PREDICTION MARKETS: Uniting Economics, Finance and Collective Intelligence

Posted on December 4, 2025 by Dr. David Edward Marcinko MBA MEd CMP™

By Dr. David Edward Marcinko MBA MEd

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The Case of Kalshi

Financial prediction markets represent a fascinating intersection of economics, finance, and collective intelligence. Unlike traditional stock or commodity markets, these platforms allow participants to trade contracts whose value depends on the outcome of real‑world events. Kalshi, one of the most prominent examples, has emerged as a regulated exchange in the United States where individuals can buy and sell event contracts tied to measurable outcomes such as inflation rates, interest rate decisions, or even the release of government data. These markets transform uncertainty into tradable assets, offering both a mechanism for hedging risk and a tool for aggregating information.

At their core, prediction markets operate on a simple principle: the price of a contract reflects the probability of an event occurring. If a contract pays one dollar if the Federal Reserve raises interest rates at its next meeting, and it trades at seventy cents, the market is signaling a seventy percent chance of that outcome. This pricing mechanism is not dictated by a single analyst or institution but emerges from the collective actions of traders who bring diverse knowledge, expectations, and incentives to the table. The result is a dynamic forecast that updates in real time as new information becomes available.

Kalshi distinguishes itself by focusing on financial and economic events rather than purely political or cultural ones. Its contracts cover topics such as monthly inflation figures, unemployment rates, GDP growth, and central bank decisions. For businesses and investors, these markets provide a way to hedge against risks that are otherwise difficult to manage. A company worried about rising inflation can take positions in Kalshi’s inflation contracts, effectively offsetting potential losses in its operations. Similarly, an investor anticipating a change in interest rates can use event contracts to protect their portfolio or speculate on outcomes. In this sense, prediction markets serve both speculative and risk‑management purposes, much like traditional derivatives.

The appeal of financial prediction markets lies in their ability to aggregate dispersed information. Economists have long argued that markets are efficient at processing data because prices reflect the collective wisdom of participants. Prediction markets extend this logic to events that are not strictly financial but have financial consequences. By allowing traders to express their beliefs in monetary terms, these markets generate probabilities that often rival or surpass expert forecasts. For example, the probability of a rate hike inferred from Kalshi’s contracts may provide a more accurate signal than surveys of economists, because traders have skin in the game and adjust their positions continuously.

Another important aspect of Kalshi is its regulatory status. Unlike many informal or crypto‑based prediction platforms, Kalshi operates as a regulated exchange in the United States. This gives it legitimacy and ensures compliance with financial laws. Regulation also allows institutional investors to participate with greater confidence, expanding the scope and liquidity of the market. The presence of oversight helps distinguish financial prediction markets from gambling, emphasizing their role as instruments for hedging and forecasting rather than mere speculation.

Despite their promise, prediction markets face challenges. Liquidity is a constant concern; without sufficient participation, prices may not accurately reflect probabilities. There is also the question of accessibility, as not all individuals or institutions are comfortable trading event contracts. Moreover, critics argue that prediction markets could influence the very events they are meant to forecast, particularly in sensitive areas like politics. Kalshi mitigates some of these concerns by focusing on measurable economic outcomes, which are less susceptible to manipulation.

CONCLUSION

Looking ahead, financial prediction markets like Kalshi may become an integral part of the financial ecosystem. As global uncertainty increases, businesses and investors seek tools to manage risks beyond traditional hedging instruments. Event contracts provide a novel way to do so, while simultaneously offering valuable insights into collective expectations. If adoption continues to grow, prediction markets could evolve into a mainstream source of information, complementing surveys, expert analysis, and traditional financial indicators.

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CRYPTO-CURRENCY: Historical Review

Posted on October 24, 2025 by Dr. David Edward Marcinko MBA MEd CMP™

By Dr. David Edward Marcinko MBA MEd

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SPONSOR: http://www.MarcinkoAssociates.com

President Donald Trump signed a pardon on Wednesday for convicted crypto executive Changpeng Zhao, who founded the Binance crypto exchange, White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt said in a statement. “President Trump exercised his constitutional authority by issuing a pardon for Mr. Zhao, who was prosecuted by the Biden Administration in their war on cryptocurrency,” Leavitt said. “In their desire to punish the cryptocurrency industry, the Biden Administration pursued Mr. Zhao despite no allegations of fraud or identifiable victims.”

Zhao was sentenced to four months in prison after reaching a deal with the Justice Dept. to plead guilty to charges of enabling money laundering at Binance, which he ran at the time. The U.S. also ordered Binance to pay more than $4 billion in fines and forfeiture, while Zhao agreed to pay $50 million in fines. A spokesperson for Binance did not immediately respond to a request for comment yesterday.

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The History of Cryptocurrency: From Concept to Revolution

Cryptocurrency has transformed the global financial landscape, offering a decentralized alternative to traditional banking systems. Its history is rooted in decades of technological innovation, philosophical ideals, and economic experimentation.

🌐 Early Foundations

The concept of digital currency predates Bitcoin by several decades. In 1982, cryptographer David Chaum published a groundbreaking paper on secure digital transactions, laying the foundation for future developments in electronic money. Chaum later founded DigiCash in the 1990s, which introduced the idea of anonymous digital payments using cryptographic protocols. Although DigiCash eventually failed, it was a crucial stepping stone in the evolution of cryptocurrency.

The Birth of Bitcoin

The true revolution began in 2008 when an anonymous figure—or group—known as Satoshi Nakamoto released the Bitcoin whitepaper titled “Bitcoin: A Peer-to-Peer Electronic Cash System.” This document proposed a decentralized digital currency that used blockchain technology to record transactions transparently and securely without the need for a central authority.

On January 3, 2009, Nakamoto mined the first block of the Bitcoin blockchain, known as the Genesis Block. The first real-world Bitcoin transaction occurred in May 2010, when programmer Laszlo Hanyecz paid 10,000 BTC for two pizzas—an event now celebrated annually as Bitcoin Pizza Day.

Blockchain and Beyond

Bitcoin’s success inspired the development of other cryptocurrencies and blockchain platforms. Ethereum, launched in 2015 by Vitalik Buterin, introduced smart contracts—self-executing agreements coded directly into the blockchain. This innovation expanded the use of cryptocurrency beyond simple transactions to decentralized applications (dApps), finance (DeFi), and even digital art (NFTs).

Other notable cryptocurrencies include Litecoin, Ripple (XRP), and Cardano, each offering unique features such as faster transaction speeds, improved scalability, or enhanced privacy.

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⚖️ Challenges and Controversies

Despite its promise, cryptocurrency has faced significant hurdles. Regulatory uncertainty, security breaches, and market volatility have raised concerns among governments and investors. High-profile hacks, such as the Mt. Gox exchange collapse in 2014, highlighted the risks associated with digital assets.

Governments around the world have responded differently—some embracing crypto innovation, others imposing strict regulations or outright bans. The rise of central bank digital currencies (CBDCs) reflects an effort to merge the benefits of crypto with the stability of fiat systems.

🚀 The Future of Crypto

Today, cryptocurrency is more than a niche technology—it’s a global phenomenon. Major companies accept Bitcoin, institutional investors hold crypto assets, and blockchain is being integrated into industries from healthcare to supply chain management.

As the technology matures, the focus is shifting toward scalability, sustainability, and interoperability. Whether it becomes a mainstream financial tool or remains a disruptive alternative, cryptocurrency has undeniably reshaped how we think about money, trust, and digital ownership.

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NFT: Non-Fungible Tokens Defined

Posted on October 23, 2025 by Dr. David Edward Marcinko MBA MEd CMP™

By Dr. David Edward Marcinko MBA MEd

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NFTs, or Non-Fungible Tokens, are unique digital assets stored on a blockchain that represent ownership of a specific item or piece of content. Unlike cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin or Ethereum, which are fungible and interchangeable, NFTs are one-of-a-kind and cannot be exchanged on a one-to-one basis.

In recent years, Non-Fungible Tokens (NFTs) have emerged as a groundbreaking innovation in the digital world, revolutionizing how we perceive ownership, art, and value online. At their core, NFTs are cryptographic tokens that represent a unique digital item or asset. These tokens are stored on a blockchain—a decentralized digital ledger—which ensures that each NFT is verifiable, traceable, and immutable.

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NFTs 101: Taxes, Risks, and More

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The term “non-fungible” means that each token is distinct and cannot be replaced with another token of equal value. This contrasts with fungible assets like dollars or cryptocurrencies, where each unit is identical and interchangeable. For example, one Bitcoin is always equal to another Bitcoin. However, each NFT has its own metadata, ownership history, and attributes, making it unique and often valuable.

NFTs can represent a wide range of digital content, including artwork, music, videos, virtual real estate, gaming items, and even tweets. Artists and creators have embraced NFTs as a new way to monetize their work, bypassing traditional gatekeepers like galleries and record labels. By minting their creations as NFTs, they can sell them directly to collectors and fans, often earning royalties from future resales thanks to smart contracts embedded in the blockchain.

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IRS: Tax Treatment of NFTs and Crypto-Currency

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One of the most popular blockchains for NFTs is Ethereum, which supports smart contracts and has a robust ecosystem for digital assets. Platforms like OpenSea, Rarible, and Foundation have become marketplaces where users can buy, sell, and trade NFTs. These platforms often require users to have a digital wallet and use cryptocurrency to complete transactions.

The rise of NFTs has sparked debates about their environmental impact, speculative nature, and long-term value. Critics argue that the energy consumption of blockchain networks can be significant, especially those using proof-of-work mechanisms. Others worry that the NFT market is driven by hype and may not sustain its current levels of interest and investment. Nonetheless, proponents believe that NFTs offer a new paradigm for digital ownership and creativity, empowering artists and reshaping industries from gaming to fashion.

In conclusion, NFTs represent a fusion of technology, art, and commerce, offering a novel way to own and trade digital assets. As the technology matures and adoption grows, NFTs may become a standard part of our digital lives, influencing how we interact with content, creators, and each other in the virtual world.

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Stock Markets, Commodities and Crypto-Currency

Posted on October 16, 2025 by Dr. David Edward Marcinko MBA MEd CMP™

By Staff Reporters and A.I.

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  • Stocks: Stock Market Indexes recovered yesterday from their losses, though the Dow remained in the red.
  • Commodities: Gold is rising above $4,200 to another new all-time high. Meanwhile, oil dropped to nearly a five-month low as trade tensions raised the specter of slowing economic growth.
  • Crypto: Bitcoin, ethereum, and altcoins of all shapes and sizes remain repressed after a massive selloff last weekend erased billions in crypto positions.

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Exploring the Dark Web: Myths & Realities

Posted on October 15, 2025 by Dr. David Edward Marcinko MBA MEd CMP™

By Staff Reporter and and A.I.

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The Dark Web: A Hidden Layer of the Internet

The internet is often described as an iceberg. The surface—what most users interact with daily—is the “surface web,” consisting of indexed websites accessible through standard search engines like Google or Bing. Beneath this lies the “deep web,” which includes content not indexed by search engines, such as private databases, academic journals, and password-protected sites. But even deeper still is the “dark web,” a hidden realm of the internet that requires special software to access and is often shrouded in mystery and controversy.

The dark web is accessible only through anonymizing networks like Tor (The Onion Router), which mask users’ identities and locations. This anonymity is both its greatest strength and most significant risk. Originally developed by the U.S. Navy to protect sensitive communications, Tor now serves as a gateway to a decentralized network where users can operate beyond the reach of traditional surveillance and censorship.

