CURRENCY: Carried Orientated

Posted on January 12, 2025 by Dr. David Edward Marcinko MBA MEd CMP™

By Staff Reporters

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Carry-oriented currencies are higher-yielding currencies of countries where interest rates are generally higher than those of countries with lower-yielding currencies.

These higher-yielding currencies are targeted for “carry trades,” where investors borrow money in a low-interest rate currency and invest in a higher yielding currency, potentially profiting from the difference in interest rates.

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NOTIONAL Value

Posted on January 12, 2025 by Dr. David Edward Marcinko MBA MEd CMP™

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Notional Value is the face value or principal amount that an investor holds of a debt security.

This value is not subject to market pricing.

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DEMAGOGUES: Value and Growth Stocks

Posted on January 12, 2025 by Dr. David Edward Marcinko MBA MEd CMP™

SPECIAL REPORT

By Vitaliy Katsenelson CFA

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About Value & Growth Demagogues
You can listen to a professional narration of this article on iTunes & online.
I have a problem with both growth and value demagogues.

Growth demagogues will argue that valuation is irrelevant for high-growth companies because the price you pay for growth doesn’t matter. They usually say this after a very extended move in growth stocks, where these investors look like gods that walk on water. They call value investors “accountants.”

The price you pay matters (this is not a new message). As we’ve discussed in the past, if you bought great, high-growth companies near the end of the Nifty Fifty bubble in the 1960s or near the end of the dotcom bubble in the 1990s, it took more than a decade to break even (after first struggling through double-digit losses).

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ADAPTATION Release

Posted on January 11, 2025 by Dr. David Edward Marcinko MBA MEd CMP™

By Staff Reporters

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Activation due to release from adaptation = Extra activation caused by stimulus change = (Response to the two different stimuli paired together) – (Response to same stimuli presented without the change) E.g. (1/4 + 4/1) – (1/1 + 4/4) To look for adaptation paralleling same/diff perception. Make a contrast weighting each adaptation release value by the subject’s behavioural responses on that part of the same/different curve. Rajeev Raizada – UW MRI talk, Oct

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Release from Adaptation is the joy you feel when something changes after becoming accustomed to it. It’s like the relief of a cool breeze after a hot day. Our brains get used to stimuli, making them less noticeable over time. When there’s a change, it’s like hitting the refresh button on our senses.

This is why, according to colleague Dan Ariely PhD, novelty feels so exciting and routine can become dull. So, inject some variety into your life to keep things fresh and enjoy the small releases from adaptation.

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CREDIT: Much About Agreements!

Posted on January 11, 2025 by Dr. David Edward Marcinko MBA MEd CMP™

By Staff Reporters

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Credit report with score on a desk

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Credit analysis is a form of financial analysis used primarily to determine the financial strength of the issuer of a security, and the ability of that issuer to provide timely payment of interest and principal to investors in the issuer’s debt securities. Credit analysis is typically an important component of security analysis and selection in credit-sensitive bond sectors such as the corporate bond market and the municipal bond market.

Credit default swap index (CDX) is a credit derivative, based on a basket of CDS, which can be used to hedge credit risk or speculate on changes in credit quality.

Credit default swaps (CDS) are credit derivative contracts between two counterparties that can be used to hedge credit risk or speculate on changes in the credit quality of a corporation or government entity.

Credit quality reflects the financial strength of the issuer of a security, and the ability of that issuer to provide timely payment of interest and principal to investors in the issuer’s securities. Common measurements of credit quality include the credit ratings provided by credit rating agencies such as Standard & Poor’s and Moody’s. Credit quality and credit quality perceptions are a key component of the daily market pricing of fixed-income securities, along with maturity, inflation expectations and interest rate levels.

Credit Rating Agency (CRA) is a company that assigns credit ratings for issuers of certain types of debt obligations as well as the debt instruments themselves. In the United States, the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) permits investment banks and broker-dealers to use credit ratings from “Nationally Recognized Statistical Rating Organizations” (NRSRO) for similar purposes. As of January 2012, nine organizations were designated as NRSROs, including the “Big Three” which are Standard and Poor’s, Moody’s Investor Services and Fitch Ratings.

Credit rating downgrade, by a credit rating agency (Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s or Fitch) means reducing its credit rating for a debt issuer and/or security. This is based on the agency’s evaluation, indicating, to the agency, a decline in the issuer’s financial stability, increasing the possibility of default. A downgrade should not to be confused with a default; a debt security can be downgraded without defaulting. And, conversely, a debt issuer can suddenly default without being downgraded first–credit ratings and credit rating agencies are not infallible.

Credit ratings are measurements of credit quality provided by credit rating agencies. Those provided by Standard & Poor’s typically are the most widely quoted and distributed, and range from AAA (highest quality; perceived as least likely to default) down to D (in default). Securities and issuers rated AAA to BBB are considered/perceived to be “investment-grade”; those below BBB are considered/perceived to be non-investment-grade or more speculative.

Credit risk is the inability or perceived inability of the issuers of debt securities to make interest and principal payments will cause the value of those securities to decrease. Changes in the credit ratings of debt securities could have a similar effect.

Credit Risk Transfer Securities (CRTS) are unsecured obligations of the GSEs (Government Sponsored Enterprises). Although cash flows are linked to prepays and defaults of the reference mortgage loans, the securities are unsecured loans, backed by general credit rather than by specified assets.

