fund equal to six months’ worth of household expenses. Doctors should seek 2-3 years.
Your age represents the percentage of bonds you should have in your portfolio. Risk tolerance and assets may be more vital.
Your age subtracted from 100 represents the percentage of stocks you should have in your portfolio. Risk tolerance and assets may still be more vital.
A balanced portfolio is 60% stocks, 40% bonds. With historic low interest rates, cash may be a more flexible alternative than bonds; also avoid most bond mutual funds as they usually never mature.

There are also rules of thumb for determining how much net worth you will need to retire comfortably at a normal retirement age. Here is the calculation that Investopedia uses to determine your net worth:

If you are employed and earning income: ((your age) x (annual household income)) / 10.
If you are not earning income or you are a student: ((your age – 27) x (annual household income)) / 10.
NET WORTH: https://medicalexecutivepost.com/2007/11/26/assets-liabilities-and-personal-net-worth/
INCOME: https://medicalexecutivepost.com/2008/04/22/medical-income-salary-maximization/

Compensation in the Physician Specialties: Mostly Stable - NEJM CareerCenter Resources

RULES 72, 78 and 115: https://medicalexecutivepost.com/2022/01/30/the-rules-of-72-78-and-115/

INVITATION: https://medicalexecutivepost.com/2021/05/08/invite-dr-marcinko-to-your-next-big-event/

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REVIEW: Style-Based Stock Portfolio Performance Evaluations

Posted on May 14, 2024 by Dr. David Edward Marcinko MBA MEd CMP™

Stock or Manager Relevance Comparisons and Philosophy

By Dr. David Edward Marcinko MBA, MEd, CMP™

SPONSOR: http://www.CertifiedMedicalPlanner.org

[Publisher-in-Chief]

One relatively recent performance evaluation approach that was developed to help improve the relevance of comparisons is the separation of stock universes and managers by style. This classification method attempts to distinguish between stocks or manager philosophies based upon general financial characteristics of the investments.

The Managers

In very general terms, a manager is often a growth manager if the investment approach that the manager uses focuses on stocks showing growth and momentum in its earnings and price.

A value manager is generally considered to be a manager that attempts to identify under-valued securities based upon fundamental analysis of the company. A stock may be considered either “growth” or “value” based on a given set of valuation measures such as price-to-earnings, price-to-book value, and dividend yield.

The Style

The goal of style-based performance comparisons is to take some of the biases of the market environment out of the comparison, since a portfolio’s returns will ideally be evaluated versus a universe of alternatives that represent similar investment characteristics facing the same basic market environment. Thus, if the environment is one in which investors in stocks with strong past earnings and price momentum have generally performed better than those using fundamental analysis to find under-valued stocks, comparing the growth/momentum portfolio to a growth index or universe should help eliminate the bias.

Style-based universes can help the medical professional better understand the basic environment captured over a given performance time period.

However, there are significant limitations with the various approaches to constructing style-based stock and manager universes that should be understood if they are to be used in direct performance comparisons. Taking style-based stock universes separately from style-based manager universe, one of the most significant issues regarding the categorization of stocks by “growth” and “value” styles is the lack of agreement in the specification of what a growth stock is versus a value stock. With some universes divided by price-to-book value, others by price-to-earnings and/or dividend yields and some by combinations of similar variables, stocks are often classified very differently by two different stock universes. Further, stocks move across a broad spectrum as their price and fundamentals change, resulting in stocks constantly moving between growth and value categories for any given universe. If there is ambiguity in the rating of a given stock, then the difficulty is only compounded when we attempt to boil what may be complex investment processes of an investment manager or mutual fund portfolio manager to a simple classification of growth or value. A beaten down cyclical stock that no self-respecting growth/momentum manager would purchase may be classified as “growth” because it has a high price-to-earnings ratio (i.e., from low earnings) or a high price-to-book value (i.e., from asset write-offs). Value managers are not the only ones to own low valuation stocks that have improving earnings.

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The second problem with style categorization is that managers are often misclassified or they purposefully “game” the categorization of their own process in order to appear more competitive. As an example, if a manager that typically looks for relatively strong earnings/price momentum is lagging in a period when “growth” managers are outperforming, the rank of the manager can be improved simply by claiming a “value” approach. Morningstar’s “style box” classification of mutual funds by size and style of the current portfolio highlight this problem for any given fund by showing how their portfolio has changed its classification annually.

Current Events

The stock market has been booming lately. Up almost 100% since March 2009, after being down almost 50%. And so, perhaps this is a good time to re-evaluate the performance of your investment portfolio[s].

Assessment

However, this leads to an interesting question for the medical professional or his/her advisor: If a manager is still using the same basic investment philosophy and disciplines, but their “style” category has changed according to the ratings service, should you fire them? If the answer is “yes”, then the burden of monitoring and the cost of manager turnover are an inevitable part of narrow style based performance comparisons.

But, if the answer is “no,” then it is easy to see the difficulty of fitting every management approach into a simple style box. The more reasonable alternative is to use style-based stock and manager universes as a tool for understanding the environment, rather than an absolute performance benchmark.

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About Tombstone Securities Advertising and the “New Issue” Propsectus

Posted on May 13, 2024 by Dr. David Edward Marcinko MBA MEd CMP™

SPONSOR: http://www.CertifiedMedicalPlanner.org

A Primer for Physician Investors and Medical Professionals

By: Dr. David Edward Marcinko; MBA, MEd, CMP™

[Editor-in-Chief]

[PART 2 OF 8]

NOTE: This is an eight part ME-P series based on a weekend lecture I gave more than a decade ago to an interested group of graduate, business and medical school students. The material is a bit dated and some facts and specifics may have changed since then. But, the overall thought-leadership information of the essay remains interesting and informative. We trust you will enjoy it.

Introduction

Despite the SEC restrictions, noted in Part I of this series, some idea of potential demand for a new security issue can be gauged and have a bearing on pricing decisions.

For example, as CEO of a medical instrument company, or interested investor, would you rather see a great deal of interest in a potential new issue or not very much interest? There is however, one kind of advertisement that the underwriter can publish during the cooling off period. It’s known as a tombstone ad. The ad makes it clear that it is only an announcement and does not constitute an offer to sell or solicit the issue, and that such an offering can only be made by prospectus. SEC Rule 134 of the 1933 Act itself, refers to a tombstone ad as “communication not deemed a prospectus” because it makes reference to the prospectus in the ad. Tombstones have received their name because of the sparse nature of details found in them.

However, the most popular use of the tombstone ad is to announce the effectiveness of a new issue, after it has been successfully issued. This promotes the success of both he underwriter, as well as the company.

Since distributing securities involves potential liability to the investment bank, it will do everything possible to protect itself. So, near the end of the cooling off period, a meeting is held between the underwriter and the corporation. It is known as a due diligence meeting. At this meeting they both discuss amendments that are going to be necessary to make the registration statement complete and accurate. The corporate officers, and the underwriters sign, the final registration statement. They have civil liability for damages that result from omissions of material facts or

Mis-statements of fact. They also have criminal liability if the distribution is done by use of fraudulent, manipulative, or deceptive means. Due diligence takes on a whole new meaning when incarceration from a half-hearted effort underwriting efforts can occur. The investment bank strives to ensure that there have been no material changes to the issuer or the terms of the issue since the registration statement was filed.

Again, as a physician, how would you feel if you were an investment banker raising capital for a new pharmaceutical company that had developed a drug product that was highly marketable. But, on the day after the issue was effective, there was a major news story indicating that the company was being sued for patent infringement? What effect do you think that would have on the market price of this new issue? It would probably plunge. How could this situation have been prevented? The due diligence meeting is more than a cocktail party or a gathering in a smoke filled room. Otherwise, the company would require specially trained people, to do a patent search lessening the likelihood of this scenario. At the due diligence meeting, work is done on the preparation of the final prospectus, but the investment bank does not set the public offering price or the effective date at this meeting. The SEC will eventually set the effective date for the registration and it is on that date that the final offering price will be determined.

Once the SEC sets the effective date, sales may be executed and money can be accepted by the investment bank. It is at this time that the final prospectus, similar to the red herring but without the red ink and with the missing numbers, is issued. A prospectus is an abbreviated form of the registration statement, distributed to purchasers, on and after the effective date of the registration. It is not the same as the registration statement. A typical registration statement consists of papers that stand more than a foot high; rarely does a prospectus go beyond 40 or 50 pages. All purchasers will receive a final prospectus and then it becomes permissible for the underwriter to provide sales literature.

In addition to the requirement that a prospectus must be delivered to a purchaser of new issues no later than with confirmation of the trade, there are two other requirements that healthcare executives investors should know.

90-day: When an issuer has an initial public offering (IPO), there is generally a lack of publicly available material relating to the operations of that issuer. Because of this, the SEC requires that all members of the underwriting group make available a prospectus on an IPO for a period of 90 days after the effective date.

4O-day: Once an issuer has gone public, there are a number of routine filings that must be made with the SEC so there is publicly available information regarding the financial condition of that issuer. Since additional information is now available, the SEC requires that, on all issues other than IPOs, any member of the underwriting group must make available a prospectus for a period of 40 days after the effective date.

In the event that the investment bankers misgauged the marketplace, and the issue moves quite slowly, it is possible that information contained in the prospectus would be rendered obsolete by the SEC. Specifically, the SEC requires that any prospectus used more than 9 months after the effective date, may not have any financial information more than 16 months old. It can however, be amended or stickered, with updated information, as needed.

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Syndication Among Underwriters

Because the investment banking firm may be underwriting (distributing) a rather large dollar amount of securities, to spread its risk exposure, it may form a group made up of other investment bankers or underwriters, known as a syndicate. The syndicate is headed by a syndicate manager, or lead underwriter, and it is his job to decide whether to participate in the offering. If so, the managing underwriter will sign a non-binding agreement called a letter of intent. .

If all has gone well and the market place is sufficiently interested in the security, and the SEC has been satisfied with respect to the registration statement, it is time for all parties to the offering to formalize their relationships with a contract including the basic understandings reflected in the letter of intent. Three principal underwriting contracts are involved in the usual public offering, each serving a distinct purpose. These are the: Agreement among Underwriters, Underwriting Agreement, and the Dealer Agreement.

In the Agreement Among Underwriters (AAU), the underwriters committing to a portion of the issue, enter into an agreement establishing the nature and terms of their relationship with each other. It designates the syndicate manager to act on their behalf, particularly to enter into an Underwriting Agreement with the issuer, and to conduct the offering on behalf of each of them. The AAU will designate the managing underwriter’s compensation (management fee) for managing the offering.

The authority to manage the offering includes the authority to: agree with the issuer as to the public offering price; decide when to commence the offering; modify the offering price and selling commission; control all advertising; and, control the timing and effectiveness of the registration statement by quickly responding to deficiency letters. Each underwriter agrees to purchase a portion of the underwritten securities, which is known as each under-writer’s allotment (allocation). It is normally signed severally, but not jointly, meaning each underwriter is obligated to sell his allocation but bears no financial obligation for any unsold allotment of another underwriter. This is referred to as a divided account or a Western account. Much less frequently, an undivided or Eastern account, will be used. Each underwriter is responsible for unsold allotments of others, based upon a proportionate share of the offering.

The above comments referred to firm commitment underwriting. Another type of underwriting commitment however, is known as best efforts underwriting. Under the terms of best efforts underwriting, the underwriters make no commitment to buy or sell the issue, they simply do the best they can, acting as an agent for the issuer, and having no liability to the issuer if none of the securities are sold. There is no syndicate formed with a best efforts underwriting. The investment bankers form a selling group, with each member doing his best to sell his allotment. Two variations of a best efforts underwriting are: the all-or-none, and the mini-max (part-or-none) underwriting. Under the provisions of an all-or-none offering, unless all of the shares can be distributed within a specified period of time, the offering will terminate and no subscriptions or orders will be accepted or filled. Under mini-max, unless a set minimum amount is sold, the offering will be terminated.

SEC Rule 15c2-4 requires the underwriter to set up an escrow account for any money received before the closing date, in the event that it is necessary to return the money to prospective purchasers. If the “minimum”, or the “all” contingencies are met, the monies in escrow go to the issuer with the underwriters retaining their appropriate compensation. In order to make sure that investors are properly protected, the escrow account must be maintained at a bank for the benefit of the investors until every appropriate event or contingency has occurred. Then, the funds are properly returned to the investors. If the money is to be placed into an interest bearing account, it must have a maturity date no later than the closing date of the offering, or the account must be redeemable at face with no prepayment penalty as regards principal.

Underwriter Compensation Hierarchy

As we have seen, in a firm commitment the underwriter buys the entire issue from the issuer and then attempts to resell it to the public. The price at which the syndicate offers the securities to the public is known as the public offering price. It is the price printed on the front page of the prospectus.

However, the managing underwriter pays the issuer a lower price than this for the securities. The difference between that lower price and the public offering price is known as the spread or underwriting discount. Everyone involved in the sale of a new issue is compensated by receiving part of the spread. The amount of the spread is the subject of negotiations between the issuer and the managing underwriter, but usually is within a range established by similar transactions between comparable issuers and underwriters. The spread is also subject to NASD [now FINRA] review and approval before sales may commence. The spread is broken down by the underwriters so that a portion of it is paid to the managing underwriter for finding and packaging the issue and managing the offering (usually called the manager’s fee); and a portion is retained by each underwriter (called the underwriting or syndicate allowance) to compensate the syndicate members for their expenses, use of money, and assuming the risk of the underwriting. The remaining portion is allocated to the selling group and is called selling concession. It is often useful to remember the compensation hierarchy pecking order in the following way:

Spread (syndicate manager).
Underwriters allowance (syndicate members)
Selling concession (selling group members)
Re-allowance (any other firm)

While the above deal with corporate equity, the only other significant item with respect to corporate debt is the Trust Indenture Act of 1939. This Federal law applies to public issues of debt securities in excess of $5,000,000. The thrust of this act is to require an indenture with an independent trustee (usually a bank or trust company) who will report to the holders of the debt securities on a regular basis.

Successful marketing of a new issue is a marriage between somewhat alien factors: compliance and numerous Federal, state, and self-regulatory rules and statutes; along with finely honed and profit-motivated sales techniques. It’s not too hard to see that there could be a real, or apparent, conflict of interest here. Most successful investment bankers have built their excellent reputations upon their ability to properly balance these two objectives consistently, year after year.

PART ONE:

Understanding investment banking rules, securities markets, brokerage accounts, margin and debt

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Conclusion

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Modern Portfolio Theory and Asset Allocation [Not Correlation]

Posted on April 29, 2024 by Dr. David Edward Marcinko MBA MEd CMP™

THE CORRELATION HOT TOPIC

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By Dr. David Edward Marcinko MBA CMP©

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Modern Portfolio Theory approaches investing by examining the complete market and the full economy. MPT places a great emphasis on the correlation between investments.

DEFINITION:

Correlation is a measure of how frequently one event tends to happen when another event happens. High positive correlation means two events usually happen together – high SAT scores and getting through college for instance. High negative correlation means two events tend not to happen together – high SATs and a poor grade record.

No correlation means the two events are independent of one another. In statistical terms two events that are perfectly correlated have a “correlation coefficient” of 1; two events that are perfectly negatively correlated have a correlation coefficient of -1; and two events that have zero correlation have a coefficient of 0.

Correlation has been used over the past twenty years by institutions and financial advisors to assemble portfolios of moderate risk. In calculating correlation, a statistician would examine the possibility of two events happening together, namely:

If the probability of A happening is 1/X;
And the probability of B happening is 1/Y; then
The probability of A and B happening together is (1/X) times (1/Y), or 1/(X times Y).

There are several laws of correlation including;

Combining assets with a perfect positive correlation offers no reduction in portfolio risk. These two assets will simply move in tandem with each other.
Combining assets with zero correlation (statistically independent) reduces the risk of the portfolio. If more assets with uncorrelated returns are added to the portfolio, significant risk reduction can be achieved.
Combing assets with a perfect negative correlation could eliminate risk entirely. This is the principle with “hedging strategies”. These strategies are discussed later in the book.

Citation: https://www.r2library.com/Resource/Title/0826102549

BUT – CORRELATION IS NOT CAUSATION

https://medicalexecutivepost.com/2021/02/05/correlation-is-not-causation/

In the real world, negative correlations are very rare

Most assets maintain a positive correlation with each other. The goal of a prudent investor is to assemble a portfolio that contains uncorrelated assets. When a portfolio contains assets that possess low correlations, the upward movement of one asset class will help offset the downward movement of another. This is especially important when economic and market conditions change.

As a result, including assets in your portfolio that are not highly correlated will reduce the overall volatility (as measured by standard deviation) and may also increase long-term investment returns. This is the primary argument for including dissimilar asset classes in your portfolio. Keep in mind that this type of diversification does not guarantee you will avoid a loss. It simply minimizes the chance of loss.

In the table provided by Ibbotson, the average correlation between the five major asset classes is displayed. The lowest correlation is between the U.S. Treasury Bonds and the EAFE (international stocks). The highest correlation is between the S&P 500 and the EAFE; 0.77 or 77 percent. This signifies a prominent level of correlation that has grown even larger during this decade. Low correlations within the table appear most with U.S. Treasury Bills.

Historical Correlation of Asset Classes

Benchmark 1 2 3 4 5 6

1 U.S. Treasury Bill 1.00

2 U.S. Bonds 0.73 1.00

3 S&P 500 0.03 0.34 1.00

4 Commodities 0.15 0.04 0.08 1.00

5 International Stocks -0.13 -0.31 0.77 0.14 1.00

6 Real Estate 0.11 0.43 0.81 -0.02 0.66 1.00

Table Source: Ibbotson 1980-2012

Comprehensive Financial Planning Strategies for Doctors and Advisors: Best Practices from Leading Consultants and Certified Medical Planners™

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Behavioral Finance for Doctors?

Posted on April 27, 2024 by Dr. David Edward Marcinko MBA MEd CMP™

On the Psychology of Investing [Book Review]

By Peter Benedek, PhD CFA

Founder: www.RetirementAction.com

Some of the pioneers of behavioral finance are Drs. Kahneman, Twersky and Thaler. This short introduction to the subject is based on John Nofsinger’s little book entitled “Psychology of Investing” an excellent quick read for all medical professionals or anyone who is interested in learning more about behavioral finance.

Rational Decisions?

Much of modern finance is built on the assumption that investors “make rational decisions” and “are unbiased in their predictions about the future”, however this is not always the case.

Cognitive errors come from (1) prospect theory (people feel good/bad about gain/loss of $500, but not twice as good/bad about a gain/loss of $1,000; they feel worse about a $500 loss than feel good about a $500 gain); (2) mental accounting (meaning that people tend to create separate buckets which they examine individually), (3) Self-deception (e.g. overconfidence), (4) heuristic simplification (shortcuts) and (4) mood can affect ability to reach a logical conclusion.

John Nofsinger’s Book

The following are some of the major chapter headings in Nofsinger’s book, and represent some of the key behavioral finance concepts.

Overconfidence leads to: (1) excessive trading (which in turn results in lower returns due to costs incurred), (2) underestimation of risk (portfolios of decreasing risk were found for single men, married men, married women, and single women), (3) illusion of knowledge (you can get a lot more data nowadays on the internet) and (4) illusion of control (on-line trading).

Pride and Regret leads to: (1) disposition effect (not only selling winners and holding on to the losers, but selling winners too soon- confirming how smart I was, and losers to late- not admitting a bad call, even though selling losers increases one’s wealth due to the tax benefits), (2) reference points (the point from where one measures gains or losses is not necessarily the purchase price, but may perhaps be the most recent 52 week high and it is most likely changing continuously- clearly such a reference point will affect investor’s judgment by perhaps holding on to “loser” too long when in fact it was a winner.)

