RECESSION INDICATOR: Inverted Yield Curve?

By Staff Reporters

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When economic trouble and/or uncertainty is brewing, it’s not uncommon for the US Treasury yield curve to flatten or even invert. A yield curve inversion, like we’re experiencing now, involves short-term-maturing bonds sporting higher yields than longer-dated Treasury bonds. It’s an indication that investors are worried about the U.S. economic outlook.

For the past 64 years, the Federal Reserve Bank of New York has used the Treasury yield spread between the 10-year bond rate and three-month bond rate to calculate the probability of a U.S. recession occurring within the next 12 months. Over these 64 years, the probability of a recession has topped 25% a dozen times and 40% on eight occasions. 

With the exception of a peak probability of a recession of 41.14% in October 1966, the New York Fed’s recession-forecasting tool hasn’t been wrong if it’s surpassed 40%. In other words, if the New York Fed’s recession probability indicator surpasses 40%, we’ve had a recession within 12 months, without fail, for more than a half-century.

In December 2022, this recession probability tool hit 47.31%. That’s the highest reading since 1981, and a very clear indication that economic activity is expected to slow at some point in 2024?

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SURVEY: Primary Care Doctors Deliver Most Medical Care

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By MCOL

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25% of Primary Care Doctors Delivered 86% of Medical Care

 •  25% of primary care doctors delivered 86% of medical care.
 •  25% of specialists on average provided 75% of medical care.
 •  16.3% of physicians listed in Medicaid managed care plan provider network directors in a year qualified as ghost physicians (seeing zero Medicaid beneficiaries over the course of the year in an outpatient setting).
 •  The share of ghost physicians ranged from 13.4% to 24.9% across states.

Source: Health Affairs via Fierce Healthcare, May 5, 2022

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STOCK MARKET “FRONT RUNNING”

By Staff Reporters

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According to Wikipedia, front running, also known as tailgating, is the practice of entering into an equity (stock) trade, option, futures contract, derivative, or security-based swap to capitalize on advance, nonpublic knowledge of a large (“block”) pending transaction that will influence the price of the underlying security. In essence, it means the practice of engaging in a personal or proprietary securities transaction in advance of a transaction in the same security for a client’s account.

Front running is considered a form of market manipulation in many markets. Cases typically involve individual brokers or brokerage firms trading stock in and out of undisclosed, unmonitored accounts of relatives or confederates. Institutional and individual investors may also commit a front running violation when they are privy to inside information.

A front running firm either buys for its own account before filling customer buy orders that drive up the price, or sells for its own account before filling customer sell orders that drive down the price. Front running is prohibited since the front-runner profits come from nonpublic information, at the expense of its own customers, the block trade, or the public market.

CITE: https://www.r2library.com/Resource

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High-profile short seller accused of fraud.

Citron Research founder Andrew Left is used to being the one calling out fraud, but federal prosecutors and the SEC claimed he’s the one pulling a financial fast one. The government alleges that Left committed securities fraud by using his appearances on television and his social media accounts to make misleading statements that manipulated the market—and reaped $16 million in profit for doing so.

Left declined to comment to news outlets, but his lawyer told the Wall Street Journal that the government’s cases were “based on a defective theory” and targeted Left for sharing his opinions.

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DOW JONES INDUSTRIAL AVERAGE: 30 “Blue Chip” Stock Index Update

By Staff Reporters

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The Dow Jones Industrial Average is a collection of 30 “blue-chip” U.S. stocks. Blue chip = big, established, and influential companies like Microsoft, JPMorgan, Disney, and McDonald’s. The Dow recently updated its roster, swapping ExxonMobil, Pfizer, and Raytheon for Salesforce, biotech Amgen, and manufacturing heavyweight Honeywell.

The Dow is weighted by share price, so higher-priced stocks have more influence on the index’s total value. Price-weighting also means that if the price of any stock in the Dow changes by $1, it has the same impact on the index, even though a $1 increase to a stock worth $20 is more significant (relatively) than a $1 change to a stock worth, say, $40.

  • During stock splits—when a company increases its number of outstanding shares and chops prices by the same factor—a company’s influence in the Dow can fall even if their market value doesn’t change. The Dow has some mechanisms to account for stock splits, but they can still lead to a shakeup in the index (like what happened last summer).

At 124 years old, the Dow has had plenty of time to cement its reputation as a leading indicator of the stock market. But with only 30 stocks representing a smattering of U.S. corporate titans, it’s not exactly representative.

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At one point the Dow Jones Industrial Average was up 585 points before it sold off later yesterday afternoon, though it wrapped the trading session with a small win. The S&P 500 fought its way into positive territory but struggled to stay there, eventually sinking into negative territory at the end of the day.

As for the NASDAQ, the tech selloff continued to punish the index for most of yesterday afternoon. Treasury yields fell a bit on positive GDP news, though the big PCE [personal consumption expenditures] announcement is the one investors have been waiting for.

Oil popped on a stronger than expected GDP reading, with traders banking on future economic growth and stronger oil demand.

Bitcoin sank a bit yesterday ahead of a major conference that could set the tone for the entire digital asset industry for years to come.

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CORPORATE EARNINGS REPORT: Week

By Staff Reporters

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Earnings announcements are a public statement of a company’s profitability for a specific period of time, such as a quarter (90 days) or a year. Equities research analysts will issue estimates of the company’s earnings numbers prior to its announcement date, which is generally set weeks or months in advance. If a company releases better results than analysts predict, its share price will generally rise after the announcement. Below you will find a list of public companies announcing their earnings results this week.

CITE: https://www.r2library.com/Resource

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Earnings reports to feast on them this week. About one-quarter of S&P 500 companies will release their Quarter 2nd financials, including Alphabet, Coca-Cola, Tesla, UPS, Visa, Chipotle, Comcast, GM, and Southwest Airlines.

And if you have room for more economic data, the government will release its first estimate of Q2 GDP on Thursday and an important inflation gauge on Friday.

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ECONOMICS: What is the “Golden Rule” Savings Rate?

And … the Solow capital motion growth model?

[By staff reporters]

In economics, the Golden Rule savings rate is the rate of savings which maximizes steady state level or growth of consumption, as for example in the Solow growth model.

Although the concept can be found earlier in John von Neumann and Maurice Allais‘s works, the term is generally attributed to Edmund Phelps who wrote in 1961 that the golden rule “do unto others as you would have them do unto you” could be applied inter-generationally inside the model to arrive at some form of “optimum“, or put simply “do unto future generations as we hope previous generations did unto us.”

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The Solow growth model

In the Solow growth model, a steady state savings rate of 100% implies that all income is going to investment capital for future production, implying a steady state consumption level of zero. A savings rate of 0% implies that no new investment capital is being created, so that the capital stock depreciates without replacement. This makes a steady state unsustainable except at zero output, which again implies a consumption level of zero.

Somewhere in between is the “Golden Rule” level of savings, where the savings propensity is such that per-capita consumption is at its maximum possible constant value.

Assessment

Put another way, the golden-rule capital stock relates to the highest level of permanent consumption which can be sustained.

Conclusion

Your thoughts and comments on this ME-P are appreciated. Feel free to review our top-left column, and top-right sidebar materials, links, URLs and related websites, too. Then, subscribe to the ME-P. It is fast, free and secure.

