BOARD CERTIFICATION EXAM STUDY GUIDES Lower Extremity Trauma
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50% tariffs on steel and aluminum went into effect today. To celebrate, President Trump hopped on Truth Social to put China’s President Xi on blast ahead of an expected call between the two heads of state. And, Temu lost 58% of its daily users thanks to tariffs.
The president also pushed Jerome Powell to “LOWER THE RATE” following terrible private sector job numbers. Stocks are seemingly immune to tough trade talk and interest rate rants at this point, but bond yields sank on fears of slower economic growth.
The US dollar slipped, propelling gold higher as investors sought safety.
I am in an unenviable position. The policy coming out of the White House has a significant impact on economics, more than ever before in my career. If I say anything positive about that policy, I’ll be put in the MAGA camp. If I criticize it, I’ll be accused of suffering from Trump derangement syndrome. I am hired by you to make the best investment decisions possible. Rather than see me as engaged in political commentary, I’d ask that you view my remarks as purely analytical.
Let me give you this analogy. I live in Denver. Let’s imagine I am a huge Broncos fan, and the Broncos are playing the Chicago Bears. If I am betting a significant amount of money on this game, I should put my affinity for the Broncos and hatred of the Chicago Bears aside and analyze data and facts. The Broncos are either going to win or lose; my wanting them to win has zero impact on the outcome. The same applies to my analysis here. My motto in life is Seneca’s saying, “Time discovers truth.” I just try to discover it before time does.
When it comes to politics, I also have a significant advantage. I was not born in this country. From a young age, I was brainwashed about communism, not about team Republican versus team Democrat. The failure of the Soviet Union de-brainwashed me fast concerning the virtues of communism and converted me into a believer in free markets.
As a result, I never bought into either party’s ideology, and thus in the last four presidential elections I voted for a Republican, an independent, a Democrat, and wrote in my youngest daughter, Mia Sarah (not in that order). In my articles I have criticized the policies of both Biden (student loan forgiveness, unions) and Trump (Bitcoin reserve).
I remind myself that in times like these you have to be a nuanced thinker. Some of Trump’s policies are terrific, others … not so much (I am being diplomatic here).
Scott Fitzgerald once said “The test of a first-rate intelligence is the ability to hold two opposed ideas in mind at the same time, and still retain the ability to function.” In 2025 we are taking this “first-rate intelligence” test daily.
What will happen to the US dollar? The US dollar will likely continue to get weaker, which is inflationary for the US. Let me start with some easily identifiable reasons:
We have too much debt. We ran 6-7% budget deficits while our economy was growing and unemployment was at record lows. Now we have $36 trillion in debt. Our interest expenses exceed our defense spending, and these costs will continue to climb. If/when we go into recession, we may see something we have not seen in a long time – higher interest rates. Our budget deficits will balloon to between 9–12%, and the debt market, realizing that inflation (i.e., money printing) is inevitable, will say, “Pay up!”
New competition from Bitcoin. President Trump’s approval of Bitcoin as a potential reserve currency is one of the most self-serving and anti-American things I’ve seen any president do. The US dollar is the world’s reserve currency. We still have little competition for that title. China could be a contender, but it is not a democracy and has capital controls. This policy has no upside for America, only downside.
A stronger Europe. Ironically, we may inadvertently create a stronger Europe by threatening to abandon NATO. I don’t want to insult European clients (or my European friends), but the following analogy describes the US-Europe relationship on some level: Europe gradually evolved into a trust fund kid (when it came to security) and the US turned into its sugar daddy. The trust fund kid was incredibly dependent on the sugar daddy. It criticized its parent for being a barbarian and money-driven, but it relied heavily on that parent to protect it from bullies.
President Trump cut off Europe’s allowance by threatening that the US might not protect Europe from Russia. This has forced Europe to spend more money on defense. Outside of Germany (which has little debt), few European economies can afford that. This may force Europe (or at least some European countries) to become more pragmatic – to cut social programs and bureaucracy. If this leads to a stronger Europe both economically and militarily, the euro will be competing with the US dollar. This is a big if.
Our new foreign policy.
When people describe President Trump’s foreign policy as “transactional,” they’re highlighting a fundamental shift in how America engages with the world – one with profound implications for our global standing, national interests, and the US dollar. The shift affects both types of capital – financial and reputational.
Reputational capital isn’t at risk in ‘one-shot’ transactions like house selling. Imagine you’re selling your primary residence and moving elsewhere. Do you disclose every flaw, or let the buyer figure things out? Your incentive is to maximize short-term profits. You’ll likely never meet this buyer again, and therefore there are incentives not to care what they’ll think of you afterward. You’ll be transactional, seeking the highest price possible for your biggest asset. This exemplifies a ‘one-shot’ system where future interactions aren’t expected.
Contrast this with a relationship- and trust-based system. Now imagine you are a homebuilder in a small town. Your suppliers only extend credit if you have a reputation for paying on time. Your employees do quality work only if you treat them fairly. Your buyers tell friends about their experience with you. The incentives naturally create a relational approach. In this trust-based system, incentives skew toward maximizing long-term profits, where reputational capital becomes the glue creating continuity.
Reputational capital radiates predictability – you know how someone will behave based on their history – but operating with low or negative reputational capital is difficult and expensive. People won’t enter long-term contracts with you or will demand external guarantees. Many potential partners will simply refuse to deal with you.
Building reputational capital works like adding pennies to a jar – each good deed incrementally adds to your standing. Yet reputational capital can collapse instantly by removing the jar’s bottom. A single breach of trust doesn’t just remove one penny; it can wipe out your entire balance and plunge you into reputational bankruptcy. The math is brutally asymmetric: good deeds might add a point or two, while bad deeds subtract by factors of 50 or 100.