Considering the Past in decisions about the future, when future outcomes are independent of the past lead to a whole slew of more bad decisions, such as: (1) house money effect (willing to increase the level of risk taken after recent winnings- i.e. playing with house’s money), (2) risk aversion or snake-bite effect (becoming more risk averse after losing money), (3) trying to break-even (at times people will increase their willing to take higher risk to try to recover their losses- e.g. double or nothing), (4) endowment or status quo effect (often people are only prepared to sell something they own for more than they would be willing to buy it- i.e. for investments people tend to do nothing, just hold on to investments they already have) (5) memory and decision making ( decisions are affected by how long ago did the pain/pleasure occur or what was the sequence of pain and pleasure), (6) cognitive dissonance (people avoid important decisions or ignore negative information because of pain associated with circumstances).

Mental Accounting is the act of bucketizing investments and then reviewing the performance of the individual buckets separately (e.g. investing at low savings rate while paying high credit card interest rates).

Examples of mental accounting are: (1) matching costs to benefits (wanting to pay for vacation before taking it and getting paid for work after it was done, even though from perspective of time value of money the opposite should be preferred0, (2) aversion to debt (don’t like long-term debt for short-term benefit), (3) sunk-cost effect (illogically considering non-recoverable costs when making forward-going decisions). In investing, treating buckets separately and ignoring interaction (correlations) induces people not to sell losers (even though they get tax benefits), prevent them from investing in the stock market because it is too risky in isolation (however much less so when looked at as part of the complete portfolio including other asset classes and labor income and occupied real estate), thus they “do not maximize the return for a given level of risk taken).

In building portfolios, assets included should not be chosen on basis of risk and return only, but also correlation; even otherwise well educated individuals make the mistake of assuming that adding a risky asset to a portfolio will increase the overall risk, when in fact the opposite will occur depending on the correlation of the asset to be added with the portfolio (i.e. people misjudge or disregard interactions between buckets, which are key determinants of risk).

This can lead to: (1) building behavioral portfolios (i.e. safety, income, get rich, etc type sub-portfolios, resulting in goal diversification rather than asset diversification), (2) naïve diversification (when aiming for 50:50 stock:bond allocation implementing this as 50:50 in both tax-deferred (401(k)/RRSP) accounts and taxable accounts, rather than placing the bonds in the tax-deferred and stocks in taxable accounts respectively for tax advantages), (3) naïve diversification in retirement accounts (if five investment options are offered then investing 1/5th in each, thus getting an inappropriate level of diversification or no diversification depending on the available choices; or being too heavily invested in one’s employer’s stock).

Representativenes may lead investors to confusing a good company with a good investment (good company may already be overpriced in the market; extrapolating past returns or momentum investing), and familiarity to over-investment in one’s own employer (perhaps inappropriate as when stock tanks one’s job may also be at risk) or industry or country thus not having a properly diversified portfolio.

Emotions can affect investment decisions: mood/feelings/optimism will affect decision to buy or sell risky or conservative assets, even though the mood resulted from matters unrelated to investment. Social interactions such as friends/coworkers/clubs and the media (e.g. CNBC) can lead to herding effects like over (under) valuation.

Financial Strategies

Nofsinger finishes with a final chapter which includes strategies for:

(i) beating the biases: (1) Understand the biases, (2) define your investment objectives, (3) have quantitative investment criteria, i.e. understand why you are buying a specific investor (or even better invest in a passive fashion), (4) diversify among asset classes and within asset classes (and don’t over invest in your employer’s stock), and (5) control your investment environment (check on stock monthly, trade only monthly and review progress toward goals annually).

(ii) using biases for the good: (1) set new employee defaults for retirement plans to being enrolled, (2) get employees to commit some percent of future raises to automatically go toward retirement (save-more-tomorrow).

Assessment

Buy the book (you can get used copies through Amazon). As indicated it is a quick read and occasionally you may even want to re-read it to insure you avoid the biases or use them for the good. Also, the book has long list of references for those inclined to delve into the subject more deeply.

You might even ask “How does all this Behavioral Finance coexist with Efficient Market theory?” and that’s a great question that I’ll leave for another time.

More: SSRN-id2596202

Conclusion

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INVESTMENT BANKING UPDATE: Rules, securities markets, brokerage accounts, margin and debt review

Posted on April 17, 2024 by Dr. David Edward Marcinko MBA MEd CMP™

http://www.MARCINKOAssociates.com

A Primer for Investors and Entrepreneurial Medical Professionals

Dr. David Edward Marcinko; MBA, CMP™

SPONSOR: http://www.CertifiedMedicalPlanner.org

Investment banking is so back. All of the biggest banks have reported their first-quarter 2024 results, and their earnings have been as good as, if not better than, expected. Higher interest rates ate into the spoils—Bank of America reported yesterday that its profit dropped 18% compared to the same period last year—but investment banking arms did well, especially since many banks increased their fees, and deal making and IPOs started to pick up again. But despite perking up, investment banking activity is still below where it used to be. Strong consumer spending also helped banks out, with credit card income rising and people and businesses continuing to need loans.

[PART 1 OF 8]

Introduction

The history, function and processes of the investment banking industry, and the rules and regulations of the securities industry and their respective markets, as well as the use of brokerage accounts, margin and debt, will be briefly reviewed in this ME-P series.

An understanding of these concepts is required of all doctors and medical professionals as they pursue a personal investment strategy.

INVESTMENT BANKING AND SECURITIES UNDERWRITING

New economy corporate events of the past several years have provided many financial signs and symptoms that indicate a creeping securitization of the for-profit healthcare industrial complex. Similarly, fixed income medical investors should understand how Federal and State regulations impact upon personal and public debt needs. For, without investment banking firms, it would be almost impossible for private industry, medical corporations and government to raise needed capital.

Introduction

When a corporation such as a physician practice management company (PPMC), or similar entity needs, to raise capital for growth or expansion, there are two methods. Raising debt or equity. If equity is used, the corporation can market securities directly to the public by contacting its current stockholders and asking them to purchase the new securities in a rights offering, by advertising or by hiring salespeople. Although this last example is somewhat exaggerated, it illustrates that there is a cost to selling new securities, which may be considerable if the firm itself undertakes the task.

For this reason, most corporations employ help in marketing new securities by using the services of investment bankers who sell new securities to the general public. Although the investment banking is an exciting and vital industry, many SEC rules regulating it are not. Nevertheless, it is important for all physician executives to understand basic concepts of the industry if raising public money is ever a possibility or anticipated goal. It is also important for individual healthcare investors to understand something about securities underwriting to reduce the likelihood of fraudulent investment schemes or ill-conceived transactions which ultimately result in monetary loss.

Fundamentals of the Investment Banking Industry

Investment bankers are not really bankers at all. The fact that the word banker appears in the name is partially responsible for the false impressions that exist in the medical community regarding the functions they perform.

For example, they are not permitted to accept deposit, provide checking accounts, or perform other activities normally construed to be commercial banking activities. An investment bank is simply a firm that specializes in helping other corporations obtain the money they need under the most advantageous terms possible.

When it comes to the actual process of having securities issued, the corporation approaches an investment banking firm, either directly, or through a competitive selection process and asks it to act as adviser and distributor. Investment bankers, or under writers, as they are sometimes called, are middlemen in the capital markets for corporate securities.

The medical corporation requiring the funds discuss the amount, type of security to be issued, price and other features of the security, as well as the cost to issuing the securities. All of these factors are negotiated in a process known as known as negotiated underwriting. If mutually acceptable terms are reached, the investment banking firm will be the middle man through which the securities are sold to the general public. Since such firms have many customers, they are able to sell new securities, without the costly search that individual corporations may require to sell its own security. Thus, although the firm in need of additional capital must pay for the service, it is usually able to raise the additional capital at less expense through the use of an investment banker, than by selling the securities itself.

The agreement between the investment banker and the corporation may be one of two types. The investment bank may agree to purchase, or underwrite, the entire issue of securities and to re-offer them to the general public. This is known as a firm commitment.

When an investment banker agrees to underwrite such a sale, it agrees to supply the corporation with a specified amount of money. The firm buys the securities with the intention to resell them. If it fails to sell the securities, the investment banker must still pay the agreed upon sum. Thus, the risk of selling rests with the underwriter and not with the company issuing the securities.

The alternative agreement is a best efforts agreement in which the investment banker makes his best effort to sell the securities acting on behalf of the issuer, but does not guarantee a specified amount of money will be raised.

When a corporation raises new capital through a public offering of stock, on might inquire from where does the stock come? The only source the corporation has is authorized, but previously un-issued stock. Anytime authorized, but previously un-issued stock (new stock) is issued to the public, it is known as a primary offering. If it’s the very first time the corporation is making the offering, it’s also known as the Initial Public Offering (IPO). Anytime there is a primary offering of stock, the issuing corporation is raising additional equity capital.

A secondary offering, or distribution, on the other hand, is defied as an offering of a large block of outstanding stock. Most frequently, a secondary offering is the sale of a large block of stock owned by one or more stockholders. It is stock that has previously been issued and is now being re-sold by investors. Another case would be when a corporation re-sells its treasury stock.

Prior to any further discussions of investment banking, there are several industry terms that’s should be defined.

For example, an agent buys or sells securities for the account and risk of another party, and charges a commission. In the securities business, the terms broker and agent are used synonymously. This is not true of the insurance industry.

On the other hand, a principal is one who acts as a dealer rather than an agent or broker. A dealer buys and sells for his own account Finally, the dealer makes money by buying at one price and selling at a higher price. Thus, it is easy to understand how an investment banking firm earns money handling a best efforts offering; they make a commission on every share they sell.

The Securities Act of 1933 (Act of Full Disclosure)

When a corporation makes a public offering of its stock, it is bound by the provisions of the Securities Act of 1933, which is also known as the Act of Full Disclosure. The primary requirement of the Act is that the corporation must file a registration statement (full disclosure) with the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC); containing some of the following items:

Description of the business entity raising the money.
Biographical data regarding officers and directors of the issuer.
Listing of share holdings of officers, directors, and holders of more than 10% of the issuer’s securities (insiders).
Financial statements including a breakdown of existing capitalization (existing debt and equity structure).
Intended use of offering proceeds.
Legal proceedings involving the issuer, such as suits, antitrust actions or strikes.

Acting in its capacity as an adviser to the corporation, the investment banking firm files out the registration statement with the SEC. It then takes the SEC a period of time to review the information in the registration statement. This is the “cooling off period” and the issue is said to be “in registration” during this time. When the Act written in 1933, Congress thought that 20 days would be enough time from the filing date, until the effective date the sale of securities is permitted.

In reality, it frequently takes much longer than 20 days for the SEC to complete its review. But, regardless of how long it lasts, it’s known as the cooling off period. At the end of the cooling off period, the SEC will either accept the issue or they will send a letter back to the issuer, and the underwriter, explaining that there is incomplete information in the registration statement. This letter is known as a deficiency letter. It will postpone the effectiveness of the registration statement until the deficiency is remedied. Even if initially, or eventually approved, an effective registration does not mean that the SEC has approved the issue.

For example, the following well known disclaimer statement written in bold red ink, is required to be placed in capital letters on the front cover page of every prospectus:

###

THESE SECURITIES HAVE NOT BEEN APPROVED OR DISAPPROVED BY THE SECURITIES AND EXCHANGE COMMISSION NOR HAS THE COMMISSION PASSED UPON THE ACCURACY OR ADEQUACY OF THIS PROSPECTUS. ANY REPRESENTATION TO THE CONTRARY IS A CRIMINAL OFFENSE.

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During the cooling off period, the investment bank tries to create interest in the market place for the issue. In order to do that, it distributes a preliminary prospectus, more commonly known as a “red herring”. It is known as a red herring because of the red lettering on the front page. The statement on the very top with the date is printed in red as well as the statements on the left hand margin of the preliminary prospectus.

The cost of printing the red herring is borne by the investment bank, since they are trying to market it.. The red herring includes information from the registration statement that will be most helpful for potential medical investors trying to make a decision. It describes the company and the securities to be issued; includes the firm’s financial statements; its current activities; the regulatory bodies to which it is subject; the nature of its competition; the management of the corporation, and what the expected proceeds will be used for. Two very important items missing from the red herring are the public offering price and the effective date of the issue, as neither are known for certain at this point in time.

The public offering price is generally determined on the date that the securities become effective for sale (effective date). Waiting until the last minute enables the investment bankers to price the new issue in line with current market conditions. Since the investment banker uses the red herring to try to create interest in the market place, stock brokers [aka: Registered Representatives (RRs) with a Series # 7 general securities license – After a 2 hour multiple-choice computerize test, I held this license for a decade ) will send copies of the red herring to their clients for whom they feel the issue is a suitable investment. The SEC is very strict on what can be said about an issue, in registration.

In fact, during the pre-filing period (the time when the negotiations are going on between the issuer\and underwriter), absolutely nothing can be said about it to anyone. For example, if the regulators find out that your stock broker discussed with you the fact that his firm was negotiating with an issuer for a possible public offering, he could be fined, or jailed.

During the cooling off period (the time when the red herring is being distributed), nothing may be sent to you; not a research report, nor a recommendation from another firm, or even the sales literature. The only thing you are permitted to receive is the red herring. The red herring is used to acquaint prospects with essential information about the offering. If you are interested in purchasing the security, then you will receive an “indication of interest”, but you can still not make a purchase or send money.

No sales may be made until the effective date; all that can be used to generate interest is the red herring.

Conclusion

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FINANCIAL PLANNING: Strategies for Doctors and their Advisors

Posted on April 7, 2024 by Dr. David Edward Marcinko MBA MEd CMP™

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BY DR. DAVID E. MARCINKO MBA CMP®

SPONSOR: http://www.CertifiedMedicalPlanner.org

REVIEWS:

Written by doctors and healthcare professionals, this textbook should be mandatory reading for all medical school students—highly recommended for both young and veteran physicians—and an eliminating factor for any financial advisor who has not read it. The book uses jargon like ‘innovative,’ ‘transformational,’ and ‘disruptive’—all rightly so! It is the type of definitive financial lifestyle planning book we often seek, but seldom find.
—LeRoy Howard MA CMP^TM,Candidate and Financial Advisor, Fayetteville, North Carolina

I taught diagnostic radiology for over a decade. The physician-focused niche information, balanced perspectives, and insider industry transparency in this book may help save your financial life.
—Dr. William P. Scherer MS, Barry University, Ft. Lauderdale, Florida

This book was crafted in response to the frustration felt by doctors who dealt with top financial, brokerage, and accounting firms. These non-fiduciary behemoths often prescribed costly wholesale solutions that were applicable to all, but customized for few, despite ever-changing needs. It is a must-read to learn why brokerage sales pitches or Internet resources will never replace the knowledge and deep advice of a physician-focused financial advisor, medical consultant, or collegial Certified Medical Planner™ financial professional.
—Parin Khotari MBA,Whitman School of Management, Syracuse University, New York

In today’s healthcare environment, in order for providers to survive, they need to understand their current and future market trends, finances, operations, and impact of federal and state regulations. As a healthcare consulting professional for over 30 years supporting both the private and public sector, I recommend that providers understand and utilize the wealth of knowledge that is being conveyed in these chapters. Without this guidance providers will have a hard time navigating the supporting system which may impact their future revenue stream. I strongly endorse the contents of this book.—Carol S. Miller BSN MBA PMP,President, Miller Consulting Group, ACT IAC Executive Committee Vice-Chair at-Large, HIMSS NCA Board Member

This is an excellent book on financial planning for physicians and health professionals. It is all inclusive yet very easy to read with much valuable information. And, I have been expanding my business knowledge with all of Dr. Marcinko’s prior books. I highly recommend this one, too. It is a fine educational tool for all doctors.—Dr. David B. Lumsden MD MS MA,Orthopedic Surgeon, Baltimore, Maryland

There is no other comprehensive book like it to help doctors, nurses, and other medical providers accumulate and preserve the wealth that their years of education and hard work have earned them.
—Dr. Jason Dyken MD MBA,Dyken Wealth Strategies, Gulf Shores, Alabama

I plan to give a copy of this book written ‘by doctors and for doctors’ to all my prospects, physician, and nurse clients. It may be the definitive text on this important topic.
—Alexander Naruska CPA,Orlando, Florida

Health professionals are small business owners who need to apply their self-discipline tactics in establishing and operating successful practices. Talented trainees are leaving the medical profession because they fail to balance the cost of attendance against a realistic business and financial plan. Principles like budgeting, saving, and living below one’s means, in order to make future investments for future growth, asset protection, and retirement possible are often lacking. This textbook guides the medical professional in his/her financial planning life journey from start to finish. It ranks a place in all medical school libraries and on each of our bookshelves.
—Dr. Thomas M. DeLauro DPM,Professor and Chairman – Division of Medical Sciences, New York College of Podiatric Medicine

Physicians are notoriously excellent at diagnosing and treating medical conditions. However, they are also notoriously deficient in managing the business aspects of their medical practices. Most will earn $20-30 million in their medical lifetime, but few know how to create wealth for themselves and their families. This book will help fill the void in physicians’ financial education. I have two recommendations: 1) every physician, young and old, should read this book; and 2) read it a second time!
—Dr. Neil Baum MD,Clinical Associate Professor of Urology, Tulane Medical School, New Orleans, Louisiana

I worked with a Certified Medical Planner™ on several occasions in the past, and will do so again in the future. This book codified the vast body of knowledge that helped in all facets of my financial life and professional medical practice.
—Dr. James E. Williams DABPS, Foot and Ankle Surgeon, Conyers, Georgia

This is a constantly changing field for rules, regulations, taxes, insurance, compliance, and investments. This book assists readers, and their financial advisors, in keeping up with what’s going on in the healthcare field that all doctors need to know.
—Patricia Raskob CFP^® EA ATA, Raskob Kambourian Financial Advisors, Tucson, Arizona

I particularly enjoyed reading the specific examples in this book which pointed out the perils of risk … something with which I am too familiar and have learned (the hard way) to avoid like the Black Death. It is a pleasure to come across this kind of wisdom, in print, that other colleagues may learn before it’s too late— many, many years down the road.
—Dr. Robert S. Park MD, Robert Park and Associates Insurance, Seattle, Washington

Although this book targets physicians, I was pleased to see that it also addressed the financial planning and employment benefit needs of nurses; physical, respiratory, and occupational therapists; CRNAs, hospitalists, and other members of the health care team….highly readable, practical, and understandable.
—Nurse Cecelia T. Perez RN, Hospital Operating Room Manager, Ellicott City, Maryland

Personal financial success in the PP-ACA era will be more difficult to achieve than ever before. It requires the next generation of doctors to rethink frugality, delay gratification, and redefine the very definition of success and work–life balance. And, they will surely need the subject matter medical specificity and new-wave professional guidance offered in this book. This book is a ‘must-read’ for all health care professionals, and their financial advisors, who wish to take an active role in creating a new subset of informed and pioneering professionals known as Certified Medical Planners™.
—Dr. Mark D. Dollard FACFAS, Private Practice, Tyson Corner, Virginia

As healthcare professionals, it is our Hippocratic duty to avoid preventable harm by paying attention. On the other hand, some of us are guilty of being reckless with our own financial health—delaying serious consideration of investments, taxation, retirement income, estate planning, and inheritances until the worry keeps one awake at night. So, if you have avoided planning for the future for far too long, perhaps it is time to take that first step toward preparedness. This in-depth textbook is an excellent starting point—not only because of its readability, but because of his team’s expertise and thoroughness in addressing the intricacies of modern investments—and from the point of view of not only gifted financial experts, but as healthcare providers, as well … a rare combination.
—Dr. Darrell K. Pruitt DDS, Private Practice Dentist, Fort Worth, Texas

This text should be on the bookshelf of all contemporary physicians. The book is physician-focused with unique topics applicable to all medical professionals. But, it also offers helpful insights into the new tax and estate laws, fiduciary accountability for advisors and insurance agents, with investing, asset protection and risk management, and retirement planning strategies with updates for the brave new world of global payments of the Patient Protection and Affordable Care Act. Starting out by encouraging readers to examine their personal ‘money blueprint’ beliefs and habits, the book is divided into four sections offering holistic life cycle financial information and economic education directed to new, mid-career, and mature physicians.