Speaker: If you need a moderator or speaker for an upcoming event, Dr. David E. Marcinko; MBA – Publisher-in-Chief of the Medical Executive-Post – is available for seminar or speaking engagements.

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PODCAST: Physician Entrepreneurial Tips on Opening Your Own Medical Practice

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By MEDICAL ECONOMICS

James Underberg, MD, discusses how he left a large health system to open his own practice, and provides tips for physicians considering the same move.

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Private Healthcare Equity: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tBwHu1uigoA

ME-P Business Plan: https://medicalexecutivepost.com/2022/04/05/get-your-free-medical-office-start-up-business-plan-from-imba-inc/

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INFLATION: Update FOMC

By Staff Reporters

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Jerome Powell said the Fed won’t wait for 2% inflation to cut rates

The central bank won’t wait to hit its inflation target before bringing interest rates down but wants to have “greater confidence” that inflation will get there in order to make cuts, Powell said at the Economic Club of Washington, DC, in his first public event since June’s cooling inflation numbers came out.

CITE: https://www.r2library.com/Resource

MEDICAL INFLATION: https://medicalexecutivepost.com/2023/03/30/medical-economics-healthcare-inflation/

However, the FOMC chair wasn’t willing to get into specifics about when rate cuts might be coming.

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62% of Nurses Would Consider a Change in Career Paths

By Staff Reporters

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A recent survey by StaffHealth of 250 RNs, LPNS, and CNAs found the following:

 •  86% of respondents say their workload/job responsibility has increased in the last year.
 •  54% of the above respondents say that the increase in workload has negatively impacted their mental health.
 •  83% of those surveyed agree that an increase in compensation/incentives would alleviate nurse burn out and shortages.
 •  62% of nursing professionals would currently consider a change in career paths.
 •  66% of respondents say access to mental health resources at work would be beneficial.

Source: StaffHealth via PRNewswire, February 8, 2022

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SURVEY: Medical Work-Place Violence 2022

Global Healthcare Exchange

By Staff Reporters

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5 Key Findings

 •  58% of Americans are worried about nurses and other clinicians being harmed while on hospital property.
 •  66% of Americans agree nurses and other front-line healthcare workers are more likely than those in other professions to be victims of workplace violence.
 •  57% say burn out from the past few years plays a role in contributing to healthcare labor shortages.
 •  88% believe that keeping track of every hospital visitor is essential to safety.
 •  82% of Americans believe that more state/federal action should be taken to keep healthcare workers safe.

Source: GHX, “82% of Americans believe that more state/federal action should be taken to keep healthcare workers safe,” April 7, 2022

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CONSUMER PRICE INDEX: What is the Elderly CPI?

The CPI-E

[By staff reporters]

We’ve written about the CPI and Chained CPI before on this ME-P.
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Q = So, what is the Elderly CPI?
A = It is experimental CPI for the elderly called the CPI-E.
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Mature Woman
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MORE:
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According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, or BLS, the CPI-E includes households whose reference person or spouse is 62 years of age or older.
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Risk Management, Liability Insurance, and Asset Protection Strategies for Doctors and Advisors: Best Practices from Leading Consultants and Certified Medical Planners™8Comprehensive Financial Planning Strategies for Doctors and Advisors: Best Practices from Leading Consultants and Certified Medical Planners™
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What is the PRODUCER PRICE INDEX?

By Dr. David E. Marcinko MBA MEd CMP®

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SPONSOR: http://www.CertifiedMedicalPlanner.org

DEFINITION: The PPI is a group of indexes that measure the change, over time, in the prices received by domestic producers of goods and services. It measures price changes from the perspective of the seller rather than the consumer, as with the CPI. The CPI would include imported goods, while the PPI is relevant to U.S. producers, and therefore would not include imports.

CITE: https://www.r2library.com/Resource/Title/0826102549

The PPI measures over 10,000 products and services. It reports the price changes prior to the retail level. This information is useful to the government in formulating fiscal and monetary policies. The data gathered from the PPI is often used in escalating purchase and sales contracts. That is the dollar amount to be paid at some time in the future.

NOTE: Long-term managed medical care contracts of the future will seek escalation clauses for increases in prices.

BLS: https://www.bls.gov/pPI/

full report: https://www.bls.gov/news.release/pdf/ppi.pdf

your comments are appreciated.

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PODCAST: How to be a DEBT FREE Direct Primary Care Physician?

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DEFINITION: The DPC model was created to allow for a singular focus upon the Primary Care Physician-2-Patient relationship. To achieve this, DPC removes the hassles and overhead expenses created by insurance and replaces it with a fixed monthly membership fee. This simplified approach frees the physician from meaningless paperwork and allows them to only see 8-10 patients a day. This level of personalized engagement allows them to develop a meaningful and enduring relationship with each patient.

CITE: https://www.r2library.com/Resource/Title/0826102549

By James Hawkes MD

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Dr. James Hawkes grew up in a large family. His father was a U.S. diplomat, which exposed him to different models of healthcare. In addition to exposure, his grandmother encouraged him to become a doctor. He followed her recommendation but to his surprise, the definition of a good doctor wasn’t about improving patients’ quality of life it was about hierarchies, documentation, administrative requirements, and quality measures. 

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Shortly after saying goodbye to the traditional healthcare model, he launched his own direct care practice. Fast forward to today, he is a 100% debt-free direct care physician. He shares his story of how it’s possible to achieve this goal.

PODCAST: https://healthcareamericana.com/episode/how-to-become-a-debt-free-direct-care-physician/

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PODCAST: “Real ACOs Haven’t Been Tried Yet!”

What is an Accountable Care Organization?

DEFINITION: ACOs are groups of doctors, hospitals, and other health care providers, who come together voluntarily to give coordinated high-quality care to their patients. The goal of coordinated care is to ensure that patients get the right care at the right time, while avoiding unnecessary duplication of services and preventing medical errors. When an ACO succeeds both in delivering high-quality care and spending health care dollars more wisely, the ACO will share in the savings.

Citation: https://www.r2library.com/Resource/Title/0826102549

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QUESTION: What happens when you’re a healthcare policy wonk and the pilot study for your pet program has failed miserably? 

ANSWER: You declare “Success!” in the editorial pages of the New England Journal of Medicine and demand that the program become nationwide and mandatory. I kid you not.  This is exactly what happens.

Thankfully, Anish Koka is vigilant and explains the blatant obfuscations and manipulations that the central planners engage in to have their way.

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And so, In this video, Anish and colleague Michel Accad, MD, will reveal the machinations, take the culprits to task, and discuss pertinent questions regarding health care organization: 

  • Does “capitation” reduce costs? 
  • Do employed physicians necessarily utilize fewer resources? 
  • What happens when a HMO and a traditional fee-for-service health system operate side-by-side in a community?
BMC and Accountable Care - Boston Medical Center

Enjoy!

PODCAST: http://alertandoriented.com/real-acos-havent-been-tried-yet/

Your thoughts are appreciated.

THANK YOU

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77% of Surveyed ACOs Use 6 or More EHR Systems

By Staff Reporters

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77% of Surveyed ACOs Use 6 or More EHR Systems

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All roads lead to the EHR - MedCity News

According to a recent AJMC survey of 163 MSSP ACOs

 •  Just 9% of surveyed ACOs use a single EHR system throughout their entire organization.
 •  77% of surveyed ACOs use 6 or more EHR systems.
 •  Among the 37% of Medicare Shared Savings Program ACOs with 16 or more EHR systems, concerns about EHR-based quality measures include access to data, standardization of data elements, and cost of integrating across systems.

