LUCAS Paradox

By Staff Reporters

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The Lucas Paradox occurs when capital is not flowing from developed countries to developing countries despite the fact that developing countries have lower levels of capital per worker, and therefore higher returns to capital.

According to Wikipedia, economic theory predicts that capital should flow from rich countries to poor countries, due to the effect of diminishing returns of capital. Poor countries have lower levels of capital per worker – which explains, in part, why they are poor. In poor countries, the scarcity of capital relative to labor should mean that the returns related to the infusion of capital are higher than in developed countries.

In response, savers in rich countries should look at poor countries as profitable places in which to invest. In reality, things do not seem to work that way. Surprisingly little capital flows from rich countries to poor countries. This puzzle was famously discussed in a paper by Robert Lucas PhD in 1990.

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CHINA: Li Keqiang Index

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The Li Keqiang Index was created in 2010 by The Economist and measure’s China’s economy using three indicators: railway cargo volume, electricity consumption and bank loans.

The index is seen as an alternative to official gross domestic product numbers released by the Chinese government.

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OPEN / CLOSED: Today and Tomorrow?

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Is the Stock Market Open or Closed on New Year’s Eve?

Bond markets will close early at 2 p.m. Eastern on Tuesday, while the New York Stock Exchange and the NASDAQ Stock Market will hold regular hours from 9:30 a.m. to 4 p.m. Eastern. Over-the-counter markets, where securities trade over a broker-dealer network rather than a major exchange, will keep normal hours.

Is the Stock Market Open or Closed on New Year’s Day?

Both the U.S. bond and stock markets will be closed in observance of New Year’s Day. Over-the-counter markets will be shut, too.

What About International Markets?

Foreign exchanges, such as the London Stock Exchange, the Euronext Paris, the Stock Exchange of Hong Kong, the Shanghai Stock Exchange, and the Tokyo Stock Exchange, will be closed on Wednesday, January 1st.

Will Banks and Post Offices Be Open?

Federal Reserve banks and United States Post Service locations will be closed in observance of New Year’s Day.

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DAILY UPDATE: Covid-19 Update as Stock Markets Fall Again and US Treasury Hacked

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Stat: 4 in 10. That’s about how many US nursing home residents got an updated Covid-19 vaccine in the winter of 2023–24, according to the CDC, despite the recommendation that adults 65 and older get the new shot. (KFF)

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Stocks fell on Monday, with the woes of the three major indexes continuing in the final week of the year as an otherwise strong 2024 comes to a close.

The benchmark S&P 500 (^GSPC) slipped more than 1% while the tech-heavy NASDAQ Composite (^IXIC) fell roughly 1.2%. The Dow Jones Industrial Average (^DJI) fell about 0.8%.

Stocks moved lower as the 10-year Treasury yield (^TNX) retreated from a seven-month high to hover near 4.55%. Stocks closed out last week with a Friday slide from Big Tech names like Tesla (TSLA) and Nvidia (NVDA), with the NASDAQ Composite falling 1.5% and the S&P 500 down over 1%.

The highly anticipated “Santa Claus” rally, which is statistically one of the most consistent seven-day positive stretches of the year for the S&P 500, has flopped thus far. Since 1950, the S&P 500 has risen 1.3% during the seven trading days beginning December 24th, well above the typical seven-day average of 0.3%, according to LPL Financial chief technical strategist Adam Turnquist. In the current period, the S&P 500 is down nearly 1%.

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Chinese state-sponsored hackers breached the U.S. Treasury Department’s computer security guardrails this month and stole documents in what Treasury called a “major incident,” according to a letter to lawmakers that was provided to Reuters on Monday.

The hackers compromised third-party cybersecurity service provider BeyondTrust and were able to access unclassified documents, the letter said.

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PARADOXICAL: Persuasion

By Staff Reporters

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QUESTION: Ever tried convincing someone by arguing against your own point?

If so, that’s paradoxical persuasion. It’s like reverse psychology’s sophisticated cousin. By presenting the opposite argument, you make people defend your original point. It’s a mental judo move, using their own momentum against them. Next time you want someone to agree with you, try saying, “You’re right, maybe we shouldn’t get pizza.”

So, according to Dan Ariely PhD, watch as they passionately argue why pizza is, in fact, the best choice for dinner.

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WALL STREET HONORING: Jimmy Carter!

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The stock market may close next month to honor Former President Jimmy Carter, who died yesterday at his home in Plains, Georgia, at the age of 100.

Carter, the 39th and longest-living U.S. president, was honored with a moment of silence earlier today at the New York Stock Exchange (ICE) and the NASDAQ (NDAQ).

When he is laid to rest in January, Wall Street will likely take a break.

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PROPORTIONALITY: Cognitive Bias

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The proportionality bias, also known as major event/major cause heuristic, is the tendency to assume that big events have big causes. It is a type of cognitive bias and plays an important role in people’s tendency to accept conspiracy theories. Academic psychologist Rob Brotherton summarized it as “When something big happens, we tend to assume that something big must have caused it”.

IOW: Proportionality Bias is the inclination to believe that the magnitude of an event’s cause must be proportional to the event’s outcome. It’s like thinking a huge disaster must have a huge cause. This bias simplifies our understanding of complex situations but often leads to misconceptions. In reality, small causes can have large effects, and vice versa.

Related: https://medicalexecutivepost.com/2022/09/09/accuracy-versus-precision/

And so, to overcome proportionality bias according to colleague Dan Ariely Phd, consider all possible explanations, regardless of their size. Remember: sometimes big things happen for small reasons.

