VALUE INVESTING: Great Again!

By Vitaliy Katsenelson CFA

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The stock market bubble that I’ve been writing about for the last few years is finally bursting. For the first time in almost a decade, it feels like common sense has stopped being a painful headwind and is turning into a tailwind. 

Paying any price for the stocks of companies that were growing revenues but had no hint of profitability and were diluting shareholders by giving away 10% of shares in stock-based compensation every year is an approach that has stopped working. 

Investors are discovering that the price you pay matters, eventually. Many of these companies are down 70-80% from their highs and are still expensive. 

Rising interest rates are making value investing great again! 


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Intentional Leader: What Does Our Irrationality Teach Us?

As I read Predictably Irrational by Dan Ariely, I found his ideas not only enlightening to understand my own predictable irrationality but also to think through ideas on motivation and change management for our teams. 1️⃣ Context matters – we find it hard to understand things in absolute terms so explain value in relative terms […]

What does our irrationality teach us — Intentional Leader

DIGITAL SECURITY and the American Dental Association [ADA]

By Darrell K. Pruitt DDS

Digital security and the ADA

I wrote the following letter four years ago today. Neither The Digital Dental Record nor its sponsor, The American Dental Association, responded. In fact, a few years later, The Digital Dental Record was predictably hacked and more than 500 dentists, including many ADA members, were victims of a breach of the ADA’s favored digital record system. The ADA is still silent, but they did however, terminate their business relationship with The Digital Dental Record.

Dear The Digital Dental Record,

Thanks for your response on Linkedin to my concerns about the security of EHRs compared to paper. To be honest with you, I’m pleasantly surprised. Contrary to the norm of what I consider an open and free market, very few vendors in the dental IT industry seem willing to openly discuss the dangers or cost of software they hope to sell to dentists – who obviously don’t ask the right questions. That is why I respectfully decline your offer of a private telephone conversation.

You know my name is Darrell Pruitt because it heads my post. I never hide it. Whoever you are, you should probably show potential customers the respect of accountability through transparency. After all, The Digital Dental Record is the only EHR system endorsed by the ADA. I hope that still stands for something of value.    

If you have any non-anecdotal evidence on which you base your bold claim that DDS Safe R2 is more secure than paper dental records, please share it. I’ll be transparent:  Nobody believes you. Then again, maybe “Luddites” who question the security of digital records are simply wrong. Here’s your chance to show the nation why the ADA chose to endorse The Digital Dental Record above all other electronic dental record systems.

D. Kellus Pruitt DDS

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SAD: Doctors, FAs and the Winter Blues

SEASONAL AFFECTATION DISORDER

Out … Like a Light!

DST: Daylight saving time, also known as daylight savings time or daylight time, and summer time, is the practice of advancing clocks during warmer months so that darkness falls at a later clock time.

BUT – Do you have trouble fitting daylight into your winter lifestyle? Or, have difficulty seeing medical patients, making hospital rounds, or serving consulting or financial advisory clients? Maybe it’s SAD?

But, how do you cope with the long dark, days of December and January?

To raise awareness of SAD, First Choice has brought together statistics from sources such as SADA, SAD.org.uk, Bupa and the Mood Disorders Society of Canada to create this new infographic.

In it you can find out how much daylight office workers receive year-round, as well as a collection of facts that can help you recognize and treat SAD. With December and the winter solstice drawing in we are certainly in for some short days in the coming weeks.

Conclusion           

And so, your thoughts and comments on this ME-P are appreciated. Regardless of occupation, how do you cope with SAD?

Feel free to review our top-left column, and top-right sidebar materials, links, URLs and related websites, too. Then, subscribe to the ME-P. It is fast, free and secure.

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PHARMACISTS: Retail Burnout Shortage?

By Staff Reporters

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DEFINITION: Retail pharmacist work in a retail setting rather than in a hospital. They are responsible for dispensing and controlling both prescription and non-prescription medicine, advising customers on general healthcare and must work to high legal and ethical guidelines.

CITE: https://www.r2library.com/Resource/Title/082610254

Today, retail pharmacies across the board are struggling to hire and retain enough pharmacists and pharmacy technicians to keep up with the increased pandemic-related demand for vaccinations and prescriptions. On top of that, pharmacist burnout has prompted companies like Walgreens to reduce the workloads of their employees.

The stakes are high. A decline in pharmacy school enrollees and a seemingly tight job market for those graduates makes it hard to replace departing staff.

“One of the challenges in healthcare in general is that it has been a difficult couple of years for those working in this industry. And pharmacy isn’t immune to that,” said Nate Shenck, a managing director and senior partner at Boston Consulting Group.

To tackle the worker shortage, Walgreens announced it would invest $265 million in its pharmacy staff in FY 2023. Those funds are earmarked for raises, additional training and career development opportunities, and larger scholarships for pharmacy students, Erin Loverher, a spokesperson at Walgreens, said via email.

MORE: https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/companies/pharmacies-are-cutting-hours-and-closing-stores-what-it-means-for-customers/ar-AA15iBOC?cvid=bfc3491382f64937b71476a89016ae5b

PS: Some retailers, such as CVS and Kroger, are limiting the sale of children’s pain relievers. Demand for pediatric pain meds has spiked due to the “tripledemic” of respiratory illnesses spreading right now.

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DAILY UPDATE: Winter Solstice, Tele-Health, Retiree Withdrawal Rates, Crypto and the Markets

By Staff Reporters

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The Winter Solstice, or the December Solstice, is the point at which the path of the sun in the sky is farthest south. At the Winter Solstice, the sun travels the shortest path through the sky resulting in the day of the year with the least sunlight and therefore, the longest night.

Telehealth extension: Tucked in the new Congress’ spending bill is an extension of HHS rules that made telehealth more accessible during the pandemic. But the provision, which extends the flexibility through the end of 2024, falls far short of a push from some lawmakers who wanted to make that flexibility permanent.