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COMPETITION Paradox

Posted on January 10, 2025 by Dr. David Edward Marcinko MBA MEd CMP™

By Staff Reporters

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Definition of the Paradox of Competition

The Paradox of Competition refers to the complex and often counterintuitive effects competitive behaviors can have within markets and industries. Generally, competition is seen as a positive force that drives innovation, lowers prices, and improves quality and choice for consumers. However, the paradox lies in the fact that intense competition can sometimes lead to negative outcomes, such as diminished profitability for companies, reduced incentives to innovate, and the potential for a race to the bottom in terms of quality and sustainability.

According to colleague Dan Ariely PhD, understanding the nuances of the Paradox of Competition reveals the complexity of market dynamics and the importance of strategic, informed approaches to competition, both from businesses and regulators.

This paradox challenges the conventional wisdom that competition is universally beneficial, highlighting the need for a more nuanced view of how competitive forces shape markets and societies.

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IBBOTSON: Intermediate-Term Treasuries Index

Posted on January 10, 2025 by Dr. David Edward Marcinko MBA MEd CMP™

By Staff Reporters

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Ibbotson Intermediate-Term Treasuries Index constructed by Ibbotson Associates using long-term historical data. The index calculates total returns from historical index prices and calculates income using a coupon accrual method.

The index replicates intermediate-term bond performance by selecting the Treasury bond with maturity closest to five years, holds it for the calendar year, then rolls to the next five-year bond.

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SUSTAINABILITY Defined

Posted on January 9, 2025 by Dr. David Edward Marcinko MBA MEd CMP™

By Staff Reporters

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Sustainability focuses on meeting the needs of the present without compromising the ability of future generations to meet their needs. There are many different approaches to Sustainability, with motives varying from positive societal impact, to wanting to achieve competitive financial results, or both.

Methods of sustainable investing include active share ownership, integration of ESG factors, thematic investing, impact investing and exclusion among others.

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SMISHING: Beware Scams!

Posted on January 8, 2025 by Dr. David Edward Marcinko MBA MEd CMP™

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Smishing is a form of phishing that uses Short Message Service (SMS), commonly known as text messages, instead of email. Typically, the scammer poses as a legitimate institution, such as a bank, a service provider or a reputed company. The text message they send creates a sense of urgency or threatens consequences if the victim doesn’t respond immediately. It downloads malware on the phone or includes a link to a fraudulent website designed to look like the legitimate organization’s site. When victims reach that site they are tricked into entering their personal information.

Seven Types of Smishing Scams

1. Impersonation Scams: The attacker pretends to be a known organization or individual. The attack could be via a message pretending to be from a bank, government agency or a reputable company.
2. Tech Support Scams: Attackers pose as representatives from tech companies, claiming that the victim’s device or account has been compromised and that they need sensitive data to fix the problem.
3. Account Suspension Scams: These messages claim that an account (bank account, social media or any other service) has been suspended and prompt the victim to verify their identity by providing sensitive information.
4. Missed Delivery Scams: Attackers send messages claiming that the victim has missed a package delivery, and they need to provide personal details or a fee to reschedule the delivery.
5. Prize or Lottery Scams: Messages claiming that the victim has won a prize or a lottery, and they need to provide personal details or make a payment to claim the winnings.
6. Charity Scams: In these attacks, scammers impersonate a charitable organization, asking for donations, usually following a large-scale disaster or during holiday seasons.
7. Malware Link Scams: Messages containing a link, which when clicked, installs malware on the victim’s device, allowing the attacker to steal information or gain control over the device.

Attackers are constantly innovating and finding new ways to exploit human trust, so it’s crucial to be skeptical of any unsolicited or unexpected message that asks for sensitive information or prompts to click a link.

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EARNED INCOME: Defined

Posted on January 8, 2025 by Dr. David Edward Marcinko MBA MEd CMP™

By Staff Reporters

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What Counts as ‘Earned Income’?

The IRS defines earned income as money you get for working, including the following:

  • Wages
  • Commissions
  • Bonuses
  • Tips
  • Honorariums for speaking, writing or taking part in a conference or convention
  • Self-employment income

Income that doesn’t qualify includes:

  • Taxable pension payments
  • Interest income
  • Dividends
  • Rental income
  • Alimony
  • Withdrawals from Roth IRAs or other non-taxable retirement accounts
  • Annuity income
  • Welfare benefits
  • Unemployment compensation
  • Worker’s compensation payments
  • Social Security income.

Cite: https://www.irs.gov/credits-deductions/individuals/earned-income-tax-credit/earned-income-and-earned-income-tax-credit-eitc-tables

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WILLIAM JEVONS Efficiency Paradox

Posted on January 7, 2025 by Dr. David Edward Marcinko MBA MEd CMP™

By Staff Reporters

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William S. Jevons Paradox suggests that increases in efficiency lead to even larger increases in demand; according to colleague Dan Ariely PhD.

The Jevons Paradox is when making something work better actually leads to using more of it, not less.

Imagine you have a really fast bike that makes you use less energy to speed up. Because it’s so good, you want to bike everywhere, even more than before. Now, even though your bike is better at saving energy, you end up using it so much that you may use even more energy overall

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INSTITUTE: Supply Management (ISM) Manufacturing Index

Posted on January 7, 2025 by Dr. David Edward Marcinko MBA MEd CMP™

By Staff Reporters

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Institute for Supply Management (ISM) Manufacturing Index. Now, published on a monthly basis, the ISM surveys more than 300 manufacturing firms on employment, production, new orders, supplier deliveries, and inventories.

A composite diffusion index of national manufacturing conditions is constructed, where readings above (below) 50 percent indicate an expanding (contracting) manufacturing sector.

