The Sraffa–Hayek Economic Debate

By Dr. David Edward Marcinko MBA MEd

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The Sraffa–Hayek debate stands as a pivotal moment in the history of economic thought, highlighting deep philosophical and methodological differences between two influential schools: the Austrian School, represented by Friedrich Hayek, and the neo-Ricardian or Cambridge School, represented by Piero Sraffa. Taking place primarily in the 1930s, this intellectual exchange centered on the nature of capital, the role of equilibrium, and the validity of marginalist theory.

Friedrich Hayek, a staunch advocate of Austrian economics, had developed a theory of business cycles rooted in the mis allocation of capital due to artificially low interest rates. In his framework, interest rates serve as signals that coordinate inter temporal production decisions. When central banks distort these signals, they cause over investment in capital-intensive industries, leading to unsustainable booms followed by inevitable busts. Hayek’s theory was grounded in a time-structured view of capital, emphasizing the importance of temporal coordination in production.

Piero Sraffa, a Cambridge economist and close associate of John Maynard Keynes, challenged Hayek’s assumptions in a 1932 review of Hayek’s book Prices and Production. Sraffa’s critique was both technical and philosophical. He questioned the coherence of Hayek’s notion of a uniform natural rate of interest in a complex economy with heterogeneous capital goods. Sraffa argued that in such an economy, there could be multiple natural rates of interest, making it impossible to define a single rate that equilibrates savings and investment across all sectors.

Moreover, Sraffa criticized the Austrian reliance on equilibrium analysis in a world characterized by uncertainty and institutional complexity. He contended that Hayek’s model was overly abstract and detached from real-world dynamics. This critique foreshadowed Sraffa’s later work, Production of Commodities by Means of Commodities (1960), which laid the foundation for the neo-Ricardian critique of marginalist economics. In that work, Sraffa demonstrated that prices and distribution could be determined without recourse to subjective utility or marginal productivity, challenging the core of neoclassical theory.

The debate had far-reaching implications. For the Austrian School, it exposed vulnerabilities in their capital theory and prompted refinements in their approach to intertemporal coordination. For the broader economics profession, Sraffa’s critique contributed to a growing skepticism about the internal consistency of marginalist value theory, influencing the Cambridge capital controversies of the 1950s and 1960s.

While the Sraffa–Hayek debate did not produce a definitive victor, it underscored the importance of foundational assumptions in economic modeling. It also highlighted the tension between abstract theoretical elegance and empirical relevance—a tension that continues to shape economic discourse today. Ultimately, the debate enriched the intellectual landscape by forcing economists to confront the limitations of their models and to grapple with the complex realities of capital, time, and uncertainty.

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SPEAKING: Dr. Marcinko will be speaking and lecturing, signing and opining, teaching and preaching, storming and performing at many locations throughout the USA this year! His tour of witty and serious pontifications may be scheduled on a planned or ad-hoc basis; for public or private meetings and gatherings; formally, informally, or over lunch or dinner. All medical societies, financial advisory firms or Broker-Dealers are encouraged to submit an RFP for speaking engagements: CONTACT: Ann Miller RN MHA at MarcinkoAdvisors@outlook.com 

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ALTERNATIVE INVESTMENTS: Asset Classes Defined

By A. I. and Staff Reporters

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Here is a broad menu of asset classes and alternative investments to consider:

Real Assets

  • Real Estate: Rental properties, REITs (Real Estate Investment Trusts), land, commercial buildings.
  • Commodities: Gold, silver, oil, natural gas, agricultural products.
  • Collectibles: Art, vintage cars, rare coins, wine, sports memorabilia.

Private Market Investments

  • Private Equity: Investing in private companies, often through venture capital or buyout funds.
  • Venture Capital: Early-stage investments in startups with high growth potential.
  • Angel Investing: Direct investment in startups, usually by individuals.

Intellectual Property & Royalties

  • Music Royalties: Buying rights to songs and earning income from plays or licensing.
  • Patents & Trademarks: Licensing intellectual property for recurring revenue.

Structured Products & Alternatives

  • Hedge Funds: Pooled funds using advanced strategies like short selling, derivatives, and leverage.
  • Structured Notes: Debt securities with embedded derivatives for customized risk-return profiles.
  • Options & Futures: Derivatives for speculation or hedging.

Impact & Sustainable Investing

  • ESG Funds: Focused on environmental, social, and governance criteria.
  • Green Bonds: Bonds that fund environmentally friendly projects.
  • Social Impact Funds: Investments aimed at generating positive societal outcomes.

Tangible Assets

  • Precious Metals: Physical gold, silver, platinum.
  • Farmland & Timberland: Income from agriculture or forestry.
  • Infrastructure: Toll roads, airports, energy grids—often via specialized funds.

Income-Producing Alternatives

  • Peer-to-Peer Lending: Lending money via platforms like LendingClub or Prosper.
  • Annuities: Insurance products that provide guaranteed income streams.
  • Royalties from Books or Software: Passive income from intellectual property.

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Stocks, Commodities, Japan & France

By A.I.

