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Posted on January 27, 2023 by Dr. David Edward Marcinko MBA MEd CMP™
By Staff Reporters
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Q4’s strong GDP numbers are raising hopes that the Fed could actually pull off the tricky “soft landing”—where it knocks down inflation through interest rate hikes without sending economic growth into reverse. The resilient labor market is cooperating: Despite all the headlines about layoffs, jobless claims fell last week to their lowest point since April 2022.
U.S. stocks ended the day in the green as the markets digested a host of economic and earnings data. The economic calendar came in heavy today, as Q4 GDP growth was higher than expected, jobless claims unexpectedly fell, new home sales rose, and durable goods orders jumped, but dipped when stripping out the volatile component of transportation activity. Several Dow members were in focus, as IBM exceeded expectations, though its cash flow performance garnered some scrutiny on the Street, and Dow Inc. missed quarterly estimates. Fellow Dow component Chevron announced an increased dividend and a new $75.0 billion share repurchase plan, while in other news, Tesla topped quarterly estimates and offered an upbeat outlook.
Treasury yields traded mostly higher, and the U.S. dollar advanced, while crude oil prices increased, and gold moved to the downside.
Asian stocks finished mixed in lighter volume as several markets remained closed for holidays, while markets in Europe were higher for the most part, adding to the region’s strong start to the year.
Posted on January 25, 2023 by Dr. David Edward Marcinko MBA MEd CMP™
By Staff Reporters
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Serta Simmons Bedding, the Georgia-based mattress maker owned by private equity firm Advent International, has filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection. The prepackaged bankruptcy filing includes $125 million of debtor-in-possession financing and another $125 million once it exits Chapter 11.
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U.S. equities finished mixed in a lackluster trading session, as Q4 earnings season shifted into a higher gear today. Corporate results from several Dow members were in focus, as 3M missed estimates and reported that it would reduce its global workforce by approximately 2,500 jobs. Verizon Communications and Travelers Companies reported bottom-line results that were in line with expectations, and the former offered some disappointing full-year guidance, while Johnson & Johnson missed estimates amid a decline in revenues citing unfavorable foreign exchange and lower COVID vaccine sales.
Additionally, Lockheed Martin bested forecasts but issued EPS guidance that was lower than anticipated. The economic calendar offered several reports on domestic activity, as manufacturing and services PMIs unexpectedly rose but remained contractionary in January, while manufacturing activity in the Richmond region fell much more than expected.
Treasury rates were lower, and the U.S. dollar dipped, while crude oil prices fell, and gold was higher.
Asian stocks rose although volume remained light as Chinese and South Korean markets were closed for a holiday, while European stocks were mixed amid a host of PMI data across the globe.
Posted on January 24, 2023 by Dr. David Edward Marcinko MBA MEd CMP™
By Staff Reporters
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U.S. stocks were higher, extending the rally from late last week, as Q4 earnings season is set to shift into high gear tomorrow. The markets also prepared for next week’s Fed monetary policy decision, with the Central Bank expected to slow down on their tightening campaign. The economic calendar was light, with the only report being the Leading Economic Index, which indicated a tenth-straight monthly decline and bolstered Fed expectations.
Treasury yields rose, and the U.S. dollar nudged higher, while crude oil prices were mostly unchanged, and gold gained ground. Equity news was relatively light before the week’s earnings storm, as Elliott Investment Management reportedly took a multi-billion dollar stake in Dow member Salesforce, and Evoqua Water Technologies agreed to be acquired by Xylem Inc. for roughly $7.5 billion.
Asian and European stocks finished higher, although trading volume in Asia was lower than usual as several markets were closed for the Lunar New Year holiday.
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Spotifyannounced that it will lay off about 600 employees, or 6% of its workforce, in the latest Big Tech recession hedge. The shakeup could signal a pivot in the company’s podcast strategy. Like most of the other major tech companies making cuts, Spotify cited overly ambitious pandemic growth as the primary cause, and CEO Daniel Ek took “full accountability.” Along with the layoffs, Ek announced a major departure from the audio streamer: Chief Content Officer Dawn Ostroff, who was the driving force behind the company’s $1+ billion podcasting arms race to sign deals with companies like Gimlet and high-profile talent like Barack and Michelle Obama, Prince Harry and Meghan Markle, and Joe Rogan.
Posted on January 23, 2023 by Dr. David Edward Marcinko MBA MEd CMP™
THE MARKETS
By Staff Reporters
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Last week, the S&P 500 dropped 0.7%, snapping a two-week winning streak, though the index rallied 1.9% Friday, thanks to a surge in tech stocks as Fed officials dialed back fears of overly aggressive policy moves. The tech-heavy NASDAQ 100 Index had its best day since November 30th to eke out a 0.7% gain for the week. At the same time, stocks from rate-sensitive industries like financials, real estate, and growth-oriented technology tend to lag during that period.
In this coming week, markets will sort through earnings results from Microsoft Corp., Tesla Inc. and International Business Machines Corp. that are poised to shape the direction of equities more broadly. Also, the Commerce Department will release its first estimate of fourth-quarter US gross domestic product, which is expected to show an acceleration.
Posted on January 21, 2023 by Dr. David Edward Marcinko MBA MEd CMP™
By Staff Reporters
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The S&P 500 rose 1.9%. Despite the gains, the benchmark index still ended with its first weekly loss in the last three. The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 1% and the NASDAQ composite closed 2.7% higher still.
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And so, U.S. equities ended higher for the day and mixed for the week, with the Dow and S&P 500 posting their first weekly declines of the new year.
Equity news remained focused on earnings, as Netflix fell well short of estimates but easily beat the Street’s forecasts for subscribers, and PPG Industries bested expectations. Meanwhile, Alphabet announced it will slash its workforce by 12,000 jobs. Economic news was on the light side today, with the lone report showing an eleventh-straight month-over-month decline in existing home sales.
Treasury yields ended higher, and the U.S. dollar dipped slightly, while crude oil and gold prices rose.
Asian and European stocks saw gains across the board, as investors digested economic data in their respective regions.
Posted on January 20, 2023 by Dr. David Edward Marcinko MBA MEd CMP™
By Staff Reporters
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The number of people seeking unemployment benefits in the U.S. reached a four-month low last week, a sign that employers are holding on to their workers despite the Federal Reserve’s efforts to slow the economy and tamp down inflation. U.S. jobless aid applications for the week ending January14th fell by 15,000 to 190,000, from 205,000 the week before, according to the Labor Department. The four-week moving average of claims, which can even out the week-to-week volatility, declined by 6,500 to 206,000. Jobless claims generally serve as a proxy for layoffs, which have been relatively low since the pandemic wiped out millions of jobs in the spring of 2020. And, the labor market is closely watched by the Federal Reserve, which raised interest rates seven times last year in a bid to slow job growth and bring down stubbornly high inflation.
According to Bloomberg, Netflix Inc. co-founder Reed Hastings is stepping aside as Chief Executive Officer of the company he’s led for more than two decades, leaving the position to his two longtime associates, Ted Sarandos and Greg Peters.
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U.S. stocks were lower, adding to yesterday’s sharp draw downs as investors remain concerned regarding the Fed’s monetary policy decisions and its ultimate impact on the economy. Economic data was mixed, as housing starts came in above estimates, building permits missed forecasts, and jobless claims unexpectedly dropped, while Philadelphia’s manufacturing output improved more than expected but remained contractionary. Q4 earnings season continued to heat up, as Dow member Procter & Gamble matched estimates, while Discover Financial Services topped forecasts but offered cautious guidance about charge offs, and Allstate Corporation issued a Q4 profit warning.