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MARKETS: Risk-On, Risk-Off and On-Off

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Risk-On

RO = Asset prices commonly follow the risk sentiment of the market. Investors look for changing sentiment through corporate earnings, macro-economic data, and global central bank action. An increase in the stock market or where stocks outperform bonds is said to be a risk-on environment.

Risk-on environments can be carried by expanding corporate earnings, optimistic economic outlook, accommodative central bank policies, and speculation. As the market displays strong influential fundamentals, investors perceive less risk about the market and its outlook.

Risk-Off

ROff = When stocks are selling off, and investors run for shelter to bonds or gold, the environment is said to be risk-off. Risk-off environments can be caused by widespread corporate earnings downgrades, contracting or slowing economic data, and uncertain central bank policy.

Just like the stock market rises in a risk-on environment, a drop in the stock market equals a risk-off environment. Investors jump from risky assets and pile into high grade bonds, U.S. Treasury bonds, gold, cash, and other safe havens

Risk-On Risk-Off?

Risk-on-risk-off investing relies on and is driven by changes in investor risk tolerance. Risk-on-risk-off (RORO) can also sway changes in investment activity in response to economic patterns. When risk is low, investors tend to engage in higher-risk investments. Investors tend to gravitate toward lower-risk investments when risk is perceived to be high.

Note: Thanks to Chat GPT.

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HABITUATION: Repetitive Stimuli

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Habituation is your brain’s way of tuning out repetitive stimuli. It’s like background noise – after a while, you stop noticing it. This mental autopilot helps us focus on new and important information, but it can also make us overlook the familiar. It’s why you might not notice a smell in your house that’s obvious to a visitor.

To combat habituation, according to colleague Dan Ariely PhD, try changing up your routine and environment. Fresh experiences keep your brain engaged and alert.


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PARADOX: Anti-Trust Definition with Book

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The anti-trust paradox suggests that antitrust enforcement artificially raised prices by protecting inefficient competitors from competition.

The Antitrust Paradox Book is an influential 1978 book by Robert Bork that criticized the state of US anti-trust law in the 1970s. A second edition, updated to reflect substantial changes in the law, was published in 1993. Bork has credited Aaron Director as well as other economists from the University of Chicago as influences.

Bork argued that the original intent of antitrust laws as well as economic efficiency makes consumer welfare and the protection of competition, rather than competitors, were the only goals of antitrust law.

Thus, while it was appropriate to prohibit cartels that fix prices and divide markets and mergers that create monopolies, practices that are allegedly exclusionary, such as vertical agreements and price discrimination, did not harm consumers and so should not be prohibited.

The paradox of antitrust enforcement was that legal intervention artificially raised prices by protecting inefficient enterprises from competition.

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PHANTOM: Income Tax on TIPS

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“Phantom Tax” or “Phantom Income” for direct owners of Treasury inflation-protected securities (TIPS) TIPS adjust their principal values and interest payments for inflation. As with other directly owned Treasury securities, TIPS principal, including the inflation adjustments, is not paid back to investors until the securities mature.

However, the principal adjustments are taxed by the IRS as income in the year in which they occur, even though no actual payments are made in those years to investors who own TIPS directly. This is why this income is called “phantom income” and the tax on it is known as the “phantom tax.”

Investors can avoid the phantom income/tax issue for TIPS by holding TIPS in tax-deferred retirement accounts. Mutual funds and Exchange Traded Funds (ETFs) typically take the “phantom” factor out of TIPS ownership by distributing the principal adjustments as taxable dividends.

As with direct ownership of TIPS, the tax consequences of these distributions by mutual funds and ETFs can be reduced by holding TIPS-owning instruments in tax-deferred retirement accounts

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COGNITIVE BIAS: Envy and Jealousy

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Envy / Jealousy: This bias also relates to the contrast and social proof biases.  Prudent financial and business planning and related decision-making are based on real needs followed by desires.  People’s happiness and satisfaction is often based more on one’s position relative to perceived peers rather than an ability to meet absolute needs. 

The strong desire to “keep up with the Jones” can lead people to risk what they have and need for what they want.  These actions can have a disastrous impact on important long-term financial goals. 

According to colleague Dan Ariely PhD, clear communication and vivid examples of risks is often needed to keep people focused on important financial goals rather than spurious ones, or simply money alone, for its own sake.

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DAILY UPDATE: Veterans Scammed as 3 Major Markets Drop

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Read: Health insurers reportedly took billions of dollars from Medicare to cover veterans who didn’t use services. (the Wall Street Journal)

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US stocks closed the holiday week on a downbeat note as Wall Street slogged to the finish of a largely triumphant year.

The S&P 500 (^GSPC) lost 1.1%, while the tech-heavy NASDAQ Composite (^IXIC) shed 1.5% Friday at the close. The Dow Jones Industrial Average (^DJI) gave up 0.8%. Meanwhile, the 10-year Treasury yield (^TNX) hovered near seven-month highs around 4.6%.

After stacking impressive gains this year, some of the biggest names in tech lost ground as investors took profits, rebalance portfolios, or reassessed their lofty valuations. Tesla (TSLA) lost 5%. Nvidia (NVDA) gave up c2%, while Amazon (AMZN) decreased by 1%.

Wall Street has just three trading days remaining in a 2024 full of big gains, but markets have been unable to mount a “Santa Claus” rally into the end of the year.

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Visualize: How private equity tangled banks in a web of debt, from the Financial Times.

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BACKFIRE: Mind Effect

By Staff Reporters

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The Backfire Effect refers to the strengthening of a belief even after it has been challenged.

Cook and Lewandowsky (2011) explain it very well in the context of changing people’s minds in their Debunking Handbook. The backfire effect may work based on the same foundation as Declinism, in that we do not like change. It is also similar to negativity bias, in that we wish to avoid losing and other negative outcomes—in this case, one’s idea is being challenged or rejected (i.e. perceived as being made out to be “wrong”) and thus, they may hold on tighter to the idea than they had before.