Source: AJMC, “Use of Electronic Health Record Systems in Accountable Care Organizations”, January 18th 2022

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On Nursing Capitation Reimbursement?

Partial-Risk Medicare Nursing Capitation Economics is Still Not Working!

By Dr. David E. Marcinko MBA MEd CMP®

SPONSOR: http://www.CertifiedMedicalPlanner.org

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Capitated reimbursement is predominantly, but not exclusively, within the realm of physician providers. But, a decade ago Community Nursing Organization project examined an innovative approach to community nursing and ambulatory care services for Medicare beneficiaries. The hypothesis was that provision of such services would promote the timely and appropriate use of health care and to reduce the use of costly acute care services.

Organizations participating in the CNO demonstration were paid a fixed per-member-per-month capitated rate for covered services. But, the participating CNOs were only at risk under capitation for a subset of Medicare benefits [partial-capitation or carve-out]. The financial incentive was to minimize utilization covered under the capitated payment, but not necessarily to minimize utilization of services not covered because traditional Medicare, not the CNO, would be at risk.

Assessment

Final results indicated that the CNO model under partial capitation led to increased Medicare costs based on findings consistent across several analytic approaches. The cost differences between treatment and control or reference groups persisted after the application of increasingly complex risk-adjustment methods.

Moreover, the differences increased over time and were robust to changes in the way CNO participation was defined.

Lastly, there was no statistically significant evidence of increase in physical or social functioning of the treatment group, as compared with the control group. CNOs cost more without providing any health benefits along dimensions measured

[Source: Voluntary Partial Capitation: The CNO Medicare Demonstration Project, Austin Frakt, Steve Pizer, Robert Schmitz, and Soeren Mattke – Health Care Financing Review 2005).

Your thoughts are appreciated.

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PODCAST: Shortages in Healthcare

SUPPLY DEMAND CURVE

By Eric Bricker MD

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CORRELATION in Modern Portfolio Theory Investing

“Correlation” has been used over the past twenty years by institutions, [physician] investors and financial advisors to assemble portfolios of moderate INVESTMENT risk

By Dr. David Edward Marcinko MBA MEd CMP®

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SPONSOR: http://www.CertifiedMedicalPlanner.org

Modern Portfolio Theory approaches investing by examining the complete market and the full economy. MPT places a great emphasis on the correlation between investments. 

DEFINITION: Correlation is a measure of how frequently one event tends to happen when another event happens. High positive correlation means two events usually happen together – high SAT scores and getting through college for instance. High negative correlation means two events tend not to happen together – high SATs and a poor grade record. No correlation means the two events are independent of one another.

CITATION: https://www.r2library.com/Resource/Title/0826102549

CORRELATION: https://medicalexecutivepost.com/2021/02/05/correlation-is-not-causation/

In statistical terms two events that are perfectly correlated have a “correlation coefficient” of 1; two events that are perfectly negatively correlated have a correlation coefficient of -1; and two events that have zero correlation have a coefficient of 0.

In calculating correlation, a statistician would examine the possibility of two events happening together, namely:

  • If the probability of A happening is 1/X;
  • And the probability of B happening is 1/Y; then
  • The probability of A and B happening together is (1/X) times (1/Y), or 1/(X times Y).

There are several laws of correlation including;

  1. Combining assets with a perfect positive correlation offers no reduction in portfolio risk.  These two assets will simply move in tandem with each other.
  2. Combining assets with zero correlation (statistically independent) reduces the risk of the portfolio.  If more assets with uncorrelated returns are added to the portfolio, significant risk reduction can be achieved.
  3. Combing assets with a perfect negative correlation could eliminate risk entirely.   This is the principle with “hedging strategies”.  These strategies are discussed later in the book.

In the real world, negative correlations are very rare.  Most assets maintain a positive correlation with each other.  The goal of a prudent investor is to assemble a portfolio that contains uncorrelated assets.  When a portfolio contains assets that possess low correlations, the upward movement of one asset class will help offset the downward movement of another.  This is especially important when economic and market conditions change.

As a result, including assets in your portfolio that are not highly correlated will reduce the overall volatility (as measured by standard deviation) and may also increase long-term investment returns. This is the primary argument for including dissimilar asset classes in your portfolio. Keep in mind that this type of diversification does not guarantee you will avoid a loss.  It simply minimizes the chance of loss. 

In this table provided by Ibbotson, the average correlation between the five major asset classes is displayed. The lowest correlation is between the U.S. Treasury Bonds and the EAFE (international stocks).  The highest correlation is between the S&P 500 and the EAFE; 0.77 or 77 percent. This signifies a prominent level of correlation that has grown even larger during this decade.   Low correlations within the table appear most with U.S. Treasury Bills.

Historical Correlation of Asset Classes

Benchmark                             1          2          3         4         5         6            

1 U.S. Treasury Bill                  1.00    

2 U.S. Bonds                          0.73     1.00    

3 S&P 500                               0.03     0.34     1.00    

4 Commodities                         0.15     0.04     0.08      1.00      

5 International Stocks              -0.13    -0.31    0.77      0.14    1.00       

6 Real Estate                           0.11      0.43    0.81     -0.02    0.66     1.00

Table Source: Ibbotson 1980-2012

ASSESSMENT: Your thoughts are appreciated.

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BANKS: Eight Types; plus 1

DOCTORS NEED TO KNOW

SPONSOR: https://marcinkoassociates.com/

By Dr. David Edward Marcinko MBA MEd CMP

A general understanding of these bank types is suggested for any medical professional prior to launching a self-directed [ME, Inc] medical practice, clinic, guided investment strategy, personal financial plan or wealth building portfolio effort; etc.

READ HERE: https://marcinkoassociates.com/bank-types/

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ZOMBIE: Banks?

By Staff Reporters

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  • A zombie bank is an insolvent financial institution that is able to continue operating thanks to explicit or implicit support from the government.
  • Zombie banks are kept afloat to prevent panic from spreading to healthier banks.
  • The term zombie bank was first coined by Edward Kane of Boston College in 1987, in reference to the savings and loan crisis (S&L).

CITE: https://www.r2library.com/Resource

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Understanding Bond Duration

[By Dr. David Edward Marcinko; MBA, MEd, CMP™]

fp-book1

Because of today’s stock market volatility, and virtual collapse in some banks and world equities, an interesting question often arises when the physician-investor considers investing in bonds; as more and more are doing.

Question

How much will a bond’s price change from a 1 percent change in interest rates? 

Duration Defined

To answer this, consider the concept of duration.  According to Jeff Coons PhD, CFP™, a bond’s duration is the weighted average life of its cash flows.

Thus, if your bond pays $60 per year in coupon payments for ten years and $1,000 in par value at the end of the ten years, the duration is the length of time that it takes for you to receive the present value of the coupon payments and par value. 

CITE: https://www.r2library.com/Resource/Title/082610254

Rule-of-Thumb

How does this help answer the original question?  There is a handy rule-of-thumb that says the duration of a bond times the change in market interest rates is the approximate price change of the bond.  Thus, the price of a ten-year Treasury bond with a duration of approximately 7.8 years will appreciate (decline) by about 7.8 percent with a drop (increase) in interest rates of 1 percent.