Treasury yields gained modest ground, and the U.S. dollar declined, while crude oil and gold prices rose.
Asian stocks finished mixed and markets in Europe saw widespread losses, trimming some of its strong start to 2023.
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Finally, bankrupt Crypto exchange FTX is looking into the possibility of reviving its business, Chief Executive Officer John Ray just told the Wall Street Journal. Ray, who took over the reins in November, has set up a task force to explore restarting FTX.com, the company’s main international exchange. The CEO also told the Journal that he would look into whether reviving FTX’s international exchange would recover more value for the company’s customers than his team could get from simply liquidating assets or selling the platform. FTX’s native token FTT surged nearly 30% after the report.
Posted on January 19, 2023 by Dr. David Edward Marcinko MBA MEd CMP™
By Staff Reporters
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Amazon just began laying off thousands of more employees as the online retailer and cloud computing giant continues the largest job cuts in its history just months after an initial round of 10,000 job cuts. The Seattle Times and multiple other outlets reported Amazon made the staff reductions in its human resources and stores division, as the company is expected to lay off about an added 8,000 employees. Doug Herrington, Amazon’s worldwide retail chief, said in a memo the company would begin to notify employees by email Wednesday, according to Bloomberg.
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Dow 33,296.96 -1.81%
10-Year 3.363% -1.0 bps
Bitcoin $20,762.78 -2.45%
Kraft Heinz $39.66 -6.31%
*Stock data as of market close, cryptocurrency data as of 3:00am ET.
Markets: Stocks tanked yesterday, with the Dow plunging, the S&P having its worst day since mid-December, and the NASDAQ coming down from a seven-day rally. As investors started heeding recession signals again after new data revealed weak retail sales during the holiday season last month, companies that sell consumer staples were hit especially hard.
Investors processed a slew of mixed economic data, as retail sales fell more than expected, producer price inflation cooled, industrial production dropped more than anticipated, home builder sentiment unexpectedly improved, mortgage applications jumped, and business inventories rose as expected.
Meanwhile, in afternoon action the Fed released its Beige Book, showing little change in activity from its last report. News on the equity front was mixed, as United Airlines topped Q4 estimates, and an optimistic outlook from J.B. Hunt took some of the sting off its earnings miss, while Moderna announced upbeat results from a key trial of its RSV vaccine.
Treasury yields were lower, and the U.S. dollar was nearly unchanged, while crude oil prices lost steam throughout the day to finish lower, and gold traded to the downside.
Asia finished mostly higher, and European markets were mixed, after the Bank of Japan held its monetary policy steady and offered dovish commentary.
Posted on January 18, 2023 by Dr. David Edward Marcinko MBA MEd CMP™
By Staff Reporters
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Microsoft shrank its workforce in July and October 2022 and eliminated open positions and paused hiring in various groups. While technology peers Amazon.com Inc., Meta Platforms Inc. and Salesforce Inc. have announced cuts by the thousands in the past few months, Redmond, Washington-based Microsoft has so far been taking smaller steps to deal with a worsening global economic outlook and the potential for a protracted slowdown in demand for software and services. However, Microsoft could announce wide-sweeping layoffs within the next few days. The possibility of the tech giant laying off a significant part of its workforce was first reported by Sky News and later corroborated by Bloomberg. Sky put the number of the cuts at approximately five percent of the company’s 220,000-person workforce or about 11,000 employees total. Bloomberg said it couldn’t find out the scale of the layoffs but reported they would affect “a number of engineering divisions” and that they’re set to be “significantly larger” than other rounds of job cuts undertaken by Microsoft over the last year.
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Meanwhile, U.S. stocks ended mostly lower with the Dow Jones Industrial Average snapping a four-day win streak after Goldman Sachs reported poor earnings results. The S&P 500 also ended lower, but the NASDAQ Composite eked out a gain as investors focused on whether the early 2023 rally has legs.
The S&P 500 shed 8.12 points, or 0.2%, to end at 3,990.97
The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 391.76 points, or 1.1%, to finish at 33,910.85
The NASDAQ Composite gained 15.96 points, or 0.1%, ending at 11,095.11
Q4 earnings season continued to heat up, with investors sifting through differing results from Dow member Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley, while Travelers Companies warned that its upcoming results will be lower than forecasts. The economic calendar started off a bit slow before beginning to heat up tomorrow, but today a read on New York manufacturing showed an unexpected tumble for January.
Treasury yields were mixed, and the U.S. dollar gained ground, while crude oil prices advanced, and gold traded to the downside.
Asia finished mixed, and markets in Europe also diverged, following a flood of economic data, notably out of China.
Posted on January 14, 2023 by Dr. David Edward Marcinko MBA MEd CMP™
By Staff Reporters
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The December CPI report showed 59% of its components “are now in deflation,” Fundstrat’s Tom Lee said in a Friday note. That’s good news for the stock market, as a drop in inflation will help ease financial conditions. “This is setting up 2023 to be the opposite of 2022, where inflation expectations fall faster than EPS risk,” Lee said.
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Stocks Higher as Q4 Earnings Season Begins U.S. equities ended the day and week higher, as the markets reacted to a host of results from the banking sector to kick off Q4 earnings season. Bank of America, Wells Fargo, and Dow member JPMorgan Chase all bested estimates, but each posted significant increases in provisions for loan losses, while Citigroup fell short of forecasts.
Meanwhile, Dow component UnitedHealth Group beat forecasts and reaffirmed its guidance. News on the economic front was mixed, as a read on import prices surprisingly increased, detracting some from yesterday’s tamer read on consumer prices, while consumer sentiment rose far more than what was projected.
Treasury yields were higher, and the U.S. dollar dipped, while crude oil and gold prices traded to the upside.
Asian and European stocks finished mostly higher, as investors digested inflation reports from the U.S. and abroad.
Posted on January 13, 2023 by Dr. David Edward Marcinko MBA MEd CMP™
By Staff Reporters
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Madison, Wisconsin-based Exact Sciences has become the top holding of Cathie Wood-led Ark Invest’s flagship exchange-traded fund. Ark Innovation ETF (NYSE: ARKK) now holds just under 10 million shares of Exact Sciences with a market value of $600.06 million. The stock currently accounts for 9.37% of the ETF. Exact Sciences has unseated Zoom Video Communications, Inc. (NASDAQ: ZM) as ARKK’s top holding, with the latter now having a weighting of 9.30%. Tesla, Inc. (NASDAQ: TSLA) and Roku, Inc. (NASDAQ: ROKU) are ARKK’s third and fourth-biggest holdings, respectively, with weightings of 6.78% and 6.72%. She just added Coinbase, too!
U.S. equities finished higher in the wake of a consumer prices report that showed inflation cooled last month. However, the gains were tempered, as the core rate, which strips out food and energy costs, rose on a monthly basis.
Treasury yields were noticeably lower, along with the U.S. dollar, while crude oil prices rose, and gold rallied to extend a recent run. Employment figures were also in focus, with jobless claims dipping slightly and coming in better than expected.
News on the equity front surrounded some ancillary corporate results ahead of the start to Q4 earnings season tomorrow, as American Airlines boosted its Q4 guidance, but KB Home missed quarterly expectations.
