DAILY UPDATE: March Round-Up as Stocks End their Best First Quarter in Five Years

By Staff Reporters

APRIL FOOL’S DAY

April Fools’ Day customs date back to at least Renaissance Europe, but it’s likely the tradition originated long before then. Some historians have linked April Fools’ Day to the ancient Roman festival of “Hilaria,” where at the end of March, people would come together to commemorate the resurrection of the god Attis. It was a celebration of renewal in which revelers would dress up in disguises and imitate others.

It’s also possible that the medieval celebration of the Feast of Fools, where a mock bishop or pope was elected and church customs were parodied, could have inspired the day.

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Stocks had their best Q1 in five years. The S&P 500 ended Thursday—the last trading day of the quarter—up by more than 10%, marking its best start to a year since 2019.

The AI craze, record corporate profits, and optimism around cooling inflation are all contributing to the stock boom. The economy got more good news yesterday when the Stocks had their best Q1 in five years reported that several key gauges, including GDP and consumer spending, grew in Q4 of last year.

And, that’s not all: Home sales bounced back after a January slump, jobless claims fell, and advertisers raised their full-year forecast. Consumer sentiment is now at its highest level since 2021.

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VINTAGE ESSAY: On the Growing Global Stock Trend

By Rick Kahler MS CFP® http://www.KahlerFinancial.com

Rick Kahler MS CFP

About twelve years ago the South Dakota Investment Council combined two of their asset classes, domestic and international stocks, into one, global stocks. While this move didn’t make the nightly news, it did signify a growing trend.

Many investment managers no longer view the US stock market as a separate asset class from the rest of the world’s stock markets.

Today they view it as one component of a global asset class of stocks.

Diversify

For the same reason you don’t want to own just one company’s stock in your portfolio, it makes no sense for an individual investing for retirement to own just US stocks. It’s as important to diversify among countries as among companies.

The question then becomes how much of a global stock portfolio should be in US stocks and how much in international stocks. For many years the standard thinking of portfolio managers was still to over-allocate to the US. It was, and to some degree still is, common to see 80% of a portfolio’s equity allocation in US stocks.

That over-allocation has never made a lot of sense to me, considering that the US accounts for far less than 80% of the global market capitalization. In the 1980’s, US companies accounted for about 65% of the global capitalization. Accordingly, I weighted my stock portfolios with 65% US and 35% international. By 1999, the US had slipped to 50%. I adjusted my portfolios accordingly.

The latest statistics from Dimensional Fund Advisors show the US still accounts for around 50% of the global capitalization. Investors who want to maintain a true global diversification of their stock portfolios will need to seriously consider reducing their US allocation.

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Global Network

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Which, Where and How to Invest

Which international stocks, then, should you add? Developed regions and countries like those of Europe, Australia Pacific, and Japan account for about 40% of the total global capitalization. Emerging market countries, many in Southwest Asia and Latin America, make up the remaining 10%. Weighting your portfolio accordingly gives you a well-diversified stock portfolio that has a high probability of withstanding the inevitable rise and fall of equity markets.

How do you invest globally? There are mutual funds that invest in specific countries, in regions, internationally, or globally. I don’t really like the country funds, as I don’t know which countries I should be underweighting or overweighting. Besides, creating a global index using country funds can be a lot of work and expense.

Using index regional funds is an easier way to invest in international stocks. To allocate according to the global capitalization percentages above, you would include three index mutual funds in your stock portfolio: one broad market US fund, an international fund of developed (non-emerging markets), and an emerging markets fund.

If you want even more simplicity, invest in one good global fund. The difference between an “international” fund and a “global” or “world” fund is that a global fund will include US stocks where an international fund won’t. Vanguard Total World Stock ETF comes to mind as one of the better “one size fits all” global funds that will invest in a mixture of countries, including the US. This one fund holds 7,164 stocks in 47 countries. You really need nothing more in the equity portion of your portfolio.

Assessment 

While it isn’t necessary to allocate your stocks strictly according to global capitalization percentages, research suggest you will probably do better in the long run to do so. Whether you decide to own country, regional, international, or global funds, what’s most important is that you diversify your stock portfolio globally. In today’s world, it’s an important component of diversified investing.

Conclusion

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Risk Management, Liability Insurance, and Asset Protection Strategies for Doctors and Advisors: Best Practices from Leading Consultants and Certified Medical Planners™8Comprehensive Financial Planning Strategies for Doctors and Advisors: Best Practices from Leading Consultants and Certified Medical Planners™

Written by doctors and healthcare professionals, this textbook should be mandatory reading for all medical school students—highly recommended for both young and veteran physicians—and an eliminating factor for any financial advisor who has not read it. The book uses jargon like ‘innovative,’ ‘transformational,’ and ‘disruptive’—all rightly so! It is the type of definitive financial lifestyle planning book we often seek, but seldom find.

LeRoy Howard MA CMPTM [Candidate and Financial Advisor, Fayetteville, North Carolina]

http://www.CertifiedMedicalPlanner.org

FINANCIAL ASSET CLASSES: Like a Box of Valentine Chocolates?

On Valentine’s Day Diversification

                                         By Rick Kahler MS CFP® ChFC CCIM 

                                                   www.KahlerFinancial.com

Rick Kahler CFPThe stock markets crashed yesterday after the new CPI report and update.

Nevertheless, with displays of Valentine candy in every store, February is the perfect time to talk about chocolate. A creative financial planner might even steal Forrest Gump’s analogy and say, “Diversification is like a box of chocolates.”

Except that it isn’t.

True, a box of chocolates might have a lot of variety. Cream centers. Caramels. Nougats. Nuts. Dark chocolate. Milk chocolate. Truffles. Yet it’s all still chocolate.

Retirement Savings

Buying that box would be like investing your retirement savings in a variety of US stocks. Even if you had a dozen different companies, they would all be the same basic category of investment, or asset class.

For example, suppose you gave your true love a slightly more diversified Valentine gift made up of chocolates, Girl Scout cookies, baklava, and apple pie. That would compare to investing in different types of stocks like US, international, or emerging markets. But, everything would still be dessert.

Wiser Physician-Investors

You would be a wiser doctor-investor if you took your true love out for dinner and had a meat course, a salad, vegetables, bread, dessert, and wine. Now you’d start to see real diversification.

In addition to US, international, and emerging market stocks (all dessert), you might have some other asset classes like US and international bonds (meat), real estate (bread), cash (salad), commodities (veggies), and absolute return strategies (wine).

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Long Term Growth Generator

This kind of asset class diversification is the best investment strategy for long-term growth. My preference is eight or nine different classes. For many clients, I recommend a mix of US and international stocks and bonds, real estate investment trusts, a commodities index fund, market neutral funds like merger arbitrage and managed futures, junk bonds, and Treasury Inflation Protected Securities (TIPS).

Market Fluctuations

Fluctuations in the market will tend to affect the various securities within a given asset class in the same way. Most US stocks, for example, would generally move up or down at the same times. So, owning shares of several different stocks wouldn’t protect you against changes in the market. When a portfolio is well-diversified, the volatility is reduced even during times when the markets are moving strongly up or down.

When I talk about investing in a variety of asset classes, I don’t mean owning stocks, real estate, gold, or other assets directly. For individual investors, mutual funds are a much better choice. Occasionally, someone will ask me, “But why should I have everything in mutual funds? That isn’t diversified, is it?”

Mutual Funds

Mutual funds are not an asset class. A mutual fund isn’t like a type of food; it’s like the plate you put the food on. A single plate might hold one food item or servings from several different food groups. More specifically, mutual funds are pools of money invested by managers. One fund might invest in real estate investment trusts (REITS). Another might have international stocks chosen for their high returns. Still others invest in a diversified mix of asset classes. The mutual fund is just the container that holds the investments.

heart[Courtesy GE Healthcare]

Annuities

Annuities and IRAs aren’t asset classes, either, but are also examples of different types of containers that hold investments. If you use your IRA to purchase an annuity, all you’re doing is stacking one plate on top of another. It doesn’t give you another asset class, it just costs you more for the second plate.

Assessment

Having a box of chocolates for dinner might seem more appealing in the short term than eating a balanced meal. Investing in the “get-rich-now” flavor of the month might seem tempting, too. Yet in the long run, asset class diversification is the best way to make sure you have a healthy investment diet.

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February 14th, 2024

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Conclusion

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IMPLICATION OF WITHDRAWALS IN A MODERATE INTEREST RATE ENVIRONMENT

  A SPECIAL ME-P REPORT

A Retrospective Review … and Implications for Modernity

[Copyright Manning & Napier Advisors, Inc.]

Dr. Jeff Coons

By Jeff Coons PhD CFA

By Dr. David Edward Marcinko MBA CMP

SPONSOR: http://www.CertifiedMedicalPlanner.org

The general trend of declining interest rates experienced over the last several decades, part of a long-term trend Manning & Napier Advisors, Inc. and others have focused on since the early 1980’s, created new challenges for managing investment portfolios with regular and significant cash withdrawals.

Historical Review

This continuing report, first prepared 25 years ago, will provide an analysis of the investment implications of withdrawals in light of the secular shift in the economic and market conditions today. This analysis and historical review aims to guide decisions as to the appropriate level of withdrawals from an account in the more current moderate interest rate environment of 2014; and estimated thru to 2023.

The Questions

Declining interest rates restrict the ability to generate income from high quality investments, so a greater proportion of a given withdrawal requirement must come from the potential price appreciation of the securities.  Of course, the inherently volatile nature of the financial markets makes price appreciation the less predictable of the sources of total return available to fund withdrawal needs.

The natural questions that arise from this observation include:

  • What withdrawal rate inhibits the ability to pursue long-term capital growth as a primary investment objective?
  • What withdrawal rate may create a significant risk of a sustained deterioration of capital?
  • What is a reasonable range of withdrawal rates given the relatively low interest rate environment that we face? 

The answer to the first question can be derived from interest rates and dividend yields.  With a dividend yield of 1.0%-2.0% on stocks (e.g., the yield on the S&P 500 Index as of December 2000 was 1.2%) and yields on intermediate-term and long-term fixed income securities between 5.0% and 6.0% (e.g., as of December 2000, a one-year Treasury Bill had a yield of 5.4% and a thirty-year Treasury bond had a yield of 5.5%), growth-oriented portfolios should generally produce a level of income adequate to allow 2.5%-3.5% withdrawals on an annual basis.

Thus, rates of withdrawal of less than 3.5% generally should not inhibit the pursuit of long-term capital growth as a primary investment objective.

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Portfolio analysis

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Management Approach

To establish the high end of the achievable withdrawals under a management approach pursuing long-term capital growth, consider some historical evidence.

Assume that withdrawals are taken from each of three portfolios (i.e., 100% stocks, 80% stocks/20% bonds, and 50% stocks/50% bonds using data from Ibbotson Associates, Inc.) starting at the beginning of 1973.  How many years did it take to regain the original capital of the portfolio?

As can be seen in the following table, it took between 4-8 years for these portfolios to recover from the 1973-74 bear market with a 5.0% withdrawal rate.  If withdrawals are at a 7.5% rate per year, over ten years elapsed before the original capital was restored.

Finally, with a 10.0% withdrawal rate, it took between 13-15 years to restore the capital.  While the 1973-74 bear market was severe, it is not the worst bear market that can be used to illustrate the risk of significant withdrawals taken when the portfolio’s market value is depressed.

The clear conclusion is that withdrawals of greater than 5.0% are a potential impediment to pursuing long-term capital growth, given the long periods required to restore capital for the various growth-oriented asset mixes offered in this analysis.

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When Was Original (12/72) Capital Restored?
  1. 0% W/D
 

  1. 5% W/D
 

  1. 0% W/D
 100% Stock  9/80(7.75 years) 6/83(10.5 years) 6/86(14.5 years)
80% Stock/ 20% Bond  9/80(7.75 years) 3/83(10.25 years) 6/86(14.5 years)
50% Stock/ 50% Bond  12/76(4.0 years) 3/83(10.25 years) 3/87(15.25 years)

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Another key issue to remember is that the withdrawal rates above are a percentage of current market value, so the dollar value of the cash withdrawn from the account is assumed to decline in a bear market.  However, most of us think of our withdrawal needs in terms of dollars instead of percentages (e.g., $50,000 from a $1,000,000 account, which translates to 5%).

If we attempt to maintain the dollar value of withdrawals in bear market periods, the percentage of current market value being withdrawn actually increases, and the impact on the portfolio far exceeds the example provided above.

SAMPLE:

To demonstrate, consider maintaining withdrawals of $50,000, $75,000 and $100,000 on an account with a $1,000,000 market value as of 12/72 (see table below).

In the case of a $50,000 annual withdrawal, approximately 8-10 years elapse before the original $1,000,000 market value is restored.  If the withdrawals are $75,000 per year, 13 years elapse for the 50/50 asset mix and almost 19 years pass for the 80/20 asset mix before the $1,000,000 is restored.  For the 100% stock portfolio, nearly 25 years elapse before the original $1,000,000 is restored.

Finally, for $100,000 withdrawals off of a $1,000,000 market value in 1972, all capital in the account is depleted within 10-15 years given these withdrawals.  Thus, the risk of significant cash withdrawals having a detrimental impact on the ability to preserve and grow capital is much more pronounced when withdrawals remain high in dollar terms.

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When Was Original Capital ($1,000,000 in 12/72) Restored?
$50,000 W/D  $75,000 W/D  $100,000 W/D
 100% Stock  3/83(10.25 years) 9/97(24.75 years) Capital Depleted9/83
80% Stock/ 20% Bond  12/80(8.0 years) 9/91(18.75 years) Capital Depleted3/85
50% Stock/ 50% Bond  9/80(7.75 years) 3/86(13.25 years) Capital Depleted9/87

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So far, the major point we have established is that a withdrawal rate of 2.5%-3.5% may be achievable without hampering the pursuit of long-term capital growth, but withdrawals of 5% or greater may have a significant impact on the ability to manage for growth.  Therefore, accounts expected to experience withdrawals of 4%-5% (or greater) should be managed with a goal of satisfying these withdrawal needs on a regular basis first, with the pursuit of capital growth taking secondary importance.

However, the analysis provided above also implies that there is a rate of withdrawals that forces us to focus on capital preservation, because depletion of capital is a likely outcome.  For withdrawals in the range of 10.0%, the example above shows that the risk of depletion of capital is significant at these high annual levels, especially if the withdrawals are on a dollar basis and not adjusted by the decline of current market value in a bear market.

In fact, with long-term U.S. government bond yields at approximately 5.0%-6.0%, annual withdrawals greater than 7.5% are likely to be too high to allow a manager to effectively pursue long-term capital growth without a high degree of risk to the capital of the account.  That is, since attempts to provide returns above the current Treasury yields imply risk of volatility, and volatility can lead to the examples provided above, withdrawals at 7.5% or more and maintained on a dollar basis imply a high likelihood that original capital will be depleted over a 15-20 year period.

In general, the current level of yields in the market imply that management of a portfolio requiring over 7.5% per year in withdrawals faces a strong possibility of depleting capital under any scenario, and so portfolio management should focus on dampening market volatility so as to extend the life of the capital for as long as possible as it is drawn down.

Final Questions

The final question[s] (i.e., the appropriate level of withdrawals) is driven by both the client’s need for the assets and the parameters outlined above:

  1. Withdrawals less than 3.5% of current market value should not inhibit the pursuit of long-term capital growth as a primary objective.
  2. Withdrawal rates between 3.6% and 7.4% require a primary focus on satisfying withdrawal needs over the market cycle, possibly with a secondary goal of long-term capital growth to protect future withdrawal needs.
  3. Withdrawal rates greater than 7.5% are likely to result in a depletion of capital, so the goal should be to manage the drawdown of capital by dampening year-to-year volatility of the portfolio.

While we all would like to achieve capital growth, the ability to pursue growth-oriented strategies depends on the flexibility to moderate withdrawals, if required by market conditions, and on the overall reliance on these assets.

As another example, an endowment can control its withdrawals to some extent, but there is a level beyond which the belt cannot be tightened without harming the services being funded.

Yet another example comes from a physician-executive or someone living primarily on an IRA account, especially after becoming accustomed to the high (and falling) interest rate/high asset return environment of the last fifteen years.  Aggressively pursuing capital growth in the face of large withdrawals may result in exposure to significant risk of depletion of the IRA assets when other sources of income are unavailable.

If, on the other hand, the IRA was a small part of the wealth available in retirement, then there is some flexibility to work towards long-term capital growth.

Financial Planning MDs 2015

Implications for defined benefit retirement plans

A defined benefit retirement plan may have an outside source of funding to help restore capital (i.e., contributions from the employer), but defined contribution and Taft-Hartley plans have much less of a safety net.  As a result, the risk taken to pursue growth in the face of significant withdrawals must take into account the nature of the assets and the problems associated with a deterioration of capital in the account.

Assessment

And so, withdrawals can have a significant impact on the ability of a manager to preserve capital and pursue long-term capital growth.  However, while lessening the level of withdrawals will help provide flexibility for the manager to pursue these goals, the need for the assets may require that withdrawals are maintained at a certain level.  Once withdrawals are minimized, the manager should focus on investment goals that correspond with this minimum level.

If withdrawals are below 3% of current market value, pursuit of long-term capital growth can be a primary objective.  Withdrawals between 4% and 7.5% of market value on an annual basis require a focus on working towards satisfying these annual needs.  Long-term capital growth, in this case, should be a secondary goal.

Finally, if withdrawals are above a 7.5% annual rate, then the investment management approach should focus on preserving capital and dampening market volatility so as to work towards allowing the assets to last as long as possible as they are drawn down.

NOTE: The 10-year Treasury rate’s just fell below 3.91% after Fed, ECB nominees; today.

Conclusion

This historical review paper provides a retrospective review of IRs and implications for modernity.

Your thoughts and comments on this ME-P are appreciated. Feel free to review our top-left column, and top-right sidebar materials, links, URLs and related websites, too. Then, subscribe to the ME-P. It is fast, free and secure.

