DAILY UPDATE: The US Economy of KH and Medicare [Part C] with Mixed Stock Markets

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The Wall Street Journal explores what Kamala Harris as president would mean for the economy. (the Wall Street Journal)

  • Q2 GDP was shockingly strong, with today’s reading of 2.8% growth outpacing the 2.1% economists expected.
  • The Japanese yen is rising while US tech stocks are falling.
  • You’re in my seat: Southwest Airlines is getting rid of its open seating arrangement and shifting to assigned seats.
  • 32 charts that tell you everything you need to know about markets midway through 2024 at a glance.
  • The Fed should cut interest rates at next week’s meeting, according to the former president of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
  • Bill Ackman is trying to turn social media stardom into profit.

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Here’s where the major stock market benchmarks ended:

  • The S&P 500® index (SPX) fell about 28 points (0.5%) to 5,399.22; the Dow Jones Industrial Average® ($DJI) rose 81 points (0.2%) to 39,935.07; the NASDAQ Composite ended 161 points lower (0.9%) at 17,181.72.
  • The 10-year Treasury note yield (TNX) dropped four basis points to 4.255%.
  • The CBOE Volatility Index® (VIX)declined 0.6% to 17.94.

What’s up

What’s down

  • Universal Music Group tumbled 23.54% after subscription and streaming revenues fell well short of analyst expectations.
  • Ford plummeted 18.40% for the automaker’s worst day of trading since 2009 after it missed profit expectations and provided no positive forecast for the quarters ahead.
  • Lululemon slid 9.09% thanks to a downgrade from Citi analysts from “buy” to “neutral” predicated on a sales slowdown.
  • Royal Caribbean sank 7.61% after the company indicated that it’s facing a slowdown in demand.
  • Edwards Lifesciences crashed 31.27% thanks to a mixed earnings report, as well as management’s guidance that sales for its key heart valve replacement therapy will sink next quarter.

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Thousands of seniors are losing coverage at local hospitals as problems plague Medicare Advantage. Lower payout rates for Medicare and Medicaid are sparking insurance companies to leave certain areas and change coverage options across the country.

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DAILY UPDATE: Digital Therapeutics, FSEDs, Medical Costs and the NASDAQ Collapse

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You’ve heard of an emergency department and an urgent care center, but have you heard of a freestanding emergency department (FSED)? While only 1% of FSEDs were freestanding in 2001, that figure jumped to 11% in 2016, totaling 566 facilities nationwide. The concept of FSEDs dates back to the 1970s, when these facilities provided emergency care to people in rural areas who didn’t have convenient access to hospitals. In 2001, there were only 50 FSEDs in the US—now there are about 745, according to 2018 research by the Emergency Medicine Network, which Herscovici worked on.

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Here’s where the major benchmarks ended:

  • The S&P 500 fell about 129 points (2.3%) to 5,427.13; the Dow Jones Industrial Average shed 504 points (1.3%) to 39,853.87; the NASDAQ Composite ended 655 points lower (3.6%) at 17,342.41.
  • The 10-year Treasury note yield (TNX) rose four basis points to 4.291%.
  • The CBOE Volatility Index® (VIX) surged 23% to 18.13.

What’s up

  • Enphase Energy gained 12.80% despite missing earnings estimates as investors cheered management’s very positive forecast for the solar company’s future.
  • AT&T phoned in a 5.22% pop after reporting a stronger than expected increase in its number of wireless subscribers, a key metric its competitor Verizon recently missed on.
  • Mattel rose yet another 9.80% as takeover rumors continue to swirl, with reports that rival toy maker Hasbro could place a competing bid.
  • Seagate Technology jumped 4.02% thanks to a strong earnings report from the hardware maker.

What’s down

  • Visa slid 4.01% after missing analyst estimates for revenue thanks to slower consumer spending.
  • AMC Entertainment Holdings fell 7.68% after the company tried to get ahead of bad news and released preliminary earnings that impressed nobody.
  • Vertiv Holdings sank 13.64% despite beating earnings estimates, with investors seemingly worried about the AI play’s sky-high valuation.
  • General Dynamics stumbled 3.32% thanks to fewer deliveries of its high-end jets last quarter.
  • Lamb Weston dropped like a hot potato, plunging 28.24% after the frozen food supplier announced earnings well below expectations and forecast a terrible second half of the year.

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The Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services (CMS) proposed CPT payment codes for some digital therapeutics products for the first time, potentially paving a pathway toward widespread reimbursement for the nascent industry.

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In 2025, medical costs are projected to increase 8% in the group market and 7.5% in the individual market—the highest levels seen in 13 years—according to an analysis from consulting firm PwC’s Health Research Institute. The anticipated rise is mainly pinned on inflationary pressure, expensive pharmaceuticals, and an increasing number of patients seeking mental health care, analysts found.

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What is “Risk Adjusted” Stock Market Performance?

Update on Some Interesting and Important Financial Calculations

By Timothy J. McIntosh MBA CFP® MPH

By Dr. David Edward Marcinko MBA MEd CMP™

By Jeffrey S. Coons PhD CFA

TMDr. Jeff Coons

dr-david-marcinko9

-INTRODUCTION-

Performance measurement, like an annual physical, is an important feedback loop to monitor progress towards the goals of the medical professional’s investment program.  Performance comparisons to market indices and/or peer groups are a useful part of this feedback loop, as long as they are considered in the context of the market environment and with the limitations of market index and manager database construction.

Inherent to performance comparisons is the reality that portfolios taking greater risk will tend to out-perform less risky investments during bullish phases of a market cycle, but are also more likely to under-perform during the bearish phase.  The reason for focusing on performance comparisons over a full market cycle is that the phases biasing results in favor of higher risk approaches can be balanced with less favorable environments for aggressive approaches to lessen/eliminate those biases.

So, as physicians and other investors, can we eliminate the biases of the market environment by adjusting performance for the risk assumed by the portfolio?  While several interesting calculations have been developed to measure risk-adjusted performance, the unfortunate answer is that the biases of the market environment still tend to have an impact even after adjusting returns for various measures of risk.

However, medical professionals and their advisors will have many different risk-adjusted return statistics presented to them, so understanding the Sharpe ratio, Treynor ratio, Jensen’s measure or alpha, Morningstar star ratings, etc. and their limitations should help to improve the decisions made from the performance measurement feedback loop.

[a] The Treynor Ratio

The Treynor ratio measures the excess return achieved over the risk free return per unit of systematic risk as identified by beta to the market portfolio.  In practice, the Treynor ratio is often calculated using the T-Bill return for the risk-free return and the S&P 500 for the market portfolio.

[b] The Sharpe Ratio

The Sharpe ratio, named after CAPM pioneer William F. Sharpe, was originally formulated by substituting the standard deviation of portfolio returns (i.e., systematic plus unsystematic risk) in the place of beta of the Treynor ratio.  Thus, a fully diversified portfolio with no unsystematic risk will have a Sharpe ratio equal to its Treynor ratio, while a less diversified portfolio may have significantly different Sharpe and Treynor ratios.

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[c] The Jensen Alpha Measure

The Jensen measure, named after CAPM research Michael C. Jensen, takes advantage of the CAPM equation discussed in the Portfolio Management section to identify a statistically significant excess return or alpha of a portfolio.  The essential idea is that to investigate the performance of an investment manager you must look not only at the overall return of a portfolio, but also at the risk of that portfolio.

For instance, if there are two mutual funds that both have a 12 percent return, a lucid investor will want the fund that is less risky. Jensen’s gauge is one of the ways to help decide if a portfolio is earning the appropriate return for its level of risk. If the value is positive, then the portfolio is earning excess returns. In other words, a positive value for Jensen’s alpha means a fund manager has “beat the market” with his or her stock picking skills compared with the risk the manager has taken.

[d] Database Ratings

The ratings given to mutual funds by databases, such as Morningstar, and various financial magazines are another attempt to develop risk-adjusted return measures.  These ratings are generally based on a ranking system for funds calculated from return and risk statistics.

A popular example is Morningstar’s star ratings, representing a weighting of three, five and ten year risk/return ratings.  This measure uses a return score from cumulative excess monthly fund returns above T-Bills and a risk score derived from the cumulative monthly return below T-Bills, both of which are normalized by the average for the fund’s asset class.  These scores are then subtracted from each other and funds in the asset class are ranked on the difference.  The top 10 percent receive five stars, the next 22.5 percent get four stars, the subsequent 35 percent receive three stars, the next 22.5 percent receive two stars, and the remaining 10 percent get one star.

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Assessment

Unfortunately, these ratings systems tend to have the same problems of consistency and environmental bias seen in both non-risk adjusted comparisons over 3 and 5 year time periods and the other risk-adjusted return measures discussed above.  The bottom line on performance measurement is that the medical professional should not take the easy way out and accept independent comparisons, no matter how sophisticated, at face value.  Returning to our original rules-of-thumb, understanding the limitations of performance statistics is the key to using those statistics to monitor progress towards one’s goals.

This requires an understanding of performance numbers and comparisons in the context of the market environment and the composition/construction of the indices and peer group universes used as benchmarks.

Another important rule-of-thumb is to avoid projecting forward historical average returns, especially when it comes to strong performance in a bull market environment.  Much of an investment or manager’s performance may be environment-driven, and environments can change dramatically.

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ABOUT

Timothy J. McIntosh is Chief Investment Officer and founder of SIPCO.  As chairman of the firm’s investment committee, he oversees all aspects of major client accounts and serves as lead portfolio manager for the firm’s equity and bond portfolios. Mr. McIntosh was a Professor of Finance at Eckerd College from 1998 to 2008. He is the author of The Bear Market Survival Guide and the The Sector Strategist.  He is featured in publications like the Wall Street Journal, New York Times, USA Today, Investment Advisor, Fortune, MD News, Tampa Doctor’s Life, and The St. Petersburg Times.  He has been recognized as a Five Star Wealth Manager in Texas Monthly magazine; and continuously named as Medical Economics’ “Best Financial Advisors for Physicians since 2004.  And, he is a contributor to SeekingAlpha.com., a premier website of investment opinion. Mr. McIntosh earned a Bachelor of Science Degree in Economics from Florida State University; Master of Business Administration (M.B.A) degree from the University of Sarasota; Master of Public Health Degree (M.P.H) from the University of South Florida and is a CERTIFIED FINANCIAL PLANNER® practitioner. His previous experience includes employment with Blue Cross/Blue Shield of Florida, Enterprise Leasing Company, and the United States Army Military Intelligence.