This structure permits one to dip into the book based on personal need to find relief, rather than to overwhelm. Given the complexity of modern domestic healthcare, and the daunting challenges faced by physicians who try to stay abreast of clinical medicine and the ever-evolving laws of personal finance, this textbook could not have come at a better time.
—Dr. Philippa Kennealy MD MPH, The Entrepreneurial MD, Los Angeles, California

Physicians have economic concerns unmatched by any other profession, arriving ten years late to the start of their earning years. This textbook goes to the core of how to level the playing field quickly, and efficaciously, by a new breed of dedicated Certified Medical Planners™. With physician-focused financial advice, each chapter is a building block to your financial fortress.
—Thomas McKeon, MBA, Pharmaceutical Representative, Philadelphia, Pennsylvania

An excellent resource … this textbook is written in a manner that provides physician practice owners with a comprehensive guide to financial planning and related topics for their professional practice in a way that is easily comprehended. The style in which it breaks down the intricacies of the current physician practice landscape makes it a ‘must-read’ for those physicians (and their advisors) practicing in the volatile era of healthcare reform.
—Robert James Cimasi, MHA ASA FRICS MCBA CVA CM&AA CMP™, CEO-Health Capital Consultants, LLC, St. Louis, Missouri

Rarely can one find a full compendium of information within a single source or text, but this book communicates the new financial realities we are forced to confront; it is full of opportunities for minimizing tax liability and maximizing income potential. We’re recommending it to all our medical practice management clients across the entire healthcare spectrum.
—Alan Guinn, The Guinn Consultancy Group, Inc., Cookeville, Tennessee

Dr. David Edward Marcinko MBA CMP™ and his team take a seemingly endless stream of disparate concepts and integrate them into a simple, straightforward, and understandable path to success. And, he codifies them all into a step-by-step algorithm to more efficient investing, risk management, taxation, and enhanced retirement planning for doctors and nurses. His text is a vital read—and must execute—book for all healthcare professionals and physician-focused financial advisors.
—Dr. O. Kent Mercado, JD, Private Practitioner and Attorney, Naperville, Illinois

Kudos. The editors and contributing authors have compiled the most comprehensive reference book for the medical community that has ever been attempted. As you review the chapters of interest and hone in on the most important concerns you may have, realize that the best minds have been harvested for you to plan well… Live well.
—Martha J. Schilling; AAMS^® CRPC^® ETSC CSA, Shilling Group Advisors, LLC, Philadelphia, Pennsylvania

I recommend this book to any physician or medical professional that desires an honest no-sales approach to understanding the financial planning and investing world. It is worthwhile to any financial advisor interested in this space, as well.
—David K. Luke, MIM MS-PFP CMP™, Net Worth Advisory Group, Sandy, Utah

Although not a substitute for a formal business education, this book will help physicians navigate effectively through the hurdles of day-to-day financial decisions with the help of an accountant, financial and legal advisor. I highly recommend it and commend Dr. Marcinko and the Institute of Medical Business Advisors, Inc. on a job well done.
—Ken Yeung MBA CMP™, Tseung Kwan O Hospital, Hong Kong

I’ve seen many ghost-written handbooks, paperbacks, and vanity-published manuals on this topic throughout my career in mental healthcare. Most were poorly written, opinionated, and cheaply produced self-aggrandizing marketing drivel for those agents selling commission-based financial products and expensive advisory services. So, I was pleasantly surprised with this comprehensive peer-reviewed academic textbook, complete with citations, case examples, and real-life integrated strategies by and for medical professionals. Although a bit late for my career, I recommend it highly to all my younger colleagues … It’s credibility and specificity stand alone.
—Dr. Clarice Montgomery PhD MA,Retired Clinical Psychologist

In an industry known for one-size-fits-all templates and massively customized books, products, advice, and services, the extreme healthcare specificity of this text is both refreshing and comprehensive.
—Dr. James Joseph Bartley, Columbus, Georgia

My brother was my office administrator and accountant. We both feel this is the most comprehensive textbook available on financial planning for healthcare providers.
—Dr. Anthony Robert Naruska DC,Winter Park, Florida

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DAILY UPDATE: March Round-Up as Stocks End their Best First Quarter in Five Years

Posted on April 1, 2024 by Dr. David Edward Marcinko MBA MEd CMP™

By Staff Reporters

APRIL FOOL’S DAY

April Fools’ Day customs date back to at least Renaissance Europe, but it’s likely the tradition originated long before then. Some historians have linked April Fools’ Day to the ancient Roman festival of “Hilaria,” where at the end of March, people would come together to commemorate the resurrection of the god Attis. It was a celebration of renewal in which revelers would dress up in disguises and imitate others.

It’s also possible that the medieval celebration of the Feast of Fools, where a mock bishop or pope was elected and church customs were parodied, could have inspired the day.

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Stocks had their best Q1 in five years. The S&P 500 ended Thursday—the last trading day of the quarter—up by more than 10%, marking its best start to a year since 2019.

The AI craze, record corporate profits, and optimism around cooling inflation are all contributing to the stock boom. The economy got more good news yesterday when the Stocks had their best Q1 in five years reported that several key gauges, including GDP and consumer spending, grew in Q4 of last year.

And, that’s not all: Home sales bounced back after a January slump, jobless claims fell, and advertisers raised their full-year forecast. Consumer sentiment is now at its highest level since 2021.

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OUR VIRTUAL BUSINESS MODEL: Financial and Management Consulting for Physicians

Posted on March 3, 2024 by Dr. David Edward Marcinko MBA MEd CMP™

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SPONSOR: http://www.MARCINKOASSOCIATES.com

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OUR VIRTUAL CONSULTING BUSINESS MODEL

Our virtual consulting model at DE MARCINKO & ASSOCIATES offer services to their clients primarily or entirely online, by phone or video-conference.

This means that no matter where you are or choose to live, you’re always just an email, telephone call or Zoom® conference away from a face-to-face meeting.

THE CONSULTATION IS VIRTUAL – THE INFORMATIONAL ADVICE IS REAL !

READ HERE: https://marcinkoassociates.com/virtual-networking/

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VINTAGE ESSAY: On the Growing Global Stock Trend

Posted on February 23, 2024 by Dr. David Edward Marcinko MBA MEd CMP™

By Rick Kahler MS CFP® http://www.KahlerFinancial.com

About twelve years ago the South Dakota Investment Council combined two of their asset classes, domestic and international stocks, into one, global stocks. While this move didn’t make the nightly news, it did signify a growing trend.

Many investment managers no longer view the US stock market as a separate asset class from the rest of the world’s stock markets.

Today they view it as one component of a global asset class of stocks.

Diversify

For the same reason you don’t want to own just one company’s stock in your portfolio, it makes no sense for an individual investing for retirement to own just US stocks. It’s as important to diversify among countries as among companies.

The question then becomes how much of a global stock portfolio should be in US stocks and how much in international stocks. For many years the standard thinking of portfolio managers was still to over-allocate to the US. It was, and to some degree still is, common to see 80% of a portfolio’s equity allocation in US stocks.

That over-allocation has never made a lot of sense to me, considering that the US accounts for far less than 80% of the global market capitalization. In the 1980’s, US companies accounted for about 65% of the global capitalization. Accordingly, I weighted my stock portfolios with 65% US and 35% international. By 1999, the US had slipped to 50%. I adjusted my portfolios accordingly.

The latest statistics from Dimensional Fund Advisors show the US still accounts for around 50% of the global capitalization. Investors who want to maintain a true global diversification of their stock portfolios will need to seriously consider reducing their US allocation.

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Which, Where and How to Invest

Which international stocks, then, should you add? Developed regions and countries like those of Europe, Australia Pacific, and Japan account for about 40% of the total global capitalization. Emerging market countries, many in Southwest Asia and Latin America, make up the remaining 10%. Weighting your portfolio accordingly gives you a well-diversified stock portfolio that has a high probability of withstanding the inevitable rise and fall of equity markets.

How do you invest globally? There are mutual funds that invest in specific countries, in regions, internationally, or globally. I don’t really like the country funds, as I don’t know which countries I should be underweighting or overweighting. Besides, creating a global index using country funds can be a lot of work and expense.

Using index regional funds is an easier way to invest in international stocks. To allocate according to the global capitalization percentages above, you would include three index mutual funds in your stock portfolio: one broad market US fund, an international fund of developed (non-emerging markets), and an emerging markets fund.

If you want even more simplicity, invest in one good global fund. The difference between an “international” fund and a “global” or “world” fund is that a global fund will include US stocks where an international fund won’t. Vanguard Total World Stock ETF comes to mind as one of the better “one size fits all” global funds that will invest in a mixture of countries, including the US. This one fund holds 7,164 stocks in 47 countries. You really need nothing more in the equity portion of your portfolio.

Assessment

While it isn’t necessary to allocate your stocks strictly according to global capitalization percentages, research suggest you will probably do better in the long run to do so. Whether you decide to own country, regional, international, or global funds, what’s most important is that you diversify your stock portfolio globally. In today’s world, it’s an important component of diversified investing.

Conclusion

OUR OTHER PRINT BOOKS AND RELATED INFORMATION SOURCES:

HOSPITALS: http://www.crcpress.com/product/isbn/9781466558731
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FINANCE: Financial Planning for Physicians and Advisors
INSURANCE: Risk Management and Insurance Strategies for Physicians and Advisors
Dictionary of Health Economics and Finance
Dictionary of Health Information Technology and Security
Dictionary of Health Insurance and Managed Care

LeRoy Howard MA CMP^TM [Candidate and Financial Advisor, Fayetteville, North Carolina]

http://www.CertifiedMedicalPlanner.org

Filed under: Experts Invited, Investing, Portfolio Management | Tagged: Dimensional Fund Advisors, global stocks, Investing, Rick Kahler CFP® | 3 Comments »

FINANCIAL ASSET CLASSES: Like a Box of Valentine Chocolates?

Posted on February 14, 2024 by Dr. David Edward Marcinko MBA MEd CMP™

On Valentine’s Day Diversification

By Rick Kahler MS CFP® ChFC CCIM

www.KahlerFinancial.com

The stock markets crashed yesterday after the new CPI report and update.

Nevertheless, with displays of Valentine candy in every store, February is the perfect time to talk about chocolate. A creative financial planner might even steal Forrest Gump’s analogy and say, “Diversification is like a box of chocolates.”

Except that it isn’t.

True, a box of chocolates might have a lot of variety. Cream centers. Caramels. Nougats. Nuts. Dark chocolate. Milk chocolate. Truffles. Yet it’s all still chocolate.

Retirement Savings

Buying that box would be like investing your retirement savings in a variety of US stocks. Even if you had a dozen different companies, they would all be the same basic category of investment, or asset class.

For example, suppose you gave your true love a slightly more diversified Valentine gift made up of chocolates, Girl Scout cookies, baklava, and apple pie. That would compare to investing in different types of stocks like US, international, or emerging markets. But, everything would still be dessert.

Wiser Physician-Investors

You would be a wiser doctor-investor if you took your true love out for dinner and had a meat course, a salad, vegetables, bread, dessert, and wine. Now you’d start to see real diversification.

In addition to US, international, and emerging market stocks (all dessert), you might have some other asset classes like US and international bonds (meat), real estate (bread), cash (salad), commodities (veggies), and absolute return strategies (wine).

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Long Term Growth Generator

This kind of asset class diversification is the best investment strategy for long-term growth. My preference is eight or nine different classes. For many clients, I recommend a mix of US and international stocks and bonds, real estate investment trusts, a commodities index fund, market neutral funds like merger arbitrage and managed futures, junk bonds, and Treasury Inflation Protected Securities (TIPS).

Market Fluctuations

Fluctuations in the market will tend to affect the various securities within a given asset class in the same way. Most US stocks, for example, would generally move up or down at the same times. So, owning shares of several different stocks wouldn’t protect you against changes in the market. When a portfolio is well-diversified, the volatility is reduced even during times when the markets are moving strongly up or down.

When I talk about investing in a variety of asset classes, I don’t mean owning stocks, real estate, gold, or other assets directly. For individual investors, mutual funds are a much better choice. Occasionally, someone will ask me, “But why should I have everything in mutual funds? That isn’t diversified, is it?”

Mutual Funds

Mutual funds are not an asset class. A mutual fund isn’t like a type of food; it’s like the plate you put the food on. A single plate might hold one food item or servings from several different food groups. More specifically, mutual funds are pools of money invested by managers. One fund might invest in real estate investment trusts (REITS). Another might have international stocks chosen for their high returns. Still others invest in a diversified mix of asset classes. The mutual fund is just the container that holds the investments.

[Courtesy GE Healthcare]

Annuities

Annuities and IRAs aren’t asset classes, either, but are also examples of different types of containers that hold investments. If you use your IRA to purchase an annuity, all you’re doing is stacking one plate on top of another. It doesn’t give you another asset class, it just costs you more for the second plate.

Assessment

Having a box of chocolates for dinner might seem more appealing in the short term than eating a balanced meal. Investing in the “get-rich-now” flavor of the month might seem tempting, too. Yet in the long run, asset class diversification is the best way to make sure you have a healthy investment diet.

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February 14th, 2024

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Conclusion

OUR OTHER PRINT BOOKS AND RELATED INFORMATION SOURCES:

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* 8

Filed under: "Ask-an-Advisor", Experts Invited, Financial Advisor Listings, Financial Planning, Investing, Portfolio Management | Tagged: annuities, asset allocation, diversification, ETFs, heart, Mutual Funds, REITS, Rick Kahler CFP®, Valentine Day | 4 Comments »

BUSINESS SCHOOL: Case Studies for Physicians and Healthcare CXOs

Posted on February 4, 2024 by Dr. David Edward Marcinko MBA MEd CMP™

MARCINKO ASSOCIATES, Inc.

http://www.MarcinkoAssociates.com

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READ – STUDY – LEARN – PROSPER

The Marcinko & Associates case study and white-paper compendium is a teaching vehicle that presents potential clients with a critical management issue that serves as a spring board to lively debate in which participants present and defend their analysis and prescriptions. The average case is 2 to 100 pages long (prose, tables, graphs, charts, spread sheets and figures, etc).

CASE MODEL Sample Privatization: https://tinyurl.com/3af5nf7s

Our two main types of cases are actual “field cases” based on onsite research, and “library cases”, written from public reference sources. We also write “Marcinko & Associates “armchair cases” based entirely on our general knowledge and subject matter experience.

PURCHASE: $99 PURCHASE “CASE MODELS IN HEALTHCARE“: https://tinyurl.com/26ke3n9w

Unfortunately and regardless of specialty, most doctors quickly realize there are few case model guidelines available to steer them through the day-to-day management maze. One solution is to discuss best-of-breed practices with leading practitioners in order to discern what successful doctors are doing [coaching concept].

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Filed under: "Ask-an-Advisor", "Doctors Only", Accounting, Career Development, Experts Invited, Health Economics, Health Insurance, Health Law & Policy, Healthcare Finance, Marcinko Associates, Op-Editorials, Portfolio Management, Practice Management, Research & Development | Tagged: business management, case models, case studies, david marcinko, Marcinko, Marcinko Associates, medical management, Practice Management | Leave a comment »

IMPLICATION OF WITHDRAWALS IN A MODERATE INTEREST RATE ENVIRONMENT

Posted on January 6, 2024 by Dr. David Edward Marcinko MBA MEd CMP™

A SPECIAL ME-P REPORT

A Retrospective Review … and Implications for Modernity

[Copyright Manning & Napier Advisors, Inc.]

By Jeff Coons PhD CFA

By Dr. David Edward Marcinko MBA CMP

SPONSOR: http://www.CertifiedMedicalPlanner.org

The general trend of declining interest rates experienced over the last several decades, part of a long-term trend Manning & Napier Advisors, Inc. and others have focused on since the early 1980’s, created new challenges for managing investment portfolios with regular and significant cash withdrawals.

Historical Review

This continuing report, first prepared 25 years ago, will provide an analysis of the investment implications of withdrawals in light of the secular shift in the economic and market conditions today. This analysis and historical review aims to guide decisions as to the appropriate level of withdrawals from an account in the more current moderate interest rate environment of 2014; and estimated thru to 2023.

The Questions

Declining interest rates restrict the ability to generate income from high quality investments, so a greater proportion of a given withdrawal requirement must come from the potential price appreciation of the securities. Of course, the inherently volatile nature of the financial markets makes price appreciation the less predictable of the sources of total return available to fund withdrawal needs.

The natural questions that arise from this observation include:

What withdrawal rate inhibits the ability to pursue long-term capital growth as a primary investment objective?

What withdrawal rate may create a significant risk of a sustained deterioration of capital?

What is a reasonable range of withdrawal rates given the relatively low interest rate environment that we face?

The answer to the first question can be derived from interest rates and dividend yields. With a dividend yield of 1.0%-2.0% on stocks (e.g., the yield on the S&P 500 Index as of December 2000 was 1.2%) and yields on intermediate-term and long-term fixed income securities between 5.0% and 6.0% (e.g., as of December 2000, a one-year Treasury Bill had a yield of 5.4% and a thirty-year Treasury bond had a yield of 5.5%), growth-oriented portfolios should generally produce a level of income adequate to allow 2.5%-3.5% withdrawals on an annual basis.

Thus, rates of withdrawal of less than 3.5% generally should not inhibit the pursuit of long-term capital growth as a primary investment objective.

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Management Approach

To establish the high end of the achievable withdrawals under a management approach pursuing long-term capital growth, consider some historical evidence.

Assume that withdrawals are taken from each of three portfolios (i.e., 100% stocks, 80% stocks/20% bonds, and 50% stocks/50% bonds using data from Ibbotson Associates, Inc.) starting at the beginning of 1973. How many years did it take to regain the original capital of the portfolio?

As can be seen in the following table, it took between 4-8 years for these portfolios to recover from the 1973-74 bear market with a 5.0% withdrawal rate. If withdrawals are at a 7.5% rate per year, over ten years elapsed before the original capital was restored.

Finally, with a 10.0% withdrawal rate, it took between 13-15 years to restore the capital. While the 1973-74 bear market was severe, it is not the worst bear market that can be used to illustrate the risk of significant withdrawals taken when the portfolio’s market value is depressed.

The clear conclusion is that withdrawals of greater than 5.0% are a potential impediment to pursuing long-term capital growth, given the long periods required to restore capital for the various growth-oriented asset mixes offered in this analysis.