Speaker: If you need a moderator or speaker for an upcoming event, Dr. David E. Marcinko; MBA – Publisher-in-Chief of the Medical Executive-Post – is available for seminar or speaking engagements. Contact: MarcinkoAdvisors@msn.com

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DAILY UPDATE: DJIA Rockets Upward!

By Staff Reporters

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Here is where the major benchmarks ended:

  • The S&P 500 index was up 17.22 points (0.4%) at 4,567.80, up 8.9% for the month; the Dow Jones Industrial Average was up 520.47 points (1.5%) at 35,950.89, up 8.8% for the month; the NASDAQ Composite was down 32.27 points (0.2%) at 14,226.22, up 10.7% for the month.
  • The 10-year Treasury note yield (TNX) was up about 6 basis points at 4.33%.
  • CBOE® Volatility Index (VIX) was down 0.07 at 12.91.

The Dow’s gain Thursday was driven in part by Salesforce (CRM), which soared nearly 9% after the cloud software company reported stronger-than-expected quarterly results. The technology sector was otherwise soft, with the NASDAQ-100® (NDX) down 0.7% but still up 10.7% for the month. Small-cap stocks also posted a firm November, illustrated by a monthly gain of nearly 9% in the Russell 2000® Index (RUT).

And, Nathan Peterson, director of derivatives analysis at the Schwab Center for Financial Research, said the weakness in tech shares likely reflected consolidation after firm gains earlier this month. The NASDAQ Composite may also face some technical resistance around 14,350, a level where sellers stepped in back in July.

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Medical Endowment Fund Manager Selection

Are External Financial Consultants Necessary?

[By Dr. David E. Marcinko MBA CMP]

http://www.CertifiedMedicalPlanner.org

John English, of the Ford Foundation, once observed that:

[T]he thing that is most interesting to me is that every one of the managers is able to give me a chart that shows me he was in the first quartile or the first decile. I have never had a prospective manager come in and say, ‘We’re in the fourth quartile or bottom decile’.

According to Wayne Firebaugh CPA, CFP® CMP™ most medical endowment funds today, even those with internal investment staff, rely heavily upon consultants and external managers.

In fact, a 2006 Commonfund Benchmarks Healthcare Study revealed that 85% of all surveyed institutions relied upon consultants with an even greater percentage of larger endowments relying upon consultants.  The common reasons given by endowments for such reliance are augmenting staff and oddly enough, cost containment.  In essence, the endowment staff’s job becomes one of managing the managers.

Manager Selection 

Even those endowments that use consultants to assist in selecting outside managers remain involved in the selection and monitoring process.  Interestingly, performance should generally not be the overriding criterion for selecting a manager.  Selecting a manager could be viewed as a two-step process in which the endowment first establishes its initial allocation and determines what classes will require an external manager.  The second part of the process is to select a manager that due diligence has indicated to have two primary characteristics: integrity and a repeatable and sustainable systematic process.  These characteristics are interrelated, as a manager who embodies integrity will also strive to follow the established investment selection process.

Of Medical-Managers

In medicine, obtaining the best care often means consulting a specialist.  As a manager of managers, the average endowment should seek specialist managers within a given asset class. Just as physicians and healthcare institutions gain additional insight and skill in their area of specialty, investment managers may be able to gain informational or system advantages within a given concentrated area of investments.

Assessment

Since most plan managers are seeking positive alpha by actively managing certain asset classes, many successful endowments will use a greater number of external managers in the concentrated segments than they will in the larger, more efficient markets.

Conclusion

Your thoughts and comments on this ME-P are appreciated. Feel free to review our top-left column, and top-right sidebar materials, links, URLs and related websites, too. Then, subscribe to the ME-P. It is fast, free and secure.

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OPEN LETTER: MARCINKO Associates, Inc.

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ALL MEDICAL AND HEALTHCARE COLLEAGUES

Did you know that at MARCINKO & Associates, all medical colleagues throughout the United States may contact us when they are considering the sale, purchase, strategic operating improvement, merger, acquisition and/or other financial business or related personal financial planning transaction?

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Our difference is “hard” knowledge and insider financial guidance that helps medical colleagues, nurses, private practitioners, clinics, ambulatory surgery, radiology and outpatient wound care centers realize their ultimate economic goals. This typically includes managerial and cost accounting, financial ratio analysis, fair market valuation business appraisals, business plan creation and personal financial planning.

MORE: https://marcinkoassociates.com/fmv-appraisals/

Our “expert witness” business litigation support service and divorce mediation, arbitration, asset division, settlement and second opinion offerings are always available, as well.

MORE: https://marcinkoassociates.com/expert-witness/

And, our “soft” skill professional career guidance and mentoring center includes executive coaching, consulting and mentoring advisory programs for stressed, conflicted or burned-out physicians and medical practitioners.

Most importantly, our professional fees are reasonable and always transparent.

MARCINKO & Associates also serves universities, medical, business, graduate and nursing schools; physicians, dentists, podiatrists, optometrists and legal societies. This includes accountants, financial service providers, wealth and hedge fund managers, emerging entities, hospitals, CEOs and their BODs, the press, media and related organizations.

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Now, please review our website to learn more.

And, always retain us when needed.

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email: MarcinkoAdvisors@msn.com

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e-BOOKS: For Doctors, Financial Advisors, CPAs, Insurance Agents, Medical Consultants and Health Law Attorneys

By Ann Miller RN MHA CMP

INTRODUCING OUR NEXT GENERATION e-BOOK LIBRARY FROM iMBA, Inc.

An e-book is an electronic or digital book that can be read on a computer or a handheld device.

Our new e-books consists of text, images, and are fixed to a specific spot on the page.

And, our e-books are a data files similar in content and structure to a word-processing document that comes in a PDF format. To use our e-books, you need to purchase and download it to a device that has a .pdf file reader app, such as ADOBE® or similar on a smartphone, tablet or computer. A PDF, also known as a portable document format, is the format most people are familiar with and used in our e-books. PDFs are known for their ease of use and ability to hold custom layouts. They are the most commonly used e-Book formats, especially by professionals and adult-learners.

You can then access the e-book and read it, or highlight pages and even take side notes.

e-Books Save Money

With no manufacturing, printing, binding or shipping costs, e-Books are cheaper than traditional hard or paper back books.The price of each specialized and highly niche focused e-Book [50-100 pages] is only $25, whereas similar paperback printed books of this type generally cost $145, or more!

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FIDUCIARY ADVICE: For Physicians, Nurses and Medical Professionals

By Ann Miller RN MHA CPHQ CMP

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INVESTMENT ADVISORY & PORTFOLIO OPINIONS, MEDICAL START-UPS, ESTABLISHED PRACTICE VALUATIONS, BUSINESS MANAGEMENT AND EXPERT WITNESS CONSULTING

“FROM CHAOS-TO-CALM”

If you’re looking at this ME-P tab, chances are you are fed up, burned out, seeking practice management techniques or a better work-life balance; looking for a new non-clinical career, thinking of finance, investing, retirement, or all of the above. Perhaps you are just looking to regain the joy and meaning in your medical or professional career?

And so, we can help. From informal coaching and mentoring – to second opinions and more formal business, legal and/or financial consulting. Regardless, the need is real.

No Worries! You may have come to the right place.

A Fiduciary At Your Service

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FIDUCIARY OPINIONS: Secure Investment Advisory -OR- Medical Practice Management Advice

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MARCINKO & ASSOCIATES, Inc.

Dr. David Edward Marcinko MBA CMP®

Certified Medical Planner®

SPONSOR: http://www.CertifiedMedicalPlanner.org

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FINANCIAL PLANNING

CAREER DEVELOPMENT

MEDICAL PRACTICE BUY IN / OUT

INVESTMENT ANALYSIS

PORTFOLIO MANAGEMENT

MERGERS AND ACQUISITIONS

PRACTICE APPRAISALS AND VALUATIONS

RETIREMENT PLANNING

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CONTACT: Ann Miller RN MHA

EMAIL: MarcinkoAdvisors@msn.com

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FIDUCIARY: Obtain an Unbiased 2nd Financial Advisory -or- Economic Practice Management Opinion

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Dr. David Edward Marcinko MBA CMP®

Certified Medical Planner®

SPONSOR: http://www.CertifiedMedicalPlanner.org

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FINANCIAL PLANNING

CAREER DEVELOPMENT

MEDICAL PRACTICE BUY IN / OUT

INVESTMENT ANALYSIS

PORTFOLIO MANAGEMENT

MERGERS AND ACQUISITIONS

PRACTICE APPRAISALS AND VALUATIONS

RETIREMENT PLANNING

FEE-ONLY

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CONTACT: Ann Miller RN MHA

EMAIL: MarcinkoAdvisors@msn.com

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Modern Portfolio Theory and Asset Allocation [Not Correlation]

THE CORRELATION HOT TOPIC

ACADEMIC C.V. | DAVID EDWARD MARCINKO

By Dr. David Edward Marcinko MBA CMP©

SPONSOR: http://www.CertifiedMedicalPlanner.org

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Modern Portfolio Theory approaches investing by examining the complete market and the full economy. MPT places a great emphasis on the correlation between investments. 

DEFINITION:

Correlation is a measure of how frequently one event tends to happen when another event happens. High positive correlation means two events usually happen together – high SAT scores and getting through college for instance. High negative correlation means two events tend not to happen together – high SATs and a poor grade record.

No correlation means the two events are independent of one another. In statistical terms two events that are perfectly correlated have a “correlation coefficient” of 1; two events that are perfectly negatively correlated have a correlation coefficient of -1; and two events that have zero correlation have a coefficient of 0.

Correlation has been used over the past twenty years by institutions and financial advisors to assemble portfolios of moderate risk.  In calculating correlation, a statistician would examine the possibility of two events happening together, namely:

  • If the probability of A happening is 1/X;
  • And the probability of B happening is 1/Y; then
  • The probability of A and B happening together is (1/X) times (1/Y), or 1/(X times Y).

There are several laws of correlation including;

  1. Combining assets with a perfect positive correlation offers no reduction in portfolio risk.  These two assets will simply move in tandem with each other.
  2. Combining assets with zero correlation (statistically independent) reduces the risk of the portfolio.  If more assets with uncorrelated returns are added to the portfolio, significant risk reduction can be achieved.
  3. Combing assets with a perfect negative correlation could eliminate risk entirely.   This is the principle with “hedging strategies”.  These strategies are discussed later in the book.

Citation: https://www.r2library.com/Resource/Title/0826102549

BUT – CORRELATION IS NOT CAUSATION

https://medicalexecutivepost.com/2021/02/05/correlation-is-not-causation/

In the real world, negative correlations are very rare 

Most assets maintain a positive correlation with each other.  The goal of a prudent investor is to assemble a portfolio that contains uncorrelated assets.  When a portfolio contains assets that possess low correlations, the upward movement of one asset class will help offset the downward movement of another.  This is especially important when economic and market conditions change.

As a result, including assets in your portfolio that are not highly correlated will reduce the overall volatility (as measured by standard deviation) and may also increase long-term investment returns. This is the primary argument for including dissimilar asset classes in your portfolio. Keep in mind that this type of diversification does not guarantee you will avoid a loss.  It simply minimizes the chance of loss. 

In the table provided by Ibbotson, the average correlation between the five major asset classes is displayed. The lowest correlation is between the U.S. Treasury Bonds and the EAFE (international stocks).  The highest correlation is between the S&P 500 and the EAFE; 0.77 or 77 percent. This signifies a prominent level of correlation that has grown even larger during this decade.   Low correlations within the table appear most with U.S. Treasury Bills.

Historical Correlation of Asset Classes

Benchmark                             1          2          3         4         5         6            

1 U.S. Treasury Bill                  1.00    

2 U.S. Bonds                          0.73     1.00    

3 S&P 500                               0.03     0.34     1.00    

4 Commodities                         0.15     0.04     0.08      1.00      

5 International Stocks              -0.13    -0.31    0.77      0.14    1.00       

6 Real Estate                           0.11      0.43    0.81     -0.02    0.66     1.00

Table Source: Ibbotson 1980-2012

Comprehensive Financial Planning Strategies for Doctors and Advisors: Best Practices from Leading Consultants and Certified Medical Planners™

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Musings on a Famous Portfolio Asset Allocation Study

Some Critics Claim Brinson, Hood, and Beebower Conclusions Wrong

[By Dr. David Edward Marcinko MBA CMP™]

http://www.CertifiedMedicalPlanner.org

[Publisher-in-Chief]

Frequently, we hear the axiom that asset allocation is the most important investment decision, explaining 93.6% of portfolio returns. The presumption has been that once the risk tolerance and time horizon have been established, investing is simply a matter of implementing a fixed mix of stocks, bonds, and cash using mutual funds selected for this purpose. This axiom is based on a famous study by Brinson, Hood, and Beebower (BHB) published in the Financial Analysts Journal in July/August 1986. It is the stuff of most modern business school and graduate students in economics and finance.

Enter the Critics

One critic claims that BHB’s conclusions and the interpretation of their conclusions are wrong, stating that because of several methodological problems, BHB needed to make certain assumptions for their analysis to go forward. They assumed that the average asset-class weights for the 10-year period studied are the same as the actual normal policy weights; that investments in foreign stocks, real estate, private placements, and venture capital can be proxied by a mix of stocks, bonds, and cash; and that the benchmarks for stocks, bonds, and cash against which fund performance was measured are appropriate. The author believes that each of these assumptions can lead to a faulty measurement of success or failure at market timing and stock selection.

The Jahnke Study

William Jahnke claims that BHB erred in their focus on explaining the variation of quarterly portfolio returns rather than portfolio returns over the 10-year period studied. According to the study, asset allocation policy explains only a small fraction of the range of 10-year portfolio returns earned by the pension funds reported in the study. The author concluded that this discrepancy is caused by the effect of compounding returns. He adds that BHB were wrong to use variance of quarterly returns rather than the standard deviation. Use of standard deviation would reduce the often cited 93.6% to about 79%. Moreover, BHB did not consider the cost of investing, such as operating expenses, management fees, brokerage commissions, and other trading costs, which are more significant for individual investors than for the pension plans studied. Jahnke claims that excessive costs can reduce wealth accumulation by 50%.

Note: (“The Asset Allocation Hoax,” William W. Jahnke, Journal of Financial Planning, February 1997, Institute of Certified Financial Planners [303] 759-4900).

Assessment

Finally, the author takes issue with establishing long-term fixed asset class weights. Asset allocation should be a dynamic process. Higher equity return expectations should in turn produce larger equity allocations, other things being equal.

Certified Medical Planner

Conclusion

Are doctors different than the average investor noted in this essay?

Your thoughts and comments on this ME-P are appreciated. Feel free to review our top-left column, and top-right sidebar materials, links, URLs and related websites, too. Then, subscribe to the ME-P. It is fast, free and secure.

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Speaker: If you need a moderator or speaker for an upcoming event, Dr. David E. Marcinko; MBA – Publisher-in-Chief of the Medical Executive-Post – is available for seminar or speaking engagements. Contact: MarcinkoAdvisors@msn.com

OUR OTHER PRINT BOOKS AND RELATED INFORMATION SOURCES:

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  Risk Management, Liability Insurance, and Asset Protection Strategies for Doctors and Advisors: Best Practices from Leading Consultants and Certified Medical Planners™8Comprehensive Financial Planning Strategies for Doctors and Advisors: Best Practices from Leading Consultants and Certified Medical Planners™

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e-BOOKS: For Doctors, Financial Advisors, CPAs, Insurance Agents, Medical Consultants and Health Law Attorneys

By Ann Miller RN MHA CMP

INTRODUCING OUR NEXT GENERATION e-BOOK LIBRARY FROM iMBA, Inc.

An e-book is an electronic or digital book that can be read on a computer or a handheld device.

Our new e-books consists of text, images, and are fixed to a specific spot on the page.

And, our e-books are a data files similar in content and structure to a word-processing document that comes in a PDF format. To use our e-books, you need to purchase and download it to a device that has a .pdf file reader app, such as ADOBE® or similar on a smartphone, tablet or computer. A PDF, also known as a portable document format, is the format most people are familiar with and used in our e-books. PDFs are known for their ease of use and ability to hold custom layouts. They are the most commonly used e-Book formats, especially by professionals and adult-learners.

You can then access the e-book and read it, or highlight pages and even take side notes.

e-Books Save Money

With no manufacturing, printing, binding or shipping costs, e-Books are cheaper than traditional hard or paper back books.The price of each specialized and highly niche focused e-Book [50-100 pages] is only $25, whereas similar paperback printed books of this type generally cost $145, or more!

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FINANCIAL INVESTING RISKS DOCTORS SHOULD KNOW

Types & Definitions

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Financial Investing risk is any of various types of risk associated with financing, including financial transactions that include company loans in risk of default. Often it is understood to include only downside risk, meaning the potential for financial loss and uncertainty about its extent.

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See the source image

BY DR. DAVID E. MARCINKO MBA CMP®

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SPONSOR: http://www.CertifiedMedicalPlanner.org

Understanding Financial Risk

Although broad investing risks can be quickly summarized as “the failure to achieve spending and inflation-adjusted growth goals,” individual assets may face any number of other subsidiary risks:

  • Call risk – The risk, faced by a holder of a callable bond that a bond issuer will take advantage of the callable bond feature and redeem the issue prior to maturity. This means the bondholder will receive payment on the value of the bond and, in most cases, will be reinvesting in a less favorable environment (one with a lower interest rate)
  • Capital risk – The risk an investor faces that he or she may lose all or part of the principal amount invested.
  • Commodity risk – The threat that a change in the price of a production input will adversely impact a producer who uses that input.
  • Company risk – The risk that certain factors affecting a specific company may cause its stock to change in price in a different way from stocks as a whole.
  • Concentration risk – Probability of loss arising from heavily lopsided exposure to a particular group of counterparties
  • Counterparty risk – The risk that the other party to an agreement will default.
  • Credit risk – The risk of loss of principal or loss of a financial reward stemming from a borrower’s failure to repay a loan or otherwise meet a contractual obligation.
  • Currency risk – A form of risk that arises from the change in price of one currency against another.
  • Deflation risk – A general decline in prices, often caused by a reduction in the supply of money or credit.
  • Economic risk – the likelihood that an investment will be affected by macroeconomic conditions such as government regulation, exchange rates, or political stability.
  • Hedging risk – Making an investment to reduce the risk of adverse price movements in an asset.
  • Inflation risk – The uncertainty over the future real value (after inflation) of your investment.
  • Interest rate risk – Risk to the earnings or market value of a portfolio due to uncertain future interest rates.
  • Legal risk – risk from uncertainty due to legal actions or uncertainty in the applicability or interpretation of contracts, laws or regulations.
  • Liquidity risk – The risks stemming from the lack of marketability of an investment that cannot be bought or sold quickly enough to prevent or minimize a loss.