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  • Stocks: The S&P 500 hit its seventh record close in a row today, its longest win streak since May. The NASDAQ was buoyed by big tech, while the DJIA fell.
  • Commodities: Oil climbed thanks to a decision by OPEC+ to boost crude production at a more modest rate than experts expected. Gold continued its record run, rising above $3,900 for the first time ever, while bitcoin hovered just below a new all-time high.
  • Japan and France: Japanese stocks rose after the country elected its first female prime minister, and French stocks dropped after its prime minister quit less than a month into the job.

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The Economy, Stocks and Commodities

By. A.I. and Staff Reporters

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  • Economy: Headline PCE rose from 2.6% on an annual basis in July to 2.7% in August, while core PCE stayed flat at 2.9%—all in line with analyst expectations.
  • Stocks: Solid inflation numbers helped equities arrest their recent selloff and offset the latest batch of tariffs. However, all three major indexes still ended the week lower than where they started.
  • Commodities: Oil climbed as Ukrainian drones continue to strike Russian energy infrastructure. Meanwhile, gold hit another all-time high, and rose above $3,800 for the first time ever at one point today.

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Stocks, Bonds and Commodities

By A.I. and Staff Reporters

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  • Stocks: The NASDAQ rose to its fifth record high of the week, while the S&P 500 and the Dow sank late in the day as investors turned their attention to the FOMC meeting next week.
  • Bonds: While equities climbed all week long, the bond market has been sending signals that weak economic data really isn’t great news.
  • Commodities: Oil rallied after President Trump expressed his growing frustration with Vladimir Putin and threatened further energy and financial sanctions. Meanwhile, the US may ask its G7 counterparts to apply 100% tariffs against China and India for purchasing Russian crude.

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Stocks, Bonds and Commodities

By A.I. and Staff Reporters

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  • Stocks: Markets slowed along yesterday with the S&P 500 and NASDAQ buoyed after a pivotal antitrust ruling for Alphabet pushed big tech stocks higher across the board.
  • Bonds: The 30-year Treasury pushed 5% yesterday as traders fret about the Fed’s independence and the odds of interest rate cuts.
  • Commodities: Oil sank on reports that OPEC+ is contemplating increasing its crude output next month, while gold reached yet another new record high as uncertainty swirling around the future of tariffs continued to rise. JPMorgan analysts now think the precious metal could climb as high as $4,250 by the end of next year.

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Stocks, Bonds and Commodities

By A.I.

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Bonds
: Treasury yields rose yesterday as investors dug into a Federal appeals court ruling last Friday stating that most of President Trump’s tariffs are illegal. The 30-year yield closed in on the key 5% level.
Stocks: Equities tumbled across the board as technology stocks sold off and pulled the rest of the market down with them.
Commodities: Gold hit a new record high as traders hedged against tariff uncertainty and braced themselves for an extremely important US jobs report on Friday that could make or break the case for the Fed to start cutting rates.

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Stocks, Commodities and the FOMC

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  • Stocks: The final trading day of the summer was bad as a selloff in technology stocks took indexes down from recent all-time highs.
  • Fed drama: A judge did not issue a ruling on Fed Governor Lisa Cook’s bid for a temporary restraining order against President Trump, delaying it a few more days and leaving Cook in limbo.
  • Commodities: Gold hit a new all-time high as traders worried about the possibility of the Federal Reserve losing its independence.

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Stocks Up, Bond Yields Down as Commodities Rise and Fall

By A.I and ME-P Staff Reporters

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  • Stocks: The stock markets rose today after Jerome Powell opened the door to interest rate cuts. The Dow soared to a new all-time high, while small-cap stocks in the Russell 2000 had a banner day.
  • Bonds: Yields fell while the chances of a rate cut after the Fed’s next meeting in September rose to 83%.
  • Commodities: Gold rose on rate cut hopes while oil fell as peace talks between Ukraine and Russia stalled. But the biggest winner is coffee: prices have risen for six straight days to cap off its biggest weekly gain since 2021.

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Stocks, Bonds and Commodities

By A.I.

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  • Stocks: The Dow climbed thanks to UnitedHealth and Warren Buffett while the rest of the market sank as the stock rally slowed. But, despite Friday’s decline, both the S&P 500 and NASDAQ wrapped up winning weeks.
  • Bonds: Both 10-year and 2-year Treasury yields continued to climb after Thursday’s PPI reading and Friday’s consumer confidence and retail sales data.
  • Commodities: All eyes were on Anchorage, Alaska as President Trump concluded talks with President Putin—discussions that will be crucial for crude’s future.

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Stocks, Commodities and Trade

By A.I.

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  • Stocks: Markets struggled to pick a direction as investors took a wait-and-see approach ahead of today’s CPI reading—even as Wall Street worries about the data’s reliability.
  • Trade: President Trump asked China, the world’s largest soybean buyer, to quadruple its soybean purchases from the US. He also extended the trade war truce with China by 90 days
  • Commodities: Gold had its worst day in three months as traders waited for the White House to clarify its new tariffs on the key commodity—only for Trump to announce that it won’t be tariffed at all. Meanwhile, Chinese battery giant CATL halted operations at a mine that produces 4% of the world’s lithium, sending prices of the precious metal soaring.