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When Was Original (12/72) Capital Restored?
	0% W/D	5% W/D	0% W/D
100% Stock	9/80(7.75 years)	6/83(10.5 years)	6/86(14.5 years)
80% Stock/ 20% Bond	9/80(7.75 years)	3/83(10.25 years)	6/86(14.5 years)
50% Stock/ 50% Bond	12/76(4.0 years)	3/83(10.25 years)	3/87(15.25 years)

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Another key issue to remember is that the withdrawal rates above are a percentage of current market value, so the dollar value of the cash withdrawn from the account is assumed to decline in a bear market. However, most of us think of our withdrawal needs in terms of dollars instead of percentages (e.g., $50,000 from a $1,000,000 account, which translates to 5%).

If we attempt to maintain the dollar value of withdrawals in bear market periods, the percentage of current market value being withdrawn actually increases, and the impact on the portfolio far exceeds the example provided above.

SAMPLE:

To demonstrate, consider maintaining withdrawals of $50,000, $75,000 and $100,000 on an account with a $1,000,000 market value as of 12/72 (see table below).

In the case of a $50,000 annual withdrawal, approximately 8-10 years elapse before the original $1,000,000 market value is restored. If the withdrawals are $75,000 per year, 13 years elapse for the 50/50 asset mix and almost 19 years pass for the 80/20 asset mix before the $1,000,000 is restored. For the 100% stock portfolio, nearly 25 years elapse before the original $1,000,000 is restored.

Finally, for $100,000 withdrawals off of a $1,000,000 market value in 1972, all capital in the account is depleted within 10-15 years given these withdrawals. Thus, the risk of significant cash withdrawals having a detrimental impact on the ability to preserve and grow capital is much more pronounced when withdrawals remain high in dollar terms.

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When Was Original Capital ($1,000,000 in 12/72) Restored?
	$50,000 W/D	$75,000 W/D	$100,000 W/D
100% Stock	3/83(10.25 years)	9/97(24.75 years)	Capital Depleted9/83
80% Stock/ 20% Bond	12/80(8.0 years)	9/91(18.75 years)	Capital Depleted3/85
50% Stock/ 50% Bond	9/80(7.75 years)	3/86(13.25 years)	Capital Depleted9/87

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So far, the major point we have established is that a withdrawal rate of 2.5%-3.5% may be achievable without hampering the pursuit of long-term capital growth, but withdrawals of 5% or greater may have a significant impact on the ability to manage for growth. Therefore, accounts expected to experience withdrawals of 4%-5% (or greater) should be managed with a goal of satisfying these withdrawal needs on a regular basis first, with the pursuit of capital growth taking secondary importance.

However, the analysis provided above also implies that there is a rate of withdrawals that forces us to focus on capital preservation, because depletion of capital is a likely outcome. For withdrawals in the range of 10.0%, the example above shows that the risk of depletion of capital is significant at these high annual levels, especially if the withdrawals are on a dollar basis and not adjusted by the decline of current market value in a bear market.

In fact, with long-term U.S. government bond yields at approximately 5.0%-6.0%, annual withdrawals greater than 7.5% are likely to be too high to allow a manager to effectively pursue long-term capital growth without a high degree of risk to the capital of the account. That is, since attempts to provide returns above the current Treasury yields imply risk of volatility, and volatility can lead to the examples provided above, withdrawals at 7.5% or more and maintained on a dollar basis imply a high likelihood that original capital will be depleted over a 15-20 year period.

In general, the current level of yields in the market imply that management of a portfolio requiring over 7.5% per year in withdrawals faces a strong possibility of depleting capital under any scenario, and so portfolio management should focus on dampening market volatility so as to extend the life of the capital for as long as possible as it is drawn down.

Final Questions

The final question[s] (i.e., the appropriate level of withdrawals) is driven by both the client’s need for the assets and the parameters outlined above:

Withdrawals less than 3.5% of current market value should not inhibit the pursuit of long-term capital growth as a primary objective.
Withdrawal rates between 3.6% and 7.4% require a primary focus on satisfying withdrawal needs over the market cycle, possibly with a secondary goal of long-term capital growth to protect future withdrawal needs.
Withdrawal rates greater than 7.5% are likely to result in a depletion of capital, so the goal should be to manage the drawdown of capital by dampening year-to-year volatility of the portfolio.

While we all would like to achieve capital growth, the ability to pursue growth-oriented strategies depends on the flexibility to moderate withdrawals, if required by market conditions, and on the overall reliance on these assets.

As another example, an endowment can control its withdrawals to some extent, but there is a level beyond which the belt cannot be tightened without harming the services being funded.

Yet another example comes from a physician-executive or someone living primarily on an IRA account, especially after becoming accustomed to the high (and falling) interest rate/high asset return environment of the last fifteen years. Aggressively pursuing capital growth in the face of large withdrawals may result in exposure to significant risk of depletion of the IRA assets when other sources of income are unavailable.

If, on the other hand, the IRA was a small part of the wealth available in retirement, then there is some flexibility to work towards long-term capital growth.

Comprehensive Financial Planning Strategies for Doctors and Advisors: Best Practices from Leading Consultants

Implications for defined benefit retirement plans

A defined benefit retirement plan may have an outside source of funding to help restore capital (i.e., contributions from the employer), but defined contribution and Taft-Hartley plans have much less of a safety net. As a result, the risk taken to pursue growth in the face of significant withdrawals must take into account the nature of the assets and the problems associated with a deterioration of capital in the account.

Assessment

And so, withdrawals can have a significant impact on the ability of a manager to preserve capital and pursue long-term capital growth. However, while lessening the level of withdrawals will help provide flexibility for the manager to pursue these goals, the need for the assets may require that withdrawals are maintained at a certain level. Once withdrawals are minimized, the manager should focus on investment goals that correspond with this minimum level.

If withdrawals are below 3% of current market value, pursuit of long-term capital growth can be a primary objective. Withdrawals between 4% and 7.5% of market value on an annual basis require a focus on working towards satisfying these annual needs. Long-term capital growth, in this case, should be a secondary goal.

Finally, if withdrawals are above a 7.5% annual rate, then the investment management approach should focus on preserving capital and dampening market volatility so as to work towards allowing the assets to last as long as possible as they are drawn down.

NOTE: The 10-year Treasury rate’s just fell below 3.91% after Fed, ECB nominees; today.

Conclusion

This historical review paper provides a retrospective review of IRs and implications for modernity.

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Invite Dr. Marcinko

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DAILY UPDATE: DJIA Rockets Upward!

Posted on December 1, 2023 by Dr. David Edward Marcinko MBA MEd CMP™

By Staff Reporters

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SPONSOR: http://www.MarcinkoAssociates.com

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Here is where the major benchmarks ended:

The S&P 500 index was up 17.22 points (0.4%) at 4,567.80, up 8.9% for the month; the Dow Jones Industrial Average was up 520.47 points (1.5%) at 35,950.89, up 8.8% for the month; the NASDAQ Composite was down 32.27 points (0.2%) at 14,226.22, up 10.7% for the month.
The 10-year Treasury note yield (TNX) was up about 6 basis points at 4.33%.
CBOE® Volatility Index (VIX) was down 0.07 at 12.91.

The Dow’s gain Thursday was driven in part by Salesforce (CRM), which soared nearly 9% after the cloud software company reported stronger-than-expected quarterly results. The technology sector was otherwise soft, with the NASDAQ-100® (NDX) down 0.7% but still up 10.7% for the month. Small-cap stocks also posted a firm November, illustrated by a monthly gain of nearly 9% in the Russell 2000® Index (RUT).

And, Nathan Peterson, director of derivatives analysis at the Schwab Center for Financial Research, said the weakness in tech shares likely reflected consolidation after firm gains earlier this month. The NASDAQ Composite may also face some technical resistance around 14,350, a level where sellers stepped in back in July.

CITE: https://www.r2library.com/Resource

COMMENTS APPRECIATED

Thank You

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Filed under: "Ask-an-Advisor", Alternative Investments, Financial Planning, Funding Basics, Glossary Terms, Investing, Portfolio Management, Touring with Marcinko | Tagged: banks, CBOE, DJIAm, energy, gold, inflation, Marcinko, markets, metals, NASDAQ, Nathan Peterson, oil, real-estate, Russell Index 2000, RUT, S&P 500, Schwab, stock markets, TNX, utilities, VIX | Leave a comment »

Medical Endowment Fund Manager Selection

Posted on October 15, 2023 by Dr. David Edward Marcinko MBA MEd CMP™

Are External Financial Consultants Necessary?

[By Dr. David E. Marcinko MBA CMP]

http://www.CertifiedMedicalPlanner.org

John English, of the Ford Foundation, once observed that:

[T]he thing that is most interesting to me is that every one of the managers is able to give me a chart that shows me he was in the first quartile or the first decile. I have never had a prospective manager come in and say, ‘We’re in the fourth quartile or bottom decile’.

According to Wayne Firebaugh CPA, CFP® CMP™ most medical endowment funds today, even those with internal investment staff, rely heavily upon consultants and external managers.

In fact, a 2006 Commonfund Benchmarks Healthcare Study revealed that 85% of all surveyed institutions relied upon consultants with an even greater percentage of larger endowments relying upon consultants. The common reasons given by endowments for such reliance are augmenting staff and oddly enough, cost containment. In essence, the endowment staff’s job becomes one of managing the managers.

Manager Selection

Even those endowments that use consultants to assist in selecting outside managers remain involved in the selection and monitoring process. Interestingly, performance should generally not be the overriding criterion for selecting a manager. Selecting a manager could be viewed as a two-step process in which the endowment first establishes its initial allocation and determines what classes will require an external manager. The second part of the process is to select a manager that due diligence has indicated to have two primary characteristics: integrity and a repeatable and sustainable systematic process. These characteristics are interrelated, as a manager who embodies integrity will also strive to follow the established investment selection process.

Of Medical-Managers

In medicine, obtaining the best care often means consulting a specialist. As a manager of managers, the average endowment should seek specialist managers within a given asset class. Just as physicians and healthcare institutions gain additional insight and skill in their area of specialty, investment managers may be able to gain informational or system advantages within a given concentrated area of investments.

Assessment

Since most plan managers are seeking positive alpha by actively managing certain asset classes, many successful endowments will use a greater number of external managers in the concentrated segments than they will in the larger, more efficient markets.

Conclusion

OUR OTHER PRINT BOOKS AND RELATED INFORMATION SOURCES:

PHYSICIANS: www.MedicalBusinessAdvisors.com
HOSPITALS: http://www.crcpress.com/product/isbn/9781466558731
CLINICS: http://www.crcpress.com/product/isbn/9781439879900
ADVISORS: www.CertifiedMedicalPlanner.org
BLOG: www.MedicalExecutivePost.com
FINANCE: Financial Planning for Physicians and Advisors
INSURANCE: Risk Management and Insurance Strategies for Physicians and Advisors

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DAILY UPDATE: Strong Stock Index at Week’s End

Posted on October 7, 2023 by Dr. David Edward Marcinko MBA MEd CMP™

By Staff Reporters

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Here is where the major benchmarks ended this week:

The S&P 500 Index rose 50 points (1.2%) to 4,308.52 and gained 0.5% for the week; the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJI) was up 288 points (0.87%) at 33,407.58 but was down 0.3% for the week; the NASDAQ Composite was up 211 points (1.6%) at 13,431.34 and gained 1.6% for the week.
The 10-year Treasury note yield was up eight basis points at 4.788%.
CBOEs Volatility Index (VIX) fell one point to 17.47.

Energy shares were among the market’s strongest sectors behind a rebound in crude oil futures, though oil prices still ended down more than 8% for the week. Technology and industrial stocks were also strong.

Small-caps joined the upswing as the Russell 2000 Index (RUT) gained over 1% Friday but still ended the week with a loss of nearly 2%.

CITE: https://www.r2library.com/Resource

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Thank You

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OPEN LETTER: MARCINKO Associates, Inc.

Posted on September 23, 2023 by Dr. David Edward Marcinko MBA MEd CMP™

MISSION & PHYSICIAN COACHING STATEMENT

Open Letter from the CEO

Dr. David Edward Marcinko MBA CMP™

http://www.MarcinkoAssociates.com

ALL MEDICAL AND HEALTHCARE COLLEAGUES

Did you know that at MARCINKO & Associates, all medical colleagues throughout the United States may contact us when they are considering the sale, purchase, strategic operating improvement, merger, acquisition and/or other financial business or related personal financial planning transaction?

MORE: https://marcinkoassociates.com/welcome-medical-colleagues/

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Our difference is “hard” knowledge and insider financial guidance that helps medical colleagues, nurses, private practitioners, clinics, ambulatory surgery, radiology and outpatient wound care centers realize their ultimate economic goals. This typically includes managerial and cost accounting, financial ratio analysis, fair market valuation business appraisals, business plan creation and personal financial planning.

MORE: https://marcinkoassociates.com/fmv-appraisals/

Our “expert witness” business litigation support service and divorce mediation, arbitration, asset division, settlement and second opinion offerings are always available, as well.

MORE: https://marcinkoassociates.com/expert-witness/

And, our “soft” skill professional career guidance and mentoring center includes executive coaching, consulting and mentoring advisory programs for stressed, conflicted or burned-out physicians and medical practitioners.

Our DIY BOOKS:

Book Offerings:

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COACHING: Careers

Most importantly, our professional fees are reasonable and always transparent.

MARCINKO & Associates also serves universities, medical, business, graduate and nursing schools; physicians, dentists, podiatrists, optometrists and legal societies. This includes accountants, financial service providers, wealth and hedge fund managers, emerging entities, hospitals, CEOs and their BODs, the press, media and related organizations.

MORE: https://marcinkoassociates.com/speaking-seminars/

Contact us for an educational white-paper on most any topic.

MORE: https://marcinkoassociates.com/case-studies/

***

Now, please review our website to learn more.

And, always retain us when needed.

How May We Serve You?

DAVID EDWARD MARCINKO

email: MarcinkoAdvisors@msn.com

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OPEN LETTER: MARCINKO Associates, Inc.

Posted on September 7, 2023 by Dr. David Edward Marcinko MBA MEd CMP™

MISSION STATEMENT

Open Letter from the CEO

Dr. David Edward Marcinko MBA CMP™

http://www.MarcinkoAssociates.com

ALL MEDICAL AND HEALTHCARE COLLEAGUES

MORE: https://marcinkoassociates.com/welcome-medical-colleagues/

***

MORE: https://marcinkoassociates.com/fmv-appraisals/

Our “expert witness” business litigation support service and divorce mediation, arbitration, asset division, settlement and second opinion offerings are always available, as well.

MORE: https://marcinkoassociates.com/expert-witness/

And, our “soft” skill professional career guidance and mentoring center includes executive coaching, consulting and mentoring advisory programs for stressed, conflicted or burned-out physicians and medical practitioners.

COACHING: Careers

Most importantly, our professional fees are reasonable and always transparent.

MORE: https://marcinkoassociates.com/speaking-seminars/

Contact us for an educational white-paper on most any topic.

MORE: https://marcinkoassociates.com/case-studies/

***

Now, please review our website to learn more.

And, always retain us when needed.

How May We Serve You?

DAVID EDWARD MARCINKO

email: MarcinkoAdvisors@msn.com

e-BOOKS: For Doctors, Financial Advisors, CPAs, Insurance Agents, Medical Consultants and Health Law Attorneys

Posted on July 7, 2023 by Dr. David Edward Marcinko MBA MEd CMP™

By Ann Miller RN MHA CMP™

INTRODUCING OUR NEXT GENERATION e-BOOK LIBRARY FROM iMBA, Inc.

An e-book is an electronic or digital book that can be read on a computer or a handheld device.

Our new e-books consists of text, images, and are fixed to a specific spot on the page.

And, our e-books are a data files similar in content and structure to a word-processing document that comes in a PDF format. To use our e-books, you need to purchase and download it to a device that has a .pdf file reader app, such as ADOBE® or similar on a smartphone, tablet or computer. A PDF, also known as a portable document format, is the format most people are familiar with and used in our e-books. PDFs are known for their ease of use and ability to hold custom layouts. They are the most commonly used e-Book formats, especially by professionals and adult-learners.

You can then access the e-book and read it, or highlight pages and even take side notes.

e-Books Save Money

With no manufacturing, printing, binding or shipping costs, e-Books are cheaper than traditional hard or paper back books.The price of each specialized and highly niche focused e-Book [50-100 pages] is only $25, whereas similar paperback printed books of this type generally cost $145, or more!

Payable thru PayPal [3% courtesy surcharge applies].

MORE HERE: https://medicalexecutivepost.com/me-pr-a-new-feature/

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FIDUCIARY ADVICE: For Physicians, Nurses and Medical Professionals

Posted on June 24, 2023 by Dr. David Edward Marcinko MBA MEd CMP™

By Ann Miller RN MHA CPHQ CMP

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INVESTMENT ADVISORY & PORTFOLIO OPINIONS, MEDICAL START-UPS, ESTABLISHED PRACTICE VALUATIONS, BUSINESS MANAGEMENT AND EXPERT WITNESS CONSULTING

“FROM CHAOS-TO-CALM”

If you’re looking at this ME-P tab, chances are you are fed up, burned out, seeking practice management techniques or a better work-life balance; looking for a new non-clinical career, thinking of finance, investing, retirement, or all of the above. Perhaps you are just looking to regain the joy and meaning in your medical or professional career?

And so, we can help. From informal coaching and mentoring – to second opinions and more formal business, legal and/or financial consulting. Regardless, the need is real.

No Worries! You may have come to the right place.

A Fiduciary At Your Service

START HERE: https://davidedwardmarcinko.com/coach/

Thank You

***

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FIDUCIARY OPINIONS: Secure Investment Advisory -OR- Medical Practice Management Advice

Posted on June 21, 2023 by Dr. David Edward Marcinko MBA MEd CMP™

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MARCINKO & ASSOCIATES, Inc.

Dr. David Edward Marcinko MBA CMP®

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FIDUCIARY: Obtain an Unbiased 2nd Financial Advisory -or- Economic Practice Management Opinion

Posted on June 1, 2023 by Dr. David Edward Marcinko MBA MEd CMP™

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Dr. David Edward Marcinko MBA CMP®

Certified Medical Planner®

SPONSOR: http://www.CertifiedMedicalPlanner.org

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FINANCIAL PLANNING

CAREER DEVELOPMENT

MEDICAL PRACTICE BUY IN / OUT

INVESTMENT ANALYSIS

PORTFOLIO MANAGEMENT

MERGERS AND ACQUISITIONS

PRACTICE APPRAISALS AND VALUATIONS

RETIREMENT PLANNING

FEE-ONLY

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CONTACT: Ann Miller RN MHA

EMAIL: MarcinkoAdvisors@msn.com

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2nd OP

DAILY UPDATE: Bankruptcy Rising!

Posted on May 21, 2023 by Dr. David Edward Marcinko MBA MEd CMP™

By Staff Reporters

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According to a new report from S&P Global, the number of companies that have gone bankrupt so far in 2023 is higher than the first four months of any year since 2010.

Filings through April have pushed the year-to-date count to 236 — more than double the comparable figure a year ago and higher than any of the prior 12 years. Leading the way were companies selling directly to consumers (Bed, Bath & Beyond being the most notable), followed by industrials and then financial services.

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Modern Portfolio Theory and Asset Allocation [Not Correlation]

Posted on May 21, 2023 by Dr. David Edward Marcinko MBA MEd CMP™

THE CORRELATION HOT TOPIC

By Dr. David Edward Marcinko MBA CMP©

SPONSOR: http://www.CertifiedMedicalPlanner.org

Modern Portfolio Theory approaches investing by examining the complete market and the full economy. MPT places a great emphasis on the correlation between investments.