Assessment

For each of the two basic types of bonds, the duration is the following:

1. Zero-Coupon Bond – Duration is equal to its time to maturity, and

2. Vanilla Bond – Duration will always be less than its time to maturity. 

Channel Surfing the ME-P

Have you visited our other topic channels? Established to facilitate idea exchange and link our community together, the value of these topics is dependent upon your input. Please take a minute to visit. And, to prevent that annoying spam, we ask that you register. It is fast, free and secure.

The BANKS: https://www.fool.com/investing/2023/03/30/why-is-everyone-talking-about-duration/

Conclusion

Your thoughts and comments on this ME-P are appreciated. Feel free to review our top-left column, and top-right sidebar materials, links, URLs and related websites, too. Then, subscribe to the ME-P. It is fast, free and secure.

Speaker: If you need a moderator or speaker for an upcoming event, Dr. David E. Marcinko; MBA – Publisher-in-Chief of the Medical Executive-Post – is available for seminar or speaking engagements. Contact: MarcinkoAdvisors@msn.com

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PODCAST: What is Public Health?

By American Journal of Public Health

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Public health is now part of the political conversation but everyone doesn’t understand it in the same way. Hence the idea of interviewing Governor John Kasich, former governor of Ohio, who has been promoting a greater attention to public health, about what is public health for him.

CITE: https://www.r2library.com/Resource/Title/082610254

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INSURANCE: https://www.amazon.com/Dictionary-Health-Insurance-Managed-Care/dp/0826149944/ref=sr_1_4?ie=UTF8&s=books&qid=1275315485&sr=1-4

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TECH: https://www.amazon.com/Dictionary-Health-Information-Technology-Security/dp/0826149952/ref=sr_1_5?ie=UTF8&s=books&qid=1254413315&sr=1-5

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PODCAST: Hospital Healthcare Finance Explained

By Eric Bricker MD

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CITE: https://www.r2library.com/Resource/Title/082610254

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Whither the CERTIFIED MEDICAL PLANNER™ Marks?

Wither the CERTIFIED MEDICAL PLANNER™ Professional Certification?

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DEAR INVESTMENT ADVISORS, CPAs, FINANCIAL PLANNERS, FINANCIAL ADVISORS & INSURANCE AGENTS

We believe that:

If you do not have a market niche; you are not deeply informed
If you are not deeply informed; you can’t different yourself
If you can’t differentiate yourself; you can’t differentiate price
If you can’t differentiate price; you have no market power
If you have no market power; you have no unique knowledge
If you have no unique knowledge; you have fewer profits

If you have fewer profits; you are not likely a CMP™

CMP

PROGRAM CURRICULUM: Enter the CMPs

POPULAR BOOKS: https://medicalexecutivepost.com/2021/04/29/why-are-certified-medical-planner-textbooks-so-darn-popular/

Dean Gene Schmuckler PhD MBA MEd CTS
http://www.CertifiedMedicalPlanner.org

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PODCAST: A Full Course on Bio-Statistics

By Quinnipiac University

Biostatistics are the development and application of statistical methods to a wide range of topics in biology. It encompasses the design of biological experiments, the collection and analysis of data from those experiments and the interpretation of the results.

The following topics of #biostatistics are discussed in this course

⭐️ Table of Contents ⭐️ 0:00

Module 1 – Introduction to Statistics 29:13 Module 2 – Describing Data: Shape 45:44 Module 3 – Describing Data: Central Tendency 1:03:34 Module 4 – Describing Data: Variability 1:34:51 Module 5 – Describing Data: Z-scores 1:43:25 Module 6 – Probability (part I) 2:09:21 Module 6 – Probability (part II) 2:26:22 Module 7 – Distribution of Sample Means 2:41:24 Module 9 – Estimation & Confidence Intervals & Effect Size 2:56:59 Module 10 – Misleading with Statistics 3:17:43 Module 11 – Biostatistics in Medical Decision-making 4:13:36 Module 11b – Biostatistics in Medical Decision-Making: Clinical Application 4:56:51 Module 12 – Biostatistics in Epidemiology 5:05:16 Module 13 – Asking Questions: Research Study Design 5:10:15 Module 14 – Bias & Confounders 5:39:20 Module 16 – Correlation & Regression 6:06:19 Module 17 – Non-parametric Tests ⭐️

CITE: https://www.r2library.com/Resource/Title/0826102549

PODCAST: 0:00

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Risk Management, Liability Insurance, and Asset Protection Strategies for Doctors and Advisors : Best Practices from Leading Consultants and Certified Medical Planners™ book cover

RISK MANAGEMENT: https://www.routledge.com/Risk-Management-Liability-Insurance-and-Asset-Protection-Strategies-for/Marcinko-Hetico/p/book/9781498725989

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The Diderot Effect?

What is it?

[By staff reporters]

The Diderot Effect is a social phenomenon related to consumer goods. It is based on two ideas.

The first idea is that goods purchased by consumers will align with their sense of identity, and, as a result, will complement one another.

The second idea states that the introduction of a new possession that deviates from the consumer’s current complementary goods can result in a process of spiraling consumption.

The term was coined by anthropologist and scholar of consumption patterns Grant McCracken in 1988, and is named after the French philosopher Denis Diderot, who first described the effect in an essay.

MORE: https://medicalexecutivepost.com/2021/01/25/the-prosperity-paradox/

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MEDICAL DEBT: Banks and Private Equity Cash In When Patients Can’t Pay Bills

By Noam N. Levey and Aneri Pattani

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Robin Milcowitz, a Florida woman who found herself enrolled in an AccessOne loan at a Tampa hospital in 2018 after having a hysterectomy for ovarian cancer, said she was appalled by the financing arrangements.“Hospitals have found yet another way to monetize our illnesses and our need for medical help,” said Milcowitz, a graphic designer.

She was charged 11.5% interest — almost three times what she paid for a separate bank loan. “It’s immoral,” she said.

READ: https://khn.org/news/article/how-banks-and-private-equity-cash-in-when-patients-cant-pay-their-medical-bills/

MORE: https://khn.org/news/article/medical-debt-hospitals-dallas-fort-worth/

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DOCTOR: What is Your Investment Philosophy for [Second-Half] 2024?

HERE IS MINE IN BRIEF

DR. DAVID EDWARD MARCINKO MBA MEd CMP

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SPONSOR: https://marcinkoassociates.com/

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We have produced Investment Policy Statements of a hundred pages or more for our esteemed physician clients and colleagues. Or, others were just a few pages or a conversation.

ISP: https://medicalexecutivepost.com/2023/03/02/selecting-money-managers/

But, before deciding on any investment direction and philosophy in brief, however, we typically first focus on how much medical clients need to live on. For the income part of a client’s portfolio, that entails locking in rates of at least 4-5%, whether through municipal and corporate bonds, certificates of deposits, Treasury ladders, utilities or conservative dividend producing equities or ETFs, etc.

CITE: https://www.r2library.com/Resource

Once income requirements are fulfilled, whatever money is left over gets diversified into a portfolio of growth and value stocks—with some alternative investments. We limit making tactical shifts like putting money into cash when markets fell last year, or more recently, buying CDs and Treasuries as rates went up.  But, we do re-direct cash income, rather than sell assets in real time, as our philosophy trends to a “Buy and Hold” strategy.

Currently, we’re sitting on the sidelines with cash, some of which we are getting ready to deploy into the market as we position for any pullbacks later this 2024 year.