While the dark web is often associated with illegal activity—such as drug trafficking, weapons sales, and identity theft—it also serves legitimate purposes. Journalists, whistleblowers, and political dissidents in oppressive regimes use it to communicate safely and share information without fear of retaliation. Platforms like SecureDrop allow sources to submit documents anonymously to media outlets, helping expose corruption and injustice.

However, the dark web’s reputation is largely shaped by its criminal underbelly. Marketplaces like Silk Road, AlphaBay, and Hansa have been notorious for facilitating illicit trade. These platforms often use cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin to enable anonymous transactions. Law enforcement agencies around the world have responded with crackdowns, leading to arrests and shutdowns, but new sites frequently emerge to take their place.

The dual nature of the dark web presents a complex ethical dilemma. On one hand, it offers a haven for free speech and privacy in an increasingly monitored digital world. On the other, it enables activities that threaten public safety and national security. Governments and cybersecurity experts continue to grapple with how to regulate this space without infringing on civil liberties.

Understanding the dark web requires a nuanced perspective. It is not inherently evil, nor is it entirely virtuous. Like any tool, its impact depends on how it is used. As technology evolves, so too will the dark web, and society must remain vigilant in balancing the need for privacy with the imperative to prevent harm.

TOR: https://www.torproject.org/about/history/

In conclusion, the dark web is a multifaceted component of the internet that challenges our notions of freedom, security, and ethics. It serves as both a refuge for the vulnerable and a playground for the unscrupulous. As we navigate this hidden frontier, education and awareness are key to ensuring that its potential is harnessed responsibly.

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CRYPTO-CURRENCY: Crisis Risks

Posted on October 14, 2025 by Dr. David Edward Marcinko MBA MEd CMP™

By Staff Reporters and A.I.

SPONSOR: http://www.CertifiedMedialPlanner.org

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The Looming Cryptocurrency Crisis: Risks on the Horizon

Cryptocurrency has revolutionized the financial landscape, offering decentralized alternatives to traditional banking and investment systems. However, as digital assets become more integrated into global markets, concerns about a potential future cryptocurrency crisis are mounting. From regulatory uncertainty to systemic vulnerabilities, the risks associated with crypto are increasingly being scrutinized by economists, governments, and investors.

One of the most pressing concerns is regulatory instability. Cryptocurrencies operate in a fragmented legal environment, with different countries adopting varying stances—from full embrace to outright bans. The lack of unified global regulation creates loopholes that can be exploited for money laundering, tax evasion, and fraud. If major economies suddenly impose strict regulations or sanctions, it could trigger a rapid devaluation of crypto assets and erode investor confidence.

Another risk stems from market volatility and speculative behavior. Unlike traditional assets backed by tangible value or government guarantees, cryptocurrencies are often driven by hype, social media trends, and speculative trading. This creates a fragile ecosystem where prices can swing wildly. A sudden crash—similar to the 2022 Terra/Luna collapse—could wipe out billions in investor wealth and destabilize related financial institutions.

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Technological vulnerabilities also pose a threat. While blockchain is considered secure, the platforms built on it are not immune to hacks, bugs, or exploitation. High-profile breaches of exchanges and wallets have already resulted in massive losses. As crypto adoption grows, so does the incentive for cybercriminals to target these systems. A coordinated attack on a major exchange or blockchain network could have cascading effects across the entire crypto economy. Geopolitical tensions may also catalyze a crisis. For instance, recent reports suggest that aggressive trade policies—such as the U.S. imposing 100% tariffs on Chinese imports—can indirectly impact crypto markets by shaking investor sentiment and triggering sell-offs.

The interconnection with traditional finance is another area of concern. As banks and hedge funds increasingly invest in crypto, the line between decentralized finance and conventional markets blurs. This integration means that a crypto collapse could spill over into broader financial systems, potentially triggering a global crisis. The 2023 banking collapses, which were partially linked to crypto exposure, serve as a warning of how intertwined these systems have become.

Geopolitical tensions may also catalyze a crisis. For instance, recent reports suggest that aggressive trade policies—such as the U.S. imposing 100% tariffs on Chinese imports—can indirectly impact crypto markets by shaking investor sentiment and triggering sell-offs. In such scenarios, cryptocurrencies may not serve as the safe haven they were once believed to be.

Lastly, overreliance on stablecoins and algorithmic assets introduces systemic risk. Many investors use stablecoins to hedge volatility, but these assets are only as stable as their underlying reserves and governance. If a major stablecoin fails, it could lead to a liquidity crunch and panic across exchanges and DeFi platforms.

In conclusion, while cryptocurrency offers transformative potential, it also carries significant risks that could culminate in a future crisis. To mitigate these dangers, stakeholders must push for clearer regulations, stronger technological safeguards, and more transparent financial practices. Without proactive measures, the next financial meltdown may not come from Wall Street—but from the blockchain.

NOTE: A crypto mogul has been found dead inside his luxury car in Ukraine after the digital currency market nosedived. Konstantin Galich, 32, also known as Kostya Kudo, has died after one of the worst turmoils shook the cryptocurrency market. The entrepreneur, who became a well-known figure in the crypto industry, was reportedly found with a gunshot wound to his head in his black Lamborghini parked up in Kyiv’s Obolonskyi neighbourhood. His death was later confirmed on his Telegram channel in a post saying ‘Konstantin Kudo tragically passed away. The causes are being investigated. We will keep you posted on any further news.’

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Stocks, Commodities, Japan & France

Posted on October 7, 2025 by Dr. David Edward Marcinko MBA MEd CMP™

By A.I.

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  • Stocks: The S&P 500 hit its seventh record close in a row today, its longest win streak since May. The NASDAQ was buoyed by big tech, while the DJIA fell.
  • Commodities: Oil climbed thanks to a decision by OPEC+ to boost crude production at a more modest rate than experts expected. Gold continued its record run, rising above $3,900 for the first time ever, while bitcoin hovered just below a new all-time high.
  • Japan and France: Japanese stocks rose after the country elected its first female prime minister, and French stocks dropped after its prime minister quit less than a month into the job.

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Stocks, Crypto-Currency and Commodities

Posted on September 5, 2025 by Dr. David Edward Marcinko MBA MEd CMP™

By A.I. and Staff Reporters

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  • Stocks: Equities climbed slowly but steadily yesterday as investors braced themselves for today’s all-important jobs report.
  • Crypto: Bitcoin fell as a selloff in cryptocurrencies associated with the Trump family pulled the entire crypto market lower.
  • Commodities: Gold remains in the spotlight as traders bulk up on bullion to protect their portfolios in case the FOMC loses its independence. If that does happen, Goldman Sachs analysts think gold could climb to $5,000.

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DAILY UPDATE: “Crypto-Week” as Stock Markets End Mixed

Posted on July 19, 2025 by Dr. David Edward Marcinko MBA MEd CMP™

MEDICAL EXECUTIVE-POST – TODAY’S NEWSLETTER BRIEFING

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Essays, Opinions and Curated News in Health Economics, Investing, Business, Management and Financial Planning for Physician Entrepreneurs and their Savvy Advisors and Consultants

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CITE: https://www.r2library.com/Resource

“Crypto Week” got back on track after House GOP lawmakers convinced the holdouts in their party to help advance a series of crypto-friendly bills.

Crypto: Although bitcoin fell after the president signed the GENIUS Act into law, ether rose to its highest price in six months today, while enthusiasm for the new legislation pushed total crypto assets above $4 trillion.

CITE: https://tinyurl.com/2h47urt5

What’s up stocks

  • Talen Energy soared 24.48% on the news that the independent energy producer is acquiring two new power plants.
  • Interactive Brokers surged 7.77% after the broker increased the number of customer accounts by 32% last quarter as traders played market volatility.
  • Speaking of trading, Charles Schwab gained 2.87% after opening more than 1 million new brokerage accounts last quarter gave it a 23% boost in trading revenue.
  • Burberry popped 4.42% thanks to a turnaround in the luxury goods maker’s business, including a 4% increase in American sales last quarter.
  • Quantumscape continued to climb yet again, rising another 7.65% as investors pour money into the battery maker.
  • Invesco jumped 15.28% on reports that the asset manager is asking shareholders of its popular QQQ fund to let it revamp its fund structure to increase fee revenue.
  • Crypto companies continued to have a great week as key legislation passed its final barrier in Congress. Coinbase climbed 2.2%, Robinhood Markets rose 4.07%, and Galaxy Digital gained 4.19%.

What’s down stocks

  • Netflix fell 5.1% after the streaming giant reported a strong quarter but warned that its operating margin will take a hit in the second half of the year.
  • Sarepta Therapeutics plunged 35.94% after the biotech reported a third patient death during its Phase 1 study of its new gene therapy.
  • American Express sank 2.35% despite a strong quarter of spending among cardholders that helped the credit card company notch record quarterly revenue.
  • 3M also fell 3.65% in spite of beating Wall Street’s forecasts and raising its earnings guidance.

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Visualize: How private equity tangled banks in a web of debt, from the Financial Times.

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Crypto-Currency and the Stock Markets

Posted on July 18, 2025 by Dr. David Edward Marcinko MBA MEd CMP™

By A.I.

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  • Markets: Stocks slid lower today even as a preliminary survey revealed that consumer sentiment hit its highest point since February, while inflation expectations fell to pre-tariff levels. The selloff deepened on reports that President Trump wants 15% to 20% tariffs against the EU, though the NASDAQ managed to eke out a win.
  • Crypto: Although bitcoin fell after the president signed the GENIUS Act into law, ether rose to its highest price in six months today, while enthusiasm for the new legislation pushed total crypto assets above $4 trillion.

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Stocks, Crypto & Stock Markets

Posted on July 16, 2025 by Dr. David Edward Marcinko MBA MEd CMP™

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By A.I.

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  • The Fed Drama: A White House official said President Trump will likely fire Jerome Powell soon. Stocks sank at the thought of the Fed head being shown the door, offsetting the pleasant surprise of a flat wholesale inflation reading.
  • Markets: Stocks managed to recoup their losses after Trump said it’s “highly unlikely” that he will fire Powell, but bonds remained shaken.
  • Crypto: Bitcoin bounced higher after the crypto bills currently under consideration in the House of Representatives cleared a key hurdle.

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Bitcoin, Stocks, Oil, Gold and Silver

Posted on July 12, 2025 by Dr. David Edward Marcinko MBA MEd CMP™

By A.I.

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  • Stocks: The major Wall Street stock indexes languished. The S&P pulled back from its record high to close the week just a bit lower, but the NASDAQ managed to post a gain across the week.
  • Crypto: Bitcoin hit a new high-water mark above $118,000. Next week, July 14th, Congress hosts “Crypto Week” to discuss regulating the industry in a growth-oriented manner.
  • Commodities: Silver rose to its highest level since 2011, and it’s been even hotter than gold. The metal is up ~27% this year. Oil, meanwhile, ticked higher on speculation that President Trump will place more sanctions on Russia early next week.

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Goldman Sachs and Bitcoin

Posted on July 11, 2025 by Dr. David Edward Marcinko MBA MEd CMP™

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By A.I.

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Bitcoin notched another all-time record yesterday, beating the previous record that was set two days ago.

Goldman Sachs plans to ask junior bankers to certify their loyalty every three months in order to prevent poaching by private equity firms, Bloomberg reported.

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Stocks, Commodities and Crypto-Currency

Posted on July 10, 2025 by Dr. David Edward Marcinko MBA MEd CMP™

By A.I.

