Fractional Reserve VERSUS Gerbil Banking

Cons from the Austrian School of Economics

By Staff Reporters

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According to Coinmena, fractional reserve banking is a system in which banks are only required to have a fraction of bank deposits from their customers backed by actual cash on hand or available for withdrawal. This is done to expand the economy by enabling banks to free idle capital for commercial lending while keeping a sufficient amount for customer withdrawals.

The creation of the fractional reserve?

The fractional reserve system was first established by the Swedish Riksbank in 1668 after establishing the first central bank in the world. The idea came about after banks realized that there is a minimal chance that all the customers would come to claim their money from the bank at once; therefore, instead of hoarding the money in a vault, it could be used to grow and expand the economy through commercial loans. Fractional reserve banking became more popular around the world after the U.S. enacted The Federal Reserve Act of 1913, which created the Federal Reserve Bank, now known as the U.S. Central bank.

CITE: https://www.r2library.com/Resource/Title/0826102549

How does it work?

When a customer deposits money into their bank account, the money is no longer directly theirs. The bank holds custody of the customer deposits, and they provide the customer with a deposit account that they can withdraw their money from upon demand.

The bank now has full control of the money as the custodian. The bank can opt to reserve a small percentage of the deposited amount (fractional reserve) and loan the rest or use it for another commercial purpose. The reserve amount usually ranges between 3% to 10%. Although, during harsh economic times, the central banks can lower this reserve requirement to 0%. The Covid-19 pandemic forced central banks around the world to lower the reserve requirement to help stimulate the economy.

 Example

  • Customer A deposits 100,000 AED in Bank 1. Bank 1 loans Customer B 90,000 AED
  • Customer B deposits 90,000 AED in Bank 2. Bank 2 loans Customer C 81,000 AED
  • Customer C deposits 81,000 AED in Bank 3. Bank 3 loans Customer D 72,900 AED
  • Customer D deposits 72,900 AED in Bank 4. Bank 4 loans Customer E 65,610 AED
  • Customer E deposits 65,610 AED in Bank 5. Bank 5 loans Customer F 59,049 AED

 As you can see, the original amount of 100,000 AED has been expanded to represent deposited money for five accounts, and the total existing money supply is 468,559 AED, including the final loan. This is a basic representation of the money multiplier effect.

The system works on the basic principles of debt. The money deposited into the bank by a customer is considered a debt (liability) on the bank to the customer and an asset for the customer. The banks then loan out this money with an interest rate to make a profit for themselves and have the principal amount to pay back their original debt to the depositor (customer).

Pros & Cons of fractional reserve

Banks have the most benefit from a fractional reserve system as this is the way they make their profits. Additionally, customers can also earn interest through their savings or deposit account paid from the interest profits made by the bank. Governments also support this system because it encourages spending and provides economic stability and growth.

Economists from the Austrian School of Economics argue that this system is unsustainable and risky given that most countries rely on a credit-based system and not hard money. Additionally, a fractional reserve system runs the risk of a bank run. Essentially, if people lose faith in a bank to be able to pay back all the depositor’s money, it would trigger a  “run on the banks” or “bank run.” It is not typical behavior for customers to go claim their money from the bank all at once, but it has happened in the past, with the most notorious example being the 1929 Great Depression in the U.S. In this case, the banks would only be able to pay out only 3% of depositors, equal to the fractional reserve requirement.

More: https://www.sofi.com/learn/content/what-is-fractional-reserve-banking/

Related: https://www.washingtonpost.com/washington-post-live/2023/03/21/former-fdic-chair-sheila-bair-global-banking-system/?utm_campaign=mb&utm_medium=newsletter&utm_source=morning_brew

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GERBIL BANKING

Link: https://fortune.com/2023/03/23/gerbil-banking-preceded-the-great-depression-were-seeing-it-again-today/

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FEDERAL RESERVE: Lowers Interest Rates as Expected

By Staff Reporters

BREAKING NEWS

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Jerome Powell and the Federal Reserve Bank just said that it is cutting its benchmark interest rate by 0.50 percentage points, marking the first reduction in four years and moving to ease borrowing costs as inflation-weary consumers are grappling with high rates on everything from mortgages to credit cards.

It is the first drop in the federal funds rate — or what banks charge each other for short-term loans — since the U.S. central bank lowered rates to nearly zero in March 2020 amid an economic standstill caused by the pandemic.

But as prices surged during the health crisis, the FOMC repeatedly hiked rates into a target range of 5.25% to 5.5%, the highest in 23 years, in an effort to curb inflation.

CITE: https://www.r2library.com/Resource

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FOMC: Interest Rate Cut Today?

At 2 pm EST Today

By Staff Reporters

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ABOUT THE FEDERAL OPEN MARKET COMMITTEE

The term “monetary policy” refers to the actions undertaken by a central bank, such as the Federal Reserve, to influence the availability and cost of money and credit to help promote national economic goals. The Federal Reserve Act of 1913 gave the Federal Reserve responsibility for setting monetary policy.

The Federal Reserve controls the three tools of monetary policy–open market operations, the discount rate, and reserve requirements. The Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System is responsible for the discount rate and reserve requirements, and the Federal Open Market Committee is responsible for open market operations. Using the three tools, the Federal Reserve influences the demand for, and supply of, balances that depository institutions hold at Federal Reserve Banks and in this way alters the federal funds rate. The federal funds rate is the interest rate at which depository institutions lend balances at the Federal Reserve to other depository institutions overnight.

Changes in the federal funds rate trigger a chain of events that affect other short-term interest rates, foreign exchange rates, long-term interest rates, the amount of money and credit, and, ultimately, a range of economic variables, including employment, output, and prices of goods and services.

Cite: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomc.htm

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And so, the macroeconomic FOMC is kicking off at 2pm ET today, when the Fed will announce the first interest rate cut in over four years. But, financial watchers are split between two predictions: a standard 0.25% cut or a more aggressive one of 0.5% (investors are betting on the latter, while many analysts think the former).

Regardless of its size, today’s rate cut and subsequent ones are expected to make borrowing cheaper for consumers and businesses, with ripple effects throughout the economy.

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STOCK MARKETS: Summer Ends at Record High

By Staff Reporters

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Stock Markets celebrated Labor Day 2024 and the end of summer with the Dow Jones Industrial Average closing at another record high and the S&P 500 clinching its fourth straight winning month. The Fed’s favorite inflation gauge came in as expected, providing yet another sign pointing to a September interest rate cut.

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And Intel rose on reports that the beleaguered micro chip maker is considering various options, including breaking up the business, to overcome its slump.

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CONSUMER CONFIDENCE INDEX: Six Month High!

By Staff Reporters

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DEFINITION: Consumer confidence index (CCI) is a standardized confidence indicator providing an indication of future developments of households’ consumption and saving.

The index is based upon answers regarding household’s expected financial situation, their sentiment about the general economic situation, unemployment and capability of savings. An indicator above 100 signals a boost in the consumers’ confidence towards the future economic situation, as a consequence of which they are less prone to save, and more inclined to spend money on major purchases in the next 12 months. Values below 100 indicate a pessimistic attitude towards future developments in the economy, possibly resulting in a tendency to save more and consume less.

CITE: https://www.r2library.com/Resource

This indicator is measured as an amplitude adjusted index, long-term average = 100.

MORE: https://medicalexecutivepost.com/2024/08/28/

US consumer confidence hits a six-month high

The decline in inflation and the expectation of an imminent interest rate cut have Americans feeling better about the economy than they have in a while, according to the latest update of the Conference Board’s consumer confidence index [CCI].

On the other hand, consumers are worried about the softening labor market. While the unemployment rate remains below historical standards at 4.3%, it has increased for four straight months—likely enough to convince J. Powell and the Federal Reserve to cut rates in September.

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DAILY UPDATE: Nvidia, Medical Practice and Healthcare Costs

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Every medical practice, clinic or healthcare business needs cost and financial organization. We provide it through our detailed annual reports. When starting out, the pre-construction phase of a medical practice is crucial, because it sets the course for a successful project. It includes business and financial assessments, in which we learn about your goals, vision, financial realities and current and future facility needs.

