DAILY UPDATE: MDMA, Stellantis & Zelle While Correlation is not Causation

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The FDA declined to approve MDMA as a PTSD treatment, which would have been a big step forward for psychedelics use in mental health care, saying further study is needed. But the agency did approve a nasal spray to treat severe allergic reactions as an alternative to shots like EpiPen.

Stellantis will lay off 2,450 factory workers this year as it phases out an older version of its Ram pickup truck.

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Scams via Zelle, the payment service you turn to when you run out of wedding gift ideas, are the subject of an ongoing inquiry by the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau (CFPB), the Wall Street Journal reported this week. Zelle was founded in 2017 by seven of the biggest US banks to compete with peer-to-peer payment apps like Venmo and Cash App. It outgrew its rivals but became a magnet for scams, which customers typically don’t get reimbursed for.

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Correlate: A website that shows spurious correlations.

Visualize: How private equity tangled banks in a web of debt, from the Financial Times.

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Appreciating the Six Types of Investment Fees

dr-marcinkoDR. DAVID EDWARD MARCINKO MBA MEd CMP

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investing

Investment fees matter. They can make a big difference to your financial health in the long run. Before you put money into any investment, it’s vital to uncover the real costs.They typically include these six types of fees:

1. An up-front commission earned by the salesperson or their firm. Don’t rely on a vague assurance or a verbal answer: get a specific number in writing.If you have trouble getting a number, ask, “If I buy this investment today and want to get out tomorrow, how much do I get back?” If the answer is not “all your money,” the difference is probably the upfront fees and commissions.

I don’t recommend purchasing financial products with significant upfront commission or costs. I have seen investments where these fees run as high as 30% of the money invested. If you were to earn 5% a year on the investment, it would take 8 years just to break even.

2. Ongoing advisory fees. These are monthly, quarterly, or annual fees you pay advisors for their investment advice and oversight. This includes working with you to pick the asset classes, set the diversification, select the managers, tax optimization, rebalancing, and other periodic tasks.

This fee can have many names including wrap fee or investment advisory fee. The normal “rule of thumb” is 1% of the assets the advisor is managing, although fees can range from 0 to 7%. This fee can be charged to you even if the advisor receives an upfront commission. It can be easy to see or hidden away in the fine print of the investment.

3. Additional fees for services. Find out specifically what services are included in the advisor fee. Additional fees for financial planning or ancillary services are rarely disclosed or discussed.

Services can range from minimal hand-holding only focused on your investments to comprehensive, holistic financial planning. Amazingly, there is no correlation between price and the breadth of services. That’s illogical, but the financial services industry gets away with this, in part because consumers don’t do their homework.

4. Ongoing fees charged by the managers of the specific funds or investment products. These fees are referred to as the fund’s expense ratio. This comes out of the profits generated by the manager, and it is one of the hardest fees to find. Only the most transparent advisor or salesperson will disclose it. It is incredibly well hidden; you will never see it in your brokerage statements or your advisor’s invoices. The only way to know the amount of this fee is to read the prospectus or some other third party analysis of the investment, like Morningstar.

These fees can vary greatly for the same investment, depending on the class of share you buy. For example, American Fund’s New Perspective Fund’s expense ratio ranges from0.45% to 1.54%.  The average expense ratio of a mutual fund that invests in stocks is 1.35%. Conversely, the average expense ratio of a Vanguard S&P 500 fund is 0.10%. The difference of 1.25% is staggering over time.

5. Miscellaneous fees. These are also rarely talked about and hard to find. Many advisors charge $50 to $100 a year per account, hundreds of dollars to open or close an account, and even fees to dollar cost average your funds into the market.

6. Transaction fees. Every time you buy or sell a fund, a fee is typically paid to a custodian. These can range from $5 to hundreds of dollars per transaction.

Assessment

Remember, it’s your job to persist until you find out the total costs of an investment. Next week I’ll suggest ways to ask the tough questions about fees.

Conclusion

Your thoughts and comments on this ME-P are appreciated. Feel free to review our top-left column, and top-right sidebar materials, links, URLs and related websites, too. Then, subscribe to the ME-P. It is fast, free and secure. 

Speaker: If you need a moderator or speaker for an upcoming event, Dr. David E. Marcinko; MBA – Publisher-in-Chief of the Medical Executive-Post – is available for seminar or speaking engagements. https://medicalexecutivepost.com/dr-david-marcinkos-bookings/ 

Contact: MarcinkoAdvisors@msn.com

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Risk Management, Liability Insurance, and Asset Protection Strategies for Doctors and Advisors: Best Practices from Leading Consultants and Certified Medical Planners™8Comprehensive Financial Planning Strategies for Doctors and Advisors: Best Practices from Leading Consultants and Certified Medical Planners™

ETFs: Happy 31st. Birthday

EXCHANGE TRADED FUNDS

By Staff Reporters

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Thirty one years ago yesterday, the first exchange-traded fund (ETF) in the US launched. In the decades since, these once-niche investment products have become ubiquitous on Wall Street, disrupting the mutual fund industry and transforming people’s relationship with the stock market.

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Exchange Traded Funds

On January 29th, 1993, a spider decoration hanging in the American Stock Exchange heralded the arrival of the first US ETF—what’s now called the SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust. It had a measly $6.5 million in assets and no one really paid much attention to it. The first US ETF is now the world’s biggest, with $375 billion in assets, and the ETF sector in total had amassed $6.5 trillion in assets by the end of 2022. While mutual funds still have 3x the amount of assets that ETFs have, the tide is turning: Investors poured $600 billion into US ETFs on a net basis last year, but pulled out almost $1 trillion from mutual funds.

ETFs and Tax Efficiency

Definition: An ETF is simply a security that tracks the performance of a particular basket of investments, like stocks. The SPDR S&P 500 ETF, for example, tracks the performance of companies in the S&P 500. Many other ETFs also track indexes, allowing people to park their money in funds that follow the ebbs and flows of the broader market.

If that sounds like a mutual fund…it’s similar. But ETFs have a few advantages over its stuffy, older cousin.

  • ETFs generally have lower fees than mutual funds.
  • They have built-in tax benefits.
  • They’re accessible to anyone with a brokerage account—you can buy or sell them like you would a stock.

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Finally, all these advantages aside, the rise of ETFs has been also fueled by the growing recognition that trying to invest in individual stocks is foolish. Passive index funds, which aren’t designed for frequent trading, have surged to represent almost half of US fund assets, compared to less than 2% in the early ’90s.

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DAILY UPDATE: Medicare, Google & Meta, FTX and the Rising Markets

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FTX was ordered to pay $12.7 billion to customers. All customers will recoup their deposits that were locked when the crypto exchange went under in 2022, the Commodity Futures Trading Commission just said last Thursday.

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Read: How one-hour patient home visits allowed insurers to collect $15 billion from Medicare between 2019 and 2021. (the Wall Street Journal)

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What’s up

  • Sweetgreen popped 33.33% after a strong earnings report coupled with forecasts of higher-than-expected sales in 2024.
  • Doximity soared 38.70% thanks to a beat-and-raise quarter from the medical platform that has been investing in its own DoximityGPT AI model.
  • Nikola rose 8.21% after a surprisingly strong quarter in which sales soared 318%.
  • Unity Software jumped 8.22% despite revenue coming in lower year over year, but it was still higher than Wall Street expected.
  • Take-Two Interactive Software surged 4.35% after it beat earnings estimates last quarter, but no word yet on how its Gearbox acquisition is helping its bottom line, nor when GTA 6 is going to be released.
  • Expedia traveled 10.21% higher due to an earnings beat, with the company sidestepping a consumer spending slowdown quite nicely.

What’s down

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Here’s where the major benchmarks ended:

  • The S&P 500® index (SPX) rose 25 points (0.5%) to 5,344.16, ending the week little changed; the Dow Jones Industrial Average® ($DJI) rose 51 points (0.1%) to 39,497.54 to end the week down about 0.6%; the NASDAQ Composite® ($COMP) ended 85 points higher (0.5%) at 16,745.30, leaving it about 0.2% lower for the week.
  • The 10-year Treasury note yield (TNX) dropped five basis points to 3.944%.
  • The Cboe Volatility Index (VIX) declined three points (13%) to 20.7.

Google and Meta teamed up to target teens with ads for Instagram on YouTube, going against Google’s own rules, the Financial Times reported.

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What is Financial – Tech?

The Definition of Fin-Tech

cropped-dem

By Dr. David E. Marcinko MBA MEd CMP

Fintech is a portmanteau of financial technology that describes an emerging financial services sector in the 21st century.

Originally, the term applied to technology applied to the back-end of established consumer and trade financial institutions. Since the end of the first decade of the 21st century, the term has expanded to include any technological innovation in the financial sector, including innovations in financial literacy and education, retail banking, investment and even crypto-currencies like bitcoin.

BREAKING DOWN ‘Fintech’

The term financial technology can apply to any innovation in how people transact business, from the invention of money to double-entry bookkeeping. Since the internet revolution and the mobile internet revolution, however, financial technology has grown explosively, and fintech, which originally referred to computer technology applied to the back office of banks or trading firms, now describes a broad variety of technological interventions into personal and commercial finance.

Fintech’s Expanding Horizons

Already technological innovation has up-ended 20th century ways of trading and banking. The mobile-only stock trading app Robinhood charges no fees for trades, and peer-to-peer lending sites like Prosper and Lending Club promise to reduce rates by opening up competition for loans to broad market forces. Technologies being designed that should reach fruition by 2020 include mobile banking, mobile trading on commodities exchanges, digital wallets (like Apple (AAPL) and Google’s (GOOG) developing mobile wallet systems), financial advisory and robo-advisor sites like LearnVest and Betterment, and all-in-one money management tools like Mint and Level.

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New Tech in Fintech

In the olden days, individuals and institutions used the invisible hand of the market – represented by the signaling function of price – to make financial decisions. New technologies, like machine learning, predictive behavioral analytics and data-driven marketing, will take the guess work and hocus pocus out of financial decisions. “Learning” apps will not only learn the habits of users, often hidden to themselves, but will engage users in learning games to make their automatic, unconscious spending and saving decisions better. On the back end, improved data analytics will help institutional clients further refine their investment decisions and open new opportunities for financial innovation.

Fintech Users

Who uses fintech? There are four broad categories: 1) B2B for banks and 2) their business clients; and 3) B2C for small businesses and 4) consumers. Trends toward mobile banking, increased information, data and more accurate analytics and decentralization of access will create opportunities for all four groups to interact in heretofore unprecedented ways.

Conclusion

Your thoughts and comments on this ME-P are appreciated. Feel free to review our top-left column, and top-right sidebar materials, links, URLs and related websites, too. Then, subscribe to the ME-P. It is fast, free and secure.

Speaker: If you need a moderator or speaker for an upcoming event, Dr. David E. Marcinko; MBA – Publisher-in-Chief of the Medical Executive-Post – is available for seminar or speaking engagements. Contact: MarcinkoAdvisors@msn.com

OUR OTHER PRINT BOOKS AND RELATED INFORMATION SOURCES:

Risk Management, Liability Insurance, and Asset Protection Strategies for Doctors and Advisors: Best Practices from Leading Consultants and Certified Medical Planners™8Comprehensive Financial Planning Strategies for Doctors and Advisors: Best Practices from Leading Consultants and Certified Medical Planners™

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What is a CARRY TRADE?

By Staff Reporters

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A carry trade is a tactic in which an investor borrows a currency with lower interest rates and invests the proceeds in a higher-yielding asset, often in a different market with higher interest rates.

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Over the past few years, many funds were using this strategy by buying US equities or selling US bonds with money borrowed from the yen because of the huge disparity in interest rates between the US and Japan. Japan kept the yen cheap on purpose because its economy is primarily export-driven, and the low price of Japanese products kept exports thriving. And the dollar, as the dominant global currency, has remained impressively strong through thick and thin.

This was all fun and profits, until Japan raised interest rates for the first time in 17 years last week. Suddenly, the yen wasn’t as cheap as it once was. And at the exact same time, the US is expected to cut interest rates in September, which means the dollar would become less valuable, completely throwing this international carry trade out of balance

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DAILY UPDATE: Data Breach Up, Novo Nordisk Down as Stock Markets Stumble

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You might be affected by one of the biggest data breaches ever and not even know it. A recent class action lawsuit filed against Jerico Pictures Inc., a background check company that does business under the name National Public Data, claims that the company was breached by hackers earlier this year.

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Here’s where the major benchmarks ended:

  • The SPX dipped 40.5 points (0.8%) to 5,199.5; the Dow Jones Industrial Average® ($DJI) fell 234.2 points (0.6%) to 38,763.45 the NASDAQ Composite ($COMP) fell 171 points (1.1%) to 16,195.8. 
  • The 10-year Treasury note yield (TNX) rose to 3.96%.
  • The Cboe Volatility Index® (VIX) inched up to 27.8, still very elevated.

