Stocks, Commodities and Bonds

By Staff Reporters and A.I.

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*Stock data as of market close. Here’s what these numbers mean.
Stocks: The Russell 2000 went 967 days without hitting a new record high until Thursday. But, it looks like it will have to keep waiting for the next one—the small-cap-focused index fell, even as the DJIA, NASDAQ and S&P 500 rose to new closing highs on Friday.*
Bonds: 2-year yields and 10-year yields both hit two-week intra-day highs even after the FOMC cut interest rates, indicating that traders still aren’t sure how the economy will perform in the months ahead.
Commodities: Arabica futures fell on reports that lawmakers will introduce a bipartisan bill to exempt coffee from tariffs.

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DAILY UPDATE: OpenAI & Microsoft as Stock Markets Surge

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OpenAI is giving its employees a mandatory week long vacation to stave off a poaching spree launched by Meta.

Microsoft announced another round of layoffs—its largest in years—expected to impact thousands of workers across Xbox and other divisions, including 830 from its Redmond, Washington, HQ.

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The S&P 500 and NASDAQ Composite tallied fresh record closing highs on Thursday, buoyed by a stronger-than-expected jobs report that helped dampen expectations for a Federal Reserve interest-rate cut in July. But after lagging their trendier rivals earlier in the year, the Russell 2000 and Dow Jones Industrial Average are finally starting to play catch up. On Thursday, the Russell 2000 turned positive for 2025 for the first time since February, as a rally that started in June has accelerated in July.

Many investors have been waiting patiently for small-cap stocks to break out. But aside from a few false starts over the past two years, they have mostly continued to lag their large-cap rivals. However, some investors believe things could finally be changing.

A team of strategists at Barclays pointed out on Wednesday that a proposed increase to interest-expense tax deductions in President Trump’s budget bill could boost small-cap companies’ earnings by double digits, due to their higher interest burdens. “This market broadening out is a heathy sign,” said Craig Johnson, chief market technician at Piper Sandler, during an interview with MarketWatch on Thursday. More small-cap participation inevitably means investors are developing more of a taste for stocks beyond information technology, which powered much of the market’s gains in 2023 and 2024.

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Friday, July 4, 2025

  • All U.S. markets will be closed in observance of Independence Day.
  • There will be no Pre-Market or After-Hours trading sessions.

Visualize: How private equity tangled banks in a web of debt, from the Financial Times.

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DAILY UPDATE: Walgreens Boots Private Equity, Medical Cost Debt as Stock Markets Stabilize

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Walgreens Boots Alliance says it has agreed to be acquired by private equity firm Sycamore Partners as the struggling retailer looks to turn itself around after years of losing money. Walgreens said Thursday that Sycamore will pay $11.45 per share, giving the deal an equity value just under $10 billion. Shareholders could eventually receive up to an

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Stocks

  • The S&P 500 rose 0.6%
  • The NASDAQ 100 rose 0.7%
  • The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 0.5%
  • The MSCI World Index rose 0.2%
  • Bloomberg Magnificent 7 Total Return Index rose 0.2%
  • The Russell 2000 Index rose 0.4%

Currencies

  • The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index fell 0.2%
  • The euro rose 0.6% to $1.0851
  • The British pound rose 0.4% to $1.2929
  • The Japanese yen was little changed at 147.89 per dollar

Cryptocurrencies

  • Bitcoin fell 4% to $86,226.2
  • Ether fell 3.8% to $2,129.51

Bonds

  • The yield on 10-year Treasuries advanced two basis points to 4.30%
  • Germany’s 10-year yield was little changed at 2.84%
  • Britain’s 10-year yield declined two basis points to 4.64%

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Stat: 20%. That’s how many US residents under age 49 have borrowed money to cover medical costs. (West Health and Gallup)

Visualize: How private equity tangled banks in a web of debt, from the Financial Times.

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RUSSELL INDEX: 2000 and 3000?

By Staff Reporters

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The Russell 2000 Index is a stock market index that measures the performance of the 2,000 smaller companies included in the Russell 3000 Index. The Russell 2000 is managed by London’s FTSE Russell Group, widely regarded as a bellwether of the U.S. economy because of its focus on smaller companies in the U.S. market.

As of 31st December 2022, the weighted average market capitalization of a company in the index is approximately $2.76 billion and the median market capitalization is approximately $950 million. The market capitalization of the largest company in the index is approximately $8.1 billion. It first traded above the 1,000 level on May 20th, 2013, and above the 2,000 level on December 23rd, 2020.

