BOARD CERTIFICATION EXAM STUDY GUIDES Lower Extremity Trauma
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Posted on September 15, 2023 by Dr. David Edward Marcinko MBA MEd CMP™
By Staff Reporters
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The forecast for next year’s Social Security increase rose to 3.2% from 3% on Wednesday after the government said inflation ticked up in August. Annual inflation in August rose to 3.7%, from 3.2% in July but off a 40-year high of 9.1% in June 2022. Without the volatile food and energy sectors, the so-called “core” inflation rate was 4.3%, down from July’s 4.7%.
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Illegal drugs are expected to be one of the biggest threats to national security in 2024 as overdose deaths topped 100,000 in the last year, according to the Department of Homeland Security’s annual threat study. In its report released Thursday, DHS said it expects illegal drugs produced in Mexico and sold in the United States will continue to kill more Americans than any other threat.
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U.S. stocks ended sharply higher and the greenback jumped on Thursday as robust economic data failed to budge expectations that the Federal Reserve will leave its key interest rate unchanged next week. The rally boosted a broad array of assets. All three major stock indexes ended higher, as did all 11 major sectors of the S&P 500. The dollar jumped to a six-month high, 10-year Treasury yields rose, and crude oil futures hit their highest this year, helping energy stocks outperform the broader market.
A spate of economic data released before the opening bell showed energy prices, specifically gasoline, were largely responsible for a hotter-than-expected producer prices print and a consensus-beating retail sales reading.
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Here is where the major benchmarks ended:
The S&P 500 Index was up 37.66 points (0.8%) at 4,505.10; the Dow Jones Industrial Average was up 331.58 points (1.0%) at 34,907.11; the NASDAQ Composite (COMP) was up 112.47 points (0.8%) at 13,926.05.The 10-year Treasury note yield (TNX) was up about 4 basis points at 4.286%. CBOE’s Volatility Index (VIX) was down 0.69 at 12.79.
Retailers were among the market’s strongest sectors Thursday in the wake of stronger-than-expected August retail sales reported by the Commerce Department. Energy companies also climbed as crude oil futures extended a rally and topped $90 a barrel for the first time since mid-November. Small-cap stocks joined the upswing, with the Russell 2000 Index (RUT) rising nearly 1.5% and ended at a one-week high. Volatility based on the VIX fell under 13.00 and near pre-pandemic levels of early 2020.
Posted on September 14, 2023 by Dr. David Edward Marcinko MBA MEd CMP™
By Staff Reporters
Yesterday was the first day of trade group America’s Health Insurance Plans 2023 Consumer Experience & Digital Health Forum, a two-day conference focused on emerging digital health innovations and how they’re changing the consumer experience of the US healthcare system.
According to Bankrate’s extensive research, the average cost of auto insurance in the U.S. is $2,014 per year. Minimum coverage, on the other hand, has an average annual cost of $622. However, car insurance is like a fingerprint. Although your circumstances may seem similar, your personalized rating factors will cause your premium to vary from that of friends, family and the national average. Still, knowing the average cost of car insurance might give you the information you need to ensure you’re not overpaying for this necessary financial protection.
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The average cost of new cars is now well over $48,000—up almost $6,000 from two years ago and about $10,000 from September 2020, according to Kelley Blue Book.
Posted on September 13, 2023 by Dr. David Edward Marcinko MBA MEd CMP™
It’s All About the [GAS] Pump!
By Staff Reporters
Inflation rose by an annual rate of 3.7% in August amid higher gasoline prices, marking the second consecutive month of rising costs.
The Consumer Price Index, which tracks a basket of goods and services typically purchased by consumers, increased 0.6% from July, the Labor Department said Thursday. On an annual basis, the increase was higher than economists’ forecast of 3.6%, according to FactSet.
Yet the so-called core CPI, which excludes volatile fuel and food costs, rose 4.3% from a year ago, matching the forecast from economists surveyed by FactSet.
By comparison, the core CPI had increased 7.3% in the past year, signaling that prices have cooled over that time.
Posted on September 3, 2023 by Dr. David Edward Marcinko MBA MEd CMP™
By Staff Reporters
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Hiring unexpectedly picked up in August as employers added 187,000 jobs despite high interest rates and inflation but totals for the prior two months were revised down sharply. The unemployment rate, which is calculated from a separate survey of households, rose from 3.5% to 3.8%, the Labor Department said Friday. That’s because of a surge of Americans into the labor force, which includes people working and looking for jobs. Economists surveyed by Bloomberg had estimated that 168,000 jobs were added.
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Stock spotlight:Dell had its best day since going public (for a second time) in 2018 after far surpassing expectations for Q2. Analysts called it an early winner in the AI boom.
Posted on August 29, 2023 by Dr. David Edward Marcinko MBA MEd CMP™
By Staff Reporters
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The dollar’s still strong—and recent earnings reports have reflected that, for better or worse.
Around this time last year, earnings took a significant forex hit. Power players like Coca-Cola and Procter & Gamble said the strong dollar hurt profits, while others, like Microsoft, cited currency fluctuations in lowered forecasts.
Back then, the dollar was at a 20-year high. In recent months, the dollar has stayed relatively high as a string of economic data suggested interest rates will stay elevated—at least for now. And after Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell suggested the Fed might have to keep raising rates, the US dollar index climbed to its highest since June 1st.
In any case, foreign exchange rates are yet again cropping up as a talking point in recent earnings reports.
Posted on August 27, 2023 by Dr. David Edward Marcinko MBA MEd CMP™
By Staff Reporters
Jerome Powell: Speaking at the Jackson Hole Symposium, an annual meeting of central bankers from around the globe at a former Wild West outpost, the FOMC chair said inflation “remains too high” and “we are prepared to raise rates further if appropriate” and to keep them high. So, why didn’t the stock market nose-dive like it did after last year’s similarly hawkish Powell speech? It helps that inflation has come down considerably since then (which Powell acknowledged) and that he nodded to the dangers of the Fed doing too much as well as too little.
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Rite Aid is preparing to file for bankruptcy in the face of costly lawsuits over its sales of opioids, the Wall Street Journal reports.
Wegovy, the weight-loss drug, also helps prevent heart failure, its maker, Novo Nordisk, said after a clinical trial.
Wells Fargoagreed to pay $35 million to settle the SEC’s claims that it overcharged fees on nearly 11,000 investment advisory accounts—claims it neither admits nor denies.
Posted on August 24, 2023 by Dr. David Edward Marcinko MBA MEd CMP™
By Staff Reporters
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Home Mortgage rates just hit their highest mark since 2002, making home ownership even less attainable to potential buyers. Stagnation in the housing market could also put a squeeze on consumer spending, slowing broader economic growth. The average 30-year fixed-rate mortgage, a popular home loan, hit 7.09% last Thursday, up from 6.96% the week before, according to mortgage behemoth the Federal Home Loan Mortgage Corporation (Freddie Mac).
In a statement tied to the release, Freddie Mac noted that the rise of the 10-year Treasury yield and the strength of the economy both contributed to the high rate.
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Here is where the major benchmarks ended:
The S&P 500® Index rose 49 points (1.1%) to 4,436.02; the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) rose 184 points (0.54%) to 34,472.98; the NASDAQ Composite (COMP) rose 215 points (1.59%) to 13,721.03.