This doesn’t mean transactions shouldn’t be profitable. If you’re accumulating reputational capital while consistently losing money, you’re probably in the wrong business. Each deal should be evaluated considering both long-term financial and reputational capital.
Individual transactions can sacrifice some profit but cannot afford to lose reputational capital. A “one-shot” transactional approach used in a trust-system environment may provide greater short-term profitability, but if this success comes at the expense of reputational capital, the long-term consequences for America’s global position could be devastating.
This brings us to our current foreign policy.
Relationships between nations are a trust-based system. I’d argue it’s a super-relational system because it’s multigenerational, lasting beyond the life of any one human. Reputational capital is paramount here.
Part of the US’s strength has been the soft power – the reputational capital – it exerted. We had a lot of friends, which helped us to be more effective in dealing with our foes. We keep telling ourselves that America is an “exceptional” nation. This exceptionalism didn’t just come from our financial and military might – it accumulated based on our reputational capital.
Though we don’t always succeed, we are a people who try to do the right thing. Our exceptionalism has been earned through our actions. We are the country that helped rebuild Europe and gave it six decades to repay lend-lease. We toppled communism.
I don’t know the nuances of the Ukraine mineral deal, but initially it had the optics of extortion. Though I think the renegotiated and signed version appears to be fair to both sides, forcing repayment while Ukraine is dodging Russian missiles made the US look transactional.
Actions by President Trump over the last month have undermined our reputation. We are quickly becoming a “one-shot” transactional player in a trust-based environment. Imposing tariffs on Canada on a whim to try to get it to become the 51st state erodes American reputational capital. So does not ruling out America invading Greenland. This puts us on the same moral plane as Russia invading Ukraine.
The conversation about tariffs has many nuances. For instance, I don’t know anyone who opposes reciprocal tariffs – they seem fair and don’t consume any reputational capital. But tariffs that are used as weapons in a trade war in order to annex another country erode reputational capital. Threatening to leave NATO and not protect countries that don’t spend enough on their defense diminishes reputational capital. Maybe the only way to get European countries to spend on defense was to threaten not to defend them – you can agree or disagree with the rationale behind each of Trump’s decisions, but what can’t be argued is that they undermined our reputational capital.
As we lose soft power, our influence will diminish, and thus so will perceptions of our power. The world will start looking at us not from the perspective of the continuity of generations but of presidential cycles. The word of the American president will have an expiration date of the next presidential or mid-term election.
There are two negotiation styles – Warren Buffett’s and Donald Trump’s. Both have their advantages and disadvantages. Buffett will give you one offer and one offer only. Once the deal is agreed to, even just verbally, that is the deal. Critics would say that there is downside to that predictability, as foes know how you are going to respond. Donald Trump’s style is to be unpredictable, which has its own advantages when you deal with foes – it keeps opponents guessing. But it destroys trust with your allies.
In a world of fiat currencies, all currency is a financial and reputational promise. President Trump, with the help of DOGE (and maybe even tariffs) may increase our financial strength. I hope he does, but it will likely come at a very high cost to our reputational capital, and therefore US global influence and the US dollar will continue its decline.
How are we positioned for this?
About half of our portfolio is foreign companies whose sales are not in dollars. They will benefit from a weaker dollar. We also have exposure to oil, which is priced in the US dollar and usually appreciates when the dollar weakens.
A weaker dollar means our imports will become more expensive, which is inflationary. We own many companies with pricing power and also companies that have claims on someone else’s revenues. Take Uber for example: they get about 20% of each ride. If the cost of the ride goes up, so does their dollar take.
Why does President Trump keep pushing crypto?
In July 2019, Trump said the following: “I am not a fan of Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies, which are not money, and whose value is highly volatile and based on thin air.” Five years later he promised to establish the US Crypto Reserve, and in 2025 he did.
What changed? There is no logical reason for an American president to endorse crypto. None. Here is the honest answer: Crypto bros made mega-contributions to his campaign.
To top it off, three days before he took office he issued $TRUMP – a shitcoin. Believe it or not, “shitcoin” is a technical term in the crypto community (any coin other than Bitcoin is called a shitcoin by Bitcoin “maximalists”, folks who believe Bitcoin is the one and only digital currency). The future sitting president literally issued – I don’t want to call it a currency, so I guess shitcoin is the right name – that will at some point decline to zero in value. In other words, he’ll fleece his loyal followers who purchase $TRUMP of billions of dollars.
I previously referenced both reputational capital and soft power. These types of acts by a sitting president subtract from both.
Posted on March 26, 2025 by Dr. David Edward Marcinko MBA MEd CMP™
MEDICAL EXECUTIVE-POST–TODAY’SNEWSLETTERBRIEFING
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Essays, Opinions and Curated News in Health Economics, Investing, Business, Management and Financial Planning for Physician Entrepreneurs and their Savvy Advisors and Consultants
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Donald Trump has officially dropped a stablecoin. It’s called USD1, and it’s pegged 1:1 with the US dollar, according to a statement from his family company World Liberty Financial Inc, (WLFI) today. The company says the token is fully backed by short-term US government treasuries, USD deposits, and other cash equivalents. Every token equals one dollar, no exceptions. WLFI says it built the whole thing to give people a stablecoin they don’t have to second guess.
US stocks rose for a third day in a row despite souring consumer confidence — and as investors weighed whether President Trump would temper his plans for upcoming tariffs.
The benchmark S&P 500 (^GSPC) rose more than 0.1%, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average (^DJI) ticked just above the flatline. The tech-heavy NASDAQ Composite (^IXIC) rose nearly 0.5%, bolstered by a more than 3% jump from Tesla (TSLA).
Posted on November 12, 2024 by Dr. David Edward Marcinko MBA MEd CMP™
MEDICAL EXECUTIVE-POST–TODAY’SNEWSLETTERBRIEFING
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Essays, Opinions and Curated News in Health Economics, Investing, Business, Management and Financial Planning for Physician Entrepreneurs and their Savvy Advisors and Consultants
“Serving Almost One Million Doctors, Financial Advisors and Medical Management Consultants Daily“
A Partner of the Institute of Medical Business Advisors , Inc.