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Employers are Bracing for Healthcare Costs to Spike in 2025. Employers are up against escalating healthcare costs driven by mounting prescription drug expenses, inflation, and worsening chronic conditions, a new survey shows. The Business Group on Health released its annual Employer Health Care Strategy Survey, which examines the trends that large employers are watching and their plans to address the healthcare challenges they may face. The survey projects that healthcare cost trends will jump to 8% in 2025, growing from 6% in 2022. Actual healthcare costs have increased by 50% since 2017, according to the report.

Source: Paige Minemyer, Fierce Healthcare [8/20/24]

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  • Markets: Jerome Powell spoke in Jackson Hole on Friday and finally confirmed that interest rate cuts are on the way. The news set stocks up for a big finish to the week.
  • Stock spotlight: Nvidia was among the stocks that jumped, and investors will be keeping an eye on it this week, when the AI chipmaker reports earnings.

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Visualize: How private equity tangled banks in a web of debt, from the Financial Times.

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J. POWELL: To Speak At Jackson Hole

By Staff Reporters

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Later this week, central bankers will meet in the shadow of the Tetons for the Jackson Hole Symposium, an annual retreat for global economic officials to talk monetary policy.

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The main event: Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell’s keynote speech on Friday, which investors hope will clarify the timing and pace of interest rate cuts.

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RECESSION INDICATOR: Inverted Yield Curve?

By Staff Reporters

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When economic trouble and/or uncertainty is brewing, it’s not uncommon for the US Treasury yield curve to flatten or even invert. A yield curve inversion, like we’re experiencing now, involves short-term-maturing bonds sporting higher yields than longer-dated Treasury bonds. It’s an indication that investors are worried about the U.S. economic outlook.

For the past 64 years, the Federal Reserve Bank of New York has used the Treasury yield spread between the 10-year bond rate and three-month bond rate to calculate the probability of a U.S. recession occurring within the next 12 months. Over these 64 years, the probability of a recession has topped 25% a dozen times and 40% on eight occasions. 

With the exception of a peak probability of a recession of 41.14% in October 1966, the New York Fed’s recession-forecasting tool hasn’t been wrong if it’s surpassed 40%. In other words, if the New York Fed’s recession probability indicator surpasses 40%, we’ve had a recession within 12 months, without fail, for more than a half-century.

In December 2022, this recession probability tool hit 47.31%. That’s the highest reading since 1981, and a very clear indication that economic activity is expected to slow at some point in 2024?

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DAILY UPDATE: Technology Stocks

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A magnificent earnings week is on tap: Four of the Magnificent Seven—Microsoft, Meta, Amazon, and Apple—will drop their reports throughout this week.

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Technology stocks were down last week but investors are encouraged by signs that 2024’s rally—which had been underpinned by a handful of Big Tech companies—is spreading to a broader swath of the market. For instance, the industrial focused Dow Jones Industrial Average has gained for four straight weeks, and the small-cap Russell 3000 is now up 14% this year. All eyes will be on the upcoming Federal Reserve meeting and the busiest earnings week of the season.

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Donald Trump pledges to make the US “the crypto capital of the planet.” The former president pitched himself as the pro-crypto candidate in a keynote speech at the Bitcoin 2024 conference in Nashville. He told the audience that, if elected, he’d fire SEC Chair Gary Gensler (whom the crypto community accuses of waging a war on crypto) and install regulators friendly to digital tokens. He also said he’d create a strategic national crypto stockpile as part of a plan to make the US the “bitcoin superpower of the world.”

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Consider two numbers: $568.34 and $60.09. The first is Zoom’s highest closing stock price, from October 2020; the second is its stock price today. That’s an 89% decline, caused by more workers heading back into the office (even Zoom employees) and competition from rival products by Microsoft and Google.

Visualize: How private equity tangled banks in a web of debt, from the Financial Times.

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ECONOMIC LANDSCAPE: Understanding Today

By Vitaliy Katsenelson CFA

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Interest rates that stay low and actually keep declining for almost a quarter of a century slowly propagate deep into the fabric of the economy.

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Interest rates went up and refused to decline. They are high in relation to where they came from, but they look reasonable in relation to inflation, which is running about 3%.

Bulls argue that current interest rates only appear to be high in relation to the last 20 years, and they are actually low if you look at the 30 years before the turn of the century. This argument is historically accurate, but it is missing a very important point – interest rates that stay low and actually keep declining for almost a quarter of a century slowly propagate deep into the fabric of the economy.

Let me try this analogy.

HERE: Understanding Today’s Economic Landscape

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DAILY UPDATE: Public Companies and the Stock Market Technology Sell-Off

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The S&P 500 and NASDAQ both continued to sink under the weight of a tech selloff today, with semiconductors leading the way down. But even the Dow and Russell 2000, which have been the clear winners of the recent rally, took a beating today as investors assessed what a market rotation really means for them. 10-year Treasury yields bounced from recent lows as investors try to read between the lines of a full week of Fedspeak. Gold and oil both sold off a bit more today, though both remain near recent highs.

CITE: https://www.r2library.com/Resource

What’s up

What’s down

  • Domino’s Pizza sank 13.42% after it missed earnings expectations last quarter and warned it will open fewer stores for the rest of 2024.
  • Beyond Meat tanked 10.32% on a report from the Wall Street Journal that management is in talks to restructure the company’s debt.
  • Eli Lilly slid another 6.24% as its selloff continues thanks to news that rival Roche Holdings is on its way to developing a weight-loss pill.
  • Nokia dropped 7.05% after posting its worst quarterly sales since 2015. Seems like nobody is buying phones with the shape and durability of a brick any more.

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Here’s where the major benchmarks ended:

  • The S&P 500 index fell 43.68 points (–0.78%) to 5,544.59; the Dow Jones Industrial Average® ($DJI) lost 533.06 points (–1.29%) to 40,665.02; the NASDAQ Composite gave up 125.70 points (–0.7%) to 17,871.22.
  • The 10-year Treasury note yield (TNX) rose about four basis points to 4.18%.
  • The CBOE Volatility Index climbed sharply to 15.9, its highest close since late April.

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INFLATION: Update FOMC

By Staff Reporters

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Jerome Powell said the Fed won’t wait for 2% inflation to cut rates

The central bank won’t wait to hit its inflation target before bringing interest rates down but wants to have “greater confidence” that inflation will get there in order to make cuts, Powell said at the Economic Club of Washington, DC, in his first public event since June’s cooling inflation numbers came out.

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MEDICAL INFLATION: https://medicalexecutivepost.com/2023/03/30/medical-economics-healthcare-inflation/

However, the FOMC chair wasn’t willing to get into specifics about when rate cuts might be coming.

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DAILY UPDATE: Earnings Season, the FOMC, Threads and Boeing

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Wall Street is counting down the hours until Friday, which is when Q2 earnings season kicks off. Investors are hoping anyone besides Big Tech will post impressive results to keep the rally going. Although the stock market has set record after record this year, it’s mostly been the work of tech giants. As of Tuesday, about 40% of S&P 500 companies were in the red for 2024.

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Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell will give updates on the economy to Congress on Tuesday and Wednesday, where he’ll likely be asked about the prospect of interest rate cuts. Those plans could become clearer on Thursday, when the consumer price index inflation report drops.

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Meta’s Twitter clone, Threads, has 175 million monthly users one year after its launch, CEO Mark Zuckerberg said.

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Boeing will plead guilty to a criminal fraud charge stemming from two fatal crashes of 737 Max planes and pay an additional $243.6 million fine, allowing it to avoid a criminal trial sought by victims’ families. More here.

