Rethinking Productivity in Wealth Management

By Vitaliy Katsenelsen CFA

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One of the biggest hazards of being a professional money manager is that you are expected to behave in a certain way.

One of the biggest hazards of being a professional money manager is that you are expected to behave in a certain way: You have to come to the office every day, work long hours, slog through countless emails, be on top of your portfolio (that is, check performance of your securities minute by minute), watch business TV and consume news continuously, and dress well and conservatively, wearing a rope around the only part of your body that lets air get to your brain. Our colleagues judge us on how early we arrive at work and how late we stay. We do these things because society expects us to, not because they make us better investors or do any good for our clients.

Somehow we let the mindless, Henry Ford–assembly-line, 8:00 a.m. to 5:00 p.m., widgets-per-hour mentality dictate how we conduct our business thinking. Though car production benefits from rigid rules, uniforms, automation and strict working hours, in investing — the business of thinking — the assembly-line culture is counterproductive. Our clients and employers would be better off if we designed our workdays to let us perform our best.

Investing is not an idea-­per-hour profession; it more likely results in a few ideas per year. A traditional, structured working environment creates pressure to produce an output — an idea, even a forced idea. Warren Buffett once said at a Berkshire Hathaway annual meeting: “We don’t get paid for activity; we get paid for being right. As to how long we’ll wait, we’ll wait indefinitely.”

How you get ideas is up to you. I am not a professional writer, but as a professional money manager, I learn and think best through writing. I put on my headphones, turn on opera and stare at my computer screen for hours, pecking away at the keyboard — that is how I think. You may do better by walking in the park or sitting with your legs up on the desk, staring at the ceiling.

I do my best thinking in the morning. At 3:00 in the afternoon, my brain shuts off; that is when I read my emails. We are all different. My best friend is a brunch person; he needs to consume six cups of coffee in the morning just to get his brain going. To be most productive, he shouldn’t go to work before 11:00 a.m.

And then there’s the business news. Serious business news that lacked sensationalism, and thus ratings, has been replaced by a new genre: business entertainment (of course, investors did not get the memo). These shows do a terrific job of filling our need to have explanations for everything, even random events that require no explanation (like daily stock movements). Most information on the business entertainment channels — Bloomberg Television, CNBC, Fox Business — has as much value for investors as daily weather forecasts have for travelers who don’t intend to go anywhere for a year.

Yet many managers have CNBC, Fox or Bloomberg TV/Internet streaming on while they work.

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INTEL: The USA and Softbank’s Acquistion?

By A.I. and Staff Reporters

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US government mulls 10% stake in Intel as Softbank invests $2b.

According to Morning Brew, Bloomberg and the Wall Street Journal reported recently that the government is considering becoming one of the beleaguered chipmaker’s biggest shareholders by converting grants the company was given under the Biden-era Chips Act into an equity stake.

At Intel’s current valuation, a 10% stake would be worth ~$10.5 billion—though the exact size of the stake and whether the government will move forward with the plan remains to be determined.

Meanwhile, over in the private sector, Softbank agreed to buy $2 billion worth of Intel stock, giving it a ~2% stake. Intel has been trying to turn itself around after losing ground to other semiconductor companies

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INVESTMENTS: Four Firm Updates

By A.I.

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UnitedHealth Group soared almost 12%, its biggest one-day gain in nearly five years, after getting the “Buffett Bounce.” Buffett’s Berkshire Hathaway revealed it bought ~5 million shares worth nearly $1.6 billion, giving a much-needed vote of confidence to the struggling health giant.

The White House is considering buying part of Intel, Bloomberg reported this week, which would be the latest big business deal the president pursues on behalf of the government. The Trump administration might acquire a stake in the struggling computer chip-maker using CHIPS Act funding—nearly $11 billion of which was already earmarked for Intel.

Saudi Arabia’s Public Investment Fund took an $8 billion write-down on five mega-projects it’s building, due to lower oil prices and higher costs.

Pimco, the asset management giant, warned that President Trump’s plan to IPO Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac could push mortgage rates higher.

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DAILY UPDATE: Stocks, Commodities and Trade as Stock Markets End Mixed

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  • Stocks: Investors cheered the news of an EU & US trade deal over the weekend, pushing the S&P 500 above 6,400 for the first time ever. But the index gave up most of its gains late in the day as attention turned to a huge week of data ahead (more on that in a minute).
  • Trade: Today was the first day of discussions between US and Chinese negotiators in Stockholm to keep the trade war truce alive. Elsewhere, President Trump foresees a baseline 15% to 20% tariff rate for the rest of the world.
  • Commodities: Gold fell as trade deal hopes heightened investors’ risk appetite, while oil spiked higher after Trump gave Russia a 10- to 12-day deadline to sign a truce with Ukraine.

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According to Bloomberg, 83% of the S&P 500 companies that have reported earnings have outpaced Wall Street’s estimates, putting the index on pace for its best season of beats since the second quarter of 2021.

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Goldman Sachs and Bitcoin

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By A.I.

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Bitcoin notched another all-time record yesterday, beating the previous record that was set two days ago.

Goldman Sachs plans to ask junior bankers to certify their loyalty every three months in order to prevent poaching by private equity firms, Bloomberg reported.

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Deals, Stocks and the FOMC

By A.I.

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  • Deals: Stocks popped at the open yesterday on the news that Canada has rescinded the digital services tax in order to lure the US back to the negotiating table. Meanwhile, Bloomberg reported that the EU will accept a 10% universal tariff in exchange for some key concessions.
  • Stocks: The S&P 500 and the NASDAQ both hit new record highs today, with the S&P 500 wrapping up its best quarter since Q4 20
  • The Fed: President Trump published a handwritten note asking Jerome Powell to cut interest rates, even as the White House considers new ways to replace the Fed Chair. Meanwhile, Goldman Sachs now sees the chances of the Fed cutting interest rates in September as “somewhat above 50%.”