CITE: https://www.r2library.com/Resource/Title/0826102549

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Risk Management, Liability Insurance, and Asset Protection Strategies for Doctors and Advisors: Best Practices from Leading Consultants and Certified Medical Planners™

Risk Management Textbook: https://www.routledge.com/Risk-Management-Liability-Insurance-and-Asset-Protection-Strategies-for/Marcinko-Hetico/p/book/9781498725989

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DAILY UPDATE: About the Markets

By Staff Reporters

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Major U.S. stock indexes ended mixed, after the announcement of a surprise OPEC+ production cut sent crude oil prices to two-month highs and fueled inflation concerns that could keep the Federal Reserve in policy-tightening mode. This weekend, several OPEC+ members, including Saudi Arabia, announced production cuts totaling nearly 1.2 million barrels a day that are slated to start in May. In response, WTI crude futures soared above $80 a barrel. Word of the planned cuts also boosted expectations that the Fed could raise its benchmark interest rate again in May as the central bank extends efforts to tamp down inflation. The OPEC+ cuts “suggest more headline inflation pressure in the near-term,” says Jeffrey Kleintop, chief global investment strategist at Charles Schwab & Co. The potential for further waves of inflation will “keep central banks from declaring victory over excessive price gains,” he adds. “That’s another headwind for tech stocks and other ‘long duration’ equities that get more of their cash flow in the future than in the near term.”

CITE: https://www.r2library.com

The following is a round-up of today’s market activity:

  • The S&P 500® Index was up 15.2 (0.4%) at 4124.51, the highest close since Feb. 15; the Dow Jones industrial average was up 327 (1.0%) at 33601.15; the NASDAQ Composite was down 32.45 (0.3%) at 12189.45.
  • The 10-year Treasury yield was down about 7 basis points at 3.417%.
  • CBOE’s Volatility Index was down 0.14 at 18.56.

Oil producers and other energy companies led gainers Monday. Health care stocks also outperformed. Consumer discretionary and real estate were among the laggards.

Among individual stocks, Tesla (TSLA) shares tumbled over 6% following reports the electric car-maker delivered just 423,000 vehicles in the first quarter. Analysts had expected 430,000, according to research firm FactSet.

Looking ahead, medical companies, especially vaccine makers, may be worth watching this week with the World Vaccine Congress taking place in Washington, D.C. Some well-known vaccine makers include Moderna (MRNA), Johnson & Johnson (JNJ), and GlaxoSmithKline (GSK). Late last month, Walgreens Boots Alliance (WBA) reported a steep year-over-year decline in demand for COVID-19 vaccinations.

The U.S. dollar index fell slightly, while gold futures climbed above $2,000 per ounce to post their highest close in over two years.

CITE: https://www.amazon.com/Dictionary-Health-Information-Technology-Security/dp/0826149952/ref=sr_1_5?ie=UTF8&s=books&qid=1254413315&sr=1-5

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About Securities “Shelf Registration”

A Primer for Physician Investors and Medical Professionals

By: Dr. David Edward Marcinko; MBA, CMP™

SPONSOR: http://www.CertifiedMedicalPlanner.org

[Editor-in-Chief]

[PART 5 OF 8]

Dr. Marcinko with ME-P Fans

NOTE: This is an eight part ME-P series based on a weekend lecture I gave more than a decade ago to an interested group of graduate, business and medical school students. The material is a bit dated and some facts and specifics may have changed since then. But, the overall thought-leadership information of the essay remains interesting and informative. We trust you will enjoy it.

Introduction

A relatively new method of registration under the Act of ’33 is known as shelf registration. Under this rule, an issuer may register any amount of securities that, at the time the registration statement becomes effective, is reasonably expected to be offered and sold within two years of the initial effective date of the registration. Once registered, the securities may be sold continuously or periodically within 2 years without any waiting period for a registration to clear issuers generally like shelf registration because of the flexibility it gives them to take advantage of changing market conditions.

In addition, the legal, accounting, and printing costs involved in issuance are reduced, since a single registration statement suffices for multiple offerings within the 2 year period. In effect, what the issuer does is register securities that will meet its financing needs for the next 2  years. It issues what it needs at the current time, and puts the balance on the shelf” to be taken off the shelf as needed.

SECURITIES MARKETS 

The purchase of common stock in an IPO (initial public offering) is facilitated through of the members an investment bank underwriting syndicate or selling group. This is known as the primary market and the proceeds of sale go directly to the issuing company. Six months later however, if a doctor wants to sell his shares, this would be accomplished in the secondary market. The term secondary market refers to trading in outstanding issues as the proceeds do not go to the issuer, but to the current owner of the securities, such as the physician investor.

Therefore, the secondary market provides liquidity to doctors who acquired securities in the primary market. After a doctor has acquired securities in the primary market, he wants to be able to sell the securities at some point in the future in order to acquire other securities, buy a house, or go on a vacation. Such a sale takes place in the secondary market. The medical investor’s ability to convert the asset (securities) into cash is heavily dependent upon the secondary market. All investors would be hesitant to acquire new securities if they felt they would not subsequently have the ability to sell the securities quickly at a fair price in the secondary market.

Securities Act of 1934

Every trade of stocks and bonds that is not a purchase of a new issue is a trade that takes place in the secondary market. The market place for secondary trading is the stock exchanges and the over-the-counter (OTC) market, and is governed by the Securities Act of 1934, which actually created the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) and outlines the powers of the SEC to interpret, supervise, and enforce the securities laws of the United States. The Act of 34 is very broad and governs the sales of securities, including the regulation of securities markets exchanges, OTC markets, broker/dealers, their employees, the conduct of secondary markets, the extension of credit in the purchase and sale of securities, and the conduct of corporate insiders (officers and directors and holders of more than 10% of the outstanding stock). The Act also prohibits fraud and manipulative and deceptive activities in securities transactions

The Stock Exchanges

A stock exchange is a private association of brokers. The main purpose of an exchange is to provide a central meeting place for its member-brokers. This central meeting place is called the floor. It is on the floor that the members trade in securities. It is important to remember that a stock exchange itself does not own any of the securities that are traded on its floor. Nor does it buy or sell any of the securities traded on the exchange. Instead, the securities are owned by member firms, customers, or perhaps, by the exchange member firm itself.

It is also important to remember that a stock exchange does not establish or fix the price at which any security is traded on the exchange. The price is determined in a free and open auction type of trading. It depends on the supply and  demand relationship of that security at a particular time. In other words, if sellers of a stock are offering to sell more shares of that stock than buyers want to buy, the price of that stock will tend to go down. On the other hand, if buyers want to buy more shares of a stock than the sellers are offering to sell, the price of that stock will tend to go higher because of the strong demand.

Any discussion of stock exchanges has to focus on the NYSE, which is by far the largest and most important of the exchanges. There are two exchanges referred to as national stock exchanges, the NYSE and the American Stock Exchange (AMEX). In addition to these two national exchanges, there are several regional stock exchanges including the Philadelphia Exchange, the Chicago Exchange (formerly Midwest), the Pacific Exchange, the Boston Exchange, and the Cincinnati Exchange. Stocks that are traded on an exchange are referred to as listed stocks. The term “listed on an exchange” means that the issue is eligible for trading on the floor of the exchange.

How does a stock become listed? The issuing company, having decided that they wish the prestige and broad visibility of being listed on the NYSE, applies to the exchange for listing. A critical condition for listing is that the issuer agrees to solicit proxies from those common stock shareholders unable to attend shareholder meetings. Once the securities have been accepted for listing (trading) on an exchange, the issuer must continue to meet certain requirements which are not quite as stringent as the original listing requirements, and may be de-listed if the firm ceases to solicit proxies on its existing voting stock, or meet other minimal requirements.

Physically, the exchange brings together buyers and sellers on a trading floor. The NYSE floor is larger than several football fields and is divided into 19 trading posts. Eighteen of the posts are horseshoe or U-shaped stations 100 square feet in area. The nineteenth post (post number 30) is in the northwest corer and really isn’t a post at all; it’s just an area where the inactive stocks trade.

The Specialist

Specialists are experts in trading one or more specific stocks at their particular post on the exchange floor. Their activity is vital to the maintenance of a free and continuous market in the specific issues they represent. They are responsible for conducting the auction at the post. Everyone interested in buying the stock calls out a price and the shares go to the highest bidder. The buyers compete, but there is only one seller. Unlike the usual auction market, the auction on the floor of the exchange is a two way auction with some brokers seeking to buy at the lowest possible price for their doctor clients and other brokers trying to sell at the highest possible price for their doctor clients. When two brokers, one representing a buyer and one a seller, agree on a price, a sale is made. The specialist functions in a dual capacity as a dealer and as a broker. As a dealer or principal, he buys and sells for his own account and risk to maintain a fair and orderly market in the stocks in which he specializes.

For example, if a commission broker approaches the specialist at the post with a buy or sell order, and there are no other brokers in the crowd, that is currently interested in buying or selling the stock, the specialist will buy the stock from that commission broker (if it’s a sell order) for his own account or sell the stock from his inventory (if it’s a buy order). Perhaps, he may even be able to fill the order from his specialist’s book?

Stock_Market

Specialist’s Book

This is done by using the specialist’s book of buy orders (bids), marked on the left hand page, or sell orders (offers) on the right. There is a book for each stock in which the specialist specializes. The pages are ruled and are usually printed with fractional stock points at regular intervals to permit easy insertion of orders. The orders are entered in the book by the specialist according to price and in the sequence in which they are received at the post. He notes the number of shares, putting down 1 for 100 shares, 2 for 200 shares, etc. He also notes the name of the member firm placing the order and if the order is Good Till Cancelled (GTC), or not. When orders are executed, they are executed in the same order recorded in the book at that particular price.

The specialist’s book also keeps track of all orders “away from the market ” (limit orders and stop orders) in his book. The book is organized with all buy orders on the left hand side of the page and all sell orders on the right hand side. In the absence of bids and offers from the “trading crowd” on the floor, the specialist can quote the best available market for the security by announcing the highest bid and the lowest offer (ask). The best bid is always the highest buy limit order on his book and the best offer (ask) is always the lowest sell limit on his book. In addition to quoting the best price, he will also give the “size of the market ” which is determined by the number of shares being bid for and offered at the respective best bid and best ask prices. The quote is price and size. When asked to quote the market for a security, the specialist disregards any stop orders on his book since those orders do not become activated until triggered by another trade. One thing to remember is that since most doctors place stop orders to hedge (protect) against a price movement adverse to their interests, most stop orders are entered with the fervent wish that they never be executed.

On stop and limit orders placed below the market, the specialist is required to reduce the price of those orders on the ex-dividend (ex-split, ex-rights) date. The two critical things to remember are: what types of orders are reduced and by how much? The specialist will reduce all GTC (open) buy limit and sell stop orders on an ex-date. You may remember this with the acronym BLISS where the BL equals buy limit and the SS equals sell stop. The only time either of these orders will not be reduced is if the medical client turned in DNR (do not reduce) instructions.

The price of the order is then reduced by enough to equal or exceed the amount of the dividend.

If we go back to the example approaching the specialist to buy or sell stock and there is no one in the “crowd”, the specialist will first give the commission broker a quote from his book. That quote will be the highest bid price (the highest priced limit order to buy on his books) and the best asked price {the lowest priced sell limit on his books). If the commission broker is willing to buy at the lowest ask or offering price on the specialist’s book, then a trade will take place; if the commission broker is looking to sell and is willing to accept the highest bid price on the specialist’s book then, again, a trade will take place. It is the responsibility of the specialist to maintain an orderly market and to keep the spread between the bid and asked prices as narrow as possible. If the spread between bid and asked is too wide to generate market activity, the specialist will act on his own account.

If the specialist is presented with sell orders at the post and he has no buyers, he must bid at least 1/8 of a point higher than the best bid on his books. If he has buyers and no sellers, then he must offer stock from his inventory at a price at least, 1/8 of a point below the lowest offer on his book.

Why? It’s because the specialist cannot “compete” with public orders and if his bid matched a customer’s bid or his offer matched a customer’s offering or ask price, he would be considered to be ” competing”.  Since the specialist is required to bid higher and ask lower than the best public orders on his book, the spread is narrowed. That is why it is said that the specialist acts in a dual capacity, as a dealer and as a broker. When buying and selling for his own account, he is acting as a dealer. The specialist acts as a broker when he executes limit orders left with him by commission brokers. When these limit orders are executed out of the specialist’s book (the doctor’s limit price is reached), the specialist uses a priority, parity, and precedence system, as to which order is executed first. These rules, like most others, are designed to give preference to the general public, not to members of the exchange, on a first come first served basis.

Walking Through a Trade

To see how the transactions are actually handled on the floor of an exchange, let us assume that an order to buy 100 shares of General Electric has been given by a doctor customer to the registered representative (stock broker), of a member firm in Atlanta. The order is a market order (an order to buy at the lowest possible price at the time the order reaches the floor of the exchange). This order is telephoned by direct wire, or computer, to the New York office of the member firm, which in turn telephones its order to its clerk on the floor of the exchange.

Each member firm has at least one member of the exchange representing them making trades on the floor. Each one of these members is assigned a number for identification. When the floor clerk receives the order to purchase the General Electric, he causes his member’s call number to appear on 3 large boards situated so that one is always in view. These boards are constantly watched brokers so that they will know when wanted at the phone, since there’s too much noise on the floor to use a paging system. Seeing his number on the board, the broker hurries to his telephone station or cell phone and receives the order to buy 100 shares of G.E. “at the market”. Acting as a commission broker, he immediately goes to the post where G.E. is traded and asks “how’s G.E”, of the specialist?

Part 4: Underwriting US Government Securities Issues

Conclusion

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The Legacy of Dr. Jack Treynor

The History Behind A Popular Investing Theory

[By Dr. David Edward Marcinko MBA CMP™]

http://www.CertifiedMedicalPlanner.org

[Publisher-in-Chief]

In his 1959 “Portfolio Selection,” Harry Markowitz PhD [father of MPT], said that investors should diversify against market risk but that determining the required return from such a group of diversified assets was another matter. Seven years later, economist Jack Treynor PhD wrestled with the issue of how investors can measure the expected risk in a portfolio against its expected return. Meanwhile, William Sharpe developed his own measure of risk and return known as the Capital Asset Pricing Model (CAPM) first published in the Journal of Finance in 1964 and discussed elsewhere on the ME-P.

A Seminal Paper

Treynor’s 1961 paper entitled “Toward a Theory of Market Value of Risky Assets” concluded that investors expect greater compensation for the larger risk they take in the stock market than they do from risk-free assets, such as Treasury bills. He called it the “equity risk premium” and created a method to predict it.

Fisher Black Collaboration

In 1973, Treynor collaborated with Fischer Black to devise a method for predicting the risk premium and to demonstrate its overarching importance in the behavior of capital markets as well as in portfolio selection. From 1969 through 1981 he furthered the work of many leading financial theorists, including Sharpe and Black, when he edited the Financial Analysts Journal.

Intellectual Band-Aid

In an interview about a decade ago, Treynor stated his belief that modern finance is preoccupied with statistical, rather than economic, thinking about risk. He explained that beta has come under attack in recent years because it is a statistical concept of risk. An economic concept of risk would have a lot more predictive value—it would be tied more intimately into fundamental analysis of companies and portfolios. He refers to beta as “just an intellectual Band-Aid.”

The Jensen Alpha

Treynor also described Bill Jensen’s alpha as looking at a market line established by a large number of funds and identifying those that had returns above the market line. Accordingly, a portfolio manager can increase his or her alpha by simply buying and selling larger positions of the same research recommendations.

Assessment

Black and Treynor developed a ratio of alpha to residual risk (return squared /risk squared), which shows that when you have everything else equal and you increase this ratio, you improve performance. And, they actually introduced the term Sharpe ratio.

Note: “It’s All About Odds,” Jonathan Burton, Dow Jones Asset Management, July/August 1997, pp. 20–28, Dow Jones Financial Publishing Corp., (732) 389-8700.

Conclusion

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Understanding Active Asset Allocation

The Two Types of Active Allocation

[By Jeffrey S. Coons; PhD, CFA]

[By Christopher J. Cummings; CFA, CFP™]

ACASometimes, physician investors feel that the markets either overreact or under react to a given piece of news – related to a specific security – and are generally willing to commit their time and resources to find mispriced securities.  

For example, a young physician with a long time horizon may feel that the financial markets are too focused on the near-term following a decline in a pharmaceutical company’s stock from a disappointing FDA report.  Or, the recent banking industry debacle is a good sector wide example of abrupt depression. 

And so, if active asset allocation makes sense based upon the limitations of passive asset allocation in managing risk over even long periods of time, how do physician investors – and their advisors – make active asset allocation decisions?   

The Approaches 

There are two distinct active asset allocation approaches used to build an investment portfolio.   They are the top-down method and the bottom-up method, and they differ based on how important economic and industry variables are to the decision-making process relative to individual security variables.  

Top-Down Approach

Advocates of the top-down approach generally begin their investment process by formulating an outlook for the domestic economy, and in certain circumstances the outlook is constructed for the global economy.  This may be a direct result of a quantitative model using various market and economic data as input to reach a conclusion regarding the best asset mix on a tactical basis, or it may be a more subjective process resulting from a qualitative assessment of the market and economic outlook.