Asian stocks finished mostly higher, and markets in Europe continued its strong start to 2023 with the U.S. inflation data in focus.
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NEWS FLASH: The Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) announced it just charged Genesis GlobalCapital and Gemini Trust Company “for the unregistered offer and sale of securities to retail investors through the Gemini Earn crypto asset lending program.”
Posted on January 12, 2023 by Dr. David Edward Marcinko MBA MEd CMP™
NASDAQ Winning Streak
By Staff Reporters
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Carta Inc., a financial software company valued at $7.4 billion in August 2021, told employees on Wednesday it was cutting about 10% of the workforce. The job cuts, earlier reported by TechCrunch, are more evidence of the chill that has set in for even the best-funded tech startups. Carta raised $500 million in equity last year, bringing its total fundraising haul to more than $1 billion. Carta makes software to manage equity stakes in private companies, and has been backed by firms including Andreessen Horowitz, Lightspeed Venture Partners and Silver Lake. Prominent venture capitalist Marc Andreessen sits on the company’s board.
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U.S. equities finished higher to add to gains seen this year, with the NASDAQ on a four-day winning streak. However, caution was prevalent, as the markets awaited tomorrow’s December consumer price inflation report, and as Q4 earnings season will kick off on Friday with results from some prominent names from the Financials sector.
Treasury yields were lower and the U.S. dollar was little changed, while crude oil prices and gold were higher.
The economic calendar was relatively light today, but mortgage applications snapped a two-week losing streak. The airline industry was in focus after the FAA temporarily suspended all flights across the U.S. after a computer system failure, and Wells Fargo & Company announced that it will reduce the size of its mortgage lending business.
Asia finished mixed, and Europe saw widespread gains, as the global markets awaited this week’s inflation and earnings data out of the U.S.
Posted on January 11, 2023 by Dr. David Edward Marcinko MBA MEd CMP™
By Staff Reporters
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Rvian Automotive (NASDAQ:RIVN) turned slightly lower in late trading on Tuesday after a report indicated that several key executives left the Illinois-based company. It closed at $16.45. Sources told The Wall Street Journal that the vice president overseeing body engineering and the automaker’s head of supply chain both left Rivian (RIVN) over the last few months. The executives were some of Rivian’s (RIVN) longer-tenured employees.
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Trouble may be brewing in the second half of this year, but there’s a window for a stock-market rally during the first six months of 2023, in the view of Stifel chief equity strategist Barry Bannister. The potential for a rally in equities is based on his expectations for inflation to fall sharply, for the Federal Reserve to pause interest-rate hikes in the second quarter, and for no official recession, as declared by the National Bureau of Economic Research, before midyear, according to a Jan. 9th note from Bannister. So, Ark Invest went shopping on Monday, adding to some of Wood’s hardest-hit stocks. Adobe (NASDAQ: ADBE), Tesla (NASDAQ: TSLA), and Global-e Online (NASDAQ: GLBE) are three of the existing positions that she added yesterday. All of that should add up to a lower real yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury note and to the S&P 500 rising to 4,300 by the end of June, according to the note.
U.S. equities finished higher in a choppy trading session. Concerns over higher interest rates in the future received added attention as investors look to inflation data to be released later this week, courtesy of Thursday’s CPI report. The economic docket was relatively quiet, but a read on small business optimism showed a decline versus the prior month, while wholesale inventories rose in line with estimates.
Equity news was light ahead of Friday’s start to Q4 earnings season, as Bed Bath and Beyond reported a worse-than-expected loss, while Coinbase announced that it would layoff around 20% of its workforce.
Treasury yields rose, and the U.S. dollar was higher, while crude oil and gold prices saw modest increases.
Asian stocks were mixed, and markets in Europe were mostly lower, as focus remained on China’s reopening, and as investors await the CPI report out of the U.S. later this week.
Posted on December 31, 2022 by Dr. David Edward Marcinko MBA MEd CMP™
By Staff Reporters
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Tesla stock is on pace for its worst year on record as trading in 2022 comes to a close. Shares have lost about 65% from the start of the year. CEO Elon Musk has faced pressure from investors over his preoccupation with Twitter.
The S&P 500 closes out dismal year with worst loss since 2008
And, the U.S. dollar surrendered its status as the world’s premier safe haven in Q4. Central banks in Europe and — more recently — Japan applied a more aggressive monetary policy, signaling that they intend to close the gap with higher U.S. yields created by the Federal Reserve. This helped to drive their currencies higher. At the same time, investors in the U.S. were betting that the Fed’s campaign of interest rate rises was drawing nearer to its end. This resulted in the euro rising roughly 8.8% against the dollar, its biggest quarterly gain since 2010, according to Dow Jones Market Data.
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Finally, U.S. equities closed out 2022 in the red, and all three major indexes registered solid losses on a yearly basis. The stock market posted its worst yearly decline since 2008. Trading remained subdued in the final days of the year as volumes continued to be on the lighter side. Equity news remained in short supply, but Southwest Airlines continued to be in the headlines after saying its latest troubles will affect Q4 results.
The economic calendar was also relatively quiet, with today’s lone report showing a surprising rebound in manufacturing activity in the Chicago region.
Treasury yields gained ground, and the U.S. dollar declined, while crude oil prices rose, and gold was slightly higher.
Asian stocks finished out the year mixed in thin trading, and markets in Europe saw widespread losses, with the region posting the worst year since 2018.
Posted on December 7, 2022 by Dr. David Edward Marcinko MBA MEd CMP™
By Staff Reporters
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Real estate prices continued to cool in September—the first time prices declined for three straight months in nearly four years, which is a big deal. The change was especially noticeable out west.
For example, San Francisco and Seattle experienced the largest percentage decrease (2.9%) from August to September, according to the S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Indices. The report, which tracks home price fluctuations, showed “short-term declines and medium-term deceleration” in US housing prices, said Craig Lazarra, S&P Dow Jones Indices managing director.And, Las Vegas, Phoenix, San Diego, and Dallas also saw declines of more than 2%, in contrast to cities like Chicago and New York, where prices fell the least (less than 1%). But even as prices cool, housing overall has grown less affordable since the start of the pandemic—the year-over-year change was 10.6% nationally in September. Pair that with mortgage rate climbs, and you’ve got a market that’s seen a decline in activity for nine straight months. The good news is economists don’t expect things to spiral as far down as they did in ’08.
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U.S. equities tumbled for a second day, as uncertainty regarding how aggressive the Fed will remain was met with increased recession fears.
Yesterday, the economic calendar was light, with the only notable report showing that the trade deficit widened less than expected. The equity front was also fairly quiet, as AutoZone beat earnings and revenue estimates, and shares of Meta Platforms fell after the Wall Street Journal reported that European Union regulators said the company should not require users to agree to personalized ads based on their online activity.
Treasury yields finished lower, and the U.S. dollar gained ground, while gold increased slightly.
Crude oil prices added to yesterday’s drop that came amid new restrictions on Russian oil, and after OPEC+ announced that it would leave its production target unchanged.
Stocks in Asia were mostly lower despite China continuing to ease COVID restrictions in some parts of the country, while European stocks fell amid a host of construction PMI data. The international markets also digested the Reserve Bank of Australia’s decision to hike its interest rate by 25 basis points, and its subsequent statement that was less dovish than expected.