The 10-year Treasury note yield (TNX) fell 15 basis points to 4.180%.
CBOE’s Volatility Index (VIX) fell roughly 1 point to 16.03.
Communication services—which is home to tech-adjacent companies such as Google parent Alphabet (GOOG), Facebook parent Meta (META), and Netflix (NFLX)—and technology were the top-performing sectors Wednesday.
Energy was the laggard, as crude oil futures slipped more than 1% to below $79.
Posted on August 20, 2023 by Dr. David Edward Marcinko MBA MEd CMP™
By Staff Reporters
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According to Charles Schwab, we’re heading into a bit of a data vacuum as the end of August approaches. While final August University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment and July Existing Home Sales and New Home Sales line up on next week’s calendar, the burst of numbers fades a bit and no really essential data like Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) prices and Gross Domestic Product (GDP) are due out until the week of August 28.
The absence of notable data next week could give the market a breather from the recent host of numbers suggesting the economy continues to grow faster than many economists had expected despite 17 months of Fed rate hikes.
Chances are growing that we could face another rate increase in November, the futures market suggests, and investors are dialing back the probability of rate cuts next year. The solid data was one factor helping push Treasury yields to 15-year highs late this week.
Posted on August 18, 2023 by Dr. David Edward Marcinko MBA MEd CMP™
By Staff Reporters
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Stat: 0.7%. That’s how much retail sales grew last month, a sign that inflation isn’t dampening consumer spending or demand. (CNBC)
Quote:“This is pure market economics. We do not magically have thousands of additional AI developers, product managers, and everything else.”—Paul J. Groce, partner and head of the Americas at recruitment firm Leathwaite, on how a talent shortage is driving up wages for AI positions. (the Wall Street Journal)
Read: The teetering company threatening China’s economy. (the New York Times)
Posted on August 13, 2023 by Dr. David Edward Marcinko MBA MEd CMP™
By Staff Reporters
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Markets: The NASDAQ is fading and closing lower for the second straight week for the first time all year.
Semiconductor stocks dragged the index down, but investors were also a bit fidgety over an inflation report that showed producer prices grew faster than expected last month.
Markets: Here’s hoping this week will be better than the last one for the stock market, when the S&P 500 and NASDAQ logged their worst week since March. But, yields on the 10-year Treasury note have jumped to nearly their highest level in 10+ years. This indicates that investors are betting that elevated interest rates will stick around for a while (bad for anyone looking to buy a house, but a good sign for healthy economic growth).
Inflation data: The monthly consumer price index report—a broad measure of inflation—has been retreating dramatically this year. Thursday’s reading is expected to show prices continued their cool down in July.
Berkshire Hathaway had a solid Q2. Its operating earnings jumped 6.6% thanks to a better performance from Geico, an insurer it owns. Berkshire’s cash pile has ballooned to $147 billion.
Posted on August 5, 2023 by Dr. David Edward Marcinko MBA MEd CMP™
By Staff Reporters
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Hiring roughly held steady in July as employers added 187,000 jobs despite high interest rates and inflation. The unemployment rate, which is calculated from a separate survey of households, dipped from 3.6% to 3.5%, the Labor Department said Friday. Economists surveyed by Bloomberg had estimated that 200,000 jobs were added last month.
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The geopolitics: Major oil producer Saudi Arabia said yesterday it would extend its output cuts into September and could even deepen those cuts after that, according to state media. By curbing supply, Saudi Arabia hopes to prop up the price of oil—which gives it critical revenue to spend on futuristic cities. But the cuts are angering the White House because they could lead to an uptick in US inflation.
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Apple’s sales are slumping. The iPhone-maker reported its third straight quarter of revenue declines as fewer people join the blue-text mafia. But while Apple is struggling to sell iPhones, it’s doing a great job monetizing its existing customers. The services unit—home to the App Store, Apple TV+, Apple Music, and more—hit a record $21 billion in sales. Amazon was the other Big Tech company to report earnings yesterday: Its glowing financials knocked Wall Street’s socks off.
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Here is where the major benchmarks ended for the day and week:
The S&P 500 Index ended 24 points lower (0.53%) at 4,478.03 and was down 2.27% for the week; the Dow Jones Industrial Average ended 150 points lower (0.43%) at 35,065.62 and was down 1.11% for the week; the NASDAQ Composite ended 50 points lower (0.36%) at 13,909.24 and was down nearly 3% for the week.
The 10-year Treasury note yield (TNX) pulled back 12 points to 4.055%.
CBOE’s Volatility Index (VIX) rose 1 point to 17.33.
Posted on July 27, 2023 by Dr. David Edward Marcinko MBA MEd CMP™
By Staff Reporters
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Whether we’ll see another interest rate increase soon depends on what happens between now and the Fed’s next meeting in September. Jerome Powell will be watching to see if consumer prices come down more than they already have, thanks to previous rate hikes.
There are some promising signs that the worst is behind us:
Tomorrow, when the government releases the latest personal consumption expenditures price index—the Fed’s preferred measure for tracking inflation—it’s expected to show the lowest inflation increase since the end of 2021. And last month, the consumer price index showed inflation fell to 3%, which is above the Fed’s 2% target but an improvement from last June’s 9.1%.
Meanwhile, Coca-Cola—whose prices were 10% higher last quarter compared to Q2 2022—said it’s done marking up drinks for the year, and the CFO of Unilever said the packaged goods giant’s price inflation has peaked (though prices may still get higher).
But the FOMC wants more: Chairman Powell said that for inflation to be truly conquered, the job market, which currently boasts a low unemployment rate of 3.6%, will need to slow.
Posted on July 27, 2023 by Dr. David Edward Marcinko MBA MEd CMP™
By Staff Reporters
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The Federal Reserve raised its benchmark interest rate another 0.25% on Wednesday, reviving its inflation fight despite a significant cooldown of price increases in recent months. The rate hike brought the Fed’s benchmark interest rate to a 22-year high of between 5.25% and 5.5%. Inflation has fallen significantly from a peak last summer, but remains at a level one percentage point higher than the Federal Reserve’s target of 2%.
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The Dow on Wednesday rose for a 13th straight day, matching its longest winning streak since 1987. If it closes higher today, it would be a streak not seen since 1897 — about a year after the benchmark was created — when the Dow advanced for 14 sessions in a row. During this latest run, the Dow has outperformed, gaining 5%. That momentum hasn’t been seen in the broader S&P 500 and NASDAQ Composite indexes, however. Both are up just 3% since the Dow’s streak began. The S&P 500 has fallen twice in that time, while the NASDAQ has posted three losing sessions
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Here is where the major benchmarks ended for the day:
The S&P 500 Index was down 0.02% at 4,566.75; the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) was up about 82 points (0.23%) at 35,520.12; the NASDAQ Composite was down 17 points (0.12%) at 14,127.28.
The 10-year Treasury note yield (TNX) edged down to 3.867%.
CBOE’s Volatility Index (VIX) dropped 5 points to at 13.32.
Posted on July 14, 2023 by Dr. David Edward Marcinko MBA MEd CMP™
Producer Price Index
By Staff Reporters
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Here is where the major benchmarks ended on Thursday
The S&P 500 Index was up 37.88 points (0.9%) at 4,510.04; the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) was up 47.71 points (0.1%) at 34,395.14; the NASDAQ Composite was up 219.61 points (1.6%) at 14,138.57.
