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Wall Street is gearing up for rate cuts. Yep! Twenty months after the Federal Reserve began a historic campaign against inflation, investors now believe there is a much greater chance that the central bank will cut rates in just four months than raise them again in the foreseeable future.
Interest-rate futures indicated last week a roughly 60% chance the Fed will lower rates by a quarter-of-a-percentage point by its May 2024 policy meeting, up from 29% at the end of October, according to CME Group data. The same data has pointed to four cuts by the end of the year. And, investors, battered by the Fed’s efforts to slow the economy, have reacted by driving the S&P 500 up nearly 9% this month. That is despite the wagers reflecting different possible paths for the economy, not all of them favorable for stocks.
Of course, investors look ahead to the release this week of key US inflation data that could provide a guide for the Federal Reserve’s plans for interest rates going into the new year.
The S&P 500 Index was down 8.91 points (0.2%) at 4,550.43; theDow Jones Industrial Average® (DJI) was down 56.68 points (0.2%) at 35,333.47; the NASDAQ Composite® was down 9.83 points (0.1%) at 14,241.02.
The 10-year Treasury note yield (TNX) was down about 10 basis points at 4.387%.
CBOE Volatility Index® (VIX) was up 0.23 at 12.69.
Transportation shares were among the weakest performers Monday, and energy was also soft behind a drop in crude oil futures. Weakness in many retail stocks suggested some concern over consumer spending given high interest rates and slower job growth. The S&P Retail Select Index (SPSIRE) fell 0.6% but is still up 8.2% for the month. Consumer discretionary and real estate shares were among the few gainers.
News last week that inflation eased more than expected in October solidified the view that the Federal Reserve is done with its most aggressive rate-hike campaign in four decades. And that could be a boon for the stock market and your 401(k).
Over the last 10 rate hike cycles dating to 1974, the S&P 500 index rose an average 14.3% in the 12 months following the Fed’s final rate increase, according to an analysis by Ryan Detrick, chief market strategist at Carson Group.
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Stocksclimbed to reach their third positive week in a row for the first time since summer, boosted by data showing inflation is on its way down. And, the Gap soared as the retailer reported strong sales last quarter at both Old Navy and its namesake stores.
Posted on November 10, 2023 by Dr. David Edward Marcinko MBA MEd CMP™
By Staff Reporters
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The NYSE and the NASDAQ will follow a regular schedule on Friday, the day before Veterans Day. The U.S. bond market, which may be poised for a big comeback next year if yields continue to fall, will be open Friday as usual.
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The major indexes ended a brief winning streak after comments from Fed Chairman Jerome Powell stoked concerns over interest rates. More interest-rate hikes are still a possibility to bring inflation under control, he said. In a dramatic campaign to tamp down inflation, the Federal Reserve has raised the benchmark federal funds rate to a range of 5.25% to 5.5%, a 22-year high.
Here is where the major stock market benchmarks ended:
The S&P 500 Index was down 35.43 points (0.8%) at 4,347.35; the Dow Jones Industrial Average was down 220.33 points (0.7%) at 33,891.94; the NASDAQ Composite was down 128.97 points (0.9%) at 13,521.45.
The 10-year Treasury note yield was up about 12 basis points at 4.632%.
CBOEs Volatility Index (VIX) was up 0.84 at 15.28.
Nearly every market sector was under pressure Thursday, with consumer discretionary and health care among the weakest performers. Energy shares were an exception, thanks to a rebound in crude oil futures, though oil prices remain near the 3½-month lows touched earlier this week. The U.S. dollar index (DXY) strengthened for the fourth- straight day.
The current hiring market is slowing as the US economy added just 150,000 jobs last month. The employment gains reported by the Labor Department yesterday fell short of expectations and were almost half of the 297,000 jobs created in September. Still, there’s no need to hit the economic panic button. Though the unemployment rate ticked up slightly, to 3.9% in October, it’s been below 4% since late 2021, the longest sub-4% stretch in over 50 years. But the hiring slowdown may be a sign that the US economy is gently showing.
Now, the six-week United Auto Workers strike against the Big Three Detroit carmakers was the primary culprit in the automotive manufacturing sector shedding 33,000 people from payroll. On the flip side, healthcare, government, and construction were the top job creators, adding 58k, 51k, and 23k positions, respectively.
And, the jobs numbers were in the sweet spot for investors. Stocks posted their biggest weekly gain this year. And that’s because investors view the reduced appetite for new hires as a sign the Fed is succeeding at cooling the economy in its fight against inflation. This jobs report makes it even more likely that the FOMC will put the parking brake on its interest rate hikes, and some traders are betting that the central bank might even lower rates next year.
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And, the victims of Sam Bankman-Fried‘s financial crimes could be set to recoup almost all of the $16 billion Solana that was lost when his crypto exchange FTX collapsed – unless the IRS steps in to seize the funds instead.
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Finally, stocks closed out their best week all year after the “Goldilocks” October jobs report could put the Fed’s interest rate hikes on ice. And, Paramount pictures posted double-digit gains for the second straight session.
Posted on November 3, 2023 by Dr. David Edward Marcinko MBA MEd CMP™
By Staff Reporters
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Even though the Federal Reserve announced its interest rate decision yesterday, Jerome Powell wasn’t the government official investors were most anxious to hear from.
Instead, he was upstaged by Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen, who gave an update on the size of upcoming bond auctions. Although many were concerned about the US selling new debt into a market where interest rates are high and demand for bonds has flagged (pushing yields way up), the market liked what she had to say.
Yellenexplained that the government would focus on shorter-term notes rather than longer-term ones, which prompted a rally for 10 and 30 year bonds.
Posted on October 24, 2023 by Dr. David Edward Marcinko MBA MEd CMP™
And … Bill Gross Speaks
By Staff Reporters
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The yield on the 10-year Treasury bond shot above 5% in early trading yesterday—hitting its highest since 2007 and rattling investors—before retreating a bit so everyone could chill out. While a high return on long-term government debt sounds like something only a Wall Street wonk would fret about, it can raise borrowing costs for everyone from homebuyers to small businesses.
Treasury yields have been rising steadily for almost two years as investors kept anticipating (correctly) that Jerome Powell would raise interest rates to combat persistent inflation.
Bond yields are used as the measure against which lots of other interest rates are set, so recent sky-high yields have contributed to the current eye-popping mortgage rates, which have made homeownership 52% more expensive than renting, and they’re part of the reason why the number of Americans struggling to make car payments is at its highest since at least 1994.
Yields crossed the symbolically significant 5% mark yesterday because investors rushed to sell off 10-year bonds, making them cheaper, per supply and demand—that boosted the bond yields, since yields move in the opposite direction from price.So, why did Wall Street press “sell” on Treasurys?
It’s usually a sign of confidence in the economy, but some analysts are concerned that this time, investors are shedding government debt because they perceive the US as being a spendthrift as the deficit grows. However, the traditional psychology may also be at play: The influential billionaire investor Bill Ackman is believed to have single-handedly stopped yesterday’s bond market sell-off by saying he’d ended his bet on 30-year Treasury bond prices falling because he thinks there is “too much risk in the world” and the economy isn’t as strong as it seems. The 10-year bonds dropped back to 4.85% yesterday afternoon.
The markets are down again and stocks continued their September slump with tech companies getting hit especially hard as investors fretted about another possible Fed rate hike because of data showing prices for manufacturing and services trending upward. It was a mixed bag for the meme stock faithful, with AMC hitting an all-time low after releasing a plan to sell new shares and GameStop rising after-hours thanks to better-than-expected sales last quarter.
This all may demonstrate that private companies looking to fund growth in this high-interest rate environment are facing a tough time raising capital amidst falling valuations, according to a new Deloitte survey.