Posted on October 5, 2022 by Dr. David Edward Marcinko MBA MEd CMP™
By Staff Reporters
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The Dow surged 825 points, or 2.8%. The Dow has soared more than 1,500 points in the past two days. It is now back above the key 30,000 milestone and is about 18% off its most recent record high, meaning that is no longer in a bear market.
The S&P 500 and Nasdaq gained 3.1% and 3.3%, respectively. But both of those indexes remain in bear territory, at more than 20% off their all-time highs.
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The UK is scrapping its plan to remove the 45% top rate of income tax, calling it a huge distraction from other priorities. The plan, which the government defended just recently, caused a mini-financial meltdown before the Bank of England stepped in with emergency measures.
Posted on October 3, 2022 by Dr. David Edward Marcinko MBA MEd CMP™
By Staff Reporters
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Stock Market Last Week
The major indexes tried to bounce at various points last week, but ultimately fell solidly for the week, right at bear market lows.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average skidded 2.9% in last week’s stock market trading.
The S&P 500 index also retreated 2.9%. The NASDAQ composite lost 2.7%.
The small-cap Russell 2000 gave up 1.4%. For September, the Dow lost 8.8%, the S&P 500 9.3%, the NASDAQ 10.5% and the Russell 2000 10.1%.
The 10-year Treasury yield rose 11 basis points in the past week to 3.81%. The yield backed off after topping 4% early Wednesday morning, but rebounded from Friday’s lows. The 10-year Treasury yield has risen for nine straight weeks.
U.S. crude oil futures rose 1% to $79.49 a barrel in the past week, even with Friday’s 2.1% loss.
Posted on September 30, 2022 by Dr. David Edward Marcinko MBA MEd CMP™
By Staff Reporters
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Major US indexes plunged after staging a relief rally in the prior session.
UK prime minister Liz Truss stood by proposed tax cuts, despite a chorus of vocal critics.
US Treasury yields hit multi-year highs this week as markets react to growing recession fears.
Stocks recovered from their steepest losses of the day, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average down over 600 points and the NASDAQ lower by nearly 4% at one point in the afternoon. Major indexes still ended deep in the red, though, with the S&P 500 hitting a new closing low for the year.
UK prime minister Liz Truss said that she stood by the government’s plan to cut taxes, which earlier in the week rocked markets and sent the pound falling last week to 37-year lows. Top economists including Paul Krugman, Mohamed El-Erian, and Nouriel Roubini have ripped into the new fiscal policy, warning that it could set UK inflation surging even higher and require more aggressive moves by the central bank, upping the risk of recession.
Posted on September 30, 2022 by Dr. David Edward Marcinko MBA MEd CMP™
Are We Experiencing a Bear Market Relief Rally?
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Maybe yesterday – Not today!
By Staff Reporters
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A bear market relief rally describes a period inside of a bear market in which prices of stocks temporarily increase during, sometimes quite sharply, before returning to new lows. This rise in prices is typically a short-lived increase, sometimes lasting anywhere from days to months, amidst an overall long-term downward trend in the market.
Posted on September 29, 2022 by Dr. David Edward Marcinko MBA MEd CMP™
By Staff Reporters
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Domestic Markets: The Dow and the S&P 500 both snapped six-day losing streaks after the Bank of England stepped in to calm investor fears about its teetering markets. That announcement helped crashing bonds recover in a big way, and the 10-year US Treasury yield (which moves inversely to prices) posted its biggest one-day drop since 2009.
Posted on September 24, 2022 by Dr. David Edward Marcinko MBA MEd CMP™
By Staff Reporters
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U.S. stocks closed sharply lower with the Dow Jones Industrial Average ending at its lowest closing value since November 2020. All three major benchmarks suffered another week of losses as bond yields rose in the wake of the Federal Reserve’s interest rate hike on Wednesday.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average shed 486.27 points, or 1.6%, to close at 29,590.41.
The S&P 500 dropped 64.76 points, or 1.7%, to finish at 3,693.23.
The NASDAQ Composite slid 198.88 points, or 1.8%, to end at 10,867.93.
For the week, the Dow dropped 4% while the S&P 500 slid 4.6% and the NASDAQ tumbled 5.1%, according to Dow Jones Market Data. All three major indexes declined for a second straight week.
Posted on September 23, 2022 by Dr. David Edward Marcinko MBA MEd CMP™
By Staff Reporters
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Equity markets declined for the third straight day in the wake of the U.S. Federal Reserve‘s most recent increase to the benchmark interest rate.
The S&P 500 fell 31.94 points, or 0.84%, to 3,757.99, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average declined by 107.1 points, or 0.35%, to 30,076.68. The NASDAQ Composite dropped 153.39 points, or 1.37%, to 11,066.80.
All three indexes are on pace to end the week in the red, as investors worry continued rate hikes meant to combat high inflation, could result in a recession.
Posted on September 20, 2022 by Dr. David Edward Marcinko MBA MEd CMP™
By Staff Reporters
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U.S. stocks found their solid footing in the final hour of back-and-forth trading after all three major indexes logged their worst week in three months. The S&P 500 climbed about 0.7%, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose nearly 200 points, or 0.6%. The tech-heavy NASDAQ gained 0.8%.
In the bond market, the benchmark U.S. 10-year Treasury touched 3.5%, its highest level since 2011, while the 2-year Treasury note inched toward 4%.
Posted on September 16, 2022 by Dr. David Edward Marcinko MBA MEd CMP™
By Staff Reporters
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Wall Street ended sharply lower today extending its losses in late afternoon trading as a raft of economic data failed to alter the expected course of aggressive tightening by the Federal Reserve amid growing warnings of global recession. The sell-off gathered momentum toward the end of the session, with market leaders including Microsoft Corp, Apple Inc and Amazon.com Inc hitting the tech-laden NASDAQ hardest.
After the bell, FedEx Corp tumbled 14.5% after the package delivery company said its fiscal first-quarter results were hit by global volume softness and it withdrew its financial forecast, saying it expected further deterioration of business conditions. FedEx’s warning sent shares of rival United Parcel Service down 5.7% in extended trade.
Earlier, in the trading session, the benchmark S&P 500 closed a hair above 3,900, seen by many analysts as a key technical support level that has been tested several times over the past two weeks.
Interest rate-sensitive banks helped soften the blue-chip Dow’s decline.
Posted on September 15, 2022 by Dr. David Edward Marcinko MBA MEd CMP™
By Staff Reporters
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The wobbly trading came as investors weighed another snapshot of inflation. Markets have been on edge about the possibility of a recession after a string of interest rate hikes by the Federal Reserve this year as the central bank fights inflation.
The S&P 500 rose 0.3% after wavering between small gains and losses much of the afternoon. The benchmark index was coming off its biggest drop since June 2020, which ended a four-day winning streak.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 0.1% higher, while the Nasdaq composite rose 0.7%. Smaller company stocks also rose, pushing the Russel 2000 to a 0.4% gain.
Bond yields remained relatively stable after leaping higher on Tuesday. The yield on the two-year Treasury rose to 3.79% from 3.75% late Tuesday, when it soared on expectations for more aggressive interest rate hikes by the Federal Reserve.
The yield on the 10-year Treasury, which helps dictate where mortgages and rates for other loans are heading, held steady at 3.41%.