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  • Stocks: Jobless claims came in lower than expected, the 30-year US bond auction met with strong demand, and Delta Airlines unofficially kicking off earnings season with a solid report. The S&P 500 and the NASDAQ hit record highs.
  • Crypto: Bitcoin reached a record high for the second day in a row, hitting $113,863.31 today. The crypto’s price has stayed above $100k for 60 consecutive days.
  • Commodities: Coffee futures in New York climbed as much as 3.5% in response to President Trump’s threat to slap 50% tariffs on Brazil, which is the top producer of higher-end arabica coffee.

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Stocks, US Dollar, Gold and Crypto

Posted on June 24, 2025 by Dr. David Edward Marcinko MBA MEd CMP™

By AI

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  • Stocks: Markets rose tentatively to start the week after the US bombed three nuclear facilities in Iran over the weekend. The rally gained steam in the afternoon after Iran launched a missile strike against a US airbase in Qatar, leaving no US casualties and keeping a path to de-escalation intact.
  • Safe havens: The US dollar rose to its highest level in nearly a month this morning, up from a three-year low last week, as investors sought safety. Meanwhile, gold inched higher despite pressure from a stronger dollar, a sure sign of investor tension.
  • Crypto: Bitcoin fell dangerously close to the key support level of $100,000 before recovering later in the day as traders took a risk-on stance.

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Stocks, Commodities and Crypto-Currency

Posted on June 14, 2025 by Dr. David Edward Marcinko MBA MEd CMP™

By AI

BREAKING NEWS

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DAILY UPDATE: Stocks, Commodities & Crypto-Currency

Posted on June 11, 2025 by Dr. David Edward Marcinko MBA MEd CMP™

MEDICAL EXECUTIVE-POST – TODAY’S NEWSLETTER BRIEFING

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🟢 What’s up

  • Tesla climbed another 5.67% on signs that Elon Musk and President Trump are mending fences and on hype around the robotaxi reveal this week.
  • TSMC rose 2.63% after the semiconductor company reported that its revenue in the month of May rose 39.6% year over year.
  • Disney rose 2.65% higher a day after agreeing to purchase Comcast’s stake in streaming service Hulu for $438.7 million. Comcast climbed 2.95%.
  • Solar stocks got a bit of hope after the Wall Street Journal reported that tech companies are lobbying Congress to keep clean energy subsidies in the tax and spending bill. SolarEdge rose 11.81%, and Sunrun gained 7.13%.
  • Insmed exploded 28.65% thanks to strong results for the biopharma company’s new treatment for pulmonary arterial hypertension.
  • Casey’s General Store rose 11.59% after the retailer crushed Wall Street’s profit expectations last quarter and raised its dividend.

What’s down

  • J.M. Smucker tumbled 15.59% on mixed earnings results and a weaker-than-expected fiscal forecast for the snack foods company.
  • McDonald’s lost 1.43% thanks to a double downgrade from Redburn Atlantic analysts, who think the fast food titan’s slowing foot traffic and headwinds from obesity drugs will hurt its growth. That’s the company’s third downgrade in three days.
  • Snap fell just 0.12% after the social media company unveiled its new augmented reality glasses.
  • Calavo Growers plunged 16.26% after the avocado distributor reported much worse quarterly results than Wall Street was expecting.
  • Biopharma stocks Liquidia and United Therapeutics lost 16.87% and 14.32%, respectively, on competitor Insmed’s good news.

CITE: https://tinyurl.com/2h47urt5

  • Stocks: Markets meandered higher as investors awaited news from ongoing US & China trade negotiations in London. Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick said talks were going well and could continue into tomorrow.
  • Commodities: Oil soared to its highest price since April on hopes that a trade deal between the world’s largest economies could spur demand, but plunged back to earth after the US said oil output will fall next year.
  • Crypto: After just barely holding on last week, Bitcoin has now stayed above $100,000 for 30 days straight for the first time ever—a signal to traders that there’s a new level of support for the crypto king.

CITE: https://tinyurl.com/tj8smmes

Visualize: How private equity tangled banks in a web of debt, from the Financial Times.

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DAILY UPDATE: UnitedHealth Group and Crypto Up as Stock Markets Spike

Posted on May 30, 2025 by Dr. David Edward Marcinko MBA MEd CMP™

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Essays, Opinions and Curated News in Health Economics, Investing, Business, Management and Financial Planning for Physician Entrepreneurs and their Savvy Advisors and Consultants

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UnitedHealth Group improperly uses workers’ funds to reduce its own 401(k) contributions, according to a lawsuit against the nation’s largest health insurer that is seeking class-action status. The company denies the claims. It’s just one in a string of lawsuits facing the beleaguered company. 

CITE: https://tinyurl.com/2h47urt5

🟢 What’s up

  • Boeing climbed 3.32% after CEO Kelly Ortberg laid out his turnaround plan for the struggling aircraft manufacturer, including ramping up production of its 737 Max.
  • C3.ai exploded 20.76% higher thanks to a smaller-than-expected loss last quarter and strong revenue growth for the enterprise AI company.
  • Veeva Systems soared 18.74% after the cloud computing company beat Wall Street estimates on both the top and bottom lines.
  • E.l.f. Beauty popped 23.58% thanks to better-than-expected earnings, as well as the news that it will acquire Haley Bieber’s beauty brand Rhode for up to $1 billion.
  • Moderna rose 3.38% despite the Trump administration pulling $766 million in funding for a new bird flu vaccine.
  • Li Auto climbed 2.11% after beating first-quarter forecasts, though the Chinese EV company issued disappointing guidance.

What’s down

  • Salesforce posted a beat-and-raise earnings report, but it wasn’t good enough for shareholders, and the software giant sank 3.30%.
  • HP reported solid revenue last quarter, but missed on profits and issued worse-than-expected guidance for the coming year, pushing shares down 8.27%
  • Kohl’s fell 0.74% after posting solid sales and a smaller-than-anticipated earnings loss.
  • Best Buy tumbled 7.27% after beating earnings estimates but missing on revenue and warning that it’s cutting its fiscal forecast and likely raising prices.
  • SentinelOne fell 11.59% after the cybersecurity company missed revenue estimates and issued a lower sales forecast than Wall Street wanted to see.

CITE: https://tinyurl.com/tj8smmes

  • There are now 114 publicly listed companies that own bitcoin, up from 89 at the beginning of April, according to BitcoinTreasuries.net.
  • Bitcoin’s price jumped nearly 50% from a low of ~$75,000 to an all-time high of nearly $112,000 over roughly the same period.

Visualize: How private equity tangled banks in a web of debt, from the Financial Times.

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DAILY UPDATE: Stocks End Day Mixed

Posted on May 23, 2025 by Dr. David Edward Marcinko MBA MEd CMP™

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  • Stocks wavered throughout the day as the 10-year Treasury yield rose back above 4.5%, making a convincing argument for investors to buy risk-free bonds with big yields rather than equities.
  • Yields on both 20-year and 30-year Treasuries traded above 5% after the Republican tax and spending bill passed the House, raising fears of a bigger US deficit and lower creditworthiness in the years ahead.
  • Bitcoin continued to climb last night, hitting a new record high of $111,886.41 in the wee hours of the morning before losing some ground throughout the trading session today.

CITE: https://tinyurl.com/2h47urt5

What’s up

  • Nike gained 2.30% on the news that it will begin selling its shoes on Amazon for the first time since 2019.
  • Fannie Mae popped 46.73% and Freddie Mac jumped 42.50% on President Trump’s comments that he’s seriously considering bringing the mortgage giants public.
  • Advance Auto Parts exploded 57.14% higher after better-than-feared earnings made it clear that its turnaround plan is working.
  • Urban Outfitters soared 22.84% after reporting EPS of $1.16 last quarter, far better than the $0.84 per share analysts had forecast.
  • Snowflake gained 13.47% thanks to a strong first quarter and management’s expectation that revenue will rise about 25% this quarter.

What’s down

  • Walmart lost 0.48% on the news that it will cut 1,500 jobs in a corporate restructuring.
  • Analog Devices fell 4.63% even though the semiconductor maker beat Wall Street estimates on both sales and profits last quarter.
  • Health insurance stocks took a hit on reports that the US government will conduct “aggressive” Medicare Advantage audits. Humana sank 7.58%, UnitedHealth Group fell 2.08%, and CVS Health dropped 3.06%.

CITE: https://tinyurl.com/tj8smmes

Visualize: How private equity tangled banks in a web of debt, from the Financial Times.

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DAILY UPDATE: Stock Markets Collapse!

Posted on May 22, 2025 by Dr. David Edward Marcinko MBA MEd CMP™

MEDICAL EXECUTIVE-POST – TODAY’S NEWSLETTER BRIEFING

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  • While stocks usually steal headlines, all eyes were on the bond market today. The 10-year bond yield popped back above 4.5% first thing this morning while the 30-year rose above 5% as fears of larger deficits due to the Republican tax and spending bill gave investors pause. A poorly received auction of $16 billion in 20-year bonds this afternoon only pushed yields higher.
  • Bitcoin climbed to a new all-time high early in the trading session, touching $109,500 at one point today as investors continue to search for alternatives to bonds and the US dollar.
  • Crude oil climbed to its highest price in a month on reports of flaring tensions between Israel and Iran, then tumbled lower after the US announced surprisingly high oil inventories.

CITE: https://tinyurl.com/2h47urt5

What’s up

  • Silly goose: Outdoor apparel maker Canada Goose soared 19.35% after reporting a stellar first quarter.
  • Alphabet rose 2.79% following a slew of big announcements at its developer conference, including a revamped AI Search.
  • Xpeng popped 13.06% thanks to a smaller-than-expected loss last quarter for the Chinese EV maker.
  • WeRide soared 21.42% on the announcement that the robotaxi will buy back $100 million of its stock.

What’s down

  • UnitedHealth Group secretly paid nursing homes to transfer fewer people to hospitals so it could cut costs, according to The Guardian. Shares understandably tumbled 5.79%.
  • Target missed the mark last quarter, with fewer transactions thanks to DEI boycotts leading to lower sales and profits, pushing shares down 5.21%.
  • Lowe’s sank 1.77% despite sticking to its full-year guidance, noting that sales to professionals will pad its bottom line.
  • Palo Alto Network may have beaten analysts’ estimates for sales and profits, but the cybersecurity company still fell 6.80% due to thinner margins.
  • Take-Two Interactive sank 4.52% after the video game maker put $1 billion in common stock on the market.
  • Fair Isaac caught strays today from a Trump Administration official who was displeased by the credit analytics company’s decision to raise royalty fees.
  • Carter’s crashed 15.74% on the announcement that the children’s clothing retailer will slash its dividend due to higher costs from tariffs.
  • Airline stocks tumbled after the FAA limited flights in and out of Newark Airport. United Airlines fell 3.93%, Southwest Airlines lost 2.35%, and American Airlines sank 3.52%.
  • Wolfspeed, easily the best-named stock on the market, may go bankrupt. Shares of the semiconductor supplier dropped 59.11%.

CITE: https://tinyurl.com/tj8smmes

Visualize: How private equity tangled banks in a web of debt, from the Financial Times.

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DAILY UPDATE: Stock Markets Down Slightly

Posted on May 21, 2025 by Dr. David Edward Marcinko MBA MEd CMP™

MEDICAL EXECUTIVE-POST – TODAY’S NEWSLETTER BRIEFING

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  • The S&P 500 snapped a 6-day winning streak as the rally following the US & China tariff ceasefire faded and investors looked elsewhere for buying signals.
  • Federal Reserve speeches abound this week, with several central bankers warning of an economy under duress.
  • Both gold and bitcoin consolidated their recent gains, offering investors alternatives to suddenly not-so-safe bonds and a sagging US dollar.