So, what is your investing philosophy for today, and or, tomorrow?

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About LOW Debt to Equity Ratios

WHAT AND WHY?

Low Debt / Equity Ratios

What? – Debt to Equity displays the financial leverage a company takes on to grow and support their operations. – It gives investors a glimpse if a company is raising capital through debt products more than they are using equity provided by investors.

Why? – If a company is highly leverage (i.e., having copious amounts of debt) then they are more susceptible to risk to their operations if any economic downturn occurs of if interests’ rates increase. Yet, they can grow at a faster pace and use the capital provided by investors on other growth projects.

If a company is uses equity, then they are less susceptible to risk to their operations if any economic downturn occurs of if interests’ rates increase. However, they cannot grow their business as fast as a company that uses more debt.

CITE: https://www.r2library.com/Resource/Title/0826102549

Now What? Compare the stocks within this list to equally sized stocks within a similar industry sector.

For example, Compare Small Cap tech stocks with one another. Determine if they are trying to grow their business or if they are trying to save the business by lending capital to turnaround their company and avoid bankruptcy.

RELATED: https://medicalexecutivepost.com/2021/10/10/what-is-medical-practice-financial-ratio-analysis/

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3 FINANCIAL SLANG “T” Terms

DEFINITIONS Physician-Investors Need to Know

By. Dr. David E. Marcinko MBA MEd CMP®

CMP logo


SPONSOR: http://www.CertifiedMedicalPlanner.org

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Trading AheadUnethical and illegal trading by specialists or market makers.
A specialist may buy a stock for themselves from Dr. John Q. Public even though a better price is available from another seller. The specialist can view bid and ask prices and then manually mis-match them, or see ahead to a less favorable price. It happens in this editor’s experience, by observing how long it takes for a stop order to execute after the stop price was reached.
This practice is a form of shimming.
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Trading ImbalanceA situation where a large block of stock is put up for sale, but not enough buyers are available for purchase, and a market maker is unable to buy the imbalance. Lightly traded and tightly held stocks are considered temporarily illiquid during such imbalances.
On occasion, a trading halt is put into place until enough buyers are available to purchase the deficit. On rare occasion, a handful of buyers can buy the stock at a huge discount if the stock was not halted during the imbalance.
On the New York Stock Exchange, large stocks usually have a “delayed open” for such imbalances, as a trading specialist will fill the order by lining up buyers for the block, and then open trading for the stock for the day.
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Triple Witching HourThe final hour of trading on a Friday when stock index futures, stock index options, and stock options all expire. This happens on the third Friday in March, June, September, and December. See Quadruple Witching Hour.
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CITE: https://www.r2library.com/Resource/Title/0826102549

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What is an Unregistered Security?

By Staff Reporters

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A security, most simply, is a financial instrument traded for profit. They form the basis of investment contracts for thinks like equities, debt, and derivatives.

CITE: https://www.r2library.com/Resource/Title/0826102549

The SEC points to the Howey Test to determine if an asset can be classed as a security. This test has four prongs, all of which need to be passed to be determined a security: [1] An investment of money [2] in a common enterprise [3] with expectations of a profit [4] to be derived from the efforts of others.

In the US, if an asset is deemed to be a security it needs to be registered with the SEC. For example, an initial public offering (IPO) of a stock newly listed on the stock exchange represents the first offering of its freshly registered securities. Securities need to be registered as it gives the issuing company the relevant shareholder information to pay dividends and provide relevant stock-related information. It also helps reduce fraud by keeping on record the legitimate owner of the security.

According to the SEC, an unregistered security is simply one that hasn’t been rubber-stamped by the regulator. 

Unregistered securities have been the subject of several scams, with the SEC saying their hallmarks include the promise of high yields with no risk, aggressive sales tactics, and are backed by unqualified investment professionals. As such, their use is limited.

Only accredited investors, defined as those with a net worth higher than $1 million or an annual income exceeding $200,000, can trade unregistered securities, essentially locking out most retail investors. The threshold is seen as a gauge of financial sophistication and suggests a buffer for eligible investors against potential losses.

RELATED: https://medicalexecutivepost.com/2022/01/14/the-private-placement-regulation-d-securities-exemption/

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MUTUAL FUNDS: Terms and Definitions for Physicians

A “Need-to-Know” Glossary for all Medical Professionals

http://www.HealthDictionarySeries.org

HDS

[ME-P Staff Writers] 

ADV: A two-part form filed by investment advisors who register with the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), as required under the Investment Advisers Act. ADV Part II information must be provided to potential investors and made available to current investors.

Alpha: A measure of the amount of a portfolio’s expected return that is not related to the portfolio’s sensitivity to market volatility. A benchmark that uses beta as a measure of risk, a benchmark and a risk free rate of return (usually T-bills) to compare actual performance with expected performance.

For example, a fund with a beta of .80 in a market that rises 10% is expected to rise 8%.

If the risk-free return is 3%, the alpha would be –.6%, calculated as follows: (Fund return – Risk-free return) – (Beta x Excess return) = Alpha   (8% – 3%) – [.8 × (10% – 3%)] = (–) .6%   

Note: A positive alpha indicates out-performance while a negative alpha means underperformance. 

Asset allocation: Strategic asset allocation refers to the long-term targets for allocation of a percentage of a portfolio among different asset classes. In contrast, tactical asset allocation refers to short-term targets.

Average maturity: The average weighted maturity of the bonds in a portfolio providing an indication of interest rate risk.

Benchmark: An index, managed portfolio, or fund used to compare performance characteristics with the targeted portfolio or fund.

Beta: A statistically computed measure of the portfolio’s relationship to changes in market value. If, compared to the S&P 500, a fund has a beta of .80; it is expected to under perform a rising market by 20% and outperform a falling market by 20%. 

Bond: Publicly traded debt instruments that are issued by governments and corporations. The issuer agrees to pay a fixed amount of interest over a specified time period and to repay the principal at maturity.

Closed-end mutual fund: An investment company that registers shares in accordance with SEC regulations and is traded in securities markets at prices determined by investments. 

Diversification: Buying a number of different investment vehicles to protect against default of a single vehicle, thereby reducing the risk of the portfolio.

Duration: A more technical calculation of interest rate risk exposure that uses the present value of expected cash flows to be returned to the bond holder over the term of the bond. 

Fundamental analysis: An analysis of a company’s stock that focuses on the economic environment, the industry the company is in, and the company’s financial situation and operating results.

Mutual fund: A regulated investment company that manages a portfolio of securities for its shareholders.

Net asset value (NAV): The value of fund assets fewer liabilities divided by outstanding shares. 

Open-end mutual fund: An investment company that invests money in accordance with specific objectives on behalf of investors. Fund assets expand or contract based on investment performance, new investments and redemptions.

Portfolio manager: The person(s) who is/are responsible for managing the portfolio in accordance with the objectives dictated by an investor or a fund’s prospectus.

Prospectus: A disclosure document filed with the SEC and made available to prospective and current investors. The prospectus covers sales charges, expenses, investment objectives and restrictions, management fees, financial highlights, and other information. 

R-squared (R2): Relationship of a fund or portfolio’s performance to a benchmark index.

For example, a fund R-squared of .5 means only 50% of its return is explained by the index. Other factors are responsible for the balance of performance. 

SEC yield: A standardized calculation of yield over a 30-day period, sometimes quoted as the “30-day yield.” It takes into account yield-to-maturity rather than current dividends. 