A report on inflation at the wholesale level showed prices are still rising rapidly, with pressures building underneath the surface, even if overall inflation slowed. It echoed a report on inflation at the consumer level Tuesday, which raised expectations for interest-rate hikes and triggered a rout for markets.
Posted on September 14, 2022 by Dr. David Edward Marcinko MBA MEd CMP™
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Stocks nosedived after a surprising inflation report showed prices rose more than expected last month. All three major averages logged their worst day since June 2020. Technology stocks led the way down, with the NASDAQ Composite plunging 5.2%. Tuesday’s session marks the seventh time this year the NASDAQ slid 4% or more, per data from Bespoke Investment Group. No declines of the same size were recorded last year, while 10 were experienced in 2020.
The S&P 500 sank 4.3%, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average erased 1,300 points, or roughly 4%.
The Bureau of Labor Statistics released its Consumer Price Index (CPI) for August early Tuesday, which showed prices rose 8.3% over the prior year and 0.1% over the prior month. Economists had expected an 8.1% increase in inflation over last year and a decline of 0.1% over the prior month.
Posted on September 10, 2022 by Dr. David Edward Marcinko MBA MEd CMP™
By Staff Reporters
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For Friday, the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 377.19 points, or 1.19%, to 32,151.71, the S&P 500 gained 61.18 points, or 1.53%, to 4,067.36 and the NASDAQ Composite added 250.18 points, or 2.11%, to 12,112.31. For the week, the Dow advanced 2.7%, the S&P 500 climbed 3.6% and the NASDAQ gained 4.1%. And, U.S. equity funds recorded outflows of $11.5 billion in the week to Wednesday, their largest outflow in 11 weeks, Bank of America Merrill said today. Volume on U.S. exchanges was 9.91 billion shares, compared with the 10.24 billion average for the full session over the last 20 trading days.
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Commodities: In commodity news, oil traded up 3.1% to $86.16, while gold traded up 0.3% at $1,725.40. Silver traded up 1.1% to $18.65 on Friday while copper rose 0.6% to $3.5490.
Euro zone: European shares were higher today. The Eurozone’s STOXX 600 gained 1.57%, London’s FTSE 100 rose 1.38%, while Spain’s IBEX 35 Index rose 1.52%. The German DAX gained 1.39%, French CAC 40 rose 1.5% and Italy’s FTSE MIB Index gained 1.85%. Industrial production in France dropped by 1.6% from a month ago in July versus a revised 1.2% increase in June, while industrial production in Spain gained by 5.3% year-over-year in July.
Posted on September 4, 2022 by Dr. David Edward Marcinko MBA MEd CMP™
By Staff Reporters
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U.S. stocks saw their lowest close since July following a spectacular intraday reversal triggered by fears of a prolonged disruption to European natural gas supplies, which rattled global markets.
The NASDAQ extended its losing streak to a sixth day cementing its longest string of daily losses since August 2019. The tech-heavy index has fallen roughly 8% in that time.
Meanwhile, the S&P 500 recorded its biggest ‘blown lead’ since April, after rallying during morning trading following a ‘goldilocks’ August jobs report. The S&P 500 closed 42.59 points, or 1.1%, lower at 3,924.26.
The NASDAQ Composite fell 154.26 points, or 1.3%, to 11,630.86.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average retreated 337.98 points, or 1.1%, to 31,318.44.
All three indexes recorded a loss for the third week in a row.
Posted on September 3, 2022 by Dr. David Edward Marcinko MBA MEd CMP™
By Staff Reporters
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Stocks fell sharply surrendering all of the gains from a post-jobs report rally ahead of the Labor Day holiday weekend. The S&P 500 shed 1.1%, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell by the same margin, or about 340 points. The tech-heavy NASDAQ logged the biggest slide of the major averages, capping the session down 1.3%.
The losses came after a rally earlier in the day suggested some investor optimism that a more modest 0.50% interest rate hike could be coming from the Fed later this month after the August jobs report showed job growth moderated last month, as expected.
Posted on September 1, 2022 by Dr. David Edward Marcinko MBA MEd CMP™
By Staff Reporters
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Inflation is starting to “drop like a rock” rather than a feather, leading to outright deflation in some areas of the economy, Fundstrat’s Tom Lee said in a note. A slowdown in rising inflation would be welcome news to investors given that the stock market has sold off 5% since Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s hawkish speech at Jackson Hole last week. Powell reiterated the Fed’s resolve to tame inflation by being aggressive with interest rate hikes and a reduction to its $9 trillion balance sheet. The market currently expects another outsized 75 basis point rate hike from the Fed at its FOMC meeting in late September. If inflation cools and is less “sticky” than most expect, it could change the Fed’s current interest rate hike trajectory, ultimately leading to a faster pivot towards a pause in rate hikes. That would be a boon for risk assets, which have been stymied in recent months by fast rising interest rates.
U.S. stocks ended the month with their fourth straight daily decline cementing the weakest August performance in seven years as worries about aggressive interest rate hikes from the Federal Reserve persist. Adding to pressure were declines in the technology sector, and more specifically chip-makers, after soft forecasts from Seagate and HP Inc. The three main indexes suffered their biggest monthly percentage declines in August since 2015. After hitting a four-month high in mid-August, the S&P 500 has stumbled in recent weeks, dropping more than 7% through the close and falling through several closely watched technical support levels.
Posted on August 31, 2022 by Dr. David Edward Marcinko MBA MEd CMP™
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By Staff Reporters
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According to the USBLS, the number of open Job positions ticked up unexpectedly in July, with around 11.2 million jobs available, slightly higher than June’s revised total of 11 million openings, according to the latest Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS). Economists had expected there to be about 10.5 million jobs added, according to estimates from Refinitiv. The June total was revised up by about 300,000 positions.
Oil closed down almost $6 a barrel with global crude benchmark Brent falling beneath key $100 pricing, after a pro-Tehran television station out of London reported that Iran and the United States have reached a deal to revive a nuclear deal that could legitimately put the Islamic Republic’s oil back on the export market.
Stocks fell again on Wall Street, posting their third loss in a row as traders worry that high interest rates are here to stay for a while. The S&P 500 fell 1.1% bringing its loss in the past three days to 5.1%. The Dow Jones Industrial Average and the NASDAQ also fell. Energy companies fell along with sliding crude oil prices. Technology stocks and industrial companies were also weak. The yield on the 10-year Treasury held steady.
Posted on August 30, 2022 by Dr. David Edward Marcinko MBA MEd CMP™
By Staff Reporters
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Stocks closed broadly lower on Wall Street yesterday, adding to their hefty losses from last week when the Federal Reserve pledged to keep interest rates high as long as it takes to tame inflation.
The S&P 500 fell 0.7% after wavering between small gains and losses. The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 0.6% and the NASDAQ composite lost 1%. Smaller company stocks also fell, pulling the Russell 2000 0.8% lower.
The selling was widespread, with technology and health care stocks among the biggest weights on the market. Only energy and utilities stocks rose.
Posted on August 2, 2022 by Dr. David Edward Marcinko MBA MEd CMP™
By Staff Reporters
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Stocks dipped at the start of August. The S&P 500 gave up an early gain to end down 11.7 points, or 0.3%, to close at 4,118.6. The Dow Jones Industrial Average dipped 46.7 points to 32,708, or 0.1%, and the tech-heavy NASDAQ fell 0.2%. Smaller company stocks also gave back some of their recent gains, nudging the Russell 2000 0.1% lower. Bond yields mostly fell. The yield on the 10-year Treasury, which influences mortgage rates, fell to 2.60% from 2.65% late Friday.