CITE: https://tinyurl.com/2h47urt5

What’s up

  • Tesla climbed 0.51% after CEO Elon Musk committed to spending the next five years running the EV manufacturer.
  • Moderna popped 6.06% after the FDA announced new limits on Covid-19 vaccine approvals that were more lenient than expected.
  • Warby Parker soared 15.57% on news of a partnership with Google to create smart glasses.
  • Pony AI rose 5.74% after the Chinese auto maker posted impressive earnings and cited high demand for autonomous taxi rides.
  • Amer Sports surged 19.05% after the athletic equipment maker posted a strong beat-and-raise earnings announcement.
  • D-Wave Quantum soared 25.93% after the quantum computing company unveiled its newest computing system.
  • Levi Strauss & Co. rose 1.42% on the news that the jeans company is selling Dockers to Authentic Brands Group for $311 million.

What’s down

  • Home Depot fell just 0.61% after the home renovation retailer missed earnings estimates, beat revenue forecasts, kept its fiscal guidance intact, and said it won’t raise prices.
  • Airbnb tumbled 3.27% after Spain ordered the company to take down over 65,000 listings.
  • Uber sagged 0.66% despite an upgrade from JPMorgan analysts and the news that it’s partnering with Waymo to offer robotaxis in Atlanta.
  • Viking Holdings sank 4.99% despite earnings and sales beating estimates, but investors didn’t like hearing that the the cruise line operator transported fewer passengers last quarter than expected.
  • AES lost 4.05% after the solar stock was downgraded by Jefferies analysts, who are worried about lower demand for renewable energy.

CITE: https://tinyurl.com/tj8smmes

Visualize: How private equity tangled banks in a web of debt, from the Financial Times.

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AI “Demolition Man” ID

Posted on May 4, 2025 by Dr. David Edward Marcinko MBA MEd CMP™

By Staff Reporters

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If getting answers from ChatGPT makes you feel dystopian, you may not want to hear about OpenAI CEO Sam Altman’s other co-founded venture, now rolling out stateside. It scans your eyeballs in exchange for cryptocurrency.

What in the Demolition Man? The device, which creates a unique user ID for your scan, is meant to address a problem that Altman had a hand in creating: how to verify identities and confirm humanity in a world full of artificial intelligence.

The project, called World (formerly Worldcoin), went live in other countries in 2023. Its US expansion, announced this week, featured retail outlets in five cities where you can get your eyes scanned:

  • Tools for Humanity, the company behind the orbs, says 12+ million people around the world have participated so far.
  • It claims to keep your data private, but authorities in more than a dozen places have suspended World’s operations or investigated its data practices, per the WSJ.

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DAILY UPDATE: Stocks Mixed and End Flat

Posted on April 29, 2025 by Dr. David Edward Marcinko MBA MEd CMP™

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What’s up

  • Plug Power soared 25.68% on the news that the hydrogen fuel cell manufacturer has signed a deal that allows it to issue $525 million in secured debentures.
  • Tesla eked out a 0.33% gain as investors took profits following the EV company’s strong week in spite of terrible earnings.
  • IBM rose 1.61% after the tech company pledged to invest $150 billion in US manufacturing over the next five years.
  • Peloton climbed 4.93% thanks to an upgrade from Truist analysts, who said the home workout company has cleaned up the “BS.”
  • MGM Resorts International gained 1.71% after reporting an impressive 34% increase in revenue last quarter thanks to its BetMGM platform.
  • ADMA Biologics popped 12.12% on FDA approval of its new production process that draws 20% more usable material from donated plasma than current methods.

What’s down

  • Nvidia sank 2.05% on the news that China’s Huawei Technologies is preparing to test a new semiconductor that could rival Nvidia’s most powerful tech.
  • Coinbase fell 2.08% on a double downgrade from Compass Point analysts, who cited a decline in retail trading activity.
  • DraftKings dropped 1.51% after Mizuho analysts lowered their price target on the company, cutting their expectations for the gambling stock’s EBITDA.

CITE: https://tinyurl.com/tj8smmes

Visualize: How private equity tangled banks in a web of debt, from the Financial Times.

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NEWS IN BRIEF: Financial, Investing, Economics and IT

Posted on April 26, 2025 by Dr. David Edward Marcinko MBA MEd CMP™

BREAKING NEWS

By Staff Reporters

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  • Spot bitcoin ETFs saw their highest inflows since January over the last few days, sparking a crypto rally.
  • The Federal Reserve withdrew its guidance for banks about engaging in crypto-related business.
  • California is now the fourth-largest economy in the world.
  • OpenAI expects its revenue to reach $125 billion in 2029, up from $3.7 billion last year.
  • The median pay for CEOs rose to a record $16.8 million in 2024.
  • Meta Platforms is laying off staff working in its virtual reality division.
  • Apple announced it’s shifting its iPhone production from China to India.

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DAILY UPDATE: OpenAI, FDA, Roche & Rite Aid as Stocks Soar

Posted on April 24, 2025 by Dr. David Edward Marcinko MBA MEd CMP™

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  • OpenAI would be open to buying Chrome if Google is forced by a federal court to sell the web browser, the company’s ChatGPT head said yesterday.
  • The FDA suspended milk quality tests in some dairy products due to reduced capacity stemming from federal workforce cuts, Reuters reported.
  • Roche, the Swiss pharmaceutical giant, is investing $50 billion in US manufacturing to circumvent President Trump’s tariffs, the company said yesterday.
  • Rite Aid is preparing to sell itself in pieces ahead of a possible second bankruptcy, Bloomberg reported.

CITE: https://tinyurl.com/2h47urt5

What’s up

  • Intel surged 5.54% on reports that the chipmaker plans to cut 20% of its workforce.
  • Oklo gained 8.60% after OpenAI CEO Sam Altman announced he’s stepping down as chairman of the board of the nuclear power startup.
  • Duolingo popped 10.01% after Morgan Stanley initiated coverage of the language learning company, calling it a “best-in-class consumer internet asset.”
  • Cava climbed 6.29% due to an upgrade from analysts at Bernstein, who think the bowl slop stock will not only survive but thrive in an economic downturn.
  • Amphenol rose 8.21% thanks to impressive earnings for the high-speed cable company, coupled with a solid fiscal outlook.
  • Vertiv Holdings jumped 8.60% after the data center company posted an impressive quarterly profit and raised its fiscal forecast.
  • SAP rose 7.47% following the software stock’s strong profit performance last quarter.
  • Novavax soared 19.52% on the news that the FDA has asked for more clinical data about its Covid vaccine.

What’s down

  • Enphase Energy plunged 15.65% thanks to a big miss on both the top and bottom lines for the solar tech stock.
  • Going down: Elevator manufacturer Otis Worldwide fell 6.64% on an earnings miss thanks to fewer orders from Chinese customers.
  • Online learning platform Chubb fell 2.17% after announcing a 38% decline in net income last quarter.
  • Baker Hughes may have beaten profit forecasts last quarter, but the oilfield operator’s revenue miss sent shares tumbling 6.44%.
  • Bristol Myers Squibb lost 2.59% after the pharma giant announced its schizophrenia drug Cobenfy performed poorly in Phase 3 trials.

CITE: https://tinyurl.com/tj8smmes

  • Stocks surged first thing this morning after President Trump said the media blew things out of proportion and that he has “no intention” of firing Jerome Powell. He also said he would be “very nice” to China in tariff negotiations.
  • Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent also did some damage control, touting the opportunity for a “big deal” between the US and China.
  • The combination sent a relief rally sweeping through markets, and while the euphoria faded by mid-afternoon, all three indexes ended the day in the green.
  • Gold fell and bitcoin rose as investors took on more risk (see below), while oil dropped on reports that OPEC+ may hike its crude output after its meeting next month.

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DAILY UPDATE: Bitcoin and Stock Markets Soar

Posted on April 23, 2025 by Dr. David Edward Marcinko MBA MEd CMP™

MEDICAL EXECUTIVE-POST – TODAY’S NEWSLETTER BRIEFING

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Bitcoin climbed above $90,000 for the first time since March as investors search for alternatives anywhere they can find them.

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Stocks came off of their highs yesterday afternoon trading after US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent reportedly said in a private speech for JPMorgan Chase that talks between the United States and China had yet to formally start and that negotiations will likely be a “slog.”

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Still, US stocks soared on Tuesday following a bruising day on Wall Street, as investors built hope for deescalation on several fronts of President Trump’s trade battles.

Still, markets delivered solid gains with Dow Jones Industrial Average (^DJI) adding over 1,000 points as the benchmark S&P 500 (^GSPC) and tech-heavy NASDAQ (^IXIC) each rose around 2.5% and 2.7%, respectively.

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Prior to Bessent’s reported comments, stocks hit earlier session highs as Bloomberg reported the treasury secretary told a closed-door investor summit Tuesday that “the tariff standoff with China is unsustainable and that he expects the situation to de-escalate.”

🟢 What’s up

  • Amazon rose 3.5% a day after Wells Fargo analysts revealed that the tech giant has paused some of its data center leases, the latest sign of an AI trade slowdown.
  • The DOJ has called for a breakup of Alphabet’s business. Investors don’t seem to mind: Shares of the search giant rose 2.57%.
  • Boeing gained 2% after announcing it will sell portions of its digital aviation solutions business to Thoma Bravo for $10.55 billion.
  • Ford is up 1.90% a day after reports emerged that it has stopped shipping cars to China.
  • 3M gained 8.12% after the industrial manufacturing giant beat Wall Street’s expectations in the first quarter.
  • Coreweave rose 8.74% after several Wall Street analysts initiated coverage of the newly public cloud computing company. While the pros lean toward bullish, the stock’s reception has been largely mixed.
  • Equifax soared 13.84% following strong results for the credit rating company, as well as its announcement of a $3 billion buyback program.
  • BP managed to gain 2.81% after regulatory filings revealed that Elliott Investment Management has accrued a 5% stake in the oil giant.
  • Verizon eked out a 0.61% gain after it beat Wall Street forecasts for the first quarter but lost more postpaid net phone subscribers than expected.

What’s down

  • Halliburton disappointed shareholders with a decline in both revenue and profits last quarter, sending the oil service company’s shares 5.57% lower.
  • Defense contractors tumbled after reporting mixed earnings. RTX lost 9.81%, and Northrop Grumman sank 12.66%.
  • Medpace Holdings crumbled 2.32% after the clinical research company revealed a 19% decline in net new business awards last quarter.

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REPUTATIONAL BANKRUPTCY: Of the American Dollar

Posted on April 9, 2025 by Dr. David Edward Marcinko MBA MEd CMP™

By Vitaliy Katsenelson CFA

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The Reputational Bankruptcy of the American Dollar
I am in an unenviable position. The policy coming out of the White House has a significant impact on economics, more than ever before in my career. If I say anything positive about that policy, I’ll be put in the MAGA camp. If I criticize it, I’ll be accused of suffering from Trump derangement syndrome. I am hired by you to make the best investment decisions possible. Rather than see me as engaged in political commentary, I’d ask that you view my remarks as purely analytical.

Let me give you this analogy. I live in Denver. Let’s imagine I am a huge Broncos fan, and the Broncos are playing the Chicago Bears. If I am betting a significant amount of money on this game, I should put my affinity for the Broncos and hatred of the Chicago Bears aside and analyze data and facts. The Broncos are either going to win or lose; my wanting them to win has zero impact on the outcome. The same applies to my analysis here. My motto in life is Seneca’s saying, “Time discovers truth.” I just try to discover it before time does.