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DAILY UPDATE: Stocks, Commodities and Trade as Stock Markets End Mixed

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  • Stocks: Investors cheered the news of an EU & US trade deal over the weekend, pushing the S&P 500 above 6,400 for the first time ever. But the index gave up most of its gains late in the day as attention turned to a huge week of data ahead (more on that in a minute).
  • Trade: Today was the first day of discussions between US and Chinese negotiators in Stockholm to keep the trade war truce alive. Elsewhere, President Trump foresees a baseline 15% to 20% tariff rate for the rest of the world.
  • Commodities: Gold fell as trade deal hopes heightened investors’ risk appetite, while oil spiked higher after Trump gave Russia a 10- to 12-day deadline to sign a truce with Ukraine.

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According to Bloomberg, 83% of the S&P 500 companies that have reported earnings have outpaced Wall Street’s estimates, putting the index on pace for its best season of beats since the second quarter of 2021.

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Visualize: How private equity tangled banks in a web of debt, from the Financial Times.

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Stocks & Commodities

By A.I.

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  • Stocks: President Trump said there’s a “50/50 chance” of a deal with the EU ahead of next week’s deadline. Investors decided they like those odds, and pushed the NASDAQ and S&P 500 to yet another new closing record high—in fact, the S&P 500 set a new record every day this week. Meanwhile, trade deal talks with Brazil have reportedly stalled.
  • Commodities: Oil fell to a three-week low today as Iran signaled a willingness to come to the negotiating table with European powers for nuclear talks.
  • Hopes of trade deals and less need for a safe haven investment pushed gold prices lower.

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Commodities, Stocks and Bonds

By A.I.

SPONSOR: http://www.CertifiedMedicalPlanner.org

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  • Stocks: Investors were pleased to hear about the trade deal with Japan yesterday and reports of an agreement with the EU coming soon kept the stock rally alive through market close. The S&P 500 notched its 12th new closing record this year, and the NASDAQ ended the day above 21,000 for the first time.
  • Bonds: Treasury yields rose a bit after an auction of 20-year notes was met with strong demand, indicating investor appetite for longer-term US debt.
  • Commodities: Oil inched higher while gold edged lower as investors hedge their bets in anticipation of more trade deals before the August 1st deadline.

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COMMODITIES and STOCKS

By A.I.

SPONSOR: http://www.CertifiedMedicalPlanner.org

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Stocks: Markets started the day on a high note thanks to a fifth straight decline in weekly initial jobless claims and surprisingly strong monthly retail sales. The NASDAQ hit its 10th record closing high of 2025 and the S&P 500 hit its ninth high.

Commodities: Lithium prices popped around the globe after the Chinese government ordered domestic producer Zangge Mining to halt operations. Plus, the US is reportedly set to impose 93.5% tariffs on Chinese imports of graphite, a key component.

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Stocks, Commodities and the FOMC

By A.I.

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  • Stocks: The S&P 500 and Dow tumbled on a mixed bag of bank earnings, while the NASDAQ was buoyed by big news for Nvidia.
  • Federal Reserve Drama: Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent reassured investors that Jerome Powell isn’t getting the boot.
  • Commodities: Oil fell just a bit as Donald Trump is about to hit his 50-day deadline for Russia.

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Stocks and Commodities

By A.I.

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  • Stocks: Markets shrugged off President Trump’s weekend threat of 30% levies against the EU and Mexico, as well as his proposed 100% secondary tariffs against Russia today. Stocks eked out a win across the board, with the NASDAQ climbing to a new record close.
  • Commodities: Oil prices fell while gold took a breather, but the big winner was orange juice futures, which hit a four-month high thanks to Trump’s promise of 50% tariffs on all imports from Brazil. Coffee prices also climbed.

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Bitcoin, Stocks, Oil, Gold and Silver

By A.I.

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  • Stocks: The major Wall Street stock indexes languished. The S&P pulled back from its record high to close the week just a bit lower, but the NASDAQ managed to post a gain across the week.
  • Crypto: Bitcoin hit a new high-water mark above $118,000. Next week, July 14th, Congress hosts “Crypto Week” to discuss regulating the industry in a growth-oriented manner.
  • Commodities: Silver rose to its highest level since 2011, and it’s been even hotter than gold. The metal is up ~27% this year. Oil, meanwhile, ticked higher on speculation that President Trump will place more sanctions on Russia early next week.

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Stocks, Commodities and Crypto-Currency

By A.I.

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  • Stocks: Jobless claims came in lower than expected, the 30-year US bond auction met with strong demand, and Delta Airlines unofficially kicking off earnings season with a solid report. The S&P 500 and the NASDAQ hit record highs.
  • Crypto: Bitcoin reached a record high for the second day in a row, hitting $113,863.31 today. The crypto’s price has stayed above $100k for 60 consecutive days.
  • Commodities: Coffee futures in New York climbed as much as 3.5% in response to President Trump’s threat to slap 50% tariffs on Brazil, which is the top producer of higher-end arabica coffee.

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DAILY UPDATE: Women’s Health, and Commodities, as Stock Markets Struggle

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Record VC investments for women’s health: Venture-backed women’s health startups experienced unprecedented investment last year, according to a new SVB report. The report examines the factors driving such record-breaking funding—like growing recognition of how various health conditions affect women differently and disproportionately, plus the causes and biological drivers behind this imbalance. Read it here.