Standard deviation: A statistic that looks at a series of returns and expresses the average deviation from the mean return.

Statement of additional information: A disclosure document filed with the SEC that supplements the prospectus. It is made available to investors upon request. 

Technical analysis: An analysis that focuses on trends in financial markets generally.

For example, a technical analyst may view an entire industry’s group of stocks to be declining. Although the analyst may be correct about the group of stocks as a whole, there may be exceptions represented by specific, individual companies.

Total return: The combination of investment return from income, such as dividends and interest, and appreciation or depreciation in the value of the investment (Income returns plus capital return.) 

Turnover: Under SEC rules, a figure computed that indicates how often securities in the portfolio are bought and sold. For example, if turnover is 100% over a one-year period, the securities (on average) were replaced once. 

12b-1 fee: The maximum annual fee payable from fund assets for distribution and sales costs as allowed by the SEC. 

CITE: https://www.r2library.com/Resource

MORE: Glossary Terms Ap 3

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What is IMPLIED Stock Volatility?

By Staff Reporters

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Implied open attempts to predict the prices at which various stock indexes will open at 9:30 am EST. It is frequently shown on various cable television channels and websites prior to the start of the next business day.  This is a powerful tool that gives traders an indication on whether they should be bullish or bearish during the market for SPX, NDX, and RUT.

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What is Implied Volatility?

Implied volatility shows how much movement the market is expecting in the future.

Options with high levels of implied volatility suggest that investors in the underlying stocks are expecting a big move in one direction or the other. It could also mean there is an event coming up soon that may cause a big rally or a huge sell-off.

MORE: https://medicalexecutivepost.com/2022/03/18/options-and-derivatives-glossary/

However, implied volatility is only one piece of the puzzle when putting together an options trading strategy.

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VIX: https://medicalexecutivepost.com/2022/09/01/what-up-vix/

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STOCK SPLITS: A Vital Equity Investing Concept for Physicians and all Investors

By Dr. David Edward Marcinko MBA MEd CMP™

SPONSOR: http://www.CertifiedMedicalPlanner.org

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One important equity concept that medical professionals should be aware of is the idea of stock splits.

In a stock split, a corporation issues a set number of shares in exchange for each share held by share holders. Typically, a stock split increases the number of shares owned by a shareholder.

CITE: https://www.r2library.com/Resource

For example, XYZ Corp. may declare a 2-for-1 split, which means that share holders will receive two shares for each share that they own. However, corporations can also declare a reverse stock split, such as a 1-for-2 split where shareholders would receive 1 share for every two shares that they own.


While stock splits can either increase or decrease the number of shares that a share holder owns, the most important thing to understand about stock splits is that they have no impact on the aggregate value of the shareholder’s position in the company.

Using the XYZ Corp. example above, if the stock is trading at $10 per share, an investor owning 100 shares has a 24 total position of $1,000. After the 2-for-1 split occurs the investor will now own 200 shares, but the value of the stock will adjust downward from $10 per share to $5 per share.

Thus, the investor still owns $1,000 of XYZ stock. While stock splits are often interpreted as signals from management that conditions in the company are strong, there is no intrinsic reason that a stock split will result in subsequent stock appreciation.

NVIDIA Splits: https://tinyurl.com/238yze4k

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Hurdle Rates V. Highwater Marks V. Claw Back Provisions

More on Hedge Funds and Fees

dem-2By Dr. David Edward Marcinko MBA MEd CMP®

SPONSOR: http://www.CertifiedMedicalPlanner.org

Many physicians and other investors — even those that meet net worth guidelines — are surprised to learn that there exists a $500 – 999 billion, or more, alternative investment industry that is not generally marketed to the public. Such alternative investments have also been known as hedge funds or private investment funds.

Unlike mutual funds, these alternative investments can be structured in a wide variety of ways. Because of the very same regulations discussed above, these funds cannot be advertised, but they are far from illegal or illicit.

http://www.CertifiedMedicalPlanner.org

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History

In fact, physicians were among the most significant early investors in one of the last century’s most successful hedge funds. Mr. Warren Buffett, Chairman of Berkshire Hathaway, Inc. and a legendary investor got his start in 1957 running the Buffett Partnership, an alternative investment fund not open to the general public. Mr. Buffett’s first public appearance as a money manager was before a group of physicians in Omaha, Nebraska. Eleven decided to put some money with him. A few of these original investors followed him into Berkshire Hathaway, now among the most highly valued companies in the world.

The alternative investment, or hedge, funds of today are similar to the original Buffett Partnership in many ways. So, we will discuss several unique terms which potential investors should be aware.

http://www.HealthDictionarySeries.org

hds

Hurdle Rate

Hedge funds may feature a hurdle rate as part of the calculation of the fund manager’s performance incentive compensation. Also known as a “benchmark,” the hurdle rate is the amount, expressed in percentage points, an investor’s capital account must appreciate before the account becomes subject to a performance incentive fee. Potential medical investors should view the hurdle rate as a form of protection in context with other features of the fee arrangement.

The hurdle rate, which benchmarks a single year’s performance, may be considered mutually exclusive of any other year, or the hurdle rate may compound each year. The former case is more common. In the latter case, a portfolio manager failing to attain a hurdle rate in the first year will find the effective hurdle rate considerably higher during the second year.

Once a fund manager attains the hurdle rate for an investor, the medical investor’s capital account may be charged a performance incentive fee only on the performance above and beyond the hurdle rate. Alternatively, the account may be charged a performance fee for the entire level of performance, including the performance required to attain the hurdle rate. Other variations on the use of the hurdle rate exist, and are limited only by the contract signed between the fund manager and the investor. The hurdle rate is not generally a negotiating point, however.

Example:

A fund charges a performance fee with a 6 percent hurdle rate, calculated in mutually exclusive manner. Dr. Lanouettea, a radiologist investor places $100,000 with the fund. The first year’s performance is 5 percent. The investor therefore owes no performance fee during the first year because the portfolio manager did not attain the hurdle rate. During year two, the portfolio manager guides the fund to a 7 percent return. Because the hurdle rate is mutually exclusive of any other year, the portfolio manager has attained the 6 percent hurdle rate and is entitled to a performance fee.

Highwater Mark

Some funds feature a highwater mark provision, also known as a ”loss-carryforward” provision. As with the hurdle rate, potential investors should consider the highwater mark a form of protection. A high water mark is an amount equal to the greatest value of an investor’s capital account, adjusted for contributions and withdrawals. The high water mark ensures that the hedge fund manager charges a performance incentive fee only on the amount of appreciation over and above the highwater mark set at the time the performance fee was last charged. The current trend is for newer funds to feature this highwater mark, while older, larger funds may not feature it.

Example:

A fund charges a 20 percent performance fee with a highwater mark but no hurdle rate. Dr. Butalak, a dentist investor contributes $100,000 to the fund. During the first year, the hedge fund manager grows that capital account to $110,000 and charges a 20 percent performance fee, or $2,000. The ending capital account balance and highwater mark is therefore $108,000. During year two, the account falls back to $100,000, but the highwater mark remains $108,000. During year three, in order for the manager to charge a performance fee, the manager must grow the capital account to a level above $108,000.

Clawback Provision

Rarely, a fund may provide investors with a clawback provision. This term, borrowed from the venture capital fund world, such provisions result in a refund to the investor of all or part of a previously charged performance fee if a certain level of performance is not attained in subsequent years. Such refunds in the face of poor or inadequate performance may not be legal in some states or under certain authorities.