What’s Up

What’s down

  • Super Micro Computer dropped 20.14% thanks to an earnings miss, as well as the announcement of a 10-for-1 stock split.
  • AirBnB tumbled 13.38% after not only missing analyst estimates last quarter, but warning of slowing demand in the coming quarter.
  • Lyft drove 17.23% lower in spite of strong ridership in the second quarter. Shareholders, however, did not like management’s dour financial forecast for the third quarter.
  • CVS Health sank 3.19% after it slashed its profit guidance for the full year, though it also announced a new cost-cutting program.
  • TripAdvisor took a trip south today, falling 16.61% due to a mixed earnings report and dire warnings of lower revenue in the coming quarter.
  • Amgen stumbled 5% after the biotech company missed Wall Street forecasts in the second quarter.

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Novo Nordisk sales thinned on Ozempic earnings miss. Shares of Danish pharmaceutical giant Novo Nordisk sank 8.27% today after the company missed expectations on its sales of popular weight-loss drugs Ozempic and Wegovy. Novo reported $1.7 billion in Wegovy sales, below the $2 billion analysts expected, while Ozempic sales came in $0.2 billion lower than analyst estimates. Overall, the company reported a net profit of $1.86 billion in the second quarter.

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Stock Markets, Magnificent 7, Nikkei and DuckDuckGo

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Stock Markets seesawed up yesterday, making back some of the ground lost to Monday’s sell-off. Analysts say the market could remain volatile until September, when the Fed is widely expected to cut interest rates—barring an emergency cut before then. One of the day’s big winners was Uber, which revved up after smashing Q2 revenue expectations thanks to unexpectedly strong consumer demand.

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One day after the S&P 500’s worst session since 2022, stocks partially rebounded, putting fears of a recession on hold. Tuesday started well, with Japan’s Nikkei—which had cratered on Monday—logging its best day since 2008, giving US investors some positive energy From there, US stocks, including Magnificent Seven stalwarts like Microsoft and Nvidia, and both major cryptocurrencies, moved up. “Get used to the volatility,” one Bank of America analyst told Bloomberg. The S&P 500 is still up over 10% this year despite this week’s turbulence.

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Finally, DuckDuckGo might soon get its time to shine. A federal judge just ruled that Google has a monopoly over the search engine business, creating the potential for curbs to its power that could change how you look up people you just met online. Google said it will appeal the ruling, but that’s just on one front. It faces another lawsuit questioning whether it abused its monopoly on online advertising technology.

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About Securities Order and Position Types

A Primer for Physician Investors and Medical Professionals

By: DR. David Edward Marcinko; MBA, MEd, CMP™

[Editor-in-Chief] http://www.CertifiedMedicalPlanner.org

[PART 6 OF 8]

BC Dr. Marcinko

NOTE: This is an eight part ME-P series based on a weekend lecture I gave more than a decade ago to an interested group of graduate, business and medical school students. The material is a bit dated and some facts and specifics may have changed since then. But, the overall thought-leadership information of the essay remains interesting and informative. We trust you will enjoy it.

Introduction

At this point  in our long ME-P essay, it is important to understand the different types of orders and positions that can be used to buy and sell securities from the specialist.

Market Order:

A market order is an order to be executed at the best possible price at the time the order reaches the floor. Market orders are the most common of all orders. The greatest advantage of the market order is speed. The doctor specifies no price in this type of order, he merely orders his broker to sell or buy at the best possible price, regardless of what it may be. The best possible price on a buy is the lowest possible price. The best possible price on a sell is the highest possible price. In other words, if a medical professional customer is buying, he logically wants to pay as little as possible, but he is not going to quibble over price. He wants the stock now, whatever it takes to get it. If he’s a seller, the doctor client wants to receive as much as possible, but will not quibble, he wants out, and will take what he can get, right now. No other type of order can be executed so rapidly.

Some market orders are executed in less than one minute from the time the broker phones in the order. Because the investor has specified no price, a market order will always be executed. The doctor is literally saying, “I will pay whatever it takes, or accept whatever is offered”.

Limit Order:

The chief characteristic of a limit order is that the doctor decides in advance on a price at which he decides to trade. He believes that his price is one that will be reached in the market in reasonable time. He is willing to wait to do business until he has obtained his price even at the risk his order may not be executed either in the near future or at all. In the execution of a limit order, the broker is to execute it at the limit price or better. Better, means that a limit order to buy is executed at the customer’s price limit or lower, in a limit order to sell, at price limit or higher. If the broker can obtain a more favorable price for his doctor customer than the one specified, he is required to do so.

Order Length:

Now, even though the doctor has given his price limit, we need to know the length of effectiveness of the order. Is the order good for today only? If so, it is a day order, it automatically expires at the end of the day.  Alternatively, the doctor may enter an open or, “good until canceled” order. This type of order is used when the doctor believes that the fluctuations in the market price of the stock in which he’s interested will be large enough in the future that they will cause the market price to either fall to, or rise to, his desired price, i.e. his limit price. He is reasonably sure of his judgment and is in no hurry to have/his order executed. He knows what he wants to pay or receive and is willing to wait for an indefinite period.

Years ago, such orders were carried for long periods of time without being reconfirmed. This was very unsatisfactory for all parties concerned.  A doctor would frequently forget his order existed and, if the price ever reached his limit and the order was executed, the resulting trade might not be one he wished to make. To avoid the problem, open (GTC) orders must be reconfirmed by the doctor customer each six months. Does that mean six months after the order is entered? …No! The exchange has appointed the last business day of April and the last business day of October as the two dates per year when all open orders must be reconfirmed.

Example: Dr. Smith wants to buy 100 shares of XYZ. The price has been fluctuating between 50 and 55. He places a limit order to buy at 51, although the current market price is 54. Limit orders to buy (buy limit orders) are always placed below the current market. To do otherwise makes no sense. It is possible that, within a reasonable time, the price will drop to 51 and his broker can purchase the stock for him at that price. If the broker can purchase the stock at less that 51, that would certainly be fine with the doctor customer since he wants to pay no more than 51. A sell limit order works in reverse and is always placed above the current market price.

Example: Dr. Smith wants to sell 100 shares of XYZ stock. The order is 54. A sell limit order is place at 56. Sell limit orders are always placed above the market price. As soon as the pride rises to 56, if it ever does, the broker will execute it at 56 or higher. In no case will it be executed at less than 56.

The advantage of the limit order is that the doctor has a chance to buy at less or to sell at more than the current market price prevailing when he placed the order. He assumes that the market price will become more favorable in the future than it is at the time the order is placed. The word” chance ” is important. There is also the “chance” that the order will not be executed at all. The doctor just mentioned, who wanted to buy at 51, may never get his order filled since the price may not fall that low.  If he wanted to sell at 56, the order may also not ever be executed since it might not rise that high during the time period the order is in effect.

Stop Orders:

A very important type of order is the stop order, frequently called a stop-loss order. There are two distinct types of stop orders. One is the stop order to sell, called a sell stop, and the other is a stop order to buy, called a buy stop. Either type might be thought of as a suspended market order; it goes into effect only if the stock reaches or passes through a certain price.

The fact that the market price reaches or goes through the specified stop price does not mean the broker will obtain execution at the exact stop price. It merely means that the order becomes a market order and will be executed at the best possible price thereafter. The price specified on a stop order bears a relationship to the current market price exactly opposite to that on a limit order. Whereas a sell limit is placed at a price above the current market, a sell stop is placed at a price below the current market. Similarly, while a buy limit is placed at a price below the current market, a buy stop is placed at a price above the current market. Why would a doctor investor use a stop order?

There are two established uses for stop orders. One of them might be called protective, the other might be called preventive.

Protective: This order protects a doctors’ existing profit on a stock currently owned.

For example, a doctor purchases a stock at 60. It rises to 70. He has made a paper profit of $10 per share. He realizes that the market may reverse itself. He therefore gives his broker a stop order to sell at 67. If the reversal does occur and the price drops to 67 or less, the order immediately becomes a market order. The stock is disposed of at the best possible price. This may be exactly 67, or it may be slightly above or below that figure. Why? …Because what happened at 67 was that his order became a market order; the price he actually received was dependent upon the next activity in the market. Let us suppose that the sale was made at 66 1/2. The doctor customer made a gross profit of 6 1/2 points per share on his original purchase. Without the stop order, the stock may have dropped considerably below that before the customer could have placed a market order and his profit might have been less or, in fact, he might have even sold at a loss.

Preventive:

A doctor purchases 100 shares of a stock at 30. He obviously anticipates that the price of the stock will rise in the near future (why else would he buy?). However, he realizes that his judgment may be faulty. He therefore, at the time of purchase, places a sell stop order at a price somewhat below his purchase price, for example, at 28. As yet, he has made neither profit nor loss; he’s merely acting to prevent a loss that might follow if he made the wrong bet and the stock does fall in price. If the stock does drop, the doctor knows that once it gets as low as 28, a market order will be turned in for him and, therefore, he will lose only 2 points or thereabout. It might have been much more had he not used the sell stop.

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  Risk Management, Liability Insurance, and Asset Protection Strategies for Doctors and Advisors: Best Practices from Leading Consultants and Certified Medical Planners™8Comprehensive Financial Planning Strategies for Doctors and Advisors: Best Practices from Leading Consultants and Certified Medical Planners™

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Miscellaneous Orders and Positions

Beside market, limit  and stop orders, there are some other miscellaneous orders to know.

A stop limit order is a stop order that, once triggered or activated, becomes a limit order. Realize that it is possible for a stop limit to be triggered and not executed, as the limit price specified by the doctor may not be available.

In addition, there are all or none and fill or kill orders, and even though both require the entire order to be filled, there are distinct differences. An all or none (AON) is an order in which the broker is directed to fill the entire order or none of it. A fill or kill (FOK) is an order either to buy or to sell a security in which the broker is directed to attempt to fill the entire”‘ amount of the order immediately and in full, or that it be canceled.

The difference between an all or none and a fill or kill order is that with an all or none order, immediate execution is not required, while immediate execution is a critical component of the fill or kill. Be cause of the immediacy requirement, FOK orders are never found on the specialist’s book. Another difference is that AON orders are only permitted for bonds, not stocks, while FOK orders may be used for either.

Also, there exists an immediate or cancel order (IOC), which is an order to buy or sell a security in which the broker is directed to attempt to fill immediately as much of the order as possible and cancel any part remaining. This type of order differs from a fill or kill order which requires the entire order to be filled. An IOC order will permit a partial fill. Because of the immediacy requirement, IOC and FOK orders are never found on the specialist’s book.

Long and Short Positions

A long buy position means that shares are for sale from a market makers inventory, or owned by the medical investor, outright. Market makers take long positions when customers and other firms wish to sell, and they take short positions when customers and other firms want to buy in quantities larger than the market maker’s inventory. By always being ready, willing, and able to handle orders in this way, market makers assure the investing public of a ready market in the securities in which they are interested. When a security can be bought and sold at firm prices very quickly and easily, the security is said to have a high degree of liquidity, also known as marketability.

A short position investor seeks to make a profit by participating in the decline in the market price of a security.

Now, let’s see how these terms, long and short, apply to transactions by medical investors, rather than market makers, in the securities markets.

When a doctor buys any security, he is said to be taking a long position in that security. This means the investor is an owner of the security. Why does a doctor take a long position in a security? Beside, receiving dividend income, to make a profit from an increase in the market price. Once the security has risen sufficiently in price to satisfy the investor’s profit needs, the investor will liquidate his long position, or sell his stock. This would officially be known as a long sale of stock, though few people in the securities business use the label “long sale”. This is the manner in which the above investor had made a profit is the traditional method used; buy low, sell high.

Let’s look at an actual investment in General Motors to investigate this principle further. A medical investor has taken a long position in 100 shares of General Motors stock at a price of $70 per share. This means that the manner in which he can do that is by placing a market order which will be executed at the best “available market price at the time, or by the / placing of a buy limit order with a limit price of $70 per share. The investor firmly believes, on the basis of reports that he has read about the automobile industry and General Motors specifically, that at $70 a share, General Motors is a real bargain. He believes that based on its current level of performance, it should be selling for a price of between $80 and $85 per share. But, the doctor investor has a dilemma. He feels certain that the price is going to rise but he cannot watch his computer, or call his broker, every hour of every day. The reason he can’t watch is because patients have to be seen in the office. The only people who watch a computer screen all day are those in the offices of brokerage firms (stock broker registered representatives), and doctor day traders, among others.

In the above example, with a sell limit order, if the doctor investor was willing to settle for a profit of $12 per share, what order would he place at this time? If you said, “sell at $82 good ’til canceled”, you are correct. Why GTC rather than a day order? Because our doctor investor knows that General Motors is probably not going to rise from $70 to $82 in one day. If he had placed an order to sell at $82 without the GTC qualification, his order would have been canceled at the end of this trading day. He would have had to re-enter the order each morning until he got an execution at 82. Marking the order GTC (or open) relieves him of any need to replace the order every morning. Several weeks later, when General Motors has reached $82 per share in the market, his order to sell at 82 is executed. The medical investor has bought at 70 and sold at 82 and realized a $12 per share profit for his efforts.