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Jim Rogers is bracing for an epic stock-market crash and a painful recession.
George Soros’ former partner sees the US dollar, energy, and agriculture as solid short-term bets.
Jim Rogers warned a historic stock-market crash is on the horizon, touted energy and agriculture as near-term winners, and cautioned that curbing inflation would require much higher interest rates during a recent Kitco News interview. Rogers is best known as the co-founder of Quantum Fund and Soros Fund Management. The veteran investor predicted a painful recession, ruled out bitcoin succeeding as a currency, and asserted that even a Russia-Ukraine peace deal wouldn’t prevent asset prices from eventually plunging.
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And now, some cautionary advice for workers worried about an economic downturn. “It will be mostly a white-collar recession. And the blue-collar recession will not be in the same places that we saw in the past.” That was William Lee, chief economist at the Milken Institute, a Santa Barbara, Calif.-based think tank, in an interview with MarketWatch, speculating on the nature of America’s next recession. Amid rising expectations among economists of a recession — commonly defined as two consecutive quarters of negative growth — Lee said there’s still a demand for blue-collar workers in service and manufacturing, which will help protect those workers if a recession hits. Even with a low unemployment rate of 3.6%, lower-income workers are always vulnerable in any economic downturn, but adding to comments he made on Bloomberg Radio earlier this week, Lee said there may be exceptions to that rule this time around.
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Finally, there’s an optimistic outlook considering June’s hot inflation reading of 9.1%, the fastest rise in prices in 41 years. It prompted another 75-point rate hike from the central bank last week, bringing the policy rate to 2.25%-2.5%. But there are signs the inflation fight is beginning to show results, Fundstrat said. July’s stock market performance was the strongest since November 2020, and inflation expectations have come down since July’s FOMC meeting.
The economy has entered a technical recession — but it could be just a growth scare, Fundstrat said.
Inflation expectations have flattened, and markets now see the policy rate peaking at 3.28% in January 2023.
It suggests that the stock market may not fall as sharply as some banks have predicted.
The economy entered a technical recession following the second straight quarterly decline for US GDP, but the market could be looking at a growth scare instead of a full blown recession and inflation should start falling sharply beginning with July’s reading, Fundstrat said in a note over the weekend.
Posted on July 28, 2022 by Dr. David Edward Marcinko MBA MEd CMP™
By Staff Reporters
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Markets: Stocks soared yesterday after the Fed said it was hiking interest rates by 75 basis points (its fourth rate hike this year) in order to stamp out inflation. Another rate increase could be on its way this fall, Fed Chair Jerome Powell said, depending on the economic data. Powell also rejected claims that the US was currently in a recession.
The DJIA rallied 400 points as Powell hinted the Fed could slow the pace of rate hikes, and the NASDAQ jumped 4%.
Prices for goods in the U.S. are expected to continue rising through 2023. The Federal Reserve [FOMC] waited too long to respond to early signals of inflation. The central bank is correcting the course by raising its interest rate targets at the fastest pace in more than two decades.
Meta, the company formerly known as Facebook, reported a 1 percent decline in quarterly revenue from the previous year. It was the first time the social media giant’s revenue had fallen since it went public a decade ago, as it confronts increased regulatory scrutiny and a turbulent economy while trying to build a new frontier of digital communication.
Posted on July 27, 2022 by Dr. David Edward Marcinko MBA MEd CMP™
By Staff Reporters
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Microsoft (MSFT) – Get Microsoft Corporation Report posted weaker-than-expected fourth quarter earnings as a surging U.S. dollar blunted the impact of overseas demand for its flagship cloud computing division. Microsoft said revenues for Azure, its flagship cloud division, rose 40% from last year, slowing notably from its prior quarter gains in the mid to high 40-percent range as companies pulled back on digital infrastructure spending and the dollar continued its 2022 climb. Overall group revenues rose 12.4% to $51.87 billion for the three months ending in June, Microsoft’s fiscal fourth quarter, missing analysts’ estimates of a $52.45 billion tally and the company’s owned lowered guidance of between $51.94 billion to $54.74 billion. Microsoft’s bottom line rose 2% to $16.7 billion, as adjusted earnings rose 2.7% from last year to $2.23 per share, well shy of the the Street consensus forecast of $2.29 per share. Microsoft had forecast a range of between $2.24 and $2.32 per share in early June.
And, Google’s revenue growth during the past quarter decelerated to its slowest pace in two years as advertisers reined in their spending amid intensifying fears of an economic recession. The regression reported by Google’s corporate parent, Alphabet, is the latest sign that the tailwinds propelling big technology companies during the pandemic have shifted. The array of new challenges facing the industry has already caused the tech-driven NASDAQ composite index to plummet by 26% so far this year. In Alphabet’s case, revenue during the April-June period totaled $69.7 billion, a 13% increase from the same time last year.
On the other hand, Texas Instruments Inc., the maker of chips used in everything from washing machines to satellites, gave a bullish forecast for the current period, countering concern that a slowing economy is hurting demand for electronics. Third-quarter revenue will be $4.9 billion to $5.3 billion. That compares with the $4.94 billion average estimate from analysts. Profit will be as much as $2.51 a share, the company said, ahead of projections.That helped lift the shares 2.6% in extended trading Tuesday and gave a boost to other chip makers, such as Qualcomm Inc.
Posted on July 23, 2022 by Dr. David Edward Marcinko MBA MEd CMP™
By Staff Reporters
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The stock markets fell after new data showing U.S. manufacturing activity stalled and the service sector’s pandemic recovery has gone into reverse as a result of high inflation and mounting interest rate hikes, feeding concerns that the Federal Reserve’s efforts to cool decades-high price increases may force the economy into a recession. The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 138 points, or 0.4%, to close at 31,899, while the S&P 500 fell 0.9% and the tech-heavy NASDAQ 1.9%; for the week, the indexes ended up 2%, 2.5% and 3%, respectively.
US social-media companies also saw more than $130 billion wiped off their stock-market values after disappointing revenue from Snap Inc. and a lackluster report from Twitter Inc. raised new concerns about the outlook for online advertising. The Snapchat parent plummeted 39%, sinking to its lowest level since March 2020. Meanwhile, Facebook parent Meta Platforms Inc. fell 7.6%, Pinterest Inc dropped more than 13%, and Google owner Alphabet Inc. declined 5.6% in its biggest one-day drop since March 2020. Twitter also reported quarterly results on Friday, though Wall Street remains focused on the company’s legal battle with Tesla CEO Elon Musk, who is attempting to withdraw from a deal to buy the company. The stock rose 0.8% on the day.
Posted on July 22, 2022 by Dr. David Edward Marcinko MBA MEd CMP™
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By Staff Reporters
President Biden tested positive for the coronavirus, raising health concerns for the 79-year-old president and underscoring how the virus remains a persistent, if muted, threat in a country trying to put the pandemic in the past.
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Senator Elizabeth Warren along with 22 more Democratic lawmakers are pushing the IRS to create its own free tax filing service. The bill also aims to allow eligible taxpayers to choose a “return-free option,” providing a pre-populated filing. “The average American spends 13 hours and $240 every year to file their taxes — that’s too much time and too much money,” Warren said in a press release. But some tax professionals say it’s not a realistic plan for the overburdened agency.