Conclusion

Your thoughts and comments on this ME-P are appreciated. Feel free to review our top-left column, and top-right sidebar materials, links, URLs and related websites, too. Then, subscribe to the ME-P. It is fast, free and secure.

Speaker: If you need a moderator or speaker for an upcoming event, Dr. David E. Marcinko; MBA – Publisher-in-Chief of the Medical Executive-Post – is available for seminar or speaking engagements. Contact: MarcinkoAdvisors@msn.com

OUR OTHER PRINT BOOKS AND RELATED INFORMATION SOURCES:

 Risk Management, Liability Insurance, and Asset Protection Strategies for Doctors and Advisors: Best Practices from Leading Consultants and Certified Medical Planners™  Comprehensive Financial Planning Strategies for Doctors and Advisors: Best Practices from Leading Consultants and Certified Medical Planners™

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PODCAST: What is an “Entrepreneur” According to Austrian Eonomists

The Methodology of Thinking on Your Own

Courtesy: http://www.CertifiedMedicalPlanner.org

cropped-dem

By Dr. David E. Marcinko MBA MEd CMP

The Austrian school of Economics uses the logic of a priori thinking—something a person can think on their own without relying on the outside world—to discover economic laws of universal application.

The other mainstream schools of economics, like the neoclassical school, the new Keynesians and others, make use of data and mathematical models to prove their point objectively.

In this respect, the Austrian school can be more specifically contrasted with the German historical school that rejects the universal application of any economic theorem.

PODCAST: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MxK8FKU3BPs

And so, colleague Peter Quinones Free Man Beyond The Wall – welcomes Per in this podcast presentation. Per talks about the role of the entrepreneur, not only in society, but according to the Austrian School of Economics!

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PODCAST: http://freemanbeyondthewall.libsyn.com/episode-312

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Correlation is NOT Causation!

“CORRELATION DOES NOT IMPLY CAUSATION”
Repeat After Me!

DEFINITION: The phrase “correlation does not imply causation” refers to the inability to legitimately deduce a cause-and-effect relationship between two events or variables solely on the basis of an observed association between them.
CITE: https://www.r2library.com/Resource/Title/082610254

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LOGIC FALLACY: The idea that “correlation implies causation” is an example of a questionable-cause logical fallacy, in which two events occurring together are taken to have established a cause-and-effect relationship.

This fallacy is also known by the Latin phrase cum hoc ergo propter hoc (‘with this, therefore because of this‘). This differs from the fallacy known as post hoc ergo propter hoc (“after this, therefore because of this”), in which an event following another is seen as a necessary consequence of the former event, and from conflation, the errant merging of two events, ideas, databases, etc., into one.

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SUNK COSTS: The Fallacy

By Staff Reporters

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A common term in business, the sunk cost fallacy applies to our choices and activities made daily.

CITE: https://www.r2library.com/Resource/Title/082610254

A sunk cost fallacy is a simple logical fallacy that means sticking with a losing or failed venture or activity because you have already invested considerable time, energy, money, or other things you can’t get back. It’s the idea that because you already have incurred costs, you stick with it to  “get your money’s worth.”

The sunk cost fallacy differs from other logical fallacies because it’s not a rhetorical fallacy. You may also experience a discussion with a “red herring” or “straw man” fallacy with someone. But the sunk cost fallacy is an illogical choice as a way to justify to yourself why you keep doing something.

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PODCAST: Simpson’s Paradox in Medicine

 EXPLAINED

Courtesy: www.CertifiedMedicalPlanner.org

Simpson’s paradox (or Simpson’s reversal, Yule–Simpson effect, amalgamation paradox, or reversal paradox) is a phenomenon in probability and statistics, in which a trend appears in several different groups of data but disappears or reverses when these groups are combined.

This result is often encountered in social-science and medical-science statistics and is particularly problematic when frequency data is unduly given causal interpretations. The paradox can be resolved when causal relations are appropriately addressed in the statistical modeling.

Simpson’s paradox has been used as an exemplar to illustrate to the non-specialist or public audience the kind of misleading results misapplied statistics can generate. Martin Gardner wrote a popular account of Simpson’s paradox in his March 1976 Mathematical Games column in Scientific American.

Edward H. Simpson first described this phenomenon in a technical paper in 1951, but the statisticians Karl Pearson et al., in 1899, and Udny Yule, in 1903, had mentioned similar effects earlier. The name Simpson’s paradox was introduced by Colin R. Blyth in 1972.

PODCAST: https://tinyurl.com/5hycyjv6

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GAP: Life Span Expectancy Widening

By Staff Reporters

MEN versus WOMEN

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The gap in life expectancy between men and women is widening, and Covid was primarily to blame.

CITE: https://www.r2library.com/Resource

In 2021, women’s life expectancy was 79.3, while men’s was 73.5—the largest gap since 1996, according to a new study in JAMA Internal Medicine. Covid contributed to 40% of the difference, as men are more likely to work in industries with high rates of exposure, like transportation (and women are more likely to be vaccinated).

COVID: https://medicalexecutivepost.com/2022/05/17/update-the-grim-covid-reality/

But the opioid epidemic was also a major factor: Drug overdoses, which are more common in men than women, accounted for about 30% of the life expectancy gap.

VIDEO: https://medicalexecutivepost.com/2022/08/31/what-is-the-baltimore-nod/

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What is “COMPASSION FADE?”

A Cognitive Bias of the Post Corona Virus Pandemic Era

Courtesy: www.CertifiedMedicalPlanner.org

By Dr. David E. Marcinko MBA MEd CMP

Compassion Fade is a cognitive bias that predisposes people to behave more compassionately towards a small number of identifiable victims than to a large number of anonymous ones.

LINK: https://www.amazon.com/Dictionary-Health-Insurance-Managed-Care/dp/0826149944/ref=sr_1_4?ie=UTF8&s=books&qid=1275315485&sr=1-4

It is the psychological explanation to the known phenomenon alluded to by Joseph Stalin in his famous quote “The death of one man is a tragedy; the death of millions is a statistic”.

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LINK: https://www.publichealthpost.org/research/compassion-fade/

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BUSINESS, FINANCE, INVESTING AND INSURANCE TEXTS FOR DOCTORS:

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Our iMBA e-Book Sales and Service

The Institute of Medical Business Advisors is a leading national scope provider of healthcare economics, finance, investing, managerial accounting, policy, management and business administration education and medical practice management textbooks, reports, hand-books, dictionaries, journals, white-papers, fair-market valuations [FMV] and legal advisory opinions using multi-platform and traditional seminars and channels of knowledge distribution. iMBA helps the nation’s financial, healthcare and education professionals make decisive improvements in their direction and performance by empowering them through unbiased information, consultants and proprietary tools, books, templates and B-school styled case models.A virtuous “win-win” situation for all concerned.

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The firm serves universities, medical, business, graduate and nursing schools; physicians, dentists, attorneys and legal societies – accountants, financial service providers, stock brokers, RIAs, wealth and hedge fund managers – emerging entities, hospitals, clinics, outpatient centers, CXOs and their BODs – the press, media and related academic entities.

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The Hemline Stock Market Index

What’s Up?