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SOVEREIGN WEALTH FUND: Defined

By Staff Reporters

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A SWF is essentially an investment fund run by the government. Similar to how a hedge fund or a private equity firm operates, the government would set aside a pot of money and invest it in assets such as stocks, bonds, startups, or real estate.

The idea of the US establishing a sovereign wealth fund akin to Norway’s or Abu Dhabi’s gained momentum recently across the political spectrum. Former President Trump endorsed the concept during a speech on his economic policy agenda for a second term, and the Biden administration has been quietly cheffing up a proposal for a wealth fund over the past several months, Bloomberg reported.

Trump and Biden officials described the fund as a key tool the country could deploy to win the global technological arms race and better compete against geopolitical rivals like China.

For example, the wealth fund could finance capital-intensive sectors such as shipbuilding, nuclear fission, and quantum cryptography that don’t offer near-term ROI for private investors.

However, disadvantages of a SWF include:

  • Non-Guaranteed Returns, with the Risk of Total Loss
  • Influence on Foreign Exchange Rates, Introducing Uncertainty
  • Potential Mismanagement of Funds Due to a Lack of Transparency
  • Dependency on Global Economic Conditions, Impacting Fund Performance
  • Challenges in Maintaining Accountability and Addressing Ethical Concerns

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MARKETS: Volatility Expected?

BREAKING NEWS!

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Markets: Brace for +/- volatility as US markets reopen this morning, with the escalating Israel–Iran conflict dominating investors’ Bloomberg Terminals.

Stocks fell the most in nearly a month on Friday, and the prospect of an oil supply shock sent crude prices 7% higher, their biggest one-day gain in years. Through it all, the S&P 500 is less than 3% from its record high.

Combined, both the DOW and NASDAQ are up over 750 points, today!

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MAY: Jobs Report

BREAKING NEWS!

Generated By AI

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Markets: Stocks fell yesterday as investors readied themselves for today’s jobs report. The May jobs report is expected to show hiring slowed while the unemployment rate held flat. The data release will come as investors closely watch for any further signs of slowing in the US labor market.

CPI: https://medicalexecutivepost.com/2024/07/13/what-is-the-elderly-cpi/

The Bureau of Labor Statistics data is slated for release at 8:30 a.m. ET, today. Economists expect non-farm payroll to have risen by 125,000 in May and the unemployment rate to have held steady at 4.2%, according to consensus estimates compiled by Bloomberg.

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TRUMP: Brings Down Prescription Drug Costs

By Staff Reporters and ChatGPT

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President Trump to bring down prescription costs

In a Sunday post to Truth Social, President Trump signed an executive order at 9 am today to institute a most-favored-nation policy with pharmaceutical companies that he predicted could lower drug prices by 30% to 80%.

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“The United States will pay the same price as the Nation that pays the lowest price anywhere in the World,

While Americans pay more for pharmaceuticals than any other country, Bloomberg reported that the American market fuels innovation and drives growth in the industry. Drug makers have pushed back on previous efforts to revamp the system in the US, saying it would make revenue evaporate and hinder the development of potentially lifesaving drugs.

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DAILY UPDATE: OpenAI, FDA, Roche & Rite Aid as Stocks Soar

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  • OpenAI would be open to buying Chrome if Google is forced by a federal court to sell the web browser, the company’s ChatGPT head said yesterday.
  • The FDA suspended milk quality tests in some dairy products due to reduced capacity stemming from federal workforce cuts, Reuters reported.
  • Roche, the Swiss pharmaceutical giant, is investing $50 billion in US manufacturing to circumvent President Trump’s tariffs, the company said yesterday.
  • Rite Aid is preparing to sell itself in pieces ahead of a possible second bankruptcy, Bloomberg reported.

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What’s up

  • Intel surged 5.54% on reports that the chipmaker plans to cut 20% of its workforce.
  • Oklo gained 8.60% after OpenAI CEO Sam Altman announced he’s stepping down as chairman of the board of the nuclear power startup.
  • Duolingo popped 10.01% after Morgan Stanley initiated coverage of the language learning company, calling it a “best-in-class consumer internet asset.”
  • Cava climbed 6.29% due to an upgrade from analysts at Bernstein, who think the bowl slop stock will not only survive but thrive in an economic downturn.
  • Amphenol rose 8.21% thanks to impressive earnings for the high-speed cable company, coupled with a solid fiscal outlook.
  • Vertiv Holdings jumped 8.60% after the data center company posted an impressive quarterly profit and raised its fiscal forecast.
  • SAP rose 7.47% following the software stock’s strong profit performance last quarter.
  • Novavax soared 19.52% on the news that the FDA has asked for more clinical data about its Covid vaccine.

What’s down

  • Enphase Energy plunged 15.65% thanks to a big miss on both the top and bottom lines for the solar tech stock.
  • Going down: Elevator manufacturer Otis Worldwide fell 6.64% on an earnings miss thanks to fewer orders from Chinese customers.
  • Online learning platform Chubb fell 2.17% after announcing a 38% decline in net income last quarter.
  • Baker Hughes may have beaten profit forecasts last quarter, but the oilfield operator’s revenue miss sent shares tumbling 6.44%.
  • Bristol Myers Squibb lost 2.59% after the pharma giant announced its schizophrenia drug Cobenfy performed poorly in Phase 3 trials.

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  • Stocks surged first thing this morning after President Trump said the media blew things out of proportion and that he has “no intention” of firing Jerome Powell. He also said he would be “very nice” to China in tariff negotiations.
  • Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent also did some damage control, touting the opportunity for a “big deal” between the US and China.
  • The combination sent a relief rally sweeping through markets, and while the euphoria faded by mid-afternoon, all three indexes ended the day in the green.
  • Gold fell and bitcoin rose as investors took on more risk (see below), while oil dropped on reports that OPEC+ may hike its crude output after its meeting next month.