The SPX rose 5.81 points (0.10%) to 6,001.35; the Dow Jones Industrial Average® ($DJI) added 304.14 points (0.69%) to 44,293.13, a new all-time closing high; and the NASDAQ Composite®($COMP) gained 11.99 points (0.06%) to 19,298.76.
The 10-year Treasury note yield (TNX) didn’t trade today due to the Veterans Day holiday.
The CBOE Volatility Index® (VIX) inched up to 15.05.
Posted on June 28, 2024 by Dr. David Edward Marcinko MBA MEd CMP™
MEDICAL EXECUTIVE-POST–TODAY’SNEWSLETTERBRIEFING
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Essays, Opinions and Curated News in Health Economics, Investing, Business, Management and Financial Planning for Physician Entrepreneurs and their Savvy Advisors and Consultants
“Serving Almost One Million Doctors, Financial Advisors and Medical Management Consultants Daily“
A Partner of the Institute of Medical Business Advisors , Inc.
Stat: 40%. That’s how much Tenet Healthcare’s shares jumped in Q1. (Yahoo Finance)
Stat: 12%. This is how much the yen has weakened so far this year against the US dollar, which has people wondering whether the Japanese government will need to intervene. (Bloomberg)
Quote: “We believe the opportunity ahead is significant.”—RJ Scaringe, CEO and co-founder of Rivian, commenting on Volkswagen Group’s plans to invest as much as $5 billion in the EV company. (CNBC)
Walgreens Boots Alliance plummeted 22.16% due to a worse-than-expected earnings report that saw the company slash its full-year guidance.
Hims & Hers dropped 7.19% after Hunter Growth Capital accused the company of using a shady supplier for its new weight-loss drugs.
Levi Strauss crashed 15.27% in a denim downfall for the ages, with second quarter earnings missing expectations after consumers spent less on blue jeans.
Micron Technology slid 7.12% despite beating analyst expectations in the third quarter. Unfortunately, management isn’t as bullish as analysts about the rest of the year.
Chewy fell 0.03% despite a tweet from Roaring Kitty of a cartoon dog—which is apparently all it takes to move markets these days.
The U.S. government’s final gross domestic product (GDP) estimate announced early Thursday included a downward revision to quarterly consumer spending.
Treasury yields could move on the data, especially if the report is “hotter” than expected. Yields fell Thursday following mostly soft U.S. economic readings this morning.
Here’s where the major benchmarks ended:
The S&P 500® index (SPX) rose 4.97 points (0.1%) to 5,482.87; the Dow Jones Industrial Average® ($DJI) rose 36.26 points (0.1%) to 39,164.06; the NASDAQ Composite® ($COMP) rose 53.53 points (0.3%) to 17,858.68.
The 10-year Treasury note yield lost two basis points to 4.29%.
The CBOE Volatility Index® (VIX) fell to 12.29, its lowest close since June 13.
Posted on April 17, 2024 by Dr. David Edward Marcinko MBA MEd CMP™
By Staff Reporters
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If you need a reprieve to prevent the government from raiding your bank account, you’re not alone—the IRS expects 19 million people to file for an extensionthis year. The agency will automatically grant you a six-month extension, although it’s recommended you remit a payment by April 15th if you expect to owe money to avoid interest and penalties. The good news is you probably won’t have to fork over as much as Mark Cuban, who said he is sending the IRS $288 million today and is proud to pay his fair share.
The stock market is coming off its worst week of the year, and the road ahead is no less bumpy. A direct military confrontation between Iran and Israel has investors on edge about a wider regional war that threatens energy supplies. Amid the uncertainty, safe-haven assets are seeing major interest: The US dollar just had its best week in more than 18 months.
Posted on April 12, 2024 by Dr. David Edward Marcinko MBA MEd CMP™
MEDICAL EXECUTIVE-POST–TODAY’SNEWSLETTERBRIEFING
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Essays, Opinions and Curated News in Health Economics, Investing, Business, Management and Financial Planning for Physician Entrepreneurs and their Savvy Advisors and Consultants
“Serving Almost One Million Doctors, Financial Advisors and Medical Management Consultants Daily“
A Partner of the Institute of Medical Business Advisors , Inc.
Costco started selling gold bars to its members last August, and Wells Fargo analysts believe that the product is now bringing in between $100 million and $200 million a month. The retailer doesn’t reveal the price of the 1-ounce bullion to nonmembers online, but it’s estimated to be ~2% above the spot price gold trades at, per CNBC—and that price has soared since Costco got into the gold game. The price of gold has gone up 13% this year and reached record highs as investors pile in amid inflation worries.
The big numbers from the Consumer Price Index data released on Thursday
In March, inflation rose 3.5% from the year before, up from 3.2% in February.
The “core” CPI reading, which excludes volatile food and fuel prices, came in even higher, rising 3.8% on an annual basis. That’s the same as in February, but this time it’s serious.
Half of the increases came from rising gas prices and housing.
After seeing inflation fall by 3% over the course of 2023, Fed officials believed that higher inflation readings in January and February 2024 represented a hiccup in an otherwise downward trajectory. However, with the March reading also coming in hotter than anticipated, analysts say this is more than a fluke. That means hopes for a June interest rate cut are dashed. Even the US Postal Service plans to raise the price of “forever” stamps to $0.73 in July. Get yours now. And the Mexican peso is on an absolute tear, leaving the US dollar behind.
The S&P 500® index (SPX) advanced 38.42 points (0.7%) to 5,199.06; the Dow Jones Industrial Average® ($DJI) lost 2.43 points to 38,459.08; the NASDAQ Composite gained 271.84 points (1.7%) to 16,442.20.