[By staff reporters]

According to Wikipedia, the hemline index is a theory presented by economist George Taylor in 1926. The theory suggests that hemlines on women’s dresses rise along with stock prices.

In good economies, we get such results as miniskirts (as seen in the 1920s and the 1960s), or in poor economic times, as shown by the 1929 Wall Street Crash, hems can drop almost overnight.

Non-peer-reviewed research in 2010 supported the correlation, suggesting that “the economic cycle leads the hemline with about three years”.

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Conclusion

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Speaker: If you need a moderator or speaker for an upcoming event, Dr. David E. Marcinko; MBA – Publisher-in-Chief of the Medical Executive-Post – is available for seminar or speaking engagements. Contact: MarcinkoAdvisors@msn.com

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Risk Management, Liability Insurance, and Asset Protection Strategies for Doctors and Advisors: Best Practices from Leading Consultants and Certified Medical Planners™8Comprehensive Financial Planning Strategies for Doctors and Advisors: Best Practices from Leading Consultants and Certified Medical Planners™

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The Medicare Cost Control Paradox?

WHAT IS THE “MEDICARE COST CONTROL EFFICIENCY” PARADOX?

The 800 Pound Gorilla in the Medical Treatment Room

By Staff Reporters

Blogger Ezra Klein opined more than a decade ago that one of the dirty little secrets of the health-care system is that Medicare has done a much better job controlling costs than private health insurers. It is a paradox!

DEFINITION: A paradox is a seemingly absurd or self-contradictory statement or proposition that when investigated may prove to be well founded or true.

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QUERY:  But, what about Medicare, cost control efficiency, today?

Medicare Will Not Cover These 6 Medical Costs

LINK: https://tinyurl.com/2s38xwff

Your thoughts are appreciated.

THANK YOU
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What is OBSERVATIONAL BIAS?

EVIDENCE BASED MEDICINE

By Staff Reporters

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Observer bias occurs in research when the beliefs or expectations of an observer (or investigator) can influence the data that’s collected in a study.

Cite: https://www.amazon.com/Dictionary-Health-Information-Technology-Security/dp/0826149952/ref=sr_1_5?ie=UTF8&s=books&qid=1254413315&sr=1-5

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Supporting Teachers: Reducing Observational Bias - TeacherToolkit

This causes the results of a study to be unreliable and hard to reproduce in other research settings.

READ HERE IN MEDICINE: https://www.ebmconsult.com/articles/observational-bias-statistical-analysis

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RISK MANAGEMENT: https://www.routledge.com/Risk-Management-Liability-Insurance-and-Asset-Protection-Strategies-for/Marcinko-Hetico/p/book/9781498725989

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BUSINESS MEDICINE: https://www.amazon.com/Business-Medical-Practice-Transformational-Doctors/dp/0826105750/ref=sr_1_9?ie=UTF8&qid=1448163039&sr=8-9&keywords=david+marcinko

Thank You

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What is Stock Brokerage Company “Payment For Order Flow”?

By Staff Reporters

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Payment for order flow, or PFOF, is a tactic some brokerages use to rake in piles of cash. Payment for order flow (PFOF) is a form of compensation, usually in terms of fractions of a penny per share, that a brokerage firm receives for directing orders for trade execution to a particular market maker or exchange. Payment for order flow is common in options markets, and is increasingly found in equity (stock market) transactions.

CITE: https://www.r2library.com/Resource/Title/082610254

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How does it impact everyday investors?

The “P” in PFOF stands for “payment.” That’s because PFOF gets stock brokers paid. It starts when brokers direct trade orders to a particular e-trading firm (like Mountain Securities, for example) instead of routing the trades straight to exchanges. At that point, the e-trading firm may be able to collect the difference between the bid and the ask price, and the brokerages get a cut of that profit. It’s the proverbial “You scratch your broker’s back through their bespoke Ermenegildo Zegna suit, and they’ll scratch yours.”

According to Lillian Stone, some industry experts argue that PFOF is a conflict of interest. (The practice came under scrutiny last year when US brokers made billions on meme stock trading.) You want your broker to get you the best possible prices during a trade, right? Well, if your broker is incentivized to work with one specific e-trading firm, there’s a chance you may not get the sweetest deal—but they’ll line their pockets all the same.

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PSYCHOLOGICAL “TRAPS” of Investing

MIND TRAPS PHYSICIAN INVESTORS MUST REDUCE AND AVOID AT ALL COSTS

See the source image

By Dr. David E. Marcinko MBA MEd CMP®

SPONSOR: http://MarcinkoAssociates.com

CMP logo

SPONSOR: http://www.CertifiedMedicalPlanner.org

As human beings, our brains are booby-trapped with psychological barriers that stand between making smart financial decisions and making dumb ones. The good news is that once you realize your own mental weaknesses, it’s not impossible to overcome them.

CITE: https://www.r2library.com/Resource/Title/0826102549

In fact, Mandi Woodruff, a financial reporter whose work has appeared in Yahoo! Finance, Daily Finance, The Wall Street Journal, The Fiscal Times and the Financial Times among others; related the following mind-traps in a September 2013 essay for the finance vertical Business Insider; as these impediments are now entering the lay-public zeitgeist.

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8 Psychological Traps All Stock Investors Should Avoid - YouTube

 Anchoring happens when we place too much emphasis on the first piece of information we receive regarding a given subject. For instance, when shopping for a wedding ring a salesman might tell us to spend three months’ salary. After hearing this, we may feel like we are doing something wrong if we stray from this advice, even though the guideline provided may cause us to spend more than we can afford.

 Myopia makes it hard for us to imagine what our lives might be like in the future. For example, because we are young, healthy, and in our prime earning years now, it may be hard for us to picture what life will be like when our health depletes and we know longer have the earnings necessary to support our standard of living. This short-sightedness makes it hard to save adequately when we are young, when saving does the most good.

 Gambler’s fallacy occurs when we subconsciously believe we can use past events to predict the future. It is common for the hottest sector during one calendar year to attract the most investors the following year. Of course, just because an investment did well last year doesn’t mean it will continue to do well this year. In fact, it is more likely to lag the market.

 Avoidance is simply procrastination. Even though you may only have the opportunity to adjust your health care plan through your employer once per year, researching alternative health plans is too much work and too boring for us to get around to it. Consequently, we stick with a plan that may not be best for us.

 Loss aversion affected many investors during the stock market crash of 2008. During the crash, many people decided they couldn’t afford to lose more and sold their investments. Of course, this caused the investors to sell at market troughs and miss the quick, dramatic recovery.

 Overconfident investing happens when we believe we can out-smart other investors via market timing or through quick, frequent trading. Data convincingly shows that people who trade most often underperform the market by a significant margin over time.

 Mental accounting takes place when we assign different values to money depending on where we get it from. For instance, even though we may have an aggressive saving goal for the year, it is likely easier for us to save money that we worked for than money that was given to us as a gift.

MORE: https://medicalexecutivepost.com/2021/09/04/more-on-money-psychology/

RELATED: https://medicalexecutivepost.com/2014/12/15/on-internet-investing-psychology/

 Herd mentality makes it very hard for humans to not take action when everyone around us does. For example, we may hear stories of people making significant profits buying, fixing up, and flipping homes and have the desire to get in on the action, even though we have no experience in real estate.

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Risk Management, Liability Insurance, and Asset Protection Strategies for Doctors and Advisors : Best Practices from Leading Consultants and Certified Medical Planners™ book cover

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