The problem is particularly acute for smaller companies. Many of the companies challenged by capital raising saw themselves putting out the “For Sale” sign within the next six months, which could lead to an M&A boom later this year.
“The No. 1 largest factor that people saw as a challenge or a barrier was a decrease in valuations of their business,” Wolfe Tone, vice chair and US and Global Deloitte Private leader, told CFO Brew. “Clearly, increasing interest rates and pricing was closely behind that. Liquidity challenges not far behind that.”
Private companies have been looking to raise capital to fund a range of growth initiatives; meeting talent needs and expanding tech capabilities are at the top of the list, Tone said. Not far behind was “increasing productivity and improving cost structures.”
Posted on September 21, 2023 by Dr. David Edward Marcinko MBA MEd CMP™
By Staff Reporters
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The Federal Reserve announced it was leaving its benchmark interest rate unchanged at a 22-year high on Wednesday but signaled it could hike rates again in its fight to bring down inflation. After a two-day meeting the Fed announced its federal funds rate would remain in a range of 5.25 to 5.5% – the same level as the central bank announced in July, when it last raised rates.
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Here is where the major benchmarks ended:
The S&P 500 Index was down 41.75 points (0.9%) at 4,402.20; the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) was down 76.85 points (0.2%) at 34,440.88; the NASDAQ Composite was down 209.06 points (1.5%) at 13,469.13.
The 10-year Treasury note yield (TNX) was up about 3 basis points at 4.393%.
CBOE’s Volatility Index (VIX) was up 1.03 at 15.14, after touching a two-week high.
Communication services and technology were among the weakest sectors Wednesday, with the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index (SOX) falling to its lowest level since late May.
Regional banks were also lower, and energy stocks slipped after crude oil futures pulled back from a recent rally. Real estate and consumer staples posted modest gains. The U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) strengthened back toward a six-month high.
Posted on September 16, 2023 by Dr. David Edward Marcinko MBA MEd CMP™
By Staff Reporters
Medicare Part B and D are likely increasing in 2024
Due to a new Alzheimer’s treatment coming to the market (Leqembi, from pharmaceutical companies Eisai and Biogen), Medicare beneficiaries are expected to pick up the cost. Therefore, Medicare Part B prices are expected to increase in 2024. The costs are projected to go up from the current $164.90 to $174.80, a nearly $10 increase per month.
While you may not see a huge difference in the amount you’re paying for Medicare Part D, it still could be slightly lower. The average total monthly Part D premium is projected to decrease from $56.49 in 2023 to $55.50 in 2024, according to the Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services (CMS). That’s nearly $10 each month.
The S&P 500 Index was down 54.78 points (1.2%) at 4,450.32, down 0.2% for the week; the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) was down 288.87 points (0.8%) at 34,618.24, up 0.1% for the week; the NASDAQ Composite was down 217.72 points (1.6%) at 13,708.33, down 0.4% for the week.
The 10-year Treasury note yield (TNX) was up about 4 basis points at 4.332%.
CBOE’s Volatility Index (VIX) was up 0.97 at 13.79.
Technology shares were among the market’s weakest performers Friday after Reuters reported Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co. (TSMC) had told its major suppliers to delay delivery of high-end chipmaking equipment because of concerns over demand.
The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index (SOX) sank more than 3% to a four-week low. Most market sectors were under pressure, including energy, despite crude oil futures extending a climb above $90 a barrel.
Posted on September 3, 2023 by Dr. David Edward Marcinko MBA MEd CMP™
By Staff Reporters
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Hiring unexpectedly picked up in August as employers added 187,000 jobs despite high interest rates and inflation but totals for the prior two months were revised down sharply. The unemployment rate, which is calculated from a separate survey of households, rose from 3.5% to 3.8%, the Labor Department said Friday. That’s because of a surge of Americans into the labor force, which includes people working and looking for jobs. Economists surveyed by Bloomberg had estimated that 168,000 jobs were added.
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Stock spotlight:Dell had its best day since going public (for a second time) in 2018 after far surpassing expectations for Q2. Analysts called it an early winner in the AI boom.
Posted on August 29, 2023 by Dr. David Edward Marcinko MBA MEd CMP™
By Staff Reporters
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The dollar’s still strong—and recent earnings reports have reflected that, for better or worse.
Around this time last year, earnings took a significant forex hit. Power players like Coca-Cola and Procter & Gamble said the strong dollar hurt profits, while others, like Microsoft, cited currency fluctuations in lowered forecasts.
Back then, the dollar was at a 20-year high. In recent months, the dollar has stayed relatively high as a string of economic data suggested interest rates will stay elevated—at least for now. And after Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell suggested the Fed might have to keep raising rates, the US dollar index climbed to its highest since June 1st.
In any case, foreign exchange rates are yet again cropping up as a talking point in recent earnings reports.
Posted on August 28, 2023 by Dr. David Edward Marcinko MBA MEd CMP™
By Staff Reporters
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Markets: Investors weren’t fazed by Jerome Powell’s warning in Jackson Hole that he could raise interest rates even more, sending the S&P 500 and NASDAQ to their first weekly gain in three weeks.
Bonds: But, all the chatter around higher rates has pushed US bond yields to decade-plus highs, which has typically been a drag on stocks.
Focus: Jerome Powell will again be poring over fresh inflation data (Thursday) and the August jobs report (Friday) to guide his next interest rate move. And we’re in stoppage time of earnings season, but a few companies, including Salesforce, Lululemon, and Dollar General, still have to report.
Posted on August 27, 2023 by Dr. David Edward Marcinko MBA MEd CMP™
By Staff Reporters
Jerome Powell: Speaking at the Jackson Hole Symposium, an annual meeting of central bankers from around the globe at a former Wild West outpost, the FOMC chair said inflation “remains too high” and “we are prepared to raise rates further if appropriate” and to keep them high. So, why didn’t the stock market nose-dive like it did after last year’s similarly hawkish Powell speech? It helps that inflation has come down considerably since then (which Powell acknowledged) and that he nodded to the dangers of the Fed doing too much as well as too little.
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Rite Aid is preparing to file for bankruptcy in the face of costly lawsuits over its sales of opioids, the Wall Street Journal reports.
Wegovy, the weight-loss drug, also helps prevent heart failure, its maker, Novo Nordisk, said after a clinical trial.
Wells Fargoagreed to pay $35 million to settle the SEC’s claims that it overcharged fees on nearly 11,000 investment advisory accounts—claims it neither admits nor denies.
Posted on August 24, 2023 by Dr. David Edward Marcinko MBA MEd CMP™
By Staff Reporters
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Home Mortgage rates just hit their highest mark since 2002, making home ownership even less attainable to potential buyers. Stagnation in the housing market could also put a squeeze on consumer spending, slowing broader economic growth. The average 30-year fixed-rate mortgage, a popular home loan, hit 7.09% last Thursday, up from 6.96% the week before, according to mortgage behemoth the Federal Home Loan Mortgage Corporation (Freddie Mac).
In a statement tied to the release, Freddie Mac noted that the rise of the 10-year Treasury yield and the strength of the economy both contributed to the high rate.
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Here is where the major benchmarks ended:
The S&P 500® Index rose 49 points (1.1%) to 4,436.02; the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) rose 184 points (0.54%) to 34,472.98; the NASDAQ Composite (COMP) rose 215 points (1.59%) to 13,721.03.
The 10-year Treasury note yield (TNX) fell 15 basis points to 4.180%.
CBOE’s Volatility Index (VIX) fell roughly 1 point to 16.03.
Communication services—which is home to tech-adjacent companies such as Google parent Alphabet (GOOG), Facebook parent Meta (META), and Netflix (NFLX)—and technology were the top-performing sectors Wednesday.
Energy was the laggard, as crude oil futures slipped more than 1% to below $79.