The 10-year Treasury note yield (TNX) rose nearly 2 basis points to 4.578%.
The CBOE Volatility Index® (VIX) fell 0.89 to 14.91.
Chip maker strength lifted the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index (SOX) more than 2% and extended the benchmark’s year-to-date gain to more than 17%. Communications services and transportation shares were also among the strongest sectors. Financial shares were mixed ahead of expected quarterly results Friday from some major banks including JPMorgan Chase (JPM), Citigroup (C), and Wells Fargo (WFC).
Posted on January 24, 2024 by Dr. David Edward Marcinko MBA MEd CMP™
By Staff Reporters
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New York City intends to wipe out more than $2 billion in medical debt for up to 500,000 residents, tackling a top cause of personal bankruptcy, Mayor Eric Adams just announced yesterday.
The city is working with RIP Medical Debt, a nonprofit that buys medical debt in bulk from hospitals and debt collectors for pennies on the dollar. The group targets the debt of people with low incomes or financial hardships and then forgives the amounts.
The S&P 500 index rose 14.17 points (0.3%) to 4,864.60; the Dow Jones Industrial Average lost 96.36 points (0.3%) to 37,905.45; the NASDAQ Composite® (COMP) rose 65.66 points (0.4%) to 15,425.94.
The 10-year Treasury note yield (TNX) gained about 4 basis points to 4.138%.
The CBOE Volatility Index® (VIX) fell 0.64 to 12.55.
Shares of banks and retailers were among the market’s weakest areas Tuesday, while consumer staples were among the upside leaders. Oilfield services companies were also strong, as strong quarterly results from Halliburton (HAL) helped offset a slide in crude oil futures. In other markets, the U.S. dollar index (DXY) hit its strongest level since mid-December, partly reflecting the Bank of Japan’s decision to keep short-term interest rates unchanged.
Merck reported $640 million in sales for its Covid-19 drug, Lagevrio, in Q3 earnings, blowing past analyst expectations of $140.8 million. Covid drug sales have dropped for most big pharma companies this year, with Pfizer lowering its total expected 2023 earnings by about $9 billion due mostly to declining Paxlovid sales. Merck attributed the boost to increasing demand for Lagevrio in Japan.
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California’s largest health system agreed to a $200 million settlement on October 12th following an investigation that found the system has failed to provide timely behavioral health appointments for patients and has canceled more than 100,000 appointments.
Kaiser Permanente, which also runs a health plan, will “undertake a systemic overhaul” of its behavioral health services, Mary Watanabe, director of the Department of Managed Health Care (DMHC), the regulatory body that oversees managed care plans in California, said in a statement. The DMHC began investigating Kaiser in May 2022 after the Oakland-based health system saw a 20% increase in behavioral health patient complaints in 2021, the DMHC said in a statement.
President President Biden spoke Tuesday afternoon on what the White House has called a crackdown on “junk fees” in retirement planning. Such fees chip away at account balances over time, leading to lifetime savings that are up to 20% less than if advisors were held to the highest standards, according to a White House statement.
Under current regulations, advisors who provide advice to workers rolling their 401(k) or related plan into an individual retirement account are generally not considered a fiduciary—that is, a professional who must put clients’ interests ahead of their own. This means that an advisor could steer an investor into, say, an annuity that pays the advisor a big commission, even if it’s not the best option for the investor. In some cases, commission costs and other fees are baked into the product, as opposed to paid outright, and investors don’t realize that they are silently eating into returns over time.
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The Federal Reserve left interest rates unchanged Wednesday as it continues to track inflation and the health of the economy. The central bank voted unanimously to leave its primary interest rate in the range of 5.25% to 5.50%. U.S. interest rates are the highest they’ve been in 23 years. That means interest rates on loans such as mortgages have gone up sharply, and so have payments on Treasury bonds and interest-bearing accounts.
Here is where the major benchmarks ended:
The S&P 500 Index was up 44.06 points (1.1%) at 4,237.86; the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJI) was up 221.71 points (0.7%) at 33,274.58; the NASDAQ Composite was up 210.23 points (1.6%) at 13,061.47.
The 10-year Treasury note yield (TNX) was down about 11 basis points at 4.761%.
CBOE’s Volatility Index (VIX) was down 1.30 at 16.84.
In addition to technology, communication services and utilities were among the strongest sectors Wednesday. Energy shares were under pressure as crude oil futures extended this week’s slump and ended at a two-month low. The U.S. dollar index (DXY) tumbled from an earlier rally to a one-month high, potentially reflecting expectations that domestic interest rates may be near a peak.
Posted on September 26, 2023 by Dr. David Edward Marcinko MBA MEd CMP™
By Staff Reporters
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Bed Bath & Beyond, Christmas Tree Shops, and Tuesday Morning are unable to find a way to continue and moved into Chapter 7 bankruptcy. When that happens, liquidation sales are held, followed by any assets the company owns being sold off to pay off creditors. Bed Bath & Beyond, for example, saw its name, website, and its brand get purchased by the former Overstock.com, which promptly changed its name. So, while all of its stores closed and it’s no longer the same company, Bed Bath & Beyond’s name still exists. That’s, so far, not the case for Tuesday Morning or Christmas Tree Shops, which have liquidated their merchandise, but have not auction off their names and intellectual property.
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Here is where the major benchmarks ended:
The S&P 500 Index was up 17 points (0.4%) at 4,337.44; the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) was up 43 points (0.13%) at 34,006.88; the NASDAQ was up 60 points (0.45%) at 13,271.32.
The 10-year Treasury note yield was up 10 basis points at 4.54%.
CBOE’s Volatility Index (VIX) edged down to 17.11.
Energy was the best-performing sector Monday, despite the slight pullback in oil prices.
The U.S. Dollar Index (DXY), which has been rising since July as investors digested the likelihood of “higher-for-longer” interest rates, pushed to its highest level so far this year.