Traditional guidance says not to spend more than 4% of your retirement savings in the first year to protect yourself from running out of money in your golden years. A new recommendation puts that figure at 3.8% with a 30-year time horizon, according to researchers at Morningstar Inc., a half-point higher than the 3.3% withdrawal they recommended in 2022 due to expectations for lower future investment returns. That means if you retire this year with a $640,000 portfolio invested 50% in stocks and 50% in bonds, you should take out no more than $24,320 in 2023.

CITE: https://www.r2library.com/Resource/Title/082610254

Following the downfall of Sam Bankman-Fried and FTX in November, cryptocurrency trading volumes plummeted 50%. Since last year, crypto’s market cap has lost nearly three-fourths of its value, with bitcoin and ethereum, both down nearly 75% from their record-highs in November of 2021.

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U.S. equities finished higher in choppy action, posting the first gains in four sessions, as investors digested a host of monetary policy decisions from central banks in Asia. The Bank of Japan and People’s Bank of China kept their respective benchmark interest rates unchanged, but the former surprisingly tweaked its yield curve control policy.

Equity news was on the light side today, as General Mills beat earnings estimates and raised its full-year guidance, and shares of Steel Dynamics gained ground after it was announced that it would replace ABIOMED in the S&P 500.

On the economic front, housing starts declined less than anticipated, while building permits fell much more than expectations. Treasury yields rose, particularly on the long end of the curve, while the U.S. dollar fell, crude oil prices saw a modest increase, and gold prices rallied.

Asian stocks finished broadly lower and market in Europe diverged amid the host of monetary policy decisions.

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Performance Coaching for Doctors? [A Voting and Opinion Poll]

On the Need  for Coaching Medical Professionals

Join Our Mailing List

Like some other folks, doctors may benefit from having an objective, outside consultant or coach advise them on how to maximize their medical practice and/or personal performance.

In fact, it’s becoming a popular service, particularly as the ACA, market volatility, heightened insurer and patient demands, and profit pressures are challenging physicians in ways that may not be familiar to them.

But, not all coaches are created equal. What is a coach? What are the risks and benefits? Is this a real need or perceived marketing ploy in a time of tumult?

Q: And so, should doctors hire a performance coach?

Conclusion            

And so, your thoughts and comments on this ME-P are appreciated. Please review our top-left column, and top-right sidebar materials, links, URLs and related websites, too. Then, subscribe to the ME-P. It is fast, free and secure.

Speaker: If you need a moderator or speaker for an upcoming event, Dr. David E. Marcinko; MBA – Publisher-in-Chief of the Medical Executive-Post – is available for seminar or speaking engagements. Contact: MarcinkoAdvisors@msn.com

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RULE: Know Your [Financial Services] Customer

By Staff Reporters

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Know Your Customer (KYC) guidelines in financial services require that professionals make an effort to verify the identity, suitability, and risks involved with maintaining a business relationship. The procedures fit within the broader scope of a bank’s anti-money laundering (AML) policy.

MORE: https://www.businessinsider.com/personal-finance/know-your-customer

KYC processes are also employed by companies of all sizes for the purpose of ensuring their proposed customers, agents, consultants, or distributors are anti-bribery compliant, and are actually who they claim to be. Banks, insurers, export creditors, and other financial institutions are increasingly demanding that customers provide detailed due diligence information.

RELATED: https://www.swift.com/news-events/news/how-bnp-paribas-and-basf-are-streamlining-their-kyc-information-collection-process

Initially, these regulations were imposed only on the financial institutions but now the non-financial industry, fintech, virtual assets dealers, and even non-profit organizations are liable to oblige.

CITE: https://www.r2library.com/Resource/Title/082610254

MORE: https://medicalexecutivepost.com/2022/12/18/ftx-scandal-who-is-john-j-ray-iii/

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DAILY UPDATE: Sovereign Wealth Funds, Mortgages and the Dimming U.S. Markets

By Staff Reporters

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Sovereign wealth funds could be selling roughly $29 billion in equities by the end of December. Meanwhile, U.S. defined benefit pension plans would need to shift up to $70 billion from equities to bonds to hit their targets, reports Bloomberg quoting the JPMorgan estimates. “The recent equity market correction and bond rally are consistent with the rebalancing hypothesis,” Bloomberg quoted Vincent Deluard, a macro strategist at StoneX. 

DEFINITION: A sovereign wealth fund, sovereign investment fund, or social wealth fund is a state-owned investment fund that invests in real and financial assets such as stocks, bonds, real estate, precious metals, or in alternative investments such as private equity fund or hedge funds. Sovereign wealth funds invest globally.

CITE: https://www.r2library.com/Resource/Title/082610254

And, in a recent interview with CNN, Bank of America CEO Brian Moynihan said he’s concerned the housing market will continue to challenge buyers in the coming years. Moynihan pointed to sky-high mortgage rates as a big reason buyers might continue to struggle — especially first-time buyers with more limited financial resources. Moynihan also said there could be two more years of pain in the housing market before things cool off and homes become more available and affordable. And that’s a tough pill to swallow.

Finally, U.S. stocks were lower, adding to last week’s declines, as the global markets continued to grapple with the ultimate impact of aggressive monetary policy tightening around the world. Last week, the Fed, European Central Bank, Bank of England, and Swiss National Bank all increased their benchmark interest rates by 50 basis points, fostering recession concerns.

Treasury yields traded higher, and the U.S. dollar was unchanged, while crude oil gained ground, and gold was lower.

Other equity news was light, as L3Harris Technologies announced an agreement to acquire Aerojet Rocketdyne with an enterprise value of $4.7 billion, while shares of Madrigal Pharmaceuticals surged after positive trial results for its NASH and liver fibrosis treatment.

A busy week of housing data commenced, as the NAHB’s December Housing Market Index unexpectedly deteriorated.

Asia finished mostly lower as China’s COVID concerns weighed on sentiment, though European stocks were mostly higher, rebounding from last week’s decline as the global markets digest the recent rate hikes on both sides of the pond.

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HEALTH GORILLA: A New Health Data Interoperability Start-Up

By Staff Reporters

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Health Gorilla is in the business of health data interoperability and the double-backflip this startup is doing to both make clinical data an easily accessible commodity – while also making sure that access to that data adheres to the privacy rules established by the US government – takes a minute to understand, but is critically important for the future of many health tech businesses.