Posted on August 18, 2023 by Dr. David Edward Marcinko MBA MEd CMP™
By Staff Reporters
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Mortgage rates have climbed to their highest levels in 21 years, according to data released by Freddie Mac on Thursday. The 30-year fixed-rate mortgage averaged 7.09% over the week ending on Thursday, marking a significant increase from 6.96% the week prior, the data showed.
The Federal Reserve has put forward an aggressive string of interest rate hikes as it tries to slash inflation by slowing the economy and choking off demand. That means borrowers face higher costs for everything from car loans to credit card debt to mortgages.
When the Fed imposed its first rate hike of the current series in March 2022, the average 30-year fixed mortgage stood at just 4.45%, Mortgage News Daily data shows.
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Here is where the major benchmarks ended:
The S&P 500 Index was down 33.97 points (0.8%) at 4,370.36; the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) was down 290.91 points (0.8%) at 34,474.83; the NASDAQ Composite was down 157.70 points (1.2%) at 13,316.93.
The 10-year Treasury note yield (TNX) was up about 3 basis points at 4.286%.
CBOE’s Volatility Index (VIX) was up 1.22 at 18.00.
Consumer discretionary and retail were among the weakest sectors Thursday. Technology shares were also under pressure, even after Cisco Systems (CSCO) reported better-than-expected quarterly results.
Energy stocks held up somewhat better as crude oil futures rose about 1% after the Energy Department reported an unexpectedly large decline in U.S. supplies.
Posted on July 30, 2023 by Dr. David Edward Marcinko MBA MEd CMP™
By Staff Reporters
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The Fed’s favorite inflation measure fell. The personal consumption expenditures price index, a key data point for Jerome Powell and the FOMC, grew by only 3% last month compared to the previous June—its lowest annual rise since 2021.
Meanwhile, the Bureau of Labor Statistics said that the employment cost index, another favored gauge that tracks wages and benefits, also rose at its slowest rate in two years. Powell said earlier this week that central bankers will be watching the data to decide whether to raise rates again in September, and these are signs that things are moving in the direction the Federal Reserve wants.
Posted on July 28, 2023 by Dr. David Edward Marcinko MBA MEd CMP™
By Staff Reporters
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US gross domestic product (GDP) increased at a more-than-expected 2.4% annualized rate last quarter thanks to healthy consumer spending and businesses shelling out on investments. The latest figures show that not only is the US economy not spiraling into a recession due to interest rate hikes, it’s actually getting stronger as the year goes on.
In fact, underlying inflation rose at its slowest pace in two years. This could be a sign of the “soft landing” that FOMC Chair Jerome Powell seeks.
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The European Central Bank also took it a cue from the FOMC and raised interest rates to a 23-year high. Investors think it could be the ECB’s last rate hike this cycle.
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But, according to CNN, Japan’s central bank kept interest rates unchanged today despite rising inflation but hinted that it could gradually abandon years of cheap money, sending the yen soaring and stocks tumbling. The Bank of Japan (BOJ) said it kept unchanged its short-term interest rate at minus 0.1% and maintained its target for the yield on 10-year government bond at around 0%.
But the central bank also said it would adopt a more flexible approach to controlling the yield on government bonds — which affects borrowing costs across the world’s third biggest economy,diluting a key pillar of its longstanding ultra-loose monetary policy.
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After a historic 13-day winning streak, the Dow—along with the other two major indexes—closed lower as its dizzying rise finally succumbed to gravity. There were some strong individual performances, however. Meta kept its impressive 2023 rolling after giving an optimistic earnings report.
Posted on July 27, 2023 by Dr. David Edward Marcinko MBA MEd CMP™
By Staff Reporters
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Whether we’ll see another interest rate increase soon depends on what happens between now and the Fed’s next meeting in September. Jerome Powell will be watching to see if consumer prices come down more than they already have, thanks to previous rate hikes.
There are some promising signs that the worst is behind us:
Tomorrow, when the government releases the latest personal consumption expenditures price index—the Fed’s preferred measure for tracking inflation—it’s expected to show the lowest inflation increase since the end of 2021. And last month, the consumer price index showed inflation fell to 3%, which is above the Fed’s 2% target but an improvement from last June’s 9.1%.
Meanwhile, Coca-Cola—whose prices were 10% higher last quarter compared to Q2 2022—said it’s done marking up drinks for the year, and the CFO of Unilever said the packaged goods giant’s price inflation has peaked (though prices may still get higher).
But the FOMC wants more: Chairman Powell said that for inflation to be truly conquered, the job market, which currently boasts a low unemployment rate of 3.6%, will need to slow.
Posted on July 27, 2023 by Dr. David Edward Marcinko MBA MEd CMP™
By Staff Reporters
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The Federal Reserve raised its benchmark interest rate another 0.25% on Wednesday, reviving its inflation fight despite a significant cooldown of price increases in recent months. The rate hike brought the Fed’s benchmark interest rate to a 22-year high of between 5.25% and 5.5%. Inflation has fallen significantly from a peak last summer, but remains at a level one percentage point higher than the Federal Reserve’s target of 2%.
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The Dow on Wednesday rose for a 13th straight day, matching its longest winning streak since 1987. If it closes higher today, it would be a streak not seen since 1897 — about a year after the benchmark was created — when the Dow advanced for 14 sessions in a row. During this latest run, the Dow has outperformed, gaining 5%. That momentum hasn’t been seen in the broader S&P 500 and NASDAQ Composite indexes, however. Both are up just 3% since the Dow’s streak began. The S&P 500 has fallen twice in that time, while the NASDAQ has posted three losing sessions
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Here is where the major benchmarks ended for the day:
The S&P 500 Index was down 0.02% at 4,566.75; the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) was up about 82 points (0.23%) at 35,520.12; the NASDAQ Composite was down 17 points (0.12%) at 14,127.28.
The 10-year Treasury note yield (TNX) edged down to 3.867%.
CBOE’s Volatility Index (VIX) dropped 5 points to at 13.32.
Markets: The Dow is on a run for the ages, extending its winning streak to 12 days. But, Spotify revealing widening losses due to its failed podcasting investments and projected lower revenues. And its stock plunge came despite adding a record number of new subscribers.
Economy: All eyes are on the FOMC today: With another rate hike pretty much a lock, investors will seek Jerome Powell’s comments to see whether the Fed is considering any more increases.
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Alphabet, which declared a “code red” for Google Search late last year as rivals like ChatGPT and Microsoft’s AI-equipped Bing came on the scene, is chugging right along. Google’s search advertising sales grew to a better-than-expected $42.6 billion. And, most people haven’t made ChatGPT their default search engine.
Microsoft beat expectations on its top- and bottom lines and told investors that it had spent, and would continue spending, gobs of money to build out AI infrastructure.
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Snap. The social media platform just rolled out an AI chatbot, My AI, and boasted that 150+ million users have sent over 10 billion messages to it. But, still fighting against the likes of TikTok for ad spending in a sluggish market, Snap’s sales dropped for the second straight quarter, causing shares to plummet 19% after-hours.
Conference calls: Meta reports earnings today, and Amazon and Apple report next week.
Posted on July 25, 2023 by Dr. David Edward Marcinko MBA MEd CMP™
By StaffReporters
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Recession: Last October, economists surveyed by Bloomberg were predicting a 100% chance of a Recession. But currently, the Dow is riding a 10-day winning streak, and the S&P 500 is just over 5% away from its all-time high. This week, Wall Street will be glued to the Fed’s interest rate announcement and a heavy slate of earnings.
Final Fed rate hike? The Federal Reserve will likely announce another interest rate increase this week, but this could be the final hike in its 16-month quest to bring down inflation. If the Fed hikes 25 basis points as expected, interest rates would be at their highest level since 2001.