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DAILY UPDATE: Non-Competes Pause as Stock Markets Rise

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Wednesday’s stock market trading was brief but sweet—the S&P 500 and NASDAQ closed at records in a half-day session. The stock market was closed yesterday for the Fourth of July, but will reopen today with all eyes on the June jobs report to be released this morning. It’s expected to show more cooling in the labor market, which would reinforce the FOMC is likely plan to cut interest rates this fall.

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A federal court temporarily paused a ban on noncompetes from taking effect in September, ruling that the FTC overstepped its authority in April when it ordered a halt to the clauses affecting 30 million Americans. The ban on noncompetes was intended to allow workers like doctors and nurses to move jobs more easily and boost wages in the process, but businesses opposed it on the grounds that competitors could poach their employees and they’d lose valuable trade secrets.

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LABOR DEPARTMENT: US Jobs

US ECONOMY

By Staff Reporters

The Labor Department just reported that the U.S. added 206,000 jobs last month, slightly beating expectations. But the unemployment rate ticked up to 4.1%, a sign of slack in a labor market that has been remarkably strong even in the face of high interest rates.

There were other signs as well that the job market continues to cool. Average hourly earnings were up 3.9% in June from a year earlier, marking their smallest gain since 2021. The jobs counts for both April and May were revised lower. The labor force participation rate, the share of working-age people who were employed or seeking work, ticked up—an indication that more people are entering the labor market.

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DAILY UPDATE: Walmart, HHS and Geriatrics as Companies and Stock Market Still Rise

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HAPPY JULY FOURTH

The S&P 500 broke above 5,500 yesterday and stayed there for the first time in market history, notching yet another all-time high for the index—its 32nd this year alone. With so much bullishness it’s understandable that investors may be wondering if we’re at the top yet, but chartists suggests gains tend to beget gains. The bulls have too much momentum to stop now—and if/when the FOMC cuts rates later this year, it seems likely that we’ll see more all-time highs in 2024? Any thoughts.

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The Biden administration has awarded $206.3 million of funding to clinician training programs across 42 universities and provider organizations to bolster the nation’s geriatrics care workforce. Programs will be able to integrate geriatrics training into primary care and will work to educate older adults’ families on their care needs. Health and Human Services, in its announcement, noted that primary care providers are a crucial source of care for much of the aging population.


As Walmart shutters its primary care clinics, the retail giant inked a deal to sell its MeMD telehealth business to health tech startup Fabric. Fabric provides a telemedicine platform for a range of customers, including provider groups, with the goal of improving the clinician and patient experience, as well as operational efficiency. The acquisition will expand its provider network, add virtual behavioral health to the company’s services and build on Fabric’s employer and payer solutions.


And…The U.S. Supreme Court has overturned the Chevron deference, stripping power from federal agencies to interpret and enforce regulations. Courts no longer have to defer to reasonable agency interpretations. One healthcare attorney told Fierce Healthcare he predicts the Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services will be under a microscope from the courts going forward, and there will be more scrutiny towards provider reimbursement cuts, drug pricing regulation and the Inflation Reduction Act.

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Here’s where the major benchmarks ended:

  • The S&P 500 index®(SPX)rose 28.01 points (0.51%) to 5,537.02; the Dow Jones Industrial Average® ($DJI) fell 23.85 points (-0.1%) to 39,308.00; the NASDAQ Composite® ($COMP) gained 159.54 points (0.9%) to 18,188.30.
  • The 10-year Treasury note yield (TNX) dropped seven basis points to 4.36%.
  • The CBOE Volatility Index® (VIX) held steady at 12.09.

What’s up

What’s down

  • First Foundation plummeted 23.81% after the bank announced it will raise $225 million to shore up a balance sheet burdened by commercial real estate loans.
  • Constellation Brands fell 3.76% after the alcoholic beverage maker reported stronger than expected earnings but missed Wall Street’s expectations on revenue.
  • Simulations Plus slid 14.87% after it reported strong third-quarter earnings but announced it’s cutting its dividend.
  • CureVac popped then dropped 6.59% after GSK bought the rights to the smaller pharma company’s Covid-19 and flu vaccines for $1.6 billion.

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DAILY UPDATE: Wall Street Stocks, Dow Dogs, Commodities, Gold, the Fed, Yen and Bitcoin

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If you can believe it, Friday was the final trading day of the first half of 2024. It might be a good time to reflect on your New Year’s resolutions to see how you’re measuring up halfway through the year.

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Dogs of the Dow: The 139-year-old index has never looked more its age, with components Nike, Intel, and Boeing all down more than 30% in 2024. The Dow has gained less than 4% this year.

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But, the S&P 500 gained a sublime 15% in H1, and Nvidia alone was responsible for more than a third of that gain. The maker of AI chips surged ~150% since Jan. 1st to become the most valuable company in the USA at one point.

Going into 2024, investors were expecting the Fed to cut interest rates six times. There hasn’t been a single rate cut yet, but that hasn’t stopped the S&P from notching 31 all-time closing highs, good for the second-best tally of records this century. Stocks have overcome the Fed’s delay thanks to strong earnings, a sturdy economy, and AI fever.

Commodities soar and a currency plummets. Cocoa boomed nearly 85% over shortage concerns. Gold hit a record high last month. The Japanese yen has slumped to a 38-year low against the US dollar.

Bitcoin got a boost from new ETFs, but it’s getting boring.

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DAILY UPDATE: Markets, Cue Health Down, Blue Kansas Part C and the FOMC

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Markets: Stocks dropped ever so slightly to end last week as investors tried to make sense of the big jobs report. Lots of jobs = good, but lots of jobs also = interest rates likely staying the same for awhile longer (more below). AMC had a rough day, tumbling 15% as the latest meme stock craze started to fizzle.

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Blue Kansas City Exiting MA Market by 2025 Due to ‘Regulatory Demands’

Blue Cross and Blue Shield of Kansas City (Blue KC) is leaving the Medicare Advantage (MA) market at the end of 2024, the insurer announced recently. The company blamed “heightened regulatory demands and rising market and financial pressures” for the decision but said it is still focused on employer-sponsored health plans, and Medicare supplement and Affordable Care Act plans in the state.

“We explored every alternative path for our MA members and are disappointed we must exit this line of business,” said Erin Stucky, Blue KC President and CEO, in a statement. “We value our MA members and are committed to providing uninterrupted, quality service to our current MA membership through the end of 2024.”

Source: Noah Tong, Fierce Healthcare [6/3/24]

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Cue Health, founded in 2010, started with great hopes as it promised a way to accurately test for Covid-19 without needing a lab. “We designed and developed a new molecular testing platform bringing lab complexity to an easy-to-use, portable device. Now you can get the best of lab molecular testing — speed, accuracy, and versatility – at home, the office, or on the go,” the company shared on its website. The company went public (with the ticker  (HLTH) ) in 2021 at $16 and rose to $20.55 and carried that massive $2.3 billion valuation. Through 2023 and into this year, Cue unsuccessfully tried to shore up operations, get new products to market, and find new capital.

In May, however, the FDA advised customers not to use two of its products at all because they did not deliver accurate results. Finally, its board and executives threw in the towel. On May 28th, the company announced it was ceasing operations and filed for bankruptcy in Delaware’s U.S. Bankruptcy Court. The company’s assets will be sold off at an undetermined date, and the proceeds will be distributed to creditors.       

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Inflation data from the Fed meeting on Wednesday: Inflation data for May arrives in the morning, and it’s expected to show price growth held steady at 3.4% annually. In the afternoon, the FOMC will wrap up its meeting with a Jerome Powell press conference. The Fed is pretty much a lock to hold interest rates at their current level.

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DAILY UPDATE: Friday Before Memorial Day Weekend and the Stock Market Collapse

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The Friday before Memorial Day is never action packed, and this year is no exception as earnings season begins to wrap up and economic readings slow down. Two reports to watch for tomorrow: April Durable Goods Orders and University of Michigan’s May sentiment report.

Durable Goods Orders are big-ticket items with a shelf life of three or more years—think appliances and furniture for consumers, or machinery, equipment, and vehicles for businesses. More durable goods orders indicate a healthy economy, as consumers and companies alike wouldn’t spend as much if they weren’t confident they could afford it, and also provides insight into how strong the manufacturing industry is.