LINK http://www.HealthGorilla.com

And, it’s not often that 10,000-plus like-minded individuals come together for a common cause. Luckily in the healthcare space, we have HLTH – bringing together the entire health ecosystem to focus on innovation and transformation.

CITE: https://www.r2library.com/Resource/Title/082610254

So for Health Gorilla, last month’s four-day event in Las Vegas was a most successful conference.

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AUTO INSURANCE and the [Rising] Corona Virus Flu

By Staff Reporters

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Here’s what Covid vaccines have to do with auto insurance

A new study of 11 million adults in Canada revealed that people who weren’t vaccinated against Covid were 72% more likely to get into car accidents where at least one person had to go to the hospital.

CITE: https://www.r2library.com/Resource/Title/082610254

Now, that doesn’t mean your jab protects against car accidents, of course, but it does suggest that folks who reject public health recommendations might also reject road rules. The difference was striking enough that the researchers said doctors should discuss road safety with unvaccinated patients, and that car insurance companies might want to factor it into their rates.

BUT ALWAYS REMEMBER :https://medicalexecutivepost.com/2021/02/05/correlation-is-not-causation/

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FTX SCANDAL: Who is John J. Ray III?

By Staff Reporters

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FTX’s New Chief Executive Officer?

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John J. Ray III (born January 1959) is an American attorney and insolvency professional. He specializes in recovering funds from failed corporations. He was appointed CEO of cryptocurrency exchange FTX in the aftermath of its November 2022 collapse.

MORE: https://financialservices.house.gov/uploadedfiles/hhrg-117-ba00-wstate-rayj-20221213.pdf

He previously served as chairman of Enron Creditors Recovery Corp., a company tasked with recovering creditor funds from Enron in the wake of its accounting scandal and subsequent collapse. He also worked on the bankruptcies of Nortel, Residential Capital, and Overseas Shipholding.

CITE: https://www.r2library.com/Resource/Title/082610254

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DAILY UPDATE: Five Stocks to Watch?

By Staff Reporters

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Here are some of the companies the Yahoo Finance team suggests you watch?

Kraft Heinz (KHC) may be on the road to recovery. It announced stronger-than-expected earnings, with CEO Miguel Patricio saying that the company is making “good progress” on identifying the problems with its past performance. But he admitted they’re still delivering results “below our potential.”

Altria’s (MO) third-quarter earnings beat Wall Street estimates but the company revealed it is writing down a third of its investment in Juul. The company wrote-down $4.5 billion of its $12.8 billion investment in the vaping company. Juul is facing lawsuits and potential new regulations after an outbreak of vaping related illnesses.

Ford (F) and the UAW have reached an agreement to hold-off a strike. The new contract includes $6 billion worth of investment in U.S. facilities and adding 8,500 jobs to Ford’s workforce. This deal is expected to follow the same guidelines as the GM contract and include lump-sum payments and wage increases.

Former Secretary of State and Exxon Mobile (XOM) CEO Rex Tillerson is insisting that Exxon Mobile did not lie about the company’s plan for the financial risks of climate change. Tillerson testified for three and a half hours in the securities fraud trial in New York, denying that the company’s plans were meant to dupe investors. Exxon Mobile earnings are due out tomorrow before the opening bell.

Finally, it could be a very Merry X-mass for Hershey (HSY). A recent survey found Reese’s Peanut Butter Cups, made by Hershey, are the No. 1 favorite candy for Halloween. Snickers, made by privately-owned Mars, were a distant second. The National Retail Federation says Americans will spend $2.6 billion on Halloween candy this year.

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TURQUOISE HEALTH? Compare Prices Before Receiving Medical Care

By Staff Reporters

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Last year, all hospitals were required to list their prices for elective services on an annual basis. Whether you have insurance or plan to pay cash – find and compare prices.

CITE: https://www.r2library.com/Resource/Title/082610254

So, just like you wouldn’t buy a car, rent an apartment or even order food without knowing the cost, you shouldn’t pay blindly for healthcare.

Now you can compare prices before showing up for treatment.

READ MORE: https://turquoise.health/

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DAILY UPDATE: Another Lower Week for the Stock Markets

By Staff Reporters

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U.S. equities declined, posting a second-straight weekly loss, as recession worries have ratcheted higher in the wake of a host of global central bank actions earlier this week. The Fed’s mid-week 50 basis point rate increase was followed by similar actions from the European Central Bank, the Bank of England, and Swiss National Bank. The moves came amid an evident slowdown in global economic growth, with data released today showing most manufacturing and services PMIs domestically and across the globe continue to see a contraction in activity, adding fuel to the recessionary fears.

Treasury yields diverged, and the U.S. dollar was little changed, while crude oil prices fell, and gold traded to the upside. The equity front was relatively quiet, but Adobe’s quarterly results beat the Street on the top line, and the company reaffirmed its guidance, while shares of Darden Restaurants fell despite posting better-than-expected earnings and an upbeat outlook.

Asian stocks were mixed and European stocks saw widespread losses, as the global markets continued to digest the flood of monetary policy decisions around the world.

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PUMPERS & DUMPERS: Social Media Influencers Charged in Scheme

By Staff Reporters

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DEFINITION: Pump and dump (P&D) is a form of securities fraud that involves artificially inflating the price of an owned stock through false and misleading positive statements, in order to sell the cheaply purchased stock at a higher price. Once the operators of the scheme “dump” (sell) their overvalued shares, the price falls and investors lose their money. This is most common with small-cap cryptocurrencies and very small corporations/companies, i.e. “microcaps“.

CITE: https://www.r2library.com/Resource/Title/082610254

While fraudsters in the past relied on cold calls, the Internet now offers a cheaper and easier way of reaching large numbers of potential investors through spam email, investment research websites, social media, and misinformation.

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And so, Federal prosecutors and the SEC have accused seven popular Twitter and Discord users of wielding social media to manipulate stock prices—pumping the shares and then selling off mass quantities for profit once they rose.