When it comes to politics, I also have a significant advantage. I was not born in this country. From a young age, I was brainwashed about communism, not about team Republican versus team Democrat. The failure of the Soviet Union de-brainwashed me fast concerning the virtues of communism and converted me into a believer in free markets.

As a result, I never bought into either party’s ideology, and thus in the last four presidential elections I voted for a Republican, an independent, a Democrat, and wrote in my youngest daughter, Mia Sarah (not in that order). In my articles I have criticized the policies of both Biden (student loan forgiveness, unions) and Trump (Bitcoin reserve).

I remind myself that in times like these you have to be a nuanced thinker. Some of Trump’s policies are terrific, others … not so much (I am being diplomatic here).

Scott Fitzgerald once said “The test of a first-rate intelligence is the ability to hold two opposed ideas in mind at the same time, and still retain the ability to function.” In 2025 we are taking this “first-rate intelligence” test daily.

What will happen to the US dollar? The US dollar will likely continue to get weaker, which is inflationary for the US. Let me start with some easily identifiable reasons:

We have too much debt. We ran 6-7% budget deficits while our economy was growing and unemployment was at record lows. Now we have $36 trillion in debt. Our interest expenses exceed our defense spending, and these costs will continue to climb. If/when we go into recession, we may see something we have not seen in a long time – higher interest rates. Our budget deficits will balloon to between 9–12%, and the debt market, realizing that inflation (i.e., money printing) is inevitable, will say, “Pay up!”

New competition from Bitcoin. President Trump’s approval of Bitcoin as a potential reserve currency is one of the most self-serving and anti-American things I’ve seen any president do. The US dollar is the world’s reserve currency. We still have little competition for that title. China could be a contender, but it is not a democracy and has capital controls. This policy has no upside for America, only downside.

A stronger Europe. Ironically, we may inadvertently create a stronger Europe by threatening to abandon NATO. I don’t want to insult European clients (or my European friends), but the following analogy describes the US-Europe relationship on some level: Europe gradually evolved into a trust fund kid (when it came to security) and the US turned into its sugar daddy. The trust fund kid was incredibly dependent on the sugar daddy. It criticized its parent for being a barbarian and money-driven, but it relied heavily on that parent to protect it from bullies.

President Trump cut off Europe’s allowance by threatening that the US might not protect Europe from Russia. This has forced Europe to spend more money on defense. Outside of Germany (which has little debt), few European economies can afford that. This may force Europe (or at least some European countries) to become more pragmatic – to cut social programs and bureaucracy. If this leads to a stronger Europe both economically and militarily, the euro will be competing with the US dollar. This is a big if.

Our new foreign policy.

When people describe President Trump’s foreign policy as “transactional,” they’re highlighting a fundamental shift in how America engages with the world – one with profound implications for our global standing, national interests, and the US dollar. The shift affects both types of capital – financial and reputational.

Reputational capital isn’t at risk in ‘one-shot’ transactions like house selling. Imagine you’re selling your primary residence and moving elsewhere. Do you disclose every flaw, or let the buyer figure things out? Your incentive is to maximize short-term profits. You’ll likely never meet this buyer again, and therefore there are incentives not to care what they’ll think of you afterward. You’ll be transactional, seeking the highest price possible for your biggest asset. This exemplifies a ‘one-shot’ system where future interactions aren’t expected.

Contrast this with a relationship- and trust-based system. Now imagine you are a homebuilder in a small town. Your suppliers only extend credit if you have a reputation for paying on time. Your employees do quality work only if you treat them fairly. Your buyers tell friends about their experience with you. The incentives naturally create a relational approach. In this trust-based system, incentives skew toward maximizing long-term profits, where reputational capital becomes the glue creating continuity.

Reputational capital radiates predictability – you know how someone will behave based on their history – but operating with low or negative reputational capital is difficult and expensive. People won’t enter long-term contracts with you or will demand external guarantees. Many potential partners will simply refuse to deal with you.

Building reputational capital works like adding pennies to a jar – each good deed incrementally adds to your standing. Yet reputational capital can collapse instantly by removing the jar’s bottom. A single breach of trust doesn’t just remove one penny; it can wipe out your entire balance and plunge you into reputational bankruptcy. The math is brutally asymmetric: good deeds might add a point or two, while bad deeds subtract by factors of 50 or 100.

This doesn’t mean transactions shouldn’t be profitable. If you’re accumulating reputational capital while consistently losing money, you’re probably in the wrong business. Each deal should be evaluated considering both long-term financial and reputational capital.

Individual transactions can sacrifice some profit but cannot afford to lose reputational capital. A “one-shot” transactional approach used in a trust-system environment may provide greater short-term profitability, but if this success comes at the expense of reputational capital, the long-term consequences for America’s global position could be devastating.

This brings us to our current foreign policy.

Relationships between nations are a trust-based system. I’d argue it’s a super-relational system because it’s multigenerational, lasting beyond the life of any one human. Reputational capital is paramount here.

Part of the US’s strength has been the soft power – the reputational capital – it exerted. We had a lot of friends, which helped us to be more effective in dealing with our foes. We keep telling ourselves that America is an “exceptional” nation. This exceptionalism didn’t just come from our financial and military might – it accumulated based on our reputational capital.

Though we don’t always succeed, we are a people who try to do the right thing. Our exceptionalism has been earned through our actions. We are the country that helped rebuild Europe and gave it six decades to repay lend-lease. We toppled communism.

I don’t know the nuances of the Ukraine mineral deal, but initially it had the optics of extortion. Though I think the renegotiated and signed version appears to be fair to both sides, forcing repayment while Ukraine is dodging Russian missiles made the US look transactional.

Actions by President Trump over the last month have undermined our reputation. We are quickly becoming a “one-shot” transactional player in a trust-based environment. Imposing tariffs on Canada on a whim to try to get it to become the 51st state erodes American reputational capital. So does not ruling out America invading Greenland. This puts us on the same moral plane as Russia invading Ukraine.

The conversation about tariffs has many nuances. For instance, I don’t know anyone who opposes reciprocal tariffs – they seem fair and don’t consume any reputational capital. But tariffs that are used as weapons in a trade war in order to annex another country erode reputational capital. Threatening to leave NATO and not protect countries that don’t spend enough on their defense diminishes reputational capital. Maybe the only way to get European countries to spend on defense was to threaten not to defend them – you can agree or disagree with the rationale behind each of Trump’s decisions, but what can’t be argued is that they undermined our reputational capital.

As we lose soft power, our influence will diminish, and thus so will perceptions of our power. The world will start looking at us not from the perspective of the continuity of generations but of presidential cycles. The word of the American president will have an expiration date of the next presidential or mid-term election.

There are two negotiation styles – Warren Buffett’s and Donald Trump’s. Both have their advantages and disadvantages. Buffett will give you one offer and one offer only. Once the deal is agreed to, even just verbally, that is the deal. Critics would say that there is downside to that predictability, as foes know how you are going to respond. Donald Trump’s style is to be unpredictable, which has its own advantages when you deal with foes – it keeps opponents guessing. But it destroys trust with your allies.

In a world of fiat currencies, all currency is a financial and reputational promise. President Trump, with the help of DOGE (and maybe even tariffs) may increase our financial strength. I hope he does, but it will likely come at a very high cost to our reputational capital, and therefore US global influence and the US dollar will continue its decline.

How are we positioned for this?

About half of our portfolio is foreign companies whose sales are not in dollars. They will benefit from a weaker dollar. We also have exposure to oil, which is priced in the US dollar and usually appreciates when the dollar weakens.

A weaker dollar means our imports will become more expensive, which is inflationary. We own many companies with pricing power and also companies that have claims on someone else’s revenues. Take Uber for example: they get about 20% of each ride. If the cost of the ride goes up, so does their dollar take.

Why does President Trump keep pushing crypto?

In July 2019, Trump said the following: “I am not a fan of Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies, which are not money, and whose value is highly volatile and based on thin air.” Five years later he promised to establish the US Crypto Reserve, and in 2025 he did.

What changed? There is no logical reason for an American president to endorse crypto. None. Here is the honest answer: Crypto bros made mega-contributions to his campaign.

To top it off, three days before he took office he issued $TRUMP – a shitcoin. Believe it or not, “shitcoin” is a technical term in the crypto community (any coin other than Bitcoin is called a shitcoin by Bitcoin “maximalists”, folks who believe Bitcoin is the one and only digital currency). The future sitting president literally issued – I don’t want to call it a currency, so I guess shitcoin is the right name – that will at some point decline to zero in value. In other words, he’ll fleece his loyal followers who purchase $TRUMP of billions of dollars.

I previously referenced both reputational capital and soft power. These types of acts by a sitting president subtract from both.

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CRYPTOCURRENCY: Real Money-or Not?

Posted on March 27, 2025 by Dr. David Edward Marcinko MBA MEd CMP™

By Rick Kahler CFP®

http://www.KahlerFinancial.com

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Is cryptocurrency really money?

For years, I thought of cryptocurrency as a digital replacement for traditional money. After all, Bitcoin has “coin” right in the name. But let’s be honest: if Bitcoin is a currency, then my mother’s old Beanie Baby collection is a retirement fund.

A real currency needs to be stable. It should allow you to buy a coffee today without wondering whether, by tomorrow, that same amount could buy a car—or be worth nothing at all. Bitcoin and its kin like Ethereum and Dogecoin fail this test spectacularly.

Recently I have realized that cryptocurrency might be something even bigger and stranger than currency. It is not just digital money; it’s a bet on the huge global demand for financial autonomy.

In an age where every dollar is tracked, crypto offers an escape from traditional financial oversight. That makes it attractive not just to cybercriminals and tax evaders, but also to privacy advocates, speculators, and people living under restrictive financial policies. It doesn’t replace traditional money, it sidesteps it. It allows people to move, store, create, and destroy wealth outside of conventional banking systems. Some use it for transactions. Others see it as a hedge against inflation or a bet on the future of decentralized finance. Governments and banks don’t quite know what to do with it.

Crypto exists in a financial gray zone. It’s not widely accepted for everyday purchases, yet it can hold immense value. Unlike cash, which is limited by geography, or gold, which requires secure storage, crypto can be transferred globally in seconds. That’s part of its appeal, especially in countries with strict capital controls or volatile economies.

At the heart of cryptocurrency’s identity is the way it is produced. Crypto isn’t just a speculative asset—it’s an industrialized wealth-creation system. Imagine a massive warehouse filled with powerful computers “manufacturing” cryptocurrency. These mining operations exist solely to create new “coins” and process transactions, consuming enormous amounts of electricity in the process. The larger the operation, the more crypto it produces.

This is not how traditional currencies work. Fiat currencies are managed by central banks aiming for economic stability. Crypto, by contrast, is controlled by a decentralized network of miners and participants [block-chain]. Its supply is fixed, immune to government intervention. Some see this as a weakness. Others argue it is crypto’s greatest strength.

As Bitcoin and other major cryptocurrencies become more integrated into mainstream finance, the risks evolve. Even as regulators warn about crypto’s role in illicit activity, major corporations and investment firms are offering crypto-backed products. Some politicians, including President Trump, are discussing national Bitcoin reserves. This growing legitimacy makes crypto harder to ignore. But if crypto-backed funds become widespread, a crash could ripple far beyond crypto traders. That said, crypto remains a small fraction of global finance. Unless institutional adoption grows significantly, even a major downturn likely wouldn’t trigger systemic collapse.

Crypto’s increasing presence in finance does not make it a sound retirement investment. It is still a speculation. And speculations—whether in Bitcoin, meme stocks, or dot-com startups—are high-risk and not suitable for long-term financial security. Retirement portfolios should be built on diversification, stability, and predictable returns. Crypto offers none of these.