DEFINITION:

If the probability of A happening is 1/X;
And the probability of B happening is 1/Y; then
The probability of A and B happening together is (1/X) times (1/Y), or 1/(X times Y).

There are several laws of correlation including;

Combining assets with a perfect positive correlation offers no reduction in portfolio risk. These two assets will simply move in tandem with each other.
Combining assets with zero correlation (statistically independent) reduces the risk of the portfolio. If more assets with uncorrelated returns are added to the portfolio, significant risk reduction can be achieved.
Combing assets with a perfect negative correlation could eliminate risk entirely. This is the principle with “hedging strategies”. These strategies are discussed later in the book.

Citation: https://www.r2library.com/Resource/Title/0826102549

BUT – CORRELATION IS NOT CAUSATION

https://medicalexecutivepost.com/2021/02/05/correlation-is-not-causation/

In the real world, negative correlations are very rare

Historical Correlation of Asset Classes

Benchmark 1 2 3 4 5 6

1 U.S. Treasury Bill 1.00

2 U.S. Bonds 0.73 1.00

3 S&P 500 0.03 0.34 1.00

4 Commodities 0.15 0.04 0.08 1.00

5 International Stocks -0.13 -0.31 0.77 0.14 1.00

6 Real Estate 0.11 0.43 0.81 -0.02 0.66 1.00

Table Source: Ibbotson 1980-2012

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Musings on a Famous Portfolio Asset Allocation Study

Posted on May 9, 2023 by Dr. David Edward Marcinko MBA MEd CMP™

Some Critics Claim Brinson, Hood, and Beebower Conclusions Wrong

[By Dr. David Edward Marcinko MBA CMP™]

http://www.CertifiedMedicalPlanner.org

[Publisher-in-Chief]

Frequently, we hear the axiom that asset allocation is the most important investment decision, explaining 93.6% of portfolio returns. The presumption has been that once the risk tolerance and time horizon have been established, investing is simply a matter of implementing a fixed mix of stocks, bonds, and cash using mutual funds selected for this purpose. This axiom is based on a famous study by Brinson, Hood, and Beebower (BHB) published in the Financial Analysts Journal in July/August 1986. It is the stuff of most modern business school and graduate students in economics and finance.

Enter the Critics

One critic claims that BHB’s conclusions and the interpretation of their conclusions are wrong, stating that because of several methodological problems, BHB needed to make certain assumptions for their analysis to go forward. They assumed that the average asset-class weights for the 10-year period studied are the same as the actual normal policy weights; that investments in foreign stocks, real estate, private placements, and venture capital can be proxied by a mix of stocks, bonds, and cash; and that the benchmarks for stocks, bonds, and cash against which fund performance was measured are appropriate. The author believes that each of these assumptions can lead to a faulty measurement of success or failure at market timing and stock selection.

The Jahnke Study

William Jahnke claims that BHB erred in their focus on explaining the variation of quarterly portfolio returns rather than portfolio returns over the 10-year period studied. According to the study, asset allocation policy explains only a small fraction of the range of 10-year portfolio returns earned by the pension funds reported in the study. The author concluded that this discrepancy is caused by the effect of compounding returns. He adds that BHB were wrong to use variance of quarterly returns rather than the standard deviation. Use of standard deviation would reduce the often cited 93.6% to about 79%. Moreover, BHB did not consider the cost of investing, such as operating expenses, management fees, brokerage commissions, and other trading costs, which are more significant for individual investors than for the pension plans studied. Jahnke claims that excessive costs can reduce wealth accumulation by 50%.

Note: (“The Asset Allocation Hoax,” William W. Jahnke, Journal of Financial Planning, February 1997, Institute of Certified Financial Planners [303] 759-4900).

Assessment

Finally, the author takes issue with establishing long-term fixed asset class weights. Asset allocation should be a dynamic process. Higher equity return expectations should in turn produce larger equity allocations, other things being equal.

Conclusion

Are doctors different than the average investor noted in this essay?

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e-BOOKS: For Doctors, Financial Advisors, CPAs, Insurance Agents, Medical Consultants and Health Law Attorneys

Posted on May 6, 2023 by Dr. David Edward Marcinko MBA MEd CMP™

By Ann Miller RN MHA CMP™

INTRODUCING OUR NEXT GENERATION e-BOOK LIBRARY FROM iMBA, Inc.

An e-book is an electronic or digital book that can be read on a computer or a handheld device.

Our new e-books consists of text, images, and are fixed to a specific spot on the page.

You can then access the e-book and read it, or highlight pages and even take side notes.

e-Books Save Money

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FINANCIAL INVESTING RISKS DOCTORS SHOULD KNOW

Posted on April 10, 2023 by Dr. David Edward Marcinko MBA MEd CMP™

Types & Definitions

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Financial Investing risk is any of various types of risk associated with financing, including financial transactions that include company loans in risk of default. Often it is understood to include only downside risk, meaning the potential for financial loss and uncertainty about its extent.

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BY DR. DAVID E. MARCINKO MBA CMP®

SPONSOR: http://www.CertifiedMedicalPlanner.org

Understanding Financial Risk

Although broad investing risks can be quickly summarized as “the failure to achieve spending and inflation-adjusted growth goals,” individual assets may face any number of other subsidiary risks:

Call risk – The risk, faced by a holder of a callable bond that a bond issuer will take advantage of the callable bond feature and redeem the issue prior to maturity. This means the bondholder will receive payment on the value of the bond and, in most cases, will be reinvesting in a less favorable environment (one with a lower interest rate)
Capital risk – The risk an investor faces that he or she may lose all or part of the principal amount invested.
Commodity risk – The threat that a change in the price of a production input will adversely impact a producer who uses that input.
Company risk – The risk that certain factors affecting a specific company may cause its stock to change in price in a different way from stocks as a whole.
Concentration risk – Probability of loss arising from heavily lopsided exposure to a particular group of counterparties
Counterparty risk – The risk that the other party to an agreement will default.
Credit risk – The risk of loss of principal or loss of a financial reward stemming from a borrower’s failure to repay a loan or otherwise meet a contractual obligation.
Currency risk – A form of risk that arises from the change in price of one currency against another.
Deflation risk – A general decline in prices, often caused by a reduction in the supply of money or credit.
Economic risk – the likelihood that an investment will be affected by macroeconomic conditions such as government regulation, exchange rates, or political stability.
Hedging risk – Making an investment to reduce the risk of adverse price movements in an asset.
Inflation risk – The uncertainty over the future real value (after inflation) of your investment.
Interest rate risk – Risk to the earnings or market value of a portfolio due to uncertain future interest rates.
Legal risk – risk from uncertainty due to legal actions or uncertainty in the applicability or interpretation of contracts, laws or regulations.
Liquidity risk – The risks stemming from the lack of marketability of an investment that cannot be bought or sold quickly enough to prevent or minimize a loss.

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Risk Management, Liability Insurance, and Asset Protection Strategies for Doctors and Advisors: Best Practices from Leading Consultants and Certified Medical Planners™

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DAILY UPDATE: About the Markets

Posted on April 4, 2023 by Dr. David Edward Marcinko MBA MEd CMP™

By Staff Reporters

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Major U.S. stock indexes ended mixed, after the announcement of a surprise OPEC+ production cut sent crude oil prices to two-month highs and fueled inflation concerns that could keep the Federal Reserve in policy-tightening mode. This weekend, several OPEC+ members, including Saudi Arabia, announced production cuts totaling nearly 1.2 million barrels a day that are slated to start in May. In response, WTI crude futures soared above $80 a barrel. Word of the planned cuts also boosted expectations that the Fed could raise its benchmark interest rate again in May as the central bank extends efforts to tamp down inflation. The OPEC+ cuts “suggest more headline inflation pressure in the near-term,” says Jeffrey Kleintop, chief global investment strategist at Charles Schwab & Co. The potential for further waves of inflation will “keep central banks from declaring victory over excessive price gains,” he adds. “That’s another headwind for tech stocks and other ‘long duration’ equities that get more of their cash flow in the future than in the near term.”

CITE: https://www.r2library.com

The following is a round-up of today’s market activity:

The S&P 500^® Index was up 15.2 (0.4%) at 4124.51, the highest close since Feb. 15; the Dow Jones industrial average was up 327 (1.0%) at 33601.15; the NASDAQ Composite was down 32.45 (0.3%) at 12189.45.
The 10-year Treasury yield was down about 7 basis points at 3.417%.
CBOE’s Volatility Index was down 0.14 at 18.56.

Oil producers and other energy companies led gainers Monday. Health care stocks also outperformed. Consumer discretionary and real estate were among the laggards.

Among individual stocks, Tesla (TSLA) shares tumbled over 6% following reports the electric car-maker delivered just 423,000 vehicles in the first quarter. Analysts had expected 430,000, according to research firm FactSet.

Looking ahead, medical companies, especially vaccine makers, may be worth watching this week with the World Vaccine Congress taking place in Washington, D.C. Some well-known vaccine makers include Moderna (MRNA), Johnson & Johnson (JNJ), and GlaxoSmithKline (GSK). Late last month, Walgreens Boots Alliance (WBA) reported a steep year-over-year decline in demand for COVID-19 vaccinations.

The U.S. dollar index fell slightly, while gold futures climbed above $2,000 per ounce to post their highest close in over two years.

CITE: https://www.amazon.com/Dictionary-Health-Information-Technology-Security/dp/0826149952/ref=sr_1_5?ie=UTF8&s=books&qid=1254413315&sr=1-5

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About Securities “Shelf Registration”

Posted on April 2, 2023 by Dr. David Edward Marcinko MBA MEd CMP™

A Primer for Physician Investors and Medical Professionals

By: Dr. David Edward Marcinko; MBA, CMP™

SPONSOR: http://www.CertifiedMedicalPlanner.org

[Editor-in-Chief]

[PART 5 OF 8]

Introduction

A relatively new method of registration under the Act of ’33 is known as shelf registration. Under this rule, an issuer may register any amount of securities that, at the time the registration statement becomes effective, is reasonably expected to be offered and sold within two years of the initial effective date of the registration. Once registered, the securities may be sold continuously or periodically within 2 years without any waiting period for a registration to clear issuers generally like shelf registration because of the flexibility it gives them to take advantage of changing market conditions.

In addition, the legal, accounting, and printing costs involved in issuance are reduced, since a single registration statement suffices for multiple offerings within the 2 year period. In effect, what the issuer does is register securities that will meet its financing needs for the next 2 years. It issues what it needs at the current time, and puts the balance on the shelf” to be taken off the shelf as needed.

SECURITIES MARKETS

The purchase of common stock in an IPO (initial public offering) is facilitated through of the members an investment bank underwriting syndicate or selling group. This is known as the primary market and the proceeds of sale go directly to the issuing company. Six months later however, if a doctor wants to sell his shares, this would be accomplished in the secondary market. The term secondary market refers to trading in outstanding issues as the proceeds do not go to the issuer, but to the current owner of the securities, such as the physician investor.

Therefore, the secondary market provides liquidity to doctors who acquired securities in the primary market. After a doctor has acquired securities in the primary market, he wants to be able to sell the securities at some point in the future in order to acquire other securities, buy a house, or go on a vacation. Such a sale takes place in the secondary market. The medical investor’s ability to convert the asset (securities) into cash is heavily dependent upon the secondary market. All investors would be hesitant to acquire new securities if they felt they would not subsequently have the ability to sell the securities quickly at a fair price in the secondary market.

Securities Act of 1934

Every trade of stocks and bonds that is not a purchase of a new issue is a trade that takes place in the secondary market. The market place for secondary trading is the stock exchanges and the over-the-counter (OTC) market, and is governed by the Securities Act of 1934, which actually created the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) and outlines the powers of the SEC to interpret, supervise, and enforce the securities laws of the United States. The Act of 34 is very broad and governs the sales of securities, including the regulation of securities markets exchanges, OTC markets, broker/dealers, their employees, the conduct of secondary markets, the extension of credit in the purchase and sale of securities, and the conduct of corporate insiders (officers and directors and holders of more than 10% of the outstanding stock). The Act also prohibits fraud and manipulative and deceptive activities in securities transactions

The Stock Exchanges

A stock exchange is a private association of brokers. The main purpose of an exchange is to provide a central meeting place for its member-brokers. This central meeting place is called the floor. It is on the floor that the members trade in securities. It is important to remember that a stock exchange itself does not own any of the securities that are traded on its floor. Nor does it buy or sell any of the securities traded on the exchange. Instead, the securities are owned by member firms, customers, or perhaps, by the exchange member firm itself.

It is also important to remember that a stock exchange does not establish or fix the price at which any security is traded on the exchange. The price is determined in a free and open auction type of trading. It depends on the supply and demand relationship of that security at a particular time. In other words, if sellers of a stock are offering to sell more shares of that stock than buyers want to buy, the price of that stock will tend to go down. On the other hand, if buyers want to buy more shares of a stock than the sellers are offering to sell, the price of that stock will tend to go higher because of the strong demand.

Any discussion of stock exchanges has to focus on the NYSE, which is by far the largest and most important of the exchanges. There are two exchanges referred to as national stock exchanges, the NYSE and the American Stock Exchange (AMEX). In addition to these two national exchanges, there are several regional stock exchanges including the Philadelphia Exchange, the Chicago Exchange (formerly Midwest), the Pacific Exchange, the Boston Exchange, and the Cincinnati Exchange. Stocks that are traded on an exchange are referred to as listed stocks. The term “listed on an exchange” means that the issue is eligible for trading on the floor of the exchange.

How does a stock become listed? The issuing company, having decided that they wish the prestige and broad visibility of being listed on the NYSE, applies to the exchange for listing. A critical condition for listing is that the issuer agrees to solicit proxies from those common stock shareholders unable to attend shareholder meetings. Once the securities have been accepted for listing (trading) on an exchange, the issuer must continue to meet certain requirements which are not quite as stringent as the original listing requirements, and may be de-listed if the firm ceases to solicit proxies on its existing voting stock, or meet other minimal requirements.

Physically, the exchange brings together buyers and sellers on a trading floor. The NYSE floor is larger than several football fields and is divided into 19 trading posts. Eighteen of the posts are horseshoe or U-shaped stations 100 square feet in area. The nineteenth post (post number 30) is in the northwest corer and really isn’t a post at all; it’s just an area where the inactive stocks trade.

The Specialist

Specialists are experts in trading one or more specific stocks at their particular post on the exchange floor. Their activity is vital to the maintenance of a free and continuous market in the specific issues they represent. They are responsible for conducting the auction at the post. Everyone interested in buying the stock calls out a price and the shares go to the highest bidder. The buyers compete, but there is only one seller. Unlike the usual auction market, the auction on the floor of the exchange is a two way auction with some brokers seeking to buy at the lowest possible price for their doctor clients and other brokers trying to sell at the highest possible price for their doctor clients. When two brokers, one representing a buyer and one a seller, agree on a price, a sale is made. The specialist functions in a dual capacity as a dealer and as a broker. As a dealer or principal, he buys and sells for his own account and risk to maintain a fair and orderly market in the stocks in which he specializes.

For example, if a commission broker approaches the specialist at the post with a buy or sell order, and there are no other brokers in the crowd, that is currently interested in buying or selling the stock, the specialist will buy the stock from that commission broker (if it’s a sell order) for his own account or sell the stock from his inventory (if it’s a buy order). Perhaps, he may even be able to fill the order from his specialist’s book?

Specialist’s Book

This is done by using the specialist’s book of buy orders (bids), marked on the left hand page, or sell orders (offers) on the right. There is a book for each stock in which the specialist specializes. The pages are ruled and are usually printed with fractional stock points at regular intervals to permit easy insertion of orders. The orders are entered in the book by the specialist according to price and in the sequence in which they are received at the post. He notes the number of shares, putting down 1 for 100 shares, 2 for 200 shares, etc. He also notes the name of the member firm placing the order and if the order is Good Till Cancelled (GTC), or not. When orders are executed, they are executed in the same order recorded in the book at that particular price.

The specialist’s book also keeps track of all orders “away from the market ” (limit orders and stop orders) in his book. The book is organized with all buy orders on the left hand side of the page and all sell orders on the right hand side. In the absence of bids and offers from the “trading crowd” on the floor, the specialist can quote the best available market for the security by announcing the highest bid and the lowest offer (ask). The best bid is always the highest buy limit order on his book and the best offer (ask) is always the lowest sell limit on his book. In addition to quoting the best price, he will also give the “size of the market ” which is determined by the number of shares being bid for and offered at the respective best bid and best ask prices. The quote is price and size. When asked to quote the market for a security, the specialist disregards any stop orders on his book since those orders do not become activated until triggered by another trade. One thing to remember is that since most doctors place stop orders to hedge (protect) against a price movement adverse to their interests, most stop orders are entered with the fervent wish that they never be executed.

On stop and limit orders placed below the market, the specialist is required to reduce the price of those orders on the ex-dividend (ex-split, ex-rights) date. The two critical things to remember are: what types of orders are reduced and by how much? The specialist will reduce all GTC (open) buy limit and sell stop orders on an ex-date. You may remember this with the acronym BLISS where the BL equals buy limit and the SS equals sell stop. The only time either of these orders will not be reduced is if the medical client turned in DNR (do not reduce) instructions.

The price of the order is then reduced by enough to equal or exceed the amount of the dividend.

If we go back to the example approaching the specialist to buy or sell stock and there is no one in the “crowd”, the specialist will first give the commission broker a quote from his book. That quote will be the highest bid price (the highest priced limit order to buy on his books) and the best asked price {the lowest priced sell limit on his books). If the commission broker is willing to buy at the lowest ask or offering price on the specialist’s book, then a trade will take place; if the commission broker is looking to sell and is willing to accept the highest bid price on the specialist’s book then, again, a trade will take place. It is the responsibility of the specialist to maintain an orderly market and to keep the spread between the bid and asked prices as narrow as possible. If the spread between bid and asked is too wide to generate market activity, the specialist will act on his own account.

If the specialist is presented with sell orders at the post and he has no buyers, he must bid at least 1/8 of a point higher than the best bid on his books. If he has buyers and no sellers, then he must offer stock from his inventory at a price at least, 1/8 of a point below the lowest offer on his book.

Why? It’s because the specialist cannot “compete” with public orders and if his bid matched a customer’s bid or his offer matched a customer’s offering or ask price, he would be considered to be ” competing”. Since the specialist is required to bid higher and ask lower than the best public orders on his book, the spread is narrowed. That is why it is said that the specialist acts in a dual capacity, as a dealer and as a broker. When buying and selling for his own account, he is acting as a dealer. The specialist acts as a broker when he executes limit orders left with him by commission brokers. When these limit orders are executed out of the specialist’s book (the doctor’s limit price is reached), the specialist uses a priority, parity, and precedence system, as to which order is executed first. These rules, like most others, are designed to give preference to the general public, not to members of the exchange, on a first come first served basis.

Walking Through a Trade

To see how the transactions are actually handled on the floor of an exchange, let us assume that an order to buy 100 shares of General Electric has been given by a doctor customer to the registered representative (stock broker), of a member firm in Atlanta. The order is a market order (an order to buy at the lowest possible price at the time the order reaches the floor of the exchange). This order is telephoned by direct wire, or computer, to the New York office of the member firm, which in turn telephones its order to its clerk on the floor of the exchange.