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CONFABULATION Bias

Posted on January 6, 2025 by Dr. David Edward Marcinko MBA MEd CMP™

By Staff Reporters

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Confabulation Bias is the creation of false memories without the intent to deceive. Our brain fills in gaps, sometimes creating memories that feel real but are entirely fabricated.

According to colleague Dan Ariely PhD, this can happen especially when memory gaps are subconsciously filled to maintain coherence.

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MORALITY Priming

Posted on January 5, 2025 by Dr. David Edward Marcinko MBA MEd CMP™

By Staff Reporters

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Morality Priming refers to subtle reminders of ethical principles that can make us behave more responsibly. It’s like an internal nudge that brings our conscience to the surface.

And, according to colleague Dan Ariely PhD, by focusing on moral standards, people are often encouraged to act more honestly, even in small, everyday decisions.

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MAURICE ALLAIS: Behavioral Finance Paradox

Posted on January 5, 2025 by Dr. David Edward Marcinko MBA MEd CMP™

By Reporters

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For Question 1, people preferred Prospect A to prospect A , which means: (0.11) u( 1,000,000) > (0.10) u( 5,000,000) For Question 2, people preferred Prospect B to prospect B, which means: (0.10) u( 5,000,000) > (0.11) u( 1,000,000) Allais Paradox. shows that, individuals’ decisions can be inconsistent with Expected Utility Theory.

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Allais Paradox is a change in a possible outcome that is shared by different alternatives affects people’s choices among those alternatives, in contradiction with expected utility theory.

The Allais paradox is a choice problem designed by Maurice Allais 1953 to show an inconsistency of actual observed choices with the predictions of expected utility theory theory.

According to colleague Dan Ariely PhD, the Allais paradox demonstrates that individuals rarely make rational decisions consistently when required to do so immediately. The independence axiom of expected utility theory, which requires that the preferences of an individual should not change when altering two lotteries by equal proportions, was proven to be violated by the paradox.

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MONEY Supply in Circulation

Posted on January 4, 2025 by Dr. David Edward Marcinko MBA MEd CMP™

By Staff Reporters

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MONEY SUPPLY: The amount of money in circulation. The money supply measures
currently (1985) used by the Federal Reserve System are:


 M 1 – Currency in circulation + demand deposit + other check-type deposits. 35
 M2 – M 1 + savings and small denomination time deposits + overnight repurchase
agreements at commercial banks + overnight Eurodollars + money market mutual
fund shares.
 M3 – M2 + large-denomination time deposits (Jumbo CDs) + term repurchase
agreements.
 M4 – M3 + other liquid assets (such as term Eurodollars, bankers acceptances,
commercial paper, Treasury securities and U.S. Savings Bonds)

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BULLET Bond Structure

Posted on January 4, 2025 by Dr. David Edward Marcinko MBA MEd CMP™

By Staff Reporters

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A Bullet bond structure is a bond portfolio structure that clusters a portfolio’s bond maturities around a single maturity (usually an intermediate-term maturity).

This structure tends to perform best when the yield curve is moving from flat to steep (long-term rates are rising faster than short-term rates, or short-term rates are falling faster than long-term rates).

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DAILY UPDATE: Dental and Medical Record Data Breaches as Stocks Jump!

Posted on January 4, 2025 by Dr. David Edward Marcinko MBA MEd CMP™

MEDICAL EXECUTIVE-POST – TODAY’S NEWSLETTER BRIEFING

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Essays, Opinions and Curated News in Health Economics, Investing, Business, Management and Financial Planning for Physician Entrepreneurs and their Savvy Advisors and Consultants

“Serving Almost One Million Doctors, Financial Advisors and Medical Management Consultants Daily“

A Partner of the Institute of Medical Business Advisors , Inc.

http://www.MedicalBusinessAdvisors.com

SPONSORED BY: Marcinko & Associates, Inc.

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Daily Update Provided By Staff Reporters Since 2007.
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Your Referral Count -0-

Nvidia stock (NVDA) led gains among the “Magnificent Seven” tech stocks to start the new year after a group-wide sell-off in the last days of 2024. Shares of the AI chip-maker rose 4.5% Friday after gaining roughly 3% the prior day.

CITE: https://www.r2library.com/Resource

Stat: 18. That’s how many dental data breaches there were in the US in 2024. (Becker’s Dental + DSO Review)

CITE: https://tinyurl.com/2h47urt5

Quote: “If your credit card gets compromised, your bank will alert you, cancel it and send you get a new one. But your medical records have a long lifespan. They can be misused without detection for long periods of time, because it’s harder to identify malicious activity. That makes them very valuable.”—Geetha Thamilarasu, associate professor at the University of Washington Bothell, on why hackers want healthcare information (the Wall Street Journal)

CITE: https://tinyurl.com/tj8smmes

That upswing followed a 4% dip between Christmas Eve and New Year’s Eve as megacap tech stocks dropped across the board in the absence of a “Santa Claus” rally, where the stock market typically enjoys a surge between December 24th and January 2nd. Tesla (TSLA) stock plunged nearly 13% over that time frame, while Amazon (AMZN) and Microsoft (MSFT) dropped more than 4%. Meanwhile, Meta (META) and Google (GOOG) fell just under 4%, and Apple (AAPL) dropped 3%.

Even with its December decline, Nvidia shares still ended 2024 up more than 150%. Wall Street analysts have remained bullish on the stock, estimating shares will rise to roughly $173 over the next year from their current level of $138, according to Yahoo Finance data.