Earnings galore: Corporate America’s A-list will report Q2 earnings this week, including Meta, Alphabet, Microsoft, McDonald’s, Coca-Cola, and Exxon Mobil. In all, about one-third of companies in the S&P 500 will give financial updates over the next five days, so we should get a good look into the health of a bunch of different industries.
Posted on July 25, 2023 by Dr. David Edward Marcinko MBA MEd CMP™
By Staff Reporters
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The good news continued for the Dow, which notched its 11th straight day of gains yesterday—its best streak since February 2017. But there is much coming that could impact the markets this week, from Big Tech earnings (Microsoft and Alphabet report today) to a likely rate hike from the Fed tomorrow.
Stocks spotlight: Mattel, IMAX, and AMC (boosted from a recent ruling blocking a planned stock conversion) were all up.
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Here is where the major benchmarks ended yesterday:
The S&P 500 Index was up 18 points (0.4%) at 4,554.64; the Dow Jones Industrial Average was up 184 points (0.5%) at 35,411.24; the NASDAQ Composite was up 26 points (0.2%) at 14,058.87.
The 10-year Treasury note yield (TNX) was up about 3 basis points at 3.870%.
CBOE’s Volatility Index (VIX) was up 0.29 at 13.89.
Energy was the strongest sector as crude oil futures added to their recent rally with another 2.3% rise to end near $79 per barrel. Financials were also higher, while utilities and health care lagged.
Posted on July 21, 2023 by Dr. David Edward Marcinko MBA MEd CMP™
By Staff Reporters
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According to Morning Brew, the US banking system is about to speed up, potentially eliminating those frustrating waiting days it can take for money to hit your account. The Fed is launching its FedNow instant payment service later this month. The new system will enable banks to send each other cash instantly, 24/7, as an alternative to the existing system that runs only during regular business hours and often takes days to move money.
FedNow could put America’s banking system on track to catch up to countries like India and Nigeria, where high-speed payments are as common. The US does already have an instant payments system, but it’s private rather than government-backed, and it hasn’t been widely adopted. It’s mostly only used by big banks, and only 1.4% of US transactions happen in real time, according to payment systems company ACI Worldwide.
FedNow enabled services will soon likely appear at the 41 banks that have been certified to participate so far.
People moving money between banks or paying bills could complete their transactions in seconds without the need to plan payments days in advance.
Businesses will be able to access customer payments immediately and to send workers payments more frequently with instant direct deposit rather than the usual payroll cycle.
BUT … Faster payments could mean faster bank runs, too!
Some experts worry that allowing people to drain their bank accounts instantaneously could make SVB-style bank runs more likely. Smaller banks struggling with liquidity would have even less time to react to customer panic and get collateral for emergency government loans to cover fleeing cash.
But there are safeguards built in. FedNow has a transaction limit of $500,000, and banks can set their own ceilings to ensure that customers don’t pull their deposits.
Posted on July 12, 2023 by Dr. David Edward Marcinko MBA MEd CMP™
By Staff Reporters
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American consumers are on track to run out of cash later this year, Bill Gross has warned.
Consumer spending is a key driver of economic growth. If it drops, a recession might be the result.
“Bond King” Gross said the government’s aggressive spending during the pandemic is still buoying the economy.
American consumers are propping up the economy by spending their pandemic savings, but they’re likely to run out of cash later this year, Gross warned.
“It’s fiscal policy not just monetary policy — stupid,” the billionaire investor tweeted. His point was that government spending and tax rates, along with interest rates and money supply, affect economic growth and inflation.
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Used Auto Prices Down
Used car prices in America saw the largest monthly slump since the height of the pandemic in June.
That’s good news on inflation, which could fall below 3% in June, the analyst said.
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Here is where the major benchmarks ended: yesterday
The S&P 500® Index (SPX) was up 29.73 points (0.7%) at 4,439.26; the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) was up 317.02 points (0.9%) at 34,261.42; the NASDAQ Composite (COMP) was up 75.22 points (0.6%) at 13,760.70.
The 10-year Treasury note yield (TNX) was down about 3 basis points at 3.978%.
CBOE’s Volatility Index (VIX) was down 0.23 at 14.84.
Energy companies led sector gainers Tuesday as crude oil futures extended a rally, with the benchmark WTI contract rising more than 2.5% and touching a 2½-month high on signs of lower Russian production.
The Philadelphia Oil Service Index (OSX) jumped more than 3% to a four-month high. Retail and transportation shares were also among the strongest sectors, while the health care and semiconductor sectors slipped.
Posted on July 11, 2023 by Dr. David Edward Marcinko MBA MEd CMP™
By Staff Reporters
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July marks Minority/BIPOC Mental Health Awareness Month
A time when healthcare leaders and policymakers acknowledge the disparities that exist in behavioral health access and outcomes, as well as examine ways to address them. Tell us how your company, hospital, or practice is working to eliminate barriers and ensure equitable access to mental health services.
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U.S. inflation cooled in May to an annual 4%, its lowest annual rate in more than two years, but core inflation rose by 0.4% month-on-month and 5.3% year-on-year.
And the markets are eagerly awaiting key inflation prints from the U.S. later this week, with the core annual consumer price index (CPI) — which excludes volatile food and energy prices — remaining persistently high to date, despite the headline figure gradually edging closer to the Federal Reserve‘s 2% target.
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Here is where the major benchmarks ended:
The S&P 500® Index (SPX) was up 10.58 points (0.2%) at 4,409.53; the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) was up 209.52 points (0.6%) at 33,944.40; the NASDAQ Composite (COMP) was up 24.77 points (0.2%) at 13,685.48.
The 10-year Treasury note yield (TNX) was down about 4 basis points at 4.008%.
CBOE’s Volatility Index (VIX) rose 0.21 to 15.04.
Chip stocks were among the strongest sectors Monday, with the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index (SOX), jumping about 2%.
Retail and industrial stocks were also strong, while the small-cap focused Russell 2000 index (RUT) gained 1.5%. Utilities and Communication Services ranked among the weakest performers. Volatility perked up, with the VIX touching a five-week high.
Posted on July 7, 2023 by Dr. David Edward Marcinko MBA MEd CMP™
By Staff Reporters
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The U.S. is expected to have added tens of thousands of jobs in June, continuing to defy high interest rates and stubborn inflation, But any signs of slower job and wage growth last month could signal the labor market may be cooling down.
Economists surveyed by Bloomberg project that 225,000 jobs were added to the economy in June while the unemployment rate is expected to have slipped to 3.6% – down from 3.7% the previous month. And a projected 4.2% average hourly wage bump over the previous June would be the smallest yearly uptick since 2021.
Posted on July 7, 2023 by Dr. David Edward Marcinko MBA MEd CMP™
By Staff Reporters
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(AP) — U.S. officials granted full approval to a closely watched Alzheimer’s drug on Thursday, clearing the way for Medicare and other insurance plans to begin covering the treatment for people with the brain-robbing disease. The Food and Drug Administration endorsed the IV drug, Leqembi, for patients with mild dementia and other symptoms caused by early Alzheimer’s disease. It’s the first medicine that’s been convincingly shown to modestly slow Alzheimer’s cognitive decline.
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Markets: Yesterday was yet another “good news is bad news” day on Wall Street. After the ADP employment report showed private sector companies added more than 2x the jobs that were forecast last month, stocks fell and Treasury yields surged—an indication that investors expect the Fed to resume hiking interest rates to cool down the job market. So, all eyes are on the non-farm payrolls report since a stronger-than-expected report could result in even more Fed rate hikes than currently expected. Here is where the major benchmarks ended yesterday:
The S&P 500® Index was down 35.23 points (0.8%) at 4,411.59; the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) was down 366.38 points (1.1%) at 33,922.26; the NASDAQ Composite (COMP) was down 112.61 points (0.8%) at 13,679.04.