An additional defendant, whose Twitter handle was @DipDeity, was charged with aiding and abetting the alleged fraud for hosting a podcast that featured and promoted the seven influencers as skilled traders to follow.

Each influencer charged had well over 100,000 followers and, according to the SEC, the group earned about $100 million total in the scheme.

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Will there be a Santa Clause Rally this Year?

WHAT IS THE “WEALTH EFFECT”

Courtesy: www.CertifiedMedicalPlanner.org

And … Will it Cause a Santa Clause Rally this Year?

The “WEALTH EFFECT” is the change in spending that accompanies a change in perceived wealth. Usually the wealth effect is positive: spending changes in the same direction as perceived wealth.

A “SANTA CLAUSE” rally describes sustained increases in the stock market that occur in the last weeks of December through the first two trading days in January. Explanations include the wealth effect, tax considerations, and the investing of holiday bonuses.

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Santa

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Assessment

Another theory is that some very large institutional investors, a number of whom are more sophisticated and pessimistic, tend to go on vacation at this time leaving the market to retail investors, who tend to be more bullish.

QUESTION: So, do you think we will have a Santa Clause rally this year?

Please be binary in your answer: YES or NO. Your thoughts are appreciated.

INVESTING, BUSINESS AND FINANCIAL PLANNING FOR DOCTORS

Comments Appreciated

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Comprehensive Financial Planning Strategies for Doctors and Advisors: Best Practices from Leading Consultants and Certified Medical Planners™

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PODCAST: Industrial Revolution – Healthcare Revolution

SEE THE FUTURE BY LOOKING BACK

By Eric Bricer MD

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CITE: https://www.r2library.com/Resource/Title/082610254

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PFOF: New SEC Rules Not Thrown Out Entirely!

By Staff Reporters

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DEFINE: https://wordpress.com/post/medicalexecutivepost.com/274910

DEFINITION: https://www.cfainstitute.org/-/media/documents/issue-brief/payment-for-order-flow.ashx

CITE: https://www.r2library.com/Resource/Title/082610254

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Yesterday the SEC proposed the biggest update to the stock trading rules book since 2005. The four proposed rules may become the magnum opus of Gary Gensler, who took over as SEC chair after the meme stock mayhem of 2021. The rules aim to get retail traders better prices by targeting a method of executing trades called payment for order flow (PFOF). PFOF works like this:

  • Brokers like Robinhood send trades to wholesalers like Citadel, which profit off the difference between the individual trader’s proposed price and the price they actually make the trade for.
  • Wholesalers pay brokers a small fee for the privilege of making the trade, and *juicy detail alert* those “small fees” make up a huge chunk of the brokers’ revenue.

Gensler has long argued that PFOF limits competition and encourages brokers to gamify risky trading behavior—like vetting your life savings on GameStop stock. The practice is banned in the UK and Canada.

But the SEC has definitely put it in the “no longer sparks joy” pile

Under the most significant rule proposed yesterday, the “order competition” rule, wholesalers would have to send most retail investors’ trades to an auction where dealers compete to fulfill them for the best price.

The wholesaler only gets to fulfill any leftover trades that no one has bid on. Some on Wall Street argue this will be the most common scenario so the rule won’t have its intended effect, but Gensler thinks auctions could save individual traders up to $1.5 billion per year.

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DAILY UPDATE: Markets Down Amid FOMC’s Monetary Policy

By Staff Reporters

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U.S. equities did an about-face and finished lower following the monetary policy decision from the Fed. The Central Bank increased the target for its benchmark interest rate by 50 basis points (bps), which was widely expected and a moderation from the 75-bp hikes over the past four meetings. However, in his presser Chairman Powell reiterated that the Committee still had a ways to go to reach its goals.

Treasury yields finished little changed in choppy trading after the Fed’s announcement, and the U.S. dollar was lower, while crude oil prices gained ground and gold traded to the downside.

Equity news was on the lighter side, as Delta Air Lines increased its Q4 earnings outlook and offered upbeat long-term guidance, while Lennox International issued a 2023 forecast that missed estimates.

On the economic front, mortgage applications snapped a two-week losing streak, and import prices moderated more than expected.

Asia finished mostly higher following yesterday’s favorable U.S. inflation report, while markets in Europe diverged as investors awaited today’s Fed decision, which will be followed by tomorrow’s announcements from the European Central Bank and Bank of England.

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CITE: https://www.r2library.com/Resource/Title/082610254

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PODCAST: Financial Deception in Healthcare

THIRTY EXAMPLES

By Eric Bricker MD

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Citation: https://www.r2library.com/Resource/Title/0826102549

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ELIXIR: Rite Aid’s New PBM [mail order pharmacy]

By Staff Reporters

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When Rite Aid dropped roughly $2 billion in 2015 to buy its pharmacy benefit management (PBM) subsidiary now known as Elixir, the company had framed the investment as a strategic move to compete in the healthcare marketplace among rivals like CVS and Walgreens.

The deal quickly helped make Rite Aid $4.1 billion in its newly formed pharmacy services segment—including Elixir and other pharmacy services, according to the company—bolstering its financial standing the next fiscal year. Maybe it would no longer be the ugly duckling next to the cooler, sleeker swans.

It seemed to be working—for a while at least. But by 2018, analysts were recommending Rite Aid sell off Elixir to reduce the parent company’s debt. Still, Rite Aid stuck with Elixir in hopes of boosting its competitiveness in the retail pharmacy scene.

CITE: https://www.r2library.com/Resource/Title/082610254

This year, Rite Aid President and CEO Heyward Donigan was still painting a rosy picture of Elixir, saying in earnings calls that the PBM was gaining more members and Elixir’s operating margins were improving.

But a month after its latest earnings call in September, Rite Aid was hit with a class-action lawsuit accusing the company of making “false and/or misleading statements” to investors about Elixir’s status between April and September of this year.