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  • Stocks: Investors mostly yawned and the major indexes held steady a day after President Trump reignited his trade war by announcing higher tariffs would go into effect on 14 countries starting August 1st. Wall Street banks don’t seem concerned either, as Goldman Sachs and Bank of America became the latest strategists to raise their year-end target for the S&P 500.
  • Commodities: Copper futures popped as much as 17% to a new record, the largest intra-day gain since at least 1988, after Trump said he plans to place a 50% tariff on copper imports.

CITE: https://tinyurl.com/tj8smmes

Visualize: How private equity tangled banks in a web of debt, from the Financial Times.

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DAILY UPDATE: FBI and FDA as Stock Markets Crash

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Essays, Opinions and Curated News in Health Economics, Investing, Business, Management and Financial Planning for Physician Entrepreneurs and their Savvy Advisors and Consultants

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  • The FBI has uncovered $14.6 billion worth of fraudulent claims submitted to Medicare, Medicaid and other government health care programs, the agency said on Monday in conjunction with the Department of Justice (DOJ). The investigation resulted in 324 defendants being charged, including 96 medical professionals.
  • Now, the DOJ, FBI and HHS say they are collaborating to create a health care data fusion center that will help them identify, investigate and prosecute health care fraud.
  • And yesterday, the entities announced a DOJ-HHS False Claims Act Working Group, in which HHS will refer potential False Claims Act violations to the DOJ. Read more about the working group, its members and its goals here.

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Stocks: US equities tumbled from record highs, dragged down by megacaps, as President Trump reignited the dormant trade war with fresh tariff warnings against major trading partners (more on that in a sec). Meanwhile, the dollar bounced 0.5% against a basket of other currencies.

Commodities: Oil gained despite OPEC+ deciding to raise crude production by 548,000 barrels per day beginning in August, a larger-than-expected increase. Ultimately, Wall Street analysts expect oil futures to drop below $60 a barrel by the end of the year due to the increase in production.

CITE: https://tinyurl.com/tj8smmes

Read: FDA Commissioner Marty Makary MD is revamping the agency, with plans to use more AI assistance. (the Wall Street Journal)

Visualize: How private equity tangled banks in a web of debt, from the Financial Times.

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Stocks, Bonds & Commodities

By A.I.

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Stocks, Bonds & Commodities

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Stocks, Deals and Commodities

BY A.I.

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Stocks: The S&P 500 briefly traded a few cents above its February all-time closing high yesterday afternoon, but couldn’t sustain the gain and fell just short at the end of the day. The NASDAQ remains inches away from its record high as well.

Deals: The end of the 90-day tariff pause is less than two weeks away, but the White House said that the July 9th deadline “is not critical.”

Meanwhile, the Treasury Department is doing everything it can to make the dreaded “revenge tax” in the big, beautiful bill irrelevant.

Commodities: Gold and oil had muted moves upward but copper climbed to a three-month high after Goldman Sachs analysts warned of shortages ahead

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Stocks, Economics & Commodities

By AI

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  • Stocks: The S&P 500 and NASDAQ started the day inches away from their all-time highs, but the market rally faltered in mid-afternoon as relief from an Israel/Iran ceasefire faded and investors turned their attention to Friday’s PCE report.
  • Economy: Speaking of inflation, Jerome Powell stuck to his guns during his second day of congressional testimony, endorsing a wait-and-see mentality. President Trump is apparently tired of waiting, and says he has “3 or 4” candidates in mind to replace Powell.
  • Commodities: Oil bounced back after posting its biggest two-day decline since 2022.

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Stocks, Commodities and Japanese Trade

By AI

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  • Stocks: Markets kicked off Friday trading on a high note thanks to comments from Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller that the central bank could lower interest rates as soon as next month.
  • Commodities: Oil prices tumbled at the open after President Trump pushed back his decision to involve the US in the conflict between Israel and Iran by two weeks.
  • Trade: Stocks gave up their early gains on reports that Japan has canceled high-level meetings with the US after President Trump told the country to spend more on defense.

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Stocks, Economy and Commodities

By AI

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  • Stocks: Investors looked past the escalating conflict between Iran and Israel, even as President Trump mulled his options for a US intervention, and stocks rose ahead of today’s Federal Reserve meeting.
  • Economy: Trump called Jerome Powell “a stupid person” hours before the Fed Chair decided to keep interest rates where they were Stocks fell thanks to the Fed’s prediction that inflation will rise to 3.1% by the end of the year, above previous forecasts of 2.8%.
  • Commodities: Gold fell just a hair as analysts called the commodity’s top, while platinum climbed to a four-year high.

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DAILY UPDATE: Stock Markets Struggle

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Essays, Opinions and Curated News in Health Economics, Investing, Business, Management and Financial Planning for Physician Entrepreneurs and their Savvy Advisors and Consultants

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  • Stocks: Markets sagged as fighting between Israel and Iran continued, with investors worried about escalation after President Trump called for the “unconditional surrender” of Iran’s Supreme Leader ​​Ali Khamenei. The Wall Street Journal reported that he is considering a potential US strike against Iran.
  • Commodities: Oil prices popped this morning after Trump warned that Tehran should be evacuated.
  • Bonds: Yields sank after US retail sales came in much lower than anticipated, raising fears of an economic slowdown.