The University of Michigan’s consumer sentiment index is a survey of consumers via telephone to better understand how they feel about the economy, what they’re spending their money on, etc. The preliminary findings earlier this month weren’t great thanks to sticky inflation, and tomorrow’s finalized readings won’t change much. But with the latest CPI reading indicating inflation might yet be tamed, next month’s report could be much more illuminating.

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Here’s where the major benchmarks ended:

  • The S&P 500® index (SPX) fell 39.17 points (0.7%) to 5,267.84; the Dow Jones Industrial Average lost 605.78 points (1.5%) to 39,065.26; the NASDAQ Composite® ($COMP) shed 65.51 points (0.4%) to 16,736.03.
  • The 10-year Treasury note yield rose more than 4 basis points to 4.479%.
  • The CBOE Volatility Index® (VIX) rose 0.48 to 12.77.

Financial shares were among Thursday’s weakest performers amid ideas a “higher-for-longer” Fed rate outlook could pressure bank margins. The KBW Regional Bank Index (KRX) dropped almost 3% to a three-week low. Other interest-rate-sensitive sectors, including real estate and utilities, took pressure.

In other markets, WTI Crude Oil (/CL) futures fell for the fourth straight trading day and closed at a three-month low under $76 per barrel.

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Spot Ethereum ETFs were approved by the SEC in another big win for crypto, following the approval of spot bitcoin ETFs earlier this year.

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DAILY UPDATE: Hims & Hers, MSFT-AI, Neuralink, FDIC and New Market Highs

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Microsoft unveiled new PCs with AI-powered features.

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Hims & Hers stock soared as much as 38% on the news that it’ll provide GLP-1 injections with the same active ingredient as Ozempic or Wegovy for just $199/month—an 85% discount compared to Wegovy’s ~$1,350 monthly price tag (without insurance).

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FDIC Chair Martin Gruenberg will resign after an investigation found widespread sexual harassment at the agency. But he won’t step down until a successor is named.

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The FDA granted Elon Musk’s neurotech company Neuralink, approval to place its brain chip into a second human test subject using a new method designed to correct issues that arose after its inaugural insertion in January, per the Wall Street Journal.

And, Optum Rx is shaking up its pharmacy model. The business says it will make drug costs more predictable and transparent for clients.

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  • All three indexes ended the day higher after Fed Governor Christopher Waller stopped by CNBC and mentioned he doesn’t think raising interest rates is in the cards, even if the Fed is waiting for more data before making cuts. The NASDAQ continued to hit new all-time highs today as investors place their bets before Nvidia’s earnings announcement tomorrow afternoon, and the S&P 500 hit yet another record.
  • Copper continued to rise as the market comes to terms with the metal’s importance, while oil fell on the news that the Biden administration will release 1 million barrels of gasoline this summer from the Northeast reserve. Meanwhile, ethereum continued to climb on the news that a new ETF may be joining the fray.

Here’s where the major benchmarks ended:

  • The S&P 500 index rose 13.28 points (0.3%) to 5,321.41; the Dow Jones Industrial Average® ($DJI) gained 66.22 points (0.2%) to 39,872.99; the NASDAQ Composite advanced 37.75 points (0.2%) to 16,832.62.
  • The 10-year Treasury note yield (TNX) lost more than 2 basis points to 4.414%.
  • The CBOE Volatility Index® (VIX) fell 0.29 to 11.86.

Banking and consumer staples were among the market’s strongest performers Tuesday, while utility shares extended a sharp upswing over the past month. The Dow Jones Utility Average® ($DJU) added 0.5% and closed at a 12-month high. Transportation companies were among the weakest performers.

In other markets, Gold (/GC) futures slipped from Monday’s record high above $2,454 per ounce, while Silver (/SI) futures ended near a 12-year high around $32.21. Gold futures are still up 17% this year due to several factors, including reports of China’s central bank buying actual gold as well as escalating conflict in the Middle East. Gold is viewed by some as a safe-haven asset during periods of heightened geopolitical tension.

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DAILY UPDATE: Abbvie, Treasuries, Gold, Copper and the NASDAQ Rally

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The yield on the 10-year Treasury rose as investors wait for word from the FOMC on Wednesday, while oil initially rose on the news of the death of the president of Iran, though it fell back down to end the day lower after succession of the presidency was settled. But investors were clearly still feeling jittery as gold hit new highs on the back of geopolitical concerns. Copper also rose to a new all-time high.

Here’s where the major benchmarks ended:

  • The S&P 500 index gained 4.86 points (0.1%) to 5,308.13; the Dow Jones Industrial Average® ($DJI) lost 196.82 points (0.5%) to 39,806.77; the NASDAQ Composite rallied 108.91 points (0.7%) to 16,794.87.
  • The 10-year Treasury note yield (TNX) increased more than 2 basis points to 4.443%.
  • The CBOE Volatility Index® (VIX) rose 0.15 to 12.14.

Nvidia’s gain helped push the PHLX Semiconductor Index (SOX) more than 2% to a two-and-a-half-month high and just under a record close posted in early March. The small-cap Russell 2000® Index (RUT) added 0.3% and ended slightly below a six-week high posted last Wednesday. 

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JPMorgan shares fell 4.5% as investors realized that they won’t have Jamie Dimon around forever—he told shareholders at a meeting today that his 5-year timetable for leaving the company no longer applies.

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After AbbVie’s Humira, the best-selling drug in the world, lost patent exclusivity in 2023, company executives placed their bets on two other AbbVie drugs, Skyrizi and Rinvoq, to make up for an anticipated steep decline in revenue.

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DAILY UPDATE: Fiduciary Rule with Stock Market Earnings Week

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For last the week, the NASDAQ Composite (^IXIC) rose more than 2% while the S&P 500 (^GSPC) popped more than 1.5%. The Dow Jones Industrial Average (^DJI) rose more than 1%, closing above 40,000 for the first time ever on Friday.

In the week ahead, highly anticipated earnings results from Nvidia (NVDA) are expected to be the key catalyst for markets. Results from Target (TGT), Palo Alto Networks (PANW), and Lowe’s (LOW) will also be closely tracked by investors.

The week is also expected to be quieter on the economic front, with updates on activity in the manufacturing and services sectors as well as the final reading of consumer sentiment for May on tap. Minutes from the Fed’s May meeting are also expected on Wednesday afternoon.

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The rule, finalized last month by the Labor Department, requires investment advisers to provide “prudent, loyal, honest advice free from overcharges” and avoid recommendations that favor their interests at the expense of their clients. It also updates the definition of an investment advice fiduciary under the Employee Retirement Income Security Act (ERISA) and Internal Revenue Code. 

Under the new definition, a fiduciary includes any financial services provider who offers investment advice to a retirement investor for a fee and who claims to be acting as a fiduciary or who a reasonable investor understands to be a trusted adviser acting in their best interest. The update removes the requirement that fiduciaries provide advice on a regular basis, bringing one-time advice under the rule. The Biden administration has argued that the previous definition, which was written in 1975, is outdated and has not kept pace with changes to the retirement landscape. 

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And, confidence in the U.S. dollar has waned, as forecasts suggest that a dip in inflation might allow the Federal Reserve to slash interest rates. With a notable 5% climb earlier this year, the dollar is now bracing for its first loss of 2024, triggered by a promising inflation report.

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Finally, fourteen of the world’s 20 largest stock markets have hit all-time highs recently, including England, Japan, Brazil, India, and Canada, according to Bloomberg. In the USA, the S&P 500 (also at a record) hasn’t dropped more than 2% in a trading session in 311 days, the longest streak in five years.

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DAILY UPDATE: Jerome Powell, DJIA, Reddit and Life Insurance

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Young adults are delaying life insurance purchases due to financial constraints and a preference for spending on immediate experiences. The insurance industry is responding with digital-first strategies and more flexible products.