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STOCK MARKET: Panic Buying Apple A18 Processor iPhones

By Staff Reporters

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Just after midnight, President Trump’s “reciprocal” tariffs went into effect against 86 countries. Analysts have estimated that the new US average effective tariff rate is north of 20%, the highest in more than 100 years. Ahead of the tariff deadline, markets swung violently, mostly way down: According to Bloomberg’s Cameron Crise, yesterday was the fourth straight trading day when the S&P 500’s trading range was 5% or more. That’s only happened in 1987, 2008, and 2020.

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The Apple A18 and Apple A18 Pro are a pair of 64-bit ARM-based system on a chip (SoC) designed by Apple Inc., part of the Apple silicon series. They are used in the iPhone 16 and iPhone 16 Pro lineups and the iPhone 16e, and built on a second generation 3 nm process by TSMC.

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Yesterday, for several hours on Tuesday, it looked like stocks were going to regain some of the ground lost during the market’s very bad week. But after the Trump administration made it clear that its increased tariffs on China would go into effect, all three indexes plunged. Apple, which makes most of its iPhones in China, was hit harder than many of its Big Tech peers.

So shoppers are thinking it’s better to have an Apple A18 processor and not need it, than to need it and not have it. Apple customers are scrambling to buy new iPhones out of fear that the company could raise prices to offset President Trump’s tariffs.

Employees at locations throughout the US said they’re being bombarded with questions about potential price hikes and have witnessed customers panic-buying phones. Though Apple declined to comment to Bloomberg, its retail stores reportedly saw higher sales over the last weekend than in previous years.

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DAILY UPDATE: JPMorgan Chase Lawsuit as DJIA Gains 350 Points and Stocks Climb for 2nd Day After S&P 500 Enters Correction Territory

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A group of current and former employees of JPMorgan Chase (NYSE:JPM) has filed a lawsuit alleging that the company, through its prescription drug plan run by CVS Health (NYSE:CVS), overpaid for medicines, resulting in higher expenses for its workers, according to Bloomberg News.

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The S&P 500 (^GSPC) gained about 0.6% to rebound for a second day in row, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average (^DJI) gained more than 350 points, or more than 0.8%. The tech-heavy NASDAQ Composite (^IXIC) rose 0.3% as “Magnificent 7” stocks, including Nvidia (NVDA) and Tesla (TSLA), faltered.

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DAILY UPDATE: Walgreens Boots Private Equity, Medical Cost Debt as Stock Markets Stabilize

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Walgreens Boots Alliance says it has agreed to be acquired by private equity firm Sycamore Partners as the struggling retailer looks to turn itself around after years of losing money. Walgreens said Thursday that Sycamore will pay $11.45 per share, giving the deal an equity value just under $10 billion. Shareholders could eventually receive up to an

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Stocks

  • The S&P 500 rose 0.6%
  • The NASDAQ 100 rose 0.7%
  • The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 0.5%
  • The MSCI World Index rose 0.2%
  • Bloomberg Magnificent 7 Total Return Index rose 0.2%
  • The Russell 2000 Index rose 0.4%

Currencies

  • The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index fell 0.2%
  • The euro rose 0.6% to $1.0851
  • The British pound rose 0.4% to $1.2929
  • The Japanese yen was little changed at 147.89 per dollar

Cryptocurrencies

  • Bitcoin fell 4% to $86,226.2
  • Ether fell 3.8% to $2,129.51

Bonds

  • The yield on 10-year Treasuries advanced two basis points to 4.30%
  • Germany’s 10-year yield was little changed at 2.84%
  • Britain’s 10-year yield declined two basis points to 4.64%

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Stat: 20%. That’s how many US residents under age 49 have borrowed money to cover medical costs. (West Health and Gallup)

Visualize: How private equity tangled banks in a web of debt, from the Financial Times.

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DAILY UPDATE: Inflation Leaps as Wall Street Worries

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Consumer prices overall increased 3% from a year earlier, up from 2.9% the previous month, according to the Labor Department’s consumer price index, a measure of goods and service costs across the U.S. That’s the most since June and above the 2.9% expected by economists surveyed by Bloomberg.

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Most U.S. stocks fell Wednesday after a report showed inflation is unexpectedly worsening for Americans.

The S&P 500 dropped 0.3%, though it had been on track for a much worse loss of 1.1% at the start of trading. The Dow Jones Industrial Average sank 225 points, or 0.5%, while the NASDAQ composite edged higher by less than 0.1%

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BLOOMBERG: U.S. Universal Index

By Staff Reporters

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The Bloomberg U.S. Universal Index represents the union of the U.S. Aggregate Index, U.S. Corporate High Yield Index, Investment Grade 144A Index, Eurodollar Index, U.S. Emerging Markets Index, and the non-ERISA eligible portion of the CMBS Index.

The index covers USD-denominated, taxable bonds that are rated either investment grade or high-yield. Some Bloomberg U.S. Universal Index constituents may be eligible for one or more of its contributing sub-components that are not mutually exclusive. These securities are not double-counted in the index.

The Bloomberg U.S. Universal Index was created on January 1st, 1999, with index history back-filled to January 1st, 1990.

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DAILY UPDATE: The Stock Markets and Meta

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  • Markets: It’s been a September to remember for the stock market after the S&P 500 and Dow Jones hit fresh highs last week. Thursday was the 42nd record-high close for the S&P 500 this year, and on Friday, the Dow notched its 32nd record-high close, per CNN Business. Recent data indicates that all the ingredients are coming together for a “soft landing”: The economy is staying strong while inflation has continued to fall. And more rate cuts are on their way.