However, according to colleague Dan Ariely PhD, there are caveats to the backfire effect—for example, we also tend to abandon a belief if there’s enough evidence against it with regard to specific facts.

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STOCK MARKET TRAPS: Overbought Bulls and Oversold Bears

By Staff Reporters

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What Is a Bull Trap?

A bull trap, according to James Chen, is a false signal, referring to a declining trend in a stock, index, or other security that reverses after a convincing rally and breaks a prior support level. The move “traps” traders or investors that acted on the buy signal and generates losses on resulting long positions. A bull trap may also refer to a whipsaw pattern. Read: Bull Trap.”

What is a Bear Trap

The opposite of a bull trap is a bear trap, which occurs when sellers fail to press a decline below a breakdown level.

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PCE: Personal Consumption Expenditures

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PCE or the Personal Consumption Expenditures (“PCE”) price deflator—comes from the Bureau of Economic Analysis’ quarterly report on U.S. gross domestic product—and is based on a survey of businesses and is intended to capture the price changes in all final goods, no matter the purchaser.

Because of its broader scope and certain differences in the methodology used to calculate the PCE price index, the Federal Reserve (“the Fed”) holds the PCE deflator as its preferred, consistent measure of inflation over time.

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DAILY UPDATE: Medicare Tele-Health Out as DJIA Finishes Up a Tad

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Absent Congressional action, beginning January 1sy, 2025, the statutory limitations that were in place for Medicare telehealth services prior to the COVID-19 PHE will retake effect for most telehealth services.

This means most telehealth visits will not be covered by Medicare in 2025, unless Congress acts by the end of December 2024.

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(Reuters) -The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed fractionally higher on Thursday, stretching its winning streak to five sessions despite light trading volumes and rising U.S. Treasury yields weighing on some of the dominant technology megacaps.

While the NASDAQ Composite and the S&P 500 were broadly unchanged, the indexes both finished slightly in negative territory. This snapped the NASDAQ’s four-session run of higher closes, and ended the S&P 500’s own run at three sessions.

On a day of few catalysts, investors responded to yields on U.S. government bonds inching higher, including the yield on the benchmark 10-year Treasury note hitting its highest since early May at 4.64% earlier in the session. And, a strong auction of seven-year notes early in the afternoon though helped yields come off slightly, with the 10-year note at 4.58% in late-afternoon trade.

Higher yields are traditionally seen as negative for growth stocks, as it raises the cost of their borrowing to fund expansion. With markets increasingly dominated by the megacap technology stocks known as the Magnificent Seven, crimping their performance – especially in lieu of other market catalysts – will put downward pressure on benchmark indexes.

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The S&P 500 slipped 2.45 points, or 0.04%, to 6,037.59 points, while the NASDAQ Composite lost 10.77 points, or 0.05%, to 20,020.36. The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 28.77 points, or 0.07%, to 43,325.80.

Six of the megacaps fell, with Tesla leading decliners with a 1.8% fall. The outlier was Apple, rising 0.3% and continuing to edge closer to becoming the first company in the world to hit a market value of $4 trillion.

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Visualize: How private equity tangled banks in a web of debt, from the Financial Times.

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ICARUS: Business Paradox

By Staff Reporters

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The Icarus Paradox suggests that some businesses bring about their own downfall through their own successes.

The Icarus paradox was coined by Dan Miller in his 1990 book by the same name. The term refers to the phenomenon of businesses failing abruptly after a period of apparent success, where this failure is brought about by the very elements that led to their initial success.

It alludes to Icarus of Greek mythology, who drowned after flying too close to the Sun. The failure of the very wings that allowed him to escape imprisonment and soar through the skies was what ultimately led to his demise, hence the paradox.

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CORPORATE EARNINGS: Per Share, Yield and EBDITA

DEFINITIONS

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Earnings per share (EPS): The portion of a company’s profits allocated to each outstanding share of its common stock. It is as an indicator of a company’s profitability.

Earnings yield: Earnings per share for the most recent 12 months, divided by the current market price per share; it is the inverse of the price to earnings (P/E) ratio.

EBITDA: Earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization (EBITDA) is an approximate measure of a company’s operating cash flow.

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MANDEVILLE’S Economic Paradox

DEFINITION

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Bernard Mandeville’s Paradox represent actions that may be vicious to individuals may also benefit society as a whole.

Mandeville’s Paradox challenges traditional moral and economic assumptions about selfishness and virtue. It suggests that economic systems can thrive on individual self-interest, a concept that has influenced modern economic thought, particularly in the development of free-market ideologies.

Understanding this paradox is crucial for economists, policymakers, and philosophers as it complicates the evaluation of behaviors and policies based solely on their perceived moral qualities. It invites a complex analysis of how individual actions, regardless of their intentions, contribute to the broader welfare of society.

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TRUST: Deferred Sales

DEFINITION

By Staff Reporters

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A deferred sales trust (DST) is an advanced tax strategy that allows investors to delay capital gains taxes on the sale of assets that have significantly risen in value, such as real estate or businesses. By selling the asset to a trust, the seller can receive payments over time, spreading out tax liabilities and allowing the profits to grow tax-deferred.

For example, a business owner may sell their company to a DST, avoiding a large tax bill upfront and instead receive income over multiple years. However, DSTs can be complex, and there are often fees involved in setting up and maintaining the trust.

Now, let’s point out some of the pros and cons of Deferred Sales Trusts.