A case of polio has been identified in an un-vaccinated adult in Rockland County, according to a news release from the New York State Department of Health. The agency confirmed that the infection was transmitted from someone who received the oral polio vaccine, which has not been administered in the United States since 2000. Officials believe the virus may have originated outside the United States, where the oral vaccine is still administered.
he New York Times opinion columnist Paul Krugman published a mea culpa in column form flat out admitting he was wrong for thinking inflation wouldn’t be that bad. In his piece, titled, “I Was Wrong About Inflation,” the economics professor noted that he was on “Team Relaxed” when it came to fears of inflation and acknowledged that was a “very bad call.” Krugman began by recounting the “intense debate among economists about the likely consequences of the American Rescue Plan, the $1.9 trillion package enacted by a new Democratic president and a (barely) Democratic Congress.” He mentioned how he originally didn’t see the massive government spending bill as that dangerous for the economy. “Some warned that the package would be dangerously inflationary; others were fairly relaxed. I was Team Relaxed. As it turned out, of course, that was a very bad call,” he confessed.
Posted on July 21, 2022 by Dr. David Edward Marcinko MBA MEd CMP™
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By Staff Reporters
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The S&P 500 rose 0.6%, a day after soaring 2.8% for its best day in weeks. The NASDAQ led the market with a 1.6% gain. The Dow Jones Industrial Average added a more modest 0.2%. Smaller company stocks also closed higher. The Russell 2000 rose 28.62 points, or 1.6%, to 1,827.95.
In Europe, stocks slipped amid worries about whether Russia would restrict supplies of natural gas headed for the region after some maintenance on a key pipeline is scheduled to end. Germany’s DAX fell 0.2%, and French stocks dipped 0.3%. The continent is also preparing for the first increase in interest rates by the European Central Bank in 11 years as it tries to beat back inflation.
And, in the letter to investors, Tesla execs reveal the company has sold 75 percent of its Bitcoin holdings. Last year, Tesla made a $1.5 billion investment in bitcoin and announced that it would accept bitcoin as payment. Tesla started accepting Bitcoin in late March, then abruptly reversed itself in May, just 49 days later. In the latest report, Tesla says the value of its remaining “digital assets” is $218 million, which it had reported at around $1.2 billion in previous quarters.
Finally, Microsoft Corp. is eliminating many open jobs, including in its Azure cloud business and its security software unit, as the economy continues to weaken.
Posted on July 19, 2022 by Dr. David Edward Marcinko MBA MEd CMP™
ByStaff Reporters
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During regular trade, the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 215.6 points or 0.7% to 31,072.6, the S&P 500 lost 32.3 points or 0.8% to 3,830.8 and the NASDAQ Composite dipped 92.4 points or 0.8% to 11,360.1.
Among stocks, Goldman Sachs Group Inc (NYSE: GS) added 2.5% after reporting Q2 EPS of $7.73 versus $6.64 expected on revenue of $11.86 billion versus expectations of $10.85 billion. Charles Schwab Corp (NYSE: SCHW) closed 1.5% lower despite reporting Q2 EPS of $0.97, beating expectations of $0.91, while revenue came in at $5.09 billion versus $5.04 billion expected. Meantime, fresh data from the National Association of Home Builders showed that home builder sentiment plunged 12 points to 55, touching the lowest levels since the start of the pandemic.
On the bond markets, United States 10-Year rates were at 2.989%.
Posted on July 16, 2022 by Dr. David Edward Marcinko MBA MEd CMP™
By Staff Reporters
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U.S. stock markets finished sharply higher snapping a five-day losing streak thanks in part to stronger-than-expected retail sales data and a moderation in inflation expectations. But the rally — which marked the best daily performance in three weeks — still wasn’t enough to overcome earlier losses, leaving stocks with a weekly loss. The Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 658.09 points, or 2.2%, to 31,288.26. The S&P 500 advanced 72.78 points, or 1.9%, to 3,863.16. The NASDAQ Composite climbed 201.24 points, or 1.8%, to 11,452.42.
And, Citigroup (NYSE: C) reported better-than-expected quarterly results, sending its shares more than 13% higher. The Wall Street bank was helped by blowout performance in its trading business that offset weakness in investment banking revenue and an announcement that stock buybacks would be suspended. Wells Fargo (NYSE: WFC) also surged 6% despite reporting quarterly results that fell short on both the top and bottom lines as the bank set aside more money to cover potential losses from bad loans.
Banks stocks were also helped by steepening in yield curves as data showing the consumer remains in good shape eased some concerns the economy was headed for a significant slowdown.
Posted on July 15, 2022 by Dr. David Edward Marcinko MBA MEd CMP™
By Staff Reporters
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The Dow Jones Industrial Average shed 0.46%, or 142.62 points, to 30,630.17, while the S&P 500 dipped 0.3% to 3,790.38. The NASDAQ Composite inched 0.03% higher to finish at 11,251.19.
During the Dow’s losing streak, the biggest price decliners were the stocks of Goldman (-$18.82), UnitedHealth Group Inc. (-$18.44), Microsoft Corp. (-$16.48) and Salesforce Inc. (-$15.98); those stocks shaved a combined 460 points off the Dow’s price during the streak.
Posted on July 14, 2022 by Dr. David Edward Marcinko MBA MEd CMP™
By Staff Reporters
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U.S. inflation climbed to new 41-year high of 9.1% in June, as gasoline prices surged. Soaring gasoline prices in June drove the rate of U.S. inflation to 9.1%, a nearly 41-year peak. The CPI jumped 1.3% last month to mark the third time in the last four months it’s topped 1%. Economists polled by The Wall Street Journal had forecast a 1.1% advance.
Because of June’s higher-than-expected inflation jump, it’s likely seniors will receive a 10.5% adjustment to their Social Security checks in early 2023, the Senior Citizens League, an advocacy group for older Americans opined.
Nearly a third of job recruiters said they experience extreme stress on a weekly basis because of their work, according to a December survey by human-resources analytics firm Veris Insights. The research found that 77% of high-ranking recruiters are open to changing jobs, along with 65% of HR professionals — a figure that rose 17 percentage points from September to November last year.
And, the S&P 500 slipped 0.5%, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average shed 210 points, or roughly 0.7%, though both indexes pared losses from sharper declines earlier in the day. The NASDAQ Composite closed down 0.2% but was an outlier for much of the session, trading in the green as technology stocks rebounded.
Finally, US Treasury yields were also in focus with the most dramatic moves happening at the front end of the yield curve. The 10-year stood at 3.04% following the CPI print, with 2-year yields rising as high as 3.17%, further inverting the yield curve. The curve “inverts” when yields on shorter-dated Treasuries rise above those of longer-dated ones and have typically preceded recessions on Wall Street.
Posted on July 13, 2022 by Dr. David Edward Marcinko MBA MEd CMP™
By Staff Reporters
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Morgan Stanley named Eli Gross and Simon Smith as new global co-heads of investment banking, as part of a leadership shakeup at the top of one of Wall Street’s most powerful deals advisory group. The current investment banking heads, Mark Eichorn and Susie Huang were elevated to executive chairs of the division to lead a newly formed group of senior bankers, according to an internal memo seen by Reuters.