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Stock spotlight: Meta’s rally this year has been fruitful for its CEO’s bank account. The net worth of Mark Zuckerberg, who owns a 13% stake in his company, climbed above $200 billion for the first time, per Bloomberg. He’s now the fourth-richest person in the world.

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DAILY UPDATE: Visa, Coca-Cola, Cardinal & Advocate Health and Obesity as Markets Fall

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Cardinal Health has agreed in principle to acquire Integrated Oncology Network for more than $1.1 billion.


And … Advocate Health announced it will wipe clean more than 11,500 judgment liens on patients’ homes and real estate.

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What’s up

  • Flutter Entertainment, parent company of betting app FanDuel, popped 5.06% after it revealed its impressive growth plans.
  • Hewlett Packard Enterprise rose 5.05% thanks to an upgrade from Barclays analysts who think that rising AI demand will increase the company’s server revenue.
  • Trump Media & Technology Group gained 10.48% after shareholders panicked that the end of its lockup period would mean big selling by insiders, fears that haven’t materialized.
  • Progress Software climbed 11.85% after a strong beat-and-raise earnings report.

What’s down

  • Southwest Airlines stumbled 4.57% after announcing it will cut service to and from Atlanta, a major hub for air travel, as it looks to save money ahead of a showdown with activist investor Elliott Investment Management.
  • Bank of America fell just 0.51% on the revelation that Warren Buffett can’t stop selling the stock.
  • KB Home sank 5.35% after the homebuilder beat revenue estimates but missed on earnings. It also issued a downbeat forecast for the rest of its fiscal year.
  • Global Payments dropped 6.37% thanks to a downgrade from BTIG analysts who were unimpressed by the payment provider’s near-term growth plans.

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  • The S&P 500® index (SPX) fell 10.68 points (–0.19%) to 5,722.25; the Dow Jones Industrial Average® ($DJI) dropped 293.47 points (–0.70%) to 41,914.75; the NASDAQ Composite® ($COMP) added 7.68 points (0.04%) to 18,082.21.
  • The 10-year Treasury note yield (TNX) climbed five basis points to 3.78% and seems stuck in a range between 3.7% and 3.8%.
  • The CBOE Volatility Index® (VIX) rose slightly to 15.51, still near its September lows.

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Coca-Cola pulled its new flavor, Spiced, from shelves after just six months because of dis-interest in it.

Visa was sued by the Justice Department for antitrust violations. The DOJ alleged in a complaint filed in Manhattan federal court that the payments giant is illegally monopolizing the debit card market by penalizing merchants who try to use alternatives, Bloomberg reported.

For the first time in more than a decade, the nationwide number of people with obesity hasn’t gone up, according to new CDC data showing that the condition appears in about 40% of US adults.

Visualize: How private equity tangled banks in a web of debt, from the Financial Times.

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DAILY UPDATE: Nvidia DOJ and Nippon Steel as Stocks Sill Slide

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A bad day for Nvidia got even worse on Tuesday when Bloomberg reported that the Department of Justice subpoenaed the chipmaker as part of its investigation into whether the world’s hottest company unfairly wields its industry dominance. Yesterday, Nvidia denied it was technically subpoenaed. Bloomberg followed up to say that Nvidia was merely splitting hairs about the type of request it received from the DOJ but that it was in fact asked to answer questions about its empire.

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What’s up

What’s down
  • C3.ai, which sounds like the name of a new Star Wars droid, sank 8.21% after the enterprise software company announced that subscription revenue fell short of expectations last quarter.
  • Hewlett Packard Enterprise staggered 6.02% after posting record AI revenue but paying the price for it.
  • Copart dropped 6.67% once the online car auctioneer reported solid revenue growth but missed earnings expectations last quarter.
  • ChargePoint plummeted 17.75% thanks to an absolutely terrible quarter for the EV charging network company.
  • Toro Company, makers of your dad’s favorite lawnmower, fell 10.09%. Sales to residential customers rose last quarter, but sales to professionals, who buy more expensive equipment, fell.

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Here’s where the major benchmarks ended:

  • The SPX fell 16.66 points (–0.30%) to 5,503.41; the Dow Jones Industrial Average® ($DJI) dropped 219.22 points (–0.54%) to 40,755.75; the NASDAQ Composite® ($COMP) added 43.36 points (0.25%) to 17,127.66.
  • The 10-year Treasury note yield (TNX)slid to 3.73%, its lowest close since August 5 following today’s jobs-related data. 
  • The CBOE Volatility Index® (VIX)fell to just above 20, near its historic average.

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The president is gearing up to block Japan’s Nippon Steel from acquiring US Steel, according to the Washington Post—a move that could end the highly politicized deal.

Visualize: How private equity tangled banks in a web of debt, from the Financial Times.

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DAILY UPDATE: Crowdstrike Price, Banks and Healthcare

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CrowdStrike saw its share price plummet Friday, although it is still up ~24% YTD. At $74.2 billion, CrowdStrike has the second-largest market cap in the IT security industry, behind only Palo Alto Networks ($107.1 billion), and reported $900 million in revenue for the quarter ending in April, per Reuters. It’s got ~29,000 customers, which is part of why the outage caused so much havoc.

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Crowdstrike Banks: Some traders at JPMorgan Chase, UBS, Bloomberg, and other financial institutions couldn’t execute orders yesterday morning, with one unnamed senior trader telling the Financial Times that it was “the biggest upset in years.”

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Crowdstrike Healthcare: Many hospitals—including some of the largest in Europe and the US—were forced to cancel all elective operations, routine appointments, and walk-ins, and online portals for most UK general practitioners went down.

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DAILY UPDATE: Mike Bloomberg, Arianna Huffington and Andreessen Horowitz as Stock Markets Tread Lightly

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Most medical students at Johns Hopkins University won’t have to pay tuition anymore thanks to a $1 billion gift from Michael Bloomberg.