Let’s suppose that the medical investor, who has just established a $12 per share profit, has evaluated the performance of General Motors common stock by looking at the market performance over a period of many years. Let’s further assume that the investor has found by evaluating the market price statistics of General Motors is that the pattern of movement of General Motors is cyclical. By cyclical, we mean that it moves up and down according to a regular pattern of behavior. Let’s say the investor has observed that in the past, General Motors had repeated a pattern of moving from prices in the $60 per share range as a low, to a high of approximately $90 per share. Further, our investor has observed that this pattern of performance takes approximately 10 to l2 months to do a full cycle; that is, it moves from about 60 to about 90 and back to about 60 within a period of roughly l2 months. If this pattern repeats itself continually, the investor would be well advised to buy the stock at prices in the low to mid 60’s hold onto it until it moves well into the 80’s, and then sell his long position at a profit. However, what this means is that our investor is going to be invested in General Motors only 6 months of each year. That is, he will invest when the price is low and, usually within half a year, it will reach its high before turning around and going back to its low again. How can the doctor investor make a profit not only on the rise in price of General Motors in the first 6 months of the cycle, but on the fall in price of General Motors in the second half of the cycle? One technique that is available is the use of the short sale.

The Short Sale

If a doctor investor feels that GM is at its peak of $ 90 per share, he may borrow 100 shares from his brokerage firm and sell the 100 shares of borrowed GM at $ 90. This is selling stock that is not owned and is known as a short sale. The transaction ends when the doctor returns the borrowed securities at a lower price and pockets the difference as a profit. In this case, the doctor investor has sold high, and bought low.

Odd Lots

Most of the thousands of buy and sell orders executed on a typical day on the NYSE are in 100 share or multi-100 share lots. These are called round lots. Some of the inactive stocks traded at post 30, the non-horseshoe shaped post in the northwest corner of the exchange, are traded in 70 share round lots due to their inactivity. So, while a round lot is normally 700 shares, there are cases where it could be 10 shares. Any trade for less than a round lot is known as an odd lot. The execution of odd lot orders is somewhat different than round lots and needs explanation.

When a stock broker receives an odd lot order from one of his doctor customers, the order is processed in the same manner as any other order. However, when it gets to the floor, the commission broker knows that this is an order that will not be part of the regular auction market. He takes the order to the specialist in that stock and leaves the order with the specialist. One of the clerks assisting the specialist records the order and waits for the next auction to occur in that particular stock. As soon as a round lot trade occurs in that particular stock as a result of an auction at the post, which may occur seconds later, minutes later, or maybe not until the next day, the clerk makes a record of the trade price.

Every odd lot order that has been received since the last round lot trade, whether an order to buy or sell, is then executed at the just noted round lot price, the price at which the next round lot traded after receipt of the customer’s odd lot order, plus or minus the specialist’s “cut “.  Just like everything else he does, the specialist doesn’t work for nothing. Generally, he will add 1/8 of a point to the price per share of every odd lot buy order and reduce the proceeds of each odd lot sale order by 1/8 per share. This is the compensation he earns for the effort of breaking round lots into odd lots. Remember, odd lots are never auctioned but, there can be no odd lot trade unless a round lot trades after receipt of the odd lot order.

Part 5 of 8: About Securities “Shelf Registration”

Conclusion

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DAILY UPDATE: New Coronavirus Variant and Stock Markets Both Up

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Health tech startup Guidehealth, which assists health systems with value-based care coordination, has raised $14 million in its seed round to make further investments in technology.


Clover Health reported a net income of $7.2 million during the second quarter and raised its full-year guidance.


And … Tenet Healthcare is selling five Alabama hospitals to Orlando Health and is entering into a new revenue cycle management arrangement through Conifer Health Solution

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What’s up

What’s down

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Here’s where the major stock market benchmarks ended:

  • The S&P 500 index (SPX) rose 53.7 points (1%) to 5,240.03; the Dow Jones Industrial Average® ($DJI) climbed 294.39 points (0.76%) to 38,997.66; the NASDAQ Composite ($COMP) advanced 166.77 points (1%) to 16,366,85.
  • The 10-year Treasury note yield (TNX) increased about 10 basis points to 3.88%.
  • The CBOE Volatility Index® (VIX) ended at 27.7, well above lows below 11 last month.

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A new coronavirus variant named KP.3.1.1 has risen to dominance in the U.S., almost doubling in prevalence in just two weeks, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention reports. Experts are warning that the new variant—which, as of August 3, accounts for more than 1 in 4 U.S. COVID-19 cases—is “more of a challenge” to our immune systems compared to previous variants.

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RSI: Relative Strength Index [Stock Markets]

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The relative strength index (RSI) is a technical indicator used in the analysis of financial markets. It is intended to chart the current and historical strength or weakness of a stock or market based on the closing prices of a recent trading period. The indicator should not be confused with relative strength.

The RSI is classified as a momentum oscillator, measuring the velocity and magnitude of price movements. Momentum is the rate of the rise or fall in price. The relative strength RS is given as the ratio of higher closes to lower closes. Concretely, one computes two averages of absolute values of closing price changes, i.e. two sums involving the sizes of candles in a candle chart. The RSI computes momentum as the ratio of higher closes to overall closes: stocks which have had more or stronger positive changes have a higher RSI than stocks which have had more or stronger negative changes.

The RSI is most typically used on a 14-day time frame, measured on a scale from 0 to 100, with high and low levels marked at 70 and 30, respectively. Short or longer time frames are used for alternately shorter or longer outlooks. High and low levels—80 and 20, or 90 and 10—occur less frequently but indicate stronger momentum.

The relative strength index was developed by J. Welles Wilder and published in a 1978 book, New Concepts in Technical Trading Systems, and in Commodities magazine (now Modern Trader magazine) in the June 1978 issue. It has become one of the most popular oscillator indices.

The RSI provides signals that tell investors to buy when the security or currency is oversold and to sell when it is overbought.

RSI with recommended parameters and its day-to-day optimization was tested and compared with other strategies in Marek and Šedivá (2017). The testing was randomized in time and companies and showed that RSI can still produce good results; however, in longer time it is usually overcome by the simple buy-and-hold strategy.

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DAILY UPDATE: Google Monopoly, Mag 7 Still Down as VIX “Fear Index” Rises and Stock Markets Plunge!

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A federal judge ruled that Google engaged in illegal practices to preserve its search engine monopoly, delivering a major antitrust victory to the Justice Department in its effort to rein in Silicon Valley technology giants. Google, which performs about 90 percent of the world’s internet searches, exploited its market dominance to stomp out competitors, U.S. District Judge Amit P. Mehta said in the long-awaited ruling.

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Stat: $900 billion. That’s the potential market value loss of the Magnificent Seven tech companies as investors shed tech stocks. The selloff comes as investors are looking for safer bets in the event of a recession. (Reuters)

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Here’s where the major benchmarks ended:

  • The S&P 500 index tanked 160.23 points (–3.00%) to 5,186.33; the Dow Jones Industrial Average® ($DJI) plunged 1,033.99 points (–2.60%) to 38,703.27; the NASDAQ Composite plummeted 576.08 points (–3.43%) to 16,200.08.
  • The 10-year Treasury note yield (TNX) dropped to 3.78%, the lowest close since June 2023.
  • The CBOE Volatility Index® (VIX) ended at 37.04, a four-year high but well-off intraday peaks above 60.

Today, the VIX reached levels not seen since early 2020 during the pandemic panic. This type of volatility can suggest oversold conditions. A higher VIX, sometimes called the “fear index,” reflects uncertainty and can suggest quicker, more intense market swings.

What’s up

What’s down

  • Apple stumbled 4.82% after Warren Buffett’s Berkshire Hathway revealed it has cut its position in the tech company by nearly 50%.
  • Nvidia fell 6.36% after a report this weekend revealed that its brand new chips will be delayed by three months or more due to design flaws.
  • Tesla sank 4.23% due to concerns about the auto maker’s global growth, despite Elon Musk’s recent positivity.
  • Intel continued to crumble, sliding 6.38% as the after-effects of its terrible second-quarter earnings report continue to be felt.
  • Bitcoin-related stocks plummeted today as cryptocurrencies were unable to avoid a major selloff. Coinbase plunged 7.32%, while MicroStrategy dropped 9.60%, and even Robinhood tumbled 8.17%.

Visualize: How private equity tangled banks in a web of debt, from the Financial Times.

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KEY PRINCIPLES: Assessing Medical Practice Financial Value via U.S.P.A.P. Rules

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When it comes to purchasing a medical practice, there are a variety of factors that one must consider in evaluating the worth of the practice. Assessing the value of a practice is fraught with potential landmines if one does not go into the process with a strong understanding of some key principles to medical practice valuation.

   According to the Dictionary of Health Economics and Finance, practice valuation is the “formal process of determining the worth of healthcare or other medical business entity at a specific point in time and the act or process of determining fair market value.” Fair market value is defined as “ … the price at which a willing buyer will buy and a willing seller will sell an asset in an open free market with full disclosure.”

   The Internal Revenue Service (IRS) Revenue Ruling 59-60 clearly states that fair market value “is essentially a future prophecy and must be based on facts available at the required date of appraisal.”

   Unfortunately, one cannot directly observe the value of a medical practice as there are a number of underlying issues. Obviously, the buyer and seller are pursuing opposite objectives, and this reality is not necessarily conducive to facilitating clarity on those issues.

   Accordingly, let us consider a few mistakes that are commonly made by physicians who are considering the purchase of a medical practice.

A Guide To The Myths And Realities Of Medical Practice Valuation

   • Valuations are material representations providing a range of transferable worth.
   • Valuations are reproducible estimates based on economic assumptions.
   • Valuations are not “back of the envelope multiples” using specious benchmarks.
   • Valuations are defensible and should be “signed off” by the completing firm attesting to origination guidelines and in accordance with the Uniform Standards of Professional Appraisal Practice (USPAP) and IRS formats as needed.
   • Financial accounting value (book value) is not fair market value.
   • Professional valuators represent only one party. The buyer or seller-owner is the client.
   • Unbiased valuators do not provide financing or equity participation schemes.

Knowing The Distinctions Among Engagement Types

   The Institute of Medical Business Advisors uses three levels that approximate engagement types for the industry. These levels are comprehensive valuation, limited valuation and ad-hoc valuation.

   A comprehensive valuation is an extensive service designed to provide an unambiguous opinion of the value range. It is supported by all procedures that valuators deem relevant with mandatory onsite review. This gold standard is suitable for contentious situations like divorce, partnership dissolution, estate planning and gifting, etc. The written opinion of value is applicable for litigation support activities like depositions and trial. It is also useful for external reporting to bankers, investors, the public and IRS, etc.

   A limited valuation lacks additional suggested USPAP procedures. It is considered to be an “agreed upon procedure,” which is used in circumstances in which the client is the only user. For example, one may use the limited valuation when updating a buy-sell agreement or when putting together a practice buy-in for a valued associate. This limited valuation would not be for external purposes. No onsite visit is needed. A formal opinion of value is not rendered.

   An ad-hoc valuation is a low level engagement that provides a gross and non-specific approximation of value based on limited limited parameters or concerns by involved parties. Neither a written report nor an opinion of value is rendered. The ad-hoc valuation is often used periodically as an internal organic growth/decline gauge.

Are You Following Industry Standards And Rules?

   Specifically, when it comes to USPAP transactions involving physician practices, the following points are implied by the industry and the IRS.

   • Discounted cash flow analysis is the most relevant income approach and must be done on an “after-tax” basis. It generally produces a higher value but is costly, detail-oriented and time consuming.
   • Project practice collections based on reasonable assumptions for the practice and market, etc.
   • Physician compensation is based on market rates consistent with age, experience and productivity.
   • Majority (control) premiums and minority (lack of control) discounts are also to be considered. A majority premium is the amount paid to gain enough ownership to set policies, direct operations and make decisions for the practice. A minority discount for partial ownership does not allow this power. Thus, majority ownership is valuated higher than minority ownership purchase.

What About Personal Goodwill And Practice Goodwill?

   Goodwill represents the difference between practice purchase price and the value of the net assets. Personal goodwill results from the charisma, skills and reputation of a specific doctor. These attributes accrue solely to the individual, are not transferable and cannot be sold. Personal goodwill has little or no economic value.

   Transferable medical practice goodwill has value, may be transferred and is defined as the unidentified residual attributes that contribute to the propensity of patients and managed care contracts (and their revenue streams) to return in the future.

   However, bear in mind that the Goodwill Registry, an older source used to determine the average percentage of revenue contributed to practice goodwill, has sparse to no podiatry input, may be dated for some specialties and leads to abnormally high values.

   In addition to various multiple factors, one must also appreciate the impact of a changing environment and practice transfer in a local market, which can augment or blunt goodwill value. It is also important to determine whether patients or HMOs return because of true goodwill or are mandated to do so by contractual obligations.