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The DJIA closed above 40,000 for the first time after briefly crossing the milestone the day before and clinching its fifth winning week. Reddit shot up after announcing a partnership with OpenAI that lets the AI train on your posts and gives Reddit advertising dollars and the ability to use the tech to make new tools.

But, GameStop stock plunged after the recently reinvigorated meme stock filed to sell 45 million new shares and revealed that sales were down last quarter.

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Jerome Powell, chair of the Federal Reserve has tested positive for Covid. But the economy needn’t worry because he’s working from home.

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The M1 and M2 Money Supply

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DEFINITION: In macro-economics, the money supply (or money stock) refers to the total volume of currency held by the public at a particular point in time. There are several ways to define “money”, but standard measures usually include currency in circulation (i.e. physical cash) and demand deposits (depositors’ easily accessed assets on the books of financial institutions . The Central Bank [FOMC] of a country may use a definition of what constitutes legal tender for its purposes.

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Though there are a few variations of money supply, most economists tend to focus on M1 and M2. The former takes into account cash and coins in circulation, as well as demand deposits in checking accounts and traveler’s checks. In other words, money that’s either in your hand or can be accessed very easily.

Meanwhile, M2 accounts for everything in M1 and adds savings accounts, money market funds, and certificates of deposit (CDs) below $100,000. It’s money you have access to, but it takes a little extra effort to put this capital to work. It’s M2 money supply that’s raising eyebrows on Wall Street and making history.

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What’s of interest is what’s happened to M2 money supply over the trailing year. Following a peak of $21.7 trillion in July 2022, M2 has fallen to a fresh reading of $20.81 trillion, as of May 2023. Although the May reading was higher than April and broke a nine-month downtrend, we’ve still witnessed a 4.1% aggregate drop in M2 from its all-time high. 

Considering that M2 enjoyed a historic expansion during the pandemic, it’s certainly possible that a 4.1% decline can be shrugged off as nothing more than money supply reverting back to the mean. But history suggests otherwise.

Though history rarely repeats itself on Wall Street, it often rhymes. We haven’t seen a meaningful year-over-year decline in M2 money supply since the Great Depression in 1933.

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And so, based on what we’re seeing from M2 money supply, commercial bank lending, and domestic banks tightening their lending standards for C&I loans, the ingredients for a U.S. recession are most definitely there. Stock losses have, historically, been most pronounced in the months that follow the official declaration of a recession by the eight-economist panel of the National Bureau of Economic Research.

However, Wall Street’s performance is largely dependent on your investment time frame. If you’re patient, these and other potentially worrisome money metrics represent nothing more than temporary white noise.

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DAILY UPDATE: Cooling Labor Markets with Unemployment Rate Uptick

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A cooling labor market raises hopes for a rate cut in the summer. The latest Labor Department data shows the US added 175,000 jobs in April, but much less than the 300,000 added in March and also less than economists expected. Meanwhile, the unemployment rate ticked up to 3.9% from 3.8% in March, and wages rose less than anticipated. All that bad news for us was music to the ears of investors who are holding out hope that the Federal Reserve might still cut interest rates this summer despite most recent economic data showing that inflation is sticking around.

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Rate cuts appear to be back on the 2024 menu following Friday’s softer-than-expected jobs report, fueling gains for all three major stock indexes last week. With the report calming worries that inflation is ticking back up, investors now project a 50% likelihood that the Federal Reserve will reduce rates in September.

Coinbase is benefiting from the hype around new bitcoin ETFs. The crypto exchange reported a $1.2 billion quarterly profit last week, and net revenue rose by 115%.

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APRIL 2024: US Hiring Slows

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Job growth slowed and unemployment ticked higher last month, marking a break from a string of data showing surprising strength in the labor market.

U.S. employers added a seasonally adjusted 175,00 jobs in April, the Labor Department reported on Friday. That was far less than in March, when gains exceeded 300,000, and also below what economists had expected. The unemployment rate ticked up to 3.9% from March’s 3.8%.

According to the WSJ, wages also rose less than anticipated, increasing 3.9% from a year earlier after rising 4.1% in March.

Friday’s report today is sure to stir immediate debate among economists and investors about whether the labor market is merely cooling in a welcome fashion or starting to show more serious strains under the pressure of higher interest rates.

Treasury yields, which largely reflect investors’ expectations for short-term rates set by the Federal Reserve, fell after the report. The yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note was 4.471% in recent trading, according to Tradeweb, down from 4.569% Thursday.

Stock futures climbed, suggesting investors were pleased with the data, which could increase optimism about the outlook for inflation.

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DAILY UPDATE: The CHIPS and Science Act & the FOMC as Stocks Edge Higher

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It’ll be a big week for hot takes on the US economy, after the Federal Reserve meeting Tuesday and Wednesday and the April jobs report dropping Friday. Because inflation has been sticking around, the FOMC is expected to hold interest rates steady at this meeting and for the foreseeable future. On the jobs front, economists are projecting another strong month for employment growth.

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In 2022, with bipartisan support, Congress passed the CHIPS and Science Act, an ambitious plan to juice domestic manufacturing of a product vital to national security: semiconductors. Two years later, the government has doled out more than half of the CHIPS Act’s $39 billion in incentives. According to the Financial Times

  • Chip companies and their suppliers have announced US investments of $327 billion over the next 10 years, per the Semiconductor Industry Association.
  • Construction of manufacturing facilities for computing and electronics devices has jumped 15x, government data shows.
  • By 2030, the US will likely produce around 20% of the world’s most advanced chips, according to USCommerce Secretary Gina Raimondo. Right now, it’s making 0%.

The proposed factories are massive and could transform regional economies. Micron, which received $6.1 billion in federal grants last week, plans to invest $100 billion in a manufacturing campus near Syracuse.

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Here’s where the major benchmarks ended:

  • The S&P 500® index (SPX) rose 16.21 points (0.3%) to 5,116.17, its highest close in over two weeks; the Dow Jones Industrial Average® ($DJI) gained 146.43 points (0.4%) to 38,386.09, the NASDAQ Composite® ($COMP) advanced 55.18 points (0.4%) to 15,983.08.
  • The 10-year Treasury note yield (TNX) fell more than 5 basis points to 4.616%.
  • The CBOE Volatility Index® (VIX) declined 0.36 to  14.67.

Communication services shares were among the market’s weakest performers Monday, reversing last Friday’s upswing as Alphabet (GOOGL) dropped more than 3% and Meta Platforms (META) lost 2.4%. Banks and retailers were also soft. The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index (SOX) climbed for the sixth-straight day and ended near a three-week high even though its biggest member, Nvidia (NVDA), ended little changed.

In other markets, the U.S. Dollar Index ($DXY) faded from early gains but is still up about 1% in April, driven by expectations domestic rates will remain high. “The U.S. dollar’s strength continues to reflect the relative strength of the economy and the wide interest rate differentials between the United States and other major developed markets,” Schwab Center for Financial Research analysts said in a report.

Despite last week’s strength, the S&P 500 index and the NASAQ Composite are still down 2.6% and 2.4%, respectively, for April and on track to break five-month winning streaks.

CITE: https://tinyurl.com/tj8smmes

Humana expects to exit Medicare Advantage (MA) markets in 2025, company executives told investors. The company reported its first quarter earnings April 24th. Humana posted $741 million in net income in the first quarter of 2024, beating investor expectations, but pulled its 2025 earnings guidance. 

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DAILY UPDATE: Warm Inflation Mixes Stocks

By Staff Reporters

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DEFINITION: Creeping, or mild, inflation occurs when prices rise slowly. According to the Federal Reserve, when prices increase by 2% or less, it benefits economic growth. This kind of mild inflation makes consumers expect that prices will keep going up, which boosts demand.

And so, inflation was a bit warmer last month as consumer prices rose 3.2% in February, the Labor Department just reported, up from the 3.1% that economists expected. That marks the second straight month that inflation came in higher than forecast. The data reinforces the Fed’s position to wait until inflation is tamed before cutting interest rates. Still, the central bank is widely expected to cut rates sometime later this year despite yesterday’s less-than-ideal report. It will meet next week to continue deliberations on a potential rate reduction.