The 10-year Treasury note yield (TNX) was down about 10 basis points at 3.763%.
CBOE’s Volatility Index (VIX) was up 0.04 at 13.58.
Technology shares were among the strongest performers Thursday, with the NASDAQ-100 Index (NDX) and Philadelphia Semiconductor Index (SOX) both climbing roughly 2% to 18-month highs. Communication Services and regional banks were also strong.
Oilfield services stocks gained on an extended rally in crude oil futures, which pushed above $77 a barrel near a three-month high. The U.S. dollar sank to its weakest point against the euro since February 2022 on expectations U.S. interest rates may have peaked.
Posted on July 12, 2023 by Dr. David Edward Marcinko MBA MEd CMP™
By Staff Reporters
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BofA must refund $100 million to customers, pay $90 million in penalties to the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau and $60 million to the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency. “Bank of America wrongfully withheld credit card rewards, double-dipped on fees, and opened accounts without consent,” said CFPB Director Rohit Chopra, in a statement.
“These practices are illegal and undermine customer trust.”
Combined, it is one of the highest financial penalties in years against Bank of America, which has largely spent the last 15 years trying to clean up its reputation and market itself to the public as a bank focused on financial health and not on overdraft fee income and financial trickery.
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The latest reading ion core inflation indicates a notable cool-down in June but still exceeds the Federal Reserve’s inflation target of 2%.
Data just released exceeded the expectations of economists surveyed by Bloomberg, who expected inflation to have fallen to 3.1% in June. Inflation rose a modest 0.2% on a monthly basis, accelerating from a 0.1% increase in May. Despite the encouraging report, core inflation — which strips out volatile food and energy prices — rose 4.8%.
Food prices, meanwhile, continued to accelerate faster than overall inflation, rising 5.7% in June compared to a year ago. and, the price of flour rose about 12% in June compared to a year ago, roughly quadruple of the overall inflation rate; while the price of bakery products rose 9.5% over that period and the price of cookies rose nearly 9%.
Posted on July 12, 2023 by Dr. David Edward Marcinko MBA MEd CMP™
By Staff Reporters
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American consumers are on track to run out of cash later this year, Bill Gross has warned.
Consumer spending is a key driver of economic growth. If it drops, a recession might be the result.
“Bond King” Gross said the government’s aggressive spending during the pandemic is still buoying the economy.
American consumers are propping up the economy by spending their pandemic savings, but they’re likely to run out of cash later this year, Gross warned.
“It’s fiscal policy not just monetary policy — stupid,” the billionaire investor tweeted. His point was that government spending and tax rates, along with interest rates and money supply, affect economic growth and inflation.
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Used Auto Prices Down
Used car prices in America saw the largest monthly slump since the height of the pandemic in June.
That’s good news on inflation, which could fall below 3% in June, the analyst said.
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Here is where the major benchmarks ended: yesterday
The S&P 500® Index (SPX) was up 29.73 points (0.7%) at 4,439.26; the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) was up 317.02 points (0.9%) at 34,261.42; the NASDAQ Composite (COMP) was up 75.22 points (0.6%) at 13,760.70.
The 10-year Treasury note yield (TNX) was down about 3 basis points at 3.978%.
CBOE’s Volatility Index (VIX) was down 0.23 at 14.84.
Energy companies led sector gainers Tuesday as crude oil futures extended a rally, with the benchmark WTI contract rising more than 2.5% and touching a 2½-month high on signs of lower Russian production.
The Philadelphia Oil Service Index (OSX) jumped more than 3% to a four-month high. Retail and transportation shares were also among the strongest sectors, while the health care and semiconductor sectors slipped.
Posted on July 11, 2023 by Dr. David Edward Marcinko MBA MEd CMP™
By Staff Reporters
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July marks Minority/BIPOC Mental Health Awareness Month
A time when healthcare leaders and policymakers acknowledge the disparities that exist in behavioral health access and outcomes, as well as examine ways to address them. Tell us how your company, hospital, or practice is working to eliminate barriers and ensure equitable access to mental health services.
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U.S. inflation cooled in May to an annual 4%, its lowest annual rate in more than two years, but core inflation rose by 0.4% month-on-month and 5.3% year-on-year.
And the markets are eagerly awaiting key inflation prints from the U.S. later this week, with the core annual consumer price index (CPI) — which excludes volatile food and energy prices — remaining persistently high to date, despite the headline figure gradually edging closer to the Federal Reserve‘s 2% target.
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Here is where the major benchmarks ended:
The S&P 500® Index (SPX) was up 10.58 points (0.2%) at 4,409.53; the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) was up 209.52 points (0.6%) at 33,944.40; the NASDAQ Composite (COMP) was up 24.77 points (0.2%) at 13,685.48.
The 10-year Treasury note yield (TNX) was down about 4 basis points at 4.008%.
CBOE’s Volatility Index (VIX) rose 0.21 to 15.04.
Chip stocks were among the strongest sectors Monday, with the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index (SOX), jumping about 2%.
Retail and industrial stocks were also strong, while the small-cap focused Russell 2000 index (RUT) gained 1.5%. Utilities and Communication Services ranked among the weakest performers. Volatility perked up, with the VIX touching a five-week high.
Posted on July 10, 2023 by Dr. David Edward Marcinko MBA MEd CMP™
By Staff Reporters
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Miss seeing terms like “adjusted profits” and “forward guidance” in the ME-P?
They’re coming back as earnings season got underway on Friday with big banks reporting. Tech companies, in particular, will have to impress to justify their expensive share prices.
Posted on July 9, 2023 by Dr. David Edward Marcinko MBA MEd CMP™
By Staff Reporters
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Consider this ME-P as a PSA for anyone getting married and/or preparing to send a million thank-you notes: The price of a USPS first-class “Forever” postage stamp is rising from 63 cents to 66 cents, effective tomorrow.
You don’t hear much about stamp inflation, but it’s been soaring. The price of stamps has jumped 32% since early 2019, when they cost just 50 cents. Then again, the USPS has to make up for emptier mailboxes somehow. Volume for first-class mail (which includes letters) has plunged 51% since 2006.
WHY?
Can you say e-mail, twitter, social media and text-messages, etc?
Posted on July 7, 2023 by Dr. David Edward Marcinko MBA MEd CMP™
By Staff Reporters
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The U.S. is expected to have added tens of thousands of jobs in June, continuing to defy high interest rates and stubborn inflation, But any signs of slower job and wage growth last month could signal the labor market may be cooling down.
Economists surveyed by Bloomberg project that 225,000 jobs were added to the economy in June while the unemployment rate is expected to have slipped to 3.6% – down from 3.7% the previous month. And a projected 4.2% average hourly wage bump over the previous June would be the smallest yearly uptick since 2021.
Posted on July 6, 2023 by Dr. David Edward Marcinko MBA MEd CMP™
By Staff Reporters
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[AP]:Meta is poised to unveil a new app that appears to mimic Twitter — a direct challenge to the social media platform owned by Elon Musk. A listing for the app, called Threads, just appeared on Apple’s App Store, indicating it would debut as early as today. It is billed as a “text-based conversation app” that is linked to Instagram, with the listing teasing a Twitter-like micro-blogging experience.
“Threads is where communities come together to discuss everything from the topics you care about today to what’ll be trending tomorrow,” it said.