In developing an economic overview for qualitative top-down asset allocation decisions, the medical professional and/or his advisors typically consider factors such as monetary policy, fiscal policy, trade relations, and inflation. Clearly, macroeconomic factors such as those listed above are likely to have a significant impact on the performance of a wide range of investment alternatives.

After a thorough analysis of the overall economy has been completed, top-down investors will either buy broad baskets of stocks representing an asset class or perform an analysis of industries that they believe will benefit from the economic overview that has been developed. 

Factors that may influence the attractiveness of particular industries include regulatory environment, supply and demand of resources, taxes, and import/export quotas. 

The top-down approach generally views the best company in a weak industry as being unlikely to provide satisfactory returns.  

The final step in the top-down process involves analyzing individual companies in industries that are expected to benefit from the forecasted economic environment.  

Stock_Market

Bottom-Up Approach

In contrast, investors employing a bottom-up approach will focus their attention on identifying securities that are priced below the investor’s estimate of their value.

Physicians and investors using the bottom-up approach to asset allocation and portfolio construction will only purchase securities deemed attractive according to their basic pricing and security selection criteria, thus adjusting the overall mix of investments by the limit of securities considered attractive at current valuations.

A truly bottom-up approach will consider economic and industry factors as clearly secondary in identifying investment opportunities. Investors using this approach will focus solely on company analysis.   However, they must recognize that investment decisions cannot be made in a vacuum.  Macroeconomic factors, as well as industry characteristics and traits are likely to be key elements in identifying attractive investment opportunities even on a security-by-security basis.

The key to bottom-up asset allocation and portfolio management is to realize that the decision variables driving the basic mix of assets in the portfolio are more related to the availability of attractive individual investments than to a general top-down market or economic overview.

Are you an active or passive investor?

If an active investor; what type are you?

Conclusion

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  Risk Management, Liability Insurance, and Asset Protection Strategies for Doctors and Advisors: Best Practices from Leading Consultants and Certified Medical Planners™8Comprehensive Financial Planning Strategies for Doctors and Advisors: Best Practices from Leading Consultants and Certified Medical Planners™

[Dr. Cappiello PhD MBA] *** [Foreword Dr. Krieger MD MBA]

Front Matter with Foreword by Jason Dyken MD MBA

Book of Month

A Few Simple Rules For Money Managers

vitaly

[By Vitaliy Katsenelson CFA]

One of the biggest hazards of being a professional money manager is that you are expected to behave in a certain way: You have to come to the office every day, work long hours, slog through countless e-mails, be on top of your portfolio (that is, check performance of your securities minute by minute), watch business TV and consume news continuously, and dress well and conservatively, wearing a rope around the only part of your body that lets air get to your brain. Our colleagues judge us on how early we arrive at work and how late we stay. We do these things because society expects us to, not because they make us better investors or do any good for our clients.

Somehow we let the mindless, Henry Ford–assembly-line, 8:00 a.m. to 5:00 p.m., widgets-per-hour mentality dictate how we conduct our business thinking. Though car production benefits from rigid rules, uniforms, automation and strict working hours, in investing — the business of thinking — the assembly-line culture is counterproductive. Our clients and employers would be better off if we designed our workdays to let us perform our best.

Investing

Investing is not an idea-­per-hour profession; it more likely results in a few ideas per year. A traditional, structured working environment creates pressure to produce an output — an idea, even a forced idea. Warren Buffett once said at a Berkshire Hathaway annual meeting: “We don’t get paid for activity; we get paid for being right. As to how long we’ll wait, we’ll wait indefinitely.”

***

stock-exchange

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How you get ideas is up to you. I am not a professional writer, but as a professional money manager, I learn and think best through writing. I put on my headphones, turn on opera and stare at my computer screen for hours, pecking away at the keyboard — that is how I think. You may do better by walking in the park or sitting with your legs up on the desk, staring at the ceiling.

I do my best thinking in the morning. At 3:00 in the afternoon, my brain shuts off; that is when I read my e-mails. We are all different. My best friend is a brunch person; he needs to consume six cups of coffee in the morning just to get his brain going. To be most productive, he shouldn’t go to work before 11:00 a.m.

And then there’s the business news. Serious business news that lacked sensationalism, and thus ratings, has been replaced by a new genre: business entertainment (of course, investors did not get the memo). These shows do a terrific job of filling our need to have explanations for everything, even random events that require no explanation (like daily stock movements). Most information on the business entertainment channels — Bloomberg Television, CNBC, Fox Business — has as much value for investors as daily weather forecasts have for travelers who don’t intend to go anywhere for a year. Yet many managers have CNBC, Fox or Bloomberg on while they work.

Filters

You may think you’re able to filter the noise. You cannot; it overwhelms you. So don’t fight the noise — block it. Leave the television off while the markets are open, and at the end of the day, check the business channel websites to see if there were interviews or news events that are worth watching.

Don’t check your stock quotes continuously; doing so shrinks your time horizon. As a long-term investor, you analyze a company and value the business over the next decade, but daily stock volatility will negate all that and turn you into a trader. There is nothing wrong with trading, but investors are rarely good traders.

***

idea

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Numerous studies have found that humans are terrible at multitasking. We have a hard time ignoring irrelevant information and are too sensitive to new information. Focus is the antithesis of multitasking. I find that I’m most productive on an airplane. I put on my headphones and focus on reading or writing. There are no distractions — no e-mails, no Twitter, no Facebook, no instant messages, no phone calls. I get more done in the course of a four-hour flight than in two days at the office. But you don’t need to rack up frequent-flier miles to focus; just go into “off mode” a few hours a day: Kill your Internet, turn off your phone, and do what you need to do.

I bet if most of us really focused, we could cut down our workweek from five days to two. Performance would improve, our personal lives would get better, and those eventual heart attacks would be pushed back a decade or two.

Assessment

Take the rope off your neck and wear comfortable clothes to work (I often opt for jeans and a “Life is good” T-shirt). Pause and ask yourself a question: If I was not bound by the obsolete routines of the dinosaur age of assembly-line manufacturing, how would I structure my work to be the best investor I could be? Print this article, take it to your boss and tell him or her, “This is what I need to do to be the most productive 

ABOUT

Vitaliy N. Katsenelson, CFA, is Chief Investment Officer at Investment Management Associates in Denver, Colo. He is the author of Active Value Investing (Wiley 2007) and The Little Book of Sideways Markets (Wiley, 2010).  His books have been translated into eight languages.  Forbes called him – the new Benjamin Graham.

Conclusion

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Speaker: If you need a moderator or speaker for an upcoming event, Dr. David E. Marcinko; MBA – Publisher-in-Chief of the Medical Executive-Post – is available for seminar or speaking engagements. Contact: MarcinkoAdvisors@msn.com

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***

PODCAST: Hedge Fund Manager Michael Burry MD

In The Subprime of His Life – My Story

By Dr. David Edward Marcinko MBA, CMP™

[Editor-in-Chief]

I am a long time fan of financial industry journalist Michael Lewis [Liars’ Poker, Moneyball and others] who just released a new book. The Big Short is a chronicle of four players in the subprime mortgage market who had the foresight [and testosterone] to short the diciest mortgage deals: Steve Eisner of FrontPoint, Greg Lippmann at Deutsche Bank, the three partners at Cornwall Capital, and most indelibly, Wall Street outsider Michael Burry MD of Scion Capital.

They all walked away from the disaster with pockets full of money and reputations as geniuses.

About Mike

Now, I do not know the first three folks, but I do know a little something about my colleague Michael Burry MD; he is indeed a very smart guy. Mike is a nice guy too, who also has a natural writing style that I envy [just request and read his quarterly reports for a stylized sample]. He gave me encouragement and insight early in my career transformation – from doctor to “other”.

And, he confirmed my disdain for the traditional financial services [retail sales] industry, Wall Street and their registered representatives and ‘training’ system, and sad broker-dealer ethos [suitability versus fiduciary accountability] despite being a hedge fund manager himself.

I mentioned him in my book: “Insurance and Risk Management Strategies” [For Physicians and their Advisors].

http://www.amazon.com/Insurance-Management-Strategies-Physicians-Advisors/dp/0763733423/ref=sr_1_2?ie=UTF8&s=books&qid=1269254153&sr=1-2

He ultimately helped me eschew financial services organizations, “certifications”, “designations” and ”colleges”, and their related SEO rules, SEC regulations and policy wonks; and above all to go with my gut … and go it alone!

And so, I rejected my certified financial planner [marketing] designation status as useless for me, and launched the www.CertifiedMedicalPlanner.org on-line educational program for physician focused financial advisors and management consultants interested in the healthcare space … who wish to be fiduciaries.

And I thank Mike for the collegial good will. By the way, Mike is not a CPA, nor does he posses an MBA or related advanced degree or designation. He is not a middle-man FA. He is a physician. Unlike far too many other industry “financial advisors” he is not a lemming.

IOW: We are not salesman. We are out-of-the-box thinkers, innovators and contrarians by nature. www.MedicalBusinessAdvisors.com

From a Book Review

According to book reviewer Michael Osinski, writing in the March 22-29 issue of Businessweek.com, Lewis is at his best working with characters and Burry is rendered most vividly.

A loner from a young age, in part because he has a glass eye that made it difficult to look people in the face, Burry excelled at topics that required intense and isolated concentration. Originally, investing was just a hobby while he pursued a career in medicine. As a resident neurosurgeon at Stanford Hospital in the late 1990s, Burry often stayed up half the night typing his ideas onto a message board. Unbeknownst to him, professional money managers began to read and profit from his freely dispensed insight, and a hedge fund eventually offered him $1 million for a quarter of his investment firm, which consisted of a few thousand dollars from his parents and siblings. Another fund later sent him $10 million”.

“Burry’s obsession with finding undervalued companies eventually led him to realize that his own home in San Jose, Calif., was grossly overpriced, along with houses all over the country. He wrote to a friend: “A large portion of the current [housing] demand at current prices would disappear if only people became convinced that prices weren’t rising. The collateral damage is likely to be orders of magnitude worse than anyone now considers.” This was in 2003.

“Through exhaustive research, Burry understood that subprime mortgages would be the fuse and that the bonds based on these mortgages would start to blow up within as little as two years, when the original “teaser” rates expired. But Burry did something that separated him from all the other housing bears—he found an efficient way to short the market by persuading Goldman Sachs (GS) to sell him a CDS against subprime deals he saw as doomed. A unique feature of these swaps was that he did not have to own the asset to insure it, and over time, the trade in these contracts overwhelmed the actual market in the underlying bonds”.

“By June 2005, Goldman was writing Burry CDS contracts in $100 million lots, “insane” amounts, according to Burry. In November, Lippmann contacted Burry and tried to buy back billions of dollars of swaps that his bank had sold. Lippmann had noticed a growing wave of subprime defaults showing up in monthly remittance reports and wanted to protect Deutsche Bank from potentially massive losses. All it would take to cause major pain, Lippmann and his analysts deduced, was a halt in price appreciation for homes. An actual fall in prices would bring a catastrophe. By that time, Burry was sure he held winning tickets; he politely declined Lippmann’s offer”

And the rest, as they say, is history.

Link: http://www.businessweek.com/magazine/content/10_12/b4171094664065.htm

My Story … Being a Bit like Mike

I first contacted Mike, by phone and email, more than a decade ago. His hedge fund, Scion Capital, had no employees at the time and he outsourced most of the front and back office activities to concentrate on position selection and management. Early investors were relatives and a few physicians and professors from his medical residency days. Asset gathering was a slosh, indeed. And, in a phone conversation, I remember him confirming my impressions that doctors were not particularly astute investors. For him, they generally had sparse funds to invest as SEC “accredited investors” and were better suited for emerging tax advantaged mutual funds. ETFs were not significantly on the radar screen, back then, and index funds were considered unglamorous. No, his target hedge-fund audience was Silicon Valley.

And, much like his value-hero Warren Buffett [also a Ben Graham and David Dodd devotee], his start while from the doctor space, did not derive its success because of them.

Moreover, like me, he lionized the terms “value investing”, “margin of safety” and “intrinsic value”.

Co-incidentally, as a champion of the visually impaired, I was referred to him by author, attorney and blogger Jay Adkisson www.jayadkisson.com Jay is an avid private pilot having earned his private pilot’s license after losing an eye to cancer.

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Mike again re-entered my cognitive space while doing research for the first edition of our successful print book: “Financial Planning Handbook for Physicians and Advisors” and while searching for physicians who left medicine for alternate careers!

In fact, he wrote the chapter on hedge funds in our print journal and thru the third book edition before becoming too successful for such mundane stuff. We are now in our fourth edition, with a fifth in progress once the Obama administration stuff [healthcare and financial services industry “reform” and new tax laws] has been resolved

http://www.amazon.com/Financial-Planning-Handbook-Physicians-Advisors/dp/0763745790/ref=sr_1_1?ie=UTF8&s=books&qid=1269211056&sr=1-1

Assessment

News: Dr. Burry appeared on 60 Minutes Sunday March 14th, 2010. His activities with Scion Capital are portrayed in Michael Lewis’s newest book, The Big Short.  An excerpt is available in the April 2010 issue of Vanity Fair magazine, and at VanityFair.com 

Video of Dr. Burry: http://www.cbsnews.com/video/watch/?id=6298040n&tag=contentBody;housing

Video of Dr. Burry: http://www.cbsnews.com/video/watch/?id=6298038n&tag=contentBody;housing

PS: Michael Osinski retired from Wall Street and now runs Widow’s Hole Oyster Co. in Greenport, NY http://www.widowsholeoysters.com

And, our www.MedicalBusinessAdvisors.com related books can be reviewed here: http://www.amazon.com/s/ref=nb_sb_noss?url=search-alias%3Dstripbooks&field-keywords=david+marcinko

Assessment

Visit Scion Capital LLC and tell us what you think http://www.scioncapital.com.

And to Mike himself, I say “Mazel Tov” and congratulations? I am sure you will be a good and faithful steward. The greatest legacy one can have is in how they treated the “little people.” You are a champ. Call me – let’s do lunch. And, I am still writing: www.BusinessofMedicalPractice.com for the conjoined space we both LOVE.

Conclusion

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[Dr. Cappiello PhD MBA] *** [Foreword Dr. Krieger MD MBA]

***

SECOND OPINIONS: Physician Financial Planning, Investing, Medical Practice Management and Business Valuations; etc!

BY DR. DAVID EDWARD MARCINKO MBA CMP

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Financial Planning for Medical Professionals

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Musings on a Famous Portfolio Asset Allocation Study

Some Critics Claim Brinson, Hood, and Beebower Conclusions Wrong

[By Dr. David Edward Marcinko MBA CMP™]

http://www.CertifiedMedicalPlanner.org

[Publisher-in-Chief]

Frequently, we hear the axiom that asset allocation is the most important investment decision, explaining 93.6% of portfolio returns. The presumption has been that once the risk tolerance and time horizon have been established, investing is simply a matter of implementing a fixed mix of stocks, bonds, and cash using mutual funds selected for this purpose. This axiom is based on a famous study by Brinson, Hood, and Beebower (BHB) published in the Financial Analysts Journal in July/August 1986. It is the stuff of most modern business school and graduate students in economics and finance.

Enter the Critics

One critic claims that BHB’s conclusions and the interpretation of their conclusions are wrong, stating that because of several methodological problems, BHB needed to make certain assumptions for their analysis to go forward. They assumed that the average asset-class weights for the 10-year period studied are the same as the actual normal policy weights; that investments in foreign stocks, real estate, private placements, and venture capital can be proxied by a mix of stocks, bonds, and cash; and that the benchmarks for stocks, bonds, and cash against which fund performance was measured are appropriate. The author believes that each of these assumptions can lead to a faulty measurement of success or failure at market timing and stock selection.

The Jahnke Study

William Jahnke claims that BHB erred in their focus on explaining the variation of quarterly portfolio returns rather than portfolio returns over the 10-year period studied. According to the study, asset allocation policy explains only a small fraction of the range of 10-year portfolio returns earned by the pension funds reported in the study. The author concluded that this discrepancy is caused by the effect of compounding returns. He adds that BHB were wrong to use variance of quarterly returns rather than the standard deviation. Use of standard deviation would reduce the often cited 93.6% to about 79%. Moreover, BHB did not consider the cost of investing, such as operating expenses, management fees, brokerage commissions, and other trading costs, which are more significant for individual investors than for the pension plans studied. Jahnke claims that excessive costs can reduce wealth accumulation by 50%.

Note: (“The Asset Allocation Hoax,” William W. Jahnke, Journal of Financial Planning, February 1997, Institute of Certified Financial Planners [303] 759-4900).

Assessment

Finally, the author takes issue with establishing long-term fixed asset class weights. Asset allocation should be a dynamic process. Higher equity return expectations should in turn produce larger equity allocations, other things being equal.

Certified Medical Planner

Conclusion

Are doctors different than the average investor noted in this essay?

Your thoughts and comments on this ME-P are appreciated. Feel free to review our top-left column, and top-right sidebar materials, links, URLs and related websites, too. Then, subscribe to the ME-P. It is fast, free and secure.

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SECOND OPINIONS: Physician Financial Planning, Investing, Medical Practice Management and Business Valuations; etc!

BY DR. DAVID EDWARD MARCINKO MBA CMP

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Financial Planning for Medical Professionals

HERE: https://medicalexecutivepost.com/schedule-a-consultation/

CONTACT: Ann Miller RN MHA

770-448-0769

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Alphabet Soup: Financial Designations & Certificates

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financial-designationsjuly

AUTHOR: Dr. David Edward Marcinko; MBA, CMP™

POSITION: Publisher-in-Chief

dem26

TOPIC: Financial Designations and Certifications [Alphabet Soup of Industry Obfuscation and Self-Promotion, or Real Gravitas – You Decide?]