Dr. Jeffrey S. Coons is the Co-Director of Research at Manning & Napier Advisors, Inc. with primary responsibilities focusing on the measurement and management of portfolio risk and return relative to client objectives.  This includes providing analysis across every aspect of the investment process, from objectives setting and asset allocation to on-going monitoring of portfolio risk and return.  Dr. Coons is also member of the Investment Policy Group, which establishes and monitors secular investment trends, macroeconomic overviews, and the investment disciplines of the firm. Dr. Coons holds a doctoral degree in economics from Temple University, graduated with distinction from the University of Rochester with a B.A. in Economics, holds the designation of Chartered Financial Analyst, and is one of the employee-owners of Manning and Napier.

Conclusion

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DAILY UPDATE: Ardent Health IPO, Davita Settles, Amex Reports with Choppy Stock Markets

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Stat: 13%. That’s how much millennial and Gen Z spending increased year over year, according to American Express earnings released last week. Amex reported slower growth in travel and entertainment compared to the previous quarter, but restaurant spending “remained strong.” (PYMNTS)

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Here’s where the major stock market benchmarks ended:

  • The S&P 500 fell about 9 points (0.16%) to 5,555.69; the Dow Jones Industrial Average shed 57 points (0.14%) to 40,358.09; the NASDAQ Composite ($COMP) ended 10 points lower (0.06%) at 17,997.35.
  • The 10-year Treasury note yield (TNX) was unchanged at 4.255%.
  • The CBOE Volatility Index® (VIX) decreased about 2% to 14.62.

What’s up

What’s down

  • UPS delivered a 12.05% dip, falling to new all-time lows after missing analyst earnings expectations, as well as cutting its revenue forecast.
  • NXP Semiconductors plunged 7.58% on management’s poor revenue forecast for the coming quarter, despite meeting expectations this quarter.
  • Comcast sank 2.58% on a mixed earnings announcement that saw the company beat on earnings but miss revenue thanks to a slow theme parks segment.
  • GM stalled 6.43% despite announcing solid earnings—investors didn’t like to hear management note that the second half of the year will be a lot tougher.

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Kidney care giant DaVita has agreed to pay nearly $34.5 million to settle allegations that it paid kickbacks for referrals to its former DavitaRx subsidary.


And … Ardent Health was targeting a $300 million IPO but raised just $192 million.

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DAILY UPDATE: UnitedHealth Group and PBMs as Technology Stocks Soar

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Here’s where the major stock market benchmarks ended:

The Cboe Volatility Index® (VIX) fell sharply to 14.91.

The S&P 500® index (SPX) rose 59.41 points (1.1%) to 5,564.41; the Dow Jones Industrial Average® ($DJI) climbed 127.91 points (0.3%) to 40,415.44; the NASDAQ Composite® ($COMP)jumped 280.63 points (1.6%) to 18,007.57. 

The 10-year Treasury note yield (TNX) added two basis points to 4.26%.

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What’s up

What’s down

  • Crowdstrike withered another 13.46% as the fallout from what’s being hailed as the largest IT outage in history continues to punish the stock.
  • Trump Media & Technology Group dipped 0.83% during the trading session after President Biden’s announcement that he’s dropping out of the presidential race.
  • Verizon sank 6.04% after whiffing on its earnings report, missing on revenue thanks to customers holding on to their old phones for longer.
  • Ryanair crumbled 15.41% following an earnings report that revealed the company’s earnings after taxes sank an eye-watering 46% last quarter.
  • Starbucks dropped 3.43% on a report by the Wall Street Journal late last week that activist investor Elliott Investment Management has taken a stake in the coffee chain.

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The US House of Representatives Committee on Oversight and Accountability is holding a hearing tomorrow, bringing in PBMs from around the US to testify on “their role in rising healthcare costs.” The hearing comes soon after an FTC report found PBMs to have an “outsized influence” on drug pricing.

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The February cyberattack on a UnitedHealth Group subsidiary may have exposed the health data of one in three Americans, but the nation’s largest health insurance company by market cap and revenue returned to profitability in the second quarter, beating Wall Street expectations and reporting net income of $4.2 billion.

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CORPORATE EARNINGS REPORT: Week

By Staff Reporters

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Earnings announcements are a public statement of a company’s profitability for a specific period of time, such as a quarter (90 days) or a year. Equities research analysts will issue estimates of the company’s earnings numbers prior to its announcement date, which is generally set weeks or months in advance. If a company releases better results than analysts predict, its share price will generally rise after the announcement. Below you will find a list of public companies announcing their earnings results this week.

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Earnings reports to feast on them this week. About one-quarter of S&P 500 companies will release their Quarter 2nd financials, including Alphabet, Coca-Cola, Tesla, UPS, Visa, Chipotle, Comcast, GM, and Southwest Airlines.

And if you have room for more economic data, the government will release its first estimate of Q2 GDP on Thursday and an important inflation gauge on Friday.

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DAILY UPDATE: Starbucks, Crowdstrike, US Banks and Charles Schwab

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Shares of Charles Schwab (NYSE: SCHW) fell over 15% last week, according to data from S&P Global Market Intelligence. One of the largest brokerages posted slow growth and poor earnings as the company deals with low-yielding assets on its balance sheet. As of 1:31 p.m. ET on Friday, July 19th, Charles Schwab stock was down 17.5% this week.

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Activist investor Elliott Investment Management has reportedly built up a substantial stake in Starbucks and has been pushing the coffee chain to improve its stock price.

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Markets: The S&P 500 logged its worst week since April as investors pulled back from Big Tech stocks. CrowdStrike fell because causing a global IT outage is not good (more on that in a sec).

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In a recent video, finance YouTuber Lena Petrova highlighted the troubling financial state of U.S. banks as they report significant losses and increase their reserves to cover a surge in loan delinquencies. With the second quarter results rolling in, it’s evident that the banking sector is under considerable strain.

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ECONOMIC LANDSCAPE: Understanding Today

By Vitaliy Katsenelson CFA

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Interest rates that stay low and actually keep declining for almost a quarter of a century slowly propagate deep into the fabric of the economy.

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Interest rates went up and refused to decline. They are high in relation to where they came from, but they look reasonable in relation to inflation, which is running about 3%.

Bulls argue that current interest rates only appear to be high in relation to the last 20 years, and they are actually low if you look at the 30 years before the turn of the century. This argument is historically accurate, but it is missing a very important point – interest rates that stay low and actually keep declining for almost a quarter of a century slowly propagate deep into the fabric of the economy.

Let me try this analogy.

HERE: Understanding Today’s Economic Landscape

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ECONOMICS: What is the “Golden Rule” Savings Rate?

And … the Solow capital motion growth model?

[By staff reporters]

In economics, the Golden Rule savings rate is the rate of savings which maximizes steady state level or growth of consumption, as for example in the Solow growth model.

Although the concept can be found earlier in John von Neumann and Maurice Allais‘s works, the term is generally attributed to Edmund Phelps who wrote in 1961 that the golden rule “do unto others as you would have them do unto you” could be applied inter-generationally inside the model to arrive at some form of “optimum“, or put simply “do unto future generations as we hope previous generations did unto us.”

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The Solow growth model

In the Solow growth model, a steady state savings rate of 100% implies that all income is going to investment capital for future production, implying a steady state consumption level of zero. A savings rate of 0% implies that no new investment capital is being created, so that the capital stock depreciates without replacement. This makes a steady state unsustainable except at zero output, which again implies a consumption level of zero.

Somewhere in between is the “Golden Rule” level of savings, where the savings propensity is such that per-capita consumption is at its maximum possible constant value.

Assessment

Put another way, the golden-rule capital stock relates to the highest level of permanent consumption which can be sustained.

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DAILY UPDATE: Crowdstrike Price, Banks and Healthcare

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CrowdStrike saw its share price plummet Friday, although it is still up ~24% YTD. At $74.2 billion, CrowdStrike has the second-largest market cap in the IT security industry, behind only Palo Alto Networks ($107.1 billion), and reported $900 million in revenue for the quarter ending in April, per Reuters. It’s got ~29,000 customers, which is part of why the outage caused so much havoc.

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Crowdstrike Banks: Some traders at JPMorgan Chase, UBS, Bloomberg, and other financial institutions couldn’t execute orders yesterday morning, with one unnamed senior trader telling the Financial Times that it was “the biggest upset in years.”

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Crowdstrike Healthcare: Many hospitals—including some of the largest in Europe and the US—were forced to cancel all elective operations, routine appointments, and walk-ins, and online portals for most UK general practitioners went down.

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DAILY UPDATE: Public Companies and the Stock Market Software Snafu Wraps Up Worst Week Since April

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42,500. That’s how many people died in car accidents in 2022, which experts believe was exacerbated during the Covid-19 pandemic, as reckless driving worsened and traffic enforcement decreased. (KFF)

“These attacks and breaches of data can literally mean the difference between life and death for patients, significantly impact hospital operations, and—with the average hack costing millions to address—increase healthcare prices across the board.”—Sen. Angus King about a bill he co-sponsored to improve cybersecurity in healthcare (Healthcare Dive)

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Here’s where the major benchmarks ended:

  • The S&P 500® index (SPX) dropped 39.59 points (–0.7%) to 5,505.00 and ended down 1.97% for the week, its worst weekly performance in three months; the Dow Jones Industrial Average® ($DJI) slipped 377.49 points (–0.9%) to 40,287.53 on Friday and finished up less than 1% for the week; the NASDAQ Composite® ($COMP)fell 144.28 points (–0.81%) on Friday to 17,726.94 and lost 3.65% for the week.
  • The 10-year Treasury note yield (TNX) rose four basis points to nearly 4.24% and finished up for the week, partly on worries about possible U.S. tariffs and their potential impact on inflation.
  • The CBOE Volatility Index closed at 16.47 after climbing above 17 intraday for the first time since late April.
  • Markets sagged under the weight of a massive IT outage, accentuating a selloff that was already in motion. All three indexes spent the day in the red, with the S&P 500 capping off its worst week since April and the NASDAQ snapping its six-week win streak.
  • The CBOE Volatility Index, a gauge of investor fear, rose to its highest level since April. The VIX is up over 25% in the last five days alone, as the small-cap rotation rally sputtered to a halt.
  • Oil took a big blow today as US Secretary of State Anthony Blinken said a cease-fire between Israel and Hamas is nearly complete.
  • Gold sold off as well as investors not only took profits after the commodity hit a new all-time high this week, but also began to rotate into riskier assets in light of a likely Fed rate cut.

What’s up

What’s down

  • SunPower transformed into a stock submarine, sinking 55.01% after the company made it clear it’s about to go out of business.
  • American Express fell faster than a greased pig on skates, sliding 2.68% after beating bottom line expectations but missing on revenue.
  • Plug Power turned into a lead balloon, descending 13.87% after management declared a $200 million stock offering.
  • Halliburton crumbled like a cookie, dropping 5.63% following a mixed earnings report that saw the fracking giant fall short of revenue expectations.
  • Travelers journeyed to the center of the Earth, burrowing 7.73% after beating earnings expectations, missing on revenue, and revealing that catastrophe losses came in higher than hoped.
  • Comerica sank like a stone, plummeting 10.50% due to lower net interest income last quarter and forecasts of lower interest income in the quarters ahead.