Similar small-cap indices include the S&P 600 from Standard & Poor’s, which is less commonly used, along with those from other financial information providers.

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DAILY UPDATE: Public Companies and the Stock Market Technology Sell-Off

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The S&P 500 and NASDAQ both continued to sink under the weight of a tech selloff today, with semiconductors leading the way down. But even the Dow and Russell 2000, which have been the clear winners of the recent rally, took a beating today as investors assessed what a market rotation really means for them. 10-year Treasury yields bounced from recent lows as investors try to read between the lines of a full week of Fedspeak. Gold and oil both sold off a bit more today, though both remain near recent highs.

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What’s up

What’s down

  • Domino’s Pizza sank 13.42% after it missed earnings expectations last quarter and warned it will open fewer stores for the rest of 2024.
  • Beyond Meat tanked 10.32% on a report from the Wall Street Journal that management is in talks to restructure the company’s debt.
  • Eli Lilly slid another 6.24% as its selloff continues thanks to news that rival Roche Holdings is on its way to developing a weight-loss pill.
  • Nokia dropped 7.05% after posting its worst quarterly sales since 2015. Seems like nobody is buying phones with the shape and durability of a brick any more.

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Here’s where the major benchmarks ended:

  • The S&P 500 index fell 43.68 points (–0.78%) to 5,544.59; the Dow Jones Industrial Average® ($DJI) lost 533.06 points (–1.29%) to 40,665.02; the NASDAQ Composite gave up 125.70 points (–0.7%) to 17,871.22.
  • The 10-year Treasury note yield (TNX) rose about four basis points to 4.18%.
  • The CBOE Volatility Index climbed sharply to 15.9, its highest close since late April.

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DAILY UPDATE: Apple, Macy’s, Goldman, Banks, Companies and the Roaring DJIA

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  • The Dow jumped 700 points at one point today, its biggest single-day surge this year. The S&P 500 spent the entire trading session in positive territory, ending the afternoon at another record close, while the NASDAQ was flat most of the day as tech stocks sat out the rally.
  • Bitcoin continued to surge, rising as high as $65,191 as predictions of a second Trump presidency helped erase the cryptocurrency’s recent losses.
  • Gold hit a new record as hopes of a rate hike continue to rise, while oil sank on the news of slower economic growth in China translating to lower demand for crude.
  • The Russell 2000 enjoyed its 5th straight gain of 1% or more for the first time since 1979 as small caps make their comeback (more on that below).

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Apple released public beta versions of the newest software for iPhone, Mac, iPad, and Apple Watch. Macy’s ended talks of a buyout with investment firms Arkhouse Management and Brigade Capital Management after months of wrangling. Goldman Sachs was the latest big bank to benefit from rebounding investment banking fees as deals start making a comeback.

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Despite such challenges as high interest rates, a sluggish M&A market, and increased regulatory scrutiny, bank executives are feeling optimistic about the road ahead. That’s according to KPMG’s 2024 US Banking Industry Outlook Survey, published last month, which polled 200 senior executives at US banks of varying sizes in March 2024.

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Here’s where the major benchmarks ended:

  • The S&P 500® index (SPX) rose 35.98 points (0.64%) to 5,667.20; the Dow Jones Industrial Average® ($DJI) climbed 742.76 points (1.85%) to 40,954.48; the NASDAQ Composite® ($COMP) added 36.77 points (0.2%) to 18,509.34.
  • The 10-year Treasury note yield (TNX) fell slightly to just under 4.17%.
  • The CBOE Volatility Index® (VIX) ticked up to 13.19, still near three-week highs.

What’s up

  • Match Group climbed 7.46% after activist investor Starboard Value revealed it has taken a 6.6% stake in the matchmaking company.
  • Bank of America rose 5.35% on strong earnings, and management’s expectation that the bank’s net interest income will rise this year.
  • UnitedHealth Group popped 6.49% after beating analyst earnings estimates, missing revenue expectations, and most importantly, avoided higher costs after a recent cyberattack.
  • Shopify surged 8.57% thanks to an analyst upgrade from “neutral” to “buy” on the company’s turnaround efforts. Shares of Etsy rose 6.33% in sympathy.
  • GRAIL boomed 24.76% on the news that it is kicking off the clinical trials of its new cancer detection test.
  • Home builders’ hot streak continues: Hopes of a rate cut are fueling a rally for home builder stocks, with D.R. Horton up 6.64%, Lennar rising 6.55%, KB Home gaining 7.17%, and Builders FirstSource popping 8.11%.