EXCERPT: “Until recently, most financial advisors were regulated by the NASD, the National Association of Securities Dealers. Now the Financial Industry Regulatory Authority or FINRA is the largest non-governmental regulator for all securities firms doing business in the United States. It is a self-regulatory agency comprised of the nation’s brokerage firms. Upon completion of a required exam the FINRA will issue a variety of licenses. The most common are the Series 6, 7, and 24.

The Series 6 is essentially a license to sell packaged products, namely mutual funds. It is most commonly held by insurance agents and bank representatives. It is considered a very easy test. Holding such a license allows the holder to collect commission income through its member firm.

The Series 7 exam is a bit more difficult and includes issues relating to individual securities such as stocks, bonds and limited partnership interests. The pass rate is lower than the Series 6. The probable culprit is the extensive questioning on margin and options, topics most are unfamiliar with prior to entering the securities business.

The Series 24 covers issues of compliance and supervision and is required of Branch Managers of brokerage firms. All registered representatives (the proper name for a broker) must be supervised by someone with a Series 24, also known as a principal’s license.

Checking the background of a registered representative, a branch manager or a member firm is easily done through NASD and/or FINRA Regulation, Inc. NASDR/FINRA maintains the Central Registration Depository (CRD). The CRD can be checked for a description of a disclosed event by phone or by Internet. One should request information on an advisor’s firm as well as the individual. A reputable advisor at a disreputable firm has its own set of potentially dangerous implications.

Regardless of the above, these tests produce licenses to sell financial products. They are not educational achievements. There is virtually no academic barrier to entry for them. Stock-brokers today – hate the term – and prefer “financial advisor”; yet the term has no real meaning other than as a sales license.

Some are college graduates, and beyond; while some other experts argue that too many are not!”

Hence, the need to “raise the bar to fiduciary accountability with deep knowledge of healthcare modernity.”

For more info: http://www.CertifiedMedicalPlanner.org

READ JULY HERE: financial-designationsjuly

Conclusion

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Musings on a Famous Portfolio Asset Allocation Study

Some Critics Claim Brinson, Hood, and Beebower Conclusions Wrong

[By Dr. David Edward Marcinko MBA CMP™]

http://www.CertifiedMedicalPlanner.org

[Publisher-in-Chief]

Frequently, we hear the axiom that asset allocation is the most important investment decision, explaining 93.6% of portfolio returns. The presumption has been that once the risk tolerance and time horizon have been established, investing is simply a matter of implementing a fixed mix of stocks, bonds, and cash using mutual funds selected for this purpose. This axiom is based on a famous study by Brinson, Hood, and Beebower (BHB) published in the Financial Analysts Journal in July/August 1986. It is the stuff of most modern business school and graduate students in economics and finance.

Enter the Critics

One critic claims that BHB’s conclusions and the interpretation of their conclusions are wrong, stating that because of several methodological problems, BHB needed to make certain assumptions for their analysis to go forward. They assumed that the average asset-class weights for the 10-year period studied are the same as the actual normal policy weights; that investments in foreign stocks, real estate, private placements, and venture capital can be proxied by a mix of stocks, bonds, and cash; and that the benchmarks for stocks, bonds, and cash against which fund performance was measured are appropriate. The author believes that each of these assumptions can lead to a faulty measurement of success or failure at market timing and stock selection.

The Jahnke Study

William Jahnke claims that BHB erred in their focus on explaining the variation of quarterly portfolio returns rather than portfolio returns over the 10-year period studied. According to the study, asset allocation policy explains only a small fraction of the range of 10-year portfolio returns earned by the pension funds reported in the study. The author concluded that this discrepancy is caused by the effect of compounding returns. He adds that BHB were wrong to use variance of quarterly returns rather than the standard deviation. Use of standard deviation would reduce the often cited 93.6% to about 79%. Moreover, BHB did not consider the cost of investing, such as operating expenses, management fees, brokerage commissions, and other trading costs, which are more significant for individual investors than for the pension plans studied. Jahnke claims that excessive costs can reduce wealth accumulation by 50%.

Note: (“The Asset Allocation Hoax,” William W. Jahnke, Journal of Financial Planning, February 1997, Institute of Certified Financial Planners [303] 759-4900).

Assessment

Finally, the author takes issue with establishing long-term fixed asset class weights. Asset allocation should be a dynamic process. Higher equity return expectations should in turn produce larger equity allocations, other things being equal.

Certified Medical Planner

Conclusion

Are doctors different than the average investor noted in this essay?

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PODCAST: The Real Secret About Why Corporate Mergers Fail

AN AUDIO PRESENTATION

 

By Vitaliy Katsenelson CFA

***

Corporate acquisitions often fail for one simple reason: the buyer pays too much. An old Wall Street adage comes to mind: Price is what you pay, value is what you get.

It all starts with a control premium

When we purchase shares of a stock, we pay a price that is within pennies of the last trade. When a company is acquired, the purchase price is negotiated during long dinners at fine restaurants and comes with a control premium that is higher than the latest stock quotation.

How much above?

***

Risk Management, Liability Insurance, and Asset Protection Strategies for Doctors and Advisors: Best Practices from Leading Consultants and Certified Medical Planners™8Comprehensive Financial Planning Strategies for Doctors and Advisors: Best Practices from Leading Consultants and Certified Medical Planners™

 

Careers and Net Worth

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Your Career as an Asset Class

By Rick Kahler MS CFP® http://www.KahlerFinancial.com

Rick Kahler CFPIs your [medical] career part of your net worth? Should you include it as an asset class in a diversified investment portfolio? While we consider careers as essential aspects of financial and professional success, few of us think of or manage them as financial assets.

Emerging New Philosophy

Michael Haubrich, CFP®, of Financial Service Group, Inc., in Racine, Wisconsin, encourages clients to think of careers this way. Some of the following ideas come from his new book, Career Asset Management: Getting Ahead, Staying Ahead and Using Your Head to Maximize Your Career Value.

Career as Assset

If you consider your career an asset, then managing it means paying attention to the return you get from that asset. Here are a few things to consider in order in order to receive the most value from a career.

  1. Keep in mind that the most important return on investment from a career is not necessarily financial

The value of a career is much more than just the money you earn; it includes a host of less tangible but vital rewards like the satisfaction you get from your work and the fulfillment that comes from following your dreams and using the talents that make up your unique genius.

  1. Consciously set out to build a career rather than get a job

As with investing, this provides the most benefit when you start early. Settling long-term for “just a job” usually won’t provide as much value, in terms of both income and job satisfaction, as you will get from a meaningful career.

  1. If your career asset isn’t providing a good return, make changes

Just as you might sell an underperforming mutual fund, consider making changes to your career if you aren’t getting the earnings, fulfillment, or other value you want from it. You might look for a similar job with a different company, add skills and knowledge to help you move up, consider changing careers, or explore starting your own business.

One way to fund such changes is to budget for a reserve over and above the six months of living expenses that many financial advisors recommend. Mike calls this reserve an Asset Working Capital Fund. He suggests the amount to have in this fund depends on the “velocity” and “volatility” of your career asset—including how fast you’re likely to advance, the stability of your job and career field, and life changes like starting a family that will affect your income.

  1. Think of your career as a rental property

Mike recommends viewing your career as an asset that you own and rent to others for given periods of time. To get the highest “rent”—income and satisfaction—you need to keep that asset in top shape by keeping your skills and knowledge up to date, maintaining your passion for your work, and building a strong reputation and network of relationships within your profession.

  1. Make the most of your near-retirement years

Wanting to retire early because you’re dissatisfied with your work can be a sign that your career asset isn’t working for you. Yet staying employed for even a few more years can make a big difference in your retirement income. Mike suggests considering options like part-time or contract work, flexible scheduling, consulting, or freelancing to add value to your late-career years. This can help you move into retirement gradually, as well as provide more financial security.

Bear + A Falling Stock Chart

Assessment

Chances are you won’t choose to list your career as an asset class in your investment portfolio. To make the most of both your aspirations and your earning power, however, keep in mind that a satisfying career is one of the most important assets you can own.

More:

Conclusion

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WHO / WHAT Are the Best Predictors of Stock Market Performance?

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Lon Jefferies

By Lon Jefferies MBA CFP®

WHO Are the Best Predictors of Stock Market Performance?

Every day CNBC airs dozens of “financial professionals” making market forecasts. Similarly, every financial publication has multiple pieces regarding the future of the stock market. With so much information, how is it possible to determine who is worth listening to and what information to incorporate into your investment strategy?

Dropping Names

Without dropping any names, I’d suggest that the more confident a market pundit is about his or her prediction, the more you should question their advice.

People who make strong, unwavering forecasts are interesting to watch and appear as intelligent, appealing leaders whose advice is worth following. Meanwhile, people who frequently say phrases such as “it depends,” “maybe,” or even “I don’t know” don’t seem to be adding much value and don’t appear to be any more knowledgeable than the average investor. Yet, I’d suggest you tune out the stanch forecaster pounding his fist on the table as he speaks and rather listen closely to the individual who is less willing to make firm predictions.

Stock market performance

Stock market performance is clearly not a result of any singular factor such as whether or not companies will generate more profits than expected. If this was the case, making market predictions would be easy – one could simply guess the answer to be yes or no and have a 50% chance of being correct. Rather, hitting profit targets is only point A on a long list of factors impacting stock market performance.

Point B may be whether or not the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates during their next meeting. Again, our market forecaster could guess yes or no to this question and have a 50% chance of being correct. However, when considering both factors A and B, now our market forecaster has to be right twice on two issues where there is only a 50% probability of being correct on each. Simple math tells us there is only a 25% chance that this will occur (50% x 50% = 25%).

Point C may be whether the republicans or the democrats win the 2016 election. Again, there is a 50% chance of either possibility. Now there are three factors in play, each with a 50% probability, so the probability that the market pundit will get all three factors correct is 12.5% (50% x 50% x 50% = 12.5%).

Point D may be whether the US dollars strengthens or weakens when compared to other currencies. Again, there is a 50% chance of getting this right, so when we consider all four factors, there is now a 6.25% chance of getting it right (50% x 50% x 50% x 50% = 6.25%).

The equation

There are hundreds of factors that go into this equation. Will Greece have another economic crisis? Will the price of oil go up or down? Will a war breakout with Russia? This is exactly why forecasting market performance is so difficult!

For this reason, the people who make the best forecasters are people who say phrases such as “perhaps,” “however,” and “on the other hand” a lot. Doing so illustrates that the individual has looked at the situation from a lot of different perspectives and realizes that everything may not go according to plan. These types of people also tend to admit when they are wrong more willingly and update their analysis utilizing the latest information available, even if the new information doesn’t reflect what they previously anticipated. Their thought process is likely: “I got point A wrong, so I need to adjust my thinking on point B, which will have an impact on point C, so how does this change my perspective on point D.” We’ll call this a point-A-to-point-B-to-point-C-to-point-D mentality.

By comparison, the forecaster who makes the strong prediction while staring into the camera likely utilizes more of a point-A-to-point-D mentality. They are less likely to admit that there are more factors affecting market performance than can be managed, and less likely to incorporate new information that doesn’t coincide with his previous prediction when making forward-looking forecasts. Their thought process is likely: “I may have gotten point A wrong, but that doesn’t matter. All that matters is point D and I believe I got that right when making my prediction.” This approach is obviously less logic-based than the approach taken by the forecaster who knows there are too many factors to enable an individual to make a confident prediction.

***

idea

***

Assessment

While people who make confident predictions regarding market performance are entertaining to watch and provide advice that is simple to follow (he said buy, so I’ll buy), their advice is not likely to be any more accurate than other market pundits. In fact, if they are unwilling to admit when they get any potential factor concerning market performance wrong, their advice may be more damaging then useful.  By comparison, market forecasters who utilize phrases such as “however,” “it is hard to say,” and “I’m not sure” provide advice that may come off as unhelpful or impossible to follow, but it is these people who provide logic-based nuggets of information that are likely to benefit your investment portfolio.

ABOUT

Lon Jefferies, a Certified Financial Planner™ (CFP), is a fee-only financial advisor and trusted fiduciary at Net Worth Advisory Group in Salt Lake City, Utah. He is dedicated to providing comprehensive financial planning and investment management on a fee-only basis.

Conclusion

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[PHYSICIAN FOCUSED FINANCIAL PLANNING AND RISK MANAGEMENT COMPANION TEXTBOOK SET]

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[Dr. Cappiello PhD MBA] *** [Foreword Dr. Krieger MD MBA]

***

What is Tactical Portfolio Management?

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Re-Thinking Strategic Allocation

[By Dr. David Edward Marcinko MBA]

Dr. David E. Marcinko MBAMany successful physician investors, retirement account managers or endowment fund administrators will establish a “strategic” allocation policy that is intended to guide long-term (greater than one-year) investment decisions.

Thinking Long Term?

This strategic allocation reflects the endowment’s thinking regarding the existence of perceived fundamental shifts in the market. Most endowments will also establish a target range or band for each asset class. The day-to-day managers then have the flexibility to make tactical decisions for a given class so long as they stay within the target range.

Terms

The term “tactical” when used in the context of investment strategy refers to the investor or manager’s ability to take advantage of short-term (under one year) market anomalies such as pricing discrepancies between different sectors or across different styles.

Assessment

Historically, tactical decisions with respect to asset allocation were derided as “market timing.” However, market timing implies moving outside of the target ranges whereas tactical decision making simply addresses the opportunistic deployment of funds within the asset class target range.

So, what do you think?

Online MD investor

Conclusion

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Capital Market Expectations, Asset Allocation and Safe Portfolio Withdrawal Rates

By Staff Reporters

From: Munich Personal RePEc Archive [MPRA]

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Economist Wade Donald Pfau wrote an article called, “Capital Market Expectations, Asset Allocation, and Safe Withdrawal more than a decade ago. Today, is is still a vital read.

Abstract

Most retirement withdrawal rate studies are either based on historical data or use a particular assumption about portfolio returns unique to the study in question.

But, financial advisors and planners may have their own capital market expectations for future returns from stocks, bonds, and other assets they deem suitable for their clients’ portfolios. These uniquely personal expectations may or may not bear resemblance to those used for making retirement withdrawal rate guidelines. The objective here is to provide a general framework for thinking about how to estimate sustainable withdrawal rates and appropriate asset allocations for clients based on one’s capital market expectations, as well as other inputs about the client including the planning horizon, tolerance for exhausting wealth, and personal concerns about holding riskier assets.

The study also tests the sensitivity of various assumptions for the recommended withdrawal rates and asset allocations, and finds that these assumptions are very important. Another common feature of existing studies is to focus on an optimal asset allocation, which is expected either to minimize the probability of failure for a given withdrawal rate, or to maximize the withdrawal rate for a given probability of failure. Retirement withdrawal rate studies are known in this regard for lending support to stock allocations in excess of 50 percent.

Assessment

This study shows that usually there are a wide range of asset allocations which can be expected to perform nearly as well as the optimal allocation, and that lower stock allocations are indeed justifiable in many cases.

Link: MPRA_paper_32973

About MPRA: http://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/information.html

NOTE: Wade Donald Pfau is an Associate Professor of Economics at the National Graduate Institute for Policy Studies (GRIPS) in Tokyo, Japan. His PhD in economics was from Princeton University.

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Value v. Growth Fund Managers

Understanding Investment Styles

By Dr. David Edward Marcinko; MBA, CMPbiz-book1

A mutual or hedge fund manager’s investment style is defined by the means or strategies used to accomplish the fund’s stated objective. Most managers have a strategy they believe to be the key to maximizing risk-adjusted investment returns. For example, two equity managers may seek growth of capital or capital appreciation over the long term. The strategies they use to achieve that goal can be vastly different, however, as evidenced by their choice of securities.

Style Characteristics

Astute physician-investors are aware that there are four, main manager style characteristics: value vs. growth, top-down vs. bottom-up—which can be refined further by additional approaches. Certain statistics and information reveal a manager’s style. An investor may prefer one style or one combination over another

Approaches Vary

Style approaches can be used in tactical asset allocation. Research has shown that one style tends to outperform the other during certain periods. If investors believe they can identify when one style will outperform the other, they could overweight the favored approach. More and more fund complexes are now offering funds in each style; especially for large healthcare entities and other institutions.

Value vs. Growth

Manager autonomy and style is an important consideration.

  1. Value managers focus on a company’s assets or net worth and attempt to place a value on such assets: if their valuation is greater than the market’s valuation, the security is a candidate for ownership. Benjamin Graham, the father of value investing, believed this approach to selecting securities would eventually be recognized by the market, rewarding patient, long-term investors. In today’s service economy, value managers also attempt to value the intangible assets of a company, such as franchise value or human capital. Value managers tend to be contrarians—they buy out-of-favor stocks or stocks not widely followed or recommended by analysts. Value managers also look at the breakup value of a company (what the individual parts could be sold for). They buy cheap stocks: stocks with low P/E ratios or low price-to-book value relative to the market, and stocks of established companies that pay dividends.
  2. Growth managers look at corporate earnings and focus on improving or accelerating earnings. They look at the trend of an industry or market sector (for example, environmental technology) to see if there is future sales-growth potential. They may lean toward companies that are dominant in the industry or have a product or service that will dramatically improve their market share. Growth managers typically own stocks with higher P/E ratios than the market average; these stocks may not be out of favor, but they may have been overlooked by market analysts. Growth stocks usually are not high-income-paying stocks.

Assessment

Prior to the recent financial meltdown, growth and momentum investing was the norm. Now it is value investing. What about the future for the physician-investor?

Conclusion

And so, your thoughts and comments on this Medical Executive-Post are appreciated.

Speaker: If you need a moderator or speaker for an upcoming event, Dr. David E. Marcinko; MBA – Publisher-in-Chief of the Medical Executive-Post – is available for seminar or speaking engagements. Contact: MarcinkoAdvisors@msn.com 

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ENCORE: The Danger of Groupthink with Endowment Fund Portfolio Managers

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A Historical Look-Back to the Future?

wayne-firebaugh

By Wayne Firebaugh CPA CFP® CMP™

www.CertifiedMedicalPlanner.org

It is not unusual for endowment fund managers to compare their endowment allocations to those of peer institutions and that as a result, endowment allocations are often similar to the “average” as reported by one or more survey/consulting firms.