Each member firm has at least one member of the exchange representing them making trades on the floor. Each one of these members is assigned a number for identification. When the floor clerk receives the order to purchase the General Electric, he causes his member’s call number to appear on 3 large boards situated so that one is always in view. These boards are constantly watched brokers so that they will know when wanted at the phone, since there’s too much noise on the floor to use a paging system. Seeing his number on the board, the broker hurries to his telephone station or cell phone and receives the order to buy 100 shares of G.E. “at the market”. Acting as a commission broker, he immediately goes to the post where G.E. is traded and asks “how’s G.E”, of the specialist?

Part 4: Underwriting US Government Securities Issues

Conclusion

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The Legacy of Dr. Jack Treynor

Posted on March 17, 2023 by Dr. David Edward Marcinko MBA MEd CMP™

The History Behind A Popular Investing Theory

[By Dr. David Edward Marcinko MBA CMP™]

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[Publisher-in-Chief]

In his 1959 “Portfolio Selection,” Harry Markowitz PhD [father of MPT], said that investors should diversify against market risk but that determining the required return from such a group of diversified assets was another matter. Seven years later, economist Jack Treynor PhD wrestled with the issue of how investors can measure the expected risk in a portfolio against its expected return. Meanwhile, William Sharpe developed his own measure of risk and return known as the Capital Asset Pricing Model (CAPM) first published in the Journal of Finance in 1964 and discussed elsewhere on the ME-P.

A Seminal Paper

Treynor’s 1961 paper entitled “Toward a Theory of Market Value of Risky Assets” concluded that investors expect greater compensation for the larger risk they take in the stock market than they do from risk-free assets, such as Treasury bills. He called it the “equity risk premium” and created a method to predict it.

Fisher Black Collaboration

In 1973, Treynor collaborated with Fischer Black to devise a method for predicting the risk premium and to demonstrate its overarching importance in the behavior of capital markets as well as in portfolio selection. From 1969 through 1981 he furthered the work of many leading financial theorists, including Sharpe and Black, when he edited the Financial Analysts Journal.

Intellectual Band-Aid

In an interview about a decade ago, Treynor stated his belief that modern finance is preoccupied with statistical, rather than economic, thinking about risk. He explained that beta has come under attack in recent years because it is a statistical concept of risk. An economic concept of risk would have a lot more predictive value—it would be tied more intimately into fundamental analysis of companies and portfolios. He refers to beta as “just an intellectual Band-Aid.”

The Jensen Alpha

Treynor also described Bill Jensen’s alpha as looking at a market line established by a large number of funds and identifying those that had returns above the market line. Accordingly, a portfolio manager can increase his or her alpha by simply buying and selling larger positions of the same research recommendations.

Assessment

Black and Treynor developed a ratio of alpha to residual risk (return squared /risk squared), which shows that when you have everything else equal and you increase this ratio, you improve performance. And, they actually introduced the term Sharpe ratio.

Note: “It’s All About Odds,” Jonathan Burton, Dow Jones Asset Management, July/August 1997, pp. 20–28, Dow Jones Financial Publishing Corp., (732) 389-8700.

Conclusion

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DAILY UPDATE: Silicon Valley and Silvergate Banks Out as Domestic Markets Tank

Posted on March 11, 2023 by Dr. David Edward Marcinko MBA MEd CMP™

By Staff Reporters

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Financial regulators have closed Silicon Valley Bank and taken control of its deposits, the Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. announced yesterday, in what is the largest U.S. bank failure since the global financial crisis more than a decade ago.

The FDIC said in the announcement that insured depositors will have access to their deposits no later than Monday morning.
SVB’s branch offices will also reopen at that time, under the control of the regulator.
The FDIC’s standard insurance covers up to $250,000 per depositor, per bank, for each account ownership category.

CITE: https://www.r2library.com/Resource/Title/082610254

***

And, the crypto company SB announced yesterday that it’s winding down operations and liquidating Silvergate Bank, which has about $11 billion in assets. Silvergate has been struggle throughout crypto’s downturn—especially after the collapse of FTX, one of its biggest customers. Last quarter, Silvergate fired 40% of its workforce, reported a $1 billion loss, and took out billions in loans…but apparently it wasn’t enough.

MORE: https://www.routledge.com/Comprehensive-Financial-Planning-Strategies-for-Doctors-and-Advisors-Best/Marcinko-Hetico/p/book/9781482240283

***

U.S. equities ended the day and week sharply lower, as the markets continued to look for hints regarding future monetary policy decisions. The moves came amid a flurry of news and economic data, as the February labor report showed stronger-than-expected job gains, and a lower-than-anticipated increase in wages, but a rise in the unemployment rate. The report was in stark contrast to January’s blowout figures, and seemed to soothe some of the anxiety over the Fed’s future actions.

In earnings news, Ulta Beauty handily beat estimates and provided upbeat guidance, and Oracle offered mixed quarterly results and increased its dividend, but Gap fell well short of expectations amid a tumble in online sales, and it saw a shakeup in management.

Treasury yields tumbled in the wake of the labor report and worries surrounding the banking sector, and the U.S. dollar was sharply lower, while crude oil and gold prices traded to the upside.

Asian stocks finished lower, and markets in Europe saw widespread losses, led by shares of banking companies, amid uncertainty regarding the overall effects of rate hikes.

***

COMMENTS APPRECIATED

THANK YOU

***

Filed under: "Ask-an-Advisor", Alerts Sign-Up, Ethics, iMBA, Inc., Information Technology, Investing, Portfolio Management | Tagged: Asian stocks, crypto, cryptocurrency, DJIA, FDIC, Federal Reserve, FTX, NASDAQ, oracle, S&P 500, Silicon Valley Bank, Silvergate Bank, SVB, Treasury yields, ulta beauty | Leave a comment »

DAILY UPDATE: Lawmaker’s Health Data Breach, BLS Report and the Crashing Bank & Stock Markets!

Posted on March 10, 2023 by Dr. David Edward Marcinko MBA MEd CMP™

By Staff Reporters

***

***

The online health insurance marketplace for members of Congress and Washington, D.C., residents was subjected to a hack that compromised the personal identifying information of potentially thousands of lawmakers, their spouses, dependents and employees, according to a letter from House leaders informing their colleagues about the breach and a memo from the Senate’s top security official.

CITE: https://www.amazon.com/Dictionary-Health-Information-Technology-Security/dp/0826149952/ref=sr_1_5?ie=UTF8&s=books&qid=1254413315&sr=1-5

CITE: https://www.amazon.com/Dictionary-Health-Insurance-Managed-Care/dp/0826149944/ref=sr_1_4?ie=UTF8&s=books&qid=1275315485&sr=1-4

***

Today the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (US-BLS) will report the number of jobs the U.S. economy added in February as well as other pertinent information surrounding the labor market. Officials at the Fed and investors have been watching the labor market very carefully, which has been red hot with the unemployment rate in January remaining near historic lows at 3.4%. Fed officials believe the tight labor market is empowering consumers to spend through rising consumer prices, which has made inflation sticky. Fed Chairman Jerome Powell has said previously the Fed would like to see some deterioration in the labor market to know that it’s winning its war with inflation.

CITE: https://www.r2library.com/Resource/Title/0826102549

Bank stocks plunged as investors assessed the potential fallout from the implosions of Silicon Valley Bank and Silvergate Capital.
SVB Financial surprised investors with lowered guidance, a $2.3 billion capital raise, and a massive $1.8 billion loss from its bond portfolio.
“This is sending shock waves through the financials with the regional bank ETF lower by 8%,” NYSE’s Michael Reinking said.

***

U.S. stocks declined to close out a choppy trading session, adding to weekly losses that followed this week’s hawkish Congressional testimony from Fed Chairman Jerome Powell. A larger-than-expected increase in weekly initial jobless claims seemed to offer a modest reprieve from the concerns about how aggressive the Fed may be.

The Financial sector saw pressure, as SVB Financial plummeted after selling securities for a loss, and Silvergate Capital dropped after announcing that it would shut down its bank operations and liquidate. As a result of the turmoil in the sector, the shares of numerous banks declined. In other equity news, Dow member American Express increased its share buyback plan and raised its dividend, while GE rallied as the Street cheered its long-term outlook.

Treasury yields were mostly lower with short-term rates giving back recent gains, and the yield curve steepened somewhat after inverting further on Powell’s testimony.

The U.S. dollar relinquished some of this week’s rally, while crude oil prices were lower, and gold traded to the upside.

Asian stocks finished mixed following some cooler-than-expected Chinese inflation reports, and Europe ended mostly lower, as the global markets continued to react to Fed Chair Powell’s comments.

***

ORDER: https://www.routledge.com/Comprehensive-Financial-Planning-Strategies-for-Doctors-and-Advisors-Best/Marcinko-Hetico/p/book/9781482240283

***

COMMENTS APPRECIATED

Thank You

***

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Understanding Active Asset Allocation

Posted on March 6, 2023 by Dr. David Edward Marcinko MBA MEd CMP™

The Two Types of Active Allocation

[By Jeffrey S. Coons; PhD, CFA]

[By Christopher J. Cummings; CFA, CFP™]

Sometimes, physician investors feel that the markets either overreact or under react to a given piece of news – related to a specific security – and are generally willing to commit their time and resources to find mispriced securities.

For example, a young physician with a long time horizon may feel that the financial markets are too focused on the near-term following a decline in a pharmaceutical company’s stock from a disappointing FDA report. Or, the recent banking industry debacle is a good sector wide example of abrupt depression.

And so, if active asset allocation makes sense based upon the limitations of passive asset allocation in managing risk over even long periods of time, how do physician investors – and their advisors – make active asset allocation decisions?

The Approaches

There are two distinct active asset allocation approaches used to build an investment portfolio. They are the top-down method and the bottom-up method, and they differ based on how important economic and industry variables are to the decision-making process relative to individual security variables.

Top-Down Approach

Advocates of the top-down approach generally begin their investment process by formulating an outlook for the domestic economy, and in certain circumstances the outlook is constructed for the global economy. This may be a direct result of a quantitative model using various market and economic data as input to reach a conclusion regarding the best asset mix on a tactical basis, or it may be a more subjective process resulting from a qualitative assessment of the market and economic outlook.

In developing an economic overview for qualitative top-down asset allocation decisions, the medical professional and/or his advisors typically consider factors such as monetary policy, fiscal policy, trade relations, and inflation. Clearly, macroeconomic factors such as those listed above are likely to have a significant impact on the performance of a wide range of investment alternatives.

After a thorough analysis of the overall economy has been completed, top-down investors will either buy broad baskets of stocks representing an asset class or perform an analysis of industries that they believe will benefit from the economic overview that has been developed.

Factors that may influence the attractiveness of particular industries include regulatory environment, supply and demand of resources, taxes, and import/export quotas.

The top-down approach generally views the best company in a weak industry as being unlikely to provide satisfactory returns.

The final step in the top-down process involves analyzing individual companies in industries that are expected to benefit from the forecasted economic environment.

Bottom-Up Approach

In contrast, investors employing a bottom-up approach will focus their attention on identifying securities that are priced below the investor’s estimate of their value.

Physicians and investors using the bottom-up approach to asset allocation and portfolio construction will only purchase securities deemed attractive according to their basic pricing and security selection criteria, thus adjusting the overall mix of investments by the limit of securities considered attractive at current valuations.

A truly bottom-up approach will consider economic and industry factors as clearly secondary in identifying investment opportunities. Investors using this approach will focus solely on company analysis. However, they must recognize that investment decisions cannot be made in a vacuum. Macroeconomic factors, as well as industry characteristics and traits are likely to be key elements in identifying attractive investment opportunities even on a security-by-security basis.

The key to bottom-up asset allocation and portfolio management is to realize that the decision variables driving the basic mix of assets in the portfolio are more related to the availability of attractive individual investments than to a general top-down market or economic overview.

Are you an active or passive investor?

If an active investor; what type are you?

Conclusion

Link: http://feeds.feedburner.com/HealthcareFinancialsthePostForcxos

[Dr. Cappiello PhD MBA] *** [Foreword Dr. Krieger MD MBA]

Front Matter with Foreword by Jason Dyken MD MBA

Filed under: Portfolio Management | Tagged: Investing Basics | 2 Comments »

A Few Simple Rules For Money Managers

Posted on March 5, 2023 by Dr. David Edward Marcinko MBA MEd CMP™

vitaly

[By Vitaliy Katsenelson CFA]

One of the biggest hazards of being a professional money manager is that you are expected to behave in a certain way: You have to come to the office every day, work long hours, slog through countless e-mails, be on top of your portfolio (that is, check performance of your securities minute by minute), watch business TV and consume news continuously, and dress well and conservatively, wearing a rope around the only part of your body that lets air get to your brain. Our colleagues judge us on how early we arrive at work and how late we stay. We do these things because society expects us to, not because they make us better investors or do any good for our clients.

Somehow we let the mindless, Henry Ford–assembly-line, 8:00 a.m. to 5:00 p.m., widgets-per-hour mentality dictate how we conduct our business thinking. Though car production benefits from rigid rules, uniforms, automation and strict working hours, in investing — the business of thinking — the assembly-line culture is counterproductive. Our clients and employers would be better off if we designed our workdays to let us perform our best.

Investing

Investing is not an idea-per-hour profession; it more likely results in a few ideas per year. A traditional, structured working environment creates pressure to produce an output — an idea, even a forced idea. Warren Buffett once said at a Berkshire Hathaway annual meeting: “We don’t get paid for activity; we get paid for being right. As to how long we’ll wait, we’ll wait indefinitely.”

***

stock-exchange

***

How you get ideas is up to you. I am not a professional writer, but as a professional money manager, I learn and think best through writing. I put on my headphones, turn on opera and stare at my computer screen for hours, pecking away at the keyboard — that is how I think. You may do better by walking in the park or sitting with your legs up on the desk, staring at the ceiling.

I do my best thinking in the morning. At 3:00 in the afternoon, my brain shuts off; that is when I read my e-mails. We are all different. My best friend is a brunch person; he needs to consume six cups of coffee in the morning just to get his brain going. To be most productive, he shouldn’t go to work before 11:00 a.m.

And then there’s the business news. Serious business news that lacked sensationalism, and thus ratings, has been replaced by a new genre: business entertainment (of course, investors did not get the memo). These shows do a terrific job of filling our need to have explanations for everything, even random events that require no explanation (like daily stock movements). Most information on the business entertainment channels — Bloomberg Television, CNBC, Fox Business — has as much value for investors as daily weather forecasts have for travelers who don’t intend to go anywhere for a year. Yet many managers have CNBC, Fox or Bloomberg on while they work.

Filters

You may think you’re able to filter the noise. You cannot; it overwhelms you. So don’t fight the noise — block it. Leave the television off while the markets are open, and at the end of the day, check the business channel websites to see if there were interviews or news events that are worth watching.

Don’t check your stock quotes continuously; doing so shrinks your time horizon. As a long-term investor, you analyze a company and value the business over the next decade, but daily stock volatility will negate all that and turn you into a trader. There is nothing wrong with trading, but investors are rarely good traders.

***

idea

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Numerous studies have found that humans are terrible at multitasking. We have a hard time ignoring irrelevant information and are too sensitive to new information. Focus is the antithesis of multitasking. I find that I’m most productive on an airplane. I put on my headphones and focus on reading or writing. There are no distractions — no e-mails, no Twitter, no Facebook, no instant messages, no phone calls. I get more done in the course of a four-hour flight than in two days at the office. But you don’t need to rack up frequent-flier miles to focus; just go into “off mode” a few hours a day: Kill your Internet, turn off your phone, and do what you need to do.

I bet if most of us really focused, we could cut down our workweek from five days to two. Performance would improve, our personal lives would get better, and those eventual heart attacks would be pushed back a decade or two.

Assessment

Take the rope off your neck and wear comfortable clothes to work (I often opt for jeans and a “Life is good” T-shirt). Pause and ask yourself a question: If I was not bound by the obsolete routines of the dinosaur age of assembly-line manufacturing, how would I structure my work to be the best investor I could be? Print this article, take it to your boss and tell him or her, “This is what I need to do to be the most productive

ABOUT

Vitaliy N. Katsenelson, CFA, is Chief Investment Officer at Investment Management Associates in Denver, Colo. He is the author of Active Value Investing (Wiley 2007) and The Little Book of Sideways Markets (Wiley, 2010). His books have been translated into eight languages. Forbes called him – the new Benjamin Graham.

Conclusion

OUR OTHER PRINT BOOKS AND RELATED INFORMATION SOURCES:

HOSPITALS: http://www.crcpress.com/product/isbn/9781466558731
CLINICS: http://www.crcpress.com/product/isbn/9781439879900
ADVISORS: www.CertifiedMedicalPlanner.org
FINANCE: Financial Planning for Physicians and Advisors
INSURANCE: Risk Management and Insurance Strategies for Physicians and Advisors
Dictionary of Health Economics and Finance
Dictionary of Health Information Technology and Security
Dictionary of Health Insurance and Managed Care

[PHYSICIAN FOCUSED FINANCIAL PLANNING AND RISK MANAGEMENT COMPANION TEXTBOOK SET]

***

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PODCAST: Hedge Fund Manager Michael Burry MD

Posted on February 22, 2023 by Dr. David Edward Marcinko MBA MEd CMP™

In The Subprime of His Life – My Story

By Dr. David Edward Marcinko MBA, CMP™

[Editor-in-Chief]

I am a long time fan of financial industry journalist Michael Lewis [Liars’ Poker, Moneyball and others] who just released a new book. The Big Short is a chronicle of four players in the subprime mortgage market who had the foresight [and testosterone] to short the diciest mortgage deals: Steve Eisner of FrontPoint, Greg Lippmann at Deutsche Bank, the three partners at Cornwall Capital, and most indelibly, Wall Street outsider Michael Burry MD of Scion Capital.

They all walked away from the disaster with pockets full of money and reputations as geniuses.

About Mike

Now, I do not know the first three folks, but I do know a little something about my colleague Michael Burry MD; he is indeed a very smart guy. Mike is a nice guy too, who also has a natural writing style that I envy [just request and read his quarterly reports for a stylized sample]. He gave me encouragement and insight early in my career transformation – from doctor to “other”.

And, he confirmed my disdain for the traditional financial services [retail sales] industry, Wall Street and their registered representatives and ‘training’ system, and sad broker-dealer ethos [suitability versus fiduciary accountability] despite being a hedge fund manager himself.

I mentioned him in my book: “Insurance and Risk Management Strategies” [For Physicians and their Advisors].

http://www.amazon.com/Insurance-Management-Strategies-Physicians-Advisors/dp/0763733423/ref=sr_1_2?ie=UTF8&s=books&qid=1269254153&sr=1-2

He ultimately helped me eschew financial services organizations, “certifications”, “designations” and ”colleges”, and their related SEO rules, SEC regulations and policy wonks; and above all to go with my gut … and go it alone!

And so, I rejected my certified financial planner [marketing] designation status as useless for me, and launched the www.CertifiedMedicalPlanner.org on-line educational program for physician focused financial advisors and management consultants interested in the healthcare space … who wish to be fiduciaries.

And I thank Mike for the collegial good will. By the way, Mike is not a CPA, nor does he posses an MBA or related advanced degree or designation. He is not a middle-man FA. He is a physician. Unlike far too many other industry “financial advisors” he is not a lemming.

IOW: We are not salesman. We are out-of-the-box thinkers, innovators and contrarians by nature. www.MedicalBusinessAdvisors.com

From a Book Review

According to book reviewer Michael Osinski, writing in the March 22-29 issue of Businessweek.com, Lewis is at his best working with characters and Burry is rendered most vividly.