Posted on August 29, 2023 by Dr. David Edward Marcinko MBA MEd CMP™
By Staff Reporters
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The dollar’s still strong—and recent earnings reports have reflected that, for better or worse.
Around this time last year, earnings took a significant forex hit. Power players like Coca-Cola and Procter & Gamble said the strong dollar hurt profits, while others, like Microsoft, cited currency fluctuations in lowered forecasts.
Back then, the dollar was at a 20-year high. In recent months, the dollar has stayed relatively high as a string of economic data suggested interest rates will stay elevated—at least for now. And after Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell suggested the Fed might have to keep raising rates, the US dollar index climbed to its highest since June 1st.
In any case, foreign exchange rates are yet again cropping up as a talking point in recent earnings reports.
Posted on August 29, 2023 by Dr. David Edward Marcinko MBA MEd CMP™
By Staff Reporters
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Most CFOs think we’ll avoid a recession this year—and that confidence is shared by other members of the C-suite. That’s according to PwC’s August Pulse Survey, which found that only 8% of CFOs predict a recession within the next six months. The survey polled more than 600 C-suite executives from a variety of public and private companies.Among all respondents just 17% strongly agreed there’d be a recession in the next 6 months—a sharp decline from October 2022, when 35% did.Economists, policymakers, and executives “see…the possibility of a soft landing,” Wes Bricker, PwC US vice chair and trust co-leader, said during a media call. “It’s encouraging to see optimism from so many business leaders who participated in our survey.”
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Here is where the major benchmarks ended:
The S&P 500® Index (SPX) was up 27.60 points (0.6%) at 4,433.31; the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) was up 213.08 points (0.6%) at 34,559.98; the NASDAQ Composite was up 114.48 points (0.8%) at 13,705.13.
The 10-year Treasury note yield (TNX) was down about 3 basis points at 4.21%.
CBOE’s Volatility Index (VIX) was down 0.60 at 15.08.
Energy shares were among Monday’s strongest sectors, as crude oil futures rose for a third-straight session and closed at the highest level in over a week. Regional banks and retailers were also higher.
The U.S. dollar index (DXY) eased slightly but remained near a three-month high, reflecting expectations interest rates will stay elevated.
Posted on July 15, 2023 by Dr. David Edward Marcinko MBA MEd CMP™
By Staff Reporters
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The biggest U.S. banks presented a picture of a resilient economy on Friday, with consumers and businesses continuing to spend and borrow even after a lightning-fast rise in interest rates.
JPMorgan Chase’s profit soared 67% in the second quarter from a year earlier and Wells Fargo’s jumped 57%, lifted by the income they earned lending out money at higher rates. Citigroup’s net interest income was a bright spot, though profit fell 36%. All three banks beat analysts’ expectations for profit and revenue.
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Here is where the major benchmarks ended:
The S&P 500 Index was down 4.62 points (0.1%) at 4,505.42, up 2.4% for the week; the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) was up 113.89 points (0.3%) at 34,509.03, up 2.3% for the week; the NASDAQ Composite was down 24.87 points (0.2%) at 14,113.70, up 3.3% for the week.
The 10-year Treasury note yield (TNX) was up about 7 basis points at 3.828%.
CBOE’s Volatility Index (VIX) was down 0.29 at 13.32.
Energy shares were among the weakest performers Friday after crude oil futures retreated nearly 2% from 2½-month highs posted Thursday. Regional banks were also lower despite stronger-than-expected quarterly results from their larger peers.
Health care and Consumer Staples were among the strongest performers. The U.S. dollar gained slightly but remained near a 17-month low against the euro.
Posted on June 30, 2023 by Dr. David Edward Marcinko MBA MEd CMP™
By Staff Reporters
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Big banks powered the Dow higher h of positive economic headlines dropped. Financial institutions aced their Fed “stress test” that measures how they’d hold up during a downturn, Q1 GDP was revised much higher than previously calculated, and the number of Americans filing new unemployment claims fell the most in 20 months.
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Solid economic numbers lifted the S&P 500 and Russell 2000 to nearly two-week highs. So, here is where the major benchmarks ended:
The S&P 500 Index was up 19.58 points (0.5%) at 4,396.44; the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) was up 269.76 points (0.8%) at 34,122.42; the NASDAQ Composite (COMP) was little changed at 13,591.33.
The 10-year Treasury note yield (TNX) was up nearly 13 basis points at 3.838%.
CBOE’s Volatility Index (VIX) was up 0.11 at 13.54.
Financial companies were among the strongest sectors Thursday, with the KBW Regional Banking Index (KRX) rising nearly 2% to its highest level in over a week.
Oilfield services stocks also gained behind strength in crude oil futures, which briefly climbed above $70 a barrel to their highest price in a week. Communications services and technology shares were among the weakest sectors.
The U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) strengthened to its highest level in over two weeks amid expectations for higher interest rates.
Posted on June 26, 2023 by Dr. David Edward Marcinko MBA MEd CMP™
By Staff Reporters
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Last week, the NASDAQ snapped its eight-week winning streak, but it’s still on pace for its best and has nearly erased its total losses from 2022. Over in the media world, everyone (Disney, Warner Bros. Discovery, Paramount Global) is struggling except Netflix.
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But, the U.S. dollar rose to a 15-month high against the ruble this Monday after dramatic weekend events in Russia, which saw an aborted mutiny by heavily armed mercenaries. The dollar index also found some safe-haven support on lingering worries that the protracted monetary tightening cycles from major central banks would further hurt the global economic outlook.
Posted on June 6, 2023 by Dr. David Edward Marcinko MBA MEd CMP™
By Staff Reporters
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The Normandy landings were the landing operations and associated airborne operations on Tuesday, 6th June 1944 of the Allied invasion of Normandy in Operation Overlord during World War II. Code-named Operation Neptune and often referred to as D-Day, it was the largest seaborne invasion in history.