The 10-year Treasury note yield (TNX) was up about 9 basis points at 4.035%.
The CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) was up 1.25 at 15.43.
Energy was among the weakest sectors despite crude oil futures touching a two-week high.
Regional banks and Consumer Discretionary stocks were also lower. Volatility expectations based on the VIX jumped to their highest level since late May.
Markets: Stocks ended mixed yesterday after Jerome Powell (and other major central bankers around the world) signaled that more interest rate hikes are as inevitable. In fact, Jerome Powell hinted he couldn’t rule out two rate raises in a row.
Stock spotlight: AI-chip hero Nvidia fell on reports that the US is considering even more restrictions on chip exports to China.
Posted on June 22, 2023 by Dr. David Edward Marcinko MBA MEd CMP™
By Staff Reporters
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Wall Street’s major averages yesterday, on Wednesday, ended lower for a third straight session, weighed down by losses in growth stocks. And, sentiment was dampened by Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell’s largely hawkish reiteration that more rate hikes were likely.
Powell in his published opening remarks to his two-day testimony to Congress said that nearly all policymakers expect that interest rates would have to be raised further by the end of the year. The Fed chief then, in responses to questions from lawmakers, said that it may “make sense” for the central bank to raise rates at a “more moderate pace” going forward.
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So, here is where the major benchmarks ended:
The S&P 500 Index was down 23.02 points (0.5%) at 4,365.69; the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) was down 102.35 (0.3%) at 33,951.52; the NASDAQ Composite was down 165.10 (1.2%) at 13,502.20.
The 10-year Treasury note yield (TNX) was little changed at 3.727%.
Cboe’s Volatility Index (VIX) was was down 0.68 at 13.19.
Technology shares were among the weakest performers Wednesday, with the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index (SOX) dropping nearly 2% to near a two-week low. Regional banks were also lower.
Energy stocks led sector gainers as crude oil futures jumped nearly 2% to a two-week high on hopes for stronger demand from China. Volatility based on the VIX sank to its lowest level since January 2020.
Posted on June 14, 2023 by Dr. David Edward Marcinko MBA MEd CMP™
By Staff Reporters
FLAG DAY 2023
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Measured year over year, inflation slowed to just 4 per cent in May — the lowest 12-month figure in over two years and well below April’s 4.9 per cent annual rise. The pullback was driven by tumbling gas prices and smaller increases in grocery prices and other items.
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Here is where the major benchmarks ended, today:
The S&P 500® Index was up 30.08 points (0.7%) at 4,369.01; the Dow Jones industrial average was up 145.79 (0.4%) at 34,212.12; the NASDAQ Composite was up 111.40 (0.8%) at 13,573.32.
The 10-year Treasury note yield (TNX) was up about 6 basis points at 3.829%.
CBOE’s Volatility Index (VIX) was down 0.4 at 14.61.
Regional banks and oilfield services stocks led the gainers Tuesday. Crude oil futures rose 3% on expectations of stronger demand from China. Small-caps were also strong, with the Russell 2000 Index (RUT) rising more than 1% to its highest level since early March. The U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) fell to its lowest level in more than three weeks thanks to expectations interest rates could be near their peak.
Posted on June 4, 2023 by Dr. David Edward Marcinko MBA MEd CMP™
By Staff Reporters
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The US kept adding jobs according to new data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics. The economy gained 339,000 pay-rolled employees in May, more than in each of the preceding three months and way more than the 190,000 Dow Jones predicted (to be fair, expert estimates low-balled 13 of the last 16 job reports, according to CNBC. This growth happened despite climbing interest rates, inflation, recent bank failures, and a nerve-racking debt ceiling standoff that threatened to destroy the economy And, Wall Street interpreted the data as a big green “buy” sign. For example:
Stocksleaped up last week as investors celebrated the deal to lift the debt ceiling being showed that the economy is still going strong. In fact, Lululemon stretched toward the heavens after beating earnings expectations thanks to a 24% year over year jump in sales.
But not all indications pointed to the hot streak continuing indefinitely.
The unemployment rate inched, wage growth slowed, and workers appear less self-assured in the labor market:
The self-employed lost 369,000 people from its ranks in May, a possible sign that folks might be ditching the self-employment for the security of a traditional employer.
And, recent data shows the quit rate has declined from an all-time high in late 2021, bringing an end to the pandemic job-hopping trend dubbed the Great Resignation.
Ultimately, the Fed will have to use the conflicting and mixed economic indicators to decide whether to further crank up interest rates at their next meeting. The Federal Reserve has been hinting that it might cease raising interest rates, and investors seem convinced the central bank will follow through and at least “skip” a hike this month even though the labor market is still radiating heat.
Posted on May 13, 2023 by Dr. David Edward Marcinko MBA MEd CMP™
By Staff Reporters
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Here is where the major benchmarks ended this week:
The S&P 500 Index was down 6.54 points (0.2%) at 4124.08; the Dow Jones industrial average was down 8.89 at 33,300.62; the NASDAQ Composite was down 43.76 (0.4%) at 12,284.74.
The 10-year Treasury yield was up about 7 basis points at 3.464%.
CBOE’s Volatility Index was up 0.10 at 17.03.
Consumer Discretionary Socks led the declines Friday among S&P 500 sectors, with financials and energy shares also weaker. Worries over the potential for more trouble in the banking sector helped send the KBW Regional Bank Index to its lowest close since late 2020. Utilities and Consumer Staples were among the stronger performers.
Jerome Powell May Get a New No. 2. President Biden said yesterday that he would nominate economist Philip Jefferson, who is already on the Fed’s board, to become second-in-command at the central bank, replacing Lael Brainard. He also plans to nominate the current US rep to the World Bank, Adriana Kugler, to an empty board seat. She would be the Fed’s first Latina governor. If confirmed by the Senate, the pair will jump into their new roles as the Fed continues to try to curb inflation without tipping the economy into a recession.
Posted on May 4, 2023 by Dr. David Edward Marcinko MBA MEd CMP™
By Staff Reporters
MAY THE FOURTH BE WITH YOU
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Many pharma companies reported earnings in the last week, and the common thread is crashing Covid-related sales.
For example, AstraZeneca’s Covid medication sales dropped $1.5b in Q1, Merck’s Covid antiviral sales fell 88% from the same quarter in 2022, and Roche’s diagnostics division sales fell 28% from Q1 2022, thanks to low Covid-test demand. Clearly, pharma companies have to figure out how to pivot their strategies in a post-Covid world.
The CDCwill not continue to track Covid-19 community spread as the country enters the endemic stage of the pandemic.
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The Food and Drug Administration approved Wednesday the first-ever vaccine to combat severe respiratory syncytial virus, or RSV. Arexvy, the new vaccine developed by GlaxoSmithKline, was approved for adults 60 and older and was 82% effective at preventing lower respiratory tract illness caused by RSV, according to trial data. It was also 94% effective in those who had at least one underlying medical condition.
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The Federal Reserve voted unanimously to raise interest rates by a quarter point yesterday, the tenth rate hike since the central bank started its battle against inflation last March. The move comes amid ongoing fragility in the banking sector triggered partly by higher interest rates, and following the collapse of three regional banks. Markets had anticipated the rate hike, and remained fairly muted after the Fed’s announcement.
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Finally, here’s where the major indexes ended up:
The S&P 500® Index was down 28.83 points at 4090.75; the Dow Jones industrial average was down 270.29 (0.8%) at 33,414.24; the NASDAQ Composite was down 55.18 (0.5%) at 12,025.33.
The 10-year Treasury yield was down about 7 basis points at 3.367%.
CBOE’s Volatility Index was up 0.52 at 18.30.