One potential positive feature of using an installment sale to defer your capital gains taxes rather than a 1031 exchange is that installment sales don’t come with the same strict guidelines that govern 1031 exchanges. In particular, in light of the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act of 2017, 1031 exchanges are restricted to real property, whereas Deferred Sales Trusts and other installment sale arrangements can be used to defer capital gains for any kind of asset.

Conversely, the IRS has provided little to no guidance on how to defer taxes using an installment sale.

The basic rationale behind why you don’t receive capital gain is that you are not profiting immediately from the sale made with a Deferred Sales Trust. Given this rationale, there are various constraints on how a Deferred Sales Trust must be organized so that no capital gains taxes are in fact realized.

  • The third party to whom you transfer your asset generally cannot be a “related person” to you, such as a family member or a corporation in which you hold an interest. Except in special circumstances, if you attempt to set up a Deferred Sales Trust with a related person it will be viewed as a “sham trust” made just for the purposes of avoiding capital gains taxes, and will not be protected by the provisions in Section 453.
  • As with the 1031 exchange, you, the seller, cannot at any point in the transfer of your asset be in constructive receipt of the proceeds from the third party’s sale of that asset. To successfully defer capital gains taxes, either the third party or the trust of which they are trustee must be the only party which receives cash in the sale of the transferred asset. This includes receipt of a bond which is payable on demand.

This has been a general, informal introduction to Deferred Sales Trusts. As always, before attempting to carry out any important financial decision, investors should consult with a qualified tax or legal advisor regarding the specifics of their situation.

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HFR INVESTMENTS: Two Credit Indices

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HFRI Fund of Funds Composite Index invests with multiple managers through funds or managed accounts. The strategy designs a diversified portfolio of managers with the objective of significantly lowering the risk (volatility) of investing with an individual manager. The Fund of Funds manager may allocate funds to numerous managers within a single strategy, or with numerous managers in multiple strategies. The investor has the advantage of diversification among managers and styles with significantly less capital than investing with separate managers. The HFRI Fund of Funds Index is not included in the HFRI Fund Weighted Composite Index.

HFRI Fund Weighted Composite Index is a global, equal-weighted index of over 2,000 single-manager funds that report to HFR Database. Constituent funds report monthly net of all fees performance in U.S. Dollar and have a minimum of $50 Million under management or a twelve (12) month track record of active performance. The HFRI Fund Weighted Composite Index does not include Funds of Hedge Funds.

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SECTOR ALLOCATION: Mutual Funds

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Sector allocation in an equity or fixed-income context refers to a portfolio managers’ decision to invest in a particular broad market sector or industry.

A sector allocation or breakdown can help an investor observe the investment allocations of a mutual or other fund. Fund companies regularly provide sector reporting in their marketing materials. Sector investing can influence investments in the fund. A fund may target a specific sector such as technology, or seek to diversify among many sectors.

Some funds may have restraints on sector investments. This may occur with environmental, social, and governance (ESG) focused funds. These funds seek to exclude industries or companies that their investors consider undesirable for various reasons such as tobacco producers or oil exploration companies.

The ultimate sector allocation decision is likely to combine macroeconomic views with judgments about inter-sector and intra-sector relative values, among other reasons.

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BRUSHING: Beware Holiday Scams!

DEFINED

By Staff Reporters

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In brushing scams, according to Norton, criminals trick e-commerce platforms into believing you purchased a product, allowing them to post fake verified reviews under your name. These verified reviews increase the product’s visibility on sites like Amazon or eBay. They especially happen during the holiday season.

Here’s how it works:

  1. Information gathering: An unethical business gathers information about you through online sources such as people-search sites, data leaked through reaches, or info bought from an illegal marketplace.
  2. Bogus account creation: The business creates an online shopping account with your information.
  3. Shipment: They send a package to your address with no return address on the label.
  4. Fraudulent review: They write a glowing review in your name for the product they sent you.

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DAILY UPDATE: Ascension Healthcare Cyber Crime Attack as Stock Market “Christmas Rallies” On!

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MERRY CHRISTMAS and HAPPY HANUKKAH

The financial markets will close early on Tuesday, December 24th, for Christmas Eve and will be closed on Wednesday, December 25th, for Christmas Day. Brokerage firms will process transaction requests received after 1 p.m., Eastern time, on Tuesday, December 24th, as if received on Thursday, December 26th, before 4 p.m., Eastern Standard time

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Healthcare provider Ascension has revealed the sensitive data of 5.6 million patients was compromised in a massive cyberattack earlier this year. The ransomware attack occurred in May and threw the company into turmoil, with patient portals and files inaccessible, elective services postponed, and some ambulances diverted, according to a filing with the Maine Attorney General that was reported by TechRadar. Ascension did not name the hackers, but CNN reporting indicated it stemmed from a Russian-speaking cybercrime affiliate known as Black Basta. It’s not clear if Ascension paid a ransom to get their systems back online.

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US stocks rallied in the final, shortened trading session before the Christmas holiday. The benchmark S&P 500 (^GSPC) finished the session up over 1.1%, while the tech-heavy NASDAQ Composite (^IXIC) rose roughly 1.4%. The Dow Jones Industrial Average (^DJI) climbed around 0.9%.

Wall Street successfully entered its Christmas break rejuvenated, after tech stocks including AI chip giant Nvidia (NVDA) led the march higher. Markets closed at 1 p.m. ET and are off tomorrow for Christmas Day.

Sizable gains in the past three trading sessions have put the indexes back on the path toward their record highs, from which they took a Fed-fueled nosedive last week.

