DAILY UPDATE: The CARES Act and the MARKETS

By Staff Reporters

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The CARES Act, a COVID relief law that was enacted in March of 2020, made it easier to pull money from one’s 401(k) or IRA It allowed people to take up to $100,000 out of their accounts and have three years to pay it back without the normal 10% early withdrawal penalty and tax payment. For Americans who needed cash quickly, their 401(k) was a tempting well to dip into that wouldn’t have been otherwise available.

In the spring of 2020, nearly 20% of all withdrawals from 401(k)’s, between April 6th and June 26th were related to COVID, according to CNBC. CNBC reported that at Fidelity Investments, the largest provider of 401(k) plans in the U.S., more than 700,000 people took from their 401(k) or their 403(b) plan. The median amount was about $5,000, while more than 18,000 people asked for the full $100,000 amount.

And Vanguard’s How America Saves report from 2021 found that more than 7% of people withdrew from their 401(k) or a 401(b) — similar to a 401(k) but available to not-for-profit companies — in 2020.

READ: https://oig.treasury.gov/cares-act

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Here is where the major indexes settled:

  • The S&P 500 Index was down 65.41 (1.6%) at 4071.63; the Dow Jones industrial average was down 344.57 (1.0%) at 33,530.83; the NASDAQ Composite was down 238.05 (2.0%) at 11,799.16.
  • The 10-year Treasury yield was down about 12 basis points at 3.394%.
  • CBOEs Volatility Index was up 1.99 at 18.92.

Transportation stocks also had a rough day after United Parcel Service’s (UPS) shares dropped some 10% after its results missed analysts’ forecasts. Energy companies were lower after WTI crude oil futures dropped under $77 a barrel for the first time this month. Small-cap companies, which are considered to have greater recession exposure than larger businesses, were also under pressure, with the Russell 2000 index falling more than 2% and nearing a five-week low.

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DAILY UPDATE: Business News Briefs Plus TESLA and the Markets

By Staff Reporters

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1. Regional banks’ plight was Morgan Stanley’s perk. The bank saw nearly $20 billion in new client assets in the wake of the banking crisis that rocked smaller banks like First Republic. Why the bank became a “destination of choice” amid the crisis.

2. Taylor Swift was the only one asking the right question on FTX. The mega star didn’t sign a $100 million sponsorship deal with the crypto exchange because, unlike seemingly everyone in Silicon Valley, she did some form of due diligence.

3. The new-age pension plan. Fidelity and State Street are rolling out annuity options within their 401(k) products, The Wall Street Journal reports. But it comes with a hefty price tag, and not everyone is sold on it.

4. It’s starting to get scary in the housing market. Foreclosure filings were up 22% in Q1 compared to last year, and repossessions are headed in the wrong direction as well.

Finally, Fintel reports that on April 21, 2023, Goldman Sachs maintained coverage of Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA) with a Buy recommendation. As of April 6th, 2023, the average one-year price target for Tesla is $203.14. The forecasts range from a low of $24.58 to a high of $315.00. The average price target represents an increase of 24.63% from its latest reported closing price of $162.99. The projected annual revenue for Tesla is $118,517MM, an increase of 37.75%. The projected annual non-GAAP EPS is $5.70.

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  • The S&P 500® Index was up 3.52 points (0.1%) at 4137.04; the Dow Jones industrial average was up 66.44 (0.2%) at 33,875.40; the NASDAQ Composite was down 35.25 (0.3%) at 12,037.20.
  • The 10-year Treasury yield was down about 7 basis points at 3.50%.
  • CBOEs Volatility Index was up 0.12 at 16.89.

Real estate and financials were among Monday’s weakest-performing sectors, while energy companies led gainers thanks to a jump of about 1% in crude oil futures. The U.S. dollar index fell to about 101.37, its weakest level since mid-April, while Treasury yields eased slightly.

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DAILY UPDATE: Jack Dorsey, Deutsche Bank and the Markets

By Staff Reporters

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Short seller Hindenburg Research has hit another billionaire’s fortune with a report. Jack Dorsey, the co-founder of payments company Block and Twitter, saw his net worth tumble by $526 million, or 11%, to $4.4 billion after the US-based research firm led by Nathan Anderson accused Block of misleading investors in a March 23 report, according to Bloomberg. Dorsey isn’t on the list of the world’s 500 richest persons on the Bloomberg Billionaires Index currently. He was previously featured at number 456 with a net worth of $5.41 billion on March 22nd, per Insider’s scan of the Index on Wednesday.

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Investors sparked a furious selloff in Deutsche Bank AG and thrust one of Europe’s most important lenders into the center of concerns about the health of the global financial system. Shares of Germany’s largest lender tumbled as much as 15%, their third consecutive day of losses, though they later regained some ground and were recently down 10%. The cost to insure against its default using credit-default swaps soared to their highest levels since 2020.