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IRS: Revenue Agent V. Revenue Officer

Posted on January 3, 2025 by Dr. David Edward Marcinko MBA MEd CMP™

By Staff Reporters

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What is a Revenue Agent?

IRS revenue agents are unarmed, civil agency employees that are skilled auditors who typically conduct in-person field audits. These are normally scheduled at the taxpayer’s home, place of business or accountant’s office where the organization’s financial books and records are located.

What is a Revenue Officer?

IRS revenue officers are unarmed civil agency employees whose duties include visiting households and businesses to help taxpayers resolve their account balances. Their job is to collect taxes that are delinquent and have not been paid to the IRS and to secure tax returns that are overdue from taxpayers.

The IRS currently has about 2,300 revenue officers working cases across the country. Revenue officers educate taxpayers on their tax filing and paying obligations and provide guidance and service on a wide range of financial issues to help the taxpayer resolve their tax issues. They also ensure taxpayers are aware of their rights under the law and provide them with quality customer service.

Confirming if it’s the IRS

Revenue officers and revenue agents are unarmed and carry two forms of official credentials with a serial number and their photo. Taxpayers have the right to see each of these credentials and can also request an additional method to verify their identification.

Remember, taxpayers should know they have a tax issue before these visits occur since multiple mailings occur. And, IRS-CI special agents are the only armed IRS personnel and always present their law enforcement credentials when conducting investigations.

Cite: https://www.irs.gov

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OUTCOME: Bias

Posted on January 3, 2025 by Dr. David Edward Marcinko MBA MEd CMP™

By Staff Reporters

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Outcome bias is judging a decision based on its result rather than the quality of the decision at the time it was made.

It’s like saying a bad poker play was smart because you won the hand. Or, a bad stock picker or financial advisor was good because the price went up!

According to psychologist and colleague Dan Ariely PhD, this bias ignores the process and focuses solely on the outcome. It’s why we celebrate lucky breaks and criticize thoughtful risks that didn’t pan out.

So, the next time you’re evaluating a decision, focus on the reasoning behind it, not just the end result.

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CULTURE: Donation Dependency

Posted on January 2, 2025 by Dr. David Edward Marcinko MBA MEd CMP™

By Anonymous

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When you keep donating without thinking it through, people can start relying on those donations more than building their own sustainable solutions. It can feel nice to help, but constant aid might discourage local initiatives. You want people to grow and thrive on their own, not just depend on outside help.

This is known as donation dependency.

Sometimes, consistent aid can become a crutch instead of a stepping stone. Communities may stop exploring ways to solve their own problems if help is always coming in from elsewhere. Encouraging self-reliance is crucial in ensuring your help leads to long-term benefits.

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K SHAPED: Economy and Recovery

Posted on January 2, 2025 by Dr. David Edward Marcinko MBA MEd CMP™

By Staff Reporters

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Understanding the K-shaped Economy

According to Olivia Voltaggio, in a V-shaped economy, things go down but then bounce back for everyone. In a K-shaped economy, the overall economy might go down. Only some parts of it recover, while others keep struggling.

In a K-shaped economy, people’s financial situations vary widely. Not everyone faces the same struggles. Lenders and financial institutions need to be flexible with strategy. They need to understand the different challenges their customers are dealing with.

Navigate with caution: The gaps in economic recovery highlight the importance of taking a careful, strategic approach.

How did we end up with a K-shaped recovery in 2024?

Inflation-driven price increases seem to be getting more stable. But, they may not reach the goal set by the government until 2026. This has made things more expensive for regular families.

For example, people with student loan debt had to start paying it back in October 2023. This was after a pandemic-induced grace period. Student loan repayment made budgeting harder. Borrowers might need to spend more on average than expected. For young adults (Gen Z), it could be even more.

Finally, more people are using credit cards because things are getting more expensive. Some are struggling to pay their credit card bills on time.

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LUCAS Paradox

Posted on December 31, 2024 by Dr. David Edward Marcinko MBA MEd CMP™

By Staff Reporters

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The Lucas Paradox occurs when capital is not flowing from developed countries to developing countries despite the fact that developing countries have lower levels of capital per worker, and therefore higher returns to capital.

According to Wikipedia, economic theory predicts that capital should flow from rich countries to poor countries, due to the effect of diminishing returns of capital. Poor countries have lower levels of capital per worker – which explains, in part, why they are poor. In poor countries, the scarcity of capital relative to labor should mean that the returns related to the infusion of capital are higher than in developed countries.

In response, savers in rich countries should look at poor countries as profitable places in which to invest. In reality, things do not seem to work that way. Surprisingly little capital flows from rich countries to poor countries. This puzzle was famously discussed in a paper by Robert Lucas PhD in 1990.

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CHINA: Li Keqiang Index

Posted on December 31, 2024 by Dr. David Edward Marcinko MBA MEd CMP™

By Staff Reporters

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The Li Keqiang Index was created in 2010 by The Economist and measure’s China’s economy using three indicators: railway cargo volume, electricity consumption and bank loans.

The index is seen as an alternative to official gross domestic product numbers released by the Chinese government.

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OPEN / CLOSED: Today and Tomorrow?

Posted on December 31, 2024 by Dr. David Edward Marcinko MBA MEd CMP™

By Staff Reporters

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Is the Stock Market Open or Closed on New Year’s Eve?

Bond markets will close early at 2 p.m. Eastern on Tuesday, while the New York Stock Exchange and the NASDAQ Stock Market will hold regular hours from 9:30 a.m. to 4 p.m. Eastern. Over-the-counter markets, where securities trade over a broker-dealer network rather than a major exchange, will keep normal hours.