CITE: https://www.r2library.com/Resource

Here’s where the major benchmarks ended:

  • The S&P 500® index (SPX) fell 9.96 points (0.2%) to 5,165.31; the Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 37.83 points (0.1%) to 39,043.32; the NASDAQ Composite® (COMP) declined 87.87 points (0.5%) to 16,177.77.
  • The 10-year Treasury note yield (TNX) rose almost 4 basis points to 4.192%.
  • The CBOE Volatility Index® (VIX) fell slightly to 13.75. 

Energy shares were among the market’s strongest performers Wednesday behind gains in crude oil prices. Brent crude futures (/BZ), the global benchmark, rose above $84 to end at their highest level since early November after Ukrainian strikes on oil refineries in Russia stirred concern over supply disruptions. The S&P Energy Index ($SP500#10) jumped 1.5% and reached its highest level since late October, while the S&P 500 Materials Index ($SP500#15) rose almost 1% and ended at a record high.

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DAILY UPDATE: Inflation Data Pending

By Staff Reporters

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Key inflation data incoming: February’s consumer price index report on Tuesday will provide fresh data to help the Fed decide when to lower interest rates. Last week, Chair Jerome Powell said he needed “just a bit more evidence” that inflation was coming back down to normal levels before reducing rates, though “we’re not far from it,” he acknowledged.

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DAILY UPDATE: Nike Stock Down but US Debt Burden Up Per Household

By Staff Reporters

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Nike is planning to restructure and lay off 2% of its staff, more than 1,500 people, as consumers pull back on spending.

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If the total U.S. debt were divided by every household in the country, each household would get about $252,000, according to a September tweet from The Kobeissi Letter.

And, Jerome Powell, the Chair of the Federal Reserve, shared his concerns regarding the fiscal direction of the United States during a “60 Minutes” interview with Scott Pelley. 

Powell said, “The U.S. is on an unsustainable fiscal path,” emphasizing that the growth of the national debt is outstripping the growth of the economy. 

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DAILY UPDATE: New CDC Covid-19 Guidelines as the Stock Markets Go Lower

By Staff Reporters

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The CDC may update Covid-19 isolation guidelines from five days to 24 hours if an individual is fever-free without medication—standardizing the protocol for the disease with the same rule for the flu and RSV. (the New York Times)

Here’s where the major benchmarks ended:

Stocks slumped into the long weekend yesterday, snapping a five-week weekly winning streak when they fell in the wake of wholesale price data that shows inflation is probably not as tamed as the Fed would like it to be. But Coinbase gave the latest indication that the crypto winter has thawed. The crypto exchange’s stock rose after it reported its first quarterly profit in two years.

  • The S&P 500 index fell 24.16 points (0.5%) to 5,005.57, down 0.4% for the week; the Dow Jones Industrial Average® (DJI) lost 145.13 points (0.4%) to 38,627.99, down 0.1% for the week; the NASDAQ Composite® (COMP) declined 130.52 points (0.8%) to 15,775.65, down 1.3% for the week.
  • The 10-year Treasury note yield (TNX) rose over 4 basis points to 4.285%.
  • The CBOE Volatility Index® (VIX) rose 0.23 to 14.24.

Communications services and transportation shares were among the market’s weakest performers Friday, while energy companies firmed behind strength in crude oil futures. The small-cap Russell 2000® Index (RUT) fell 1.4% Friday but still ended the week with a gain of 1.1%, its second straight weekly advance.

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DAILY UPDATE: Stocks Markets Collapse!

By Staff Reporters

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Off-the-charts inflation may be a distant 2022 phenomenon, but we’re not entirely over it. Price growth is still not back to levels that would satisfy Jerome Powell, and shoppers continue to deal with the fallout. Prices grew faster than economists expected last month, according to the consumer price index data the government released yesterday.

They climbed 0.3% in January (slightly more than in December) and 3.1% from a year prior. Excluding food and energy prices, January’s inflation was 0.4%, a bit over December’s reading, and 3.9% more than the prior January. And we point out that things aren’t so bad, since inflation isn’t too far from the Fed’s 2% annual target. But shoppers might argue that just because prices are growing more slowly doesn’t mean things are costing them less.

Here’s where the major benchmarks ended:

  • The S&P 500® index (SPX) fell 68.67 points (1.4%) to 4,953.17, its lowest close since February 5; the Dow Jones Industrial Average lost 524.63 points (1.4%) to 38,272.75; the NASDAQ Composite® (COMP) dropped 286.94 points (1.8%) to 15,655.60.
  • The 10-year Treasury note yield gained nearly 15 basis points to 4.316%.
  • The CBOE Volatility Index® (VIX) rose 1.89 to 15.82.

Bank shares were among the worst performers Tuesday amid concerns the CPI numbers suggested the Fed will maintain a higher-for-longer interest rate tack that could crimp lenders’ margins. The KBW Regional Banking Index (KRX) plunged 4.5%. Small-cap stocks, another group sensitive to interest rates, also fell sharply, with the Russell 2000® Index (RUT) sinking 4%.

In other markets, the U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) rallied about 0.7% to its strongest level in nearly three months, reflecting expectations interest rates will remain elevated.

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DAILY UPDATE: ARK and Palantir Growth

By Staff Reporters

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Wall Street eyes earnings, inflation report: It’s another big earnings week with Shopify, Coca-Cola, Airbnb, Coinbase, and Crocs among the companies scheduled to report. Investors will also be locked into tomorrow’s consumer price index report, which is expected to show more good news about inflation and raise hopes of a Fed rate cut.

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Cathie Wood and her team have purchased over $160 million worth of Tesla stock since the start of the year. Wood’s flagship fund, the ARK Innovation ETF (NYSEMKT: ARKK), now owns about $640 million of Tesla stock, making the company the fund’s second-largest holding behind Coinbase.

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Palantir reported 20% revenue growth to $608.4 million, ahead of the consensus at $602.4 million. Once again, the company delivered strong profitability with its fifth straight quarter of profitability according to generally accepted accounting principles (GAAP), coming in at $93 million, or a 15% profit margin.

The company experienced particularly strong growth in its U.S. commercial segment, where revenue was up 70% to $131 million, making up nearly a quarter of total sales. U.S. commercial total contract value jumped 107% to $343 million, and for 2024, it forecast 40% growth in U.S. commercial revenue to at least $640 million, showing that companies are starting to adopt an Automated Investment Plan.

On the bottom line, adjusted earnings per share doubled to $0.08, beating analyst estimates, as the company nearly held operating expenses flat once again, and guidance was solid as well.

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DAILY UPDATE: Impending C.P.I. and UPS

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US Economists just polled by The Wall Street Journal forecast a mild 0.2% in increase in consumer prices in the first month of 2024. The inflation rate in the past 12 months would decelerate to 2.9% from a prior 3.4%. If forecasters are right, it would mark the first time the CPI has fallen below 3% in almost three years.

The drama in the report, if there’s any, is likely to come from the more closely followed core CPI that omits food and energy prices. The core rate is viewed as a better predictor of future inflation. Wall Street expects the core rate to rise 0.3% — the upper limit of what the Fed would find tolerable in the short run. The 12-month increase in the core rate could also dip to 3.7% from 3.9%.

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UPS, the shipping giant, which forecast weak demand for parcel delivery in 2024, has said it plans to lay off 12,000 employees to save $1 billion in costs. It’s also mulling a sale of its Coyote brokerage unit.

This shocking announcement was made on January 30th and comes just six months after unionized UPS workers landed a “lucrative” new labor deal, which will see delivery drivers earning an average of $170,000 in annual pay and benefits by the end of the five years. “2023 was a unique, and quite candidly, difficult and disappointing year,” said UPS CEO Carol Tomé during the company’s earnings call. “We experienced declines in volume, revenue and operating profits and all three of our business segments.”