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It has also been 42 years since the CDC first reported on AIDS in the US, describing five Los Angeles-area patients with Pneumocystis jiroveci pneumonia. Today about 1.2 million people in the US live with HIV, the virus that causes AIDS, a condition that’s considered chronic but not necessarily fatal. Still, US leaders want to end the HIV epidemic by 2030.
Advocates are calling for gun violence to be considered as an “adverse childhood experience.”
Chicago health officials still recommend exercising caution over Mpox in the year following a major outbreak.
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With the drama of earnings season, the debt ceiling battle, and last Friday’s crucial jobs report in the rear-view mirror, Wall Street enters the week seeking new catalysts.
The S&P 500 Index (SPX) starts the week on the cusp of a new bull market. A close of 4,292 or above would represent approximately a 20% gain from the 2022 low close of 3,577 posted last October 12. A 20% gain from the bottom represents a new bull market. That said, the SPX is still down about 11% from its all-time high close of 4,796 posted January 3, 2022.
You may recall a strong rally last summer. But the 17% rally that lasted from mid-June 2022 through mid-August 2022 lifted the SPX just 17%—not enough to put it into bull market territory.
The 10-year Treasury note yield ($TNX) was down slightly to 3.68%. The U.S. Dollar Index ($DXY) is up slightly to 104.29. The Cboe Volatility Index® ($VIX) has been in positive territory all day today and was last seen up by 0.27 to 14.87. WTI Crude Oil (/CL) is up to $73.22 per barrel after Saudi Arabia said it would cut production.
Gold prices have traded in a range of $1,953.80 to $1,978.00 and were last seen trading higher by 0.17% to $1,973.00.
Natural Gas prices have traded in a range of $2.184-2.2301 so far today and were last seen trading higher by $0.077 (or + 3.55%) to $2.249/MMBtu.
Posted on June 1, 2023 by Dr. David Edward Marcinko MBA MEd CMP™
By Staff Reporters
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According to ABC News, the US House of Representatives just approved a bill to raise the nation’s debt ceiling while cutting some government spending over the next two years, in a major victory for both the White House and Republican leaders as the country tip-toes closer to a historic default on its bills. The final vote was 314-117. Now, the deal moves to the Senate, where Majority Leader Chuck Schumer has promised to work to pass it quickly.
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Here is where the major benchmarks ended yesterday:
The S&P 500 Index was down 25.69 points (0.6%) at 4179.83; the Dow Jones industrial average was down 134.51 (0.4%) at 32,908.27; the NASDAQ Composite was down 82.14 (0.6%) at 12,935.29.
The 10-year Treasury yield was down about 5 basis points at 3.641%.
CBOE’s Volatility Index was up 0.26 at 17.74.
Regional banks were among the weakest performers Wednesday, while energy stocks also slumped as crude oil futures extended a recent sell-off.
The utilities and healthcare sectors were among the few gainers.
Despite weakness in technology, the NASDAQ still ended with a gain of 5.8% for the month, while the S&P 500 was up 0.3%. The U.S. dollar index rose to a 2½-month high.
Posted on May 31, 2023 by Dr. David Edward Marcinko MBA MEd CMP™
By Staff Reporters
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Workers appear to value paid time off even more than having employer-funded health insurance, a recent study found. The Pew Research Center report called “How Americans view their jobs” found 62% of the 5,900 people surveyed felt it’s “extremely” important to have paid time off for vacations or minor illness, with a further 27% saying it’s “very” important. That’s higher than the 51% who said employer-funded health insurance was extremely important, with 28% saying it’s very important.
And, here is where the major market benchmarks ended yesterday:
The S&P 500 Index was up 0.07 point at 4205.52; the Dow Jones industrial average was down 50.56 (0.2%) at 33,042.78; the NASDAQ Composite was up 41.74 (0.32%) at 13,017.43.
The 10-year Treasury yield was down about 13 basis points at 3.694%.
CBOE’s Volatility Index was little changed at 17.46.
Oilfield services companies and others in energy were among the weakest performers as crude oil futures dropped more than 4% to less than $70 a barrel, reflecting ample supply.
Consumer staples and health care were also weak. The U.S. dollar index was down slightly after rising earlier to its highest level since mid-March.
Posted on April 18, 2023 by Dr. David Edward Marcinko MBA MEd CMP™
By Staff Reporters
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Tax deadline — April 18, 2023 — is today.
Did you know that the probability of being audited by the IRS is generally low, with less than 1% of tax returns receiving a second look? The average chance of being audited is 1 in 333, or 0.3%. But, certain factors can increase the likelihood of being audited, such as earning a lot of money or claiming complex deductions.
For example, the audit rate among filers with income of $10 million or more is 6.66%, while the audit rate for filers with incomes between $25,000 and $500,000 is roughly 0.5%. If selected for an audit, the taxpayer must demonstrate that the information on their tax return is correct
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The following is a round-up of yesterday’s market activity:
The S&P 500 Index was up 13.68 points (0.3%) at 4151.32; the Dow Jones industrial average was up 100.71 (0.3%) at 33,987.18; the NASDAQ Composite was up 34.26 (0.3%) at 12,157.72.
The 10-year Treasury yield was up about 8 basis points at 3.3.60%.
CBOE’s Volatility Index was down 0.13 at 16.94.
Among S&P 500 sectors, real estate stocks led advancers, while financials and industrials were also higher. Small-caps rose, with the Russell 2000 up about 1%. Communication services companies were among the weakest performers, and energy companies slumped as crude oil futures dropped nearly 2%.
The U.S. dollar index strengthened slightly, and equity market volatility remained subdued, with the VIX extending a decline to the lowest levels since late 2021.