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It’s common for patients to delay or skip medical care due to high costs in the US—but data shows that fewer adults have done so in recent years.

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DAILY UPDATE: Public Companies and the Stock Market Technology Sell-Off

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The S&P 500 and NASDAQ both continued to sink under the weight of a tech selloff today, with semiconductors leading the way down. But even the Dow and Russell 2000, which have been the clear winners of the recent rally, took a beating today as investors assessed what a market rotation really means for them. 10-year Treasury yields bounced from recent lows as investors try to read between the lines of a full week of Fedspeak. Gold and oil both sold off a bit more today, though both remain near recent highs.

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What’s up

What’s down

  • Domino’s Pizza sank 13.42% after it missed earnings expectations last quarter and warned it will open fewer stores for the rest of 2024.
  • Beyond Meat tanked 10.32% on a report from the Wall Street Journal that management is in talks to restructure the company’s debt.
  • Eli Lilly slid another 6.24% as its selloff continues thanks to news that rival Roche Holdings is on its way to developing a weight-loss pill.
  • Nokia dropped 7.05% after posting its worst quarterly sales since 2015. Seems like nobody is buying phones with the shape and durability of a brick any more.

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Here’s where the major benchmarks ended:

  • The S&P 500 index fell 43.68 points (–0.78%) to 5,544.59; the Dow Jones Industrial Average® ($DJI) lost 533.06 points (–1.29%) to 40,665.02; the NASDAQ Composite gave up 125.70 points (–0.7%) to 17,871.22.
  • The 10-year Treasury note yield (TNX) rose about four basis points to 4.18%.
  • The CBOE Volatility Index climbed sharply to 15.9, its highest close since late April.

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DAILY UPDATE: UnitedHealth, Aetna, Long Covid and Physician Burnout as NASDAQ Collapses

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The Dow surged another 240 points as the cyclical rotation continues, sending the index to its 22nd record closing high of the year. The S&P 500 had its worst day since late April, while the NASDAQ slumped to its worst finish since December 2022. The last time the Dow rose on the same day the S&P 500 fell by more than 1% was all the way back in 1999. Gold hit a record high yesterday on hopes of a rate cut, not a hike. Oil bubbled up thanks to an Energy Information Administration report highlighting higher demand and lower crude inventories. Bond yields stayed steady throughout the trading session before sinking slightly 20-year Treasury bond auction.

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Here’s where the major benchmarks ended:

  • The S&P 500® index (SPX) fell 78.93 points (–1.39%) to 5,588.27; the Dow Jones Industrial Average added 243.6 points (0.59%) to 41,198.08; the NASDAQ Composite plunged 512.41 points (–2.77%) to 17,996.92.
  • The 10-year Treasury note yield (TNX) dropped just below 4.15%.
  • The CBOE Volatility Index jumped sharply to 14.48.

What’s up

  • VF Corp. rose 13.64% on the news that it is selling its Supreme brand to EssilorLuxottica for $1.5 billion.
  • Roche soared 7.55% after the Swiss pharmaceutical company announced it has made strides in developing a weight-loss and diabetes treatment that uses a pill rather than an injection. Competitors sank on the news, with Eli Lilly declining 3.78% and Novo Nordisk falling 3.87%.
  • GitLab popped 9.34% on a report that the software developer is exploring a sale, potentially to cloud company Datadog, whose shares fell 7.35%.
  • Johnson & Johnson rose a tepid 3.67% thanks to a mixed earnings announcement that included beating expectations this quarter but warning of lower profits ahead.

What’s down

  • Spirit Airlines descended 10.76% to a new all-time low after warning that both earnings and revenue will come in lower than expected this coming quarter.
  • Five Below plummeted 25.05% after its CEO, who has helmed the company for over a decade, announced his departure smack in the middle of a very difficult year.
  • J.B. Hunt tanked 6.88% thanks to a poor second-quarter earnings report in which earnings and revenue came in well below analyst expectations.
  • Charles Schwab fell yet another 5.34% as the hits keep coming. Today, the culprit was a price target downgrade from Bank of America analysts.
  • Elevance Health slipped 5.96% despite beating analyst expectations this quarter, but warning that Medicaid membership declined.

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UnitedHealth Group has bounced back in the second quarter, reaffirming its guidance for the year as it posts a profit of $4.2 billion


An audit of Aetna Health of Texas found significant errors in how the health plan calculated the qualifying payment amount for air ambulance services, raising more questions over broader noncompliance in the industry for the No Surprises Act.


And … clinical decision software company Regard pocketed $61 million in series B funding to scale its reach in healthcare as investors have a growing appetite for AI-powered startups.

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A study published in JAMA this month found that nearly 7% of the US population (or roughly 18 million people) have had long Covid. Symptoms of the condition vary widely, but often include fatigue, brain fog, and post-exertional malaise (meaning symptoms worsen after minimal exertion), according to the CDC. Booster shots may help protect against long Covid, the JAMA study suggested.

And, President Joe Biden tested positive for COVID-19 while campaigning in Las Vegas with ‘mild symptoms’.

Physician burnout is on the decline after spiking to unprecedented levels during the Covid-19 pandemic, according to a survey from professional group the American Medical Association (AMA).

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DAILY UPDATE: Apple, Macy’s, Goldman, Banks, Companies and the Roaring DJIA

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  • The Dow jumped 700 points at one point today, its biggest single-day surge this year. The S&P 500 spent the entire trading session in positive territory, ending the afternoon at another record close, while the NASDAQ was flat most of the day as tech stocks sat out the rally.
  • Bitcoin continued to surge, rising as high as $65,191 as predictions of a second Trump presidency helped erase the cryptocurrency’s recent losses.
  • Gold hit a new record as hopes of a rate hike continue to rise, while oil sank on the news of slower economic growth in China translating to lower demand for crude.
  • The Russell 2000 enjoyed its 5th straight gain of 1% or more for the first time since 1979 as small caps make their comeback (more on that below).

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Apple released public beta versions of the newest software for iPhone, Mac, iPad, and Apple Watch. Macy’s ended talks of a buyout with investment firms Arkhouse Management and Brigade Capital Management after months of wrangling. Goldman Sachs was the latest big bank to benefit from rebounding investment banking fees as deals start making a comeback.

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Despite such challenges as high interest rates, a sluggish M&A market, and increased regulatory scrutiny, bank executives are feeling optimistic about the road ahead. That’s according to KPMG’s 2024 US Banking Industry Outlook Survey, published last month, which polled 200 senior executives at US banks of varying sizes in March 2024.

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Here’s where the major benchmarks ended:

  • The S&P 500® index (SPX) rose 35.98 points (0.64%) to 5,667.20; the Dow Jones Industrial Average® ($DJI) climbed 742.76 points (1.85%) to 40,954.48; the NASDAQ Composite® ($COMP) added 36.77 points (0.2%) to 18,509.34.
  • The 10-year Treasury note yield (TNX) fell slightly to just under 4.17%.
  • The CBOE Volatility Index® (VIX) ticked up to 13.19, still near three-week highs.

What’s up

  • Match Group climbed 7.46% after activist investor Starboard Value revealed it has taken a 6.6% stake in the matchmaking company.
  • Bank of America rose 5.35% on strong earnings, and management’s expectation that the bank’s net interest income will rise this year.
  • UnitedHealth Group popped 6.49% after beating analyst earnings estimates, missing revenue expectations, and most importantly, avoided higher costs after a recent cyberattack.
  • Shopify surged 8.57% thanks to an analyst upgrade from “neutral” to “buy” on the company’s turnaround efforts. Shares of Etsy rose 6.33% in sympathy.
  • GRAIL boomed 24.76% on the news that it is kicking off the clinical trials of its new cancer detection test.
  • Home builders’ hot streak continues: Hopes of a rate cut are fueling a rally for home builder stocks, with D.R. Horton up 6.64%, Lennar rising 6.55%, KB Home gaining 7.17%, and Builders FirstSource popping 8.11%.

What’s down

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INFLATION: Update FOMC

By Staff Reporters

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Jerome Powell said the Fed won’t wait for 2% inflation to cut rates

The central bank won’t wait to hit its inflation target before bringing interest rates down but wants to have “greater confidence” that inflation will get there in order to make cuts, Powell said at the Economic Club of Washington, DC, in his first public event since June’s cooling inflation numbers came out.

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However, the FOMC chair wasn’t willing to get into specifics about when rate cuts might be coming.

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DAILY UPDATE: PBMs Scrutinized as Companies Report and Stock Markets Rotate

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Though the accountant shortage is still a concern, a shortage of AI and tech skills might be a more pressing issue right now. That’s according to a pulse survey by consulting firm RGP and YouGov, which polled 213 US financial professionals at the director level and above this June.

Read: What do you do when you hit your insurance deductible? Some people throw parties. (the New York Times)

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Here’s where the major benchmarks ended:

  • The S&P 500® index (SPX) rose 15.87 points (0.28%) to 5,631.22; the Dow Jones Industrial Average® ($DJI) climbed 210.82 points (0.53%) to 40,211.72, a new record-high close; the NASDAQ Composite® ($COMP) added 74.12 points (0.4%) to 18,472.57. 
  • The 10-year Treasury note yield (TNX) gained four basis points to just below 4.23%.
  • The CBOE Volatility Index® (VIX) increased to 13.14, its highest close since June 24.

What’s up

  • Bitcoin-related stocks rose alongside the crypto rally today, with Coinbase up 11.39% and Microstrategy climbing 15.36%.
  • Gun manufacturers always rise after a major shooting incident, and the assassination attempt on Donald Trump certainly meets that criteria. Sturm, Ruger & Company jumped 5.44%, and Smith & Wesson rose 11.38%.
  • Stelco Holdings rocketed 73.98% higher on the news that the Canadian steelmaker will be acquired by Cleveland Cliffs for $2.8 billion.
  • AutoNation popped 2.01% on the news that it’s cutting $1.50 off of its EPS for the latest quarter due to the CDK cyberattack. Apparently getting ahead of the bad news is actually good news?

What’s down

  • Macy’s sank 11.76% after the department store’s board voted to end acquisition negotiations with activist investors Arkhouse and Brigade.
  • Burberry fell 16.08% after a poor quarterly report, a profit warning, and the ousting of its CEO.
  • AES plummeted 10.01% thanks to a storm cutting power to thousands of the utility company’s customers throughout Ohio.
  • SolarEdge Technologies dropped 15.36% after the company announced it will lay off 400 employees to improve profitability. Shares of solar competitors slumped in sympathy: First Solar fell 8.50%, Sunrun sank 8.95%, and Sunnova Energy fell 9.96%.