The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics will release June data from the closely watched Consumer Price Index (CPI) today, which tracks the prices of a basket of daily goods and services. Investors use the CPI as one way to measure inflation, which has hit a 40-year high this year and forced the Federal Reserve to become increasingly hawkish in terms of monetary policy. While CPI data comes out every month, the reading will be watched more closely than normal, as are the current high levels of inflation.
America has decided the pandemic is over. The corona virus has other ideas. The latestomicron offshoot, BA.5, has quickly become dominant in the United States, and thanks to its elusiveness when encountering the human immune system, is driving a wave of cases across the country. The size of that wave is unclear because most people are testing at home or not testing at all. The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention in the past week has reported a little more than 100,000 new cases a day on average. But infectious-disease experts know that wildly underestimates the true number, which may be as many as a million, said Eric Topol, a professor at Scripps Research who closely tracks pandemic trends. Antibodies from vaccines and previous coronavirus infections offer limited protection against BA.5, leading Topol to call it “the worst version of the virus that we’ve seen.”
Posted on July 6, 2022 by Dr. David Edward Marcinko MBA MEd CMP™
By Staff Reporters
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The Euro lost 10% versus the dollar this year and at $1.0238 EUR=EBS is close to the psychologically crucial parity point it last saw in mid-2002. It also hit new seven-year lows versus the Swiss franc and dropped against the sterling and the yen, but few observers are willing to call a bottom yet. Nomura’s analysts cut their euro/dollar target to $0.95 and said parity could be breached as soon as August. Citibank says a move to parity is “inevitable.” However, Nomura said that $0.95 was not that important historically, noting that the euro fell from $1.17 after its creation to $0.82 in October 2002. Extrapolating backwards using its legacy currencies, the euro traded as weak as $0.6444 in February 1985.
On the New York Mercantile Exchange, benchmark U.S. crude oil for August delivery fell $8.93 to $99.50 a barrel, its first dip below $100 since May 11th. Brent crude for September delivery fell $10.73 to $102.70 a barrel.
Finally, the Dow dropped 129.44 points, or 0.4%, to finish at 30,967.82; it had been down more than 700 points at its lows earlier in the session. The S&P 500 gained 6.06 points, or 0.2%, closing at 3,831.39. And, the NASDAQ Composite advanced 194.39 points, or 1.8%, to finish at 11,322.24.
Posted on June 26, 2022 by Dr. David Edward Marcinko MBA MEd CMP™
By Staff Reporters
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Bitcoin’s energy hunger, which has alarmed environmentalists and consumer advocates concerned about pollution and utility prices, comes from the process of mining new tokens. Bitcoin miners earn new tokens by validating transactions through an inherently energy-inefficient process, using specialized machines to solve complex puzzles. All that computing by all those machines has led to an energy appetite rivaling that of entire nations. Bitcoin’s annualized energy consumption has fallen from about 204 terawatt-hours (TWh) per year on June 11th to around 132 TWh per year on June 23rd. But even though its electricity use has plunged, it’s still very high — roughly equivalent to the amount of electricity Argentina uses in a single year.
Editor’s Note: Incidentally, colleague Mike Burry MD, the Scion Asset Management boss has also compared the crypto boom to the dot-com and housing bubbles, and cautioned that retail buyers of meme stocks and crypto are barreling towards the “mother of all crashes.” – DE Marcinko
Markets: Finally, and according to preliminary data, the S&P 500 gained 116.98 points, or 3.08%, to end at 3,912.71 points, while the NASDAQ Composite gained 380.21 points, or 3.38%, to 11,612.40. The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 839.93 points, or 2.70%, to 31,505.59.
Posted on June 25, 2022 by Dr. David Edward Marcinko MBA MEd CMP™
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W. Buffett’s Berkshire Hathaway purchased roughly 9.5 million shares of Occidental over the past week at a cost of nearly $530 million, according to a new regulatory filing late on Wednesday. Buffett’s investing conglomerate now owns roughly 152 million shares of Occidental—a 16.3% stake worth nearly $8.5 billion that makes Berkshire by far and away the largest shareholder in the energy giant.
Sectors: Sectors like utilities, consumer staples, and real estate helped push the market higher yesterday. Today, however, we could see a lot spicier action. Index provider FTSE Russell is re-balancing its stock benchmarks, which will send investors scrambling to trade an estimated $112 billion just before the market closes. Among other tweaks it’s making, Russell will now label Meta, Netflix, and PayPal as “value” stocks.
Markets:
The Dow Jones Industrial Average DJIA, +2.68% gained 823.32 points, or 2.7%, to close at 31,500.68, its largest daily percentage gain since May 4.
The S&P 500 SPX jumped 116.01 points, or 3.1%, to finish at 3,911.74, its biggest daily percentage gain since May 18, 2020.
The NASDAQ Composite COMP, +3.34% surged 375.43 points, or 3.3%, to end at 11,607.62, its largest daily percentage gain since May 13.
For the week, the Dow booked a 5.4% gain, while the S&P 500 climbed 6.5% and the NASDAQ jumped 7.5%, according to Dow Jones Market Data. The Dow and S&P 500 each saw their biggest weekly gain since late May, while the NASDAQ had its best week since March.
Posted on June 20, 2022 by Dr. David Edward Marcinko MBA MEd CMP™
By Staff Reporters
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CELEBRATE JUNETEENTH
The Markets: Can an extra day of rest change the market’s fortune?
As the Fed has escalated its fight against inflation, the S&P has fallen for 10 weeks out of the last 11. And not even American blue-chip firms have been spared from the carnage.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed below 30,000 for the first time since January 2021.
Posted on June 14, 2022 by Dr. David Edward Marcinko MBA MEd CMP™
By Staff Reporters
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For the domestic markets, the S&P 500 closed down 151 points, or 3.88%. It’s down nearly 22% since January. The Dow was down 876 points (2.79%) and the NASDAQ dropped 530 points (4.68%). And, investors were disappointed to learn that inflation is moving in the wrong direction. U.S. consumer prices surged 8.6% year-over-year in May, to a fresh 40-year high, led by higher prices for energy, food and housing.
For the first time in history, a gallon of regulargasoline now costs $5 on average nationwide, according to AAA, and experts predict gas prices could average $6 a gallon by August.
Moreover, nearly 70% of leading economists expect the US to tumble into a recession as the country grapples with inflation. In a Financial Times poll, the bulk of economists said they expect a recession to be declared in the first half of 2023. The poll comes after US inflation soared to 8.6% in May, outstripping economists’ expectations and piling the pressure on the Fed.
Finally, S&P Global says a 20% decline in the S&P 500 on a closing basis from its previous peak is all it takes to define a bear market. Which means that this bear market is already more than five months old, since the S&P 500 all-time high came on January 3rd, 2022.
Posted on June 13, 2022 by Dr. David Edward Marcinko MBA MEd CMP™
By Staff Reporters
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Blake Lemoine, an engineer for Google’sresponsible AI organization, described an AI system that he has been working on since last fall as sentient, with a perception of, and ability to express thoughts and feelings that was equivalent to a human child. He was promptly suspended.
Earnings Are Under Threat. Companies from Target to Microsoft have warned their results will be lower than expected, while analysts have trimmed earnings forecasts across industries. Investors will get further clarity next month when companies begin reporting results for the second quarter.
The S&P is in a historic slump having fallen in nine out of the past 10 weeks for just the third time since 1980. And cryptocurrencies, which trade 24/7, tumbled following another red-hot inflation report.
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