READ: https://www.healthcare-brew.com/stories/2022/12/09/rite-aid-faces-a-class-action-lawsuit-over-its-pharmacy-benefits-subsidiary

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Musings on a Famous Portfolio Asset Allocation Study

Some Critics Claim Brinson, Hood, and Beebower Conclusions Wrong

[By Dr. David Edward Marcinko MBA CMP™]

http://www.CertifiedMedicalPlanner.org

[Publisher-in-Chief]

Frequently, we hear the axiom that asset allocation is the most important investment decision, explaining 93.6% of portfolio returns. The presumption has been that once the risk tolerance and time horizon have been established, investing is simply a matter of implementing a fixed mix of stocks, bonds, and cash using mutual funds selected for this purpose. This axiom is based on a famous study by Brinson, Hood, and Beebower (BHB) published in the Financial Analysts Journal in July/August 1986. It is the stuff of most modern business school and graduate students in economics and finance.

Enter the Critics

One critic claims that BHB’s conclusions and the interpretation of their conclusions are wrong, stating that because of several methodological problems, BHB needed to make certain assumptions for their analysis to go forward. They assumed that the average asset-class weights for the 10-year period studied are the same as the actual normal policy weights; that investments in foreign stocks, real estate, private placements, and venture capital can be proxied by a mix of stocks, bonds, and cash; and that the benchmarks for stocks, bonds, and cash against which fund performance was measured are appropriate. The author believes that each of these assumptions can lead to a faulty measurement of success or failure at market timing and stock selection.

The Jahnke Study

William Jahnke claims that BHB erred in their focus on explaining the variation of quarterly portfolio returns rather than portfolio returns over the 10-year period studied. According to the study, asset allocation policy explains only a small fraction of the range of 10-year portfolio returns earned by the pension funds reported in the study. The author concluded that this discrepancy is caused by the effect of compounding returns. He adds that BHB were wrong to use variance of quarterly returns rather than the standard deviation. Use of standard deviation would reduce the often cited 93.6% to about 79%. Moreover, BHB did not consider the cost of investing, such as operating expenses, management fees, brokerage commissions, and other trading costs, which are more significant for individual investors than for the pension plans studied. Jahnke claims that excessive costs can reduce wealth accumulation by 50%.

Note: (“The Asset Allocation Hoax,” William W. Jahnke, Journal of Financial Planning, February 1997, Institute of Certified Financial Planners [303] 759-4900).

Assessment

Finally, the author takes issue with establishing long-term fixed asset class weights. Asset allocation should be a dynamic process. Higher equity return expectations should in turn produce larger equity allocations, other things being equal.

Certified Medical Planner

Conclusion

Are doctors different than the average investor noted in this essay?

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DAILY UPDATE: The Markets, Central Bank, Inflation and Robert Kiyosaki on Bitcoin

By Staff Reporters

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U.S. equities were able to finish higher after coming off early solid gains in the wake of the Consumer Price Index (CPI). The November CPI report came in softer-than-expected and seemed to somewhat sooth concerns regarding how aggressive the Fed will remain in its rate hike campaign. This came ahead of tomorrow’s highly anticipated Fed monetary policy decision, with the markets expecting a 50-basis point increase to the target fed funds rate.

Treasury yields tumbled following the inflation data, and the U.S. dollar fell, while crude oil and gold prices were sharply higher. In other economic news, the NFIB Small Business Optimism Index unexpectedly rose.

Equity news was light, as Oracle beat earnings estimates despite the significant impact of the strengthening U.S. dollar, while Raytheon Technologies authorized a $6 billion share repurchase program. European stocks finished higher, getting a boost from the CPI report, while markets in Asia were mixed

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The world’s biggest central banks will this week wrap up the most aggressive year for interest-rate hikes in four decades with their fight against inflation still not over even as their economies slow. The US Federal Reserve on is set to raise its key rate by 50 basis points to a range of 4% to 4.5%, the highest since 2007, and to signal more increases in early 2023.

A day later, the European Central Bank and the Bank of England are likely to follow with half-point moves. And higher borrowing costs are also in the cards in Switzerland, Norway, Mexico, Taiwan, Colombia and the Philippines. 

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Earlier in October, Kiyosaki mentioned that he is bullish on Bitcoin because state-sponsored pension funds are starting to invest in BTC. Kiyosaki has repeatedly cautioned that the U.S. is heading toward an economic collapse. He said in a tweet that amid a financial meltdown, investors could keep their capital intact by loading up on gold, silver, and Bitcoin. At the time of writing, Bitcoin was trading at $17,156, up about 1% in the last seven days. The apex crypto’s market cap stood at around $330 billion. 

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PODCAST: Medical Utilization Management [UM]

By Eric Bricker MD

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NUCLEAR FUSION: New Energy Source?

By Staff Reporters

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Researchers have reportedly made a breakthrough in the quest to unlock a “near-limitless, safe, clean” source of energy: they have got more energy out of a nuclear fusion reaction than they put in. Nuclear fusion involves smashing together light elements such as hydrogen to form heavier elements, releasing a huge burst of energy in the process.

Unlike nuclear fission, the energy reaction we currently use, fusion does not create radioactive waste, and the U.S. Department of Energy estimates that it produces three to four times more energy.

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Scientists had a nuclear breakthrough

The Department of Energy is expected to announce today that scientists at California’s Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory successfully produced a nuclear fusion reaction with a net energy gain (meaning it produced more energy than it used).

Scientists and governments have been trying to make that happen for decades because nuclear fusion, as opposed to the nuclear fission that current nuclear plants use, has the potential to create energy to power the world without producing carbon or radioactive waste. Still, it will be a long time before nuclear fusion becomes commercially viable as a source for energy.

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DJIA Surges!

By Staff Reporters

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The DJIA Briefly surged over 600 points this morning.

WHY DOW?

Inflation data showed the Consumer Price Index rose 0.1% on the month of November, cooler than the expected 0.3% rise. The index rose 7.1% year over year, lower than the 7.3% Econoday estimate.

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In addition, the next meeting Fed meeting kicks off Tuesday with an interest rate decision on Wednesday. While the Fed has already heavily telegraphed a 50-basis-point hike, investors will be looking for further guidance on the Fed’s plans.