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NOMINAL YIELD: Calculation

DEFINED

By Staff Reporters

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Nominal yield, for most bonds and other fixed-income securities, is simply the yield you see listed online or in newspapers. Most nominal fixed-income yields include some extra yield, an “inflation premium,” that is typically priced/added into the yields to help offset the effects of inflation.

Real yields, such as those for TIPS, don’t have the inflation premium. As a result, nominal yields are typically higher than TIPS yields and other real yields.

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MAASTRICHT Treaty

By Staff Reporters

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The Maastricht Treaty, signed February 7th, 1992, in Maastricht, the Netherlands, created the European Union (EU) and led to the creation of the euro(€); the single currency adopted by most EU member states.

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MAYFIELD’S Paradox

By Staff Reporters

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Mayfield’s Paradox suggests that keeping everyone out of an information system is impossible, but so is getting everybody in.

The paradox is depicted as a U-curve, where the cost of a system is on the vertical axis, and the percentage of humanity that can access the system is on the horizontal axis. Acceptance of this paradox by the information security community was immediate, because it was consistent with the professional experiences of this group.

Mayfield’s Paradox points out that, at some point of the curve, additional security becomes unrealistically expensive. Conversely, at some point of the curve, it becomes unrealistically expensive to add additional users.

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CHRISTMAS EVE GIFTS: Keeping Up with the Jones

Feeling the Pressure to “Give”

By Rick Kahler MS CFP®

Are you feeling any pressure this Christmas season to give, give, give? Keeping up with the Joneses all year is hard enough. It gets even worse during the holidays, when we feel pressured to keep up, not just with the Joneses, but also with the expectations others, and ourselves, put on Santa Claus.

Some Christmas shoppers overspend on gifts and end up paying off credit card bills for months. Others drive themselves crazy trying to find exactly the right gifts for the right people. Others hate the whole idea of shopping so much that they find it hard to enjoy the season.

If you fit into any of these categories, the cause may be your money scripts. The unconscious beliefs about money that we all hold are especially likely to kick in this time of year. We are surrounded by expectations and pressures about “ideal” holiday celebrations with the perfect gifts, the perfect decorations, and the perfect foods. As a result, we are especially vulnerable to making money decisions blindly in response to beliefs we don’t even realize we hold.

You may be one of those who regularly end up spending significantly more on gifts than you intended to. You may impulsively buy additional, unbudgeted gifts for people you’ve already bought presents for. You may not even try to set holiday spending limits. You may overspend on things for yourself while you’re Christmas shopping.

  • If any of these are true for you, you may have some unconscious beliefs about money that drive you to overspend. See whether any of the following money scripts might fit for you:
  • “The more you spend, the more love you show.”
  • “It takes the joy out of giving if you pinch pennies.”
  • “It’s the season for giving lavishly, not for being a Scrooge.”
  • “If I don’t buy just the right gifts, people won’t like or respect me.”
  • “I need to give my kids more than I got when I was a child.”
  • “More gifts and more spending will make the holidays okay (and make my guilt go away).”
  • “It’s tradition. Everyone expects (whatever) from me.”
  • “I do so much for everyone else; I deserve something for myself, too.”

It’s also possible you may go to the opposite extreme and be a Grinch when it comes to the holidays. If you hate Christmas shopping, grumble about the holiday being so commercialized, and look forward to January, it’s possible you may hold some money scripts that drive you to underspend. Your beliefs may be similar to the following:

  • “It’s wrong to spend money except on necessities.”
  • “You aren’t a spiritual or religious person if you spend too much money.”
  • “Christmas shouldn’t be about money.”
  • “It’s wrong to spend money on luxuries when poor people are suffering.”
  • “It isn’t good for kids to get too much.”
  • “My kids shouldn’t have more than I had when I was a child.”

Christmas Wreath

If you’d like to change some aspects of what you do and how you feel about holiday spending, you may find it useful to take a closer look at your own beliefs about the season. One way to begin this is to quickly write answers (short statements are best) to the following questions: What do I believe about money and each of the following? Christmas? Family celebrations? Presents? Giving? Spending? Receiving?

Assessment

You may uncover some money scripts similar to the ones listed above. Learning why you tend to overspend or under spend this time of year won’t instantly change what you do. Yet understanding what is behind your pattern of holiday spending is an important way to start becoming a more conscious Christmas shopper.

Conclusion

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Risk Management, Liability Insurance, and Asset Protection Strategies for Doctors and Advisors: Best Practices from Leading Consultants and Certified Medical Planners™8Comprehensive Financial Planning Strategies for Doctors and Advisors: Best Practices from Leading Consultants and Certified Medical Planners™

DAILY UPDATE: FDIC Misconduct as Stocks Climb

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The stock market will be open on Christmas Eve 2024 but will close early at 1 p.m. ET in anticipation of Christmas Day. This early closure allows market participants to wind down ahead of the holiday.

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The Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation has suspended pay bonuses for roughly two dozen executives under investigation for misconduct, a year after a Wall Street Journal investigation revealed a toxic and sexualized workplace culture at the bank regulator.

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Stocks climbed on Monday as tech rallied and investors considered the path of interest rates next year after the Fed hinted they would stay higher for longer.

The S&P 500 (^GSPC) gained 0.7%, while the tech-heavy NASDAQ (^IXIC) rose almost 1%. The Dow Jones Industrial Average (^DJI) erased earlier losses to edge almost 0.2% higher.

Semiconductor stocks gained, as shares of chipmakers Nvidia (NVDA) and Broadcom (AVGO) rose more than 3% and 5%, respectively. And, robust gains from social media platform Meta (META) and EV giant Tesla (TSLA) also helped lead the broader market higher.

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WITNESS Stress Issues

By Staff Reporters

DEFINED

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Witness Stress is caused by witnessing a traumatic event and can lead to memory issues and confusion, affecting how accurately we remember details. This stress makes eyewitness testimonies more prone to error.