   Now to further confuse the issue, how each kind of goodwill is allocated in situations like divorce depends on state law. For example, some courts weigh in on the apportionment of both kinds of goodwill, other courts exclude both kinds of goodwill and other courts pursue a case-by-case approach.

Understanding ‘Excess Earnings Capitalization’ And Compensation Issues

   Another way to determine goodwill value is through “excess earnings capitalization.” This economic method looks at the difference between salary and what you would have to pay a comparable doctor replacement.

   As an example, when you subtract the numbers and divide the result by 20 percent, an important percentage referred to as the capitalization rate emerges. The final number gives a dollar value for practice goodwill. Courts seem to prefer this method in divorce situations because it tends to reflect a practice’s current value.

   Regardless of the practice business model, physician compensation is inversely related to practice value. In other words, the more a doctor takes home in above average salary, the less the practice is generally worth and vice versa.

Emphasize Practice Specifics Over Benchmarks And Formulas

   In the stable economic past, physicians may have used industry benchmarks as quick and inexpensive substitutes for professionally prepared valuations. However, this practice can be fraught with peril if challenged. The courts seem to frown on this simplistic and dated methodology. Moreover, generic benchmark formulas assume a financial statement reporting standard that just does not exist with contemporary professional valuations.

   Therefore, almost every competitive issue that impacts value should be addressed with each practice engagement. This includes but is not limited to:

   • contemporary dislocations by third parties, Medicare and commercial payers;
   • retail clinics and changes in supply/ demand and specialty trends;
   • the rise of ambulatory surgery centers, walk-in clinics and specialty hospitals;
   • outsourced care and medical tourism;
   • alterations in resource based-relative value units, ambulatory payment classifications (APCs), diagnosis-related groups (DRGs) and newer Medicare-severity diagnosis-related groups (MS-DRGs); and
• the Medicare Modernization Act, HIPAA, OSHA, the EEOC and other regulations.

   One must also consider the impact of current employee trends to high-deductible health care plans and private concierge medicine. Another consideration is employer shifts away from defined benefits plans to defined contribution plans.

Aggregating Or ‘Normalizing’ Financial Information: What You Should Know

   In addition to possibly conducting employee interviews, one must gather appropriate financial information in order to properly value a practice. As a starting point, interested physician buyers should be able to see the following information for the most recent three-year period.

   • Practice (corporate) tax returns
   • Equipment/automobile leasing and/or tax depreciation schedules
   • Accounts receivable aging schedule
   • Consolidated financial statements (P&L, cash flow, balance sheet and retained earnings)
   • Prior buy-sell and/or non-compete agreements

   It is especially important to eliminate one-time, non-recurring practice expenses. These are adjusted for excessive or below normal expenses on the profit and loss statement. Such “normalization” can produce a big surprise for benchmark proponents and formula-driven advocates when a selling doctor runs personal expenditures through the practice that a buyer or court would not consider legitimate. Of course, one is less likely to encounter such shenanigans when the valuation is conducted according to professional USPAP and IRS style guidelines.

   For example, we recall one doctor who painted his home and wrote it off as a valid business expense. Deleting other major expenses such as country club memberships make a practice look more profitable. This is good news if you are selling it. It is bad news if you are getting a divorce.

   Conversely, you may have to defend legitimate business expenses that an appraiser may seek to normalize. For example, doctors may pay for a vehicle through their practice. If they use the vehicle to travel between multiple offices and hospitals, the expense may be legitimate.

   Also realize that the appraiser may also add expenses that have not been incurred. For example, the appraiser may add an office manager’s salary if your spouse is in that role for free. This produces a lower appraised value and is common in small podiatry practices. Honorarium is another example that does not figure into value calculations.

   Of course, normalization is a sophisticated and time intensive process. However, the expert earns his or her professional fee, and defends the resulting valuation range when challenged.

Keys To Selecting The Right Valuator Professional

   The most important credentials to look for are fiduciary level experience, specificity and independence. Some doctors mistakenly turn to those who may have never appraised a practice before. Just because an appraiser has initials behind his or her name, it does not mean he or she understands the peculiarities of medical specialties. Agents, brokers, solicitors and other intermediaries are not fiduciaries.

   Physicians looking to assess a practice for possible sale/purchase should only select an independent health economist, who will be your advocate under Securities Exchange Commission (SEC), IRS or other relevant managerial accounting guidelines.

   Moreover, be very wary if the valuation is not done in an independent manner or, worse, performed for both parties simultaneously.

Essential Insights On Professional Fees And What You Can Expect

   Of course, it is almost impossible to answer concerns regarding fees without specific information. The cost of a valuation can range from $0 to $50,000 for an onsite team of experts for behemoth practices and ambulatory surgery centers. Keep in mind that in most cases you want to ensure the value determination will stand up to IRS scrutiny so the $0 rule of thumb approach is not an option.

   However, most reputable firms use a blended fee schedule of fixed and hourly rates (plus expenses). Internists should expect to spend approximately $5,000 to $10,000 for an average sized practice and a limited appraisal that is completely suitable for most internal activities.

   External appraisals or poorly aggregated financial information, onsite reviews and litigation support services incur additional costs. However, most doctors find the money well spent. Expect to pay a retainer and sign a formal professional engagement letter.

   Finally, once the practice price is agreed upon, sales contract terms and agreements present a plethora of financing challenges for both parties to consider. For example, one must negotiate bank loans (if they are even available), payment rates and length, personal promissory guarantees, down payment offsets, earn-out arrangements and Uniform Commercial Codes.

Final Notes

   Do not be surprised if a sales broker does not consider the aforementioned issues as the modern health era emerges. Most agent-appraisers are predominantly concerned with earning commissions by working both transaction parties and may not represent your best interests. Also be aware that they are usually not obliged to disclose conflicts of interest and do not provide testimony as a court approved expert witness.

   However, it is a fait accompli that medical practice worth is presently deteriorating. As the population ages and third-party reimbursements plummet, doctors are commoditized and traditional retail medicine is replaced by more efficient wholesale business models like workplace health clinics. The subprime mortgage default fiasco, credit freeze, potential tax reform law expiration, the ACA, VBC, capitation payments and the political specter of a nationalized healthcare system only add fuel to the macroeconomic fires of uncertainty. Do not forget the corona pandemic.

   As a result, a good medical practice is no longer good business necessarily and retiring doctors can no longer automatically expect to extract premium sales prices. Moreover, uninformed young physicians should not be goaded to overpay.

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HEALTH ECONOMICS: Podcast and Research Paper Presentations

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RECESSION INDICATOR: Inverted Yield Curve?

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When economic trouble and/or uncertainty is brewing, it’s not uncommon for the US Treasury yield curve to flatten or even invert. A yield curve inversion, like we’re experiencing now, involves short-term-maturing bonds sporting higher yields than longer-dated Treasury bonds. It’s an indication that investors are worried about the U.S. economic outlook.

For the past 64 years, the Federal Reserve Bank of New York has used the Treasury yield spread between the 10-year bond rate and three-month bond rate to calculate the probability of a U.S. recession occurring within the next 12 months. Over these 64 years, the probability of a recession has topped 25% a dozen times and 40% on eight occasions. 

With the exception of a peak probability of a recession of 41.14% in October 1966, the New York Fed’s recession-forecasting tool hasn’t been wrong if it’s surpassed 40%. In other words, if the New York Fed’s recession probability indicator surpasses 40%, we’ve had a recession within 12 months, without fail, for more than a half-century.

In December 2022, this recession probability tool hit 47.31%. That’s the highest reading since 1981, and a very clear indication that economic activity is expected to slow at some point in 2024?

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On the Financial Advice “Suitability” Standard

 It  Does Not Mean What You Think

By Rick Kahkler CFP® 

If you wanted hiking footwear, you probably would be surprised if a salesperson at an outdoors store suggested flip-flops. You would expect someone knowledgeable about hiking to recommend sturdy boots or shoes more suitable for your needs.

In the same way, if you consulted someone who sells financial products, you probably would expect them to recommend investments that are suitable for your needs. In fact, securities law provides a “suitability” standard for financial advisers who receive commissions for selling products like insurance, annuities, or non-public REITs.

Definition

Unfortunately, when it comes to investments, the word “suitability” does not mean what you probably think it means. It requires only that the adviser is honest with you and that you are legally able to evaluate and purchase the product. It does not require that the product be good for you to own in terms of being best for or even appropriate for your needs.

On the other hand, securities law requires advisers who charge fees for financial advice to be held to a “fiduciary” standard, which means they must be impartial, unbiased, and work as an advocate for clients.

http://www.HealthDictionarySeries.org

Assuming a financial representative is giving you “fiduciary” advice when in fact that person is only required to provide “suitable” advice could mean the difference between investment success or financial disaster. I mean for that to sound dire and alarming, because it is. I will even dare to say that understanding the difference between fiduciary and suitable advice is more important than the investment itself.

My alarmist opinion is supported by a recent article, “The Real Cost(s) of Suitability,” by financial editor Bob Veres. To find out whether consumers are actually harmed by relying on “suitable” advice, he gathered stories from over 100 subscribers to his Inside Information newsletter, most of whom are fiduciaries.

These examples are heartbreaking.

They include:

  • Financial advisers who sold high-premium, high-commission life insurance “investments” to customers who, in some cases, had to borrow from retirement accounts or take distributions to pay the premiums—as well as pay income taxes and penalties on the distributions.
  • Financial advisers who moved customers’ conservatively invested retirements funds into high-fee annuities, promising guarantees of no losses and returns of 5% that under scrutiny proved fictitious and will never be realized.
  • Financial advisers who made excessive numbers of trades, not to benefit customers but to generate transaction fees.
  • Financial advisers whose “suitable” recommendations, in too many cases, not only reduced clients’ investment returns, but actually drained clients’ portfolios and greatly damaged their ability to provide adequately for themselves in retirement.

Veres quoted Kathleen Campbell, of Campbell Financial Partners in Fort Myers, FL, as saying, “Suitable means plenty suitable for the broker and not so suitable for the client.” She called suitability “one of the biggest farces in the financial advisory world.”

I absolutely agree. It is essential to know whether a financial representative is held to a fiduciary or suitability standard.

Here’s how to tell the difference:

  • If you pay a fee for financial advice, with no sale or obligation to purchase a product, that’s a fiduciary adviser.
  • If there is no fee, you are dealing with a “suitability standard” broker, agent, or representative who has no legal requirement to give you unbiased advice.

Assessment

Understanding when you are getting impartial advice that’s in your best interests, and when you are getting conflicted and biased advice that is in the adviser’s best interest, is critical to your financial health.

Please, be wary of advisers whose recommendations emphasize “no fees.” Their “suitable” advice may leave you in a perilous situation—one much worse than wandering through the wilderness in flip-flops instead of hiking shoes. 

Conclusion

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IPO: Ackman Fund Postponed

By Staff Reporters

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Bill Ackman’s fund postpones IPO

The billionaire hedge fund boss and frequent main character on X has delayed the stock market debut of the closed-end fund Pershing Square USA, which was scheduled for early next week, a notice on the New York Stock Exchange’s website said.

The decision to wait came days after Ackman said in a letter to investors that the firm was downsizing its expectations for the share sale from a target of about $25 billion (which would have made it the largest-ever IPO of its kind) to something between $2.5 billion and $4 billion.

Ackman has a similar fund already trading shares in Europe and has hinted he might take his larger firm, Pershing Square, public as soon as next year.

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The “Magnificent 7” and the Dangers of Stock Market Hype

By Vitaliy Katsenelson CFA

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The Magnificent 7 and the Dangers of Market Hype
You can also listen to a professional narration of this article on iTunes & online.
Despite the S&P 500 showing gains in the mid-teens, the average stock on the market is either up slightly or flat for the year. Most of the gains in the index came from the Magnificent 7 stocks, which constitute 35% of the index! The equal-weighted index, where the Magnicent 7 have only a 1.4% weight, is up only about 4% this year (as of this writing). 

The Magnificent 7 are starting to look like the Nifty Fifty stocks from the 1970s (Kodak, Polaroid, Avon, Xerox, and others) – stocks you “had to own” or you were left behind – until all your gains were taken away or you faced a decade or two of no returns. Forty years later, it’s easy to dismiss these companies as has-beens. They’ve all either gone bankrupt or become irrelevant.

But back then, they were the stars of corporate America, just like the Magnificent 7 are today.
As an investor, it’s crucial to know which games you play and which ones you don’t.

Let me explain: The Magnificent 7 and the Dangers of Market Hype

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STOCK MARKET “FRONT RUNNING”

By Staff Reporters

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According to Wikipedia, front running, also known as tailgating, is the practice of entering into an equity (stock) trade, option, futures contract, derivative, or security-based swap to capitalize on advance, nonpublic knowledge of a large (“block”) pending transaction that will influence the price of the underlying security. In essence, it means the practice of engaging in a personal or proprietary securities transaction in advance of a transaction in the same security for a client’s account.