One endowment fund manager expanded this thought by presciently noting that expecting materially different performance with substantially the same allocation is unreasonable [personal communication]. It is anecdotally interesting to wonder whether the seminal study “proving” the importance of asset allocation could have even had a substantially different conclusion. It seems likely that the pensions surveyed in the study had very similar allocations given the human tendency to measure one’s self against peers and to use peers for guidance.

Peer Comparison

Although peer comparisons can be useful in evaluating your institution’s own processes, groupthink can be highly contagious and dangerous.

For example, in the first quarter of 2000, net flows into equity mutual funds were $140.4 billion as compared to net inflows of $187.7 billion for all of 1999. February’s equity fund inflows were a staggering $55.6 billion, the record for single month investments. For all of 1999, total net mutual fund investments were $169.8 billion[1] meaning that investors “rebalanced” out of asset classes such as bonds just in time for the market’s March 24, 2000 peak (as measured by the S&P 500).

Of course, investors are not immune to poor decision making in upward trending markets. In 2001, investors withdrew a then-record amount of $30 billion[2] in September, presumably in response to the September 11th terrorist attacks. These investors managed to skillfully “rebalance” their ways out of markets that declined approximately 11.5% during the first several trading sessions after the market reopened, only to reach September 10th levels again after only 19 trading days. In 2002, investors revealed their relentless pursuit of self-destruction when they withdrew a net $27.7 billion from equity funds[3] just before the S&P 500’s 29.9% 2003 growth.

The Travails

Although it is easy to dismiss the travails of mutual fund investors as representing only the performance of amateurs, it is important to remember that institutions are not automatically immune by virtue of being managed by investment professionals.

For example, in the 1960s and early 1970s, common wisdom stipulated that portfolios include the Nifty Fifty stocks that were viewed to be complete companies.  These stocks were considered “one-decision” stocks for which the only decision was how much to buy. Even institutions got caught up in purchasing such current corporate stalwarts as Joe Schlitz Brewing, Simplicity Patterns, and Louisiana Home & Exploration.

Collective market groupthink pushed these stocks to such prices that Price Earnings ratios routinely exceeded 50. Subsequent disappointing performance of this strategy only revealed that common wisdom is often neither common nor wisdom.

Senate house conference committee meets wall street reform

[Wall Street Reform?]

More Current Examples

More recently, the New York Times reported on June 21, 2007, that Bear Stearns had managed to forestall the demise of the Bear Stearns High Grade Structured Credit Strategies and the related Enhanced Leveraged Fund.

The two funds held mortgage-backed debt securities of almost $2 billion many of which were in the sub-prime market.  To compound the problem, the funds borrowed much of the money used to purchase these securities.

The firms who had provided the loans to make these purchases represent some of the smartest names on Wall Street, including  JP Morgan, Goldman Sachs, Bank of America, Merrill Lynch, and Deutsche Bank.[4]

Assessment

Despite its efforts Bear Stearns had to inform investors less than a week later on June 27th that these two funds had collapsed.

Conclusion

Is this same Groupthink mentality happening on Wall Street, today? Your thoughts and comments on this ME-P are appreciated. Feel free to review our top-left column, and top-right sidebar materials, links, URLs and related websites, too. Then, subscribe to the ME-P. It is fast, free and secure.

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[1]   2001 Fact Book, Investment Company Institute.

[2]   Id.

[3]   2003 Fact Book, Investment Company Institute.

[4]    Bajaj, Vikas and Creswell, Julie. “Bear Stearns Staves off Collapse of 2 Hedge Funds.”
New York Times, June 21, 2007.

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ENCORE: How to Interview an Investment Portfolio Manager?

Selection Criteria Critical for Physicians

By Dr. David Edward Marcinko; MBA, CMP™

[Publisher-in-Chief and former certified financial plannerdem2]

Recently in the Atlanta area, two high-profile financial advisors and portfolio investment managers have been charged with client embezzlement, malfeasance, and more!

The first was Kirk Wright, a Harvard-educated fund manager who was convicted last week in a fraud scheme that bilked investors out of tens of millions of dollars.  He later hanged himself, according to the Fulton County Georgia medical examiner’s office.  A federal jury convicted Wright last week on all 47 counts of mail fraud, securities fraud and money laundering stemming from a scam run through his firm, International Management Associates. High-profile clients included sports-stars, celebrities and several well-known local physicians.

The second, Frederick J. Barton, received a Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) civil action letter on June 3rd, 2008. Barton, formerly a registered representative of a national, registered broker-dealer and two entities he controlled: TwinSpan Capital Management, LLC (TwinSpan), an investment adviser formerly registered with the Commission, and Barton Asset Management, LLC (Barton Asset Management). The Commission alleges that, between 1999 and 2007, Barton, acting individually or through TwinSpan or Barton Asset Management, engaged in three separate securities frauds-including one involving a patient suffering from Alzheimer’s disease-and through his misconduct obtained over $3 million in ill-gotten gains. The Commission further alleges that he then spent his ill-gotten gains, among other things, to send his children to an exclusive private school, fund his own investment portfolio, and service his credit card debts. 

Manager Selection

So, how can the medical professional reduce the potential for similar behavior from his/her portfolio manager?

The first way is to skip the middle-man and “do-it-yourself.” But, doctors are sometimes hard-pressed to following this directive because of time constraints, knowledge paucity, fear/greed and/or disinterest; among other reasons.

The second way, of course, is to outsource the task by hiring a financial advisor. But, how do you find a financial advisor (easy), and more importantly, how do you discern a good fit (personally and professionally)? Still, there is no guarantee of honesty or capability.

But, your odds can be improved with insider knowledge of the financial services industry; a common-theme of the ME-P. And so, the following checklist may be a good place to start the selection, or triage process.  

SAMPLE: Engagement Letter

Mr. Joseph H. Sample

Vice President

Medical Capital Management of Nevada, LLC

RE: Letter to Request Pre-Interview Information from Portfolio Manager

Dear [Mr. Name]:

Thank you for agreeing to meet with us on [date, time] in our office. We are in the process of interviewing several portfolio investment managers.

So that we may obtain consistent information in our evaluation, we would appreciate the coverage of specific areas during your presentation. We are particularly interested in information regarding your approach to investment management in the following areas:

Investment philosophy and approach

• Describe your management style and any changes you have made over the past decade.

• Describe your investment decision-making process.

• Do you make the decisions or do you rely on others, and if so, who?

• Describe your sources of research.

• What contact, if any, do you have with the management of companies in which you invest?

• Briefly describe the sell disciplines employed by you and your firm.

• Describe whether/how you use top-down or bottom-up approaches to investment selection.

• Are you value or growth orientated; hedged or not; domestic or international?

Track record

• Please supply performance data by 5, 10 and 15-year intervals.

• Please supply performance records compared to benchmarks you feel appropriate.

• If balanced management, please provide performance data by asset class.

• Provide MPT or APT statistics such as beta, alpha, standard deviations, etc.

• What are your cash holdings; fully invested or selectively invested at various times?

• Turnover history and number of securities, industries and sectors; are guidelines in place?

• Typical portfolio percentage of largest ten positions.

Firm/advisor background

Please provide us with information regarding your background, including general information about the organization. In particular, please cover:

• The stability of ownership, managers, analysts or others directly involved in management.

• Who makes the investment decisions and how the firm dictates policy to managers?

• A description of expenses, including management fees, commissions, and other expenses.

• A detailed description of the growth of money under management over the past ten years.

• Please discuss the flexibility in design and management of a client’s portfolio by managers.

• If your firm is multidisciplined, what are your areas of expertise?

• Who is the custodian of securities? Does the firm have insurance?

Manager background

Please provide the resume(s) of the manager(s) as well as information about the manager’s style and consistency. Additional items of interest include:

• The manager’s record with other firms, if employed less than ten years.

• How the manager does research, including use of analysts and outside research?

• Regarding the decision process, what steps does the manager actually take?

• Manager’s ownership status in the firm?

• History of asset growth under the specific manager.

• Examples of past successes and failures on investment decisions.

Statistics

Please provide the following statistical information:

• Price/earnings ratios compared to market

• Price/book ratios compared to market

• Average earnings growth data

• Average market cap of companies in portfolio

• Average dividend yield information

• Average maturity and/or duration of fixed-income portfolios (and how this is managed)

• Average credit rating of fixed-income portfolios

• Where short-term funds are invested

Communication

• How often do you provide portfolio and performance reports?

• How do you compare performance to the market? What benchmarks do you use?

• Who will meet with us (and how often)?

• Who is the primary and secondary contact?

• Does the firm provide investment newsletters or promotional literature, with sample?

• Is the portfolio manager(s) available to meet or discuss issues with the client or advisor?

Compliance

• Are you a fiduciary? Will you sign-off as same?

• Are you a stoke-broker or registered representative?

• What securities licenses do you hold?

• Are you independent?

• Who is your broker-dealer?

• Who is your custodian and clearinghouse?

• Are you a RIA or RIA representative?

• May we please see you ADV Parts I, II, III

• May we review a sample investment policy statement?

• May we see your CRD report?

• Must we sign an arbitration clause?

• What educational degrees have earned?

• What financial/securities designation do you hold?

• What peer-reviewed or non-peered reviewed material have you published, and where? 

• What medical specificity do you possess?

• Do you hold the AIF® and/or AIFA® designations, and adhere to its code-of-ethics?

• Are you a [CMP] Certified Medical Planner™?

• Are you a [CFP] Certified Financial Planner™ with health economics knowledge?

• How do/can you demonstrate you specific knowledge on the heath care space?

Thank you.

Dr. Michael B. Sample; MD/DO

Managing Partner – Medical Associates of Nevada, PC  

Assessment

Some financial advisors, insurance agents, portfolio and wealth managers speak of “prospecting”, “hunting” or “screening” clients. In fact, potential doctor-clients are often, not-so-charmingly called, “prospects”.

Don’t you think it’s about time that the “tables-are-turned” by informed medical professionals, as the “hunted-becomes-the-hunter”, by the informed physician? Triage well, and always remember; caveat emptor and vendor emptor!

What other criteria should be included in this engagement letter, or personal interview itself? What has been your experience with portfolio manager selection? How do you select same, and what has been your success rate? Why don’t you do-it-yourself? Please comment and opine.

Conclusion

Your thoughts and comments on this ME-P are appreciated. Feel free to review our top-left column, and top-right sidebar materials, links, URLs and related websites, too. Then, subscribe to the ME-P. It is fast, free and secure.

Speaker: If you need a moderator or speaker for an upcoming event, Dr. David E. Marcinko; MBA – Publisher-in-Chief of the Medical Executive-Post – is available for seminar or speaking engagements. Contact: MarcinkoAdvisors@msn.com

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Thinking Beyond Portfolio Asset Allocation

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Don’t Forget Your Spending Policy – Doctors

By Dr. David Edward Marcinko MBA CMP™

www.CertifiedMedicalPlanner.com

[Publisher-in-Chief]

If you are economically literate – or read the ME-P regularly – you may be tired of hearing the familiar saw, “the single most important determinant of investment results over time is asset allocation.”

But, as most of us realize, this glosses over critical obstacles to building personal wealth—taxes, inflation, and spending policy. A doctor’s spending policy itself is as critical as asset allocation in preserving wealth, as well as for all investors who understand the trade-offs: there are both allocation and spending strategies that stand to preserve wealth and insulate against excessive equity risk at the same time.

Income versus Security

In proving his point a decade ago, the author—Roger Hertog in “Income Versus Security”— traced the growth of a $1 million portfolio during the period of 1960–1994. He showed that while an all-stock portfolio would have experienced a compound growth rate of 10.1%, an all-bond portfolio of 7.4%, and an all T-bill portfolio of 6.1%, these growth rates dropped to 8%, 5%, and 3.7%, respectively, after taxes and conservative transaction costs. When further reduced by inflation, they dropped to 3.1%, 0.2%, and -1%, respectively. Stocks still nearly tripled in real value after taxes.

Next, Hertog factored in spending. He showed that the greater the equity exposure, the more likely investors will preserve or increase their levels of real spending and wealth. Also, he demonstrated how a spending policy of a fixed percentage of the portfolio; or of spending all the income is ill-suited to estate building. He arrived at an optimum allocation of 60% stocks and 40% bonds with a policy of spending all stock dividends but only spending interest to the extent it exceeds inflation. This latter spending policy adjusts for the fact that in – unlike today but perhaps again in the near future – an inflationary environment a portion of bond interest is a return of principal. This type of asset allocation and spending policy resulted in the greatest amount of growth over the years and gained on inflation. Hertog contends that the 60/40 allocation provides an appealing combination of growth and protection.

IOW: It gives investors a milder ride.

Assessment

Over the 35-year period studied, a 60/40 mix returned almost as much as the all-stock portfolio both before taxes and after taxes and achieved some 75% of its real after-tax growth. Also, the portfolio’s worst year was only half as bad as the all-stock portfolio. Hertog believed that balancing with bonds softened the downside. But – what about the “flash-crash” of 2008-09?

Note: “Income Versus Security: Do You Have To Choose?” Roger Hertog, Trust & Estates, March 1997, pp. 44–62, Intertec Publishing Corporation.

Conclusion

And so, your thoughts and comments on this ME-P are appreciated. Is the bull market in bonds over? Do you believe Hertog? Feel free to review our top-left column, and top-right sidebar materials, links, URLs and related websites, too. Then, subscribe to the ME-P. It is fast, free and secure.

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How [DOCTORS] Construct Investment Portfolios That Protect Them

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ASK AN ADVISOR

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Vitaliy N. Katsenelson, CFA - YouTube

By Vitaliy N. Katsenelson, CFA

***

Question: How do you construct investment portfolios and determine position sizes (weights) of individual stocks?

I wanted to discuss this topic for a long time, so here is a very in-depth answer.
CITE: https://www.r2library.com/Resource/Title/082610254

Answer
For a while in the value investing community the number of positions you held was akin to bragging on your manhood– the fewer positions you owned the more macho an investor you were. I remember meeting two investors at a value conference. At the time they had both had “walk on water” streaks of returns. One had a seven-stock portfolio, the other held three stocks. Sadly, the financial crisis humbled both – the three-stock guy suffered irreparable losses and went out of business (losing most of his clients’ money). The other, after living through a few incredibly difficult years and an investor exodus, is running a more diversified portfolio today.

Under-diversification: Is dangerous, because a few mistakes or a visit from Bad Luck may prove to be fatal to the portfolio.

On the other extreme, you have a mutual fund industry where it is common to see portfolios with hundreds of stocks (I am generalizing). There are many reasons for that. Mutual funds have an army of analysts who need to be kept busy; their voices need to be heard; and thus their stock picks need to find their way into the portfolio (there are a lot of internal politics in this portfolio). These portfolios are run against benchmarks; thus their construction starts to resemble Noah’s Ark, bringing on board a few animals (stocks) from each industry. Also, the size of the fund may limit its ability to buy large positions in small companies.

There are several problems with this approach. First, and this is the important one, it breeds indifference: If a 0.5% position doubles or gets halved, it will have little impact on the portfolio. The second problem is that it is difficult to maintain research on all these positions. Yes, a mutual fund will have an army of analysts following each industry, but the portfolio manager is the one making the final buy and sell decisions. Third, the 75th idea is probably not as good as the 30th, especially in an overvalued market where good ideas are scarce.

Then you have index funds. On the surface they are over-diversified, but they don’t suffer from the over-diversification headaches of managed funds. In fact, index funds are both over-diversified and under-diversified. Let’s take the S&P 500 – the most popular of the bunch. It owns the 500 largest companies in the US. You’d think it was a diversified portfolio, right? Well, kind of. The top eight companies account for more than 25% of the index. Also, the construction of the index favors stocks that are usually more expensive or that have recently appreciated (it is market-cap-weighted); thus you are “diversified” across a lot of overvalued stocks.

If you own hundreds of securities that are exposed to the same idiosyncratic risk, then are you really diversified?

Our portfolio construction process is built from a first-principles perspective. If a Martian visited Earth and decided to try his hand at value investing, knowing nothing about common (usually academic) conventions, how would he construct a portfolio?

We want to have a portfolio where we own not too many stocks, so that every decision we make matters – we have both skin and soul in the game in each decision. But we don’t want to own so few that a small number of stocks slipping on a banana will send us into financial ruin.

In our portfolio construction, we are trying to maximize both our IQ and our EQ (emotional quotient). Too few stocks will decapitate our EQ – we won’t be able to sleep well at night, as the relatively large impact of a low-probability risk could have a devastating impact on the portfolio. I wrote about the importance of good sleep before (link here). It’s something we take seriously at IMA.

Holding too many stocks will result in both a low EQ and low IQ. It is very difficult to follow and understand the drivers of the business of hundreds of stocks, therefore a low IQ about individual positions will eventually lead to lower portfolio EQ. When things turn bad, a constant in investing, you won’t intimately know your portfolio – you’ll be surrounded by a lot of (tiny-position) strangers.

Portfolio construction is a very intimate process. It is unique to one’s EQ and IQ. Our typical portfolios have 20–30 stocks. Our “focused” portfolios have 12–15 stocks (they are designed for clients where we represent only a small part of their total wealth). There is nothing magical about these numbers – they are just the Goldilocks levels for us, for our team and our clients. They allow room for bad luck, but at the same time every decision we make matters.

Now let’s discuss position sizing. We determine position sizing through a well-defined quantitative process. The goals of this process are to achieve the following: Shift the portfolio towards higher-quality companies with higher returns. Take emotion out of the portfolio construction process. And finally, insure healthy diversification.

Our research process is very qualitative: We read annual reports, talk to competitors and ex-employees, build financial models, and debate stocks among ourselves and our research network. In our valuation analysis we try to kill the business – come up with worst-case fair value (where a company slips on multiple bananas) and reasonable fair value. We also assign a quality rating to each company in the portfolio. Quality is absolute for us – we don’t allow low-quality companies in, no matter how attractive the valuation is (though that doesn’t mean we don’t occasionally misjudge a company’s quality).