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Chairman Jerome Powell was ambiguous this week about future Federal Reserve moves, suggesting “some additional policy firming may be needed.”

Treasury yields dropped near seven-month lows, a seeming indication of escalating recession worries after the Fed raised its benchmark lending rate nine times to a range of 4.75% to 5% over the past year. The release next week of updated data on consumer confidence, inflation, and economic growth will likely be in focus.

Monetary Policy: https://medicalexecutivepost.com/2023/03/17/the-modern-us-monetary-system/

The swings in stock prices this week “were consistent with the unclear outlook for monetary policy, the banking system, and the broader economy,” says Kevin Gordon, senior investment strategist at Charles Schwab. “More time needs to pass before we know the true impact of the expected tightening in credit conditions.”

  • The S&P 500® Index was up 22.27 (0.6%) at 3970.99; the Dow Jones industrial average was up 132.28 (0.4%) at 32,237.53; the NASDAQ Composite was up 36.56 (0.3%) at 11,823.96.
  • The 10-year Treasury yield was little changed at about 3.374%.
  • CBOE’s Volatility Index was down 0.87 at 21.74.

The real estate sector led the gainers Friday, followed by consumer staples and health care. Financials and consumer discretionary stocks edged lower, and technology stocks were little changed, though the tech-focused NASDAQ Composite still notched its second straight weekly gain. Gold and crude oil futures both declined, while the U.S. dollar strengthened.

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DAILY UPDATE: Credit Suisse Down While US Equities Mixed

By Staff Reporters

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  • CREDIT SUISSE:
  • Equities revenue plummeted 95% in the fourth quarter
  • CS earlier informally looked at options for unit -sources
  • CS declined comment on ‘rumors and speculation’, and
  • In the latest piece of troubling news, the beleaguered Swiss bank delayed the publication of its 2022 annual report following a “late call” from the US Securities and Exchange Commission on Wednesday evening. The SEC got in touch over revisions the bank had previously made to its cash flow statements for 2019 and 2020,

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U.S. equities finished mixed following yesterday’s rout, as investors digested a second day of testimony from Fed Chair Jerome Powell. The Chairman remained hawkish in his commentary, where he suggested rates may need to accelerate more than initially expected and may need to stay higher for longer than originally anticipated. Adding to the uncertainty, the afternoon release of the Fed’s Beige Book showed little change from the last installment.

Treasury yields were mixed with the yield curve inversion worsening, and the U.S. dollar was flat after yesterday’s rally. Crude oil prices were lower, and gold was little changed in choppy action. News on the equity front was light, as CrowdStrike topped quarterly earnings estimates and offered upbeat guidance, while UPS reiterated its full-year outlook.

The economic calendar was tilted toward labor data, as job openings dipped but remained elevated, and ADP’s private sector employment report bested forecasts ahead of Friday’s key non-farm payroll release.

Elsewhere, mortgage applications snapped a three-week losing streak, and the trade deficit came in slightly smaller than projected. Asia finished mixed and Europe also diverged, as the global markets processed the testimony from Fed Chairman Powell.

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DAILY UPDATE: The WHO Calls for Radiology Readiness and Bonds Sell-Off

By Staff Reporters

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A new World Health Organization (WHO) report calling for an increased global preparedness for radiological and nuclear emergencies doesn’t spell out any particular current conflict, but it doesn’t need to. The world has become fully aware of the increased dangers of radiological and nuclear threats.

  • The World Health Organization’s updated list of critical medicines puts a focus on radiological and nuclear emergencies.
  • The WHO says governments need to have treatments available for citizens exposed to radiation.
  • New formulas developed in the last decade have, in part, prompted the updated guidelines from WHO.

In the just-issued report, the WHO updated its list of medicines that governments should stockpile for these types of emergencies, including medicines that “either prevent or reduce exposure to radiation or treat injuries once exposure has occurred.”

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Finally, a major sell-off in bonds sent Treasury yields higher, making stocks less attractive to investors. Last week, the major US stock indexes posted their biggest weekly losses of the year.

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DAILY UPDATE: Stocks Close Lower

By Staff Reporters

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Stocks Lower to Kick off the Week

U.S. stocks declined, continuing losses that came in the wake of a much stronger-than-expected key labor report, which caused FOMC uncertainty to flare back up. The uncertainty came as the employment data followed a decelerated rate hike, and some seemingly less hawkish commentary from the Fed.

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The economic calendar will deliver some reports today that may garner attention, including data on the trade deficit and consumer credit. Additionally, the FOMC will be headlined by today’s speech from Fed Chair Jerome Powell. Q4 earnings season remained in high gear this week, as Tyson Foods kicked things off in lackluster fashion by missing expectations.