Is the Stock Market Open or Closed on New Year’s Day?

Both the U.S. bond and stock markets will be closed in observance of New Year’s Day. Over-the-counter markets will be shut, too.

What About International Markets?

Foreign exchanges, such as the London Stock Exchange, the Euronext Paris, the Stock Exchange of Hong Kong, the Shanghai Stock Exchange, and the Tokyo Stock Exchange, will be closed on Wednesday, January 1st.

Will Banks and Post Offices Be Open?

Federal Reserve banks and United States Post Service locations will be closed in observance of New Year’s Day.

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PARADOXICAL: Persuasion

Posted on December 30, 2024 by Dr. David Edward Marcinko MBA MEd CMP™

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QUESTION: Ever tried convincing someone by arguing against your own point?

If so, that’s paradoxical persuasion. It’s like reverse psychology’s sophisticated cousin. By presenting the opposite argument, you make people defend your original point. It’s a mental judo move, using their own momentum against them. Next time you want someone to agree with you, try saying, “You’re right, maybe we shouldn’t get pizza.”

So, according to Dan Ariely PhD, watch as they passionately argue why pizza is, in fact, the best choice for dinner.

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MARKETS: Risk-On, Risk-Off and On-Off

Posted on December 30, 2024 by Dr. David Edward Marcinko MBA MEd CMP™

By Staff Reporters

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Risk-On

RO = Asset prices commonly follow the risk sentiment of the market. Investors look for changing sentiment through corporate earnings, macro-economic data, and global central bank action. An increase in the stock market or where stocks outperform bonds is said to be a risk-on environment.

Risk-on environments can be carried by expanding corporate earnings, optimistic economic outlook, accommodative central bank policies, and speculation. As the market displays strong influential fundamentals, investors perceive less risk about the market and its outlook.

Risk-Off

ROff = When stocks are selling off, and investors run for shelter to bonds or gold, the environment is said to be risk-off. Risk-off environments can be caused by widespread corporate earnings downgrades, contracting or slowing economic data, and uncertain central bank policy.

Just like the stock market rises in a risk-on environment, a drop in the stock market equals a risk-off environment. Investors jump from risky assets and pile into high grade bonds, U.S. Treasury bonds, gold, cash, and other safe havens

Risk-On Risk-Off?

Risk-on-risk-off investing relies on and is driven by changes in investor risk tolerance. Risk-on-risk-off (RORO) can also sway changes in investment activity in response to economic patterns. When risk is low, investors tend to engage in higher-risk investments. Investors tend to gravitate toward lower-risk investments when risk is perceived to be high.

Note: Thanks to Chat GPT.

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HABITUATION: Repetitive Stimuli

Posted on December 29, 2024 by Dr. David Edward Marcinko MBA MEd CMP™

By Staff Reporters

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Habituation is your brain’s way of tuning out repetitive stimuli. It’s like background noise – after a while, you stop noticing it. This mental autopilot helps us focus on new and important information, but it can also make us overlook the familiar. It’s why you might not notice a smell in your house that’s obvious to a visitor.

To combat habituation, according to colleague Dan Ariely PhD, try changing up your routine and environment. Fresh experiences keep your brain engaged and alert.


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PARADOX: Anti-Trust Definition with Book

Posted on December 29, 2024 by Dr. David Edward Marcinko MBA MEd CMP™

By Staff Reporters

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The anti-trust paradox suggests that antitrust enforcement artificially raised prices by protecting inefficient competitors from competition.

The Antitrust Paradox Book is an influential 1978 book by Robert Bork that criticized the state of US anti-trust law in the 1970s. A second edition, updated to reflect substantial changes in the law, was published in 1993. Bork has credited Aaron Director as well as other economists from the University of Chicago as influences.

Bork argued that the original intent of antitrust laws as well as economic efficiency makes consumer welfare and the protection of competition, rather than competitors, were the only goals of antitrust law.

Thus, while it was appropriate to prohibit cartels that fix prices and divide markets and mergers that create monopolies, practices that are allegedly exclusionary, such as vertical agreements and price discrimination, did not harm consumers and so should not be prohibited.

The paradox of antitrust enforcement was that legal intervention artificially raised prices by protecting inefficient enterprises from competition.

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PHANTOM: Income Tax on TIPS

Posted on December 28, 2024 by Dr. David Edward Marcinko MBA MEd CMP™

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“Phantom Tax” or “Phantom Income” for direct owners of Treasury inflation-protected securities (TIPS) TIPS adjust their principal values and interest payments for inflation. As with other directly owned Treasury securities, TIPS principal, including the inflation adjustments, is not paid back to investors until the securities mature.

However, the principal adjustments are taxed by the IRS as income in the year in which they occur, even though no actual payments are made in those years to investors who own TIPS directly. This is why this income is called “phantom income” and the tax on it is known as the “phantom tax.”

Investors can avoid the phantom income/tax issue for TIPS by holding TIPS in tax-deferred retirement accounts. Mutual funds and Exchange Traded Funds (ETFs) typically take the “phantom” factor out of TIPS ownership by distributing the principal adjustments as taxable dividends.