Posted on March 17, 2023 by Dr. David Edward Marcinko MBA MEd CMP™
Good morning and Happy Saint Patrick’s Day
By Staff Reporters
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The European Central Bank (ECB) lifted its three policy rates by 50 basis points for the sixth consecutive time, raising the benchmark for borrowing costs in the Euro-zone to 3.0% from 2.5%, the highest level since late 2008, as inflation is seen overshooting its 2% target through 2025.
U.S. stocks blasted higher reversing some recent losses as the banking sector continues to remain in the headlines. First Republic climbed after reports that it could receive up to $30 billion in deposits from some of the nation’s largest banks in an attempt to stabilize the lending firm. In other equity news, Adobe topped quarterly expectations and offered upbeat guidance, while Dollar General offered mixed results.
The economic calendar was also busy today, as jobless claims declined more than anticipated, import prices dipped, housing construction activity rose much more than projected, and manufacturing output in Philadelphia remained solidly in contraction territory.
Treasury yields were higher too and the U.S. dollar dipped, while crude oil prices rose, and gold moved modestly to the downside.
Asia finished mostly lower amid the global banking worries, and markets in Europe rebounded even as the European Central Bank followed through with a 50-basis point rate hike despite the financial market turbulence. Finally, Suisse rallied after getting some capital support from the Swiss National Bank.
Posted on March 14, 2023 by Dr. David Edward Marcinko MBA MEd CMP™
By Staff Reporters
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The average rate on the popular 30-year fixed mortgage dropped to 6.57% according to Mortgage News Daily. If rates continue to drop now, buyers could return to the housing market once again. “This mini banking crisis has to drive a change in consumer behavior in order to have a lasting positive impact on rates. It’s still all about inflation,” said Matthew Graham, chief operating officer at Mortgage News Daily.
U.S. stocks turned mixed to close out the day up, which follows a sharp decline last week amid turmoil in the banking sector. The uneasiness that came after the recent collapses of SVB Financial and Silvergate Capital has been exacerbated by the closure of Signature Bank in New York over the weekend. In M&A news, Pfizer confirmed that it reached an agreement to acquire cancer drug maker Seagen in a transaction valued at about $43 billion.
Treasury yields tumbled, and the U.S. dollar dropped, while crude oil prices saw pressure, and gold rallied. The economic calendar was dormant today, but will heat up tomorrow as the Consumer Price Index (CPI) will be released, beginning the development of the February inflation picture.
Asia finished mixed, with Chinese and Hong Kong markets rising, and European stocks fell amid heightened volatility due to the turbulence in the banking sector.
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Follow-Up: Silvergate, Silicon Valley Bank and Signature Bank collapsed last week. All eyes are now on First Republic Bank.
Posted on March 12, 2023 by Dr. David Edward Marcinko MBA MEd CMP™
By Staff Reporters
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Mar 12, 2023 – Daylight Saving Time Started
When local standard time was about to reach Sunday, March 12, 2023, 2:00:00 am clocks were turned forward 1 hour to Sunday, March 12, 2023, 3:00:00 am local daylight time instead.
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Meanwhile, although markets are still pricing in additional Fed rate hikes at upcoming policy meetings, concerns about the financial sector have helped push down the expected “peak” rate.
The following is a round-up of Friday’s market activity:
The S&P 500 Index ended 56.73 points (1.5%) lower at 3,861.59, the benchmark’s lowest close since Jan. 5; the Dow Jones industrial average fell 345.22 points (1.1%) to 31,909.64; the NASDAQ Composite fell 199.47 points (1.8%) to 11,138.89.
The 10-year Treasury yield was down about 22 basis points at 3.704%.
April WTI crude oil futures were up 84 cents at $76.56 per barrel.
The U.S. Dollar Index was down 0.7% at 104.58.
CBOE’s Volatility Index was up 2.19 points at 24.8.
The Federal Deposit Insurance Corp.’s decision to shutter Silicon Valley Bank came a day after the bank, once a top lender in the tech sector, failed in an attempt to raise new capital. The bank’s collapse weighed heavily on shares of regional banks, though large institutions held up better.
Posted on February 14, 2023 by Dr. David Edward Marcinko MBA MEd CMP™
By Staff Reporters
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U.S. stocks rose ahead of some key January inflation data this week, which will begin with the Consumer Price Index (CPI) report. The economic calendar was dormant today, while Q4 earnings season continued down the back stretch, as Check Point Software Technologies topped estimates and announced an increase to its share buyback plan, while Fidelity National Information Services offered disappointing guidance.
Treasury yields were mixed, and the U.S. dollar was lower, while crude oil prices gained ground, and gold traded to the downside.
Asian stocks finished mostly lower ahead of the U.S. inflation data and as tensions between the U.S. and China remained, though markets in Europe rebounded from last week’s decline.
Posted on February 10, 2023 by Dr. David Edward Marcinko MBA MEd CMP™
By Staff Reporters
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GitHub, owned by Microsoft (NASDAQ:MSFT) is reportedly letting go 10% of its employee base and will become fully remote when its lease ends. The layoffs and cost cutting were laid out in a memo from CEO Thomas Dohmke to his staff, The Information reported, citing a person with knowledge of the situation. Last month, Microsoft (MSFT) said it would let go 10,000 employees in its fiscal second-quarter and take a $1.2B charge related to the layoffs. In conjunction with the layoffs, Microsoft (MSFT) added it would initiate “lease consolidation as we create higher density across our work spaces.”
GitHub competitor GitLab (GTLB) said Thursday morning that the company would lay off 7% of its employees due to a “tough” macroeconomic environment.
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The rally in US stocks could be stunted by a rebounding dollar, according to a Bloomberg market technician.
“We don’t think there’s a ton of downside for the dollar, and if there’s not a lot of downside for the dollar, it’s tough to see a lot of upside for equities,” Jonathan Krinksky said.