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DAILY UPDATE: Powell Speaks and the Stock Markets Tumble

By Staff Reporters

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As Jerome Powell goes, so goes the market. Stocks tumbled yesterday after Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell went on 60 Minutes over the weekend and said he’s in no rush to cut interest rates. Meanwhile, shares of Estée Lauder jumped ~12% after the cosmetics company announced it was laying off 5% of its employees amid weak demand in Asia.

Here’s where the major benchmarks ended:

  • The S&P 500 index fell 15.80 points (0.3%) to 4,942.81; the Dow Jones Industrial Average dropped 274.30 points (0.7%) to 38,380.12; the NASDAQ Composite® (COMP) declined 31.28 points (0.2%) to 15,597.68.
  • The 10-year Treasury note yield surged nearly 14 basis points to 4.166%.
  • The CBOE Volatility Index® (VIX) fell 0.18 to 13.67.

Materials and real estate sector shares were among the market’s weakest performers Monday, and banks and utilities were also under pressure. Semiconductors were one of the few sectors to post gains. In other markets, the U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) strengthened to its highest level since mid-November amid expectations interest rates will remain elevated. 

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BUSINESS START-UPS: Innovative Disruption is Going Down!

GOOD-BYE VENTURE CAPITAL

By Staff Reporters

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DEFINITION: Venture capital (VC) is a form of private equity and a type of financing that investors provide to start-up companies and small businesses that are believed to have long term growth potential. Venture capital generally comes from well-off investors, investment banks, and any other financial institutions. Venture capital doesn’t always have to be money. In fact, it often comes as technical or managerial expertise. VC is typically allocated to small companies with exceptional growth potential or to those that grow quickly and appear poised to continue to expand.

CITE: https://www.r2library.com/Resource/Title/082610254

DEFINITION: Disruptive innovation is a business that creates a new market or value network, or enters at the bottom of an existing market and eventually displaces established market-leading firms, products, and alliances. The term, “disruptive innovation” was popularized by the American academic Clayton Christensen and his collaborators beginning in 1995, but the concept had been previously described in Richard N. Foster‘s book “Innovation: The Attacker’s Advantage” and in the paper Strategic Responses to Technological Threats.

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Start-Ups and industry disruptors: Here are just a few of the recent collapses, as per the New York Times:

  • WeWork, which raised over $11 billion as a private startup, went bankrupt earlier this fall.
  • Hopin, the virtual events startup that rode a Covid Virus wave to a $7.6 billion valuation, sold its primary business units for $15 million.
  • The e-scooter company Bird, which became the fastest startup ever to land a $1 billion valuation, was de-listed from the NYSE and is now worth $7 million.
  • We [Don’t] Work: https://medicalexecutivepost.com/2023/11/07/wework-officially-bankrupt/

Overall, more than 3,200 private venture-capital backed US startups that have collectively raised $27.2 billion have gone out of business this year, according to the New York Times and PitchBook. So, why are the disruptors doing down?

MORE: https://www.cnbc.com/2021/05/25/these-are-the-2021-cnbc-disruptor-50-companies.html

Well, the Federal Reserve raised interest rates to a 22-year high. The cost of capital has become far more expensive, and investments that are less risky have gotten more attractive. This year has been particularly bad.

It’s a sad and instantaneous end to the golden Venture Capital years fueled by low interest rates and the growth of the mobile interne. Investment in US startups jumped by 8x between 2012 and 2022 to $344 billion dollars.

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Inflation Up a Bit While the SEC Approves Spot Bitcoin ETFs

By Staff Reporters

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Inflation climbed from 3.1% to 3.4% in December, a sign the Federal Reserve will continue to have to wrestle consumer price growth down to its desired 2% level. Forecasts had been for a reading of 3.2%.

On a monthly basis, inflation hit 0.3%, while core inflation, which strips away the more volatile costs of food and energy, was 3.9%, down from 4% in November but ahead of forecasts for a reading of 3.8%.

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The Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) officially approved spot bitcoin ETFs yesterday for the first time. The 11 exchange-traded funds will let old-school investors and bitcoin enthusiasts alike access the world’s biggest cryptocurrency without having to keep a long password for a crypto wallet.

CITE: https://www.r2library.com/Resource

The long-awaited win for the beleaguered crypto industry came after a false start on Tuesday, when someone hacked the agency’s X account that…didn’t have two-factor authentication enabled…and spuriously said the ETFs had been approved.

Crypto investors have been asking for spot bitcoin ETFs since roughly 2013, but the SEC has historically grimaced at the idea of inviting such a volatile asset into the financial system, concerned that a bitcoin ETF could be easily manipulated. Trading could begin as early as today.

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DAILY UPDATE: Goldman Sachs Speaks as the Stock Markets Rise

By Staff Reporters

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The Federal Reserve’s pivot last week to an easier monetary policy made many investors more bullish toward stocks. You can count Goldman Sachs among them. It has raised its year-end 2024 target for the S&P to 5,100 from 4,700. The new forecast represents an 8% increase from 4,740 on Dec. 18. Goldman has a three-month target of 4,800 and a six-month target of 4,900.

Here is where the major benchmarks ended:

Here’s where the major benchmarks ended:

  • The S&P 500 index was up 21.37 points (0.5%) at 4,740.56; the Dow Jones Industrial Average was up 0.86 points at 37,306.02; the NASDAQ Composite was up 90.89 points (0.6%) at 14,904.81.
  • The 10-year Treasury note yield (TNX) was up about 2 basis points at 3.946%.
  • The CBOE® Volatility Index (VIX) was up 0.25 at 12.53.

Energy shares were among Monday’s strongest performers behind a rally in WTI Crude Oil futures (/CL), which jumped 1.7% to end at a two-week high amid concern over supply disruptions following attacks on ships in the Red Sea.

Communication services and consumer staples were also firm. Financials gave back some of last week’s sharp gains, with the KBW Bank Index (BKX) down nearly 1%.

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DAILY UPDATE: Healthcare Artificial Intelligence Safety as the DJIA Sets Record

By Staff Reporters

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SPONSOR: http://www.MarcinkoAssociates.com

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Twenty-eight healthcare companies, including CVS Health , are signing U.S. President Joe Biden’s voluntary commitments aimed at ensuring the safe development of artificial intelligence (AI), a White House official said yesterday. The commitments by healthcare providers and payers follow those of 15 leading AI companies, including Google, OpenAI and OpenAI partner Microsoft to develop AI healthcare models responsibly.

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Health insurance company Humana is being accused of allegedly wrongfully denying care to elderly patients, who are enrolled in Medicare Advantage Plans, using an augmented intelligence model “to override” physicians’ orders on “necessary care patients require,” according to a new lawsuit.

The lawsuit, filed by two Humana Medicare Advantage Plan customers on December th 12 in Kentucky, claims that Humana uses an AI model called nH Predict, and it allegedly has a high error rate. And allegedly, despite knowing that it’s inaccurate, the company still uses it.

Related: CVS, Kroger and Rite Aid face unsettling medical privacy concerns

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Here is where the major benchmarks ended:

The S&P 500 index was up 12.46 points (0.3%) at 4,719.55; the Dow Jones Industrial Average was up 158.11 points (0.4%) at 37,248.35; the NASDAQ Composite® (COMP) was up 27.59 points (0.2%) at 14,761.56.

  • The 10-year Treasury note yield (TNX) was down about 11 basis points at 3.923%, falling under 4% for the first time since early August.
  • The CBOE® Volatility Index (VIX) was up 0.25 at 12.44.

Financial shares remained among the market’s strongest post-FOMC gainers, reflecting ideas that lower interest rates will boost profit margins for banks. Goldman Sachs (GS) rallied nearly 6%, the second-best gain among Dow companies, and hit a 23-month high. The KBW Bank Index (BKX), which includes major companies like Bank of America (BAC) and Citigroup (C) as well as several regional lenders, surged 5% to a nine-month high.