As with direct ownership of TIPS, the tax consequences of these distributions by mutual funds and ETFs can be reduced by holding TIPS-owning instruments in tax-deferred retirement accounts

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COGNITIVE BIAS: Envy and Jealousy

Posted on December 28, 2024 by Dr. David Edward Marcinko MBA MEd CMP™

By Staff Reporters

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Envy / Jealousy: This bias also relates to the contrast and social proof biases.  Prudent financial and business planning and related decision-making are based on real needs followed by desires.  People’s happiness and satisfaction is often based more on one’s position relative to perceived peers rather than an ability to meet absolute needs. 

The strong desire to “keep up with the Jones” can lead people to risk what they have and need for what they want.  These actions can have a disastrous impact on important long-term financial goals. 

According to colleague Dan Ariely PhD, clear communication and vivid examples of risks is often needed to keep people focused on important financial goals rather than spurious ones, or simply money alone, for its own sake.

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BACKFIRE: Mind Effect

Posted on December 27, 2024 by Dr. David Edward Marcinko MBA MEd CMP™

By Staff Reporters

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The Backfire Effect refers to the strengthening of a belief even after it has been challenged.

Cook and Lewandowsky (2011) explain it very well in the context of changing people’s minds in their Debunking Handbook. The backfire effect may work based on the same foundation as Declinism, in that we do not like change. It is also similar to negativity bias, in that we wish to avoid losing and other negative outcomes—in this case, one’s idea is being challenged or rejected (i.e. perceived as being made out to be “wrong”) and thus, they may hold on tighter to the idea than they had before.

However, according to colleague Dan Ariely PhD, there are caveats to the backfire effect—for example, we also tend to abandon a belief if there’s enough evidence against it with regard to specific facts.

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STOCK MARKET TRAPS: Overbought Bulls and Oversold Bears

Posted on December 27, 2024 by Dr. David Edward Marcinko MBA MEd CMP™

By Staff Reporters

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What Is a Bull Trap?

A bull trap, according to James Chen, is a false signal, referring to a declining trend in a stock, index, or other security that reverses after a convincing rally and breaks a prior support level. The move “traps” traders or investors that acted on the buy signal and generates losses on resulting long positions. A bull trap may also refer to a whipsaw pattern. Read: “Bull Trap.”

What is a Bear Trap

The opposite of a bull trap is a bear trap, which occurs when sellers fail to press a decline below a breakdown level.

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PCE: Personal Consumption Expenditures

Posted on December 27, 2024 by Dr. David Edward Marcinko MBA MEd CMP™

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PCE or the Personal Consumption Expenditures (“PCE”) price deflator—comes from the Bureau of Economic Analysis’ quarterly report on U.S. gross domestic product—and is based on a survey of businesses and is intended to capture the price changes in all final goods, no matter the purchaser.

Because of its broader scope and certain differences in the methodology used to calculate the PCE price index, the Federal Reserve (“the Fed”) holds the PCE deflator as its preferred, consistent measure of inflation over time.

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ICARUS: Business Paradox

Posted on December 26, 2024 by Dr. David Edward Marcinko MBA MEd CMP™

By Staff Reporters

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The Icarus Paradox suggests that some businesses bring about their own downfall through their own successes.

The Icarus paradox was coined by Dan Miller in his 1990 book by the same name. The term refers to the phenomenon of businesses failing abruptly after a period of apparent success, where this failure is brought about by the very elements that led to their initial success.

It alludes to Icarus of Greek mythology, who drowned after flying too close to the Sun. The failure of the very wings that allowed him to escape imprisonment and soar through the skies was what ultimately led to his demise, hence the paradox.

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CORPORATE EARNINGS: Per Share, Yield and EBDITA

Posted on December 26, 2024 by Dr. David Edward Marcinko MBA MEd CMP™

DEFINITIONS

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Earnings per share (EPS): The portion of a company’s profits allocated to each outstanding share of its common stock. It is as an indicator of a company’s profitability.

Earnings yield: Earnings per share for the most recent 12 months, divided by the current market price per share; it is the inverse of the price to earnings (P/E) ratio.

EBITDA: Earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization (EBITDA) is an approximate measure of a company’s operating cash flow.

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MANDEVILLE’S Economic Paradox

Posted on December 26, 2024 by Dr. David Edward Marcinko MBA MEd CMP™

DEFINITION

By Staff Reporters

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Bernard Mandeville’s Paradox represent actions that may be vicious to individuals may also benefit society as a whole.

Mandeville’s Paradox challenges traditional moral and economic assumptions about selfishness and virtue. It suggests that economic systems can thrive on individual self-interest, a concept that has influenced modern economic thought, particularly in the development of free-market ideologies.

Understanding this paradox is crucial for economists, policymakers, and philosophers as it complicates the evaluation of behaviors and policies based solely on their perceived moral qualities. It invites a complex analysis of how individual actions, regardless of their intentions, contribute to the broader welfare of society.

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TRUST: Deferred Sales

Posted on December 26, 2024 by Dr. David Edward Marcinko MBA MEd CMP™

DEFINITION

By Staff Reporters

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A deferred sales trust (DST) is an advanced tax strategy that allows investors to delay capital gains taxes on the sale of assets that have significantly risen in value, such as real estate or businesses. By selling the asset to a trust, the seller can receive payments over time, spreading out tax liabilities and allowing the profits to grow tax-deferred.

For example, a business owner may sell their company to a DST, avoiding a large tax bill upfront and instead receive income over multiple years. However, DSTs can be complex, and there are often fees involved in setting up and maintaining the trust.

Now, let’s point out some of the pros and cons of Deferred Sales Trusts.