According to colleague Dan Ariily PhD, it highlights the role of stress in memory distortion and why additional support is often necessary for witnesses.

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INVESTMENT PORTFOLIO: More on Year End Mutual Fund “Window Dressing”

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By Steve Selengut

December values may not be what they seem

NOTE: Mr. Selengut is a private investor and a contributing editor to LIFE & Health Advisor. He is the author of the book ‘The Brainwashing of the American Investor: The book that Wall Street does not want you to read.

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As [physician] investors, and we all are investors these days, it is important that we understand the idiosyncrasies of year-end Stock Market activity. On Wall Street, investing can be a minefield for those who don’t appreciate the non-economic, non-business-model, factors contributing to the market value numbers in fourth quarter brokerage account summaries.

Year end market values may not be what they seem ….

“Portfolio Window Dressing” (PWD) produces security pricing that is more a function of next year’s institutional marketing programs than a reflection of the economic forces that we would like to think are their primary determining factors. Not even close…

Toward the end of every calendar quarter, we hear the financial media report that “institutional PWD activities” are in full swing. But that is as deep as the stories ever go. What are they talking about, and just what does it mean to you as an investor?

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READ MORE: https://www.lifehealth.com/year-end-portfolio-window-dressing/

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VIDEO: Christmas 2024 Holiday City Lights Tour

  By Dr. David Edward Marcinko MBA

[CEO – iMBA Inc]

Dr. DEMTo Our ME-P Subscribers, iMBA Inc., Clients and Friends 

As we look forward to sharing the holidays with family and friends, we also remember those less fortunate.

And, as has been our practice in recent years, rather than sending holiday greeting cards, the iMBA Inc will provide support to several charities dedicated to helping those in need.

We hope this gesture provides happier holidays for others and serves to express our gratitude to you, in the spirit of the season, for your continued support and loyalty to this ME-P.

Happy New Year 2024

We also extend our hope that the New Year 2022 brings you and your loved ones good health, happiness and a world that comes to know peace and understanding.

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Channel Surfing the ME-P

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MORE: Shopping Trends and Physicians

A New Christmas Tradition: Take a Walk?

Conclusion

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CHOICE: Overload Paradox

By Dr. David Edward Marcinko MBA MEd CMP

SPONSOR: http://www.MarcinkoAssociates.com

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Choice Overload is the difficulty in making a decision when faced with too many options. It’s like standing in front of an ice cream counter with 31 flavors and feeling paralyzed.

Among personal decision-makers, a prevention focus is activated and people are more satisfied with their choices after choosing among few options compared to many options, i.e. choice overload. However, individuals can also experience a reverse choice overload effect when acting as proxy decision-maker, too.

It is widely accepted that having more choices is inherently positive. When there are more available options from which to choose, an individual is more likely to be able to select the particular option that is the best fit and most likely to satisfy them. Choice is typically thought to be related to personal freedom and enhanced well-being.

Therefore, according to colleague Neal Baum MD, for most individuals the ultimate goal is to constantly maximize their choices in life to increase their overall satisfaction and well-being. The decision-making process, however, is a complex cognitive task that does not always lead to positive outcomes.

Thus, while having options is generally good, too many choices can lead to anxiety and decision fatigue. This is why curated selections and recommendations are so popular – they simplify the decision-making process’ according to another colleague Dan Ariely PhD.

So, when you’re overwhelmed by choices, narrow them down to a manageable number and make your decision easier.

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EUROPEAN UNION Paradox

By Staff Reporters

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The European Union Paradox is the perceived failure of European countries to translate scientific advances into marketable innovations.

The root of this issue remains debated: is it due to the scientific output being distant from the cutting-edge, or is it because the European innovation system lacks the capacity to harness the potential of groundbreaking research?

And so, this study reveals that, compared to similar European research, the European Research Council has a similar probability of being cited in patents, although it garners a larger number of patent citations. Moreover, patents that do draw upon ERC research are often of superior quality, measured by forward citations.

Compared to similar European research, inventive activities arising from ERC science are predominantly housed within universities and public research organizations. In absolute terms, however, US organizations, especially US companies, still lead in deriving the greatest benefit from ERC science.

Cite: https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=4635463

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PRIMARY MARKETS: Exchange Traded Funds

BY: http://www.MarcinkoAssociates.com

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Primary Market: The primary market is also part of the stock market but differs from the secondary market because it only sells newly issued stocks.

Primary Market for Exchange Traded Funds: The primary market is where ETF shares are created and redeemed amongst ETF issuers and authorized participants. This is where the underlying basket of securities that make up an ETF is created. Shares of ETFs are made in large batches called Creation Units—usually 25,000 to 600,000 ETF shares are created at a time through this process.

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METZLER’S Paradox

By Staff Reporters

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Metzler’s Paradox is the imposition of a tariff [tax] on imports that may reduce the relative internal price of that good.

It was proposed by Lloyd Metzler PhD in 1949 upon examination of tariffs within the Heckscher-Ohlin Model. The paradox has roughly the same status as immiserizing growth and a transfer that makes the recipient worse off.

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e-BOOKS: For Doctors, Financial Advisors, CPAs, Insurance Agents, Medical Consultants and Health Law Attorneys

By Ann Miller RN MHA CMP

INTRODUCING OUR NEXT GENERATION e-BOOK LIBRARY FROM iMBA, Inc.

An e-book is an electronic or digital book that can be read on a computer or a handheld device.

Our new e-books consists of text, images, and are fixed to a specific spot on the page.