The same company, at different stock prices, will merit a higher or lower position size. In other words, if company A is worth (fair value) $100, at $60 it will be a 3% position and at $40 it will be a 5% position. Company B, of a lower quality than A but also worth $100, will be a 2% position at $60 and a 4% position at $40 (I just made up these numbers for illustration purposes). In other words, if there are two companies that have similar expected returns, but one is of higher quality than the other, our system will automatically allocate a larger percentage of the portfolio to the higher-quality company. If you repeat this exercise on a large number of stocks, you cannot but help to shift your portfolio to higher-quality, higher-return stocks. It’s a system of meritocracy where we marry quality and return.

Let’s talk about diversification. We don’t go out of our way to diversify the portfolio. At least, not in a traditional sense. We are not going to allocate 7% to mining stocks because that is the allocation in the index or they are negatively correlated to soft drink companies. (We don’t own either and are not sure if the above statement is even true, but you get the point.) We try to assemble a portfolio of high-quality companies that are attractively priced, whose businesses march to different drummers and are not impacted by the same risks.  Just as bank robbers rob banks because that is where the money is, value investors gravitate towards sectors where the value is. To keep our excitement (our emotions) in check, and to make sure we are not overexposed to a single industry, we set hard limits of industry exposure. These limits range from 10%–20%. We also set limits of country exposure, ranging from 7%–30% (ex-US).

CONCLUSION

In portfolio construction, our goal is not to limit the volatility of the portfolio but to reduce true risk – the permanent loss of capital. We are constantly thinking about the types of risks we are taking. Do we have too much exposure to a weaker or stronger dollar? To higher or lower interest rates? Do we have too much exposure to federal government spending? I know, risk is a four-letter word that has lost its meaning. But not to us. Low interest rates may have time-shifted risk into the future, but they haven’t cured it.

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Risk Aversion and Investment Alternatives

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Understanding Financial Tolerance in the New Era

[By Dr. David E. Marcinko MBA and Staff Reporters]

Some physicians and financial planners prefer to use a specific approach in determining these difficult-to-determine areas, in lieu of one of several psychological tests that are currently available.

Examples of this specific approach follow.

Investment Temperament

Which statement best describes your investment temperament? Please indicate by ranking the items below from 1 to 4, with 1 being the most descriptive and 4 being the least descriptive. Also, please indicate the extent of your risk aversion by indicating what percentage of your assets you would feel comfortable investing in each category (for example, 50% in the first category, 25% in the second, etc.).

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Numerical   Percentage  
ranking   allocation  
* I prefer only the safest of investments.
* I am interested only in “blue-chip” investments.
* An occasional risk is worth the effort for above-average potential reward.
* I’m willing to put everything on the line if the potential reward is large enough.

Listed below are various forms of investments. Please indicate your familiarity with each.

  Familiarity
Description High   Low
Certificates of deposit 5 4 3 2 1
Treasury bills 5 4 3 2 1
Other short-term fixed income 5 4 3 2 1
Stocks 5 4 3 2 1
U.S. government bonds 5 4 3 2 1
Corporate bonds 5 4 3 2 1
Municipal bonds 5 4 3 2 1
Mutual funds 5 4 3 2 1
Real estate—direct ownership 5 4 3 2 1
Real estate—limited partnerships 5 4 3 2 1
Oil and gas 5 4 3 2 1
Collectibles 5 4 3 2 1
Precious metals 5 4 3 2 1
Insurance products 5 4 3 2 1

Assessment

Any other thoughts on behavioral finance topics, like this?

Conclusion

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On New Issues and Securities Stabilization

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A Primer for Physician Investors and Medical Professionals

By: Dr. David Edward Marcinko; MBA, CMP™

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[PART 3 OF 8]

NEU Dr. Marcinko

NOTE: This is an eight part ME-P series based on a weekend lecture I gave more than a decade ago to an interested group of graduate, business and medical school students. The material is a bit dated and some facts and specifics may have changed since then. But, the overall thought-leadership information of the essay remains interesting and informative. We trust you will enjoy it.

Introduction

Some securities issues move very well, like traditional blue chips stocks (ie., Wallgreen). Some are dogs, like smaller dot.com companies (iixl.com). Then, there are issues that are former darling, but are now ice cold; like PPMCs (i.e., Phycor) and internet stocks (i.e., Dr. Koop).  How far can an underwriting manager go in nudging along an issue that’s not selling well? SEC rules do permit a certain amount of help by the manager, even if this takes on the appearance of price-fixing. This help is called stabilizing the issue.

Simply put, if shortly after a new offering begins, supply exceeds demand, there will be downward pressure on the price. But, the law requires that all purchasers of the new issue pay the official offering price on the prospectus. If public holders of the stock become willing to bail out and accept a low selling price, the investor looking to buy will find he is able to buy stock of the issuer cheaper in the open market than buying it new from the syndicate members.

To prevent such a decline in the price of a security during a public offering, SEC rules permit the manager to offer to buy shares in \ the open market at a bid price at, or just below, the official offering price of the new issue. This is referred to as stabilizing and his bid price is called the stabilizing bid. There is always the risk, in a firm commitment underwriting, that the underwriters will have difficulty selling the new issue. What they can’t sell, they’re “stuck” with. That’s where the term “sticky issue” comes from.

As a physician executive, or potential investor in a new issue, be aware that the best way to get an issue to sell is to increase the compensation to the sales force (i.e., stock broker or Registered Rep).

Another choice is through stabilization. Stabilizing is a permitted form of market manipulation which tends to protect underwriters against loss. It allows the underwriting syndicate (usually through the efforts of the syndicate manager) to stabilize (peg or fix) the secondary market trading price in a new issue at the published public offering price. It works something like this.

When a new issue is selling slowly, some of the investors who initially purchased, may be dissatisfied with the performance of the stock (if it is selling slowly and the underwriters have plenty to sell at the public offering price, this is anything but a hot issue and the security price will not have risen).

This dissatisfaction with performance leads to these investors desiring to sell the securities they have just purchased. If the underwriters are unable to sell at the public offering price, certainly an individual investor will have to take less when bailing out. As market makers begin to trade the stock in the secondary market, they would only be able to compete with the underwriters by offering the stock at a lower price than the public offering  price. This would make it difficult (if not impossible) for the underwriters to distribute the remaining new shares.

In order to prevent this from happening, the managing underwriter (who is usually the one to assume the role of stabilizing underwriter), agrees to purchase back any of the new shares at or just slightly below the public offering price. That is a higher price than any market maker could, in all practicality, bid for the shares. When the shares are repurchased by the stabilizing underwriter, it is as if the initial trade were annulled and never took place so that these new shares are now placed back into the distribution and are sold as new shares at the public offering price. SEC rules do, however, require disclosure of this practice.

Therefore, no syndicate manager may engage in stabilizing unless the following phrase appears in bold print on the inside front cover page of the prospectus:

IN CONNECTION WITH THIS OFFERING, THE UNDERWRITERS MAY OVER ALLOT OR EFFECT TRANSACTIONS WHICH STABILIZE OR MAINTAIN THE MARKET PRICE OF (XYZ COMPANY) AT A LEVEL ABOVE THAT WHICH MIGHT OTHERWISE PREVAIL IN THE OPEN MARKET. SUCH TRANSACTIONS MAY BE EFFECTED ON (NYSE) STABILIZING, IF COMMENCED, MAY BE DISCONTINUED AT ANY TIME.

Of course, it would be manipulation and, therefore, a violation of law, if this “price-pegging” activity continued after the entire new issue was sold out. This activity costs the syndicate manager money which is recouped by levying a syndicate penalty bid against those members of the syndicate whose clients turn shares in on a stabilizing bid.

One way to avoid stabilization is to over allot  to each of the syndicate members. This is the same concept as “over booking” that’s done by the airlines. Most airlines typically sell 5% to 10% more seats than the airplane has knowing that there will be last minute cancellations and no shows. This tends to ensure that the plan will fly full. In the same manner, managing under-writers frequently over allot an additional 10% to each of their syndicate members so that last minute cancellations should still leave the syndicate with sell orders for 100% of the issue. If there are no “drop outs”, one of two things may happen.

  1. The issuer will issue the additional shares (which results in it raising more money).
  2. The issuer will not issue the additional shares and the syndicate will have to go short. Any losses suffered by the syndicate through taking of this short position are shared proportionately by the syndicate members.

Now, what if market conditions and the fervor surrounding a new issue like e-commerce company Ariba,  in 1999, remain so that the issue doesn’t cool down during the cooling off period? Such hot issues are a mixed blessing to be sure.

On the one hand, the issue is a sure sell-out. On the other hand, just how many healthcare investors are going to be told by brokers that additional shares can not be obtained.

Furthermore, the SEC and the NASD/FINRA are vigorous [or should be] in their scrutiny of  proper distribution channels for hot issues. Just what is a “proper” distribution?  It can be summed up in one sentence. Member firms have an obligation to make a “bona fide” public distribution of all the shares at the public offering price. The key to this rule lies within the definition of bona fide public distribution.

While the underwriting procedures for corporate bonds are almost identical to corporate stock, there are significant differences in the underwriting of municipal securities. Municipal securities are exempt from the registration filing requirements or the Securities Act of 1933. A state or local government, in the issuance of municipal securities, is not required to register the offering with the SEC, so there is no filing of a registration statement and there is no prospectus which would otherwise have to be given to investors.

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Municipal Underwriting

There are two main methods of financing when it comes to municipal securities. One method is known as negotiated. In the case of a negotiated sale, the municipality looking to borrow money would approach an investment bank and negotiate the terms of the offering directly with the firm. This is really not very different from the above equity discussions.

The other type of municipal underwriting is known as competitive bidding. Under the terms of competitive bidding, an issuer announces that it wishes to borrow money and is looking for syndicates to submit competitive bids. The issue will then be sold to the syndicate which submits the best bid, resulting in the municipality having the lowest net interest cost (lowest expense to the issuer).

If the issue is to be done by a competitive bid, the municipality will use a Notice of Sale to announce that fact. The notice of sale will generally include most or all of the following information.

  • Date, time, and place. This does not mean when the bonds will be sold to the public, but when the issue will be awarded (sold) to the syndicate issuing the bid.
  • Description of the issue and the manner in which the bid is to be made (sealed bid or oral). Type of bond (general obligation, revenue, etc.)
  • Semi-annual interest payment dates and the denominations in which the bonds will be printed.
  • Amount of good faith deposit required, if any.
  • Name of the law firm providing the legal opinion and where to acquire a bid form.
  • The basis upon which the bid will  e awarded, generally the lowest net interest cost.

Since municipal securities are not registered with the SEC, the municipality must hire a law firm in order to make sure that they are issuing the securities in compliance with all state, local and federal laws. This is known as the bond attorney, or independent bond counsel. Some functions are included below:

    1. Establishes the exemption from federal income tax by verifying  requirements for the exemption.
    2. Determines proper authority for the bond issuance.
    3. Identifies and monitors proper issuance procedures.
    4. Examines the physical bond  ertificates to make sure that they are proper
    5. Issues the debt and a legal opinion, since municipal bonds are the only securities that require an opinion.
    6. Does not prepare the official statement.

When medical investors purchase new issue municipal securities from syndicate or selling group members, there is no prospectus to be delivered to investors, but there is a document which is provided to purchasers very similar in nature to a prospectus. It is known as an Official Statement. The Official Statement contains all of the information an investor needs to make a prudent decision regarding a proposed municipal bond purchase.

The formation of a municipal underwriting syndicate is very similar to that for a corporate  issue. When there is a negotiated underwriting, an Agreement Among Underwriters (AAU) is used. When the issue is competitive bid, the agreement is known as a Syndicate Letter. In the syndicate letter, the managing underwriter details all of the underwriting agreements among members of the syndicate. Eastern (undivided) and Western (divided) accounts are also used, but there are  several different types of orders in a municipal underwriting. The traditional types of orders, in priority order, are:

Pre-Sale Order: Made before the syndicate actually offers the bonds. They have first priority over any other order turned in.

Syndicate (group net) Order: Made once the offering is under way at the public offering price. The purchase is credited to each syndicate member in proportion to its allotment. An institutional buyer will frequently purchase” group net”, since many of the firms in the syndicate may consider this buyer to be their client and he wishes to please all of them.

Designated Order: Sales to medical investors (usually healthcare institutions) at the public offering price where the investor designates which member or members of the syndicate are to be given credit.

Member Orders: Purchased  by members of  the syndicate at the take-down price (spread). The syndicate member keeps the full take-down if the bonds are sold to investors, or earns the take-down less the concession if the sale is made to a member of the selling group. Should the offering be over-subscribed, and the demand for the new bonds exceeds the supply, the first orders to be filled are the pre-sale orders. Those are followed by the syndicate (sometimes called group net) orders, the designated orders, and the last orders filled are the member’s.

Finally, be aware that the term bond scale, is a listing of coupon rates, maturity dates, and yield or price at which the syndicate is re-offering the bonds to the public. The scale is usually found in the center of a tombstone ad and on the front cover of the official statement.

One of the reasons why the word “scale” is used is, that like the scale on a piano, it normally goes up. A regular or positive scale is one in which the yield to maturity is lowest on the near term maturities and highest on the long term maturities. This is also known as a positive yield curve, since the longer the maturity, the higher the yield. In times of very tight money, such as in 1980-81, one might find a bond offering with a negative scale.

A negative (sometimes called inverted) scale is just the opposite of a positive one, with, yields on the short term maturities are higher than those on the long term maturities.

Your thoughts and comments on this ME-P are appreciated. Feel free to review our top-left column, and top-right sidebar materials, links, URLs and related websites, too. Then, subscribe to the ME-P. It is fast, free and secure.

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How to Buy Securities On Margin

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How It Works and What Physicians’ Must Watch Out For

 Dr. David Edward Marcinko MBA CMP

“Buying on margin” is borrowing money from your stock-broker to buy a stock and using your investment as collateral. Physician-investors generally use margin to increase their purchasing power so that they can own more stock without fully paying for it. But, margin exposes all investors to the potential for higher losses.

This ME-P discusses the basics of buying on margin, some of the pitfalls inherent in margin buying, whether this financial tool is for you and how you can best use it.

How Does Margin Work?

Let’s say you buy a stock for $50 and the price of the stock rises to $75. If you bought the stock in a cash account and paid for it in full, you’ll earn a 50 percent return on your investment. But, if you bought the stock on margin – paying $25 in cash and borrowing $25 from your broker – you’ll earn a 100 percent return on the money you invested. Of course, you’ll still owe your brokerage $25 plus interest.

The downside to using margin is that if the stock price decreases, substantial losses can mount quickly. For example, let’s say the stock you bought for $50 falls to $25. If you fully paid for the stock, you’ll lose 50% of your money. But if you bought on margin, you’ll lose 100%, and you still must come up with the interest you owe on the loan.

Caution: In volatile markets, investors who put up an initial margin payment for a stock may, from time to time, be required to provide additional cash if the price of the stock falls. Investors have been shocked to learn that a broker has the right to sell the securities that were bought on margin – without any notification, and at a potentially substantial loss to the investor.

Caution: If your broker sells your stock after the price has plummeted, then you’ve lost out on the chance to recoup your losses if the market bounces back.

The Risks

Margin accounts can be very risky and they are not for everyone. Before opening a margin account, be aware that:

  • You can lose more money than you have invested;
  • You may have to deposit additional cash or securities in your account on short notice to cover market losses;
  • You may be forced to sell some or all of your securities when falling stock prices reduce the value of your securities; and
  • Your brokerage firm may sell some or all of your securities without consulting you to pay off the loan it made to you.

You can protect yourself by knowing how a margin account works and what happens if the price of the stock purchased on margin declines.

Tip: Your broker charges you interest for borrowing money; take into account how that will affect the total return on your investments.

Tip: Ask your broker whether it makes sense for you to trade on margin in light of your financial resources, investment objectives, and tolerance for risk.

Read Your Margin Agreement

To open a margin account, you must sign a margin agreement. The agreement may either be part of your account agreement or separate. The margin agreement states that you must abide by the rules of the Federal Reserve Board, the New York Stock Exchange, the National Association of Securities Dealers, Inc., and the firm where you have set up your margin account.

Caution: Carefully review the agreement before signing.

As with most loans, the margin agreement explains the terms and conditions of the margin account. The agreement describes how the interest on the loan is calculated, how you are responsible for repaying the loan, and how the securities you purchase serve as collateral for the loan. Carefully review the agreement to determine what notice, if any, your firm must give you before selling your securities to collect the money you have borrowed.

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margin risk

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Know the Margin Rules

The Federal Reserve Board and many self-regulatory organizations (SROs), such as the NYSE and NASD, have rules that govern margin trading. Brokerage firms can establish their own requirements as long as they are at least as restrictive as the Federal Reserve Board and SRO rules.

Here are some of the key rules you should know:

Before You Trade – Minimum Margin. Before trading on margin, the NYSE and NASD, for example, require you to deposit with your brokerage firm a minimum of $2,000 or 100 percent of the purchase price, whichever is less. This is known as the “minimum margin.” Some firms may require you to deposit more than $2,000.

Amount You Can Borrow – Initial Margin. According to Regulation T of the Federal Reserve Board, you may borrow up to 50 percent of the purchase price of securities that can be purchased on margin. This is known as the “initial margin.” Some firms require you to deposit more than 50 percent of the purchase price.

Tip: Not all securities can be purchased on margin.

Amount You Need After You Trade – Maintenance Margin. After you buy stock on margin, the NYSE and NASD require you to keep a minimum amount of equity in your margin account. The equity in your account is the value of your securities less how much you owe to your brokerage firm. The rules require you to have at least 25 percent of the total market value of the securities in your margin account at all times. The 25 percent is called the “maintenance requirement.” In fact, many brokerage firms have higher maintenance requirements, typically between 30 to 40 percent and sometimes higher, depending on the type of stock purchased.