Also, the small-cap Russell 2000® Index (RUT) continued to outgain large-cap counterparts, rising 2.7% to a 4 ½-month high.

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2024: FOMC Interest Rate Cuts?

By Staff Reporters

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The Dow hit an all-time high yesterday after the Federal Reserve hinted at plans to make multiple rate cuts next year. Not having such a good day was Pfizer, which touched a 10-year low after releasing disappointing projections for 2024 because people just aren’t buying Covid products like they used to.

CITE: https://www.r2library.com/Resource/Title/082610254

Fed rate cuts may come in threes next year

The Federal Reserve had investors popping bottles yesterday, not just because it made the expected move of holding interest rates steady for now but also for signaling that there may be multiple interest rate cuts in 2024. Most Fed officials penciled in three quarter-percentage-point cuts in their projections. Fed Chair Jerome Powell said inflation had “eased” but still did his best to keep everyone from getting too excited, saying, “No one is declaring victory. That would be premature.” Even so, markets started pricing in even more aggressive cuts than the projections.

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DAILY UPDATE: DJIA Records a High as Treasury Yields Drop

By Staff Reporters

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MANY THANKS E.R. HEROES

The holidays can be a stressful time for many, especially emergency healthcare workers, as Emergency Departments and ERs tend to get crowded. Holiday-related injuries spike in December, from slipping in the snow or falling while decorating to overindulging in holiday cocktails. So, to all the emergency healthcare providers working on holidays this year, the ME-P thanks you very much.

Here’s where the major benchmarks ended:

  • The S&P 500 index was up 63.39 points (1.4%) at 4,707.09; the Dow Jones Industrial Average was up 512.30 points (1.4%) at 37,090.24; the NASDAQ Composite was up 200.57 points (1.4%) at 14,733.96.
  • The 10-year Treasury note yield (TNX) was down about 18 basis points at 4.024%.
  • The CBOE® Volatility Index (VIX) was up 0.14 at 12.21.

Financial shares led Wednesday’s gainers, reflecting ideas that lower interest rates will boost profit margins for banks. The KBW Regional Banking Index (KRX) surged nearly 6% and ended at its highest level in over four months. The Fed’s outlook for slower growth in 2024, but no recession, also appeared to drive optimism among smaller companies, which are considered to have greater exposure to economic downturns. The small-cap Russell 2000® Index (RUT) outpaced its bigger counterparts, gaining 3.5% and ending at a four-month high.

Treasury yields fell sharply, with the 10-year note dropping to a four-month low just above 4%.

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U.S. ECONOMY: Perhaps a “Soft Landing” After All?

YET- HEALTH CARE IS GROWING!

By Staff Reporters

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The US economy is looking like it could avoid a downturn and achieve a soft landing after all. US employers added a more-than-expected 199,000 workers to their payrolls last month, the Bureau of Labor Statistics said recently. The solid result calmed many analysts’ fears that a steeper economic slowdown is imminent due to the Federal Reserve’s earlier interest rate hikes. And, it brings us closer to the coveted “soft landing” scenario, in which the Fed tames inflation on the economy. For example:

  • The unemployment rate unexpectedly ticked down for the first time since July, to 3.7%.
  • Average hourly pay increased by 0.4% and is now up 4% for the year, beating the projected pace of annual price growth.
  • But the job market isn’t quite what it used to be

Last month’s 199-k jobs created were below the average of 240,000 added in the preceding 12 months. Plus, November hiring was confined to just a handful of industries:

  • Healthcare and the government were responsible for two-thirds of the headcount growth, adding 77,000 and 49,000 jobs, respectively.
  • The manufacturing sector gained 28,000 workers—but that was largely due to folks returning to work after striking against the Big Three automakers.
  • CITE: https://www.r2library.com/Resource/Title/082610254

Finally, in another sign that employers might be pulling back from on-boarding new people, the Labor Department reported earlier this week that job openings in late October were at their lowest since March 2021.

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DAILY UPDATE: Health Care, FOMC and the Tepid Markets

By Staff Reporters

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SPONSOR: http://www.MarcinkoAssociates.com

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In healthcare, legislators could vote next week on a major health reform package that includes a ban on spread pricing in Medicaid and a push toward site-neutral payments.


In more news from the Hill, a bipartisan bill was introduced that seeks to cancel a 3.4% Medicare pay cut to docs, which has drawn plenty of ire from the industry.

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The final FOMC meeting of the year will take place this week, and like most work meetings in mid-December, not a whole lot is going to happen. Chair Jerome Powell is widely expected to leave interest rates unchanged as inflation continues its descent to a 2% target. But 2024 planning is in full swing, and investors are desperate to learn when the Federal Reserve thinks it will need to cut rates next year.

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Here is where the major stock index benchmarks ended:

  • The S&P 500 index was up 18.07 points (0.4%) at 4,622.44; the Dow Jones Industrial Average® (DJI) was up 157.06 points (0.4%) at 36,404.93; the NASDAQ Composite was up 28.51 points (0.2%) at 14,432.49.
  • The 10-year Treasury note yield (TNX) was little-changed at 4.239%.
  • The CBOE® Volatility Index (VIX) was up 0.28 at 12.63.

In addition to retailers, semiconductor company shares also posted outsized gains Monday, boosted in part by a jump of nearly 10% in Broadcom (AVGO). The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index (SOX) gained more than 3% and ended near a two-year high. Transportation companies were also strong.

In other markets, Natural Gas futures (/NG) plunged more than 6% to a six-month low, reflecting warmer-than-normal U.S. temperatures and excess supplies.

Finally, the so-called Magnificent Seven stocks of Apple, Microsoft, Alphabet, Amazon.com, Nvidia, Tesla and Meta Platforms each fell at least 0.8%. Meta led the declines, dropping 2.2%. But only one out of 11 S&P 500 sectors fell. Even the information technology sub-index ticked higher, reflecting gains outside of the largest companies in the sector.

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BONDS: Are Best Right Now?

By Staff Reporters

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The bond market just finished its best month since 1985, according to the Financial Times, with investor optimism creating a surge in bond prices and a plunge in yields (reminder: they move in opposite directions). The yield on the benchmark 10-year US Treasury note dipped below 4.3% for the first time since September. And other economic measures are looking good:

  • The bond rally spilled over to stocks, where the S&P 500 and Dow just clinched their best months since July 2022 and October 2022, respectively.
  • Mortgage rates dropped for the fifth consecutive week, to 7.22%.

Traders are optimistic that the FOMC may be done hiking interest rates. With recent data showing both consumer spending and the job market cooling down—but not too much—economists see the once-aspirational economic soft landing as achievable, which is great news for Wall Street and to avoid a recession).

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JEROME POWELL: Speaks On “Premature” Interest Rate Cuts

By Staff Reporters

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What Is Money Factor for SMB? : On Auto Monthly Lease Payment

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With the Fed’s aggressive rate hikes to curb inflation looking like they’ve finally come to an end thanks to encouraging data on prices falling, investors are starting to look forward to when the central bankers start slashing rates again.

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But Jerome Powell sought to pour some cold water on the rate cut hype cycle during a speech at Spelman College in Atlanta, Georgia yesterday, saying that it was too soon “to speculate on when policy might ease.” However, investors still think he’ll come around: Markets are putting the odds that the Fed will cut rates in March above 50% and are totally convinced it’ll happen by May, according to Bloomberg.

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INFLATION: Cools Down!

By Staff Reporters

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CITE: https://www.r2library.com/Resource

Inflation continues to cool

The Fed’s preferred inflation measure increased 3% in October, down from 3.4% in September and getting closer to the central bank’s much-ballyhooed target of 2%. A drop in gas prices—down 4.9% from the previous month—was a major factor. Increases in core prices, which strip out food and energy costs, also slowed last month. In the last six months, core inflation has grown at a 2.5% annual rate—down significantly from 5.1% last year.

The news means the Fed will likely keep interest rates unchanged at its final 2023 meeting on December 12t and 13th.

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