Front running is considered a form of market manipulation in many markets. Cases typically involve individual brokers or brokerage firms trading stock in and out of undisclosed, unmonitored accounts of relatives or confederates. Institutional and individual investors may also commit a front running violation when they are privy to inside information.

A front running firm either buys for its own account before filling customer buy orders that drive up the price, or sells for its own account before filling customer sell orders that drive down the price. Front running is prohibited since the front-runner profits come from nonpublic information, at the expense of its own customers, the block trade, or the public market.

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High-profile short seller accused of fraud.

Citron Research founder Andrew Left is used to being the one calling out fraud, but federal prosecutors and the SEC claimed he’s the one pulling a financial fast one. The government alleges that Left committed securities fraud by using his appearances on television and his social media accounts to make misleading statements that manipulated the market—and reaped $16 million in profit for doing so.

Left declined to comment to news outlets, but his lawyer told the Wall Street Journal that the government’s cases were “based on a defective theory” and targeted Left for sharing his opinions.

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What is the “Endowment” Effect?

The “Endowment” Effect

[By staff reporters]

In psychology and behavioral economics, the endowment effect (also known as divestiture aversion and related to the mere ownership effect in social psychology) is the hypothesis that people ascribe more value to things merely because they own them.

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MORE: https://www.interaction-design.org/literature/topics/endowment-effect

MORE: What is the “Butterfly” Effect?

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DAILY UPDATE: Hacking Hospitals and Urinary Catheter Scam as Broad Stock Markets Gain

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According to a recent report in the Washington Post, a $3 billion scam involving urinary catheters has brought to light serious flaws in Medicare, prompting strong calls for reform.

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Here’s where the major benchmarks ended:

  • The S&P 500 rose about 60 points (1.1%) to 5,459.10; the Dow Jones Industrial Average was up 654 points (1.6%) at 40,589.34; the NASDAQ Composite ended 176 points higher (1.0%) at 17,357.88.
  • The 10-year Treasury note yield (TNX) fell five basis points to 4.197%.
  • The CBOE Volatility Index® (VIX) slipped 10% to 16.56.

What’s up

What’s down

  • Dexcom plummeted 40.66% after management cut the diabetes monitoring company’s full-year revenue guidance.
  • Biogen sank 7.15% after European regulators denied marketing authorization for the pharma company’s new Alzheimer’s drug.
  • Weight Watchers fell 12.50% after Morgan Stanley analysts downgraded the company from overweight to equal weight based on the long-term headwinds it faces from obesity drugs.

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The US is raising alarm bells about a North Korean hacking group that broke into NASA, two US Air Force bases, and several defense companies.  The FBI, NSA and State Department just called out the North Korean hacking group “Andariel” for committing cyber espionage and using ransomware attacks on US hospitals to fund its operations. 

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Stat: 524. That’s how many employees Optum is laying off in California. (Becker’s Health IT)

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SPAC v. Direct Listing v. IPO?

What’s the difference between an IPO, a special purpose acquisition company (SPAC), and a direct listing?

[By staff reporters]

IPOs are a 6–12 month journey where a company works with investment banks and underwriters, who buy a bunch of shares and then sell them to investors in the public market during the actual IPO. Early investors are able to liquidate their shares, and the company raises new funds.

Direct listings skip the underwriting hullabaloo. But without that stability guarantee, direct listings can result in a more volatile opening. Some companies, like Coinbase, find that it’s worth it to keep their hard-earned money out of bankers’ hands.

SPACs, aka “blank-check companies,” offer yet another alternative path to public markets. A SPAC is a shell company that raises money through the traditional IPO process, then merges with a private company and takes it public. 

MORE: https://medicalexecutivepost.com/2019/06/24/what-is-a-direct-listing-process-on-wall-street/

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DOW JONES INDUSTRIAL AVERAGE: 30 “Blue Chip” Stock Index Update

By Staff Reporters

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The Dow Jones Industrial Average is a collection of 30 “blue-chip” U.S. stocks. Blue chip = big, established, and influential companies like Microsoft, JPMorgan, Disney, and McDonald’s. The Dow recently updated its roster, swapping ExxonMobil, Pfizer, and Raytheon for Salesforce, biotech Amgen, and manufacturing heavyweight Honeywell.

The Dow is weighted by share price, so higher-priced stocks have more influence on the index’s total value. Price-weighting also means that if the price of any stock in the Dow changes by $1, it has the same impact on the index, even though a $1 increase to a stock worth $20 is more significant (relatively) than a $1 change to a stock worth, say, $40.

  • During stock splits—when a company increases its number of outstanding shares and chops prices by the same factor—a company’s influence in the Dow can fall even if their market value doesn’t change. The Dow has some mechanisms to account for stock splits, but they can still lead to a shakeup in the index (like what happened last summer).

At 124 years old, the Dow has had plenty of time to cement its reputation as a leading indicator of the stock market. But with only 30 stocks representing a smattering of U.S. corporate titans, it’s not exactly representative.

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At one point the Dow Jones Industrial Average was up 585 points before it sold off later yesterday afternoon, though it wrapped the trading session with a small win. The S&P 500 fought its way into positive territory but struggled to stay there, eventually sinking into negative territory at the end of the day.

As for the NASDAQ, the tech selloff continued to punish the index for most of yesterday afternoon. Treasury yields fell a bit on positive GDP news, though the big PCE [personal consumption expenditures] announcement is the one investors have been waiting for.

Oil popped on a stronger than expected GDP reading, with traders banking on future economic growth and stronger oil demand.

Bitcoin sank a bit yesterday ahead of a major conference that could set the tone for the entire digital asset industry for years to come.

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DAILY UPDATE: The US Economy of KH and Medicare [Part C] with Mixed Stock Markets

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The Wall Street Journal explores what Kamala Harris as president would mean for the economy. (the Wall Street Journal)

  • Q2 GDP was shockingly strong, with today’s reading of 2.8% growth outpacing the 2.1% economists expected.
  • The Japanese yen is rising while US tech stocks are falling.
  • You’re in my seat: Southwest Airlines is getting rid of its open seating arrangement and shifting to assigned seats.
  • 32 charts that tell you everything you need to know about markets midway through 2024 at a glance.
  • The Fed should cut interest rates at next week’s meeting, according to the former president of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
  • Bill Ackman is trying to turn social media stardom into profit.

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Here’s where the major stock market benchmarks ended:

  • The S&P 500® index (SPX) fell about 28 points (0.5%) to 5,399.22; the Dow Jones Industrial Average® ($DJI) rose 81 points (0.2%) to 39,935.07; the NASDAQ Composite ended 161 points lower (0.9%) at 17,181.72.
  • The 10-year Treasury note yield (TNX) dropped four basis points to 4.255%.
  • The CBOE Volatility Index® (VIX)declined 0.6% to 17.94.

What’s up

What’s down

  • Universal Music Group tumbled 23.54% after subscription and streaming revenues fell well short of analyst expectations.
  • Ford plummeted 18.40% for the automaker’s worst day of trading since 2009 after it missed profit expectations and provided no positive forecast for the quarters ahead.
  • Lululemon slid 9.09% thanks to a downgrade from Citi analysts from “buy” to “neutral” predicated on a sales slowdown.
  • Royal Caribbean sank 7.61% after the company indicated that it’s facing a slowdown in demand.
  • Edwards Lifesciences crashed 31.27% thanks to a mixed earnings report, as well as management’s guidance that sales for its key heart valve replacement therapy will sink next quarter.

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Thousands of seniors are losing coverage at local hospitals as problems plague Medicare Advantage. Lower payout rates for Medicare and Medicaid are sparking insurance companies to leave certain areas and change coverage options across the country.

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DAILY UPDATE: Digital Therapeutics, FSEDs, Medical Costs and the NASDAQ Collapse

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You’ve heard of an emergency department and an urgent care center, but have you heard of a freestanding emergency department (FSED)? While only 1% of FSEDs were freestanding in 2001, that figure jumped to 11% in 2016, totaling 566 facilities nationwide. The concept of FSEDs dates back to the 1970s, when these facilities provided emergency care to people in rural areas who didn’t have convenient access to hospitals. In 2001, there were only 50 FSEDs in the US—now there are about 745, according to 2018 research by the Emergency Medicine Network, which Herscovici worked on.

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Here’s where the major benchmarks ended:

  • The S&P 500 fell about 129 points (2.3%) to 5,427.13; the Dow Jones Industrial Average shed 504 points (1.3%) to 39,853.87; the NASDAQ Composite ended 655 points lower (3.6%) at 17,342.41.
  • The 10-year Treasury note yield (TNX) rose four basis points to 4.291%.
  • The CBOE Volatility Index® (VIX) surged 23% to 18.13.

What’s up

  • Enphase Energy gained 12.80% despite missing earnings estimates as investors cheered management’s very positive forecast for the solar company’s future.
  • AT&T phoned in a 5.22% pop after reporting a stronger than expected increase in its number of wireless subscribers, a key metric its competitor Verizon recently missed on.
  • Mattel rose yet another 9.80% as takeover rumors continue to swirl, with reports that rival toy maker Hasbro could place a competing bid.
  • Seagate Technology jumped 4.02% thanks to a strong earnings report from the hardware maker.

What’s down

  • Visa slid 4.01% after missing analyst estimates for revenue thanks to slower consumer spending.
  • AMC Entertainment Holdings fell 7.68% after the company tried to get ahead of bad news and released preliminary earnings that impressed nobody.
  • Vertiv Holdings sank 13.64% despite beating earnings estimates, with investors seemingly worried about the AI play’s sky-high valuation.
  • General Dynamics stumbled 3.32% thanks to fewer deliveries of its high-end jets last quarter.
  • Lamb Weston dropped like a hot potato, plunging 28.24% after the frozen food supplier announced earnings well below expectations and forecast a terrible second half of the year.

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The Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services (CMS) proposed CPT payment codes for some digital therapeutics products for the first time, potentially paving a pathway toward widespread reimbursement for the nascent industry.

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In 2025, medical costs are projected to increase 8% in the group market and 7.5% in the individual market—the highest levels seen in 13 years—according to an analysis from consulting firm PwC’s Health Research Institute. The anticipated rise is mainly pinned on inflationary pressure, expensive pharmaceuticals, and an increasing number of patients seeking mental health care, analysts found.

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DAILY UPDATE: Ardent Health IPO, Davita Settles, Amex Reports with Choppy Stock Markets

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Stat: 13%. That’s how much millennial and Gen Z spending increased year over year, according to American Express earnings released last week. Amex reported slower growth in travel and entertainment compared to the previous quarter, but restaurant spending “remained strong.” (PYMNTS)

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Here’s where the major stock market benchmarks ended:

  • The S&P 500 fell about 9 points (0.16%) to 5,555.69; the Dow Jones Industrial Average shed 57 points (0.14%) to 40,358.09; the NASDAQ Composite ($COMP) ended 10 points lower (0.06%) at 17,997.35.
  • The 10-year Treasury note yield (TNX) was unchanged at 4.255%.
  • The CBOE Volatility Index® (VIX) decreased about 2% to 14.62.

What’s up

What’s down

  • UPS delivered a 12.05% dip, falling to new all-time lows after missing analyst earnings expectations, as well as cutting its revenue forecast.
  • NXP Semiconductors plunged 7.58% on management’s poor revenue forecast for the coming quarter, despite meeting expectations this quarter.
  • Comcast sank 2.58% on a mixed earnings announcement that saw the company beat on earnings but miss revenue thanks to a slow theme parks segment.
  • GM stalled 6.43% despite announcing solid earnings—investors didn’t like to hear management note that the second half of the year will be a lot tougher.

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Kidney care giant DaVita has agreed to pay nearly $34.5 million to settle allegations that it paid kickbacks for referrals to its former DavitaRx subsidary.


And … Ardent Health was targeting a $300 million IPO but raised just $192 million.

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DAILY UPDATE: UnitedHealth Group and PBMs as Technology Stocks Soar

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Here’s where the major stock market benchmarks ended:

The Cboe Volatility Index® (VIX) fell sharply to 14.91.

The S&P 500® index (SPX) rose 59.41 points (1.1%) to 5,564.41; the Dow Jones Industrial Average® ($DJI) climbed 127.91 points (0.3%) to 40,415.44; the NASDAQ Composite® ($COMP)jumped 280.63 points (1.6%) to 18,007.57. 

The 10-year Treasury note yield (TNX) added two basis points to 4.26%.

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What’s up

What’s down

  • Crowdstrike withered another 13.46% as the fallout from what’s being hailed as the largest IT outage in history continues to punish the stock.
  • Trump Media & Technology Group dipped 0.83% during the trading session after President Biden’s announcement that he’s dropping out of the presidential race.
  • Verizon sank 6.04% after whiffing on its earnings report, missing on revenue thanks to customers holding on to their old phones for longer.
  • Ryanair crumbled 15.41% following an earnings report that revealed the company’s earnings after taxes sank an eye-watering 46% last quarter.
  • Starbucks dropped 3.43% on a report by the Wall Street Journal late last week that activist investor Elliott Investment Management has taken a stake in the coffee chain.