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Here’s where the major benchmarks ended:

  • The S&P 500 index®(SPX) rose 4.13 points (0.1%) to 5,576.98; the Dow Jones Industrial Average® ($DJI) fell 52.82 points (0.1%) to 39,291.97; the NASDAQ Composite® ($COMP) climbed 25.55 points (0.1%) to 18,429.9.
  • The 10-year Treasury note yield increased two basis points to 4.29%.
  • The CBOE Volatility Index® (VIX) inched up to 12.49, still near recent lows.

What’s up

  • Tesla rose 3.71%, putting the company squarely in the green year to date as investors continue to celebrate the automaker’s strong delivery numbers.
  • Corning rose yet another 3.76%, extending the glassmaker’s gains as it quickly becomes the new hot AI stock du jour.
  • Kymera Therapeutics shot 23.40% higher after its partner Sanofi gave the go-ahead for further studies of its experimental skin disease treatment.
  • Jumia Technologies soared 29.79% after Benchmark analysts initiated coverage of the African e-commerce company with a “buy” rating.
  • Sony rose 4.46% on the news that it has nothing to do with the merger of Paramount and Skydance as shareholders celebrate dodging a Paramount-shaped bullet.

What’s down

  • Albemarle dropped 8.76% after Baird analysts warned that lower lithium demand will translate to lower profits for the miner in its upcoming second quarter.
  • BP sank 4.80% after management warned of lower-than-expected profits and a writedown of its German refining facility to the tune of up to $2 billion.
  • Helios Technologies fell 10.94% on the news that the CEO of the industrial manufacturer had been placed on paid leave for potentially violating the company’s code of ethics.
  • Helen of Troy plummeted 27.73% after the Hydro Flask maker announced terrible earnings and lowered its fiscal year outlook.
  • UiPath fell 6.90% on the announcement that the software company will cut 10% of its workforce.

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OpenAI’s venture fund and Arianna Huffington’s Thrive Global are jointly funding a new startup that aims to build an AI health coach to promote healthier lifestyles.


Function Health, a health tech company focused on preventive medicine, recently closed a series A round led by Andreessen Horowitz (a16z) Bio + Health along with a slew of celebrity investors.


And … made possible by the American Rescue Plan, the Biden administration is putting $27.5 million toward women’s behavioral health.

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DAILY UPDATE: Moderna Down with Mixed Markets

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Here’s where the major benchmarks ended:

  • The S&P 500® index (SPX) fell 1.26 points (0.02%) to 5,221.42; the Dow Jones Industrial Average lost 81.33 points (0.2%) to 39,431.51; the NASDAQ Composite® ($COMP) gained 47.37 points (0.3%) to 16,388.24.
  • The 10-year Treasury note yield (TNX) dropped almost 2 basis points to 4.487%.
  • The CBOE Volatility Index® (VIX) surged 1.05 to 13.60.

Biotechnology and food and beverage shares were among the market’s strongest sectors Monday, while communication services stocks were among the biggest laggards. Energy shares took pressure despite a jump of 1.2% in WTI Crude Oil (/CL) futures, which ended above $79 per barrel after slumping last week to two-month lows.

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Moderna is “bleeding money” as its forthcoming RSV vaccine doesn’t appear to deliver better results than other RSV shots already on the market. (Bloomberg)

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It’s ChatGPT-4o’s time to shine. The “o” stands for omni, and it’s the latest iteration of OpenAI’s signature chatbot. According to the company, it’s much faster with enhanced “capabilities across text, vision, and audio.”

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23% is the average portion of the bill hospitals collected from patients before treatment in Q1 of this year, up 3% YoY. (the Wall Street Journal)

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DAILY UPDATE: 24/7 NYSE Trading with Last Week’s Market Round-Up

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Last week stocks shrugged off the news that the Fed’s favorite inflation gauge ticked up last month as strong earnings reports from Big Tech pushed them higher giving the NASDAQ and the S&P 500 their best weeks since November. Google parent Alphabet had its best day since July 2015 after showing that some of its Artificial Intelligence investments are paying off for its first-ever dividend distribution.

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The New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) recently asked market participants to share how they’d feel about trading 24/7.

According to Morning Brew, The tradition-shattering proposal by the world’s busiest stock exchange, which operates from 9:30am to 4pm ET Monday–Friday, would make stocks no different from other assets that never stop trading, like crypto and government bonds.

The NYSE’s curiosity comes as the startup 24 Exchange, backed by Mets owner Steve Cohen, is seeking SEC permission to launch a round-the-clock stock exchange. 24 Exchange wants to cater to the growing contingent of amateur investors, some of whom prefer to trade after their kids go to bed. If the NYSE decides to become an exchange that never sleeps, it’d likely upend the day-to-day of the pros on Wall Street. So, let’s consider what 24/7 trading would look like, who’d be in the green, and who’s kept up at night by the prospect. For example:

The NYSE currently allows people to trade stocks outside regular hours from 4am until the market opens and after the closing bell until 8pm, but there are fewer participants trading, and those transactions often come with higher fees. Meanwhile, brokerages like Robinhood and Interactive Brokers have found success in letting investors put in orders for many stocks and stock indexes overnight.

  • Robinhood recently said its overnight trading options are a hit, with trading outside of the NYSE’s regular hours accounting for as much as 25% of activity on the platform.
  • Many customers aren’t used to waiting around for the NYSE to “ding a bell two times a day,” Robinhood’s Chief Brokerage Officer Steve Quirk told Bloomberg.

Many of these nocturnal transactions on brokerage apps happen because of the time difference with the Asia Pacific region, where investors are increasingly eager to tap into the US stock market when most Americans are asleep. The trades are enabled by organizations like Blue Ocean, which are seeing skyrocketing demand for cross-border services. Having the NYSE run 24/7 would make it easier for investors in different time zones to participate in the US stock market.