In other equity news, Dell Technologies announced that it plans to reduce its workforce by about 5.0%, or 6,500 jobs, while Public Storage made a hostile takeover bid for Life Storage.

Treasury yields rose, and the U.S. dollar increased, along with crude oil and gold prices. Asia finished mixed, as geopolitical tensions remain elevated after the U.S. shot down what was believed to be a Chinese spy balloon floating over U.S. soil.

Additionally, markets in Europe were mostly lower, trimming some of its strong start to the year.

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DAILY UPDATE: January Job Cuts as the Technology Markets Blast Off Along with Flying Motorbikes

By Staff Reporters

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US employers in January announced the most job cuts since 2020, according to data compiled by Challenger, Gray & Christmas, Inc. Businesses reported 102,943 cuts in the month, more than twice those announced in December and up 440% from January 2022. The technology sector made up 41% of the planned reductions. Announced layoffs at retailers and financial companies also climbed from a year ago.

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Meanwhile, U.S. stocks ended the day mixed, with the S&P 500 and NASDAQ adding to yesterday’s rally that came as the Fed hiked rates by a decelerated amount and suggested that it may be nearing the end of its tightening cycle. The global markets also reacted to 50-basis point rate increases from the European Central Bank and Bank of England.

Earnings continued to pour in, with Meta Platform jumping after some upbeat guidance, and Eli Lilly and Company saw pressure after some softer-than-expected revenue growth. The economic calendar delivered some positive news, with Q4 productivity much stronger than expected and unit labor costs slowing more than anticipated, and jobless claims continued to slide, while factory orders missed estimates.

Treasury yields were unchanged, and the U.S. dollar gained ground, while crude oil and gold prices declined. Asian stocks finished mixed following the Fed’s decision, and markets in Europe were mostly higher in the wake of the monetary policy decisions in the region.

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Finally, a Japanese maker of flying motorbikes will list on the NASDAQ stock exchange and start trading in New York, making it the fifth company from the Asian nation to join the tech-heavy bourse, according to Bloomberg. Tokyo-based ALI Technologies Inc. is going public through a merger with the blank-check firm Pono Capital Corp. Under terms of the deal, ALI Technologies will become a fully owned unit of its US arm, Aerwins Technologies, the people said, asking not to be named because the information isn’t yet public. Its market cap is expected to be at least $600 million, in line with its target last year despite a market selloff. Its ticker will be AWIN. 

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DAILY UPDATE: Stocks Rise with Economic Data

By Staff Reporters

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Q4’s strong GDP numbers are raising hopes that the Fed could actually pull off the tricky “soft landing”—where it knocks down inflation through interest rate hikes without sending economic growth into reverse. The resilient labor market is cooperating: Despite all the headlines about layoffs, jobless claims fell last week to their lowest point since April 2022.

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U.S. stocks ended the day in the green as the markets digested a host of economic and earnings data. The economic calendar came in heavy today, as Q4 GDP growth was higher than expected, jobless claims unexpectedly fell, new home sales rose, and durable goods orders jumped, but dipped when stripping out the volatile component of transportation activity. Several Dow members were in focus, as IBM exceeded expectations, though its cash flow performance garnered some scrutiny on the Street, and Dow Inc. missed quarterly estimates. Fellow Dow component Chevron announced an increased dividend and a new $75.0 billion share repurchase plan, while in other news, Tesla topped quarterly estimates and offered an upbeat outlook.

Treasury yields traded mostly higher, and the U.S. dollar advanced, while crude oil prices increased, and gold moved to the downside.

Asian stocks finished mixed in lighter volume as several markets remained closed for holidays, while markets in Europe were higher for the most part, adding to the region’s strong start to the year.

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Two Year Treasury Yields = HIGH!

By Staff Reporters

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U.S. bond yields just rose to new cycle highs as the fallout from the Federal Reserve’s latest interest rate hike and commentary reverberated across markets. The policy-sensitive 2-year rate broke intermittently above 4.7%, shrinking its spread to the 10-year rate to as little as minus 60.9 basis points in a worrisome sign of the economic outlook. The 2-year yield finished the New York session at its highest level in more than 15 years.

What’s happening

  • The yield on the 2-year Treasury rose 13.1 basis points to 4.699% from 4.568% on Wednesday. Thursday’s level is the highest since July 25, 2007, based on 3 p.m. figures from Dow Jones Market Data.
  • The yield on the 10-year Treasury advanced 6.4 basis points to 4.123% from 4.059% as of late Wednesday. Thursday’s level is the highest since Oct. 24.
  • The yield on the 30-year Treasury climbed 2.9 basis points to 4.151% from 4.122% Wednesday afternoon.

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