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The US House of Representatives Committee on Oversight and Accountability is holding a hearing tomorrow, bringing in PBMs from around the US to testify on “their role in rising healthcare costs.” The hearing comes soon after an FTC report found PBMs to have an “outsized influence” on drug pricing.

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The February cyberattack on a UnitedHealth Group subsidiary may have exposed the health data of one in three Americans, but the nation’s largest health insurance company by market cap and revenue returned to profitability in the second quarter, beating Wall Street expectations and reporting net income of $4.2 billion.

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DAILY UPDATE: Starbucks, Crowdstrike, US Banks and Charles Schwab

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Shares of Charles Schwab (NYSE: SCHW) fell over 15% last week, according to data from S&P Global Market Intelligence. One of the largest brokerages posted slow growth and poor earnings as the company deals with low-yielding assets on its balance sheet. As of 1:31 p.m. ET on Friday, July 19th, Charles Schwab stock was down 17.5% this week.

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Activist investor Elliott Investment Management has reportedly built up a substantial stake in Starbucks and has been pushing the coffee chain to improve its stock price.

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Markets: The S&P 500 logged its worst week since April as investors pulled back from Big Tech stocks. CrowdStrike fell because causing a global IT outage is not good (more on that in a sec).

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In a recent video, finance YouTuber Lena Petrova highlighted the troubling financial state of U.S. banks as they report significant losses and increase their reserves to cover a surge in loan delinquencies. With the second quarter results rolling in, it’s evident that the banking sector is under considerable strain.

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ECONOMIC LANDSCAPE: Understanding Today

By Vitaliy Katsenelson CFA

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Interest rates that stay low and actually keep declining for almost a quarter of a century slowly propagate deep into the fabric of the economy.

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Interest rates went up and refused to decline. They are high in relation to where they came from, but they look reasonable in relation to inflation, which is running about 3%.

Bulls argue that current interest rates only appear to be high in relation to the last 20 years, and they are actually low if you look at the 30 years before the turn of the century. This argument is historically accurate, but it is missing a very important point – interest rates that stay low and actually keep declining for almost a quarter of a century slowly propagate deep into the fabric of the economy.

Let me try this analogy.

HERE: Understanding Today’s Economic Landscape

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DAILY UPDATE: Crowdstrike Price, Banks and Healthcare

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CrowdStrike saw its share price plummet Friday, although it is still up ~24% YTD. At $74.2 billion, CrowdStrike has the second-largest market cap in the IT security industry, behind only Palo Alto Networks ($107.1 billion), and reported $900 million in revenue for the quarter ending in April, per Reuters. It’s got ~29,000 customers, which is part of why the outage caused so much havoc.

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Crowdstrike Banks: Some traders at JPMorgan Chase, UBS, Bloomberg, and other financial institutions couldn’t execute orders yesterday morning, with one unnamed senior trader telling the Financial Times that it was “the biggest upset in years.”

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Crowdstrike Healthcare: Many hospitals—including some of the largest in Europe and the US—were forced to cancel all elective operations, routine appointments, and walk-ins, and online portals for most UK general practitioners went down.

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DAILY UPDATE: Public Companies and the Stock Market Software Snafu Wraps Up Worst Week Since April

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42,500. That’s how many people died in car accidents in 2022, which experts believe was exacerbated during the Covid-19 pandemic, as reckless driving worsened and traffic enforcement decreased. (KFF)

“These attacks and breaches of data can literally mean the difference between life and death for patients, significantly impact hospital operations, and—with the average hack costing millions to address—increase healthcare prices across the board.”—Sen. Angus King about a bill he co-sponsored to improve cybersecurity in healthcare (Healthcare Dive)

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Here’s where the major benchmarks ended:

  • The S&P 500® index (SPX) dropped 39.59 points (–0.7%) to 5,505.00 and ended down 1.97% for the week, its worst weekly performance in three months; the Dow Jones Industrial Average® ($DJI) slipped 377.49 points (–0.9%) to 40,287.53 on Friday and finished up less than 1% for the week; the NASDAQ Composite® ($COMP)fell 144.28 points (–0.81%) on Friday to 17,726.94 and lost 3.65% for the week.
  • The 10-year Treasury note yield (TNX) rose four basis points to nearly 4.24% and finished up for the week, partly on worries about possible U.S. tariffs and their potential impact on inflation.
  • The CBOE Volatility Index closed at 16.47 after climbing above 17 intraday for the first time since late April.
  • Markets sagged under the weight of a massive IT outage, accentuating a selloff that was already in motion. All three indexes spent the day in the red, with the S&P 500 capping off its worst week since April and the NASDAQ snapping its six-week win streak.
  • The CBOE Volatility Index, a gauge of investor fear, rose to its highest level since April. The VIX is up over 25% in the last five days alone, as the small-cap rotation rally sputtered to a halt.
  • Oil took a big blow today as US Secretary of State Anthony Blinken said a cease-fire between Israel and Hamas is nearly complete.
  • Gold sold off as well as investors not only took profits after the commodity hit a new all-time high this week, but also began to rotate into riskier assets in light of a likely Fed rate cut.

What’s up

What’s down

  • SunPower transformed into a stock submarine, sinking 55.01% after the company made it clear it’s about to go out of business.
  • American Express fell faster than a greased pig on skates, sliding 2.68% after beating bottom line expectations but missing on revenue.
  • Plug Power turned into a lead balloon, descending 13.87% after management declared a $200 million stock offering.
  • Halliburton crumbled like a cookie, dropping 5.63% following a mixed earnings report that saw the fracking giant fall short of revenue expectations.
  • Travelers journeyed to the center of the Earth, burrowing 7.73% after beating earnings expectations, missing on revenue, and revealing that catastrophe losses came in higher than hoped.
  • Comerica sank like a stone, plummeting 10.50% due to lower net interest income last quarter and forecasts of lower interest income in the quarters ahead.

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It’s common for patients to delay or skip medical care due to high costs in the US—but data shows that fewer adults have done so in recent years.

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PODCAST: Early Retirement and Health Insurance

By Staff Reporters

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DAILY UPDATE: Public Companies and the Stock Market Technology Sell-Off

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The S&P 500 and NASDAQ both continued to sink under the weight of a tech selloff today, with semiconductors leading the way down. But even the Dow and Russell 2000, which have been the clear winners of the recent rally, took a beating today as investors assessed what a market rotation really means for them. 10-year Treasury yields bounced from recent lows as investors try to read between the lines of a full week of Fedspeak. Gold and oil both sold off a bit more today, though both remain near recent highs.

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What’s up

What’s down

  • Domino’s Pizza sank 13.42% after it missed earnings expectations last quarter and warned it will open fewer stores for the rest of 2024.
  • Beyond Meat tanked 10.32% on a report from the Wall Street Journal that management is in talks to restructure the company’s debt.
  • Eli Lilly slid another 6.24% as its selloff continues thanks to news that rival Roche Holdings is on its way to developing a weight-loss pill.
  • Nokia dropped 7.05% after posting its worst quarterly sales since 2015. Seems like nobody is buying phones with the shape and durability of a brick any more.

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Here’s where the major benchmarks ended:

  • The S&P 500 index fell 43.68 points (–0.78%) to 5,544.59; the Dow Jones Industrial Average® ($DJI) lost 533.06 points (–1.29%) to 40,665.02; the NASDAQ Composite gave up 125.70 points (–0.7%) to 17,871.22.
  • The 10-year Treasury note yield (TNX) rose about four basis points to 4.18%.
  • The CBOE Volatility Index climbed sharply to 15.9, its highest close since late April.

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DAILY UPDATE: UnitedHealth, Aetna, Long Covid and Physician Burnout as NASDAQ Collapses

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The Dow surged another 240 points as the cyclical rotation continues, sending the index to its 22nd record closing high of the year. The S&P 500 had its worst day since late April, while the NASDAQ slumped to its worst finish since December 2022. The last time the Dow rose on the same day the S&P 500 fell by more than 1% was all the way back in 1999. Gold hit a record high yesterday on hopes of a rate cut, not a hike. Oil bubbled up thanks to an Energy Information Administration report highlighting higher demand and lower crude inventories. Bond yields stayed steady throughout the trading session before sinking slightly 20-year Treasury bond auction.

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Here’s where the major benchmarks ended:

  • The S&P 500® index (SPX) fell 78.93 points (–1.39%) to 5,588.27; the Dow Jones Industrial Average added 243.6 points (0.59%) to 41,198.08; the NASDAQ Composite plunged 512.41 points (–2.77%) to 17,996.92.
  • The 10-year Treasury note yield (TNX) dropped just below 4.15%.
  • The CBOE Volatility Index jumped sharply to 14.48.

What’s up

  • VF Corp. rose 13.64% on the news that it is selling its Supreme brand to EssilorLuxottica for $1.5 billion.
  • Roche soared 7.55% after the Swiss pharmaceutical company announced it has made strides in developing a weight-loss and diabetes treatment that uses a pill rather than an injection. Competitors sank on the news, with Eli Lilly declining 3.78% and Novo Nordisk falling 3.87%.
  • GitLab popped 9.34% on a report that the software developer is exploring a sale, potentially to cloud company Datadog, whose shares fell 7.35%.
  • Johnson & Johnson rose a tepid 3.67% thanks to a mixed earnings announcement that included beating expectations this quarter but warning of lower profits ahead.

What’s down

  • Spirit Airlines descended 10.76% to a new all-time low after warning that both earnings and revenue will come in lower than expected this coming quarter.
  • Five Below plummeted 25.05% after its CEO, who has helmed the company for over a decade, announced his departure smack in the middle of a very difficult year.
  • J.B. Hunt tanked 6.88% thanks to a poor second-quarter earnings report in which earnings and revenue came in well below analyst expectations.
  • Charles Schwab fell yet another 5.34% as the hits keep coming. Today, the culprit was a price target downgrade from Bank of America analysts.
  • Elevance Health slipped 5.96% despite beating analyst expectations this quarter, but warning that Medicaid membership declined.

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UnitedHealth Group has bounced back in the second quarter, reaffirming its guidance for the year as it posts a profit of $4.2 billion


An audit of Aetna Health of Texas found significant errors in how the health plan calculated the qualifying payment amount for air ambulance services, raising more questions over broader noncompliance in the industry for the No Surprises Act.


And … clinical decision software company Regard pocketed $61 million in series B funding to scale its reach in healthcare as investors have a growing appetite for AI-powered startups.

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A study published in JAMA this month found that nearly 7% of the US population (or roughly 18 million people) have had long Covid. Symptoms of the condition vary widely, but often include fatigue, brain fog, and post-exertional malaise (meaning symptoms worsen after minimal exertion), according to the CDC. Booster shots may help protect against long Covid, the JAMA study suggested.

And, President Joe Biden tested positive for COVID-19 while campaigning in Las Vegas with ‘mild symptoms’.

Physician burnout is on the decline after spiking to unprecedented levels during the Covid-19 pandemic, according to a survey from professional group the American Medical Association (AMA).

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DAILY UPDATE: Apple, Macy’s, Goldman, Banks, Companies and the Roaring DJIA

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  • The Dow jumped 700 points at one point today, its biggest single-day surge this year. The S&P 500 spent the entire trading session in positive territory, ending the afternoon at another record close, while the NASDAQ was flat most of the day as tech stocks sat out the rally.
  • Bitcoin continued to surge, rising as high as $65,191 as predictions of a second Trump presidency helped erase the cryptocurrency’s recent losses.
  • Gold hit a new record as hopes of a rate hike continue to rise, while oil sank on the news of slower economic growth in China translating to lower demand for crude.
  • The Russell 2000 enjoyed its 5th straight gain of 1% or more for the first time since 1979 as small caps make their comeback (more on that below).

***

Apple released public beta versions of the newest software for iPhone, Mac, iPad, and Apple Watch. Macy’s ended talks of a buyout with investment firms Arkhouse Management and Brigade Capital Management after months of wrangling. Goldman Sachs was the latest big bank to benefit from rebounding investment banking fees as deals start making a comeback.

CITE: https://www.r2library.com/Resource

Despite such challenges as high interest rates, a sluggish M&A market, and increased regulatory scrutiny, bank executives are feeling optimistic about the road ahead. That’s according to KPMG’s 2024 US Banking Industry Outlook Survey, published last month, which polled 200 senior executives at US banks of varying sizes in March 2024.

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Here’s where the major benchmarks ended:

  • The S&P 500® index (SPX) rose 35.98 points (0.64%) to 5,667.20; the Dow Jones Industrial Average® ($DJI) climbed 742.76 points (1.85%) to 40,954.48; the NASDAQ Composite® ($COMP) added 36.77 points (0.2%) to 18,509.34.
  • The 10-year Treasury note yield (TNX) fell slightly to just under 4.17%.
  • The CBOE Volatility Index® (VIX) ticked up to 13.19, still near three-week highs.