CITE: https://tinyurl.com/2h47urt5

🟢 What’s up

  • Verve Therapeutics exploded 81.50% on the news that the gene-editing company will be acquired by Eli Lilly in a $1.3 billion deal.
  • Reddit popped 6.06% after the social media site rolled out new AI-powered tools for advertisers.
  • BGSF surged 34.25% after the staffing company announced it is selling its professional division to INSPYR Solutions for $99 million.
  • Jabil gained 8.80% thanks to a strong earnings report for the electronics parts supplier.
  • Oil stocks climbed as the conflict between Israel and Iran threatens to grow. Valero Energy rose 2.89%, Chevron gained 1.93%, and Hess added 1.79%.

What’s down

  • Microsoft fell 0.23% after the Wall Street Journal reported that its partnership with OpenAI is falling apart.
  • JetBlue Airways lost 7.88% on the news that it’s cutting costs, including reducing its number of flights, due to softer-than-expected travel demand.
  • Lennar sank 4.42% after the homebuilder beat revenue estimates last quarter but missed profit forecasts.
  • T-Mobile tumbled 4.14% on the news that major shareholder Softbank sold 21.5 million shares of the telecommunications company.
  • Airline stocks sank as the price of oil rose throughout the day. United Airlines lost 6.18%, while Delta Air Lines fell 4.33%.

CITE: https://tinyurl.com/tj8smmes

Visualize: How private equity tangled banks in a web of debt, from the Financial Times.

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Stocks, Commodities and Bonds

By AI

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  • Stocks: Israel and Iran exchanged missile strikes for a fourth day, but investors are betting that the conflict will remain at least somewhat contained. Reports that Iran wants to de-escalate the conflict and even restart nuclear talks seemed to underline that idea, and markets rose strongly throughout the afternoon.
  • Commodities: Gold fell as hopes of a ceasefire between Israel and Iran made investors more bullish, while Iranian oil infrastructure was spared from the attacks, pushing crude prices lower.
  • Bonds: A $13 billion 20-year bond auction this afternoon yielded strong demand, rounding out a series of solid auctions over the last few days that seemingly point to renewed investor confidence in US fixed income.

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Stocks, Commodities and Crypto-Currency

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BREAKING NEWS

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Stocks, Bonds and Commodities

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DAILY UPDATE: Stocks, Commodities & Crypto-Currency

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🟢 What’s up

  • Tesla climbed another 5.67% on signs that Elon Musk and President Trump are mending fences and on hype around the robotaxi reveal this week.
  • TSMC rose 2.63% after the semiconductor company reported that its revenue in the month of May rose 39.6% year over year.
  • Disney rose 2.65% higher a day after agreeing to purchase Comcast’s stake in streaming service Hulu for $438.7 million. Comcast climbed 2.95%.
  • Solar stocks got a bit of hope after the Wall Street Journal reported that tech companies are lobbying Congress to keep clean energy subsidies in the tax and spending bill. SolarEdge rose 11.81%, and Sunrun gained 7.13%.
  • Insmed exploded 28.65% thanks to strong results for the biopharma company’s new treatment for pulmonary arterial hypertension.
  • Casey’s General Store rose 11.59% after the retailer crushed Wall Street’s profit expectations last quarter and raised its dividend.

What’s down

  • J.M. Smucker tumbled 15.59% on mixed earnings results and a weaker-than-expected fiscal forecast for the snack foods company.
  • McDonald’s lost 1.43% thanks to a double downgrade from Redburn Atlantic analysts, who think the fast food titan’s slowing foot traffic and headwinds from obesity drugs will hurt its growth. That’s the company’s third downgrade in three days.
  • Snap fell just 0.12% after the social media company unveiled its new augmented reality glasses.
  • Calavo Growers plunged 16.26% after the avocado distributor reported much worse quarterly results than Wall Street was expecting.
  • Biopharma stocks Liquidia and United Therapeutics lost 16.87% and 14.32%, respectively, on competitor Insmed’s good news.

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  • Stocks: Markets meandered higher as investors awaited news from ongoing US & China trade negotiations in London. Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick said talks were going well and could continue into tomorrow.
  • Commodities: Oil soared to its highest price since April on hopes that a trade deal between the world’s largest economies could spur demand, but plunged back to earth after the US said oil output will fall next year.
  • Crypto: After just barely holding on last week, Bitcoin has now stayed above $100,000 for 30 days straight for the first time ever—a signal to traders that there’s a new level of support for the crypto king.

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DAILY UPDATE: Stock Markets Close Mixed

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Stocks closed mixed on Monday, with Big Tech names paring losses as the dollar and bond yields climbed amid fading hopes for interest rate cuts ahead of this week’s key consumer inflation reports.

The S&P 500 (^GSPC) settled almost 0.2% higher after falling as much as 1% during the session, while the NASDAQ Composite (^IXIC) fell 0.4%. Shares of Nvidia (NVDA) and Apple (AAPL) closed off their session lows, though most “Magnificent Seven” tech megacaps fell during the session.

The blue-chip Dow Jones Industrial Average (^DJI), which includes fewer tech stocks, rose 0.8%, or more than 350 points.