One potential positive feature of using an installment sale to defer your capital gains taxes rather than a 1031 exchange is that installment sales don’t come with the same strict guidelines that govern 1031 exchanges. In particular, in light of the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act of 2017, 1031 exchanges are restricted to real property, whereas Deferred Sales Trusts and other installment sale arrangements can be used to defer capital gains for any kind of asset.

Conversely, the IRS has provided little to no guidance on how to defer taxes using an installment sale.

The basic rationale behind why you don’t receive capital gain is that you are not profiting immediately from the sale made with a Deferred Sales Trust. Given this rationale, there are various constraints on how a Deferred Sales Trust must be organized so that no capital gains taxes are in fact realized.

  • The third party to whom you transfer your asset generally cannot be a “related person” to you, such as a family member or a corporation in which you hold an interest. Except in special circumstances, if you attempt to set up a Deferred Sales Trust with a related person it will be viewed as a “sham trust” made just for the purposes of avoiding capital gains taxes, and will not be protected by the provisions in Section 453.
  • As with the 1031 exchange, you, the seller, cannot at any point in the transfer of your asset be in constructive receipt of the proceeds from the third party’s sale of that asset. To successfully defer capital gains taxes, either the third party or the trust of which they are trustee must be the only party which receives cash in the sale of the transferred asset. This includes receipt of a bond which is payable on demand.

This has been a general, informal introduction to Deferred Sales Trusts. As always, before attempting to carry out any important financial decision, investors should consult with a qualified tax or legal advisor regarding the specifics of their situation.

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HFR INVESTMENTS: Two Credit Indices

Posted on December 25, 2024 by Dr. David Edward Marcinko MBA MEd CMP™

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HFRI Fund of Funds Composite Index invests with multiple managers through funds or managed accounts. The strategy designs a diversified portfolio of managers with the objective of significantly lowering the risk (volatility) of investing with an individual manager. The Fund of Funds manager may allocate funds to numerous managers within a single strategy, or with numerous managers in multiple strategies. The investor has the advantage of diversification among managers and styles with significantly less capital than investing with separate managers. The HFRI Fund of Funds Index is not included in the HFRI Fund Weighted Composite Index.

HFRI Fund Weighted Composite Index is a global, equal-weighted index of over 2,000 single-manager funds that report to HFR Database. Constituent funds report monthly net of all fees performance in U.S. Dollar and have a minimum of $50 Million under management or a twelve (12) month track record of active performance. The HFRI Fund Weighted Composite Index does not include Funds of Hedge Funds.

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BRUSHING: Beware Holiday Scams!

Posted on December 25, 2024 by Dr. David Edward Marcinko MBA MEd CMP™

DEFINED

By Staff Reporters

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In brushing scams, according to Norton, criminals trick e-commerce platforms into believing you purchased a product, allowing them to post fake verified reviews under your name. These verified reviews increase the product’s visibility on sites like Amazon or eBay. They especially happen during the holiday season.

Here’s how it works:

  1. Information gathering: An unethical business gathers information about you through online sources such as people-search sites, data leaked through reaches, or info bought from an illegal marketplace.
  2. Bogus account creation: The business creates an online shopping account with your information.
  3. Shipment: They send a package to your address with no return address on the label.
  4. Fraudulent review: They write a glowing review in your name for the product they sent you.

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DAILY UPDATE: Ascension Healthcare Cyber Crime Attack as Stock Market “Christmas Rallies” On!

Posted on December 25, 2024 by Dr. David Edward Marcinko MBA MEd CMP™

MEDICAL EXECUTIVE-POST – TODAY’S NEWSLETTER BRIEFING

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Essays, Opinions and Curated News in Health Economics, Investing, Business, Management and Financial Planning for Physician Entrepreneurs and their Savvy Advisors and Consultants

“Serving Almost One Million Doctors, Financial Advisors and Medical Management Consultants Daily“

A Partner of the Institute of Medical Business Advisors , Inc.

http://www.MedicalBusinessAdvisors.com

SPONSORED BY: Marcinko & Associates, Inc.

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Daily Update Provided By Staff Reporters Since 2007.
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MERRY CHRISTMAS and HAPPY HANUKKAH

The financial markets will close early on Tuesday, December 24th, for Christmas Eve and will be closed on Wednesday, December 25th, for Christmas Day. Brokerage firms will process transaction requests received after 1 p.m., Eastern time, on Tuesday, December 24th, as if received on Thursday, December 26th, before 4 p.m., Eastern Standard time

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CITE: https://www.r2library.com/Resource

Healthcare provider Ascension has revealed the sensitive data of 5.6 million patients was compromised in a massive cyberattack earlier this year. The ransomware attack occurred in May and threw the company into turmoil, with patient portals and files inaccessible, elective services postponed, and some ambulances diverted, according to a filing with the Maine Attorney General that was reported by TechRadar. Ascension did not name the hackers, but CNN reporting indicated it stemmed from a Russian-speaking cybercrime affiliate known as Black Basta. It’s not clear if Ascension paid a ransom to get their systems back online.

CITE: https://tinyurl.com/2h47urt5

US stocks rallied in the final, shortened trading session before the Christmas holiday. The benchmark S&P 500 (^GSPC) finished the session up over 1.1%, while the tech-heavy NASDAQ Composite (^IXIC) rose roughly 1.4%. The Dow Jones Industrial Average (^DJI) climbed around 0.9%.

Wall Street successfully entered its Christmas break rejuvenated, after tech stocks including AI chip giant Nvidia (NVDA) led the march higher. Markets closed at 1 p.m. ET and are off tomorrow for Christmas Day.

Sizable gains in the past three trading sessions have put the indexes back on the path toward their record highs, from which they took a Fed-fueled nosedive last week.