Energy companies were among the market’s weakest performers as crude oil continued a recent decline, with WTI crude futures falling more than 4% under $70 a barrel—a nearly six-week low.
Semiconductor and financial shares were also weak. The U.S. dollar index dropped sharply in the wake of the Fed announcement before rebounding.
Posted on May 3, 2023 by Dr. David Edward Marcinko MBA MEd CMP™
By Staff Reporters
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Markets: The relative calm after JPMorgan scooped up First Republic Bank lasted all of…one day. Two other West Coast lenders, PacificWest and Western Alliance, both tumbled in a sign investors still smell blood among regional banks.
Economy: Happy Fed Decision Day to all who celebrate. With inflation sizzling at still-uncomfortably high levels, Chair Jerome Powell is expected to announce the central bank’s 10th straight interest rate hike this afternoon. But many economists expect this rate increase could be the grand finale.
Layoffs jump to the highest level since late 2020. The number of job openings in the US dropped to a nearly two-year low in March, and layoffs increased to their highest point since December 2020, the Labor Department revealed yesterday. In this “bad news is good news” economic environment, the Fed will be pleased that the boiling-hot labor market is cooling off. It means less pressure on inflation and more justification to pause hiking rates.
Posted on May 1, 2023 by Dr. David Edward Marcinko MBA MEd CMP™
Detailing Oversight Lapses
By Staff Reporters
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The Fed says it’s time for new bank rules
Just in time for a new looming bank failure, the Federal Reserve issued a 102-page report dissecting the corpse of Silicon Valley Bank. Meanwhile, FRB [First Republic Bank] FRB was just sold to JPMorgan Chase.
And in an accompanying letter, Michael Barr, the Fed’s vice chair for supervision, called for stricter rules to be applied to more financial institutions and for more tools to be given to regulators to bring firms with poor capital planning and risk management into line.
Posted on April 29, 2023 by Dr. David Edward Marcinko MBA MEd CMP™
By Staff Reporters
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Compensation pay for US workers picked up in the first three months of the year, showing that a major source of inflationary pressure persists and cementing the path for an interest rate hike at the Federal Reserve’s meeting next week. The Employment Cost Index, released Friday by the Bureau of Labor Statistics, showed that workers were paid 1.2% more in wages and benefits in the first quarter from the prior three-month period. That’s up from analysts’ expectations of 1.1%.
Markets: Stocks rose yesterday, finishing strong to give the Dow its best month since January. But First Republic Bank tanked again as rumors flew about its fate, again.
Economy: For all the Fed watchers, new data released makes it look like another rate hike could be in store next week. The data shows wages are still trending upward, and one of the Fed’s favorite inflation measures rose slightly last month.
Here’s where markets ended.
The S&P 500 Index was up 34.13 (0.8%) at 4169.48, a nearly three-month high; the Dow Jones industrial average was up 272.00 (0.8%) at 34,098.16; the NASDAQ Composite was up 84.35 (0.7%) at (12,226.58.
The 10-year Treasury yield was down about 9 basis points at 3.437%.
CBOE’s Volatility Index was down 1.27 at 15.76.
Energy companies were among the strongest sectors today with help from a rally in crude oil futures. Transportation and financial stocks were also strong. Utilities and consumer discretionary sectors were among the weakest sectors.
Posted on April 26, 2023 by Dr. David Edward Marcinko MBA MEd CMP™
By Staff Reporters
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DEFINITION: Startups areyoung companies or ventures that are founded to develop a unique or innovative product, service, or platform, and bring it to market. They are typically in the early stages of their development and face high uncertainty and failure rates. They are usually self-funded by the founders or seek external funding from investors or loans. They aim to grow large beyond the solo founder and disrupt existing industries or create new one.
SVB was relatively small—it had 40,000 customers compared to JPMorgan Chase’s 66 million—but it claimed to bank nearly half of all US tech and life sciences startups last year, including household names like Etsy, Roblox, and Roku. The cultural cachet of having a relationship with SVB as a venture-backed startup was like sporting a New Yorker tote at Whole Foods.
But the reason its loss will leave such a gaping hole in the startup community isn’t that it was cool to name-drop at a networking event. Because the bank was created in 1983 specifically to cater to venture-backed startups, it helped them in ways that most banks can’t—or won’t.
SVB chill loans: According to the MorningBrew, SVB would offer loans to startups more readily than large banks, basing the loans on a company’s ability to raise venture capital funds, not to turn a profit. SVB was also known for being flexible—even if startups breached their loan terms. “They were the easiest money for an unprofitable, early stage to mid-stage tech company,” Irving Investors founder Jeremy Abelson told The Information. And, even small startups received hand-holding services, such as guidance on how to set up their financial infrastructure. Its bankers personally called startups when they secured their first rounds of funding, according to The Information.
Startups now have to deal with big banks
Several founders who previously banked with SVB told Bloomberg that they’re moving their money to Chase and Bank of America, banks considered “too big to fail.”
Startups’ experience at big banks won’t be like their time at SVB. Not only is Jamie Dimon unlikely to call a startup to congratulate them on their Series A, but big banks are also expected to be more tight-fisted with their loans. The Office of the Comptroller of the Currency, a regulator that oversees large US banks, disapproves of loans to companies that are further out than one year from profitability, according to Crunchbase.
The loss of SVB is therefore expected to have a chilling effect on loans to venture-backed startups, aka “venture debt,” which SVB handed out more of than any other bank.
Posted on April 14, 2023 by Dr. David Edward Marcinko MBA MEd CMP™
By Staff Reporters
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A rally on Wall Street yesterday is lifting stocks to their highest level in almost two months following the latest sign that inflation continues to cool. Yesterday’s report showed that prices paid to producers last month were 2.7% higher than a year earlier, the lowest inflation level there in more than two years. The hope on Wall Street is that easier inflation on the wholesale level will not only support profits for companies but also flow through to cooler inflation for consumers. A day earlier, a separate report said inflation for consumers slowed to 5%.
Inflation and how high the Federal Reserve will hike interest rates to tame it have been at the center of Wall Street’s struggles for more than a year. The Fed has hiked rates at such a feverish pace over the last year that it’s already slowed parts of the economy and caused strains to appear in the banking system.
And so, stocks climbed on the cooler-than-expected PPI, and perhaps some optimism around the Q1 earnings season, with several big banks reporting Friday. However, expectations around Fed policy didn’t budge much.
Bond yields were little changed and markets still see a 70% probability of the Fed enacting a quarter-point rate increase in May, according to the CME FedWatch tool.
The following is a round-up of yesterday’s market activity:
The S&P 500 Index was up 54.27 points (1.3%) at 4146.22; the Dow Jones industrial average was up 383.19 (1.1%) at 34,029.69; the NASDAQ Composite was up 236.93 (2.0%) at 12,166.27.
The 10-year Treasury yield was up about 3 basis points at 3.447%.
Posted on April 13, 2023 by Dr. David Edward Marcinko MBA MEd CMP™
By Staff Reporters
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The consumer-price index, a closely watched inflation gauge that measures what consumers pay for goods and services, rose 5% last month from a year earlier, down from February’s 6% increase and the smallest gain since May 2021, the Labor Department said yesterday. Earlier, the consumer price index for March came in below expectations, rising 0.1% monthly compared to forecasts for a 0.2% increase. Many other indicators have inflation continuing to fall in the coming months as tightening credit conditions and weaker economic demand take a bite out of economic growth.
The following is a round-up of today’s market activity:
The S&P 500 Index was down 16.99 (0.4%) at 4091.95; the Dow Jones industrial average was down 38.29 (0.1%) at 33,646.50; the NASDAQ Composite was down 102.54 (0.9%) at 11,929.34.
The 10-year Treasury yield was down about 3 basis points at 3.404%.