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The Federal Trade Commission (FTC) frequently sets its sights on healthcare, which has previously included efforts to crack down on data privacy and ban noncompetes in contracts. Lately, the agency has turned its attention to pharmacy benefit managers (PBMs)—the groups that negotiate drug prices between insurers and pharmaceutical manufacturers—to shed light on how they impact the healthcare industry.

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Stat: 23.5%. That’s how much Covid-related emergency room visits increased in a week at the beginning of this month. (CDC)

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DAILY UPDATE: Delta Airlines with Stock Market Recap

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Americans are traveling in record numbers this summer, but Delta Air Lines said Thursday that it saw second-quarter profit drop 29% due to higher costs and discounting of base-level fares across the industry. The airline is also predicting a lower profit than Wall Street expects for the third quarter.

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Dramatic photos from the aftermath of the Trump shooting.

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  • Markets: Stocks swung upward finishing the week strong. The Dow closed above 40,000 for the second time ever. And, investors expect the stock market to get a jolt of volatility this week following the assassination attempt on former President Trump, and trades linked to his victory in November (such as a rising US dollar) could see an uptick. For example, Trump has fashioned himself into a pro-crypto candidate, and bitcoin spiked above $62,000 after the shooting.
  • Finance: Big banks kicked off the Q2 earnings season, with JPMorgan, Citigroup, and Wells Fargo reporting. Investment banking revenue was up as deals have started coming back, even as continued high interest rates took a toll on their loan and deposit businesses. Wells Fargo, which relies most on the businesses hit by inflation, saw its profit drop year over year. Investors are wary: All three banks’ stock fell.

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Alphabet is close to acquiring cybersecurity startup Wiz, according to the Wall Street Journal. The $23 billion purchase price would be the largest in the company’s history.

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DAILY UPDATE: Corporate Earnings, Oxendine Guilty as Stock Markets Rotate

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Here’s where the major stock market benchmarks ended:

  • The S&P 500® index (SPX) rose 30.81 points (0.5%) to 5,615.35, up 0.9% for the week; the Dow Jones Industrial Average® ($DJI) rose 247.15 points (0.6%) to 40,000.90, up 1.6% for the week; the NASDAQ Composite® ($COMP) added 115.04 points (0.6%) to 18,398.44, up 0.3% for the week. Both the SPX and $DJI set intraday record highs today.
  • The 10-year Treasury note yield closed basically unchanged just below 4.19%.
  • The CBOE Volatility Index® (VIX) fell slightly to 12.49.

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What’s up

  • Trump Media & Technology Group climbed 3.40% as President Biden’s recent stumbles seem to be breathing new life into the stock.
  • Tesla rose 2.99%, nearly recovering from yesterday’s drop over robotaxi delays, despite a UBS analyst downgrading the company to “sell.”
  • Deckers Outdoor recovered 1.14% when the board announced a 6-for-1 stock split just a few days after M Science analysts warned investors away from the company.
  • Array Technologies popped 8.69% thanks to an upgrade from Citi analysts from “neutral” to “buy” citing the company’s strong long-term prospects. Competitor Enphase Energy jumped 6.85% in sympathy.
  • Carvana soared 4.80% after BTIG analysts initiated coverage of the company with a “buy” rating and a price target 7% higher than where shares trade today.
  • Home builder stocks continued their climb today on higher hopes of rate cuts. D.R. Horton rose 2.68%, Builders FirstSource jumped 3.99%, and even Home Depot got in on the action and rose 1.70%.

What’s down

  • AT&T slid 0.21% after Ma Bell announced that hackers had stolen information about virtually every single one of the cell carrier’s customers. Shares of cybersecurity company Snowflake sank 1.74% on the news as well.
  • Delta Air Lines fell another 3.06% as turbulence throughout the airline industry continued to weigh the stock down.
  • Arbor Realty Trust plummeted 17.03% after the Justice Department announced a probe of the company due to improper lending practices.
  • Vita Coco dropped 9.07% thanks to a downgrade to “neutral” from Piper Sandler analysts. Are you telling me that a company that just sells coconut water isn’t actually worth $1.58 billion? Now that’s just vita loco!

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Here’s a list of some corporate earnings announcements next week:

  • Monday: Goldman Sachs, BlackRock.
  • Tuesday: Bank of America, Morgan Stanley, PNC Financial Services, and Charles Schwab. We’ll also hear from UnitedHealth Group, Progressive, and J.B. Hunt.
  • Wednesday: ASML, Citizens Bank, Ally Financial, Synchrony Financial, and U.S. Bancorp will wrap up the big financial names. Plus Johnson & Johnson, Kinder Morgan, United Airlines, and Alcoa.
  • Thursday: The busiest day of the week includesNetflix, Domino’s Pizza, Abbott Laboratories, Nokia, D.R. Horton, Intuitive Surgical, and much more.
  • Friday: The week wraps up with American Express, Schlumberger, and Halliburton.

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A federal judge on Friday sentenced former Georgia Insurance Commissioner John Oxendine to serve three and a half years in prison after Oxendine pleaded guilty to healthcare fraud. U.S. District Judge Steve Jones, at a hearing in Atlanta, also ordered Oxendine to pay a $25,000 fine and to share in $760,000 in restitution with Dr. Jeffrey Gallups.

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CONSUMER PRICE INDEX: Down Mid-Year 2024

INFLATION EASING

By Staff Reporters

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For the first time since May 2020, the average cost of goods and services in the US made like a remote worker with wanderlust and dipped last month, the Labor Department just reported in July 2024, bolstering confidence that inflation is easing.

Carried by softening gas and rent prices, the consumer price index (CPI) decreased 0.1% in June, beating economists’ forecasts of a 0.1% monthly increase.

  • That dip brought down the annual CPI, which also beat expectations, to record a 3% year over year gain in June—a one-year price growth low and a rate last seen in early 2021.
  • Average gas prices fell 3.8% in June, after dropping 3.6% in May.
  • Shelter prices, which account for about one-third of the CPI, only rose 0.2% in June as rents cooled. It was the category’s smallest monthly rise in three years.

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CONSUMER PRICE INDEX: What is the Elderly CPI?

The CPI-E

[By staff reporters]

We’ve written about the CPI and Chained CPI before on this ME-P.
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Q = So, what is the Elderly CPI?
A = It is experimental CPI for the elderly called the CPI-E.
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Mature Woman
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According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, or BLS, the CPI-E includes households whose reference person or spouse is 62 years of age or older.
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Risk Management, Liability Insurance, and Asset Protection Strategies for Doctors and Advisors: Best Practices from Leading Consultants and Certified Medical Planners™8Comprehensive Financial Planning Strategies for Doctors and Advisors: Best Practices from Leading Consultants and Certified Medical Planners™
***

What is the PRODUCER PRICE INDEX?

By Dr. David E. Marcinko MBA MEd CMP®

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DEFINITION: The PPI is a group of indexes that measure the change, over time, in the prices received by domestic producers of goods and services. It measures price changes from the perspective of the seller rather than the consumer, as with the CPI. The CPI would include imported goods, while the PPI is relevant to U.S. producers, and therefore would not include imports.

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The PPI measures over 10,000 products and services. It reports the price changes prior to the retail level. This information is useful to the government in formulating fiscal and monetary policies. The data gathered from the PPI is often used in escalating purchase and sales contracts. That is the dollar amount to be paid at some time in the future.

NOTE: Long-term managed medical care contracts of the future will seek escalation clauses for increases in prices.

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full report: https://www.bls.gov/news.release/pdf/ppi.pdf

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DAILY UPDATE: Pfizer, MSFT and the NASDAQ Collapse

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As drugs like Wegovy and Zepbound that help people slim down have enlarged its competitors’ bottom lines, Pfizer has struggled to keep up. But now it’s moving forward with the development of a once-daily version.

Here’s where the major benchmarks ended:

  • The S&P 500 index fell 49.37 points (0.8%) to 5,584.54; the Dow Jones Industrial Average® ($DJI) rose 32.39 points (0.1%) to 39,753.75; the NASDAQ Composite® ($COMP) collapsed and lost 364.04 points (1.95%) to 18,283.41 but remains up 22% year to date. The SPX is still up 17% this year.
  • The 10-year Treasury note yield dropped eight basis points to 4.19%.
  • The CBOE Volatility Index® (VIX) climbed to 12.99.

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  • More specifically, the S&P 500 and NASDAQ broke their winning streaks today, closing in the red for the first time in over a week—though both did hit intraday highs at one point. The Dow finished the afternoon in the green, just barely.
  • Gold breached $2,400, and is closing in on a record high of $2,449.89 set back in May.
  • Oil rose on today’s CPI news, with the idea being that if inflation slows and the Fed cuts rates then economic activity will pick up, as will demand for crude.
  • Bond yields sank on CPI data while prices rose.

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According to the Wall Street Journal, Microsoft abandoned its post as an observer on the board after realizing it was bothering antitrust officials who were looking into the relationship between the two companies. Apple, which was expected to take a similar seat on the OpenAI board, will reportedly no longer do s

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DAILY UPDATE: Tesla, PBMs, Medicare Part C and the Hot Stock Markets

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A day before the June CPI report, major indexes extended their rally amid growing demand for semiconductors and rate cut hopes.

  • The S&P 500 rose above 5,600 for the first time ever, only a few short days after breaking above 5,500, with the index hitting a new record for the last seven straight trading sessions. The NASDAQ also enjoyed a solid day as well thanks to strong performances by tech stocks, while even the Dow got in on the action and ended the session in the green.
  • Bond yields stayed almost right where they’ve been all week as investors hold their breath ahead of tomorrow’s key CPI reading.
  • Gold rose as investors hope for a strong CPI report to point the Fed toward more rate cuts, while oil rose as well thanks to a stronger-than-expected outlook on global demand from OPEC.

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The Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services (CMS) announced in June it would recalculate 2024 Medicare Advantage (MA) star ratings for all plans after two court rulings called into question the agency’s method for determining this year’s ratings. The decision is estimated to cost the federal agency roughly $1 billion in additional bonus payments for insurers, according to healthcare analytics firm Cotiviti. The move comes after several large insurers laid off employees in late 2023 after their star ratings decreased.