And, our e-books are a data files similar in content and structure to a word-processing document that comes in a PDF format. To use our e-books, you need to purchase and download it to a device that has a .pdf file reader app, such as ADOBE® or similar on a smartphone, tablet or computer. A PDF, also known as a portable document format, is the format most people are familiar with and used in our e-books. PDFs are known for their ease of use and ability to hold custom layouts. They are the most commonly used e-Book formats, especially by professionals and adult-learners.

You can then access the e-book and read it, or highlight pages and even take side notes.

e-Books Save Money

With no manufacturing, printing, binding or shipping costs, e-Books are cheaper than traditional hard or paper back books.The price of each specialized and highly niche focused e-Book [50-100 pages] is only $25, whereas similar paperback printed books of this type generally cost $145, or more!

Payable thru PayPal [3% courtesy surcharge applies].

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STOCK INDEX: Hang Seng

By Staff Reporters

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The Hang Seng Index is a free float-adjusted market capitalization-weighted stock market index and the main indicator of overall market performance in Hong Kong. It launched in 1969.

The Hang Seng Index (HSI) tracks and records daily changes in the largest companies listed on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange and serves as the primary indicator of overall market performance in Hong Kong. Its’ 82 constituent companies represent about 58% of the capitalization of the Hong Kong Stock Exchange.

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DOCTORS: Preparing Your Vehicle for Winter in 2025 is Easy!

An Oft Neglected Chore

Dr. Marcinko[By Dr. David Edward Marcinko MBA MEd]

Hello ME-P Readers!

Doctors and Colleagues – You have probably noticed the weather is getting colder, and you’ve made some changes, right? Thanksgiving is past and X-mass day is nigh! Have you started wearing jackets, packed up the flip-flops, and replaced the A/C with heat?

If you have, that is great, but what have you done to prepare your car for the cold winter months?

Betchya didn’t know that, much like your patients, your car needs to be equally prepared for the colder seasons! It’s a fact—your car reacts to the colder weather in many of the same ways us humans do. Sure, we have blood and skin, where cars have oil and metal, but stay with me here.

There are a few simple things you can do to make sure your trusted car is ready to battle the elements.  So; let’s take a quick look at my classic 2000 Jaguar XJ-V8-XL touring sedan; and those pesky winter car tasks.

Editor's Jaguar XJ-V8-LWB touring sedan

The List

First of all, your car’s electrical system can take a beating in the cold. The battery has a Cold Cranking Amps (CCA) rating, which should help you determine if it’s powerful enough for those snowy days. The higher the number, the better you’re protected from being stranded. An inspection of your electrical system is always a good idea, though.

Second, you should also consider inspecting the windshield wipers on your vehicle. It’s an easy thing to forget about until you really need them, and then of course they’re worn out. Winter weather, with frost, ice, snow, and dry air can really deteriorate the rubber in wipers.

Third, though it may seem backwards, your vehicle’s cooling system should be in good working condition as well. If the coolant mixture and levels aren’t correct, you could have some very, very expensive repairs waiting for you. Overheating is less of an issue, but your engine actually freezing when not running is a very real, and expensive, danger. And, did you know that your engine’s cooling system also controls your heat inside! A cooling system malfunction could also mean some very cold commutes for you.

Next, headlights are often ignored, too, until you get caught out one night with burnt-out bulbs. With the days getting shorter, and the nights getting much longer and darker, it’s not a bad idea to replace your headlights. Why not upgrade them while you’re at it? The price difference is minimal, and the difference in visibility will make night driving a true joy.

Finally, let’s talk about tires. Some tires are much more suited to winter weather than others! Some tires, especially on performance cars, are rated for summer use only, while others might be “three season” tires. Of course, many cars come standard with all-season tires as well. For those that encounter frequent winter conditions, though, a set of full-winter tires is the best option.

Classic XJ-V8-WB Jaguar

Assessment

Now, just like the patients in your waiting room …. NEXT!

Conclusion

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DAILY UPDATE: Winter Solstice & Endo Health Solutions as Stock Markets Rebound

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The winter solstice, also called the hibernal solstice, occurs when either of Earth’s poles reaches its maximum tilt away from the Sun. This happens twice yearly, once in each hemisphere (North and South). For that hemisphere, the winter solstice is the day with the shortest period of daylight and longest night of the year, and when the Sun is at its lowest daily maximum elevation in the sky. Each polar region experiences continuous darkness or twilight around its winter solstice.

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Stat: $200 million. That’s how much drug manufacturer Endo Health Solutions paid the federal government for profiting from the opioid crisis and racking up $4 billion in unpaid taxes. (ProPublica)

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US stocks bounced back Friday as investors digested key inflation data that showed a deceleration in price increases during the month of November.

The tech-heavy NASDAQ Composite (^IXIC) gained 1%. The Dow Jones Industrial Average (^DJI) added 1.2%, while the S&P 500 (^GSPC) rose 1.1%.

But the rebound wasn’t enough to overcome losses earlier in the week. All three major gauges finished the week lower. The NASDAQ gave up 1.8% while the Dow and the S&P both shed around 2%.

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FREDDIE MAC: (FHLMC-Federal Home Loan Mortgage Corporation)

By Staff Reporters

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Freddie Mac (FHLMC-Federal Home Loan Mortgage Corporation)

Freddie Mac is a GSE [government-sponsored enterprise] established by Congress. It’s similar to Fannie Mae with a publicly owned corporate structure. (Freddie Mac’s stock (FRE) trades on the New York Stock Exchange.) These two giant GSEs increase liquidity in the U.S. mortgage market by purchasing mortgages from lenders, then typically repackaging (securitizing) the debt and reselling it to investors, helping to create a “secondary” market for mortgages.