CBOE’s Volatility Index was down 0.01 at 19.09.
Technology stocks led Wednesday’s declines, with the PHLX semiconductor index sinking 1.8%. Consumer discretionary and transportation were also among the weakest sectors, while oilfield services led gainers as crude oil prices extended a recent rally.
WTI crude futures jumped over 2% above $83 a barrel and ended near a five-month high. Gold futures rose a second straight day and remain above $2,000 an ounce.
Posted on April 12, 2023 by Dr. David Edward Marcinko MBA MEd CMP™
By Staff Reporters
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A closely-watched government measure of inflation is expected to show that price increases cooled further last month. March’s Consumer Price Index (CPI), slated for release today,is expected to come in at5.2%, a slowdown from February’s 6% annual gain, according to estimates from Bloomberg. The number would mark the slowest annual increase in consumer prices since May 2021 but would still be significantly above the Federal Reserve’s 2% target. The Fed has been raising interest rates to try to bring down inflation, but the central bank risks sending the economy into a recession by hiking rates too high too fast.
The following is a round-up of today’s market activity:
The S&P 500® Index was down 0.17 point at 4108.94; the Dow Jones industrial average was up 98.27 (0.3%) at 33,684.79; the NASDAQ Composite was down 52.48 (0.4%) at 12,031.88.
The 10-year Treasury yield was up about 1 basis point at 3.428%.
CBOE’s Volatility Index was up 0.12 at 19.09.
Energy companies led the gainers, with the PHLX Oil Service Index jumping nearly 2% behind strength in crude oil futures, which rallied to their highest levels since late January. The transportation and financial sectors were also strong.
The U.S. dollar weakened slightly, while gold futures climbed nearly 1% to end a three-day tumble.
Posted on April 6, 2023 by Dr. David Edward Marcinko MBA MEd CMP™
By Staff Reporters
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Understanding FDIC insurance limits
The FDIC wants to make sure it can cover everyone with a bank account, so to make that happen, it caps how much money it insures. The FDIC says its standard is to cover up to “$250,000 per depositor, per insured bank, for each account ownership category.
Here’s an example: Let’s say you have $100,000 in your checking account and $150,000 in your savings, all at the same bank. The FDIC classifies those under the same category: single accounts.So you would have hit your FDIC deposit limit. Every additional cent deposited into either account would be uninsured. But if you have money in other banks or other deposit categories, you may have additional coverage.
Could the insured deposit cap get a lift?
At least four US lawmakers—two from each side of the aisle—said they would support raising the cap on FDIC-insured deposits in order to reassure frazzled bank customers that their deposits are safe. The current cap is $250,000 (up from $100k pre-financial crisis), but Democratic Sen. Elizabeth Warren said bumping it up “is a good move.” Opponents of raising the cap say it would only increase risk-taking and bad behavior by banks. Some even argue we should lower it.
Posted on April 1, 2023 by Dr. David Edward Marcinko MBA MEd CMP™
By Staff Reporters
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April Fools’ Day—occurring on April 1 each year—has been celebrated for several centuries by different cultures, though its exact origins remain a mystery. April Fools’ Day traditions include playing hoaxes or practical jokes on others, often yelling “April Fools!” at the end to clue in the subject of the April Fools’ Day prank. While its exact history is shrouded in mystery, the embrace of April Fools’ Day jokes by the media and major brands has ensured the unofficial holiday’s long life.
Investors celebrated a lower-than-expected reading on the Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation gauge by driving major U.S. stock indexes higher Friday, the last trading day of the first quarter. Sentiment got a boost after reports that the personal consumption expenditures (PCE) index rose 0.3% in February, a little below the 0.4% economists were expecting, and 5% from the same month a year ago. Core PCE inflation, which excludes volatile food and inflation prices, was also up 0.3% from the previous month and 4.6% from a year earlier. PCE and core PCE both rose 0.6% in January from the month before.
Despite wild fluctuation due to continuous rate hikes from the Fed and an unexpected bank panic, stocks and bonds managed to turn in a pretty, pretty, pretty good performance for the quarter. The S&P 500 gained 7%, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 0.4%.
But, tech companies were indisputably the market leaders.
Wall Street rewarded tech companies’ layoffs and other cost cutting measures, giving tech stocks a resurgence. And with ChatGPT becoming a household name, investors have their money on generative AI as the next big bet. As of last night:
The tech-heavy NASDAQ Composite index rose a whopping 18% since January 1st, its largest quarterly gain in two years.
Stocks of the tech giants leading the charge in AI-powered search, Microsoft and Alphabet, are up 20% and 16%, respectively.
Bank stocks were a delight for short sellers, who made $2 billion betting against the sector in the past three months.
Smaller institutions were most badly injured by the bank panic: The SPRD S&P Regional Banking ETF, which consists of non-behemoth banks, had more than a quarter of its value wiped out in Q1.
Large banks are feeling the pinch of rising interest rates: Global merger and acquisition deals suffered the biggest first-quarter decline since 2001, according to data analyzed by the Financial Times.
“The 0.3% monthly increase in core PCE was a step in the right direction but suggests the path to 2% inflation will still likely be long and bumpy,” says Collin Martin, a fixed income strategist at the Schwab Center for Financial Research.
The S&P 500 Index rose 58 points (1.44%) to 4109.05; the Dow Jones industrial average was up 415 points (1.26%) at 33274.15; the NASDAQ Composite was up 208 points (1.74%) at 12221.91.
The 10-year Treasury yield slipped seven basis points to 3.482%.
CBOEs Volatility Index was down 22 basis points (1.16%) at 18.78.
Over the past decade, the Federal Reserve has manipulated asset prices by interfering with free markets by deciding what both short-term and long-term interest rates should be. This resulted in an increase in risk-taking behavior among investors.
Risk became a four-letter word uttered only by curmudgeons; the only thing investors feared was being left out. The more risk you took, the more money you made – until you lost it all.
Posted on March 22, 2023 by Dr. David Edward Marcinko MBA MEd CMP™
BREAKING NEWS!
By Staff Reporters
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Dateline: WASHINGTON—The Federal Reserve raised its key short-term interest rate by a quarter percentage point today, pushing ahead with its aggressive campaign to tame inflation despite financial turmoil following Silicon Valley Bank’s collapse.
FOMC officials forecast another quarter point in rate increases this year to a peak range of 5% to 5.25%, in line with its December estimate and lower than the level markets anticipated before SVB’s meltdown.
In a statement after a two-day meeting, the Fed acknowledged recent strains in the nation’s banks and said they will soften the economy but added the financial system is stable.
Posted on March 19, 2023 by Dr. David Edward Marcinko MBA MEd CMP™
By Staff Reporters
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Bitcoin prices climbed to as high as $27,293 last week, wrapping up the cryptocurrency’s best week since January 2021. And it has Silicon Valley Bank and friends to thank for it. Crypto diehards claim bitcoin’s gains are the result of people losing faith in traditional banking after SVB and Signature imploded (though it’s worth noting that Signature was a big player in the crypto world).
However, after the second-and third-biggest bank failures in history, economists started second-guessing whether the Fed would stick to the plan to hike interest rates again or change course to protect the rest of the very fragile banking industry. That could mean the crypto market, which slid into the dreaded Crypto Winter in the first half of last year because of macroeconomic factors like the Fed’s rate hikes, might finally be approaching spring.
So, according to MorningBrew, the Fed’s interest rate decision next week will likely serve as crypto’s redeux. And despite the banking industry hoping Jerome Powell pauses the interest rate hikes, February’s inflation numbers showed that the Fed may need to stick to its original plan to keep inflation in check.