HIPAA: Some groups are disputing a proposed federal rule that would require hospitals to report cybersecurity incidents, saying they want it to also include insurers and third-party vendors. (Healthcare Dive)

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What’s up

  • Taiwan Semiconductor rose 3.54% after it reported that its June revenue fell 10% month over month, but its sales rose roughly 33% year over year.
  • Advanced Micro Devices popped 3.87% on the news it is acquiring Silo AI, the largest private artificial intelligence lab in Europe, for $665 million.
  • Carvana drove 4.21% higher after Needham analysts upgraded the stock from “hold” to “buy” due in part to new features at checkout highlighting EVs. Competitor CarMax jumped 6.42% in sympathy.
  • Aehr Test Systems rocketed 24.01% after the semiconductor testing equipment maker raised earnings guidance thanks to strong AI demand.
  • Smart Global Holdings rose 26.27% thanks to earnings that beat Wall Street expectations in the third quarter and a strong outlook for the rest of the year.

What’s down

  • LegalZoom plummeted 25.35% to a new all-time low after the company cut its outlook and its CEO stepped down.
  • HubSpot sank 12.24% on a report that Alphabet is no longer interested in acquiring the company.
  • Intuit dropped 2.57% on the news that the tax prep company is cutting 10% of its workforce.
  • Deckers Outdoor fell 4.86% after M Science analysts published a note cautioning that sales for key brands UGG and HOKA fell in June.
  • Ziff Davis fell 10.32% after the digital media company tried to get ahead of the bad news and pre-announced that second-quarter earnings will fall below analyst expectations.
  • Fast-casual restaurant stocks continued to sink today as investors grow more concerned about lower consumer spending and higher valuations. CAVA Group fell 5.47%, Sweetgreen dropped 1.72%, and Dutch Bros fell 4.34%.

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Tesla’s US electric car market share fell below 50% in Q2 for the first time, according to estimates by the research firm Cox Automotive.

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In a scathing report, the Federal Trade Commission accused [PBMs] pharmacy benefit managers—the companies that act as go-betweens for drug makers and consumers—of jacking up drug prices

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On Donor Advised Funds

More on DAFs

By Rick Kahler CFP®

In A Christmas Carol, Charles Dickens has a scene where two charity workers raising funds for the poor approach Ebenezer Scrooge on Christmas Eve.

” What shall I put you down for?”
   “Nothing!” Scrooge replied.
   “You wish to be anonymous?”
   “I wish to be left alone,” said Scrooge.

Scrooge may not be alone in his desire to be left alone. With 60% of Americans supporting presidential candidates’ proposals for wealth taxes, financial transaction taxes, higher capital gains tax rates, and increases in income taxes, many of our affluent neighbors are just not feeling the love this Christmas.

Nevertheless, there are still millions more who want to give. Charitable giving, though, can be more complicated than it was in Scrooge’s time. For example:

  • Are you bunching your itemized deductions into every other year and would like to give a substantial amount to charities this year, but you haven’t had time to research which charity you want to support or you want to spread the giving out over time as opposed to giving it all this month?
  • Do you support a number of charities and would like to support even more, but find the IRS requirements for documenting your gifts to be burdensome?
  • Would you like to set aside a sum of money for your favorite charities that could generate an annual income forever, but forming a foundation or charitable trust is beyond your reach?

All the above are possible with a donor-advised fund.

Let’s say you wanted to give small amounts to fifty different charities. Rather than write fifty checks and obtain fifty receipts, you can make one gift to the fund, which distributes the money to the fifty charities. You only have to provide one receipt to the IRS.

You can also make a charitable gift to the donor-advised fund that qualifies as a deduction on your 2019 tax return, but you can delay the distribution of the funds until sometime in the future. This gives you time to explore the various causes you may want to support.

What really sets a donor-advised fund apart from other types of charitable giving is that you can decide how your donations are used, much as you would if you set up your own foundation. You can even create either an endowed or a non-permanent fund for a particular purpose, such as a specifically-designated scholarship fund in memory of a loved one.

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Case Example:

One example of a donor-advised fund is the Black Hills Area Community Foundation. The BHACF supports scores of local charities and special projects. However, almost all financial institutions like Fidelity, TD Ameritrade, and Schwab have relationships with donor-advised funds.

While DAFs create an easy-to-establish, low-cost, flexible vehicle for charitable giving as an alternative to an expensive and complex private foundation, they are not hassle-free or without costs. Many charge a combination of fixed quarterly fees and an annual percentage of the undistributed funds. There is also a reasonable amount of administrative work involved. One DAF that I use assesses a penalty of $500 if the account is closed in under a year. They work best when a person anticipates significant contributions and a long-term giving plan.

Every donor-advised fund has different charities, minimums, processes, and costs, so it’s important to do your homework. Research whether the fund approves of the charities you want to support, as well as the costs involved.

Assessment

A donor advised fund may be a good way to take a large deduction this year, reduce the administrative hassles and costs of setting up a foundation, and still give to causes you choose to support.

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DAILY UPDATE: Mike Bloomberg, Arianna Huffington and Andreessen Horowitz as Stock Markets Tread Lightly

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Most medical students at Johns Hopkins University won’t have to pay tuition anymore thanks to a $1 billion gift from Michael Bloomberg.

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Here’s where the major benchmarks ended:

  • The S&P 500 index®(SPX) rose 4.13 points (0.1%) to 5,576.98; the Dow Jones Industrial Average® ($DJI) fell 52.82 points (0.1%) to 39,291.97; the NASDAQ Composite® ($COMP) climbed 25.55 points (0.1%) to 18,429.9.
  • The 10-year Treasury note yield increased two basis points to 4.29%.
  • The CBOE Volatility Index® (VIX) inched up to 12.49, still near recent lows.

What’s up

  • Tesla rose 3.71%, putting the company squarely in the green year to date as investors continue to celebrate the automaker’s strong delivery numbers.
  • Corning rose yet another 3.76%, extending the glassmaker’s gains as it quickly becomes the new hot AI stock du jour.
  • Kymera Therapeutics shot 23.40% higher after its partner Sanofi gave the go-ahead for further studies of its experimental skin disease treatment.
  • Jumia Technologies soared 29.79% after Benchmark analysts initiated coverage of the African e-commerce company with a “buy” rating.
  • Sony rose 4.46% on the news that it has nothing to do with the merger of Paramount and Skydance as shareholders celebrate dodging a Paramount-shaped bullet.

What’s down

  • Albemarle dropped 8.76% after Baird analysts warned that lower lithium demand will translate to lower profits for the miner in its upcoming second quarter.
  • BP sank 4.80% after management warned of lower-than-expected profits and a writedown of its German refining facility to the tune of up to $2 billion.
  • Helios Technologies fell 10.94% on the news that the CEO of the industrial manufacturer had been placed on paid leave for potentially violating the company’s code of ethics.
  • Helen of Troy plummeted 27.73% after the Hydro Flask maker announced terrible earnings and lowered its fiscal year outlook.
  • UiPath fell 6.90% on the announcement that the software company will cut 10% of its workforce.

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OpenAI’s venture fund and Arianna Huffington’s Thrive Global are jointly funding a new startup that aims to build an AI health coach to promote healthier lifestyles.


Function Health, a health tech company focused on preventive medicine, recently closed a series A round led by Andreessen Horowitz (a16z) Bio + Health along with a slew of celebrity investors.


And … made possible by the American Rescue Plan, the Biden administration is putting $27.5 million toward women’s behavioral health.

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Selecting Money Managers?

TRUST BUT VERIFY – CAVEAT EMPTOR

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Image result for money managers

By Clifton McIntire; CIMA, CFP® and Lisa McIntire; CIMA, CFP® 

Most physicians and healthcare executives do not manage their own portfolios, or those of their office or medical foundations. Most are more comfortable using outside money managers to make their investment decisions. Just as the general public does not have the facilities, equipment, staff, or training to make medical decisions, physicians generally do not have the time, education, infrastructure or temperament, to make their own investment decisions.

The Style Search 

The search for the right manager(s) begins with creating a “want” list. What kind of a manager do you want? Let’s say you want to find a large cap growth manager. That narrows the field considerably from the start. You are looking for a manger that does research in and understands the field of large growth companies like Microsoft, Walmart, Pfizer, Google, and AOL-Time Warner.   Jim Cowperthwait, Managing Partner of NewBridge Partners, LLC in New York City, is a “growth” manager.  Cowperthwait sums up this philosophy with the statement, “Earnings growth drives stock prices over the long-term. Therefore, we invest our clients’ money in companies whose earnings are expected to grow at 20 percent per year.  Over the long term, this should result in portfolio growth of 15 percent per year.” The other main investment “style” is “value.” 

Value managers buy stocks at a discount to some perceived value.  Generally these stocks pay above market dividend yield, are selling below market price/earnings ratios, and have a low price to cash flow ratio.  Examples of value stocks would be Exxon, Philip Morris, Dupont, and Texas Utilities.  Jim Landau of Berkeley Capital Management in San Francisco, California is a value manager. Landau says, “We look for quality companies with a consistent record of dividend increases and a stock price that is undervalued.” Other styles include the following:

  • Contrarian—invest in stocks that are out of favor or have little market interest
  • Small Cap Growth—small growing companies with high capital appreciation potential
  • Small Cap Value—companies that sell at a discount to some perceived value
  • Market timers
  • Asset Allocators
  • Sector Rotators

Fixed Income Managers 

Managers in the field of fixed income also have a variety of styles. Some are managers of municipal bond portfolios such as John Mousseau of Cumberland Advisors of Vineland, New Jersey.  George Shaffrey of Morgan Keegan & Company of Memphis, Tennessee manages a portfolio of high yielding (average rating “B”) corporate bonds.  Madison Investment Advisors of Madison, Wisconsin offers management of U.S. Government Bonds.  To limit the field even more let us establish some minimum requirements.  To begin with, the performance numbers must be in conformance with AIMR (Association for Investment Management and Research); now CFA Institute, standards.  After that, limit your search to firms with the following characteristics: 

  • Assets under management of at least $1 billion
  • Organization with at least four principals
  • Some independent research
  • Length of time in business  (at least 2 market cycles)
  • Consistent return performance
  • Control of risk well defined
  • Minimum account size within our reach

Software programs are available to screen the world of investment management and come up with a list of potential candidates. CheckFree Investment Services of Research Triangle Park, North Carolina has one of the best. Many others are available. Whether the Bank Trust Department, Private Money Manager or Personal Investment Consultant is being interviewed, here are a few of the questions that should be asked: 

  • Can I get a sample of that report?
  • What kind of performance measurement reporting do I get from you?
  • What due diligence work is done by your organization?
  • What investment/portfolio choices do I have?
  • Who is/are the portfolio manager(s)?
  • How experienced is the portfolio manager?
  • How is he/she compensated?
  • Are you showing me audited performance?
  • How has the performance been? (1, 3, 5 and 7 years)
  • Whose performance is it?  The same portfolio manager as five years ago?
  • Have other key personnel changes been made?
  • Will my account be a separate or commingled account?
  • What are the total costs?  Does that include the following:  ü       [Custody of assets?   Management fee?  Trustee fees?  Transaction fees?  Transaction costs?  Distribution fees?  Termination fees?, etc] 
  • Can I get the costs in writing with a statement that there are no additional costs?

stock-exchange

Decision Matrix 

Now decide what’s important to you in a money-manger and weight each matrix or category. Here are four useful qualities to assess each potential money-manager on the same criteria to be as objective as possible.  These areas are organization, philosophy, performance and fit with your overall plan.  Decide how much weight to assign each of these areas and then rank each manager on a scale of 1 (lowest) to 4 (highest) for each manager. 