Example: You purchase $16,000 worth of securities by borrowing $8,000 from your firm and paying $8,000 in cash or securities. If the market value of the securities drops to $12,000, the equity in your account will fall to $4,000 ($12,000 – $8,000 = $4,000). If your firm has a 25 percent maintenance requirement, you must have $3,000 in equity in your account (25 percent of $12,000 = $3,000). In this case, you do have enough equity because the $4,000 in equity in your account is greater than the $3,000 maintenance requirement.

But, if your firm has a maintenance requirement of 40%, you would not have enough equity. The firm would require you to have $4,800 in equity (40% of $12,000 = $4,800). Your $4,000 in equity is less than the firm’s $4,800 maintenance requirement. As a result, the firm may issue you a “margin call,” since the equity in your account has fallen $800 below the firm’s maintenance requirement.

Margin Calls

If your account falls below the firm’s maintenance requirement, your broker generally will make a margin call to ask you to deposit more cash or securities into your account. If you are unable to meet the margin call, your firm will sell your securities to increase the equity in your account up to or above the firm’s maintenance requirement.

Tip: Your broker may not be required to make a margin call or otherwise tell you that your account has fallen below the firm’s maintenance requirement. Your broker may be able to sell your securities at any time without consulting you first. Under most margin agreements, even if your firm offers to give you time to increase the equity in your account, it can sell your securities without waiting for you to meet the margin call.

  • Margin accounts involve a great deal more risk than cash accounts, where you fully pay for the securities you purchase. You may lose more than your initial investment when buying on margin. If you cannot afford to do so, then margin buying is not for you.
  • Read the margin agreement, and ask your broker questions about how a margin account works and whether it’s appropriate for you to trade on margin. Your broker should explain the terms and conditions of the margin agreement.
  • Know how much you will be charged on money you borrow from your broker, and know how these costs affect your overall return.
  • Remember that your brokerage firm can sell your securities without notice to you when you don’t have sufficient equity in your margin account.

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RECAST: An Interview with Fiduciary Bennett Aikin AIF®

On Financial Fiduciary Accountability

[By Dr. David E. Marcinko MBA CMP™]

[By Ann Miller; RN, MHA]

Currently, there is a growing dilemma in the financial sales and services industry. It goes something like this:

  • What is a financial fiduciary?
  • Who is a financial fiduciary?
  • How can I tell if my financial advisor is a fiduciary?

Now, in as much as this controversy affects laymen and physician-investors alike, we went right to the source for up-to-date information regarding this often contentious topic, for an email interview and Q-A session, with Ben Aikin.ben-aikin

About Bennett Aikin AIF® and fi360.com

Bennett [Ben] Aikin is the Communications Coordinator for fi360.com. He oversees all communications for fi360. His responsibilities include messaging, brand management, copyrights and trademarks, and publications. Mr. Aikin received his BA in English from Virginia Tech in 2003 and is currently an MS candidate in Journalism from Ohio University.

Q. Medical Executive Post 

You have been very helpful and gracious to us. So, let’s get right to it, Ben. In the view of many; attorneys, doctors, CPAs and the clergy are fiduciaries; most all others who retain this title seem poseurs; sans documentation otherwise.

A. Mr. Aikin

You are correct. Attorneys, doctors and clergy are the prototype fiduciaries. They have a clear duty to put the best interests of their clients, patients, congregation, etc., above their own. [The duty of a CPA isn’t as clear to me, although I believe you are correct]. Furthermore, this is one of the first topics we address in our AIF training programs, and what we call the difference between a profession and an industry.  The three professions you name have three common characteristics that elevate them from an industry to a profession:

  1. Recognized body of knowledge
  2. Society depends upon practitioners to provide trustworthy advice
  3. Code of conduct that places the clients’ best interests first

Q. Medical Executive Post 

It seems that Certified Financial Planner®, Chartered Financial Analysts, Registered Investment Advisors and their representatives, Registered Representative [stock-brokers] and AIF® holders, etc, are not really financial fiduciaries, either by legal statute or organizational charter. Are we correct, or not? Of course, we are not talking ethics or morality here. That’s for the theologians to discuss.

A. Mr. Aikin

One of the reasons for the “alphabet soup”, as you put it in one of your white papers [books, dictionaries and posts] on financial designations, is that while there is a large body of knowledge, there is no one recognized body of knowledge that one must acquire to enter the financial services industry.  The different designations serve to provide a distinguisher for how much and what parts of that body of knowledge you do possess.  However, being a fiduciary is exclusively a matter of function. 

In other words, regardless of what designations are held, there are five things that will make one a fiduciary in a given relationship:

  1. You are “named” in plan or trust documents; the appointment can be by “name” or by “title,” such as CFO or Head of Human Resources
  2. You are serving as a trustee; often times this applies to directed trustees as well
  3. Your function or role equates to a professional providing comprehensive and continuous investment advice
  4. You have discretion to buy or sell investable assets
  5. You are a corporate officer or director who has authority to appoint other fiduciaries

So, if you are a fiduciary according to one of these definitions, you can be held accountable for a breach in fiduciary duty, regardless of any expertise you do, or do not have. This underscores the critical nature of understanding the fiduciary standard and delegating certain duties to qualified “professionals” who can fulfill the parts of the process that a non-qualified fiduciary cannot.

Q. Medical Executive Post 

How about some of the specific designations mentioned on our site, and elsewhere. I believe that you may be familiar with the well-known financial planner, Ed Morrow, who often opines that there are more than 98 of these “designations”? In fact, he is the founder of the Registered Financial Consultants [RFC] designation. And, he wrote a Foreword for one of our e-books; back-in-the-day. His son, an attorney, also wrote as a tax expert for us, as well. So, what gives?

A. Mr. Aikin

As for the specific designations you list above, and elsewhere, they each signify something different that may, or may not, lend itself to being a fiduciary: For example:

• CFP®: The act of financial planning does very much imply fiduciary responsibility.  And, the recently updated CFP® rules of conduct does now include a fiduciary mandate:

• 1.4 A certificant shall at all times place the interest of the client ahead of his or her own. When the certificant provides financial planning or material elements of the financial planning process, the certificant owes to the client the duty of care of a fiduciary as defined by CFP Board. [from http://www.cfp.net/Downloads/2008Standards.pdf]

•  CFA: Very dependent on what work the individual is doing.  Their code of ethics does have a provision to place the interests of clients above their own and their Standards of Practice handbook makes clear that when they are working in a fiduciary capacity that they understand and abide by the legally mandated fiduciary standard.

• FA [Financial Advisor]: This is a generic term that you may find being used by a non-fiduciary, such as a broker, or a fiduciary, such as an RIA.

• RIA: Are fiduciaries.  Registered Investment Advisors are registered with the SEC and have obligations under the Investment Advisers Act of 1940 to provide services that meet a fiduciary standard of care.

• RR: Registered Reps, or stock-brokers, are not fiduciaries if they are doing what they are supposed to be doing.  If they give investment advice that crosses the line into “comprehensive and continuous investment advice” (see above), their function would make them a fiduciary and they would be subject to meeting a fiduciary standard in that advice (even though they may not be properly registered to give advice as an RIA).

• AIF designees: Have received training on a process that meets, and in some places exceeds, the fiduciary standard of care.  We do not require an AIF® to always function as a fiduciary. For example, we allow registered reps to gain and use the AIF® designation. In many cases, AIF designees are acting as fiduciaries, and the designation is an indicator that they have the full understanding of what that really means in terms of the level of service they provide.  We do expect our designees to clearly disclose whether they accept fiduciary responsibility for their services or not and advocate such disclosure for all financial service representatives.

Q. Medical Executive Post 

Your website, http://www.fi360.com, seems to suggest, for example, that banks/bankers are fiduciaries. We have found this not to be the case, of course, as they work for the best interests of the bank and stockholders. What definitional understanding are we missing?

A. Mr. Aikin

Banks cannot generally be considered fiduciaries.  Again, it is a matter of function. A bank may be a named trustee, in which case a fiduciary standard would generally apply.  Banks that sell products are doing so according to their governing regulations and are “prudent experts” under ERISA, but not necessarily held to a fiduciary standard in any broader sense.

Q. Medical Executive Post 

And so, how do we rectify the [seemingly intentional] industry obfuscation on this topic. We mean, our readers, subscribers, book and dictionary purchasers, clients and colleagues are all confused on this topic. The recent financial meltdown only stresses the importance of understanding same.

For example, everyone in the industry seems to say they are the “f” word. But, our outreach efforts to contact traditional “financial services” industry pundits, CFP® practitioners and other certification organizations are continually met with resounding silence; or worse yet; they offer an abundance of parsed words and obfuscation but no confirming paperwork, or deep subject-matter knowledge as you have kindly done. We get the impression that some FAs honesty do-not have a clue; while others are intentionally vague.

A. Mr. Aikin

All of the evidence you cite is correct.  But that does not mean it is impossible to find an investment advisor who will manage to a fiduciary standard of care and acknowledge the same. The best way to rectify confusion as it pertains to choosing appropriate investment professionals is to get fiduciary status acknowledged in writing and go over with them all of the necessary steps in a fiduciary process to ensure they are being fulfilled. There also are great resources out there for understanding the fiduciary process and for choosing professionals, such as the Department of Labor, the SEC, FINRA, the AICPA’s Personal Financial Planning division, the Financial Planning Association, and, of course, Fiduciary360.

We realize the confusion this must cause to those coming from the health care arena, where MD/DO clearly defines the individual in question; as do other degrees [optometrist, clinical psychologist, podiatrist, etc] and medical designations [fellow, board certification, etc.]. But, unfortunately, it is the state of the financial services industry as it stands now.

Q. Medical Executive Post 

It is as confusing for the medical community, as it is for the lay community. And, after some research, we believe retail financial services industry participants are also confused. So, what is the bottom line?

A. Mr. Aikin

The bottom line is that lay, physician and all clients have a right to expect and demand a fiduciary standard of care in the managing of investments. And, there are qualified professionals out there who are providing those services.  Again, the best way to ensure you are getting it is to have fiduciary status acknowledged in writing, and go over the necessary steps in a fiduciary process with them to ensure it is being fulfilled.

Q. Medical Executive Post 

The “parole-evidence” rule, of contract law, applies, right? In dealing with medical liability situations, the medics and malpractice attorneys have a rule: “if it wasn’t written down, it didn’t happen.”  

A. Mr. Aikin

An engagement contract accepting fiduciary status should trump a subsequent attempt to claim the fiduciary standard didn’t apply. But, to reiterate an earlier point, if someone acts in one of the five functional fiduciary roles, they are a fiduciary whether they choose to acknowledge it or not.  I have attached a sample acknowledgement of fiduciary status letter with copies of our handbook, which details the fiduciary process we instruct in our programs, and our SAFE, which is basically a checklist that a fiduciary should be able to answer “Yes” to every question to ensure the entire fiduciary process is being covered.

Q. Medical Executive Post 

It is curious that you mention checklists. We have a post arguing that very theme for doctors and hospitals as they pursue their medial error reduction, and quality improvement, endeavors. And, we applaud your integrity, and wish only for clarification on this simple fiduciary query?

A. Mr. Aikin

Simple definition: A fiduciary is someone who is managing the assets of another person and stands in a special relationship of trust, confidence, and/or legal responsibility.

Q. Medical Executive Post 

Who is a financial fiduciary and what, if any, financial designation indicates same?

A. Mr. Aikin

Functional definition: See above for the five items that make you a fiduciary.

Financial designations that unequivocally indicate fiduciary duty: Short answer is none, only function can determine who is a fiduciary. 

Q. Medical Executive Post 

Please repeat that?

A. Mr. Aikin

Financial designations that indicate fiduciary duty: none. It is the function that determines who is a fiduciary.  Now, having said that, the CFP® certification comes close by demanding their certificants who are engaged in financial planning do so to a fiduciary standard. Similarly, other designations may certify the holder’s ability to perform a role that would be held to a fiduciary standard of care.  The point is that you are owed a fiduciary standard of care when you engage a professional to fill that role or they functionally become one.  And, if you engage a professional to fill a non-fiduciary role, they will not be held to a fiduciary standard simply because they have a particular designation.  One of the purposes the designations serve is to inform you what roles the designation holder is capable of fulfilling.

It is also worth keeping in mind that just being a fiduciary doesn’t equate to a full knowledge of the fiduciary standard. The AIF® designation indicates having been fully trained on the standard.

Q. Medical Executive Post 

Yes, your website mentions something about fiduciaries that are not aware of same! How can this be? Since our business model mimics a medical model, isn’t that like saying “the doctor doesn’t know he is doctor?” Very specious, with all due respect!

A. Mr. Aikin

I think it is first important to note that this statement is referring not just to investment professionals.  Part of the audience fi360 serves is investment stewards, the non-professionals who, due to facts and circumstances, still owe a fiduciary duty to another.  Examples of this include investment committee members, trustees to a foundation, small business owners who start 401k plans, etc.  This is a group of non-sophisticated investors who may not be aware of the full array of responsibilities they have. 

However, even on the professional side I believe the statement isn’t as absurd as it sounds.  This is basically a protection from both ignorant and unscrupulous professionals.  Imagine a registered representative who, either through ignorance or design, begins offering comprehensive and continuous investment advice.  Though they may deny or be unaware of the fact, they have opened themselves up to fiduciary liability. 

Q. Medical Executive Post 

Please clarify the use of arbitration clauses in brokerage account contracts for us. Do these disclaim fiduciary responsibility? If so, does the client even know same?

A. Mr. Aikin

By definition, an engagement with a broker is a non-fiduciary relationship.  So, unless other services beyond the scope of a typical brokerage account contract are specified, fiduciary responsibility is inherently not applicable.  Unfortunately, I do imagine there are clients who don’t understand this. Furthermore, AIF® designees are not prohibited from signing such an agreement and there are some important points to understand the reasoning.

First, by definition, if you are entering into such an agreement, you are entering into a non-fiduciary relationship. So, any fiduciary requirement wouldn’t apply in this scenario.

Second, if this same question were applied into a scenario of a fiduciary relationship, such as with an RIA, this would be a method of dispute resolution, not a practice method. So, in the event of dispute, the advisor and investor would be free to agree to the method of resolution of their choosing. In this scenario, however, typically the method would not be discussed until the dispute itself arose.

Finally, it is important to know that AIF/AIFA designees are not required to be a fiduciary. It is symbolic of the individuals training, knowledge and ongoing development in fiduciary processes, but does not mean they will always be acting as a fiduciary.

Q. Medical Executive Post 

Don’t the vast majority of arbitration hearings find in favor of the FA; as the arbitrators are insiders, often paid by the very same industry itself?

A. Mr. Aikin

Actual percentages are reported here: http://www.finra.org/ArbitrationMediation/AboutFINRADR/Statistics/index.htm However, brokerage arbitration agreements are a dispute resolution method for disputes that arise within the context of the securities brokerage industry and are not the only means of resolving differences for all types of financial advisors.  Investment advisers, for example, are subject to respond to disputes in a variety of forums including state and federal courts.  Clients should look at their brokerage or advisory agreement to see what they have agreed to. If you wanted to go into further depth on this question, we would recommend contacting Brian Hamburger, who is a lawyer with experience in this area and an AIFA designee. Bio page: http://www.hamburgerlaw.com/attorneys/BSH.htm.

Q. Medical Executive Post 

What about our related Certified Medical Planner® designation, and online educational program for financial advisors and medical management consultants? Is it a good idea – reasonable – for the sponsor to demand fiduciary accountability of these charter-holders? Cleary, this would not only be a strategic competitive advantage, but advance the CMP™ mission to put medical colleagues first and champion their cause www.CertifiedMedicalPlanner.org above all else. 

A. Mr. Aikin

I think it is a good idea for any plan sponsor to demand fiduciary status be acknowledged from anyone engaged to provide comprehensive and continuous investment advice.  I also think it is a good idea to be proactive in verifying that the fiduciary process is being followed.

Q. Medical Executive Post 

Is there anything else that we should know about this topic?

A. Mr. Aikin

Yes, a further note about fi360’s standards. I wrote generically about the fiduciary standard, because there is one that is defined by multiple sources of regulation, legislation and case law.  The process defined in our handbooks, we call a Fiduciary Standard of Excellence, because it covers that minimum standard and also best practice standards that go above and beyond.  All of our Practices, which comprise that standard, are legally substantiated in our Legal Memoranda handbook, which was written by Fred Reish’s law firm, who is considered a leading ERISA attorney.

Additional resources:

Q. Medical Executive Post 

Thank you so much for your knowledge and willingness to frankly share it with the Medical-Executive-Post.

Assessment

All are invited to continue the conversation with Mr. Aikin, asynchronously online, or thru this contact information:

fi360.com
438 Division Street
Sewickley, PA 15143
412-741-8140 Phone
866-390-5080 Toll-free phone
412-741-8142 Fax

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Your thoughts and comments on this ME-P are appreciated. Feel free to review our top-left column, and top-right sidebar materials, links, URLs and related websites, too. Then, subscribe to the ME-P. It is fast, free and secure.

Link: http://feeds.feedburner.com/HealthcareFinancialsthePostForcxos

Speaker: If you need a moderator or speaker for an upcoming event, Dr. David E. Marcinko; MBA – Publisher-in-Chief of the Medical Executive-Post – is available for seminar or speaking engagements. Contact: MarcinkoAdvisors@msn.com

OUR OTHER PRINT BOOKS AND RELATED INFORMATION SOURCES:

LEXICONS: http://www.springerpub.com/Search/marcinko
PRACTICES: www.BusinessofMedicalPractice.com
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CLINICS: http://www.crcpress.com/product/isbn/9781439879900
ADVISORS: www.CertifiedMedicalPlanner.org
BLOG: www.MedicalExecutivePost.com

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Risk Management, Liability Insurance, and Asset Protection Strategies for Doctors and Advisors: Best Practices from Leading Consultants and Certified Medical Planners™8Comprehensive Financial Planning Strategies for Doctors and Advisors: Best Practices from Leading Consultants and Certified Medical Planners™