CITE: https://tinyurl.com/tj8smmes

Visualize: How private equity tangled banks in a web of debt, from the Financial Times.

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NOMINAL YIELD: Calculation

Posted on December 24, 2024 by Dr. David Edward Marcinko MBA MEd CMP™

DEFINED

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Nominal yield, for most bonds and other fixed-income securities, is simply the yield you see listed online or in newspapers. Most nominal fixed-income yields include some extra yield, an “inflation premium,” that is typically priced/added into the yields to help offset the effects of inflation.

Real yields, such as those for TIPS, don’t have the inflation premium. As a result, nominal yields are typically higher than TIPS yields and other real yields.

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MAASTRICHT Treaty

Posted on December 24, 2024 by Dr. David Edward Marcinko MBA MEd CMP™

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The Maastricht Treaty, signed February 7th, 1992, in Maastricht, the Netherlands, created the European Union (EU) and led to the creation of the euro(€); the single currency adopted by most EU member states.

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MAYFIELD’S Paradox

Posted on December 24, 2024 by Dr. David Edward Marcinko MBA MEd CMP™

By Staff Reporters

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Mayfield’s Paradox suggests that keeping everyone out of an information system is impossible, but so is getting everybody in.

The paradox is depicted as a U-curve, where the cost of a system is on the vertical axis, and the percentage of humanity that can access the system is on the horizontal axis. Acceptance of this paradox by the information security community was immediate, because it was consistent with the professional experiences of this group.

Mayfield’s Paradox points out that, at some point of the curve, additional security becomes unrealistically expensive. Conversely, at some point of the curve, it becomes unrealistically expensive to add additional users.

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WITNESS Stress Issues

Posted on December 23, 2024 by Dr. David Edward Marcinko MBA MEd CMP™

By Staff Reporters

DEFINED

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Witness Stress is caused by witnessing a traumatic event and can lead to memory issues and confusion, affecting how accurately we remember details. This stress makes eyewitness testimonies more prone to error.

According to colleague Dan Ariily PhD, it highlights the role of stress in memory distortion and why additional support is often necessary for witnesses.

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INVESTMENT PORTFOLIO: More on Year End Mutual Fund “Window Dressing”

Posted on December 23, 2024 by Dr. David Edward Marcinko MBA MEd CMP™

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By Steve Selengut

December values may not be what they seem

NOTE: Mr. Selengut is a private investor and a contributing editor to LIFE & Health Advisor. He is the author of the book ‘The Brainwashing of the American Investor: The book that Wall Street does not want you to read.’

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As [physician] investors, and we all are investors these days, it is important that we understand the idiosyncrasies of year-end Stock Market activity. On Wall Street, investing can be a minefield for those who don’t appreciate the non-economic, non-business-model, factors contributing to the market value numbers in fourth quarter brokerage account summaries.

Year end market values may not be what they seem ….

“Portfolio Window Dressing” (PWD) produces security pricing that is more a function of next year’s institutional marketing programs than a reflection of the economic forces that we would like to think are their primary determining factors. Not even close…

Toward the end of every calendar quarter, we hear the financial media report that “institutional PWD activities” are in full swing. But that is as deep as the stories ever go. What are they talking about, and just what does it mean to you as an investor?

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READ MORE: https://www.lifehealth.com/year-end-portfolio-window-dressing/

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CHOICE: Overload Paradox

Posted on December 23, 2024 by Dr. David Edward Marcinko MBA MEd CMP™

By Dr. David Edward Marcinko MBA MEd CMP™

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Choice Overload is the difficulty in making a decision when faced with too many options. It’s like standing in front of an ice cream counter with 31 flavors and feeling paralyzed.

Among personal decision-makers, a prevention focus is activated and people are more satisfied with their choices after choosing among few options compared to many options, i.e. choice overload. However, individuals can also experience a reverse choice overload effect when acting as proxy decision-maker, too.

It is widely accepted that having more choices is inherently positive. When there are more available options from which to choose, an individual is more likely to be able to select the particular option that is the best fit and most likely to satisfy them. Choice is typically thought to be related to personal freedom and enhanced well-being.

Therefore, according to colleague Neal Baum MD, for most individuals the ultimate goal is to constantly maximize their choices in life to increase their overall satisfaction and well-being. The decision-making process, however, is a complex cognitive task that does not always lead to positive outcomes.

Thus, while having options is generally good, too many choices can lead to anxiety and decision fatigue. This is why curated selections and recommendations are so popular – they simplify the decision-making process’ according to another colleague Dan Ariely PhD.

So, when you’re overwhelmed by choices, narrow them down to a manageable number and make your decision easier.

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EUROPEAN UNION Paradox

Posted on December 22, 2024 by Dr. David Edward Marcinko MBA MEd CMP™

By Staff Reporters

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The European Union Paradox is the perceived failure of European countries to translate scientific advances into marketable innovations.

The root of this issue remains debated: is it due to the scientific output being distant from the cutting-edge, or is it because the European innovation system lacks the capacity to harness the potential of groundbreaking research?

And so, this study reveals that, compared to similar European research, the European Research Council has a similar probability of being cited in patents, although it garners a larger number of patent citations. Moreover, patents that do draw upon ERC research are often of superior quality, measured by forward citations.

Compared to similar European research, inventive activities arising from ERC science are predominantly housed within universities and public research organizations. In absolute terms, however, US organizations, especially US companies, still lead in deriving the greatest benefit from ERC science.

Cite: https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=4635463

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