US stocks and the dollar have an inverse relationship, so a stronger dollar tends to push stocks down.
US Markets: After another down day for stocks, the major indexes are on track to close out the week in the red. Alphabet has been slumping hard since its AI chatbot underwhelmed in its public debut. In the past two trading sessions, the tech giant has lost a total of $173 billion in market cap.
Posted on January 26, 2023 by Dr. David Edward Marcinko MBA MEd CMP™
By Staff Reporters
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U.S. equities came well off their lows of the day to finish nearly where they began, as the Street sifted through a slew of mixed results with Q4 earnings season kicking into gear.
IOW: A seismic morass.
Dow member Microsoft topped profit projections, but its revenues and guidance disappointed, and Dow Component Boeing Company posted an unexpected loss, and its revenues came in short of forecasts. Elsewhere, AT&T exceeded earnings estimates and topped subscriber expectations, which are overshadowing its lackluster guidance, and Texas Instruments is lower on its outlook. The economic calendar was relatively light today, with the lone report being a third-straight weekly gain for mortgage applications.
Treasury yields were lower, and the U.S. dollar lost ground, while crude oil prices were nearly unchanged, and gold prices were higher.
And, Asia finished mixed, with mainland China and Hong Kong remaining closed for the Lunar New Year holiday, and Europe was mostly lower as investors continued to digest yesterday’s flood of manufacturing and services data.
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Finally, Walgreens Boots Alliance Inc. is weighing a sale of its pharmacy automation business, which could fetch up to $2 billion, according to people familiar with the matter.
Posted on October 26, 2022 by Dr. David Edward Marcinko MBA MEd CMP™
By Staff Reporters
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Stocks Extend Rally as U.S. Dollar and Bond Yields Cool Off
U.S. stocks traded higher as Treasury yields and the U.S. dollar pulled back, while investors digested a host of corporate results.
Earnings reports painted a mixed picture, as Dow member Coca-Cola beat earnings estimates and raised its guidance, while Dow member 3M also announced a positive earnings surprise, but lowered its full-year outlook. Additionally, General Electric missed earnings expectations and lowered guidance, and General Motors topped profit projections. In economic news, home prices declined more than expected in August, consumer confidence decreased, and regional manufacturing fell more than fore-casted.
Crude oil and gold prices gained ground.
Markets in Asia finished mixed as economic uncertainty continued to weigh on conviction, while European stocks finished mostly higher following economic reports and the political situation in the U.K.
Posted on August 3, 2022 by Dr. David Edward Marcinko MBA MEd CMP™
By Staff Reporters
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The dollar sank to a one-month low after data last week showed the US is technically in recession.
It reflects a “sell-the-fact” reaction in markets as investors expect milder Fed rate hikes.
A weak Chinese economy is also affecting the performance of the greenback on demand concerns.
The US dollar index, which measures the greenback’s performance against six other currencies including the Japanese yen, slipped 0.52% to trade at $105.35 – its lowest since July 5th. The safe-haven currency has endured sharp sell-offs in recent weeks, only rising on two days since mid-July as a “sell-the-fact” reaction hits markets over expectations that the Fed will become less aggressive in its monetary policy after data showed US GDP contracted for two straight quarters – the technical definition of a recession.
London-based BP earnings tripled and underlying replacement cost profit, which excludes one-time items and fluctuations in the value of inventories, jumped to $8.45 billion from $2.80 billion in the same period a year earlier. The soaring earnings allowed BP to return billions of dollars to shareholders, with the company boosting its dividend by 10% and announcing that it would buy back $3.5 billion in shares. BP said it expects to increase dividends by about 4% annually through 2025.
Moreover, job openings in the U.S. fell to 10.7 million in June to mark the lowest level since last fall, signaling that a red-hot labor market is cooling off a bit as the economy slows. Job openings slipped from 11.3 million in May. They have dropped three months in a row after peaking in the early spring at a record 11.9 million.The last time job openings dipped below 11 million was in November last year. The number of people who quit jobs in June, meanwhile, only fell slightly to 4.23 million, the Labor Department said Tuesday. Quits topped 4 million one year ago for the first time ever, part of a pandemic-era trend that’s become known as “the great resignation.” Before the pandemic, the number of people quitting jobs averaged fewer than 3 million a month.The high number of people quitting jobs suggests the labor market is still quite robust, though. Most people who quit usually find a better job. Layoff also stayed at historically very low levels. Big picture: The economy is cooling off — and so is a sizzling labor market.
Finally, semi-conductor stocks plunged. For example, shares of Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company (TSMC)—the world’s biggest and most valuable semiconductor manufacturer valued at $440 billion—fell 2.4%. Its Taiwanese peers United Microelectronics and MediaTek dipped 3% and 1.6%, respectively. Meanwhile, U.S. chip-maker Intel stock dropped 1.5% on the same day.
Posted on July 24, 2022 by Dr. David Edward Marcinko MBA MEd CMP™
By Staff Reporters
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The World Health Organization declared the outbreak of monkeypox to be a public health emergency of international concern. “The global monkeypox outbreak represents a public health emergency of international concern,” WHO Director-General Dr. Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus said during a briefing in Geneva. At the virtual press conference, Ghebreyesus also said that the outbreak has spread around the world “rapidly” and that officials understand “too little” about the disease.
And, the U.S. Dollar had an incredible run throughout 2022, appreciating against most major currencies as the world’s central banks continue to combat rising inflation. This year alone, the dollar is up 15% against the Japanese yen, 10% against the British pound, and 5% compared to China’s Renminbi. The Wall Street Journal’s Dollar Index, which measures the dollar against 16 other major currencies, has also had its best first half performance since 2010 this year, rising more than 10% year-to-date. And for the lucky Americans who could find cheap airfare to Europe (and made it through with all their luggage), the dollar even reached equal standing with the euro for the first time in two decades earlier this month.
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