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Here is where the major benchmarks ended:
The S&P 500 Index was down 8.77 points (0.2%) at 4,446.82; the Dow Jones Industrial Average was down 129.83 points (0.4%) at 34,288.64; the NASDAQ Composite was down 25.12 points (0.2%) at 13,791.65.
The 10-year Treasury yield (TNX) was up about 7 basis points at 3.932%.
The CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) was up 0.49 at 14.19.
Chemical makers and other materials sector companies were among the weakest performers Wednesday. Semiconductor shares were also lower, as were many energy-company shares despite a 3% surge in crude oil futures. U
Utility stocks were among the strongest performers.
Posted on July 5, 2023 by Dr. David Edward Marcinko MBA MEd CMP™
By Staff Reporters
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Here is where the major benchmarks ended on Monday:
The S&P 500 Index was up 5.21 points (0.1%) at 4,455.59; the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) was up 10.87 points at 34,418.47; the NASDAQ Composite was up 28.85 points (0.2%) at 13,816.78.
The 10-year Treasury note yield (TNX) was up about 4 basis points at 3.862%.
The CBOE Volatility Index® (VIX) was little changed at 13.58.
Financial companies had a good day Monday, with the KBW Regional Banking Index (KRX) rising more than 2%.
The consumer discretionary sector was also strong, while energy companies got a bump as crude oil futures reached their highest level in more than a week.
Health Care stocks lagged.
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Wall Street is hoping for a strong start to the second half of 2023 taking cues from the recent tech rally that has boosted the overall investor sentiment. Turning toward the U.S.-China trade war, on Monday, the mainland posed restrictions on the export of gallium and germanium to the U.S. citing national security concerns. These metals are used in semiconductor manufacturing and the curb is being used as a means of retaliation to the U.S. chip ban on China.
Remarkably, Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA) stock has been on an uphill climb lately, thanks to the growing adoption of its North American Charging Standard (NACS) charging connectors by major automakers including General Motors (NYSE:GM), Ford (NYSE:F), and Rivian (NASDAQ:RIVN). Moreover, the EV maker posted better-than-expected auto delivery and production numbers for the month and quarter ending June 30, pushing shares up 6.9% on July 3.
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Future Salaries Will Decrease?
Median incomes are projected to drop over the next few decades, falling by 0.43 percentage points per year between now and 2020, 0.52 points per year between 2020 and 2030, and 0.2 points per year between 2030 and 2040.
Although the figures on their own are not staggering, the percentage drops over time will add up significantly. By 2050, an employee who earned $50,000 in 2013 will only make $44,000. The number is even more noticeable after accounting for inflation.
Markets: Stocks ended mixed yesterday after Jerome Powell (and other major central bankers around the world) signaled that more interest rate hikes are as inevitable. In fact, Jerome Powell hinted he couldn’t rule out two rate raises in a row.
Stock spotlight: AI-chip hero Nvidia fell on reports that the US is considering even more restrictions on chip exports to China.
Posted on June 15, 2023 by Dr. David Edward Marcinko MBA MEd CMP™
By Staff Reporters
UnitedHealth Group expects to spend more of its members’ premiums on medical care in the second quarter, driven by a rise in outpatient care for Americans 65 and older in Medicare plans, CFO John Rex said Tuesday at a Goldman Sachs investor conference. Speaking at a Goldman Sachs healthcare conference, Tim Noel, CEO of UnitedHealth’s Medicare and retirement business, pointed to elevated demand for outpatient procedures from Medicare patients, per Reuters.
“We’re seeing that more seniors are just more comfortable accessing services for things that they might have pushed off a bit like knees and hips,” Noel reportedly said at the conference. The elevated demand is expected to increase the company’s second-quarter costs and premiums look set to lag spending on claims. As a result, UnitedHealth said it expects its medical loss ratio for full-year 2023 to be in the upper end of its prior outlook.
But, following the news, RBC Capital analyst Ben Hendrix reiterated UnitedHealth with an Outperform and maintained its $592 price target. Mizuho analyst Ann Hynes also reiterated UnitedHealth with a Buy and a $600 price target.
The S&P 500 Index was up 3.58 points (0.1%) at 4,372.59; the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) was down 232.79 (0.7%) at 33,979.33; the NASDAQ Composite was up 53.16 (0.4%) at 13,626.48.
The 10-year Treasury note yield (TNX) was down about 4 basis points at 3.80%.
Cboe’s Volatility Index (VIX) was down 0.74 at 13.87.
Regional banks and retail were among the weakest sectors Wednesday. The KBW Regional Banking Index (KRX) tumbled from a 14-month high earlier in the day, ending down nearly 3%. Small-caps stocks also took a hit, as the Russell 2000 Index (RUT) fell 1.2%. The U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) rebounded sharply from a four-week low, boosted by the indications rates will stay higher for longer.
Posted on June 14, 2023 by Dr. David Edward Marcinko MBA MEd CMP™
By Staff Reporters
FLAG DAY 2023
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Measured year over year, inflation slowed to just 4 per cent in May — the lowest 12-month figure in over two years and well below April’s 4.9 per cent annual rise. The pullback was driven by tumbling gas prices and smaller increases in grocery prices and other items.
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Here is where the major benchmarks ended, today:
The S&P 500® Index was up 30.08 points (0.7%) at 4,369.01; the Dow Jones industrial average was up 145.79 (0.4%) at 34,212.12; the NASDAQ Composite was up 111.40 (0.8%) at 13,573.32.
The 10-year Treasury note yield (TNX) was up about 6 basis points at 3.829%.
CBOE’s Volatility Index (VIX) was down 0.4 at 14.61.
Regional banks and oilfield services stocks led the gainers Tuesday. Crude oil futures rose 3% on expectations of stronger demand from China. Small-caps were also strong, with the Russell 2000 Index (RUT) rising more than 1% to its highest level since early March. The U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) fell to its lowest level in more than three weeks thanks to expectations interest rates could be near their peak.
Posted on June 12, 2023 by Dr. David Edward Marcinko MBA MEd CMP™
By Staff Reporters
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The US economy remains “very, very hot,” though not as much as it was six to 12 months ago, said former Treasury Secretary Lawrence Summers. “The United States is, today, an underlying 4.5-5% inflation country,” Summers said, speaking via video link at the start of the two-day Caixin Asia New Vision Forum in Singapore. At the same time, soft landings “represent the triumph of hope over experience,” and commercial real estate is one area where there are likely to be “pockets of distress,” said Professor Summers of Harvard University.
At its meeting this week, the Federal Reserve is expected to do something it hasn’t done in the last 15 months: not raise interest rates. Chair Jerome Powell suggested it might be time to take a breather as a series of rate hikes filters through the economy.
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Last week, the S&P 500 reached its fourth consecutive winning week and the NASDAQ seventh as investors find fewer things to be worried about. In a sign of that cautious optimism, Goldman Sachs slashed its probability of a recession in the next year from 35% to 25%.
Crypto: SEC Chair Gary Gensler dramatically escalated his war on crypto-currency last week, and prices took a big hit. Four of the 10 most valuable cryptocurrencies fell by at least 15%, per CoinMarketCap.