1. Performance: 

Like some medical P4P initiatives, after installing your manager(s) you must monitor the performance to assure strict and complete conformance with your investment policy statement. You need to compare your returns with standard indexes, your return objectives, consumer price index, and Treasury Bills. It is also important to compare your results with other investment managers with similar investment style. Let’s not forget the very important capital market line analysis, which depicts the risk we experienced for the return we received; or manager expenses and portfolio size.                   

2. Capital Market Line Analysis:

Quarterly in depth analysis of the portfolio is a must. Most institutions require a formal presentation from the consultant quarterly. Your money is certainly as important to you as the fiduciary responsibility is to them. Some consultants let the report always reflect the account from the beginning. The theory is that the more data that we put in, the more accurate the statistics become, but this begins to distort the performance after the fifth year, and data going back to 1940 is not relative to current market environments. Many reports exclude numbers more than five to seven years old. 

3. Expenses:

Expenses can play an important role in performance. You don’t hear much about expense ratios in an up market. If your account was up +28 percent, whether the expense was 3 percent or 1 percent doesn’t seem to make much difference.  But let the market decline and the portfolio with it for a year and we change our perspective. A 10 percent portfolio decline plus charges of 3 percent equals a 13 percent decline.  Now we need a 15 percent increase net of fees just to get even.  Basically you have four cost areas: 

  • Custody—someone must hold the stocks and bonds, collect dividends and interest, prepare tax information for the government, issue monthly statements, and send checks.
  • Commissions—orders must be executed, transfer securities into and out of your account, trades settled.
  • Investment Decisions—the money manager must be paid.
  • Monitoring Performance and Advice—usually an investment management analyst is engaged to provide this service as well as write the investment policy statement and prepare the asset allocation study.

4. Size:

Naturally, size makes a difference. For a stock account with a $200,000 total value, all of the above can be accomplished for annual fees between 2.00 and 3.00 percent.  An account with $1,500,000 in total assets part bonds and part stocks would pay annual fees between 1.25 and 1.75 percent depending on the ratio of stocks and bonds.  These are annual fees and are all-inclusive. Commissions, portfolio management fees, and statements check charges are all included.  One quarter of the annual fee is charged every three months.  Family related accounts are generally grouped for a quantity fee discount. Most all fee structures are negotiable. Some consultants prefer to use mutual funds with smaller accounts.  A charge of 1 percent per year for their service with a stated minimal fee is common practice. This does not include fees deducted from the account by the mutual fund (anywhere from .50 to 2.50 percent) or commissions paid by the fund managers for trade executions.   

Assessment 

Remember, when considering money management, be sure to understand the ultimate fiscal consequences and your own personal liability? Always be sure to use a fiduciary consultant and let the competition for your business begin. 

Conclusion

Your thoughts and comments on this ME-P are appreciated. Feel free to review our top-left column, and top-right sidebar materials, links, URLs and related websites, too. Then, subscribe to the ME-P. It is fast, free and secure.

Speaker: If you need a moderator or speaker for an upcoming event, Dr. David E. Marcinko; MBA – Publisher-in-Chief of the Medical Executive-Post – is available for seminar or speaking engagements. Contact: MarcinkoAdvisors@msn.com

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FINANCIAL PLANNING

CAREER DEVELOPMENT

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INVESTMENT ANALYSIS

PORTFOLIO MANAGEMENT

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DAILY UPDATE: Health Insurers & Hospital Mergers with Light Stock Market Trading

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Here’s where the major benchmarks ended:

The CBOE Volatility Index® (VIX) climbed slightly to 12.37.

The S&P 500 index®(SPX) rose 5.66points (0.1%) to 5,572.85; the Dow Jones Industrial Average® ($DJI) dropped 31.08 points (0.1%) to 39,344.79; the NASDAQ Composite® ($COMP) gained 50.98 points (0.3%) to 18,403.74.

The 10-year Treasury note yield (TNX) was roughly flat at 4.27%.

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What’s up

  • Intel popped 6.15% after an analyst at Melius Research declared the company could be one of the big AI winners in the second half of this year.
  • Morphic Holding skyrocketed 75.06% on the news that Eli Lilly will acquire the drugmaker for $3.2 billion in cash.
  • SolarEdge climbed 9.26% thanks to an upgrade from “underperform” to “neutral” by Bank of America analysts, who see big upside and few downside risks ahead.
  • Corning rose 11.98% after management raised earnings guidance for the coming quarter thanks to higher demand due to the AI boom.
  • Lucid rose 7.85% on the news that its deliveries rose 70% in the second quarter.

What’s down

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Stat: 27. That’s a tally of some of the hospital mergers, acquisitions, joint ventures, affiliations, and partnerships that have been canceled since January 2022. (Becker’s Hospital Review)

Read: Health insurers received $50 billion from Medicare for diseases that doctors did not treat over three years, according to a recent analysis. (Wall Street Journal)

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HEDGE FUNDS: Understanding Fees and Costs

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DEFINITION: A Hedge fund is an investment partnership with freer rein to invest aggressively in a wider variety of financial products than most mutual funds. A hedge fund’s purpose is to pool funds, maximize investor returns, and eliminate risk with hedging strategies. Hedge funds are generally considered more aggressive, risky, and exclusive than mutual funds. The hedge fund industry has grown tremendously since its inception. There are trillions of dollars of assets under management, more than 8,800 hedge fund managers, and over 27,000 funds globally

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Many physicians and other investors — even those that meet net worth guidelines — are surprised to learn that there exists a $500 – 999 billion, or more, alternative investment industry that is not generally marketed to the public. Such alternative investments have also been known as hedge funds or private investment funds.

Unlike mutual funds, these alternative investments can be structured in a wide variety of ways. Because of the very same regulations discussed above, these funds cannot be advertised, but they are far from illegal or illicit.

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How to Monitor Hedge Funds

Four Ways to Monitor after Purchase

By Dr. David Edward Marcinko MBA, MEd, CMP™

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[Publisher-in-Chief]

Hedge funds (broadly defined as private investment vehicles that trade a variety of long and short equities, derivatives, futures contracts, and options in a variety of capital markets) have grown in size and importance in client portfolios because of superior performance, until late [2008-09 and 2022], and readily available investor capital.

Risk Factors

Physicians and clients often ask us to assess certain risk factors and a variety of investment entity structural characteristics associated with hedge funds. Accordingly, we must often be involved in discussing clients’ specific risk/return desires and expectations as they consider such investments.

Four Key Post-Investment Issues:

  1. A change in core investment strategies or risk postures from those which are documented in the investment policy statement—Among these are the specific markets to be traded, the degree of financial leverage to be employed or allowable, the underlying instruments or contracts to be used, and the investment strategies to be pursued under various conditions. Hence, there is no substitute for careful and regular assessment by the planner of changes in how and what an investment manager is trading and communication of such to the client.
  2. Use of financial leverage can dramatically increase returns just as poor performance can be accentuated—The key issue for the planner is whether a given investment manager’s use of leverage changes over the life of the hedge-fund investment, thereby possibly affecting the client’s initial desired risk/return profile.
  3. The composition of the performance return, particularly with respect to the long-term capital gain component.
  4. Asset growth—Regularly monitor and evaluate whether it is detrimental to performance and capable of causing an erosion of performance over a long-term horizon.

Assessment

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Often, after a hedge-fund investment has been made, if performance over time is good (or even adequate), both the doctor client and the financial advisors or planner may assume that there has been no material changes in investment strategy or structural characteristics that warrant attention or concern. Such changes often occur subtly over time and, if performance erodes, and the client may feel that the planner did not adequately monitor the investment. Hence the necessity for the above warning post

Note: “Post investment Issues Regarding Hedge Funds,” by Richard L. Fisher, Personal Financial Planning, November/December 1996, pp. 14–19, Warren, Gorham & Lamont, 1-800-950-1205.)

Conclusion

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DAILY UPDATE: Earnings Season, the FOMC, Threads and Boeing

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Wall Street is counting down the hours until Friday, which is when Q2 earnings season kicks off. Investors are hoping anyone besides Big Tech will post impressive results to keep the rally going. Although the stock market has set record after record this year, it’s mostly been the work of tech giants. As of Tuesday, about 40% of S&P 500 companies were in the red for 2024.

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Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell will give updates on the economy to Congress on Tuesday and Wednesday, where he’ll likely be asked about the prospect of interest rate cuts. Those plans could become clearer on Thursday, when the consumer price index inflation report drops.

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Meta’s Twitter clone, Threads, has 175 million monthly users one year after its launch, CEO Mark Zuckerberg said.

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Boeing will plead guilty to a criminal fraud charge stemming from two fatal crashes of 737 Max planes and pay an additional $243.6 million fine, allowing it to avoid a criminal trial sought by victims’ families. More here.

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OUR TAKE: Private Equity and Venture Capital

By Lon Jefferies MBA CMP™ CFP®

By Dr. David Edward Marcinko MBA CMP®

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Private equity and venture capital investments typically involve ownership of shares in a company and represent title to a portion of the company’s future earnings. However, private equity is an equity interest in a company or venture whose stock is not yet traded on a stock exchange.

Venture capital is typically a special case of private equity in which the investment is in a company or venture that has little financial history or is embarking on a high risk/high potential reward business strategy.

Like real estate, private equity and venture capital investments generally share a general lack of liquidity and a lack of comparability across different individual investments. The lack of liquidity comes from the fact that private equity and venture capital investments are typically not tradable on a stock exchange until the company has an IPO.

The lack of comparability is due to the fact that most private equity and venture capital investments are the result of direct negotiation between the investor/venture capitalist and the existing owners of the company  /venture.

With widely divergent terms and provisions across different investments, it is difficult to make general claims regarding the characteristics of private equity and venture capital investments.

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HEALTH INFORMATION TECHNOLOGY: Ransomware and Bankruptcy!

Bad things can happen in paperless practices, Doc

By Darrell Pruitt DDS

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“Illinois Hospital First To Shut Down Completely After Ransomware Attack”

-By Karl Bode for Techdirt, Jun 16th 2023.