The GSEs’ main purpose is to assure that mortgage money is available for borrowers. But they don’t lend money directly. Instead, they purchase mortgages from “primary” lenders like mortgage companies, banks, and credit unions. That allows the primary lenders to replenish their funds and lend more money to home buyers. The GSEs finance their mortgage purchases by issuing mortgage-backed securities (MBS) and other debt instruments (often referred to as agency debt, even though, technically, the GSEs aren’t government agencies). GSE debt is considered to have relatively high credit quality based on its implicit government backing, reinforced by what happened during the Financial Crisis in 2008.

Since Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac were placed into government conservatorship in September 2008, the government has pledged to support any shortfall in the balance sheets of the two GSEs. The U.S. Treasury has said it will ensure that both GSEs can maintain a positive net worth and fulfill all of their financial obligations. This statement of support lends credence to the very high credit ratings of MBS and other debt issued by Fannie and Freddie.

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BONDS: Revenue

DEFINITION

By Staff Reporters

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Revenue bonds are one of the biggest sectors in the municipal debt market.

Unlike a general obligation (GO) bond, revenue bonds are not backed by a municipal issuer’s taxing authority. Instead, interest and principal are secured by the net revenues (tolls, fees, or other charges tied to usage) from the project or facility being financed.

Revenue bonds are issued to finance a variety of capital projects, including construction or refurbishment of utility and waste disposal systems, highways, bridges, tunnels, air and seaport facilities, schools and hospitals.

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ULYSSES PACT: Will Power and Self Control

DEFINED

Staff Reporters

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Taking away a future choice from oneself to avoid anticipated willpower failures.
The present self trying to help the future self resist temptation.

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Ulysses Pact is a commitment made with oneself to accomplish a tough goal by limiting the choice to back out, boosting the chances of success by removing tempting alternatives.

According to colleague Dan Ariely PhD, it’s a self-control strategy that’s especially useful for resisting short-term temptations.

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DAILY UPDATE: Healthcare Satisfaction Poll as Stock Markets Close Flat

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Americans aren’t satisfied with healthcare.

Gallup’s annual Health and Healthcare poll released on December 6th found that the US adult rating of healthcare quality is the lowest it’s been since 2001, with 54% of respondents saying they believe the healthcare system has “major problems” and 16% saying it’s in a “state of crisis.” In 2001, 53% viewed healthcare positively.

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US stocks closed little changed as a rebound from the previous day’s sell-off flopped with a hawkish outlook from the Federal Reserve on its path for interest rates looming over markets.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average (^DJI) ended a 10-day losing streak, its longest in 50 years, as it closed just above the flat line on Thursday. Meanwhile, the S&P 500 (^GSPC) and tech-heavy NASDAQ Composite (^IXIC) both fell about 0.1%.

The 10-year Treasury yield (^TNX) continued its trek higher on Thursday, rising roughly seven basis points to hit 4.57% for its highest levels since May.

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AUSTERITY: Financial Measures

By Staff Reporters

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Austerity Financial Measures describe official actions (typically taken under duress) by financially challenged governments (those that are under the threat of otherwise not being able to meet all of their obligations to debt holders and other creditors) to reduce the amount of money they spend, freeing more of it for paying off liabilities.

Austerity measures commonly involve deficit cutting, reduced spending, and cuts in government benefits and services provided. They are considered a “necessary evil,” along with revenue-raising measures, for bringing government budgets back into financial balance.

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Survivor’s Guilt

By Staff Reporters

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Survivor’s Guilt is the feeling of guilt experienced by those who have survived a tragedy when others did not. It’s like winning a lottery you didn’t want to enter. This emotional response can be overwhelming, as survivors question why they lived while others didn’t. It’s a mix of empathy, remorse, and a search for meaning in the randomness of survival.

According to colleague Dan Ariely PhD, If you or someone you know is dealing with survivor’s guilt, remember: it’s a natural reaction, and seeking support can help navigate these complex feelings.

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PARADOX: Demographic-Economics

By Staff Reporters

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Demographic-Economics Paradox Definition: A nations or sub-populations with higher GDP per capita are observed to have fewer children, even though a richer population can support more children. Dr. Herwig Birg has called this inverse relationship between income and fertility a “demo-economic paradox”.

Cite: https://www.researchgate.net/profile/Herwig-Birg

Why? Evolutionary biology predicts that more successful individuals (and by analogy countries) should seek to develop optimum conditions for their life and reproduction.

However, in the last half of the 20th century it has become clear that the economic success of developed countries is being counterbalanced by a demographic failure, a sub-replacement fertility that may prove destructive for their future economies and societies.

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DAILY UPDATE: Undo Medical Debt, Native American Medical Debt as Stock Markets Plummet and Plunge

MEDICAL EXECUTIVE-POST TODAY’S NEWSLETTER BRIEFING

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Stat: 23,000. That’s about how many Connecticut residents will get at least part of their medical debt eliminated, thanks to a state partnership with nonprofit organization Undue Medical Debt. (NBC Connecticut)

CITE: https://tinyurl.com/2h47urt5

The stock market plunged on Wednesday after the Federal Reserve scaled back its expectations for interest rate cuts next year.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell about 1,100 points, or 2.5%, the largest drop for the index since August. The dip marked the 10th consecutive day of losses for the Dow, its longest losing streak since 1974.

The S&P 500 fell nearly 3%, while the tech-heavy NASDAQ plummeted about 3.5%.

CITE: https://tinyurl.com/tj8smmes

Native American patients are reportedly often billed for healthcare services the government is supposed to pay for, according to an investigation. (KFF Health News)

Visualize: How private equity tangled banks in a web of debt, from the Financial Times.

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