What’s up

  • Match Group climbed 7.46% after activist investor Starboard Value revealed it has taken a 6.6% stake in the matchmaking company.
  • Bank of America rose 5.35% on strong earnings, and management’s expectation that the bank’s net interest income will rise this year.
  • UnitedHealth Group popped 6.49% after beating analyst earnings estimates, missing revenue expectations, and most importantly, avoided higher costs after a recent cyberattack.
  • Shopify surged 8.57% thanks to an analyst upgrade from “neutral” to “buy” on the company’s turnaround efforts. Shares of Etsy rose 6.33% in sympathy.
  • GRAIL boomed 24.76% on the news that it is kicking off the clinical trials of its new cancer detection test.
  • Home builders’ hot streak continues: Hopes of a rate cut are fueling a rally for home builder stocks, with D.R. Horton up 6.64%, Lennar rising 6.55%, KB Home gaining 7.17%, and Builders FirstSource popping 8.11%.

What’s down

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INFLATION: Update FOMC

By Staff Reporters

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Jerome Powell said the Fed won’t wait for 2% inflation to cut rates

The central bank won’t wait to hit its inflation target before bringing interest rates down but wants to have “greater confidence” that inflation will get there in order to make cuts, Powell said at the Economic Club of Washington, DC, in his first public event since June’s cooling inflation numbers came out.

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However, the FOMC chair wasn’t willing to get into specifics about when rate cuts might be coming.

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DAILY UPDATE: PBMs Scrutinized as Companies Report and Stock Markets Rotate

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Though the accountant shortage is still a concern, a shortage of AI and tech skills might be a more pressing issue right now. That’s according to a pulse survey by consulting firm RGP and YouGov, which polled 213 US financial professionals at the director level and above this June.

Read: What do you do when you hit your insurance deductible? Some people throw parties. (the New York Times)

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Here’s where the major benchmarks ended:

  • The S&P 500® index (SPX) rose 15.87 points (0.28%) to 5,631.22; the Dow Jones Industrial Average® ($DJI) climbed 210.82 points (0.53%) to 40,211.72, a new record-high close; the NASDAQ Composite® ($COMP) added 74.12 points (0.4%) to 18,472.57. 
  • The 10-year Treasury note yield (TNX) gained four basis points to just below 4.23%.
  • The CBOE Volatility Index® (VIX) increased to 13.14, its highest close since June 24.

What’s up

  • Bitcoin-related stocks rose alongside the crypto rally today, with Coinbase up 11.39% and Microstrategy climbing 15.36%.
  • Gun manufacturers always rise after a major shooting incident, and the assassination attempt on Donald Trump certainly meets that criteria. Sturm, Ruger & Company jumped 5.44%, and Smith & Wesson rose 11.38%.
  • Stelco Holdings rocketed 73.98% higher on the news that the Canadian steelmaker will be acquired by Cleveland Cliffs for $2.8 billion.
  • AutoNation popped 2.01% on the news that it’s cutting $1.50 off of its EPS for the latest quarter due to the CDK cyberattack. Apparently getting ahead of the bad news is actually good news?

What’s down

  • Macy’s sank 11.76% after the department store’s board voted to end acquisition negotiations with activist investors Arkhouse and Brigade.
  • Burberry fell 16.08% after a poor quarterly report, a profit warning, and the ousting of its CEO.
  • AES plummeted 10.01% thanks to a storm cutting power to thousands of the utility company’s customers throughout Ohio.
  • SolarEdge Technologies dropped 15.36% after the company announced it will lay off 400 employees to improve profitability. Shares of solar competitors slumped in sympathy: First Solar fell 8.50%, Sunrun sank 8.95%, and Sunnova Energy fell 9.96%.

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The Federal Trade Commission (FTC) frequently sets its sights on healthcare, which has previously included efforts to crack down on data privacy and ban noncompetes in contracts. Lately, the agency has turned its attention to pharmacy benefit managers (PBMs)—the groups that negotiate drug prices between insurers and pharmaceutical manufacturers—to shed light on how they impact the healthcare industry.

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Stat: 23.5%. That’s how much Covid-related emergency room visits increased in a week at the beginning of this month. (CDC)

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DAILY UPDATE: Delta Airlines with Stock Market Recap

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Americans are traveling in record numbers this summer, but Delta Air Lines said Thursday that it saw second-quarter profit drop 29% due to higher costs and discounting of base-level fares across the industry. The airline is also predicting a lower profit than Wall Street expects for the third quarter.

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Dramatic photos from the aftermath of the Trump shooting.

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  • Markets: Stocks swung upward finishing the week strong. The Dow closed above 40,000 for the second time ever. And, investors expect the stock market to get a jolt of volatility this week following the assassination attempt on former President Trump, and trades linked to his victory in November (such as a rising US dollar) could see an uptick. For example, Trump has fashioned himself into a pro-crypto candidate, and bitcoin spiked above $62,000 after the shooting.
  • Finance: Big banks kicked off the Q2 earnings season, with JPMorgan, Citigroup, and Wells Fargo reporting. Investment banking revenue was up as deals have started coming back, even as continued high interest rates took a toll on their loan and deposit businesses. Wells Fargo, which relies most on the businesses hit by inflation, saw its profit drop year over year. Investors are wary: All three banks’ stock fell.

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Alphabet is close to acquiring cybersecurity startup Wiz, according to the Wall Street Journal. The $23 billion purchase price would be the largest in the company’s history.

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CREDIT CARDS: Medical Debt?

By Staff Reporters

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What is a medical credit card?

Medical credit cards are typically offered through healthcare providers such as physicians, veterinarians, dentists, and even hospitals. Unlike major credit cards, you can’t use them for cash advances or to purchase items like groceries, gasoline, or airline tickets.

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The cards are only accepted by participating medical providers for certain medical services or procedures. 

READ: https://www.experian.com/blogs/ask-experian/should-you-use-medical-credit-card/

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DAILY UPDATE: Corporate Earnings, Oxendine Guilty as Stock Markets Rotate

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Here’s where the major stock market benchmarks ended:

  • The S&P 500® index (SPX) rose 30.81 points (0.5%) to 5,615.35, up 0.9% for the week; the Dow Jones Industrial Average® ($DJI) rose 247.15 points (0.6%) to 40,000.90, up 1.6% for the week; the NASDAQ Composite® ($COMP) added 115.04 points (0.6%) to 18,398.44, up 0.3% for the week. Both the SPX and $DJI set intraday record highs today.
  • The 10-year Treasury note yield closed basically unchanged just below 4.19%.
  • The CBOE Volatility Index® (VIX) fell slightly to 12.49.

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What’s up

  • Trump Media & Technology Group climbed 3.40% as President Biden’s recent stumbles seem to be breathing new life into the stock.
  • Tesla rose 2.99%, nearly recovering from yesterday’s drop over robotaxi delays, despite a UBS analyst downgrading the company to “sell.”
  • Deckers Outdoor recovered 1.14% when the board announced a 6-for-1 stock split just a few days after M Science analysts warned investors away from the company.
  • Array Technologies popped 8.69% thanks to an upgrade from Citi analysts from “neutral” to “buy” citing the company’s strong long-term prospects. Competitor Enphase Energy jumped 6.85% in sympathy.
  • Carvana soared 4.80% after BTIG analysts initiated coverage of the company with a “buy” rating and a price target 7% higher than where shares trade today.
  • Home builder stocks continued their climb today on higher hopes of rate cuts. D.R. Horton rose 2.68%, Builders FirstSource jumped 3.99%, and even Home Depot got in on the action and rose 1.70%.

What’s down

  • AT&T slid 0.21% after Ma Bell announced that hackers had stolen information about virtually every single one of the cell carrier’s customers. Shares of cybersecurity company Snowflake sank 1.74% on the news as well.
  • Delta Air Lines fell another 3.06% as turbulence throughout the airline industry continued to weigh the stock down.
  • Arbor Realty Trust plummeted 17.03% after the Justice Department announced a probe of the company due to improper lending practices.
  • Vita Coco dropped 9.07% thanks to a downgrade to “neutral” from Piper Sandler analysts. Are you telling me that a company that just sells coconut water isn’t actually worth $1.58 billion? Now that’s just vita loco!

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Here’s a list of some corporate earnings announcements next week:

  • Monday: Goldman Sachs, BlackRock.
  • Tuesday: Bank of America, Morgan Stanley, PNC Financial Services, and Charles Schwab. We’ll also hear from UnitedHealth Group, Progressive, and J.B. Hunt.
  • Wednesday: ASML, Citizens Bank, Ally Financial, Synchrony Financial, and U.S. Bancorp will wrap up the big financial names. Plus Johnson & Johnson, Kinder Morgan, United Airlines, and Alcoa.
  • Thursday: The busiest day of the week includesNetflix, Domino’s Pizza, Abbott Laboratories, Nokia, D.R. Horton, Intuitive Surgical, and much more.
  • Friday: The week wraps up with American Express, Schlumberger, and Halliburton.

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A federal judge on Friday sentenced former Georgia Insurance Commissioner John Oxendine to serve three and a half years in prison after Oxendine pleaded guilty to healthcare fraud. U.S. District Judge Steve Jones, at a hearing in Atlanta, also ordered Oxendine to pay a $25,000 fine and to share in $760,000 in restitution with Dr. Jeffrey Gallups.

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CONSUMER PRICE INDEX: Down Mid-Year 2024

INFLATION EASING

By Staff Reporters

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For the first time since May 2020, the average cost of goods and services in the US made like a remote worker with wanderlust and dipped last month, the Labor Department just reported in July 2024, bolstering confidence that inflation is easing.

Carried by softening gas and rent prices, the consumer price index (CPI) decreased 0.1% in June, beating economists’ forecasts of a 0.1% monthly increase.

  • That dip brought down the annual CPI, which also beat expectations, to record a 3% year over year gain in June—a one-year price growth low and a rate last seen in early 2021.
  • Average gas prices fell 3.8% in June, after dropping 3.6% in May.
  • Shelter prices, which account for about one-third of the CPI, only rose 0.2% in June as rents cooled. It was the category’s smallest monthly rise in three years.

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CONSUMER PRICE INDEX: What is the Elderly CPI?

The CPI-E

[By staff reporters]

We’ve written about the CPI and Chained CPI before on this ME-P.
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Q = So, what is the Elderly CPI?
A = It is experimental CPI for the elderly called the CPI-E.
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According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, or BLS, the CPI-E includes households whose reference person or spouse is 62 years of age or older.
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What is the PRODUCER PRICE INDEX?

By Dr. David E. Marcinko MBA MEd CMP®

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DEFINITION: The PPI is a group of indexes that measure the change, over time, in the prices received by domestic producers of goods and services. It measures price changes from the perspective of the seller rather than the consumer, as with the CPI. The CPI would include imported goods, while the PPI is relevant to U.S. producers, and therefore would not include imports.

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The PPI measures over 10,000 products and services. It reports the price changes prior to the retail level. This information is useful to the government in formulating fiscal and monetary policies. The data gathered from the PPI is often used in escalating purchase and sales contracts. That is the dollar amount to be paid at some time in the future.

NOTE: Long-term managed medical care contracts of the future will seek escalation clauses for increases in prices.

BLS: https://www.bls.gov/pPI/

full report: https://www.bls.gov/news.release/pdf/ppi.pdf

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DAILY UPDATE: Pfizer, MSFT and the NASDAQ Collapse

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As drugs like Wegovy and Zepbound that help people slim down have enlarged its competitors’ bottom lines, Pfizer has struggled to keep up. But now it’s moving forward with the development of a once-daily version.

Here’s where the major benchmarks ended:

  • The S&P 500 index fell 49.37 points (0.8%) to 5,584.54; the Dow Jones Industrial Average® ($DJI) rose 32.39 points (0.1%) to 39,753.75; the NASDAQ Composite® ($COMP) collapsed and lost 364.04 points (1.95%) to 18,283.41 but remains up 22% year to date. The SPX is still up 17% this year.
  • The 10-year Treasury note yield dropped eight basis points to 4.19%.
  • The CBOE Volatility Index® (VIX) climbed to 12.99.

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  • More specifically, the S&P 500 and NASDAQ broke their winning streaks today, closing in the red for the first time in over a week—though both did hit intraday highs at one point. The Dow finished the afternoon in the green, just barely.
  • Gold breached $2,400, and is closing in on a record high of $2,449.89 set back in May.
  • Oil rose on today’s CPI news, with the idea being that if inflation slows and the Fed cuts rates then economic activity will pick up, as will demand for crude.
  • Bond yields sank on CPI data while prices rose.

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According to the Wall Street Journal, Microsoft abandoned its post as an observer on the board after realizing it was bothering antitrust officials who were looking into the relationship between the two companies. Apple, which was expected to take a similar seat on the OpenAI board, will reportedly no longer do s

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DAILY UPDATE: Tesla, PBMs, Medicare Part C and the Hot Stock Markets

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A day before the June CPI report, major indexes extended their rally amid growing demand for semiconductors and rate cut hopes.