“A loner from a young age, in part because he has a glass eye that made it difficult to look people in the face, Burry excelled at topics that required intense and isolated concentration. Originally, investing was just a hobby while he pursued a career in medicine. As a resident neurosurgeon at Stanford Hospital in the late 1990s, Burry often stayed up half the night typing his ideas onto a message board. Unbeknownst to him, professional money managers began to read and profit from his freely dispensed insight, and a hedge fund eventually offered him $1 million for a quarter of his investment firm, which consisted of a few thousand dollars from his parents and siblings. Another fund later sent him $10 million”.

“Burry’s obsession with finding undervalued companies eventually led him to realize that his own home in San Jose, Calif., was grossly overpriced, along with houses all over the country. He wrote to a friend: “A large portion of the current [housing] demand at current prices would disappear if only people became convinced that prices weren’t rising. The collateral damage is likely to be orders of magnitude worse than anyone now considers.” This was in 2003.

“Through exhaustive research, Burry understood that subprime mortgages would be the fuse and that the bonds based on these mortgages would start to blow up within as little as two years, when the original “teaser” rates expired. But Burry did something that separated him from all the other housing bears—he found an efficient way to short the market by persuading Goldman Sachs (GS) to sell him a CDS against subprime deals he saw as doomed. A unique feature of these swaps was that he did not have to own the asset to insure it, and over time, the trade in these contracts overwhelmed the actual market in the underlying bonds”.

“By June 2005, Goldman was writing Burry CDS contracts in $100 million lots, “insane” amounts, according to Burry. In November, Lippmann contacted Burry and tried to buy back billions of dollars of swaps that his bank had sold. Lippmann had noticed a growing wave of subprime defaults showing up in monthly remittance reports and wanted to protect Deutsche Bank from potentially massive losses. All it would take to cause major pain, Lippmann and his analysts deduced, was a halt in price appreciation for homes. An actual fall in prices would bring a catastrophe. By that time, Burry was sure he held winning tickets; he politely declined Lippmann’s offer”

And the rest, as they say, is history.

Link: http://www.businessweek.com/magazine/content/10_12/b4171094664065.htm

My Story … Being a Bit like Mike

I first contacted Mike, by phone and email, more than a decade ago. His hedge fund, Scion Capital, had no employees at the time and he outsourced most of the front and back office activities to concentrate on position selection and management. Early investors were relatives and a few physicians and professors from his medical residency days. Asset gathering was a slosh, indeed. And, in a phone conversation, I remember him confirming my impressions that doctors were not particularly astute investors. For him, they generally had sparse funds to invest as SEC “accredited investors” and were better suited for emerging tax advantaged mutual funds. ETFs were not significantly on the radar screen, back then, and index funds were considered unglamorous. No, his target hedge-fund audience was Silicon Valley.

And, much like his value-hero Warren Buffett [also a Ben Graham and David Dodd devotee], his start while from the doctor space, did not derive its success because of them.

Moreover, like me, he lionized the terms “value investing”, “margin of safety” and “intrinsic value”.

Co-incidentally, as a champion of the visually impaired, I was referred to him by author, attorney and blogger Jay Adkisson www.jayadkisson.com Jay is an avid private pilot having earned his private pilot’s license after losing an eye to cancer.

Mike again re-entered my cognitive space while doing research for the first edition of our successful print book: “Financial Planning Handbook for Physicians and Advisors” and while searching for physicians who left medicine for alternate careers!

In fact, he wrote the chapter on hedge funds in our print journal and thru the third book edition before becoming too successful for such mundane stuff. We are now in our fourth edition, with a fifth in progress once the Obama administration stuff [healthcare and financial services industry “reform” and new tax laws] has been resolved

http://www.amazon.com/Financial-Planning-Handbook-Physicians-Advisors/dp/0763745790/ref=sr_1_1?ie=UTF8&s=books&qid=1269211056&sr=1-1

Assessment

News: Dr. Burry appeared on 60 Minutes Sunday March 14th, 2010. His activities with Scion Capital are portrayed in Michael Lewis’s newest book, The Big Short. An excerpt is available in the April 2010 issue of Vanity Fair magazine, and at VanityFair.com

Video of Dr. Burry: http://www.cbsnews.com/video/watch/?id=6298040n&tag=contentBody;housing

Video of Dr. Burry: http://www.cbsnews.com/video/watch/?id=6298038n&tag=contentBody;housing

PS: Michael Osinski retired from Wall Street and now runs Widow’s Hole Oyster Co. in Greenport, NY http://www.widowsholeoysters.com

And, our www.MedicalBusinessAdvisors.com related books can be reviewed here: http://www.amazon.com/s/ref=nb_sb_noss?url=search-alias%3Dstripbooks&field-keywords=david+marcinko

Assessment

Visit Scion Capital LLC and tell us what you think http://www.scioncapital.com.

And to Mike himself, I say “Mazel Tov” and congratulations? I am sure you will be a good and faithful steward. The greatest legacy one can have is in how they treated the “little people.” You are a champ. Call me – let’s do lunch. And, I am still writing: www.BusinessofMedicalPractice.com for the conjoined space we both LOVE.

Conclusion

Link: http://feeds.feedburner.com/HealthcareFinancialsthePostForcxos

OUR OTHER PRINT BOOKS AND RELATED INFORMATION SOURCES:

DICTIONARIES: http://www.springerpub.com/Search/marcinko
PHYSICIANS: www.MedicalBusinessAdvisors.com
PRACTICES: www.BusinessofMedicalPractice.com
HOSPITALS: http://www.crcpress.com/product/isbn/9781466558731
CLINICS: http://www.crcpress.com/product/isbn/9781439879900
ADVISORS: www.CertifiedMedicalPlanner.org
BLOG: www.MedicalExecutivePost.com
FINANCE:Financial Planning for Physicians and Advisors
INSURANCE:Risk Management and Insurance Strategies for Physicians and Advisors

[PHYSICIAN FOCUSED FINANCIAL PLANNING AND RISK MANAGEMENT COMPANION TEXTBOOK SET]

[Dr. Cappiello PhD MBA] *** [Foreword Dr. Krieger MD MBA]

***

Filed under: Book Reviews, Breaking News, CMP Program, iMBA, Inc., Interviews, Investing, Portfolio Management, Recommended Books, Videos | Tagged: 60 Minutes, Ben Graham, CFP, CMP, Cornwall Capital, David Dodd, david marcinko, Greg Lippmann, Jay Adkisson, Michael Lewis, Nicahel Burry, Scion Capital, SEC, Steve Eisner, subprime mortgage market, The Big Short, value investing, Wall Street, www.certifiedmedicalplanner.com, www.HealthDictionaySeries.com, www.medicalbusinessadvisors.com | 34 Comments »

SECOND OPINIONS: Physician Financial Planning, Investing, Medical Practice Management and Business Valuations; etc!

Posted on February 21, 2023 by Dr. David Edward Marcinko MBA MEd CMP™

BY DR. DAVID EDWARD MARCINKO MBA CMP

***

Financial Planning for Medical Professionals

HERE: https://medicalexecutivepost.com/schedule-a-consultation/

CONTACT: Ann Miller RN MHA

770-448-0769

***

ORDER: https://www.amazon.com/Comprehensive-Financial-Planning-Strategies-Advisors/dp/1482240289/ref=sr_1_1?ie=UTF8&qid=1418580820&sr=8-1&keywords=david+marcinko

THANK YOU

***

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Musings on a Famous Portfolio Asset Allocation Study

Posted on February 14, 2023 by Dr. David Edward Marcinko MBA MEd CMP™

Some Critics Claim Brinson, Hood, and Beebower Conclusions Wrong

[By Dr. David Edward Marcinko MBA CMP™]

http://www.CertifiedMedicalPlanner.org

[Publisher-in-Chief]

Enter the Critics

The Jahnke Study

Note: (“The Asset Allocation Hoax,” William W. Jahnke, Journal of Financial Planning, February 1997, Institute of Certified Financial Planners [303] 759-4900).

Assessment

Conclusion

Are doctors different than the average investor noted in this essay?

Link: http://feeds.feedburner.com/HealthcareFinancialsthePostForcxos

OUR OTHER PRINT BOOKS AND RELATED INFORMATION SOURCES:

Invite Dr. Marcinko

***

SECOND OPINIONS: Physician Financial Planning, Investing, Medical Practice Management and Business Valuations; etc!

Posted on February 12, 2023 by Dr. David Edward Marcinko MBA MEd CMP™

BY DR. DAVID EDWARD MARCINKO MBA CMP

***

HERE: https://medicalexecutivepost.com/schedule-a-consultation/

CONTACT: Ann Miller RN MHA

770-448-0769

***

ORDER: https://www.amazon.com/Comprehensive-Financial-Planning-Strategies-Advisors/dp/1482240289/ref=sr_1_1?ie=UTF8&qid=1418580820&sr=8-1&keywords=david+marcinko

THANK YOU

***

Alphabet Soup: Financial Designations & Certificates

Posted on January 21, 2023 by Dr. David Edward Marcinko MBA MEd CMP™

financial-designationsjuly

AUTHOR: Dr. David Edward Marcinko; MBA, CMP™

POSITION: Publisher-in-Chief

TOPIC: Financial Designations and Certifications [Alphabet Soup of Industry Obfuscation and Self-Promotion, or Real Gravitas – You Decide?]

EXCERPT: “Until recently, most financial advisors were regulated by the NASD, the National Association of Securities Dealers. Now the Financial Industry Regulatory Authority or FINRA is the largest non-governmental regulator for all securities firms doing business in the United States. It is a self-regulatory agency comprised of the nation’s brokerage firms. Upon completion of a required exam the FINRA will issue a variety of licenses. The most common are the Series 6, 7, and 24.

The Series 6 is essentially a license to sell packaged products, namely mutual funds. It is most commonly held by insurance agents and bank representatives. It is considered a very easy test. Holding such a license allows the holder to collect commission income through its member firm.

The Series 7 exam is a bit more difficult and includes issues relating to individual securities such as stocks, bonds and limited partnership interests. The pass rate is lower than the Series 6. The probable culprit is the extensive questioning on margin and options, topics most are unfamiliar with prior to entering the securities business.

The Series 24 covers issues of compliance and supervision and is required of Branch Managers of brokerage firms. All registered representatives (the proper name for a broker) must be supervised by someone with a Series 24, also known as a principal’s license.

Checking the background of a registered representative, a branch manager or a member firm is easily done through NASD and/or FINRA Regulation, Inc. NASDR/FINRA maintains the Central Registration Depository (CRD). The CRD can be checked for a description of a disclosed event by phone or by Internet. One should request information on an advisor’s firm as well as the individual. A reputable advisor at a disreputable firm has its own set of potentially dangerous implications.

Regardless of the above, these tests produce licenses to sell financial products. They are not educational achievements. There is virtually no academic barrier to entry for them. Stock-brokers today – hate the term – and prefer “financial advisor”; yet the term has no real meaning other than as a sales license.

Some are college graduates, and beyond; while some other experts argue that too many are not!”

Hence, the need to “raise the bar to fiduciary accountability with deep knowledge of healthcare modernity.”

For more info: http://www.CertifiedMedicalPlanner.org

READ JULY HERE: financial-designationsjuly

Conclusion

OUR OTHER PRINT BOOKS AND RELATED INFORMATION SOURCES:

PHYSICIANS: www.MedicalBusinessAdvisors.com
PRACTICES: www.BusinessofMedicalPractice.com
HOSPITALS: http://www.crcpress.com/product/isbn/9781466558731
CLINICS: http://www.crcpress.com/product/isbn/9781439879900
ADVISORS: www.CertifiedMedicalPlanner.org
BLOG: www.MedicalExecutivePost.com
FINANCE: Financial Planning for Physicians and Advisors
INSURANCE: Risk Management and Insurance Strategies for Physicians and Advisors

Filed under: Career Development, CMP Program, Ethics, Financial Planning, Insurance Matters, Investing, Monthly Reports, Op-Editorials, Portfolio Management, Research & Development, Risk Management | Tagged: certifications, designations, Investing, RIA, stock broker | 3 Comments »

DAILY UPDATE: Carta Inc Down BUT More Stock Market Gains for the Year

Posted on January 12, 2023 by Dr. David Edward Marcinko MBA MEd CMP™

NASDAQ Winning Streak

By Staff Reporters

***

***

Carta Inc., a financial software company valued at $7.4 billion in August 2021, told employees on Wednesday it was cutting about 10% of the workforce. The job cuts, earlier reported by TechCrunch, are more evidence of the chill that has set in for even the best-funded tech startups. Carta raised $500 million in equity last year, bringing its total fundraising haul to more than $1 billion. Carta makes software to manage equity stakes in private companies, and has been backed by firms including Andreessen Horowitz, Lightspeed Venture Partners and Silver Lake. Prominent venture capitalist Marc Andreessen sits on the company’s board.

***

U.S. equities finished higher to add to gains seen this year, with the NASDAQ on a four-day winning streak. However, caution was prevalent, as the markets awaited tomorrow’s December consumer price inflation report, and as Q4 earnings season will kick off on Friday with results from some prominent names from the Financials sector.

Treasury yields were lower and the U.S. dollar was little changed, while crude oil prices and gold were higher.

The economic calendar was relatively light today, but mortgage applications snapped a two-week losing streak. The airline industry was in focus after the FAA temporarily suspended all flights across the U.S. after a computer system failure, and Wells Fargo & Company announced that it will reduce the size of its mortgage lending business.

Asia finished mixed, and Europe saw widespread gains, as the global markets awaited this week’s inflation and earnings data out of the U.S.

CITE: https://www.r2library.com/Resource/Title/0826102549

***

ORDER: https://www.routledge.com/Comprehensive-Financial-Planning-Strategies-for-Doctors-and-Advisors-Best/Marcinko-Hetico/p/book/9781482240283

***

COMMENTS APPRECIATED

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***

Filed under: "Ask-an-Advisor", Alerts Sign-Up, iMBA, Inc., Investing, Portfolio Management | Tagged: Carta, Carta Inc., DJIA, Lightspeed Venture Partners, Marc Andreessen, Market gains, NASDAQ, NASDAQ winning streak, S&P 500, Silver Lake | Leave a comment »

Musings on a Famous Portfolio Asset Allocation Study

Posted on December 14, 2022 by Dr. David Edward Marcinko MBA MEd CMP™

Some Critics Claim Brinson, Hood, and Beebower Conclusions Wrong

[By Dr. David Edward Marcinko MBA CMP™]

http://www.CertifiedMedicalPlanner.org

[Publisher-in-Chief]

Enter the Critics

The Jahnke Study

Note: (“The Asset Allocation Hoax,” William W. Jahnke, Journal of Financial Planning, February 1997, Institute of Certified Financial Planners [303] 759-4900).

Assessment

Conclusion

Are doctors different than the average investor noted in this essay?

Link: http://feeds.feedburner.com/HealthcareFinancialsthePostForcxos

OUR OTHER PRINT BOOKS AND RELATED INFORMATION SOURCES:

Invite Dr. Marcinko

***

DAILY UPDATE: Domestic Stocks, Treasuries, the Dollar, Oil, Jobs, Asian and European Stocks

Posted on October 14, 2022 by Dr. David Edward Marcinko MBA MEd CMP™

***

By Staff Reporters

***

***

Stocks initially fell, and then soared.

Treasury yields rose, particularly on the short end of the curve.

The U.S. dollar declined as the British pound rallied for a second day amid speculation that the U.K. government may reverse course on its tax cut plan.

Crude oil prices reversed higher, and gold prices were lower.

Jobless claims accelerated more than expected.

Asian stocks moved broadly lower amid the inflation uneasiness, while European stocks ended the day in the green as the markets grappled with the potential tax-cut U-turn out of the U.K.

***

FINANCE: https://www.routledge.com/Comprehensive-Financial-Planning-Strategies-for-Doctors-and-Advisors-Best/Marcinko-Hetico/p/book/9781482240283

BUSINESS MEDICINE: https://www.routledge.com/Comprehensive-Financial-Planning-Strategies-for-Doctors-and-Advisors-Best/Marcinko-Hetico/p/book/9781482240283

***

COMMENTS APPRECIATED

Thank You

****

Filed under: Alerts Sign-Up, Alternative Investments, Financial Planning, Funding Basics, Investing, LifeStyle, Portfolio Management | Tagged: Asian and European Stocks, domestic stocks, oil, the Dollar, treasuries | Leave a comment »

PODCAST: The Real Secret About Why Corporate Mergers Fail

Posted on October 4, 2022 by Dr. David Edward Marcinko MBA MEd CMP™

AN AUDIO PRESENTATION

By Vitaliy Katsenelson CFA

***

Corporate acquisitions often fail for one simple reason: the buyer pays too much. An old Wall Street adage comes to mind: Price is what you pay, value is what you get.

It all starts with a control premium

When we purchase shares of a stock, we pay a price that is within pennies of the last trade. When a company is acquired, the purchase price is negotiated during long dinners at fine restaurants and comes with a control premium that is higher than the latest stock quotation.

How much above?

***

Filed under: Portfolio Management, Practice Management, Videos | Tagged: MA, mergers, Vitaliy Katsenelson CFA | Leave a comment »

Careers and Net Worth

Posted on October 1, 2022 by Dr. David Edward Marcinko MBA MEd CMP™

Your Career as an Asset Class

By Rick Kahler MS CFP® http://www.KahlerFinancial.com

Is your [medical] career part of your net worth? Should you include it as an asset class in a diversified investment portfolio? While we consider careers as essential aspects of financial and professional success, few of us think of or manage them as financial assets.

Emerging New Philosophy

Michael Haubrich, CFP®, of Financial Service Group, Inc., in Racine, Wisconsin, encourages clients to think of careers this way. Some of the following ideas come from his new book, Career Asset Management: Getting Ahead, Staying Ahead and Using Your Head to Maximize Your Career Value.

Career as Assset

If you consider your career an asset, then managing it means paying attention to the return you get from that asset. Here are a few things to consider in order in order to receive the most value from a career.

Keep in mind that the most important return on investment from a career is not necessarily financial

The value of a career is much more than just the money you earn; it includes a host of less tangible but vital rewards like the satisfaction you get from your work and the fulfillment that comes from following your dreams and using the talents that make up your unique genius.

Consciously set out to build a career rather than get a job

As with investing, this provides the most benefit when you start early. Settling long-term for “just a job” usually won’t provide as much value, in terms of both income and job satisfaction, as you will get from a meaningful career.

If your career asset isn’t providing a good return, make changes

Just as you might sell an underperforming mutual fund, consider making changes to your career if you aren’t getting the earnings, fulfillment, or other value you want from it. You might look for a similar job with a different company, add skills and knowledge to help you move up, consider changing careers, or explore starting your own business.

One way to fund such changes is to budget for a reserve over and above the six months of living expenses that many financial advisors recommend. Mike calls this reserve an Asset Working Capital Fund. He suggests the amount to have in this fund depends on the “velocity” and “volatility” of your career asset—including how fast you’re likely to advance, the stability of your job and career field, and life changes like starting a family that will affect your income.

Think of your career as a rental property

Mike recommends viewing your career as an asset that you own and rent to others for given periods of time. To get the highest “rent”—income and satisfaction—you need to keep that asset in top shape by keeping your skills and knowledge up to date, maintaining your passion for your work, and building a strong reputation and network of relationships within your profession.

Make the most of your near-retirement years

Wanting to retire early because you’re dissatisfied with your work can be a sign that your career asset isn’t working for you. Yet staying employed for even a few more years can make a big difference in your retirement income. Mike suggests considering options like part-time or contract work, flexible scheduling, consulting, or freelancing to add value to your late-career years. This can help you move into retirement gradually, as well as provide more financial security.