Posted on March 13, 2023 by Dr. David Edward Marcinko MBA MEd CMP™
By Staff Reporters
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Saudi Aramco made what iss probably the “highest net income ever recorded in the corporate world,” Saudi Aramco’s CEO Amin Nasser just said. The state-owned oil giant brought in an astonishing $161.1 billion in net income in 2022, up 46.5% from the previous year. Rising oil prices lifted all energy companies last year, but Aramco raked in almost triple ExxonMobil’s 2022 profits (record for any Western oil company).
So, after getting mixed signals about the economy from Friday’s jobs report, the Fed will take a fine-toothed comb to the consumer price index, which drops tomorrow.
Banks: At the end of an extremely stressful weekend, depositors of collapsed Silicon Valley Bank were told they would be made whole. Yesterday evening, the US government informed anxious SVB depositors that they’d have access to all the money they stashed with the lender today, even if the amount exceeded the $250,000 limit insured by the FDIC. In addition to backstopping depositors, the Fed is offering additional funding to some banks to limit the contagion from spreading across the banking sector.
And, according to MorningBrew, the Fed’s aggressive action shows how the implosion of Silicon Valley Bank on Friday could have quickly turned into a full-blown banking crisis when markets open this morning.
Banking is a confidence game, and if people and businesses felt their uninsured deposits were at risk, they could start pulling money from other banks in a catastrophic bank run.
The government had a hard deadline of 9:30am ET this morning to restore confidence in the banking system, and it beat it.
However, in their announcement, regulators also noted the closure of a second bank, New York-based Signature Bank, over “systemic risk.” All of Signature’s depositors will be made whole, they said.
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ALERT: HSBC Holdings PLC just said that it purchased Silicon Valley Bank UK Ltd., the U.K. arm of the collapsed Silicon Valley Bank, for 1 pound ($1.20). HSBC said the acquisition will help strengthen its franchise in the U.K. As of March 10th, SVBUK had loans of around GBP5.5 billion and deposits of around GBP6.7 billion, while tangible equity is expected to be around GBP1.4 billion. The acquisition was completed immediately.
The Bank of England said it took the decision to sell SVBUK to stabilize the business, ensure continuity of banking services, minimize disruption to the country’s technology sector and support confidence in the financial system.
Posted on March 13, 2023 by Dr. David Edward Marcinko MBA MEd CMP™
By Staff Reporters
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According to MarketWatch, U.S. equity markets traded unevenly Sunday afternoon, in the aftermath of the failure of Silicon Valley Bank SIVB, -60.41% on Friday, which has cast a pall over the banking sector and damaged market sentiment. Futures for the Dow YM00, 0.86% were off 70 points or 0.2%, those for the S&P 500 ES00, 1.18% were virtually unchanged, while those for the Nasdaq-100 futures NQ00, 1.18% were about 0.3%.
Over the weekend, the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation was holding an auction for the assets of failed SVB Financial Group Capital, the parent of Silicon Valley Bank of California, according to reports. Discussions also were said to be underway involving the Federal Reserve to possibly create a fund to protect uninsured depositors.
Investors are assessing the SVB bank failure to see if it complicates the Fed’s plans to raise interest rates further and potentially faster than previously expected in its bid to tamp down inflation. SVB was closed by California regulators on Friday, in the second-largest in U.S. history, and taken over by the FDIC.
Posted on March 9, 2023 by Dr. David Edward Marcinko MBA MEd CMP™
By Staff Reporters
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CREDIT SUISSE:
Equities revenue plummeted 95% in the fourth quarter
CS earlier informally looked at options for unit -sources
CS declined comment on ‘rumors and speculation’, and
In the latest piece of troubling news, the beleaguered Swiss bank delayed the publication of its 2022 annual report following a “late call” from the US Securities and Exchange Commission on Wednesday evening. The SEC got in touch over revisions the bank had previously made to its cash flow statements for 2019 and 2020,
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U.S. equities finished mixed following yesterday’s rout, as investors digested a second day of testimony from Fed Chair Jerome Powell. The Chairman remained hawkish in his commentary, where he suggested rates may need to accelerate more than initially expected and may need to stay higher for longer than originally anticipated. Adding to the uncertainty, the afternoon release of the Fed’s Beige Book showed little change from the last installment.
Treasury yields were mixed with the yield curve inversion worsening, and the U.S. dollar was flat after yesterday’s rally. Crude oil prices were lower, and gold was little changed in choppy action. News on the equity front was light, as CrowdStrike topped quarterly earnings estimates and offered upbeat guidance, while UPS reiterated its full-year outlook.
The economic calendar was tilted toward labor data, as job openings dipped but remained elevated, and ADP’s private sector employment report bested forecasts ahead of Friday’s key non-farm payroll release.
Elsewhere, mortgage applications snapped a three-week losing streak, and the trade deficit came in slightly smaller than projected. Asia finished mixed and Europe also diverged, as the global markets processed the testimony from Fed Chairman Powell.
Posted on March 8, 2023 by Dr. David Edward Marcinko MBA MEd CMP™
By Staff Reporters
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The Dow Jones Industrial Average decreased 575 points (1.7%) to 32,856, the S&P 500 Index was 62 points (1.5%) lower at 3,986, and the NASDAQ Composite lost 145 points (1.3%) to 11,530. In moderate volume, 3.8 billion shares of NYSE-listed stocks were traded, and 5.3 billion shares changed hands on the NASDAQ. WTI crude oil fell $2.88 to $77.58 per barrel. Elsewhere, the gold spot price tumbled $34.80 to $1,819.80 per ounce, and the Dollar Index jumped 1.2% to 105.59.
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And, a key recession indicator flashed its loudest warning ever after Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell said benchmark rates will likely go higher than once anticipated. The inversion between the 2-year and 10-year Treasury yields hit a record 103.5 basis points on Tuesday, according to Refinitiv data. It later narrowed to 102.4 basis points. In normal economic times, shorter-term yields are below longer-term yields. But for months, the 2- and 10-year yields have been inverted amid growing recession fears, as the Fed continues to tighten policy to rein in inflation. The 2-year yield currently sits at 4.992% while the 10-year yield is 3.968%. Meanwhile, there’s a 61.6% probability the Fed will raise its benchmark rate by 50 basis points on March 22, up from 31.4% a day earlier.
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Finally, the economic calendar introduced a read on wholesale inventories, which was un-revised from the preliminary report at a m/m decline in January. Meanwhile, consumer credit for January expanded at a slower-than-expected pace. Q4 earnings season continues to wrap up, as Dick’s Sporting Goods bested earnings estimates, raised its quarterly dividend, and issued full-year guidance that came in above forecasts. In other equity news, Meta Platforms is planning another round of layoffs that could affect thousands of workers, according to a Bloomberg News report.
Treasury yields were mixed, and the U.S. dollar rallied, while crude oil and gold prices were sharply lower.
Asian stocks ended mixed following the Reserve Bank of Australia’s 25 bp rate hike, and European stocks were lower, as international investors digested Powell’s comments.
Posted on March 7, 2023 by Dr. David Edward Marcinko MBA MEd CMP™
By Staff Reporters
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U.S. stocks were subdued in a choppy trading session, as the markets struggled to add to last week’s gains that snapped a string of weekly losses.
Treasury yields went up and the U.S. dollar was lower ahead of this week’s two-day Congressional testimony from Fed Chairman Jerome Powell. Crude oil prices rose, and gold traded slightly to the downside.
Equity news was light with Q4 earnings season mostly in the books, though Tesla announced that it reduced the price of its pricier models in the U.S. for the second time this year, and Ciena Corporation topped earnings forecasts. The economic week began with a read on factory orders that fell less than expected. Additionally, durable goods orders were unchanged from the preliminary report, while excluding transportation, orders were unexpectedly revised upward.
Asian stocks finished mostly higher even as China offered a conservative economic growth outlook, and markets in Europe were mixed following some lackluster data.
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