For years, I saw crypto as a failed currency. What I now think it to be is a decentralized speculative asset, driven by a growing demand to bypass traditional financial systems. Its future remains uncertain. As regulation increases and mainstream adoption expands, its role will continue to shift. But crypto is no longer just a niche experiment. It has become a financial force that governments, institutions, and individuals must reckon with—whether they embrace it or try to control it.

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DAILY UPDATE: Pfizer’s Conflict as NASDAQ and Bitcoin Sink along with Consumer Confidence

Posted on February 27, 2025 by Dr. David Edward Marcinko MBA MEd CMP™

MEDICAL EXECUTIVE-POST – TODAY’S NEWSLETTER BRIEFING

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Health experts have expressed conflict of interest concerns after the FDA‘s drug chief quit for a top job in Big Pharma. Pfizer announced this week that Dr. Patrizia Cavazzoni, former director of the FDA’s Center for Drug Evaluation and Research (CDER), will join the company as its chief medical officer.

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The tech-heavy NASDAQ Composite (^IXIC) finished the volatile trading day down around 1.3%, dragged down by shares of Magnificent Seven players like Nvidia (NVDA) and Tesla (TSLA). The benchmark S&P 500 (^GSPC) dropped roughly 0.4%, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average (^DJI) reversed earlier session declines to end the day in the green, up about 0.4%.

Some of the biggest market moves also came from the cryptocurrency space, where the price of bitcoin (BTC-USD) tumbled below $90,000 for the first time since November. Bitcoin touched a low closer to $86,000 in the early morning hours, its lowest level since early November. Prices stabilized to just around $88,000 at the market close.

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DAILY UPDATE: Bill Gates on Crypto as Stock Markets Rise

Posted on February 5, 2025 by Dr. David Edward Marcinko MBA MEd CMP™

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‘There are people with high I.Q.s who have fooled themselves on that one,’ Bill Gates the billionaire Microsoft co-founder told The New York Times. Gates’ comments come as Bitcoin has hit record highs in recent weeks, and the cryptocurrency industry as a whole has hailed the arrival of Donald Trump in the White House as a positive moment. 

The President has said he will introduce policies supportive of digital currencies, and both him and his wife Melania launched their own meme coins last month. Cryptocurrency prices took a hit on Monday from the prospect of a trade war between the US and its trading partners, with some well-known digital assets seeing values fall more than 10 percent, AP News reported. However the notoriously volatile investment recovered later on Monday, with Bitcoin rebounding back above $100,000. Gates, who has a net worth of around $165 billion, has previously shared his skepticism around Bitcoin, and its volatility in particular. 

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US stocks closed higher on Tuesday, led by Big Tech, as investors assessed China’s instant retaliation to US President Donald Trump’s additional tariffs and the potential risks of a trade war.

Traders also took in fresh jobs data, with job openings declining more than expected in December. Investors are continuing to watch any signs of cooling in the labor market as the Federal Reserve debates future interest rate cuts in the face of sticky inflation.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average (^DJI) gained around 0.3%, while the benchmark S&P 500 (^GSPC) rose roughly 0.7%. The tech-heavy NASDAQ Composite (^IXIC) jumped nearly 1.4% to recoup some of Monday’s losses.

Beijing reacted swiftly on Tuesday to Trump’s additional 10% levies on Chinese imports going into effect at midnight. China slapped tariffs of 15% on US coal and liquified natural gas, starting Feb. 10, alongside 10% duties on imports of crude oil, farm equipment, and some autos.

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DAILY UPDATE: Bitcoin and Big Technology Stocks Soar as DJIA Slips

Posted on December 12, 2024 by Dr. David Edward Marcinko MBA MEd CMP™

MEDICAL EXECUTIVE-POST – TODAY’S NEWSLETTER BRIEFING

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In crypto, bitcoin (BTC-USD) prices soared to trade above $101,300 a token in afternoon trade.

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Big Tech stocks led the market higher on Wednesday, as investors digested another month of sticky inflation data that met economists’ expectations and likely pointed to a Federal Reserve interest rate cut next week. The tech-heavy NASDAQ Composite (^IXIC) jumped about 1.7% amid a feverish rally in the “Magnificent Seven” tech stocks. Google parent Alphabet’s (GOOG, GOOGL) shares extended gains to hit a record high, rising more than 5%.

Meanwhile Tesla (TSLA), Meta (META) and Amazon (AMZN) all also surged to record highs, with Tesla notching its first record close in more than three years. The S&P 500 (^GSPC) rose around 0.8%, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average (^DJI) slipped about 0.2%.

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DAILY UPDATE: S&P 500, Gold, Treasury Yields and Bitcoin

Posted on December 2, 2024 by Dr. David Edward Marcinko MBA MEd CMP™

By Staff Reporters

BREAKING NEWS: President Joe Biden just pardoned his son,Hunter Biden, sparing the younger Biden a possible prison sentence for federal felony gun and tax convictions and reversing his past promises not to use the extraordinary powers of the presidency for the benefit of his family members.

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  • The short trading session didn’t stop the S&P 500 from hitting another new record today, and the S&P 500 and the Dow each wrapped up their best month of 2024 on a high note.
  • Meanwhile, November was the worst month for gold in over a year. Safe-haven investors sold the commodity while the US dollar soared following the election.
  • 10-year Treasury yields dropped to their lowest level in a month today as bond buyers bought in bulk.
  • Finally, bitcoin had one heck of a month. The crypto rose yet again today, and has climbed nearly 40% in November—though it has yet to break above $100,000.

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The NASDAQ, S&P 500, Dow and Treasury Yields Rise as Oil & Bitcoin Fall

Posted on November 27, 2024 by Dr. David Edward Marcinko MBA MEd CMP™

By Staff Reporters

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  • The S&P 500 and NASDAQ stayed in the green all day, with the S&P 500 hitting yet another new all-time high, while the Dow clawed its way out of negative territory to reach a new high as well.
  • The minutes from the last Federal Reserve meeting revealed that central bankers feel rate cuts are still warranted, though they’ll need to be gradual. Treasury yields rose on the news.
  • Oil fell after Israel and Lebanon agreed on a ceasefire deal.
  • Bitcoin continues to fall further away from the promised land of $100,000 as traders begin logging off ahead of the holiday—though bulls believe this is just a pullback to gather momentum ahead of the final push.

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Stocks, Treasuries, Gold and Bitcoin

Posted on November 20, 2024 by Dr. David Edward Marcinko MBA MEd CMP™
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  • Stocks sank yesterday on news that Russian President Vladimir Putin lowered the threshold for using nuclear weapons, retaliation against the US for allowing Ukraine to use American-made long-range missiles. The NASDAQ and S&P 500 managed to recover, but the DJIA stayed all day in the red.
  • Treasury yields dropped as bonds rose.
  • Gold popped as traders sought safety, as the commodity benefited from the US dollar pulling back from a recent one-year high.
  • Bitcoin continued to climb slowly but surely, reaching another new all-time high.

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DAILY UPDATE: All About the Stock Markets

Posted on November 19, 2024 by Dr. David Edward Marcinko MBA MEd CMP™

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  • Stocks ended the day mixed, with the Dow sinking into the red while the S&P 500 and NASDAQ kicked off the week on a positive note thanks to gains from tech stocks.
  • Oil popped on a double-whammy of news: Long-range, US-made ballistic missiles launched from Ukraine into Russia might disrupt oil supply, while the shutdown of Norway’s Johan Sverdrup oil field due to a power outage will definitely disrupt oil supply.
  • Crypto continued its hot streak today: Bitcoin popped back above $90,000, giving other cryptocurrencies a boost.
  • Bitcoin’s boom has certainly helped MicroStrategy, which announced today that it purchased 51,780 bitcoins for approximately $4.6 billion in cash, or roughly $88,627 per bitcoin, in the last week alone.

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STOCKS UP

The new Trump Trade continues: The president-elect’s selection of Liberty Energy CEO Chris Wright to lead the Department of Energy gave Liberty a 4.85% boost today. Wright is also on the board of nuclear company Oklo, which popped 14.83%.

  • Speaking of Trump, Trump Media & Technology Group soared 16.65% on the news that it may purchase crypto trading firm Bakkt.
  • Netflix disappointed viewers with its glitchy showing of Jake Paul vs. Mike Tyson, but shareholders forgave the company after it announced record viewership of the fight. Shares climbed 2.80%.
  • CVS Health gained 5.41% on news that it struck a deal with activist investor Glenview Capital Management to add four new seats to its board.
  • Robinhood jumped 8.29% to a new all-time high thanks to an upgrade from Needham analysts giving the investing app a “buy” rating due to its crypto offerings under a pro-crypto Trump presidency.
  • Warner Bros. Discovery rose 2.71% on a Wall Street Journal report that it has settled its legal dispute with the NBA, guaranteeing broadcast rights for the next decade.

STOCKS DOWN

  • Nvidia isn’t often in this section of the newsletter, but the semiconductor leader sank 1.29% today on a report from The Information that its new Blackwell chips are prone to overheating.
  • Palantir popped after moving over to the Nasdaq last week, but the red-hot software stock dropped 6.86% as investors collected profits.
  • Redfin may help you buy a house, but the online real estate brokerage is a “sell,” according to Goldman Sachs. The Wall Street firm cited low home sales, low affordability, and low chances of success in a competitive market. Shares fell 4.42%.
  • Uber dropped 5.35% to a new 52-week low on the threat of Tesla’s robotaxis ruling the road thanks to a Trump administration that seems keen on cutting self-driving regulations.

CITE: https://tinyurl.com/2h47urt5

Here’s where the major benchmarks ended:

  •  The SPX was up 23.00 points (0.4%) to 5893.62; the Dow Jones Industrial Average® ($DJI) fell 55.39 points (0.1%) to 43,389.6; and the NASDAQ Composite® ($COMP) was up 111.69 points (0.6%) to 18,791.81.
  • The 10-year Treasury note yield fell one basis point to 4.41%.
  • The CBOE Volatility Index® (VIX) eased to 15.57.

CITE: https://tinyurl.com/tj8smmes

Visualize: How private equity tangled banks in a web of debt, from the Financial Times.

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INVESTING NEWS: Stocks, Bonds, Oil, Gold, Bitcoin and Sectors Review Post Election

Posted on November 7, 2024 by Dr. David Edward Marcinko MBA MEd CMP™

By Staff Reporters

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BREAKING NEWS!

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  • Stocks surged and stayed higher all yesterday day on news of Donald Trump’s presidential victory. The Dow rocketed over 1,350 points as soon as markets opened, and all three indexes ended the day at record highs.
  • Treasury yields have paralleled Trump’s chances of taking the White House for the last few weeks, and his election sent them soaring to over 4.46% at one point today.
  • Oil and gold both fell as the dollar rose after Trump’s win. The greenback popped on the promise of Trump’s protectionist tariff policies and the lower likelihood of the Fed cutting interest rates as fast as previously expected.
  • Bitcoin surged as traders celebrated the beginning of the new, friendlier regulatory environment that Trump promised during his campaign.

CITE: https://www.r2library.com/Resource/Title/0826102549

Sector check-up

  • Financials were the biggest sector mover Wednesday, up 6.16%, hitting a new high.
  • Industrials were up 3.93% Wednesday, hitting a new high.
  • Energy was up 3.54% in the session. It’s now 4.28% from the April high.
  • Real Estate fell 2.64% during trading. It’s now 5.6% from the high. 
  • Consumer Staples fell 1.5%. The sector is 5.76% from the September high.
  • Utilities fell 1%. It’s now 5.72% from the mid-October high.
  • Duke Energy was flat over the past three months, and it is 6.3% from the October high.