Assessment

Chances are you won’t choose to list your career as an asset class in your investment portfolio. To make the most of both your aspirations and your earning power, however, keep in mind that a satisfying career is one of the most important assets you can own.

More:

Is an MBA Worth It?
Doctor Salary v. Others [Present Value of Career Wealth]
MEDICAL PRACTICE AS A NEW ASSET CLASS [chapter]
[Valuing the Quintessential Alternative Financial Investment] B Dr. David Edward Marcinko MBA CMP®: Comprehensive Financial Planning Strategies for Doctors and Advisors: Best Practices from Leading Consultants and Certified Medical Planners™

Conclusion

OUR OTHER PRINT BOOKS AND RELATED INFORMATION SOURCES:

DICTIONARIES: http://www.springerpub.com/Search/marcinko
PHYSICIANS: www.MedicalBusinessAdvisors.com
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HOSPITALS: http://www.crcpress.com/product/isbn/9781466558731
CLINICS: http://www.crcpress.com/product/isbn/9781439879900
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FINANCE: Financial Planning for Physicians and Advisors
INSURANCE: Risk Management and Insurance Strategies for Physicians and Advisors

BOOK:

Comprehensive Financial Planning Strategies for Doctors and Advisors: Best Practices from Leading Consultants and Certified Medical Planners™

Filed under: Financial Planning, Portfolio Management | Tagged: asset class, Careers and Net Worth, Rick Kahler CFP® | 8 Comments »

WHO / WHAT Are the Best Predictors of Stock Market Performance?

Posted on September 30, 2022 by Dr. David Edward Marcinko MBA MEd CMP™

ME-P Special Report

Lon Jefferies

By Lon Jefferies MBA CFP®

WHO Are the Best Predictors of Stock Market Performance?

Every day CNBC airs dozens of “financial professionals” making market forecasts. Similarly, every financial publication has multiple pieces regarding the future of the stock market. With so much information, how is it possible to determine who is worth listening to and what information to incorporate into your investment strategy?

Dropping Names

Without dropping any names, I’d suggest that the more confident a market pundit is about his or her prediction, the more you should question their advice.

People who make strong, unwavering forecasts are interesting to watch and appear as intelligent, appealing leaders whose advice is worth following. Meanwhile, people who frequently say phrases such as “it depends,” “maybe,” or even “I don’t know” don’t seem to be adding much value and don’t appear to be any more knowledgeable than the average investor. Yet, I’d suggest you tune out the stanch forecaster pounding his fist on the table as he speaks and rather listen closely to the individual who is less willing to make firm predictions.

Stock market performance

Stock market performance is clearly not a result of any singular factor such as whether or not companies will generate more profits than expected. If this was the case, making market predictions would be easy – one could simply guess the answer to be yes or no and have a 50% chance of being correct. Rather, hitting profit targets is only point A on a long list of factors impacting stock market performance.

Point B may be whether or not the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates during their next meeting. Again, our market forecaster could guess yes or no to this question and have a 50% chance of being correct. However, when considering both factors A and B, now our market forecaster has to be right twice on two issues where there is only a 50% probability of being correct on each. Simple math tells us there is only a 25% chance that this will occur (50% x 50% = 25%).

Point C may be whether the republicans or the democrats win the 2016 election. Again, there is a 50% chance of either possibility. Now there are three factors in play, each with a 50% probability, so the probability that the market pundit will get all three factors correct is 12.5% (50% x 50% x 50% = 12.5%).

Point D may be whether the US dollars strengthens or weakens when compared to other currencies. Again, there is a 50% chance of getting this right, so when we consider all four factors, there is now a 6.25% chance of getting it right (50% x 50% x 50% x 50% = 6.25%).

The equation

There are hundreds of factors that go into this equation. Will Greece have another economic crisis? Will the price of oil go up or down? Will a war breakout with Russia? This is exactly why forecasting market performance is so difficult!

For this reason, the people who make the best forecasters are people who say phrases such as “perhaps,” “however,” and “on the other hand” a lot. Doing so illustrates that the individual has looked at the situation from a lot of different perspectives and realizes that everything may not go according to plan. These types of people also tend to admit when they are wrong more willingly and update their analysis utilizing the latest information available, even if the new information doesn’t reflect what they previously anticipated. Their thought process is likely: “I got point A wrong, so I need to adjust my thinking on point B, which will have an impact on point C, so how does this change my perspective on point D.” We’ll call this a point-A-to-point-B-to-point-C-to-point-D mentality.

By comparison, the forecaster who makes the strong prediction while staring into the camera likely utilizes more of a point-A-to-point-D mentality. They are less likely to admit that there are more factors affecting market performance than can be managed, and less likely to incorporate new information that doesn’t coincide with his previous prediction when making forward-looking forecasts. Their thought process is likely: “I may have gotten point A wrong, but that doesn’t matter. All that matters is point D and I believe I got that right when making my prediction.” This approach is obviously less logic-based than the approach taken by the forecaster who knows there are too many factors to enable an individual to make a confident prediction.

***

Assessment

While people who make confident predictions regarding market performance are entertaining to watch and provide advice that is simple to follow (he said buy, so I’ll buy), their advice is not likely to be any more accurate than other market pundits. In fact, if they are unwilling to admit when they get any potential factor concerning market performance wrong, their advice may be more damaging then useful. By comparison, market forecasters who utilize phrases such as “however,” “it is hard to say,” and “I’m not sure” provide advice that may come off as unhelpful or impossible to follow, but it is these people who provide logic-based nuggets of information that are likely to benefit your investment portfolio.

ABOUT

Lon Jefferies, a Certified Financial Planner™ (CFP), is a fee-only financial advisor and trusted fiduciary at Net Worth Advisory Group in Salt Lake City, Utah. He is dedicated to providing comprehensive financial planning and investment management on a fee-only basis.

Conclusion

OUR OTHER PRINT BOOKS AND RELATED INFORMATION SOURCES:

PRACTICES: www.BusinessofMedicalPractice.com
HOSPITALS: http://www.crcpress.com/product/isbn/9781466558731
CLINICS: http://www.crcpress.com/product/isbn/9781439879900
ADVISORS: www.CertifiedMedicalPlanner.org
FINANCE: Financial Planning for Physicians and Advisors
INSURANCE: Risk Management and Insurance Strategies for Physicians and Advisors
Dictionary of Health Economics and Finance
Dictionary of Health Information Technology and Security
Dictionary of Health Insurance and Managed Care

***

[PHYSICIAN FOCUSED FINANCIAL PLANNING AND RISK MANAGEMENT COMPANION TEXTBOOK SET]

[Dr. Cappiello PhD MBA] *** [Foreword Dr. Krieger MD MBA]

***

Filed under: Financial Planning, Investing, Portfolio Management | Tagged: Investing, Lon Jefferies, Predictors of Stock Market Performance | 2 Comments »

What is Tactical Portfolio Management?

Posted on September 29, 2022 by Dr. David Edward Marcinko MBA MEd CMP™

Re-Thinking Strategic Allocation

[By Dr. David Edward Marcinko MBA]

Many successful physician investors, retirement account managers or endowment fund administrators will establish a “strategic” allocation policy that is intended to guide long-term (greater than one-year) investment decisions.

Thinking Long Term?

This strategic allocation reflects the endowment’s thinking regarding the existence of perceived fundamental shifts in the market. Most endowments will also establish a target range or band for each asset class. The day-to-day managers then have the flexibility to make tactical decisions for a given class so long as they stay within the target range.

Terms

The term “tactical” when used in the context of investment strategy refers to the investor or manager’s ability to take advantage of short-term (under one year) market anomalies such as pricing discrepancies between different sectors or across different styles.

Assessment

Historically, tactical decisions with respect to asset allocation were derided as “market timing.” However, market timing implies moving outside of the target ranges whereas tactical decision making simply addresses the opportunistic deployment of funds within the asset class target range.

So, what do you think?

Conclusion

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SE OUR OTHER PRINT BOOKS AND RELATED INFORMATION SOURCES

***

Filed under: Investing, Portfolio Management | Tagged: asset allocation, Investing, Modern Portfolio Theory, strategic allocation, Tactical Portfolio Management | 3 Comments »

Capital Market Expectations, Asset Allocation and Safe Portfolio Withdrawal Rates

Posted on July 31, 2022 by Dr. David Edward Marcinko MBA MEd CMP™

By Staff Reporters

From: Munich Personal RePEc Archive [MPRA]

Economist Wade Donald Pfau wrote an article called, “Capital Market Expectations, Asset Allocation, and Safe Withdrawal more than a decade ago. Today, is is still a vital read.

Abstract

Most retirement withdrawal rate studies are either based on historical data or use a particular assumption about portfolio returns unique to the study in question.

But, financial advisors and planners may have their own capital market expectations for future returns from stocks, bonds, and other assets they deem suitable for their clients’ portfolios. These uniquely personal expectations may or may not bear resemblance to those used for making retirement withdrawal rate guidelines. The objective here is to provide a general framework for thinking about how to estimate sustainable withdrawal rates and appropriate asset allocations for clients based on one’s capital market expectations, as well as other inputs about the client including the planning horizon, tolerance for exhausting wealth, and personal concerns about holding riskier assets.

The study also tests the sensitivity of various assumptions for the recommended withdrawal rates and asset allocations, and finds that these assumptions are very important. Another common feature of existing studies is to focus on an optimal asset allocation, which is expected either to minimize the probability of failure for a given withdrawal rate, or to maximize the withdrawal rate for a given probability of failure. Retirement withdrawal rate studies are known in this regard for lending support to stock allocations in excess of 50 percent.

Assessment

This study shows that usually there are a wide range of asset allocations which can be expected to perform nearly as well as the optimal allocation, and that lower stock allocations are indeed justifiable in many cases.

Link: MPRA_paper_32973

About MPRA: http://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/information.html

NOTE: Wade Donald Pfau is an Associate Professor of Economics at the National Graduate Institute for Policy Studies (GRIPS) in Tokyo, Japan. His PhD in economics was from Princeton University.

Link: http://feeds.feedburner.com/HealthcareFinancialsthePostForcxos

OUR OTHER PRINT BOOKS AND RELATED INFORMATION SOURCES:

FINANCE: Financial Planning for Physicians and Advisors
INSURANCE: Risk Management and Insurance Strategies for Physicians and Advisors

Filed under: Experts Invited, Investing, Portfolio Management, Research & Development, Retirement and Benefits | Tagged: asset allocation, capital markets, Investing, MPRA, Munich Personal RePEc Archive, retirement planning, Safe Withdrawal Rates, Wade Donald Pfau | 4 Comments »

Value v. Growth Fund Managers

Posted on June 30, 2022 by Dr. David Edward Marcinko MBA MEd CMP™

Understanding Investment Styles

By Dr. David Edward Marcinko; MBA, CMP™

A mutual or hedge fund manager’s investment style is defined by the means or strategies used to accomplish the fund’s stated objective. Most managers have a strategy they believe to be the key to maximizing risk-adjusted investment returns. For example, two equity managers may seek growth of capital or capital appreciation over the long term. The strategies they use to achieve that goal can be vastly different, however, as evidenced by their choice of securities.

Style Characteristics

Astute physician-investors are aware that there are four, main manager style characteristics: value vs. growth, top-down vs. bottom-up—which can be refined further by additional approaches. Certain statistics and information reveal a manager’s style. An investor may prefer one style or one combination over another

Approaches Vary

Style approaches can be used in tactical asset allocation. Research has shown that one style tends to outperform the other during certain periods. If investors believe they can identify when one style will outperform the other, they could overweight the favored approach. More and more fund complexes are now offering funds in each style; especially for large healthcare entities and other institutions.

Value vs. Growth

Manager autonomy and style is an important consideration.

Value managers focus on a company’s assets or net worth and attempt to place a value on such assets: if their valuation is greater than the market’s valuation, the security is a candidate for ownership. Benjamin Graham, the father of value investing, believed this approach to selecting securities would eventually be recognized by the market, rewarding patient, long-term investors. In today’s service economy, value managers also attempt to value the intangible assets of a company, such as franchise value or human capital. Value managers tend to be contrarians—they buy out-of-favor stocks or stocks not widely followed or recommended by analysts. Value managers also look at the breakup value of a company (what the individual parts could be sold for). They buy cheap stocks: stocks with low P/E ratios or low price-to-book value relative to the market, and stocks of established companies that pay dividends.
Growth managers look at corporate earnings and focus on improving or accelerating earnings. They look at the trend of an industry or market sector (for example, environmental technology) to see if there is future sales-growth potential. They may lean toward companies that are dominant in the industry or have a product or service that will dramatically improve their market share. Growth managers typically own stocks with higher P/E ratios than the market average; these stocks may not be out of favor, but they may have been overlooked by market analysts. Growth stocks usually are not high-income-paying stocks.

Assessment

Prior to the recent financial meltdown, growth and momentum investing was the norm. Now it is value investing. What about the future for the physician-investor?

Conclusion

And so, your thoughts and comments on this Medical Executive-Post are appreciated.

Speaker: If you need a moderator or speaker for an upcoming event, Dr. David E. Marcinko; MBA – Publisher-in-Chief of the Medical Executive-Post – is available for seminar or speaking engagements. Contact: MarcinkoAdvisors@msn.com

Filed under: Financial Planning, Investing, Portfolio Management | Tagged: growth investing, value investing | 4 Comments »

UPDATE: FOMC IRs, Inflation, NASDAQ, Retail Sales and COVID Vaccines

Posted on June 16, 2022 by Dr. David Edward Marcinko MBA MEd CMP™

By Staff Reporters

***

***

The Federal Reserve hiked interest rates by three quarters of a percentage point [75 bps], its most aggressive move yet to try to control inflation, as it squeezes the U.S. economy. Through interest rate increases, the Fed is attempting to raise the cost to borrow money, slow economic activity, and bring down inflation that’s at 40-year-highs.

And, as much as we love to think we’re exceptional, inflation has been afflicting countries around the globe. In an analysis of 111 countries, Deutsche Bank found that the US’ inflation rate sits roughly in the middle.

The S&P snapped a five-day losing streak (though it’s still in a bear market), and the NASDAQ soared thanks to a surge in tech shares.

US retail sales fell for the first time in five months in May, as Americans pulled back on buying cars and other expensive items.

Finally, an FDA advisory committee unanimously recommended Moderna’s and Pfizer’s COVID vaccines for children under five, which is the only age cohort in the US that doesn’t yet have an authorized vaccine.

***

COMMENTS APPRECIATED

Thank You

***

Filed under: Alerts Sign-Up, Financial Planning, Health Economics, Investing, LifeStyle, Portfolio Management | Leave a comment »

ENCORE: The Danger of Groupthink with Endowment Fund Portfolio Managers

Posted on June 15, 2022 by Dr. David Edward Marcinko MBA MEd CMP™

A Historical Look-Back to the Future?

By Wayne Firebaugh CPA CFP® CMP™

www.CertifiedMedicalPlanner.org

It is not unusual for endowment fund managers to compare their endowment allocations to those of peer institutions and that as a result, endowment allocations are often similar to the “average” as reported by one or more survey/consulting firms.

One endowment fund manager expanded this thought by presciently noting that expecting materially different performance with substantially the same allocation is unreasonable [personal communication]. It is anecdotally interesting to wonder whether the seminal study “proving” the importance of asset allocation could have even had a substantially different conclusion. It seems likely that the pensions surveyed in the study had very similar allocations given the human tendency to measure one’s self against peers and to use peers for guidance.

Peer Comparison

Although peer comparisons can be useful in evaluating your institution’s own processes, groupthink can be highly contagious and dangerous.

For example, in the first quarter of 2000, net flows into equity mutual funds were $140.4 billion as compared to net inflows of $187.7 billion for all of 1999. February’s equity fund inflows were a staggering $55.6 billion, the record for single month investments. For all of 1999, total net mutual fund investments were $169.8 billion[1] meaning that investors “rebalanced” out of asset classes such as bonds just in time for the market’s March 24, 2000 peak (as measured by the S&P 500).

Of course, investors are not immune to poor decision making in upward trending markets. In 2001, investors withdrew a then-record amount of $30 billion[2] in September, presumably in response to the September 11th terrorist attacks. These investors managed to skillfully “rebalance” their ways out of markets that declined approximately 11.5% during the first several trading sessions after the market reopened, only to reach September 10th levels again after only 19 trading days. In 2002, investors revealed their relentless pursuit of self-destruction when they withdrew a net $27.7 billion from equity funds[3] just before the S&P 500’s 29.9% 2003 growth.

The Travails

Although it is easy to dismiss the travails of mutual fund investors as representing only the performance of amateurs, it is important to remember that institutions are not automatically immune by virtue of being managed by investment professionals.

For example, in the 1960s and early 1970s, common wisdom stipulated that portfolios include the Nifty Fifty stocks that were viewed to be complete companies. These stocks were considered “one-decision” stocks for which the only decision was how much to buy. Even institutions got caught up in purchasing such current corporate stalwarts as Joe Schlitz Brewing, Simplicity Patterns, and Louisiana Home & Exploration.

Collective market groupthink pushed these stocks to such prices that Price Earnings ratios routinely exceeded 50. Subsequent disappointing performance of this strategy only revealed that common wisdom is often neither common nor wisdom.

[Wall Street Reform?]

More Current Examples

More recently, the New York Times reported on June 21, 2007, that Bear Stearns had managed to forestall the demise of the Bear Stearns High Grade Structured Credit Strategies and the related Enhanced Leveraged Fund.

The two funds held mortgage-backed debt securities of almost $2 billion many of which were in the sub-prime market. To compound the problem, the funds borrowed much of the money used to purchase these securities.

The firms who had provided the loans to make these purchases represent some of the smartest names on Wall Street, including JP Morgan, Goldman Sachs, Bank of America, Merrill Lynch, and Deutsche Bank.[4]

Assessment

Despite its efforts Bear Stearns had to inform investors less than a week later on June 27th that these two funds had collapsed.

Conclusion

Is this same Groupthink mentality happening on Wall Street, today? Your thoughts and comments on this ME-P are appreciated. Feel free to review our top-left column, and top-right sidebar materials, links, URLs and related websites, too. Then, subscribe to the ME-P. It is fast, free and secure.

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OUR OTHER PRINT BOOKS AND RELATED INFORMATION SOURCES:

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BLOG: www.MedicalExecutivePost.com
FINANCE: Financial Planning for Physicians and Advisors
INSURANCE: Risk Management and Insurance Strategies for Physicians and Advisors

[1] 2001 Fact Book, Investment Company Institute.

[2] Id.

[3] 2003 Fact Book, Investment Company Institute.

[4] Bajaj, Vikas and Creswell, Julie. “Bear Stearns Staves off Collapse of 2 Hedge Funds.”
New York Times, June 21, 2007.

Filed under: Investing, Portfolio Management | Tagged: Bear Stearns High Grade Structured Credit Strategies, David Edward Marcinko, endowment fund, Enhanced Leveraged Fund., Mutual Funds, Nifty Fifty, Wayne Firebaugh | 4 Comments »

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The Two Types of Active Allocation

Top-Down Approach

Bottom-Up Approach

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[By Vitaliy Katsenelson CFA]

[PHYSICIAN FOCUSED FINANCIAL PLANNING AND RISK MANAGEMENT COMPANION TEXTBOOK SET]

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In The Subprime of His Life – My Story

[PHYSICIAN FOCUSED FINANCIAL PLANNING AND RISK MANAGEMENT COMPANION TEXTBOOK SET]

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