Finally, according to the CME’s FedWatch tool, traders place a 79% chance of a 50-basis-point rate hike.

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A Revolutionary New Drug Tool

 

This could be the revolutionary tool drug companies have been waiting for

drug

By MIT Tech Review

 

Mendelian randomization could help bypass large-scale clinical trials by focusing on the genetics of patients.

The backstory:

For years, medical researchers have noted the presence of markers alongside certain traits. For instance, it’s known that a high presence of HDL is tied to a lower risk of heart attacks. But what wasn’t always known was whether the HDL caused the healthy heart, or was just correlated with it.

The breakthrough:

As Gary Taubes explains for us, researchers say that by employing innate genetic differences between people—an inborn susceptibility to alcohol, say, or to higher cholesterol levels in the arteries—they can now mimic, at much less effort and expense, the kinds of large trials that would be necessary to determine if an HDL-lowering medicine is really beneficial.

Random facts:

The new technique, called Mendelian randomization, is already being used by drug companies to make billion-dollar decisions about which drugs to pursue.

Conclusion

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PODCAST: Doctor’s Don’t Disclose Conflicts of Interest

C.O.I.

By Eric Bricker MD

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MICROSOFT: London Stock Exchange Group

By Staff Reporters

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Microsoft plans to buy a 4% stake in the London Stock Exchange Group as part of a 10-year partnership to migrate the exchange’s data platform and tech infrastructure to the cloud and develop its data and analytics business.

The exchange will spend at least $2.8 billion on cloud-related products with Microsoft throughout the decade-long arrangement.

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AMGEN: To Buy Horizon Therapeutics?

By Staff Reporters

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Pharma Giant Amgen Sends Its Estimated $350 Million U.S. Media Business to  Hearts & Science

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(Bloomberg) — Amgen Inc. has agreed to buy Horizon Therapeutics Plc at a valuation of about $26 billion in what would be its biggest-ever acquisition, according to a person familiar with the matter. The US biotechnology giant offered around $116.5 for each Horizon share, said the person, who asked not to be identified as the information is private. The offer price is at a around 20% premium to Horizon’s closing price of $97.29 on Friday.

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Horizon rose as much as 15% to $111.70 in pre-market trading today while Amgen slipped 0.5%. But, the deal or announcement could be delayed and talks could still fall apart.

As of Friday’s close, Horizon shares had surged 24% since the company revealed on Nov. 29th that Amgen, Sanofi SA and a Johnson & Johnson unit were in preliminary talks about a possible acquisition. That pushed its market value to $22 billion, prompting Sanofi to back out Sunday, as J&J did earlier this month. Amgen has a market value of about $149 billion after rising by 24% this year.

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RBP: The Rise of Reference Based Pricing & The Future of Health Care 

By Bill Rusteberg

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The New Payer You Never Heard Of 

For 35 years we have lived in the world of managed care. Consumers have been conditioned to believe networks of “preferred” providers ensure better access, better benefits, lower cost and convenient claim settlement.  

In the beginning managed care worked. Not all hospitals and physician groups were in networks and competition helped create cost savings for consumers and their employers. But over time consumers demanded more access and eventually almost all providers were “preferred” and in-network. Today less than 5% of all claims are out-of-network yet medical costs have increased. While professional providers are typically paid using managed care fee schedules, hospitals and other facilities are usually paid a percentage of whatever they charge, and over time, those charges have continued to increase.  

As a result, we are seeing the rise of Reference Based Pricing (RBP) claim reimbursement strategies. RBP strategies are gaining popularity with self-funded employer plans particularly as a way to bring more transparency and accountability to health care pricing. 

The new payer you never heard of are local employers breaking away from the status quo.  You will not see recognizable logos or insurance company names on their health insurance I.D. cards. You may wonder “what kind of insurance is this?” 

What is Reference Based Pricing? 

RBP sets uniform provider payments relative to a benchmark. The most commonly used benchmark is the Medicare Fee Schedule, a widely known payment methodology. Because Medicare fee schedules are on the low end of provider reimbursement, RBP health plans typically add a margin to ensure fair and equitable payment and profits for medical care givers.  Margins can range from 120% to 150% of Medicare and more.  

PPO networks, on the other hand, set opaque pricing at an arbitrary number to which an arbitrary discount is applied. Instead of this top down approach, RBP health plans utilize a bottom up approach.  

In addition, employers are not privy to negotiated PPO rates while reimbursement allowances are transparent and clearly disclosed in RBP plans. This is one of several important distinctions between managed care pricing strategies and RBP.  

An extension of RBP may include detailed claim audit protocols to facility claims prior to claim settlement. These audits typically produce savings of 5 – 7%. Managed care contracts, on the other hand, typically prohibit or severely limit an employer’s right to audit claims, another important difference.  

The Growth of Reference Based Pricing 

While many readers may view this as something new, it’s simply another form of the indemnity plans that were common prior to the advent of managed care in the early 80’s.  

The first RBP health plan in Texas was established in 2008 in San Antonio. Since then the concept has gained national momentum and is growing most rapidly among mid-size self-funded employers. However, we are beginning to see larger employers such as the state of Montana adopting this strategy for their employee benefit program. The Oklahoma State Medical Association adopted RBP strategies for their member health plans several years ago and has since expanded their program offering to Texas medical providers. 

Medical Community Reaction 

Since inception of Reference Based Pricing plans (RBP) in San Antonio fifteen years ago, professional providers have generally accepted patients insured through these plans.  Professional providers, particularly primary care physicians, may earn more under this payment methodology than earned under many managed care contracts. In addition, RBP plans do not intrude on the physician-patient relationship as there are no contractual terms and conditions providers are bound to accept.  

Hospitals have generally remained opposed to RBP plans, yet few patients are turned away for care because reimbursement levels are fair and reasonable. In those rare instances a patient is turned away RBP plans often arrange a bundled cash payment at mutually agreed reimbursement levels that are often less than what the plan would have otherwise paid.    