What’s down

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DAILY UPDATE: HIPPA Web-Tracker Lawsuit and Bank Deposits Delayed as Markets Jump Again!

“FALL BACK WEEKEND”

By Staff Reporters

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The biggest U.S. hospital lobbying group just sued the Biden administration over new guidance barring hospitals and other medical providers from using trackers to monitor users on their websites. The American Hospital Association (AHA), along with the Texas Hospital Association and two nonprofit Texas health systems, filed a lawsuit against the U.S. Department of Health and Human Services (HHS) in federal court in Fort Worth, Texas. The lawsuit accuses the agency of overstepping its authority when it issued the guidance in December, 2022.

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Bank of America customers have been warned of delays to deposits following an unspecified issue that is affecting “multiple financial institutions”. The company reassured customers on Friday that their accounts remained “secure” and that no action was needed. A statement appearing on customer phone applications read: “Some deposits from 11/3 may be temporarily delayed due to an issue impacting multiple financial institutions.

Wells Fargo and Chase just reported similar situations.

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Here is where the major benchmarks ended:

  • The S&P 500 Index was up 40.56 points (0.9%) at 4,358.34; the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJI) was up 222.24 points (0.7%) at 34,061.32, up 5.1% for the week; the NASDAQ Composite (COMP) was up 184.09 points (1.4%) at 13,478.28, up 6.6% for the week.
  • The 10-year Treasury note yield was down about 9 basis points at 4.577%.
  • CBOE’s Volatility Index (VIX) was down 0.75 at 14.91.

Banks and other financial companies led Friday’s gainers, on hopes easing Treasury yields will relieve some pressure on lenders’ balance sheets. The KBW Regional Banking Index (KRX) surged 3.3% to end at a seven-week high, while Goldman Sachs Group (GS) shares jumped 4.4% to lead Dow gainers.

Retailer shares were also strong, as were small-caps in general, as the Russell 2000 Index (RUT) posted a gain of 7.6% for the week.

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DAILY UPDATE: Social Security COLA, Illegal Drugs and the Markets

By Staff Reporters

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The forecast for next year’s Social Security increase rose to 3.2% from 3% on Wednesday after the government said inflation ticked up in August. Annual inflation in August rose to 3.7%, from 3.2% in July but off a 40-year high of 9.1% in June 2022. Without the volatile food and energy sectors, the so-called “core” inflation rate was 4.3%, down from July’s 4.7%. 

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Illegal drugs are expected to be one of the biggest threats to national security in 2024 as overdose deaths topped 100,000 in the last year, according to the Department of Homeland Security’s annual threat study. In its report released Thursday, DHS said it expects illegal drugs produced in Mexico and sold in the United States will continue to kill more Americans than any other threat.

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U.S. stocks ended sharply higher and the greenback jumped on Thursday as robust economic data failed to budge expectations that the Federal Reserve will leave its key interest rate unchanged next week. The rally boosted a broad array of assets. All three major stock indexes ended higher, as did all 11 major sectors of the S&P 500. The dollar jumped to a six-month high, 10-year Treasury yields rose, and crude oil futures hit their highest this year, helping energy stocks outperform the broader market.

A spate of economic data released before the opening bell showed energy prices, specifically gasoline, were largely responsible for a hotter-than-expected producer prices print and a consensus-beating retail sales reading.

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Here is where the major benchmarks ended:

  • The S&P 500 Index was up 37.66 points (0.8%) at 4,505.10; the Dow Jones Industrial Average was up 331.58 points (1.0%) at 34,907.11; the NASDAQ Composite (COMP) was up 112.47 points (0.8%) at 13,926.05.The 10-year Treasury note yield (TNX) was up about 4 basis points at 4.286%. CBOE’s Volatility Index (VIX) was down 0.69 at 12.79.

Retailers were among the market’s strongest sectors Thursday in the wake of stronger-than-expected August retail sales reported by the Commerce Department. Energy companies also climbed as crude oil futures extended a rally and topped $90 a barrel for the first time since mid-November. Small-cap stocks joined the upswing, with the Russell 2000 Index (RUT) rising nearly 1.5% and ended at a one-week high. Volatility based on the VIX fell under 13.00 and near pre-pandemic levels of early 2020.

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