Posted on June 8, 2023 by Dr. David Edward Marcinko MBA MEd CMP™
By Staff Reporters and MGMA Survey
Physician Compensation is Rising but Not Keeping Pace with Inflation
Despite physician and advanced practice provider productivity continuing its post-pandemic recovery, compensation gains are being outstripped by the most severe inflationary growth in decades, according to a new report. Provider compensation increased across the board, with primary care physicians (PCPs) receiving the biggest increase last year. Growth in median total compensation for primary care doctors doubled from 2021 to 2022—from pay growth of 2.13% to 4.41%. But these gains were eclipsed by the rate of inflation at 7% and 6.5%, respectively.
Surgical and non-surgical specialists saw their change in median total compensation cool slightly in 2022, dropping from 3.89% for surgical specialists in 2021 to 2.54% in 2022, and from 3.12% for non-surgical physicians in 2021 to 2.36% in 2022, according to the Medical Group Management Association’s 2023 provider compensation and production report.
Posted on May 20, 2023 by Dr. David Edward Marcinko MBA MEd CMP™
By Staff Reporters
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Debt Limit: Stocks took a dive yesterday even though Jerome Powell said that interest rates may not have to rise as much as expected to quash inflation. What could loom even larger than Jerome Powell? A hiccup in negotiations over the debt ceiling raised fears about the possibility of the US defaulting. In fact, negotiations aimed at raising the nation’s debt limit resumed briefly last night after being halted for six hours during the day when Republicans broke off talks saying the White House was being unreasonable. A major sticking point was said to be the overall amount of government spending for next year as the deadline to get a deal in place to prevent an economically crippling default on June 1st draws near. Although no breakthrough came from the evening’s talks, further discussions are reportedly scheduled for later today.
Stock spotlight: Investors were about as interested in Foot Locker as an old stinky sneaker after a slowdown in sales prompted the retailer to slash its outlook for the year.
Posted on May 11, 2023 by Dr. David Edward Marcinko MBA MEd CMP™
By Staff Reporters
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Stocks were a mixed bag yesterday after the consumer price index showed prices rose 4.9% last month, marking the 10th month in a row of cooling inflation and the first time inflation has dipped below 5% in two years. That’s still higher than the Fed’s 2% target, but it leaves space for Jerome Powell to chill out a bit. Tech stocks got a boost from that news, especially Google’s parent, Alphabet, which also benefited from rolling out its new AI.
Economists polled by the Wall Street Journal had forecast the CPI increasing 0.4% and advancing 5.0% over the past year. The core inflation rate rose 0.4% in April for the second straight month, in line with economists forecasts. For the year, the core inflation rate, excluding food and energy prices, increased 5.5% down from a 5.6% rise in March.
“The below 5% headline CPI number is a sigh of relief to a market on edge,” said Alexandra Wilson-Elizondo, co-head of portfolio management for multi asset solutions at Goldman Sachs Asset Management.
Traders hoped that the lower-than-expected inflation data may leave room for the U.S. central bank to refrain from raising interest rates further at its June meeting.
“The data today will be interpreted as not hot enough to force the Fed’s hand in June … We do not think this one data point will determine the outcome of the June FOMC meeting because we still have a string of economic data to process between now and then,” wrote Wilson-Elizondo.
“The details of the print suggest that we are still a meaningful distance from the Fed’s 2% target, giving little reason for the Fed to cut this year.”
Investors priced in the Federal Reserve beginning to trim borrowing costs in coming months, a hope that is seen underpinning stocks of late and helping the S&P 500 index move towards the top of the 3,800 to 4,200 range its has held all year.
Posted on May 11, 2023 by Dr. David Edward Marcinko MBA MEd CMP™
By Staff Reporters
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Because the inflation data came in roughly as expected, Wall Street sees the door still open for the Federal Reserve to leave interest rates alone at its next meeting in June. That would be the first time it hasn’t raised rates at a meeting in more than a year, and a pause would offer some breathing room for the economy and financial markets.
Today is the last day of the US Covid-19 public health emergency, which has been in place since Jan. 31st, 2020. With it comes the end of certain Covid-era rules, though some telehealth protections have been extended through the end of 2024. Here’s to all the medical professionals who got us through, and a remembrance for the millions who lost their lives to Covid.
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Brightline, a California-based mental health startup, laid off 20% of its staff this week following a data breach. North Carolina is the latest state to consider changes to the prior authorization process that advocates say delays care. A board member at Geisinger claims that consolidation prompted the healthcare provider to sell to Kaiser Permanente. Texas Gov. Greg Abbottsaid the state should address mental health issues in the wake of a shopping mall mass shooting, but did not call for gun control reform.
Finally, here is where the major benchmarks ended yesterday:
The S&P 500 Index was up 18.47 points (0.5%) at 4137.64; the Dow Jones industrial average was down 30.48 (0.1%) at 33,531.33; the NASDAQ Composite was up 126.89 (1.0%) at 12,306.44.
The 10-year Treasury yield was down about 8 basis points at 3.441%.
CBOE’s Volatility Index was down 0.80 at 16.91.
Oilfield services providers and other energy companies were among the laggards Wednesday, pressured by a more-than 1% drop in WTI crude oil futures.
Financial sector stocks struggling to escape the effects of the bank volatility earlier this spring helped push the KWB Regional Bank Index back near a 2½-year low reached last week.
Posted on May 4, 2023 by Dr. David Edward Marcinko MBA MEd CMP™
By Staff Reporters
MAY THE FOURTH BE WITH YOU
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Many pharma companies reported earnings in the last week, and the common thread is crashing Covid-related sales.
For example, AstraZeneca’s Covid medication sales dropped $1.5b in Q1, Merck’s Covid antiviral sales fell 88% from the same quarter in 2022, and Roche’s diagnostics division sales fell 28% from Q1 2022, thanks to low Covid-test demand. Clearly, pharma companies have to figure out how to pivot their strategies in a post-Covid world.
The CDCwill not continue to track Covid-19 community spread as the country enters the endemic stage of the pandemic.
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The Food and Drug Administration approved Wednesday the first-ever vaccine to combat severe respiratory syncytial virus, or RSV. Arexvy, the new vaccine developed by GlaxoSmithKline, was approved for adults 60 and older and was 82% effective at preventing lower respiratory tract illness caused by RSV, according to trial data. It was also 94% effective in those who had at least one underlying medical condition.
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The Federal Reserve voted unanimously to raise interest rates by a quarter point yesterday, the tenth rate hike since the central bank started its battle against inflation last March. The move comes amid ongoing fragility in the banking sector triggered partly by higher interest rates, and following the collapse of three regional banks. Markets had anticipated the rate hike, and remained fairly muted after the Fed’s announcement.
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Finally, here’s where the major indexes ended up:
The S&P 500® Index was down 28.83 points at 4090.75; the Dow Jones industrial average was down 270.29 (0.8%) at 33,414.24; the NASDAQ Composite was down 55.18 (0.5%) at 12,025.33.
The 10-year Treasury yield was down about 7 basis points at 3.367%.
CBOE’s Volatility Index was up 0.52 at 18.30.
Energy companies were among the market’s weakest performers as crude oil continued a recent decline, with WTI crude futures falling more than 4% under $70 a barrel—a nearly six-week low.
Semiconductor and financial shares were also weak. The U.S. dollar index dropped sharply in the wake of the Fed announcement before rebounding.