Action Plan for Physicians and Their Administrators 

With the explosive grown of RBP plans, physicians and their administrators should establish an action plan for RBP patients or potential patients seeking their services. What transpires at the point of contact with a patient can be critical. A knowledgeable staff insures adequate controls in determining patient financial responsibility. Turning away patients is not always a good business practice and is unnecessary in cases where RBP payment parameters are within a practice’s normal scope of acceptance.  

Always check for network logos on the members’ I.D. card. When calling an unfamiliar health plan or TPA to verify eligibility and benefits, ask what provider network(s) the plan uses for physicians and hospitals.  

If the customer service representative says that there is no hospital or professional network or that the plan is “open access”, ask whether the plan pays hospitals and/or physicians based on a standard reference price or a fixed % of Medicare.  

Staff administration should pre-determine the minimum level of acceptable payment based on a % of Medicare. This will empower intake clerks, at the point of contact, to determine if a plan’s reimbursement level is adequate and approved by administration. This will also assist intake clerks in determining each patient’s responsibility. Some RBP plans clearly indicate the basis of claim payment on member’s I.D. cards, i.e., “Plan Pays XXX% of Medicare.” 

If procedures are regularly performed in a facility setting and there is a choice of hospitals or ambulatory surgery centers, staff should ask whether the plan has any direct contracts or has a good working relationship with any of the local facilities. Most RBP plans have established direct agreements with certain local providers or are interested in doing so.  

It takes very little effort to certify a patient’s financial ability to pay for services. Verification is a phone call away. Intake clerks should be trained to ask the right questions, applying the answers against pre-determined parameters of acceptance rather than reliance upon a list of “approved insurance plans.” Turning patients away at the front desk when their insurance coverage pays as much as or more than “approved” plans is poor business.  

Partnering With Employer Health Plans 

A professional provider would be wise to reach out directly to local employers adopting RBP plans to arrange direct agreements, especially when it is discovered an employer important to the practice has adopted RBP. A direct agreement with an employer sponsored health plan would eliminate balance billing and provide steerage. Typically direct RBP agreements are no more than one page in length and contain a 30 day out clause. There are no third party intermediaries involved. 

Some RBP plans allow professionals to name their price. A sharing arrangement between the health plan and plan member assures full payment based on a mutually agreed pricing benchmark. For example, a plan may set its claim exposure at 120% of Medicare. A professional provider may agree to accept 150% of Medicare. The 30% differential would be borne by the plan member in the form of a pre-set co-pay amount. There would be no co-pay through providers who have agreed to accept the plans benchmark pricing, in this example 120% of Medicare. A tiered co-pay strategy solves provider access issues, benefiting providers, patients and employer health plan budgetary constraints.  

The Future of Reference Based Pricing 

RBP strategies are a transitory phenomenon, a bridge serving as a basis for more change to come in a dynamic market.  

RBP health plans will continue to gain market share in the next several years as more independent third party administrators (TPAs) and insurance companies are offering RBP options with new entrants into the market almost monthly. 

Professional providers should understand that RBP is yet another way to pay health care claims and would be wise to acclimate to this kind of pricing. As the Medicare eligible population of the United States increases from 17% in 2015 to 23% in 2023, professional providers will see more patients at Medicare rates than ever before. The good news for professional providers is RBP plans generally pay more. 

There is good news for employers too. RBP plans give self-funded employers a powerful cost containment tool that can make health care more affordable for their employees.  

You can expect to see a growing number of patients insured through RBP plans seeking your services. It would be good business to understand this growing trend now in order to accommodate them. RBP will create opportunities for physician-led bundles and other direct contracting strategies that benefit local employers, giving you more control and save money for your patients.  

The Future 

Reference Based Pricing is a transitory phenomenon leading to something better for all stakeholders. We are seeing a new trend rising in health care financing that removes third party barriers between patients and their physicians. 

Removing third party intermediaries between providers and the patients they serve is the foundation on which to provide better benefits at a lower cost for health care consumers. Cash pay settlements at the point of service, in real time, will be a major component of that, getting back to the way care and doctor-patient relationships once were, without the intervention of an insurance company. 

Plan members will pay cash at the time of service through plan sponsored funding. Physicians will receive cash payment by way of pre-negotiated electronic super bill at the time of service. No claims filing and no chasing patient share required, saving providers both time and expense. Hospitals will be paid in full on day of service too, saving time and expense filing claims and chasing patient share. 

Community based health plans will adopt a cash pay network of medical caregivers. Access and delivery of care on a local, collaborative basis by mutually controlling costs in a direct relationship with one another as opposed to the indirect relationships we find in our current carrier-driven dynamic will be key to providing community members with responsive and affordable access to care.  

Community health plans will adopt Direct Primary Care as a key focal point for all subsequent care. Capitated rates will replace fee-for-service fee schedules. Primary care physicians will, for the first time in their careers, devote 100% of their working hours to treating patients, not burdened with EMR’s and other administrative functions at the beck and call of third party intermediaries.  

One example of a Community Health Plan is currently under development in central Texas. It will incorporate ER, Lab & Radiology, and direct primary care at a capitated rate of less than $125. A cash based reimbursement wrap for all other covered services through a cash pay provider network will cover remaining covered medical services.  

The reader may find this to be a pipe dream that will never happen. On the contrary, it’s happening now and it’s growing faster than a melting raspa on a scorching August afternoon in deep South Texas. It’s the new payer you’ve never heard of. 

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What is a “Confounding Variable”?

[By Staff Reporters]

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In statistics, a confounding variable (also confounding factor, a confound, or confounder) is an extraneous variable in a statistical model that correlates (directly or inversely) with both the dependent variable and the independent variable.
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IOW: It is an extraneous variable whose presence affects the variables being studied so that the results you get do not reflect the actual relationship between the variables under investigation.
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Risk Management, Liability Insurance, and Asset Protection Strategies for Doctors and Advisors: Best Practices from Leading Consultants and Certified Medical Planners™8Comprehensive Financial Planning Strategies for Doctors and Advisors: Best Practices from Leading Consultants and Certified Medical Planners™
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PODCASTS: Direct Primary Care Medicine

NO HEALTH INSURANCE – NOT FEE for SERVICE

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PODCAST: Never Pay Your First Medical Bill?