  • The S&P 500 rose above 5,600 for the first time ever, only a few short days after breaking above 5,500, with the index hitting a new record for the last seven straight trading sessions. The NASDAQ also enjoyed a solid day as well thanks to strong performances by tech stocks, while even the Dow got in on the action and ended the session in the green.
  • Bond yields stayed almost right where they’ve been all week as investors hold their breath ahead of tomorrow’s key CPI reading.
  • Gold rose as investors hope for a strong CPI report to point the Fed toward more rate cuts, while oil rose as well thanks to a stronger-than-expected outlook on global demand from OPEC.

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The Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services (CMS) announced in June it would recalculate 2024 Medicare Advantage (MA) star ratings for all plans after two court rulings called into question the agency’s method for determining this year’s ratings. The decision is estimated to cost the federal agency roughly $1 billion in additional bonus payments for insurers, according to healthcare analytics firm Cotiviti. The move comes after several large insurers laid off employees in late 2023 after their star ratings decreased.

HIPAA: Some groups are disputing a proposed federal rule that would require hospitals to report cybersecurity incidents, saying they want it to also include insurers and third-party vendors. (Healthcare Dive)

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What’s up

  • Taiwan Semiconductor rose 3.54% after it reported that its June revenue fell 10% month over month, but its sales rose roughly 33% year over year.
  • Advanced Micro Devices popped 3.87% on the news it is acquiring Silo AI, the largest private artificial intelligence lab in Europe, for $665 million.
  • Carvana drove 4.21% higher after Needham analysts upgraded the stock from “hold” to “buy” due in part to new features at checkout highlighting EVs. Competitor CarMax jumped 6.42% in sympathy.
  • Aehr Test Systems rocketed 24.01% after the semiconductor testing equipment maker raised earnings guidance thanks to strong AI demand.
  • Smart Global Holdings rose 26.27% thanks to earnings that beat Wall Street expectations in the third quarter and a strong outlook for the rest of the year.

What’s down

  • LegalZoom plummeted 25.35% to a new all-time low after the company cut its outlook and its CEO stepped down.
  • HubSpot sank 12.24% on a report that Alphabet is no longer interested in acquiring the company.
  • Intuit dropped 2.57% on the news that the tax prep company is cutting 10% of its workforce.
  • Deckers Outdoor fell 4.86% after M Science analysts published a note cautioning that sales for key brands UGG and HOKA fell in June.
  • Ziff Davis fell 10.32% after the digital media company tried to get ahead of the bad news and pre-announced that second-quarter earnings will fall below analyst expectations.
  • Fast-casual restaurant stocks continued to sink today as investors grow more concerned about lower consumer spending and higher valuations. CAVA Group fell 5.47%, Sweetgreen dropped 1.72%, and Dutch Bros fell 4.34%.

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Tesla’s US electric car market share fell below 50% in Q2 for the first time, according to estimates by the research firm Cox Automotive.

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In a scathing report, the Federal Trade Commission accused [PBMs] pharmacy benefit managers—the companies that act as go-betweens for drug makers and consumers—of jacking up drug prices

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DAILY UPDATE: Mike Bloomberg, Arianna Huffington and Andreessen Horowitz as Stock Markets Tread Lightly

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Most medical students at Johns Hopkins University won’t have to pay tuition anymore thanks to a $1 billion gift from Michael Bloomberg.

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Here’s where the major benchmarks ended:

  • The S&P 500 index®(SPX) rose 4.13 points (0.1%) to 5,576.98; the Dow Jones Industrial Average® ($DJI) fell 52.82 points (0.1%) to 39,291.97; the NASDAQ Composite® ($COMP) climbed 25.55 points (0.1%) to 18,429.9.
  • The 10-year Treasury note yield increased two basis points to 4.29%.
  • The CBOE Volatility Index® (VIX) inched up to 12.49, still near recent lows.

What’s up

  • Tesla rose 3.71%, putting the company squarely in the green year to date as investors continue to celebrate the automaker’s strong delivery numbers.
  • Corning rose yet another 3.76%, extending the glassmaker’s gains as it quickly becomes the new hot AI stock du jour.
  • Kymera Therapeutics shot 23.40% higher after its partner Sanofi gave the go-ahead for further studies of its experimental skin disease treatment.
  • Jumia Technologies soared 29.79% after Benchmark analysts initiated coverage of the African e-commerce company with a “buy” rating.
  • Sony rose 4.46% on the news that it has nothing to do with the merger of Paramount and Skydance as shareholders celebrate dodging a Paramount-shaped bullet.

What’s down

  • Albemarle dropped 8.76% after Baird analysts warned that lower lithium demand will translate to lower profits for the miner in its upcoming second quarter.
  • BP sank 4.80% after management warned of lower-than-expected profits and a writedown of its German refining facility to the tune of up to $2 billion.
  • Helios Technologies fell 10.94% on the news that the CEO of the industrial manufacturer had been placed on paid leave for potentially violating the company’s code of ethics.
  • Helen of Troy plummeted 27.73% after the Hydro Flask maker announced terrible earnings and lowered its fiscal year outlook.
  • UiPath fell 6.90% on the announcement that the software company will cut 10% of its workforce.

CITE: https://tinyurl.com/2h47urt5

OpenAI’s venture fund and Arianna Huffington’s Thrive Global are jointly funding a new startup that aims to build an AI health coach to promote healthier lifestyles.


Function Health, a health tech company focused on preventive medicine, recently closed a series A round led by Andreessen Horowitz (a16z) Bio + Health along with a slew of celebrity investors.


And … made possible by the American Rescue Plan, the Biden administration is putting $27.5 million toward women’s behavioral health.

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Selecting Money Managers?

TRUST BUT VERIFY – CAVEAT EMPTOR

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By Clifton McIntire; CIMA, CFP® and Lisa McIntire; CIMA, CFP® 

Most physicians and healthcare executives do not manage their own portfolios, or those of their office or medical foundations. Most are more comfortable using outside money managers to make their investment decisions. Just as the general public does not have the facilities, equipment, staff, or training to make medical decisions, physicians generally do not have the time, education, infrastructure or temperament, to make their own investment decisions.

The Style Search 

The search for the right manager(s) begins with creating a “want” list. What kind of a manager do you want? Let’s say you want to find a large cap growth manager. That narrows the field considerably from the start. You are looking for a manger that does research in and understands the field of large growth companies like Microsoft, Walmart, Pfizer, Google, and AOL-Time Warner.   Jim Cowperthwait, Managing Partner of NewBridge Partners, LLC in New York City, is a “growth” manager.  Cowperthwait sums up this philosophy with the statement, “Earnings growth drives stock prices over the long-term. Therefore, we invest our clients’ money in companies whose earnings are expected to grow at 20 percent per year.  Over the long term, this should result in portfolio growth of 15 percent per year.” The other main investment “style” is “value.” 

Value managers buy stocks at a discount to some perceived value.  Generally these stocks pay above market dividend yield, are selling below market price/earnings ratios, and have a low price to cash flow ratio.  Examples of value stocks would be Exxon, Philip Morris, Dupont, and Texas Utilities.  Jim Landau of Berkeley Capital Management in San Francisco, California is a value manager. Landau says, “We look for quality companies with a consistent record of dividend increases and a stock price that is undervalued.” Other styles include the following:

  • Contrarian—invest in stocks that are out of favor or have little market interest
  • Small Cap Growth—small growing companies with high capital appreciation potential
  • Small Cap Value—companies that sell at a discount to some perceived value
  • Market timers
  • Asset Allocators
  • Sector Rotators

Fixed Income Managers 

Managers in the field of fixed income also have a variety of styles. Some are managers of municipal bond portfolios such as John Mousseau of Cumberland Advisors of Vineland, New Jersey.  George Shaffrey of Morgan Keegan & Company of Memphis, Tennessee manages a portfolio of high yielding (average rating “B”) corporate bonds.  Madison Investment Advisors of Madison, Wisconsin offers management of U.S. Government Bonds.  To limit the field even more let us establish some minimum requirements.  To begin with, the performance numbers must be in conformance with AIMR (Association for Investment Management and Research); now CFA Institute, standards.  After that, limit your search to firms with the following characteristics: 

  • Assets under management of at least $1 billion
  • Organization with at least four principals
  • Some independent research
  • Length of time in business  (at least 2 market cycles)
  • Consistent return performance
  • Control of risk well defined
  • Minimum account size within our reach

Software programs are available to screen the world of investment management and come up with a list of potential candidates. CheckFree Investment Services of Research Triangle Park, North Carolina has one of the best. Many others are available. Whether the Bank Trust Department, Private Money Manager or Personal Investment Consultant is being interviewed, here are a few of the questions that should be asked: 

  • Can I get a sample of that report?
  • What kind of performance measurement reporting do I get from you?
  • What due diligence work is done by your organization?
  • What investment/portfolio choices do I have?
  • Who is/are the portfolio manager(s)?
  • How experienced is the portfolio manager?
  • How is he/she compensated?
  • Are you showing me audited performance?
  • How has the performance been? (1, 3, 5 and 7 years)
  • Whose performance is it?  The same portfolio manager as five years ago?
  • Have other key personnel changes been made?
  • Will my account be a separate or commingled account?
  • What are the total costs?  Does that include the following:  ü       [Custody of assets?   Management fee?  Trustee fees?  Transaction fees?  Transaction costs?  Distribution fees?  Termination fees?, etc] 
  • Can I get the costs in writing with a statement that there are no additional costs?

stock-exchange

Decision Matrix 

Now decide what’s important to you in a money-manger and weight each matrix or category. Here are four useful qualities to assess each potential money-manager on the same criteria to be as objective as possible.  These areas are organization, philosophy, performance and fit with your overall plan.  Decide how much weight to assign each of these areas and then rank each manager on a scale of 1 (lowest) to 4 (highest) for each manager. 

1. Performance: 

Like some medical P4P initiatives, after installing your manager(s) you must monitor the performance to assure strict and complete conformance with your investment policy statement. You need to compare your returns with standard indexes, your return objectives, consumer price index, and Treasury Bills. It is also important to compare your results with other investment managers with similar investment style. Let’s not forget the very important capital market line analysis, which depicts the risk we experienced for the return we received; or manager expenses and portfolio size.                   

2. Capital Market Line Analysis:

Quarterly in depth analysis of the portfolio is a must. Most institutions require a formal presentation from the consultant quarterly. Your money is certainly as important to you as the fiduciary responsibility is to them. Some consultants let the report always reflect the account from the beginning. The theory is that the more data that we put in, the more accurate the statistics become, but this begins to distort the performance after the fifth year, and data going back to 1940 is not relative to current market environments. Many reports exclude numbers more than five to seven years old. 

3. Expenses:

Expenses can play an important role in performance. You don’t hear much about expense ratios in an up market. If your account was up +28 percent, whether the expense was 3 percent or 1 percent doesn’t seem to make much difference.  But let the market decline and the portfolio with it for a year and we change our perspective. A 10 percent portfolio decline plus charges of 3 percent equals a 13 percent decline.  Now we need a 15 percent increase net of fees just to get even.  Basically you have four cost areas: 

  • Custody—someone must hold the stocks and bonds, collect dividends and interest, prepare tax information for the government, issue monthly statements, and send checks.
  • Commissions—orders must be executed, transfer securities into and out of your account, trades settled.
  • Investment Decisions—the money manager must be paid.
  • Monitoring Performance and Advice—usually an investment management analyst is engaged to provide this service as well as write the investment policy statement and prepare the asset allocation study.

4. Size:

Naturally, size makes a difference. For a stock account with a $200,000 total value, all of the above can be accomplished for annual fees between 2.00 and 3.00 percent.  An account with $1,500,000 in total assets part bonds and part stocks would pay annual fees between 1.25 and 1.75 percent depending on the ratio of stocks and bonds.  These are annual fees and are all-inclusive. Commissions, portfolio management fees, and statements check charges are all included.  One quarter of the annual fee is charged every three months.  Family related accounts are generally grouped for a quantity fee discount. Most all fee structures are negotiable. Some consultants prefer to use mutual funds with smaller accounts.  A charge of 1 percent per year for their service with a stated minimal fee is common practice. This does not include fees deducted from the account by the mutual fund (anywhere from .50 to 2.50 percent) or commissions paid by the fund managers for trade executions.   

Assessment 

Remember, when considering money management, be sure to understand the ultimate fiscal consequences and your own personal liability? Always be sure to use a fiduciary consultant and let the competition for your business begin. 

Conclusion

Your thoughts and comments on this ME-P are appreciated. Feel free to review our top-left column, and top-right sidebar materials, links, URLs and related websites, too. Then, subscribe to the ME-P. It is fast, free and secure.

Speaker: If you need a moderator or speaker for an upcoming event, Dr. David E. Marcinko; MBA – Publisher-in-Chief of the Medical Executive-Post – is available for seminar or speaking engagements. Contact: MarcinkoAdvisors@msn.com

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