Proponents also say it could make morning trading less volatile by allowing investors to react to big news (like an Elon Musk tweet about Tesla) as soon as it happens rather than waiting for markets to open.

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Meanwhile, stocks popped off last week thanks to Big Tech’s impressive earnings, with the S&P 500 and NASDAQ posting their best weeks since November. Nvidia notched its best weekly gain in almost a year (up 15%), adding nearly $290 billion in market capitalization.

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DAILY UPDATE: Mike Burry MD, Private Equity in Health Systems, Drug Shortages, United Health Stock Sale and the Change Healthcare Hack as the Stock Markets Re-Collapse!

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  • Medical colleague and our financial planning for physicians textbook contributor Michael Burry MD predicted a second inflation surge, and price growth re-accelerated in March,. 2024.
  • The “Big Short” investor first warned of inflation in April 2020, over two years before it peaked.
  • Burry expected a recession, rate cuts, and stimulus spending to reignite inflation.

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A growing number of drugs are in short supply around the U.S., according to pharmacists. 

In the first three months of the year, there were 323 active medication shortages, surpassing the previous high of 320 shortages in 2014, according to a survey by the American Society of Health-System Pharmacists (ASHP) and Utah Drug Information Service. It also amounts to the most shortages since the trade group started keeping track in 2001. “All drug classes are vulnerable to shortages. Some of the most worrying shortages involve generic sterile injectable medications, including cancer chemotherapy drugs and emergency medications stored in hospital crash carts and procedural areas,” ASHP said in a statement

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Scheduling an appointment with a primary care doctor who belongs to a large health system might cause an increase in health care spending, according to a recent study. Such physicians tend to make more referrals to specialists, and emergency room visits and hospitalizations sometimes increase, according to the research out of Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health.

In short, physicians who work for health care systems like hospitals are more likely to recommend that patients use other services within those systems, compared with independent physicians. For the study — which was published in JAMA Health Forum, a journal of the American Medical Association — researchers analyzed the experiences of more than 4 million patients in Massachusetts.

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UnitedHealth Chairman Stephen Hemsley and other executives sold $102 million in company stock months before a federal antitrust probe became public, Bloomberg reported.

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Small physician practices are still struggling in the wake of February’s Change Healthcare cyberattack, according to an American Medical Association (AMA) survey released Wednesday.

More than half of ~1,400 respondents (55%) reported that they’ve had to use personal funds to cover their practice’s expenses due to the cyberattack’s effects on cash flow. Practices across the country have been unable to fill prescriptions or process insurance claims as Change Healthcare systems went offline, Healthcare Brew previously reported. About two-thirds of respondents said they’ve experienced restrictions to core functions, such as suspending claim payments (36%), not being able to submit claims (32%), and not being able to obtain electronic remittance advice (39%), according to the survey.

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Here’s where the major benchmarks ended:

  • The S&P 500 index fell 75.65 points (1.5%) to 5,123.41, down 1.6% for the week; the Dow Jones Industrial Averagelost 475.84 points (1.2%) to 37,983.24, down 2.4% for the week; the NASDAQ Composite® ($COMP) dropped 267.10 points (1.6%) to 16,175.09, down 0.5% for the week.
  • The 10-year Treasury note yield (TNX) fell more than 5 basis points to 4.52%, still up about 12 basis points for the week.
  • The CBOE Volatility Index® (VIX) rose 2.38 to 17.30.

Semiconductor shares were also among the weakest performers Friday as chip makers reversed Thursday’s sharp gains. The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index (SOX) dropped more than 3% and ended with its third straight weekly decline. Energy companies were also under pressure after crude oil prices retreated from the morning rally. Oil futures are still up 20% this year. The small-cap Russell 2000® Index (RUT) lost 1.9% and posted a 2.9% drop for the week.

In other markets, the U.S. dollar index (DXY) strengthened to a five-month high and gained 1.7% this week, reflecting beliefs the hotter-than-expected inflation readings earlier this week will keep interest rates elevated. Volatility based on the VIX jumped to its highest level since late October.

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DAILY UPDATE: Bloomberg Health Staffing Philanthropy as Stock Markets Hit Record Highs, Again!

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Billionaire Michael Bloomberg is taking a swing at the healthcare staffing shortage. His philanthropy arm recently dedicated $250 million to create high schools that move grads straight into healthcare jobs. The schools plan to partner directly with big-name health systems, including Mass General Brigham and Northwell Health.

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Stocks climbed as investors got good news from companies reporting their quarterly earnings, including Chipotle and Ford. NY Community Bancorp continued its wild ride since reporting surprise Q4 losses, finishing on an upward swing yesterday after reassuring investors about its liquidity and deposits—though it’s still down 31% from the beginning of the month.

Here’s where the major benchmarks ended:

  • The S&P 500 index rose 40.83 points (0.8%) to 4,995.06; the Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 156.00 points (0.4%) to 38,677.36; the NASDAQ Composite® (COMP) added 147.65 points (1.0%) to 15,756.64.
  • The 10-year Treasury note yield (TNX) rose slightly more than 2 basis points to 4.117%.
  • The CBOE Volatility Index® (VIX) fell 0.23 to 12.83.

Transportation shares were among the strongest performers behind gains in trucking companies like XPO, Inc. (XPO), which rallied 18% after reporting stronger-than-expected earnings before Wednesday’s open. The Dow Jones Transportation Average (DJT) rose 0.4% and hit its highest level since mid-August. Consumer discretionary and semiconductor shares also ranked among the strongest sectors.

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JEROME POWELL: Speaks On “Premature” Interest Rate Cuts

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What Is Money Factor for SMB? : On Auto Monthly Lease Payment

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With the Fed’s aggressive rate hikes to curb inflation looking like they’ve finally come to an end thanks to encouraging data on prices falling, investors are starting to look forward to when the central bankers start slashing rates again.