Marshall Allen Has a New Healthcare Book Out Called “Never Pay the First Bill.”

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PODCAST: Healthcare is Great for People with Medicare.

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Greater than 90% of Medicare Beneficiaries Are Satisfied with Their Care

By Eric Bricker MD

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INDIVIDUAL: Investment [Financial] Portfolios?

THE RESULTS ARE IN

By Staff Reporters

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Investment portfolios owned by individual investors have lost a combined $350 billion this year, Bloomberg reports. The average retail trader’s portfolio is down 30% in 2022, compared to the S&P’s 17% loss, per Vanda Research. Some estimates put the damage as even worse than that: JPMorgan calculates that retail traders are down 38% this year.

As they’ve watched their portfolios crumble further than SBF’s credibility, these traders aren’t trading nearly as much as they did during peak Covid.

  • At the apex of the meme stock craze in Q1 2021, Charles Schwab was handling 8.4 million daily average trades. In Q3 of this year, it recorded 5.5 million.
  • Robinhood, both an enabler and the villain of the individual trader movement, shed 1.8 million users between Q2 and Q3 this year.

So what happened?

Individual investors piled into a specific set of stocks during the height of the pandemic, and those stocks in particular are getting rocked by shifting trends and the Fed’s rate hikes. Just consider that Tesla, by itself, accounts for ~10% of the average active retail trader’s portfolio. So as the stock plunged ~55% this year, it wiped out $78 billion in value for retail investors, per Vanda.

As for meme stocks?

Good luck trying to send a struggling company to the moon these days. GameStop is down nearly 41% this year, and after its dud of an earnings report this week one analyst wrote that “GameStop’s turnaround plan has proven fruitless so far,” specifically citing the poor performance of its NFT marketplace.

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And so, with retail traders riding the bench during the market downturn, the companies that rely on them for revenue are having to switch up their tactics. This week, according to Neal Freyman of Morning Brew, Robinhood introduced retirement accounts (traditional or Roth IRAs) with a 1% match to lure back users. It may not be a flashy product, but as investors who got burned this year have realized, there are worse things than being boring.

WHAT ABOUT PHYSICIAN INVESTORS?

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ON THE RISE: Healthcare Consumerism!

By Staff Reporters

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As technology continues to rapidly evolve, a corresponding transformation in the healthcare industry is occurring. One of the most significant changes is the shift from traditional healthcare to healthcare consumerism. Patients now have more information available to them than ever before, and they are using this information to make more informed healthcare decisions. Patients are no longer passively accepting the care that is provided to them.

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Instead, they are actively choosing the care that they receive, and are more selective about the providers that they use. As a result, healthcare providers must now focus on providing a better patient experience to attract and retain patients.

Source: Hari Prasad, Physicians Practice [12/8/22]

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WASH SALE RULE: Not For Cryptocurrency?

By Staff Reporters

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DEFINITION

The wash-sale rule prohibits selling an investment for a loss and replacing it with the same or a “substantially identical” investment 30 days before or after the sale. If you do have a wash sale, the IRS will not allow you to write off the investment loss which could make your taxes for the year higher than you hoped.

CITE: https://www.r2library.com/Resource/Title/082610254

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Don’t get soaked by the wash sale

Even if you sell at a loss from a brokerage account or IRA, it still might not want to permanently exit a portfolio position. It may want to get back into an investment now at a cheaper cost with room to re-grow.

BUT – Just wait a moment, according to the IRS “wash-sale” rule.

The IRS will not count a capital loss if, within 30 days before the sale or within 30 days afterwards, the taxpayer is also buying or acquiring a “substantially identical” investment. The rule applies to investments like stocks, bonds, mutual funds, exchange traded funds and options – but not cryptocurrency.

The basic trick is just keeping track of the days. Another skill is considering what counts as “substantially identical” for the fast-moving investor who sees a buying opportunity either 30 days before or after the day of sale.

An investor could sell a stock and buy an exchange traded fund or mutual fund that contains the stock and not run afoul of the rule, Going the other way, from a mutual fund or ETF containing a stock to a direct stock purchase, also will not trigger the rule, he noted.

EXAMPLE: Suppose an investor has several investment accounts — perhaps one is a long-term account and the other is more for short-term trades. The rule applies across the account. So if one sells and the other buys within 30 days before or after, the wash-sale rule will scrap the capital loss.

Buying and selling shares of two different funds tracking the same index within the 30-day period could also cause the wash sale rule to kick in. However, a move like selling a piece of an ETF tracking the S&P 500, and then soon buying an ETF tracking the Russell 1000 Index would be OK according to a tutorial from Charles Schwab SCHW, +3.70%. “That would preserve your tax break and keep you in the market with about the same asset allocation,” an explainer said.

But while someone’s eyeing a repurchase and letting the wash-sale window close one place, they may have a chance to start the tax strategy process in a different part of their portfolio. “There’s really tax loss harvesting opportunities across a number of different asset classes this year.”

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TESTIFY: Bankman-Fried of FTX Goes to the U.S. House Panel

By Mehnaz Yasmin and Kanishka Singh

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FTX’s Sam Bankman-Fried is set to testify before a U.S. House committee on Tuesday, the cryptocurrency exchange’s founder and the congressional panel said on Friday, as regulators investigate his role in the wake of its collapse. The chair of the House of Representatives Committee on Financial Services, Maxine Waters, told Reuters on Thursday that she was prepared to subpoena Bankman-Fried if he did not agree to appear before the panel, which is holding a hearing as part of its probe into FTX.

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In a statement late on Friday, the panel said it would hear from newly appointed FTX CEO John Ray and from Bankman-Fried, FTX’s founder and former CEO, on Tuesday.

“I still do not have access to much of my data — professional or personal. So there is a limit to what I will be able to say, and I won’t be as helpful as I’d like,” Bankman-Fried said on Friday on Twitter. “But as the committee still thinks it would be useful, I am willing to testify on the 13th,” he added.

The hybrid hearing is scheduled for 10 a.m. ET (1500 GMT) on Tuesday, the committee said.

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