Posted on May 3, 2023 by Dr. David Edward Marcinko MBA MEd CMP™
By Staff Reporters
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Markets: The relative calm after JPMorgan scooped up First Republic Bank lasted all of…one day. Two other West Coast lenders, PacificWest and Western Alliance, both tumbled in a sign investors still smell blood among regional banks.
Economy: Happy Fed Decision Day to all who celebrate. With inflation sizzling at still-uncomfortably high levels, Chair Jerome Powell is expected to announce the central bank’s 10th straight interest rate hike this afternoon. But many economists expect this rate increase could be the grand finale.
Layoffs jump to the highest level since late 2020. The number of job openings in the US dropped to a nearly two-year low in March, and layoffs increased to their highest point since December 2020, the Labor Department revealed yesterday. In this “bad news is good news” economic environment, the Fed will be pleased that the boiling-hot labor market is cooling off. It means less pressure on inflation and more justification to pause hiking rates.
Posted on May 2, 2023 by Dr. David Edward Marcinko MBA MEd CMP™
By Staff Reporters
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Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen warned yesterday that the US could run out of money to pay all its bills as early as June 1st if Congress does not raise or suspend the debt limit before then. The US’ first-ever default would be disastrous for financial markets, economists say.
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Meanwhile, Europe’s painful inflation has inched higher, extending the squeeze on households and keeping pressure on the European Central Bank to unleash what could be another large interest rate increase. Consumer prices in the 20 countries using the euro currency jumped 7% in April from a year earlier, just up from the annual rate of 6.9% in March, the European Union statistics agency Eurostat said today. Food price inflation eased a little, falling to an annual rate of 13.6% from March’s 15.5%, while energy prices rose a more modest 2.5%. Core inflation, which excludes volatile food and fuel, slowed slightly but was still high at 5.6%, underlining the expectation that the ECB will press ahead with its campaign to beat inflation into submission with rate hikes.
Posted on April 28, 2023 by Dr. David Edward Marcinko MBA MEd CMP™
ECONOMIC OUTPUT
By Staff Reporters
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A government report on U.S. economic output in the first quarter will shed light on how consumers and businesses are faring under high inflation, rising interest rates and the onset of banking problems. Consumer spending, the primary driver of growth, and hiring were surprisingly strong at the start of the year, but more recently slowed as the Federal Reserve continued raising interest rates to cool the economy and curb rapid price increases. TO WIT:
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Meta’s “Year of Efficiency” is off to a strong start: After three straight quarters of falling revenue last year, the company saw an uptick in ad sales for a 3% revenue jump from Q1 2022. Profits were down, but the company still beat expectations, and Facebook gained users again after losses last year. But not all of Mark Zuckerberg’s dreams are coming true—the company’s Metaverse unit lost almost $4 billion last quarter.
Chipotle—which hit near all-time highs after saying customers kept coming back for burrito bowls despite price increases.
The UK’s competition regulator blockedMicrosoft’s bid to acquire the Call of Duty-maker saying it would hurt competition in the cloud gaming sector. The move came as a shock because the regulator had previously said Microsoft had assuaged its concerns about the console gaming market. The decision, which Microsoft plans to appeal, puts a strain on the deal while the companies wait for competition decisions from the EU and the US, where the FTC has already sued to scuttle it.
Finally, while egg prices have fallen dramatically, one sector of the economy remains stubbornly expensive: rents.
In the latest consumer price index report, the shelter category (aka rents) was the largest contributor by far to overall inflation. And despite moderating in recent months, rent growth remains 17% higher than 2021 levels.
The Fed rate hikes that spelled doom for smaller fries like Silicon Valley Bank and Signature Bank were a boon to the big potatoes since they could charge more for loans. With the money they made from lending shooting up, JPMorgan, Citigroup, and Wells Fargo all zoomed past expectations for Q1.
JPMorgan, the biggest of the big, posted record revenues and saw its profits spike to $12.6 billion, 52% more than the same quarter last year.
Citigroup, the third largest US bank, scored $4.6 billion in profit, 7% higher than in Q1 2022.
Wells Fargo, the fourth largest, kept the hot streak going with a 32% increase in profits from the first quarter of ’22 to just under $5 billion.
The banking behemoths have made it through the chaos caused by the biggest bank failures since 2008 not just unscathed but stronger—though there’s some debate over whether they’ll be able to hang on to the many new deposits that came their way as customers fled from regional lenders.
But smaller banks are still struggling. And there were signs the three megabanks weren’t ready to declare total victory: They cautioned that credit is likely about to get more expensive and put aside a combined $2 billion in case a recession hits.
Posted on April 14, 2023 by Dr. David Edward Marcinko MBA MEd CMP™
By Staff Reporters
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A rally on Wall Street yesterday is lifting stocks to their highest level in almost two months following the latest sign that inflation continues to cool. Yesterday’s report showed that prices paid to producers last month were 2.7% higher than a year earlier, the lowest inflation level there in more than two years. The hope on Wall Street is that easier inflation on the wholesale level will not only support profits for companies but also flow through to cooler inflation for consumers. A day earlier, a separate report said inflation for consumers slowed to 5%.
Inflation and how high the Federal Reserve will hike interest rates to tame it have been at the center of Wall Street’s struggles for more than a year. The Fed has hiked rates at such a feverish pace over the last year that it’s already slowed parts of the economy and caused strains to appear in the banking system.
And so, stocks climbed on the cooler-than-expected PPI, and perhaps some optimism around the Q1 earnings season, with several big banks reporting Friday. However, expectations around Fed policy didn’t budge much.
Bond yields were little changed and markets still see a 70% probability of the Fed enacting a quarter-point rate increase in May, according to the CME FedWatch tool.
The following is a round-up of yesterday’s market activity:
The S&P 500 Index was up 54.27 points (1.3%) at 4146.22; the Dow Jones industrial average was up 383.19 (1.1%) at 34,029.69; the NASDAQ Composite was up 236.93 (2.0%) at 12,166.27.
The 10-year Treasury yield was up about 3 basis points at 3.447%.
Posted on April 12, 2023 by Dr. David Edward Marcinko MBA MEd CMP™
By Staff Reporters
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A closely-watched government measure of inflation is expected to show that price increases cooled further last month. March’s Consumer Price Index (CPI), slated for release today,is expected to come in at5.2%, a slowdown from February’s 6% annual gain, according to estimates from Bloomberg. The number would mark the slowest annual increase in consumer prices since May 2021 but would still be significantly above the Federal Reserve’s 2% target. The Fed has been raising interest rates to try to bring down inflation, but the central bank risks sending the economy into a recession by hiking rates too high too fast.
The following is a round-up of today’s market activity:
The S&P 500® Index was down 0.17 point at 4108.94; the Dow Jones industrial average was up 98.27 (0.3%) at 33,684.79; the NASDAQ Composite was down 52.48 (0.4%) at 12,031.88.
The 10-year Treasury yield was up about 1 basis point at 3.428%.
CBOE’s Volatility Index was up 0.12 at 19.09.
Energy companies led the gainers, with the PHLX Oil Service Index jumping nearly 2% behind strength in crude oil futures, which rallied to their highest levels since late January. The transportation and financial sectors were also strong.
The U.S. dollar weakened slightly, while gold futures climbed nearly 1% to end a three-day tumble.