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DAILY UPDATE: Nvidia, Intel, Oil, Bitcoin, Treasury Yields, CMS and Physician Pay

Posted on November 4, 2024 by Dr. David Edward Marcinko MBA MEd CMP™

MEDICAL EXECUTIVE-POST – TODAY’S NEWSLETTER BRIEFING

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Nvidia is replacing Intel on the Dow Jones Industrial Average, a shakeup to the blue-chip index that replaces a flagging semiconductor company with the primary vendor of GPUs for AI.

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  • Despite selling off last week, stocks spent Friday comfortably in the green thanks to strong earnings from big tech.
  • Treasury yields rose back above 4.3% as bonds sold off and investors poured money into risk assets.
  • Oil rose a bit on reports that Iran may retaliate against Israel sometime soon.
  • Bitcoin was unable to hold the line and continued to fall today as crypto volatility continues to escalate ahead of the election.

CITE: https://tinyurl.com/tj8smmes

Bipartisan Legislation Aims to Stop Medicare Cuts & Boost Physician Pay in 2025

Physicians and other healthcare practitioners may get a pay boost in 2025 through a bipartisan bill recently introduced in Congress. The proposed bill seeks to block planned Medicare pay cuts next year and would provide the first inflationary update to physician pay in years. The Medicare Patient Access and Practice Stabilization Act would counteract the 2.8% cut to the conversion factor proposed by the Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services (CMS) in the draft CY-2025 Physician Fee Schedule. A stop-gap pay fix is usually enacted by Congress at the end of the year. 

Source: Emma Beavins, Fierce Healthcare [10/30/24].

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DAILY UPDATE: Life Span, Earnings Reports, Oil, Gold and Bitcoin with Closing Stock Highs

Posted on October 15, 2024 by Dr. David Edward Marcinko MBA MEd CMP™

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Maximum lifespans. The upper limit of human life expectancy is leveling out, according to a new study published in the journal Nature Aging. Back in 1990, life-extending tech and health measures were increasing the average global lifespan by about 2.5 years per decade, but that dropped to 1.5 years per decade in the 2010s and closer to zero in the US, where there are more drug overdoses, shootings, and medical care inequities.

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  • Stocks kicked off the first full week of earnings season at full throttle. The S&P 500 rose to a new intraday record, the Dow closed above 43,000 for the first time ever, and the NASDAQ climbed steadily throughout the trading session.
  • Bitcoin soared on the news of China’s additional stimulus spending that broke this weekend. Although the Chinese government’s plans are light on details at the moment, the promise of more support for the world’s second largest economy was enough to get crypto traders hyped.

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  • Interestingly enough, those same promises of Chinese stimulus sent oil tumbling to start the day. The selling was exacerbated by OPEC’s announcement that crude demand will fall lower than expected in 2024 and 2025.
  • Gold sank a hair today as traders weighed Chinese stimulus against a stronger dollar.

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Here’s where the major benchmarks ended:

  • The S&P 500® index (SPX) rose44.82points (0.77%) to 5,859.85, a new closing high; the Dow Jones Industrial Average® ($DJI) increased 201.36 points (0.47%) to 43,065.22, also a new closing high; and the NASDAQ Composite® ($COMP) added 159.74 points (0.87%) to 18,502.69.
  • The 10-year Treasury note yield (TNX) did not trade today due to the holiday. 
  • The CBOE Volatility Index® (VIX) slipped to 19.9, its first drop below 20 since October 4.

A slate of corporate earnings reports coming from Goldman Sachs, Bank of America, and Citigroup in the financial sector, along with healthcare giants Johnson & Johnson, Walgreens, and UnitedHealth. And throughout the week: Morgan Stanley will report on Wednesday, Netflix reports on Thursday, and Procter & Gamble and American Express drop their financials on Friday. It’ll pose a big test for the stock market’s $8 trillion rally this year.

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Stocks, Oil, Gold and Bitcoin

Posted on October 8, 2024 by Dr. David Edward Marcinko MBA MEd CMP™

By Staff Reporters

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  • October continues to be a tough month for stocks, with all three major indexes spending yesterday afternoon in the red. The Dow in particular had a horrible day and dropped over 500 points, while major tech stocks were pushed lower by a series of analyst downgrades.
  • Oil continued its hot streak yesterday, rising above $77 on the back of geopolitical conflict in the Middle East. That helped ensure that, while everything else fell, energy was the only positive sector in the S&P 500.
  • Gold has often found itself rising in tandem with crude, though it broke that habit, with the shiny safe haven dropping a hair as investors digest the idea that the Fed’s next interest rate cut may be smaller than they thought.
  • Bitcoin broke above $64,000 for a moment yesterday only to be yanked back down, as crypto traders ride out the recent volatility.

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BITCOIN: “Halving”

Posted on September 24, 2024 by Dr. David Edward Marcinko MBA MEd CMP™

BITCOIN MINER HALVING

By Staff Reporters

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DEFINITION: After the network mines 210,000 blocks—roughly every four years—the block chain reward given to Bitcoin miners for processing transactions is cut in half. This event is called halving because it cuts the rate at which new bitcoins are released into circulation in half. This rewards system will continue until about 2140, when the proposed limit of 21 million coins is reached. At that point, miners will be rewarded with fees for processing transactions, which network users will pay. These fees ensure miners are still incentivized to participate and keep the network going.

CITE: https://www.r2library.com/Resource

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And, so, the total value of the world’s most popular cryptocurrency surpassed $1 trillion yesterday for the first time since 2021. The overall crypto market, meanwhile, broke $2 trillion in market cap, fueled by investor confidence. If crypto were a publicly traded company, it would be the fourth-largest in the world behind Microsoft, Apple, and Saudi Aramco.

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HALVING – The quadrennial event, expected to take place today or tomorrow, was built into bitcoin’s original code to cut the amount of new coins going into circulation in half every four years. The purpose is to thwart inflation and increase the currency’s value. Bitcoin’s mysterious creator, Satoshi Nakamoto, designed the crypto so that only 21 million bitcoins would ever exist. It will take about a century to hit that number, but as it approaches the cutoff, the crypto hose slowly constricts. No one’s sure what happens next

Historically, halvings have coincided with big jumps in price—the coin’s first halving in 2012 saw the price jump from $12.35 to $127 within five months, according to Time. But critics argue that the narrative around halving is much stronger than the actual event. Even bitcoin experts aren’t sure what will happen with the volatile asset. It already hit a record high of over $73,750 in March, thanks to the spot bitcoin ETF approval. And, lest we forget, the whole FTX thing happened since the last halving.

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WHAT IS “GRESHAM’S LAW” OF MONEY ECONOMICS?

Posted on September 20, 2024 by Dr. David Edward Marcinko MBA MEd CMP™

Is it still relevant today?

Courtesy: www.CertifiedMedicalPlanner.org

The law was named in 1860 by Henry Dunning Macleod, after Sir Thomas Gresham (1519–1579), who was an English financier during the Tudor dynasty. However, there are predecessors.

The law had been stated earlier by Nicolaus Copernicus. It was also stated in the 14th century, by Nicole Oresme in his treatise On the Origin, Nature, Law, and Alterations of Money, and by jurist and historian Al-Maqrizi (1364–1442) in the Mamluk Empire; and noted by Aristophanes in his play The Frogs, which dates from around the end of the 5th century BC.

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IOW: It is the tendency for money of lower intrinsic value to circulate more freely than money of higher intrinsic and equal nominal value (often expressed as “Bad money drives out good”).

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Gresham’s Law applies to new coins and worn coins. Worn coins are likely to have lost some of their metallic weight through wear and tear, so they should have less value than new coins. But government sets them to have the same value. Thus worn coins are artificially overvalued and new coins are artificially undervalued.

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So, is Gresham’s Law still relevant today?

THINK: The modern Bitcoin, and related crypto-currency, controversy? We asked colleague Timothy J. McIntosh CFP® MPH CFA for some insights.

ESSAY: https://medicalexecutivepost.com/2014/01/23/understanding-currencies-bitcoins/

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DAILY UPDATE: Rite Aid, Stock Markets, Gold, Oil Bitcoin, Uber & Waymo

Posted on September 16, 2024 by Dr. David Edward Marcinko MBA MEd CMP™

MEDICAL EXECUTIVE-POST – TODAY’S NEWSLETTER BRIEFING

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Nearly a year after filing for Chapter 11, Rite Aid announced on September 3 that the company has exited the bankruptcy process and will move forward as a private company. The retail pharmacy chain filed for bankruptcy in October 2023 as it struggled to keep up with competitors CVS and Walgreens, in addition to mounting debt, falling revenue, and multimillion-dollar opioid settlements.

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Stocks wrapped up a comeback last week, with all three major indexes ending the trading session on a high note. Both the S&P 500 and the NASDAQ enjoyed five straight winning days, and both indexes had their best week of the year. Gold continued to break records today, as the double whammy of forthcoming rate cuts and a declining dollar sent the precious metal soaring. Oil rose a bit today after Hurricane Francine passed over the Gulf of Mexico and output began to normalize. Bitcoin staged a late afternoon rally to end the week over 9% higher than where it started, as investors embraced risk and optimism swept through markets.

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Uber riders will be able to flag Waymo robotaxis in Austin and Atlanta in 2025 as the companies expand their partnership.

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DAILY UPDATE: Physician Burnout

Posted on September 15, 2024 by Dr. David Edward Marcinko MBA MEd CMP™

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Healthcare comes with its share of mental challenges, especially considering that clinicians often care for patients when they’re in difficult and sometimes tragic situations. New research shows that even the path to getting into the workforce can be a challenge, with some physicians burning out before they make it to graduation.

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  • The national debt is growing to an unwieldy size ($35.5 trillion) and now we’re beginning to feel its effects: The interest payment on the US debt topped $1 trillion for the first time ever.
  • Consumer sentiment hit a five-month high as Americans look ahead to lower inflation and interest rates, but sentiment remains well below its 2021 peak.
  • The yield curve un-inverted, but there’s always another recession indicator out there warning of a downturn ahead.
  • The cryptocurrency Wild West is still alive and well: Americans lost $5.6 billion in crypto scams last year, according to the FBI.
  • Credit card debt hit 10.9%, its highest level in 12 years, according to Deloitte.

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Most doctors report feeling overworked and are considering a change in career, according to a new poll.

Doximity, a virtual network for physicians, found that 81% doctors surveyed last fall said they felt overworked—a slight decline from 86% who reported burnout in 2022 but still up from 73% in 2021. Meanwhile, about three in five doctors said they were considering early retirement (30%), looking for another employer (15%), or leaving the profession altogether (14%), the poll found.

The findings, released last year, come amid reports of rising rates of physician burnout and dissatisfaction since after the Covid-19 pandemic.

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DAILY UPDATE: Technology Stocks

Posted on July 29, 2024 by Dr. David Edward Marcinko MBA MEd CMP™

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A magnificent earnings week is on tap: Four of the Magnificent Seven—Microsoft, Meta, Amazon, and Apple—will drop their reports throughout this week.

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Technology stocks were down last week but investors are encouraged by signs that 2024’s rally—which had been underpinned by a handful of Big Tech companies—is spreading to a broader swath of the market. For instance, the industrial focused Dow Jones Industrial Average has gained for four straight weeks, and the small-cap Russell 3000 is now up 14% this year. All eyes will be on the upcoming Federal Reserve meeting and the busiest earnings week of the season.