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But Jerome Powell sought to pour some cold water on the rate cut hype cycle during a speech at Spelman College in Atlanta, Georgia yesterday, saying that it was too soon “to speculate on when policy might ease.” However, investors still think he’ll come around: Markets are putting the odds that the Fed will cut rates in March above 50% and are totally convinced it’ll happen by May, according to Bloomberg.

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DAILY UPDATE: Stock Markets Rally and IPOs

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As we reported, the S&P 500 had its best day of the year on Friday as stocks kept their November rally rolling right into December. Pfizer, however, fell to its lowest since March 2020 after announcing that it’s pulling the plug on its experimental twice-a-day weight loss pill because it caused too many negative side effects even as pharmaceutical companies are rushing to serve the growing weight loss market.

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And, Panera Bread filed IPO paperwork, the Financial Times reported. And it’s not the only household name that’s anticipated to hit brokerage apps next year as more companies are once again considering going public. The past two years have been an IPO stale mate as rising interest rates led to a tepid market for newcomers. Last year, Panera itself aborted a public listing it was planning via a special purpose acquisition company [SPAC] due to harsh market conditions.

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But, things might be different in 2024. Fast-fashion behemoth Shein also recently filed paperwork for what could be a blockbuster IPO that raises as much as $90 billion, per Bloomberg. The publication says that more companies are rumored to be thinking about joining the potential IPO bonanza. For example:

  • Kim Kardashian might list her $4 billion undergarment brand, Skims.
  • Reddit is supposedly flirting with the idea of going public. It would be the first major social media IPO in years, and it’s been in the offing since last year, when Reddit was valued at $15 billion.

However, all IPOs have not done well:

  • The Birkenstock and Instacart IPOs fell short of expectations according to investment data from Dealogic
  • Three out of four companies that IPOed this year were trading below their offer prices as of the middle of last month.
  • Companies debuting on the public markets raised a meager $20 billion so far this year, a slight rebound from 2022 but a ~90% decline from 2021.

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WEIGHT LOSS DRUGS FOR KIDS: Stocks for Adults?

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The already booming market for weight loss treatments like Ozempic might get even bigger as drug companies seek to make them available for children. The CDC estimates that ~20% of kids 6+ in the US have obesity, and manufacturers are working to make their weight loss drugs available for that age group.

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According to Bloomberg, Novo Nordisk is testing its Saxenda in kids as young as six, and Eli Lilly is getting ready for similar trials of Mounjaro. That could give the companies lifelong customers since the drugs only keep weight off as long as people take them—and Goldman Sachs’s recent estimate that the drug category would make $100 billion by 2030 didn’t even take sales to children into account.

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APPLE: Stock Bites

By Staff Reporters

APPLE

The NASDAQ fell for the fourth-straight session as Apple stock—its biggest component—comes under major pressure.

Apple has lost ~$200 billion in market value over the past two days since Bloomberg reported the Chinese government was going to widen its ban on using iPhones. Any threat to Apple’s business in China is going to worry investors—it’s the company’s biggest international market and a production hub.

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HOUSING: Affordability Down

By Staff Reporters

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Housing affordability Getting Worse

Surging bond yields are playing out in a bad way in the housing market, where the average mortgage rate in the US jumped to 7.09%, its highest level since 2002, per Freddie Mac. Combine those eye-watering borrowing costs with an inventory crunch that’s driven up prices, and you get the worst housing affordability conditions in four decades, Bloomberg reports.

Roughly 75% of US homeowners have mortgage rates of less than 4%, according to JPMorgan, so you can imagine why no one is eager to move and pay upward of 7% on a new place.

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GASOLINE: Prices Slowly Rising Again!

By Staff Reporters

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The average price for a gallon of gasoline in the US just rose to an eight-month high of $3.71, as per AAA. While that’s far below last summer’s peak of $5.02 per gallon, gas prices have been creeping up due to refineries going offline unexpectedly and higher demand for oil at a time when supply isn’t there to meet it.

Bloomberg Opinion’s oil guru, Javier Blas, notes that global oil consumption has likely reached a record high.

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Recession, Interest Rates and Earnings?

By Staff Reporters

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Recession: Last October, economists surveyed by Bloomberg were predicting a 100% chance of a Recession. But currently, the Dow is riding a 10-day winning streak, and the S&P 500 is just over 5% away from its all-time high. This week, Wall Street will be glued to the Fed’s interest rate announcement and a heavy slate of earnings.

Final Fed rate hike? The Federal Reserve will likely announce another interest rate increase this week, but this could be the final hike in its 16-month quest to bring down inflation. If the Fed hikes 25 basis points as expected, interest rates would be at their highest level since 2001.

Earnings galore: Corporate America’s A-list will report Q2 earnings this week, including Meta, Alphabet, Microsoft, McDonald’s, Coca-Cola, and Exxon Mobil. In all, about one-third of companies in the S&P 500 will give financial updates over the next five days, so we should get a good look into the health of a bunch of different industries.

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DAILY UPDATE: Global Stock Earnings Reports Pending?

By Staff Reporters

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A near-$10 trillion rally for global stocks this year will face a make-or-break moment as hundreds of companies report earnings over the next few weeks.

S&P 500 firms are expected to post a 9% drop in profits in the second quarter, making it the worst season since 2020, according to data compiled by Bloomberg Intelligence.

In Europe, it may be even worse, with a projected 12% slump. But with the bar already low — and some indicators suggesting an earnings recovery next year — strategists are split on how the markets will react.

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BUSTED: Bank of America as Inflation Cools?

By Staff Reporters

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BofA must refund $100 million to customers, pay $90 million in penalties to the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau and $60 million to the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency. “Bank of America wrongfully withheld credit card rewards, double-dipped on fees, and opened accounts without consent,” said CFPB Director Rohit Chopra, in a statement.