Posted on April 11, 2023 by Dr. David Edward Marcinko MBA MEd CMP™
By Staff Reporters
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Starwood Capital CEO Barry Sternlicht, who has a net worth of $4.6 billion, says inflation is going to drop—and it’s going to drop hard. In an interview with CNBC’s Squawk Box, Sternlicht was asked what he’d say in response to JPMorgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon’s annual letter to shareholders, in which Dimon writes that current economic conditions “create more risk and potentially higher inflation,” and higher rate hikes.
However, after saying he’s a big fan of Dimon and that he runs “probably one of the best banks in the world,” Sternlicht clarified to CNBC that “we don’t agree on everything.”
The following is a round-up of yesterday’s market activity:
The S&P 500® Index was up 4.09 (0.1%) at 4109.11; the Dow Jones industrial average was up 101.23 (0.3%) at 33,586.52; the NASDAQ Composite was down 3.6 at 12,084.36.
The 10-year Treasury yield was up about 4 basis points at 3.419%.
CBOEs Volatility Index was up 0.54 at 18.94.
Energy and transportation were the strongest-performing S&P 500 sectors, while communications services was the biggest laggard. WTI crude oil futures fell slightly but remained near two-month highs posted last week.
Gold futures fell sharply for the second session in a row. The U.S. dollar index jumped to its strongest level in nearly two weeks.
Posted on March 22, 2023 by Dr. David Edward Marcinko MBA MEd CMP™
BREAKING NEWS!
By Staff Reporters
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Dateline: WASHINGTON—The Federal Reserve raised its key short-term interest rate by a quarter percentage point today, pushing ahead with its aggressive campaign to tame inflation despite financial turmoil following Silicon Valley Bank’s collapse.
FOMC officials forecast another quarter point in rate increases this year to a peak range of 5% to 5.25%, in line with its December estimate and lower than the level markets anticipated before SVB’s meltdown.
In a statement after a two-day meeting, the Fed acknowledged recent strains in the nation’s banks and said they will soften the economy but added the financial system is stable.
Posted on March 13, 2023 by Dr. David Edward Marcinko MBA MEd CMP™
By Staff Reporters
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Saudi Aramco made what iss probably the “highest net income ever recorded in the corporate world,” Saudi Aramco’s CEO Amin Nasser just said. The state-owned oil giant brought in an astonishing $161.1 billion in net income in 2022, up 46.5% from the previous year. Rising oil prices lifted all energy companies last year, but Aramco raked in almost triple ExxonMobil’s 2022 profits (record for any Western oil company).
So, after getting mixed signals about the economy from Friday’s jobs report, the Fed will take a fine-toothed comb to the consumer price index, which drops tomorrow.
Banks: At the end of an extremely stressful weekend, depositors of collapsed Silicon Valley Bank were told they would be made whole. Yesterday evening, the US government informed anxious SVB depositors that they’d have access to all the money they stashed with the lender today, even if the amount exceeded the $250,000 limit insured by the FDIC. In addition to backstopping depositors, the Fed is offering additional funding to some banks to limit the contagion from spreading across the banking sector.
And, according to MorningBrew, the Fed’s aggressive action shows how the implosion of Silicon Valley Bank on Friday could have quickly turned into a full-blown banking crisis when markets open this morning.
Banking is a confidence game, and if people and businesses felt their uninsured deposits were at risk, they could start pulling money from other banks in a catastrophic bank run.
The government had a hard deadline of 9:30am ET this morning to restore confidence in the banking system, and it beat it.
However, in their announcement, regulators also noted the closure of a second bank, New York-based Signature Bank, over “systemic risk.” All of Signature’s depositors will be made whole, they said.
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ALERT: HSBC Holdings PLC just said that it purchased Silicon Valley Bank UK Ltd., the U.K. arm of the collapsed Silicon Valley Bank, for 1 pound ($1.20). HSBC said the acquisition will help strengthen its franchise in the U.K. As of March 10th, SVBUK had loans of around GBP5.5 billion and deposits of around GBP6.7 billion, while tangible equity is expected to be around GBP1.4 billion. The acquisition was completed immediately.
The Bank of England said it took the decision to sell SVBUK to stabilize the business, ensure continuity of banking services, minimize disruption to the country’s technology sector and support confidence in the financial system.
Posted on February 27, 2023 by Dr. David Edward Marcinko MBA MEd CMP™
By Staff Reporters
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Twitter cuts more jobs: Just this past weekend, CEO Elon Musk laid off at least 200 workers from the company, which was about 10% of the ~2,000 employees still left at Twitter. When Musk bought the company last fall, there were roughly 7,500 people working there. Product Manager Esther Crawford was one of those let go—she had been heading up the Twitter Blue verification subscription service
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Other retailers in the spotlight: This week’s slate of earnings is all about retail. Target, Dollar Tree, Macy’s, Kroger, and others will give us an update on American consumer health in this period of ripping inflation.
Posted on February 25, 2023 by Dr. David Edward Marcinko MBA MEd CMP™
By Staff Reporters
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According to Bloomberg, former Treasury Secretary Lawrence Summers said worrying signals of a potential sharp drop-off in activity combined with strength in other indicators point toward an uncertain economic outlook.
Here is Why:
Inventories “look to be building up relative to sales.”Companies are “reporting concerns about their order books.”The business sector appears to have a high payroll head-count relative to “the level of output they’re producing.”“Consumer savings are being depleted, with a low savings rate.” And, “there is stuff when you look down the road a bit that has to be substantially concerning about the Wile E. Coyote kind of moment,” reiterating his reference to the cartoon character that falls off a cliff.
Federal Reserve policymakers will need to “stay nimble and flexible” given the uncertainty, Summers said. The central bank should “resist the pressure to be giving strong signals about what it’s going to do next.”
Finally, the former Treasury chief also reiterated the lack of past examples in which the US managed to avoid a recession when the unemployment rate dropped below 4% and inflation went above 4%. “That’s a powerful historical truth and I think it’s one that’s relevant to our current situation.”
The latest unemployment-rate reading was 3.4%, while the consumer price index climbed 6.4% in January on a year-on-year basis.
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Stocks Fell Following Hot Inflation Report and U.S. equities ended the day and week lower as the markets reacted to a Fed-favored gauge of inflation that came in hotter-than-expected. PCE and Core PCE Price Indexes rose more than anticipated, while personal income increased less than expected, and spending jumped. The moves came as equities have shown some volatility amid festering uncertainty regarding the ultimate economic impact of aggressive global central bank tightening as a result of persistent inflation. In other economic news, new home sales rose, and consumer sentiment was surprisingly revised the upside.
Treasury yields were higher, and the U.S. dollar gained ground, while crude oil prices increased, and gold traded to the downside. Q4 earnings season rounded a corner this week with some second-tier results hitting the tape, as Autodesk disappointed with its guidance and Intuit bested expectations, while Warner Bros. Discovery fell well short of forecasts.
In other equity news, shares of Boeing declined after the company paused delivery of its 787 Dreamliner planes. Asian stocks finished mixed, and markets in Europe fell, with economic data in the respective regions keeping the anxiety over future global monetary policy elevated.
Posted on February 22, 2023 by Dr. David Edward Marcinko MBA MEd CMP™
ECONOMIC PROPHETS?
By Staff Reporters
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Trying to read the economy is difficult But, some of the biggest financial institutions in the US—including JPMorgan, Bank of America, and Citigroup—will release their earnings reports for the final quarter of 2022 this morning. And they’ll share precious insight into the risk of a recession as an uncertain 2023 kicks into gear.