“Such attacks can have a chain reaction on already broken hospitals and health care systems. Health care workers are sometimes forced to resort to pen and paper for patient charts and prescriptions, increasing the risk of potentially fatal error. Delays in care can also prove fatal. And ransomware is only one of the problems that plague dated medical IT systems whose repair is being made increasingly costly and difficult by medical health care system manufacturers keen on monopolizing repair.”

Remember the MCNA (Managed Care of North America) data breach that was reported by Bill Toulas in Bleeping Computer on May 29th? There have been new developments.

LINK: https://www.bleepingcomputer.com/news/security/mcna-dental-data-breach-impacts-89-million-people-after-ransomware-attack/?fbclid=IwAR29pojexxoxDrrjIbcQqAAgnw17L5xqMXGxCnnDk_ZL0-kIv2PCniVaG0Y

“Patients of a Florida-based dental insurance provider brought a proposed class action lawsuit alleging negligence over a ransomware data breach that leaked the private information of more than 8.9 million people on the dark web, saying they face a lifetime risk of having their identities stolen.”

David Minsky for Law 360

[June 16th, 2023]

If you are still using paper records, don’t change now.

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PHYSICIAN APPRAISAL ENGAGEMENTS: Investment Banking, FMV and Venture Capital

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There are a myriad of reasons for obtaining a Fair Market Value [FMV], Venture Capital [VC} and/or Investment Banking [IB] funding appraisal engagement:

  • Outright Selling-Buying
  • Partnership and Associate buy-in / buy-out
  • Mergers and Acquisitions
  • Organic growth tracking
  • Hospital integrations
  • Private and public reporting
  • Financing and Venture Capital
  • Estate and Tax Planning

And, there are many cautions, too. On July 19, 2023, the Federal Trade Commission (FTC) and the Department of Justice (DOJ) released a draft update of its Merger Guidelines, which guides the regulatory agencies in their review of both mergers and acquisitions in evaluating compliance with federal antitrust laws.

The new Guidelines replace, amend, and consolidate the Vertical Merger Guidelines and Horizontal Merger Guidelines, which were published in 2020 and 2010, respectively.

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DAILY UPDATE: Home Health and Nurse Vacancies as Stock Markets Reach New Highs

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As home hospital programs continue to grow—employment in the home health industry is projected to increase by nearly 30% by 2029—so does the concern that home healthcare professionals are increasingly vulnerable to assault and harassment.

CITE: https://www.r2library.com/Resource

Here’s where the major benchmarks ended:

  • The S&P 500 index® (SPX)rose 30.17 points (0.54%) to 5,567.19; the Dow Jones Industrial Average® ($DJI) rose 67.87 points (0.17%) to 39,375.87; the NASDAQ Composite® ($COMP) climbed 164.46 points (0.9%) to 18,352.76.
  • The 10-year Treasury note yield (TNX) dropped nearly seven basis points to just below 4.28%.
  • The CBOE Volatility Index® (VIX) increased slightly to 12.45.

What’s up

  • Meta Platforms rose 5.88% a day after CEO Mark Zuckerberg posted a video of himself wearing a tux, holding an American flag and a beer, and wakeboarding. Shareholders apparently approve of such an absolute stud running the company.
  • Koss Corp. rose another 25.68% as the latest meme stock continues to rally for no reason at all.
  • Macy’s popped 9.48% after bidders looking to acquire the beleaguered retailer raised their offer from $6.6 billion to $6.9 billion.
  • Smith & Nephew rose 6.67% on the news that activist investor Cevian Capital has taken a 5% stake in the medical device maker.
  • Instructure Holdings rose 5.25% on the news that a bidding war is building for the education software company.

What’s down

  • Nvidia fell 1.91% after it received a rare analyst downgrade due to the company’s valuation.
  • Southwest sank 5.67% on the first full trading day after the company adopted a “poison pill” to fend off activist investor Elliott Management.
  • Budget airline companies took a blow after a Raymond James analyst downgraded the industry due to a “clear as mud” outlook for the third quarter. Frontier Group fell 6.79%, while Spirit Airlines dropped 8.70%.
  • Crypto-related stocks tumbled after bitcoin fell below $54,000 at one point today, though they recovered alongside the cryptocurrency later in the trading session. Coinbase Global fell 0.56%, Robinhood Markets dropped 0.98%, and MicroStrategy fell 1.56%.

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Stat: 9.9%. That’s the current vacancy rate for nurses in the US, down from 15.7% in 2023. (2024 NSI National Health Care Retention & RN Staffing Report)

PBMs: How pharmacy benefit managers are “driving up drug costs for millions of people, employers, and the government.” (the New York Times)

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DAILY UPDATE: Non-Competes Pause as Stock Markets Rise

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Wednesday’s stock market trading was brief but sweet—the S&P 500 and NASDAQ closed at records in a half-day session. The stock market was closed yesterday for the Fourth of July, but will reopen today with all eyes on the June jobs report to be released this morning. It’s expected to show more cooling in the labor market, which would reinforce the FOMC is likely plan to cut interest rates this fall.

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A federal court temporarily paused a ban on noncompetes from taking effect in September, ruling that the FTC overstepped its authority in April when it ordered a halt to the clauses affecting 30 million Americans. The ban on noncompetes was intended to allow workers like doctors and nurses to move jobs more easily and boost wages in the process, but businesses opposed it on the grounds that competitors could poach their employees and they’d lose valuable trade secrets.

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FROM BULL: To Sideways Markets to Nvidia

By Vitaliy Katsenelson CFA

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Today I am sharing with you an excerpt from a letter I wrote to IMA clients in the winter of 2023.

I discussed my condensed views on the stock market, economy, and our investment strategy. I think it is a good overview of where we are still today, almost a year and a half later. If you’ve read it before, skip to the end, where I share my updated thoughts on the Magnificent Seven and Nvidia.

READ MORE: From Bull to Sideways Markets to Nvidia

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DAILY UPDATE: Walmart, HHS and Geriatrics as Companies and Stock Market Still Rise

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HAPPY JULY FOURTH

The S&P 500 broke above 5,500 yesterday and stayed there for the first time in market history, notching yet another all-time high for the index—its 32nd this year alone. With so much bullishness it’s understandable that investors may be wondering if we’re at the top yet, but chartists suggests gains tend to beget gains. The bulls have too much momentum to stop now—and if/when the FOMC cuts rates later this year, it seems likely that we’ll see more all-time highs in 2024? Any thoughts.

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The Biden administration has awarded $206.3 million of funding to clinician training programs across 42 universities and provider organizations to bolster the nation’s geriatrics care workforce. Programs will be able to integrate geriatrics training into primary care and will work to educate older adults’ families on their care needs. Health and Human Services, in its announcement, noted that primary care providers are a crucial source of care for much of the aging population.


As Walmart shutters its primary care clinics, the retail giant inked a deal to sell its MeMD telehealth business to health tech startup Fabric. Fabric provides a telemedicine platform for a range of customers, including provider groups, with the goal of improving the clinician and patient experience, as well as operational efficiency. The acquisition will expand its provider network, add virtual behavioral health to the company’s services and build on Fabric’s employer and payer solutions.


And…The U.S. Supreme Court has overturned the Chevron deference, stripping power from federal agencies to interpret and enforce regulations. Courts no longer have to defer to reasonable agency interpretations. One healthcare attorney told Fierce Healthcare he predicts the Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services will be under a microscope from the courts going forward, and there will be more scrutiny towards provider reimbursement cuts, drug pricing regulation and the Inflation Reduction Act.

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Here’s where the major benchmarks ended:

  • The S&P 500 index®(SPX)rose 28.01 points (0.51%) to 5,537.02; the Dow Jones Industrial Average® ($DJI) fell 23.85 points (-0.1%) to 39,308.00; the NASDAQ Composite® ($COMP) gained 159.54 points (0.9%) to 18,188.30.
  • The 10-year Treasury note yield (TNX) dropped seven basis points to 4.36%.
  • The CBOE Volatility Index® (VIX) held steady at 12.09.

What’s up

What’s down

  • First Foundation plummeted 23.81% after the bank announced it will raise $225 million to shore up a balance sheet burdened by commercial real estate loans.
  • Constellation Brands fell 3.76% after the alcoholic beverage maker reported stronger than expected earnings but missed Wall Street’s expectations on revenue.
  • Simulations Plus slid 14.87% after it reported strong third-quarter earnings but announced it’s cutting its dividend.
  • CureVac popped then dropped 6.59% after GSK bought the rights to the smaller pharma company’s Covid-19 and flu vaccines for $1.6 billion.

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JULY FOURTH WEEKEND READING LIST 2024

Happy Independence Weekend Greetings to our Readers and Subscribers for 2024

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DAILY UPDATE: Pitch-Book Health Companies, SCOTUS and the Peaking Stock Markets

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SCOTUS: Two technology company cases involving Texas and Florida laws challenging social-media companies’ content moderation were sent to lower courts. SCOTUS thus effectively granted the companies a victory. The Supreme Court isn’t willing to blow up the internet just yet.

CITE: https://www.r2library.com/Resource

PitchBook released its analysis of digital health venture capital deals done in the first quarter. The first quarter saw downturns in telehealth and digital therapeutics, but opportunities exist in mental health chatbots and care search platforms.


Amedisys, a large home health provider, plans to divest a number of care centers to an affiliate of VitalCaring Group in advance of its planned merger with UnitedHealth Group later this year.


And … ACOs may soon be able to take a breath of fresh air, as CMS shared that it has no intention of punishing them for a $2 billion urinary catheter fraud scandal that rocked the industry.  

What’s up

  • Tesla rose another 10.06% today, continuing its push higher thanks to quarterly car deliveries that beat Wall Street’s expectations. Rivian Automotive rose 6.82% today after beating projections for their own deliveries as well.
  • Paramount Global rose 5.97% on a report from the New York Times that Barry Diller’s IAC may be exploring an acquisition of the embattled entertainment company. IAC fell just 0.26%.
  • Archer Aviation popped 8.92% after the air taxi manufacturer received a $55 million investment from Stellantis.
  • Oliveda International is up 19.81% today after the olive oil company announced massive quarterly revenue growth at a key subsidiary.

What’s down

  • Chewy fell yet another 2.24% as fallout from Roaring Kitty’s stake in the company continues to rattle investors.
  • Pure Storage plunged 4.15% after UBS analysts downgraded the stock to “sell,” citing its high valuation and overhyped AI potential.
  • Home builders took a beating after Citi analysts downgraded Lennar and D.R. Horton from “neutral” to “sell,” noting the housing market will remain soft in the second half of the year. Lennar dropped 1.61%, and D.R. Horton fell 1.35%.