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Stocks navigated another volatile session after Friday’s plunge, which wiped out all year-to-date gains for Wall Street’s major gauges. A hot December jobs report rattled markets, spurring concern that signs of strength in the economy will encourage the Federal Reserve to keep rates higher for longer.

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COMMODITIES: Futures and Intensity Types

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DEFINITIONS

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Commodities: Commodities are raw materials or primary agricultural products that can be bought or sold on an exchange or market. Examples include grains such as corn, foods such as coffee, and metals such as copper.

Commodity Futures: Agreements to buy or sell a specific amount of a commodity or financial instrument at a particular price on a stipulated future date related to basic raw materials such as precious metals and natural resources.

Commodity Intensity: Commodity intensity refers to commodity usage per unit of economic growth. An emerging, more manufacturing-based economy will usually be more commodity intensive in terms of its growth than will a more developed, service-oriented economy.

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COMMODITIES UTILITY: Gold v. Silver

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Commodities trading means you’re buying and selling raw materials rather than finished products (like a house) or financial assets (like stocks and bonds). Commodities are assets like corn, coffee, lumber and ore. One common form of commodities trading is investing in precious metals, namely gold and silver. As an investment asset, gold and silver have very different properties and uses in a portfolio.

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Gold vs. Silver: Utility

The biggest thing that differentiates precious metal investing from other commodity investing is utility. For most other commodities, investors judge value based on supply and consumer demand. If you want to invest in coffee beans, for example, you can judge prices by how much coffee people are currently drinking, how tastes are changing, etc.

Precious metals are different in that they have relatively low commercial utility. Compared with other metals, here are relatively few consumer or industrial uses for assets like gold and silver.

However, silver does have much more industrial and commercial use than gold. Approximately half of all silver bought and sold on the market is used commercially, with applications ranging from dentistry to electronics. (This is still quite small compared to other metals, which are almost entirely used for production.)

By contrast, gold has very few commercial applications aside from jewelry. This gives investors a basis on which to judge and predict price movements for silver, since you can make decisions based on factors such as industry need and how the global economy is moving.

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DAILY UPDATE: Wall Street Stocks, Dow Dogs, Commodities, Gold, the Fed, Yen and Bitcoin

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If you can believe it, Friday was the final trading day of the first half of 2024. It might be a good time to reflect on your New Year’s resolutions to see how you’re measuring up halfway through the year.

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Dogs of the Dow: The 139-year-old index has never looked more its age, with components Nike, Intel, and Boeing all down more than 30% in 2024. The Dow has gained less than 4% this year.

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But, the S&P 500 gained a sublime 15% in H1, and Nvidia alone was responsible for more than a third of that gain. The maker of AI chips surged ~150% since Jan. 1st to become the most valuable company in the USA at one point.

Going into 2024, investors were expecting the Fed to cut interest rates six times. There hasn’t been a single rate cut yet, but that hasn’t stopped the S&P from notching 31 all-time closing highs, good for the second-best tally of records this century. Stocks have overcome the Fed’s delay thanks to strong earnings, a sturdy economy, and AI fever.

Commodities soar and a currency plummets. Cocoa boomed nearly 85% over shortage concerns. Gold hit a record high last month. The Japanese yen has slumped to a 38-year low against the US dollar.

Bitcoin got a boost from new ETFs, but it’s getting boring.

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On OIL Investing for Physicians?

WHAT IT IS – HOW IT WORKS – WHY?

UPDATE: Hits $90 dollars/barrel

By Staff Reporters

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What it is: Exactly what it sounds like. The North American crude oil benchmark, known as West Texas Intermediate (WTI), is one of three main oil benchmarks used around the globe. While WTI is sourced primarily from Texas, it’s considered one of the highest-quality oils and is often refined into gasoline.

How it works: WTI is the physical commodity behind oil futures contracts traded on the New York Mercantile Exchange. Oil futures = financial instruments that allow investors to buy “abstract oil.” When the futures contract expires, that investment is converted into IRL oil, cashed out, or rolled into a future futures contract.

Why it matters: Oil prices are affected by economic conditions, supply and demand, and geopolitical forces. The coronavirus pandemic caused a historic collapse in prices this spring, and while prices have stabilized, the outlook is shaky.

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On Financial Futures for Physicians

What it is – How it works?

By Tim McIntosh MBA CFP CMP® MPH

Courtesy: http://www.CertifiedMedicalPlanner.org

TMA future is a financial derivative that represents the purchase of a particular investment at a predetermined date. Futures are traded on a wide range of investments (e.g., baskets of stocks, interest rates, currencies and commodities) and are useful tools for controlling the risk of cash flow timing for those that wish to lock in a particular price for a security.

Futures versus Options

Likewise, they also provide some insight as to the expected future price in the market of the security.

The key difference between futures and options is that futures obligate both parties to make the agreed upon transaction, whereas options give the option holder the right, but not the requirement, to make the transaction.

Trades

Futures are typically traded on an organized exchange, such as the Chicago Board of Trade (e.g., interest rate and stock index futures) or the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (e.g., foreign exchange and stock futures). The design of the contract traded on an exchange typically includes a pre-defined contract size and delivery month.

Margin Maintenance

Also, futures transactions generally require maintaining a margin deposit (i.e., a fraction of the trade value held in reserve to help ensure the final settlement at the contract settlement date) and the recognition of gains and losses on a daily basis with movements in contract prices.