According to Morning Brew and others, it is because their tentacles touch so many aspects of the economy (from consumer spending via credit cards to business health via commercial loans), that they can see into areas single-sectors where others can not.
Banks are hurting. Goldman Sachs just launched its biggest cost-cutting efforts since the 2008 financial crisis, laying off 3,200 employees (or 6.5% of its entire workforce) this week. And it’s not the only one reducing headcount: Morgan Stanley and Citi are among the other global banks that have trimmed their workforce recently as business slowed due to the Fed’s rate hikes. Overall, big banks’ profits are expected to have dropped 15% in Q4 from the year before.
But it’s not all bad. Rising rates can benefit banks—as lenders, they make more money when they can charge higher interest to borrowers. Of course, banks also need to pay out interest to their depositors, too, but the gap between their lending profits and their depositor payouts (known as the “net interest margin”) is expected to widen—at least for now.
Consumer watch: Pay attention to how much banks have set aside to cover defaults on mortgage, auto, and credit card loans. That’ll give us a peek into how American consumers are dealing with inflation.
Posted on February 17, 2023 by Dr. David Edward Marcinko MBA MEd CMP™
By Staff Reporters
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Gasoline prices have unexpectedly risen in January, at a time when Americans normally stay put and demand remains relatively flat. Last week, the national average price for regular gas crept up to $3.51 a gallon, according to the American Automobile Association (AAA), jumping up by 12 cents compared to a week before and 41 cents in December. As of today, regular gas was on average $3.49 a gallon. It was a dark surprise for American consumers wary of the skyrocketing prices experienced last summer when gas reached a record height of $5.02 a gallon on average nationwide
U.S. equities declined sharply following another hotter-than-expected read on inflation, as well as hawkish commentary from Fed officials, which seemed to complicate the outlook for further monetary policy tightening. January’s Producer Price Index (PPI) came in above estimates, causing more Fed uncertainty that had already ramped up following this week’s elevated consumer inflation report, and yesterday’s much stronger-than-anticipated retail sales data. A busy day of economic data also included a lower-than-projected level of jobless claims, softer-than-forecasted housing construction activity, and an unexpected tumble in manufacturing activity out of Philadelphia.
Treasury yields were higher following the inflation report, and the U.S. dollar increased, while crude oil prices nudged lower, and gold was little changed. Q4 earnings season continued to roll on, with Dow member Cisco Systems topping forecasts, though Shopify offered disappointing revenue guidance, and Paramount missed expectations.
Asian and European stocks finished higher for the most part, as investors grappled with the U.S. inflation data and monetary policy uncertainty.
Posted on February 15, 2023 by Dr. David Edward Marcinko MBA MEd CMP™
By Staff Reporters
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Consumer price data showed it may be a long and winding road back to normal inflation levels. While inflation continued to cool last month, it did so at a slow pace (prices grew 6.4% annually, compared to 6.5% the month before).
And prices for a variety of goods and services, such as groceries and rent, continued to climb considerably. For example, egg prices in January were up 70% from the prior year.
Posted on February 15, 2023 by Dr. David Edward Marcinko MBA MEd CMP™
By Staff Reporters
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Microsoft (MSFT) ended a project that aimed to encourage the use of the Metaverse in industrial environments just four months after it was formed, according to a new report by The Information. The 100 members of the team have been laid off as the company wants to prioritize shorter-term projects over those needing longer to generate meaningful revenue.
Tech, led by Nvidia and Tesla, had it better than other sectors.
U.S. equities finished mixed, as investors digested the highly anticipated Consumer Price Index report, and its potential impact on the Fed’s future monetary policy decisions. The headline rate and core rate—excludes food and energy—both rose in line with estimates, but on a year-over-year basis inflation came in slightly hotter than expected. In other economic news, small business optimism rose slightly less than anticipated, and remained below its 48-year average for the thirteenth month in a row.
Earnings results were mixed, as Marriot International and Dow component Coca-Cola both bested EPS estimates and provided upbeat outlooks, while Restaurant Brands International missed earnings expectations, but increased its quarterly dividend.
Treasury yields were higher following the inflation data, and the U.S. dollar nudged lower, while crude oil prices fell, and gold was modestly higher in choppy trading. Asian stocks were mostly higher as markets in the region awaited the CPI report, while European stocks mostly added to its strong year-to-date gains amid the inflation data.
Posted on February 14, 2023 by Dr. David Edward Marcinko MBA MEd CMP™
By Staff Reporters
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U.S. stocks rose ahead of some key January inflation data this week, which will begin with the Consumer Price Index (CPI) report. The economic calendar was dormant today, while Q4 earnings season continued down the back stretch, as Check Point Software Technologies topped estimates and announced an increase to its share buyback plan, while Fidelity National Information Services offered disappointing guidance.
Treasury yields were mixed, and the U.S. dollar was lower, while crude oil prices gained ground, and gold traded to the downside.
Asian stocks finished mostly lower ahead of the U.S. inflation data and as tensions between the U.S. and China remained, though markets in Europe rebounded from last week’s decline.
Posted on February 13, 2023 by Dr. David Edward Marcinko MBA MEd CMP™
By Staff Reporters
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In a first-of-its-kind settlement with the SEC, the crypto exchange Kraken will stop offering crypto staking services in the US. The regulatory crackdown sent a chill across the crypto industry, since staking (crypto’s version of a high-yield savings account, as CoinDesk explains it) is a growing source of revenue for crypto platforms. Shares of Coinbase, the largest crypto exchange in the US, dropped the most since July on the news.
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The IRS is asking millions of taxpayers in 22 states including California and Colorado who received tax rebates last year to hold off on filing their taxes. Why? The agency said it is seeking to clarify whether those tax rebates and special refunds are considered taxable income. “We expect to provide additional clarity for as many states and taxpayers as possible next week,” the IRS said on February 3.
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Inflation going back up? The big economic data release of the week is Tuesday’s consumer price index report. It probably won’t be cause for celebration, because inflation is expected to have ticked back up in January. If so, it’ll fan more fears that the economy is heating up when the Fed wants it to keep cooling down.
Posted on February 6, 2023 by Dr. David Edward Marcinko MBA MEd CMP™
By Staff Reporters
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Ark Investment Management’s chief executive Cathie Wood is upbeat about her strategy of investing in young technology companies. After her exchange-traded funds dropped 60% to 80% last year from highs in 2021, Woods talked about the current stock market environment in a year-end commentary Dec. 29, 2022.
“We’re getting a lot of deflationary signals, but the Fed isn’t buying in yet,” Wood said, referring to the Federal Reserve’s continuing interest-rate increases. “But the bond market will start to convince the Fed,” Wood said. “The bond market is telegraphing much lower-than-expected inflation and/or recession.”
That prediction seemed to be validated February 1st. when the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) raised interest rates by only 25 basis points. That was smaller than the 50 basis points it had raised them by in December and the 75 basis points it had increased the rates by in each of its previous four meetings. The Fed seemed to have been recognizing the deflationary signs.
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Markets: In the five weeks of trading so far in 2023, the NASDAQ gained in all five and the S&P 500 in four. The still-booming labor market and falling inflation appear to be outweighing poor corporate earnings in investors’ minds.
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