Here’s where the major benchmarks ended:

  • The S&P 500 index rose 33.92 points (0.62%) to 5,509.01; the Dow Jones Industrial Average® ($DJI) climbed 162.33 points (0.41%) to 39,331.85; the NASDAQ Composite® ($COMP) rallied 149.46 points (0.84%) to 18,028.76.
  • The 10-year Treasury note yield (TNX) dipped four basis points to 4.43%.
  • The CBOE Volatility Index® (VIX) dropped to 12.03 after earlier trading at its lowest intraday level since late May.

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SCOTUS: Health policy leaders say patients, providers, and health systems should brace for more uncertainty and less stability in the healthcare system. Even routine government functions such as deciding the rate to pay doctors for treating Medicare beneficiaries could become embroiled in long legal battles that disrupt patient care or strain providers to adapt.

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DAILY UPDATE: Nurses & AI, Private Equity & CPAs, Public Companies and the Hot July Stock Markets

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Private equity gets a big accounting firm yet. The March story about private equity firm New Market Capital buying a $2.8 billion stake in accounting firm Grant Thorton was a big story. Private equity is gobbling up accounting firms, signaling a potential sea change in how accounting firms will operate in the future, with “more than half” of the top 20 accounting firms in talks with private equity.

CITE: https://www.r2library.com/Resource

Here’s where the major benchmarks ended:

  • The S&P 500® index (SPX) rose 14.61 points (0.27%) to 5,475.09; the Dow Jones Industrial Average® ($DJI) climbed 50.66 points (0.13%) to 39,169.52; the NASDAQ Composite® ($COMP) added 146.70 points (0.83%) to 17,879.30.
  • The 10-year Treasury note yield (TNX) rose 12 basis points to 4.47%, the highest level since May 30 and back above its 50-day moving average, a technically important move.
  • The CBOE Volatility Index® (VIX) slipped to 12.19.

Crude oil is up sharply over the last month amid rising Middle East tensions.

What’s up

What’s down

  • Chewy stock popped then dropped 6.63% after Roaring Kitty revealed a 6.6% stake in the pet products company.
  • GameStop shares fell 5.35% after CEO Ryan Cohen posted on Twitter/X for the first time in months to advertise a job opening.
  • Uber fell 2.17% and Lyft fell 0.92% on the news that Massachusetts now requires both companies to pay rideshare drivers $32.50 an hour, plus benefits.
  • Cruise stocks sank on the news that Hurricane Beryl is stronger than expected and will disrupt service throughout the Caribbean. Norwegian Cruise Line fell 5.86%, Carnival fell 5.40%, and Royal Caribbean fell 1.86%.

CITE: https://tinyurl.com/2h47urt5

The largest nursing union in the US, National Nurses United (NNU), is sounding the alarm about the use of artificial intelligence (AI) in healthcare. In April, the union’s affiliate California Nurses Association (CNA) protested an AI conference helmed by managed care consortium Kaiser Permanente. Like workers in other sectors who are worried about AI encroachment, the nurses fear that the tech is contributing to the devaluation of their skills amid what they say is already a “chronicunderstaffing crisis, nurses reported in an NNU survey of 2,300 registered nurses and members in early 2024.

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DAILY UPDATE: Wall Street Stocks, Dow Dogs, Commodities, Gold, the Fed, Yen and Bitcoin

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If you can believe it, Friday was the final trading day of the first half of 2024. It might be a good time to reflect on your New Year’s resolutions to see how you’re measuring up halfway through the year.

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Dogs of the Dow: The 139-year-old index has never looked more its age, with components Nike, Intel, and Boeing all down more than 30% in 2024. The Dow has gained less than 4% this year.

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But, the S&P 500 gained a sublime 15% in H1, and Nvidia alone was responsible for more than a third of that gain. The maker of AI chips surged ~150% since Jan. 1st to become the most valuable company in the USA at one point.

Going into 2024, investors were expecting the Fed to cut interest rates six times. There hasn’t been a single rate cut yet, but that hasn’t stopped the S&P from notching 31 all-time closing highs, good for the second-best tally of records this century. Stocks have overcome the Fed’s delay thanks to strong earnings, a sturdy economy, and AI fever.

Commodities soar and a currency plummets. Cocoa boomed nearly 85% over shortage concerns. Gold hit a record high last month. The Japanese yen has slumped to a 38-year low against the US dollar.

Bitcoin got a boost from new ETFs, but it’s getting boring.

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NFTs 101: Taxes, Risks, and More

Randy Frederick

Nonfungible tokens have become the latest investment craze. Here’s what you need to know.

Until recently, nonfungible tokens (NFTs) were written off by many as a virtual fad and a waste of money. After all, why would someone pay $2.9 million to own the very first tweet when anyone with internet access can view it for free?

But when auction house Christie’s sold the NFT of Everydays: The First 5000 Days, a collage by the artist Beeple, for $69.3 million in March 2021, it suddenly put this emerging asset class on par with collecting a Picasso (whose heirs have jumped on the digital bandwagon by selling NFTs of the artist’s ceramics).

So, what’s all the fuss about?

The basics

Like cryptocurrencies, NFTs are stored on a blockchain, which is a digital, publicly available transaction ledger. However, while a single bitcoin can be exchanged for any other bitcoin—just as a $1 bill can be exchanged for any other $1 bill—each NFT is unique (i.e., nonfungible). In that sense, NFTs are more like the Hope Diamond or Picasso’s Guernica—a one-of-a-kind work for which there is no substitute.

Indeed, an NFT’s inherent scarcity, whether because it’s a unique piece of art or a limited-issue collectible, makes it potentially lucrative—but also substantially less liquid than, say, your average stock or bond. As a result, you may need to drop the price or hold on to your NFT if the demand isn’t there when you want or need to sell it. Other risks include:

  • Security: Like bitcoin, NFTs require a private key that functions as a password. If your key is lost or stolen, you may never again be able to access your NFT. Other security risks involve replicas that purport to be the original—as with any collectibles marketplace—and fraudulent sites designed to steal private keys and their attendant assets.
  • Taxation: Although the IRS has yet to issue specific guidance, NFTs are generally treated as collectibles. As such, if you sell an NFT you’ve held on to for less than a year, any short-term gains will be taxed as ordinary income. Any gains on an NFT held for a year or longer will be taxed at a top collectibles rate of 28%—plus a 3.8% net investment income tax if your modified adjusted gross income exceeds $200,000 ($250,000 for married couples).

Where to start

If, after careful consideration, you’re still interested in dipping your toe in NFT waters, you’ll first need to do three things:

  1. Pick a marketplace: To buy or sell NFTs, you’ll need to choose a reputable marketplace. Both Nifty Gateway and OpenSea are popular, although specialty marketplaces also exist, including ArtOfficial if you’re a fine-art collector and NBA Top Shot for basketball enthusiasts.
  2. Get a wallet: Shopping through most NFT marketplaces requires a Web3 wallet, such as MetaMask, that can store both cryptocurrencies and NFTs. Some marketplaces, like Nifty Gateway, will store your NFT, but you’ll have to pay a fee to transfer it to another wallet should you wish to do so later.
  3. Buy cryptocurrency: Some marketplaces accept payment in so-called fiat currencies, such as the U.S. dollar. However, many marketplaces are built on the Ethereum blockchain and prefer to transact in its native cryptocurrency, ether.

Tread with caution

Although the popularity of NFTs has exploded in the past year, with first-quarter sales topping $11 billion by mid-March 2022—up from $53 million for the fourth quarter of 2020—only time will tell if NFTs will realize their long-term potential or fall tragically short of it. 

Either way, it will be fascinating to see how this new form of digital authentication changes how we invest. (Ernst & Young, for example, is working on NFT-inspired technology that can help collectors track the provenance of fine wines.)

Quantum leap

NFTs experienced exponential growth in 2021.Beginning in Q3 2017, quarterly NFT trading volume remained under $20 million until jumping to $28.01 million in Q3 2020, then $52.98 million in Q4 2020. It went above $1 billion in Q1 2021 and, as of Q1 2022, has remained above $10 billion since Q3 2021.

DappRadar.com

Sales figures include only on-chain transactions conducted on the 49 NFT marketplaces that DappRadar tracks, excluding LooksRare.

*Q1 2022 data as of 03/25/2022.

ASSESSMENT

For the time being, however, there’s a lot to be said for taking a go-slow approach to this new asset class and all the risks it entails. 

In general, those interested in crypto assets like NFTs are wise to limit their exposure to no more than 1% of investable assets.

RELATED: https://www.schwab.com/learn/story/etfs-and-taxes-what-you-need-to-know?cmp=em-XCU


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DAILY UPDATE: Stock Market Review

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The S&P 500 and NASDAQ shot to record highs last week on a solid PCE reading. But all three indexes spent Friday hovering around flat levels before they all fell into the red by the end of the trading session.

Treasury yields and gold prices alike popped higher on PCE news, with traders hoping that the Fed now has good reason to cut interest rates sooner rather than later. Despite this decline, oil wrapped up a fantastic month, with prices rising for a third straight week on higher demand this summer in the US and higher risks to supply given geopolitical turmoil between Israel and Lebanon.

But, Bitcoin continued to fall, with the crypto inching closer to the all-important $60,000 price point—a line in the sand that traders are desperate not to cross for fear of further declines.

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PODCAST: Shortages in Healthcare

SUPPLY DEMAND CURVE

By Eric Bricker MD

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Are We Over-Optimizing Portfolio Asset Classes?

Too Many Other Asset Classes?

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[By Dr. David Edward Marcinko MBA MEd CMP™]Dr. David E. Marcinko MBA

Some financial analysts believe that the focus on asset classes may have gone too far as physicians and other investors have sought to “over optimize” their portfolios.

In fact, colleague David Loeper, CEO of Wealthcare Capital Management, explained this concept as follows:

“Where things have really got off track has been the insistence on breaking asset classes into sub-classes by style, market capitalization, etc. The unpredictability of all the inputs into our optimizers, even over long periods of time, has been ignored. We have attempted to take efficient portfolios of stocks, bonds and cash and make them even more efficient by breaking the unpredictable asset classes into even less predictable sub-classes. This has all been done into the pursuit of “efficiency” as the proposal was validated by the Brinson & Beebower study, which purports to find that over 90% of the investment return variance is explained by asset allocation. The risk that you produce inefficient portfolios INCREASES if you increase the number of “asset classes” for which you must forecast not only the risk and returns but also each asset class’ correlation to the others.”

Assessment

If true, and I think it is a valid point, the results of the optimizer and your resulting portfolio’s efficiency is based on the accuracy of the inputs and NOT THE NUMBER OF THE INPUTS.

Stock_Market

Or, is this like the TNTC situation in cell cultures and microbiology [Too Numerous To Count].

Conclusion

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