“These practices are illegal and undermine customer trust.”

Combined, it is one of the highest financial penalties in years against Bank of America, which has largely spent the last 15 years trying to clean up its reputation and market itself to the public as a bank focused on financial health and not on overdraft fee income and financial trickery.

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The latest reading ion core inflation indicates a notable cool-down in June but still exceeds the Federal Reserve’s inflation target of 2%.

Data just released exceeded the expectations of economists surveyed by Bloomberg, who expected inflation to have fallen to 3.1% in June. Inflation rose a modest 0.2% on a monthly basis, accelerating from a 0.1% increase in May. Despite the encouraging report, core inflation — which strips out volatile food and energy prices — rose 4.8%.

Food prices, meanwhile, continued to accelerate faster than overall inflation, rising 5.7% in June compared to a year ago. and, the price of flour rose about 12% in June compared to a year ago, roughly quadruple of the overall inflation rate; while the price of bakery products rose 9.5% over that period and the price of cookies rose nearly 9%.

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DAILY UPDATE: Home Sales Slow Down

By Staff Reporters

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Want to know why there are seemingly no houses for sale in the US these days? These numbers should help explain:

The average rate on a 30-year mortgage climbed to 6.81% last week, its highest level of 2023, according to Freddie Mac. At the same time, almost 92% of US homeowners with mortgages have an interest rate of less than 6%, Redfin reported.

So, not many current homeowners are willing to ditch their lower mortgage rates for the higher one that would come with a new house.

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  • Markets: As Wall Street heads into another earnings season this week, no one has much of a clue where stocks will go from here. Bloomberg notes there’s a whopping 50% difference between the most bullish analyst forecast for the S&P 500 for the rest of 2023 and the most bearish.

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DAILY UPDATE: Summer Speaks, Powell Suggests and Gensler Escalates as the Markets Rise

By Staff Reporters

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The US economy remains “very, very hot,” though not as much as it was six to 12 months ago, said former Treasury Secretary Lawrence Summers. “The United States is, today, an underlying 4.5-5% inflation country,” Summers said, speaking via video link at the start of the two-day Caixin Asia New Vision Forum in Singapore. At the same time, soft landings “represent the triumph of hope over experience,” and commercial real estate is one area where there are likely to be “pockets of distress,” said Professor Summers of Harvard University.

At its meeting this week, the Federal Reserve is expected to do something it hasn’t done in the last 15 months: not raise interest rates. Chair Jerome Powell suggested it might be time to take a breather as a series of rate hikes filters through the economy.

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Last week, the S&P 500 reached its fourth consecutive winning week and the NASDAQ seventh as investors find fewer things to be worried about. In a sign of that cautious optimism, Goldman Sachs slashed its probability of a recession in the next year from 35% to 25%.

Crypto: SEC Chair Gary Gensler dramatically escalated his war on crypto-currency last week, and prices took a big hit. Four of the 10 most valuable cryptocurrencies fell by at least 15%, per CoinMarketCap.

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VICE MEDIA: Over and Out

By Staff Reporters

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Vice Media filed for bankruptcy

The company, which was valued at $5.7 billion in 2017, filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection yesterday and plans to sell itself to a group of creditors for $225 million. It’s the latest in a string of digital media companies to stumble recently after advertising revenue became harder to come by.

Vice’s filing also made it one of seven large companies to head to bankruptcy court in a 48-hour period—the largest number of filings during a two-day period since 2008, according to Bloomberg.

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DAILY UPDATE: Jack Dorsey, Deutsche Bank and the Markets

By Staff Reporters

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Short seller Hindenburg Research has hit another billionaire’s fortune with a report. Jack Dorsey, the co-founder of payments company Block and Twitter, saw his net worth tumble by $526 million, or 11%, to $4.4 billion after the US-based research firm led by Nathan Anderson accused Block of misleading investors in a March 23 report, according to Bloomberg. Dorsey isn’t on the list of the world’s 500 richest persons on the Bloomberg Billionaires Index currently. He was previously featured at number 456 with a net worth of $5.41 billion on March 22nd, per Insider’s scan of the Index on Wednesday.

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Investors sparked a furious selloff in Deutsche Bank AG and thrust one of Europe’s most important lenders into the center of concerns about the health of the global financial system. Shares of Germany’s largest lender tumbled as much as 15%, their third consecutive day of losses, though they later regained some ground and were recently down 10%. The cost to insure against its default using credit-default swaps soared to their highest levels since 2020.

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Chairman Jerome Powell was ambiguous this week about future Federal Reserve moves, suggesting “some additional policy firming may be needed.”

Treasury yields dropped near seven-month lows, a seeming indication of escalating recession worries after the Fed raised its benchmark lending rate nine times to a range of 4.75% to 5% over the past year. The release next week of updated data on consumer confidence, inflation, and economic growth will likely be in focus.

Monetary Policy: https://medicalexecutivepost.com/2023/03/17/the-modern-us-monetary-system/

The swings in stock prices this week “were consistent with the unclear outlook for monetary policy, the banking system, and the broader economy,” says Kevin Gordon, senior investment strategist at Charles Schwab. “More time needs to pass before we know the true impact of the expected tightening in credit conditions.”

  • The S&P 500® Index was up 22.27 (0.6%) at 3970.99; the Dow Jones industrial average was up 132.28 (0.4%) at 32,237.53; the NASDAQ Composite was up 36.56 (0.3%) at 11,823.96.
  • The 10-year Treasury yield was little changed at about 3.374%.
  • CBOE’s Volatility Index was down 0.87 at 21.74.

The real estate sector led the gainers Friday, followed by consumer staples and health care. Financials and consumer discretionary stocks edged lower, and technology stocks were little changed, though the tech-focused NASDAQ Composite still notched its second straight weekly gain. Gold and crude oil futures both declined, while the U.S. dollar strengthened.

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