Japan and world markets tumbling - dollar stronger

Assessment

The pricing of a futures contract is based upon the price of the underlying security (e.g., the S&P 500 Index price), the opportunity cost of cash (e.g., current borrowing rates) and any distributions expected from the security over the period (e.g., dividends).

MORE: Futures

About the Author

Timothy J. McIntosh is Chief Investment Officer and founder of SIPCO.  As chairman of the firm’s investment committee, he oversees all aspects of major client accounts and serves as lead portfolio manager for the firm’s equity and bond portfolios. Mr. McIntosh was a Professor of Finance at Eckerd College from 1998 to 2008. He is the author of The Bear Market Survival Guide and the The Sector Strategist

Conclusion

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GOLD Investing for Physicians

WHAT IT IS – HOW IT WORKS – WHY?

By Staff Reporters

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What it is: With its use as a commodity tracing back to Ancient Lydian merchants over 2,500 years ago, gold has the most staying power of any indicator on this list. When investors talk about gold prices today, they’re most likely referring to the price per ounce of gold bullion (those gold bars bad guys keep in briefcases).

How it works: Gold is priced in U.S. dollars around the world. Investors can buy physical gold in the form of bullion or coins or go for more intangible gold securities, such as futures, ETF shares, or investments in gold mining companies.

Why it matters: In a 21st century economy where currencies aren’t pegged to the gold standard and credit cards are the medium of exchange, some investors argue gold is a relic. But others turn to the metal for diversification or as a “safe-haven asset”—something to buy during times of geopolitical or economic uncertainty because it holds onto its value.

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Understanding Commodities Investing

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Investing in Raw Materials

[By Staff Writers]

According to Jeff Coons, PhD, CFP™, a commodity is a standardized asset that is typically used as an input for production of one or more products.  Almost any raw material or product that has very consistent characteristics irrespective of the producer (i.e., little to no differentiation between producers) may be considered a commodity.

Commodity Examples:

Examples of commodities that are traded broadly in the financial markets include food products, such as wheat and pork bellies, and metals, such as gold and aluminum.  In most cases, the trading of commodities is done through futures.

A Supply / Demand Hedge

Commodities do not have ongoing cash payments associated with them. Instead, a commodity’s value is a result of supply and demand for the asset as a consumable or as an input for other goods. 

Thus, while some physician-investors use commodity futures as a hedge to offset changes in the value of the commodity between now and the date the commodity is needed by the investor, others will make commodity investments based upon a belief that the supply/demand relationship will change in their favor. 

GOLD: https://medicalexecutivepost.com/2021/12/18/gold-investing/

Assessment

In the latter case, commodities represent a knowledge-based market in which an investor must believe that he/she has a better perspective on the future price of the commodity than other speculators. Consequently, if a physician-investor does not have superior information regarding the future supply and demand for the commodity, then commodity investments become generally less attractive as compared to investments providing ongoing cash payments.

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UPDATE: Value Investing as Oil Gets Cheaper

As Oil Gets Cheaper – What Would Ben Graham Do?

By Vitaliy Katsenelson CFA

In terms of excitement, investing usually rivals watching paint dry. This has not been the case lately.

LINKOil Gets Cheaper – What Would Ben Graham Do?

Risk Management, Liability Insurance, and Asset Protection Strategies for Doctors and Advisors: Best Practices from Leading Consultants and Certified Medical Planners™Comprehensive Financial Planning Strategies for Doctors and Advisors: Best Practices from Leading Consultants and Certified Medical Planners™

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A Value Investing Metaphor for Doctors

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Via a Cats and Dogs Allegory

By Rick MS CFP® ChFC CCIM www.KahlerFinancial.com

Rick Kahler CFP“I’d really like a Maine Coon cat, but they cost around $800. I’m not going to pay that much for a cat.”

The man who said this paid $500 for his purebred Lab. Obviously, he’s willing to spend money on things he enjoys, like hunting dogs. Yet when it comes to paying cold hard cash for a cat, he draws the line.

So, apparently, do a lot of other people. I have quite a few clients who are happy to spend hundreds of dollars for a particular breed of dog. I don’t know of a single client who has ever spent that much for a particular breed of cat.

Utility

Except my wife. Marcia has just begun breeding and selling Balinese cats, worth $1,000 each. She asked me why people are so much more willing to write checks for purebred dogs than they are for cats.

She didn’t buy my argument that dogs are inherently more intelligent, friendly, and worthwhile than cats.

If that isn’t the explanation, what is? Maybe it’s because the basic reason people buy purebred dogs or cats is to get specific looks and personality traits. Most dog breeds are quite distinct; anyone can tell a Great Dane from a Bichon Frise. Yet the only cat many people even recognize as a separate breed is probably the Siamese.

Maybe dogs are seen as more useful. I don’t know of any hunting cats, Seeing Eye cats, or watch cats. Still, that doesn’t explain all those Chihuahuas and tiny terriers that sell for hundreds of bucks a pound.

Value?

The point here is that whether a given commodity is seen as valuable depends on a variety of factors. Utility is one. In early Deadwood, Dakota Territory, an enterprising freighter brought in a load of cats and sold them at a premium to pioneers desperate for mouse and rat control. In that case, cats were more valuable than dogs.