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Donald Trump pledges to make the US “the crypto capital of the planet.” The former president pitched himself as the pro-crypto candidate in a keynote speech at the Bitcoin 2024 conference in Nashville. He told the audience that, if elected, he’d fire SEC Chair Gary Gensler (whom the crypto community accuses of waging a war on crypto) and install regulators friendly to digital tokens. He also said he’d create a strategic national crypto stockpile as part of a plan to make the US the “bitcoin superpower of the world.”

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Consider two numbers: $568.34 and $60.09. The first is Zoom’s highest closing stock price, from October 2020; the second is its stock price today. That’s an 89% decline, caused by more workers heading back into the office (even Zoom employees) and competition from rival products by Microsoft and Google.

Visualize: How private equity tangled banks in a web of debt, from the Financial Times.

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DOW JONES INDUSTRIAL AVERAGE: 30 “Blue Chip” Stock Index Update

Posted on July 26, 2024 by Dr. David Edward Marcinko MBA MEd CMP™

By Staff Reporters

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The Dow Jones Industrial Average is a collection of 30 “blue-chip” U.S. stocks. Blue chip = big, established, and influential companies like Microsoft, JPMorgan, Disney, and McDonald’s. The Dow recently updated its roster, swapping ExxonMobil, Pfizer, and Raytheon for Salesforce, biotech Amgen, and manufacturing heavyweight Honeywell.

The Dow is weighted by share price, so higher-priced stocks have more influence on the index’s total value. Price-weighting also means that if the price of any stock in the Dow changes by $1, it has the same impact on the index, even though a $1 increase to a stock worth $20 is more significant (relatively) than a $1 change to a stock worth, say, $40.

  • During stock splits—when a company increases its number of outstanding shares and chops prices by the same factor—a company’s influence in the Dow can fall even if their market value doesn’t change. The Dow has some mechanisms to account for stock splits, but they can still lead to a shakeup in the index (like what happened last summer).

At 124 years old, the Dow has had plenty of time to cement its reputation as a leading indicator of the stock market. But with only 30 stocks representing a smattering of U.S. corporate titans, it’s not exactly representative.

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At one point the Dow Jones Industrial Average was up 585 points before it sold off later yesterday afternoon, though it wrapped the trading session with a small win. The S&P 500 fought its way into positive territory but struggled to stay there, eventually sinking into negative territory at the end of the day.

As for the NASDAQ, the tech selloff continued to punish the index for most of yesterday afternoon. Treasury yields fell a bit on positive GDP news, though the big PCE [personal consumption expenditures] announcement is the one investors have been waiting for.

Oil popped on a stronger than expected GDP reading, with traders banking on future economic growth and stronger oil demand.

Bitcoin sank a bit yesterday ahead of a major conference that could set the tone for the entire digital asset industry for years to come.

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DAILY UPDATE: Apple, Macy’s, Goldman, Banks, Companies and the Roaring DJIA

Posted on July 17, 2024 by Dr. David Edward Marcinko MBA MEd CMP™

MEDICAL EXECUTIVE-POST – TODAY’S NEWSLETTER BRIEFING

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  • The Dow jumped 700 points at one point today, its biggest single-day surge this year. The S&P 500 spent the entire trading session in positive territory, ending the afternoon at another record close, while the NASDAQ was flat most of the day as tech stocks sat out the rally.
  • Bitcoin continued to surge, rising as high as $65,191 as predictions of a second Trump presidency helped erase the cryptocurrency’s recent losses.
  • Gold hit a new record as hopes of a rate hike continue to rise, while oil sank on the news of slower economic growth in China translating to lower demand for crude.
  • The Russell 2000 enjoyed its 5th straight gain of 1% or more for the first time since 1979 as small caps make their comeback (more on that below).

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Apple released public beta versions of the newest software for iPhone, Mac, iPad, and Apple Watch. Macy’s ended talks of a buyout with investment firms Arkhouse Management and Brigade Capital Management after months of wrangling. Goldman Sachs was the latest big bank to benefit from rebounding investment banking fees as deals start making a comeback.

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Despite such challenges as high interest rates, a sluggish M&A market, and increased regulatory scrutiny, bank executives are feeling optimistic about the road ahead. That’s according to KPMG’s 2024 US Banking Industry Outlook Survey, published last month, which polled 200 senior executives at US banks of varying sizes in March 2024.

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Here’s where the major benchmarks ended:

  • The S&P 500® index (SPX) rose 35.98 points (0.64%) to 5,667.20; the Dow Jones Industrial Average® ($DJI) climbed 742.76 points (1.85%) to 40,954.48; the NASDAQ Composite® ($COMP) added 36.77 points (0.2%) to 18,509.34.
  • The 10-year Treasury note yield (TNX) fell slightly to just under 4.17%.
  • The CBOE Volatility Index® (VIX) ticked up to 13.19, still near three-week highs.

What’s up

  • Match Group climbed 7.46% after activist investor Starboard Value revealed it has taken a 6.6% stake in the matchmaking company.
  • Bank of America rose 5.35% on strong earnings, and management’s expectation that the bank’s net interest income will rise this year.
  • UnitedHealth Group popped 6.49% after beating analyst earnings estimates, missing revenue expectations, and most importantly, avoided higher costs after a recent cyberattack.
  • Shopify surged 8.57% thanks to an analyst upgrade from “neutral” to “buy” on the company’s turnaround efforts. Shares of Etsy rose 6.33% in sympathy.
  • GRAIL boomed 24.76% on the news that it is kicking off the clinical trials of its new cancer detection test.
  • Home builders’ hot streak continues: Hopes of a rate cut are fueling a rally for home builder stocks, with D.R. Horton up 6.64%, Lennar rising 6.55%, KB Home gaining 7.17%, and Builders FirstSource popping 8.11%.

What’s down

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DAILY UPDATE: Wall Street Stocks, Dow Dogs, Commodities, Gold, the Fed, Yen and Bitcoin

Posted on July 1, 2024 by Dr. David Edward Marcinko MBA MEd CMP™

MEDICAL EXECUTIVE-POST – TODAY’S NEWSLETTER BRIEFING

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Essays, Opinions and Curated News in Health Economics, Investing, Business, Management and Financial Planning for Physician Entrepreneurs and their Savvy Advisors and Consultants

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If you can believe it, Friday was the final trading day of the first half of 2024. It might be a good time to reflect on your New Year’s resolutions to see how you’re measuring up halfway through the year.

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Dogs of the Dow: The 139-year-old index has never looked more its age, with components Nike, Intel, and Boeing all down more than 30% in 2024. The Dow has gained less than 4% this year.

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But, the S&P 500 gained a sublime 15% in H1, and Nvidia alone was responsible for more than a third of that gain. The maker of AI chips surged ~150% since Jan. 1st to become the most valuable company in the USA at one point.

Going into 2024, investors were expecting the Fed to cut interest rates six times. There hasn’t been a single rate cut yet, but that hasn’t stopped the S&P from notching 31 all-time closing highs, good for the second-best tally of records this century. Stocks have overcome the Fed’s delay thanks to strong earnings, a sturdy economy, and AI fever.

Commodities soar and a currency plummets. Cocoa boomed nearly 85% over shortage concerns. Gold hit a record high last month. The Japanese yen has slumped to a 38-year low against the US dollar.

Bitcoin got a boost from new ETFs, but it’s getting boring.

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DAILY UPDATE: Stock Market Review

Posted on June 30, 2024 by Dr. David Edward Marcinko MBA MEd CMP™

MEDICAL EXECUTIVE-POST – TODAY’S NEWSLETTER BRIEFING

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The S&P 500 and NASDAQ shot to record highs last week on a solid PCE reading. But all three indexes spent Friday hovering around flat levels before they all fell into the red by the end of the trading session.

Treasury yields and gold prices alike popped higher on PCE news, with traders hoping that the Fed now has good reason to cut interest rates sooner rather than later. Despite this decline, oil wrapped up a fantastic month, with prices rising for a third straight week on higher demand this summer in the US and higher risks to supply given geopolitical turmoil between Israel and Lebanon.

But, Bitcoin continued to fall, with the crypto inching closer to the all-important $60,000 price point—a line in the sand that traders are desperate not to cross for fear of further declines.

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DAILY UPDATE: Physician Salary, Consumer Confidence, Company Stocks and Slumping Markets

Posted on May 30, 2024 by Dr. David Edward Marcinko MBA MEd CMP™

MEDICAL EXECUTIVE-POST – TODAY’S NEWSLETTER BRIEFING

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Essays, Opinions and Curated News in Health Economics, Investing, Business, Management and Financial Planning for Physician Entrepreneurs and their Savvy Advisors and Consultants

“Serving Almost One Million Doctors, Financial Advisors and Medical Management Consultants Daily“

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SPONSORED BY: Marcinko & Associates, Inc.

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Doctors Saw a 6% Boost in Pay in 2023

After several years of modest or declining growth, the average pay for doctors jumped 5.9% in 2023, rebounding from a decline of 2.4% in 2022. Most medical specialties experienced positive growth in 2023, with the top 10 seeing annual growth rates exceeding 7%, according to the 2024 Physician Compensation Report from professional medical network Doximity.

However, inflationary pressures continue to impact physicians’ real income. According to the American Medical Association, when adjusted for inflation, Medicare physician payment has dropped 26% since 2001. Doximity’s compensation data draw from nearly 150,000 survey responses over five years, including responses from more than 33,000 U.S. physicians in 2023 alone.

Source: Heather Landi, Fierce Healthcare [5/23/24]

Economic Summary

  • The S&P 500 has risen 23 of the last 30 weeks, according to Deutsche Bank, and rose slightly today as well. Meanwhile, the NASDAQ closed at a record high yesterday after tech companies across the board rose, while the Dow dropped over 200 points.
  • Treasury prices fell and yields rose after two weaker-than-expected auctions saw soft sales of 2-year and 5-year bonds.
  • Gold prices slipped 5% last week after falling four days in a row, but the key commodity kicked off this week with a win. With key PCE data coming out on Friday that could send the market soaring or tanking, investors are hedging their bets with the shiny yellow metal.
  • Bitcoin fell as Mt. Gox made good with its creditors a decade after being hacked, while ethereum sank as traders continued to lock in gains from the SEC’s dramatic ruling last week.
  • The S&P 500® index (SPX) fell 39.09 points (0.7%) to 5,266.95; the Dow Jones Industrial Average lost 411.32 points (1.1%) to 38,441.54; the NASDAQ Composite® ($COMP) shed 99.30 points (0.6%) to 16,920.58.
  • The 10-year Treasury note yield climbed more than 7 basis points to 4.614%.
  • The CBOE Volatility Index® (VIX) rose 1.38 to 14.30.

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Consumer confidence rose for the first time in four months

Americans are unexpectedly feeling better about the economy this month: Per the Conference Board’s monthly index, US consumer sentiment rose from 97.5 in April to 102 in May, smashing economists’ estimates. Meanwhile, the expectations index, which measures the short-term outlook for income and other labor market conditions, increased the most since July. However, the report showed that Americans remain worried about inflation and interest rates. Despite their mixed feelings about the economy, Americans continue to spend vigorously on travel. The TSA set a record for most travelers screened in a single day last Friday.

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STOCKS UP:

Dick’s Sporting Goods rose 15.86% to a new all-time high today after the company reported impressive earnings and a strong outlook.

STOCKS DOWN:

American Airlines shares fell 13.54% after the company cut its guidance for the second quarter. Southwest Airlines fell 3.83%, and Delta Air Lines fell 0.74%.

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