Supply and Demand Economics

Supply and demand is another factor. A house that’s worth $150,000 in Box Elder, South Dakota, might be worth $600,000 in San Francisco, where unarguably more people would like to live. When there’s an over-abundance of cheap goods in the form of unwanted kittens flooding the market, people may be less likely to pay real cash for even purebred cats.

Commodity

Another reason people value one commodity over another is that they have been persuaded to see it as worth more. In Biblical times, frankincense and myrrh were highly prized and worth their weight in gold. Today, one pound of frankincense and myrrh goes for $13.95 on Amazon, while one pound of gold sells for around $24,000.

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gold bars

Gold

Fifteen times more gold is mined each year than platinum, the rarest of all precious metals, yet gold sells for more per ounce. Why? Gold has a long history of being perceived as the world’s most precious metal.

Designer Clothes

For much the same reason, people will pay a hundred bucks or more for a pair of designer blue jeans when they could get essentially the same thing for $19.99 at a discount store. The brand name jeans are seen as more valuable.

Marketing and Perceived Value

The simple reason for this is marketing.

When it comes to perceived value, dogs have benefitted from better marketing than cats. Just think of heroic military dogs, hard-working Seeing Eye dogs, and screen stars like Lassie rescuing people from burning buildings. Even the Taco Bell Chihuahua gets to advertise fast food. Cats get to advertise kitty litter and cat food.

Assessment

Cats just need to find a better advertising agency. They have some work to do if they want to come up with a slogan to top “Man’s Best Friend.”

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The [Gold] Commodity Concern Bubble

Are We Looking At Another Bursting Bubble?

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Financial Advisors [FAs], doctors and all investors know that gold [and some other commodities] are at an all time high!

So, here’s a look at some of the most striking commodity rises over the last decade, and which ones have crashed in 2011. Brought to you by Focus.com

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The “Life Cycle Investment Hypothesis”

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Physicians Returning to Zero?

[By Somnath Basu PhD, MBA] 

How have your investments done over the last three years? If you were to ask doctors, or the myriads of people who are or even pose as professional financial advisors, they would generally say that it would depend on how well your portfolio was diversified. By this jargon, they would mean how your money (in what proportions) was invested among various asset classes such as stocks, bonds, commodities, cash etc. The more it was spread out around various asset classes, the safer they would have been.

To see how safe (or how risky) your portfolio was over the last few years, it’s useful to view how these asset classes themselves fared over this time period. That is what is shown in the next chart where the following asset class performances over the last few years are shown. The chart shows the performances of stocks (S&P 500 shown by the symbol ^GPSC, in red), bonds (symbol IEI, Barclay’s 3-7 Year Treasury Bond index etf, in light green), Commodities (DBC, Powershares etf, in dark green), Long dollar (UUP, Powershares long dollar etf, in orange; this fund allows speculating on the dollar going up against a basket of important currencies; whenever the world financial markets are in turmoil, this index generally goes up as investors around the world seek the “safe haven” status of the dollar.

Alternately, note that this index value will also typically rise when the domestic economy is in a sound condition and both domestic and international investors favor the U.S. financial markets) and the short dollar (UDN, the Powershares inverse of UUP). Note that the “Cash” asset class has been left out and returns on cash (or money market funds) have been close to zero the whole time.

There are a few startling observations from this period. The first part that arrests the eye is how commodities performed over this time period. If your portfolio was heavy in this sector, you had a heck of a ride these last three years. If you had a lot of stocks as well, heck, your ride just got wilder. As can also be seen from the picture, healthy doses of bonds and currencies would have made your ride that much smoother.

On the other hand, what is additionally startling to observe is that we all started this period close to zero returns in the beginning of 2007 (around March 2007) and in June 2010, we are all converging back to zero returns. No matter how you were diversified, you either took a smooth ride (well diversified portfolio) from a zero return environment to a zero return environment or a wilder ride. That is why diversification is so important. Another way to gauge your diversification benefit is to use a two-pronged system.

The first is what I refer to as the “monthly statement effect”. When your monthly financial statements come in, you first observe the current month’s ending balance, then the previous month’s ending balance and then have a great day, a lousy day or an uneventful day. Depending on how good or bad (how volatile the ride) the monthly effect is, it may last for much more than just a day, maybe days. The second piece is your age.

Life Cycle Investment Hypothesis

As you grow older, you ask yourself how wild a ride can you tolerate at this point in your life? Hopefully, as you age, this tolerance level should show significant declines. If it does, you are then joining a rational investment group practicing a “lifecycle-investment hypothesis” style. Finally, did anything do well during this time? Yes, and surprisingly from an asset class whose underlying asset is shaped too like a zero – mother earth and real estate. Having some real estate in your investment basket (another important diversification asset) would not only have smoothed your ride but would have made your financial life so much more pleasurable. Just take a look at this picture below (FRESX, an old Fidelity’s real estate index fund) which says it all.

Assessment

Even in the darkest days of falling real estate markets of 2008, this fund produced a positive return. Of course many other real estate indexes lost their bottoms; thus finding these stable indexes in all asset classes are well worth their salt. That is, if it is time for you to diversify.

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